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市场对我们有利，因为我们能看到世界正在发生的变化，而华尔街那些人却看不到。
The market is rigged in our advantage because we can see the world changing in a way that people that work on Wall Street just can't.
今天到目前为止，已经有70个创纪录的收盘新高。
70 record closing highs so far for the day.
这跟是不是特别聪明没关系。
It's not about being really smart.
关键是用一种和市场完全不同的方式去思考。自从选举以来，市场价值已经增加了近三万亿美元。
It's about being smart in a totally different way than The market has gained almost $3,000,000,000,000 in value since the election.
快速发生的大变革，往往是投资者最大的机会，但这种机会并不常有。
Big changes that are happening quickly are the biggest opportunities for investors, but they don't happen very often.
偶尔会出现一次改变一生的机会，而对我来说，现在就是这个时刻。
And occasionally, there's one that comes around once in a lifetime, and this is it for me.
这是我一生中最重要的交易。
This is the biggest trade of my life.
我坚信，人工智能的崛起将彻底重塑我们的世界，改变我们的经济，其影响之大，前所未有。
I firmly believe that the embodiment of artificial intelligence is gonna radically rebuild our world and change our economy unlike we've ever seen in our lifetime.
想想看，如果能无限使用人力劳动，那会是什么样子？
Think about what it's like to have access to infinite physical labor.
我们会造出什么东西？
What would we build?
这会怎样改变我们的世界？
How would that change our world?
成为投资者群体的一员，比什么都重要。
There is nothing more important than being part of the investor class.
这根本不是个问题。
It's not a question.
你最好马上开始投资。
You better darn start investing right now.
赶紧去开个Robinhood账户，或者找别的渠道也行。
You better go get a Robinhood account or get whatever.
对吧？
Right?
你就先行动起来吧。
Just start doing it.
我跟你保证。
I promise you.
克里斯，非常感谢你来参加冰咖啡时间。
Chris, thank you so much for coming on the iced coffee hour.
真的非常感谢。
Really appreciate it.
是的。
Yeah.
早就想来聊聊了。
Been wanting to do it for a while.
第一个问题，为什么这么多投资者总是亏钱？
So question number one, why do so many investors lose money?
也许从疫情之后，这一代新投资者都沉迷于错失恐惧症，热衷于那些奇怪的加密货币模因币和模因股，还有各种高风险的期权类新资产。
Maybe since the pandemic, this new generation of investors that are all about FOMO ing and weird crypto meme coins and meme stocks and you have like these new asset classes that are super risky options.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得，如果把那些东西从投资范围里去掉，其实很难亏钱。
So like I think if you remove that from the, like, from the investment class, I think if you remove those things, it's very hard to lose money.
我们这边看到的情况是，很多人在做这种投机交易。
I guess what we're seeing on our end is a lot of people making these speculative trades.
嗯，明白了。
Okay.
他们因为某样东西被炒得火热就冲进去买。
Where they're going in and buying something because it's hyped up.
他们在高点买入，然后价格就跌了。
They're buying at the peak and then it drops.
你就会想，糟了，买错了。
You're like, oh crap, I got the wrong one.
赶紧卖了。
Sell.
认赔出局。
Lock in a loss.
接着看下一个。
Move on to the next one.
可能是年纪很轻，或者刚接触投资不久。
Probably either one really young or or relatively new to investing.
明白吧？
Okay?
他们会经历这么一段时期，这会是他们人生中一段代价高昂的短暂时光，几个月到几年不等。
They're gonna go through that period and it's going to be a costly short period of their life, months to a few years.
他们会从中吸取教训。
They're gonna learn those lessons.
有时候，你读再多书、听我们讲该避免什么，都不如自己亲身经历一次。
Sometimes like you can read all the books and you could listen to us talking about what not to do, but you just have to go through it yourself.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得每个投资者都得经历一段犯重大错误的时期，因为大家都想快速赚钱。
And I think every investor has to go through a period of making critical mistakes because everyone wants fast money.
我明白。
I get that.
这就是对你问题的回答。
That's the answer to your question.
他们都在追逐快钱。
They're chasing fast money.
你现在的投资组合是什么样子？
What does your portfolio look like today?
老兄，我今天的投资组合简直太疯狂了，但这不正常。
Dude, my portfolio is wild today, but it's not normal.
我现在所处的阶段并不寻常。
This is not a normal period for me.
当然。
Sure.
你稍微关注一下我，应该也清楚。
And you know, you follow me a little bit.
所以你知道，差不多每十年就会出现一次世代性的机会。
So you know that, you know, every decade or so there's like a generational opportunity.
如果变化发生得特别快，那机会就更大。
If the change is happening really quickly, then there's even bigger opportunity.
变化越剧烈、越迅速，对投资者来说机会就越大，但这种机会并不常有。
So big changes that are happening quickly are the biggest opportunities for investors, but they don't happen very often.
你想想九十年代末，我刚大学毕业那会儿，互联网泡沫，那就是其中一个时刻，对吧？
So you go back late nineties after I graduated college, you know, the dot com boom, that was one of those times, right?
智能手机的诞生，那也是一个时刻；云计算，又是另一个时刻。
And the birth of the smartphone, that was one of those times, you know, cloud computing, another one of those times.
说实话，我刚过完五十岁生日，才几个月前，我真没想到这辈子能见到这么大的变化，而且还是在这么短的时间内，整个人类社会都在飞速改变。
And certainly there's no, you know, I just turned 50 guys like, like a couple months ago and I never thought I would see in my lifetime this much change that is this big, like as humanity this quickly.
这简直太不可思议了。
It's freaking wild to me.
实际上，疫情爆发那会儿是我最忙的一年，大家都知道，因为那是我们这一代人见过的规模最大、影响最深的变革。
Actually, during the pandemic when COVID hit, that was my biggest year, you know, everyone knows that because it was the biggest change that had ever happened to our civilization and during our lifetimes, right?
当全世界每个人都待在家里不出门时，消费习惯、花钱方式、关注的重点全都变了，这直接重塑了全球每一家公司的盈利模式。
When you take every human on earth and they start not leaving their home, that changes the things that they buy, changes the things that they do with their money, the things that they care about, which changes the profits for every company on earth, right?
这可是个千载难逢的赚钱机会。
And that was a huge opportunity to monetize.
我真没想到这辈子还能再遇到一次这样的机会。
I didn't think I'd ever see that again.
现在这个阶段更不得了，人工智能时代、机器人时代来了。
This is bigger, you know, the age of artificial intelligence, the age of robots.
这简直太不可思议了。
This is freaking wild.
所以你是想说，你的投资组合主要押注在你认为十年一遇的机会上？
So is this a way to say that your portfolio is skewed heavily towards what you believe is a once in a decade opportunity?
现在这已经不是十年一遇了，可能是一生一次了。
Yeah, maybe once in a lifetime at this point.
没错。
Yeah.
所以我真的是全力以赴了，说实话，ChatGPT一出来我就全押进去了。
And so like, I'm really putting myself out there like, dude, I went all in when, when ChatGPT first came out.
你还记得你第一次用ChatGPT是什么时候吗？
Do you remember, do you remember the first time you got on ChatGPT?
那是多久以前？两年前？还是一年前？差不多吧。
When was that, two years ago, a year ago, give or take?
我第一次用ChatGPT的时候，那种感觉让我想起我第一次拿到iPhone的时候。
Got on ChatGPT and I do this and I remember this because I remember the first time I held an iPhone in my hand.
对。
Yeah.
我清楚记得自己当时在哪儿，而且那手机还不是我的。
I remember exactly where I was and it wasn't mine.
当时在一场泳池派对上，大家传着玩，正好是iPhone刚发布那周。我拿在手里玩了五分钟，心里就一个念头：这东西不一般，真不一样。
They were passing it around, at a pool party and it was like the week the iPhone came out and I spent like five minutes on it and I was like, oh, this is, this is something, This is something.
那时候我下了这辈子最大胆的投资在苹果上，结果显然赚到了。
And I made the most levered investment of my life in Apple at the time and it paid off obviously.
我第一次用ChatGPT的时候，真觉得这玩意儿是实打实的革命性东西。
And when I got on chat GPT for the first time, I was like, dude, this is this is this is something real.
我永远记得那天，Dave不在城里，但Jordan在。
And I'll never forget it because Dave was out of town and Jordan wasn't.
我就跟Jordan说：我不知道怎么搞YouTube节目，那些事儿都是Dave操办的，对吧？
I was like, Jordan, I don't know how to get the YouTube show up because Dave does all that stuff, right?
我也不知道怎么把《DumbMoney》节目上线，但我能搞个Twitter Spaces，今天必须马上开一个。
So, I was like, I don't know how to get DumbMoney up and and I was like, but I can get a Twitter spaces up, we gotta get one up today.
我得赶紧找那些用过ChatGPT的人聊聊，必须马上开始评估机会了。
I just gotta talk to people who've been on this and I just got, I gotta go, I gotta start evaluating opportunities.
于是我们开了个Twitter Spaces，聊了两个半小时，直接跟用户们聊他们怎么用ChatGPT，一起头脑风暴谁会赢、谁会输。
And so we got on a Twitter spaces and I think it went on for like two and a half hours and we were just openly talking to people that were using chat GPT and just basically going through like a creative session of who, who would win from this, who would lose from this.
我当时真没底，不知道市场多久才会反应过来。
Like, I was like, I didn't know how much time we had before the rest of the market figured this out.
可能就一天、一周，或者一个月，但我必须赶紧弄清楚。
It could be a day, a week, a month, but I had to figure it out quick.
如果有几家公司的受益显而易见，而我能比别人早发现它们，那这可能会彻底改变我的人生。
Cause if there were a couple companies that were obvious beneficiaries and I could detect those companies before anyone else, that could be a life changing thing.
所以我们开了那个Twitter语音聊天，效果特别棒。
So we had that, we had that Twitter spaces and it was awesome.
有在客服中心用的人告诉我，有个干了二十年客服的哥们说，我们几周前开始用，简直是颠覆性的改变。
Like I had people that were using it, at call centers and I had a guy who's like, hey, I've been in call centers for twenty years, we started using it a couple weeks ago, game changer.
这玩意儿迟早会接管一切，整个行业都要被这些AI自动应答机器人掀翻。
It's gonna take over everything, our entire industry is going to collapse and and like get taken over by these automated kind of AI answer bots.
我们就这么头脑风暴了一通，最后我下了决定，还在《DumbMoney》里做了一期专门讲这个。
And so we just kind of brainstormed and I ultimately made a decision and I did an episode on this on DumbMoney.
我当时就想，只有英伟达，这是我唯一能确定的目标。
I was like, Nvidia, it's the only thing I could think of for sure.
我就定了，就是它了。
I just said, this is it.
我全部押在视频这块了。
I'm going all in on video.
那是在1月23号左右。
That was like January 23.
你说的全部押入是指？
Do you mean
对，就是全部押注在视频上。
by all in?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我说的全部押入，就是我的投资组合很大一部分都投在了视频领域。
So all in, like a big part of my portfolio was in on, you know, on video.
我当时没怎么加杠杆，原因是我拿不准市场在一段时间内会多快跟上这个趋势。
Now I didn't leverage that much and the reason why I didn't go in levered is because I was unsure the degree to which the rest of the market would like pick up on that over a known period of time.
我交易期权的时候，期权都有时间窗口，事情必须在那个时间段内发生。
So when I'm trading an option, options have, you know, windows and something has to happen within that one time period.
所以你可能是对的，但如果在这个短暂的时间窗口里，全世界其他人都没意识到你发现的这个点，也不认同你，那也没用。
So you could be right, but if the rest of the world doesn't kind of come to terms with that thing that you found and agree with you within that short window of time, then it doesn't really matter.
所以我后悔的是，我没敢加杠杆。
So my regret is, you know, I didn't go in levered.
我只是轻仓进了，其实也没怎么进，后悔吗？
I just went in really, I didn't went in really, regret?
你根本不了解我，兄弟。
You don't know me, man.
我跟你说过，现在我就举个例子，你要是看了我上周的账户，根本不敢相信。
I will put, like I've talked about this, like right now, like dude, if you were to see my account the last week, you wouldn't even believe it.
就是那个Can
It's just Can
你能说说吗？
you tell us?
是的。
Yeah.
说实话，过去一个月我一直在重仓特斯拉，非常重仓。
Mean, I've been heavily levered in Tesla for the last month, heavily.
简直杠杆用得离谱。
Like, ridiculously irresponsibly levered.
嗯，好吧。
What is what is but okay.
不过我很好奇，听到这话，我觉得这可能是你净资产的15%左右，也可能更多。
I'm I'm curious though, like, when I hear that, I think that could be anywhere from like 15% of your net worth to it could be like Yeah.
明白了。
Okay.
我们这是在谈一千万以上吗？
That's Are we doing like 10,000,000 plus?
我有个可以随时交易的账户。
So I have a liquid trading account.
我大部分资产都锁在私人投资里了。
Most of my assets are tied up in privates.
对吧？
Right?
我投资了超过一百家私营公司和初创企业。
So I'm invested in like over a 100 private companies and startups.
我还投资了一些实际运营的业务，而任何多余的收益，我都会捐给我的基金会。
I also have operating businesses I'm invested in, but, and then any excess returns I get, I basically donate to my foundation.
我有一个基金会，主要支持儿童癌症、自闭症、白血病和动物福利，这也是我生活中非常重要的一部分。
I have a foundation that benefits, you know, pediatric cancer, autism, leukemia and animal welfare And that's another big part of my life.
我正努力把它发展成一个十亿美元的基金会。
I'm trying to grow that into a billion dollar foundation.
每当我有一年赚得不错的时候，我都会往基金会里投入数百万美元。
So I put millions of dollars into that foundation when I have a good year.
但我的流动交易账户其实没那么大，说白了，随时可能在七位数到八位数之间波动，对吧？
But my liquid trading account like is not that, I mean from, it's a look, it could be a high 7 figure to low 8 figure account at any moment in time, Right?
所以我经常把账户里20%的资金押在期权上，如果市场不按我的预期走，第二天这些期权就可能归零。
And so I've had like 20% of the account in options that would go to zero the next day if it didn't go my way.
所以我们说的是，可能一天之内几百万美元的期权就归零了。
So we're talking about millions of dollars in options that could go to zero in one day.
一开始可能只有三十万美元的期权，但两天后就涨到两百万了，你知道的。
And start out as like 300,000 in options but then it's 2,000,000 two days later, you know.
看着账户这么飙升，真是让人难以置信。
So it's wild to see your account going up like that.
你是怎么赚到第一桶金的？
How did you make your money?
能从头说起吗？你是怎么开始做这一行的？
Could you take us back to the beginning, like how you even got started doing something Oh,
不好意思。
sorry.
对。
Yeah.
我从十三岁就开始投资了。
So I mean, I've been investing since I was like 13 years old.
那时候我就像个痴迷金融的怪小孩，那时候根本没人这么玩。
I was like a nerdy finance kid that before that existed.
现在这事儿太普遍了。
Now it's common.
对啊。
Right.
现在的小孩都这么干。
Now kids do this.
小时候就搞金融投资，现在听起来还挺酷的。
This is like cool to be a financial hustler as a kid.
八十年代可没这事儿。
Not in the eighties, man.
八九十年代我长大的时候，根本没人这么干。
Not in the eighties and not in the nineties when I grew up.
那时候就我一个这么玩的。
I was the only one.
我真的是唯一一个这样的人。
I was literally the only one.
我经常讲起以前的事，我会像现在的孩子们那样，泡在那些有共同兴趣的人的论坛里。
I, I tell stories about, I would hang out like kids now hang out in like boards of like amongst people that have like interest.
我当时最大的兴趣就是投资，早年雅虎刚有论坛的时候，就有专门聊金融的版块。
That was my like interest was investing and there were web boards like Yahoo web boards in early, early, early days of Yahoo web boards for finance.
我会发个帖子，然后整晚守着，等有人回复，发新帖子。
And you would post a message and I just sit there all night and wait for someone to respond and post another message.
你能想象吗？
Could you imagine?
我以前也这么干过，
I used to do that on
你现在想想，像股票社区或者X上，你发一条关于特斯拉的帖子，底下可能有一万条回复。我当时也会发个帖子，写上我的投资分析，然后就干等着，等着有人回应。
a You know what it's like on like stock twits now or or or X when you put a message on Tesla and there's like 10,000 I would literally post a message with like my thesis and I'd be like, here's my thesis, you know, on this stock and I just wait, wait.
第二天早上一睁眼，我做的第一件事就是打开那个论坛，一看，哎呀，居然有两个人回复了我的分析。
Next morning I would wake up and the first thing I would do is pull up that message board and go, oh man, two people commented on my thesis.
老天，这事儿太关键了。
Dude, this is huge.
那时候，作为一个散户、自主投资者，真不容易。
That's how hard it was to be like in a retail investor, self directed investor.
根本没人把我们当回事。
We didn't exist.
我从13岁就开始投资，正因如此，我才形成了现在说的‘社交套利投资’理念——2010年我写过一本书叫《笑对华尔街》，讲的就是怎么发现世界的变化，然后迅速把变化和受益或受损的公司联系起来。
But I was investing since I was 13 and that's why I developed this whole concept of what I call social arb investing, right, which is I wrote a book about it in 2010 called Laughing at Wall Street, But it's all about detecting change in the world and then connecting dots between that change and the companies that would benefit or be harmed by that change.
你要比别人更快地捕捉到变化，再迅速找到那些会从中受益的公司。
You want to surface the change quicker than others and then you want to connect the dots to the benefiting companies really quickly.
这中间还有很多别的要素。
And there, there are more elements to it than that.
你得确保，你发现的这个信息，别人还没注意到。
You have to make sure that the rest of the world doesn't already know about that thing that you discovered.
我说的‘别人’，指的是华尔街和那些散户投资者。
When I say the rest of the world, I mean Wall Street and other retail investors.
你得确认，这家公司有没有其他更重大的事情，可能比你认为会影响它的信息影响更大。
You want to make sure that there's nothing else happening at that company that could be more impactful than the piece of information that you think is going to impact that company positively or negatively.
你还要确保，你认为会影响这家公司的信息，确实是真正有分量的。
You also want to make sure that that information that you think is going to impact that company is actually meaningful.
这得是能撬动市场的关键点，对吧？
It's a needle mover, right?
所以我老讲同样的故事，因为它们特别容易引起共鸣。
So I always tell like the same stories because they're super relatable.
比如十年前，孩子们开始玩自制黏土，就在家里自己做，对吧？
Stories like, you know, ten years ago when kids started playing with DIY slime, they would make slime in their house, right?
那阵子这股风潮特别火，我很快就察觉到了，心想，这事儿不小啊，全世界的小孩都在家跟妈妈一起做黏土玩。
And that became a really popular trend and I was able to surface that trend pretty quickly when it was happening, and so I was like, oh, this is big, like every kid in the world is making slime with their moms and in their house and playing with it.
这玩意儿到底是怎么做的？
Like, how do you make this stuff?
哦，主要成分就是百得胶。
Oh, the primary ingredient is Elmer's glue.
这挺有意思的。
That's interesting.
那谁生产得宝胶水呢？
So who makes Elmer's glue?
纽威公司。
Newell brands.
哦，他们是上市公司。
Oh, they're public.
这真有意思。
Oh, that's interesting.
这是一家老牌公司，年增长率也就百分之二点五，而得宝胶水的销售额大概占他们总收入的百分之二点五。
Oh, this is a stodgy old company that grows at like two and a half percent a year and Elmer's glue is roughly two and a half percent of their revenue line.
明白了。
Okay.
那他们打算怎么扩大得宝胶水的业务呢？
So like how much are they gonna grow Elmer's glue?
埃尔默胶水四十年来都没怎么增长，但现在全世界每一家商店都卖断货了，真的是一家不剩。
Oh, Elmer's glue hasn't really grown in forty years, but now it's sold out in every store around the world, literally sold out in every single store around the world.
所以你得猜他们肯定在加大埃尔默胶水的生产。
So you have to assume they're ramping up production of Elmer's Glue.
几周后财报出来了，这种趋势其实已经持续好几个月了，销量一直在往上冲。
So earnings were, I don't know, a few weeks later and this trend had been going on for a couple months now or a few months had been ramping up.
我就买了新锐品牌的股票期权，结果公司创下了近年来最高的盈利纪录，因为埃尔默胶水的销量涨了差不多60%——听起来不多，但对一家年增长率只有2.5%的公司来说，占营收2.5%的产品突然涨了60%，那可不得了。
So I traded, Newell brands, via stock options and sure enough, the company had like its biggest earnings like ever in recent history because Elmer's glue sales were up, think like 60%, which was doesn't sound like a lot, but for a company that's only growing at 2.5% a year when you have a 2.5% revenue division that's up 60%.
这可是个大事件。
That's a big big deal.
股价涨了17%。
So the stock was up 17%.
这数字听起来不算高，但你得记住，这是一家沉闷的老公司，期权溢价之所以这么高，就是因为根本没人交易期权。
That doesn't sound like a lot, you have to remember that this was a stodgy company and the option premiums were like that big only because no one was trading options.
某个倒霉的
Some poor
那个牛市可能只是在抛售
bull was probably just selling for
买看涨期权的人以为没什么事
calls thinking he's, you know nothing's
什么事都没有。
Nothing.
股价从来不会突然上涨。
Gonna The stock never jumps.
是的。
Yeah.
财报公布时股价从来不会跳涨，你知道的。
Stock never jumps on earnings, you know.
真的有人买下了我的期权。
Someone actually bought my options.
但这个故事要从我的童年说起，我从小就爱折腾。
But the story, the story that goes all the way back to my childhood was I, so I was always a hustler.
我周末会去搞旧货甩卖。
I would do garage sales on the weekends.
这比Gary Vee开始讲‘车库买卖’早多了。我真的是早上五点就坐公交车穿梭在达拉斯市区。
Like this is way before Gary Vee was talking about I garage would buy and sell, I would literally take the bus around the city of Dallas, at like five in the morning.
前一天晚上我会仔细研究报纸上的甩卖广告。
I would study the sales in the newspaper the night before.
我确实会认真研究那些广告，而且我发现搞车库甩卖的大多是女性。
Would literally study the sales and I knew that garage sales were managed by women.
不过在深入这个话题之前，想问一下，你有没有考虑过通过削减成本来提升公司的利润？
Although really quick before we go into that, are you looking at cutting costs and improving your business's bottom line?
其实，很多优秀的企业经营者都转向了我们的赞助商 Ramp，用它来减少不必要的开支，优化财务运营。
Well, the best business operators have turned to our sponsor Ramp to help them cut down on wasteful spending and improve their finance operations.
Ramp 是
Ramp is
一款企业信用卡和支出管理软件，旨在帮你节省时间，把钱省下来装进自己的口袋。
the corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket.
使用Ramp，消费政策直接嵌入卡片，能在支出发生前就加以控制。
With Ramp, spend policies are built into the card to control spending before it even happens.
它会自动收集并分类收据，从此再也不用到处追着要单据；同时Ramp还会监控合规情况，发现违规行为会发出警报，甚至冻结卡片。
It automatically collects and categorizes receipts so you'll never have to chase them down again, plus Ramp enforces compliance flagging violations and locking cards for noncompliance.
举个例子，如果格雷厄姆想用公司卡给自己水族箱买珊瑚，系统立刻会标记并冻结他的卡片。
Basically saying if Graham wants to use the iced coffee hour company card to go buy himself some coral for his reef aquarium, he'll be flagged and his card will be locked.
所以别这么干。
So don't do it,
格雷厄姆还能帮你把整个财务流程整合到一个平台，包括报销、供应商付款和费用申报，全都一目了然。
Graham also helps streamline your entire financial work flow from expense reporting, vendor payments, and reimbursements all in one place.
而且，企业用Ramp第一年平均能节省5%的开支。
Plus, businesses save an average of 5% in their first year with Ramp.
更别说，注册Ramp还能领250美元优惠。
Not to mention, you could get $250 when you join Ramp.
你只需要访问 ramp.com/ich 就能领取这个福利。
All you gotta do is go to ramp.com/ich to claim your offer.
再强调一遍，是 ramp.com/ich。
Again, that's ramp.com/ich.
ramp.com/ich，链接在下方的描述里。
Ramp.com/ich with the link down below in the description.
卡片由萨顿银行发行，该银行为FDIC成员，具体条款适用。
Cards issued by Sutton Bank, member FDIC, terms and conditions apply.
感谢Ramp赞助本期节目，接下来继续回到播客。
Thank you to Ramp for sponsoring this episode and back to the podcast.
我那时候真的会仔细研究那些甩卖，知道搞车库拍卖的大多是年长的女性。
I would literally study the sales and I knew that garage sales were managed by women, older women.
她们特别擅长给珠宝、古董这类东西定价。
And they were really good at pricing jewelry and antiques and stuff like that.
但只要是男性喜欢的东西，比如火车模型、棒球卡、手表之类的，她们就根本不在意，随便扔那儿，因为完全不在她们的熟悉范围内。
But any item that was male oriented like train sets or baseball cards or watches or like anything that was male oriented, they just kind of discarded and didn't care about because it wasn't like up their alley.
她们根本不懂这些。
They didn't really understand it.
那时候还没eBay，你要是不知道东西值多少钱，就得靠价格手册和书，翻来查去才能知道。
This is pre eBay when you didn't know what things were worth unless you had like a price list and a book and you would look it up to see what it's worth.
所以我专门去找车库拍卖，因为我知道这些东西在遗产拍卖或者车库拍卖里经常标错价。
So I would look for garage sales oriented knowing that they were more likely to be mispriced at the estate sale or the garage sale.
然后我搭公交车去，通常一天只能赶得上一场，因为你得抢第一个到。
And I would then take the bus and you could usually only get one sale in to be first act because you had to be first.
所以我每天五点就到，坐在人家门口等开门，有时候啥也没捡到，有时候却能淘到好东西。
So I would get there five in the morning and just sit outside the house until they opened up and you know, sometimes I hit nothing, sometimes I would hit stuff.
每天早上我都会先去7-Eleven，买一瓶Snapple风味的冰茶，因为那时候太早了，得提提神，我小时候从来不喝咖啡。
I'd start every morning at the seven Eleven, I would get a Snapple flavored iced tea because it was really early in the morning, I want to wake up, you know, I didn't drink coffee as a kid.
那时候我才十三四岁，有一天早上我走进7-Eleven，发现他们没货了——那种我常喝的柠檬味Snapple冰茶，居然断货了。
So that was like 13, 14 years old and one morning I walked into seven lemon, they didn't have any lemon flavored Snapple iced tea, which is what I used to get.
我当时就纳闷：这是怎么回事？
And I was like, what's going on?
店员说，以前他们摆两整柜的Snapple，但那时候Snapple正火，现在只摆了半柜。
He's like, well, instead of having two full refrigerators of Snapple, this is back in the day when Snapple was everything, There was only half of one door Snapple.
他说，现在有竞争对手了，比如亚利桑那牌和其他冰茶。
He's like, there's competitors now, Arizona, other iced teas.
他说，以后就只摆这一半的冰茶了。
He's like, that's all we're going to have from now on.
于是我回家找我当股票经纪人的哥哥商量。
So I went home, talked to my older brother who's a stockbroker.
我就问他，这事儿能赚钱吗？
I was like, can I make money on this?
他说，也许可以。
He's like, well maybe.
他还教我怎么用看跌期权做空Snapple。
He's like, he taught me how to short Snapple through put options.
你懂吧？
Right?
那时候我攒了三百块钱，都是从这些跳蚤市场倒卖赚来的。
And so I had $300 saved up from all these garage sale trades I had done.
我把那300美元现金给了他。
I gave him the $300 in cash.
我问他，你能帮我操作吗？
I said, can you do that for me?
他说，好，我来买点Snapple的看跌期权。
He said, yeah, I'll buy some puts on Snapple.
他们几周后就要公布财报了，反正就是这样。
They have earnings in a few weeks, whatever.
他买了看跌期权，那时候Snapple可是全球最热门的公司之一。
So he bought the puts and that was Snapple is one of the hottest companies in the world at the time.
那是他们第一次财报发布。
That was the first earnings.
结果他们没达到预期，因为财报说渠道库存积压了，零售商没给它们多少货架空间。
They missed earnings because it said inventory was building up in the channel because retailers were not giving them as much shelf space.
我当时才十三四岁，看出了连华尔街专业人士都没注意到的事，这件事一直记在我心里。
So I was a 13, 14 year old kid that saw something that people working on Wall Street didn't even see, and that stayed with me.
我当时就想，我一个十几岁的孩子，怎么就能看出这一点呢？
I was like, how did I see that as a kid just going into seven line?
那些在华尔街管着几十亿美金的人，怎么就都没注意到呢？
How did the guys that work on Wall Street that manage billions of dollars, how did they not see that?
这事儿明明就摆在眼前，再明显不过了。
It's just so right in front of your face.
我后来明白了，金融行业的人，他们的思维根本不会往这种方向看。
And what I realized was that people that work in the financial industry, their brains aren't tuned to like see things like that.
他们只关注财务数据。
They're focused on financials.
有时候也只看技术指标。
They're focused on technical sometimes.
他们都被群体思维裹挟了，而且那时候大都集中在同一个地方。
They're part of a herd mentality and they all kind of live in one area of the country or at least they did back then.
他们基本都是男性，想法也几乎都一样。
They're mostly male and they mostly thought one way.
所以，在他们根本不关注的生活领域里，其实藏着很多容易被忽略的机会。
So there were lots of opportunities to see things in areas of life that they weren't really focused on that they would miss.
就像我以前在跳蚤市场留意男性用品一样，早年我花了很多时间去观察女性导向的趋势、产品和品牌，尤其是那些年轻、有活力的品牌，因为华尔街那些白人老哥根本不会留意这些年轻人或女性喜欢的东西，也不会关注美国中部地区刚开始流行起来的风潮。
So the same way that I would look for male oriented items at garage sales, I spent a lot of time in my early years trying to detect change with female oriented trends and products and brands or brands that were young or youthful because an old white guy on Wall Street didn't really pay attention to things that were youthful or female or things that started trending in the middle of the country.
我记得当年一些重要的投资决策，比如‘张氏’或者‘芝士工厂’。
So I remember some of my big trades from back in the day were like Chang's or Cheesecake Factory.
你想想，一个住在曼哈顿的人。
Because think about a guy who lives in Manhattan.
他压根儿没见过‘张氏’这家店。
He just never seen a Chang's.
他完全不了解，在德克萨斯这类地方，当地人第一次吃中餐时有多疯狂，哪怕他们吃的根本不是正宗中餐。
He doesn't understand the degree of buzz that was happening in places like Texas when their people were eating Chinese food for the first time, right, or thought they were eating Chinese food.
对。
Mhmm.
他根本想不到，那家店门口排队要等三个小时。
Like he didn't understand there was like a three hour wait to get in that place.
他根本没想到，这件事居然能发展到这种规模——开上成百上千家店，每家都排着三小时的队。
He didn't they didn't understand how big of a deal that was, that they would be able to open hundreds and thousands of these places and everyone would be exactly like that with three hour waits.
他们以为这不过是短暂的潮流，其实不然，那些非大都市的人根本没吃过中餐。
They thought it was probably a fad, but no, like people outside of these cosmopolitan regions had never had Chinese food.
我一直说，关键不在于你有多聪明，而在于你用一种完全不同的方式去思考。
So it's all about, I always say it's about, it's not about being really smart, It's about being smart in a totally different way than others.
这才是真正能带来回报的地方。
That that's that's what what pays dividends.
那你后来是做了什么工作，才最终全职投身投资的？
And then what job did you get that you worked at for a while to then go into investing full time?
之后，你一生中最重要的几笔投资交易是哪些？
And after that, what were some of the most pivotal trades that you've made in your entire life?
我特别喜欢听这些故事。
I love the stories.
是的。
Yeah.
比如一次大的押注，有大赚也有大亏的那种
Maybe like a big swing one and a big, you know, positive swing and negative
押注。
swing.
是的。
Yeah.
我年轻的时候就经常交易，玩得挺开心的。
I I mean so, like, I traded a lot as a as a young kid, and was having fun with it.
我那时候有点像赌徒。
I was kind of, it was kind of a bit of a gambler.
我主要交易期权。
I was trading options.
上SMU大学的时候，我就一直在做交易。
I would trade through college when I was at SMU.
后来嘛，人总会经历一些变化，开始忙别的事，注意力就分散了。
And then I kind of, you know, you go through a life where you, you know, you start doing other things, you know, and you just get distracted.
我就是这种情况。
And that's what happened to me.
有段时间我干脆不交易了。
Like I just stopped trading for a while.
那时候我对交易完全没了兴趣，直到二十多岁快三十岁的时候，我才开始过上真正的生活——有了妻子，计划组建家庭，想要买房子这类大件东西。
I just wasn't interested and it wasn't until I guess my mid twenties, mid to late twenties when I was having a real life with a wife and planning a family and wanting things, big things like houses and stuff like that.
想到退休的事，才意识到，人长大了，生活真贵啊。
And when thinking about my retirement and they're like, you know, you grow up and you're like, life is expensive.
我当时就做着一份普通的工作。
And I was working just a normal job.
我在一家科技公司上班。
I mean, my job was at a tech company.
我参与打造了全球第一个在线调研面板。
I was helping to build the world's first online research panel.
我帮着建立了一家公司叫E-Rewards，后来它掌控了全球约三分之一的调研面板，也就是说，任何人做调研，都得通过我们平台找人答题。
I helped build a company called e rewards that ended up controlling about a third of all the research panel in the world, meaning anytime someone's doing a study, someone has to answer that study.
我们基本上把调研问卷搬到了网上。
And we basically took research panels and moved them online.
但说到底，那也 just 是一份工作。
But it was at the end of the day, was just a job.
我挣得不少。
I was making good money.
一年大概有二十万美元。
I was making like $200,000 a year.
这太棒了。
That's fantastic.
那是哪一年？
When was this?
大概是两千年初到中期吧。
This is in like the mid 2 thousands, early to mid 2 thousands.
明白了。
Okay.
这收入真不错。
That's an incredible income.
对。
Yeah.
不过我那时候事业进展得特别快。
But I I had accelerated my career.
我在职业发展上也挺拼的。
I was a bit of a hustler in my career as well.
对吧？
Right?
所以我升职挺快的，做过销售，也做过商务拓展，反正就是那样吧。
So I climbed the ladder pretty quick and I was a sales guy and a biz dev guy and I just, you know, it's just.
现在大家可能都在说人工智能正在改变工作方式。
Now, you might be hearing that AI is transforming work.
但如果你真的在公司里推行过，你就知道实际效果通常是怎样的。
But if you've actually rolled it out in your company, you know how it usually goes.
你投了钱，大家都上了手，可几个月后，根本没人用。
You make the investment, everyone gets onboarded, and a few months later, no one's using it.
幸运的是，今天的赞助商Superhuman Go恰恰是为长期使用设计的。
Well, thankfully, today's sponsor, Superhuman Go, is actually built to stick.
如果你还不了解，Superhuman Go是一个嵌在浏览器侧边的AI聊天助手，随时帮你处理手头的任务。
For those unaware, Superhuman Go is an AI chat that sits right on the side of your browser, ready to help you with any task that you're working on.
它由Grammarly的团队打造，能无缝融入你团队已经在用的工具和网站。
It's actually for the makers of Grammarly and works inside the tools and sites your team already uses.
不管屏幕上是什么——邮件、文档、网页，它都能立刻知道你在看什么。
Like, whatever's on your screen, I'm talking an email, a document, a website, it already knows what you're looking at.
你不用新开标签页，不用复制粘贴，也不用从头解释一遍。
You're not opening new tabs, pasting stuff in, or explaining yourself from scratch.
你只要开口问，它就能帮你总结长邮件串、起草回复，或者根据当前内容帮你准备会议。
All you have to do is ask and it'll summarize a long email thread, draft your reply, or prep you for a meeting using what's right in front of you.
它还能跨所有工具搜索，省得你挨个点五个应用，拼命回想东西到底存哪儿了。
It also searches across your tools so you're not clicking through five apps trying to remember where something is.
而且因为没人需要学新东西，整个团队自然都会用。这是把AI融入业务最简单的方式。
Plus, since nobody has to learn anything new, everyone on the team ends up using It's the easiest way to get AI into your business.
所以如果你受够了那些买了却没人用的工具，不妨试试Superhuman Go。
So if you're done paying for tools that nobody touches, give Superhuman Go a shot.
想了解更多，直接去superhuman.com就行。
All you gotta do to find out more is go to superhuman.com.
再次强调，就是superhuman.com，或者点击下方描述里的链接。
Again, that is superhuman.com or click the link down below in the description.
再次感谢Superhuman对本集的赞助。
Thanks again to Superhuman for sponsoring this episode.
我以前是个很认真的人。
I was a serious person.
对吧？
Right?
不管怎么说，不管我做什么，我都会全身心投入，而且态度挺强硬的。
Like I I just, for better or worse, like whatever I'm doing in my life, I'm, you know, I'm serious about it and I'm pretty aggressive.
所以我在事业上很拼，发展得也不错，但总觉得还没达到自己想要的水平。
And so I was aggressive with my career and I was doing well, but I still wasn't doing as well I wanted as I wanted to do.
我想做到比这好得多。
I want to do way better than that.
我当时就想，我的职业生涯恐怕再也爬不上去了。
I was like, there's no way I can really climb this career any further.
那段时间真的挺难的。
It was really tough.
我当时挺沮丧的，因为你看，我周围那些人都已经是C-level高管了。
I was getting frustrated because, you know, I was looking at guys around me who were like C level.
我就想，我也该做到那个位置了，我也该赚那么多钱。
I was like, I should be at the end, I should be making that much money.
我一年怎么也得赚一百万吧。
I should be making 1,000,000 a year.
我看着华尔街那些人，心想我也该一年赚个一两百万。
I was looking at guys on Wall Street going, I should be making a million, 2,000,000 a year.
但当你身处一个职业中，事情就会变得很难，这正是我想说的收入差距问题。
But it's hard when you're in a career, you know, and that's what I'm talking about when it comes to the income gap.
我当时处境不错，对大多数人来说可能也算不错，但对我还不够。
I was in a good place, but for most people, but not for me.
很多人其实和我当初一样，但他们年收入只有六七万、八万，甚至三万，而不是二十万。
You know, a lot of people are in that same situation, but instead of making 200 ks a year, they're making 60 or 70 or 80 or 30.
说实话，他们并没有我小时候享有的那些优势。
And quite honestly, they didn't have the privileges that I had in my life.
我出生在一个很好的家庭，住在富裕的社区。
You know, I grew up in a great family, wealthy neighborhood.
我能接触到很多聪明人，也有资本去冒险。
I had access to all kinds of smart people, know, and I could take risk.
大多数人根本没机会翻身。
Most people just don't have the ability to escape.
他们缺少那种摆脱困境的推力。
They don't have that escape velocity.
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不管你赚多少钱，从事什么职业，都没法轻易摆脱现状。
There's no way to escape whatever your income is, whatever your profession is.
所以对我来说，唯一出路就是市场，这一点我很清楚。
So, the only way for me to escape it was through the market and I knew that.
我觉得，市场里我可以随心所欲地做任何事。
I was like, the market, I can do whatever I want.
我可以成为任何我想成为的人。
I could be whoever I want.
我可以找一份月薪几千的工作，也可以在市场里赚上几万。
I could like have a job that pays me this much, I can make this much in the market.
我起步时有两万美元，其实我总共只有八万七千块，我拿出了其中的两万。
I started with $20,000 I actually had $87,000 to my name and I took 20,000 of the 87,000.
我说，我就用这两万块，像小时候那样做交易，只管找线索、看变化、把它们串起来。
I said, I'm going to take this 20,000 and I'm going to do the type of trading I did when I was a kid, just trying to connect dots, look at change and connect dots.
我不看财务报表，也不研究技术演示。
I'm not looking at financials and not looking at tech demos.
顺便说一句，我小时候把所有投资类的书都读了一遍，一本不落。
By the way, I'd read every investment book as a kid, every single one.
我当时就觉得，这些东西根本不适合我。
I was like, none of that stuff's for me.
我试过各种投资，包括商品交易。
I tried all, tried investing commodities.
我以前常去商品店，买银砖，盯着银价看，最后干脆放弃了，这玩意儿太扯了。
I used to go to a commodity store and I would buy silver bricks of silver and like read the silver price and I'm like, screw this.
我折腾了九个月，最后就剩了五块钱。
I've been in this for nine months and about $5.
又把剩下的银子退回店里了。
Sold back in the store.
商品交易真不适合我，对吧？
Commodity is not for me, right?
我试遍了所有类型的交易，技术分析都摸过。
I was like, I went through every type of trading, technicals.
我觉得这太无聊了。
I was like, this is boring.
我可没法整天盯着这些图表看。
I can't look at these charts all day.
这真不适合我，性格对不上。
I'm like, this is just not my, it's not my temperament, man.
我不想一辈子过这种日子。
It's not, I don't want to live my life like that.
整天盯着电脑屏幕和图表，这不是我。
Looking at computer screens and charts, it's not me.
所以我得找点别的，得是那种让我觉得有趣，才肯认真去做的事儿。
So I was like, I had to find something that worked that I was, was going to have enough fun with to get serious with.
所以。
So
我
I
我就想，我一定要试试。
was like, I'm going to do it.
我想看看自己能不能做成。
I'm going to see if I can do it.
我一开始拿了两万美元，后来遇到了一个叫Covestre的平台。
I started with 20,000 and then there was this thing called Covestre.
Covestre是全球第一个投资组合追踪服务，他们跟踪了大约四万五千个账户。
Covestre was the world's first portfolio tracking service and they're tracked like 45,000 accounts.
其中很多都是前对冲基金经理。
A lot of them were ex hedge fund guys.
你把自己的账户连上去，他们就会监控你的表现。
You would load up your account and they would see how well you're doing.
你跟世界各地的真正交易员比拼成绩。
You competed against real traders around the world.
那是2000年左右的事了。
This was back in the 2000.
天哪。
Wow.
好久以前了。
Long time ago.
果然，我那时候表现得不错。
Well sure enough, I was doing pretty well.
我把那两万块变成了二十万，这事儿我永远都忘不了。
I turned that $2,000 $20,000 I can never forget this.
后来居然涨到了四十万，我简直不敢相信。
I turned into like, oh my gosh, I was like at 400,000.
我当时只有两万。
I was like, 20,000.
结果一下子到了四十万。
I was like, have 400,000.
我记得我去找了我朋友帕特里克，他是我最好的朋友，也在同一家公司上班。
I remember going to my buddy Patrick, who's my best friend who worked at the same company.
我当时就说，总有一天我要把这笔钱变成一百万美元。
I said, I'm going to turn this into a million dollars someday.
三个月后，靠我的交易，真就赚到了一百万。
Like three months later, was a million bucks with my trade.
简直太疯狂了。
It was crazy.
没过多久，就涨到了两百万。
And then a little bit later, was 2,000,000.
真的假的。
No.
后来我成了Covestor平台上全球排名第一的投资者，那个平台就是用来跟踪投资表现的。
And so I became the number one investor on Covestor in the world that was the tracking.
之后媒体纷纷来找我采访。
And then I got a bunch of media attention for it.
我还上了电视，比如福克斯商业频道，专门聊这件事。
And I was like on the new I was on like Fox Business talking about it.
后来我签了个出书的合同，写一本关于我这套方法的书，讲我是怎么在两年内把两万美元变成两百万的。
And then I got a, a book deal, to write a book about this methodology, how I turned 20,000 to 2,000,000 in two years.
我当时就想，就到这儿吧。
And I took a, I said, this is it.
我有两百万了，够了，不干了。
I got $2,000,000 I'm done.
我不再上班了。
I'm done working.
我要辞职。
I'm quitting my job.
辞了。
Quit.
我辞职了。
I quit.
我当时就觉得，彻底结束了。
I was like, I was done.
我再也不想上班了。
Like I'm never working again.
我就决定，这一年先休息，专心写书。
And I said, I'm going to take the year off and write the book.
于是我真的歇了一整年。
So I went, I took the year off.
那一年我妻子怀了双胞胎。
I was having twins that year.
我妻子怀着双胞胎，我每天却在星巴克写书。
My wife is pregnant with twins and I worked out of a Starbucks.
每天我都去星巴克，一整年天天写这本书。
Every day I go to Starbucks and I write my book every day for full year.
书写完了，叫《笑对华尔街》，2010年出版的。
And I wrote the book and it's called Laughing at Wall Street, came out like 2010.
书里讲的都是我的经历，我是怎么走到这一步的，还有那些让我翻身的交易故事。
And it's all about my life and how I got there and all the stories of all the trades that got me.
我实实在在地讲了所有那些让我走到今天的重大交易。
I literally talked about all the big trades that got me there.
比如当年的Ugg和Crocs这类品牌。
Trades like Uggs, trades like Crocs back in the day.
这些都叫什么来着？
All this What do you call it?
那个基因公司叫True Religion，对吧？
What's the gene company True Religion?
是不是那时候特别火的那些老牌子？
Is it like all these old school companies back then?
是在一场派对上。
At a party.
当时主要是女性和年轻人在追捧。
Was all like female and youth.
全是当时最火的女性和年轻人群体趋势。
Every heavy female, heavy youth trends.
我比别人更快地捕捉到这些趋势，都是些特别简单明了的东西。
I was picking up on all these trends a little bit quicker than other people connecting the dots and about all stupid simple stuff.
连傻子都能看出来的事。
Stuff that an idiot could see.
我做的那些事，根本谈不上什么高深莫测。
Like there was nothing sophisticated about anything that I did.
没错。
No.
说到底，我就是一个大傻瓜。
I'm just like a big idiot at the end of the day.
我从不靠激进手段。
Like there's nothing I'm aggressive.
我靠的是灵活应变。
I'm resourceful.
我想法很大，但说实话，我高中都没怎么及格过。
Like I think big, but like I barely passed high school guys.
我当时在高中班上是倒数四分之一。
Like I was the bottom quartile of my high school class.
我的思维方式一直有点与众不同。
I've always been a little bit off in the way that my mind works.
我就是对看书啊、写东西啊提不起劲，那根本不是我能干的事。
And I just like, I never could fit like books and stuff and just, it was never my work.
只要你给我一个我感兴趣的东西，我就会全身心扑上去。
Like if you give me something I'm interested in, I'm all in.
你知道的，我现在每天晚上从十点熬到凌晨两三点，全年无休。
Today, as you know, I told you, I'm up from 10PM to two to 3AM every night, every night of the year.
我做的全是社会趋势研究。
All I do is social research.
我每天就是刷抖音的评论，找下一个要火起来的东西。
All I'm doing is reading comments on Tik Tok videos, looking for the next thing that's trending.
我每天晚上就干这个，一周七天，周五到周一，天天如此。
That's literally all I do every night, seven nights a week, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, everything.
但那时候我手上有好多大单子，还没反应过来，事情就一直越做越大，从那以后就没停过，今年已经是我在社交套利交易这条路上的第十八年了。
But so I had all these big trades man and it just before you knew it, yeah, I mean it just kept growing and growing and it has never stopped And I'm on my eighteenth year of social arb trading.
我知道这听起来简直难以置信。
I know this is so hard to believe.
连我自己都不信。
I don't believe it myself.
每年我都跟自己说，去年肯定是最后一次了，不会再有这种事了。
Every year I say to myself, the last year was the last year that this is going to happen.
结果呢，它又发生了。
And like it happened again.
今年它又来了。
And it's happening again this year.
今年我的账户又涨了整整一倍。
My account's up like 100% again this year.
就算你觉得这有点被吹过头了，人工智能现在也无处不在，从自动驾驶到分子医学，再到企业效率提升。
Even if you think it's a bit overhyped, AI is suddenly everywhere from self driving cars to molecular medicine, to business efficiency.
如果您的行业还没用上，我敢打赌，很快就会用上了。
And if it's not in your industry yet, I guarantee you it will be very soon.
但AI需要大量的运算速度和处理能力。
But AI needs a lot of speed and processing power.
那您怎么在不导致成本失控的情况下跟上节奏呢？
So how do you compete without your costs spiraling out of control?
所以现在是时候升级到下一代云平台了——Oracle云基础设施，也就是我们的赞助商OCI。
Well, that's why it's time to upgrade to the next generation of the cloud, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure or our sponsor OCI.
如果您还不了解，OCI是一个速度极快、安全性极高的平台，支持基础设施、数据库、应用开发，以及所有AI和机器学习任务。
For those unaware, OCI is a blazing fast and secure platform for infrastructure, database, application development, plus all of your AI and machine learning workloads.
OCI的计算成本低50%，网络成本低80%，能帮您省下一大笔钱。
OCI also costs 50% less for compute and 80% less for networking, so you're saving a ton of money.
已经有成千上万家企业迁移到了OCI，包括沃达丰、汤森路透，还有Suno AI。
Thousands of businesses have already upgraded to OCI, including Vodafone, Thomson Reuters, and Suno AI.
现在，Oracle推出优惠：只要您迁移到OCI，就能把您当前的云服务账单减半。
And right now, Oracle is offering to cut your current cloud bill in half when you move to OCI.
这个优惠面向新注册的美国客户，需满足最低消费额度，截止日期是3月31日。
This is for new US customers with minimum financial commitment, and the offer ends March 31.
赶紧去 oracle.com/iced 查看你的公司是否符合这项特别优惠。
So see if your company qualifies for this special offer at oracle.com/iced.
再次提醒，网址是 oracle.com/iced，链接在下方的简介里。
Again, it's oracle.com/iced with the link down below in the description.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
好了，我们继续回到播客内容。
And now let's get back to the podcast.
这事发生在疫情期间。
It happened during the pandemic.
大家都知道疫情是怎么回事。
You guys know the pandemic.
我平时也公开聊过这个，今天就再提一提。
I talk about this publicly, so I'll talk about this.
是的
Yeah.
疫情那年，我靠一个起始资金400万美元的账户赚了3000万美元。
So I made 30,000,000 the year of the pandemic, trading on a starting with an account that had 4,000,000 in it.
我把400万变成了大约3400万，或者说一度赚了3500万，差不多就是这个数。
So I turned 4,000,000 into like 34,000,000 or something like that or like I made 30, I was up 35,000,000 at one point.
但那是因为我在翻译中国的报纸和医疗报告。
But it was because I was converting Chinese newspapers and medical reports.
疫情刚爆发时，我每天用谷歌翻译逐条分析中国医疗行业人士关于新冠的发言，简直着了魔。
I was using Google translate on every single person in China that was in the medical industry talking about COVID when it was breaking out over there and I became obsessed.
我觉得，就是这个了。
I was like, this is it.
这是个大机会。
This is the big one.
这是我等了一辈子的机会。
This is the one I've been waiting for my whole life.
我不是说因为全球疫情爆发就开心，对吧？
Not like happy that we have a global virus, right?
但我当时就觉得，有些大事发生时，世界根本没法想象，直到它真真切切地摆在眼前。
But I was like, I knew that things happen really big that the world just does not meant, cannot mentally grasp until it's, you know, right in front of their face.
如果你能早点抓住这些机会，它们可不会经常出现。
And if you can capture a little bit early, these things only come around so often.
AI就是其中一个，对吧？
AI is one of them, right?
那时候是新冠疫情。
At the time it was COVID.
我当时拿了账户里10%的资金去买看跌期权，每周都买，连续三周全亏光了。
So I took, dude, I took like 10% of my account buying put, weekly puts and I lost all my money every week for like three weeks.
三周内我的净资产缩水了30%，因为市场就是不动。
I lost 30% of my net worth in three weeks because the market wouldn't move.
我当时想，这太疯狂了。
I was like, this is crazy.
一场病毒即将彻底让整个世界停摆。
A virus is about to literally stop the entire world as we know it.
我们这一代人，这辈子，即将迎来第一次全球大流行。
We're about to have our first pandemic of our, of our generation, of our lifetime.
我们从来没想过这种事情真的会发生。
We never knew this is possible.
市场眼看就要崩盘了，可它没崩，根本没人提这事，我就纳闷，怎么就没一个人看出来呢？
The market's going to crash and it didn't crash and no, no, like no one's talking about I'm like, why is no one seeing this?
怎么就没一个人看出来呢？
Why is no one seeing this?
我记得那天市场刚跌了2%，我特地打开CNBC看，平时我根本不看这频道，就等着他们也发现我看到的信号，然后开始讨论。
And I remember like CNBC had this episode the first day at the market dip 2% and I was watching the CNBC and I never watched CNBC only to see when they would see what I was seeing and start talking about it.
Fast Money那帮人全在说，这正是我们等了好久的机会。
And all the guys on like fast money were all like, this is the moment we've been waiting for.
市场跌了两个百分点。
The market dropped two percent.
这正是你低价进场的好机会。
Here's your chance to get back in the, to get in the market cheap.
我当时就想，什么？
I was like, what?
那时候市场正创历史新高，才跌了2%，他们居然说这是买入的好时机。
The market was like breaking all time highs, it dipped 2% and their reaction was what an opportunity to buy more.
我差点一拳打穿电视，再这么下去几周，我就要破产了。
I'm like, I almost put my fist through the television because I was going go broke if this happened a few more weeks.
所以我只能硬着头皮坚持下去。
So I just got to stick with it.
我又来了一次，这回是每周操作，换了个方式。
And I did it again, weeklies, another way.
我主要是在买标普500的看跌期权，还有赌场股和航空股的看跌期权。
And I was basically buying puts on the S and P and I was buying puts on, casino stocks and airlines.
天哪。
Wow.
所以就是赌场股票、航空公司，还有整个标普指数。
So it's casino stocks, airlines and then the S and P at large.
等真的崩了，那真是狠狠地崩了。
And then when it hit, it hit and man it hit.
当时我就想，说这些话我其实挺难受的，因为这事儿太惨了。
And so it was like, it was like it hit and I know I feel terrible talking about this in a positive way because it's like the most devastating thing.
我心里清楚，这疫情我啥也改变不了。
It's like in my mind, I'm like, I can't do anything about the pandemic.
是啊。
Yes.
但我能赚钱，然后用这些钱去做点真正有意义的事。
But I can make money and then use that money in a good way to help people.
这才是我活着的意义。
And that's what my life is about.
所以我才把所有钱都捐给了基金会，对吧？
That's why I put all my money in the foundation, right?
帮助孩子们。
To help kids.
但我当时就想，我肯定会赚一大笔钱。
But like, I was like, I'm going to make a lot of money.
有了钱，就有了影响力，能为这个世界做更多好事。
With money comes power, comes leverage to do good in the world.
这就是我的全部信念。
That's my whole philosophy.
所以没错，市场真的爆发了，赚的钱多得离谱。
So yeah, it hit, hit big and it was, the money was insane.
规模大得超出了你平时看到的日常波动。
It was big, way bigger than what you just saw like on a daily basis.
最让人惊讶的是，我一直觉得这太不可思议了，居然有十几家公司，这种情况反而是好事，不是坏事。
Holy and then the craziest part was the whole time I was like, this is wild because there's like 15 companies where this is actually a good thing, not a bad thing.
比如Shopify、亚马逊、Peloton这些公司，它们做的产品正好适合那些足不出户的人。
Shopify, Amazon, Peloton, companies that make anything that would be advantageous to people that don't leave their homes anymore.
你明白我的意思吧？
You know what I'm saying?
比如房车公司、宠物用品公司，这些行业全因为居家办公突然火了。
Like, you know, RVs, RV companies and pet company and you know, all the stuff ended up booming because of the work from home.
但我当时觉得，时机还太早，没人看得出来。
But I was like, it's too early, the world doesn't see it.
所以我早就准备好了一堆公司，还买了它们的看涨期权。
So I had all these companies ready to go and I was getting my call options on all of them.
但我一直等着，等大家开始疯狂跟风的时候再出手。
But I was like, I can't do it until people are like flushing this trade out.
我等到市场触底两天后，反弹刚开始，就觉得该行动了。
And I waited two days after the market bottomed, when it started to come back up, like I think it's time.
于是我全仓做多。
And so I put on all my long trades.
我平了空单，全部转成多单，那时候事情才真正炸了。
I got on my short, put on all my long trades and that's when it got really nuts.
那时候简直就像
And it's like
你觉得你单日赚得最多的一次是多少？
What would you say your biggest dollar amount day is?
有几百万美元吧，一天赚了三百万左右吧。
Back A few million dollars, 3,000,000 in a day or something like that.
是的。
Yeah.
但那时候我的账户一开始也就四百万左右。
But for an account that was started off at like 4,000,000.
年初的时候，账户里也就四百万到四百五十万吧。
You know, like at the beginning of the year, the account was 4,000,000, 4 and a half million.
那真是疯狂。
So it was crazy.
之后我赚了钱，但最糟的是，那一年结束后，我心态就乱了，有点走火入魔，这点你清楚，因为没过多久我就跟你一起吃过饭。
And then I made, and then, and then the, the worst part is after that year, it messed with my head and I went a little crazy and you know this because I met, had dinner with you shortly afterwards.
你刚才跟我们说了关于
You were telling us about
好吧。
All right.
不好意思。
Sorry.
事实就是如此。
Is what it is.
所以我得说一下。
So I'm gonna put out there.
我接触了NFT。
I got into NFTs.
嗯，是这样。
Okay.
疫情期间，我们都有点疯魔了。
I got a little, we all went a little crazy during the pandemic.
每个人发疯的方式都不一样。
We all go crazy in our own ways.
好吧。
Okay.
我那时候彻底上头了，因为加入了一个聊天群，里头全是特别有意思的人。
I went nuts because like I joined this text group and a lot of really interesting people.
这事得从 Logan Paul 说起，他跟 Gary Vee 一起，还有另外十几个家伙，一起买了 CryptoPunks。
It all started with that, you know, Logan Paul was on a, on a chain with Gary Vee and about 12 other guys that bought CryptoPunks.
我有个朋友就在那个群里。
One of my buddies is on that.
他们一结束那个通话，我朋友就立刻在我们群里发消息，说：‘刚跟 Gary Vee 开完一个疯子般的 Zoom 会，他们全在买 CryptoPunks。’
As soon as they got off of that, he texted our group and he was like, guys, I just got off this crazy zoom with Gary Vee and you're like, we're all buying crypto punks.
我当时就想，我也要买一个 CryptoPunk。
I was like, I want to buy a crypto punk.
于是我就买了，结果一发不可收拾，整个 NFT 市场都炸了。
And so I bought my crypto punk and then there, and then it just went nuts, the whole NFT.
我早早入手了这些NFT项目，结果价格疯涨，我一下子就上瘾了。
And I bought all these NFT projects early and it went nuts and I just got addicted.
挺有意思的。
It was fun.
疫情期间大家都困在家里，我正好有一群特别有趣的人，我们一起迷上了NFT，半夜两三点还在聊个不停。
We were all stuck at home during the pandemic and I had this really cool group of like really interesting people and we all got into NFTs together and we were talking about them at two, four in the morning.
我们就是图个开心。
We're just having fun with it.
就像一个个小圈子一样。
It was like little mini communities.
这是我小时候以来最开心的事之一。
It was one of the funnest things I had done since I was a kid.
那些艺术品本身价值不大，但能投资，再加上大家疫情期间都快疯了。
Like the little pieces of art that were kind of investable and we're all kind of mentally insane from the pandemic anyway.
反正也没啥是真实的。
And like nothing was real.
我根本不知道还有模因币这回事。
I didn't know there were meme coins.
那时候是游戏驿站事件。
It was GameStop.
我当时就觉得，这可能就是艺术的未来，你知道吧？
Like I was like, this is the future of art, you know?
我一头扎了进去，没想到最后居然没亏钱，你敢信？
And like I went in, I went in deep and I ended up actually not losing money, believe it or not.
因为我差不多在市场见顶前就把大部分NFT卖了，我看出来市场要出问题了。
Cause I actually sold most of those NFTs relatively close to the peak because I saw what was happening to the market.
这是流动性的问题。
It was a liquidity issue.
你得有额外的流动性才行。
You have to have additional liquidity.
当我发现那个币的NFT交易平台根本没人用的时候。
And when I realized that that coin base, their NFT marketplace wasn't really anything that anyone was gonna do.
我当时就想，赶紧抽身出来。
It's like, I'll get out of this.
问题是，我太沉迷于NFT了，完全没注意到第二年市场突然反转，结果持有了那些资产太久，也没做空市场——要是没那么分心，我肯定早就做了，那一年我可能错过了整整一亿美元的收益，我觉得。
The problem was I was so consumed by NFTs that I missed the entire like reversal of that market the next year and I held on to some of those positions too long and I wasn't shorting the market where I definitely would have been if I wasn't so distracted and I probably lost a $100,000,000 that I could have made that year, I think.
另外，我还真做了点事，就是想着跟创作者经济结合，打造真正能赚钱的生意，后来我跟一个做冰淇淋的年轻人迪伦合作了。
So, and I also did, you know, I I part I had this concept of working with the creator economy to build real businesses and I partnered with this ice cream kid, Dylan I
我记得。
remember that.
对。
Yeah.
我们往曼哈顿开了一家特别有意思的冰淇淋店，投进去几百万美元，但各种原因，好多事都不是我们能控制的。
Poured millions of dollars into doing a super fun ice cream shop in Manhattan and for various reasons, like a multitude of reasons that were out of our control.
最后那生意还是没做成。
It just, that business didn't work.
但我在那上面亏的钱不是重点，重点是我搭进去的时间。
But it's not about the money I lost in that business, it's about my time.
所以接下来的一年半到两年，我彻底分心了，那可是我本可以大展身手的关键时期。
So I became really distracted for about a year and a half, two years And it was a critical two years when I could have really killed it.
经历了这一切之后，我对自己说：到此为止了。
And after that whole experience, I said, that's it.
我回来了。
I'm back.
以后再也不会让任何事分散我的注意力了。
I'm not letting anything else distract me.
事实上，我决定，除非特殊情况，再也不投初创公司了。
In fact, I said, I'm not investing in startups anymore for the most part.
以前我可是投了差不多一百到一百五十家初创公司，对吧？
Like, cause I used to take, I'm in a 100, almost 150 startup investments, right?
那占了我太多时间了。
I was like too much of my time.
我要全身心回到我最擅长的领域。
I'm going all back into the thing I'm great at.
我在市场上有十七年的业绩记录，年化回报率一直保持在70%以上。
I have a seventeen year track record of like 70 plus percent annualized returns in the market.
我还有什么理由去做别的事呢？
What am I doing, doing anything else but that?
这简直太疯狂了，对吧？
It had to be insane, right?
我干嘛要去干别的呢？
Like why would I do anything but that?
所以我重新回来了，这两年一直没离开，交易生涯里最出色的两年就在这段时间。
And so I got back in it and I've been back in it now for a couple of years and I've had two of the best years of my trading.
简直不可思议。
It's wild.
这段经历真的太特别了，你知道吗？
It's been wild and I, you know what?
我特别享受这个过程，因为我又重新和我的社群连上了。我们Discord上有五万人，成千上万的人在做这种社交型交易，这正是我十五年前写书讲过的东西。他们特别热爱这个，我们就像一个大家庭，一起寻找世界的改变，分享想法。现在我又和戴夫、乔丹一起做每周直播了，就聊聊我们看到的东西，很多时候都是些小事。
I love it so much because I'm reengaging with my community again and there's like, have thousands, you know, we have 50,000 or discord, like thousands of people that do this type of trading, social art trading that I kind of wrote a book about, you know, fifteen years ago and they love it and we're just like a community and we're looking for change in the world and we share ideas and like that, I'm back with Dave and Jordan, we're doing weekly shows again, we're just talking about the stuff we see and you know, a lot of times it's little stuff.
这要么是品牌突然爆红，要么是品牌彻底崩盘。
It's a brand popping or a brand falling apart.
我刚才就提到过这个情况。
Like I talked about that right now.
比如耐克，现在看起来还在走下坡路，而有些品牌正火得不得了，我正在投它们。
Like, you know, Nike, think is still falling apart right now and there are other brands that are really hot I'm investing in.
所以我们总是想抢先一步，抓住趋势提前布局。
So we try to get ahead of the trends and invest in them.
说白了，就是这么简单。
It's it's literally that simple.
听起来是不是特别有意思？
And how fun does that sound?
这绝对是最好玩的投资方式。
It's the funnest investing ever.
我记得最清楚的一次，是你频道里那个假的宝可梦盒子突然火了。
The big moment I think where I remember your channel was popping off the fake Pokemon box.
那你那场直播就是这么做的。
That And you did that live stream.
对。
Yeah.
但那完全是另一回事。
But that was like a different thing.
那是NFT热潮的时候，虽然那会儿乱七八糟的，但也算有件好事。
That was the NFT you know, that was during the And NFT so one good thing came out of that though.
我认识了一个人，加里·金，就是做宝可梦卡片的那位。
I met a guy, Gary King Pokemon Yes.
就是从那次认识的。
From that.
我当时有个想法。
And I I had this concept.
洛根·保罗买下了最贵的一箱宝可梦卡。
Logan Paul bought the most expensive Pokemon box.
我当时还想再买一个最贵的。
Well, I was gonna buy the most expensive one on top of that.
对。
Yeah.
我打算把它拍卖掉，捐给我的基金会，就当玩一玩。
And I was gonna auction off and give it away for charity to my foundation just to have fun.
这事儿太有意思了，宝可梦。
It's like this seems so fun, Pokemon.
我就这么做了，结果没赚到多少钱。
And so I did it and it didn't really make much money.
我最后捐了几十万美元给孩子们和慈善机构，但那时候宝可梦的市场刚好有点下滑。
Like I end up giving hundreds of thousands of dollars to kids, charities, but, the market had come down on Pokemon a little bit during that period.
但我认识了加里·金，他介绍我认识了另一个叫马修的人，他正在办一个宝可梦交易展。
But I met this guy, Gary King Pokemon, and he introduced me to another guy, Matthew, who was starting a Pokemon trade show.
他说这人特别聪明。
He's like, he's like, this guy's really smart.
克里斯，你有钱。
Chris, you have money.
你相信这个领域。
You believe in this world.
我觉得这个领域一定会火起来。
I'm like, I do believe this world's going be big.
我相信，整个动漫和集换式卡牌的世界，华尔街的大多数人根本不信这个。
I believe like that whole, whole world of anime and like trading card games is a world that most people on Wall Street and they don't believe it.
他们根本搞不懂。
They don't understand it.
他们觉得这太宅了。
They think it's too nerdy.
我特别喜欢宅文化。
I love nerd culture.
我觉得在未来二十年，宅文化会迎来爆发式增长。
I think nerd culture is going to grow massively over the next two decades.
所以我决定投资 nerd 文化，那时候我主要在做 PSA 的交易，就是那些收藏品。
And so I wanted to invest in nerd culture and I was really trading PSA at the time, like collectors.
后来挺有意思的是，PSA 被史蒂夫·科恩收购了，我这儿还有个关于他的故事，可以跟你聊聊。
And then, it was funny because that got acquired by Steve Cohen and I have a good story about Steve Cohen too, I can talk about.
我从来没跟别人讲过这事。
I've never talked about it.
真棒。
Cool.
就过了六个星期。
Happened to six weeks.
但他买下了公司，而我当时还在交易那支股票。
But, he bought that and I was like, dude, was trading that.
我觉得这太离谱了，要是没被收购，那股票本来能翻倍的。
I want to and he, he acquired it and I was like, that's BS because that stock was going to double if you didn't acquire it.
于是我投资了这个展会，现在 Collect Icon 已经成了规模很大的顶级展会。
So I invested in this trade show and now Collect icon is like a major, major trade show.
明年我们打算办十八场活动。
We're doing 18 shows next year.
人生中很多事情，你根本没法预料会怎么发展。
It's weird how when you do things in life, you never know how they're going to play out.
所以我常劝人，多尝试些事，多认识些聪明人，积极地与人互动，真心帮别人。
So I tell people, just do a lot of stuff, meet a lot of smart people and just engage with people in a positive way and do good things for them.
那时候我一直在做宝可梦相关的事，对，但一点都没赚到钱。
You never know how it's going to come back and reward you because I'm like that whole time that like I was doing Pokemon stuff Mhmm.
那会儿完全没赚钱。
I didn't make any money from it.
就是图个开心。
It was just a fun thing.
我和社区里那些宝可梦大神们玩得特别开心。
I was having fun with the community, with all these big Pokemon people.
对我来说，根本没什么好处。
Like there was nothing in it for me at all.
一分钱都没赚到。
Like zero.
反而还倒贴钱了。
It cost me money.
你当时来参加那个派对了吗？
I threw that you Did you come to that party?
我去了。
I did.
我在现场，你给了我那些空盒子，我到现在还摆着呢。
I was I was there, and you gave me the empty boxes, and I still have them on display, by So
你知道吗，史蒂夫·阿oki 当时也和我一起搞了这个。
do know Steve Aoki did that with me.
是啊。
Mhmm.
那场派对花了我十万美金。
So that party cost me a $100,000.
所以你就想，克里斯，你花了一笔十万美元，却把三十万捐给了儿童慈善机构，自己啥也没得到。
So you're like, Chris, you just spent a $100,000 to give away $300,000 to kids charities and you got nothing from it.
那时候，我确实啥也没得到。
At the time, I got nothing from it.
但后来我认识了一个 guy，大家都觉得我为社区做这事特别善良。
But I ended up meeting a guy and everybody really thought I was I was very nice by doing that for the community.
他们就说，这人值得引荐给其他人。
And they were like, this is a guy that we can introduce to people.
结果我最后拿到了这个展会的大份额股份。
I ended up owning a big chunk of this trade show.
现在它已经发展成一个规模巨大的全球性展会，价值可能高得离谱。
Now it's a huge global trade show worth potentially insane amounts of money.
所以说，生活总会以意想不到的方式回报你。
So it's funny how life rewards you in weird ways.
你只需要走出去，动手去做，别光想。
You just gotta go out and do stuff and do things.
我特别好奇你是怎么做社会套利的，我觉得这真的很有趣。
I'm really curious when you do social arbitrage because I think that's really interesting.
你具体会关注哪些方面？
What do you look for specifically?
在你讲之前，我想说，我注意到Macy总能提前发现一些还没火起来的东西。
And before you go into that, I do wanna say that I've seen Macy, honestly, picks up on a lot of things before they become, like, mainstream.
她最近特别迷一种小玩偶，叫Smiskies，或者Sminskies？我以前根本没听过，但现在越来越火了。
One of the things that she's gotten really into that I've never heard of before, and they're gaining a lot of popularity, the little figurines called smiskies, sminskies?
你听说过这个吗？
You've heard of this?
知道。
Yeah.
啥我都听说过。
I've heard of everything.
我整天就干这个。
This is all I do.
她特别迷这个，还给我看了一些在Facebook和Reddit上的社群。
She's into this, and she's showing me these communities on like Facebook What's
叫什么来着？
it called?
还有Reddit。
And Reddit.
就是那种小玩偶，叫smiskies。
It's like a smiskies.
对。
Yeah.
Sminsky？
Sminsky?
在日本特别火，她说有个地方卖这个，我们一口气买了十二个。
They're big in Japan, and she was like, oh my god, this place sells smiskies, and we bought like 12 of them.
是啊。
Yeah.
有些商店特别火，每人限购两个。
And some of the stores, they're so popular that they limit them to, like, two per customer.
这些小玩偶里，还有一个特别稀有的。
These these little figurines, and, like, there's a rare one.
我当时就想，得赶紧抢，别让别人先下手了。
And and I'm thinking, like, this is something that before anyone else gets to it and like,
你得明白一件事。
So you know you have to understand something.
我们常说，华尔街是被操控的。
So Wall Street, we always say that Wall Street's rigged.
但操控的是对我们有利的那一方。
It's rigged in our favor.
有人总说华尔街偏向大机构和对冲基金，这让我特别生气。
Like that's and it pisses me off when people say that Wall Street's rigged for like institutions and hedge funds.
根本不是那么回事。
It's not.
这套系统其实是偏向我们的。
It's rigged in our favor.
直到今天，华尔街最顶尖的超额收益，说白了就是能拿到信用卡数据。
Wall Street still today, their best alpha, the very best alpha that Wall Street has is access to credit card data.
他们早就掌握这个数据了，都十多年了。
And they've had it for like a decade.
所以现在他们手上有这些数据，对吧？
So they get, I have this data now, right?
他们能拿到所有的信用卡消费记录，知道人们在买什么、卖什么。
So like they get all the credit card data and they know what people are buying and selling.
而且这些数据还滞后两周，也就是说，他们知道两周前大家在店里买了什么。
And like weeks behind, so like they know what people are buying and selling two weeks ago.
不是卖什么，是买了什么。
Like not selling, what they were buying in stores.
不过这数据挺乱的，质量一般，可靠性也不高。
But the data is dirty, it's not that great, it's not even that reliable.
这已经是他们最好的数据了。
That's the best data they have.
但我们有比他们更好的数据。
But we have better data than them.
我们有他们根本不愿意看的数据。
We have data that they are not willing to even look at.
而且这种数据他们根本不知道怎么用，因为他们的思维方式根本不是这样的。
And it's data that, that they wouldn't even know what to do with because it just, their heads don't work like this.
所以我们当时用了公司股票代码做标签。
So, you know, had a company ticker tags.
我们是第一家为对冲基金提供社交数据洞察的公司。
We were the first social data intelligence company for hedge funds.
我教对冲基金怎么解读社交数据、对话数据。
So I taught hedge funds how to interpret social data, conversational data.
我说的社交数据，其实就是对话数据。
Like, so when I say social data, what I mean is conversational data.
人们彼此交谈，真实的人在聊今晚要做什么、要去哪儿、想买什么、喜欢什么鞋子、喜欢哪些电影。
People speaking to each other, real humans speaking to each other about what they're doing that night, where they're going out, what they want to buy, what shoes they like, like what movies they like.
这些数据非常丰富，是投资者的黄金标准，因为人们在买东西之前会做什么？
That data is so rich and it is the gold standard for investors because what do people do before they buy something?
他们会先考虑要不要买。
They think about buying it.
还会跟别人讨论想买什么，对吧？
They talk about buying it, right?
过去六年我一直跟人说，最权威的数据来源就是抖音视频下的评论。
They converse with their friends on social like specifically the gold standard I tell everyone for the last six years has been comment data on TikTok videos.
早些年我分析的是推特，我们的智能平台跟推特有合作，能实时获取全部推文的10%。
Because back in the day I used to analyze Twitter and my intelligence platform, we had a deal with Twitter where we basically had 10% of every 10% of all the tweets in real time.
我们构建了一个包含140万个词组的索引，覆盖了地球上每一个品牌、每一种产品，以及所有可能跟上市公司相关的言论。
And we created an index of 1,400,000 word combinations that represented every brand and product on earth and anything that could be spoken that could be relevant to a publicly traded company.
然后我们持续监测这些话题的讨论热度。
And we would monitor the volume of conversation around that topic.
所以，如果人们在一个多月前或一年前就开始讨论你刚才提到的那件事，我能告诉你。
So I can tell you if people were starting to talk about that thing that you just mentioned, right, more than a month ago or a year ago.
我可以告诉你人们是否开始讨论iPhone，以及在新品发布前七天里，讨论iPhone的人数与之前五年同期相比有多少。
I can tell you if people are starting to talk about the iPhone or how many people talk about the iPhone in the seven days before its release compared to the five years before that in that seven day period.
因此，我们可以利用对话数据来衡量那些对上市公司至关重要的细分领域的关注度。
So using conversational data to measure interest in granular topics that are really important to publicly traded companies.
所以，这是全世界任何人都能获取的数据。
So that's data that anyone in the world has access to.
直接去TikTok上看看热门视频的评论就行。
Just go on TikTok and start reading comments of trending videos.
真的，照做就对了。
Literally just do that.
我平时就是这么干的。
That's what I do.
我就是靠这个赚到了这么多钱。
That's how I'm generating all this money.
我每天都在刷抖音的评论。
I'm reading comments of TikTok videos.
这就是我的信息优势。
That's my alpha.
你能举几个小一点的例子吗？现在你都看到些什么？
What are some of the things that you're seeing right now that like, smaller things.
在谈机器人之前，先给我们说几个具体的例子吧。
Like, before we go into robots and, like, like, give us small examples.
如果
If
对于普通观众来说，如果想从这次对话里学到点什么，应用到自己的投资策略里，是该集中押注少数几家公司，还是分散投更多公司？
the average viewer out there wants to try to take something away from this conversation, implement it in their own investing strategy, would they go and make bigger sized plays on fewer companies or more plays on more companies?
他们到底该怎么操作呢？
Like, how would they how would they implement
这么多。
so much.
其实你怎么交易都没那么重要。
Like, how you trade doesn't matter that much.
大家都太关注产品本身了。
Everyone focuses so much on the prod.
关键在于获取超额收益。
It's all about alpha.
就是要找到那些别人还没发现、但对上市公司有实际影响的信息。
It's about finding information that other people haven't found out yet that are that's meaningful to a publicly traded company.
就这么简单。
It's that simple.
我觉得Crocs现在的股价正在暴跌。
So I think Crocs are crashing right now.
所以我正在做空Crocs。
So I'm shorting Crocs.
我觉得Birkenstocks这个假期销售表现特别好，所以我买入了Birkenstocks。
I believe that Birkenstocks are doing really well this holiday season, so I'm long Birkenstock.
我觉得E.
I believe that e.
F.
F.
美妆行业的表现其实比市场认为的要好，所以我做多E.
Cosmetics is doing better than the market thinks they're doing right now, so I'm long e.
L.
L.
F.
F.
我觉得耐克目前的表现并不怎么样。
I believe that Nike is not doing so great right now.
所以我做空耐克。
So I'm short Nike.
我不是每件事都能猜对，但我主要靠日常对话中的信息来判断。
So I won't be right on all this stuff, but I'm getting this through mainly through conversational data.
我能看出人们在讨论什么。
I can see what people are talking about.
我能感受到他们是怎么讨论的。
I see how they're talking about it.
我能察觉到哪里有热度。
I see where the buzz is.
Vans 的表现真的很差。
Vans are doing really bad.
Vans 这个品牌背后的公司是 VF 集团，他们还拥有北面。
Vans is, you know, the company that owns Vans, VF Corp also owns North Face.
北面现在也不太行。
North Face isn't doing too good right now either.
他们想扭转局面，但效果并不理想。
And so they're trying to pull a turnaround, but the turnaround isn't working.
所以我一直在关注大家对 Vans 的讨论，结果发现根本没人提，完全没动静。
So I'm evaluating people speaking about vans and like no one's speaking about vans, it's just not happening.
所以我做空了VF公司。
So I'm short the F Corp.
这些是我目前参与的一些小交易，可能就持续几周。当然，我没把投资组合的10%押在上面，但这种操作方式其实是我过去一贯的做法，对吧？
So these are kind of the some of the little trades that I'm involved with right now that might only last a few weeks And no, I'm not putting 10% of my portfolio on them, but this is more historically what I've done, right?
我以前聊过一些有趣的交易，比如大约十年前，女性开始从有钢圈的内衣转向无钢圈的内衣。
You know, fun trades I've talked about in the past is there was a time about a decade ago when women started to transition from wired bras to bralettes.
无钢圈内衣就是没有钢圈的内衣。
Bralettes are bras without wires in them.
维多利亚的秘密这个品牌就是靠有钢圈的内衣做起来的。
Victoria's Secret made their brand on wired bras.
无钢圈内衣的价格大约是有钢圈内衣的三分之一。
Bralettes cost about a third of what a wired bra cost.
利润空间低多了，而且当无钢圈内衣开始流行的时候，维多利亚的秘密根本就没在卖。
The margins are much lower and Victoria's Secret didn't even sell them when they were coming into style.
明白吧？
Alright?
所以当女性开始偏好无骨文胸时，维多利亚的秘密受到了巨大冲击。
So it was hugely detrimental to Victoria's Secret when women wanted unstructured bras
那你又是怎么发现这一点的呢？
How do without you know this?
因为我注意到开始有人用‘bralette’这个词了。
I mean Because because Because I see people starting to use the word bralette.
我就想，‘bralette’这个词真的流行起来了吗？
And I said, is the word bralette?
哦，原来如此。
Oh, okay.
一旦你注意到这个小趋势，就会开始去查相关资料。
Now once you see the little bit, then you start researching it.
然后一查才发现，原来有那么多女性在讨论bralette。
Then you start research and you're like, oh my God, a lot of women are talking about bralettes.
事实上，那时候人们要么穿bralette，要么干脆不穿内衣。
In fact, at the time they were talking about either wearing bralettes or no bras.
这其实就是不穿内衣的感觉。
This is like doing that no bra.
所以当时有个误区，人们不想穿有钢圈的聚拢内衣，而维多利亚的秘密恰恰靠这种内衣建立了声誉，那种内衣可是畅销了二十年呢。
So it was like, it was like this error when people didn't want push up bras because Victoria's Secret built a reputation on wired push up bras, which were really popular for twenty years, right?
这对这个品牌来说真是致命的，一方面他们推出bralette太晚了，就算后来开始卖，bralette的市场定价又低，利润又薄，顾客每买一件bralette而不是普通内衣，他们的赚头就少一大截。
And so this is really detrimental for that brand because one, they were late to start selling bralettes and then even when they started selling bralettes, the market for bralettes were so cheap and the margins were so thin that every customer that bought a bralette instead of a bra, they made less money on.
所以他们真是全方位受挫。
So they were getting killed from every angle.
如果你是第一个察觉到这种趋势变化的人，还能把线索串起来，看谁会赢、谁会输，那赢家是谁？
So if you're the first to detect that change in the world and then connect the dots to who's going to win and who's going to lose, who is the winner?
Aerie。
Aerie.
Aerie是最早开始卖bralette的品牌之一。
Aerie was one of the first brands to start selling bralettes.
所以他们正好赶上了bralette这波潮流，赚到了。
So they benefited from the bralette trend.
维多利亚的秘密因为内衣趋势受到了冲击。
Victoria's Secret was harmed by the bralette trend.
这真是个挺奇怪的偶然例子。
So that's a really weird random example.
但过去十八年里，我积累了大概八十多个这样的案例。
But I have about 80 of those over the past eighteen years.
所以当你问克里斯，你是怎么做到的，我这些年靠两万美元赚了七千到九千万美元。
So the past eight when you say, Chris, how did you turn, you know, I've generated, I don't know, 70 or 80,000,000 or $90,000,000 from $20,000 over eighteen years.
对吧？
Right?
奇怪的是，要不是这些收益都是短期的，每年还得交税，而且我不断把钱取出来。
And the weird part is that if it wasn't for all those gains being short term and me paying taxes every year, like on all those gains and me pulling so much money.
我每年几乎把所有利润都取出来，投给了初创公司和私营企业。
I pulled almost all my profits out every year to invest in startups and private companies.
如果当初我把这些钱全留在证券账户里，一直保持那样的回报率，那两万美元现在至少得值十亿了。
If I would have just left all that money in my brokerage account and maintain those returns, that 20,000 today would be like a billion at least I think.
所以你问我是怎么做到的？
So, but you ask how do you do that?
我靠大约七十五笔交易，在八十年里完成了这一切。
I did that from roughly 75 trades that happened over eighty years.
就是那个bralette交易，就是这一笔。
The brawlette trade, this trade.
哦，天哪。
Oh, elf.
我刚提到过这个。
I just talked about elf.
我的第一笔相关交易，是当美妆博主杰夫里·斯塔尔拍了一段YouTube视频，讲他们家的E。
My first elf trade was when Jeffree Star, who's a beauty influencer did a YouTube video talking about their e.
L。
L.
F。
F.
这款底膏只要七美元。
Putty primer, is a $7 putty primer.
我知道你们可能不太懂什么是底膏，但就是那种底膏。
We, I know you guys don't know what primer is, but putty Yeah.
所以，就是最先涂的那个，对吧？
So, so It's what you put on first, right?
对。
Yeah.
所以是E。
So e.
L。
L.
F。
F.
那是个特别廉价的品牌，只在药房、CVS和沃尔玛这些地方卖，对吧？
Was this really junky brand that they only sold in drugstores, pharmacies, CVS and Walgreens, right?
那是个劣质品牌。
It was a junky brand.
后来杰夫里·斯塔尔拍了个视频，说这七美元的填缝底漆和五十美元的那款效果一样好。
And Jeffree Star comes out and does a video and says, this $7 putty primer is as good as this $50 putty primer.
他还专门拍了整段视频。
And he did this whole video.
你知道他视频看了多少次吗？
You know how many views it got?
足足一千二百多万次。
Like 12,000,000 views.
那你知道我后来干了什么吗？
So you know what I did?
我去了我家附近的沃尔格林药店，就站在填缝底漆货架旁边。
I went to the Walgreens by my house and I just stood there right there by the putty primer by the e.
F。
F.
我就站在那儿，一整天都有妈妈们和女孩们进来，问：你在这儿干嘛呢？
I just stood there and all day long moms came in and girls came in and they would just go, why are you here?
我们看了杰夫里·斯塔尔的那个视频。
We saw the Jeffree Star video.
哦，挺酷的。
Oh, cool.
你知道吗，他们不只是买了那个打底膏。
You know, I watched, they didn't just buy the putty primer.
他们买了打底膏，然后还会再挑一两样别的东西，从E区。
They bought the putty primer and then they would maybe get one or two other things from e.
F区。
F.
因为突然之间，E区的货都快被抢光了。
Because all of a sudden now e.
L区。
L.
F.
F.
是个挺酷的品牌，因为杰夫里·斯塔尔说它很酷。
Is like a cool brand because Jeffree Star said it was cool.
所以我真的去找了一位研究E品牌的华尔街分析师。
So I actually went out and I found a wall street analyst that covered e.
F.
F.
他是为四大银行之一负责化妆品板块的，我就随便打了个电话过去。
And cosmetics brands for one of the big four banks, and I called them up on the phone just randomly.
我说：嘿，我知道你负责这个领域。
I'm like, hey, you know, I I know you cover this sector.
我就想问问你，你看过杰夫里·斯塔尔的那个视频吗？
I just want to ask you, have you seen the Jeffree Star video?
他回我说：杰夫里·斯塔尔是谁？
He's like, who's Jeffree Star?
我直接把电话挂了。
I hung up the phone.
这就足够说明问题了。
That's all I needed to know.
对吧？
Right?
连华尔街的人都不知道，他们根本不上YouTube。
It's like, Street didn't even know they don't watch YouTube.
对吧？
Right?
那些高盛和美国银行的卖方分析师，根本不会去看Jeffree Star的化妆视频。
These guys are these sell side analysts at Goldman and B of A, they're not watching Jeffree Star makeup videos on YouTube.
我会看。
I am.
我的信息来源就是这些视频。
That's where I get my Elfa.
明白吧？
Okay?
就是这样，这才是正确的方法。
That, but that's how, but that's how you do it.
这才是正确的方法。
That's how you do it.
Elf股票当时是每股7美元，每股7美元。
So Elf was $7 a share, $7 a share.
我把所有钱都投进了Elf。
And I went all in on Elf.
可惜后来我卖掉了大部分持股。
And unfortunately I exited most of my e.
F。
F.
大概在14美元的时候卖的，也就是几个月后。
At about 14, which is like a couple months later.
差不多在几个月内就涨了一倍。
Like almost doubled pretty much in like a few months.
最搞笑的是，在财报电话会上，他们专门提到了E。
And the funniest part about it was that on the earnings call, they called out the e.
F。
F.
底漆腻子。
Primer putty.
我当时就想，这不就是底漆腻子嘛，管它是什么呢。
And I was like, it was a primer putty, primer whatever.
我心想，当你在那个时刻意识到这一点，真是特别有意思，我就把这叫作信息传播的节点。
I was like, man, it was so cool when you And that's what I call the point of information dissemination.
所以我投资，就是看准了我所说的‘信息不对称’的时机。
So I invest at a point of what I call information imbalance.
当你掌握了一些别人还不知道的信息，而在信息被传开、其他华尔街投资者都已知晓的时候——有时候就是通过财报电话会传开的——那就是关键点。
When you have information that the rest of the world doesn't have at the point of information parody, when that information has been disseminated amongst other investors in Wall Street, sometimes that could be through an earnings call.
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