ICE逮捕如何制造“恐惧经济”

NPR。

NPR.

和詹姆斯·诺特一起漫步在圣安东尼奥的东区，你会发现这里有很多夫妻店。

Take a stroll through San Antonio's East Side with James Norte, and what you'll find is a community with a lot of mom and pop businesses.

你会看到从自行车店、古董店到墨西哥卷饼店和洗衣店，应有尽有。

You will see everything from bike shops, antiques to taquerias and lavenderias.

但你也会看到创新正在发生，比如一家小型科技初创公司就在书店旁边。

But you'll also see just innovation happening, whether it be a small tech startup next to, a bookstore.

詹姆斯负责一个名为“圣安东尼奥东区发展”的经济开发组织。

James heads up an economic development organization called San Antonio for Growth on the East Side.

如果你在寻找一个可以生活、工作、娱乐和祈祷的充满机会的社区，德克萨斯州的圣安东尼奥就是你的城市。

If you're looking for a community of opportunity where you can live and work and play and pray, San Antonio, Texas is your town.

你以前说过这套话吗？

Have you given that spiel before?

我可能说过类似的话。

I've probably given a version of that spiel.

你看，你学我说话。

See, you copied my element.

对吧？

Right?

所以我现在就是凭感觉来。

So now I'm just, like, going off of vibes.

你知道吗？

You know what?

还挺管用的。

It's working.

我现在想去圣安东尼奥边吃玉米饼边逛古董店，然后再去书店。

Now I wanna go antiquing while eating a taco and then go to a bookstore in San Antonio.

我也是。

So do I.

那咱们就安排上吧。

Let's make it happen.

是的。

Yeah.

尽管詹姆斯很热情，他说在过去一年左右的时间里，有一件事给这个以拉丁裔为主的社区蒙上了阴影，那就是移民和海关执法局的存在越来越明显。

Despite James' enthusiasm, he says one thing has cast a shadow over this mostly Latino community over the last year or so, and that is the growing presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

比如，我有一个朋友是修剪草坪的，他是美国公民。

For example, I have a friend who mows lawns, and so he is a US citizen.

他不会说西班牙语，但他是拉丁裔。

He does not speak Spanish, but he is Latino.

所以他非常担心，因为他的长相，有一天他在修剪草坪时可能会被移民和海关执法局带走。

And so he is actively afraid that because of how he looks, he might one day be mowing a lawn and could be picked up by ICE.

这里是《Planet Money》的《The Indicator》节目。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是Waylon Wong。

I'm Waylon Wong.

我是Adrian Ma。

And I'm Adrian Ma.

当然，这样的故事不只是发生在圣安东尼奥。

Stories like this are not just happening in San Antonio, of course.

虽然ICE可能不像今年早些时候那样频繁上头条，但它一直在悄悄增加逮捕行动。

While ICE may not be making headlines like it was earlier this year, it has been quietly ramping up arrests.

加州大学伯克利分校和加州大学洛杉矶分校的驱逐数据项目分析发现，ICE在7月逮捕了近5万人，这是特朗普总统再次上任以来ICE逮捕人数最多的一个月。

An analysis by UC Berkeley and UCLA's Deportation Data Project finds that ICE arrested nearly 50,000 people in July, making it the biggest month for ICE arrests since President Trump took office again.

白宫表示，他的驱逐策略将有助于经济，但新的研究表明，情况恰恰相反。

The White House says his deportation strategy will help the economy, but new research suggests it's doing the opposite.

今天的节目，我们来聊聊特朗普的强硬执法如何制造了一种经济学家所说的“恐惧经济”，而且这种恐惧不仅仅影响移民。

Today on the show, how Trump's aggressive enforcement is creating what one academic researcher calls an economy of fear and not just for immigrants.

在Planet Money暑期学校的这一季，我们在挪威钻过油。

Season on Planet Money Summer School, we have drilled for oil in Norway.

我们往朝鲜走私过商品，现在我们来到了第七大洲——南极洲。

We've smuggled products into North Korea, and now we make it to our seventh continent, Antarctica.

南极洲。

Antarctica.

没错，

That's

对。

right.

替我说两句。

Speak for me.

企鹅先生，说两句，

Mister penguin, speak

说说南极的声音。

for sound of Antarctica.

那是记者在试着采访企鹅呢。

That's a reporter trying to interview a penguin.

我们会在《金钱星球》暑期课程里解释。

We'll explain on Planet Money summer school.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方收听吧。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

在《Code Switch》节目里，我们在问一个问题：我们欠那些养育我们的人什么？

On Code Switch, we're asking, what do we owe the people who raised us?

我觉得公共舆论让我们觉得，那些和家人疏远的人不在乎家庭，或者他们很自私、很个人主义，但

I think the public discourse makes us think that people who are estranged don't care about the family or they're, like, selfish or individualistic, and

这真的不是我发现的情况。

that really wasn't what I found.

我发现，实际上他们非常在乎

I found, actually, they cared

家庭，他们真的很想要好的家庭关系，而且他们在尽力想办法做到这一点。

so much about the family that they really wanted good families, and they were trying their best to figure out a way to do that.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方收听《Code Switch》。

Listen to code switch in the NPR app or wherever you get your pockets.

在特朗普2.0之前，ICE的运作方式要有限得多。

Before Trump two point o, ICE used to operate in a much more limited way.

如果有一家企业被怀疑雇佣了无证工人，他们会去突袭那家企业，但这只是偶尔发生的事件。

If there was someone a business that was suspected of, hiring undocumented workers, they would go to raid that business, but it was kind of a one off event.

这位是泽克·埃尔南德斯，宾夕法尼亚大学的商学教授。

This is Zeke Hernandez, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

他一直在研究这种新型的ICE执法方式如何影响当地企业。

He's been studying how this new brand of ICE enforcement is affecting local businesses.

现在不同的是，ICE在社区里成了常驻的流动力量。

Now what's different is that ICE is a permanent roving presence in a community.

ICE来了就不走，一待就是几周、几个月。

ICE goes and stays and stays for weeks, months.

这种情况发生在洛杉矶、芝加哥和夏洛特这样的大城市，也出现在明尼阿波利斯、纳什维尔和新奥尔良等中小城市。

That's happened in big cities like LA, Chicago and Charlotte, as well as small and mid sized ones like Minneapolis, Nashville and New Orleans.

作为商学教授，泽克开始思考，在执法力度加大的地方，商业活动会受到什么影响。

And as a business professor, Zeke started wondering what was happening to commerce in places that saw this ramped up enforcement.

于是我想，让我去拿数据来看看。

And, I thought, let me get the data.

他首先从2024年初到2026年初的几百万条新闻文章中提取信息。

He started by scraping millions of news articles from early twenty twenty four to early twenty twenty six.

这让他能够精确到具体地址，识别出ICE逮捕发生的地点。

That allowed him to identify where ICE arrests had taken place down to the level of an address.

然后他又拿到了另外两组数据，一组是消费者信用卡和借记卡的消费记录，另一组是手机收集的客流量数据。

Then he got two more data sets, one for consumer credit and debit card purchases and another showing foot traffic data collected from cell phones.

这些数据让他能够看到消费者花了多少钱，以及他们去了哪些商家。

And these data sets allowed him to see how much consumers were spending and which businesses they were visiting.

这些数据的特别之处在于，我可以每天追踪五百万家企业的动态。

What's remarkable about these data is I can track 5,000,000 businesses every day.

而且数据非常细致，比如你社区里的莫莉咖啡店、附近的星巴克、沃尔玛或塔吉特、汽车经销商、建筑工地等等。

And and it's very granular, you know, Molly's coffee shop in your neighborhood, the Starbucks in your neighborhood, the the, you know, the Walmart or Target, the car dealership, construction sites.

当齐克把这些数据源结合起来——ICE的活动、消费者支出和客流量——一个清晰的模式就浮现出来了。

When Zeke put these data sources together, ICE activity, consumer spending, and foot traffic, what emerged was a clear pattern.

当ICE出现时，企业的客流量和消费支出都会显著下降。

When ICE shows up, businesses experience a significant decline in foot traffic and a significant decline in spending.

具体来说，从2024年到特朗普执政第一年，工作场所和零售店的客流量下降了3%，消费者支出下降了7%。

Specifically, a 3% decline in foot traffic to workplaces and retailers and a seven percent decline in consumer spending between 2024 and Trump's first year in office.

乍一听，消费下降7%可能不算什么，但你可以这样想。

Now a 7% decline in spending might not sound like a lot at first blush, But think about it this way.

如果全美国的消费在一年内下降了7%，我们可能就会开始用“衰退”这个词了。

If consumer spending all over The US dropped by 7% over the course of a year, we might start throwing around the word recession.

有多少企业能承受这么大的打击呢？

And how many businesses could survive that kind of haircut?

没错。

Exactly.

泽克还说，这些影响不仅仅局限于那些可能最受ICE针对的人群。

Zeke also says these effects weren't just limited to people who might feel the most targeted by ICE.

那些不再去上班、不再去购物或减少消费的人，不只是移民和西班牙裔。

The people who stopped showing up to work or to shop or who spent less are not just immigrants and Hispanics.

还有非移民和非西班牙裔。

It's nonimmigrants and non Hispanics.

是所有人。

It's everybody.

这是一个被恐惧驱动的经济。

It's an economy driven by fear.

齐克发现，这种恐惧驱动的经济可能会持续很长时间。

And Zeke found that a fear driven economy can linger for a long time.

我原本以为这些影响几周后就会消失。

I expected that these effects would eventually go away after a few weeks.

对吧？

Right?

移民局针对某个地方采取行动，然后离开，你知道的，商家就会恢复正常。

ICE targets a location, leaves, you know, and businesses go back to normal.

但事实并非如此。

That's not the case.

这些影响不会消失。

The effects do not go away.

也就是说，商家会经历客流量和消费的永久性下降。

That is businesses experience a permanent drop in foot traffic and spending.

它们就是下降了，然后一直没恢复。

They just they went down and they kinda stayed down.

下降了，就一直没恢复。

They went down and they stayed down.

对。

Yeah.

实际上，随着时间的推移，客流量还在继续下降。

In fact, foot traffic kept going down even more over time.

需要说明的是，Zeke的研究只覆盖到2026年2月。

Now we should say Zeke's study only looked at the period up to February 2026.

他说，之后的情况还需要更多研究。

He says more research needs to be done on what's happened since then.

不过，他担心我们才刚刚开始看到对当地经济的长期影响。

Still, he worries that we've only begun to see the longer term effects on local economies.

恐惧经济会导致人们搬走，或者不愿意搬进来。

An economy of fear causes people to either move out or not wanna move in.

所以突然间，某个地方的人才、工人、消费者和纳税人的流入就会减少。

So all of a sudden, the inflow of talent and workers and spenders and taxpayers to a location is gonna go down.

我们报道过这件事。

And we have reported on this.

特朗普政府减少合法和非法移民的大规模行动，已经影响到了医疗、农业和建筑等行业的工人。

The Trump administration's larger campaign to reduce legal and illegal immigration has hit workers in industries like health care, agriculture, and construction.

最近，我们采访了迈阿密一位来自海地的企业主。

And recently, we spoke to a business owner in Miami who is originally from Haiti.

她说她社区里的人因为担心移民执法局而不敢出门。

And she said folks in her community are scared to go out because they're worried about ICE.

就齐克而言，他的研究让他对特朗普移民执法策略的合理性产生了质疑。

For his part, Zeke's research leads him to question the wisdom of Trump's immigration enforcement strategy.

如果你相信移民执法局的做法无论出于什么原因都是好的，你可能会接受短期的经济代价。

If you believe that what ICE is doing is good for whatever reason, you you you believe that, you might accept the short term economic cost.

你可能会说，好吧，我接受几周经济活动的小波动，但从长远来看，我相信这对那个社区会更好。

You might say, okay, fine, I will accept a blip in economic activity for a few weeks, but you know in the long run I believe this is going to be better for that community.

但我觉得没人能接受经济长期受损。

But I don't think anyone would accept a permanent hit to the economy.

我们就齐克的发现联系了白宫，想听听他们的看法。

We reached out to the White House for comment on Zeke's findings.

白宫发言人劳伦·比斯在声明中说，把这些罪犯从街上带走，能让社区对商家和顾客来说更安全。

And in a statement, spokesperson Lauren Biss said, quote, removing these criminals from the streets makes makes communities safer for business owners and customers.

她还说，美国不缺人才和劳动力来壮大我们的劳动队伍。

She also said, quote, there is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force.

回到圣安东尼奥，联邦政府计划在该市东区开设一个移民及海关执法局的处理和拘留中心。

Back in San Antonio, the federal government is planning to open an ICE processing and detention facility on the city's East Side.

这让詹姆斯·诺特很担忧，他是我们之前提到的经济发展负责人，也是圣安东尼奥的积极宣传者。

That worries James Norte, our economic development guy and San Antonio's cheerleader from earlier.

没人愿意在移民及海关执法局设施附近做生意或居住。

No one wants to have a business or live near an ICE facility.

那是个让人望而却步的东西。

It's a it's a deterrent.

他说，尤其是在东区，那个地方历史上几十年都没怎么被投资过。

Particularly on the East Side, he says, an area that's historically seen decades of disinvestment.

而且不幸的是，美国有个趋势，就是把这种不受欢迎的设施放在那些历史上经济实力较弱、资源较少、而且通常种族更多元化的社区里。

And, unfortunately, this is a trend in The United States of placing these otherwise undesirable facilities in communities that historically have had less economic power, less means, and usually little bit more racially diverse.

如果新的ICE设施获准开放，他认为这会对当地经济造成灾难性影响，可能会让他们之前所有的努力都白费。

If the new ICE facility is allowed to open, he thinks it'll have disastrous effects for the local economy and could undo all the progress they've made.

本期节目由Corey Bridges制作，Robert Rodriguez负责工程。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Robert Rodriguez.

事实核查由Sierra Juarez完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

Julia Ritchie编辑了本期节目。

Julia Ritchie edited this episode.

Cake and Cannon是我们的编辑，也是NPR《指标》节目的制作人。

Cake and Cannon is our editor and the indicators of production of NPR.

产品是怎么摆上大型零售商店的货架的呢？

How do products end up on big box shelves?

我们《金钱星球》节目组在推广《金钱星球》桌游。

Well, we at Planet Money pitch the Planet Money board game.

我尽量不去想这件事有多重要，以及投入了多少心血。

I'm trying not to think how much of a big deal it is and how much work has gone into.

这真的很大。

It's really big.

要不要我提醒你它有多大？

Is it helpful if I remind you how big it is?

开始吧。

Go.

这就是全部内容。

It's of the whole thing.

我们深入那些决定货架上摆什么商品的人们的内心世界。

We go inside the minds of the people who decide what goes on store shelves.

在NPR应用或任何你收听的地方，收听《金钱星球》。

Listen to Planet Money on the NPR app or wherever you

收听播客。

get your podcasts.

在NPR的Wildcard播客中，音乐人Britney Howard说，她写歌时其实只是想打动她的乐队成员。

On NPR's wildcard podcast, musician Britney Howard says when she's writing music, she's really just trying to impress her bandmates.

在Alabama Shakes的这段时间里，我觉得当我拿出一个作品，看到Zach和Heath眼睛一亮，我就觉得自己真的被认可了。

This whole time in Alabama Shakes, I think when I bring something to the table and I see Zach and Heath light up, I feel like I really feel validated.

在NPR应用、YouTube或任何你收听播客的地方，观看或收听那场Wildcard对话。

Watch or listen to that wildcard conversation on the NPR app, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.