Polymarket机器人，发现锂矿：大量！马拉松跑鞋心得

这里是NPR。

NPR.

这里是《金钱星球》的《指标》节目。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是主持人韦兰德·王。

I'm your host, Weyland Wong.

我是另一位主持人达里安·伍兹。

I'm your other host, Darian Woods.

既然大家都在炫耀主持身份，那我也来凑个热闹，我是主持人阿德里安·马。

And I guess continuing the hosting boasting, I'm also a host named Adrian Ma.

没错。

That's right.

非常高兴欢迎大家收听今天的《指标》节目，本期我们要探讨的是——

And it's our sincere pleasure to welcome you all to Indicators On of the today's episode, we have

谁或者什么在通过Polymarket赚钱？

Who or what is making money off Polymarket?

地质学界传来了一则重磅消息。

A seismic announcement from the world of geology.

还有跑鞋的经济学。

And the economics of running shoes.

别走开。

Stick around.

就像杰罗姆·鲍威尔在最后一次以美联储主席身份召开的新闻发布会上说的那样，我们哪儿也不去。

Just like Jerome Powell said during his last press conference as Fed Chair, we are not going anywhere.

本消息来自Dateline原创播客《Dateline：美国失踪案》。

This message comes from the Dateline original podcast, Dateline, Missing in America.

每一集都探讨一桩未解的失踪案，一条新线索就可能改变一切。

Each episode explores an unsolved disappearance where one new tip could make all the difference.

立即搜索Dateline missing in America关注收听。

Search Dateline missing in America to follow now.

中期选举就要来了。

The midterms are coming.

如果你觉得现在的新闻周期已经很紧张了，那等到秋天再看吧。

And if you think the news cycle feels intense now, just wait until the fall.

所以夏天正好是调整你新闻摄入量的好时机。

That's why summer is a perfect time to make sure your news diet is calibrated.

我是说，Martinez，在《Up First》节目里，我们每天早上解读三件最大的新闻，让你在不到十五分钟内了解情况，然后继续你的一天。

I mean, Martinez, on Up First, we unpack the three biggest stories every morning so you can stay informed and get on with your day in fewer than fifteen minutes.

现在就关注或订阅《Up First》，无论你在哪里收听播客。

Follow or subscribe to Up First today where ever you get podcasts.

你有没有过那种生气到无法思考的时候？

Have you ever been so upset that you can't even think straight?

当我们感到痛苦和高度焦虑时，往往会用胸腔呼吸，这其实更像是过度换气，反而让人更不放松。

When we're distressed and in high anxiety, we tend to breathe from our chest, which is actually more hyperventilating and is the opposite of relaxing.

所以我们要用腹部来呼吸。

So we wanna breathe from our belly area.

本周的《Life Kit》播客，为你带来应对那些痛苦、紧张时刻的小技巧。

This week on the Life Kit Podcast, tips for those painful, stressful moments.

在NPR应用或任何你收听播客的地方收听Life Kit。

Listen to Life Kit on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是本周的指标。

It's indicators of the week.

Adrian，你呢，有什么数据？

Adrian, how about you, stat?

我本周的指标跟Polymarket以及谁真正在上面赚钱有关。

My indicator of the week has to do with Polymarket and who is actually making money on it.

所以你会……还没呢。

So you'll Not yet.

就这态度可不行。

Not with that attitude.

你们都知道Polymarket吧。

So you all know Polymarket.

那是一个预测市场平台，让人们押注未来事件，然后根据结果赢钱或输钱。

It's the prediction market platform that lets people bet on future events and they can win or lose money accordingly.

多伦多大学的研究人员最近做了一项研究，发现Polymarket上最成功的1%交易者，他们赚到的钱占了总赢利的一定比例。

Well, researchers recently at the University of Toronto, they did a study where they found the top 1% of successful traders on Polymarket were responsible for collecting a certain percentage of the winnings.

有人想猜猜这个比例是多少吗？

Anyone wanna take a guess of what that is?

最顶尖的1%。

The top 1%.

90%。

90%.

我觉得会低一点。

I'm gonna go a little lower.

我猜60%。

I'll go 60.

差不多就在你猜的那个范围中间。

Pretty close to the middle of where you're at.

这就是群众的智慧。

The wisdom of the crowd.

对。

Yeah.

我们猜对了。

We did it.

又一次猜对了。

We did it once again.

根据这项研究，Polymarket上1%的交易者赚走了76%的利润。

According to the study, 1% of Polymarket traders make 76% of the profits.

这就是我这周的指标。

And that is my indicator of the week.

好吧。

Alright.

嗯，当内幕交易者确实有优势。

Well, it helps to be an insider trader.

这就是你的结论。

That's your takeaway.

这项研究表明，Polymarket上绝大多数下注者都是输家。

Well, this study suggests that the vast majority of bettors on Polymarket are losers.

我们说的是财务上的输家，不是贬义。

And and we mean that financially, not pejoratively.

不仅如此，根据彭博新闻的分析，盈利的交易大多是通过机器人完成的，这些机器人由技术娴熟的交易者操作。

Not only that, but according to an analysis by Bloomberg News, the winning trades are mostly done through bots, bots that are operated by, you know, technically savvy traders.

他们计算过，在过去一年多的时间里，机器人占据了该平台75%的交易量。

And they calculate that over the past year and a few months, bots have made 75% of the trading volume on that platform.

他们怎么知道谁是机器人，谁是人？

How do they know who's a bot and who's a human?

基本上，彭博社分析了去年1月到今年4月Polymarket上的交易。

So basically what Bloomberg did is they analyzed Polymarket trades that took place between January of last year and April of this year.

他们假设平均每天交易超过50笔或总交易超过1000笔的账户是机器人。

And they assume that accounts that average more than 50 trades a day or more than a thousand trades in total were bots.

所以就像普通股市里的高频交易一样。

So kind of like high frequency trading in the normal stock market.

没错。

Absolutely.

而且还有更多研究显示，Polymarket上的机器人比人类更赚钱，并不是因为它们预测事件更准。

And there's actually more research out there that shows that bots on Polymarket were more profitable than humans, not because they're better at predicting events correctly.

实际上它们在预测方面更差。

They're actually worse at that.

但机器人能更早进入交易，所以获得了更好的价格。

But the bots were better at getting into trades earlier, and so they got better prices.

你看，你的意思是机器人已经赢了。

You see, what you're saying is the robots are already winning.

想赢的话，就该当个机器人。

You wanna be a winner should have been a robot.

下一个我来。

I'm next.

我的指标是230万公吨。

My indicator is 2,300,000 metric tons.

这是对阿巴拉契亚地区锂储量的估算，主要分布在卡罗来纳州，大约有230万吨。

That is the estimate of how much lithium is lurking in the Appalachian region, mostly in the Carolinas.

美国地质调查局本周表示，这些锂足以替代超过三百年的进口量。

The US geological survey said this week that that's enough lithium to replace more than three hundred years worth of imports.

换句话说，美国在一个世纪甚至更长时间内都不需要从其他国家进口锂了。

In other words, The US wouldn't need to get lithium from another country for a century or more.

你可能已经知道，全球最大的锂生产国包括澳大利亚和中国。

The world's top producers of lithium, you might already know this, include Australia and China.

美国将锂视为关键矿物，但目前实际上只有一家美国公司在生产锂。

And The US considers it a critical mineral, and there's actually only one American company that produces lithium right now.

所以美国所需锂的一半以上都依赖进口。

So The US imports more than half of the lithium it needs.

那么锂就在那里？

And so the lithium's there?

理论上是可以开采的。

It, in theory, could be extracted.

这是他们的实践背景。

It's their practice pedigree in.

直接带上你的锤子就行。

Just bring your hammer.

不。

No.

政府称阿巴拉契亚地区的锂矿在经济上是可回收的，这是一个专业术语，意思是能够盈利地开采出来。

The government describes this lithium in Appalachia as economically recoverable, and that is a jargon term that means it can be profitably produced.

而且它说这230万吨锂，足够给1.3亿辆电动汽车或5000亿部手机供电。

And it says this 2,300,000 metric tons of lithium, that's enough to power a 130,000,000 EVs or 500,000,000,000 cell phones.

真是好多手机啊。

So many cell phones.

公司到底是怎么从地下把锂提取出来的呢？

How do companies actually get the lithium out of the ground?

这可不简单。

It's not so simple.

锂储存在一种叫伟晶岩的岩石里，美国地质调查局说这种岩石和花岗岩类似。

The lithium is stored in these rocks called pegmatites, which the US Geological Survey says is similar to granite.

开采这些岩石用的机器会排放二氧化碳，而且这个过程也会消耗大量水资源。

And the machinery used to mine these rocks can emit carbon dioxide, and the process also depletes a lot of water.

所以，从地下提取锂的环境成本相当高。

And so there is kind of a high environmental cost to getting this lithium out of the earth.

你刚才说美国只有一家公司真正在开采锂。

And you said there's only one company in The US that actually mines lithium.

是的。

Yeah.

这家矿场在内华达州，目前是美国唯一一个生产锂的矿场。

The mine is based in Nevada, and it has the only lithium producing mine in the country right now.

不过，美国还有一些其他地点可能正在开发中。

Although there are some other sites that are potentially under development in The US.

所以，国内锂供应链的建设确实还处于早期阶段。

So definitely still in the early stages of building the domestic supply chain for lithium.

谢谢你，韦伦。

Thank you, Waylon.

达里安，你来收尾吧。

Darian, bring us home.

我的计时器显示一小时五十九分三十秒。

My indicator is one hour fifty nine minutes and thirty seconds.

你可能注意到我是在说周日比赛的塞巴斯蒂安·萨维。

You might click that I'm talking about Sebastian Sawe on Sunday.

这是人类了不起的成就，首次正式打破马拉松两小时大关。

This is a brilliant human achievement of breaking that two hour milestone for the marathon officially for the first time ever.

但这也是一个技术里程碑，因为他穿的鞋子非常特别。

But it's also a technological milestone because, you know, he's wearing some pretty special shoes.

阿迪达斯Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3这款鞋。

The Adidas AdaZero Adios Pro Evo three shoes.

好的。

Okay.

不过问题来了，这种超级跑鞋我们能买到吗？

Question though, like, can we get our hands on these super shoes?

对。

Yeah.

就像商场里的Foot Locker那种店？

Like at Foot Locker at the mall?

它们啊……

They yeah.

不行。

No.

它们上周刚上市。

They they came out last week.

如果你愿意花500美元，它们确实很快就卖光了。

If you gotta spend $500, they did sell out very fast.

但它们的重量大概就一块肥皂那么重，哇哦。

But they weigh about as much of a bar of soap and Woah.

这真的能看出运动已经变得多么科技化了。

It really does show how engineered sports has become.

我想给你看一张照片。

And I I wanna just show you a picture.

你要不要看看这张它们的照片？

So do you wanna just have a look at this picture of them?

哦。

Oh.

感觉几乎能看穿它们。

It's like you can almost see through them.

看起来好薄啊。

They look so thin.

我没感觉到你有多震惊。

I I'm not sensing much outrage from you.

但是呢

But like

愤怒？

Outrage?

我是说

I mean

对我来说，这些看起来就像弹簧。

To me, these just look like springs.

这就像是

This is just like

就像月球鞋或者类似的东西。

Like moon shoes or whatever those things are.

有道理

Fair

。

enough.

但你们看起来挺震惊的。

But you guys seem pretty phased.

就是说，你们已经习惯了这种超级跑鞋。

Like, you've you've gotten used to these super shoes.

跑进两小时马拉松，第二名不也做到了吗？

To run a sub two hour marathon, which didn't the second place guy also do?

对，是的。

Like Yes.

你得有很强的技术才行。

You have to have, like, a lot of skill.

所以我不会因为他们穿弹力鞋就抱怨，因为要是让我穿上这些鞋，我估计还是得跑六个小时马拉松。

So I'm not gonna, like, begrudge them, like, springy shoes because, like, if you put these shoes on me, I wouldn't even get, like you know, I would still be running, a six hour marathon.

不是。

No.

对塞巴斯蒂安·索维没有不敬的意思。

All due respect to Sebastian Soway.

但是，说实话，我对我朋友们的马拉松成绩已经没那么崇拜了，自从看到这些鞋之后。

But, like, I my friends who like I I've definitely downgraded in in my esteem the the the times that my friends are getting on marathons after seeing these shoes.

我知道这种鞋已经出现十年了，但我之前一直没关注。

I know they've been around for, a decade, but I was under a rock.

我只是震惊于我们在跑步这件事上，已经堕落到了什么地步。

And I just I'm stunned by how far we have fallen from God's grace about how to run.

感觉我们就是在跑道上蹦蹦跳跳地前进。

Like, we just springboard our way around around the track.

你是说，伊甸园里的蛇当时问的是：'要不要试试这款尖端跑鞋？'

Are you saying the serpent of the garden viend was like, would you like these cutting edge running shoes?

然后那就是原罪了。

And that was the original sin.

对。

Yeah.

我不知道。

I don't know.

所以对我来说，这恰恰体现了现在的体育运动整体上有多'工程化'。

So to me, this is just emblematic of how engineered sports in general has become.

比如，我们已经在鞋底夹层里加入了碳纤维板。

Like, we've had carbon fiber plate put in mid soles.

现在这对马拉松跑者来说几乎是标配了。

That's, like, almost compulsory these days for marathon runners.

其他运动也一样，比如匹克球。

You've also got other sports like in pickleball.

我从《石英》杂志的一篇文章里了解到，有一款最畅销的球拍要卖250美元。

One of the top selling rackets I learned from a Quartz article costs $250.

公路自行车方面，超轻碳纤维车架加上电子变速系统，价格一下子就上去了。

And in road bikes, you've got ultralight carbon fiber frames with electronic gear shifting, and and that dramatically increases the price.

大家觉得不买这些就跟不上朋友们的节奏。

And people feel like they need these to keep up with their peers.

那篇文章把这种现象叫做‘升级焦虑’，因为公司不断推出新科技、新产品，让你觉得为了继续玩这个爱好，只能不停地买买买。

The court's article called this upgrade anxiety because you've got these companies just consistently coming up with new innovations, new product launches, and that meaning that you feel like you just have to keep buying and buying just to keep up with your hobby.

这真的能让你玩得更开心吗？

Does it increase your fun?

这个就留给那些正在做的人去判断吧。

I'll leave that to the people who are doing it.

嗯，这确实增加了你的消费，而这很可能就是最终目的。

Well, it definitely increases your consumption, which is probably the ultimate goal here.

不是吗？

No?

最终目的是让经济持续运转。

The ultimate goal is to keep the economy spinning.

如果你想在邮箱里收到我们的指标，就订阅我们的新通讯吧。

If you wanna get the indicator in your inbox, sign up for our new newsletter.

网址是 npr.org/indicatornewsletter。

It's npr.org/indicatornewsletter.

网址是 npr.org/indicatornewsletter。

It's npr.org/indicatornewsletter.

本期节目由 Angel Carreras 制作，Crazy Lee 负责工程。

This episode was produced by Angel Carreras with engineering by Crazy Lee.

事实核查由Sierra Juarez和Julia Ritchey负责。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and Julia Ritchey.

Kate Cannon负责节目编辑，The Indicator是NPR出品的节目。

Kate Cannon edits the show, and the indicator is a production of NPR.

在本季的《Planet Money》暑期学校中，我们追踪资金流向，但不仅仅是美元。

On this season of Planet Money summer school, we follow the money and not just the dollars.

我们追踪人民币、尼日利亚奈拉、挪威克朗等货币。

We're following the yuan, the naira, the krone, and more.

今年夏天每周三，我们带你环游世界，结识不同的人，尝试解决老经济问题的新方案。

Every Wednesday this summer, we're taking you on a world tour to meet the people, try new solutions to old economic problems.

《Planet Money》暑期学校，叫上朋友，打包行李，别忘了防晒霜。

Planet Money summer school, grab some friends, pack your bags, and don't forget the sunscreen.

在NPR应用或你收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

赞达亚和汤姆·赫兰德回归《蜘蛛侠：崭新的一天》，这部电影比该系列以往的作品基调更接地气。

Zendaya and Tom Holland are back in Spider Man brand new day, and the movie has a more grounded tone than we've seen from the franchise.

但它能在趣味和黑暗之间找到合适的平衡吗？

But does it strike the right balance of fun and darkness?

我们会在NPR的流行文化欢乐时光节目中讨论这个话题。

We'll talk about it on NPR's pop culture happy hour.

可以通过NPR应用或你收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen via the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.