迈向个人智慧与克制

大家好。

Greetings, everyone.

我一直在研究我称之为人类困境、他人称之为元危机的系统性故事，至今已超过二十年。

I've been working on, the system story that, I call the human predicament, others call the metacrisis, now for over twenty years.

我其中一个重大发现是，这并不仅仅是一个环境危机、能源危机、经济危机或政治危机。

And one of the big discoveries that I've had is it's not so much an environmental crisis or an energy crisis or an economic crisis or a political crisis.

它确实是所有这些危机的综合，但本质上是我们社会性灵长类的大脑与祖先生存环境严重脱节，却被迫适应由技术和各种事物构成的超常刺激世界，我们正努力理解这一切。

It's all of those things, but it's really a mismatch of our, social primate brain from a vast disconnection from our ancestral conditions to this supernormal stimulus mortgage board of technology and and stuff, world, and and we're we're trying to make sense of it.

因此，我认为所谓的答案在于我们的觉知、我们的意识、我们与他人互动的方式、我们与自然世界互动的方式，以及这些如何以人类、家庭、社区、区域为单位逐步扩展。

And so I do think the answers, quote, unquote, reside in our awareness, our consciousness, how we interact with other humans, how we interact with the natural world, and how this scales a human, a family, a community, a region at a time.

为了理解我们所处的位置，我们知道出了问题，虽然有很多人在努力寻找解决方案，但任何技术或政策只有在我们能看清大局并做出正确诊断时才有意义。

So in order to understand where we are, we know that something's wrong, but there's a lot of people working on solutions, but some technology or some policy only makes sense if we can see the bigger picture and have the correct diagnosis.

现在的病人是全球人类文明和生物圈，有一个故事将所有相关但分散的学科和事物联系在一起。

The patient now is global human civilization and the biosphere, and there is a story that connects all the disparate disciplines and things, that are relevant.

因此，我的观点是，我们有一个经济体系：我们获取想法，将能源和材料组合成产品，并在市场中通过美元、日元或欧元等价值形式来代表这些产品。

So my my framing is that, we have, an economic system that we take ideas and we combine energy and materials into products, and we represent those products, in the marketplace by putting a value on them like dollars or yen or euros.

我们每季度和每年都会循环这个过程，整个过程会引发我们的情绪、神经递质和内分泌 cascade，同时产生大量废弃物。

And we cycle through this every quarter and every year, and this whole process gives us feelings, neurotransmitters, and endocrine cascades, and the whole thing produces waste.

我将简要谈谈这个经济系统。

I'm gonna briefly talk about this economic system.

我们的文化对能源是盲目的。

So our culture is energy blind.

我们以金钱和技术的视角看待我们的进步、生产力和财富，却并未意识到，我们正生活在一个可能被称为‘碳脉冲’的时期——在这短短几百年里，我们抽取古老碳源的速度是自然封存速度的数百万倍。

We look at our progress and our productivity and our wealth with a money and a technology lens without realizing that we're all alive during what one day might be referred to as the carbon pulse, which is this few hundred year period where we're drawing down incredibly potent ancient carbon millions of times faster than mother nature sequestered it.

这些古老的碳与机器结合后，每年完成的工作量相当于约5000亿名人类劳动者，而现实中的真人劳动者仅有约50亿人。

This ancient carbon, when combined with machines, annually does the work of around 500,000,000,000 human workers, relative to around 5,000,000,000 real human workers.

这些东西并不是工资。

And this stuff is, not a paycheck.

这是一笔我们正在迅速消耗的信托基金。

It's a trust fund that we are drawing down rapidly.

我们目前正处于这张图表上黄星与红星之间的位置。

We are somewhere between the yellow star and the red star on this graph.

从气候角度来看，我们希望我们正处于红星位置。

From a climate perspective, we hope we're at the red star.

从经济、增长、舒适、便利和稳定的角度来看，我们希望我们处于黄星位置。

From an economic, growth, comfort, convenience, stability standpoint, we hope we're at the yellow star.

我不知道，但我们肯定处于两者之间的某个地方。

I don't know, but we're we're somewhere in there.

这种资源对人类经济的推动作用极其强大，如今人类经济规模（人口数量乘以人均消费的商品和服务）是1500年的整整一千倍。

This stuff has been so so incredibly potent for what it's done, that the human economy, which is the number of humans times the average goods and services consumed per human, is a thousand times bigger than it was in the year 1500.

我们当前经济体系产生的废弃物并未计入我们的价格，也基本未纳入我们的价值体系。由于氧气减少，鱼类正在向两极迁移。

The waste product from our current economic system is not included in our prices, or for the most part in our values, And we have fish, swimming polewards because of reduced oxygen.

我们大脑重量的约五十分之一已经是微塑料。

We have, one fiftieth or so of the weight of our brains is is microplastics.

鱼类、动物和鸟类物种的数量都在下降，所有这些数据都没有体现在我们的股市中。

We have declines in fish, animal bird species, all these statistics that aren't included in our stock market.

但真正的股市目前正急剧下滑。

But the real stock market is declining, quite precipitously at the moment.

我们每天都在努力复制成功祖先的情感状态，尽管我们所处的技术和社会环境已截然不同。

We go through our days trying to match the same emotional states of our successful ancestors in a wildly different, technological and social milieu.

我们现在是一种脱离了原有语境的物种，正在茫然地摸索。

We are now a species out of context, and kind of flailing around.

出现了许多侦察团队，试图不仅描述正在发生的事情，还至少指明我们可能走向的方向。

There's lots of scout teams that are popping up trying to describe not only what's happening, but at least directionally where we might head.

多年来，我的贡献是阐述人类生态系统各部分及其过程如何交织成一个涌现的故事，使一些表面的、还原主义的应对方案和解决方案变得更加模糊，并揭示了一条不同的前进路径。

My contribution over the years, is to describe how the parts and the processes of the human ecosystem fit together into an emergent, story, that makes some of the surface nominal reductionist responses and solutions, a little murkier, and, it it shows a different plan and, pathway forward.

这是一群椋鸟的群体飞行，每只椋鸟都是独立的个体。

This is a a murmuration of starlings, individual starling birds.

它们仅仅遵循一条简单的规则——实际上是三条简单规则。

They just follow one simple rule three simple rules.

靠近你的邻居，但不要靠得太近，并向群体中心飞行。

Fly close to your neighbor, don't get too close, and fly to the center.

仅仅遵循这三条简单规则，就会涌现出天空中我们所看到的美丽群体飞行现象。

Just following those three simple rules, there is an emergent phenomenon of these beautiful murmurations in the sky that we see.

没有领导者。

There's no leader.

这只是自然发生的事。

This just happens.

人类系统中也发生着同样的事情。

The same thing happens in human systems.

我们作为个体、家庭、小企业、公司，乃至国家，都自发地组织起来，以最大化我们的利润或工资。

We self organize as individuals, families, small businesses, corporations, and all the way up to nation states to maximize our profits or our wages.

这些利润和工资与能源、材料以及生态产出和影响密切相关。

Those profits and wages are highly, related to energy and materials and ecological output, impact.

最终，我们作为整个物种，正 functioning 为一个贪婪能源、盲目且无意识的超级有机体。

And what ends up happening is we are functioning at a species wide level as this energy hungry, blind, unthinking superorganism.

因此，在过去的二十九万年里，我们一直生活在狩猎采集部落中，直到开始通过农业储存剩余物资。

So what's happened since we, for for two hundred and ninety thousand years, we were in hunter gatherer tribes until we started to store surplus in, agriculture.

这开启了智人完全无法从过去预测的新轨迹。

And this started this new trajectory for Homo sapiens that was totally unpredictable from our past.

我们开始建立等级制度、储存系统、市场、国王、萨满、会计、战士等等。

And we started hierarchy and storage and markets and kings and shamans and accountants and warriors and all that.

同时，我们也开始向世界各地扩散。

And we started also to spread around the world.

然后在两百年前，除了横向农业，我们还开始垂直农业，并获得了地下碳脉冲在人类时间尺度上极为神奇的益处。

And then two hundred years ago, we in addition to farming horizontally, we started to farm vertically and had access to the incredibly magical on human time scales benefits from the carbon pulse underground.

接着，我们创造了货币符号，当货币被创造时，它在账本的另一侧对应着等量的货币。

Then we, started to create monetary markers, which when money is created, it it matches the amount of money on the other side of the ledger.

但当货币被创造时，它与剩余的铜、石油、黄金、海水、海豚或森林的数量没有任何关系。

But when money is created, there's no relationship to how much copper or oil or gold or seawater or dolphins or forests are left.

因此，我们持续通过数字和纸币创造这种等级制度，而如今人工智能正为整个系统提供加速助推。

And so we kept creating with digital, and paper money, this hierarchical system, and now AI is act acting as a turbo boost on the whole thing.

这个超级有机体利用所有这些机制来持续增长。

So the superorganism uses all these dynamics to continue to grow.

它并不是邪恶的。

It isn't evil.

它只是在最大化吞吐量。

It is just maximizing for throughput.

它根本不关心平等、生态系统或其他任何东西。

It doesn't real it doesn't care about equality or ecosystems or or anything.

它只是持续增长，即使增长本身已成为问题。

It just grows even when growing, is becoming the problem.

因此，未来有四种可能的情景。

So there are four potential scenarios in the future.

左上角是绿色增长，即我们拥有足够的技术来改善我们的状况，同时也有足够的盈余来修复环境。

In the top left is green growth, that we have enough technology, to improve our condition, but also enough surplus to heal the environment.

右上角是我称之为魔多经济的情景，即我们继续增长，但越来越多的经济资源被分配到采矿、能源和环境修复领域。

The top right is a scenario I call the Mordor economy, which is we continue to grow, but more and more of our economy is allocated to the mining and energy sector and the environmental remediation sector.

左下角是我们不再继续增长，而是在后增长世界中实现可行的衰退。

The bottom left, is we don't continue to grow, but we manage a viable descent in a post growth world.

我将此称为我播客的名字——伟大的简化。

I refer this to as the name of my podcast, the great simplification.

第四种情况是《疯狂的麦克斯》，我们在电影中已经见过。

And the and the fourth category is, Mad Max, which we've heard about in the movies.

我相信，无论我们设想怎样的未来，都必须面对这五位骑士，即金融主张相对于停滞或下降的实际生物物理现实不断增长。

I believe that no matter what future we envision, we have these five horsemen that we have to navigate, which is this increasing amount of financial claims on reality versus flat to declining actual underlying biophysical reality.

我们还面临地缘政治局势，过去在经济高速增长、水涨船高的时候，世界相当和平。

We have the geopolitical situation, which was quite peaceful on the way up, when all, boats were lifted by the rising tide of economic growth.

我们还有横跨六大洲的准时制供应链及其所包含的众多复杂组件。

We have the complexity of a six continent just in time supply chain and all the different, components, that comprise it.

我们还有社会契约，即我们彼此之间——无论是否为本国公民——的文明对话。

We have the social contract, which is the civil discourse between, our fellow countrymen and women, and non countrymen and women.

我们还面临气候变化、海洋酸化和生物多样性丧失的持续影响。

And we have the ongoing, impact from climate change, ocean acidification, and biodiversity loss.

因此，在个人、社区、城市、生物区域、国家乃至全球等多个层面，这一超级有机体都将持续运转，直到无法继续为止。

So the challenge at multiple scales at the level of the individual, the community, the city, the bioregion, the nation, the world is this super organism will power on until it can't.

因此，挑战在于同时构建起新的系统、结构、伦理、关系、价值观、意识——所有这些都需要同步变革。

So the challenge is to build systems, and structures and ethics and relationships, and values, and consciousness, and all the things that are gonna need to be changed in parallel.

因为一旦这个超有机体崩溃，我们的自由度就会减少。

Because once the superorganism breaks, then we're gonna have fewer degrees of freedom.

因此，面临的是人类在过去曾多次因环境变化而发生文化转变，我们创造了新的故事。

So what's at stake is humans have changed culturally many times in the past when the circumstances change, we developed new stories.

而在我们今天的文化中，正有越来越多的人开始觉醒，对上述挑战感到担忧并积极参与。

And within our culture today, rapidly, there are people becoming awake and concerned and engaged with the challenges that I've mentioned.

因此，即使在这次通话中，一种新的人类文化雏形正在萌芽，这正是我今天要谈论的内容。

And so even on this call, there is the mitochondria of a new human culture starting to build, and that's what I'm gonna talk about today.

大约二十五年前，威廉·里斯莫格和詹姆斯·戴维森合著了一本名为《主权个体》的书。

So around twenty five years ago, William Reismog and and James Davidson wrote a book called the sovereign individual.

他们正确地预测到，技术将变得如此先进，像网络和比特币之类的东西会迅速发展，使得某些个人能够获得如此强大的力量，从而超越国家边界，他们在这一点上部分是对的。

And they rightly predicted that technology would get so, cyber and Bitcoin and things like that would scale so much that certain individuals would be able to have so much power that they would transcend national boundaries and borders, and they were somewhat right about that.

但就‘主权’这一问题而言，它究竟意味着什么？

But taking this issue of sovereign, what does it mean?

当今许多讨论的问题在于，我们总是用狭隘的边界和还原主义的视角来看待事物。

A lot of the problems with today's discourse is we look at things using narrow boundaries, reductionist lenses.

因此，如果我们从更广阔的视角来看待今天‘主权’的含义，以及在面对我提到的种种障碍和挑战时‘活着’意味着什么，这就是我想今天和你们一起探讨的清单。

So if we take a wider boundary view at what it means to be sovereign today, what it means to be alive today, given some of the speed bumps and challenges I mentioned, this is the list that I would like to unpack, with you today.

我认为我列出了九个类别，每个类别下有三个子类别。

So I think I have nine categories and three subcategories on each.

第一个类别是智力层面的。

The first category is intellectual.

那么，面对这一切，我们该怎么做呢？

Like, what what do we do taking all this stuff on board?

确实存在一种基础性的现实。

And there's such a thing as foundational reality.

我刚才提到的那些基础内容，即能源、金钱和技术如何相互关联的生物物理与宏观经济体系，就是其中之一。

Some of that I just talked to you about at the underpinning, everything is the biophysical macroeconomic of how energy, money, technology fit together.

在此之上是我们进化而来的人类大脑与行为，再往上是生态与地球系统。

Above that is our evolved human brain and behavior, and above that is ecology and earth systems.

在这一切之上，是大量在我们社会中毫无意义的琐事和故事，但对我们世界和未来真正重要的事情，都集中在上述这三个层面。

Above all that is a lot of trivia and stories which are nonsense in in our society, but most of the things that matter in our world and our to our future are in these three categories.

第二个是开始以系统视角，而非带有盲区或单一议题的视角，来审视我们的处境。

The second is to start to look at our our situation, not from a lens with blinders on or a single issue, but from a systems lens.

因此，我们必须从狭窄的边界思维转向宽广的边界思维。

So we have to go from narrow boundary to wide boundary thinking.

这其中意味着，我们可以从关注事物转向关注联系，从线性思维转向循环思维，从孤岛转向涌现，从部分转向整体，从分析转向综合，从孤立转向关系。

Among the things this implies is we can move from thinking about things to connections, from linear to circular, from silos to emergence, from parts to holes, from analysis to synthesis, and from isolation to relationships.

因此，以宽广的边界视角来看待我们所面对的问题。

So a wide boundary lens of what we face.

同时，带着一种柔和的目光。

And with that, a softened gaze.

这是我们在碳脉冲过去几百年中的人类经验，你或许会思考并想象未来可能出现的各种情景。

Here is kind of our human experience the last couple hundred years in the carbon pulse, and you might think, and imagine various scenarios of what comes next.

我的教练和朋友们越来越多地——不知为何，他们中的许多人住在加利福尼亚——建议我放软目光，也就是不要对事物过于确信，而是去理解，并后退一步。

My coaches and friends increasingly, a lot of them happen to live in California for some strange reason, have advised me to soften my gaze, which is to be not incredibly certain about things, to understand things, and just to take a step back.

当你注视某人或某物时，你应该看向周边的视野。

And and when you're looking at someone or something, you look in the periphery.

看待我们的情况时也是如此。

The same thing with looking at our situation.

更进一步简化来说，当我们审视自身处境时，要接纳一些不确定性和谦逊，不要过于确定未来会发生什么。

To simplify that even further, embrace a little uncertainty, and humility when we look at our situation, and don't be overly sure of of what's gonna happen.

第二类是生理层面的。

The second category is physiological.

我们拥有一个进化层级：我们的微生物组、细胞、器官、肠神经系统，这些都是我们系统稳态的基础。

So we have an evolutionary stack, our microbiome, our cells, our organs, our enteric system, and that that's the homeostasis of our system.

在其之上是我们的后脑和边缘系统，以及我们的认知能力。

Above that is our our hindbrain and then our limbic system and our cognition.

我们以为它是这样的，但事实上，它是这样的。

We think it's like this, but in reality, it's like this.

这些系统出于良好的进化原因，是一层一层构建起来的。

And these systems, for good evolutionary reason, were built on top of each other.

而我们总是确信不疑、整天活在头脑中的认知，实际上在驱动我们的行为时，却是最小的部分。

And cognition, which we are so sure about things and we live in our head all the time, is actually the the smallest, when it comes to driving our behaviors.

如果我们感到不稳定或不安全，这种感觉将主导我们的行为，一直向上影响。

And if we feel unstable or unsafe, that is gonna dominate our behavior, and and all the way up.

如果我们感到不满，就会去寻求多巴胺、血清素或催产素，而无法像应有的那样去处理事实和情境。

If we're unsatisfied, we're going to seek out dopamine or serotonin or oxytocin, we're not gonna have the ability to, process in the way we should the facts and and the scenarios.

因此，在这种背景下，实现广泛边界主权的首要任务是滋养自己，通过健康饮食、锻炼、睡眠、冥想和心理健康来优先照顾你的身体。

So given that backdrop, the very first thing that we need to do towards wide boundary sovereignty is nourish ourselves, prioritize the nourishment of your human body by good food, by exercise, by sleep, by meditation, and and mental wellness.

我认为在座的许多人可能在这方面比我领先得多，但我最近才意识到这至关重要。

I think many of you on this call are probably way ahead of me, on this path, but I have recently come to know that this is hella important.

第二点是祖先的亲密感。

The second is ancestral intimacy.

有一种叫做迷走神经的神经，是人体最长的神经，它与信任和安全，或战斗与逃跑反应有关。

There's something called the vagal nerve, which is the longest nerve in the body, and this has to do with, trust and safety or fight and flight.

我们会与他人共同调节情绪。

And we co regulate with others.

上周末我刚在加利福尼亚参加了一个全然绽放的活动，天啊，我真的和其他人产生了强烈的情绪共鸣。

I was just in California last weekend at a full bloom event, and boy, did I co regulate with other humans.

我的迷走神经当时处于一种非常安全、安心的状态，体内充满了大量的催产素。

And my vagal nerve was in a in such a place that I felt safe and secure, and there was lots lots of oxytocin.

我们今天所做的许多事情，都缺乏与他人共度慢节奏、人性化时间的祖先亲密感，而如今许多人正缺失这种体验。

And there's so many things that we do in our days today that lack just the ancestral intimacy of spending time, slow time with other humans at a human pace scale, and many of us lack that, in today's age.

这是我的两位博士导师朋友。

A friend with my two PhD advisers.

这是我的教练，最近在米尔谷的照片。

This is my coach, in picture in Mill Valley recently.

这是在我朋友特里斯坦·哈里斯家里的场景。

This is, at my friend Tristan Harris's house.

是的。

Yeah.

看，这些是给你们的加州照片。

See, these are California pictures for y'all.

是的。

Yeah.

我越来越意识到这一点的重要性。

I I increasingly see the the importance of that.

最后，在生理层面，是多巴胺重置。

Lastly, under physiological is a dopamine reset.

正如你们许多人所知，我们如今有海量的选择，能牢牢抓住我们的注意力。

And as many of you are aware, we have a hell of a smorgasbord of options, that capture our attention.

我认为我们大脑中的内在技术非常重要，我们需要重置自己的多巴胺调节机制。

I think the inner tech in our brains, is is really important, and we need to reset our dopamine ratchet.

我今年早些时候在播客上采访奥黛丽·唐时学到的一件事是，她把自己的手机修改成黑白显示，这样当她看到一只黄色金翅雀，或春天盛开的绿色橡树，以及生活中所有真正充满色彩的事物时，就能获得更意外的奖励和愉悦感，而当你使用手机时，就不会产生强烈的多巴胺激增。

One thing I learned from Audrey Tang, who was on my podcast, earlier this year, is Audrey, hacked her phone so that she has everything in black and white, and that allows, more unexpected reward and enjoyment of life when you see a yellow goldfinch or a green oak tree, blooming in spring or all the things in life that are actually full of color, and you don't get the the high dopamine bursts when you're on your phone.

这是我的手机截图，我现在已经关闭了色彩滤镜，作为一个小小的例子。

So this is a picture of my phone, and I now have, the color filters, turned off as one small example.

色彩滤镜已开启。

Color filters turned on.

接下来是心理层面。

Next is psychological.

我认为，作为忙碌的人，我们必须认识到存在一种叫做认知负荷的现象，人类一次只能处理七个信息块。

And I think we, have to go through life, as busy people finding, we there's something called cognitive load, which is humans can carry seven chunks of information at once.

而当你只处理四个信息块时，实际上已经做得不错了。

And at four chunks, you're actually doing quite well.

但当你增加到五个、六个和七个时，你的处理能力就会下降。

But as you go to five, six, and seven, you lose capacity.

因此，我们必须强迫自己在日常生活中留出足够的空间。

So we have to force ourselves to build spaciousness into our daily routines.

除此之外，我们还需要设立休息区。

And beyond that, we have to build in zones of respite.

我的工作压力很大，因为每天醒来，我都要了解最新的气候变化动态、日本利率上调，或者某些战争消息。

I have a very stressful job because every day I wake up and I learn about the latest climate change, updates or, Japanese interest rates going up or some war thing.

我们人类并没有进化到能够每天24小时不间断地面对世界上发生的种种创伤性事件。

We didn't evolve to handle this much twenty four seven every day learning about traumatic things going on in the world.

我们必须善待自己，每天找一个两小时或四小时的窗口期，关闭所有这些信息，在一个符合人类正常尺度的宁静空间里恢复精力。

And we have to be kind to ourselves enough to find a two hour or a four hour window during your day where you shut all that off and find somewhere to recharge in a normal human scale zone of respite.

最后，属于心理元认知。

And lastly, under psychological metacognition.

元认知意味着思考我们是如何思考的。

Metacognition means thinking how we think.

我当然一直在思考。

So I'm thinking all the time, obviously.

但偶尔，我肩上会出现一个小小的声音，评论道：你刚才和安德鲁及其朋友们互动时，注意到自己的行为了吗？

But I actually, once in a while, had a little nade on my shoulder that is opining and say, did you notice what you did there with Andrew, and his friends?

这就像一个小小的观察型解说员，在我们独处或与他人相处时，对我们的行为进行点评。

And it it's just a little, observational play by play announcer, of our behaviors, when we're by ourselves or with others.

在这里的类别中，敬畏感是一个重要的方面。

Spiritual, of the categories here, awe is a big one.

我从自然界中感受到敬畏。

I get awe by the natural world.

我在这里的财产上安装了两台野生动物摄像机，即使我以前见过这些动物，我依然喜欢观看与我共享这片土地的野生动物。

I have two wildlife cameras on the property here, and even if I've seen them before, I love to see the animals that share the land with me.

你们很多人可能从不同的事物中感受到敬畏，但敬畏正是我们在这个帕尔梅托文化中所缺乏的。

Many of you might get awe from different things, but but awe is is something that that we lack, in this in this, Palmetto culture.

关联性。

Connectedness.

瑞安在冥想中提到，他向其他植物献上水，以此提醒我们与生命之网中的万物相连。

Ryan mentioned in the, meditation how, he made an offering of of water to other plants or to remind that we're connected to everything in the web of life.

多达一千万个其他物种与我们共同走过了进化之路，尽管我们是各自独立发展的。

Up to 10,000,000 other species share the same evolutionary path, that we took here, separately.

这是我狗，弗兰克。

This is my dog, Frank.

你知道，现在地球上有一亿只狗。

You know, there's a billion dogs on the planet right now.

那是另一个话题了，但我的狗是我的朋友。

That that's a separate issue, but my dogs are my friends.

我选择养狗而不是生孩子。

I chose to have dogs more than children.

但我们与地球上每一个生命体都紧密相连，而我们已经失去了祖先那种我们属于生命网络的连接。

But we're connected to every single living thing on the planet, and we've lost our ancestral connection that we are part of the web of life.

我们就是自然。

We are nature.

去生活、体现并铭记这一点，我认为很重要。

And to live that, embody it, remember it, I think is important.

为未知保留空间。

And to keep space for the unknown.

我并不相信所谓的上帝，因为我是一名科学家，我相信进化论，但我相信有些事情是我们未知的。

I don't believe in God, per se, because I'm a scientist and I believe in evolution, but I believe that there are things we don't know.

我在心中保持一种开放的态度，对待那些涌现的现象，这是完全有可能的。

And I keep a healthy air bound, in my mind about emergent things, and it is quite possible.

如果我告诉你过去三个月里发生在我身上的那些事，我确实倾向于相信，宇宙在以某种我们无法完全理解的方式向我们眨眼。

And if I told you stories of what's happened to me in the last three months, I do tend to believe that the universe is winking at us in some way that we can't quite understand.

所以，请为无法理解一切保留一些精神上的空间，并对未知保持开放。

So keep some spiritual, bandwidth for not understanding everything and and being open to to the unknown.

经济的。

Economic.

长期以来，我们的文化一直超支消费。

We have consumed beyond our means as a culture for quite a long time.

事实上，我们的整个经济体系是一种‘先买后付’的模式。

In fact, our entire economic system is a buy now, pay later sort of thing.

最终，这就像龟兔赛跑中的兔子。

And eventually, it is like the hare in the hare and the tortoise.

最终会迎来一场宿醉和一笔待付的账单。

And there's going to be a hangover and a and a bill to pay.

在我看来，接下来的三次经济衰退中，有一次会演变成大萧条。

One of the next three recessions will be a depression in in my book.

我认为接下来的两次经济衰退中，有一次会演变成大萧条。

I think one of the next two will be a depression.

因此，作为个人，你可以先简化生活，抢先一步。

And so as individuals, you can simplify first and beat the rush.

试着想象一下收入减少30%的生活。

Try to imagine living, with a 30%, pay cut.

试着想象你的生活拥有更少的能量和材料，更少的复杂性。

Try to imagine having, less energy and materials, less complexity in your life.

试着通过每周一天不消费或不购物，或其他类似方式来锻炼这种能力。

Try flexing those muscles by not consuming or shopping one day a week, or any other things like that.

如果你认真思考人类的行为方式，就会知道，作为文化整体，我们在危机发生前不会采取任何重大行动。

If you really think about how the human animal behaves, you know that we're, as a culture, not gonna do anything major before a crisis.

如果你真正内化了这一点，就能在被迫改变之前，提前做出决策和调整。

And if you really internalize that, it empowers you to make, decisions and and changes in your own life ahead of when we'll be forced to.

让-马克·吉亚科布奇最近是我播客的嘉宾，我想分享一个我觉得很有帮助的框架。

Jean Marc Giacobucci was a recent podcast guest of mine, and I'll I'll share a framework that I thought was pretty helpful.

他说，随着能源变得越来越少且越来越昂贵，人们将有三种应对方式。

He says as energy gets less available and more expensive, there'll be three ways to deal with that.

第一种是提高效率。

One is efficiency.

因此，我们利用技术让事物更高效，用更少的能量完成。

So we use technology to make things, more efficient by using less energy.

第二种是节制，或者说简朴，即个人主动选择不开车，而是乘坐公交车、步行或骑自行车，主动选择食用本地种植的食物，而不是从新西兰进口。

The second is sobriety or sobriety, which is personally choosing to instead of driving a car, you take a bus or, or walk or take a bicycle, that you actively choose to eat locally grown foods instead of importing something from New Zealand.

我想这次通话中有一些新西兰人。

And I think there are some New Zealand people on this call.

这是一种主动的选择。

It's active choice.

第三类是贫困，即我们不得不放弃这些东西，而这并非出于我们的选择。

And the third category is poverty, which is we're gonna have to do without those things, and it's not by our choice.

它会通过规则或市场使这些物品变得无法负担而强加于我们。

It'll be forced on us either by rules or by the market making things, unaffordable.

因此，我认为在这种情况下，效率和节制——先简化——是很好的想法。

So, I think efficiency and sobriety, in this case, simplify first, are good ideas.

接下来是缓慢。

Next is is slow.

放慢脚步，尝试以人类的尺度做事。

Slow down and try to do things at human scale.

我们有太多节省时间的科技设备，每天多省下五十六分钟，却用来刷脸书或玩《糖果传奇》。

We have so many time saving devices with technology that we save an extra fifty six minutes every day so that we can get on Facebook or play Candy Crush.

我们需要用人类尺度的事物取代科技，比如种土豆、照料花园、做拼图、写诗、聊天或弹吉他，在经济体系中放慢节奏，而不是加速运转。

We need to replace technology with human scale things, like planting potatoes or tending a garden or doing a puzzle or writing a poem, or having a conversation or playing guitar slowing down in our economic system instead of revving up.

什么样的技术会与广泛边界主权相关？

What sort of technology is going to be relevant, using wide boundary sovereignty?

我手头有一些关于这个的材料。

I have a frankly and and materials on this.

人类历史上最伟大的发明是什么样的技术？

What sort of technology is the best discoveries ever by humanity?

自行车是有史以来能源效率最高的装置。

The bicycle is the most energy efficient device ever created.

这个故事。

The story.

《龙与地下城》，在座的有些人，很多男性都玩过。

Dungeons and Dragons, some of you, a lot of men on this call.

我青少年时期玩过《龙与地下城》。

I played Dungeons and Dragons as a teenager.

你们和七、八个人聚在一起，只用几颗骰子和几张纸，就在脑海中构建出虚拟世界，讲述故事是智人最了不起的发明之一。

You get together with seven or eight people, and you imagine the virtual worlds in your mind with just a few dice and some scratch of paper, it is telling the story is one of the most amazing inventions, of homo sapiens.

第二是狗。

Number two is the dog.

我一生中最好的朋友很多都是狗。

Many of my best friends in my life have been dogs.

它们总是提供持续、无条件的多巴胺、催产素和血清素，这真是一个伟大的发明。

They're just constant, unconditional, slow release dopamine, oxytocin, serotonin, and it's a great invention.

第一是音乐。

And number one is music.

人类所创造的真正美妙的事物，比如艺术和音乐。

Truly, truly beautiful things that humans have accomplished, you know, with beautiful and, art and music.

作为科技圈的人，我们在这次通话中大多数人，必须越来越区分聪明和智慧。

As a technology crowd, largely on this call, we have to increasingly differentiate between clever and wise.

那么，哪些技术最适合碳脉冲下降阶段呢？

So what technologies are gonna be most suited for the downslope of the carbon pulse?

我称之为金发姑娘技术，既不像无人机能给七岁孩子的生日派对送纸杯蛋糕那样过热，也不像石器时代的工具那样过冷。

I've come to call this Goldilocks technology, which is not too hot like, drones being able to deliver cupcakes to your seven year old's birthday party, and not too cold, which is stone age tools.

我们不会倒退。

We are not going back.

这一点毫无疑问。

That is for sure.

我们将向前迈进，进入一个未知的领域，我们尚不清楚，但必须使用更少的材料、更低的复杂性、更少的全球化，更好地影响环境。

We are going ahead into something that they unknown that we don't know, but we're gonna have to use less materials, less complexity, less globalization, better affect the environment.

技术必须转向重要的事情，而不是琐碎的消遣，并且必须更多地使用本地和区域性的材料。

The technology is gonna have to go towards important things and not trivia frivolities, and it's gonna have to be made more with local and regional, ingredients.

因此，在峰值之后的世界中，技术为我们扮演的角色是一个核心问题。

So what technology does for us in a post peak world is a really central question.

你们这些从事科技行业的人，试着像我住在明尼苏达州时那样：下雪天堵车时，不要只盯着前面那辆车，而是往前看两三辆车，观察它们的刹车灯。

And those of you that are in tech try to in the same way I live in Minnesota, and when it's snowing out and you're in traffic, you look two or three steps ahead at the two or three cars ahead at the brake lights and not at the car just ahead of you.

我们大多数人只盯着正前方的那辆车。

Most of us are looking at the car just ahead of us.

如果你理解了我所提出的那些细微之处和情境，请往前多想两到三步，思考我们真正需要哪些技术。

And if you understand, the nuances and and scenarios in what I'm putting forward, think two or three steps ahead on what what technologies are we really gonna need.

从社会层面来说，这是我提出的一个术语。

Socially, this is a term I I came up with.

我不知道这个术语会有多持久或有多相关。

I don't I don't know how how sticky or relevant it is.

但每个月过去，至少在美国，乃至全世界，都有越来越多的人正在受苦，越来越多的情境正在恶化，包括自然界本身。

But every month that passes, at least in The United States and certainly in the world, there are more and more people who are suffering and more and more situations, that are suffering, including the natural world.

我的理念是：全然地关注当下的人或事，是人类能给予他人最伟大的礼物。

And my philosophy here is attention and awareness in the moment fully to someone or something is about the greatest gift that humans can offer to someone.

如果有人正在受苦，与他们在一起时给予他们全部的注意力，但不要过度投入，以至于被他们的痛苦淹没——这就是‘摆锤式共情’。

And if someone is suffering, to give them the full attention while that you're with them, but don't give it so full that you are, drowned with them, which is the barbell empathy.

我们必须保护自己的主权、目标和使命，以及我们正在从事的工作。

We have to protect our own, sovereignty and, you know, our goals and our purposes, and and the work that we're doing.

所以，让我讲一个简短的故事。

So a brief story.

今年早些时候，而不是上周，我在旧金山遇到一位优步司机，他来自非洲，已经七年没见到家人了，正在等待绿卡。

I was in San Francisco, not not last week, but earlier this year, and Uber driver had had lived in Africa, and he hadn't seen his family in seven years, and he's waiting for a green card.

他给我讲了一个长达四十五分钟的故事。

And he told me a story for forty five minutes.

那真是令人无比悲痛。

It was just so tragic.

我认真倾听了，并给出了一些想法。

And I listened, and I offered some thoughts.

我的一位教练当时和我在一起，我们下了车。

And my one of my coaches was with me, and we got out of the cab.

他对我说：‘内特，这是一次痛苦的时刻。'

And he's like, Nate, this was a moment of suffering.

让它从你身上流过。

Let it pass through you.

吸收它。

Absorb it.

让它从你身上流过，然后继续前行。

Let it pass through you and move on.

因为当时我想，如果让这件事影响我一整天的其余时间，我还有另一场演讲。

Because I thought at the moment, if I let this affect the rest of my day, I had another presentation.

我之后还有航班。

I had a flight later.

所以，像杠铃一样，全心投入地关注他人，但同时也要保护好你内在的核心。

So, barbell, fully give your awareness to people, but protect your own, inner core at the same time.

平和之心，我们是群居的猿类，存在许多内群体与外群体的偏见。

Equanimity, we are tribal apes, and we have a lot of in group, out group biases.

在社交场合中努力变得更加包容并保持平和之心，是必要的，也是可以训练的。

And to try and be more tolerant and have equanimity in social situations, is something that is needed and, can be trained.

就像在健身房锻炼可以训练你的二头肌一样，你也可以在社交场合中训练自己的宽容心和平静心态。

And just like working out in a gym can train your biceps, you can train your tolerance and equanimity in in social situations.

最后，餐车。

Lastly, the dining car.

从字面上看，我们所有人都在一列失控的列车上，而市场——这个金融市场的引擎，正不断往里添柴加火。

Not so metaphorically, we are all on a runaway train, and the market the financial market is shoveling fuel into, the engine.

我认为，除非发生重大动荡，否则我们无法在宏观层面改变整个系统。

I don't believe that we can shift, the system at large scales until there is a disruption.

我们能做的，是在餐车这个隐喻中与其他人类相遇，学习、成长、制定策略、规划未来，变得更加坚韧。

What we can do is meet other humans at the dining car metaphorically and learn, grow, strategize, plan, become more resilient.

在我看来，我在隐喻中的餐车上遇到的人可以分为三类。

In the way that I see it, there are three I I have three groups of humans that I meet in my metaphorical dining car.

第一类是知识分子。

One is the intellectual people.

你们中的一些人参加了这次通话，我和你们讨论货币市场、气候、生物多样性、本地韧性以及生物区域主义等话题，从中了解最新动态。

Some of you are on this call, that I talk to about the currency markets and, climate and biodiversity and local resilience and bioregionalism and all those things, and I learn what's going on.

另一类是我喜欢一起玩乐的人。

Another is people I just like to have fun with.

明天晚上，我在这里办个晚宴，我们会玩游戏、讲故事，就是那些你乐意一起做事的人。

Tomorrow night, I'm having a dinner party here, and we're gonna play games and, you know, tell stories and people that you just like to do things with.

第三类是你想在这颗蔚蓝绿色的地球上，用你的时间做些有意义、有目的事情的人。

And then the third is people that you wanna do something of meaning and purpose with your time on this blue green earth.

当你找到这些人时，可能只是一个很小的群体，三四个或五个人，你们关心圣克鲁兹的海豹，想为它们及其栖息地做点什么。

And you find those people, it might be a small group, three, four, five people that you care about the seals in Santa Cruz and want to do something to protect them, and their habitat.

或者无论你深深热衷于什么，你都会在餐车里与这些人相聚。

Or whatever it is that you're deeply passionate about, you meet with those people on the dining car.

本地的。

Local.

更深入地了解你所在的地方、当地的生态，不要只把它看作是两地之间的过渡，而要认识到它有自己的精神、活力和历史。

Become more intimately familiar with your local place, your local ecology, not just as a place between places, but it has its own spirit, its own vitality, its own history.

我有几个地方，每次去那里，我都会坐下来十分钟。

And I have a couple places where every time I go there, I sit down for ten minutes.

我已经这样做了大约一年，开始熟悉树皮、不同的树木、鸟类和松鼠。

And I've been doing that for about a year, and I'm starting to know the bark on the trees and the different trees and the birds and the squirrels.

这就像一个家外之家。

And it's it's it's a home away from home.

在更深层的意义上，如果这个超级有机体继续扩张，没有人会保护这些静坐点及其周边环境。

And at a deeper level, these sit spots and beyond, no one is gonna protect those from the superorganism if it continues to grow.

这取决于你，取决于你所在社区的每一个人，无论你身处地球的哪个角落，你和你餐车里的其他人必须站出来发声：这个超级有机体不能侵占这里——不能砍这棵树，不能占这片田，不能毁这片草地，不能伤害这些动物。

And that is on you, in your local community, wherever you are on this earth, you and other people in your dining car to take a stand and say the superorganism doesn't get to this point, not this tree, not this field, not this meadow, not these animals.

关于本地化，如果我们展望未来，在人工智能盛行或后增长的世界里，我们需要一些当前文化所不倡导的技能。

With respect to local, if we look ahead in the AI well, in the AI can kicking world or in the post growth world, we're going to need skills in addition to the things that our current culture advocates for.

在我所描述的一些情景中，问问自己：我目前在社区里已经擅长什么技能？我能像打磨自己的武士刀一样，不断精进它。

And in some of the scenarios that I outlined, ask yourself, what is a skill that I could contribute in my community that I'm pretty good at already and that I could hone and sharp like my own samurai sword.

我无法替你们任何人发言，但我非常擅长种土豆。

And I can't speak for any of you, but I'm really good at planting potatoes.

我擅长即兴写诗，就像即兴诗歌一样。

I'm good at writing, poetry on the fly like speed poetry.

我是个不错的主人，也是个讲故事的好手。

I'm a I'm a good host and a storyteller.

我会用链锯砍树。

I know how to chainsaw trees.

我会养鸭子，会做鸭哨，它们会跟着我，因为它们把我当成亲人了。

I know how to raise ducks, and make duck calls, and they follow me around because they imprinted on me.

我的意思是，这些只是些例子，但你要学习一些对未来有用的技能。

I mean, those are just some things, but learn skills that are relevant to the future.

最后，在这个类别里，河里的石头。

Lastly, in this category, rocks in the river.

字面意义上，不久的将来，我们居住的地方的水流会变得更快、更深，许多缺乏心理韧性、社会网络或经济支持的人，当这些事件发生时，会被冲下河去。

Not so metaphorically, at some point in the near future, the water is going to start to rush faster and deeper, where we live, and many humans without the psychological, maturity or social networks or financial, back drop are going to tumble down the river when these events happen.

因此，那些能够成为锚点的人，有责任在我们本地提供稳定性。

And so it behooves those of us that can act as anchors, to, provide stability where we live locally.

如果我们足够多的人都这样做，我们实际上就能改变水流的方向。

And then if enough of us do that, we can actually redirect the flow of the water.

生态方面，最近，坦率地说，这些是我每周五发布的视频。

Ecological, in a recent, frankly, frankly, these are the videos I do on Fridays.

目前人类经济体系中存在一种层级结构，人工智能在军事、货币债券市场、经济增长、能源、政治、公民福祉和环境等领域中，前者的优先级远高于后者。

There's a hierarchy in the human economic system right now where AI is kind of a king in the military, the currency bond markets, economic growth, energy, politics, citizenry, our well-being, and the environment are next to last in how we prioritize decisions in our economy.

在新一届政府下，这一点变得更加明显。

This has become even more obvious, in the new administration.

因此，在这种背景下，我们必须战略性地为生命着想，提前两到三步进行规划。

So with this backdrop, we have to, be strategic about looking two or three steps ahead in service of life.

实现这一点的方法有很多。

And there's a lot of ways to do that.

其次，与其惊呼‘天啊，我们过度消费了，这不可持续，我们已经超出了生态承载极限’，

Secondly is to instead of, oh my gosh, we're over consuming and this is unsustainable, and we're in ecological overshoot.

我不该吃肉。

I shouldn't eat meat.

我不该再坐飞机了。

I shouldn't ever fly again.

我应该骑我的电动自行车。

I should, ride my electric bicycle.

我应该购买太阳能电池板。

I should buy solar panels.

我不应该使用塑料制品，我的意思是，如果你事事追求完美，你将整天都忙于追求完美。

I should not use plastic single I mean, if you do everything perfectly, you will spend all your day trying to be perfect.

即便如此，你仍然只是八十亿分之一。

And even then, you will still be one eight billionth, part.

你只是我们物种所造成的更大代谢问题中更微小的八十亿分之一。

You will be a smaller one eight billionth part of a larger metabolic problem that our species has become.

相反，我主张利用你的技能和你对人类文化层面挑战的独特贡献来最大化你的影响力。

Instead, I advocate to maximize your impact with your skills, your special contributions to our cultural species level challenge.

我仍然会坐飞机。

I still fly.

我并不经常坐飞机。

I don't fly that much.

我并不为了个人享受而飞行。

I don't fly for personal enjoyment.

只有当我有机会与慈善家、政府等人士传递教育使命时，我才会飞行。

I fly when I have, a handful of opportunities to pass the baton to more humans educationally with philanthropists, with government, etcetera.

我可以使用比现在少得多的资源，在后院建一座10乘10英尺的小屋，但这对人类或生物圈的困境毫无帮助。

I could use a lot less resources than I currently use and build a 10 by 10 shack on the back 40 here that would not be helping the human or the biosphere predicament.

利用你现有的技能，在这个时代最大化你的影响力。

Maximize your impact during these times with the skills that you have.

最后，是种子。

And lastly, seeds.

我们如今做的许多事情不会立即结出果实，而是需要时间才能发芽。

Many of the things that we're doing now are not gonna have immediate, fruit, but are gonna take time to sprout.

我相信，任何种过树的人都知道，小树苗通常不会在你有生之年长成参天橡树，而我们如今做的许多事情就属于这一类。

And I'm sure any of you that have planted trees, you don't see, the small sapling become a giant oak tree in your life time usually, and some of the things that we're doing now are in that camp.

我喜欢说，我们现在所做的是改变未来的初始条件，使下一阶段出现更多更好的结果，而再下一阶段则会出现更多更优的结果。

I like to say that what we're doing now is changing the initial conditions of the future so that more better outcomes are available at the next period, and then there are even better more outcomes available at the period after that.

个人而言，要对他人友善，但你首先需要善待的人是你自己。

Personally, be kind to others, but the very first person you need to be kind to is yourself.

这个道理我花了很长时间才明白。

This is a lesson that has taken me a while to figure out.

你是你生命中最重要的那个人，只有善待自己，才能做到我在这里提到的其他所有事情。

You are the most important person in your life and you have to be kind to yourself in order to do all the other things that I've mentioned here.

生活很艰难，但试着留意你生活中和世界上那些积极向上的微光。

Things are tough, but try to notice the glimmers in your life and in the world that are in the positive direction.

实际上，有很多好事正在发生。

There are actually a lot of good things going on.

安德鲁和瑞安正在举办的这个小课程。

This little course that Andrew and Ryan are are are putting on.

今年我减了15磅，因为我更注重为身体提供营养。

I've lost 15 pounds this year because I'm I'm doing more nourishment for for my body.

我的意思是，我有点累，所以此刻想到的就只有这两件事。

I mean, I'm a little tired, so those are the only two things that came up in the moment.

我们的生活中有很多微光，让我们隐约感受到事情并没有看起来那么糟，而且正在好转。

There are a lot of glimmers in our life that give us a little taste of that things aren't as bad as they seem, and there's there's improvement happening.

我最近的座右铭是‘B+为生命服务’，这与我的同事、也是我三本书的合著者DJ怀特形成对比。

My tagline, recently is b plus in service of life, And that is in contrast to this gentleman, my colleague and coauthor of three of my books, DJ White.

DJ怀特一直是‘A+为生命服务’的典范。

DJ White has been a plus in service of life.

今天存活的一百万只海豚，正是因为他的努力才得以生存。

There are a million dolphins alive today that wouldn't have been alive because of his efforts.

他小时候并不知道自己长大后想做什么。

He didn't know what he wanted to do when he grew up.

他23岁的时候，住在印第安纳州。

He was 23 years old, and he lived in Indiana.

他唯一知道的是，自己热爱鲸鱼和海豚。

And all he knew is he loved, whales and dolphins.

他买了一张单程票前往夏威夷，自愿去水族馆清理海豚的排泄物。

He bought a one way ticket to Hawaii, and he volunteered to clean dolphin poop out of aquariums.

十五年后，他成为了我们这个时代最成功的海洋环保活动家之一。

And fifteen years later, he was one of the probably the single most successful ocean environmental activists of our times.

他制止了台湾的海豚驱猎行为。

He stopped dolphin drive kills in Taiwan.

他制止了八十年代对海底的拖网捕捞。

He stopped the, dredging of, of the ocean bottom in the eighties.

他阻止了海豚与斯塔克斯特金枪鱼混在一起等情况的发生，这一切都源于他朝着自己关心的事物迈出了一步，尽管当时感觉并不怎么样。

He stopped the, dolphins being, merged with Starkist tuna and and things like that, all because he took a single step in a direction of something he cared about and it felt, no.

在我这里，绝不允许。

Not on my watch.

这种事不会发生。

This is not gonna happen.

我要去了解这件事。

I'm gonna learn about this.

我要为此做点什么。

I'm gonna do something about it.

这张照片里是他和 dolphin 朋友在水中一起练习瑜伽的场景，他们坚持了多年，而她从一百种选择中总是挑选巴赫或贝多芬。

This is a picture with his dolphin friend that he did yoga with in the water, for years, and she chose the out of a 100 choices, she always chose Bach or Beethoven.

她经常跟他开恶作剧。

She played practical jokes on him.

她主导了瑜伽课程。

She led the yoga sessions.

存在意识。

There is consciousness.

地球上大多数的意识都存在于海洋之中。

Most of the consciousness on planet earth is in her oceans.

那里生活着许多具有意识的物种，而我们却视之为理所当然。

And there are many, many conscious species live there and we just take it for granted.

但这里的关键并不是你要像 DJ 那样。

The point here though isn't you have to be like DJ.

B+ 已经足够好了。

B plus is good enough.

我们这个时代的风险非常高。

The stakes of our times are very high.

总体而言，为了未来和超越个人利益与舒适做出更好的决策，我认为这是一个很好的建议。

And to just generally directionally, make better decisions on behalf of the future and beyond your own self interest and comfort is is something I think is a good recommendation.

所以，这是我所推荐的一系列松散关联的要点，我希望一小群人能以此为共鸣相互连接，然后某种新兴事物就会发生。

So this is kind of a a loose wheel or circle of the things that I've recommended, and my hope is that small groups of people align like this and meet each other and then something emergent happens.

他们彼此相遇，然后某种新兴事物就会发生，文化变革就是这样发生的。

And, they meet each other and then something emergent happens, and that's how cultural change happens.

我们这个时代的风险从未如此之高。

And the stakes of our times have never been higher.

权力放大金钱、能源、控制和等级制度。

Power scales up money, energy, control, hierarchy.

生命则深化了目的、生态、意义，而我们的未来取决于我们滋养哪种动态。

Life scales deep purpose, ecology, meaning, and our future depends on which of these dynamics we feed.

伟大的简化正迫在眉睫，我邀请你们所有人在这重要时刻扮演自己的角色。

The great simplification is on the horizon, and I invite you all to play a role in these important times.