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我们把这些东西发到Reddit上之后，绝大多数人的反应都是：天哪。
When we published this stuff on Reddit, overwhelmingly, the reaction was, holy smokes.
这太离谱了。
This is ridiculous.
这些价格简直疯了。
These prices are crazy.
很多高价收费的公司，评论区里都收到了强烈的反馈，说：你看，Sila收得太贵了。
And I think a lot of those companies that have been charging top dollar got visceral reactions in the comments saying, look, Sila charges way too much.
说实话，我们也认同这一点。
And I think, frankly speaking, we agree.
那我是不是在说Sila做得不好？
Now am I saying that Sila is not doing a good job?
不是。
No.
我们没这个意思。
We're not saying that.
我只是想说，确实有人想买兰博基尼或玛莎拉蒂，我不会阻止他们去买这些车。
All I'm saying is that, look, there are some people who are out there who wanna buy a Lamborghini or a Maserati, and I'm not gonna stop them from buying a Lamborghini or a Maserati.
但我觉得消费者有权知道，市场上谁的产品更像丰田或本田——价格合理，又可靠。
But I think the people deserve to know who in the market is a little bit more like a Toyota or a Honda, affordable and reliable.
对吧？
Right?
从承包商们的反应中，能看出他们对自己身份的看法，也能看出他们向客户推销时采用的策略。
And I think the reactions from the contracting base reveals a lot about how every single contractor sort of feels about themselves, but also their tactics and strategies for making sales to consumers.
大家好。
Hey, everyone.
刚才说话的是来自Laminar Collective和Manatee Energy的吴琪。
That was Kit Wu of Laminar Collective and Manatee Energy.
从这段对话你也能听出来，琪和他联合创始人汉南都是圈外人，但已经深入掌握了热泵和承包行业的门道，能戳中一些痛点。
As you could probably tell from that clip, Kit and his co founder, Hannan, are outsiders who have gotten deep enough into the world of heat pumps and contracting to be able to push a few buttons.
如果你今天也想被点醒一下，这期节目绝对值得听。
And if you want a few of your buttons pushed today, this is gonna be a great episode.
但你们的共鸣点可不是无缘无故被触动的。
But your buttons aren't being pushed for no reason.
他们会逼你去思考。
They're gonna make you think.
我在 homeowner 眼里是什么样子？
How am I coming across to homeowners?
我有没有把我的独特之处说清楚？
Am I doing a good job communicating what makes me unique?
我的定价和这些能对得上吗？
And does my pricing align with all of that?
如果你不想听一个从来没拧过扳手的人，非要去戳你几个伤口，那现在就可以关掉了。
Look, if you're not in the mood to listen to someone who sounds like they've never turned a wrench stick their finger in a few open wounds, definitely turn this one off.
但我得说，这两个人确实是真动手干过的。
But I'll say this for these guys, they have turned wrenches.
他们因为研究太投入，干脆直接开了家热泵设计安装公司，继续深挖，这点我很佩服。
They got so much interest from their research, they actually stood up a heat pump design and installation business to continue their learnings, and I admire them for that.
他们不是这个行业的人，但花了大力气去研究，有资格发表看法。
They're not from this industry, but they've done the hard work to earn an opinion on it.
好吧。
Alright.
这算是本集的健康警示了。
Consider that your surgeon general's warning for this episode.
如果你愿意听，希望你能有所收获。
If you listen, I hope you get something out of it.
在开始之前，先插个广告。
And before we jump in, one plug.
埃里克新开发了一门培训课程。
Eric has a new training he's developed.
名字叫《如何设计一个不会让你日后头疼的热泵系统》。
It's called how to design a heat pump system that will not come back to haunt you.
他已经讲过几场，反响都非常好。
He's given it a few times, and it's been a huge hit so far.
我们这边三菱的朋友们正在为埃里克举办一场网络研讨会，内容就是这个培训，而且任何人都可以参加。
Our friends over at Mitsubishi are hosting a webinar for Eric to give that training, but it's open to anyone.
订阅这个网络研讨会的链接在节目笔记里。
The link to subscribe to that webinar is in the show notes.
在这次培训中，埃里克会先讲第一点：回顾几个关键的Manual J假设，以及如何快速简便地在家中验证它们。
In this training, Eric will cover, number one, he'll review a few key Manual J assumptions and how to verify them in the home quickly and easily.
第二点：正确应用适用于变频系统的高级Manual S方法。
Two, how to apply advanced Manual S procedures the right way for variable speed systems.
第三点：什么时候该用辅助电加热，什么时候该用双燃料，什么时候完全不用辅助加热，以及这些选择和风管容量问题之间的关系。
Three, when and when not to use strip heat, dual fuel, or no supplemental at all, and how that relates to duct capacity issues.
第四点：不同地区容易被忽略的运行成本陷阱，以及如何避开它们。
Number four, the hidden operating cost traps in different regions and how to avoid them.
第五点：有针对性的建筑围护结构改造如何减少暖通空调的麻烦，以及该优先处理哪些部分。
Number five, how targeted envelope improvements can reduce HVAC headaches and what to prioritize first.
最后但同样重要的是，他会通过几个真实案例，展示如何正确设计高性能热泵系统，让它变得简单、可扩展，而且有利可图。
And last but not least, he'll walk through real world case studies and show how high performance heat pump design can be simple, scalable, and profitable when done right.
这场活动一定会很棒。
It's gonna be a good one.
时间是6月18日下午两点，东部时间。
It's June 18 at 2PM eastern.
注册链接在节目笔记里。
The link to register is in the show notes.
没错。
Right.
别忘了听听Kit Wu和Hannan Rhodes的对话。
Enjoy the conversation with Kit Wu and Hannan Rhodes.
你好，欢迎收听Heat Pump Podcast。
Hi, and welcome to the Heap Pump Podcast.
我是Ed Smith。
I'm Ed Smith.
我是Eric Fitz。
And I'm Eric Fitz.
我们是Amply Energy的联合创始人。
We are cofounders of Amply Energy.
今天请到了Laminar Collective和Manatee Energy的Kit Wu和Hannan Rhodes。
Today, have Kit Wu and Hannan Rhodes of both Laminar Collective and Manatee Energy.
Kit，Hannan，欢迎你们。
Kit and Hannan, welcome.
谢谢你们邀请我们。
Thanks for having us.
很高兴能来。
Good to be here.
好了，各位。
Alright, guys.
咱们先给听众们简单介绍一下你们在做什么。
Let's start with giving listeners just a little more context around the work you guys do.
能不能分别用一分钟时间，先说说Laminar Collective是做什么的，再讲讲Manatee Energy，然后我们再慢慢展开。
If you could give us, like, a sixty second explanation of Laminar Collective and then do the same thing for Manatee Energy, and then we we can kinda unpack things from there.
是的
Yeah.
当然
Absolutely.
我是Kit。
So I'm Kit.
我是Laminar Collective的创始人，Hannan是我的联合创始人。
I'm the founder of Laminar Collective, and Hannan's my cofounder.
两年前，我们从马萨诸塞州的剑桥市开始做这份研究通讯。
Two years ago, we started this research newsletter from Cambridge, Massachusetts.
我们发布了很多关于热泵的市场数据和信息，因为很多邻居都想装热泵，但当时这方面的资料太少了。
And we started publishing a lot of market data and information about heat pumps because a lot of my neighbors were interested in getting a heat pump, and there was not a lot of information about heat pumps.
从那以后，我们一直写、一直发布，现在博客和通讯的读者大概有1500人左右。
So since then, we've been writing, we've been publishing, and we've accumulated maybe about 1,500 people on our blog and newsletter.
后来我们意识到，如果真想做深入的研究，就得自己动手做安装了。
Now, at a certain point, we figured out that, well, if we really wanted to publish deep research, we actually have to start organizing and doing our own installations.
所以我们把Manatee Energy独立出来，既作为一个承包公司，也作为一个由Hannan持续开发的软件平台。
And that's why we spun out Manatee Energy as an independent contracting entity as well as a software platform that Hannan is building all the time.
Manatee这个软件平台会简化安装流程，而我们从这些热泵安装中获得的洞察，又会反馈回Laminar Collective的科研博客。
And Manatee as a software platform is going to streamline these installations, and the insights that we actually get from all of these heat pump installations goes right back into Laminar Collective as a research blog.
是的。
Yeah.
我们发现，要想真正理解做承包商意味着什么，就得亲自当一回承包商。
We figured out to fully understand what it takes to be a contractor, we had to become one.
我们把这些经验用在开发解决方案和自动化工具上，看看能不能提高效率，同时把这些心得分享给整个行业。
And we're taking those learnings and also trying to create solutions slash automations through software to see can we be more efficient, and can we share those learnings with industry.
结果发现，当你有1500个订阅者时，你在跟供应商谈合作时就有了相当的信誉。
It turns out that when you have 1,500 people on your newsletter, you also have a lot of credibility when you talk to supply houses.
所以我们能用这份信誉拿到更优惠的设备和耗材价格，再把这些节省下来的成本让给消费者。
So we've been able to leverage that to get better rates on equipment and consumables, and we pass those savings off to consumers.
你可以把我们看作是一家科研型的‘医院’。
So you can think of us as a little bit of a research hospital.
太棒了。
Awesome.
我们以前在播客里还真没听过哪个团队像你们这样，扮演了热泵领域的研究医院角色。
We have never had the heat pump equivalent of a research hospital on the podcast before.
我想深入了解这件事是怎么一步步发展起来的。
So I wanna dig into how this actually unfolded.
刚才的总结非常到位。
That was an excellent summary.
咱们回到两年前吧。
So take us back to two years ago.
那时候你听邻居们问了很多问题。
You're hearing from neighbors lots of questions.
你们当时到底开始做哪些研究了？
Like, what kind of research did you actually start doing?
我第一次接触到你们，就是你们做的价格调研，那会儿可引起了不小的轰动。
My first encounter with you all was your pricing research, which like made big waves.
咱们回溯一下，详细聊聊你们刚开始时的发展历程。
So take us back, let's go deeper on the development arc you guys went through when you started out.
两年前，我在Reddit上发布了一个相当有名的基准数据。
So two years ago, I published this rather infamous benchmark on Reddit.
我收集了大约15份报价，都是针对同一栋房子、完全相同的热泵系统。
I gathered maybe about 15 quotes from heat pump contractors for essentially the same system in the same exact house.
如果你在这一行待过，就知道市面上根本找不到可靠的定价数据。
And if you've been in this industry, you know that there's really no hard pricing data out there.
根本就没有像样的价格数据库。
There's no good pricing dataset.
这是第一个明确指出：同样是 apples to apples 的对比，唯一变量就是不同安装商报出的价格。
This was the first benchmark that basically said, it's the same apples to apples comparison, and the only difference here is what the contractor tells us in terms of pricing.
我们发现，就这一栋房子而言，报价从一万五千美元到三万美元不等。
And we found, for this particular single house, prices anywhere from $15,000 all the way to $30,000.
这个价格差距实在太离谱了。
And that is a crazy, crazy price spread.
那篇Reddit帖子后来火了，我们隔年就又做了更多价格基准调查。
That particular Reddit post ended up blowing up, and we did more pricing benchmarks the very next year.
我们先对一栋独立式殖民风格房屋做了23个报价对比，后来在一次热浪期间又做了一次。
We did one with 23 pricing benchmarks for a single family colonial house, and then we finally did one in the middle of a heat wave.
那是我第一次觉得，消费者终于能接触到自己本地的真实价格信息，从而做出明智的决策，知道该选哪家承包商。
This was the first time that I feel like consumers got access to real pricing information in their local areas that could give them actionable insights on which contractors they work with.
有些承包商特别喜欢这个做法。
Some contractors loved it.
但也有不少人对此发表了激烈的看法。
A lot of them had many hot takes to say about it.
太棒了。
Awesome.
所以你们主要关注的是价格问题。
And so it's primarily focused on pricing.
你们在热浪期间做的那次，报价差距有多大？
When you did one in Heat Wave, what was the spread for that pricing?
第一个报价在一万五到三万美元之间。
You had 15 to 30 k for the first one.
那在热浪期间的报价是多少？
What'd you have for the Heat Wave one?
热浪那次是个位于韦克菲尔德的单户殖民风格住宅。
I would say that for the Heat Wave one, this is a colonial single family home over in Wakefield.
那里的报价范围在两万到四万四千美元之间。
And the price spread over there was between $20,000 and $44,000.
所以我觉得背后真正的问题是，为什么价格这么高，又这么混乱？
So I think the big question behind all of this is why are the prices so high, and why are they so random?
我有经济学背景，一直想深入研究这个问题。
And I've got an economics background, so I've always wanted to dig into that.
现在我们总算有了一些答案。
I And think we have some answers these days.
我想知道，当时提供的服务和设备真的完全一样吗？
And I'm curious, can you talk more about was it really the same services that were being offered, similar equipment?
除了你们看到的报价价格，还有哪些其他因素是你们在对比不同报价时会考虑的？
Like, what other variables beyond just, hey, people throwing a price on a quote that you guys were looking at when you're comparing across these different estimates that you got?
在这些对比测试中，我们尽量把安装条件统一起来。
During these benchmarks, we tried to standardize the setup as much as possible.
因为三菱是市场上的领头品牌，我通常会跟承包商说：‘你们能不能给我报个三菱的方案？’
So because Mitsubishi is the market leader, I've typically told contractors, hey, can you give me a quote for Mitsubishi?
有时候，在实地查看时，我也会特意提醒他们，尽量提供相同的配置。
Other times, I've tried to make sure that I've nudged them during these particular walkthroughs to essentially give us the same setup.
对吧？
Right?
比如，我尽量让所有人用的室外机数量保持一致，而不是有的用一台，有的用两台。
So instead of having different numbers of condensers, I've tried to align everybody on the same number of condensers.
但总的来说，我觉得我们已经很好地排除了各种变量，因为这些报价都是在两周内集中拿到的，不是这个在春天、那个在秋天才报的。
But ultimately, I think we did a reasonably good job at removing all the varying factors because all of these quotes we obtain usually during a two week time span, so it's not like we're getting one quote in the spring and one quote in the fall.
整个过程的条件都控制得很严格。
These are narrowly controlled conditions.
太棒了。
Very cool.
我们会在节目笔记里提供你们做过的这些基准测试和相关论文的链接。
And we will provide links in the show notes to a bunch of these benchmarks you guys did and publications.
好的。
Alright.
基特，你之前提到过关于价差的问题，说你可能找到一些答案了。
And Kit, you teased us with, you had this question on why the spread, and you think you have some answers.
那答案是什么？
What are the answers?
你发现了什么？
What'd you find?
经过两年的研究，我们第一个问题就是：为什么价格这么高？
So after two years of doing this research, I mean, the first question that we had was, why are the prices so high?
还有，为什么价格差异这么大？
And also, why are the prices varying so much?
这让我们决定亲自管理安装项目，就是为了搞清楚到底为什么我们要去了解耗材从供应商那里采购的成本，以及供应商给客户报的价是多少。
And that led us down to a journey of actually managing installations ourselves to find out exactly why we wanted to actually get data about how much consumables cost to purchase from supply houses, how much the supply houses were quoting people.
所以我们现在掌握了所有这些信息。
So we have all that information.
经过两年在这方面的研究，我总结出三个大致的结论。
And I think after two years of doing research in this area, I've got three general answers for you.
第一个是，说实话，即使是同一栋房子，不同的承包商经营的方式也天差地别。
The first one is, look, frankly speaking, contractors, even for the same exact house, they run very different types of businesses.
对吧？
Right?
有些承包商运营成本很高，手下有五十号人。
Some contractors might have a ton of overhead, and they're running a 50 person shop.
另一些则是独立承包商，团队只有三到五个人，运营成本低得多。
Other contractors are independent contractors that only have three people, four people, maybe five, and they have super low overhead.
可能那家五十人的公司还自己有个仓库，这笔开销你得算进去。
Maybe the 50 person company owns a warehouse somewhere, and you've gotta pay for that particular warehouse.
也许那家五十人的公司会多留些现金，因为员工多，怕淡季撑不住。
Maybe the 50 person company decides to keep a larger reserve in case of slow seasons because they have more people on payroll.
而小公司可能就没必要存那么多现金了。
And then maybe the smaller contractors don't decide to keep as much in reserves.
所以就拿这个说法来说吧
So even for this naming
你所说的‘存现金’，是指库存还是现金储备？
And by in reserves, you mean, like, inventory reserves or cash reserves?
是现金储备。
Cash reserves.
这行当季节性特别强，夏天旺季和冬天淡季的订单量差得太多了。
This is a highly seasonal business, and the amount of demand when you compare the high season in summer versus the slow season during the winter is dramatically different.
每个承包商的经营方式都不一样，这还没算上他们提供的设备类型或专长领域呢。
So every single contractor can run their business in a different way, and that is without even considering what type of equipment they offer or or what their specialties are.
这是第一类情况。
So that's bucket number one.
第二个类别是，私募股权最近在波士顿都会区收购了不少承包商。
Bucket number two, I would say, is that private equity has been acquiring a lot of contractors in the Boston Metro Area.
不管你对私募股权怎么看，事实是，波士顿地区确实一直在发生行业整合。
Now, whatever your review is of private equity, the truth is that consolidation has been happening here in the Boston based area.
CELA Services 是最大的一家。
CELA Services is the big one.
我记得他们以前是摩根士丹利和高盛旗下的，过去几年一直在疯狂收购。
I believe they were owned previously by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and they have been on an acquisition spree in the past couple of years.
还有波士顿标准公司、NETR、中央供暖与制冷，以及大约十几家其他公司。
Boston Standard, NETR, Central Heating and Cooling, and about a dozen other companies.
对吧？
Right?
这些公司全都被收购了。
They've all been scooped up.
通常来说，我们看到的是，公司被私募股权收购后，价格往往会上涨。
And typically, what we've seen is that when companies get acquired by private equity, the prices do go up.
这是第二点。
That's bucket number two.
说到这个，我当时问了不少问题。我记得你的基准数据里，CELA在不同品牌名下提供了四到五个报价。
Actually, on that one, I asked a million questions on that one, but I remember from your benchmarks, you had like four or five quotes from CELA all under different brand names.
对吧？
Right?
如果你只是个普通房主，根本不会意识到这五个不同名字的报价其实都来自同一家公司。
And if you were just a standard homeowner, you would not have known those five quotes that have different names on them, but are actually all from the same corporate entity.
是吗？
Yeah?
对。
Yeah.
没错。
That's exactly right.
我们看到的情况是，像Seal这样的公司会把当地的那些小店都收购下来，从而独占整个区域的市场。
And what we've seen that has been happening is one company like Seal will buy out all these locally owned shops and now own a complete territory.
所以如果你是韦克菲尔德或者牛顿的业主，想拿三个报价——这已经是平均水平了，对吧？我们就算极端点，拿十五个报价，但普通业主一般就只要三个，结果你打来打去还是同一家公司。
So if I'm a homeowner in Wakefield or Newton and I wanna get three quotes, which is the average, right, we go to the extreme and get 15 quotes, but the normal usual homeowner wants three, you're calling the same company.
这样一来，根本没什么好处了。
So there really is no benefit anymore.
这种信息优势正在慢慢消失。
That sort of information edge is disappearing.
如果业主想拿超过三个报价，那负担可就太重了。
And if a homeowner wants to get more than three quotes, that's a huge burden on them.
对吧？
Right?
他们得请假、还得专门在家等着，等售后专员正好有空上门评估。
They have to take time off of work, be home at the same exact time that the comfort specialist can come in and assess their home.
这可不轻松。
That's a lot.
所以我们看到，这些成本最终都转嫁到了业主身上。
So we're seeing that these prices are getting passed on to the homeowner.
所以我们正在努力让这个过程更加透明。
So we're trying to help that by making more transparent.
非常有帮助。
Very helpful.
我觉得第三类情况是市场本身的不确定性。
I would say bucket number three is just this sense of randomness in the market.
说实话，我们以前接触过一些本来愿意报合理价格的承包商。
Because, honestly, we've talked to contractors before who otherwise would offer a good price.
但在这个特定的季节，他们接了个大单子，整个季度都排满了。
But for this particular season, maybe they got a big commercial deal, and now they're booked out for the rest of the season.
所以你只能出更高的价格，他们才愿意接你的活。
And because of that, you're gonna have to offer them a much higher price to actually take the deal.
还有些情况是，承包商就在你附近，本来打算两周后有个活，结果客户临时取消了，离现在只剩两周。
In other cases, maybe a contractor is in your local neighborhood, and they think to themselves, well, I had a job maybe lined up two weeks from now, but then that person backed out, and it's only two weeks until then.
这时候，我其实特别想把这段空档期填上，让团队别闲着。
And I actually would love to fill this particular week long gap for my crew.
有时候，如果你能填补那个空档，他们反而愿意给出更优惠的价格。
And sometimes they're willing to offer a better price specifically if you can fill in that particular gap.
所以确实，这个行业里存在某种不可预测性。
So there are some random there's a sense of randomness that actually does happen inside this industry.
有时候，你根本没法预知会不会碰到好价钱。
Sometimes you never know if you're gonna get a good deal.
有时候，你也不知道某个承包商会不会整个季节都排满了。
And sometimes if you don't know, if a contractor just gets completely booked out for an entire season.
是的。
Yeah.
我们后来了解到一种说法，叫‘我太忙了’的价格，或者‘我不想接’的价格，有时候承包商心里会这么盘算。
We learned the terminology a I'm busy price or I don't wanna do this price, which sometimes people will give prices internally.
他们会想，我其实不太想接这个活，但如果有人愿意出够高的价，那也值得做——这对小公司来说完全合理。
They're like, I really don't wanna do this, but if someone pays as much, then it's worth it, which is totally fair for someone running a business, especially at a smaller shop.
为了明确一下，比如你提到的‘我不想接’这种价格，你看到的更多是这种情况吗？
And just to clarify that, like, going to that example of I don't wanna do this kind of price, is that more of what you were seeing?
是跟排期上的困难有关，还是说纯粹觉得这活儿太吓人了？
It's around this, like, scheduling challenge, or is it more like, woah.
这项目真的特别复杂。
This is a really complicated project.
得投入更多人力才行。
It's gonna take a bunch more labor.
我有两支施工队，这个活儿必须派最老练的那支，所以得留出更多利润空间。
I need to get my I've got two different crews, and I need my most experienced crew to be on this one, and therefore, I need to kind of have some more margin in there.
你能再详细说说吗？
Can you get into that a bit more?
可能是各种因素都有，说实话，这正是老板们最拿手的地方。
It could be a little bit of of everything, honestly, and that is the magic and the artistry that these business owners do.
我们听过不少类似的情况，比如这房子结构特别复杂。
We've heard of different reasons such as this is a very complex home.
对吧？
Right?
我们位于波士顿都会区。
We're in the Boston Metro Area.
这些房子的价格在18万3千到18万9千之间。
This can be homes from $18.30 to $18.90.
也有可能是这样。
It could be, hey.
我知道这位房主对要求肯定会特别细致。
I know this homeowner probably is gonna be very, very specific on what they want.
等到工程快结束时，他们肯定会让我改三处地方，这部分我得提前留出余地。
They're gonna ask me to change three things by the end of the job, and that's margin that bake in.
还有排期的问题，通常如果有人临时退出，我得确保手下的施工队有活干，不能闲着。
And the scheduling issue where usually if someone drops out, hey, you have crews that you have on payroll, you wanna make sure that they're getting work done.
这样的话，价格就得往下调。
So that would lower the price.
明白了。
Alright.
我想再多了解一下Manatee是怎么回事的，但我想先深入聊聊这些反应，因为我记得你们当时做这件事的时候，我们跟承包商圈子里的关系特别紧密。
I wanna ask more about how Manatee came out of this, but I wanna go a little deeper into some of these reactions first, because I remember when you guys did this, and we're pretty darn tied into the contractor community.
有些人对他们在对比中的表现特别满意，但也有人非常生气。
There were some people who were like pretty psyched about how they came out looking in this comparison, And there were some people who were pissed.
我听说有人直接说：我们要告他们。
I heard a cold be like, we are going to sue these guys.
这根本不合法。
This is not legal.
所以跟我详细说说，你们那1500个Reddit读者的反应吧——我猜他们 mostly 都是房主。
So tell me more about the reactions to this from your 1,500 person readership on Reddit, who I would assume are largely homeowners.
然后再讲讲你们从实际参与者那里收到的反馈，我对这个生态挺感兴趣的。
Then tell me about the reactions you got from actually, I'm kind of interested in the ecosystem.
房主的反应、承包商的反应、还有Mass Save的反应。
Reactions from homeowners, reactions from contractors, reactions from Mass Save.
不知道的人可能不清楚，这是马萨诸塞州的热泵补贴项目。
Folks who don't know, that's our Massachusetts' heat pump rebate program.
说说看，你们发的这几篇挺有争议的内容，都引发了哪些不同的反应？
Tell me about the constellation of reactions to this quite provocative several pieces of work you guys put out there.
好的。
Okay.
是这么回事。
Here's the deal.
我得先澄清一下这里的情况。
I feel like I need to set the record straight over here.
第一，说明一下，我们邮件通讯和博客的1500个读者，都是挺不错的，主要是波士顿大都会区的房主和研究人员。
Number one, just for the record, 1,500 people who are on our newsletter and blog, love them, Boston Metro Area homeowners as well as researchers.
但Reddit上的传播范围其实大得多，这些帖子加起来估计有几十万次浏览，每次我们贴出价格，都会引来不少人激烈评论。
But the reach on Reddit, actually, these posts are getting, I think, collectively, probably has, like, hundreds of thousands of views with a fair amount of people giving really heated takes when we publish these prices on Reddit.
第一点。
Number one.
对吧？
Right?
我们一在Reddit上发布这些东西，绝大多数反应都是：天哪。
When we publish this stuff on Reddit, overwhelmingly, the reaction was, holy smokes.
这也太离谱了吧。
This is ridiculous.
这价格简直疯了。
These prices are crazy.
很多高价收费的公司，在评论区里被网友激烈批评，说：你看Sila收费也太高了。
And I think a lot of those companies that have been charging top dollar got visceral reactions in the comments saying, look, Sila charges way too much.
说实话，我们也是这么认为的。
And I think, frankly speaking, we agree.
那我是不是在说Sila做得不好？
Now am I saying that Sila is not doing a good job?
不是。
No.
我们没这个意思。
We're not saying that.
我只想说，确实有人想买兰博基尼或玛莎拉蒂，我不会阻止他们去买这些车。
All I'm saying is that, look, there are some people who are out there who wanna buy a Lamborghini or a Maserati, and I'm not gonna stop them from buying a Lamborghini or a Maserati.
但我觉得消费者有权知道，市场上谁更像丰田或本田——价格合理、可靠耐用。
But I think the people deserve to know who in the market is a little bit more like a Toyota or a Honda, affordable and reliable.
对吧？
Right?
从承包商的反馈中，能看出他们如何看待自己，也反映出他们向客户推销时的策略和手段。
And I think the reactions from the contracting base reveals a lot about how every single contractor sort of feels about themselves, but also their tactics and strategies for making sales to consumers.
有些承包商觉得自己就是市场上的兰博基尼，他们的销售团队也一心想着，要把每个人都变成兰博基尼的买家。
I think some contractors out there very much view them view themselves as the Lamborghini in the market, and their sales teams also think of themselves, my goal is to get everybody to buy a Lamborghini.
坦白讲，这并不是我们的目标。
And frankly speaking, that is not our goal.
在Laminar Collective，我们不认同这种目标。
We do not share that goal here at Laminar Collective.
我尊重他们提供这样的产品。
I respect that they are offering that product in the market.
但现实一点说，我们得让更多人选择本田和丰田，只有这样，这项技术才能真正普及开来。
But realistically, I think we need to get people to buy more ton Hondas and Toyotas because that's how we're gonna get mass market adoption of this technology.
有些承包商特别喜欢。
Some contractors loved it.
那些属于本田、丰田这类定位的承包商，对这个反应特别积极，因为他们确实带来了新客户、成交了订单、生意也多了。
For the contractors we know who are sort of in that Toyota and Honda category, they were enthusiastic about it because they're getting leads, they're getting sales, they're getting business.
我想特别提一下一位做得非常出色的承包商——Skywalker HVAC。
I think I'm gonna give a shout out to one particularly good contractor here, and that's Skywalker HVAC.
他们是一家精品型承包商，多年来一直干得很扎实，团队规模也不大。
They're a good example of a boutique contractor who has been doing great work for years, and they run a small shop.
但他们一直能靠这种曝光度接到业务。
And they get business from this particular visibility all the time.
另一方面，也有承包商在展会上主动找我们说：‘我看到你们这个做法，其实挺失望的，因为我们不是私募股权控股的，而且我们给员工的待遇非常好。’
On the other end, we've had contractors walk up to us in conferences and say, hey, when I saw this, I was really disappointed about you guys because we're not owned by private equity and we pay our people really well.
不过话说回来，我们确实从你们这儿接到了不少线索。
But that being said, we do get leads from you guys.
所以也没那么糟。
So maybe not that bad.
是的。
Yeah.
换个说法，他们真说过：看到这个的时候，我们特别反感你们。
To rephrase it, they would they literally said, when we saw this, we hated you guys.
但正是因为这个，我们接的活儿多了。
But we've done more jobs because of this.
因为毕竟，还是有人想要兰博基尼的。
Because, hey, there is a market for the people who want those Lamborghinis.
我们告诉他们：看，你就在那儿。
And we show them, hey, this is where you are.
对吧？
Right?
这根本不是一场比谁更便宜的竞赛。
This is not a fight to the bottom up for cost.
不同的人有不同的预算，我们想把这一点清楚地展示出来。
There's different price points for different people, and we wanna show that off.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得，无论是消费者还是承包商，反应都差不多。
So I would say that's sort of the reaction between people as well as contractors.
绝大多数消费者都喜欢明明白白看到价格。
Overwhelmingly, consumers like having price visibility.
不好意思。
I'm sorry.
你上安吉网站，或者别的那些平台，根本找不到什么价格信息。
You go to Angie, you go to any of these other websites, like you barely get any pricing information.
对吧？
Right?
大家在买东西之前，都想先知道别人报价多少。
People want to know how much people are charging before they buy what they're buying.
我们并不是说会把所有你需要的信息都列在一张表格里，但我们可以肯定地说，当你开始考虑预算范围时，这个资源非常有用。
And I think we we're not saying that we're gonna give you everything you need to know on a spreadsheet, but we are saying this is a really good resource to use when you start considering what's in your budget or not.
消费者特别喜欢这一点。
And consumers love that.
是的。
Yeah.
我们想帮助的是那些说‘我想住得更舒服一点’的房主。
The people we wanna help is the homeowner who says, hey, I wanna be more comfortable.
他们关心环保，也希望找到比油气更经济的替代方案。
Care about the environment, and I want make sure it's a cost effective alternative to oil and gas.
我们想让他们明白，如果从同一家公司拿到三个报价，那并不代表真实情况。
And we want make sure that they know if they get those three quotes from the same company, that's not the reality.
不是这样的。
Like, no.
其实选择多得多。
There's way more options.
可供选择的用户或公司多得多，你应该知道这些选择是存在的。
There's way more people or way more companies to choose from, and you should know that choice is out there.
你并不只能接受这样的说法：
You're not being stuck with, hey.
热泵就得花五万美元。
Heat pumps have to be $50,000.
实际情况并非如此。
That's not the case.
明白了。
Got it.
这正是我想弄清楚的。
So that's what I'm trying to figure out.
所以总的来说，我理解你的目标是：
So ultimately, at a high level, your goal is to provide it sounds like, because I'm gathering.
你的目标是让价格更透明，打破人们认为热泵和节能改造都特别贵的误解。
Your goal is to provide this more transparency around pricing to help fight this perception that heat pumps are expensive, that doing these improvements are expensive.
你们的目标，从宏观层面来说，就是想达成这样的效果，或者背后的原因是这个吗？
Is that what you're like, this very high level kind of target you guys are trying to hit on or the why behind this work?
是的。
Yeah.
说得太对了。
That's exactly right.
实际情况是，想象一下买辆车却看不到官方标价，你看到的全是玛莎拉蒂的广告。
Fact of the matter is, imagine buying a car and not being able to see MSRP, and everything you see is a Maserati ad.
对吧。
Mhmm.
没错吧？
Right?
或者像揽胜那样的广告。
Like or maybe like a Range Rover ad.
你懂我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
所有的广告牌都在说：去买一辆揽胜吧。
And all the billboards say, go get a Range Rover.
或者每一块广告牌都在告诉你：你得开上兰博基尼或法拉利才行。
Or every single billboard says, you want to be in a Lamborghini or Ferrari.
结果人们就会觉得：我根本买不起车。
And next thing, people are gonna be like, I can't afford a car.
完全没错。
Totally.
现在有些人开着揽胜，有些人却只能走路。
Now you have people with Range Rovers or walking.
就是这样。
That's it.
没错。
Right.
我不知道你对揽胜有什么看法。
And I don't know what your opinion about a Range Rover is.
你长大的那个地方，佛罗里达，有很多那种车吗？
Do they have a lot of those in in Florida where you grow?
是的。
Yep.
那儿特别多
They have a lot of
我小时候住的地方也到处都是。
those where I grew up.
天哪。
Oh my gosh.
我们在加州经常能看到。
You know, we see them in California.
但那儿还没怎么普及。
They're just really not out there yet.
因为他们更关心环保。
Because they care about the environment.
我觉得用车来打比方特别有用，因为这种比喻很容易让我们理解并抓住重点。
So I like the car analogy is is helpful because it's a very easy thing for us to, like, anchor our brains around.
但我马上想到的是，车是一种产品，而你给住户做的暖通空调改造，比如安装热泵，其实是一整套复杂的解决方案。
But my immediate pushback of, like, thinking about, like, the car is it it is a product, and what you're delivering to a homeowner with a HVAC retrofit like a heat pump, it is a whole complex solution.
这是一整套服务。
It's a whole service.
这不是简单的买东西，不同承包商对住户家里的情况有不同的关注点，这让整个过程比其他行业更复杂、更耗时。
It's not a product purchase, and there are different things that different contractors are attuned to about what's going on in the home that makes it more complicated, more labor intensive than other contractors may be aware of or care about.
所以我特别想听听，为什么这种服务没法像卖产品那样做直接的横向对比。
And so I just I would love to hear more about, like, that aspect of, there shouldn't necessarily be a way to get like an apples to apples comparison that you can get with like a product based sale.
因为做热泵安装的时候，他们卖的根本不是一件产品。
That's people are not delivering a product when they're doing a doing a heat pump install.
我来补充一下，我也在想这个比喻，但我觉得这根本不是在比较丰田和玛莎拉蒂。
Let me build on that because I was thinking about this analogy too, and I'm like, it's not like selling a Toyota versus a Maserati.
对吧？
Right?
因为你们用的都是三菱的系统。
Because you're all doing all Mitsubishi systems.
这就像是每个承包商都在给业主装一台玛莎拉蒂的引擎，然后再围绕它搭车身和框架。
It's like every contractor was delivering to the homeowner a Maserati engine, and then they were building the shell and frame around the car.
对吧？
Right?
有人可能装了三菱的无线温控器，有人却没装。
And like someone might have put in the Mitsubishi wireless thermostats, and someone else might have left that out.
这里面有太多细节上的差别了。
It's like there's all these like nuances to it.
所以这个汽车的比喻其实不太贴切了，我想听听你怎么看。
So like the car analogy breaks down a little bit, so I'm curious in your reaction to that.
我觉得在马萨诸塞州，这种说法对某些安装情况确实成立。
I think that's totally true for a certain class of installations here in Massachusetts.
现在人人都知道马萨诸塞州的房子都特别老，而我来自加利福尼亚。
Now everybody knows that Massachusetts is super, super old, and that the houses here I'm from California.
这些建筑有些比我的家乡还要古老。
Some of these houses are older than my state.
这可能吗？
Like, is that even possible?
其实完全有可能。
It's very possible, actually.
从历史角度看，加州算是很新的地方了。
California is pretty new in the whole scheme of things.
不过我想说，加州的建筑基本都是二战以后才兴起的。
But I was gonna say, it pretty much was invented after World War two.
算起来也就几十年的事。
It's, like, pretty recent.
但话说回来，那些维多利亚风格的老房子，线路布设特别麻烦，根本没法装风管。
But I will say, for the homes out there that are, like, Victorian houses that are difficult for line runs, and you can't really put ductwork inside there.
你能找到五个不同的承包商，得到五套完全不同的设计方案。
I can see a situation where you talk to five different contractors and you get five different proposals design wise.
也许有人会说，用空气到水的系统。
Maybe somebody says air to water.
然后另一个人可能会说，其实还是可以安风管的。
And then maybe somebody else says, oh, actually you can do ductwork.
接着又有人会说，绝对不行。
And then somebody else says, no way.
风管根本不可能装进去。
You absolutely cannot do ductwork.
请直接用无管系统。
Please do ductless.
所以确实会有这样的建筑。
So you can totally get buildings like that.
但我们选来做基准的这些房子，是马萨诸塞州最典型的住宅了。
But the buildings that we chose for the benchmarks, these are some of the most standard homes that you can find in Massachusetts.
你找五个承包商，他们大概都会给你差不多的方案。
You talk to five contractors, they will probably give you five similar systems.
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我说的是高度相似的情况。
And I'm talking about highly similar.
对吧？
Right?
比如一栋三层公寓装五个独立的无管空调系统。
Like five head mini split ductless for a Triple Decker.
对吧？
Right?
在三层公寓里，其实也没别的太多选择可装了。
There's really not much else you can install inside a Triple Decker.
你说得对。
You're right.
你没法直接拿产品跟产品一一对比，因为背后要考虑的东西太多了。
You cannot compare direct product to product to product because there's a lot of thinking that goes into it.
但我更愿意把它看作是买车时附带的配置。
But I think of it as more of like what comes with that car.
对吧？
Right?
你可以说，我要买一辆劳斯莱斯。
You could say, hey, I'm gonna buy a Rolls Royce.
我知道我一定能享受到最顶级的服务。
I know I'm gonna get the best service imaginable.
他们会亲自把我迎进展厅。
People are gonna bring me into the showroom.
他们会帮我挑选油漆颜色。
They pick the paints.
他们会让我觉得这辆车特别为我量身打造。
They're gonna make me feel all special about this.
我知道它附带了这么多贴心的豪华配置。
And I know it comes all these little luxuries that come with the car.
而如果你买本田或者丰田，你根本不会在意价格。
Or when you get a Honda or Toyota, you're not game because of the price.
对吧？
Right?
我们都知道，本田和丰田的车特别耐用。
I think we all here know that Honda and Toyotas have reliability behind it.
大家之所以这么认为，就是因为它们本来就以可靠著称。
We know it because that is just what they're known for.
对吧？
Right?
98年的本田，到现在还在开。
People who have Hondas from the '98 are still driving it today.
你不是光在比发动机、马力这些参数。
You're not just comparing, like, engine to engine to horsepower to horsepower.
你还在比它能用多久。
You're comparing also that lifespan that comes with it.
结果发现，它真的能用到我们想要的年限。
And we found, oh, it actually does last as long as we need to.
它确实能完成任务，但可能没法让我像开劳斯莱斯那样觉得特别。
It does the job, but maybe it does doesn't make me feel as special as Rolls Royce does.
所以我想在这基础上再补充一点。
So that's where I would add to that analogy.
我们真正想推动的是市场的透明度。
I'd also say what we're trying to push for is transparency in the market.
我们希望那些对自己的设计充满自豪的承包商和安装人员，能把这份用心明明白白地展现出来。
So we want contractors and installers who are prideful about taking consideration into their design and put it forward, put it front and center.
我们接触的很多人会说，我们确实花了很多心思在设计上，给员工开好工资，天天培训他们。
Many people that we talk to that they know, hey, we're putting a lot of work into our design, we're paying our guys well, we train them all day.
可问题是，这些在哪呢？
We're like, where is that?
你的报价单上没写，你的网站上也没提。
That was not on your quote, that's not on your website.
我们实地考察、跟你聊的时候，你根本没提这些。
When we were doing our walkthroughs and talking to you, you didn't talk about that.
你根本就是想赶紧签了我，好赶紧进屋干活。
It's very much like, I wanna sign you as fast as I can and get in the house.
如果你是个对自己的工作充满自豪感的承包商，我对你只有敬意。
So if you are a contractor who puts pride into their work, I have nothing more but respect for you.
你应该把这一点放在最显眼的位置。
I think you should make that front and center.
这个建议提得很好，汉南。
It's a good call to action, Hannan.
在我们换话题之前，关于价格这个事，我脑子里一直有个顾虑：这么强调价格，会让业主以为价格才是他们最该关心的事。
Before we switch gears, the thing that's, like, in the back of my brain about this pricing, the focus on pricing, my worry is that this makes homeowners focus on pricing as the thing that they should be most worried about.
这还让我担心，承包商们也会真的只盯着价格来搞。
It also makes me concerned that that's what, like, contractors are really gonna focus on.
我们在这行干了这么多年，早就明白一件事：质量、合理的设计，还有这些其他因素，往往比价格重要得多。
And, like, one thing that we have learned from the years kind of being in this space is that quality and doing proper design, all these other factors often are much much more important than price.
抓得住重点。
Grasp machine.
是的。
Yeah.
你得有信心，跟你合作的这家公司，你花的每一分钱都能换来优质的服务，让家里更舒适、更节能，而且这家公司能长久经营，至少撑到项目寿命结束，甚至十年、十五年后还能为你提供售后支持。
Feeling confident that the person that you are gonna work with, you're gonna spend your hard earned money with, is gonna do a great job and deliver comfort, deliver efficiency to your home, and that it's gonna last that company is gonna exist for several hopefully, the full life of the the projects or maybe a decade a decade and a half in the future to be available to service it or help you down the road.
所以，你们在研究中，除了我们刚才聊的这个具体例子，还发现哪些不涉及价格、但能让我更放心的因素？这些因素能让我知道，你们在意的不只是价格。
And so what do you guys in any of your research, beyond this, like, very specific example we've been talking about, like, what other elements came out that weren't related to pricing that you guys might share that helps me feel less worried that all you guys would care about is price?
你知道秘诀是什么吗？
You know what the secret is?
我来告诉你秘诀。
Here's the secret.
其实，人们愿意为更高的价格买单。
People are actually willing to pay higher prices.
他们说得对。
They're right.
那些说‘你应该付更高的价格’的承包商，其实说对了——消费者真的愿意为更好的服务多花钱。
All these contractors that are just like, you should pay higher prices, like, people are actually willing to pay higher prices.
说实话，很多公司根本不会表达这一点。
The thing is, our conclusion is that, frankly speaking, a lot of companies just suck at conveying it.
对吧？
Right?
因为我们自己开始为研究采购材料后，算了一笔账。
Because once we started procuring our own materials for research purposes, we added up the numbers.
而且，
And,
比如一栋独立式殖民风格的房子，如果要在二楼做风管、底层装迷你分体机，把耗材、材料和其他所有相关费用加起来，你会发现，光是实物成本就占了将近一半。
for example, for a single family colonial house, if you wanna do ductwork up on the 2nd Floor and mini splits on the bottom, once like, we added the up the numbers for consumables and materials and everything else associated with it, we found that, frankly speaking, almost half of the cost is just physical material.
你打个响指。
You wave a magic wand.
要是我现在这间本该只容一人、却挤了两人的电话亭里真有个神灯精灵，我就能对他说：你把这一堆材料立刻给我装好。
If I had a genie in a bottle inside this phone booth right now, this cramped phone booth that was supposed to hold one person but actually holds two, I could and I asked that genie, I want you to take this pile of material and instantaneously install all of it right now.
就算真有这么个神灯精灵，我依然得花一万五千美元买这些材料。
I would still have to pay about $15,000 for the physical materials even if I had a magical genie.
一旦消费者明白过来，哦，我花的这笔钱里，有一半其实是材料成本。
The moment that consumers can actually understand that, oh, I'm paying x, half the price is physical materials.
他们就会开始想，嗯，采购和物流把这些材料运到家里，占15%左右的价格也说得通。
Then they start thinking to themselves, okay, well, it makes sense that maybe 15% of the price is the procurement and the logistics it takes to actually get that materials to the house.
剩下的很大一部分是人工费用。
And then a good portion goes to labor.
顺便说一句，电工的工钱可不低，这个我们也算进去了。
And by the way, electricians are expensive, so we list that too.
当你把这些费用一项项加起来，再考虑到有些公司需要预留资金——毕竟这才是能稳健运营的正常做法，整体价格结构就合理了。
And once you add up all the numbers like this and then factor in the fact that some companies need reserves, because that's how you operate a reasonably good business, Like, the numbers make sense.
对吧？
Right?
房主心里就会清楚，我这三万美元花得值，知道钱都花在哪了，而不是有一半直接进了老板买游艇的钱包。
The homeowner will think to themselves, okay, I'm spending $30,000 on this thing, but I know where the money goes, and it's not like half the money just goes into the owner's new boat.
是的。
Yeah.
我还可以补充一点，我们的顾虑是，这种做法会不会被彻底忽视？
I can also add another answer there of our concern is, will it be erased to the bottom?
如果真这样，那就有成百上千户人家装了质量很差的系统，大家肯定会非常不满。
And if that happens, now you have hundreds of homes that have really crappy systems installed into them, and people are now really upset.
但我们的研究和与住户的交流发现，实际情况并非如此。
What we found in our research and when we talked to homeowners is actually that's not the case.
其实人们对价格并没有那么敏感。
People aren't really, really price sensitive.
他们更想知道自家房子到底发生了什么，这笔费用究竟花在了哪里。
They just want to understand what's happening to their home and, like, what's the cost associated with this install.
我们经常听到有人这么说：‘你们解释得清楚，我就不在乎你们收多少了。’
Like, we've had many times people tell us, hey, because you explained this to me, I don't care what you charge.
这种话我们听过好多次了。
Like, we've had that many, many times.
他们说：‘你们要多少钱我都愿意付。’
They're like, I'm willing to pay whatever you want.
我现在很有信心，这个系统一定会是个好系统。
I just feel confident now that this system is gonna be a good system.
这说明大多数人最关心的是舒适性和可靠性，尤其是那些家里有新生儿的父母。
So this shows that most people are concerned about comfort and concerned about reliability, especially what we found with parents of new children.
对吧？
Right?
你肯定希望孩子在冬天里暖暖和和的，如果你一上来就说，嘿。
You wanna make sure your child is gonna be warm during the winter, and if you come in and say, hey.
现在有个超值优惠。
You have a great deal.
还有丰厚的补贴。
You have great rebates.
赶紧在这儿签字吧。
Sign right here.
这些话根本传达不出真正的意思。
That really doesn't convey that at all.
我们后来跟那些承包商交流时发现，人们根本不会选最便宜的那一个。
What we've also found with the contractors that we do talk to after we post our pricing benchmark is people don't go to the cheapest person at all.
他们通常会选中间价位的。
They usually find the middle.
我们还会问他们，你觉得这个承包商怎么样？
And we have comments around there of, like, what do think about the contractor?
他们上门勘查时表现如何？
How was their walkthrough?
当我们问一些技术问题时，他们是怎么回答的？
When we ask technical questions, how did they answer?
当然，派来的是专门来签单的家居舒适顾问，和真正懂行的技工或安装师傅，这两者差别很大，后者虽然也做销售，但专业能力是实打实的。
And, of course, there was a difference between they send a a home comfort specialist who is there to close the deal versus a great tradesman slash installer who knows what he's doing, but the sales on the side.
这中间有明显的区别。
There's a difference.
这就是我的看法。
That's what I would say.
我现在感觉好多了。
I feel much better.
我很喜欢这些额外的见解。
I love those extra insights.
关键在于，价格本身并不是问题。
That view that it's the price itself is not the problem.
真正的问题在于信息缺失——房主根本不清楚价格背后的原因，也不明白他们所得到的报价到底值不值，这种信任和理解上的缺口非常大。
It's this vacuum of information that the homeowners are understanding why, what's behind that price, and that this importance of basically trusting and understanding what they're getting with that estimate, that's a huge gap.
你们能深入研究这个问题，真是太好了。
And that's so that's fantastic you guys are digging into that.
我觉得咱们这儿也得给大伙儿留点余地。
Look, I think I should give everybody a little slack here.
对吧？
Right?
作为研究机构，我们正好有独特的优势，能把所有数据汇总起来，做个全面的分析。
I think we're in a fairly unique position as a research organization to actually add up all the numbers and to report on it.
如果你是暖通空调公司的舒适度顾问或者刚入职的销售，比如被城郊那家夏天满大街打广告的大公司雇用的，你很可能接触不到公司的财务账本。
If you're somebody who's a comfort specialist or a salesperson who just got hired by, like, the big HVAC conglomer down the road that displays a bunch of billboards during the summer, you probably do not have access to the company accounting books.
你根本看不到公司的财务数据。
You do not have access to the financials of the company.
事实上，你的公司可能是被一家私募股权公司收购的，所有财务数据都合并到上层了。
And as a matter of fact, your company might be owned by a private equity firm, and the financials get rolled up into that higher level.
所以我觉得，很多舒适度顾问根本就接触不到这些信息。
So I feel like a lot of comfort specialists might not even have access to this data.
但以我们这个平台的视角，我们只是想跟大家说一点：
But in our capacity with an audience, I think we're just trying to convey to people, hey.
我不能代表所有暖通公司，但就我们自己而言，过去两年已经做了将近一百个安装项目。
I can't speak for every single HVAC company out there, but for us, we've done nearly a 100 installations at this point in the past two years.
根据这些数据的平均值，我们现在看到的情况是这样的。
And based on the average, this is what we're seeing right now.
这就是我们的报价。
And here's our pricing.
如果其他公司的定价和我们发布的差不多，那它们的成本结构大概也差不多。
And if any other company prices somewhere around the prices that we post, you can expect that they might have roughly the same amount of breakdown.
对。
Yep.
还有个有趣的事儿，之前我们在奥兰多参加 HVAC 展会的时候，有个人在我们的文章底下留言说：‘你们就是一群连扳手都没摸过的笑话。’
And another fun story of the show your proof is we were at RE, the it was HVAC conference in Orlando, and some guy commented on one of our articles saying, quote, you guys are clowns who have never picked up a wrench before.
这些数字根本说不通。
These numbers don't make sense.
你们没考虑到这一点。
You're not taking this into account.
你们没考虑到这一点。
You're not taking this into account.
我们第一反应就是：好吧。
And the first thing we wanna say is like, okay.
谢谢你指出我们哪里出错了。
I appreciate you telling us where we messed up, where we're wrong.
那反例是什么？
What's the counter?
你能给我们解释一下吗？
Can can you explain to us?
一直没回应。
Never answered.
我们需要一个答复。
We want answers.
我们想说明，别人定价这么高，背后是有合理原因的。
We wanna show that the reason people are charging what they're charging is for a valid reason.
那就拿证据给我们看。
So show it to us.
把证据展示给客户看。
Show it to the customer.
如果你愿意，可以跟我们聊聊。
If you want, talk to us,
我们可以把这些信息传达给客户。
we could then broadcast that out to customers.
所以拿出证据来。
So show the proof.
我有话要说。
I got something to say.
值得一提的是，这位先生持有EPA 608认证。
For the record, this guy has an EPA six zero eight license.
这位先生还是认证的HERS评估师。
This guy is also a certified HERS rater.
我们确实亲手拿过扳手。
We have picked up wrenches.
事实上，这位先生会用数字微米表。
As a matter of fact, this guy knows how to use a digital micron gauge.
没错。
That's right.
我已经安装过热泵了。
Like I've installed heat pumps now.
我曾经
I had
为了真正了解这个行业，我必须亲自动手。
to get it to fully understand the industry.
对吧？
Right?
我不想做个连扳手都没碰过的门外汉。
I didn't wanna be a clown who had never touched a wrench.
我想做个真正拿过扳手的门外汉。
I wanted to be a clown who did touch a wrench.
现在我就是这样的状态。
Now that's where I am.
这句正好能当这集的标题。
That's the title of the episode right there.
好吧。
Alright.
各位，我觉得这堪称是对 homeowner 教育必要性与力量最清晰的阐述了。
Guys, I think it's one of the best articulations of the need and power of educating a homeowner.
我们这个播客一直强调的，是向 homeowner 解释建筑科学背后的原理有多重要。
Much of what we've focused on this podcast is the power of educating homeowners on the sort of building science why behind a design.
我觉得，向 homeowner 说明定价背后的理由，也同样具有强大的力量。
I think needing to educate homeowners on the why behind the pricing, also quite powerful.
我觉得你说得对，基特。
I think and Kit, you're right.
这里面差别可大了。
There's a huge difference.
比如在私募股权整合的公司里，你根本接触不到财务数据，但这一点恰恰是家族企业区别于私募股权公司的关键。
Like, if you were at a private equity roll up, you're not gonna have access to the financials, but it's one of those things that differentiates the family run business from the private equity owned business.
我想深入聊聊汉南这件事——他以前是个连扳手都没碰过的门外汉，现在却成了真懂行的人。
But I wanna dig in on this Hannan being a clown before who hadn't picked up a wrench, and now is one who has.
那我们来聊聊Manatee是怎么诞生的。
So let's talk about the creation of Manatee.
我挺惊讶的，你们发了几篇文章引起反响之后，还进一步做了这一步。
I was impressed that after you guys had a few articles out there that did make waves, you went to this step.
能详细说说为什么要做这个吗？还有Manatee到底是做什么的？你们从中得到了什么经验？
So tell me more about why and tell us more about what Manatee does and what you've learned from it.
Manatee的诞生是因为我之前做的是商业太阳能业务。
So Manatee was created because my background was in commercial solar.
我在一家太阳能公司领导技术团队，负责优化他们的运营方式。
I led a tech division in a solar company to optimize how they do things.
我一开始发现，你们居然在用Zillow找新地块。
The first thing I did was pretty much see that, hey, you're looking to buy new land through Zillow.
有个人整天在Zillow上刷房源，这种事完全可以用电脑来处理。
And there's one guy who's just growing through Zillow all day, that seems like a job for a computer.
我们只用了两周，就开发出一款软件，能自动扫描所有MLS房源，找出最适合安装太阳能的地块。
In two weeks, we built a piece of software that is able to look at all MLS listings and find optimal sites to build solar.
这让我们潜在客户的数量提升了好几个百分点。
That just increased in our pipeline by a certain percent.
效果相当不错。
That was pretty good.
我当时就想，暖通行业是不是也存在同样的问题。
My thought was seeing the same thing here in HVAC.
我们接触过一些规模很大的承包商，他们确实需要大量投入才能把公司做起来，但其中很多流程都特别低效。
When we talked to contractors who did have massive overheads, which is that's what it takes to develop a company, a lot of it was inefficient.
真的太多了。
A lot of it.
比如，业主通常会至少找三家报价，这意味着你每发出三份报价，就有两份最后不会转化成订单。
For example, if homeowners get minimum three quotes, that means two of every three quotes that you give out is not gonna translate into a job.
你得花时间沟通、开车去业主家里、实地查看、认真做系统设计。
You're now spending time talking, driving out to the homeowner's house, walking around, doing an actual good system design.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这部分成本很大一部分花在了为一个最终没用上的系统设计上，投入了足够的时间和资金。
I think that's also a big part of the cost goes into, is making sure you have enough time and money to put into a thoughtful system design that goes nowhere.
结果却没派上用场。
It goes nowhere.
所以我们开发了这个平台，来自动化很多这些步骤，Manatee 就是这么来的。
So we created this platform to automate a lot of those steps, and that's where Manatee sort of came out.
明白了。
Got it.
所以客户访问 Manatee 网站之后，接下来会发生什么？
So it's a consumer goes to the Manatee website, and what happens from there?
能再详细说说这个流程吗？软件这边是怎么运作的，之后又是怎么转成你们团队实际安装的？
Tell us a little bit more about that process and kinda how the software side works, then how that translates into an install that your team is doing.
是的。
Yeah.
基于前一年我们走访了几十个安装现场、和几十位承包商交流的经验，我们对设计系统所需的逻辑已经有了相当清晰的理解。
So based on everything that we learned from the year before of just walking through dozens of installations, talking to dozens of contractors, we had a pretty good sense of what type of logic goes into designing what system.
我们发现，只要把这套逻辑写成一个简单的算法，结合从房产数据库获取的房屋信息，或者直接问用户几个问题，比如：
And we found out, like, okay, if I implement that logic into a very simple algorithm, given all the information of someone's home that we could pull from a real estate database or just ask for the homework saying, hey.
你家有几个卫生间？
How many bathrooms do you have?
总共有几个房间？
How many rooms do you have?
你过去的能耗是多少？
What's your historical energy usage?
就能大致判断出最适合他们家的系统方案。
We get a pretty good sense of what the optimal system will be in their house.
准确率大概在60%左右，剩下的40%还需要上门后补充一些细节信息。
We found it's been around 60% accurate, and the other 40% needs a little more information that we get on-site.
但这样做的好处是，用户能提前看到报价。
But what this allows is for people to see the price upfront.
同时也能大概知道他们家最可能需要安装多少个出风口。
Same here are how many heads you're most likely gonna need.
你最可能需要这么多台冷凝器。
This is how many condensers you're most likely gonna need.
如果觉得合适，就可以继续推进了。
And if it looks good, move forward with it.
一旦推进，你就需要补充更多细节，这些通常是舒适度专家会问或考虑的问题。
When you move forward, you insert more information about it, something that I think a comfort specialist asked or would most likely take into consideration.
但这能减少发送报价和成交过程中浪费的时间和阻力。
But this reduces the friction and the waste of time that it takes to send out quotes and close jobs.
我们发现，至少在这一点上，行业现在正朝这个方向发展。
We found, at least in this we think that's where the industry is going right now.
房主们都很喜欢这种方式。
Homeowners love it.
他们说，我平时很忙。
They're like, I'm a busy person.
我只有周末有空，可那时候空调师傅都不上班。
I'm only free on the weekends when HVAC contractors don't work.
那现在我该找谁谈呢？
So now who can I talk to?
私募股权支持的公司，他们确实会雇人周末上门服务。
PE backed companies who do hire salespeople to work on the weekends.
这个做法反响很不错。
So it's been well received.
再具体说说实际操作吧。
And a little more on the brass tacks.
你们开发的这个系统，一开始就能给出百分之六十的准确答案。
So you guys have built this thing that can give a 60% accurate answer upfront.
那剩下的百分之四十，是你们自己作为暖通顾问去补充信息，还是直接转给空调安装公司处理？
Are you guys the comfort specialist who's going for those 40% to get more information, or are you at that point handing it off to an HVAC contractor as a sub?
要完全理解整个流程，我们自己就在这么做。
Well, to fully understand how whole process works, we're doing it.
你们看，我和基特会亲自上门，用一个叫 Amply 的很厉害的 Manual J 应用，为住户精确计算房屋的热负荷。
So you see Kit and I going to people's homes using a very cool Manual J app called Amply to get an accurate thermal or helo calculation of someone's home.
谢谢。
Thank you.
去回几封邮件。
Check some email.
是的。
Yeah.
非常感谢。
I appreciate it.
这样我们就把所有需要了解的细节都确认清楚了。
And that sort of finalizes all the details we need to know.
我们发现，通常来说，结果都很准确。
And what we found is, again, usually, it's on point.
如果不太准，我们会告诉业主：
If it's not, we tell the homeowner, hey.
大概会相差这么多。
It's gonna change by this much.
我们有个价目表。
We have a pricing menu.
对吧？
Right?
当承包商去客户家里，发现一些小问题，其实不需要额外的人工或成本，这些我们早就算好了，也会提前告诉业主。
You went into or we talked about when a contractor goes to a home and finds all these little things that doesn't require extra work or extra overhead, we have that already calculated and shown to a homeowner.
所以当我们说，比如哪些是额外加价的项目？
So when we say, hey, what what are example of, like, hard adders?
你在一个三层公寓的三楼，空调管线需要拉得很长。
You're on a 3rd Floor of a triple decker, and the line set needs to
长度得增加。
be long.
是的。
Yeah.
你也在为承包商承担风险。
You're taking the risk for your contractors as as well.
这就会多出一笔费用。
That's gonna be an adder.
但我们会在一个小菜单里列出来，如果您的房子属于这些情况之一，我们就加上这笔费用。
But we show it on a little menu, which, this is what it's gonna be if your house falls into any of these little adders, we're gonna add it.
而且说实话，我们只遇到过一个人因为觉得比预期贵而退出了。
And, again, we found that I think we only had one person who ever dropped out saying, oh, okay, that's more than I thought.
我完全没问题。
I'm okay.
其他人都能接受，因为我们一直透明公开。
Everyone else has been totally okay with it, because we're transparent.
我们会明确告诉您，为什么价格会更高。
We're like, this is why it costs more.
你们也负责安装吗？
And are you guys also doing the install?
我知道你们做过一些，但现在这是你们的主要业务模式吗？
I know you've done some, but are you is that like your business model now?
或者你们现在已经摸清楚该怎么定价了。
Or you're like, now we know enough how to price it.
安装这块我们是外包的。
We hand off the install.
还是你们自己有安装团队？
Or you guys have an install team?
没错。
That's right.
欢迎来到汉南暖通公司，汉南本人会亲自安装每一台空调设备。
Welcome to Hannan's HVAC company, where Hannan will personally install every single one of your HVAC.
我们是拿着扳手的小丑。
We're called clowns with wrenches.
我们戴着红鼻子，头发也特别夸张。
We come with red noses, and we come with big hair.
不是。
No.
实际上，我们已经筛选过很多承包商了。
In reality, we've vetted a lot of contractors.
我想你也知道，我们跟几十个承包商都聊过。
I think, as you know, we have talked to dozens and dozens of contractors.
在跟几十家承包商深入交流之后，我们最终挑出了大概三家特别靠谱的，这一年一直跟他们合作。
And after having talked to multiple dozens of contractors, we have vetted and selected maybe about three contractors who we believe are highly reliable, and we've consistently worked with them throughout the year.
所以我们的分包商圈子非常小。
So it's a super small subcontracting network.
明白了。
Got it.
没错。
Very
挺好的。
cool.
所以你们负责初步报价。
So you guys do the preliminary pricing.
你们负责做负荷计算，如果报价合理，就锁定方案，然后交给那两三个经过严格筛选的合作伙伴，由他们完成整个安装和调试工作。
You help with the load calculation, and then at that point, if the pricing looks right, everything's locked in, you hand it off to one of these two or three highly vetted partners that you're you're working with, and they do the full install, the commissioning, everything else.
是的。
Yeah.
我们还制定了关于优质安装的标准流程。
And we sort of we tried laying down the guidelines of of what we expect for a good install.
我们内部用了一份从PANL借鉴来的检查清单。
We have an internal checklist that we borrowed from the p a n n l.
这份清单是开源的，列出了所有必须记录的要点，确保系统能高效运行、长期耐用。
It has a great open source, like, this is what you need to record to make sure that the system's gonna be operated efficiently and last a long time.
我们几乎每天都到场。
And we're there almost every day.
大多数安装项目，我们都会在第一天和最后八天亲自到场监督。
For most installs, we're there for day one and the last eight.
你能告诉我，这件事最难的地方在哪吗？
Can I tell you what's hard about that?
我的意思是，现在每个人心里想的都一样。
I mean, everybody's thinking the same thing right now.
如果你跟不同的团队合作，你怎么能保证系统真的安装到位了呢？
Well, if you're working with different teams, how are you sure that the systems are actually installed properly?
我给你的答案是，我们会亲自到场，监督这些安装团队的头几十个项目，看着他们做压力测试。
Well, my answer to you is we actually show up for the first couple dozen installations that any one of these installation crews do, and that we sit on the launcher, we watch them as they do the pressure test.
我开玩笑的。
I'm kidding.
我们其实不去。
We don't.
但我们会去头几个现场。
But we will actually show up to the first couple.
我的意思是，前几十个安装项目，我们都会亲自到场，直到确认这些团队真的懂行为止。
Like, you know, we are personally showing up to these installations for the first couple dozen until we verify that these are actually teams that they know what they're doing.
但我有个大胆的看法：再过几年，单体热泵厂商都会在产品里内置远程诊断功能，这样每个启动的系统都能直接通过 fleet 管理员或业主的手机，确认是否安装正确、运行正常。
But my hot take is that in a couple of years, single heat pump OEM is going to have remote diagnostics built into their heat pumps from the start so that every single system that turns on can be verified that they are working and installed correctly, directly tied to either a fleet manager or homeowner's phone.
当然，有几家初创公司在做这个方向，但我想在这档播客里特别提一下，我们发现Diagon这家厂商已经在美国部署了超过三十万台具备这项功能的设备。
Of course, there are a couple of startups that are specializing in that, but I would like to say on this particular podcast that we found out that Diagon, of all OEMs, actually has had this going for 300,000 plus units across The United States.
所以你看，既然Diagon已经在做了，我相信其他厂商很快也会跟上。
So look, if Diagon's doing it, I think everybody's gonna be doing it soon.
对。
Yeah.
这也印证了我们的观点——技术将会极大推动这个行业的发展，就像Amply在Manual Js上的做法，还有Navac的管道扩口器让压力接头变得更标准、更牢固。
And that goes to our belief of, like, at least I think technology is gonna help this industry a lot similar to what Amply is doing with Manual Js, what Navac pipe expander has done for making pressure fittings a lot more standardized and a lot stronger.
我觉得OEM厂商也会朝这个方向走，通过远程健康监测来判断：压力是否正常？
I think similar similarly will be done with OEMs and just the health telemetry, saying like, okay, is the pressure good?
进水和出水的温度是否达标？
Is the line in, line out temperatures good?
没必要每次有点异常就派人上门检查了。
You don't send someone out every time something is a little weird to know if something's wrong.
现在你只要打开手机App，数据就会通过联网设备自动传过来。
Now you look at your app, it's getting sent in via a connected device.
就是这样。
Boom.
你知道现在发生什么了。
You know what's happening.
完全没错。
Totally.
对。
Yeah.
现在有一种理念，叫自调试、自诊断。
There's this world with this idea of self commissioning, self diagnostics.
你知道，室内机上装了各种传感器。
You know, there's sensors on the indoor unit.
室外机里也全是传感器。
You've got all the sensors in the outdoor unit.
所有的压力、温度、气流，全都能监测到。
You've got all your pressures, all your temperatures, all your air flows.
你可以实时分析能效比。
You can do real time COP analysis.
你能清楚了解系统各部分的温差，验证它是否真的达到了实验室测试在当前家庭环境下所预期的性能标准。
You can understand what's the delta t in every part of the system and verify that it's actually meeting the specs that the the testing that was done in the laboratory was expected given the current conditions in this exact home.
没错，埃里克。
Exactly, Eric.
我们特别喜欢数据。
We love data.
数据越多，我们就越开心。
So the more data we have, the happier we are.
我们知道，大多数厂商，比如LG，都会在设备内部记录所有这些传感器数据。
And we know that with most manufacturers, like, for example, LG, they're recording all of these sensor data within the unit.
如果你是来采购设备的，带上专用工具一插，所有信息就一目了然。
You come on if you're sourcing the unit, you come on with a sourcing tool, plug it in, and you see all the information.
只要把这些数据整合起来，你就能成为更高效、运营水平更高的安装服务商。
Just get that to be stringed out somewhere, and now you're a much leaner and higher operationally advanced installer.
好的。
Alright.
能了解你们的整个历程、获得这些洞见和决策过程，真的特别有意思。
So this has been fascinating to get the journey, the insights, the decisions you guys made.
接下来的十二到二十四个月，Laminar和Manatee会怎么发展？
What does the next twelve to twenty four months look like for Laminar slash Manatee?
肯定会有很多尝试。
There's gonna be a lot of experimentation.
这点我可以肯定告诉你。
I'll tell you that.
我们会做更多安装，同时用最新的尖端设备做各种实验。
We're gonna do more installations, and then we're gonna experiment on the latest cutting edge equipment.
当初我刚创办Laminar Collective时，确实希望让热泵安装变得更亲民。
Now, when I first started Laminar Collective, I definitely wanted to make it affordable for people to install heat pumps.
但现在，随着我们完成的安装量越来越大，对安装过程的掌控也越来越强，我们发现完全可以把市场上新出的产品拿过来，实际部署到现场，再把数据反馈回去。
But now, with the amount of installations that we're handling, and the amount of control that we have over these installations, we find it possible to actually take new products in the market and deploy them out in the field and then report on them.
现在市面上有不少特别酷的初创公司。
So there are really cool startups out there.
比如Reservoir和Kala Systems这些公司。
Well, such as, for example, Reservoir, Kala Systems.
它们正在研发新型热泵热水器，尤其是Reservoir，还配备了远程诊断功能。
They're building new heat pump water heaters, and Reservoir in particular has remote diagnostics.
由于制冷剂的更新换代，所有热泵制造商都在推出新产品。
You've got every single heat pump manufacturer coming out with new products because of the refrigerant transition.
去年我们测试了几款中型设备。
Last year, we tested a couple of media units.
我们测试了LG的产品。
We tested LG.
今年我们会去试用大金的设备。
This year, we're gonna test out Daikin.
三菱的设备我们去年就已经测试过了。
We've already tested out Mitsubishi last year.
现在每一套迷你分体空调都自带Wi-Fi功能。
Every single mini split is now Wi Fi connected out of the box.
我们的目标是成为像《汽车与驾驶》那样的杂志，只不过主题换成电气化设备。
We wanna basically be the car and driver magazine just to bring it back to cars, but for electrification.
这些新系统的价格，差不多就跟买一辆新车差不多。
Because you're spending pretty much the same amount as you are on a new car with some of these new systems.
在Laminar Collective这边，情况就是这样。
That's how it's gonna be on the Laminar Collective side.
不过说到Manatee，你觉得怎么样？
But for Manatee, though, what do you think?
对。
Yeah.
我希望继续开发更多自动化工具，让安装公司的运营更高效。
I'm like, I hope to keep building more automations and more tools that make it more efficient to run an installation company.
我理想中的状态，是把这些工具都做成开源产品。
I mean, my ideal world is to release these as open source products.
人们愿意接受这种技术，这能降低运营成本，从而让热泵更便宜。
People want to adopt it and it leads to lower overhead and thus lower cost for heat pumps.
我非常支持这一点。
Big fan of
没错。
that.
汉南接下来要连续24小时不停歇地写代码，实际上，接下来整整一年都会这样。
Hannan is about to go on collab code nonstop for the next twenty four hours and, as a matter of fact, the next twelve months.
顺便澄清一下，我本人是
As also to straighten the record out, I am
一名有13年经验的软件工程师。
a software engineer of thirteen years.
我完全不是什么‘Vibe程序员’。
I am not a Vibe coder at all.
我做过这个，之前在IBM工作过。
I've done this I worked at IBM.
我真的很喜欢软件开发。
So I love software.
我知道怎么用它。
I know how to use it.
但Flagua让开发软件和添加新功能变得快多了。
But Flagua has made it really easy to develop these software and then features a lot quicker.
太棒了。
Very cool.
这真的很令人兴奋。
That's exciting.
我还没听说过谁有志于成为电动化领域的《汽车驾驶》杂志。
I have not heard of anyone with the ambition to be the car driver magazine of electrification.
这真是一个很有力量的愿景。
So that's a powerful vision.
这个世界确实需要这样的东西。
The world needs it.
这正是大家所需要的。
It's what the people want.
基特、哈南，太棒了。
Kit, Hannan, awesome.
非常感谢你们做客《Heap Home》播客。
Thank you so much for joining us on the Heap Home Podcast.
也谢谢你，埃德。
Thanks so much, Ed.
我们特别喜欢Amply。
We love Amply.
每个人都应该用Amply。
Everybody should use Amply.
我们非常感激，也感谢你们提供这个平台，让我们分享理念和呼吁行动。
We we appreciate it, and thank you for letting us have a place to share our beliefs and call to action.
如果有任何人想在研究上合作，或者想交流信息，我们随时欢迎。
If anyone wants to partner up on research or wants to share information, we're always open to it.
我们所有的研究都发布在Laminar Collective的Substack上。
You can find all of our research published on the Laminar Collective Substack.
你直接在谷歌搜索'Laminar Collective Substack'就行。
You can go ahead and Google Laminar Collective Substack.
Laminar是L-A-M-I-N-A-R，就像层流气流，你们做暖通空调的应该都懂。
That's l a m I n a r, like laminar airflow, which you should know as an HVAC professional.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
谢谢各位。
Thanks, guys.
这真挺有意思的。
This is really fun.
感谢收听Heap Hop播客。
Thanks for listening to the Heap Hop Podcast.
本节目由Amply Energy制作。
It is a production of Amply Energy.
顺便提醒一下，节目中表达的观点属于我们的嘉宾或我们自己，具体取决于当时是谁在发言。
And just a reminder that the opinions voiced were those of our guests or us depending on who was talking.
如果你喜欢刚才的内容，还没订阅的话，欢迎在你常用的播客平台订阅我们。
If you like what you've heard and haven't subscribed, please subscribe in your favorite podcast platform.
我们很期待听到你的反馈，随时欢迎联系。
We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out.
你可以再次通过 hello@Amply.energy.No.com 联系我们，注意是 just.energy。
You can reach us once again at hello@Amply.energy.No.com,just.energy.
非常感谢。
Thanks a lot.
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