亿万富翁警告：房地产市场将永远不再相同（立即这样做）

但就我看来，现在房地产交易和好机会并不多。

But not a lot of real estate deals and great opportunities as far as I'm concerned.

那段时间算是比较低迷的。

That was sort of a slower period.

现在我觉得，由于多种原因，房地产领域正处在一个非常令人兴奋且活跃的阶段。

Right now, I think is a really exciting and dynamic period for a variety of reasons.

有些我们已经聊过了，比如业主老龄化、房产易主，还有传统融资渠道重新开放。

Some we've discussed, folks aging out, properties transferring, conventional financing being available.

另外，当然了，bonus depreciation政策和成为房地产专业人士，现在真是个绝佳时机，给当前做交易的人带来了更多动力。

And also, of course, bonus depreciation and being a real estate professional is a super exciting moment and gives a lot more juice to the real estate professionals doing deals right now.

你觉得市场里有什么潜在风险吗？

Do you see any red flags in the market?

因为很多人可能会说，确实有很多业主在退出市场。

Because a lot of people could say, well, there are a lot of people aging out.

市场上接下来会涌入更多房源。

There's gonna be more inventory coming in the market.

利率现在挺高的。

Interest rates are pretty high.

很多零售生意都转到线上了。

A lot of retail is now going online.

你只需要在偏远地方找大型仓库，价格还很便宜。

You just need big warehouses in the middle of nowhere that are pretty cheap.

嗯，明白了。

K.

你这话说得太宽泛了。

You're talking just broad.

其实每个地方都有宝藏。

I there is a jewel everywhere.

我做的是珠宝生意。

So I'm in the jewelry business.

我一直在找那些隐藏的宝藏，哪儿都能去。

I'm out looking for that little jewel, and you can go anywhere.

有些最好的机会其实藏在那些最不起眼的三四线城市，因为没人盯着那儿。

And some of the best jewels are in the most most secondary tertiary markets in the country because people aren't there paying attention.

所以利率高我不在乎。

So the interest rates don't bother me.

整体经济怎么样我也无所谓。

The general economy doesn't bother me.

我一直在找机会。

I'm out looking for opportunities.

你这一生中，什么时候赚钱最容易？

When in your life has it been the easiest to make a lot of money?

我这人一直挺稳的，年纪也不小了。

I've had a pretty consistent long run, old guy here.

过去四十年，我一直在持续打拼。

For the last forty years, I've been cranking it out.

对我来说，你得不断调整策略。

And to me, you gotta change your play up.

所以如果一种方式行不通，我以前建过街边购物中心。

So if one play isn't working, I was building strip shopping centers.

那行当后来就结束了。

That ended.

我只能转做别的。

I had to do something else.

我做过运营公司，那个也结束了。

I was doing operating companies, that ended.

现在我专注小规模交易和额外折旧。

Now I'm doing smaller deals and bonus depreciation.

所以我觉得，得不断调整，找到当下真正有效的交易方式。

So I think you have to keep changing up what deals work in a particular time.

哪一笔交易最显著地提升了你的净资产？

What deal single handedly positively affected your net worth the most?

2016年我买下了一家叫Galleria Koffoff的德国百货连锁，三年后卖给竞争对手，赚了十亿美元现金利润。

I bought a German department store chain in 2016 called Galleria Koffoff, and three years later, I sold it to our competitor and made a billion dollar cash profit.

这笔交易是在疫情爆发前的八月完成的。

And that was sold in August before right before the pandemic.

顺便说一句，这故事后面还有更精彩的。

By the way, the story is much better.

那个家伙是个特别疯狂的独行侠。

The guy was this crazy rogue.

我当时经营着一家上市公司。

I was running a public company.

我必须把这笔交易搞定。

I had to finish the deal.

我得坐飞机过去，直接把直升机降落在他的游艇上，在游艇上谈完条件，他最终在2019年8月签了字。

I had to fly in on a plane, land my helicopter on his yacht, finish negotiating the deal on his yacht, and then he finally closed in August '19.

到了五月，他就破产了。

By May, he went bankrupt.

他花三百五十亿欧元买下这家公司，才六个月就破产了。

So he bought the business for 3 and a half billion euros, and six months later was bankrupt.

这家公司破产了三次，两年前我儿子以一欧元的价格买下了它。

The company went bankrupt three times, and then my son bought the company for €1 two years ago.

天哪。

Wow.

等等。

Wait.

所以你买下这家公司花了多少钱？

So so so so you bought this company for how much?

加勒里亚咳嗽公司，我们当初是以26亿欧元买下的。

Galleria Cough Off, we bought for €2,600,000,000.

三年后，我把公司卖给了雷妮·班科，净赚了十亿美元现金，交易是在2019年8月，疫情爆发前刚完成的。

Three years later, I sold it to Renee Banco for a billion dollar cash US dollar profit, and we closed in August 2019 right before the pandemic.

可惜疫情来了，公司六个月后就破产了，而且这已经是第三次了。

Unfortunately, the pandemic hit, and the business went bankrupt six months later, and it went bankrupt three times.

后来德国政府接管了这家公司。

The German government took it over.

顺便说一下，Banco先生现在正在坐牢。

By the way, mister Banco, unfortunately, is in jail right now.

我儿子经营的私人股权公司，还有我们旗下的DC Equity Partners，于2024年7月从德国政府手中收购了这家破产企业。

And the private equity firm that my son runs and our DC Equity Partners bought the business out of bankruptcy from the German government in July 2024.

一欧元？

For €1?

对，一欧元。

For €1.

怎么没人出两欧元竞标呢？

Why didn't someone else bid €2?

因为根本没人想要，毕竟谁也不想接手这种快倒闭的老牌百货连锁店。我倒是能进出这些生意，但真不是一般人能扛得住的。

Because no one wanted it, because no one wants these dying old department store chains, And I've been able to buy and sell and in and out of these businesses, but they're not for the faint in heart.

这些生意太难做了。

They're very difficult businesses.

那风险在哪呢？

What's the risk though?

因为我感觉，哪怕就买一天，花二十美元也值了。

Because I feel like I would pay $20 just to say I own this for, like, a day.

下次我要是缺二十美元，就找你，拜托了。

Well, next time I need $20, I'll call you up and Please.

咱们就这么办。

And we'll do it.

算我一个。

Consider me.

对我来说，最转折的时刻，是从开发购物中心转去收购劳伦斯百货连锁店。

I I guess the the most game changing moment for me was when I went from developing shopping centers to buying Lord and Taylor department store chain.

那时候梅西百货和梅公司合并了。

So Macy's had merged with May Company.

他们手里有劳伦斯百货。

They own Lord and Taylor.

但他们根本不想留着这家店。

They didn't wanna own Lord and Taylor.

他们想把它卖了。

They wanted to sell it.

在它正式挂牌前，我就听说它要出售，于是以地产人的身份做了大量分析。

And I sort of before it went on the market, I got a a win that it was gonna be for sale, and I did a lot of analysis on it as a real estate guy.

我仔细分析了那块地产。

And I analyzed the real estate.

我发现有49处极佳的物业，其中包括第五大道的乐泰百货大楼。

What I found was 49 spectacular properties, including the 5th Avenue, Lord And Taylor Building.

所以我买它的目的就是为了那块地产。

So I wanted to buy it for its real estate.

梅西百货想卖，开价12亿美元。

Macy's wanted to sell it, and they wanted to sell it for $1,200,000,000.

他们不想跟别人谈，也不接受任何低于这个价的报价。

They didn't want anyone else they didn't wanna take anything less.

尽管这看起来不太合理，我还是谈成了这笔交易。

And I made a deal even though I wasn't illogical.

我不是凯雷那样的私募股权人士，当时有很多人竞标这个项目。

I wasn't a private equity guy in KKR and all kinds of people were bidding on it.

他们希望我买下来，因为觉得我作为房地产从业者，会把它拆了卖了。

They wanted me to buy it because they thought as a real estate guy, I was gonna liquidate it.

他们就是希望发生这种情况。

That's what they wanted to happen.

他们希望劳德与泰勒彻底消失。

They wanted Lord and Taylor to go away.

他们不想亲自出面，因为

They just didn't wanna get their hands dirty that they were Because

他们的名字还跟这个项目绑在一起？

their name was still attached to it?

是的。

Yeah.

他们不想成为那个裁员、把整个生意清盘的人。

They didn't wanna be the people they didn't wanna be the people firing all those employees and liquidating the business.

于是我进去和他们谈妥了，以12亿美元买下拉德百丽。

So I went in and I negotiated a deal with them to buy Lord and Taylor for 1,200,000,000.

现在我和我的房地产律师，正在和这家市值数十亿美元的联邦百货公司谈判，每天都在来回修改文件、讨价还价。

So now me, my real estate attorney, we're negotiating with Federated, this many billion dollar company, and we're turning papers and negotiating every day.

我父亲每天都打电话来问：你到底在搞什么？

And my father starts calling me every day and like, what are you doing?

我们从不买十亿美金级别的公司。

We don't buy $1,200,000,000 companies.

他们肯定会要求付定金。

They're gonna ask for a deposit.

对方请的是摩根大通、斯卡登·阿普斯和高盛这些大牌投行。

They're represented by JPMorgan, Scadden Arps, and Goldman Sachs.

你的结构，你那个……我之前只做过100个单体购物中心，每个都用独立的有限责任公司。

Your entity your your I had just done a 100 shopping centers with single purpose LLCs.

所以，我一分钱没出，就先签了购买意向书，接着拿到审批，等所有准备工作做完才正式交割。

And so with no money, I had gotten purchase agreements, and then I had gotten approvals and closed after I'd done all the work.

他说，人家不可能这么就把一家值十二亿美元的公司卖给你。

He's like, they're not gonna sell you a 1,200,000,000 good dollar company that way.

我说，别紧张。

I said, relax.

我名下有个实体，叫NRDC Equity Partners Fund Seven，是个专门为此设立的公司。

I have my entity NRDC Equity Partners Fund seven, which was a single purpose entity.

等他们要查保证金或者账户里有没有钱的时候，我就找我一个朋友，让别人出面做这笔交易，我来操盘，拿提成。

And when they figure out or when they want to see a deposit or that there's money in the account, I'll go to one of my friends and I'll get someone else to do the deal and I'll manage it and get it promote.

我们正在处理文件。

So we're doing the papers.

我们正在处理文件。

We're doing the papers.

当然啦，我们这些人本来就很引人注目，诸如此类的。

And of course, you know, we're fairly high profile people and whatever.

有一天半夜，我在时代广场给父亲打电话，因为律师办公室就在时代广场。

One day I I at midnight, I call my father from Times Square because the lawyer's office was in Times Square.

我跟他说，他们已经签了购买协议。

And I say to him, they signed the purchase agreement.

结果所有顾问、全世界顶尖的律师，居然没人要求看我这个特殊目的实体的财务报表。

And so all the consultants, all the best lawyers in the world, and no one had asked to see the financials for my single purpose entity.

他们只是默认我们是个投资基金。

And they just kind of assumed that we were some fund.

所以你就是注册了个LLC之类的，对吧。

So you created an LLC or like some Yeah.

对，就是LLC，我们每做一笔交易都会设一个。

Like an LLC, like every time every deal we do.

我一共有两百个LLC。

I have a I have 200 LLCs.

然后你就随便注册了一个。

And you just created a random one.

我给它起了个名字，叫NRDC，这是我们私募股权公司的名字。

And I put a name on it, NRDC, which was the name of our private equity firm.

NRDC股权合作伙伴基金七期。

NRDC Equity Partners Fund seven.

之前根本不存在一到六期。

There were no ones through six.

顺便说一句，我经常跟人这么说。

I just by the way, that's I tell people all the time.

弄个官网吧。

Have a landing page.

摘下你的棒球帽，穿上西装、白衬衫，样子得像那么回事。

Take your baseball hat off, wear a jacket and a a white shirt, you know, look the part.

我打扮得像模像样，他们就跟我签了购买协议。

So I looked the part, and they entered into a purchase agreement with me.

我父亲说，这不错，但咱们得凑齐十二亿美元。

So now my father says, well, that's great, but we're gonna come up with the $1,200,000,000.

我说，这事我明天再搞定。

I said, I'll work on that tomorrow.

挂了电话，我回到办公室，和我的小团队一起在一张纸、一块白板上，搞出了一个叫‘Lord and Taylor控股公司’的实体。

So hung up the phone, went back to my office, my little team, and we created on a piece of paper, a whiteboard, a holding company called Lord and Taylor Holding Company.

运营公司每年的EBITDA有1.2亿美元。

The operating company had a $120,000,000 of EBITDA.

所以我们设了两家公司，一家运营公司，一家资产公司。

So we created an operating company and a property company.

运营公司每年向资产公司支付8000万美元的租金。

The operating company paid $80,000,000 in rent to the property company.

这样一来，我就有了一个资产公司，名下拥有第五大道、纽约斯卡斯代尔、康涅狄格州斯坦福、长岛曼哈塞特，总共49处物业。

And so now I had a property company that owned 5th Avenue and Scarsdale, New York and Stanford, Connecticut and Manhasset, Long Island, 49 properties.

那是2006年初。

It was 2006, the beginning of 2006.

那时候市场特别热，泡沫满满。

Markets were very great and bubbly.

我去找了三家挺靠谱的机构——贝尔斯登、雷曼兄弟，还有CIT，就在它们第一次破产之前。

I went to these three nice institutions, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and CIT before they went bankrupt the first time.

这三家机构一共借给我11.75亿美元，用来收购拉尔夫·泰勒。

And the three of these firms lent me $1,175,000,000 to buy Lord and Taylor.

于是我不得不回去找我父亲和两位合伙人——比尔·麦肯和李·伊巴特，我们四个人一起商量。

So I now had to go back to my father and my two partners, Bill Mack and Lee and Ibart, and the four of us.

我得向他们游说这个项目。

And I had to pitch them.

这可能是我这辈子最难推销的一件事，因为在我们家的房地产生意里，我们从不往项目里投钱。

This is the hardest sell of my life because in my family real estate business, we don't put money into deals.

如果你连怎么不花钱或者几乎不花钱就能做成的事都搞不定，那这项目就不在我们的考虑范围内。

Like, if you're not smart enough to figure out how to do it without any money or almost no money, then it's not our deal.

对他们来说，我家这一帮人拿出2500万美元已经很难了，但为了全资控制一家估值12亿美元的公司，只花2500万，大家最终都同意了。

So for them, for my family, my gang to put up 25,000,000 was a hard sell, but to control a $1,200,000,000 company, a 100% for $25,000,000, everyone agreed.

我父亲有点不情愿，但最后还是都投了。

My father was a little grumpy, but we all put it in.

就这样，我们正式拥有了拉尔夫·泰勒。

And now we owned Lord and Taylor.

我们原本打算尽快把整个公司清盘，把钱全收回来就撤。

The idea was to liquidate the whole thing as fast as possible, get all our money back and go.

但就在快要成交的时候，发生了一件意想不到的事——梅西百货正在把所有原属梅的门店统一改造成梅西品牌，不再用马歇尔菲尔德和菲林斯这些名字。

But a crazy thing happened on the way to the closing, which was Macy's was rebranding all of the May stores and everything Macy's instead of Marshall Fields and instead of filings.

有些顾客说：我不想变成梅西的顾客。

And some of the customers were like, I don't wanna be a Macy's shopper.

结果，在我们正式接手之前，Lord and Taylor的销售额就开始涨了10%。

And the Lord and Taylor sales, even before we closed, started going up by 10%.

真没想到。

Wow.

我当时就想，经营一家百货连锁店，能有多难呢？

So I was like, oh, how hard could it be to run a department store chain?

不如先不清盘了，我来亲自运营，等将来时机成熟再出手也不迟。

I'll run it instead of liquidating it, and I'll liquidate it in the future when the time comes.

于是我就以董事长的身份，把Lord and Taylor从2006年一直经营到疫情爆发，这家店本来在2006年就要破产关门的，结果我们把它做得相当不错。

So I ended up operating as a chairman, this Lord and Taylor business from 2006 to the kept running to the pandemic, a business that would have been bankrupt and or closed three months later in 2006, and we did very nice.

我们先把第五大道的那栋楼卖给了WeWork，后来又卖给了亚马逊，他们为这座Lord & Taylor第五大道大楼付了12亿美元。

We sold the 5th Avenue Building to first to WeWork, and then to Amazon who paid $1,200,000,000 just for the Lord And Taylor 5th Avenue Building.

就为一栋楼？

Just for one building?

对，就一栋楼。

One building.

那你当时是把整个业务都买下来了？

And you bought the entire

整个公司花了12亿美元。

Business for 1,200,000,000.

所以你靠这一栋楼就把全部本钱都捞回来了。

So you got it all back from one building.

我们赚了钱。

We made money.

我们确实投了资。

We had input.

这还没算上数亿美元的库存和房产呢。

That doesn't include include, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of inventory and properties.

我们过得还不错，但更重要的是

We did fine, but more importantly

还不错。

Fine.

我们确实还行。

We did we did okay.

我们表现得还行。

We do okay.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

确实如此。

We do.

我们确实做到了。

We do.

我们勉强撑过来了。

We got by.

但更重要的是，我用Lord and Taylor收购了哈德逊湾公司，那是一家非常了不起的公司，却在方方面面都搞得一塌糊涂。

So but more importantly, I used Lord and Taylor to buy Hudson's Bay Company, which was a tremendous company and totally screwed up in every way you can imagine.

说说哈德逊湾公司吧。

Explain Hudson's Bay Company.

经营企业时，总有一件事你一直打算以后再搞明白。

There is literally always that one part of running a business that you keep meaning to figure out later.

对很多老板来说，这件事就是发工资，这也正是我们与Gusto合作赞助本集的原因。

And for a lot of owners, that's payroll, and that is exactly why we've partnered with Gusto to sponsor this episode.

Gusto是一款专为中小企业设计的薪资与福利管理软件。

Gusto is a payroll and benefits software built for small businesses.

它功能集成，支持远程办公，操作极其简单，让你无论在哪里都能准时发薪，好好支持你的团队。

It's all in one, remote friendly, and incredibly easy to use, so you could pay higher onboard and support your team from anywhere.

Gusto 负责处理工资税申报、直接存款、健康保险、401(k)、工伤保险，所有这些都包括在内。

Gusto handles payroll tax filing, direct deposits, health benefits, four zero one k, workers' comp, all of it.

如果你遇到任何棘手的人力资源问题，可以直接联系认证的人力资源专家。

And if you ever hit a tough HR situation, you get direct access to certified HR experts.

切换起来也非常简单。

Switching is also incredibly easy.

你只要把现有数据迁移过去，很快就能开始使用。

You just transfer over your existing data and you are up and running fast.

在你第一次发工资之前，一分钱都不用付。

You won't pay a cent until you run your first payroll.

之后就是每月固定费用，发多少次工资都包含在内。

Then after that, it's one flat monthly price with unlimited payroll runs.

其实早在我们和 Gusto 合作之前，我就一直在用它了。

I've actually used Gusto long before we ever partnered with them.

事实上，2020 年我刚成立 S 公司、第一次发工资时，完全不知道从哪儿下手。

In fact, in 2020, when I first set up my S corp and I had to run payroll, I had no idea where to start.

巧的是，我的会计师建议我注册Gusto，我就照做了。

And by chance, my CPA actually told me to sign up for Gusto, and so I did.

他们一步步指导我，从那以后我就一直用他们家的服务。

And they walked me through everything step by step, and I have been using them literally ever since.

Gusto在G2 2026年客户满意度产品榜单上排名第一。

Gusto is ranked number one on G2's highest satisfaction products list for 2026.

超过五十万家中小企业都在使用Gusto。

Over 500,000 small businesses use them.

现在就去gusto.com/iced注册，首次发薪时可免费使用三个月。

So try Gusto today at gusto.com/iced and get three months completely for free when you run your first payroll.

也就是说，在gusto.com/iced注册，发第一笔工资就能免费用三个月。

That is three months of free payroll at gusto.com/iced.

再强调一遍，去gusto.com/iced注册，或者点击下方描述里的链接，马上开始使用。

One more time, that's gusto.com/iced, or click the link down below in the description to sign up and get started today.

另外快速说一下，当你的业务在增长时，你需要更多人手。

Now really quick, when your business is growing, you need more hands on deck.

但培训新人往往要花很多时间，而你通常没这么多空闲。

But training someone takes a lot of time that you usually don't have.

所以精明的企业都在用今天的赞助商——Upwork。

That's why smart businesses are using today's sponsor, Upwork.

Upwork 是一个一站式平台，帮你找到、雇佣并支付来自网页与软件开发、营销、业务运营等125多个领域的专业自由职业者。

Upwork is a one stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers across web and software development, marketing, business operations, and over 125 other categories.

你可以浏览真实的人才档案，查看他们过往的作品， hiring 前就能清楚知道对方能提供什么。

With this, you could browse real profiles, check past work, and see exactly what you're getting before you hire.

使用 Business Plus，你能接触到 Upwork 上前1%的顶尖人才，AI 匹配系统能在六小时内帮你对接上合适的人选。

With Business Plus, you can access the top 1% of talent on Upwork, and AI powered matching gets you connected in under six hours.

Upwork 还把合同和付款都集中管理，整个流程从头到尾都简单省心。

Upwork also handles contracts and payments in one place, so the whole process stays simple from start to finish.

在《冰咖啡时间》这个节目里，我们经常需要处理各种零散任务，我自己就用了好多次 Upwork，真的让整个过程变得轻松又便宜，手续费还是行业最低的。

Here on the iced coffee hour, we need so much just like random work done, and so I've actually used Upwork a ton, and it genuinely makes the entire process easier and way more affordable with industry low fees.

注册完全免费，发布一个任务几分钟就能搞定。

Signing up is completely free, and posting a job just takes minutes.

现在就去 upwork.com/coffee 发布你的职位，完全免费。

Just visit upwork.com/coffee right now and post your job for free.

网址是 upwork.com/coffee，或者点击下方描述里的链接，联系那些随时准备帮你拓展业务的顶尖人才。

That's upwork.com/coffee, or click the link down below in the description to connect with top talent ready to help your business grow.

介绍一下哈德逊湾公司。

Explain Hudson's Bay Company.

哈德逊湾公司是北美历史上持续运营时间最长的企业，1662年由查理二世国王创立，他签署特许状，将所有流入哈德逊湾的流域土地授予他的表亲鲁珀特，鲁珀特也因此成为哈德逊湾公司的首任总督。

Hudson's Bay Company was the longest continuously operating company in North America founded in 1662 by king Charles the second who signed a charter giving all the lands that drain into the Hudson's Bay to his cousin Rupert, who was the first governor of the Hudson Bay Company.

很遗憾，我是哈德逊湾公司最后一任总督。

So I unfortunately was the last governor of the Hudson's Bay company.

所以我接手了这家公司。

So so I took over this company.

其实我是竞标想买下它。

Actually, I bid on buying it.

但被另一位非常出色的创业者杰里·祖克尔出价更高给抢走了，他当时在经营这家公司。

I got outbid by this other fellow, very talented entrepreneur named Jerry Zucker, and he was running the business.

我给他打了电话，说我很想做你的合伙人。

I called him up and said, I'd love to be your partner.

我为这件事做了大量工作。

I did all this work on it.

我是劳德与泰勒公司的董事长兼所有者。

I'm the chairman and owner of Lord and Taylor.

我在加拿大能帮上忙。

I can help you in Canada.

于是我们达成了协议，我收购了哈德逊湾公司20%的股份，但需要一亿美元。

So we made a deal, and I bought 20% of the Hudson's Bay company, but I needed a 100,000,000.

所以我没再找我的团队。

So I wasn't going back to my guys.

于是我用这笔对哈德逊湾公司一亿美元的投资作抵押，借了九千万。

So I went and I borrowed $90,000,000 against the $100,000,000 investment on Hudson Bay.

这样一来，我还差一千万。

So now I was short $10,000,000.

于是我回去找我父亲和合伙人，说我们还需要一千万。

So I went back to my father, my partners, and said we need another $10,000,000.

我父亲对我说：这是你这辈子最后一次从家族生意里拿钱了，以后再也不会有。

My father said to me, this is the last money you ever, for the rest of my life or your life, taking out of this family business.

我说：好。

I said, alright.

别紧张。

Relax.

最后一次，真的最后一次了。

Last last money ever.

再放松点。

Relax again.

所以，放轻松。

So relax.

于是我们把这一千万拿了下来。

So we took the $10,000,000.

现在我们持有哈德逊湾公司百分之二十的股份。

Now we own 20% of the Hudson's Bay company.

时间到了2008年3月。

Now it's March 2008.

我的电话响了。

My phone rings.

是杰瑞·祖克打来的。

It's Jerry Zucker.

我一直都在董事会里。

I've been on the board.

我们一直在努力推进。

We've been working.

但进展不大。

Didn't make much progress.

他跟我说，理查德，我得了脑瘤，接下来三个月内就要走了。

And he says to me, Richard, I have a brain tumor and I'm gonna in the next three months.

我当时就说，天哪。

I'm like, oh my god.

这太糟糕了。

That's terrible.

你知道，我能做点什么吗？

You know, what can I do?

他说，我希望你把公司剩下的股份买下来。

And he said, I want you to buy the balance of the company.

我说，好。

And I said, okay.

我们会看看，嗯，仔细研究一下。

We'll look, you know, we'll look at it.

我立刻联系了他那边的人。

Got his people on the phone.

跟他们谈完就挂了电话，之后再也没跟他联系过，三周后他就走了。

Talked to them, hung up the phone, never spoke to him again three weeks later.

天啊。

Wow.

所以我们从遗产中收购了哈德逊湾公司剩余的股份，交易在2008年7月完成。

So we bought from the estate the balance of the Hudson's Bay Company and closed in July of July of two thousand eight.

那时候，整个世界眼看就要崩盘了。

The world was about to blow up.

就是那样，2008年9月，世界真的崩盘了。

It was that, you know, the world blew up in September 2008.

那我哪来的钱去买下那部分股权呢？

So how did I come up with the money to buy the balance?

我需要五亿美元，因为要完成这笔交易，我得拿出一亿八千万到两亿加元来收购剩余股份。

Well, I needed $500,000,000 because I needed to buy I needed 200 or 180,000,000 Canadian to buy the balance of that deal.

但我手头的其他项目负债累累，我心里越来越没底，所以最终我需要五亿美元。

But my other deal had a lot of debt and I was getting nervous, so I needed $500,000,000.

于是我的合伙人李介绍我认识了阿布扎比的一群非常友善的人，他们专程飞过来，我带他们看了我们所有的地产项目。

So I my partner, Lee, introduced me to these wonderfully nice people from Abu Dhabi, and they flew in, and I showed them all the real estate and everything that we have.

他们非常喜欢。

They loved it.

我回到白板前，重新设计了一下结构——我记得当时有Lord and Taylor控股公司、Lord and Taylor地产公司、Lord and Taylor资产公司。

And I went back to the whiteboard, created a new so I remember I had Lord and Taylor HoldCo, Lord and Taylor Real Estate, Lord and Taylor PropCo.

我新设了一个Hudson's Bay贸易公司，作为母公司，持有Lord and Taylor控股公司和Hudson's Bay控股公司。

I now created Hudson's Bay Trading Company on top that would own the Lord and Taylor Holding Company and the Hudson's Bay Holding Company.

我把Hudson's Bay贸易公司49%的股份，以五亿美元卖给了那些来自阿布扎比的合作伙伴，这家公司将拥有所有这些资产。

And I sold the nice folks from Abu Dhabi for $500,000,000, 49% of the Hudson's Bay Trading Company, the holding company that would own all of it.

所以，资金流入五亿美元。

So inflows, $500,000,000.

我用这笔钱还清了债务。

I pay down my debt.

然后我买下了Hudson's Bay公司。

I buy Hudson's Bay Company.

之后我给父亲打了电话，说：爸，我们当初投了三千万，现在占了一半的股份。

But now I call up my father, and I say, well, dad, you know, we put $35,000,000 in, and we own half of this thing.

这些来自阿布扎比的合作伙伴投了五亿美元。

And these nice people from Abu Dhabi put in 500,000,000.

所以我们的三千五百万，现在值五亿美元了。

So I guess our 35,000,000 is now worth 500,000,000.

再加百分之五十。

Plus 50%.

如果公司一半值五亿，那我们这一半也值五亿了。

Well, if half the company was worth 50% 500,000,000, our half was now worth 500,000,000.

明白了。

Okay.

我父亲说，他人特别好，我们关系也很融洽，但当时气氛有点紧张。

So my father says and my father was wonderful, we had a great relationship, but it was a little angsty.

那是2008年。

It was 2008.

对。

Mhmm.

他说，你只是找到个傻子愿意买下这家快完蛋的百货公司一半股份，不代表咱们这一半就值五亿美元——顺便说一句，他说得没错。

He's like, just because you found someone stupid enough to buy half of this department store business that is heading for God knows where doesn't mean that our half is worth $500,000,000, which is, by the way, true.

你永远没法确定，因为一个人看到了某样东西，就以为那是真相。

You never know, just because some one person sees one thing.

总之，长话短说，我们把交易谈成了。

Anyway, so long story short, we close.

就在那之后，金融危机爆发了，但那时候我已经把这两家公司合并了。

The the great financial crisis hits, but I had merged these two companies together.

它们简直一团糟。

They were so screwed up.

我以前管着一家四十人的房地产公司，干得挺不错。

So I had run this real estate company with 40 employees, and we were great.

我们每年能建一百万平方英尺的购物中心。

We were building a million square feet a year of of shopping centers.

现在我手下有七万五千名员工。

I now had 75,000 employees.

我当时是这个公司的董事长兼负责人。

I was the chairman and the governor of this thing.

我是个做房地产的，不是搞运营的。

I'm a real estate guy, not an operating company guy.

我有个得力助手叫唐·沃特罗斯，他是首席运营官。

I had a great guy by the name of Don Watros, who was chief operating officer.

他在那年十月到十二月之间，砍掉了五亿美元的开支，基本上救了这家公司。

He cut $500,000,000 of expenses out of the business between October and December of that year and and basically saved the enterprise.

我们解雇了前一百名高管里的九十七人。

We fired 97 of the top 100 executives.

人们总问，你怎么改变一家公司的文化？

People say, oh, how do you change the culture of a company?

很简单，把所有人全换掉。

Well, you fire everybody.

这确实是种办法。

That's one way to do it.

然后我们把公司拆成了几块，结果它不仅活了下来，还发展得不错。

And and we broke the company up into pieces, and it survived and did fine and grew.

不到两年后，沃尔玛联系我们，说想买我们旗下叫Zellers的业务，那相当于加拿大的凯马特，是我们加拿大业务里最没价值的一块。

And then a little less than two years later, Walmart contacted us and said they wanted to buy a division we had called Zellers, which was like the Kmart of Canada, which was kind of a crappy least valuable of the companies and things that we had in Canada.

他们来见我的时候说，理查德，我们听说塔吉特对收购Zellers感兴趣，而你们在加拿大有这么多门店。

And they came to visit me, and they said, Richard, we've heard that Target was interested in buying Zellers, and we have all these stores in Canada.

我说，你们要是真想买，那就出价吧。

I said, well, if you wanna pay for it, you can you can buy it.

当然可以。

Sure.

我们愿意卖。

We'll sell it.

他们问，那你们打算卖多少钱？

And they said, well, how much do you wanna sell it for?

我说，我们根本没把它当一个运营中的企业来看。

I said, well, we don't look at it as an operating company.

我们看这400个租赁点，每个每平方英尺都低于市价五美元。

We look at it as 400 leaseholds that are $5 a foot under value.

如果你把这差价按6%的资本化率算，我们愿意卖给你22亿美元。

And if you take the dollars under value and put a 6% cap on it, we'd like to sell it to you for $2,200,000,000.

当然，两年前我们刚花12亿美元把整个业务买下来，你知道的。

Of course, we just bought the entire business for 1,200,000,000, you know, two years before that.

他们说：‘理查德，这价格有点高了吧。’

So they said, oh, that sounds a little steep, Richard.

我说：‘要是塔吉特进来抢走50亿美元的生意，那才叫惨呢。’

I said, it's gonna be terrible if Target comes in and takes $5,000,000,000 of business.

于是我跟他说：‘事情会这么发展。’

So I said to him, this is what's gonna happen.

别找中介。

No brokers.

我会直接跟塔吉特的CEO谈，也会直接跟沃尔玛的CEO谈。

CEO of I'm gonna speak directly to Target, and I'm gonna speak directly to Walmart.

谁先签了购买协议，而且不能反悔，这生意就归谁。

Whoever signs a purchase agreement first with no outs can have it.

我会告诉你们每个人，对方出价多少。

And I'm gonna tell each of you what the other guy is bidding.

他们说，好吧，大概就这样吧。

They're like, okay, I guess.

你懂的。

You know?

我们还有别的选择吗？

Do we have a choice?

没有。

No.

于是他们走了。

So they left.

他们原本是来我办公室的。

They had come to my office.

我拿起电话，然后干嘛呢？

I pick up the phone, and what do I do?

我打了电话给塔吉特，因为那时候我们根本没在联系。

I call Target because I wasn't talking to Target at that time.

我对塔吉特说，这是你们最后的机会了，要是还想进加拿大市场，这批货就是最后一批了。

And I said to Target, I said, this is your last chance if you ever wanna come to Canada because this is the last set of boxes available.

他们其实已经看过了。

And they had looked at it.

这些年我们一直有在谈，但最近根本没沟通。

We had talked about it over the years, but we weren't talking.

于是我的联系人，负责房地产的主管，直接跟CEO说了。

So my contact, the head of real estate, spoke to the CEO.

他说，我们有兴趣。

He said, we're interested.

来我们这儿看看吧。

Come and visit us.

于是我飞到了明尼苏达，他们说：我们非常感兴趣。

So I flew up to Minnesota and they said, well, we're very interested.

我们愿意花五亿美元买下你最好的五十家店。

We'll take your best 50 stores for $500,000,000.

我跟他们说，这条件我没法接受，我还有别的选择。

I said, that doesn't work for me, and I got other people.

你们要是真不想来加拿大，也没关系，我就直接飞回去了。

And if you don't wanna come to Canada, no worries, and I flew home.

后来，我收到了沃尔玛的第一份报价。

So then I got my first bid from Walmart.

他们愿意花八亿美元买下八十到九十家店。

They would take 80 stores or 90 stores for 800,000,000.

我说，这条件还是不行。

And I said, that doesn't work.

接着，塔吉特把报价提高到了十亿美元，沃尔玛也跟着加到了十亿零两万美元。

Then Target came up to a billion dollars, and then Walmart came up to 1,000,000,002.

然后我就和Target来回拉扯，反复沟通。

And then I went back to Target back and forth, back and forth.

顺便说一句，我本来是和Walmart谈的，所以真没想到这事儿拖了这么久。

By the way, I was the Walmart guy, so I was kinda shocked that I hadn't you know, that it was going this long.

最后Target打来电话，说愿意全盘接手，出价18.5亿美元。

Finally, I get a call from Target saying, we'll take all of it for $1,850,000,000.

交割时付9亿，剩下的90天后结清。

We'll give you 900,000,000 at closing and the balance ninety days later.

我说，行，那就这么定了。

So I said, okay.

于是我飞回明尼苏达。

So I flew up to Minnesota.

这时候Walmart那边其实已经基本不吭声了。

By the way, Walmart at this point had kinda like just stopped.

他们大概不信我真能从Target拿到这么多钱，我跟他们说：8.5亿美金，你们自己看着办吧。

And, you know, I don't think they believed me that I had really gotten that much money from Target because I told them, billion $8.50, it's your call.

是的。

Yeah.

于是我带着我的小团队，还有塔吉特公司整个管理团队和25名律师，一起飞到明尼苏达，在会议室里整整待了四天半。

And so I fly up to Minnesota with my small little team and the entire management team of the Target Corporation and 25 lawyers all in conference rooms, and we spent four and a half days.

那是人力资源会议室，物流会议室，我们逐条谈判，最终敲定了收购协议。

This was the HR Conference Room, the Logistics Conference Room, and we went and negotiated a purchase agreement.

想象一下，把这么大一个业务部门卖给塔吉特。

Imagine selling a division, you know, this large to Target.

到了周五早上，我们终于把收购协议全部搞定。

And by the by Friday morning, we had a completed purchase agreement.

塔吉特的董事会定在周一召开，如果获批，交割原计划安排在周二。

The Target board meeting was on Monday, and the closing would have been on Tuesday, was was scheduled for Tuesday if the board approves.

我搭飞机返回，回到办公室。

I get on a plane, fly back, go to my office.

周五早上五点，我一个人坐在办公室里。

I'm sitting in my office Friday at 05:00.

我的助理进来告诉我，沃尔玛的首席执行官和沃尔玛国际的首席执行官道格·麦克米伦在电话里。

My assistant comes in, and she says, the CEO of Walmart and the CEO of Walmart International, Doug McMillan, is on the phone.

他们想跟你聊聊。

They wanna talk to you.

我当时心想，天啊，这真是最糟糕的噩梦。

I'm like, oh, this is, you know, your worst nightmare.

但他们态度非常客气。

So they were very gracious.

他们其实都清楚对方在做什么。

They got they all knew what each other were doing.

顺便说一句，他们彼此公司里都安插了眼线之类的。

By the way, they all have spies at each other's offices or whatever.

于是他们说，理查德，我们真的非常抱歉。

So they said, Richard, we are so sorry.

我们搞砸了。

We screwed up.

我们必须把这家公司买下来。

We have to own that company.

你不能把这家业务卖给塔吉特。

You cannot sell that business to Target.

我当时就想，这事儿怪我们自己。

I'm like, and it's our fault.

我们愿意再付你们一亿美元。

We are prepared to pay you another $100,000,000.

这个周末我就派团队去你们办公室，保证周日晚上就把合同签好。

I will send a team to your office this weekend and have it done and signed by Sunday night.

所以我跟他们说，各位，我真的很心痛，因为我是个沃尔玛人。

So I said, guys, I'm heartbroken because I'm a Walmart guy.

我跟你们做了这么多生意。

I did all this business with you.

我认识山姆·沃尔顿和罗布·沃尔顿，一直跟你们关系很好，可我却跟塔吉特握了手。

I had known Sam Walton and Rob Walton, and and I have this great relationship, but I shook hands with Target.

幸好他们没说再给我两亿。

Thank god they didn't say they would pay me 200,000,000 more.

但为了这一个亿，我的承诺依然算数。

But for a $100,000,000, my word was still good.

我当时说，我要跟Target把这事了结了。

And I said, I'm gonna finish with Target.

如果Target董事会最终否决了这笔交易，我会再登门道歉，但我不能食言。

If for some reason the board of directors of Target Corporation turns me down votes it down, I'll be back to you hat in hand, but I can't I can't back out of the deal.

他们说，理查德，我们尊重你。

And they said, we respect you, Richard.

我们明白。

We understand.

然后咔哒两声，电话挂了。

And click click the phone.

到了周一，Target那边终于批准了这笔交易。

Monday, on needles, Target approves the deal.

第二天，9亿美元打进了账户，接着又来了9亿美元。

The next day, $900,000,000 in cash gets wired in, and then another 900,000,000.

来自阿布扎比的那些人，2010年拿回了他们5亿美元的本金，外加2.5亿美元的收益。

The nice folks from Abu Dhabi got their $500,000,000 back plus another 250,000,000 during 2010.

那时候，没几个人能拿回自己的钱。

There wasn't a lot of people getting their money back.

我所有的投资者都赚得盆满钵满。

All my investors got lots of money.

我父亲是世上最温柔、最聪明的人，他直到去世那天都带着笑容。他从不对我发火，从不提高嗓门，也从没用怀疑的眼神看过我——这就是他的故事。

My father, who was the loveliest, smartest guy ever, had a smile on his face till the day he he never fussed with me, never raised his voice, never looked at me sideways till the day he and so that was that story.

这笔交易你总共赚了多少钱？

How much money did you make on that deal in total?

这事儿挺复杂的，因为这些交易里，你得把钱再投回门店，翻新店铺。

It's complicated, all of these deals, because, you know, you reinvest back in the stores and you renovate stores.

但从2006年到今年一月，Sachs和Niemann破产之前，我们来回买卖、反复操作，做了好几轮交易，最后结果还不错。

But basically, from 2006 to this January when Sachs and Niemann's went bankrupt, We bought and sold and bought and sold and did a whole series of transactions, and we did fine.

如果Sachs和Niemann's没破产，我们本可以赚得更多。

We would have done better if Sachs and Niemann's hadn't gone bankrupt.

那确实是个不错的决定，不过我们当时也已经做得不错了。

That would have been a good move, but we did just fine.

我为这个播客做了一些调研，就随便搜了一下。

So in doing some research for this podcast, I just Googled it.

我想，好吧。

I'm like, okay.

理查德·贝克的净资产是多少。

Richard Baker, net worth.

谷歌说在五千万到一亿美元之间。

Google says 5 to $10,000,000.

ChatGPT说，保守估计有七亿五千万美元。

Chat GPT says conservative estimate, $750,000,000.

还有其他说法，说是十二亿美元。

And then you have other things that are saying, like, $1,200,000,000.

这差距怎么解释？

Explain this discrepancy.

我觉得我们不该去信那些谷歌和类似网站上对人净资产的估算。

I guess we shouldn't be looking at those those Google and those places for people's network.

这些数据简直错得离谱。

They seem to be wildly incorrect.

这让我想起一部电影，《战争之犬》，你要是看过的话。

To me, it seems a little bit reminiscent of, like, War Dogs, if you've ever seen that.

他们卖政府合同，结果跑到一个房间里去竞标一些根本不可能接手的项目，对面却是二十多个律师和高管，可他们居然把单子拿下了。

How they're like selling government contracts, they end up in this room placing a bid on something that they have like no business doing, but they're up against a team of probably 20 lawyers and executives, and yet they end up closing this deal.

这跟你当时做的事有点像。

That kinda reminds me a little bit of what you were doing.

你可是直接走进了以前连想都不敢想的场合，谈着完全不可思议的交易。

I mean, you were like, stepping foot into places that you had never thought you would be in doing deals that were completely unimaginable.

你觉得这算不算‘装得像，就能真成功’的例子？

Do you think that there's some credit to, like, fake it till you make it?

我不是说你在装样子，但你确实是直接跳进了深水区。

Not saying you were faking it, but, like, you were kind of at the deep end.

我想说的是，这一点对所有在听的人也适用。

I I would say this and how this translates to all the folks that are listening.

你必须对自己真正理解的东西有坚定的信念。

You have to have conviction in what it is that you understand.

我一辈子都在做零售地产，所以我清楚那些运营公司里地产的真实价值。

I had spent my entire life in retail real estate, so I understood the value of the real estate inside of those operating companies.

那些经营公司的人根本不了解地产，很多人也完全看不出它的价值。

The people that ran those operate operating companies didn't understand the real estate, and a lot of people a lot of other people didn't understand the value.

正因为我清楚这些地产在公司里的实际价值，才能果断出手收购并顺利融资。

And I was able with great clarity and surety to buy those companies and finance those transactions because I understood what the real estate was worth inside those companies.

现在世界变了，市场有涨有跌，但我们2013年买下萨克斯时花了26亿美元。

Now the world's changed and markets go up, markets go down, but we bought Sacks in 2013 for $2,600,000,000.

六个月后，我们用第五大道那栋楼做抵押融资，第三方评估机构给它的估值是36.5亿美元。

Six months later, we got a financing against the 5th Avenue building, and the third party lender did an appraisal on the building of 3,650,000,000.

我们通过公开收购整个公司六个月后，当时世界首富卡洛斯·斯利姆成了最大股东，他起诉高盛，质问为什么高盛卖给他们这家公司时，单是那栋楼的价值就比整个公司售价高出十亿美元。

Six months after we bought the entire company in a public process, the largest shareholder was Carlos Slim, at the time, the richest man in the world, and he sued Goldman Sachs for seven years that why did Goldman Sachs sell us the business when the one building was worth $1,000,000,000 more than what they sold the whole company for.

你现在都持有哪些资产？

What do you currently own?

我经常在各种不同资产之间进出。

I'm in and out of all kinds of different assets.

去年我利用空闲时间创办了一家叫ROIC的房地产公司，建了一个拥有整整一千万平方英尺西海岸地产的投资组合，去年已经以四十亿美元卖给了黑石。

So last year, I on my my spare time, I created a another real estate company called ROIC where we built a portfolio of 10,000,000 square another 10,000,000 square feet of West Coast real estate, and I sold that to Blackstone last year for $4,000,000,000.

这笔交易已经完成了。

So that's sold.

我已经退出了萨克斯和尼曼·马库斯。

I'm out of Saks and Neiman's.

目前我持有整整一千万平方英尺的东海岸高端沃尔玛主力购物中心，这个配置很不错。

Right now, I own a I own 10,000,000 square feet of super high quality East Coast Walmart anchored shopping centers, which is great.

我还经营一家私募股权公司，投资组合多样，也在探索一些新的投资机会，尝试新东西。

And I have a private equity business with a variety of different investments, and I'm playing around with new investments and doing new things.

现在很多人都被教育要避开债务，但你却主动拥抱它。

Now a lot of people are taught to avoid debt, but you really embrace it.

你怎么界定明智举债和盲目负债之间的界限？

Where do you define the line between taking on smart debt and just being dumb with it?

我们把明智的债务叫做无追索权债务。

Let's call smart debt nonrecourse debt.

我们都应该尽可能多地争取无追索权债务。

So we should all take as much nonrecourse debt as we can get our hands on.

如果你不太清楚，无追索权债务的意思是，债务只针对你的有限责任公司。

For folks who don't understand, nonrecourse debt is debt that's only recourse to your LLC.

如果因为某种原因，房产出了问题，还不上利息或本金，银行只能收回这一处房产。

So if the for some reason, the property goes bad and doesn't pay the interest, it doesn't pay the amortization, all the bank can do is take back that one property.

我的经营模式就是，每个项目都尽量少投自有资金，尽可能多地使用无追索权贷款。

So my business model is to put as little equity in every deal as I can and to take as much nonrecourse debt as possible.

如果你相信未来会经历高通胀，那就该尽可能多地用无追索权贷款买房地产，这样你就能赚大钱。

If you believe in a world that's gonna have a lot of inflation, you want to buy as much real estate as possible with as much non recourse debt as possible, and you're gonna make a lot of money.

你觉得未来十年经济会走向哪里？

Where do you see the economy heading over the next ten years?

你认为最大的机会在哪里？

And where do you see the biggest opportunities?

首先，我觉得企业家精神即将迎来一场革命。

First of all, I I think we're on the brink of a revolution of entrepreneur activity.

我认为美国大企业将会解体。

I I think that corporate America is gonna deconstruct.

过去十年我们已经看到了一些苗头，但接下来会加速得多，很多人会被挤出职场。

We've already begin to see it in the last ten years, but it's gonna go dramatically faster, and a lot of people are gonna get pushed out to the curb.

但这些人并不是就此放弃。

And I think those people aren't just giving up.

他们会转而成为创业者，很多人会投身房地产，赚到和以前在大公司差不多甚至更多的钱。

Those people are gonna become entrepreneurs, many of them real estate entrepreneurs, and they're gonna replicate the money that they were making in corporate America or do better.

所以我觉得这对经济来说是好事。

And so I think that that's gonna be good for the economy.

所以我对美国的前景非常乐观，认为一定会迎来增长。

So I'm really bullish in The United States that there's gonna be growth.

这种增长会带来税收，以及构建一个健康社会所需的各种基础条件。

That's gonna create tax revenue and all the things that we need to have a good society and and and make sense here.

顺便说一句，我不觉得欧洲和亚洲某些地区会出现同样的情况，因为欧洲有保护员工的法律，要求企业在裁员时提供非常长的补偿期。

By the way, I don't believe that's gonna happen in Europe and in certain places in Asia because in Europe, they have laws that protect employees and require companies to give very long, you know, periods of coverage when they exit people.

而且他们的社会保障体系也很完善。

And they also have a big safety net.

所以我认为，那里的人们不会像在美国这样，有强烈的动力去创业。

So I don't think there'll be the same motivation for people to become entrepreneurs like they will be here in The United States.

有意思的是，投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆最近在《CEO日记》里表示，他并不看好美国经济，反而认为新兴市场和国际市场会表现更好，而美国经济可能会崩盘。

Now what's really interesting about that is the investor Jeremy Grantham just went on diary of a CEO and said that he's actually not bullish for The US economy and says that emerging markets and international markets will outperform, and The US economy will crash.

你怎么看这个说法？

What are your thoughts

对此你有什么看法？

about that?

我完全不同意这个观点。

Totally disagree with that.

在美国投资相比国际投资，风险更低，回报却好得多。

And the risk reward of investing in The United States versus international, So much safer, much better returns for the risk that you're taking to invest in The United States.

我觉得关键在于你得清楚自己在做什么，得认真思考，保持明智。

I think the answer is really you gotta know what you're doing, and you gotta be thoughtful and smart.

现在当我看看今天我能投资的所有领域，嗯，

And now when I look at the landscape of all the things that I could invest in today Mhmm.

无论是证券、人工智能还是这些新兴方向，我反而对咱们刚才说的那些不太引人注目的房地产机会特别感兴趣，也更有动力去投钱。

Securities and AI and all of these things, I'm actually very excited and motivated to invest my money in these below the radar real estate opportunities that we're talking about.

比如主街上的零售店、独立的小型购物中心、多户住宅。

You know, main street retail, little unanchored strip shopping centers, multifamily.

但我喜欢投资时有个明确的主题或策略。

But I like it to be to have a theme or a play, if you will.

所以目前我特别看好品牌大学宿舍，也就是面向大学生的公寓住房。

So right now, I'm very excited about branded university, you know, college housing, multifamily college housing.

这个方向我很感兴趣。

I like that as a play.

我现在就盯着这个方向。

I'm focused on that.

杰里米·格兰瑟姆，我知道你现在正在YouTube Premium上听这个节目，因为你不可能不买YouTube Premium。

Jeremy Grantham, I know you're listening to this right now on YouTube Premium because there's no way you don't pay for YouTube Premium.

作为会员。

As a member.

作为《冰咖啡时光》的会员，每个月花几块钱，来参加《冰咖啡时光》播客，跟理查德·贝克辩论一下吧。

Come on, as a member of the Iced Coffee Hour as well, paying a few bucks a month, come on the Iced Coffee Hour podcast to debate Richard Baker.

那可就太棒了，简直太棒了。

That would be Oh, that would be Really, really, really incredible.

我随时准备参与。

I'm there for it.

来吧，放马过来。

Bring it on.

如果你看好大学宿舍这块，那说明你对整个教育行业都挺看好的。

If you're bullish on university housing, I that would suggest that you're bullish on just broader education in general.

嗯，我对美国排名前十的大学比较看好。

Well, I I I'm bullish on the top 10 universities in The United

前十的大学。

States.

就是那前十名的大学。

The top 10 universities.

所以可能进不了前二十，或者勉强排进前二十。

So I wouldn't so or maybe top 20.

顺便说一句，我觉得其他高校的发展路径会各不相同。

So by the way, I think the other universities will play out in different ways.

会出现合并、整合等各种情况。

There'll be consolidation and mergers and all kinds of things.

不过眼下，我正在大力投资康奈尔大学。

But for a moment, I'm investing heavily at Cornell University.

康奈尔大学的研究生项目非常出色，每年的申请人数都在增长，他们也在不断扩建新设施和加强研究。

Cornell University has incredible graduate program, and they're growing their applicants every year, and they're building new facilities and research.

我对投资这样的地方没有任何担忧。

I don't have any worries about investing in a

你怎么可能会看错呢？

place like that.

你对未来十年美国经济走势的判断，怎么可能出错呢？

How could you be wrong about your thesis of The United States economy over the next ten years?

哦，对了，你知道的，有市长曼达尼。

Oh, well, there's lots of, you know, you know, mayor Mamdani.

曼达尼。

Mamdani.

曼达尼。

Mamdani.

曼达尼市长可能会成为你的下一任总统。

Mayor Mamdani could become your next president.

那可帮不上忙。

That wouldn't be helpful.

但说实话，没人真知道未来会怎样，可我就天天跟经济打交道，感觉特别强劲。

But, I mean, none of us know really what's gonna happen in the future, but to me, I'm in the economy on a, you know, everyday basis, and it feels very strong.

关于劳动力、人工智能、失业这些担忧，可这国家还是缺人手。

And all the concerns about labor, you know, AI, people losing their jobs, still not enough labor in this country.

所以我觉得大家还是有工作、有收入的。

And so I think people will have jobs and have incomes.

我昨晚住了一家酒店。

You know, I stayed at a hotel last night.

办理入住都快挤不动了。

You could barely check-in.

七月的拉斯维加斯，人多得不得了。

There were so many people in Las Vegas in July.

马曼尼的影响体现在哪里呢？

What's the impact that Mamdani's had

在纽约？

in New York?

所以，我早就说过这事，现在看来真要发生了。

So, you know, I've been calling it for a while, and it looks like it's happening.

特朗普的那套做法把整个方向推得越来越右。

So the Trump story has pushed everything way to the right.

所以，显然，下次选举，或者六七年之后，真正的风险是可能会彻底转向左派。

So, obviously, the risk in the next election or in seven years from now or six years, whatever it is, the risk really is it it could go way left.

说实话，我并不喜欢极端右派，也不喜欢极端左派。

And that would be I'm not a fan of way right, honestly, and I'm not a fan of way left.

这在我们国家真是挺遗憾的。

It's very unfortunate in this country.

我们根本没有中间力量，而且我觉得，要是真推行纽约市市长那些政策，对经济会是场灾难。

We don't have any middle movement, but I think it would be I think it would be terrible for our economy to have these sort of policies that our mayor in New York City has been talking about.

他上任以来，你亲眼看到哪些实际影响？

What are the real world implications that you have seen since he's taken office?

你知道吗，那个针对空置第二套住房的税，可到现在我也没见哪个朋友卖了他们的第二套房。在美国，像马斯克这样身家上万亿的人，却不回馈社会，这根本行不通。

You know, this tax on the pied a terre, you know, the second apartments But and all meanwhile, I haven't seen any of my friends selling their second apartments, and, you know, it's not tenable in The United States for people like Elon Musk to be a trillionaire and not give back to society.

别再说他是天才、我们喜欢他、他为经济做了贡献这些话了。

Forget he's a genius and we love him and he's giving back because he's so clever and so good for the economy.

可他去年到底捐了多少钱给慈善机构？

But how much money did he give to charity last year?

他对那些没有资源的人又做了什么？

And what is he doing for people who don't have resources?

他正在犯一个严重的错误。

And he's making a terrible mistake.

贝佐斯也是，还有那一帮人，全都在犯同样的错。

So is Bezos and so is a lot of that gang.

他们捐给真正需要帮助的人的钱，远远不够。

They're not giving away nearly enough money to the people who need it.

顺便说一句，把钱投在火箭飞船或者自己的兴趣项目上，不算数。

By the way, giving money or investing money in rocket ships and their passion projects don't count.

所以在这个国家，如果富人花太多钱却不回馈社会，风险是很大的。

So in this country, there's a lot of risk that if the rich spend too much money and don't give back.

想想埃隆·马斯克本可以为旧金山或纽约的住房危机做些什么。

I mean, just think what Elon Musk could do for the housing crisis in San Francisco or the housing crisis in New York.

他完全可以拿出两千亿美元，专门用于旧金山和纽约的低收入住房建设。

I mean, he could allocate $200,000,000,000 to San Francisco and New York for low income housing.

你想想，这笔钱能给这些城市、给那些没资源的人带来多大的改变。

Think what that could do for for those cities and for people who don't have resources.

我觉得这种不满情绪

And I think the resentment

但问题是，这真的只是钱不够吗？

Is it a money problem, though?

住房问题看起来并不完全是钱的问题。

It doesn't seem like the housing problem is a money issue.

更像是政策出了问题，真正该负责的是那些掌权的人，而不是一味地砸钱。

It seems like more of a policy issue, and the people in charge are maybe more to blame than throwing money at it.

方方面面都有关。

It's everything.

相信我，几百亿美元肯定能帮上忙，这确实是个政策问题，而且很容易解决。

Believe me, a couple $100,000,000,000 would certainly help, and it is certainly a policy problem, easily fixable.

他们得拿出大片土地，批准高密度住宅建设，还得真把房子建起来。

They have to take large chunks of land and approve very dense housing, and they gotta build it.

还得掏钱来建。

They gotta pay for it.

但从实际操作上讲，这怎么做到呢？

Logistically, how is that even possible though?

大家总说应该对富人多征税，我也没说完全同意或反对，但他们就是一直强调这点。

Everyone always says we need to tax the rich more, that and I'm not necessarily saying I disagree nor agree, but they're saying that we need to tax the rich more.

还说富人该多捐钱给慈善，可实际上，埃隆的摩根大通账户里到底有多少钱？

They need to give away more money to charity, when in actuality, how much money does Elon have sitting in his JPMorgan checking account?

我们其实并不清楚

Like, we don't necessarily How