被解雇的劳动经济学家无法获得失业数据

NPR。

NPR.

2025年8月，艾丽卡·麦克因特弗尔丢了工作。

In August 2025, Erica McIntarfur lost her job.

于是她跟很多刚失业的人一样，做了同样的事。

So she did what a lot of newly unemployed people do.

她去申请失业救济金。

She went to apply for unemployment benefits.

在申请初期，她需要验证自己的身份。

And early in the process, she had to verify her identity.

我申请的这个州，是用一个手机应用来完成的。

In the state that I was applying, it's an app that you download on your phone.

你要拍一张驾照的照片，再拍一张自拍，系统会比对确认是不是你本人。

You take a picture of your license, and then you take a selfie, and the software verifies that it's you.

听起来挺简单的。

Seems simple enough.

但艾丽卡在上传驾照照片时遇到了很多麻烦。

But Erica actually had a lot of trouble uploading a photo of her license to this app.

应用总是转圈，然后直接报错，说无法识别你的照片。

It would just sort of spin and then die and say failure to, like, register your picture.

我还试过调整光线。

And, I tried changing the lighting.

我甚至删了应用重新安装。

I tried deleting the app and reinstalling it.

我还去Reddit上查了查。

I went on Reddit.

艾丽卡给州失业办公室打了电话。

Erica called the state unemployment office.

他们让她再试试看，别放弃。

They told her to just keep trying the app.

实在太让人崩溃了，我卡在身份验证这一步，心想：你直接搜我名字不就得了。

It was so frustrating that I got stuck on the identity verification step because I was like, listen, Google me.

我们开个Zoom会议吧。

Let's get on a Zoom.

你可以看看我的脸。

You can look at my face.

我可是登上了《纽约时报》的头版。

I am literally on the front page of The New York Times.

是的。

Yeah.

因为当时Erica可以说是全美最出名的失业人士。

That's because Erica was arguably the most famous unemployed person in America at the time.

特朗普总统把她从劳工统计局局长的职位上给撤了。

President Trump had fired her from her job as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

这是《Planet Money》的《Indicator》节目。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是阿德里安·马。

I'm Adrian Ma.

我是韦隆·王。

And I'm Waylon Wong.

像艾莉卡这样的经济学家认为，美国的失业保险体系亟需改革。

Economists like Erica say The US unemployment insurance system is badly in need of improvement.

今天节目中，我们会分析当前体系的问题，并提出一些改进建议。

Today on the show, we diagnose what's wrong with the current system, and here's some ideas on how to fix it.

另外，我们也会了解艾莉卡那个应用最后有没有跑起来。

Plus, we learn if Erica ever got that app to work.

6月11日，全球最大的体育盛事——国际足联世界杯——将登陆北美。

On June 11, the globe's biggest sporting event comes to North America, the FIFA World Cup.

你说超级碗的观众大概一亿多，但世界杯决赛的观众数，差不多是它的五倍。

The Super Bowl, you might say, averages something over a 100,000,000 live viewers, but the World Cup final, think, like, five times that much.

夺冠热门、黑马球队，还有这项全球运动如何被美国文化影响。

The favorites, the underdogs, and the Americanization of the world's game.

赶紧打开NPR应用，收听Up First播客的周日特辑。

Listen now to the Sunday story from the Up First podcast on the NPR app.

美国失业保险系统最根本的问题是资金不足且严重过时。

The baseline problem with the American unemployment insurance system is that it's underfunded and outdated.

这是经济学家凯瑟琳·安·爱德华兹的观点。

That's according to economist Catherine Ann Edwards.

我觉得，对当今失业保险最直接的批评就是：我们完全能做得更好。

I think the real, probably most succinct criticism of the unemployment insurance today is that we can do so much better.

目前的系统由雇主缴纳联邦和州两级税款来提供资金。

The current system is funded by employers who pay both federal and state taxes.

当员工失业并成功申请后，他们会拿到一笔与之前收入挂钩的补助，每个州都有自己独立的项目。

When a worker loses their job and files a successful claim, they receive a payment that's based on what they were earning before, and each state runs its own program.

这套制度是从大萧条时期沿袭下来的。

This system came out of the Great Depression.

凯瑟琳说，当时让雇主为失业保险买单，就是为了让他们不敢轻易裁员。

Catherine says employers were asked to fund unemployment insurance so that they would be dissuaded from laying off workers.

当时的想法是，通过给失业者提供补助，让企业不得不为此买单，从而降低他们在生意清淡时随意裁员的动机。

They were trying to make it less lucrative for companies to lay off workers whenever business got slow by building in a benefit for those unemployed workers that those employers had to pay for.

但凯瑟琳指出，这个制度当初是为制造业工人设计的。

But one problem, Catherine says, is that the system was created with manufacturing workers in mind.

几十年前，企业在生意清淡时裁员，等业务回暖后再重新招人，是很常见的做法。

And decades ago, it was typical for employers to lay off people during slow times and rehire them when business picked up again.

如今，美国经济更偏向服务业，被裁员的人通常也不指望能回到原来的工作岗位。

Today, The US economy is more oriented towards services than manufacturing, and people who get laid off are not usually expecting to return to that job.

他们更可能去找新工作，甚至转行。

They're looking for a new employer or even a new career.

所以，这是现行制度的一个问题。

So that's one problem with the current system.

还有一个问题。

Here's another one.

因为每个州都独立管理自己的项目，工人能获得失业救济的资格、领取时长和金额都差异很大。

Because each state runs its own program, there is a lot of variation in how workers qualify for unemployment, how long the benefit lasts, and how much money they get.

凯瑟琳说，假设你和你的同事在同一公司上班，但你在一个州，而你的朋友在另一个州。

Catherine says, let's say you and your work bestie are employed by the same company, but you work in one state and your friend is in another.

不对。

No.

这简直太荒唐了，根本说不过去。

It's y'all, mean, it's criminal.

你想想，两个人干同样的工作，拿同样的工资，同一天被裁，结果一个人领的失业救济是你的四倍。

I mean, can you imagine you have the same job and the same wage and the same salary, and you both get laid off on the same day, and they get four times the unemployment as you.

要是社保也这么搞，你能想象吗？

Can you imagine if Social Security looked like that?

那老百姓早就闹翻天了。

I mean, people would riot.

所以不同州之间，失业救济金的数额差异可能非常大。

So depending on the state, there can be significant differences in how much unemployment benefits workers get.

申请流程的体验也千差万别。

There's also a range of experiences with the application process.

还记得那位经济学家艾丽卡·麦金塔弗吗？她当年被特朗普政府公开解雇，闹得沸沸扬扬。

Remember Erica McIntarfer, the economist who was famously fired by the Trump administration?

她尝试用手机应用上传驾照照片时，怎么也用不了，当时她正在马里兰州申请失业救济。

She couldn't get the mobile app to work when she tried uploading a photo of her driver's license, and she was filing for unemployment in Maryland.

埃丽卡说，她打电话给州失业办公室时，对方告诉她，只有手机应用这一种方式。

Erica said when she called the state unemployment office, she was told the mobile app was the only way.

我们联系了马里兰州劳工部。

We reached out to Maryland's Department of Labor.

发言人迪娜·温尼克告诉我们，身份验证是最近才加入的流程环节。

Spokeswoman, Dina Winnick, told us that the identity verification step is a relatively new part of the process.

她还说，州里其实也提供其他选择，比如视频通话或者亲自去办公室办理。

She also said the state does offer other options like video calls or visiting an office in person.

不管怎样，埃丽卡说她用了两周的手机应用，但那时候，工作机会已经找上门了。

Either way, Erica says she tried using the mobile app for two weeks, but by then, she was getting job offers.

我对失业能持续多久的焦虑慢慢减轻了。

I was becoming less anxious about how long I might be unemployed.

大约四分之一有资格领取失业保险的人，最终都没能成功提交申请。

About a fourth of people who qualify for UI never successfully file a claim.

我就是其中之一。

I was one of those.

我放弃了。

I threw in the towel.

如果 Maryland 劳工部的同事第一次在广播里听到这个故事，我向你们道歉。

Apologies to anyone at the Maryland Department of Labor who's hearing this story for the first time on the radio.

这完全是政府服务能力的问题。

It's, it's it's state capacity issues.

这绝对不是在指责那些在系统里工作的人。

It's it's no slight on the people who work in this system.

抛开服务能力不谈，Erica 还提到了另一个问题。

Capacity aside, Erica flags another problem.

失业人员拿到的钱太少了。

Workers aren't getting enough money.

福利有上限，而 Erica 说，在大多数州，这些上限根本没跟上通货膨胀。

There are caps on benefits, and Erica says in most states, these caps haven't kept up with inflation.

就像我们之前说的，失业金是根据工人以前的工资来计算的。

And like we said before, the payouts are based on a worker's prior wages.

埃里卡说，如今的补助金额已经跟不上工人们的实际开销了。

Erica says that today, the benefits aren't matching the reality of workers' expenses.

是的。

Yeah.

比如，埃里卡提到，加州软件工程师的 median 年薪是十七万美元。

For example, Erica says the median salary for a software developer in California is a $170,000 a year.

如果被裁员了，失业救济金只能覆盖他们收入的百分之十到十三。

If they get laid off, unemployment benefits would replace just 10 to 13% of their income.

打个比方，大多数人要把收入的百分之三十花在住房上。

Just to frame that, like, most people spend 30% of their income on shelter.

所以，如果你是加州的软件工程师被裁员了，失业金连你房租的三分之一都付不起。

So your UI is covering one third of your housing cost if you were laid off as a software developer in California.

这简直是太低的收入保障了。

That is a very low insurance rate for earnings.

她说，如果把这套体系更多地交由联邦统一管理，各州的资金和福利就会更一致。

She says federalizing the system more would make funding and benefits more consistent across states.

经济学家凯瑟琳·安·爱德华兹也支持更加强联邦化的结构。

And economist Catherine Ann Edwards is also in favor of a more federal structure.

她设想了三个层级，根据失业时间的长短来划分。

She envisions three tiers, depending on how long someone's been unemployed.

在每一个阶段，你都能获得下一档福利，这些福利都是根据你当前的失业状况量身设计的。

At every stage, you you're eligible kind of for the next level of benefits that is then designed to meet your unemployment situation.

福利在刚开始时最丰厚，但最多只持续六到十二周。

The benefits would be most generous at the beginning but be capped at six to twelve weeks.

长期失业的工人虽然拿到的钱会少一些，但能获得额外的服务，比如职业培训和搬家协助。

Workers facing longer term unemployment would get less money but additional services like training and assistance with relocating.

凯瑟琳还提出另一个重大改革：让更多的劳动者有资格申领福利。

Another big change Katherine proposes is that a much larger pool of workers would be eligible for benefits.

如今，雇主掌握着准入的决定权。

Today, employers are the gatekeepers.

他们负责审核一个人是否符合申领资格。

They certify whether someone qualifies for unemployment.

凯瑟琳希望所有失业的人都能获得资格，哪怕刚毕业的大学生一时找不到工作也包括在内。

Catherine wants anyone who's out of work to qualify, even a college graduate who can't afford a job.

凯瑟琳认为，社会对失业长期存在一种偏见。

And Catherine believes there's a long held stigma around unemployment.

领取这项福利的人常被说成是懒惰，或者占政府便宜。

People who collect this benefit are often painted as lazy or taking advantage of government generosity.

她也承认，领钱的人在失业期间通常会待得更久一些。

And she acknowledges that people who receive money when they're out of work do tend to be unemployed for longer.

到底久多久，大家说法不一，但差别其实很小。

How much longer is not really agreed upon, but it's marginal.

可能就多一两周而已。

Like, it could be a week or two.

这种担忧有点被夸大了，毕竟这只是一个临时性的、有时间限制的援助，针对的是突然失去收入的人。

The worry about that is somewhat overblown because it's a time limited temporary benefit to people who just had an income cut.

凯瑟琳认为，如果政府给失业者提供足够支付生活开销的钱，他们就能有空间去找到一份真正适合自己的工作。

The way Catherine sees it, if the government gives unemployed people the money they need to cover their expenses, they'll have the breathing room to find a new job that suits them.

工作和求职者匹配得越好，这位员工的生产力也就越高。

And the better the match between the job seeker and the job, the more productive that worker will be.

我们对待失业者的方式是，一旦丢了工作，就指望你从头再来，但实际上，在我们的经济体系里，从头再来代价非常高昂。

The way that we treat unemployed people is if you lose your job, we expect you to start over when in fact starting over is a very costly costly process in our economy.

所以，这实际上是一种让经济更高效的做法。

And so this is a way to essentially make our economy more efficient.

于是我就得戴上我那顶小小的经济学家王冠，披上绶带，说：嘿，你没必要喜欢失业者。

And so then I get to put on my little like economist tiara and sash and say like, hey, you don't have to like unemployed people.

事实上，你尽管讨厌他们好了。

In fact, go on hating them.

这纯粹是为了打造一个更高效、更有生产力的经济。

This is just about a more efficient productive economy.

然后

And then

音乐响起，美国国旗在你身后飘扬。

cue the music and then the American flag is like flapping behind you.

美国二百五十。

America two fifty.

我觉得该给经济学家发奖冠和绶带了。

I think they should start handing out these economist tiaras in the sashes.

我觉得教授戴起来挺合适的。

I think that would be a good look for the professor.

你觉得呢？

You think

咱们该办个经济学家选美比赛吗？

we should have economist pageants?

对。

Yeah.

才艺展示环节，你得画个图表。

It's like now for the talent portion, you're gonna draw a graph.

这么多图表。

So many graphs.

这么多图表。

So many graphs.

如果你想知道被解雇的劳工统计局前局长埃里卡·麦金塔弗现在在哪，她现在在斯坦福大学。

And if you're wondering what happened to Erica McIntarfer, the fired head of the BLS, She's now at Stanford University.

她目前研究的一个课题是如何让经济更好地应对人工智能带来的冲击。

And one of the topics she's working on is how to prepare the economy for AI related disruptions.

她说，改革失业保险体系应该是这场讨论的一部分。

She says overhauling the unemployment insurance system should be part of that conversation.

本集由朱莉娅·里奇和库珀·卡茨·麦基姆制作，音频工程由西娜·洛弗雷多负责。

This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie and Cooper Katz McKim with engineering by Sina Lofredo.

内容由西耶拉·华雷斯核对。

It's fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

基克·坎农是本节目的编辑，《指标》是NPR出品。

Kicking Cannon is our show's editor, and the Indicator is a production of NPR.

本周《NPR新闻人物》专访前第一夫人吉尔·拜登。

This week on NPR's Newsmakers, former first lady Jill Biden.

她透露，乔·拜登在2024年辩论中的表现令人极度担忧，下台后医生立即对他进行了检查。

She reveals Joe Biden's twenty twenty four debate performance was so alarming, doctors checked him after he got off the stage.

我当时吓坏了。

I was terrified.

我心里想，天哪。

I thought, oh my god.

这是怎么了？

What's happening?

他是不是中风了？

Is this a stroke?

这到底是什么情况？

What is this?

接下来的一个月充满戏剧性，最终促使拜登做出了总统任期内最重大的决定之一——退出竞选。

Inside, the dramatic month that followed leading to one of the biggest decisions of Biden's presidency to walk away.

本周《新闻人物》节目，您可以通过

This week on newsmakers, you can listen or watch

任何

wherever

平台

you

收听或观看。

get your podcasts.