一位经济学家对数据中心焦虑的解答

NPR。

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这里是《金钱星球》的《指标》节目。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是瑞奇·穆尔维。

I'm Ricky Mulvey.

我是阿德里安·马。

And I'm Adrian Ma.

如今，能找到一个让不同意识形态的美国人团结起来的政治热点问题可不多见，但AI数据中心可能算一个。

It can feel rare these days to find a hot button political issue that unites Americans across the ideological spectrum, but AI data centers might be it.

AI数据中心又大又吵，还特别耗电。

AI data centers, they're big and noisy, and they guzzle energy.

在全国一些城市，它们给当地电网带来了压力。

And in some cities around the country, they're putting a strain on local power grids.

难怪最近皮尤调查显示，50%的美国人认为数据中心会让家庭电费上涨，弊大于利。

No wonder in a recent Pew survey, 50% of Americans said they think data centers will be mostly bad for home energy bills.

在数百万美国人看到水电费和其他各种费用上涨的时候，这不过是让他们又多了一件操心的事。

And at a time when millions of Americans are seeing rising costs for utilities and a whole lot more, this is just one more thing for them to worry about.

但今天在节目中，我们的嘉宾认为这并不值得恐慌。

But today on the show, our guest argues that this isn't a reason to panic.

稍后回来，经济学家朱莉娅·卡特赖特会带来几个历史上的例子，来说明当前的数据中心热潮并不意味着我们注定要面对高电价。

When we come back, economist Julia Cartwright brings us a few examples from history to argue why the current boom in data centers doesn't mean we're doomed to high electricity prices.

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This message comes from the NPR wine club, which has generated over $1,750,000 to support NPR, whether buying a few bottles or joining the club.

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今天就在donate.npr.org捐款，让公共媒体保持公共性，谢谢。

Keep public media public with a donation today at donate.npr.org, and thank you.

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This election season, you can streamline your news intake with Up First.

我们的记者和编辑团队通宵工作，让你每天早上都能在十二到十四分钟的短节目中听到你需要知道的三条新闻，节省你的时间和精力。

Our team of reporters and editors works overnight, so you can start every morning with three stories you need to know in short episodes, twelve, fourteen minutes long to save you time and your sanity.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方关注Up First。

Follow-up first on the NPR App or wherever you get your podcasts.

中年生活带来了很多变化。

Midlife brings a lot of changes.

《Your Turn with Alison Aubrey》是一档新播客，帮你应对这些起伏变化。

Your Turn with Alison Aubrey is a new podcast to help you navigate the twists and turns.

从健康、关系到创造力和人生目标，我们可以帮你指引下一段旅程，尽在《Your Turn with Allison Aubrey》。

From health and relationships to creativity and purpose, we can help steer your next chapter with Your Turn with Allison Aubrey.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方找到它。

Find it on the NPR App or wherever you get your podcasts.

1980年，联邦政府发布了一份名字很无聊的报告，叫《全球2000年报告致总统》。

In 1980, the federal government released a report with a very boring name, the Global 2,000 Report to the President.

但这份报告的内容一点也不无聊。

But the contents of this report was anything but boring.

他们说，嘿。

They said, hey.

我们没有足够的产能或资源来满足未来的需求，尤其是电力需求。

We do not have the capacity or resource abundance to meet the demands of particularly electricity in the future.

朱莉娅·卡特赖特是美国经济研究所的高级研究员，该智库倡导自由市场和有限政府。

Julia Cartwright is a senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, a think tank that advocates for free markets and limited government.

所以报告说，我们预计能源的实际价格将上涨约150%。

So the report says we anticipate that the real price of energy is going to rise about 150%.

现在想想后果，如果能源价格上涨，这意味着所有东西的价格都会上涨，因为能源是任何生产中的重要投入。

Now if you think about the consequences of that, if the price of energy goes up, this means the price of everything is going up because energy is such a valuable input into any type of production.

报告的作者预测石油价格将上涨，化石燃料将变得稀缺，人口将快速增长。

The report's authors saw oil prices rising, fossil fuels becoming scarce, and a rapidly growing population.

最后，他们说消费者将为这种日益增长的稀缺性付出代价。

In the end, they said consumers will pay the price for this growing scarcity.

这个结论听起来太悲观了。

This conclusion seems so dire.

朱莉娅说，媒体给这份报告起了个绰号，咚咚咚，叫“末日报告”。

Julia says that the media nicknamed this document, dun dun dun, the doomsday report.

但朱莉娅说，到了世纪之交，这些末日预言并没有应验。

But by the turn of the century, Julia says, the doomsday predictions didn't pan out.

实际情况是，电力的实际价格并没有上涨150%。

What actually happens is that the real price of electricity did not increase by 150%.

在那二十五年里，它实际上下降了超过25%。

It actually decreased more than 25% in that twenty five years.

这份报告不仅幅度错了，方向也错了。

This report, not only was it wrong in magnitude, it was wrong in the direction.

那到底发生了什么？

So what happened?

基本上，这份报告假设当时的能源短缺会持续下去。

Well, basically, the report assumed that the energy scarcity of the time would continue.

它低估了人类行为和技术会如何适应高能源价格。

It underestimated how human behavior and technology would adjust to high energy prices.

比如节能汽车，或者新的油气开采方式，这些最终让美国成为全球最大的石油生产国。

Things like fuel efficient cars or new ways of oil and gas drilling that would eventually lead The US to become the world's largest oil producer.

所以我觉得这是一个非常令人振奋、也非常重要的例子，展示了美国人的创造力。

So this is, I think, a very exciting and a very important example to illustrate the power of American ingenuity.

朱莉娅最近在《华盛顿邮报》的一篇专栏文章中写了这件事。

Julia wrote this in a recent op ed for The Washington Post.

她认为，在谈到数据中心和能源价格的担忧时，这种创造力被低估了。

This ingenuity, she thinks, is being undersold when it comes to the concerns about data centers and energy prices.

为了提供一些背景，我读到一份分析说，未来几年数据中心的用电量将翻倍甚至增加两倍。

Just to put a little bit of context here, I read one analysis that electricity usage from data centers will double or triple in the next few years.

而且一半的美国人认为数据中心会导致家庭能源账单上涨。

And half of Americans think data centers will result in higher home energy bills.

这背后的逻辑就是经典的供需关系。

And the rationale here, classic supply and demand.

对。

Yes.

数据中心对电力的需求非常大。

Data centers have huge power requirements.

能源有限，这会给电价带来上涨压力。

There's limited energy, and that is gonna put pressure on prices to rise.

你说这种担忧和那份末日报告一样，建立在同样的错误假设上。

You say this fear rests on the same broken assumptions as the doomsday report.

你这话是什么意思？

What do you mean by that?

我的意思是，价格上涨会引导企业家进入某个特定行业。

What I mean by this is that higher prices indicate to entrepreneurs to go into a specific type of industry.

如果价格在上涨，这就会向有创业精神的人发出信号，好像在说：嘿。

If a price is rising, this signals to somebody with an entrepreneurial bone in their body saying, hey.

我其实能解决这个问题。

I can actually solve this problem.

这就是我说的意思。

And this is what I mean by the

价格方面。

to price.

在这里生产。

Be made here.

没错。

Exactly.

那我给你举个例子。

So I'll just give you a little example.

以前，鲸油为全国各地的灯提供燃料。

Whale oil used to provide oil for lamps all around the nation.

世界上有多少头鲸鱼呢？

How many whales are there in the world?

鲸鱼的数量是有限的。

There is a a limited number of whales.

那接下来会发生什么？

And so what happens?

价格就会上涨。

That price is going up.

价格就会上涨。

That price is going up.

砰。

Boom.

煤油出现了，基本上让鲸油变得过时了。

Kerosene comes in and makes basically whale oil obsolete.

你是说有人会觉得，哦，鲸油太贵了。

You're saying somebody was like, oh, whale oil is is too expensive.

我们还能烧什么？

What else can we burn?

煤油怎么样？

How about kerosene?

对。

Exactly.

对。

Exactly.

这就是价格机制的美妙之处。

And that is the beauty of the price mechanism.

当然，联邦政府当时也帮了忙，给煤油在税收上比其它燃料更有优势。

Of course, the federal government helped with that by giving kerosene a tax advantage compared to some other forms of fuel at the time.

不管怎样，朱莉娅说再看看另一个例子，铜线。

Either way, Julia says look at another example, copper wire.

大家都很担心铜价会涨得太高，我们没法建新房、开新企业，因为铜价高得离谱。

Folks were very concerned that the price of copper was gonna go so high, and we weren't going to be able to build new homes and businesses because the price of copper was prohibitively high.

那后来怎么样？

So what happens?

光纤出现了，然后一下子就解决了。

Fiber optic comes in and boom.

我们不再需要那么多铜了。

We don't need as much copper anymore.

而这正是我预计在数据中心时代会发生的事情。

And that is exactly what I anticipate happening in our data center moment.

所以朱莉娅相信美国的创新精神会帮助我们解决数据中心难题。

So Julia believes American ingenuity will help us solve our data center dilemma.

而且，

And on

在这一点上，能源价格上涨的威胁已经在推动私营和公共部门的创新。

that score, the threat of higher energy prices is already spurring innovation in both the private and public sectors.

那我们先从私营部门说起。

So let's start with the private sector.

一些最大的数据中心占地数百英亩。

Some of the biggest data centers are hundreds of acres.

我是说，真的是非常非常庞大的建筑。

I mean, just absolutely massive, massive, massive buildings.

所以这些公司意识到他们给电网带来了压力，于是他们投资于自己发电。

And so these companies are realizing that they're putting strain on the grid, and so they're investing in bringing their own power.

为了满足部分电力需求，像Anthropic、Alphabet、Meta、OpenAI和亚马逊这样的公司，正在投资建设新的发电厂或重启旧的发电厂。

To feed some of their needs for electricity, companies like Anthropic, Alphabet, Meta, OpenAI, and Amazon, they're investing into building new power plants or restarting old ones.

他们甚至投资建设新的核电站。

They're even investing in building new nuclear power plants.

不过我们得说，数据中心几个月就能建好，而发电厂却要花上好几年。

Although we should say a data center can be built in a matter of months, whereas a power plant takes years.

确实。

True.

而且，这还不是公司降低成本的唯一途径。

And still, that's not the only way companies can bring down costs.

计算的价格正在上涨。

The price of compute is going up.

因此，我们需要聪明地创新，降低成本，提高效率。

Therefore, we need to get savvy about how to innovate and bring this down, make things more efficient.

所以，AI模型正在快速变得更高效。

And as a result, AI models are getting more efficient fast.

去年，斯坦福大学的研究人员估算了一次AI查询的成本，他们发现，在两年时间里，成本下降了280多倍。

Last year, a study from Stanford researchers estimated the cost of running an AI query, and they found that over a two year period, the cost dropped over 280 fold.

我是说，别告诉股市这件事。

I mean, don't tell the stock market that.

我们需要所有能省下的成本。

We need we need all the costs we can get.

不只是大型云服务商在创新以应对电价上涨。

It's not just the hyperscalers innovating to deal with rising electricity prices.

朱莉娅说，地方政府也在这么做。

Julia says local governments are too.

同时，大家也在大力呼吁加强本地电网容量，并调整本地法规，以应对这些数据中心的需求。

There's also been a big clamoring to try to shore up local grid capacity and also local regulation to try to meet the moment of these data centers.

这可能意味着升级当地的能源基础设施，或者市政部门改变处理数据中心的方式。

That might mean upgrading local energy infrastructure or municipalities changing the way they deal with data centers.

比如说，长期以来，地方政府给建设这些数据中心的企业提供补贴和税收减免是很常见的。

For example, it's long been common for local governments to offer subsidies and tax breaks to companies building these data centers.

这些补贴每年可能让各州损失数亿美元的税收收入。

These subsidies can cost states hundreds of millions of dollars a year in lost revenue.

但随着政治风向对数据中心不利，这种情况开始改变。

But with the political climate turning against data centers, that's starting to change.

纳税人不太愿意补贴这些项目了，朱莉娅认为这是好事。

Taxpayers are less willing to subsidize these projects, and Julia thinks that's a good thing.

如果你不补贴它们，让它们自己承担成本，那它们就更有动力去想办法高效地实现目标。

If you're not subsidizing them, you're making them pay their own way, that's even more of an incentive for them to figure out an efficient way to do what they're trying to do.

所以，朱莉娅说，由于这些原因，数据中心热潮短期内可能会导致某些地方的能源价格上涨。

So for all these reasons, Julia says the data center boom may cause energy prices to increase in some places in the short run.

但从长远来看呢？

But in the long run?

我完全相信美国企业家能应对这个挑战。

I have full confidence in the American entrepreneur to meet this moment.

显然，我们节目很喜欢经济学家。

Obviously, we love economists on this show.

但我觉得你可以指责很多经济学家有一种长期思维，他们总说，从长远来看，一切都会好起来的。

But I think you could accuse a lot of economists of having sort of, like, terminally long run thinking where they say, like, well, in the long run, everything works out.

没错。

Sure.

但在短期内

But in the short run

对。

Sure.

可能会有很多人经历很多痛苦。

There may be a lot of pain for a lot of people.

是的。

Yep.

你怎么看？

What do you say to that?

我觉得，你应该参与到你当地政府的事务中去，提醒他们，你的权利和财产跟那些光鲜亮丽的数据中心和大型企业一样重要。

Well, I say get involved with your local government and remind them that your rights and property are just as important as these flashy new data centers and big companies.

别慌。

Don't panic.

参与进去。

Get involved.

没错。

Exactly.

说起来容易做起来难啊。

Well, easier said than done.

不过，现在有一件事倒是不缺，那就是对数据中心的愤怒。

Although one thing that's not scarce right now is anger over data centers.

在得克萨斯、弗吉尼亚、俄亥俄、佐治亚等很多州，对数据中心的抵制已经导致新建项目和补贴暂停，或者实施了新的环保规定。

In states like Texas, Virginia, Ohio, Georgia, and a bunch of others, the backlash against data centers has resulted in pauses on things like new construction and subsidies or implemented new environmental rules.

Ricky，我觉得经济学家们得画一个新的供需曲线图，里面得有一条线代表愤怒。

Ricky, I feel like economists need to come up with a new supply demand graph that has a line for anger.

这就像是一场愤怒大会。

It's like the anger session.

我们有了一个新的。

We've got a new one.

不是氛围大会，而是愤怒大会。

Instead of vibe session, we've got anger session.

AI愤怒曲线。

The AI anger curve.

本期节目由Corey Bridges制作，Jimmy Kealy负责工程。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Jimmy Kealy.

事实核查由Sierra Juarez完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

Kate和Kennan是我们的编辑，这是NPR的《指标》节目。

Kate and Kennan is our editor in the Indicator's production of NPR.

中年生活带来了很多变化。

Midlife brings a lot of changes.

《轮到你了》是艾莉森·奥布里主持的一档新播客，帮你应对生活中的各种波折。

Your Turn with Alison Aubrey is a new podcast to help you navigate the twists and turns.

从健康、人际关系到创造力和人生目标，我们都能帮你指引下一段旅程，欢迎收听《轮到你了》艾莉森·奥布里。

From health and relationships to creativity and purpose, we can help steer your next chapter with Your Turn with Alison Aubrey.

可以在NPR应用或任何播客平台上找到它。

Find it on the NPR App or wherever you get your podcasts.

本期节目由NPR赞助商AARP支持。

Support comes from NPR sponsor AARP.

本周的《等等，别告诉我》节目中，我们和大卫·伯恩聊了聊他从卢·里德那里得到的早期时尚建议。

This week on Wait Wait Don't Tell Me, we talked with David Byrne about the early fashion advice he got from Lou Reed.

那时候我胳膊上的毛特别多。

I had really hairy arms at that point.

他说，你永远不该穿短袖。

He said, you should never wear short sleeves.

身材决定了你的穿着。

Body shaped you.

别错过我们的完整对话和其余的游戏环节。

Don't miss our full conversation and the rest of our games.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方，收听《等等，别告诉我》播客。

Listen to the Wait Wait Don't Tell Me podcast on the NPR App or wherever you get your podcasts.