预测市场正威胁国家安全。谁来解决这个问题？

你早就习惯了这个提示音在耳边响起。

You're used to the indicator being in your ears.

现在，它出现在你的邮箱里了。

Well, now we are in your inbox.

每周五早上，我们都会推出一份全新的简报。

Every Friday morning, we're releasing a brand new newsletter.

我们会告诉你我们觉得重要的新闻动态，回答听众的问题，还会分享我们工作之外的生活。

We let you in on what we think matters in the news, answer your listener questions, and tell you what we're doing outside of work.

现在就订阅吧。

Sign up now.

我们很期待你的反馈。

We want your feedback.

npr.org/indicator-newsletter。

Npr.org/indicator newsletter.

NPR。

NPR.

预测市场存在内幕交易的问题。

Prediction markets have an insider trading problem.

是的。

Yeah.

我记得有个美国特种部队士兵，因为涉嫌下注押注委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被捕而被逮捕，而他本人居然还参与了那项任务。

I remember that American special forces soldier who was just arrested for allegedly betting on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, a mission he was apparently a part of.

这故事我真不敢信，但这就是我们现在所处的世界。

I can't believe the story, but that is world we're in these days.

简直让人难以置信。

It's it's mind boggling.

这本可以轻松赚到钱。

Could have been easy money.

不过，预测市场在经济上还是很有用的。

Still, prediction markets are economically useful.

它们能实时反映人们对通胀或经济衰退可能性的看法。

They can provide real time sentiment on things like inflation or the possibility of a recession.

就像我们从上一届总统大选中看到的，这些市场的预测往往比民调更准确。

And as we know from the last presidential election, they're often more accurate than political polls.

不管好坏还是中立，这些市场都给监管机构带来了新难题。

Good, bad, or neutral though, these markets create new problems for regulators.

这是《星球金钱》节目的报道。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是达里安·伍兹。

I'm Darian Woods.

我是里基·穆尔维。

And I'm Ricky Mulvey.

今天在节目中，我们来探讨一下如何对这些市场进行监管。

Today on the show, we're looking into how these markets can be regulated.

我们会看看 Polymarket 是如何应对内幕交易的，还会采访主张严格监管预测市场的美国民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔。

We'll see how Polymarket is fighting insider trading, and we'll check-in with Democratic US Senator Richard Blumenthal, who is hawkish on prediction market regulation.

顺便说一句，关于如何监管预测市场，这个问题实在太新了，我们在采访中提了一个连参议员都还没想过的问题。

By the way, this question of regulating prediction markets is so new that in our interview, we shared one of those questions that the senator hadn't even considered yet.

我猜过它存在，但没想到会这么多。

I suspected it was there, but I didn't know there was so much of it.

我们给他看什么？

What do we show him?

广告后回来继续。

That's after the break.

48支队伍。

48 teams.

我们想成为

We wanna be one of

人们口中那些足球强队之一。

the soccer powerhouses that people talk about.

16座城市。

16 cities.

这项赛事的魅力在于，它映照出周围社会的面貌。

The joy of the world come is that it holds up a mirror to the society that surrounds it.

一场美妙的比赛。

One beautiful game.

我觉得谁都明白，没有什么能比得上一场世界杯比赛。

I think everyone knows that nothing is like a a World Cup game.

世界杯来了，我们全程为您跟进。

The World Cup is here, and we have you covered.

通过NPR应用，随时随地关注赛场内外的动态。

Follow along on and off the pitch with the NPR app.

本周《NPR政治播客》报道，最新民调显示，特朗普总统的不受欢迎程度达到了前所未有的高度。

This week on the NPR Politics Podcast, new polling shows president Trump is more unpopular than ever.

特朗普这周满80岁了。

Trump turned 80 this week.

一位在2024年投过他票的选民说了这样一番话。

One voter who voted for him in 2024 had this message.

我本来想说请客给你买个蛋糕，可我现在买不起。

I would've said I would've bought you a cake, but I can't afford one.

不过，生日快乐。

But happy birthday.

今年中期选举的信号越来越明显了。

The signals are getting louder for this year's midterms.

选民们并不满意。

Voters aren't happy.

我们会在NPR政治播客里深入聊聊这个话题。

We'll talk about it on the NPR Politics Podcast.

可以在NPR应用上收听，或者在你常用的播客平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

Polymarket已经采取了一些措施来打击内幕交易，但它所处的位置也很特别。

Polymarket has taken a few steps to combat insider trading, but it's also in an interesting position.

它前面是一个受美国监管的业务，背后却是一个不受监管的国际加密货币市场。

It has a US regulated business in the front and an unregulated international cryptocurrency party in the back.

你是说他们搞了个‘预测市场鲻鱼头’？

You're saying they've built a sort of a prediction market mullet.

没错。

Exactly.

这两种业务之间的区别很关键。

And the difference between these two businesses is key.

在美国，交易平台必须清楚自己的客户是谁。

In The US, markets must know who their customers are.

但问题在于。

But here's the thing.

Polymarket 的大部分交易都发生在它的国际业务板块，那里简直像法外之地。

The majority of Polymarket's trades are done in its international business, and that's the Wild West.

交易者可以使用加密货币匿名操作。

Traders can operate anonymously using cryptocurrency.

不过，即使不知道具体是谁下的注，每个人都能看到这些投注。

Still, everybody can see those bets even if they don't know exactly who's placing them.

这就意味着异常的交易会立刻显眼，比如那个关于美国袭击委内瑞拉的赌注。

And that means unusual trades immediately stick out, like that bet on The US attacking Venezuela.

Polymarket 配合司法部，成功锁定了 allegedly 下注美军对委内瑞拉军事行动的士兵加农·肯·范戴克。

And Polymarket did cooperate with the Department of Justice to identify Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the soldier who allegedly placed trades on military action in Venezuela.

所以，他其实也没那么匿名。

So, actually, he wasn't that anonymous.

没错。

Right.

Polymarket 最近和一家第三方调查机构合作，追踪区块链上的加密货币流动。

Polymarket recently partnered with a third party investigator to track cryptocurrency movements across the blockchain.

他们想找出那些可疑的交易。

They wanted to track down suspicious trades.

这家第三方公司叫 Chainalysis。

That third party company is called Chainalysis.

他们专长于加密货币领域的欺诈调查。

They specialize in fraud detection in the crypto space.

亚当·哈特是他们调查团队的成员。

Adam Hart works on its investigations team.

他说加密货币并不是一个能掩盖不良行为的黑洞。

He says crypto is not a black hole that covers up bad behavior.

如果你看看过去五年里公共部门没收非法资金的记录，就会发现……

If you look at the the record of, kind of public sector agencies seizing illicit funds in in the past, you know, five years.

世界上最好的追踪专家，其实就在美国政府内部。

Some of the the best tracers in the world are, you know, in in the US government.

你可以看看国税局刑事调查部门的报告，他们没收的加密货币金额，已经超过其他所有资产的总和。

You can look at reports from, the IRS criminal investigation service, and they're seizing more money in crypto than they are in kind of all other assets combined.

所有交易都会被记录在区块链上，而区块链就是所有加密货币交易的完整清单。

Transactions are written into the blockchain, the blockchain being the list of all the trades made with the cryptocurrency.

调查人员可以查看这份清单。

Investigators can look at that list.

你只要犯一次错，证据就会永远留在那里。

So all you have to do is make one mistake, and that evidence is there forever.

我们不必非得今天就抓到你。

We don't have to catch it today.

也许五年后我们才能搞清楚，但证据依然在那里。

We might, figure it out in in five years from now, but that evidence is still there.

据称，范戴克在交易套现后，曾要求Polymarket删除他的账户。

Van Dyke allegedly asked Polymarket to delete his account after the trades cashed in.

司法部表示，他还试图更改自己加密货币交易所账户绑定的邮箱地址。

The Department of Justice says he even tried to change his email address registered to his crypto exchange account.

一个老练的罪犯可能会更加小心。

A sophisticated criminal might be more careful.

他们可以尝试用新钱包、雇佣洗钱者，或者使用号称无法追踪的币种来躲避调查。

They can try to evade detectives using fresh wallets, hiring money launderers, and using coins that promise to be untraceable.

如果他们通过Polymarket的国际业务板块操作，且身在海外，美国当局可能就难以触及他们了。

And if they are located internationally using Polymarket's international side, bad actors may be out of reach of US authorities.

换句话说，恭喜你。

In other words, congrats.

你找到了那个从事内幕交易的账户。

You found the account that was insider trading.

坏消息是，他们位于朝鲜。

The bad news is that they're located in North Korea.

不过，这些加密货币追踪工具有一个优势。

These crypto detectors have one advantage, though.

当你想把加密货币兑换成真金白银时，很难隐藏自己的身份。

It's tough to hide your identity when you want to cash out for real dollars.

很多人可能不知道，当你在受监管的机构兑换资金时，这个机构正是调查人员用来追踪链上地址和你真实身份之间关联的地方。

Many people you know, you're cashing in and cashing out at a regulated entity, and that regulated entity is where investigators would go to to identify, you know, that link between the on chain address and your your identity in the real world.

所以，Polymarket 想追踪内幕交易，但它更愿意事后玩捉迷藏，而不是去核实每个参与者的身份。

So Polymarket wants to track insider trading, but it would rather play a cat and mouse game after the fact than check the identities of everyone participating.

来自康涅狄格州的民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔认为，Polymarket 不能既拥有一个受美国监管的网站，又同时运营一个不受监管的海外网站。

Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, believes that Polymarket can't have it both ways, having both a US regulated website and an unregulated non US website.

他们本质上是一家美国公司。

They really are an American company.

他们确实拥有一个美国平台。

They do have an American platform.

他们说其中一个平台在境外，但这完全是假象，我们必须戳穿它。

They say one of their platforms is offshore, but that is a fiction that we need to cut through.

他还希望限制这些平台所能提供的市场类型。

He also wants to restrict the kinds of markets these platforms have.

总的来说，他想禁止那些容易被操纵的市场，以及威胁国家安全的市场。

Very broadly, he wants to ban markets that are susceptible to manipulation and those that threaten national security.

我认为，关于战争、暗杀这类事件的预测投注，应该被全面禁止——因为这些事件本身，或者涉及的信息性质，公众利益要求禁止这类合约。

I think there ought to be a ban on prediction market bets concerning wars, assassinations, certain kinds of events where because of the event itself or because of the kind of information that's involved, there's a public interest in banning those kinds of event contracts.

不过，对监管机构来说，关键问题是：什么样的监管才算过度？

The question for regulators, though, is how much regulation is too much regulation?

理查德提出的《2026年预测市场安全与完整性法案》是一项覆盖面极广的立法。

Richard's bill, the Prediction Market Security and Integrity Act of 2026, is a sweeping piece of legislation.

它打算把这些平台当作由州委员会监管的体育博彩公司来对待。

It would treat them more like sports books that are regulated by state commissions.

当然，FanDuel 和 DraftKings 就纯粹是赌博。

Of course, FanDuel and DraftKings are just gambling.

它们还会从每笔赌注中抽走很大一部分。

They also take a big chunk of each bet.

另一方面，虽然预测市场也涉及体育博彩，但抽成比例要低得多。

On the other hand, while prediction markets do have sports bets, they take a smaller cut.

而且它们还能帮助回答一些重大问题，比如下一任总统会是谁？

And they also help answer big questions like who's gonna be the next president?

那么，您认为这其中有经济价值吗？这种价值是否值得保留？

So do you see an economic utility in this, and is it important to preserve that?

首先，让我把话说清楚。

Well, first, let me make clear.

我不是要禁止赌博。

I'm not banning gambling.

我并不支持禁止赌博，也不打算废除预测市场。

I'm not in favor of prohibiting gambling, nor am I trying to abolish prediction markets.

而且它们之间的竞争可能是好事，能降低投注者的成本，让整个过程更透明、更公平。

And the competition between them may be a good thing if it cuts the cost to the bettors and makes the whole process more transparent and more fair.

我提出的法案旨在加强对在线赌博的监管，让预测市场更诚实、更透明，目的是保护消费者、赌客和普通民众，避免他们受到隐瞒信息、内幕交易和国家安全泄露等行为的伤害。

The laws that I proposed to provide for greater oversight to online gambling and to make the prediction markets more honest and transparent are designed to protect consumers, betters, everyday people from the kind of concealment, insider information, national security leaks that can harm the public interest.

监管机构还在摸索到底该管些什么。

Regulators are still figuring out what they should even regulate.

这正是我们给参议员看那些截图的原因。

This is where those screenshots come in that we shared with the senator.

他的法案会限制预测市场在广播电视上的广告，但不会限制社交媒体。

His bill would limit how prediction markets advertise on broadcast television, but not social media.

我们给他看了几个TikTok广告，其中就有这一个。

We showed him some TikTok ads, including this one.

你靠汽油价格上涨赚钱了？

You made money off of gas prices going up?

怎么做到的？

How?

老兄，我可是随时待命的。

Dude, I'm on call shit.

你可以对天气、体育、新闻、油价等各种现实世界的事物进行交易。

You can trade on stuff like weather, sports, news, gas prices, all kinds of real world stuff.

而且我

And I

我特别喜欢这一点，因为下单前就能看到潜在的回报。

love it because you can see the potential return before you even place a trade.

另一则广告里，一名女子声称她靠在Kalshi上的预测赚的钱交了房租。

Another ad showed a woman claiming she was able to pay her rent because of the money she made on Kalshi predictions.

在我看来，这些广告可能违反了现有的消费者保护法。

In my view, those ads potentially run afoul of existing consumer protection laws.

包括禁止虚假和误导性营销的联邦法律，以及各州与之对应的法规。

Federal laws that prohibit deceptive and misleading marketing, as well as state laws that mirror those federal laws.

他的意思是，现有的联邦法律其实已经可以适用于这类社交媒体广告。

His point is that there are existing federal laws that could be applied here to these types of social media ads.

我会采取行动，确保现行法律能被用来惩处当前仍在发生的违规行为。

And I'm gonna be taking action to make sure that laws are enforced against existing ongoing violations of the protections on the books right now.

很明显，预测市场对一位虽然提出过监管法案、却不是 TikTok 用户的参议员来说，也是一个全新的领域。

What's clear is that prediction markets are a new frontier even for a senator who proposed a law to regulate them but isn't a TikToker.

不过，也许理查德真该提升一下自己的社交媒体运营了。

Although, maybe Richard just needs to step up his social media game.

就像月球的背面一样。

It's like the dark side of the moon.

我猜过它可能存在，但没想到居然有这么多。

I suspected it was there, but I didn't know there was so much of it.

看来政界人士和平台还在摸索中。

So So it seems like the politicians and the platforms are still figuring it out.

本期节目由朱莉娅·里奇制作，音频工程由吉米·基利负责。

This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie with engineering by Jimmy Kealy.

内容核实由西耶拉·华雷斯完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

凯特和坎农负责剪辑，本节目由 NPR 制作。

Kate and Cannon edits the show, and the indicator is a production at NPR.

这是我们的杯子。

This is our glass.

在《美国生活》这个节目里，我们喜欢那种引人入胜的谜题。

On This American Life, one that we like is a good mystery.

有时候是关于大事，但大多数时候，那些小谜团才最精彩。

Sometimes it's about really big things, but most times, the little mysteries are the best.

我们失物招领处现在堆满了裤子。

Our lost and found is currently filled with pants.

我真不知道，这种事我从来没见过。

I don't know what I I I've never seen this happen.

等等。

Wait.

这是真的？

This is true?

是真的。

This is true.

每周都有各种规模的谜题，欢迎收听《美国生活》，在你常用的播客平台都能找到。

Mysteries of every size each week, This American Life, wherever you get your podcasts.

本周《考虑一下》节目，全球争夺人工智能主导权，让少数人赚得盆满钵满。

This week on Consider This, the global race to dominate AI has made a handful of people incredibly rich.

伯尼·桑德斯参议员想把这笔钱分给大家。

Senator Bernie Sanders wants to spread that money around.

人工智能的基础是人类的知识和劳动。

AI is based on human knowledge and human labor.

这些成果理应属于他们。

They deserve the benefits of that.

伯尼·桑德斯谈他提出的AI主权财富基金构想。

Bernie Sanders on his idea for an AI sovereign wealth fund.

本周《考虑一下》。

This week on Consider This.

请在NPR应用或你常用的播客平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.