经济是红色、橙色、黄色还是绿色？

NPR。

NPR.

目前美国经济有点矛盾。

The US economy is a little paradoxical at the moment.

失业率相对较低，但人们却说现在找工作很难。

Unemployment is relatively low, and yet people are saying it's a terrible time to find a job.

伊朗战争爆发的第一个月，股市暴跌，但股票价格仍远高于一年前。

The share market slumped in the first month of the war in Iran, and yet stocks are still way higher than a year ago.

美国人对经济感到悲观，但劳动生产率却在上升。

Americans are feeling glum about the economy, and yet labor productivity is up.

在这种时候，听取多种观点很有帮助。

It's times like this when it's helpful to get multiple perspectives.

比如，两位美联储主席的看法如何？

Like, how about two presidents of the Federal Reserve banking system?

常听节目的听众都知道，全国有12家地区性美联储银行，奥斯坦·古利比领导着芝加哥联储。

Regular listeners will know that there are 12 regional Fed banks around the country, and Austan Goolsbee leads the Chicago Fed.

奥斯坦来自学术界，他说自己对利率高低没有偏见，既不是鹰派也不是鸽派。

Austan comes from academia and says he doesn't have a bias for higher or lower interest rates, that he's neither a hawk nor a dove.

我一直说，我并不想成为任何一种鸟。

I always said, I don't aspire to be a bird of any kind.

我只是想当一只数据狗。

I just wanted to be one of the data dogs.

贝丝·哈马克说她也是只数据狗。

Beth Hammack says she's also a data dog.

她曾经在华尔街工作，现在是克利夫兰联储的主席，负责俄亥俄州以及肯塔基州、宾夕法尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州的部分地区。

She used to work on Wall Street and now is the president of the Cleveland Fed, which covers Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

克利夫兰和芝加哥之间一直有点竞争关系，这在我们刚布置好话筒时就明显表现出来了。

And Cleveland has a bit of a rivalry with Chicago that was apparent right as we were getting the mic set up.

奥斯坦需要整理一下头发吗？还是他的头发没问题？

Does Austan need to fix his hair, or is his hair okay?

奥斯坦是秃头，如果你还没注意到的话

Austan is bald, if you didn't

这有点儿太不厚道了。

That was a kind of low blow.

现在我可能不会手下留情了。

Now I may have no mercy.

我本来打算对克利夫兰网开一面，但现在一点情面都不留了。

I was gonna have mercy on Cleveland, and now there's gonna be none.

我们特别想听听学术派的奥斯坦·古尔斯比和市场导向的贝丝·哈马克之间的分歧。

And it was tensions between the academic Austan Goolsbee and the markets oriented Beth Hammack that we were keen to hear more about.

所以今天在节目中，广告后我们将了解经济的最新状况，包括物价、失业率以及整个金融体系的稳定性。

So today on the show, taking the temperature of the economy, the latest on prices, unemployment, and the stability of the entire financial system after the break.

本周《早间新闻》，特朗普政府与伊朗并未达成和平协议。

This week on Up First, the Trump administration and Iran do not have a peace deal.

现在总统表示，霍尔木兹海峡已处于美国的封锁之下。

Now the president says the Strait Of Hormuz is under a US blockade.

这对伊朗的停火意味着什么，还有待观察。

What that means for the cease fire in Iran remains to be seen.

这对汽油价格意味着什么，这些价格可能会继续上涨。

And what it means for gas prices, those will likely continue to climb.

关注最新进展。

Follow the latest developments.

我们每天早上在《Up First》节目中为您带来。

We'll have them every morning on up first.

请在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

贝丝·哈马克，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长，以及奥斯坦·古尔斯比，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长。

Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

欢迎来到节目。

Welcome to the show.

好耶。

Yay.

感谢你们的邀请。

Thank you for having us.

邀请我们。

For having us.

并不是每天都能同时请到两位美联储银行行长来交谈。

So it's not every day that we get not just one, but two Fed bank presidents to talk with.

所以我想玩个游戏。

So I wanted to play a game.

我会提出美联储关注的经济三大主要方面：通胀、就业和金融体系。

I'm gonna bring up the three main parts of the economy the Fed looks at, inflation, jobs, and the financial system.

我想听听你们对前景的评估。

And I'd like your assessment of what the outlook is.

红色、橙色、黄色，还是绿色。

Red, orange, yellow, or green.

红色，表示火已经烧到房子了。

Red, the house is on fire.

一直到绿色，表示一切都很顺利。

Through to green, meaning everything's looking swell.

你准备好了吗？

Are you ready?

是的。

Yes.

我准备好了。

I'm ready to go.

好的。

Alright.

我们先从物价开始。

Let's begin with prices.

美联储的目标是将通胀率控制在每年2%。

The Fed's goal is to have inflation at 2% a year.

关于通胀，我们现在处于哪个颜色阶段？

What color are we at with inflation?

先说颜色，从贝丝开始，红色、橙色、黄色还是绿色？

So just the color first, starting with Beth, red, orange, yellow, or green.

我觉得价格方面是橙色。

I would say orange on prices.

好的。

Okay.

奥斯坦呢？

And Austan?

是的。

Yeah.

至少是橙色。

At least orange.

深橙色。

Burnt orange.

橙色，还可能有肉丸。

Orange with the chance of meatballs.

你知道，情况并不理想。

You know, it hasn't been great.

好的。

Okay.

都在橙色范围内。

Both in the orange range.

贝丝，你能谈谈你选择这个颜色的理由吗？

Beth, can you talk about your rationale for that color?

是的。

Yeah.

通货膨胀率在过去将近五年里一直高于我们的目标。

Inflation has been above our target for coming on five years.

我们一直维持在3%左右，而不是目标的2%。

We've been trading closer to three percent than our objective of 2%.

到2024年，我们取得了不错的进展，但过去两年基本上处于停滞状态。

We made good progress by 2024, but for the past two years, it's been basically moving sideways.

因此，我评估的一部分观点是，我同意奥斯坦的看法，这确实是一种更明亮、更鲜艳的橙色。

And so part of my assessment, and I'd agree with Austan, that it's definitely at the the brighter, the more vibrant color orange.

我不确定这是焦橙色还是焦赭色。

I don't know if that's burnt orange, burnt sienna.

我的蜡笔盒有点旧了。

My Crayola box is a little bit old.

奥斯坦，你的理由是什么？

Austan, what's your rationale?

我的意思是，只要开车出门看看芝加哥的汽油价格就知道了。

I mean, just get in your car and look out the window, the price of gas here in Chicago.

这总结了大家都知道的事实：物价上涨了，而且人们对这并不满意。

And that summarizes what everybody already knows, which is prices are up and they're not happy about it.

我们一直在走下坡路，去年初我一直在说，经济被抛入了一阵滞胀的尘埃中——滞胀就是美联储应该做的两件事同时恶化。

We've been going the wrong way, and we started last year with a series of what I kept calling it stagflationary dust thrown in the air where stagflation is where both sides of what the Fed is supposed to be doing start getting worse at the same time.

物价上涨速度超过2%，与此同时就业市场也在恶化。

The prices start going up faster than 2% at the same time the job market's deteriorating.

我原本乐观地认为我们会重回2%通胀的目标路径，但天啊，最近颜色正从橙色转向红色。

And I was optimistic that we would get back to this path to 2% inflation, but yikes, it's going from orange to red lately.

我们曾有提高价格的关税。

We had tariffs increasing prices.

原本以为这些关税会消失，但并没有，现在我们又面临另一轮滞胀冲击。

That was supposed to go away, kinda didn't go away, and now we're at another stagflationary shock on top of it.

如今还有石油冲击。

With the oil shock right now.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个令人担忧的时刻。

That's a troubling moment.

我想转向美联储双重使命的第二点：就业。

I'd like to turn to the second of the Fed's dual mandate, jobs.

美联储努力保持低失业率，也就是充分就业。

The Fed tries to keep unemployment low, also known as full employment.

我先请你来说。

And I'll let you go first.

奥斯坦，你现在的就业情绪戒指会显示什么颜色？

Austan, what mood would your employment mood ring be right now?

黄色。

Yellow.

我觉得是黄色。

I'd say yellow.

当前就业市场环境很特殊，因为有些指标显示就业市场状况不佳，甚至相当糟糕。

And it's an unusual environment in the job market because there are some measures that the job market looks bad, objectively bad.

招聘率达到了多年来最低水平。

The hiring rate is as low as it's been in years.

但其他一些指标却显得相对温和，比如裁员率极低。

But there are other measures that look fairly benign, like the layoff rate is extremely low.

这是一个低流动、低招聘、低裁员的劳动力市场，极为罕见。

It's just a low churn, low hiring, low firing labor market, which is extremely unusual.

我认为解释这一现象的原因是不确定性。

I think the thing that explains that is uncertainty.

在不确定的时期，企业往往会停止招聘，但也不会辞退现有员工。

Periods of uncertainty, you tend to see businesses stop hiring but also not let go of the people that they have.

我们经历了许多不确定性，但总体上保持了稳定。

And we've had a lot of uncertainty, but it's mostly stable.

贝丝，你的颜色是什么？为什么？

And Beth, what's your color and why?

是的，我同意。

Yeah, I would agree.

我觉得我们正处于黄绿色区域。

I think we're in that yellow green kind of area.

也许是黄绿色。

Maybe a chartreuse.

黄绿色很适合形容这种情况。

Chartreuse is a good color for it.

对。

Yeah.

这个词用得真好。

It's a good word for it.

我选chartreuse。

I'll go with chartreuse.

我不想再继续这个话题了。

I'm done with this conversation.

我们和芝加哥联储没关系，我们没有chartreuse。

We don't with Chicago Fed, we don't have chartreuse.

其实，你知道吗？

Isn't actually, you know what?

就像总统巴克在癫痫症期间喝的健怡王水一样。

It's like the diet Mountain Dew that president bark and drinks at the epilepsy.

这正是我们身上的颜色。

That's exactly the color in us.

我们这个世界里有些奇怪的人。

We got some weird people in our world.

对我来说，最好的指标确实是失业率，因为随着我们经历的移民变化，很难判断需要创造多少就业才能保持稳定。

To me, the best indicator is really the unemployment rate because with all the changes that we've had in immigration, it's hard to know what job creation should be to keep things steady.

而我目前看到的失业率正好接近我对于充分就业的估算。

And the unemployment rate that I see right now is right around my estimates of maximum employment.

我认为我们正处于那个区间内。

I think we're just in that zip code.

所以我们需要观察这一趋势如何继续发展。

And so we'll see how that continues to play through.

这种平衡是脆弱的，因为它处于低招聘、低裁员的环境中。

It is a fragile type of balance in that it is this low hiring, low firing environment.

作为两个上大学孩子的母亲，我确实听到了新进入劳动力市场的人面临的困难。

As the mother of two college age kids, I definitely am hearing about how it's been difficult for new entrants into the workforce.

但感觉仍然存在一些机会。

But it does feel like there are still opportunities.

仍然有一些地方。

There are still places.

而且，说实话，在我所在的第四选区，当我与雇主们交流时，我经常听到他们说很难找到所需的人才，尤其是在技术行业或制造业等领域。

And, you know, I'd say for my district, the 4th District, what I hear more often when I'm out talking to employers is that they have a hard time finding the workers they need, particularly in places like the skilled trades or manufacturing.

美联储承担重要责任的另一个经济大领域是金融稳定。

The other big sector of the economy the Fed takes a big share of responsibility for is financial stability.

贝丝·哈马克，你如何评价美国经济的金融稳定状况？

Beth Hammack, what color would you give for your assessment of The US economy's financial stability?

从金融稳定的角度来看，我认为目前整体情况是良好的。

I would say we're generally green right now from a financial stability perspective.

当然，有一些领域我正在密切关注。

There are definitely pockets that I'm watching.

私人信贷无疑是其中之一。

Private credit is certainly one of them.

但总体而言，我对银行体系的状况感到乐观。

But on the whole, I feel good about the state of the banking system.

市场似乎运行得非常顺畅。

Market seems to be moving very well.

过去几个月，你已经看到金融条件有所收紧。

Over the past months, you've seen financial conditions tighten a bit.

这对企业来说可能有点棘手，因为利率上升了，股价也下跌了。

That may be a little bit tricky for businesses as both interest rates have gone higher, equity prices have gone lower.

但总体而言，我认为从金融稳定的角度来看，经济状况良好。

But in general, I think from a financial stability perspective, I think the economy is in a good place.

奥斯坦呢？

And Austan?

我会从两个方面来分析。

I would split it in two ways.

你提到了金融体系，而金融体系中有一部分，在我们的术语中，是关于支付和金融系统的基础设施。

You said the financial system, and there is a part of the financial system that in our language is about payments and the plumbing of the financial system.

美联储系统每天通过其支付网络处理高达5万亿美元的交易，包括电汇、直接存款等。

And the Federal Reserve System literally runs $5,000,000,000,000 of payments per day over its rails, wire transfers, direct deposits, stuff like that.

在这方面，绝对是绿色，深绿色，森林绿，亚马逊绿，非常稳定。

On that green, solid green, forest green, Amazon green, that's very stable.

我对估值问题有点担忧。

I'm a little more anxious something about valuations.

你说估值，是指股市中公司的估值，比如黄金等商品的价格吗？

When you say valuations, you're meaning companies' valuations in the stock market, prices of things like gold, for example?

是的，如果你看看价格与收益等指标的对比，确实看起来出现了很多泡沫。

Yeah, if you look at prices compared to earnings and things like that, it does look like there is a lot of frothiness that has happened.

我不确定这是否是泡沫，还是源于人工智能或其他技术带来的实际生产率提升。但经历过几次这样的周期后，我知道由资产泡沫驱动的繁荣与崩溃往往以悲剧收场。

And I don't know if that's bubble or if it's rooted in actual productivity improvements that have come from AI or other technologies, But having lived through a few of those cycles, the kind of asset bubble driven boom bust, they can end in tears.

明白了。

Got it.

所以，支付系统的部分是森林绿，那更广泛的金融部门是什么颜色呢？

So forest green for the plumbing and what color for that more general financial sector?

也许可能是黄色。

And maybe maybe that's yellow.

我不确定。

I don't know.

好的。

Okay.

我永远不会说那些话是真实的。

I'm I'm never gonna you're never gonna hear me say the words are true.

这涵盖了从经济角度的全方位见解。

Well, this has been a full spectrum of economic insights.

感谢您加入奥斯坦·古尔斯比和贝丝·哈马克的对话。

Thank you for joining Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack.

谢谢你们邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

这真是我们的荣幸。

Really our pleasure.

本集由科里·布里奇斯制作，由夸西·李负责音频工程。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges and engineered by Kwaisi Lee.

本集内容由维托·埃曼努埃尔核对。

It was fact checked by Vito Emmanuel.

凯特·坎农负责剪辑本节目，《指标》由NPR制作。

Kate Cannon edits the show and the indicator is a production of NPR.