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是什么让你确信自己能完成前人未竟之事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不畏惧失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓创新的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我的一个
One of my
最喜欢的建议之一，想想你老板的老板需要什么。
favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生苦短，你必须志存高远才能成就大事。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新集数每周二在您收听播客的任何平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
您正在收听《交流》节目。
You're listening to the exchange.
以下是今天的节目。
Here's today's show.
斯科特，非常感谢。
Scott, thank you very much.
这对OpenAI来说是成败攸关的时刻，对科技七巨头的交易也同样关键，同时带来席卷近半个国家的这场巨大风暴的最新进展。
It's a make or break for OpenAI, a crucial moment as well for the mag seven trade, and the latest on that massive storm threatening nearly half the country.
欢迎收看《交流》。
Welcome to the exchange.
我是凯莉·埃文斯。
I'm Kelly Evans.
尽管或某种程度上正是因为今天的股价走势，股市实际上正朝着连续第四周中的第三周下跌迈进。
Stocks are actually on track for their third negative week in four despite or in some ways because of today's price action.
目前只有纳斯达克指数是上涨的。
Only the Nasdaq is positive right now.
道琼斯指数下跌了390点。
The Dow's down three ninety.
小型股下跌了近2%，可能是在兑现部分收益。
The small caps are down almost 2%, maybe harvesting some gains.
尽管有此走势，它们本周仍处于上涨区间。
Even with this move, they're still in the green for the week.
至于科技股行情，今天表现参差不齐。
Now as for the tech trade, kind of a mixed bag today.
不过，正如之前提到的，它仍是市场中较为亮眼的板块之一。
As mentioned, though, it is one of the brighter spots of the market.
英伟达股价上涨了1%，据称黄仁勋下周将前往中国，而中国方面显然已要求其顶级科技公司准备订购H200芯片。
NVIDIA shares up a percent, as Jensen Huang is reportedly traveling to China next week, with the country evidently telling its top tech firms to prep their h 200 chip orders.
再看看微软，另一家表现突出的公司，今天上涨近4%，有望迎来近六个月来最佳单日表现。
And take a look at Microsoft, another standout, up nearly 4% today on pace for its best day in nearly six months.
正如你所听到的，英特尔的股价正走向相反方向，因业绩指引疲软而大幅下跌。
Now, as you've heard, shares of Intel are heading the other direction, falling sharply on soft guidance.
今天整个交易时段持续下滑，目前股价已下跌17%。
They're down 17% now as they just keep sinking throughout the session today.
尽管此前在财报前以及过去几个月经历了大幅上涨。
Again, after a huge run up into earnings and over the past several months.
但让我们先从围绕人工智能的叙事转变说起，这正在重新洗牌‘七巨头’和人工智能相关股票。
But let's begin with the shifting narrative around AI, which has been reshuffling the Mag seven and AI trades.
最大的担忧集中在OpenAI及其公司和生态系统上。
The biggest concerns center around OpenAI and the companies and its ecosystem.
今天早上，德意志银行警告称，OpenAI的估值已严重高估，且由于尚未找到可行的商业模式来覆盖其巨额现金消耗，可能面临最大风险。
This morning, Deutsche Bank warns that OpenAI is particularly extended and may be most at risk as it doesn't seem to have found a workable business model yet to cover its reported cash burn.
去年其现金消耗高达90亿美元，今年可能达到170亿美元。
That cash burn was $9,000,000,000 last year and is likely $17,000,000,000 this year.
塞巴斯蒂安·马拉比在最近一篇《纽约时报》文章中更进一步预测，OpenAI将在未来18个月内耗尽资金。
Sebastian Mallaby taking it a step further in a recent New York Times article predicting that OpenAI will run out of money in the next eighteen months.
谷歌的股价表现远超OpenAI相关的公司，比如微软和甲骨文，至少到今天为止是这样。
And Google shares have far outperformed OpenAI names like Microsoft and Oracle, at least until today.
那么，自Gemini发布以来的重新洗牌已经结束了吗？还是说还有更多变化即将来临？
So is the reshuffling since Gemini's launch over, or is there more still to come?
让我们请到今天撰写这份关于OpenAI报告的德意志银行分析师阿德里安·考克斯。
Let's bring in Deutsche Bank's Adrian Cox, who wrote that note on OpenAI today.
阿德里安，我不太想过于狭隘地看待今天的市场波动，但我们的投资者已经消化了自Gemini发布以来这几个月的巨大调整。
And Adrian, I'm what do you I mean, not to be too myopic about the action today, but our investors, now they've digested this massive reset over the past few months since Gemini's launch.
这是否实际上为一些更好的数据点铺平了道路？
Has that cleared the way actually for, you know, for some maybe better data points?
还是说这对OpenAI来说是如此具有存在性威胁，以至于他们将面临巨大困难？
Or do you think this is so existential for OpenAI, it's gonna be really hard for them?
我认为你说得对。
Well, I think you're right.
这实际上将在某种程度上成为 disillusion 的一年，不仅对 OpenAI，也对整个 AI 行业。
This is actually, in a way, going to be a year of disillusion not only for OpenAI, but for the rest of the AI trade.
但这未必是坏事。
And that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
当任何技术开始真正应用于现实生活时，能够真正理解它的优势和面临的挑战，这可能是好事。
It's probably a good thing that as any technology is becoming applied in real life, then you begin to really understand what are the strengths of it and where the challenges lie.
对于 OpenAI，我认为你正看到这样一个问题：公司在最初几年里独占鳌头，但随后其他公司开始推出相似甚至更优的模型。
For OpenAI, I think you're really seeing the problems that you have when you're a company which absolutely itself for the first couple of years, but then began to be followed up by other companies producing similar or in some cases superior models.
比如谷歌，它已经拥有巨大的分发优势，每天有海量用户在使用它的产品，而无需专门下载某个应用。
And if you're Google, for example, then you have the advantage of massive distribution already, a huge audience of, of users using your product absolutely every single day, not needing to go into a special app for it.
你还能在每次搜索时收集海量数据。
You also have enormous data that you're gathering every time you do a search.
此外，可能最重要的是，你拥有巨大的数据中心能力，每年投入数百亿美元，其他超大规模云服务商也是如此。
And on top of that, and possibly the most important thing, you have enormous capacity with data centers, you're investing in tens of billions of dollars every year, and this is also the case with the other hyperscalers.
与它们不同，OpenAI 必须不断外出融资，以支付其在数据中心进行训练的全部费用，这给它带来了真正的挑战。
So unlike them, OpenAI has to go out and raise funding for all of the, training that it's doing in data centers, which presents it with the real challenge.
因此你可以理解，为什么它不得不寻找不同的商业模式。
And so you can see why it is having to look around for different business models.
是的。
Yeah.
它拥有八亿活跃用户，抱歉，是每周用户，但其订阅用户只占其中一小部分。
And it has 800,000,000 daily, sorry, weekly users, but its subscriptions are only a small part of that.
事实上，我们收集的德意志银行数据显示，在欧洲，这些订阅量自去年年中以来基本停滞不前。
And in fact, Deutsche Bank data that we've gathered, in Europe shows that those subscriptions have more or less flatlined since the middle of last year.
因此，他们必须找到其他方式来产生收入。
So they have to find some other way of generating revenue.
他们似乎正在四处摸索这些方式。
And they seem to be kind of, casting around for those ways.
慢风险投资的普通合伙人萨姆·莱森也加入了我们。
Slow ventures general partner, Sam Lesson, is also with us.
萨姆，欢迎加入我们的讨论。
Sam, welcome to the conversation.
那您会如何继续推进这个叙事呢？
And how would you spin this narrative forward?
我很好奇，您是否觉得大家都在讨论这个问题，对吧？
I'm curious if you I'm sure everyone is talking about this, right?
OpenAI 正在转向寻找其他类型商业模式和杠杆的方式。
The way that OpenAI is pivoting to find other kinds of business models and levers that can pull.
我认为更有趣的一点是，七巨头过去各自都有稳固的护城河。
I think the the broadly more interesting point is that the Mag seven used to all have their lovely little moats.
你知道，Yardeni 研究公司曾谈到过这一点。
You know, Yardeni Research talked about this.
你知道，苹果有手机，谷歌有搜索，而 Meta 曾经是社交，现在是 AI，它们现在彼此竞争激烈，还把 ChatGPT 也引入了竞争。
You know, Apple had the handset and Google had search and, you know, Meta was and now AI, they're all at each other's throats, and introducing ChatGPT as a competitor as well.
所以您是否也认为，一方的收益是以另一方的损失为代价的？
So do you see it that way that the gains of one come at the expense of another?
我认为您需要区分一下，AI 到底是什么，以及我们现在所处的位置。
Well, I think you have to break out, you know, what AI is and kind of where we are.
我想说第一点，记住，今天的OpenAI是我所说的叙事性资产，对吧？
I'd say one, remember, OpenAI today is what I call a narrative asset, right?
这是一则故事。
It's a story.
这是一个很棒的故事，但它的愿景远远超出了现实，对吧？
It's a great story, but it's a story where the vision has far outpaced reality, right?
如果你回溯几年，我们曾讨论过，谁先实现AGI，谁就是最终的赢家，仅此而已。
And if you kind of unwind a few years, we were talking about whoever gets to AGI first is the ultimately winner, full stop.
结果发现，其实并不是这样，别人是可以追上来的。
It turns out that actually, no, like people can catch up.
模型的竞争还没有结束。
The model competition isn't over.
有各种不同的观点。
Lots of different takes.
我个人认为，实际上AI对所有现有巨头都有好处。
You know, my personal view is that actually AI is great for all the incumbents.
这对谷歌来说很好。
It's great for Google.
这对Meta来说也很棒。
It's great for Meta.
他们不需要长期竞争。
They don't have to compete long term.
他们实际上拥有不同的商业模式，而所有这些模式都受益于人工智能。
They actually have distinct business models, all of which are levered by AI.
有趣的战场是新的领域，也就是那些全新的、各方争相争夺的领域。
The interesting battleground is kind of the new surface, so the net new where there is kind of a feeding frenzy of who can try to win.
OpenAI正在努力，从分发角度来看，他们在大多数其他领域都处于明显劣势，但曾经一度掌控了叙事。
OpenAI is trying to, they're seriously outgunned from a distribution perspective in most other areas, but they did for a while own the narrative.
今年的问题是，他们还能否继续主导这一叙事？
The question this year is can they continue to own a narrative?
随着关于企业可行性的真实证据不断积累，市场和世界还会支持这一叙事多少？
And how much will the market and the world support that narrative as actual evidence piles up about the viability of businesses?
看看自去年夏天以来市场发生了什么变化，当然，你可以追溯到更早，但尤其是从十一月开始。
Look at what's happened in the market since you I mean, could go back to last summer, but especially since November.
大多数这些公司，比如甲骨文，自九月以来市值已经下跌了约十亿美元。
Most of these Oracle is down, like, half 1,000,000,000 in market caps since September.
微软自去年夏天以来，市值已经蒸发了约六千亿美元。
Microsoft has shed, I think, 600,000,000,000 in market caps since last summer.
我的意思是，这两家公司曾经是受OpenAI崛起推动最明显的公司。
I mean, these are two of the names that were most levered to the rise of OpenAI.
而如今，谷歌出现了，它是MAG七巨头中过去一年表现最出色的公司。
And here comes Google, which was the MAG seven name that by far has done the best over the past year.
它的股价上涨了约70%，而且甚至不需要依赖英伟达的芯片就能做到这一点。
It's up, like, 70%, and it doesn't even need NVIDIA's chips in order to do this.
所以，我想这就是我的观点，你说得对。
So I I guess that's my point, and you're right.
也许AI只是为所有这些公司增添了一层光环而已。
Maybe AI just is a sheen that helps all of them.
但目前看来，Gemini的崛起正在以牺牲许多与ChatGPT相关公司的估值为代价。
But right now, there certainly seems to be Gemini's rise is coming at the expense of the valuations of a lot of those involved with Chatuchu.
我
I
我同意这一点，但对我来说，我要记住的是，我一直认为AI领域的赢家是现有巨头。
will agree with that, but I think for me, I think the thing to keep in mind is my narrative on AI has always been the incumbents win.
对吧？
Right?
嗯。
Mhmm.
而OpenAI的叙事是，不，这太具有颠覆性了，现有巨头不会赢，ChatGPT会击倒谷歌，将诞生一个全新的经济体系。
And the open AI trade was no, no, actually this is so disruptive, the incumbents won't win, and ChatGPT will be able to take down Google, and there's gonna be a whole new economy.
我不认同这种观点，我从来就不认同。
I don't, I just don't buy that, I never have.
我认为你将看到的是，AI并不是一种颠覆性创新，而是一种延伸性创新，这意味着如果谷歌能把事情理顺——而他们正在这么做——谷歌就会大获全胜。
I think what you're gonna see is that this is not, AI is an extending innovation, That means Google crushes it if they get their stuff in line, which they are.
这意味着像Meta这样的人会大获成功，因为他们的广告模式与AI完美契合。
That means people like Meta crush it because their ads model is perfectly aligned with AI.
而其他所有方面都将是一场艰苦的拉锯战。
And everything else is going to be a slog and a battle.
这场变革中会有一些赢家。
There will be some winners out of this.
这并不意味着一切都不会改变。
It's not like nothing will change at all.
但你知道，我认为我们现在看到的是现实逐渐浮现，人们开始正视现实，而非继续沉溺于‘通用人工智能即将来临’的叙事故事中。
But, you know, I think what we're seeing right now is reality kind of coming in and people starting to look at reality versus the narrative story of AGI is coming in.
谁先到达终点，谁就是最终的赢家，其他人则归零。
Whoever gets there first is the ultimate winner and everyone else goes to zero.
阿德里安，我喜欢你所说的这一点，我想把话题再抛回给你。
What I like about what you're saying, Adrian, I'll I'll put it back to you.
这正是人们一直在给我发消息提到的：所谓的‘聪明钱’现在都押在萨姆·奥特曼身上，直到下周。意思是，自从Gemini崛起、ChatGPT估值被重估之后，下周的财报对七巨头来说，是否是一个证明自己的机会？你看苹果的困境等等，他们是否依然有值得讲述的故事，从长远来看，AI对他们而言仍然是增值、增强的，无论你怎么说。
This is what as people have been messaging me, the the quote unquote smart money is is with Sam Hottest One into next week, meaning now that we've had this massive valuation reset from Gemini and away from Chez UBT, is is earnings next week's, Adrian, a chance for the Mag seven to prove, you know, look at Apple's struggles and all that, that they still have a good story to tell and that in the long run, AI is still additive, enhancing, whatever you wanna say for them.
你知道，除了可能谷歌之外，其他所有公司的预期都已经大幅下调了，就在下周。
You know, they certainly the expectations have certainly been pulled in, for everyone except maybe Google for next week.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这是对的。
I think that's right.
正如我所说，确实出现了一定程度的幻灭。
I mean, there has been, as I say, a certain disillusionment.
我认为人们也开始意识到市场中的错位现象，这意味着尽管需求巨大，但还存在一系列供应瓶颈，这些瓶颈现在才开始显现，无论是硬盘和内存，还是能源，或是建设数据中心所需的人才短缺。
I think that people are also coming to terms with the dislocation in the markets, which means that even though there is massive demand out there, there is also a whole host of supply constraints that are only now beginning to emerge whether that's, HP and memory or whether it's, energy or whether it's, capacity with, with talent, just to build data centers.
所以，这是一个问题。
So, you know, that is one issue.
此外，还存在信任问题，整个市场都必须面对这个问题，因为无论你多么成功，如果叙事开始转向反对AI，那么政治因素就可能介入——不仅仅是地缘政治，还包括国内政治，从而遏制一些发展，无论你是超大规模云服务商，还是OpenAI。
And then, also, there's just an issue of distrust as well, which the entire market is gonna have to grapple with because however successful you are, if there begins and, you know, it sounds we're talking very, compellingly about narratives here.
如果叙事开始转向反对AI，那么政治因素就可能介入——不仅仅是地缘政治，还包括国内政治，从而遏制一些发展，无论你是超大规模云服务商，还是OpenAI。
If the narrative begins to go against AI, then there is always the chance that politics can get involved, not just geopolitics, but just domestic politics, and put the brakes on some of the developments that can happen, whether you're a hyperscaler or whether you're open AI.
嗯，我确实认为，萨姆，如果这种说法成为主流，人们已经对谷歌赢了感到愤怒了。
Well, I certainly think, you know, Sam, if if this becomes too much of the narrative, know, people are already mad that Google's winning.
他们会觉得：得了吧。
They're like, come on.
你知道，我们一直在打反垄断官司。
You know, we've been fighting, you know, antitrust.
你人呢？
Where are you?
他们就是垄断。
They're monopolistic.
他们不喜欢这样的想法：赢家是谷歌，而谷歌在2015年就是七巨头中市值最高的。
They don't like the idea that the winner, they Google had the biggest market cap of the Mag seven in 2015.
那时候，他们还属于Kramer词典里的FANG公司。
They were still FANG, in Kramer's Lexicon back then.
但到了2025年，他们又几乎重新拥有了最大的市值。
And in 2025, they're back to having almost the biggest market cap again.
所以这可能会让人觉得不公平，并引发反弹。
So it might feel unfair and it might generate pushback.
但再说一遍，我想从交易的角度来谈谈这个问题，萨姆，你觉得人们最终会说，是的，你可以持有MAG七巨头的交易吗？
But again, I just wanna kinda bring this to, kind of the trading point of view, which is, Sam, then do you think people will ultimately say, yeah, you can own the MAG seven trade?
这会成为市场上最大的争议之一，而听起来你似乎支持继续坚持这一交易。
It's going to be because this has been one of the biggest debates in the market, and it sounds like you're taking the side of kinda stick with that trade.
一切都会好起来的。
It's gonna be fine.
我的观点其实已经说了两年了，对吧？
I mean, that's been my talking point for two years, right?
事实上，由于‘赢家通吃’和AGI竞赛的叙事如此强大，对很多人来说极具说服力，你已经看到这种脱节——许多奇怪的事情基于理论而非现实发生了。
And the reality is because the narrative around winner take all, AGI race has been so strong and a very compelling narrative to a lot of people, you've seen this dislocation where a lot of strange things have happened based on theory, not reality.
我认为，当人们开始冷静下来，思考盈利能力和增长，以及谁真正掌控哪些领域时，你会看到趋势重新回归到MAG七巨头的叙事。
I think as people start being sober and thinking about profitability and growth and kind of who owns what lanes, you're going to see things shift back towards the mag seven narrative.
当然，一些奇怪的事情仍会在边缘发生。
And then, look, there'll be some weird things that happen on the side.
这并不是说一切都不会改变。
Like, it's not like nothing will change.
我认为人工智能很重要。
And I do think AI is important.
我认为监管阻止不了这列火车。
I don't think regulation is stopping this train.
问题只是谁会从中致富，谁会从中成长。
The question is just who gets rich off of it and who grows off of it.
我只是不认为有什么游戏能颠覆现有巨头。
And I just don't there games that are disruptive to the incumbents.
人工智能实际上并不是那种游戏。
I I AI is actually not one of those games.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
在这种情况下，这似乎确实如此。
It in this case, that does appear wait.
我的意思是，看看 Gemini 这件事。
I mean, look at you know, with the Gemini thing.
想为弱者加油。
Wanna cheer for the underdog.
你知道的？
You know?
他们
They're
不，我不太清楚那个聊天。
not I don't know the chat.
我不太清楚，我认为 OpenAI 的有趣之处在于，他们在叙事上为自己设定了方向，完全是讲故事。
I don't know the I think the interesting thing with OpenAI is they set themselves up narrative wise, right, just all storytelling
是的。
Yeah.
不是作为弱者。
As not the underdog.
对吧？
Right?
所以他们在很多方面并不具备作为弱者的优势。
So they don't have the benefit of being like an underdog player in a lot of ways.
但与此同时，如果他们试图这样做，我认为他们一直朝着变得‘太大而不能倒’的方向发展，这同样是一种策略。
But at the same time, like if they tried to, I think they've been on a trajectory of trying to get too big to fail, which is again, it's a strategy.
这只是一种未必能颠覆世界秩序并有效获取人工智能最大话语权的策略。
It's just not necessarily a strategy that is going to kind of topple the world order and effectively get the most leverage from AI.
是的，说得很好，各位，谢谢。
Yeah, well said, gentlemen, thanks.
我们今天就先到这里。
We'll leave it there for now today.
感谢大家。
Appreciate it.
萨姆·莱森和阿德里安·科克斯将讨论我们近期看到的这种轮动，我们将在下周的财报中关注MAG七巨头和内存股。
Sam Lesson, Adrian Cox on some of this rotation we've been seeing, and we'll get the MAG seven and the memory stocks in next week's results.
现在正是澄清这一点的绝佳时机。
Perfect timing to kind of shed some light on this.
Meta、微软、苹果、闪迪、西部数据，它们都将在近期发布财报。
Meta, Microsoft, Apple, SanDisk, Western Digital, they're all on deck.
本周，内存类股票的表现比MAG七巨头高出约六个百分点。
The memory names have been outperforming the Mag seven by about six points this week.
那么，哪一组更值得买入呢？
So which group is the better buy?
让我们请教维多利亚·格林，G平方财富管理首席投资官兼CNBC特约评论员。
Let's ask Victoria Green, G squared private wealth CIO and a CNBC contributor.
维多利亚，我们先聊聊苹果，它虽然没在这场讨论中被提及，但已经连续八周下跌。
Victoria, let's start with Apple, which wasn't part of that conversation, but has been down for eight weeks in a row.
今年晚些时候，随着消费者大量采购，这些高企的内存价格可能对苹果造成影响。
Some of these high memory prices and others could hurt them down the road this year as consumers bulk.
你对这些股票怎么处理？
What do you do with the shares here?
我实际上非常看好苹果。
I actually still like Apple a ton.
我认为它是一个优秀的科技和人工智能投资标的，而无需涉足超大规模云服务商和巨额债务。
I think it's a great tech and AI play without getting into the hyperscalers and massive debt load.
我认为他们在第四季度卖出了大量手机。
And I think they sold a ton of phones in Q4.
所以我们正在关注这一点。
And so we're looking at that.
他们的服务增长和手机销量增长。
Their services growth, their phones growth.
他们可以继续提价。
They can continue to increase prices.
我认为这是他们持续进行的一种非常有弹性的方式。
I think that's a very elastic thing that they continue to do.
我的意思是，我们都清楚iPhone 17 Pro的售价，这将继续推动利润率，并在一定程度上抵消内存芯片价格上涨的影响。
I mean, we all know what the iPhone 17 pro sells for, and so that's going to continue to drive margins and kind of offset the memory chip price increase.
是的，我们aware了。
Yes, we're aware.
我认为内存成本会略微上涨，但我觉得苹果也会很好地抵消这一影响，同时他们的服务业务会变得越来越重要。
I think that's going to, the memory is going to get a little bit more expensive, but I think Apple is gonna do a very good job of offsetting that as well as their services continues to become more and more important.
他们的可穿戴设备也变得更加重要。
Their wearables are more important.
对。
Yes.
尽管一切依然围绕着至关重要的iPhone展开，但这是一家业务多元化的公司。
It's still all about the all important iPhone, but it's a well diversified company.
我喜欢他们与谷歌的合作方式。
And I love what they're doing with Google.
好的。
Yeah.
你知道，如果你自己造不好，那就去买，他们终于承认Siri已经远远落后了。
You know, if you can't build it well, buy it, and they finally acknowledge that Siri is is falling well behind.
他们的AI战略搞砸了。
They had a bad AI strategy.
他们直接撕掉了创可贴，我真的很期待他们在2026年能做出什么。
They ripped the band aid off, and I'm I'm really excited about what they might do in '26.
再说说那些在AI领域占主导地位的巨头，它们正是过去十年里掌控iPhone搜索的两家公司，现在它们也将掌控iPhone上的Siri。
Again, speaking of the incumbents winning in AI, these were literally the two that owned the search on the iPhone trade of the past decade, and now they're gonna own Siri on the iPhone as well.
我们回头再聊内存股，但先快速说说微软。
We'll circle back to the memory names, but quickly on Microsoft.
过去三个月它的股价下跌了10%，但今天似乎有了一些起色。
It's been down 10% in the past three months, but showing some life today.
你对这只股票怎么看？
What do you do with this one?
是的。
Yeah.
我一直在减仓，直接卖掉了，现在选择观望。
I've been trimming it, and I just sell, and I'm sitting out.
你知道，如果你没持有它，我不确定你会在财报前买入。
You know, if you don't own it, I'm not sure I'd buy it pre earnings.
我非常担心Azure的增长会因供应限制而受阻。
I'm very concerned about Azure growth being crimped because of the supply constraints.
所以这并不一定是需求问题。
So it's not necessarily demand.
我认为他们仍然会面临来自Anthropic和OpenAI合作的巨大云服务商需求，但供应限制对他们来说是个大问题，由于这些巨额交易，他们的资本支出可能会持续增长甚至爆炸式增长。
I think they're still going to have massive hyperscaler demand because of their deals with Anthropic and OpenAI, but the supply constraint is a really big thing for them and their CapEx may continue to expand and explode because of those huge deals.
对吧？
Right?
所以你有这些巨额交易。
So you have these massive deals.
你必须进行大规模的扩建。
You have to do these huge build outs.
这将对资本支出造成打击。
That's gonna hurt CapEx.
而如今投资者最厌倦的一件事，就是资本支出增加对这些股票造成的拖累。
And if there's one thing investors are getting very tired of right now is increased CapEx drag on these stocks.
所以对我来说，如果你没有持有，我可能会选择观望。
So for me, I'm if you don't own it, I might sit it out.
如果你已经持有，我们一直在小幅减仓，锁定一些利润。
If you own it, we've been trimming it back a little bit, taking some profits.
你觉得像Meta这样的公司，如果它们削减资本支出，你会买入吗？
And you think with Meta, which also reports that if they walk back on capex, then you would be a buyer?
当然了。
Oh, absolutely.
我希望扎克伯格能意识到这一点。
I'm hoping I'm hoping Zuckerberg sees the light here.
我们最近从那里得到了一些好消息。
We've had some good news coming out of that.
对吧？
Right?
现实实验室的预算削减了10%。
Reality Labs got cut back 10%.
如果我们能更理性地看待资本支出，Meta就是一只绝佳的股票，但这一切最终都取决于资本支出的具体数字。
We're thinking if they're a little more reasonable on CapEx, Meta's a wonderful stock, so but it's all gonna come down to what is that CapEx number.
因为如果他宣称这仍然是人工智能军备竞赛，且超出预期，那就会有问题。
Because if he comes out being like it's still an AI arms rate, they come out above expectations.
我觉得股价只会受到打击。
I think the stock's just gonna get hurt.
我们对Meta维持持有评级。
We're a hold here on Meta.
我觉得它是一家优质公司。
I think it's quality name.
他们在广告和社交媒体领域占据主导地位，很可能因精准的社交媒体投放推高广告价格，但Llama正在落后。
They they they dominate the ads and social media, likely driving higher ad prices because of the targeted social media, but llama's falling behind.
你知道吧？
You know?
所以他们也有这个。
So they also have that.
由于Llama的表现远不如Gemini和其他竞争对手，他们在纯AI搜索领域正逐渐失去优势。
They're losing a little bit of ground for pure play AI search because llama's really not doing with Gemini and and everybody else's.
是的。
Yeah.
这周早些时候，我们听到了布伦特·希尔对这一领域的看涨观点。
We heard a bull case for that earlier this week from Brent Thill.
他认为在企业端，Llama可能会取得一些进展。
He thinks maybe on the enterprise side, it'll make some more inroads.
那内存厂商呢？
But what about the memory names?
闪迪和美光即将发布财报。
SanDisk and Micron report.
他们有被英特尔化的风险吗？
Are they at risk of getting inteled?
我们正在被英特尔化。
We're getting inteled.
他们确实有，但对我来说，我现在对这些公司持乐观态度，因为如果你看看它们的所有支出，我认为硬件限制将继续推动这里的定价，而且我认为它们的透明度都很高。
They are, but for me, I'm bullish on these right now because if you look at all of their spending, I I think you're gonna see that the hardware constraints are are what's gonna continue to drive pricing here, and I think a lot of them have great transparency.
它们的需求非常大。
They're in huge demand.
数据中心的建设，我知道有一些说法认为这在放缓，但它们的需求仍在大幅增长，我认为西部数据大约80%的收入来自超大规模客户，所以我认为这是一个非常稳定的收入来源。
The data center build out, I know there's some narrative that that's slowing down, but there's still a huge ramp up for them and I think it's like Western Digital sells about 80% of the revenues to the hyperscalers and so for me I say this is a very secure revenue source.
即使AI是当前的叙事，可能会面临一些逆风，它们仍在继续建设。
They're still building out even if AI is this narrative and it's maybe gonna have some headwinds.
建设确实存在，而且渗透到所有领域。
The build out is there and it goes in everything.
它存在于服务器中。
It's in the it's in the servers.
它也在你的智能手机里。
It's it's in your smartphones.
它也在你的电脑里。
It's in your computers.
你知道，我们接触的一切，所有正在升级的东西。
Know, everything we're touching, everything that's getting upgraded.
如果你仔细看，觉得软件行业不太吸引你，那么硬件行业这些新名字可能正是你该关注的，而且它们的走势比芯片和半导体还要强劲一些。
If you look at it and say, I don't really love the software trade, the hardware trade, these new names might be where you want to be, and they're they're kind of running a little bit more than the than the chips and the semis.
也许你该更多关注一下内存。
Maybe you want to look a little more at memory.
硬件就是新的软件。
Hardware is the new software.
这才是重点。
That is the headline.
这真是天翻地覆的变化。
What a sea change that is.
维多利亚，一如既往地感谢你。
Victoria, thanks as always.
非常感谢。
Appreciate it.
谢谢，凯莉。
Thanks, Kelly.
维多利亚·格林，来自G Squared。
Victoria Green with G Squared.
西部数据的首席执行官欧文·托德也将于下周独家做客《交易所》节目，讨论这些季度业绩。
Western Digital CEO Irving Todd will also be joining us exclusively on The Exchange next week to discuss these quarterly results.
我们将在下周五下午一点，讨论人工智能的扩展以及它对我们再次面临的某些短缺意味着什么。
We'll talk about AI expansion and what it all means for some of the shortages we're experiencing again next Friday at one p.
下午。
M.
接下来，超过一亿两千万的美国人正准备应对席卷十几个州的特大冬季风暴。
Coming up, 200,000,000 Americans across more than a dozen states are preparing for a massive winter storm.
阿拉斯加航空首席执行官本·米诺库奇独家加入我们，分享他的看法。
Alaska Air CEO Ben Minocucci joins us exclusively with some of his thoughts.
顺便说一下，他们的股价今天因强劲的收益上涨了6%。
Their shares, by the way, are up 6% today on strong earnings.
此外，我们的市场嘉宾表示，要抵制错失恐惧症，专注于价值。
Plus, our market guest says fight the FOMO and focus on value.
这对半导体和
What does that mean for semis and
对
for
我们刚才提到的软件股意味着什么？
software names we were just describing?
我们接下来将审视科技股内部日益扩大的分化。
We'll look at the growing divide within tech stocks ahead.
这是CNBC的《交易所》节目。
This is the exchange on CNBC.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以许多不同的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，就是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，而且
Life is short, and
要想成就大事，就必须有远大的志向。
you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新集每周二上线，您在任何播客平台都能收听。
New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.
天然气价格以波动剧烈著称，但本周仍有望创下有记录以来的最大周涨幅，自周一以来飙升了70%，因为全国一半地区正准备迎接本周末来袭的特大暴雪和冰冻天气。
Natural gas prices, which are famously volatile, are still set to see their biggest weekly gain on record, spiking 70% pretty much since Monday as half the country prepares for a massive snow and ice storm that's set to hit this weekend.
阿库韦瑟公司的伯尼·雷诺在这里带来最新情况，你知道的，不妨多聊聊新泽西北部的情况，伯尼，给我们做个报告。
AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno is here with the latest, and, you know, feel free to dwell, overly on kinda Northern New Jersey, Bernie, and giving your report.
欢迎。
Welcome.
新泽西北部地区预计降雪量为六到十二英寸，凯莉。
Solid six to 12 inches, Northern New Jersey, Kelly.
有些地方我认为降雪会超过一英尺，就连纽约市也有可能达到一英尺。
Some spots, I think, will get over a foot, and even New York City has the potential of the foot.
至于东北部地区，这只是这场风暴影响的广大区域的一部分，总计有两亿人受影响。阿库韦瑟公司认为，由于冻雨的影响，周日到周一的航空旅行将完全停摆，而本周中期仍将持续受到波及。
But as far as the Northeast, just part of the large area this storm is gonna impact, 200,000,000 impacted, and AccuWeather believes air travel will be completely shut down sat Sunday into Monday with the lingering impacts in the middle part of the week because of this freezing rain.
数百万人可能在南部各州乃至从南部大平原到东北部的广大地区连续数日，甚至数周断电。
Hundreds of thousands may be left in the dark for days, if not weeks, across the Southern tier of The United States and the heavy snow from the Southern Plains all the way toward the Northeast.
事实上，这将是许多人五年来见过的最大一次冰冻和暴风雪天气，而且寒冷范围广泛、强度剧烈。
In fact, this will be the biggest ice and snowstorm that many have seen in about five years, and then you have the cold, widespread and in intense.
看看明天的最高气温吧。
Just take a look at high temperatures tomorrow.
这些粉红色和紫色区域的气温 barely above zero，覆盖了如此广阔的地区，可能导致全国电网瘫痪，包括德克萨斯州——尽管自2021年以来他们已取得诸多改进。
These areas in the pinks and purples barely above zero, and it's a large part of the country big enough that this could compromise the power grid across the country, including in Texas, and they made all those advances since 2021.
我们来谈谈冰冻情况。
Let's talk about the ice.
冰冻今晚就开始，将持续到明天，影响德克萨斯州直至中南部地区，你看到的深粉色区域，从达拉斯到什里夫波特，冰层可能非常严重。
It begins tonight, and it continues into tomorrow across Texas and all the way into the Mid South where you see that dark pink shading, Dallas toward Shreveport, the icing could be extensive.
然后，周六晚到周日，冰冻将蔓延至中大西洋地区，包括卡罗来纳州、罗利、夏洛特至哥伦比亚，以及亚特兰大。
Then Saturday night into Sunday, it goes across the Mid Atlantic and includes the Carolinas, Raleigh, Charlotte toward Columbia, and Atlanta.
那里可能积聚近四分之一英寸的冰层，这同样会彻底瘫痪当地的交通。
You could have almost a quarter of an inch of ice, and that will shut down travel there as well.
降雪范围广泛。
The snow widespread.
我们从周六开始，周六夜间影响南部平原地区，降雪量将达到12到30厘米。
We begin Saturday and the Saturday night in the Southern Plains, and this is gonna impact I 35, I 46 to 12 inches.
从威奇托、俄克拉荷马城到肯塔基，以及田纳西州北部，包括纳什维尔，降雪量为7.5到15厘米。
Wichita, Oklahoma City toward Kentucky, and in the northern parts of Tennessee, three to six inches, including Nashville.
这将在周六和周六夜间发生。
That'll be Saturday, Saturday night.
然后从周六夜间到周日，影响中大西洋和东北地区，深蓝色区域预计降雪量为30到45厘米。
And then Saturday night into Sunday across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, this dark blue shading is where we believe there's 12 to 18 inches.
我们预测AccuWeather局部最大降雪量可达76厘米。
We have an AccuWeather local storm max of 30 inches.
在这一蓝色区域内，宾夕法尼亚州中南部和新英格兰部分地区，降雪量很容易超过60厘米。
Within this blue area, South Central Pennsylvania, in the parts of New England, we could easily see over two feet of snow.
以下是具体的降雪量预测。
Some specific snow totals for you.
华盛顿特区、巴尔的摩、费城：降雪量为六到十英寸。
Washington, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, six to 10 inches.
大雪可能转为冻雨，但也可能全是雪。
Heavy snow going over to sleet, but it could be all snow.
如果是这样，积雪可能达到一英尺。
If it is, it could be a foot.
纽约市和波士顿的积雪也可能达到一英尺。
We could see a foot in New York City, Boston as well.
顺便说一下，降雪速率每小时一到两英寸。
And by the way, snowfall totals, one to two inches per hour.
这将导致所有道路出现严重问题。
That's gonna cause major problems on all the roadways.
谢谢你的分享，伯尼。
We appreciate that, Bernie.
我希望雪是松软的，而不是结冰的。
I'm hoping it's more powdery than icy.
你知道的，得让人们出去玩雪。
You know, gotta get people out there playing in the snow.
但我们马上要采访阿拉斯加航空的首席执行官，到时候会和他聊聊这个话题。
But never we're about speak with Alaska Airlines CEO, so we'll talk to him about this.
谢谢你，伯尼。
Thank you, Bernie.
伯尼·雷纳。
Bernie Rayna.
我们非常感谢。
We appreciate it.
关于旅行影响的更多信息，我们请来阿拉斯加航空的首席执行官本·米尼库奇，他刚刚发布了财报，公司股价今天表现不错。
For more on the travel implications, let's bring in the CEO of Alaska Air, Ben Minicucci, also on the heels of their earnings, has the shares up nicely today.
他将与菲尔·阿博一起加入我们。
He joins us alongside Phil Abeau.
欢迎两位。
Welcome to both of you.
菲尔，你先开始。
Phil, kick it off.
谢谢，凯莉。
Thank you, Kelly.
本，你昨天盘后发布了财报。
Ben, you look, you had your earnings after the bell yesterday.
你超过了市场预期。
You beat the street.
但你对2026年的指引给出了一个较宽的区间，我认为是每股3.50到6.50美元。
But your guidance for twenty twenty six, you said it at a pretty wide parameter, I think between $3.50 and $6.50 a share.
你对第一季度以及全年的需求前景怎么看？
What's your outlook in terms of demand in the first quarter and then for the rest of the year?
嗨。
Hey.
很高兴能和你们一起，菲尔和凯莉。
Good to be with you, Phil and Kelly.
是的
Yeah.
你知道吗，Phil，对于2026年，我们确实设定了一个更宽的范围，这主要是基于我们在2025年经历的宏观经济波动经验。
You know what, Phil, for '26, we did have a wider range, and that's just based on the experience we we saw in 2025 with the macroeconomic volatility.
我们在西海岸遇到了大量的燃料价格波动。
We had a lot of fuel volatility here on the West Coast.
因此，这个范围很好地涵盖了我们可能遇到的这种波动可能性。
So the range really captures the possibility of some of that volatility that we could see.
目前，我们正处在约5美元的中间区间，而且和所有人一样，刚进入2026年，我们就看到了非常强劲的预订量，实际上创下了我们历史上的最高纪录。
Right now, we're getting to the middle of the range around $5 and usually just coming out of gate in 2026, just like everyone else, we're seeing really strong bookings, super strong bookings, in fact, record bookings in our history.
所以到目前为止，我们对2026年的开局感到非常乐观，但依然保持谨慎，因为一些可能引发类似2025年波动的因素仍然存在。
So we feel pretty good, so far starting 2026, but we're we have that cautious optimism about things that could happen that drive the volatility that we saw in in '25.
Ben，你提到了西海岸航油的波动问题。
Ben, you mentioned the, volatility when it comes to the jet fuel that you get on the West Coast.
那里确实出现了炼油厂的问题。
They've had refinery issues out there.
所以，这比在美国其他地区加油要贵得多。
So it's more expensive than, let's say, if you were fueling up in other parts of the country.
你预计这种情况会持续到春季吗？
Do you expect that to drag out into the spring?
天哪。
Gosh.
我希望不会，菲尔。
I hope not, Phil.
我们已经经历了至少近两年，根本问题在于加利福尼亚的炼油厂无法持续运行，导致燃油价格上涨，这不仅影响航空业，也影响整个西海岸的民众。
We we've seen it now for at least, almost two years, and the key root issue is in California, the refinery, factories not staying online and drying fuel prices up, and not just for flyers, but for, you know, people all across the West Coast.
这确实是个问题。
It's an issue.
我们必须确保这些炼油厂正常运转，既为了行业，也为了美国民众。
We gotta keep these refineries working, for for the industry and for and for Americans.
因此，我希望情况能稳定下来，但对于西海岸燃油而言，这仍然是我们未来面临的一个重大风险。
And and so I hope it stabilizes, but that is a big risk for us going forward, if you for West Coast Fuel.
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菲尔，每加仑燃料高出10美分，就相当于每股收益减少75美分，这就是我们扩大范围的原因。
Phil, just like a little number is 10¢ per gallon of fuel higher than everyone else represents 75¢ of EPS, and that's the reason for our expanded range.
那你在第四季度遇到的IT问题呢？
What about the IT issues that you saw in the fourth quarter?
你显然正在投资以避免未来再出现这些问题。
You're obviously making the investment to avoid those in the future.
这项投资预计会在未来几年内持续多久？
Will that investment how long do you expect that to stretch out over the next couple of years?
菲尔，我们如何看待这些问题，这些IT中断对我们的顾客、财务业绩以及员工都造成了痛苦。
Know, Phil, the way we think about that and those IT outages were painful for, our guests, our financial results, and our and and our employees.
但我们把这些投资视为短期投入。
But the way we think about those investments are short term investments.
你知道，我们请了专家来评估，问题不在于投资不足，而在于投资的分布以及我们如何配置硬件和基础设施。
You know, we had experts come in, and it wasn't so much for a lack of investment, but where the investment was being made and how we were configuring our hardware and our infrastructure.
所以我们现在正在做这些投资。
So we're making those investments right now.
其中一些已经到位了。
They've already some of them are already in place.
更多短期的硬件配置和基础设施投资即将到位。
More is coming on short term hardware configuring infrastructure investments.
从长期来看，是否迁移到云端，这是一项我们正在推进的长期投资。
Longer term, whether we move into the cloud, that's more of a longer term investment that we're working on.
这一决定将在今年下半年做出。
That decision will happen towards the back half of the year.
但到目前为止，我们的目标是为IT基础设施提供最大的韧性。
But so far, our goal is to provide the most resilience for IT infrastructure.
我觉得我们现在的情况不错，但有很多人密切关注着，确保我们始终保持100%的正常运行。
I feel like we're in a good place right now, but we got a lot of eyes on it, a lot of people just focused on it, making sure we stay up 100% of the time.
我感觉顾问们已经摩拳擦掌，准备帮他们解决这个问题。
I feel the consultants licking their lips, We can help them with that.
但无论如何，本，我简单问一下，非常感谢。
But regardless, Ben, just a quick one for me, and I appreciate it.
我们的气象学家刚刚说，他认为未来一周航空旅行将完全停摆。
Our meteorologist just said he thinks that air travel is going to be ground to a halt for the next week.
这是真的吗？
Is that true?
为了应对这场风暴，幕后都在做哪些准备工作？
What's going on behind the scenes to prepare for this storm?
你知道，伯尼总是说一件事，每次提到冰，都让我毛骨悚然。
Well, you know, and and Bernie always he said one thing that always puts shivers down my spine when he said about ice.
是的。
Yes.
作为一名拥有三十多年经验的操作员，我可以告诉你，飞机和冰是绝对不能共存的。
And I will tell you being an operator for, you know, over three decades, airplanes and ice just don't mix.
当你谈到有四分之一英寸厚的冰层时，给飞机除冰会变得极其困难。
And when you're talking about a quarter inch of ice, it is so difficult to de ice airplanes that have that much ice on them.
这需要花费太长时间。
It takes so long.
我认为航空公司为了确保安全运营正是这样做的。
And I think that's what airlines do for us to operate safely.
机场的吞吐量几乎完全停滞，必须严格控制航班的起飞节奏。
The throughput out of an airport just comes to almost a grinding halt and you have to really meter the departures out.
我认为航空公司最好的做法是提前取消航班，让旅客提前了解他们将面临的情况。
And I think the best thing airlines can do is really cancel ahead of time to give travelers an idea of what they can expect.
根据这些天气预测，是的，你会看到大量航班减少。
So based on those weather predictions, yes, you're gonna see a lot of reductions.
临近出发时，大家会进一步精确调整，以最大程度保障旅客的安全，但情况肯定会很糟糕。
And closer in, you'll see everyone kinda dial in exactly what needs to happen to to provide the most assurances for travelers, but it's gonna be ugly.
我们正在削减飞往东海岸的航班计划。
We've we're we're taking down our schedule to the to the East Coast.
不幸的是，我们的主要运营基地在西海岸，但也遭受了暴雨和各种恶劣天气的袭击。
Now, unfortunately, we're on the West Coast, the bulk of our operations, but we got pounded with rain and, you know, all all that stuff.
所以我们的航班也受到了影响。
So we we we had our stuff as well.
但我希望情况不会像现在看起来这么糟糕，不过目前看来确实很严峻。
But, I'm hoping it's not gonna be as bad as it is, but it it looks pretty dire right now.
是的。
Yeah.
嘿，本。
Hey, Ben.
你的航线网络在美国东部地区的业务占比是多少？
What's your exposure in terms of your route network on the Eastern Half Of The United States?
因为正如你所说，你们确实有飞往纽约和其他东海岸城市的航班。
Because clearly, as you mentioned, you do have flights into New York, into other cities in the East Coast.
你的国内航线中，东部地区的业务占比是多少？
What's what's your exposure percentage wise of your domestic routes?
你知道的，菲爾，我凭记忆估计，我们至少有20%的运营是向东的。
You know, we probably and, Phil, I'm just going by memory, at least 20% of our operations head east.
所以比例相当高。
So it's quite a bit.
你知道，尽管我们总部在西海岸，但我们的网络中有20%的航班是向东飞行的TransCon航线。
You know, even though we're West Coast based, we have 20% of our network that flies east on TransCon flights.
所以这对我们也将会产生影响。
So it it it's gonna be impactful for us as well.
虽然不像那些总部在东海岸的航空公司那样严重，但我们还是得调整我们的航班计划。
Not to the same extent as the East Coast based airlines, but we gotta take our our schedule down as well.
本，感谢你今天抽出时间，尤其是在昨晚发布财报之后。
Ben, we appreciate the time today coming off of earnings report last night.
本·米尼库奇，阿拉斯加航空公司的首席执行官，正在与我们连线。
Ben Minicucci, CEO of Alaska Airlines joining us.
凯莉，我们把话题交还给你。
Kelly, we'll send it back to you.
好的。
Yeah.
给我们一些关于当前形势的清晰视角。
Give us some good perspective on on what we're facing here.
谢谢你们两位。
Thank you both.
接下来，英特尔股价因业绩指引疲软和供应短缺警告而大幅下跌。
Coming up, shares of Intel are plunging after weak guidance and warning of supply shortages.
尽管今天股价下跌，但该股的远期市盈率仍高达82倍。
Even with today's drop though, the stock trades at 82 times forward earnings.
我们将在下一条消息中为您带来所有细节。
We'll have all the details next.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我从不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
其中之一
One of
我最喜爱的建议之一是，想想你的老板的老板需要什么。
my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式呈现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，你必须志存高远，才能成就大事。
Life is short, and you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·博尔森主持CNBC的《变革者》和《权力人物》。
Julia Borson hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新节目每周二在您收听播客的平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
欢迎回来。
Welcome back.
今天市场整体呈现下跌态势。
We are seeing mostly a down day.
至少对于道琼斯和标普来说是这样。
Well, at least for the Dow, for the S and P.
不过看看标普，就在我们说话的时候，它可能转为上涨。
Although look at the S and P, it's only it could turn positive as we're talking.
纳斯达克目前上涨了百分之零点四，而表现落后的小微股此前却经历了惊人的上涨。
The Nasdaq is now four tenths of 1%, and the underperformers, the small caps have been on an incredible run.
我认为，这将结束相对于主要指数连续十四天的超额表现。
This would end there, I think fourteen days of outperformance relative to the major averages.
AMD 也在持续上涨。
AMD is also continuing its run.
它正朝着连续第九天上涨迈进，这是自2019年11月以来最长的连涨纪录。
It's on pace for its ninth straight day of gains, its longest win streak since November 2019.
在这段时间里，AMD 股价上涨了27%。
AMD shares are up 27% in that time.
芯片板块的另一面，英特尔下跌了17%，有望创下十六个月来最差单日表现。
Flip side of the chip trade, Intel plunging 17% on pace for its worst day in sixteen months.
在发布了令人失望的业绩指引并警告供应短缺后，让我们请克里斯蒂娜·帕尔泽内韦利斯来解释一下。
After disappointing guidance and warning of shortages, let's bring in Christina Parzenevelis to explain.
克里斯蒂娜？
Christina?
英特尔今天确实处境艰难，但这是在经历了一轮大幅上涨之后。
Intel is really having a rough day right now, but that's after a massive run up.
在过去六个月里，该股票因政府支持、英伟达、软银以及这些扭亏为盈的希望而上涨了超过130%。
The stock has more than doubled up over a 130% in the past six months on lifelines from the government, Nvidia, SoftBank, and these turnaround hopes.
但本季度提醒我们，扭亏为盈仍是一个进行中的过程。
But this quarter was a reminder that the turnaround is still a work in progress.
当前的问题是第一季度的收入指引疲软，凯莉，你刚才提到过。
The immediate issue is a weak first quarter revenue guide, Kelly, that you mentioned.
英特尔在人工智能服务器需求上措手不及。
Intel essentially got caught flat footed by AI server demand.
首席财务官戴夫·齐斯纳在电话会议上基本承认，公司‘在供应管理上未能跟上预期方向。'
CFO Dave Zissner essentially admitted that on the call saying the company, quote, was directionally wasn't managing the supply to expectations.
所以现在他们的库存和旧制造工艺的产能都已耗尽，而他们又不愿在这些工艺上追加投资。
So now they're out of inventory and capacity constrained on older manufacturing processes they won't invest more in.
有三个因素正在推动这场供应紧张。
Three forces are driving that supply crunch.
超大规模客户对所有AI数据中心建设的需求持续飙升。
Hyperscaler demand continues to soar for all of the AI data center build out.
台积电目前只满足了约80%的晶圆需求。
TSMC is only meeting about 80% of that wafer demand.
而AgenTik AI——那些为你提供答案的机器人——正在推动首席执行官Lip Bu Tan所称的‘CPU爆炸’。
And then AgenTik AI, you know, the, the bots that are fueling the answers to your questions is is fueling what CEO Lip Bu Tan called a CPU explosion.
Tan表示，超大规模客户告诉他们，这种需求不仅仅持续几个季度。
Tan said hyperscalers told them this demand isn't just for a few quarters.
他们预计这种需求将持续数年。
They expect it to last a few years.
这对英特尔来说是好消息，对AMD也非常有利。
So that's good news for Intel and also bodes very well for AMD.
英特尔预计供应将在2024年及第二季度改善，并将资本支出指引从下调调整为持平。
Intel expects supply to improve by the '1 and into q two and shifted CapEx guidance from down to flat.
这表明英特尔正在为新的代工客户做准备。
So that's a signal it's preparing for new foundry customers.
但英特尔首席财务官告诉我，不要期待在今年上半年之前有任何公告，这可能让华尔街感到失望，因为市场原本预期新客户进展会更快。
But Intel CFO told me not to expect announcements until the second half at the earliest of this year, which was maybe disappointing Wall Street, had been pricing in faster progress with new customers.
需求是真实的，但英特尔能否抓住这一机遇仍是问题。
The demand, is real, but Intel's ability to capitalize it remains the question.
目前，市场正在重新评估其为这一转型故事所支付的代价，正如我刚读到的一份摩根大通报告所说：看看这个。
For now, the market is reconsidering what it paid for that turnaround story or as one note I just read from Mizuho saying, look at this.
这只是趋势交易者进入了这只股票。
It's just momentum traders that got into the name.
它并不是基于基本面在交易，这就是为什么股价下跌了17%，是的。
It's not trading on fundamentals, and that's why it's down 17% Yeah.
我知道斯泰西·拉德森也相当沮丧。
I know Stacy Radsgun was pretty frustrated as well.
我们下一小时再和他聊聊。
We'll talk to him next hour.
克里斯蒂娜，到时候再见，继续聊。
Christina, we'll see you then for more.
克里斯蒂娜，关于Parts和Evolus。
Christina, parts and Evolus.
现在请让皮帕·史蒂文斯带来CNBC的新闻更新。
Let's get to Pippa Stevens now for the CNBC news update.
嗨，皮帕。
Hi, Pippa.
嗨，凯莉。
Hey, Kelly.
目前还没有任何妥协的迹象，但今天在阿布扎比举行了三方会谈，俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国的谈判代表正在讨论结束战争的条件。
No signs of compromise yet, but trilateral talks were being held today in Abu Dhabi where Russian, Ukrainian, and US negotiators are meeting to discuss terms of ending the war.
这些会谈是在特朗普总统本周与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面，以及美国特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和杰瑞德·库什纳前往莫斯科会见弗拉基米尔·普京之后进行的。
Talks come after meetings between president Trump and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week along with a trip to Moscow by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to meet with Vladimir Putin.
据TechCrunch报道，Meta今天在全球范围内暂停了青少年对其AI角色的访问，以便为其开发一个专门的青少年版本。
According to TechCrunch, Meta today suspending teen access to its AI characters worldwide as it looks to develop a special version just for teenagers.
这一举措正值新墨西哥州的法庭程序前夕，该州指控这家社交媒体巨头未能充分保护儿童免受其应用中性剥削的伤害。
The moves come ahead of court proceedings in New Mexico where the social media giant is accused of not sufficiently protecting kids from sexual exploitation on its apps.
费城政府已对内政部提起诉讼，起因是国家公园管理局周四移除了关于奴隶制的展览，以遵守总统特朗普关于'恢复美国历史的真实与理性'的行政命令。
And the city of Philadelphia has sued the Department of the Interior after the National Park Service on Thursday removed an exhibit on slavery to comply with president Trump's executive order to quote restore truth and sanity to American history.
总统于去年三月签署了这项命令，指责拜登政府在国家历史遗址推广一种具有腐蚀性的意识形态。
The president signed the order last March in which he blamed the Biden administration for advancing a corrosive ideology at the country's historic sites.
凯莉？
Kelly?
好的，皮帕。
Alright, Pippa.
谢谢。
Thanks.
关注一下纳斯达克指数，今天的小幅上涨使其本周整体重返正增长区域。
And check out the Nasdaq, which is clawing its way back into positive territory for the week with today's small gain.
这是一件大事。
This is a big deal.
密切关注它。
Keep an eye on it.
随着格陵兰协议框架已经确立，地缘政治能否退居幕后，让投资者专注于收益？
And with the framework of a deal in place for Greenland now, can geopolitics move to the back burner so investors can focus squarely on earnings?
我们将讨论这一点以及我们所看到的波动性。
We'll talk about that and the volatility we're seeing.
不要根据地缘政治新闻进行交易。
Do not trade geopolitical headlines.
这是我们下一位嘉宾在本周经历的这种波动背景下坚持的观点。
That's the insistence of our next guest on the back of this volatility we've seen all week.
尽管金属交易一路走高，黄金有望迎来近六年来最佳的一周，白银今天首次突破100美元。
Although it's been a straight line higher for the metals trade, gold on pace for its best week in nearly six years, Silver above $100 announced today for the first time.
那么投资者现在该怎么做？
So what should investors do now?
今天我们邀请到了曼生命约翰汉考克公司的联合首席投资策略师马特·米斯金。
With us is Matt Myskin, the co chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock.
马特，很高兴见到你。
Matt, it's good to see you.
我的意思是，你会从哪里开始呢？
And I mean, where would you have a start?
在我看来，你似乎正在稍微远离七巨头，转而更关注价值型股票。
It sounds to me like you're backing a little bit away from the Mag seven and looking more to the value side of things.
是这样吗？
Is that right?
是的，凯莉。
Yeah, Kelly.
优质价值是我们目前的信条。
Quality value is our mantra right now.
工业板块是我们最看好的行业，因为我们开始看到净资产收益率上升，优质公司的需求出现回升。
Industrials are our favorite sector as we're starting to see higher return on equity, good solid companies seeing a pull through in demand.
我们认为，科技板块到2026年的盈利预期过高。
Earnings estimates into 2026 look rich to us on the tech space.
他们预计今年的盈利增长将达到20%到30%，而去年已经增长了20%。
They're looking for, like, 20 to 30% earnings growth on top of twenty percent last year.
工业板块预计盈利增长16%。
Industrial is looking for 16% earnings growth.
我们认为，在经历了一年艰难之后，这个增长是合理的。
We think that's legit after a tougher year this year.
我们看到，工业公司很可能是受益于《加速折旧法案》这一项重大利好政策的最大受益者。
We're seeing industrial companies likely have the biggest beneficiary from the one big beautiful bill accelerated depreciation.
这将推动一些科技领域的资本支出。
It's gonna spur some tech CapEx.
你正在看到航空航天和国防行业正在强劲发展。
And what you're seeing in the aerospace and defense industry is really humming along here.
是的。
Yeah.
准备起飞。
Ready to take flight.
国防？
Defense?
那就是
That's
我们看到的。
we see.
听好了。
Listen.
我们正要提到这一点。
We were just about to put that.
也许他们可以把这个放回屏幕上。
Maybe they can put it back on the screen.
自十一月以来，波音股价上涨了40%。
Boeing is up 40% since November.
国防股票的表现优于除人工智能领域的内存交易之外的所有板块。
Defense stocks have outperformed all but about the memory trade, part of AI.
我的意思是，与其说投资者不应该交易地缘政治新闻，不如说你实际上是在建议投资者通过持有国防股票和金属来承担地缘政治风险。
I mean, it's almost as if instead of if you're saying investors shouldn't trade geopolitical headlines, it's almost like you you say just own geopolitical risk in the form of defense stocks and I guess in the form of the metals.
是的。
Right.
而且，在金属领域，我们现在正试图向投资者灌输的一个重要教训是，不要陷入错失恐惧症。
And, you know, in in the metals right now, one of the other big lessons we're trying to, you know, instill in investors is to not get the case of the FOMO.
目前我们在金属市场看到的，正是对错失机会的恐惧。
So fear missing out right now is what we're seeing in the metals.
我对这个领域持谨慎态度。
I'm I'm cautious there.
我认为，在行情走强时适当减仓，可能是更好的策略。
I think that actually trimming into strength, it might be a better idea.
但就工业板块而言，这是多年来一直相对平静的市场部分。
But in terms of the industrial space, you know, this is a part of the market that has been relatively quiet for years.
它并没有像AI那样引发热潮，但确实与AI数据中心的建设有关，同时还包含其他因素。
It's not been the hype of the AI, but it's it's more so, you know, it is the AI data center build out that is part of it, but it's got other things.
航空航天和国防需求依然强劲。
Aerospace and defense demand is still strong.
我们正在看到制造业的本土化资本支出。
We're seeing onshoring CapEx.
美国中西部正迎来制造业复兴，一片繁荣景象。
The Midwest is booming with manufacturing renaissance still here right in America.
你看好工业板块吗？
You like the industrials?
你看好中盘股吗？
You like the mid caps?
有些观众表示，很高兴看到中盘股也参与了上涨。
I've had some audience members say they're glad to see the mid caps participating.
当罗素指数表现突出时，他们并不喜欢。
They don't love it when the Russell's out performing.
我认为大家都太过于关注罗素指数了。
I think everyone's harping on the Russell a little too much.
我喜欢看到小盘股和中盘股一起上涨。
I like to see the small caps up there in the mid cap.
也许它们质量较低。
Maybe they're low quality.
也许这仅仅表明其他地方存在盈利增长动力，而不仅仅局限于大型科技股。
Maybe they it it just is a sign that there's possibly earnings momentum elsewhere and not just in mega cap tech.
是的。
Yeah.
因此，在小盘股和中盘股的交易中，最大的区别在于：中盘股更多是工业板块，而小盘股则更多是地区性银行。
And so amidst the the small and and mid cap trades, the biggest difference you get is it's more industrials and mid, and in small, it's more regional banks.
地区性银行实际上正强劲回升。
And regional banks actually, like, coming in strong here.
它们的盈利正在以两位数的速度增长。
So, they're growing earnings at double digits.
你看到不错的并购活动，收益率曲线变得更陡峭。
You're seeing nice m and a activity, steeper yield curve.
财富管理业务表现良好。
The wealth management business is doing well.
但问题是，你可能会遇到这些头条风险。
But the problem is that you can get these headline risks.
你可能会遇到像监管这样的问题。
You can get things like regulation.
你可能会遇到市场对此如此敏感的情况。
You can get things like just the markets are so sensitive to it.
因此，地区性银行的日子过得更艰难了。
So regional banks having a tougher day to day.
我们认为，考虑到需求管道、资本支出以及我之前提到的所有因素，工业板块可能是更好的选择。
We think industrials, given the pipeline of demand, given the capex and everything else that I already referenced, might be a better spot.
所以，这些业绩正在涌现，你知道，你提到它们表现强劲。
So it's coming, you know, you mentioned those results coming in hot.
那整个‘热运行’交易策略呢？
What about the whole idea of the run it hot trade?
你知道，这说明了什么？
You know, what does that tell you?
我的意思是，你提到很多金属市场的这种现象是追涨杀跌，但你认为这里的情况是否真的如政府所说？
I mean, is that also you you mentioned a lot of this is FOMO in the metals, but do you think that's what's happening here is true to the administration's word?
他们现在只是稍微有点过热。
They're just running it a little hot right now.
嘿。
Hey.
你知道，所谓的‘热’，我觉得这里马萨诸塞州波士顿以外的天气只是温暖而已，我告诉你，我们宁愿要一些温暖，也不要我们即将迎来的那么多雪。
You know, the hot isn't I I think it's it's warm and up here in Massachusetts outside of Boston, I'll tell you, we would take some warmth and a lot less snow than we're about to get.
但我们在这里看到的是低通胀下的良好增长。
But what we're seeing here is good growth with less inflation.
这与滞胀恰恰相反。
This is the opposite of stagflation.
去年年底我听到了很多关于滞胀的说法。
I heard so much stagflation at the end of last year.
从经济进入一月的趋势来看，它正在加速，但并没有过热。
In terms of the economy heading into January, it's accelerating, but not, like, too hot.
比如，采购经理指数和供应管理协会指数可能刚刚超过50。
Like, the PMI and the ISM might hit just above 50.
这很好。
That's good.
而且通胀仍然得到控制。
And then inflation is staying in check.
房地产市场实际上只是温和增长。
Housing is actually modest growth.
房价正在趋于平稳。
Housing prices are moderating.
能源价格方面，今天油价确实上涨了，但总体来看，并不算太糟。
Energy prices, they're up get the oil's up today, but all things considered, not that bad.
我们认为，到2026年，工资增长将放缓。
Wage growth into 2026, we think moderates.
我们最大的非共识观点是，到2026年通胀将放缓。
Our biggest nonconsensus call is inflation moderates into 2026.
但这实际上是个相当积极的信号。
That's actually a pretty bullish thing, though.
哇。
Wow.
那将是非常看涨的。
That would be extremely bullish.
那将是极好的消息。
That would be very, very good news.
我知道，正如你所说，很多人对此越来越担忧，但你说的情况是温热，而不是微温。
I know, like you said, lot people are getting more concerned about it, but you're saying it's more, it's warm, not lukewarm.
这并不好。
That's not good.
我们希望它刚刚好，温暖适度。
We want it just nice and warm.
马特，谢谢。
Matt, thanks.
今天非常感谢。
Appreciate it today.
马特·米斯金斯，感谢你来自宏利的参与。
Matt Miskins Thank joining you from Manulife.
接下来，请做好准备。
Coming up, brace yourselves.
人工智能领域正在发生另一次重大转变，其盈利潜力可能甚至超过聊天机器人。
There's another big shift underway in AI, and it could be even more lucrative than chatbots.
我们将在《交易所》节目下一部分揭晓这一点。
We'll reveal that next on The Exchange.
尽管OpenAI近来可能面临巨大压力，但萨姆·阿尔特曼正将焦点放在一个快速增长的业务板块上，这个板块独立于ChatGPT，表明AI竞赛可能正超越聊天机器人。
OpenAI might be under a lot of pressure lately, but Sam Altman is putting the spotlight on a fast growing part of the business, separate from chat GPT, as the race for AI maybe moves beyond chatbots.
黛德丽·博扎带来今天的科技资讯。
Deirdre Boza has more in today's tech check.
黛德丽？
Deirdre?
嗨，凯莉。
Hey, Kelly.
所以，这场竞赛正从我们作为聊天机器人用户所看到和输入的内容，转向支撑企业与开发者后台的技术。
So the race is moving from what we see and prompt as chatbot users to what powers the back end for enterprises and developers.
你将开始频繁听到的一个指标是API使用量。
The metric, which you're gonna start hearing a lot more about is API usage.
软件直接与模型进行交互。
So the software talks directly to the model.
一个系统发送请求，AI返回答案。
One system sends a request, the AI sends back an answer.
当一家公司使用AI API时，无论是ChatGPT、Gemini还是Claude，这些模型都在其内部运行。
When a company uses an AI API, the model that could be ChatGPT or Gemini or Claude, it's running inside.
它可能嵌入在企业软件、药物发现工具、科学模拟系统或其他任何应用中。
It could be inside enterprise software, drug discovery tools, scientific simulations, anything else.
所以，OpenAI、谷歌和Anthropic都对API使用收费。
So So OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, they all charge for API usage.
这构成了企业等收入来源的核心。
That is what makes up revenue streams like enterprise.
但随着这一业务板块的增长，OpenAI的首席财务官莎拉·弗莱尔提出了另一种机会——价值共享模式。
But as that side of the business grows, OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer, she floated the idea of a value exchange model as another opportunity.
换句话说，OpenAI可以抽取其客户通过AI辅助所取得的发现所带来的部分收益。
In other words, OpenAI could take a cut of its customers' AI aided discoveries.
如今，一些即时反馈指出了其中的讽刺之处：OpenAI大量抓取受版权保护的数据来训练模型，随后却要求分享基于这些智能所创造的价值。
Now, some of the immediate feedback pointed to the irony of OpenAI scraping vast amounts of copyrighted data to train its models and then turning around and asking for a share of the value created on top of that intelligence.
但换一个角度看，凯莉，这正是前沿技术实现规模化融资的正确方式。
But another way of looking at it, Kelly, is that this is exactly how frontier technology gets funded at scale.
那就是将模型的经济收益与其助力实现的突破性成果直接挂钩。
That is by tying the economics of the model to the breakthroughs that it helps unlock.
这引发了一个更大的问题：关于人工智能的经济模式，谁拥有输入数据，谁从成果中获益，更不用说如何实际执行这种收益分成模式了。
Now it all does raise a bigger question about AI economics, who owns the inputs, who gets paid for the outcomes, not to mention the mechanics of actually executing this kind of a revenue share model.
综合来看，本周早些时候出现了广告，而现在又有了这个想法，这充分显示出OpenAI面临的压力——必须找到足够庞大的收入来源，以支撑其已承诺的超过一万亿美元的投入。
Seen together, though, you had ads earlier this week, and now this it really shows the pressure on OpenAI to find revenue streams that are big enough to support OpenAI's commitments more than a trillion dollars worth of them that are already locked in.
我的意思是，人们对于AI生成内容的收益分成机制有很多疑问。
I mean, people have a lot of questions about how it would work for them to take a cut of things you create with AI.
如果我真的觉得这是个问题，我再也不会使用它了。
I I mean, I'd never use it again if I thought that was a real issue.
是的。
Right.
但我觉得这并不适用于你我这样的人。
But I don't think it's for people like you or I.
我不认为当我用Codex或ChatGPT的AI编程助手时，他们会想从我的Evedometer里分一杯羹。
I don't think they're gonna wanna cut of my Evedometer if I use that with Codex, you know, ChatGPT's AI coding assistant.
这很可能主要是针对大型企业的，而莎拉·弗莱尔提出的构想，是与大型药物发现公司或制药企业合作，建立一种对双方都有利的机制。
This is probably meant for large corporations, and what Sarah Fryer floated was the idea of working with big drug discovery companies or pharmaceuticals and creating some kind of structure that would be beneficial to both.
你的怀疑态度，凯莉，可能代表了目前围绕这个问题的主流观点，他们一边抓取数据，一边又对这些抓取来的数据收费，这确实很有讽刺意味。
Your skepticism, Kelly, is probably like the prevailing narrative around this at I the talked about the irony of them scraping data and turning around and charging for that data that they scraped.
但我的意思是，他们会辩称自己确实做了些事情。
But, I mean, they would argue that they've done something.
我不会去评判他们的立场。
Kinda wouldn't say, like, where they're coming from.
对他们收费。
Charge for it.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我理解他们的观点：如果我们参与其中，我们就应该分得一份收益。
Like, I I take their point that, look, if we're gonna help in this, we should get a cut.
但不幸的是，这是一个弱肉强食的世界。
But, unfortunately, it's a dog eat dog world.
如果其他平台都可以使用，而且他们并没有提出同样的要求，那你为什么还要同意他们的条件呢？
If the other platforms are available to use and they're not making the same demands, why why would you agree to theirs?
我很高兴你注意到了这一点。
I'm so glad you picked up on that.
我不想再添加另一层意思，但你说得完全对。
I didn't wanna add that other layer, but that's exactly right.
这或许能成为开源模型的一个论据，因为开源模型无法具备这种结构。
And it could be, you know, a case for open source models, which wouldn't be able to have that kind of structure.
它们可能赚不到钱，但也不会有这种结构。
They may not be able to make money, but they wouldn't have that kind of structure.
我们知道，它们的表现已经和一些最前沿的模型一样优秀了。
And we know that they're becoming just as good as some of the most competitive frontier models.
而且还是来自中国。
And from China, no less.
所以，你能清楚地看到这会走向何方。
So you can, you know, you can see really see where that would be going.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yeah.
黛德丽，谢谢。
Deirdre, thanks.
黛德丽·博萨。
Deirdre Bosa.
接下来，美国的TikTok用户欢呼吧。
Coming up, American TikTok users rejoice.
旨在让TikTok在美国继续运营的交易似乎在最后一刻即将达成，但那位帮助制定原始禁令的网络安全专家仍存疑虑，我们将分享他的观点——关于用户数据在交易后是否能真正得到保障。
The deal to keep your social media service available in The US looks to be closing at the eleventh hour, but the cyber expert who helped shape the original ban still has concerns and we will share them and about whether user data can be truly secured after this.
事情总是以一声叹息收场。
It always seems to end with a whimper.
在昨日达成保留TikTok在美国运营的交易后，社交媒体股票今日小幅上涨。
Social media stocks are slightly higher today after the deal to keep TikTok in The US was finalized yesterday.
让我们请朱莉娅·博尔森来告诉我们这项交易将如何运作。
Let's bring in Julia Borson to tell us how it's gonna work.
细节是什么？
What are the details?
你好，朱莉娅。
Hi, Julia.
你好，凯莉。
Hi, Kelly.
没错。
That's right.
你手机上的TikTok应用在美国已经有了新的所有者，其算法正在使用美国数据进行重新训练。
The TikTok app on your phone has new owners in The US, and its algorithm is being retrained on US data.
现在这家新公司的多数所有者是甲骨文、银湖资本和位于阿布扎比的MGX，而字节跳动仍持有19%的股份。
Now the new company's majority owners are Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi based MGX with 19% still owned by ByteDance.
而且，该应用的两亿美国用户无需下载新版本。
And the and the app's 200,000,000 US based users will not have to download a new version of the app.
虽然TikTok被关闭的威胁可能已经消除，但仍然存在许多挑战。
Now the threat of being shut down may be gone for TikTok, but plenty of challenges still remain.
目前尚不清楚这个新版抖音对用户会有什么不同，以及在应用由基于美国数据重新训练的中国算法运行、且由美国公司决定允许何种内容的情况下，广告商的投资回报率是否会相同或更差。
It's unclear how this new version of TikTok will be different for users and if the return on investment will be the same or worse for advertisers now that the app is run on the license of the Chinese algorithm retrained on US data with the US company deciding what kind of content is allowed.
人们对抖音未来的不确定性被视为Meta、Snap、YouTube和Pinterest等竞争对手的利好。
Now uncertainty about TikTok's future was seen as a benefit for rivals Metas, Snap, YouTube, and Pinterest.
品牌可能仍会持观望态度，直到抖音新的投资回报率变得清晰，才会重新将资金投入抖音。
Brands may still hedge and wait to move dollars back to TikTok until its new return on investment is clear.
抖音目前面临的一个关键风险是Instagram短视频功能（Reels）在美国的崛起。
A key risk for TikTok now is the threat from Instagram's reels, which is on the rise in The US.
根据eMarketer的数据，用户每天在抖音上的平均使用时间已从2023年的60分钟下降到今年的52分钟，而Instagram的使用时间则从33分钟上升至36分钟。
Average time spent per user on TikTok has fallen from one hour per day in 2023 to fifty two minutes this year, according to eMarketer, while Instagram's time spent has risen from thirty three minutes to thirty six.
另一方面，目前有望快速增长的领域是抖音商城。
Now on the flip side, an area poised for growth now is TikTok shop.
该公司预计将大力拓展其电商业务，这可能会对SHEIN到Sephora等竞争对手构成挑战。
The company is expected to aggressively ramp its ecommerce business, which could challenge players from Shein to Sephora.
eMarketer预测，抖音商城今年在美国的销售额将突破200亿美元，并在2029年增长至370亿美元。
E marketer projects that TikTok shop will top $20,000,000,000 in US sales this year, growing to 37,000,000,000 by 2029.
凯莉，
Kelly,
我觉得你说得对，关于Instagram。
I think you're right about Instagram.
昨天我和苏利聊了这个问题。
Sully and I were talking about this yesterday.
我得给他们很多肯定。
They I give them a lot of credit.
这个算法，我不确定是不是AI，确实进步了很多，而且我最近听到越来越多关于它的讨论。
The algorithm, I don't know if it's AI, has has really gotten a lot better, and I seem to hear more and more about that.
朱莉亚，非常感谢。
Julia, thanks very much.
朱莉亚·博尔森。
Julia Borson.
无论如何，这项TikTok交易已经受到立法者的审查。
In any case, this TikTok deal is already under scrutiny from lawmakers.
马萨诸塞州的民主党参议员爱德·马基呼吁国会调查这笔交易，并在一份声明中表示，白宫需要提供更多细节，包括TikTok的算法是否真正不受中国影响。
Democratic senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts is calling for congress to investigate the deal, saying in a statement more details from the White House are needed, quote, including whether TikTok's algorithm is truly free of Chinese influence.
我的下一位嘉宾是两年前曾在美国国会作证，建议出售或禁止TikTok的关键专家之一。
My next guest is one of the key experts who testified before Congress recommending a sale or ban of TikTok nearly two years ago.
让我们欢迎网络安全公司Ferroot的首席执行官伊万·扎里尼。
Let's bring back Ivan Zarrini, the CEO of cybersecurity company, Ferroot.
伊万，很高兴见到你。
Ivan, it's great to see you.
有一阵子没见了。
It's been a little while.
你对这笔交易有什么看法？
What's your reaction to the deal?
是的。
Yes.
谢谢您邀请我。
Thank you for having me.
首先，对于所有TikTok用户来说，这真是个好消息，因为这款应用将继续运营，大家未来仍能继续使用。
First of all, it's great and amazing news for all of the TikTok's users that the app, it will be, still in business and everyone will be enjoying it moving forward.
因此，一个主要的关注点是，美国人的隐私和数据安全现在掌握在美国高管手中。
So, and one of the main concerns is definitely taking care of such as governance of privacy and security of Americans' data is now in the hands of American executives.
你们确信吗？他们都说的是这个。
You you sure about the know, that's what they're all saying.
我想知道你的看法。
I wanna know what you think.
这确实是事实吗？
Is that definitely the case?
这具体会如何运作呢？
Is there still how how exactly is this going to work?
更重要的是，我是不是该终于在手机上下载TikTok，并且完全放心，不会帮助训练中国那边的AI算法和模型？
And more importantly, should I finally download TikTok on my phone and feel completely fine about it that I'm not helping to train AI algorithms and models back in China?
是的，凯莉，这是个非常有趣的问题。
Yeah, Kelly, really interesting question.
我不会建议你安装或不安装这个应用。
I'm not going to endorse either way to install the app or not.
但从安全专家的角度来看，公告和新闻中确实有一个特别突出的问题。
But from security experts' concerns or point of view, there's definitely one concern that kind of stood out from the announcement and the news.
其中之一是，拜登政府的全球部门仍将对TikTok的电商、广告和营销功能与工具拥有管理和访问权限。
One of them is that Biden's global arm will still have an over management and access to TikToks, ecommerce, advertising and marketing capabilities and tools.
这之所以重要，是因为营销工具收集的数据不会被用于针对美国人的监控和间谍活动。
And that why this is important is the data that is collected for by marketing tools is not going to be used for surveillance and spying in Americans.
就像我们两年前提出的担忧一样，我们发现TikTok曾收集过那些从未使用过该应用的美国人的数据。
Just like we raised a concern two years ago where, we found that TikTok was collecting data on, Americans that have never even used the app.
因此，这仍然是一个需要解决的问题。
So this is still a concern to be addressed.
电商现在是你的具体担忧吗？
The ecommerce is specifically the concern for you now?
是的。
Yeah.
电子商务、广告和营销也是如此，因为在隐私和安全领域，商业工具确实会实时收集我们每个人的数据。
Ecommerce, also advertising and marketing because what's happening in a in a privacy and a security kind of world is that commercial tools do collect data, real time information on all of us.
而这些数据可以用于双重目的，显然既用于商业和业务目的，也可用于对我们进行监控。
And then that data can be used for dual purpose, obviously for commercial and business purpose, but also for surveillance on us.
为什么这一点很重要？
And why that is important?
因为我们正处于人工智能竞赛中。
Because we're in the AI race.
对吧？
Right?
但你是说，现在这些数据只是被使用了吗？
But are you saying that the same data now that it's just use it.
我正在看什么？
What am I looking at?
对吧？
Right?
你的意思是，为了收集广告信息，我所浏览的内容仍然可能被中国人访问到。
You're saying that in order to collect advertising information, basically, what I'm looking at could still be something that the Chinese have access to.
是的。
Yeah.
你说到点子上了。
You're spot on.
很高兴你注意到了这一点。
I'm glad you picked it up picked on that.
从营销和广告的角度来看，真正重要的是，那些监控你行为、你所见内容、你访问的网站以及你在手机上活动的数据，仍然可以用于训练人工智能，比如中国的人工智能工具和模型。
And so what is really important for from marketing and advertising point of view is that the same data that watches what you do, what you see, what websites you're visiting, what you're doing on your phone can still be used for training, for example, AI and Chinese AI tools and AI models.
这使他们相对于任何美国的人工智能都获得了实时的竞争优势。
And that gives them real time competitive advantage over any of the American AI.
那么区别在哪里？
So what's the difference?
如果他们仍然能做到这些，那他们现在不能再做什么了？
If they can still do that, what is it that they can no longer do?
这是一个重要的问题。
Well, that's an important question.
很可能，他们不再能使用你在美国内使用TikTok应用时收集到的数据。
Very likely they're longer able to use the data that is collected within the app itself when you are using the TikTok app in The US.
但那些在应用之外收集的数据，我们不知道这些数据是否会由美国的新TikTok实体管理，还是仍然由中国方面控制和访问。
But the data that is collected outside of the app, we don't know if that data is going to be governed by the the new TikTok entity in The US or it's still going to be governed and accessed through China.
明白了。
Got it.
那我们就让他们吧，我快下定决心要下载了。
Well, then we'll have them I'm getting to the point where I'm just gonna download it.
我真的不知道了。
I I was like, I don't know anymore.
我实在做不到。
I I I can't.
但不行。
But no.
与此同时，Instagram 一直表现得相当不错。
Instagram has been, plenty fine in the meantime.
伊万，感谢你更清晰地阐述了这些担忧，立法者们将更加关注此事，我们会看到他们是否能做出调整来解决这些问题。
I appreciate you spelling out those concerns more clearly, Ivan, as lawmakers will turn more attention to it and we'll see if they can alter this to address them.
伊万，塞雷尼亚·弗鲁德，非常感谢你们。
Ivan, Serenia Froud, thanks so much.
今天非常感谢。
Appreciate it today.
我们今天的节目就到这里。
And that's it for us.
感谢收看《The Exchange》。
Thanks for watching The Exchange.
广告结束后，我会去加入多姆·楚的《Power Lunch》节目。
I'll head over to join Dom Chu for Power Lunch right after this break.
您刚刚收听的是《The Exchange》。
You've been listening to The Exchange.
确保订阅，每天同一时间、同一地点收看每期节目。
Make sure you're subscribed to get each episode every day, same time, same place.
是什么让你有信心去做一件以前没人做过的事？
What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?
我不害怕失败。
I have no fear of failure.
开拓进取的女性正在改变游戏规则。
Trailblazing women changing the game.
我最喜欢的一条建议是：想想你老板的老板需要什么。
One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs.
领导力可以以多种多样的形式展现。
Leadership can look in many, many different forms.
归根结底，还是要相信自己。
It really does come down to just trusting yourself.
人生短暂，要想成就大事，就得有远大志向。
Life is short, you just gotta think big to accomplish big things.
朱莉娅·布斯坦主持CNBC的变革者与权力人物节目。
Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players.
新集数每周二在您收听播客的任何平台上线。
New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts.
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