财政部与债券市场的对决

NPR。

NPR.

财政部长斯科特·贝森特现在在金融媒体上可没少挨批。

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is taking a bit of a licking in the financial press right now.

一位曾和他共事的亿万富翁投资者在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇专栏文章，警告说贝森特正试图用钱来回避一场艰难对话。

A billionaire investor who used to work with him wrote an op ed in the Wall Street Journal warning that Bessent was trying to buy his way out of a difficult conversation.

对。

Yeah.

而且不同投资公司的高管都把贝森特的策略描述为自我设限、自我挫败，甚至说是金融压制。

And executives at different investment firms have described Bessent's strategy as self limiting, self defeating, even financial repression.

那这些人为什么偏偏针对斯科特·贝森特呢？

So why are these guys picking on Scott Bessent?

嗯，从下周开始，财政部计划回购的美国国债数量将比平时多得多，至少翻倍。

Well, starting next week, the Treasury plans to start buying back a lot more US government bonds than it usually does, at least double.

从市场的反应来看，投资者不仅不喜欢这个主意，甚至可能都不相信部长这么做的理由。

And judging by the reaction, not only do investors dislike this idea, they might not even believe the secretary's rationale for doing it.

这里是来自Planet Money的指标节目。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是Adrian Ma。

I'm Adrian Ma.

我是Waylon Wong。

And I'm Waylon Wong.

今天在节目中，我们会梳理这整件事，解释财政部到底想干什么，为什么可能会陷入与债券市场和美联储的三方对峙，以及这对普通借款人意味着什么。

Today on the show, we will unpack this whole mess to explain what the Treasury Department is trying to do, why it may be headed for a three way standoff with both bond markets and the Federal Reserve, and what this means for everyday borrowers.

这条消息来自Home Serve。

This message comes from Home Serve.

水管爆了，热水器坏了，空调罢工了，你找谁？

A burst pipe, a dead water heater, the AC calling it quits, who do you call?

Home Serve是处理意外房屋维修的简便方式，其计划覆盖了基本房主保险通常不保的项目。

Home Serve is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't.

不用手忙脚乱地找承包商，你只需打一个电话就能启动维修流程。

Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started.

现在就加入数百万信任Home Serve的客户吧。

Join the millions of customers who trust Home Serve right now.

访问homeserve.com/podcast，首年可享五折优惠。

Go to homeserve.com/podcast for 50% less your first year.

优惠相比续订价格。

Savings compared to renewal price.

佛罗里达州除外。

Void in Florida.

加拿大与关税、委内瑞拉与石油、伊朗战争，这些都是重大而复杂的故事，而且变化迅速。

Canada and tariffs, Venezuela and oil, the war in Iran, these are big, complicated stories, and they're changing fast.

为了保持领先，从NPR的Up First开始你的一天吧。

To stay ahead, start your day with Up First from NPR.

每个工作日醒来时都有新集数更新。

New episodes are available each weekday when you wake up.

所以当新闻在夜间发生变化时，你总能掌握最新信息。

So when news shifts overnight, you always have the latest info.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方，第一时间收听。

Up first on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

在我们解释财政部想做什么之前，先快速回顾一下美国政府债券市场，你知道，为了那些不是固定收益超级粉丝的人。

Before we explain what the Treasury Department is trying to do, let's do a quick recap of the US government bond market, you know, for those of us who aren't fixed income super fans.

韦伦，你是我认识的唯一一个固定收益超级粉丝。

Waylon, you are the only fixed income super fan I know.

对。

Yeah.

我们有好几十个呢。

There are dozens of us.

我告诉你。

I'll have you know.

好几十个。

Dozens.

所以美国政府出售称为国债的票据和债券，国债市场规模大约为30万亿美元。

So the US government sells notes and bonds called treasuries, and the treasury market is around $30,000,000,000,000.

它是全球金融市场的基石，这些债券被认为是最安全的投资之一。

It is a bedrock of global financial markets, and these bonds are considered some of the safest investments out there.

那是因为国债本质上就是借条。

That's because treasuries are essentially IOUs.

购买这些债券的投资者是把钱借给政府，而美国政府是一个可靠的低风险借款人。

Investors that buy these bonds are loaning money to the government, and the US government is a reliable low risk borrower.

国债投资者非常有信心能拿回他们的钱。

Treasury investors are super confident that they'll get their money back.

现在市面上有各种各样的国债。

Now there are all kinds of treasuries out there.

有些两年到期，有些五年或十年，一直延伸到二十年和三十年。

Some come due in two years, others in five years or ten years, all the way out to twenty and thirty years.

这些国债以不同的回报率或收益率支付给投资者。

And these treasuries pay out at different returns or yields to investors.

通常，短期国债，比如两年期的，支付的回报比长期国债，比如三十年期的，要少。

Typically, a shorter dated treasury, like the two year, pays out less than a longer dated one, like the thirty year.

埃金杜·乌梅是俄亥俄州迈阿密大学的经济学家。

Ejindu Ume is an economist at Miami University in Ohio.

大家都叫他EJ。

He goes by EJ.

他说，这些长期债券往往收益率更高，因为存在不确定性因素。

He says that these longer dated bonds tend to have higher yields because of the uncertainty factor.

如果我要持有三十年的债券，这期间可能发生很多事情。

A lot can happen I'm holding on to a thirty year bond.

对吧？

Right?

谁知道经济会变成什么样？

Who knows where the economy is gonna be?

谁知道债券市场会变成什么样？

Who knows where the bond market is gonna be?

所以投资者希望为额外的风险获得补偿。

That wanna be compensated for the additional risk.

而且最近，投资者对长期国债要求更高的回报。

And lately, investors are demanding more compensation for these longer dated treasuries.

十年、二十年和三十年期国债的收益率已经触及了自2000年代初以来的最高点。

These yields on the ten, twenty, and thirty year bonds have touched highs not seen since the early two thousands.

EJ说，这些高收益率背后有几个原因。

EJ says there are a few reasons for these high yields.

一个原因是投资者预期通胀会持续下去。

One is that investors are expecting that inflation will persist.

另一个原因是现在市场上有很多债券在出售，不只是美国政府的。

Another is that there's a lot of bonds for sale right now and not just from the U.

美国

S.

政府。

Government.

科技公司也在发行自己的债券来筹集资金，用于人工智能建设。

Tech companies are selling their own bonds to raise money for their AI build outs.

当市场上有很多债券可以选择时，政府就必须提供更高的利率来吸引投资者，尤其是当公司债券看起来和政府债券一样安全的时候。

When there's a lot of bonds to choose from, the government has to offer a higher rate to attract investors, especially when a corporate bond seems maybe as risk free as a government one.

我可以买微软的债券。

I can buy a Microsoft bond.

我觉得它们非常非常安全。

I think they're really, really safe.

这样一来，相比买政府债券，我更倾向于买公司债券，所以对政府债券的需求就减少了，这又给收益率带来了上行压力。

By then, as opposed to buying the government bond, and so less demand for the government security, again, puts upward pressure on the yields.

这些就是目前国债收益率偏高的几个原因。

Those are some of the reasons yields on treasuries are high at the moment.

三十年期国债收益率已经超过5%。

The thirty year is at over 5%.

EJ表示，这对政府来说是个问题，因为政府的债务刚刚突破了40万亿美元。

And EJ says this is a problem for the administration because the government's debt just hit $40,000,000,000,000.

美国背负着巨额债务，而国债收益率高企意味着借贷成本更高。

The US has a huge pile of debt, and high yields on treasuries means higher borrowing costs.

高收益率对我们普通人，以及任何想借钱的人来说，也可能是个问题。

High yields can also be a problem for you and me and really anyone who wants to borrow money.

因为国债被视为无风险资产，它们的收益率就成了经济中其他利率的基础。

Because treasuries are considered risk free, their yields are the base for other interest rates in the economy.

就拿三十年期房贷来说。

Take the thirty year mortgage.

它的利率是基于十年期国债的。

The interest rate for that is based on the ten year treasury.

所以这些高收益率给斯科特·贝森特带来了一个难题，尤其是特朗普总统已经明确表示他希望降低利率。

So these high yields pose a dilemma for Scott Bessent, especially because president Trump has made his desire for lower interest rates very well known.

财政部长该怎么办呢？

What's the treasury secretary to do?

好了，现在该谈谈财政部公布的这个计划了。

Well, now it is time to talk about this plan that the treasury department unveiled.

从下周开始，它计划将长期美国国债的回购规模至少翻倍。

Starting next week, it plans to at least double the size of its buyback program for longer dated US government bonds.

没错。

That's right.

现在财政部已经有一个回购这些债券的项目。

Now the Treasury Department already has a program where it buys back these bonds.

这样做是为了帮助这些债券的市场平稳运行。

It does this to help the market for these bonds to run smoothly.

当财政部回购比如二十年和三十年的债券时，它基本上就像一个热心的买家。

When the Treasury Department buys back, say, twenty and thirty year bonds, it's basically acting as an eager customer.

它增加了对这些债券的需求，这导致价格上涨，收益率下降。

It pumps up demand for these bonds, and that causes prices to go up and yields to come down.

财政部计划的问题在于，斯科特·贝森特并没有在谈论降低收益率。

The problem with the Treasury Department's plan is that Scott Bessent is not talking about lowering yields.

他告诉CNBC，他的部门这样做是为了提高长期债券的流动性。

He told CNBC that his department is doing this to improve liquidity for longer dated bonds.

这是金融术语，意思是确保市场上有足够的买家和卖家。

That's financial jargon for making sure there are enough buyers and sellers in the market.

对。

Right.

所以这和降低收益率、降低利率没什么关系。

So nothing to do with lowering yields and interest rates.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，这是财政部长说的。

I mean, that is what the treasury secretary is saying.

但市场对这个回购公告反应冷淡，甚至充满敌意，这可能表明他们并不买账。

But the market's chilly, even hostile reaction to this buyback announcement could be a signal that they're not buying it.

他们不买回购的账。

They're not buying the buyback.

他们不买回购的账。

They're not buying the buyback.

他们不相信他。

They don't believe him.

这是根据埃里克·雅各布森的说法。

And that is according to Eric Jacobsen.

他在研究公司晨星专门负责固定收益。

He specializes in fixed income at the research firm Morningstar.

总统一直非常直言不讳地希望看到利率下降。

The president has been very outspoken about wanting to see interest rates lower.

而作为财政部长，实际上，斯科特·贝森特是服务于总统的。

And as the treasury secretary, in effect, Scott Bessent serves at the pleasure of the president.

所以尽管财政部表示这项活动是为了解决国债市场的流动性问题，但世界其他地方很多人认为这是一个政治决定，试图压低利率以取悦总统。

So even though the treasury has said that this activity is meant to address liquidity in the treasury market, a lot of the rest of the world believes that it's a political decision to try and keep interest rates down to keep the president happy.

当财政部宣布扩大回购计划时，国债收益率短暂下降，但随后又回升了。

When the treasury announced the expanded buyback program, treasury yields went down for a little bit, but then they went back up again.

埃里克将这种来回波动视为投资者拒绝财政部计划的信号。

Eric took this round trip as a sign that investors are rejecting the treasury's plan.

他指出债券投资者反抗财政部的两个主要原因。

And he points to two big reasons why bond investors are rebelling against the Treasury.

第一，回购并不能解决让投资者紧张的根本经济状况。

Number one, the buybacks don't tackle the underlying economic conditions, making investors nervous.

比如国家庞大的债务问题。

Concerns like the country's yawning debt.

40万亿美元，国债规模比整个美国国债市场还要大。

$40,000,000,000,000, the national debt is bigger than the entire market for U.

美国

S.

国债。

Treasuries.

通过减少支出来解决这个问题。

Address it by spending less.

这才是他们想看到的。

That's what they wanna see.

而他们认为，财政部试图干预利率是在回避责任，想用其他手段来应对，而不是真正实行财政纪律。

Whereas they think and see that the Treasury trying to act on interest rates is a way of skirting that responsibility and trying to handle it by other means than actually having some fiscal discipline.

其中一部分就是尽量别在市场上插手太多。

And part of that is keep trying to keep, from mucking around in markets too much.

第二个原因是，很多投资者不希望财政部在债券和利率上动手脚。

The second reason is that a lot of investors don't want the treasury mucking around with bonds and interest rates.

这个角色历来属于美联储。

That role has historically belonged to the Federal Reserve.

那才是负责货币政策的机构。

That's the institution in charge of monetary policy.

历史上也有过政府回购债券来压低收益率的时候。

There have been other times in history when the government bought back bonds to push yields down.

1961年肯尼迪政府时期就发生过，当时叫“扭曲操作”，名字取自一首胖胖的切克尔的歌。

It happened in 1961 during the Kennedy administration, during something known as Operation Twist, named after a chubby Checker song.

那首歌很火。

A banger.

这个梗在1961年可能更贴切。

Reference probably made more sense in 1961.

大金融危机之后也发生过这种情况。

It also happened after the great financial crisis.

而且在这两次事件中，都是美联储在行动，而不是财政部。

And in both of these instances, it was the Fed that acted, not the Treasury.

而在大衰退的情况下，经济确实陷入了困境。

And in the case of the Great Recession, the economy was in trouble.

美联储想压低利率，让个人和企业重新开始借贷。

The Fed wanted to push down interest rates to get people and businesses borrowing again.

但今天的情况并不是这样。

That is not the situation we're in today.

失业率按历史标准来看很低，而通胀却高于美联储的目标。

Unemployment is low by historical standards, and inflation is running above the Fed's target.

上周，美联储主席凯文·沃什表示，如果通胀不回落，美联储“还有工作要做”。

Last week, Fed chairman Kevin Warsh said that if inflation doesn't come down, the Fed would, quote, have work to do.

是像加息那样的工作吗？

Work like hiking interest rates?

是的。

Yeah.

这就是市场对美联储立场的解读。

That is how the markets are reading the Fed's stance.

现在的问题是，财政部长是不是在和美联储对着干？

The question right now is, is the treasury secretary working at cross purposes to the Fed?

如果财政部长试图压低利率，那他实际上就是在给美联储添麻烦。

If the treasury secretary is acting to try and lower interest rates, then he is, in effect, making their job more difficult.

财政部和美联储之间的对峙对投资者信心和市场都不利。

A treasury versus Fed showdown would be bad for investor confidence and the markets.

财政部和债券市场的对峙也一样不利吗？

So would a treasury versus bond market showdown?

如果贝森特部长和市场玩起胆小鬼游戏，我觉得他可能多少会先让步，因为他不可能一直跟市场对着干。

If secretary Bessent and the markets come together in a game of chicken, I think he's probably in some ways gonna blink first in the sense that he's not gonna fight the markets forever.

市场有很多办法来打击财政部，我们可能还是得避开这些。

There are a lot of ways for the market to sort of beat up on the treasury, if you will, and we probably wanna stay away from

如果可能的话，我们最好避开。

that if we can.

债券市场从来都不缺热闹。

Never a dull moment in the bond market.

对。

Yeah.

阿德里安，我们最终还是把你变成了固定收益爱好者。

We made a fixed income enthusiast out of you after all, Adrian.

固定收益爱好者。

Fixed income enthusiast.

把这个印在帽子上。

Put that on a hat.

是的。

Yes.

印在杯子上。

A mug.

Shop.npr.org。

Shop.npr.org.

把这个印在保险杠贴纸上。

Put that on a bumper sticker.

如果你认为债券市场是全球经济的基石，就按喇叭。

Hog if you think the bond market is the bedrock of the global economy.

嘿。

Hey.

听众朋友们，很多人联系我们说，你们错过了我们提供的一些东西，比如NPR商店的折扣、现场活动通知，甚至可能是你们一直等待的那集节目。

You listeners, a lot of you have been reaching out to tell us that you missed out on something we offered, like discounts for the NPR store or live event announcements or maybe even the episode you have been waiting for.

其实，你们知道怎么跟上我们所有的公告。

Well, you know how to keep up with all of our announcements.

请点击关注按钮。

Please hit the follow button.

这对节目有帮助。

It helps the show.

这甚至可能让算法更愿意把我们推荐给未来的听众。

It maybe even juices the algorithms to show us off to future listeners.

我是说，谁知道算法是怎么运作的，但就给我们点个关注吧。

I mean, maybe who knows how algorithms work, but just give us a follow.

本期节目由安吉尔·科雷托斯制作，特拉维斯·哈根负责工程。

This episode was produced by Angel Corretoes with engineering by Travis Hagen.

事实核查由谢拉·华雷斯完成，编辑是朱莉娅·里奇。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Julia Ritchie.

凯特·金卡南是本节目的编辑，《指标》是NPR的一档节目。

Kate Kinkanan is the show's editor, the indicator is a production of NPR.

嘿。

Hey.

你知道你脑子里那个烦人的声音吗？

You know that nagging voice in your head?

就是那个让你放下手机、别再刷负面消息的声音。

The one telling you to put the phone down and stop doomscrolling?

好了，是时候了。

Well, it's time.

抬起头来。

Look up.

每天来一次好奇心小憩，收听NPR的科学播客《Shortwave》。

Take a daily curiosity break with shortwave, NPR science podcast.

让你的思绪飘到外太空的边缘，或者好奇海底深处藏着什么，全部在十五分钟内搞定。

Let your mind wander to the edges of outer space or wonder about what's lurking in the depths of the sea floor all in under fifteen minutes.

《Shortwave》，你每天的脑力重启。

Shortwave, your daily mental reset.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

你好。

Hi there.

我是布列塔尼·卢斯。

I'm Brittany Luce.

不是吹牛，我主持的播客真的特别棒。

And not to brag, but I host a really fabulous podcast.

节目叫《It's Been a Minute》。

It's called it's been a minute.

我超喜欢做这个节目，我觉得你也会爱听的。

I love making it, and I think you'll love listening to it.

过去一年里，有几十万听众一直在收听。

Over the last year, hundreds of thousands of listeners have been tuning in.

我得说，如果你还没听过，那你可亏大了。

And I gotta say, if you haven't yet, you're missing out.

今天就收听NPR的《It's Been a Minute》播客吧。

Listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast from NPR today.