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我正在开启跨平台对战。
I'm opening up cross play.
我一直在和丹对战，他是《纽约时报》的同事。
I've been playing against Dan, my colleague at the New York Times.
卡特下了另一手。
Kat's played another move.
呃。
Ugh.
她用了“stoop”得了36分。
She played stoop for 36 points.
我手里有个Z，值10分。
I've got a z, which is 10 points.
我猜“Tenga”不是一个单词。
I'm guessing Tenga is not a word.
我们看看。
Let's see.
Tenga 是一个单词。
Tenga is a word.
哦。
Oh.
丹完成了他的最后一轮。
Dan played his last turn.
我们来看看谁赢了。
Let's see who won.
比分太接近了，但我赢了。
It's so close, but I did win.
《纽约时报》游戏订阅用户可全面访问 Crossplay，这是我们首款双人文字游戏。
New York Times game subscribers get full access to Crossplay, our first two player word game.
现在订阅，即可享受我们所有游戏的特别优惠。
Subscribe now for a special offer on all of our games.
想象一下，你是唐纳德·特朗普，或者你是唐纳德·特朗普的政治顾问之一，又或者是他那些不希望中期选举失利、不想让自己的加密货币和人工智能交易遭到国会民主党人调查的孩子之一。
So imagine you're Donald Trump, or maybe you're one of Donald Trump's political advisers or his kids, one of the ones who doesn't wanna lose the midterms and start getting your crypto and AI trades investigated by congressional Democrats.
所以你在那里，正在策划昨晚的国情咨文。
So you're there, and you're planning out last night's state of the union.
你会怎么做？
What would you do?
好吧，你可能会先从一个需要解决的问题开始。
Well, you'd probably start with a problem that you need to solve.
让你在2024年当选的议题，如今在2026年却变成了巨大的弱点。
The issues that got you elected in 2024 have turned into huge vulnerabilities in 2026.
回溯一年。
Go back a year.
回到2025年2月。
Go back to February 2025.
移民问题是你的最强优势。
Immigration is your strongest issue.
那些软弱的自由派看着你的支持率，都能在内特·西尔弗的民调追踪器上清楚看到。
All those weenie liberals looking at your approval rating can see it right there in Nate Silver's poll tracker.
你在移民问题上的净支持率大约是10%。
Your net approval on immigration is around 10%.
这意味着支持你处理移民问题的人比不支持的多出10%。
That means 10% more of the country approves of the job you're doing than disapproves of it.
去吧，自由派们。
Suck it, liberals.
再往前推一年，你在移民问题上的净支持率已经变成负13%。
Fast forward a year, your net approval on immigration is negative 13%.
移民问题已经从你最强的优势变成了民众反感你的原因之一。
Immigration has gone from your strongest issue to a reason the country dislikes you.
再看看经济。
Or take the economy.
2025年时，你的经济表现还不错，支持率高出7%，但后来关税来了。
In 2025, you were doing pretty well, plus 7%, but then came the tariffs.
现在你对经济的净支持率是负17%，甚至负70%，而且情况还在恶化。
Now your net approval on the economy is negative 17%, negative 70%, And it gets worse.
在贸易方面，支持率低至-23%。
On trade, it is negative 23%.
在通胀方面，支持率低至-30%。
On inflation, negative 30%.
负百分之三十。
Negative 30%.
现在到了国情咨文发表的时间了。
So now it is state of the union time.
你拥有一个难得的机会，可以向整个政治体系、全国民众发声。
You have this rare opportunity to address the entire political system, the entire country.
那么，你会怎么做呢？
So what do you do?
你会告诉美国人民，你正在努力解决这些问题，知道目前存在动荡与混乱吗？
Do you tell the American people you're working on it, that you know there's disruption and tumult?
这些政策需要一些时间才能见到成效。
It's just gonna take some time for all these policies to pay off.
你是告诉美国人民，你听到了他们的心声，将会调整方向，推出新计划，还是告诉美国人民，是他们错了，一切其实都很好，他们应该相信你，而不是他们亲眼所见和空空如也的钱包，以及街头混乱的视频？
Do you tell the American people you hear them and you're going to change course, that you've got a new plan, or do you tell the American people that they're wrong, that everything is actually going great, that they should believe you, not their lying eyes and empty wallets and the videos of chaos in their streets.
昨晚的国情咨文演讲中，唐纳德·特朗普果断选择了第三条路。
Last night at the State of the Union, Donald Trump decisively chose Door number 3.
这场演讲持续了一个小时四十五分钟以上，是有记录以来最长的一次国情咨文。
At over an hour and forty five minutes, this was the longest State of the Union in recorded history.
他有充足的时间来阐述自己的观点。
He had a lot of time to make his case.
特朗普一再强调，美国人民根本不知道自己在说什么。
And what Trump said again and again was that the American people don't know what they're talking about.
今天，我们的边境已经安全。
Today, our border is secure.
我们的精神已经恢复。
Our spirit is restored.
通货膨胀正在急剧下降。
Inflation is plummeting.
收入正在迅速增长。
Incomes are rising fast.
繁荣的经济前所未有地蓬勃发展，我们的敌人感到害怕。
The roaring economy is roaring like never before, and our enemies are scared.
我们的军队和警察实力雄厚，美国再次受到尊重，或许前所未有的尊重。
Our military and police are stacked, and America is respected again, perhaps like never before.
我不会在这里对总统的话进行事实核查。
I'm not gonna go through a fact check of the president here.
唐纳德·特朗普不是一个诚实的人。
Donald Trump is not a truthful man.
人们投票给他，并不是相信他是一个诚实的人。
People did not vote for him believing him a truthful man.
他们投票给他，是因为相信他能解决他们的问题。
They voted for him believing he could solve their problems.
但过去一年里，我越来越疑惑的不是特朗普是否对我们诚实，而是他是否对自己诚实，或者他身边的人是否诚实。
But what I have increasingly wondered over the past year isn't whether Trump is being truthful with us, but whether he's being truthful with himself or whether the people around him are.
特朗普知道什么？
What does Trump know?
他不知道什么？
What doesn't he know?
因为在他的第二任期内，他身边全是阿谀奉承之徒。
Because in his second term, he is surrounded by yes men and sycophants.
他主持这些内阁会议。
He presides over these cabinet meetings.
你可以看到，一位又一位机构负责人告诉他，他干得有多棒，他的总统任期进行得有多不可思议地顺利。
You can watch them where one agency head after another tells him how great he is doing, how unbelievably well his presidency is going.
他不阅读冗长的简报材料。
He doesn't read lengthy briefing books.
我们都知道。
We know that.
他并不主导一个正常的政策制定过程。
He doesn't preside over a normal policy process.
他通过一个自己拥有的社交媒体平台交流，那里满是喜欢他的人。
He communicates on a social media site he owns that's filled with people who like him.
他为自己举办游行。
He throws himself parades.
他采纳了专制者常见的做法，强迫人们听那些冗长得离谱的演讲。
He's adopted the cliched authoritarian habit of forcing people to sit through these record length speeches.
是的，让众议院议长迈克·约翰逊长时间点头、鼓掌、微笑，确实是一种令人惊叹的权力展示。
And, yes, it is an amazing show of dominance to make speaker Mike Johnson nod and clap and grin for that long.
但这里的问题是，如果特朗普真的相信这一切呢？
But the question here is what if Trump believes all of it?
如果他相信房间里每个人，或者至少相信那些共和党人会如此长时间地点头、微笑和鼓掌呢？
What if he believes everybody in that room or at least Republicans like nodding and grinning and clapping for that long?
如果他相信内阁会议上所说的话呢？
What if he believes what is being said at his cabinet meetings?
因为专制者总是面临同样的问题。
Because authoritarians always face the same problem.
所有人都害怕告诉他们坏消息。
Everyone is afraid to tell them the bad news.
他们身边的人为了争宠，会奉承他们并报喜不报忧，无论消息真假。
The people around them compete for their favor by flattering them and telling them good news, whether or not it's true.
通常能让独裁者保全的是他们对体系的掌控、他们的权力，以及他们压制选举、反对党和媒体的能力。
What usually saves authoritarians is their control over the system, their power, their ability to oppress elections, opposition parties, the media.
如果你拥有足够的权力，就能让政治屈从于你所认定的现实。
If you have enough power, you can bend politics to fit your reality.
但特朗普并非独裁者。
But Trump isn't an authoritarian.
至少现在还不是。
Not yet.
也不是那种类型的。
Not that kind.
他是一个渴望成为独裁者的人，却没有能力实施那种系统性的压迫。
He's a wannabe authoritarian who doesn't have the power to engage in that kind of systematic oppression.
他在最高法院的一场重要关税案中输了。
He just lost a major tariff case at the Supreme Court.
吉米·金梅尔的节目还在播出。
Jimmy Kimmel's still on the air.
幸运的是，美国人并不害怕批评他们的总统，而共和党人正在各地接连输掉选举。
Americans are thankfully unafraid to criticize their president, and Republicans are losing elections left and right.
在这个背景下，这位总统和共和党面临一个重大的政治问题：唐纳德·特朗普在对美国民众说教，而不是倾听他们的声音。
And in that world, it is a big political problem for this president and for the Republican Party that Donald Trump is lecturing the American people rather than listening to them.
因为昨晚国情咨文演讲中，特朗普说了近两个小时的话，一定让哈基姆·杰弗里听得心花怒放。
Because what Trump spent almost two hours saying at the State of the Union last night must have been music to Hakim Jeffrey's ears.
因为唐纳德·特朗普承认，他对总统任期面临的诸多问题没有答案。
Because Donald Trump said he doesn't have an answer to the problems facing his presidency.
他说他不需要对总统任期面临的问题给出答案，因为根本就不存在什么问题。
He said he doesn't need an answer to the problems facing his presidency because there are no problems facing his presidency.
一切都很顺利。
Everything is going great.
那么，谁敢在唐纳德·特朗普面前说相反的话呢？
And who around Donald Trump will dare tell him otherwise?
现在邀请我伟大的编辑亚伦·雷迪卡加入节目，来个角色互换，他会问我一些关于国情咨文以及如何理解它的问题。
Joining me now for a bit of a turning of the tables is my great editor, Aaron Redica, who's going to ask me some questions about the state of the union and how to think about it.
亚伦，欢迎回到节目。
Aaron, welcome back to the show.
嗨，伊兹拉。
Hi, Ezra.
你想从哪里开始？
Where do you wanna start?
我想从最后开始。
I wanna start at the very end.
特朗普演讲结束后，在阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格发言前，我一直在听他离开国会时的现场录音。
After Trump spoke, before we heard from Abigail Spanberger, I was listening to the feed that kept going after he was done as he moved through the Capitol.
杰克逊关于银行的演讲。
Jackson's speech on the bank.
他绝对绝对我
He absolutely absolutely I'm
太好了。
so good.
谢谢。
Thank you.
这是一种荣幸。
That's a privilege.
而且
And
这简直太棒了。
it was absolutely incredible.
每个人都说，干得好，你是最棒的。
Everybody was like, attaboy, you're the best.
那真是太精彩了。
That was incredible.
太棒了。
Amazing.
接着，有一个极其出色的时刻，有人说道：‘先生，这真是全垒打。’
And then there was a truly stellar moment when someone said, that was a home run, sir.
全垒打。
Home run.
真的是大满贯。
Really a grand slam.
大满贯。
Grand slam.
那是一次大满贯。
It was a grand slam.
不管其他什么情况，那根本不是大满贯。
Whatever else that was, it it wasn't a grand slam.
在他的演讲中，他仿佛活在一个与我们现实世界不同的现实中。
In his speech, he seemed to be living in a reality that is not the one we're actually living in.
你怎么看待这种脱节？
What do you make of that disjunction?
比如，他活在一个世界，而美国却在另一个世界。
Like, he's in one place and America is in another.
我认为他相信自己那一套胡言乱语。
I think he believes his own bullshit.
我认为，这一点在当前理解特朗普政府时是一个关键的钥匙。
And I think that is an important skeleton key at this point to understanding the Trump administration.
你还记得《纽约时报》评论版在第一届政府时期刊登的那篇著名的匿名文章吗？——‘我们是特朗普政府内部的抵抗力量’？
You remember when the Times Times opinion, in fact, published in the first administration, the famous incognito, we are the resistance inside the Trump administration?
当然，我记得。
Of course, I remember.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
就像那样，那是当时整个政府内部更普遍现象的一个极端版本，那就是有很多人并没有以忠诚谄媚的方式效忠特朗普本人。
Like, that was an extreme version of something that was more broadly happening inside that administration, which is that there were a lot of people who were not bought in in a loyalist sycophant way to Trump himself.
他们只是在他手下工作。
They were serving under him.
他们认为自己部分为他服务，部分为国家服务。
They understood themselves as serving partially him, partially the country.
他们认为他有一些好点子，也有一些坏点子。
They understood him as having some good ideas and some bad ones.
因此，在他周围形成了一种正常的机制，旨在一定程度上约束他。
And so there was some kind of normal structure around him that was built to somewhat restrain him.
我能打断你一下吗？
Can I interrupt you for once again?
你知道这有多有趣吗？
You know what's so interesting about that?
写那篇文章的人，当然现在他到处谈论这件事，当时在国土安全部，我认为那是国土安全部。
The guy who wrote that, and of course, he's out and about talking about it now, was in DHS, which I think is Department of Homeland Security.
国土安全部，这实际上对你说的这一点非常重要。
Department of Homeland Security, which I think is very significant actually in terms of what you're talking about.
对吧？
Right?
那里的人在某种程度上是最持怀疑态度的。
The people who were there were in some ways the people who were the most skeptical.
是的。
Yes.
如果你回顾特朗普第一任期第一年的国情咨文，当时的众议院议长会是谁？
And if you were looking at the first state of the union, the state of the union a year into Trump's first term, who would the speaker of the house have been?
是保罗·瑞安，另一位资深共和党人，他的政治生涯并非依赖于唐纳德·特朗普，也没有完全认同特朗普。
Been Paul Ryan, another senior Republican who did not owe his career to Donald Trump, who has not fully bought in on on on Trump.
特朗普已经完全掌控了共和党。
Trump has fully taken over the Republican Party.
他的政府真正充满了忠诚者。
His administration is truly stacked with loyalists.
在他周围，所有人都完全顺从于赢得他欢心的规则，也就是说，你只说他想听的话。
There is a complete submission all around him to the rules of winning his favor, which is to say you tell him things he wants to hear.
你奉承他。
You flatter him.
我觉得演讲中有一个既幽默又阴暗的反复出现的桥段
I thought one of the both funny and dark refrains
是
of
他不断说，哦，命名储蓄账户这件事并不是他的主意
the speech was where he kept saying that, oh, it wasn't his idea to name
特朗普
The Trump
特朗普账户。
savings accounts Trump accounts.
儿童品牌全新推出的特朗普账户，这名字不是我起的。
Children's brand new Trump accounts, and I didn't name it.
我没有命名它。
I did not name it.
我没有命名那个。
I did not name that.
把网站命名为trumprx.gov不是他的主意。
It wasn't his idea to name the website
顺便说一下，那个我也不是命名者。
called trumprx.gov, and I didn't name that one either, by the way.
他没有在演讲中提到这一点，但他在其他地方说过，把他的名字放在特朗普肯尼迪中心上也不是他的主意。
He didn't say this in the speech, but he said elsewhere, it wasn't his idea to put his name on the Trump Kennedy Center.
他身边的人知道，讨好他的一个方法就是以他的名字命名事物并呈献给他。
People around him know one way that you curry favor with him is you name things after him and present it to him.
他就会说，哦，什么？
And he's like, oh, what?
我？
Me?
为我？
For me?
你想用我的名字命名吗？
You wanna name it after me?
当周围的世界已经接受这种操控方式，而你又像他那样拥有强烈的自我意识，且缺乏严谨的思维模式或政策流程时，你根本不可能保持对现实的正常认知。
And when the world around you has bought into manipulating you that way, and you have an ego like he already has, and you don't have rigorous modes of thought or policy process, it is actually impossible that you will maintain a normal connection to reality.
即使对任何一位总统来说，做到这一点都已十分困难，而他根本做不到。
It's hard enough to do that just as any president, but he is not going to be able to do it.
果然，他根本没有做到。
And sure enough, he is not doing it.
是的。
Yeah.
就连演讲撰稿人也是如此。
It's even true of the speech writers.
对吧？
Right?
他们无法向他提出类似卡特式的演讲，承认人们所承受的痛苦，谈论这些问题。
They can't come to him and say, do a Carter type speech where you acknowledge the pain people are suffering, where you talk about problems.
他喜欢谈论血腥的困难，但我们稍后再谈，因为那真是一场充满血腥的演讲。
He loves to talk about bloody difficulties, but we'll we'll get to that later because it was really a blood filled speech.
但他们做不到这一点。
But they can't do that.
对吧？
Right?
他们无法向他提供与他世界观相悖的材料。
They can't present him with material that is at variance with his conception of the world.
因此，这使得他们的任务变得非常困难，我的意思是，如果我们讨论的是这场演讲是无聊还是有趣，它其实并不特别有趣。
And so it makes actually their task very difficult, and it was I mean, if we're talking about whether it was, like, boring or interesting, it was not super interesting.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得某种程度上是这样的，因为我的想法是这样的。
I I thought it was in a way because here's what I think.
我认为我们在媒体上，尤其是媒体的评论部分，在报道国情咨文时做得不好，因为我们把国情咨文当作一个完全封闭的
I think we do a bad job in the media, particularly the punditry side of the media covering the State of the Union, because we we treat the State of the Union as if it is a hermetically sealed
信息。
message.
我们对国情咨文采取了孤立主义的态度。
We're isolationists about the State of
国情咨文。
the Union.
是的。
Yes.
每个美国公民，或者非公民，都会置身其中，并据此形成看法。
That every American citizen or noncitizen for that matter will live inside and form impressions based on.
观看完整场国情咨文的美国人数量，更不用说总统向国会发表的最长一次国情咨文了，绝非无人问津。
The number of Americans who will sit through an entire State of the Union, to say nothing of sitting through the longest State of the Union delivered by a president to congress, it's not nobody.
观众人数将达到数百万。
It's gonna be in the millions of people.
但我认为，国情咨文最终成为了一个时刻，在这个时刻，总统向整个政治体系以及比他平时能触及的更多民众传递了一个明确的信号，表明他如何理解自己总统任期和国家所处的这一阶段，以及他打算为此做些什么。
But what the State of the Union ends up being, I think, is this moment when the president sends a single signal to the entire political system and to more of the country than he can normally speak to about how he understands this moment in his presidency and in the country and what, if anything, he intends to do about it.
而他昨晚传递的信号是，他活在自己总统任期的幻想版本中，完全无视美国人对他存在的任何问题，也没有任何解决这些问题的计划，因为他根本不认为存在需要解决的问题。
And the signal he sent last night was that he is living in a fantasy version of his own presidency, that he does not recognize any of the problems that Americans have with him, that he has no plan to do anything about it because he doesn't think there is any problem to solve.
他向在场的议员们传递了这一信号，暗示共和党议员们为他喝彩，但他们自己却可能丢掉工作。
And he sent that signal to the assembled members of like, the idea that Republicans in congress are cheering for this, they're going to lose their jobs.
有很大、很大的可能性——我认为这个可能性昨晚还上升了——在下一次国情咨文演讲时，迈克·约翰逊将不再坐在他身后。
There's a very, very good chance, and I think it went up last night, that at the next state of the union, Mike Johnson is not sitting behind him.
因此，对我来说，我们总是容易被国情咨文的表演性所迷惑。
And so to me, the we we have this tendency to get really caught up in the showmanship of the state of the union.
他把冰球队请来了。
He had the hockey team out.
他不断把人请上台。
He kept bringing people out.
他不断颁发这些奖章。
He kept presenting these medals.
这些东西在四十八小时内就会被遗忘。
That stuff is all gonna be forgotten in forty eight hours.
国情咨文在四十八小时内也会被遗忘。
The state of the union is gonna be forgotten in forty eight hours.
真正会留存下来的是总统选择的策略性定位，即他打算如何解决国家的问题以及如何解决他自身的问题。
What will last is the strategic positioning the president chooses about how to solve the country's problems and how to solve his own problems.
而他选择的策略是看看撒谎能否奏效，但撒谎的问题、把这当成真人秀来对待的问题在于，大多数美国人根本不会关注你。
And the positioning he chose was to see if lying about them will work, but the problem with lying about them, the problem with treating this like a reality television show is most Americans do not tune into you.
所以你不能只是对他们撒谎。
And so you can't just lie to them.
但这还不只是这样。
Well, it's not just that.
因为如果你告诉他们鸡蛋降价了，牛肉也可能降价，但食品价格却上涨了3%。
Because they also if you tell them eggs are down and maybe beef is coming down, but food prices are up 3%.
对吧？
Right?
人们购买食物
People buy the food
他说
He said
租金下降了。
rent is down.
对。
Right.
成本
The cost
鸡肉、黄油、水果、酒店、汽车和租金如今都比我就任时低了很多。
of chicken, butter, fruit, hotels, automobiles, rent is lower today than when I took office by a lot.
我觉得这很令人震惊。
I I thought that was shocking.
租金并没有下降。
Rent is not down.
是的。
Right.
任何在租赁市场中的人都知道，租金并没有下降。
Like, anybody who is in the rental market knows rent is not down.
他挑选了一些因疫情期间供应链中断而价格下降的商品。
He did cherry pick some things that are down because there were supply chain disruptions during the pandemic
是的。
Right.
针对某些特定商品。
On particular goods.
但通货膨胀虽然不算疯狂，却仍处于乔·拜登总统任期最后一年的水平，美国人的物价并未下降。
But inflation, it's not crazy, but it's around what it was in the final year of Joe Biden's presidency, and prices for Americans have not come down.
他也没有做太多努力来降低物价，但任何总统想要降低整体价格水平都很难。
He's not done a lot to bring them down either, but it's a hard thing for any president to bring the price level down.
但他既没有真正努力过，也没有取得成功。
But he has neither significantly tried nor has he succeeded.
明明没有却告诉别人有，这真是个愚蠢的举动。
And just telling people that you have when you haven't is a dumb move.
你知道吗，保守派政策学者尤瓦尔·莱文。
You know, Yuval Levin, the conservative policy scholar.
我一个月或两个月前请他上过节目。
I had him on the show a month or two back.
他提出的一个观点我觉得非常敏锐，关于特朗普的是：特朗普搞的是零售式治理，而不是批发式治理，他通过与各国、各公司的一对一交易来执政，而不是通过大规模改变全国政策的方式。
And a point he makes that I think is very sharp about Trump is that Trump governs retail, not wholesale, that he governs through these individual deals with countries, with companies, not by doing things that change policy for the most part all across the country.
移民问题是个反例，关税在某种程度上也是个反例。
Now immigration is a counterexample to this, and to some degree, the tariffs are a counterexample to this.
但你昨晚真正看到的是，特朗普吹嘘一系列非常具体、通常微不足道的政策，其中一些甚至算不上真正的政策。
But but something you really saw last night was Trump bragging about a series of very individual, usually modest policies, some of which are not even really policies.
所以特朗普的药品协议都是单独谈判的结果。
So Trump Rx are individual negotiations.
特朗普政府通过关税辩论和谈判，一直在与制药公司进行这样的操作。
The Trump administration has been doing with drug manufacturers through tariff debates and and and negotiations.
所以通过特朗普医保计划，你可以以更低的价格获得维格维，因为特朗普在关税谈判中成功争取到了这一点。
So you can get cheaper Wegovy through Trump Rx because as part of the tariff negotiations, Trump was able to extract that.
这并不是一个疯狂的举动，但它无法从根本上降低整个经济中的处方药价格。
It's not a crazy move, but it's not gonna allow you to bring down prescription drug prices across the economy.
要实现这一点，你实际上需要通过立法，让联邦医疗保险进行全方位的议价。
You'd actually need to pass legislation and have Medicare do across the board bargaining for that.
而围绕特朗普医保计划发生的情况是，他为个别药物争取到了更低的价格，而这些制药公司则通过提高其他药物的价格来弥补损失。
And the thing that's happening around the Trump Rx move is that he's extracting cheaper prices on individual drugs, and then those manufacturers are raising prices on the other drugs to make it up.
所以这本质上是在完全依靠沟通来争取胜利。
So it's trying to win entirely with communication, though.
对吧？
Right?
这场演讲确实有其战略意图，但同时也旨在制造梗和引爆话题。
And there was a strategic point to the speech, but also they were seeking to create memes, to create moments.
在所有这些表演中，他们最引以为豪的是他关于如何
The thing they were clearly proudest of among all those stunts was his little spiel about how
如果你同意这个说法，请站起来表示你的支持。
If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support.
美国政府的首要职责是保护美国公民，而不是非法移民。
The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.
然后他关注的是，你们这些人坐着呢。
And then he's focused on, oh, you guys are sitting.
你们这些人坐着呢。
You guys are sitting.
你们这些人坐着呢。
You guys are sitting.
这不是很可悲吗？
Ain't that a shame?
你们不站起来，真该感到羞愧。
You should be ashamed of yourself not standing up.
你们真该感到羞愧。
You should be ashamed of yourself.
你不觉得这行不通吗？
You don't think that will work?
不觉得。
No.
我认为没人关心。
I don't think anybody cares.
大多数人没在看，而且大多数人也不在乎。
Most people aren't watching, and most people don't care.
人们理解为什么民主党不喜欢唐纳德·特朗普。
People understand why Democrats don't like Donald Trump.
他们理解为什么唐纳德·特朗普不喜欢民主党。
They understand why Donald Trump doesn't like Democrats.
在政治中，你始终需要做的一件事，尤其是当你不受欢迎时，而社交媒体的动态让两党都更难做到这一点，就是去思考那个不喜欢你但可能喜欢你的人。
One of the things you always need to be doing in politics, particularly if you're unpopular, and the dynamics of social media have made this harder for both parties, is thinking about the person who doesn't like you but could like you.
不是那些已经喜欢你的人，也不是那些已经认为你做得很好的人。
Not the person who already likes you, not the person who already thinks you're doing a great job.
而他现在没有做的是给这些人任何东西。
And the thing he's not doing right now is giving those people anything.
从某种深层次上看，唐纳德·特朗普对我来说是乔·拜登的反面。
There's this deep way in which Donald Trump to me is the inverse of Joe Biden.
乔·拜登根本无法通过沟通解决任何问题，而且基本也没尝试过。
Joe Biden could not solve a single problem through communication and basically didn't try.
他从不为这些事邀功。
He didn't take credit for things.
到了任期末期，他其实已经不太能发表出色的演讲了。
He was not really that capable by the end of giving good speeches.
特朗普正试图通过沟通而非执政来解决他所有的问题。
Trump is trying to solve all of his problems through communication, not through governing.
而你看到的是，这种方法也不奏效。
And what you see is that that doesn't work either.
他正在做人们常说拜登本该去做的事。
He's doing all the things that people say, you know, Biden should have done.
他把所有东西都以自己的名字命名。
He's naming everything after himself.
他确保每个人都知道这件事。
He's making sure everybody knows about it.
但由于大多数人并不太关注政治或政策，事实上，这对他没有任何帮助。
But because most people just don't pay that much attention to politics or to policy, in fact, that's not doing anything for him.
人们对物价感到愤怒。
People are mad about prices.
我们应该谈谈移民问题。
We should talk about immigration.
他们对移民问题感到愤怒，也对唐纳德·特朗普现在制造的混乱感到愤怒。
They're mad about immigration, and they're mad about disorder that now Donald Trump is causing.
一个个去谈这笔交易或那笔交易、小费免税或其他什么，都无法说服他们改变想法。
And going piece by piece to this deal or that deal to no tax on tips to whatever is not gonna talk them out of it.
我是贾德森·琼斯。
I'm Judson Jones.
我是《纽约时报》的一名记者兼气象学家。
I'm a reporter and meteorologist at The New York Times.
近二十年来，我一直在报道极端天气，而这些天气正因气候变化而变得更加严重，因此及时、准确的天气信息变得愈发重要。
For about two decades, I've been covering extreme weather, which is getting worse because of climate change, And it's becoming more important to get timely and accurate weather information.
这就是为什么我们会发送这些定制简报，提前最多三天告知您可能影响您或您关心的地点的极端天气。
That's why we send these customized newsletters letting you know up to three days in advance about extreme weather that could impact you or a place you care about.
在《纽约时报》，您可以确信我们发布的每一条内容都基于我们所能获得的最准确、经过验证的科学信息，因为我们希望您能根据这些信息做出实时的生活决策。
At The Times, you can be confident that everything we publish is based off the most accurate scientific and vetted information available to us because we want you to be able to make real time decisions about how to go about your life.
这种工作让订阅《纽约时报》变得如此有价值，也是您支持基于事实的独立新闻的方式。
This is the kind of work that makes subscribing to The New York Times so valuable, and it's how you can support fact based independent journalism.
如果您想订阅，请前往 nytimes.com/subscribe。
So if you'd like to subscribe, go to nytimes.com/subscribe.
关于移民问题，有太多值得讨论的方面。
The immigration thing, there's so many things to talk about with this.
昨晚让我印象特别深刻的是，他讲述了多个令人痛心的故事，比如一辆卡车严重撞伤了一名女孩，还提到了夏洛特轻轨上一名乌克兰难民遭谋杀的事件。
One thing that really struck me last night is he told many terrible stories about a commercial truck that badly injured a girl who was then shown, and he talked about the murder in Charlotte on a light rail train of a young Ukrainian refugee.
没有人会忘记。
No one will ever forget.
那列火车上有人。
There were people on that train.
伊雷娜在生命最后几秒抬头看着袭击者时脸上惊恐的表情，没有人会忘记。
No one will ever forget the expression of terror on Irena's face as she looked up at her attacker in the last seconds of her life.
她当场死亡。
She died instantly.
但他犯了一个有趣而意味深长的错误。
But he made a an interesting and telling mistake.
她逃离了一场残酷的战争，却在美国被一名惯犯杀害，而这名罪犯是通过开放边境进入美国的。
She had escaped a brutal war only to be slain by a hardened criminal, set free to kill in America, came in through open borders.
他说，是开放边境和非法移民干的，但事实并非如此。
He's saying, you know, open borders, illegal alien did that, but that's not true.
杀她的人来自夏洛特。
The the guy who killed her is from Charlotte.
我觉得这一点特别能说明问题，因为它再次揭示了他内心的想法。
And what I thought was so revealing about that is that it showed again what's going on in his mind.
对吧？
Right?
他的默认反应就是回到那个让他走到这一步的旧模式。
The default is just like, I'm gonna kick back to the thing that got me here.
雷妮·古德被杀这件事根本不重要。
It doesn't matter that Renee Goode was killed.
亚历克斯·普鲁迪被杀这件事也不重要。
It doesn't matter that Alex Prudie was killed.
我不得不实际上从明尼阿波利斯和洛杉矶撤退，这也不重要。
It doesn't matter that I had to essentially retreat from Minneapolis and Los Angeles, actually.
对吧？
Right?
所有这些地方。
All those places.
因为我只会回到最初的想法，比如这些人会杀人。
Because I'm just gonna go to the original thing of, like, these people kill people.
他们是邪恶的，等等等等。
They're evil, etcetera, etcetera.
嗯，它
Well, it
展示了两件事。
shows two things.
一是你想想通常如何审查国情咨文，其间有多少跨部门会议，以确保总统不会说出任何不实之词。
One is you think about the process by which state of the unions are normally vetted, the amount of interagency meeting and making sure the president doesn't say anything that can be untrue.
特朗普政府因为对事实核查如此漠视，已经摆脱了这种约束和严谨性。
The Trump White House, because it cares so little about the fact checkers, has freed itself from that discipline and that rigor.
所以
And so
这简直是轻描淡写
That's like the understatement at
所以，没人阻止他犯下如此严重的错误，这正如你所说，很有说明性，但它揭示了围绕他的某种弱点和脆弱性——那就是他们做事不够谨慎。
the And so the fact that nobody stopped him from getting something that substantial wrong is, as you say, telling, but it's telling about a a kind of a weakness and a vulnerability around him, which is that they are not doing things carefully.
我想再谈谈移民问题，移民曾经是唐纳德·特朗普的核心议题。
The other thing I wanna note on immigration so immigration has gone from Donald Trump's dominant issue.
如果你看他任期初期、也就是一年前的净支持率——即支持率减去反对率——他在移民问题上的净支持率大约为+10，这非常非常强。
If you look at his net approval, so approval minus disapproval, at the beginning of his term, you know, a year ago, he has a net approval on immigration that is around plus 10, which is very, very strong
对他来说是这样。
for him.
这个数字很大，对那些不关注这些数据的人来说。
A that's a big number, yeah, for those of you who don't follow this stuff.
现在情况反转了。
It's now flipped.
现在根据你参考的民调不同，他的净支持率变成了负七、负十、负十三。
It's now you know, it depends on the poll you look at, but negative seven, negative 10, negative 13.
这在他最强势的议题上是一次重大失利。
So that's a big loss on his strongest issue.
他的经济表现更糟了。
The economy has been even worse for him.
情况进一步恶化了。
It's gone down even further.
但我觉得他对移民问题真正没理解的地方，奇怪地和民主党人对犯罪问题的误解如出一辙。
But the thing that I think he doesn't quite understand about immigration is weirdly the same thing Democrats didn't understand about crime.
在拜登任期后期，犯罪率已经大幅下降，尤其是暴力犯罪。
So late in Biden's presidency, crime has fallen quite a bit, violent crime in particular.
当人们谈论美国人对犯罪问题的愤怒时，很多人指出，如果你关注实际的犯罪数据，我们会发现暴力犯罪其实处于低位，这基本属实。
And when people talk about the anger Americans feel about the crime issue, there's a lot of pointing out that, well, if you're following the actual crime data, you know, we've you know, we're sort of at a violent crime low, and it was true ish.
我当时说过，其他人当时也说过，犯罪问题的升温反映了一种真实存在的感受，而这种感受在谋杀率数据中并未体现出来，那就是对无序状态的反感。
And and one thing that I said and that others said at that time was that the crime pulling is picking up something very real that is not getting measured in the murder rate, which is a dislike of disorder.
尤其是在后疫情时期，
There was, particularly in in in the post pandemic period
这不仅仅是反感。
bigger than dislike.
对吧？
Right?
这是一种反弹。
It's a recoil.
对无序的反弹。
A recoil of disorder.
但它是在回应无序的一种反应。
But it was picking up a reaction to disorder.
在美国的主要城市里，出现了帐篷城。
There were tent cities in, you know, major American cities.
有人公然跳车逃跑。
There was fair jumping out.
对吧？
Right?
尤其是在后疫情时期，发生了许多事情，让人感觉没人能掌控局面。
There there was a lot happening, particularly post pandemic, that had a a feeling of no one is in control.
在拜登任期即将结束时，关于这一点出现了大量优质研究。
And there was very good research on this coming out at the the end of Biden.
移民是其中的一部分。
And immigration was part of this.
当时出现了一波大规模涌入。
There had been a flooding.
部分原因是艾博特在运送人员，但确实有大量人流涌入美国。
Partially, this was Abbott busing people around, but there had been a flood of people coming into the country.
这些人都遍布全国各地。
And those people went all around the country.
你亲眼看到了。
And you saw it.
你在纽约地铁里就能看到。
You see it on the New York subways.
你身边处处可见，一切都显得失控，人们对此感到不安。
You see it around you, and things feel out of control, and people don't like.
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他们希望领导人看起来能掌控局势。
What they want from their leaders is just seem to be in control of events.
唐纳德·特朗普在移民政策上成了混乱的制造者。
Donald Trump, in his immigration policy, has become the bringer of disorder.
当移民与海关执法局、边境巡逻队和国民警卫队进驻这些城市时，反而带来了混乱。
When ICE and the CBP and the National Guard move into these cities, it brings disorder.
这导致美国民众在街头被自己的政府枪杀。
It leads to Americans being shot dead in the streets by their government.
没有什么比这更根本的混乱了。
There's no more fundamental form of disorder than that.
但当你去华盛顿特区，看到国民警卫队在那里时。
But you go to DC when the National Guard is there.
当你去洛杉矶，看到国民警卫队在那里时。
You go to Los Angeles when the National Guard is there.
这感觉不到安全与秩序。
That doesn't feel like safety and order.
这感觉像是被占领，人们不喜欢这样，他们会对此做出反抗。
It feels like being occupied, and people don't like it, and they react against it.
我的意思是，明尼苏达州的反应令人惊叹、勇敢而英勇。
I mean, the the Minnesota reaction was incredible and brave and heroic.
但特朗普失败的一个原因，不仅仅是因为人们认为他的移民政策残酷——尽管确实如此。
But one reason Trump is failing is not just because people think his immigration policy is cruel, though they do.
但从根本上说，人们所要求的是让事情不再失控。
But at its core, what they were asking for was things feel out of control.
我们不希望他们有这种感觉。
We don't want them to feel this way.
而特朗普以另一种方式让事情变得失控。
And Trump made things out of control in a different way.
他确实减少了边境穿越，但他却将一种近乎战争的状态带入了国家内部，而没人想要这样。
He did reduce border crossing, but then he brought this almost war into the interior of the country, and nobody wanted that.
他们想要的是生活平静而安全，而不是突然有戴面具的特工在他们的街道上奔跑并抓捕
What they wanted was for their life to feel calm and safe, not to all of a sudden have masked agents running through their streets and picking up
配备军用级
the With with military grade
武器。
weapons.
武器装备。
Weaponry.
杀人。
Killing people.
把你买披萨的人抓走，或者带走那些孩子和你孩子一起上学的人。
Up the guy who you buy pizza from, picking up somebody whose kids go to school with your kids.
突然之间，你看到美国人被联邦特工枪杀。
And then all of a sudden, you're seeing Americans gunned down by federal agents.
所以特朗普在那里大肆宣扬移民造成的流血事件。
So Trump is up there making this whole pitch about all the blood being spilled by immigrants.
我不认为他明白，他在某种程度上所激发的是一种愤怒障碍，而如今他所带来的是一种国家授权的混乱。
I don't think he understands that what he was, in some ways, channeling was an anger disorder, and now what he is the bringer of is a kind of state sanctioned disorder.
就连这些城市的警察部队，对吧，我不该说‘就连’。
Even the police forces, right, in these cities or I shouldn't even say even.
这些城市的警察部队对联邦机构出现在他们自己的城市感到恐慌，如果你仔细想想，这真是一个惊人的事件。
The police forces in these cities are freaking out about the federal presence in their own cities, which is just if if you think about that for a second, it's just this amazing event.
这部分非常可怕。
That part of it is very scary.
这并不是
It's not
这就是为什么我认为国情咨文揭示了特朗普的心理状态。
And and this is why I do think the State of the Union was revealing about Trump's mental state.
比如，把整个一个多小时四十多分钟的内容提取出来，看看他都说了什么。
Like, take the whole hour forty five plus and extract out what he said.
他说经济很好。
He said the economy is great.
从来就没差过。
Really never been bad.
有史以来最好的经济。
Best economy ever.
有史以来最好的经济。
Best economy ever.
他还说，美国面临的主要问题是嗜血、凶残、非法移民在街头横行，肆意制造混乱。
And he said the main problem America has is bloodthirsty, murderous, illegal immigrants roaming the streets causing havoc at will.
还有那些不愿站出来的民主党人。
And Democrats who won't stand.
还有那些不愿站出来的民主党人。
And Democrats who won't stand.
但这两件事都不是真的，根本就不是真的。
And the fact that neither of those things is true, like, it's just not true.
那些根本不是问题。
Those are not the problems.
那也不是什么好处。
That is not the or the benefit.
这并不是当前美国生活的结构。
That is not the structure of American life at this moment.
这不是人们的真实感受。
It's not what people feel.
这不是人们所反应的内容。
It's not what people are reacting to.
这让他和共和党陷入了困境。
It puts him and the Republican Party in a tough place.
你知道，关于移民问题很有趣。
You know, it's interesting about
移民问题。
the immigration.
我觉得人们很大程度上是因死亡和混乱而恐慌，但长期以来，人们一直说，你不能以民主为竞选主题。
I I think it's very much people freaking out about the deaths and the mayhem, but it's also for the longest time, people were saying, you can't run on democracy.
别谈这个。
Don't talk about that.
没人关心。
No one cares.
但关键是人们确实关心。
But the thing is people do care.
通过在这一点上铺垫，当威权主义或倾向于威权暴力的现象出现时，人们就知道该如何解读了。
And by preparing the ground on that, when authoritarianism or a tendency toward authoritarian violence showed itself, people knew how to read it.
对吧？
Right?
他们会觉得，哦，天哪。
They're like, oh, woah.
好吧。
Okay.
这就是我们现在所处的境地。
This is where we are now.
人们一直在谈论这件事，我也说过他们就像那个喊‘狼来了’的孩子，但他们却无端射杀了一名女性。
People have been talking about this, and I've been saying that they're, you know, The Boy Who Cried Wolf, but they just shot this woman for nothing.
他们只是毫无理由地枪杀了这个男人。
They just shot this guy for nothing.
而这一切是建立在一种紧迫感之上的，许多人曾认为这种紧迫感永远不会实现。
And it it was laid down on a bedrock of urgency that a lot of people thought would never be realized.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这也是其中一部分原因。
And I think that's part of it.
但还有另一部分，那就是他们为什么要如此大费周章？
But there's another part of it too, which is why are they bothering all this?
你在这里已经多次触及到这一点了。
And you're getting at it a lot here.
他们解决的只是一个勉强算存在的问题。
They're solving a problem that only sort of exists.
对吧？
Right?
而在竞选期间，他们声称的问题是这些人在吃我们的宠物。
And this during the campaign, the problem was they're eating our pets.
那么，这里真正要解决的问题是什么？
Like, what is the problem that's being solved there?
我不是说他不该是移民。
And I'm not saying that he shouldn't be an immigrant.
我的意思是，显然必须要有边境。
I mean, obviously, there has to be a border.
必须要有移民制度。
There has to be immigration.
但没有人真正支持无边界开放。
No but no one's really for open borders.
这纯粹就是一种误导。
Like, that's all just a canard.
对吧？
Right?
这就是为什么我提到夏洛特的那个案例，部分原因是，特朗普之前对黑人罪犯的极端种族主义关注，在某种程度上——虽然不是完全——已经被他对所谓非法移民的痴迷所取代。
And that's why I was talking about that case in Charlotte in part because an earlier Trump obsession, which was to be incredibly racist about black criminals, has been superseded to some degree, not completely, but superseded to some degree by his obsession with so called illegal aliens.
我总觉得这非常奇怪。
I always just find it incredibly weird.
这并非不可理解，因为我认为这源于他的种族主义以及他对世界的一些高度意识形态化的观点，但为什么他总是只担心特定群体犯下的谋杀案，而不是普遍的谋杀问题呢？
Not inexplicable because it comes from, I think, racism and certain highly ideological views he has about the world, but why he's always worried about murders committed only by a certain group of people as opposed to murder.
对吧？
Right?
我担心的是谋杀案的总数。
What I worry about is murders, total number of murders.
我或我所爱的人被杀害，或者任何人被任何人杀害的可能性。
The chance that I get killed or somebody I love gets killed or that, frankly, anybody gets killed by anybody.
他没错，谋杀案确实在减少，这是一件值得鼓励并为此感到自豪的事情，你也可以给警方更多资金去解决那些悬而未决的谋杀案。
And he's right that murders are dropping, and that's a thing to encourage and take credit for, and you could give police agencies more money to solve murders that are outstanding.
对吧？
Right?
如果你真想制定一项反谋杀政策，可以做的事情有很多。
There's a lot you could do if you want to have, like, an anti murder policy.
但只专注于非法移民实施的谋杀案就有点奇怪了，因为大多数谋杀案并不是由非法移民造成的。
But to just be laser focused on murders by illegal immigrants is just a little bit odd because most murders are not committed by illegal immigrants.
你刚才谈到独立性的问题，我有时会想，如果那个本可以不只在民调中获得41%支持率的特朗普，当时能拿到48%或51%的支持率该多好。
What you were just saying about independence, I sometimes think about the Trump that I think could have been not at 41% in the polls right now, but at 48 or 51%.
你的支持率。
Your approval ratings.
支持率。
Approval ratings.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，如果去年上台的特朗普面对的是已经好转、且相对强劲的经济，却不搞关税政策的话。
So the Trump who comes in last year, and the economy is already getting better and is kinda strong by then, and does not do tariffs.
只是推行一些广受欢迎的政策，比如通过大规模减税，然后把功劳全归自己，而不是拖累经济，也不用通过极端混乱且激进的关税政策把人们吓坏。
Just as some of his popular policies passes a bunch of tax cuts and just takes credit as opposed to holding the economy back to some level and also freaking people out with a very, very chaotic and aggressive tariff regime.
那个践行了自己承诺——至少是部分承诺——的特朗普，比如加强南部边境安全，这一点他们基本上已经做到了，并且专注于暴力罪犯。
The Trump who does what he said he was going to do or at least what he sometimes said he was gonna do, which was secure the southern border, which they've more or less done, and focus on violent criminals.
没错。
Right.
最糟糕中的最糟糕。
The worst of the worst.
最糟糕中的最糟糕。
The worst of the worst.
是的。
Yes.
一个少做了一些事、却因此有更多空间来吹嘘“特朗普医保”的特朗普，现在你可以买到奥司他韦了
A Trump who did less and then had more room to brag about Trump Rx, where you can now get Or to
专注于它。
focus on it.
或者就专注于一些事情。
Or to just focus on things.
你知道，你可以说他推动了哈马斯和内塔尼亚胡政府达成加沙协议。
You know, you can talk about having pushed Hamas and the Netanyahu government to a deal in Gaza.
他选择了这样做，我的意思是，我和你一起写过一篇关于这个的文章。
And he has chosen I mean, I wrote a piece about this with you.
他本可以做得少得多，从而获得巨大收益，但他却选择给自己制造了大量的政治麻烦。
He has chosen to create a huge number of problems for himself politically when he could have done a lot less and really benefited from it.
我的意思是，存在一种可能性，即他只要实现自己受欢迎的政策和承诺的底线，然后就停止行动。
I mean, there's a a world in which he got to the waterline of his popular policies and his popular promises and then just stopped.
因为在他的演讲中，散布着一些我认为对民主党来说非常危险的东西，那就是他乐于把他们的议题抢走。
Because sprinkled throughout his speech is something that I think is very dangerous about Trump for Democrats, which is he will happily take their issues away from him.
他会利用政府的权力来降低处方药价格，这是民主党长期追求的目标，而共和党却一再阻挠。
He'll negotiate down prescription drug prices using the government's power, a longtime Democratic priority that Republicans foiled again and again and again.
但特朗普只是想把这一点从民主党手中夺走。
But Trump is just trying to take that from the Democrats.
他会，我认为
He will I think
政变或多或少直接接管了它。
the coup more or less literally took it.
对吧？
Right?
那不是拜登的计划，只是被他们重新调整了一下吗？
Isn't that Biden's program that they've rejiggered?
不是。
No.
特朗普所做的是有点不同，但这两件事都在发生。
What Trump is doing is little bit different, but but both things are happening.
好的。
Okay.
至于移民问题，比如关闭边境。
And, you know, immigration wise, like, close the border.
对吧？
Right?
这在政治上具有很大的可行性和价值。
There's a lot of political viability and value in that.
其中有很多地方，特朗普完全可以采取更偏向班农式的民粹主义做法，从而从中获益。
There's a lot in there where Trump could just do the more Bannonite populist thing and have gained from it.
但他真的深信一系列非常愚蠢且残酷的理念，结果反而为自己制造了大量危机，而这还是在任何外部危机发生之前。
But because he actually sincerely believes in a series of very, very dumb and cruel ideas, he has ended up creating a lot of crises for himself, and that is before any have been created for him.
你知道的。
You know?
他现在面临的状况，和他第一任期结束时的全球大流行完全不同。
He's not facing as he was at the end of his first term, a global pandemic.
他也不太可能在本任期结束时面临经济衰退。
He's not facing as he might by the end of this term, a recession.
因此，如果事情开始出问题——任何总统都可能遇到的困难——他既缺乏足够的民意支持，也几乎没有政策回旋余地。
And so, like, if things begin to go wrong, the kind of things that any president has trouble dealing with, he's not working with a lot of goodwill or frankly even a lot of policy space.
他已经在这几项举措上花费了大量资金来应对。
He's used a lot of money on these different moves to respond.
这正是我们一开始讨论现实时的一部分原因。
That's part of why when we were talking at the beginning about reality.
对吧？
Right?
这里发生的事也在于，他们如此坚信自己所说的话，或者认为这在政治上有效。
That's part of what's going on here too is that they so believe what they say or they think it's politically effective.
我不确定他是否真的认为自己赢得了2020年大选。
I I don't know whether he thinks he actually won the twenty twenty election.
我对这一点仍然有些怀疑。
I'm still a little dubious about that.
也许他真的这么认为。
Maybe he does.
我完全不知道。
I have no idea.
显然，我无法进入他的大脑，而且我也不想进去。
Obviously, can't get into his brain, and I don't wanna be there.
但现实问题非常严重，因为这会让你相信，正如他昨晚在国会向国会所说的那样，民主党想作弊。
But the reality problem is an enormous one because that then leads you to believe that, as he said last night in congress to congress, right, the Democrats want to cheat.
他们想作弊。
They wanna cheat.
他们已经作弊了，而且他们的政策如此糟糕，以至于他们唯一能当选的方式就是作弊，而我们必须阻止它。
They have cheated, and their policy is so bad that the only way they can get elected is to cheat, and we're gonna stop it.
我们必须阻止它，约翰。
We have to stop it, John.
他们支持开放边境的原因是为了引入非法移民，这些移民随后会投票给他们，这就是为什么我们必须通过《拯救法案》。
The reason they want open borders is to bring illegal immigrants who are then gonna vote for them, and that's why we have to have the Save Act.
这简直是一种完整的世界观。
Like, it's a whole world view.
这非常简单。
It's very simple.
所有选民都必须出示选民身份证。
All voters must show voter ID.
但这一点真的让我意识到，好吧。
But it really struck me like, okay.
这就是边缘被置于中心。
Here's the fringe at the center.
对吧？
Right?
这里就是那些曾经被我们隔离起来的疯狂、偏执、荒谬的内容，过去右翼一直试图将它们隔离开来，不让自己沾染。
Here's the lunatic, paranoid, crazy material that we used to keep roped off that the right tried to keep in certain phases, tried to keep roped off from itself.
而现在，美国总统竟然真的在说，民主党想引进非法移民来为他们投票，所以他们才不愿站出来反对。
And here it is, the president of The United States actually arguing that Democrats wanna bring illegal immigrants in order to vote for Democrats, and that's why they won't stand up.
我的意思是，当你把这一切都放在一起时，真的让人难以置信。
I mean, it's just it's pretty mind boggling when you actually put it all together.
对吧？
Right?
这就是为什么你会走到那种地步——我不想多提吃宠物的事，但事情就是这么一步步发展到那一步的。
And this is how you get to I don't wanna dwell on the pet eating, but, like, that's how you get to the pet eating.
而且万斯甚至承认了，他说，你知道的，你得讲讲故事。
And and and Vance even admitted that, well, he said, you know, you gotta tell stories.
我觉得观察右翼的许多人挺有意思的。
I think it's been interesting to watch a lot of people on the right.
比如克里斯·鲁福，这位右翼挑衅者曾大力传播关于吃宠物的污蔑言论。
Chris Rufo, for instance, the right wing provocateur who was very much part of spreading the pet eating slanders.
他前几天在X上出现了，就像他最近偶尔做的那样，说：我不知道我们右翼的经验标准怎么了。
He was out on X the other day as he has been occasionally recently just being like, I don't know what's happening to our empirical standards here on the right.
我们所有人都在变得激进化，沉迷于阴谋论和垃圾信息，一个成功的运动不可能承受如此严重的网络脑腐。
All of our people are getting radicalized, and they're swimming conspiracies and and and slop, and a successful movement cannot have this much online brain rot.
而且有很多人指着他笑，因为鲁福本人也曾推动这个运动走向网络脑腐，我想他觉得自己还站得住脚。
And there's a lot of, I'd say pointing and laughing because Rufo has been part of pushing the movement towards online brain rot, and think I he feels he stays.
或者本·夏皮罗抱怨坎迪斯·欧文斯，她以前常上他的节目。
Or or Ben Shapiro complaining about Candace Owens, who used to be on his show.
她以前是在他的每日电线媒体旗下。
Who used to be on his under his Daily Wire umbrella.
是的。
Yes.
但这里正在发生一件广泛的事，那就是总统深陷右翼的脑腐之中，而那些原本想利用右翼的人。
But there is a a broad thing happening here, which is that the president is deep in right wing brain rot, and the people around him who wanted to weaponize the right.
他们想用右翼来激发自己的基本盘，赢得某些斗争，但他们无法阻止它。
They wanted to use it to amp up their base and get certain things and win certain fights, but they can't stop it.
他们建立了一套系统、一种势头和右翼的文化，而这些他们实际上根本无法控制。
They've set up a a set of systems and a momentum and a culture on the right that they do not actually control.
然后埃隆·马斯克接管了X，撤掉了版主，让所有纳粹分子重新回归。
And then Elon Musk took over x and took away the moderators and let all the Nazis back in.
事实证明，如果你让所有纳粹分子和种族主义者重新回来，这在右翼群体中确实有大量受众。
And it turns out if you let all the Nazis and the races back in, that has a real audience on the right too.
因此，总统层面正在发生的事，也在更低的层级广泛上演。
And so there is what is happening with the president at one level very high up is also happening down a lot lower.
而这不是一个能有效提出正常政治问题解决方案的运动。
And this is not a movement that is going to effectively come up with, like, normal solutions for political problems.
所以你始终面临一种危险，那就是它会演变为直接的压制，他可能会动用军队和其他手段来赢取那些无法通过投票获得的选举。
So you have always a danger that it moves into straight repression, right, that he uses the military and other things to try to win elections that he cannot win through votes.
但在我看来，目前确实存在一种真正的可能性。
But right now, it seems to me there is a genuine possibility.
这种可能性并不大，但共和党可能会因为唐纳德·特朗普拒绝为德克萨斯州的约翰·科宁背书而失去参议院席位。
It's not huge, but that Republicans will lose the senate because Donald Trump will not endorse John Cornyn in Texas.
如果他没有为德克萨斯州的约翰·科宁背书，而特朗普不喜欢科宁的一个原因正是科宁没有接受2020年选举舞弊的谎言。
And if he has not endorsed John Cornyn in Texas and Cornyn one of the reasons Trump seems to not like him is Cornyn did not buy in to the twenty twenty lies.
但如果他不支持科宁——而他确实没有支持——且投票已开始，那么肯·帕克顿，这位实力弱得多、深陷丑闻的候选人，可能成为共和党在德克萨斯州的参议员提名人。
But if he doesn't endorse Coronan, which he hasn't, and voting is sort of beginning, Ken Paxton, who's a much weaker nominee, absolutely scandal plague, never got
在许多方面，这都是我们这个时代最具问题性的人物之一。
problematic of our era in so many ways.
他可能会成为德克萨斯州参议员的共和党提名人。
Might become the Republican nominee for senate in Texas.
德克萨斯州是个红色州，帕克顿即便如此也可能赢下选举。
And Texas is, you know, a red state, and Paxton might win anyway.
但如果民主党提名塔拉里科，在我看来，他是那场选举中更强的候选人，但谁知道呢？你可能会陷入这样一种局面：我认为克罗克特或塔拉里科都赢不了科宁，但我认为帕克顿是可以被击败的。
But if Democrats nominate Talarico, who seems to me like their stronger candidate in that race, but who knows, You could end up in a situation where I don't think Crockett or Talarico could beat Cornyn, but I think Paxton is beatable.
而在一个民主党选情高涨、共和党参议员候选人却深陷丑闻的情况下，这可能会成为决定参议院控制权的关键选区，到时人们回望过去，会发现这一切都是特朗普造成的。
And in a situation where you have a Democratic wavier and a very, very scandal plagued Republican senate candidate that could end up being the decisive senate race, and then people look back, and it will have been Trump.
特朗普本可以介入以保护自己，但他却选择不这么做。
Like, Trump could have interceded to protect himself and just chose not to.
我之所以提到这一点，是因为我认为区分两种人至关重要：一种是清楚了解眼前局势、并以 cynical 的方式撒谎、利用阴谋论煽动基本盘的人；另一种是根本看不清局势、冲动行事、情绪化或至少缺乏战略眼光、反而伤害了自己的人。
And the reason I I bring this up is that I think it's really important to distinguish between somebody who has a clear eyed strategic picture of the situation in front of them and is acting cynically, lying and using conspiracy theories to rile up the base, and somebody who actually doesn't have a clear eyed picture of the situation in front of them and is acting impulsively and emotionally or at least unstrategically in ways that can arm them.
我认为我们现在看到的特朗普属于后者，而不是前者。
And I think what we're seeing right now is Trump is the second thing, not the first.
他不是一个精明的操纵者。
He's not a brilliant manipulator.
他是一个妄想型的操纵者。
He is a deluded manipulator.
关于2020年大选谎言，有趣的是，无论你认为特朗普是否真的相信这些谎言，或者他一开始不信后来才相信，关键在于，如果你明明知道他实际上输掉了选举，那么这种忠诚测试反而更严苛。
What's interesting about the twenty twenty lies, whether or not you think that Trump believes them or whether he didn't and then he does, what's interesting about it is that the loyalty test is stronger if you know that in reality, he lost the election.
而且你仍然愿意像国会中的一些人那样说，是的，我们真的不会认证这些结果，尽管他们明明知道这些结果是合法的。
And you're still willing to say, as people in Congress did, that, yeah, actually, we're not gonna certify those results even though they knew perfectly well that they were legit.
对吧？
Right?
这实际上才是更有力的举动，对吧？让人们对一个非现实的事物表示认同。
That's actually the more powerful move, right, to get people to acknowledge a non reality.
对吧？
Right?
这就是为什么人们总是拿东欧、拉丁美洲的历史，甚至希特勒、墨索里尼等例子作类比，因为让人相信他们明明知道是假的东西，比让人承认真实的事情更具有权力感。
And this is why people are always making references to Eastern Europe to, you know, the history of Latin America and even to Hitler and Mussolini and all the rest of it because making someone believe something they know is not true is a bigger power move than getting them to acknowledge something that's true.
昨晚我观看时，也在思考这一点。
And I watching last night, that was something I was thinking about too.
因为他们试图让人们接受、服从、承认一个根本不存在的现实。
Because, like, they're trying to get people to accept a reality, obey a reality, acknowledge a reality that doesn't exist.
有时候这能奏效，但很多时候并不成功。
And sometimes that works, but it often doesn't.
对吧？
Right?
它在衰退。
It decays.
我认为目前有一件事很有趣，某种程度上让我觉得难以理解，那就是关于特朗普和国会的情况：如果你仔细看国会实际上在做什么——这可是共和党主导的众议院和参议院——特朗普实际上正面临相当大的阻力。
I think one thing that is interesting and on some level a little bit inexplicable to me right now about how how things are going for Trump and congress is that if you actually look at what congress is doing quietly, and this is a Republican dominated congress at the house and senate level, Trump is actually facing, I would say, a fair amount of resistance.
他们虽然在高层级上同意了那些简直不可理喻的不合格且腐败的内阁任命，但却否决了比现代任何总统都多的副内阁级任命的撤回。
They have I mean, they have agreed to, at the high level, just unfathomably unqualified and corrupt cabinet appointees, but they have rejected force of the withdrawal of more sub cabinet appointees than we have seen from any president in the modern era.
如果你看看支出情况，特朗普根本没得到他想要的很多东西。
And if you look at spending, Trump just did not get a lot of what he wanted.
我的意思是，你知道，拉塞尔·沃格特提出了大量类似狗狗币风格的削减支出方案，但事实上，今年政府的支出比去年还多。
I mean, you know, Russ Vogt sent all these, you know, Doge inspired spending cuts, and in fact, the government is spending more this year than it did the year before.
国会中的共和党人否决了特朗普想要大幅削减的许多内容。
Republicans in congress just rejected a lot of what Trump wanted to eviscerate.
因此，特朗普与共和党之间正出现一种动态关系，而特朗普只关心少数几件大事。
So there is this dynamic that is happening between Trump and the Republican Party, which is Trump only cares about a couple of big things.
他在意你奉承他。
He cares that you flatter him.
他在意你对他的一些大谎言表示认同。
He cares that you agree with him on some of his big lies.
他在意关税。
He cares about tariffs.
他确实有一些非常在意的事情。
He he has some things that he really does trap.
不想再被弹劾了。
Doesn't wanna be impeached again.
不想再被弹劾了，但他们并没有以积极的方式迫使国会共和党人全面支持他的议程。
Doesn't wanna be impeached again, but they are not in an aggressive way riding herd on Republicans in Congress to back their agenda all the way through.
而且到目前为止，他们似乎连2026年的立法议程都没有。
And at this point, they didn't even seem to have a legislative agenda for 2026.
目前，这一届总统任期充满了随意性，这超出了人们的预期。
There's a lot of drift in this presidency at this point, more than I think one would have expected.
特朗普真正关心的有几件事，比如关税和移民。
There are a couple of things Trump really cares about, again, tariffs, immigration.
但在这背后，这一任期刚刚满一年。
But beneath that, I mean, this is it just passed the year mark in this term.
他们不该这么缺乏想法，这么缺乏行动力。
They shouldn't be this out of ideas, this out of movement.
但相反，特朗普似乎把时间花在了外交政策上，而这并不是人们对他期待的，而且他接下来的决定可能会带来很多问题。
But instead, Trump seems to be spending his time on foreign policy, which is not what people wanted from him, and a lot can go wrong depending on what he decides to do with
人们在第二任期往往会这样。
the people do in their second terms.
对吧？
Right?
他们厌倦了尝试那些困难的事情——比如立法，于是开始随意应付，因为他们对这些事有更多掌控权。
They get sick of trying to do things that are hard, which is legislative and just start winging it because they have more control over that.
这似乎正是特朗普目前所处的状态。
That seems to be where Trump is.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，弹劾这件事也很重要，因为我想不起来他是在众议院共和党人面前，还是在参议院什么场合说的，但你知道，他私下里跟议员们谈话，但所有事情总是会泄露出去。
I mean, the impeachment thing also, I think, is significant because he went I forget whether it was before the Republican House, but maybe it was some senate thing where, you know, he's talking to the members behind closed doors, but everything always leaks.
他对他们说，如果你们输了，他们会第三次弹劾我。
And he said to them, you know, if you lose, they're gonna impeach me a third time.
如果我们暂时把特朗普看作一个精明的政治操盘手——虽然我们之前一直在说他不是这样的人——但这家伙两次当选总统，完全不具备资格，根本不可能当总统，所以从某种意义上说，我不会给他什么政治建议。
And if we think of Trump as a cunning political operator for a moment, and we've been sort of talking about him not being, but the dude got elected president twice completely unqualified, like, shouldn't be the president he is, so, like, I'm not gonna give him political advice in one sense.
对吧？
Right?
我认为他意识到，第三次弹劾，首先从表面上看就极其轰动，但对他来说也非常危险，因为迟早会到一个时刻，而我们现在已经看到了，这正是你刚才说的让我想到的。
And I think he recognizes that the third impeachment, first of all, just spectacular on its face, but is very dangerous for him because there will come a point, and we are seeing it, and this is what you just said made me think of it.
迟早他们会不得不假装自己根本没参与过这一切。
There will come a point when they have to start to pretend they didn't do all this.
他们根本没有参与过整个事情。
They weren't participating in the whole thing.
他们对移民问题并不积极支持。
They weren't gung ho about immigration.
我观看时一直在想的一点是，他们对民主党人所坐的事如此大惊小怪。
And one thing I was thinking about a lot as I watched was they're making such a big deal about what the Democrats are sitting for.
他们不肯站起来。
They won't stand up.
但我想说，看看你们自己在为什么而站起来。
But I was like, well, look what you're standing for.
对吧？
Right?
你们一听到对手在选举中作弊就跳起来反对。
You're jumping up at the idea that your opponents are cheating at the elections.
你们对这个概念就跳起来反对。
You're jumping up at that concept.
你们对明尼苏达州索马里人的妖魔化也跳起来反对。
You are jumping up at the demonization of Somalis in Minnesota.
他哈哈，我的意思是，他说了一大堆话，但 actually 把他们称为索马里海盗。
He he I mean, he said a million things, but he actually called them Somali pirates.
对吧？
Right?
因为，again，他的大脑到现在已经默认会想到这些了。
Because, again, his brain just defaults to certain things at this point.
他们欢呼雀跃，就像在罗马斗兽场，而不是在美国国会大厦。
And they're leaping up and cheering like it's the Roman Colosseum, not the US capital.
所以，终有一天，他们所有人都得假装说，哦，你知道的，我其实没那样做。
So at some point, they're all gonna have to pretend, oh, you know, I wasn't really doing that.
对吧？
Right?
我只是为了减税来的，只是为了边境问题，对吧？
I was just there for the tax cuts, and I was just there for, like, over the border and right?
而要最有力地说明这一点，就是当他变得足够虚弱时，你会看到共和党人开始脱离他。
And how do you make that point most emphatically is if he gets to a weak enough point, you start to see Republicans peel off.
我知道现在听起来很疯狂，但这并不是真的。
And I know this sounds insane right now, but it's not.
我看出他害怕这一点：如果他第三次被弹劾，应该会有足够多的共和党人投票支持定罪，就像第二次那样。
And I see that he fears it, that there could be, as there should have been, certainly the second time around, enough Republicans voting to actually convict him if he's impeached a third time.
我知道我讲得有点太靠后了，但我真的觉得他害怕这种情况。
I know I'm getting way out into the future here, but I actually think he's afraid of that.
他也许确实害怕这一点。
He he might be afraid of it.
我觉得这非常不可能，虽然不是完全没可能，但要让他们的支持动摇，得冒出什么样的证据才行？我现在很难想象会有什么能打破他们对他的支持。
I I think it is very unlikely, not completely impossible, but but what would have to come out would it's hard for me to imagine what at this point would crack their support for him.
但在特朗普被弹劾定罪与我们现在所处的状态之间，我认为更可能发生的事是，如果民主党赢得众议院或参议院，将会展开大量调查。
But between Trump getting impeached and convicted and where we are now is, I think, the the more obvious thing that will happen if Democrats win the house and or the senate, which is a huge amount of investigations.
对。
Right.
特朗普昨晚做的一件非常聪明的事，就是推动禁止国会议员进行内幕股票交易。
And one thing that was very smart of Trump last night was to pick up the ban insider stock training from members of congress.
让我们也确保国会议员不能利用内幕信息谋取私利。
Let's also ensure that members of congress cannot corruptly profit from using insider information.
这非常——我的意思是，我看过很多关于这方面的民调。
And that's very I mean, I've seen a lot of polling on this.
这是最受欢迎的政策之一，但民主党并没有实施它。
That is about as popular a policy as exists, and Democrats did not implement it.
佩洛西与此紧密关联，人们因此关注她的回报情况。
And Pelosi is sort of very identified with this, and people believe, so they're looking at at the returns of her.
你现在在纽约地铁里有时会看到一些广告，推广在线股票交易平台，你只需点一下按钮，就能复制南希·佩洛西的投资组合，理由是：既然她知道内情，也许你也该这么做。
You you sometimes see these ads right now in the New York subway for a online stock trading platform where you can just, like, hit a button and have Nancy Pelosi's portfolio on the theory that, well, she knows what's going on, so maybe you should too.
是的。
Right.
他还拿这个开了个玩笑。
He made a joke about that.
他们为这一点挺身而出。
They stood up for that.
我简直不敢相信。
I can't believe it.
我简直不敢相信。
I can't believe it.
如果南希·佩洛西在场，她会站起来吗？
Did Nancy Pelosi stand up if she's here?
我怀疑不会。
Doubt it.
对他来说，这是精明的政治操作，但背后的问题是，人们无法容忍如此严重的政治腐败。
That's smart politics for him, but the the thing behind it is people don't like seismic levels of political corruption.
在他的政府和家族中，存在着我认为现代美国政治史上最为严重的政治腐败。
And within his administration and his family are the most seismic levels of political corruption I think that we have seen in the modern era in American politics.
一旦民主党掌握了传唤权，事情就会开始曝光。
And once Democrats have subpoena powers, things are going to start coming out.
是的。
Yeah.
这主要是关于关税的问题。
And that was an under just about the tariffs.
对他来说，关税被低估或未被充分认识的一个好处是，它让个人谈判变得至关重要。
That was an undersold or under recognized joy of the tariffs for him is that it makes personal negotiations crucial.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这些瑞士人必须带着这块劳力士金条来见他，才能降低他们的关税。
So this Rolex has the Swiss have to show up with, you know, this Rolex gold bar to get their tariff lowered that's given to him.
对吧？
Right?
如果我是唐纳德·特朗普、特朗普家族，或者政府中的许多关键成员，我会非常担心民主党获得传票权力。
I I think if I were Donald Trump or the Trump family or a lot of key members of the administration, I'd be pretty worried about Democrats getting out subpoena power.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
我会很沮丧，因为特朗普几乎没有采取任何措施来阻止这种情况发生。
I'd be pretty upset that Trump is doing so little to stop it from happening.
所以，如果你是哈基姆·杰弗里斯或查克·舒默，昨晚坐在观众席上，我认为你会对那场演讲的结果感到非常满意。
So if you're Hakim Jeffries or you're Chuck Schumer and you're sitting there in the audience last night, I think you're pretty happy with how that speech went.
因为你最担心的是特朗普和共和党认真转向一种策略、政策和言论，这些可能帮助他们在2026年减轻损失。
Because the thing you fear is Trump and the Republican Party getting serious about pivoting into a strategy, into policies, into messages that could help moderate their losses in 2026.
但你并没有看到特朗普本人这样做的任何迹象，也没有看到他愿意让共和党其他成员说出实现这一目标所必需的话。
And you didn't see any evidence of either Donald Trump doing that or of Donald Trump being willing to let the rest of the Republican Party say the things necessary for them to do that.
我可能不该以哈基姆·杰弗里斯和查克·舒默来收尾，但我觉得我们得停在这里了。
I hate maybe to end on Hakim Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, but I think we gotta stop there.
非常感谢你，伊扎。
So thank you very much, Ezra.
谢谢你，亚伦。
Thank you, Aaron.
本集《伊萨家族》由克莱尔·戈登和玛丽·卡西翁制作。
This episode of the Issa Clancho is produced by Claire Gordon and Marie Cassione.
事实核查由米歇尔·哈里斯、凯特·辛克莱尔和玛丽·玛格·洛克尔完成。
Fact checking by Michelle Harris with Kate Sinclair and Mary Marge Locker.
我们的高级音频工程师是杰夫·格尔布，额外混音由艾萨克·琼斯和艾哈迈德·萨霍塔提供。
Our senior audio engineer is Jeff Gelb with additional mixing by Isaac Jones and Ahmad Sahota.
我们的执行制片人是克莱尔·戈登。
Our executive producer is Claire Gordon.
节目的制作团队还包括安妮·加尔文、罗兰·胡、玛丽娜·金、杰克·麦克科迪克、克里斯滕·林、艾玛·凯尔贝克和扬·科贝尔。
The show's production team also includes Annie Galvin, Roland Hu, Marina King, Jack McCordick, Kristen Lin, Emma Kelbeck, and Jan Kobel.
原创音乐由阿蒙·萨霍塔和帕特·麦卡斯克尔创作。
Original music by Amon Sahota and Pat McCusker.
观众策略由克里斯蒂娜·西梅列夫斯基和谢农负责，《纽约时报》的音频部分由安妮·罗斯特瑟尔负责。
Audience strategy by Christina Cimilewski and Shannon of New York Times pending audio is Annie Rostrasser.
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