借钱投资！能出什么岔子？

NPR。

NPR.

嘿，瑞奇。

Hey, Ricky.

嘿，韦伦。

Hey, Waylon.

告诉我，如果你想投资100美元的苹果股票，但你只有50美元，你能怎么做？

Tell me, what could you do if you wanted to invest a $100 in Apple stock, but you only had $50?

哦，我知道答案。

Oh, I know the answer.

你说的是保证金交易。

You are talking about margin trading.

对吧？

Right?

完全正确。

Absolutely.

我可以在券商那里开一个保证金账户，把我的50美元放进去，然后他们可以把另外50美元借给我，当然，利率很高，然后我就可以买那只股票了。

I could set up a margin account with my brokerage firm, put my $50 in there, and then they could lend me the other $50, of course, at a very high interest rate, and then I could buy that stock.

我们来干几笔日内交易吧。

Let's rip some day trades.

没错。

Absolutely.

对吧？

Right?

投资者

Investors

现在美国股市的投资者经常进行这种保证金交易。

of The US stock market are making a lot of these margin trades these days.

借款总额创下了历史新高，超过一万五千亿美元。

The total amount of borrowing is at an all time record level over $1,500,000,000,000.

这比一年前增长了50%。

That's up by 50% from a year ago.

哇。

Woof.

这杠杆可真够大的。

That is a lot of leverage.

这里是《金钱星球》的《指标》节目。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是韦伦·王。

I'm Waylon Wong.

我是里基·穆尔维。

And I'm Ricky Mulvey.

今天节目中，我们会聊聊当保证金交易出问题时，这些押注是如何被平掉的，以及为什么韩国由债务推动的股市崩盘可能给美国股市敲响警钟。

Today on the show, when margin trading goes wrong, how these bets unwind, and why a debt fueled stock market crash in South Korea could be a cautionary tale for The US stock market.

这条消息来自Wise，一个在全球范围内管理资金的明智选择。

This message comes from Wise, the smart way to manage your money around the world.

使用Wise，你可以以中间市场汇率，用超过40种货币进行转账、消费和收款。

With Wise, you can send, spend, and receive money in over 40 currencies at the mid market rate.

了解更多信息，请访问wise.com。

Learn more at wise.com.

适用条款和条件。

Ts and cs apply.

工人阶级。

The working class.

这是政客们最近经常挂在嘴边的词，但我们真的知道它到底是什么意思吗？

It's a term politicians throw around a lot these days, but do we know what it actually means?

中期选举即将到来，在《It's Been a Minute》节目中，我们讨论了这些候选人真正在谈论谁。

Midterm elections are coming up, and on It's Been a Minute, we discuss who these candidates are really talking about.

在YouTube上观看完整的《It's Been a Minute》剧集，或在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方收听。

Watch the full It's Been a Minute episode on YouTube or listen in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

《Are we doomed》探讨大问题。

Are we doomed looks at big problems.

没有人会理性地想要核战争。

Nobody would rationally want nuclear war.

这说法不太对。

That's not quite correct.

我们怎么增加一点阻力呢？

How can we add friction?

把发射密码装进某人的胸腔里，你得杀了他才能取出来。

Put the launch codes inside somebody's chest cavity, and you have to kill them to get them out.

我们完蛋了吗？

Are we doomed?

解决人类面临的最大威胁。

Solving humanity's biggest threats.

NPR广播网的一部分。

Part of the NPR network.

在你听播客的任何地方都能收听。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

美国券商的保证金债务总额现在已经超过了全美国信用卡债务的总和。

The amount of margin debt at US brokerages is now greater than the total amount of American credit card debt.

现在借钱炒股的钱，比我们在运通卡上欠的还多。

More money is being borrowed to play with the stock market than we've racked up on our Amexes.

用别人的钱赚钱确实很爽。

And making profits with other people's money is great.

但问题出在市场下跌的时候。

The problem is when markets go down.

那时候你还是得把贷款和利息给还上。

You still have to cover that loan and the interest.

如果股价跌得太厉害，你有两个选择。

If the price of the stock goes down too much, you have two choices.

这位是希瑟·特克斯，耶鲁大学的金融学教授。

That's Heather Tukes, a finance professor at Yale.

你可以卖掉股票来偿还部分贷款，或者往账户里追加保证金，也就是往你的保证金账户里注入更多资金。

You can either sell the stock to start to pay down that loan or post more margin to your to your account that is infuse more capital into your margin account.

换句话说，希瑟的意思是，要么多拿点现金出来，要么被迫卖出投资品来还债。

In other words, Heather says, put up more cash or be forced to sell investments to cover the loan.

在美国，投资者几乎可以对任何股票使用保证金交易，但在印度情况不同。

In The US, investors can use margin trading for pretty much any stock, but it's different in India.

所以希瑟和她的合著者决定研究一下那里的保证金交易是如何运作的。

So Heather and her coauthor decided to take a look at how margin trades play out there.

在印度，监管机构在某种程度上有点像学者，他们设计的规则让研究这个问题变得容易得多。

In India, the regulators were, in some ways, kinds of academics and that they designed rules that made studying this question, a lot easier.

更容易是因为在印度，可以用保证金购买的股票和不能购买的股票之间有一条分界线。

Easier because there's a dividing line in India between stocks that can be bought with margin and others that can't.

她说，这使它成为一个进行自然实验的好地方，用来研究保证金交易是否会导致市场不稳定。

She says that made it a great place for a natural experiment on whether margin trades cause market instability.

他们发现的结果是，确实，保证金很重要，尤其是在金融危机期间。

And what they found was, yes, margin mattered, especially during a financial crisis.

正是在那些下跌阶段，这种放大效应出现了。

It's during those downswings that we get this amplification.

在危机期间，保证金股票组合的跌幅远大于非保证金股票组合。

The margin basket of stocks went down significantly more than the basket of non margin stocks during the crisis.

很多融资融券的卖家被迫卖出投资来偿还贷款。

Many margin sellers are forced to sell their investments to cover loans.

这种被迫抛售加剧了整体损失。

This forced selling helped amplify overall losses.

类似的情况刚刚在韩国股市也发生了。

A similar phenomenon just happened in the South Korean stock market.

对。

Right.

那边的投资者对两家公司很感兴趣，SK海力士和三星。

Investors there are excited about two companies, SK Hynix and Samsung.

它们为AI数据中心生产存储芯片。

They make memory chips for AI data centers.

而且你知道，你在节目里也讲过，现在这些芯片的需求非常大。

And, you know, as you've covered on the show, lots of demand for these chips right now.

SK海力士和三星主导了韩国股市。

SK Hynix and Samsung dominate South Korea's stock market.

随着更多投资者对他们的芯片感到兴奋，这两家公司的价值一路飙升。

The value of both companies skyrocketed as more investors got excited about their chips.

这个东西规模太大了，而且发展速度快得惊人。

This thing is so big and it's moving so fast.

这是富达投资全球宏观策略总监尤里恩·蒂默。

That's Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments.

半导体行业的盈利在过去一年里翻了三倍。

Semiconductor earnings have tripled in the last year.

真的是太疯狂了。

Like, it's it's crazy.

一切都像是在快进，而且比我们通常在繁荣萧条周期中看到的还要多出好几个维度。

Everything is sort of in fast forward and is just multiple dimensions more of what we might typically see in in a boom bust cycle.

今年早些时候，韩国批准了单一股票杠杆ETF的交易。

Earlier this year, South Korea legalized single stock leveraged ETFs.

这些ETF从表面上看和普通ETF没什么两样，但内部却包含了额外的杠杆、期货以及各种金融操作手法，用来放大你的投资收益。

These look just like a normal ETF on the outside, except there's extra leverage, futures, and various other financial tricks on the inside to multiply your returns.

这能出什么问题呢？

What could possibly go wrong?

对。

Yeah.

有风险。

There's a downside.

如果ETF价值下跌，损失也会被放大。

Is that if the ETF loses value, the losses are also magnified.

这些投资在美国自2022年起就已经合法了。

Now these investments have been legal in The US since 2022.

韩国想跟上，所以投资者把钱投进了股市。

South Korea wanted to keep up, so investors cut money in its stock market.

随着半导体公司价值增长，这些ETF在韩国越来越受欢迎，某些日子占韩国交易所交易量的20%。

These ETFs became more popular in Korea as the value of those semiconductor companies grew, making up 20% of trading on the South Korean exchange on some days.

Jurrien并不看好这些工具。

Jurrien is not a fan of these tools.

我把它们称为自我毁灭的武器。

I call them weapons of self destruction.

我真搞不懂监管机构为什么会批准这些东西。

I I don't know why regulators, approve these things.

他的悲观看法在韩国至少得到了印证。

His pessimistic view seems to hold in Korea at least.

韩国股市的价值一度暴跌了40%。

The value of its stock market plummeted 40% at one point.

公司依然预计内存芯片需求旺盛，但投资者没那么兴奋了。

The company still estimate booming demand for their memory chips, but investors got a little less excited.

杠杆押注开始平仓，保证金交易者被迫卖出投资。

The leverage bet started to unwind and margin traders had to sell their investments.

超过3%的韩国成年人收到了追加保证金通知。

More than 3% of the South Korean adult population received a margin call.

他们的券商说，嘿，你得卖掉一些东西或者再拿出点现金来覆盖这些贷款。

Their brokers saying, hey, you need to sell something or put up more cash to cover these loans.

这次抛售似乎和这些公司的未来前景关系不大。

The sell off seem to have little to do with the future prospects of these companies.

SK海力士过去一年的营收增长了两倍多，而且芯片需求依然旺盛。

SK Hynix saw revenue more than triple over the past year, and it has plenty of demand for its chips.

你看看这些公司的基本面，简直好得不得了。

You look at the fundamentals of these companies, they're they're fabulous.

你知道吗？

You know?

但问题就在于你冒了太大风险，一旦用了杠杆，就可能血本无归。

But so it's just a matter of you're in over your skis, and when you use leverage, you can lose all your capital.

Jurrien其实是在说，很多韩国投资者承担了太多风险，结果把账户彻底搞爆了。

Jurrien is essentially saying that many South Korean investors took on too much risk, which completely blew up their accounts.

高盛估计，大约有36万个券商账户被迫清仓所有投资来还债。

Goldman Sachs estimated that about 360,000 brokerage accounts were forced to sell all of their investments to cover their debts.

据彭博社报道，这些账户中大多数属于35岁以下的年轻人。

The majority of these accounts belong to people under the age of 35, according to Bloomberg.

年轻人觉得自己能承受很大的风险，可能在金融市场的经验相对较少。

Younger people felt confident taking on a lot of risk and maybe had less experience in financial markets.

所以他们受到了冲击。

That's who got hurt.

这对美国来说有什么教训吗？

Now is there a lesson for The United States?

正如我们之前讨论的，我们现在看到了创纪录的保证金债务水平。

As we've discussed, we're seeing a record level of margin debt here.

不过有意思的是。

But here's the interesting thing.

起初大家对这些杠杆ETF兴趣不大，但过去几年里需求突然猛增。

While there was limited interest and leveraged ETFs initially, in the last couple of years, it spiked.

美联储其实能对此采取一些措施，至少针对保证金贷款这块是这样。

And the Federal Reserve can do something about this, at least when it comes to margin debt.

这家银行有个鲜为人知的职能。

The bank has a little known job.

银行基本上是在告诉投资者，你口袋里需要有多少钱才能借到一美元。

The bank essentially tells investors how much money do you need in your pocket to borrow a dollar.

对。

Right.

所以如果我们回到一开始那个例子，如果你有50美元想投资苹果，但你想总共投100美元，美联储可以说，好吧。

So if we go back to that example we started with, if you have $50 to invest in Apple and you wanna invest a $100 total, the Fed could say, okay.

我们应该更谨慎一些。

We should be more cautious.

你的券商可以借给你，比如说，25美元，而不是50美元。

Your brokerage firm can loan you, say, $25, not $50.

美联储在大萧条之后的几年里，一直在调整这个要求。

The Federal Reserve played around with this requirement in the years after the Great Depression.

有趣的是，那次崩盘正是因为保证金债务飙升催生了泡沫。

Interestingly, that crash came after soaring margin debt fueled a bubble.

美联储今天应该介入吗？

Should the Fed get involved today?

这就更复杂了。

This is more complicated.

是的。

Yes.

保证金债务处于历史高位，但Jurrien说它的增长速度不如过去那么快。

Margin debt is at a historic level, but Jurrien says it's not growing as fast as it has in the past.

他还说，与整个股市规模相比，债务规模随时间变化不大。

And he says the size of the debt compared to the size of the overall stock market hasn't changed much over time.

你知道，增长率大约是53%，这确实很高。

You know, the growth rate is about 53%, which is certainly a lot.

但我把它与市场上非常投机狂热的时期相比。

But I compare to periods of very speculative fervor in the market.

当然，2000年就浮现在脑海中。

Of course, 2000 comes to mind.

那当然是互联网泡沫，当时保证金债务的变化率是81%。

That was, of course, the Internet bubble, and the rate of change of margin debt then was 81%.

所以速度快得多。

So considerably faster.

Jurrien认为我们处于黄色区域，还没到恐慌的地步。

Jurrien believes we are in a yellow zone, not a point of panic.

所以我才说，你不能只看市场情绪，基本面故事得出现裂痕才行。

That's why I'm saying that you gotta look, you know, not just at the sentiment, but something has to crack in the fundamental story.

美联储自1974年以来就没动过这些投资贷款要求。

The Fed hasn't touched these investing loan requirements since 1974.

不过我们还是好奇，现在是不是重新审视这个要求的好时机，拿出这个几十年没用过的工具。

Still, we wondered if now was a good time to revisit this requirement and break out a tool it hasn't used in decades.

这会减缓股市新增债务的速度。

This would slow down the amount of new debt in the stock market.

我们联系了美联储的新闻办公室，但没人愿意公开接受采访。

We reached out to the Fed's press office but could not get anyone to speak to us on the record.

Jurrien Timmer认为，美联储可能出于一个简单原因而不想介入保证金交易。

Jurrien Timmer believes the Fed may not wanna get involved with the margin trades for a simple reason.

我觉得美联储一般不会去管股市或者泡沫这种事，因为没人能预测这些东西。

I think the Fed generally does not get into the stock market slash bubble business to figure nobody can predict these things.

记得吗，格林斯潘在96年就特别指出纳斯达克是泡沫，结果它又涨了四年。

Remember, Greenspan especially called the Nasdaq a bubble in '96, and it ran for four more years.

所以我觉得他们至少是挺谦虚的，知道自己没法把握这些时机。

So, I think they're at least are humble enough to to know they they can't time these things.

看出泡沫在形成很容易。

Spotting a bubble forming is easy.

但要摸准泡沫破裂的时间就难多了。

Timing the pop is much more difficult.

你不想关掉一个可能还能火一阵子的派对。

You don't wanna shut down a party that could keep rocking for a while.

韦伦，我对这周末UFC比赛的结果很有信心。

Waylon, I feel really confident about the outcome of a UFC fight this weekend.

哦，不会吧。

Oh, no.

不过，我身上只有20美元。

However, I only have $20 in my pocket.

哦。

Oh.

所以我在想

So I was wondering

那Polymarket能借你这笔钱吗？

Can Polymarket lend you this money?

我……

I'm

你钱包里现在有多少钱？

not How lending much money do you have in your wallet right now?

韦兰银行。

The Bank of Weyland.

我不带现金。

I don't carry cash.

我得告诉你。

I'll have you know.

本期节目由科里·布里奇斯制作，特拉维斯·哈根负责工程技术支持。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Travis Hagen.

事实核查由西耶拉·胡亚雷斯完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

基辛·坎农负责节目的剪辑，而《指标》是 NPR 出品的一档节目。

Kicking Cannon edits the show, and The Indicator is a production of NPR.

注意，这里是来自NPR科学播客《短波》的一则公益提示。

Attention, a PSA from Shortwave, NPR's science podcast.

你真的需要多留意自己的排便情况。

You need to be paying more attention to your poop.

我真心觉得，我们对谈论排便这件事存在的深层羞耻感，跟早期结直肠癌病例的增加是有关系的。

I really do think that this deep stigma we have about talking about pooping is tied to these early onset colorectal cancer cases.

在《短波》节目中，我们将告诉你该注意哪些信号，以及如何解读藏在粪便里的秘密信息。

What to watch out for and how to decode the secret messages hidden in your poop on Shortwave.

可以在NPR应用或其他播客平台上收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

好的。

Okay.

比如你开车上班、散步、或者在健身房，反正就是想清空一下大脑的时候。

So you're driving to work or you're on a walk or you're at the gym or whatever, and you just need to clear your head.

那就是按下NPR“全歌考虑”节目播放键的最佳时机。

That's the perfect time to hit the play button on NPR's all songs considered.

这不是新闻。

It's not the news.

也不是工作或其他让你烦心的事情。

It's not work or whatever else is weighing you down.

只是和好朋友一起享受美好时光和美妙音乐。

It's just a good time with good friends and great tunes.

每周二在NPR音乐播客中收听“全歌考虑”节目。

Listen to all songs considered every Tuesday in the NPR music podcast.