特朗普的白宫谁掌权？

他看起来就像是在主导政策的人。

He he seems like the the person running policy.

你不久前刚对他做了一个出色的专访。

You did a great profile of him not long ago.

他的角色是什么？

What is his role?

正式来说，他是副幕僚长。

So formally, he's deputy chief of staff.

非正式地说，我认为总统曾形容他处于权力金字塔的顶端。

Informally, you know, I think the president's described him as being at the top of the totem pole.

当他这么说时，指的是政策领域，这意味着他参与了几乎所有外交政策的讨论。

And when he says that, he's talking about policy, and that means he's involved in all the foreign policy discussions or almost all of them.

他基本上主导了移民政策的讨论。

He's involved in basically leading the immigration policy discussion.

他深度参与了早期几个月许多具有颠覆性的行政命令，比如对大学的打压。

He was deeply involved in many of the, you know, disruptive executive orders from the first few months, you know, the crackdown on universities.

你刚列出的那些事，都是头一百天里让所有人措手不及的举措。

You just list off a lot of the stuff that happened in those first hundred days that caught everybody off guard.

他主导了很多工作，写了大量这些行政命令。

He was driving a lot of he was writing a lot of those executive orders.

我认为他扮演的另一个角色是，他是白宫里的那种推动力，一种加速器。

And then I think the other role he plays is he is the voice you know, he's this sort of accelerant in the White House.

他总是为正在发生的事火上浇油，说我们必须更进一步。

The voice that's always like adding more fuel to whatever fire is happening and saying we have to go harder.

我们必须更严厉。

We have to go tougher.

我们必须做更多这类事情。

We have to do more of this.

我们不能放弃。

We can't give up.

我们不能投降。

We can't surrender.

我们必须挺过这些难关。

We have to push through this stuff.

因此，从这个角度看，他影响了很多事情。

And so in that way, he he influences a lot of things.

我的意思是，任何正在进行的讨论，他都会往火上浇油，添更多柴火。

I mean, he like, any discussion that's going on, he's gonna add more fuel to that fire, more kindling.

他会继续说，移民和海关执法局的特工拥有完全豁免权。

He's gonna go on and say something like ICE agents have total immunity.

于是，突然之间，明尼阿波利斯的边境巡逻队或移民和海关执法局特工觉得自己在行为上可以更肆无忌惮地突破法律界限，而他加剧了这种紧张局势。

And so suddenly, you know, CBP officers or ICE agents up in Minneapolis feel somehow freer to push the bounds of what is legal in their behavior, and and he's accelerated that tension.

我的意思是，他最令人震惊的举动之一，是在查理·柯克遇害后，在他的葬礼上发表了一番演讲，呼吁所有人都去观看，他在演讲中几乎把这描述成一场文明冲突。

I mean, I think the most jarring thing he's done was after the Charlie Kirk murder, give, you know, a speech that everybody should watch at his funeral in which he basically described this, like, clash of civilizations.

这简直是一场左右两派之间，关乎人类未来的全面战争。

It's like full on war for the future of humanity between the left and, you know, his side.

他们无法想象自己唤醒了什么。

They cannot imagine what they have awakened.

他们无法想象，在我们所有人之中已经觉醒的这支军队。

They cannot conceive of the army that they have arisen in all of us.

因为我们所坚持的是善良、美德与崇高。

Because we stand for what is good, what is virtuous, what is noble.

对于那些试图煽动暴力对付我们、挑起仇恨对付我们的人，你们拥有什么？

And to those trying to incite violence against us, those trying to foment hatred against us, what do you have?

你们一无所有。

You have nothing.

你们什么都不是。

You are nothing.

你们是邪恶。

You are wickedness.

你们是嫉妒。

You are jealousy.

你们是妒忌。

You are envy.

你们是仇恨。

You are hatred.

你们一无所有。

You are nothing.

你们什么都建不起来。

You can build nothing.

你们什么都生产不了。

You can produce nothing.

你们什么都创造不了。

You can create nothing.

我们才是建设者。

We are the ones who build.

我们才是创造者。

We are the ones who create.

我们才是提升人类的人。

We are the ones who lift up humanity.

你以为你能杀死查理·柯克？

You thought you could kill Charlie Kirk?

你让他永垂不朽了。

You have made him immortal.

这就像一场宣战演说，我认为他把这种态度带到了政府内部的整个对话中。

It was like a call to war speech, and I think he brings that attitude to the whole conversation inside the government.

在我们的分析中，我们将他描述为一位几乎纯粹是本我的总统的跳动本我。

In our profile, we described him as the pulsing id of a president who is already almost pure id.

我们国家集体首次隐约察觉到这一点，是在信号门事件中，当时我们老板、《大西洋月刊》主编杰弗里·戈德堡被意外拉入特朗普最核心层人员讨论也门轰炸行动的私人信号群组。

And one of the first ways we, the nation, kind of collectively glimpsed it was during Signal Gate, right, where our boss, the editor in chief of The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg, is inadvertently added to a private signal chain of Trump's top, top, top people discussing a bombing campaign in Yemen.

这令人着迷，原因很多，因为它揭示了将记者误加进包含机密信息的私人信号群组的极度草率。

And this is fascinating for a number of reasons for what it reveals, including just the sheer sloppiness to add a journalist to a private signal chain with essentially classified information.

但对我来说，甚至在我开始报道斯蒂芬·米勒、了解他真正权力和影响力之前，我就注意到，在那场辩论中，副总统和国防部长佩特·哈格塞夫，以及这些顶级人物来回争论。

But to me, even then, even before I started reporting on Stephen Miller and came to understand the true scope of his power and influence was that in that debate, you have the vice president and Pete Hagsef, the defense secretary, and, you know, all of these top people going back and forth.

而斯蒂芬·米勒就在这个群组里，从职位层级上看，他实际上是最低的。

Stephen Miller is in that chain, technically the lowest on the totem pole.

对吧？

Right?

他不是选出来的。

He's not elected.

他没有经过参议院确认。

He's not senate confirmed.

他不是内阁官员。

He's not a cabinet official.

有一次，斯蒂芬·米勒发表了意见，我这里稍微转述一下。

And at one point, Stephen Miller weighs in, and I'm paraphrasing a bit here.

但他基本上说：听好了。

But he essentially says, look.

据我了解，总统批准了对也门进行轰炸。

As I understand it, the president gave the green light, you know, to go bomb Yemen.

然后所有人都只是说：哦，好的。

And then everyone's just like, oh, okay.

我们干吧。

Let's do it.

他们就这么做了。

And they do it.

当我们与白宫内部人士交谈时，很明显，斯蒂芬·米勒的指令被视为唐纳德·特朗普本人的指令。

And when we were talking to people in the White House, it it became clear that a directive from Stephen Miller is viewed as a directive from Donald Trump himself.

你把米勒描述为，就像一个本就极度本我驱动的总统身上跳动的本我。

You described Miller as, like, the pulsing id of a presidency that is already pretty heavily id.

但米勒和特朗普之间感觉非常不同的是，特朗普显得随意而直觉。

But what feels very different about Miller and Trump is that Trump feels loose and intuitive.

米勒则显得高度意识形态化，非常、非常高度意识形态化，而且高度结构化。

Miller feels highly ideological, highly, highly ideological, and highly structured.

就他而言，如果他算是本我，那也是一个组织能力极强的本我。

That to the extent he's an id, he's a organizationally, very capable one.

他对国家权力、对他所担任的行政角色的权力运用，有什么理论？

What is his theory of the state of wielding power of the administrative role he has?

我认为他的理论比总统的更成熟。

I think it's more developed than the president's.

我认为总统并不是一个很有意识形态的人。

I don't think the president is a very ideological person.

我不认为他会读克莱蒙特研究所的论文，或者对过去三十年宪法的演变以及需要修正的地方有非常深入的看法。

I don't think he reads, you know, Claremont Institute papers or has a very sophisticated view of, you know, the the drift of the constitution over the last thirty years and and what needs to be fixed.

他知道他想做什么。

He knows what he wants to do.

我认为米勒的角色就是填补这些空白，他将过去五年中新兴的制度性MAGA阵营所提出的主张付诸实践，这些主张基本上认为，过去二三十年政府的行为严重偏离了宪法的初衷，我们必须通过一些手段来纠正这一点，而对华盛顿的大多数观察者——尤其是民主党人来说——这些手段看起来超出了宪法的范畴。

And I think Miller's role then is to fill in a lot of those blanks, and he has operationalized a lot of what the sort of emerging institutional MAGA world has started to argue in the last five years, which is basically an argument that says the way the government has been behaving over the last twenty, thirty years is way outside of what the constitution was intended to do, and we have to correct for that by doing things that for most observers in Washington, I think, for definitely Democrats, looks extra constitutional.

多么委婉的措辞啊。

What a what a gentle word.

但是

But

做那些显著扩大行政分支权力的事情，让行政分支和联邦政府介入几十年来保守派一直不希望联邦政府涉足的领域，比如大学、言论准则和私营企业。

the the to do things that that, you know, dramatically expands the power of the executive branch, involves the executive branch and the federal government and things that conservatives for decades never wanted the federal government to be involved in, you know, universities, speech codes, and private businesses.

我想补充一点，总统非常欣赏米勒，觉得他非常有用，确实拥抱过他并赋予他权力。

One thing I just wanna add here is that the president, I think, kind of adores Miller, sees him as very useful, has definitely hugged him and empowered him.

同时，总统有时也会与米勒保持一种微妙的距离。

It's also true that the president has held Miller at a kind of ironic distance at times.

你在椭圆形办公室里已经看到过这种情况。

And you've seen this in the Oval Office.

他会开玩笑说，我们其实并不希望史蒂文说出他所有的想法。

He'll say you know, joke about how we don't really want Steven to say everything he believes.

我想感谢就在观众席后面的史蒂文·米勒。

I wanna thank Steven Miller, who's right back in the audience right there.

我真希望他能过来。

I'd love to have him.

我喜欢在电视上看他。

I love watching him on television.

我真希望他能上台，讲讲他内心真实的想法。

I'd love to have him come up and explain explain his his true true feelings.

感受。

Feelings.

也许不是他最真实的想法。

Maybe not his truest feelings.

那可能有点过头了。

That might be going a little bit too far.

或者，我们在这篇报道中提到了2024年辩论准备期间的一个小故事，当时他们在讨论移民问题。

Or, you know, we reported in this story an anecdote from the debate prep in 2024 in which they're talking about immigration.

而米勒在谈移民问题的应对方案时，总统——我 paraphrase 一下——说类似这样的话：‘史蒂文，如果按你的想法，这个国家的每个人都会长得像你。’

And, you know, Miller was speaking about what the answer on immigration should be, and and the president, I'll paraphrase, said something like, well, if you had your way, Steven, everybody in this country would look like you.

米勒回答：‘没错。’

And Miller answered, that's correct.

然后继续讨论移民问题。

Then went back to debating immigration.

对吧？

Right?

他差不多说‘没错’，然后又继续回去辩论了。

He he sort of said that's correct and then went back to his debate.

但他对政府的总体看法是一种极端主义的观点。

But his broader view of government is a sort of maximalist view.

对吧？

Right?

就是不断施压、施压、再施压，直到出现反弹。

It is to push and push and push until you get any blowback.

然后再以更激进、或许更巧妙或稍作调整的方式继续施压。

And then to push again even harder in maybe a slightly more creative way or a slightly tweaked way.

但你知道，他因为对杰克·塔珀说的一番话而获得了大量关注。

But, you know, he got a lot of attention for something he said to Jake Tapper.

那是在马杜罗政权倒台之后，当时看起来美国可能有意通过武力夺取格陵兰。

And this was in the aftermath of the toppling of Maduro and Venezuela as it looked like The United States might be interested in taking Greenland by force.

史蒂文斯·米勒的观点——他是在阐述一种外交政策立场，但我认为这同样适用于政府、官僚体系和行政国家——他基本上就是说

Stevens Miller's view, which was he was articulating a foreign policy view, but I think it can be applied to government, the bureaucracy, the administrative state, was he basically just said

你可以尽谈国际礼仪和其他一切东西。

You can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else.

但我们生活在一个现实世界中，杰克，这个世界由力量、武力和权力所支配。

But we live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.

这些是自古以来就存在的世界铁律，你却说它们从一开始就存在。

These are the iron laws of the world that are you saying that the beginning of time.

而且，本质上，我们将不受法律、宪法、社会礼仪和规范的约束去做这些事。

And essentially, we are going to do that unconstrained by laws and the constitution and societal niceties and norms.

我们会做我们想做的事，直到我们被物理上彻底阻止为止。

We are gonna do what we wanna do until essentially we are all but physically stopped from doing that.

他们认为这种特定策略有效吗？

Do they believe this particular strategy is working?

我的意思是，我们刚才稍微谈过这一点。

I mean, we were talking a little bit earlier.

唐纳德·特朗普并不受欢迎。

Donald Trump is unpopular.

到目前为止，他非常不受欢迎。

He's quite unpopular at this point.

共和党在全国范围内所有具有竞争力的选举中都惨败。

Republicans are getting routed in elections that are in any respect competitive all over the country.

他们在非竞争性选举中的表现也低于预期。

They are underperforming in elections that are not competitive.

比如，白宫行事作风十分张扬。

Like, the White House walks with a lot of swagger.

但如果你用通常衡量白宫的标准来看——通过了多少立法、出台了多少重要法规、总统的民调如何、共和党在中期选举中的前景如何——

But if you were to judge it by most normal ways of thinking about a White House, how much legislation is getting passed, how many consequential rules are being finalized, how's the president's polling, how do the Republicans look at midterm elections.

这种不断冲击舆论边界的战略并没有推动国家前进。

Like, this strategy of relentlessly smashing through the Overton window is not moving the country.

它只是激发了反对力量。

It's mobilizing opposition.

我认为，目前共和党内部和白宫对当前局势的发展感到非常担忧。

I think there's an enormous concern in the Republican Party right now and inside the White House about the way things are going.

我认为我们确实已经开始了一种重新调整。

And I think we do have the beginnings of a recalibration.

我不认为这种调整会带来多大改变，也不认为大多数美国人会注意到这种变化。

I don't think it'll be a recalibration that changes much, and I don't think it's one that will most Americans will probably notice.

但回到那起严重的枪击事件，那种派遣武装的海关和边境巡逻人员组成流动小组，进入美国城市、砸碎汽车窗户、撞向抗议者并开枪的政策，正是由斯蒂芬·米勒直接推动的。

But, I mean, to go back to the PRETTY shooting, that policy of having roving bands of customs and border patrol agents militarized, go into American cities and break windows of cars and, you know, crash into protesters and shoot people was one that was directly driven by Stephen Miller.

当一名男子被射杀，任何看过那段视频的人都感到震惊——本应如此——米勒因此被边缘化了。

And when a guy got shot in a way that anyone who watched that video was horrified by or should be horrified by, Miller was put in the penalty box.

我的意思是，几周前确实发生了这样的事。

I mean, that that's what happened a couple weeks ago.

对吧？

Right?

所以，就像，就像

So, like like

你说的‘边缘化’是什么意思？

What does it mean when you say that?

米勒被罚下场是什么意思？

What does it mean that Miller was put in the penalty box?

这意味着汤姆·霍曼在移民政策方面一度被边缘化，一直与克里斯蒂·诺姆争斗。

It means Tom Homan, who had sort of been on the outs inside the White House when it came to immigration policy, had been warring with Christy Noem.

汤姆·霍曼被任命负责此事。

Tom Homan was put in charge.

霍曼并不是那种会停止逮捕和驱逐人员的人，但他更遵守规则，主张在监狱里逮捕人。

Homan is not someone who is gonna stop arresting and deporting people, but he is a much more by the book, let's arrest people at jails.

主张与地方官员合作进行逮捕。

Let's arrest people with cooperation with local officials.

他是一个倾向于缓和局势的人。

Let's deescalate the situation type guy.

而米勒，如果你看看霍曼前往明尼阿波利斯后他当时的言论，他其实是在找借口。

And Miller, if you look at what he was saying in those days immediately after Homan goes to Minneapolis, he was looking for cover.

我的意思是，就在那周早些时候，他发表了一份声明，说类似‘看起来海关和边境保护局没有遵守自己的政策，我们正在调查’这样的话。

I mean, he puts out a statement earlier that week where he says something like, well, I it looks like CBP didn't follow their own policies, and we're looking into that.

我的意思是，他试图与自己曾经推动的这件事划清界限。

I mean, he was trying to distance himself from this thing that he had pushed for.

但再次强调，正如迈克尔所说，这两件事可以同时成立。

And and but again, to Michael's point of both things can be true.

在某些地区，确实有一些调整，但这种调整对全国来说不会产生显著影响，因为只有斯蒂芬·米勒让霍曼看起来像个移民政策上的温和派。

There is, in some areas, a bit of a recalibration, but the reason that recalibration will not be felt in a super meaningful way by the country is because only Stephen Miller makes Homan look like an immigration squish.

对吧？

Right?

用任何其他标准来看，我们本可以在这里做一期播客，讨论汤姆·霍曼在移民问题上多么极端和极右。

By any other metric, we could be here doing a podcast about how Tom Homan's is so extreme and far right on immigration.

J是什么？

What is J.

D是什么？

D.

万斯的角色是什么？

Vance's role?

我认为万斯就像所有副总统一样，是个混合体，他与核心结构相隔一步之遥。

I think Vance would is is sort of a hybrid as all vice presidents are, he's one step removed from the structure, like the the core structures.

他没有任何直接的简报。

He doesn't have any direct brief.

但他确实参与高级战略会议。

But he is a part of the senior strategy meetings.

我的意思是，他就在现场。

I mean, he is in the room.

当他们在讨论接下来会发生什么时，他也在信号聊天群里。

He was on the signal chat, you know, when they're talking about what's gonna happen next.

所以他在政治上扮演着角色，四处奔走，向全国传达总统的讯息，越来越频繁地传递一种希望对他自身政治前途有利的信息，我认为这也是他的期望。

So he has a political role where he's, you know, out and about carrying the president's message to the country, increasingly carrying a message that hopefully serves him well, I think, is his hope for his own political future.

他把自己视为试图为总统带给国家的混乱带来意识形态和思想秩序的人。

He sees himself as someone who is trying to bring sort of an ideological, intellectual order to what the president has brought to the country.

他试图成为纽带，将特朗普的突发奇想、兴趣和愿望与某种治理理念、某种国家应如何运作的理论连接起来。

He's trying to, like, be the glue that connects Trump's whims and interests and desires to some theory of governance and theory of what the country, you know, should be doing.

然后他最后做的一件事就是像个网络喷子。

And then and then the last thing he does is he's kind of a troll.

我的意思是，他是白宫的首席喷子。

I mean, he's he's like a chief troll for the White House.

就像斯蒂芬·米勒一样，他经常越界，激怒自由派，在推特上挑起争端，诸如此类的事情。

Like Stephen Miller, he's out there a lot pushing the bounds, owning the libs, getting on fights on Twitter, things like that.

你提到他是首席意识形态家，特朗普是这样看待他的吗？

The your point about him being an a chief ideologist, is that how Trump sees him?

他们之间的关系在执政期间是如何演变的？

How has their relationship evolved over the course of the administration?

有一件事有助于他们之间的关系，甚至不只在政府内部，回溯到他如何成为特朗普的副总统人选，就有一群主要是年轻人围绕着J.

One thing that has helped their relationship, not even in the administration, but just going back to how he ended up becoming Trump's choice to be vice president, is there are a group of mainly young men around J.

D.

D.

万斯，包括唐纳德·特朗普的长子小唐纳德，他和万斯确实是真正的朋友。

Vance, including Donald Trump's oldest son, Don Junior, who he is sort of legitimately friends with.

这些年轻人很多都是在史蒂夫·班农的指导下成长起来的，他们在特朗普第一任期内就陪伴在他身边，属于真正忠于唐纳德·特朗普的派系。

And and these guys, a lot of these young men, they came up under Steve Bannon, and they were there with the president in the first term and were part of the faction that was actually legitimately loyal to Donald Trump.

因此，他算是这个小圈子、这个团体的一部分。

And so he's sort of part of this coterie, this crew.

他们中的许多人，比如JD·万斯，和查理·柯克关系也非常密切。

A lot of them you know, JD Bantz was also very close to Charlie Kirk.

所以他自带MAGA和特朗普的正统背景。

And so he comes with his sort of MAGA Trump bona fides.

你知道，在你抛开他过去对特朗普说过的一些话之后——那些话他声称自己已经转变了，现在理解得更清楚了。

You know, after you get over the the stuff he said about Trump previously, previously, which which he's claimed he he has evolved and he understands more clearly.

因此，特朗普在这一点上信任他。

And so in that way, Trump trusts him.

我还没怎么听到万斯和特朗普之间有紧张关系。

I haven't heard much tension between Vance and Trump.

我觉得他们之间没什么矛盾。

I don't think there's tension.

我觉得他们相处得不错。

I think they get along fine.

我觉得万斯很忙。

I think Vance is busy.

我觉得他正在为总统做事。

I think he's doing stuff to help the the president.

我认为那种未言明的紧张在于，万斯显然是2028年下一任的热门人选，但特朗普是否还会在位支持他还不清楚。

I I think the unspoken tension that is there is that Vance clearly is the next guy up in 2028, and it's not clear Trump's gonna be there for him.

我们真的不知道这会如何发展。

We just don't know how that's going to play out.

你知道的。

You know?

而且目前还不清楚特朗普是否把万斯视为明确的接班人。

And I it's not clear that Trump sees Vance as his clear successor at this point.

所以我觉得，这就是那种潜藏的紧张关系。

And so I think that's sort of the, you know, an undercurrent tension there.

是的。

Yeah.

特朗普迄今为止至少在万斯和卢比奥之间抛出了一个跳球，这并不让任何了解特朗普戏剧性风格的人感到意外。

Trump has kind of, so far, at least thrown a jump ball between Vance and Rubio, which should surprise no one who just knows Trump's flair for the dramatic.

当然，他不会直接指定一个明显的继任者。

Of course, he would not anoint an obvious successor.

对我来说，卢比奥是本届政府中最令人惊讶的故事之一。

Rubio to me has been one of the more surprising stories in the administration.

他本被视为副总统，却没有获得这个职位，反而被任命为国务卿，这当然是一份极其重要的职位。

He is considered vice president, doesn't get it, gets secretary of state, which is, of course, a tremendous job.

早期，网上有很多关于他在不同场合显得不自在的梗。

Early on, there's a lot of memes about him looking uncomfortable at different events.

他还兼任了国家安全顾问和国务卿。

Becomes national security adviser as well as secretary of state.

谈谈卢比奥的演变历程吧，他与特朗普之间权力关系的变化。

Tell me about Rubio's arc here, his role as power's relationship with Trump.

我会谈一个早期的关键转折点，我认为这个点被忽略了，因为你说得对。

I I'll speak to one turning point early that I think gets missed because you're right.

我的意思是，我们很多人的年纪都足够大，还记得2016年小马可竞选时对抗特朗普，对唐纳德·特朗普所代表的一切感到本能的厌恶。

I mean, many of us are old enough to remember little Marco in 2016 running against Trump, and being sort of viscerally appalled by everything Donald Trump stands for and represents.

我永远不会停止，直到我们阻止一个骗子接管里根的政党和保守主义运动。

I will never stop until we keep a con man from taking over the party of Reagan and the and the conservative movement.

因此，他无论如何都不像是会进入特朗普政府的明显人选。

So he's not an obvious choice to be in Trump's administration in any way, shape, or form.

但他还是进去了，看看他会做些什么，这挺有意思的。

And he gets in, and it's kind of interesting to see what he's gonna do.

早期，那正是狗狗币时代，还有他和埃隆·马斯克的所谓最佳友谊时期。

And early on, this is during the Doge era and the, you know, best friendship with Elon Musk era.

埃隆·马斯克，说得客气点，让很多内阁部长都感到厌烦。

Elon Musk is annoying, to put it mildly, a lot of these cabinet secretaries.

对吧？

Right?

因为他带着大锤进场。

Because he's going in with a sledgehammer.

他在各个机构里做了一些毫无助益的事情。

He's doing things that are not helpful at their agencies.

请记住，他彻底摧毁了美国国际开发署，而鲁比奥在拜登政府时期一直主张为该机构增加拨款。

And keep in mind, he decimates USAID, which is something Rubio has been arguing for more funding for during the Biden administration.

鲁比奥终于忍无可忍了。

And Rubio sort of had enough.

在这次私下的内阁会议上，他直接与马斯克正面交锋，毫不退让，直言你所说的简直就是胡说八道，你正在破坏一切。

And in this private cabinet meeting, he just goes head to head with Elon Musk and really stands up to him and goes after him and says, you know, what, like, what you're saying is bullshit essentially, and and you're hurting things.

还有几位其他内阁部长，比如肖恩·达菲，也参与了这次交锋。

And there's a few other cabinet secretary, Sean Duffy among them, who also take part in this.

但有人事后告诉迈克尔和我，在特朗普眼中，这真是一个关键转折点。

But someone told Michael and I afterwards that in Trump's eyes and estimation, that was a real turning point.

而且再次强调，尽管这次没有第一任期那样激烈的派系斗争，但这个人就是喜欢打擂台。

And again, this is someone who even though there aren't the warring factions this time that there were in the first term, this is someone who likes a cage fight.

对吧？

Right?

我相信我们实际上正在特朗普生日那天，在白宫草坪上举行的“美国250”活动中，上演一场拳击赛或类似的事情。

I believe we're actually having a cage fight or something close to it, on Trump's birthday as part of America two fifty on the lawn of the White House.

看到马可·卢比奥如此强势地为自己发声，我认为这让特朗普在心理上意识到：哦，这个不再是那个小马可了。

And to see Marco Rubio kind of stand up for himself in such a strong way, I I think helped Trump just mentally say, oh, this isn't little Marco anymore.

这是他首次在政府中真正提升自己权力的时刻之一。

And that's one of the first times when he really rises in his power in the administration.

但对我来说，卢比奥崛起的一个惊喜是，如果你想想特朗普如何描述MAGA，想想围绕特朗普的意识形态人士如何描述MAGA，它与之前的共和党最主要的区别之一就是对外政策上缺乏进取心。

But I guess one of the surprises to me about Rubio's ascendance is if you think about the way Trump described MAGA, if you think about the way the sort of ideologists around Trump described MAGA, one of its primary differentiators from the Republican Party before it is that it is nonadventurous in foreign policy.

它近乎孤立主义。

It's borderline isolationist.

它是美国优先。

It's America first.

它并不关心这些繁文缛节。

It's not, you know, concerned with all these niceties.

你可能会认为鲁比奥代表了一种更为传统的共和党外交政策。

And you would have described Rubio as representing a much more traditionalist Republican foreign policy.

你让鲁比奥代表一种略有不同的观点，并不奇怪。

And it's not crazy that you would have Rubio there as representing a a somewhat different view.

鲁比奥权力的集中似乎非常独特，他主导了大量涉及委内瑞拉的政策，而这正是他长期关注的议题，这一点非同寻常。

The consolidation of power under Rubio seems pretty distinctive, that Rubio drove a lot of the Venezuela policy that represents a long time Rubio obsession seems distinctive.

为什么他们会把这么多权力交给一个看起来并不像是这个政府天然人选的人呢？

Why have they put so much under someone who didn't seem like a natural fit for, you know, this administration?

我记得2013年左右在鲁比奥的办公室采访他，讨论为什么我们需要全面的移民改革，

I remember being in Rubio's office in 2013, I think, doing an interview with him about why we needed comprehensive immigration reform and

一条路径的决定。

a path decision.

是的。

Yeah.

还记得那些日子吗？

Remember those days.

所以卢比奥确实经历了一段转变，我认为这并不完全是出于他的懦弱。

So Rubio has really taken a journey, and I don't think it's entirely Craven on his part.

我认为在特朗普2016年胜选、他输掉选举之后，他就独立地发生了演变。

I think he evolved independent of Trump after Trump won in 2016, after he lost that election.

但卢比奥现在已经变得更加民族主义了。

But Rubio has come to be much more of a nationalist.

我认为在很多重要方面，他已经接受了特朗普对这些事情的看法。

I think in important ways, he has come to the Trump view on a lot of this stuff.

我认为在内部，谈到俄罗斯问题时，他是这些讨论中最强硬的那个人。

I think internally, when it comes to Russia, he is the hawk in these discussions.

你知道，他就是那个坐在维特科夫旁边说‘等等’的人。

You know, he's the one sitting next to Witkoff saying, wait.

我们并不真的想在这些问题上信任普京。

We don't really wanna trust Putin on all this stuff.

你知道吧？

You know?

这个人根本不值得信任。

Like, this is not a guy to be trusted.

但正如你所说，他正在大力推动总统第二任期伊始就秉持的这种泛美观点，即美国需要向南展示其力量。

But he is very much driving, as you said, this hemispheric view that the president came into his second term with, and this idea that The US needs to project its power south.

而且，他长期以来一直主张彻底改变古巴政权，我认为他把委内瑞拉当作实现这一目标的跳板。

And, you know, he's long pushed for, basically, a change in the regime in Cuba, and I think he's pushed Venezuela as a sort of stepping stone to that.

我觉得，从另一个角度看，鲁比奥和苏西的情况很相似，他们关系非常密切。

The other thing I think about Rubio is in a similar way to Susie, and they're very close.

他们都是来自佛罗里达州的熟人。

They know each other from Florida.

我认为，如果苏西能自己做主，鲁比奥本该成为副总统，而不是JD·万斯。

I think if Susie had gotten to choose, he you know, Rubio would have been the vice president, not JD Vance.

鲁比奥懂得如何向总统提供建议，既满足他自认为想要的东西，又帮助他避开陷阱，正是在这个过程中，他赢得了总统的信任。

Rubio understands how to advise the president into getting him what he thinks he wants while also trying to help him avoid pitfalls, and he's earned the president's trust during that process.

但他也非常谦逊。

But he's also very deferential.

他不是那个说‘不’的人。

He's not the guy saying, no.

你不能这么拍桌子反对。

You can't do this slamming the the table.

这并不是他在这一过程中的角色。

That's not his role in in this process.

我认为人们对特朗普有一个误解，而正是这一点让鲁比奥在外交政策上产生了巨大影响：特朗普并不是像他的许多支持者所希望或理解的那样，是一个纯粹的兰德·保罗式的孤立主义者。

And one thing that I think is misunderstood about Trump, but that has allowed Rubio to have a big influence in foreign policy is Trump is not sort of the pure, say, Rand Paul isolationist that a lot of his base hoped he would be or understood him to be.

特朗普反对的是这些——你知道的，他竞选时承诺结束无休止的战争，比如伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争，以及用美国的年轻人去海外推广民主价值观。

Trump's aversion is to sort of these, you know, he ran on a a promise to end forever wars, the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan, and, you know, sort of, using American boys and girls to a sport export democratic values abroad.

但他对现在我们可以说的‘瞎搞看看会发生什么’的策略持开放态度。

But he is open to, you know, now we can sort of say it's the f around and find out doctrine.

但在那之前，我称之为‘一击即走’策略，他实际上很支持这种短暂而有力的军事行动。

But before that, it was what I thought of as the one and done doctrine, which he was actually quite open to these short kinetic bursts of force.

对吧？

Right?

所以，在他理想的世界里，一次强有力的行动看起来就像对伊朗发动一场酷炫的电子游戏式打击。

So a single powerful, you know, ideally in his world kind of looks like a badass video game strike on Iran.

甚至委内瑞拉发生的事情，我们可能会看到其二级和三级连锁后果。

And even the what happened in Venezuela, and we may see the secondary and third level consequences.

对吧？

Right?

这对美国军队来说是一次巨大的成功。

But was a wild success for the American military.

对吧？

Right?

这是一次迅速而精准的行动，将一位大家都公认是‘坏人’的总统揪了出来。

It was a quick precise extraction of a president who everyone agreed, was a quote, unquote bad guy.

因此，他在某种程度上是支持这种外交冒险主义的。

And so he is open to those sorts of foreign policy adventurism in a way.

在我看来，特朗普政府的一个特点是，即使在高层，也存在明确的下达命令和执行命令的层级。

One thing that seems true to me about the Trump White House is that there are even at the high levels, where people give orders and people would take orders.

我们刚才还在聊斯蒂芬·米勒。

And, you know, we were talking about Stephen Miller a minute ago.

斯蒂芬·米勒显然是一个发号施令的人。

Stephen Miller is clearly somebody who gives orders.

在我看来，鲁比奥——你可以说我错了。

Rubio seems to me you can tell me this is wrong.

他属于那种听特朗普的，但同时也发号施令的角色。

Like, he is in the you know, listens to Trump but gives orders role.

他非常、非常有权力。

He's very, very powerful.

那个圈子里的其他一些知名人物，比如皮特·海格塞斯、图尔西·加巴德，他们是发号施令的，还是听命于人的？

Some of the other boldface names in that orbit, Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, are they in the gives orders, or are they in the takes orders category?

我觉得他们很不一样。

Well, I think they're very different.

海格塞斯的第一年过得非常艰难。

Hag Seth had a very rough first year.

而且，你知道，去年春天我们采访特朗普时，特朗普说黑格塞斯就像个想表现好却还没搞明白怎么做的孩子。

And, you know, when we interviewed Trump last spring, Trump was talking about Hag Seth as like a kid who's trying to do well but just hasn't figured it out yet.

你知道，当时对话的语气就是这样的。

You know, that was sort of the tone of the the conversation.

我认为特朗普喜欢电视上的黑格塞斯。

I think Trump likes Hagsteth on TV.

他喜欢黑格塞斯那种攻击性，那种反觉醒的改革主义，以及黑格塞斯试图带入五角大楼的男子气概。

He likes the aggression from Hagsteth, like the sort of anti woke reformism, the machismo that Hagsteth's trying to bring to the Pentagon.

但我认为黑格塞斯在这些事情上并不是什么高级顾问。

But I don't think Hagsteth is much of a senior adviser on this stuff.

我觉得，你知道，参联会主席凯恩将军可能更贴近特朗普，尤其是在这些事情上。

I think, you know, the the head of the joint chiefs, general Kane, is is probably, you know, more in Trump's ear when it comes to those things.

但黑格塞斯已经赢得了自己作为内阁成员的正当地位。

But Hegseth has earned his place as, you know, sort of a cabinet member in good standing.

图尔西·加巴德则不同。

Tulsi Gabbard is different.

我的意思是，她很早就失去了自己的位置。

I mean, she really lost her place early on.

她最后被安排到了一个总统一直持怀疑态度的机构——国家情报总监办公室。

And she ends up at an agency, the DNI, that the president's been skeptical of.

你知道，这是一个9·11之后成立的机构，政府里其他人也说过，我们其实不太确定它的结构是否合理。

You know, it's a post nine eleven agency that others, you know, in government have said, we're not really sure it's the right structure anyway.

去年她出现了一些失误。

She had some missteps last year.

由于她与中情局关系紧张，她被排除在许多国家安全讨论之外。

And because of her tensions with the CIA, she's been cut out of a lot of these national security discussions.

她现在跑去调查波多黎各的选举技术之类的事情，或者出现在富尔顿县。

You know, she's off doing investigations of election technology in Puerto Rico and things like that or showing up in Fulton County.

所以我不认为她属于同一级别的核心人物。

So I I wouldn't put her in that same top tier.

尽管如此，她确实在努力重新赢得总统的好感。

Although, she is sort of trying to win her way back into the president's good grace.

我的意思是

I mean,

我想指出你的方式，对吧？据我所知，加巴德目前就是这样做的，就是大力支持特朗普的各种阴谋论。

I I I wanna note the way you do that, right, which is by the way at least Gabbard is currently doing it as I understand it, which is by really going hard in backing Trump up in various conspiracies.

国家情报总监，你想要重新赢得总统好感的策略居然是提供错误信息并支持他，这在我看来非常能说明问题。

The director of national intelligence, the way you can win back the president is bad information and and supporting as a strategy seems very revealing to me.

看看帕姆·邦迪最近的听证会。

Or look at Pam Bondi's recent hearing.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，她正通过猛烈攻击民主党人和总统的所有对手来试图重新赢得总统的好感。

I mean, she is trying to win her way back into the president's good graces by just sort of going hard at at Democrats and all of his rivals.

你向特朗普总统道歉了吗？

Have you apologized to president Trump?

你们所有参与过针对唐纳德·特朗普弹劾听证会的人，都向特朗普总统道歉了吗？

Have you apologized to president Trump, all of you who participated in those impeachment hearings against Donald Trump?

你们都应该道歉。

You all should be apologizing.

你们坐着

You sit

然后在那次听证会的某个时刻，你突然无关地谈起道琼斯指数有多好。

And then at one point, you know, during that hearing as a sort of non sequitur talking about how great the Dow was.

道琼斯指数。

The Dow.

道琼斯指数现在超过了。

The Dow right now is over.

道琼斯指数现在已经超过五万美金了，我不知道你们为什么笑。

The Dow is over 50,000 doll I don't know why you're laughing.

我听说拉斯金，你是个很棒的股票交易员。

You're a great stock trader as I hear Raskin.

道琼斯指数现在已经超过五万了。

The Dow is over 50,000 right now.

标普指数

The S and P

试图把一个监督委员会变成我们刚才讨论的那样，就像是一个特朗普内阁会议。

Trying to turn an overs a house oversight committee into what we just discussed is a Trump cabinet meeting.

对吧？

Right?

我只是要赞扬一下总统。

I'm I'm just gonna praise the president.

他们就是这么做的。

That is how they do it.

是的。

Yeah.

总统的根本特点是，他在所有事情上、每一次互动中、在生活的所有宏观层面上都是交易性的。

The president's fundamental characteristic is that he's transactional in everything he does, in every interaction he has, in all the macro ways he lives his life.

他总是为了给自己谋取利益而进行交易。

He's always trading to get some benefit for himself.

这种表现方式在白宫体现为，它更像一个王室宫廷。

And the way that manifests in the White House is that it functions more like a royal court would.

你有那些朝臣参加派对，试图以各种方式取悦国王，而总统则不断要求被取悦。

You have the courtiers who come to the parties and try and please the king in various ways, and and the president is constantly asking to be pleased.

因此，这种现象在内阁层面比在白宫工作人员中更为明显。

And so that is, you know, from the cabinet level, you know, more so than the White House staff.

因为白宫工作人员是为苏西工作的。

Because the White House staff works for Susie.

这是不同的结构。

It's a different structure.

但在内阁层面，许多人每天都在琢磨如何取悦国王，以及能做些什么来让他高兴。

But the cabinet level, a lot of these people are constantly trying to figure out every day how to please the king and what they can do to please him.

其中一部分表现是，比如在电视采访或听证会上攻击自由派，或宣布一些为他服务的新举措。

And part of that is performing you know, owning the liberals in a TV interview or a hearing or announcing some new initiative for him.

另一部分则是推进这些政策事务。

Part of that is delivering these policy things.

其中一部分是做那些特朗普知道司法部在第一任期根本不会做的事，因为这些行为远远超出了正常范围，或者国家情报总监在第一任期也不会做的事。

Part of that is doing the things that Trump knows the Department of Justice would never have done in the first term because they're, you know, way outside the bounds of what's normal or the director of national intelligence would do in the first term.

而这就是他建立起来的体系。

And and that's the system he's built up.

就像你描述的那些漫长的内阁会议，其实是整个结构中的表演性部分。

Like, those those long cabinet meetings that you described are, like, the performative part of the whole structure.

你知道的吗？

You know?

那是它的公开版本，但这种事其实一直在发生。

Like, that's the public version of it, but that's happening all the time.

内阁成员们总是不停地待在白宫，只为能靠近他，好争取一次面对面交流的机会。

People are cabinet members are constantly just hanging out at the White House so they can be around the guy just so they can get FaceTime.

因为如果他想到你，对你来说就是好事。

Because if he's thinking of you, that's good for you.

我的意思是，巴拉克·奥巴马治下的政府就像一家公司那样运作。

I mean, Barack Obama ran a government like a corporation.

你知道吧？

You know?

他想高效一些。

Like, he wanted to be efficient.

他想有效果。

He wanted to be effective.

他希望所有规则都能被遵守。

He wanted all the rules to be followed.

他想要一套流程，每个人都各司其职。

He wanted a process, and everyone was playing their part.

但那并不是为了取悦他。

But it was not about pleasing him.

我经常在想唐纳德·特朗普的一件事，既因为我看到的，也因为我听到的，就是他是不是真的很忙。

One thing I often wonder about Donald Trump, both because of what I see and then what I hear, is whether he is busy.

他似乎比我知道的大多数人有更多时间看电视，看他的下属在电视上出现。

He seems to have a a lot more time than most people I know to watch TV, to watch his underlings on TV.

他们在听证会和有线新闻中的表现方式，部分原因是我认为总统可能会看到他们。

They're performing the way they are at hearings and on cable news in part because I think the president might see them.

他有时会接听来自像你这样的人的随机电话，甚至不知道对方是谁。

He's answering random phone calls from people like you sometimes without even knowing who's gonna be on the other end of the line.

他接受非常长、非常多的采访。

He gives very, very long interviews and a lot of them.

有些人告诉我，特朗普似乎有大把时间可以聊天。

Some people have described to me Trump just seeming to have time to talk.

你提到过奥巴马执政时把白宫当作一家公司来管理， famously 说，你知道，我只穿两种颜色的西装，这样就不用费心考虑穿什么了。

You you talked about Obama running the White House like a corporation famously saying, you know, I wear the same two colors of suits, so I'm never thinking about what I have to wear.

他把时间视为极其宝贵的资源。

He treated his time like an incredibly precious resource.

有人觉得他会不停地换台，这简直难以想象。

An idea that he'd be just channel flipping was sort of unthinkable.

特朗普是怎么度过他的时间的？

How does Trump spend his time?

他的日程安排是怎样的？

What does his schedule look like?

我的意思是，我们谈过那些层层上报到他那里的事情，但我不太清楚，与最近几任总统相比，他实际上在多大程度上参与了这些政策辩论和流程？

I mean, we've talked about things laddering up to him, but it's sometimes not obvious to me how actually inside these policy debates and processes he is compared to recent previous presidents?

他起床很晚。

He wakes up late.

奥巴马会在椭圆形办公室很早就开始工作，一直工作到晚餐时间，然后回到住所。

Obama would start work very early in the Oval Office, and, you know, work until dinnertime, and then he'd go back to the residence.

特朗普早上来得比较晚。

Trump comes down later in the morning.

我认为在普通的一天里，他都会面对直播镜头。

I think on an average day, he's in front of live cameras.

如果他在白宫，我猜每天大概一到三小时。

If he's at the White House, I don't know, one to three hours in a day.

我的意思是，花这么多时间对着镜头讲话或做类似的事情，确实不少。

I mean, that's a lot of time to be just talking on the record to somebody or doing something like that.

我认为其余的时间更加自由随意。

And I think the rest of the time is much more free form.

我认为那种追求效率和结构的方式对他并没有吸引力。

I don't think that sort of, like, drive towards efficiency and structure is something that interests him.

我认为他感兴趣的是每天能收获多少，能达成什么交易，以及从每个交易中获得什么。

I think what interests him is is how much he can get out of every day, what transaction he can have, and what he gets out of each transaction.

我认为这就是他对外交政策如此感兴趣的原因。

I think it's the reason he's been so interested in foreign policy.

他在外交政策上拥有巨大的权力，因此他可以随时打电话给各种世界领导人，而且他喜欢和任何人交谈。

Has enormous amount of power when it comes to foreign policy, so he can get on the phone with all kinds of world leaders, and he loves talking to anybody.

我的意思是，他根本不在乎，几乎谁的电话都接，比如友好地跟纽约新市长通话，或者试图调解偏远地区的战争。

I mean, he really has no problem you know, taking phone calls from just about anybody, you know, talking to the new mayor of New York in a friendly way, talking to try and settle wars in corners

就像来自皇后区的唐那样，一个典型的广播热线听众或主持人。

of the like Don from Queens, a consummate, you know, talk radio caller or host.

坦白说，这对他来说是一个非常好的媒介。

It's a it's a very good medium for him, frankly.

人们说他在电话里非常有吸引力。

People say he's incredibly compelling on the phone.

他周末经常打高尔夫。

He plays a lot of golf on the weekends.

他去自己的私人俱乐部，冬天去海湖庄园，天气好时有时去贝德明斯特，在那里他主持大局。

He goes to his private clubs, Mar A Lago in the winter, Bedminster sometimes when it's nicer, where he holds court there.

他很喜欢接收各种信息，但你说得对。

And and he loves a lot of inputs, but you're right.

这更像是一场持续不断的对话，而不是传统意义上的深入政策辩论。

It's much more of like a rolling conversation than it is sort of a a meaningful policy debate in the traditional sense.

确实如此。

That's absolutely true.

我不是总统。

I I am not the president.

我做播客。

I do a podcast.

我写一些专栏文章。

I do some columns.

我觉得很难把电话通话安排进我的一天。

I feel like I have trouble fitting phone calls into my day.

就像你知道的，我在沟通方式上不如我期望的那样顺畅。

It's like a you know, I'm not communicative in the way I'd like to be.

我听说这些事，也会看一些相关内容。

I hear about this, and I watch some of this.

我很好奇，为什么他没有更严格地安排日程，毕竟理论上，在另一个白宫，所有这些事情最终都会呈报给他。

And I wonder what like, how he is not more aggressively scheduled, given all the things that, in theory, in another White House would ultimately come up to him.

我觉得这有时让我只能想到几种可能性。

And I feel like it sometimes leads me to only a a couple of options.

要么这些事情根本没呈报给他。

Either of those things are not coming up to him.

所以他了解的信息不如巴拉克·奥巴马、乔·拜登或乔治·W·布什那么多。

So he doesn't know about as much as Barack Obama or Joe Biden or George W.

布什确实如此。

Bush did.

对吧？

Right?

他更信任自己的团队，只有当事情变得足够严重时，他们才会向他汇报，但被提报给他的事情的层级却大不相同。

He's trusting his people more if something gets bad enough, they bring it to him, but the level at which something gets brought to him is very different.

或者他并不亲自坐镇主持事务，也许他只是签个字，但像克林顿、奥巴马或拜登那样，他们希望看到顾问们当面争论、仔细阅读简报材料，而他并不在意。

Or that he is not sitting and presiding over things, that maybe he's brought a sign off, but in a way that, you know, Bill Clinton or Obama or Biden really wanted to see their advisers arguing things out in front of them and reading the briefing book, he doesn't care.

有事情才会呈报到他那里。

Something gets brought to him.

另一种可能是，我只是没看到这些事情究竟发生在他一天中的哪个时段，也许他们是在深夜通话，或者决策方式不同。

Another possibility is I'm just not seeing, like, where in his time this happens, and they're having more late night calls or the decisions are made in a different way.

但这些事情不可能全都安排得下。

But they can't all fit.

他不可能既保持松散、每天在镜头前露面一到三小时，又做到我所认为的前任们那样的全面监督。

They can't be both loose and in front of cameras for one to three hours a day and doing the level of oversight that I think his predecessors did.

那么，这里被推出来的是什么？

So what is pushed out here?

我认为，所有的总统在这方面都做得不一样。

I think I mean, all presidents have done this differently.

你知道，尤其是自从上一次选举以来，我听到不少曾为拜登工作的人批评说，他们在白宫时与他互动极少。

You know, I've heard, especially since the last election, quite a bit of criticism from people who worked for Biden about how little they engaged with him when they were in the White House.

在他任期的最后阶段，他建立了一套结构，会在某些事情上介入，但并没有置身于大多数讨论的中心，这可能损害了拜登政府。

And he had basically built a structure there at the end of his term where he would weigh in on things, but he wasn't at the center of most of the discussions going on, and that may have hurt the Biden administration.

你描述的是一位为政府、为白宫服务的总统，而我认为特朗普恰恰相反。

You're describing a a president who serves the government, who serves the White House, and I think Trump is sort of the reverse of that.

他是一个由白宫和周围政府机构服务的总统。

You know, he is a president who is served by the White House and the government around him.

另一点是，他一直喜欢和很多人通电话。

The other thing is he's always loved being on the phone with lots of people.

我的意思是，回溯他在纽约的时候，他经常给记者打电话，也经常给朋友打电话。

Mean, I going back to his time in New York, he would get on the phone with reporters all the time, get on the phone with friends all the time.

你知道吗，我跟卫生与公众服务部长鲍比·肯尼迪聊过，他说总统经常在深夜给他打电话。

You know, I talked to Bobby Kennedy, the HHS secretary, and he said he gets phone calls really late at night from the president.

所以我认为总统深夜也在工作，他会直接在深夜打电话给内阁成员或顾问，讨论各种事情。

So I think the president is doing work late at night, and he'll just call up cabinet members or advisers late at night to talk through things.

另外，总统还有一套我们还没提到的、属于他自己的内部小团队，这些助手只服务于他，为他提供信息，把外界的人引荐给他，完全绕开了苏西建立的正式结构。

You know, the other thing the president has, which we haven't talked about, is he has his own little superstructure inside the White House of aides who basically just work with him, who just provide him information, who just are sort of channeling people to him outside the structure that Susie's created.

因此，我认为他也在这个体系中运作，包括与众多朋友、企业高管和捐助者的联系。

And so I think he's operating in that world as well, and that includes contact with lots of his friends, contact with business executives, contact with donors.

我的意思是，他在第一年花了大量时间策划美国建国250周年的庆祝活动、新建一个舞厅、翻新肯尼迪中心，还有修整高尔夫球场等等。

I mean, the amount of time he spent in this first year on planning events for, you know, America's two fifty celebration, a new ballroom, redoing the Kennedy Center, you know, fixing golf courses.

我的意思是，这种事简直说不完。

I mean, you could just go on and on.

比如重新装修椭圆形办公室，在殖民地大厦挂上标识。

Like, redoing the Oval Office, putting signs up on the colony.

他花这么多时间做这些前任总统从没做过的事情，但他乐在其中，这正是他选择去做的事。

I mean, he's he's spending all this time doing stuff that no president has ever spent time doing, but he loves it, and that's what he chooses to do.

有人认为总统本该用这些时间做别的事，这种说法是不合理的。

It unreasonable people can argue that they would prefer their president to spend that time differently.

对吧？

Right?

正如迈克尔所说，特朗普会深入到极其琐碎的细节中。

I mean, as Michael was saying, Trump can get incredibly in the weeds.

我们曾听人说，当他重新设计椭圆形办公室时，他会亲自挑选不同色调的金色镶边，决定哪里该用哪种吊灯，甚至在马阿拉歌庄园开会时，他从窗外看到一棵树长得方向不对，就立刻叫停会议。

We have had people say to us, you know, when he is redesigning the Oval Office, he is the one who is looking at the different shades of gold inlet, in which one should go here, in which type of chandelier, and, you know, a a meeting at Mar A Lago being stopped because he notices out his window that a tree is bending the wrong way.

然而，也许大多数选民更希望他把这份热情和对细节的关注，用在了解明尼阿波利斯正在发生什么上？

Now, again, would perhaps most voters prefer he take that level of passion and attention to detail to figuring out what's going on in Minneapolis?

当然。

Absolutely.

有可能。

Potentially.

但他确实有能力专注于自己关心的事情，而他关心的往往并不是政策细节。

But he does have that capacity for what he cares about, and what he cares about is often not the policy weeds.

这是否导致他对自己的政府内部情况了解不足？

Does that lead to a deficit in what he knows about inside his own administration?

在这里，我不是说他是否像奥巴马或克林顿那样去阅读政策文件。

And here, I I don't mean is he reading in the way that Obama or Clinton would have on policy.

我是说，他的政府目前正在推进一系列非常重要、非常重要的项目。

I mean that the administration has a series of very, very, very major projects going on.

我是说，关税、委内瑞拉、移民与海关执法，这些都具有变革性、破坏性，有些甚至具有暴力性，且无一例外都影响深远。

I mean, tariffs and Venezuela and ICE and CBP enforcement and things that are transformational and disruptive and, in some cases, violent, and in all cases, consequential.

而许多总统处理这类事务的方式，是希望牢牢掌握整个进程，并不断收到最新进展报告。

And the way that many presidents would handle a series of things like that is they would wanna be on top of that process and have constant updates coming to them.

我想我真正想问的是，这似乎比我们习惯的政策流程要松散得多。

I guess the the question I am getting at here is this seems like it is a much less structured policy process than we are used to.

没错。

So Correct.

是总统对这些信息了解不足，还是他根本不想知道得更多？

Is what is suffering in that what the president knows, or is it the president actually doesn't wanna know more than he does?

而事情呈报给他的方式，比以往任何时候都更具关联性和针对性。

And the way things bubble up to him is more associative and precise than it would have been at another time.

我的意思是，这位总统治理和决策主要依靠直觉和本能。

I mean, it's a president who governs and rules on sort of raw visceral gut instinct.

迈克尔说他非常注重交易，而我认为这种视角有助于理解并解释他矛盾的行为：他总是在争取当下、每小时、每一天的胜利。

And, you know, Michael said he's very transactional a way I view it that I think is helpful in understanding him and explaining his contradictory impulses is he is someone who is always trying to win the minute, the hour, the day.

他试图赢得并拉拢眼前的人，这有时会让他行为极端。

He is trying to win over and woo the person directly in front of him, which can send him at times careening.

我记得他曾与梦想者交谈。

I can remember him talking to dreamers.

然后，治安官们被带进椭圆形办公室。

And then the sheriffs get brought into the Oval Office.

对吧？

Right?

而他对他们传达的信息却截然不同。

And he has a totally different message.

但当你观察时，要知道，我并没有像关注特朗普那样密切跟踪奥巴马的总统任期，但我的感觉是，奥巴马也像他曾经身为宪法学教授那样管理白宫。

But when you look you know, and again, I did not cover Barack Obama's presidency nearly as closely as I covered the Trump one, but my sense was that Obama ran his White House too, sort of like the constitutional law professor that he once was.

如果他要处理贸易问题，他会希望以非常结构化的方式听取来自经济专家等所有相关人士的不同意见，整合所有这些细致的信息后再做出决定。

If he was doing something on trade, he would wanna hear all different inputs in a very structured way from economic experts, etcetera, etcetera, all of the relevant people, synthesize all of that very granular information and make a decision.

对吧？

Right?

当你看看特朗普的一些贸易举措时——这些举措有时就像他政府的其他决定一样，在深夜通过Truth Social宣布，可能根本没有人审核过。

When you look at some of Trump's trade things, which sometimes are announced like much in his administration, in the middle of the night on Truth Social, that may not have been vetted by anyone.

比如，因为对马克龙感到愤怒，就对法国香槟征收关税。

You know, it's tariffs against French champagne because I am angry at Macron.

你同意还是不同意，这种领导国家的方式是好的？

Agree or disagree that that's a good way to lead a country.

你不需要一个严谨的政策流程来处理这种事，尤其是如果第二天你又会因为其他情况变化而撤销所有这些关税的话。

You don't need a rigorous policy process for that, especially if the next day you're gonna undo all of those tariffs because something else has changed.

奥巴马政府时期曾有一句话，他们经常说：任何最终呈递给总统的问题，都没有简单的答案，所有简单的答案都已经在他之下被解决了。

There was a line in the Obama White House that they would say a lot that any question that ultimately makes it to the president has no easy answer, that all the easy answers were already made below him.

我认为很少有问题是能送到特朗普那里，而他认为不容易解决的。

I don't think there are many questions that make it to Trump that Trump doesn't think are easy to answer.

我认为他并没有像艾什莉提到的那样，花很多时间依赖直觉，他拿到一份简报时，就会说：好吧，就这么办。

I don't think he's spending a lot of time like, to Ashley's point about gut instinct, I think he gets a presentation like, okay.

我们就这样做。

We're gonna do that.

他不需要去阅读原始材料。

He doesn't need to read the source material.

他不需要去回顾事情的来龙去脉。

He doesn't need to go back through the history of things.

你知道吗，负责联邦住房金融机构的比尔·普尔特——我不太清楚它的正式名称——会带着海报板走进椭圆形办公室。

You know, Bill Pulte, who runs the federal housing finance organization, I don't know the proper name for it, will come into the Oval Office with, like, poster boards.

我在特朗普第一任期时去过椭圆形办公室，见过为他准备的政策简报，内容基本上就是一页纸、一百字左右的要点，非常简略。

I've been in the Oval Office in the first term and seen briefing documents for Trump about a policy thing that that are basically, like, 100 word on a page bullet point things that they're not detailed.

就是给你五个句子，让你在做决定前了解这件事的核心。

It's like, here's, like, the five sentences you need to know about this thing before you make a decision.

不是说你需要看这500页的内容。

Not here's the 500 pages you need to know.

就像科学展览的立体模型一样。

Like like a science project diorama.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，这里是恐龙是怎么灭绝的。

It's like, here's how dinosaurs went extinct.

小行星，你知道的，就是这种程度。

The asteroid, you know, like, it's that.

我的意思是，这和奥巴马完全不一样，如果你拿他和奥巴马比较的话，奥巴马真的深入研究经济理论的细节。

I mean, it's just not the same kind of poly whereas Obama, if you're comparing him to him, is really in the weeds of, you know, economic theory.

而且，你确实推动了医疗改革。

And, I mean, you did health care reform.

我的意思是，没人比奥巴马更理解那项法案。

I mean, there's nothing like Obama understood that bill.

我不认为特朗普对这项宏伟的法案有同样的理解水平。

I don't think Trump has the same level of understanding of the big beautiful bill.

我的意思是，他知道小费不用缴税，但他并不清楚这项法案出台时盐分妥协的具体内容。

I mean, he knows there's no tax on tips, but he doesn't know exactly what the salt compromise was coming out of that.

他知道这是一项宏大而美妙的法案。

He knows it's big and beautiful.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这里可以收尾了。

Think that's a place to end.

另外，最后一个问题是，你会向观众推荐哪三本书？

Also, final question, what are three books you'd recommend to the audience?

阿什莉，我们先从你开始吧？

And Ashley, why don't we begin with you?

所以我推荐唐娜·塔特的《秘密历史》，这是一部绝佳的经典作品。

So I'm going to say The Secret History by Donna Tartt, which is just fantastic classic.

接下来这一本有点特别，但我还是要推荐一位作者，她就是安妮·帕切特，任何她的书我都推荐。

This next one is a little bit of a, but I'm gonna recommend an author and say any book by her, Anne Pachette.

她写的任何东西我都会读。

I will just read anything she writes.

她创作的现代小说非常出色、优美。

She just does wonderful, beautiful modern fiction.

既然我们谈到了特朗普，我丈夫迈克主要只读现代非虚构类作品，就是那种独立书店前排货架上常见的书。

And since we're talking about Trump, my husband Mike I mainly only read modern nonfiction, like what you see at the front table of an independent bookstore.

但我的丈夫迈克·班德，也是一位《纽约时报》记者，他写了一本关于特朗普竞选的书，叫《老实说，我们赢了这场选举》，讲述了特朗普为何落败的内幕。

But my husband Mike Bender, who's also a New York Times reporter, he wrote a Trump campaign book called Frankly, We Did Win This Election, the inside story of how Trump lost.

但我还是会推荐它，因为这本书非常棒。

But I would recommend it because it's great.

我有偏见。

I'm biased.

但他做的一件事是谈论前排的乔氏，还记录了一些关于特朗普支持者的片段。

But because one of the things he does is he talks about the front row Joe's, and he has these vignettes on Trump supporters.

如果你想真正了解他的基本支持者是谁，以及他们为何坚持支持他，这本书就是最佳选择。

And if you wanna understand really who his base is and why they stick with him, this is the book to do it.

所以，这就是我的三个推荐。

So those are my three.

迈克尔呢？

Michael?

如果我要再加一个，我会把本德的书加进去。

If I had a fourth, I'd put Bender's book there.

谢谢。

Thank you.

《我的名字进入美国》是一本由露西·艾弗斯撰写的散文集，属于个人随笔类。

An Image of My Name Enters America, which is a book of essays, sort of personal essays by Lucy Ives.

我去年读了这本书，读得非常开心，这是我很久以来读过最有趣的一本书。

I read it last year, and I had so much fun it was the most fun I've had reading a book in a long time.

书中收录了关于怀孕、独角兽和少女成长、爱情以及成长过程的散文。

There are essays about pregnancy, about unicorns and being a young girl, about love, about sort of growing up.

你真是个女权主义者。

You're such a feminist.

是的。

Yeah.

《异质记忆》作者是戈尔·维达尔。

Palimpsest by Gore Vidal.

这本书出版有一段时间了。

Came out a while ago.

我最近才读到。

I just read it recently.

我无法相信自己在华盛顿待了这么久却一直没读过它。

I can't believe I've been in DC so long and not read it.

这本书太好笑了。

It's hilarious.

这本书完全是R级的，常常不合时宜，甚至非常刻薄，但却是我读过的关于华盛顿最出色的回忆录之一。

It's totally r rated and often inappropriate and often very vicious and about as good a memoir of DC as I've read.

最后一本书是我很久以前读过的，但我总是推荐给别人，因为我觉得它是我在文学非虚构作品中见过的最杰出的范例。

And then the last book is a book I read a long time ago, but I always recommend it to people because I think it's, like, the best example of literary nonfiction I've ever read.

这本书叫《血液》，作者是道格拉斯·斯塔尔。

It's a book called Blood by Douglas Starr.

它实际上是一部关于血液的历史，这原本是我根本不会想到会想读的主题。

It's actually a history of blood, which is not something I would ever have thought I wanted to read.

但它从17世纪法国一个疯子和一头小牛之间的输血开始，接着带你了解血液如何彻底改变了战争的进行方式以及艾滋病危机的应对。

But it starts with a blood transfusion in seventeenth century France between a madman and a calf, and then it takes you through, you know, how blood revolutionized how we fight wars and and the AIDS crisis.

它把一种与我们每个人生活都息息相关的事物，用一种非常引人入胜的叙事方式呈现出来。

And it it takes something that's like a part of all of our lives and tells it to you in a narrative that is pretty remarkable.

阿什利·帕克、迈克尔·谢尔，非常感谢你们。

Ashley Parker, Michael Scheer, thank you very much.

谢谢你们想到我们。

Thank you for thinking of us.

谢谢。

Thank you.

本集《The Instrumentlunch Show》由杰克·麦科迪克制作。

This episode of The Instrumentlunch Show is produced by Jack McCordick.

事实核查由米歇尔·哈里斯负责。

Fact checking by Michelle Harris.

我们的高级音频工程师是杰夫·格尔布，额外混音由艾哈迈德·萨霍塔完成。

Our senior audio engineer is Jeff Gelb, with additional mixing by Ahmad Sahota.

我们的执行制片人是克莱尔·戈登。

Our executive producer is Claire Gordon.

节目制作团队还包括安妮·加尔文、玛丽·卡西翁、玛丽娜·金、罗兰·胡、克里斯滕·林、埃梅特·凯尔贝克和扬·科贝尔。

The show's production team also includes Annie Galvin, Marie Cassione, Marina King, Roland Hu, Kristen Lin, Emmett Kelbeck, and Jan Kobel.

原创音乐由艾哈迈德·萨霍塔和帕特·麦卡斯克尔创作。

Original music by Ahman Sahota and Pat McCusker.

观众策略由克里斯蒂娜·西梅列夫斯基和香农·巴斯塔负责。

Audience strategy by Christina Cimilewski and Shannon Busta.

《纽约时报》音频制作的导演是安妮·罗斯·施罗斯勒。

The director of New York Times pinning audio is Annie Rose Strosser.