SpaceX IPO 风波解析

NPR。

NPR.

SpaceX 计划这周晚些时候上市。

SpaceX is preparing to go public later this week.

这次上市将使 SpaceX 成为全球最大的公司之一。

The debut will mint SpaceX as one of the largest companies in the world.

这将是史上规模最大的首次公开募股。

It will be the biggest initial public offering or IPO ever.

市场上的这一大动作引发了不少重大问题。

This big splash in the markets leads to some big questions.

比如，这家公司真能让人类的意识超越地球吗？

Like, will this company really extend human consciousness beyond Earth?

还有更现实的问题。

And more earthly questions.

比如，SpaceX 在交易所有没有得到特殊待遇？

Like, is SpaceX receiving special treatment from its stock exchange?

这正是我们今天要探讨的问题。

That's the question we're focusing on.

这里是《指标》，来自《星球金钱》。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是里基·穆尔维。

I'm Ricky Mulvey.

我是达里安·伍兹。

And I'm Darian Woods.

今天节目中，我们聚焦SpaceX的IPO，以及一项彻底颠覆数学规则的政策调整。

Today on the show, we're looking at the SpaceX IPO and a rule change that turns math upside down.

现在，一竟然等于三了。

One now apparently equals three.

你放心，完全不用算数学。

We promise you don't have to do math.

广告之后，我们继续深入。

We've got hold of it after the break.

本广告由Wise提供，这是一款专为全球跨境用户设计的理财应用。

This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe.

只需轻点几下，就能轻松转账、消费和收款，支持多达40种货币。

You can send, spend, and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps.

聪明一点。

Be smart.

用Wise，更明智。

Get wise.

立即下载Wise应用，或访问wise.com。

Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com.

条款细则适用。

Ts and cs apply.

我是埃里克·格拉斯。

This is Eric Glass.

在《美国生活》这档节目中，我们特别喜欢那些引人入胜的悬疑故事。

On This American Life, one that we like is a good mystery.

有时候是关于特别大的事，但大多数时候，那些小谜团才最有趣。

Sometimes it's about really big things, but most times, the little mysteries are

最棒的。

the best.

我们的失物招领处现在堆满了裤子。

Our lost and found is currently filled with pants.

我真的不知道，这种事我从来没见过。

I don't know what I I I've never seen this happen.

等一下。

Wait.

这真的吗？

This is true?

是真的。

This is true.

每周都有各种大小的谜团，欢迎收听《This American Life》，在你常用的播客平台都能找到。

Mysteries of every size each week, This American Life, wherever you get your podcasts.

SpaceX的股票即将登陆公开市场，准确地说，是公司一小部分股份进入公开交易。

SpaceX stock is hitting public markets or really a sliver of the company is hitting public markets.

SpaceX在IPO中计划出售约4%的股份。

SpaceX is offering about 4% of its shares in its IPO.

公司其余的股份仍由埃隆·马斯克、SpaceX员工和私人投资者持有，普通公众无法触及。

The rest of the company is still owned beyond the reach of the public by Elon Musk, SpaceX employees, and private investors.

亚历克斯·马图里曾是标普道琼斯指数公司的首席执行官。

Alex Maturi is the former CEO of S and P Dow Jones Indices.

你可能已经持有标普500指数这一热门指数的一部分。

You may own a piece of that company's hit index, the S and P 500.

亚历克斯说，公司上市的原因已经发生了变化。

Alex says the reasons why a company goes public has changed.

过去，IPO主要是为了融资。

Historically, IPOs were a way of of raising capital.

那时候，企业上市时规模都小得多。

So when a company went public, they're much, much smaller.

上市一直以来都是让早期投资者套现的方式，但以前公司公开发行股票是为了建工厂、扩大业务。

An IPO has always been a way to cash out earlier investors, but companies used to issue public stock to build factories expand their businesses.

现在像SpaceX这样的公司，光靠私人资金就能成长为市值上万亿美元的巨头。

Now companies like SpaceX can grow into trillion dollar behemoths with private dollars.

所以对它们来说，上市不一定是为了筹集新资金。

So for them coming public isn't necessarily to raise new capital.

更多是为了让内部股东、员工和早期投资者能把手里的股份变现，同时也给公司估值定个实实在在的价格。

It's a way to, you know, monetize their shares, give their internal shareholders, employees, and such, early investors a way to start liquidating some of it and putting a a a true price on the value of their company.

SpaceX根本不需要你的退休金来造下一级火箭，但这次上市给了早期投资者套现的机会。

SpaceX doesn't need your retirement money to build its next rocket, but this gives early investors the chance to cash out.

公司向公众释放一小部分股权，主要是为了给整个企业定个合理的价格。

And the company is offering up a little bit of ownership to the public to find a price for the whole thing.

现在纳斯达克刚刚修改了纳入纳斯达克100指数的公司筛选规则。

Now the NASDAQ just changed its rules on how it adds companies to its index, the NASDAQ 100.

这个指数主要由在交易所交易的大型科技公司组成。

It's mostly a collection of big tech companies that trade on the exchange.

SpaceX 预计将加入这个俱乐部。

SpaceX is expected to join this club.

这些规则是在 SpaceX 上市前一个月才出台的，大家都知道，这些调整会推高对 SpaceX 股票的需求。

These rules came into being just a month before the SpaceX IPO, And it's no secret these rule changes will increase the demand for SpaceX stock.

埃隆·马斯克是个特别的人物，他享受着特殊的待遇。

Elon Musk is a very special person who gets special rules.

没错，达里安。

Absolutely, Darian.

其他公司，比如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，如果上市，也很可能从这些规则变化中受益。

And other companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will likely benefit from these rule changes if they go public.

第一个变化是，纳斯达克大幅缩短了大型公司进入其前百大公司指数所需的时间。

The first rule change is that the NASDAQ dramatically reduced the time it takes for a big company to enter the index of its 100 largest companies.

以前，纳斯达克每年才调整一次前百大公司的名单。

Previously, the NASDAQ added and deleted companies from its top 100 index once per year.

如果一家新公司想加入，至少得交易几个月才行。

If a new company wanted to join the club, it had to trade for at least a few months.

纳斯达克直接取消了这一规定。

The NASDAQ threw that out.

现在，新公司最快三周就能进入纳斯达克百大指数。

Now a new company can join the NASDAQ one hundred in as little as three weeks.

不用再等一年一度的调整了。

No need to wait for the annual meeting.

标普500指数还没改规则，依然不轻易让新公司加入。

The S and P five hundred has not changed its rules on letting companies into its S and P five hundred club.

前首席执行官亚历克斯·马图里说，设置等待期是有道理的。

Former CEO Alex Mathurie says there's a reason for a waiting period.

公司刚上市时股价波动特别大，就像个爱哭闹的新生儿。

Stocks bounce up and down a lot just after they go public, and the stock is kind of like a fussy newborn.

他认为，纳斯达克没给SpaceX足够的时间稳定下来。

He thinks that the NASDAQ isn't giving SpaceX enough time to settle down.

你看大多数IPO，这个大概也不例外，刚上市那会儿总会有一阵子混乱。

If you look at most IPOs, and this one's probably no exception, you know, you get a lot of dislocations early on.

对吧？

Right?

股价一下子就冲上去了。

The price runs up.

然后又暴跌。

It collapses.

你得等到它稳定下来，不再大起大落。

You wanna get to a point where there's a lot of more steady state.

所以第一个担忧是，SpaceX和其他大型IPO公司还没稳定下来，就被急着拉进纳斯达克100指数了。

So the first concern is that SpaceX then other big IPOs will be rushed into the NASDAQ one hundred club before they settle down.

但这还不是最重要的实质性变化。

But that's not the most important real change.

我一听这声音就知道是坎贝尔·哈维，杜克大学的金融学教授，就是那位发现国债收益率曲线能预测经济衰退的经济学家。

I would recognize that voice from a mile away, Campbell Harvey, the finance professor at Duke University, the economist who figured out that the treasury yield curve could help predict recessions.

没错，我们之前确实找他聊过几次收益率曲线的事。

And, yes, we've called him a few times to talk about the yield curve.

这正是坎贝尔在经济学界成名的原因之一。

It's one of Campbell's claims to economic fame.

接到电话讨论收益率曲线以外的经济话题，你开心吗？

How happy are you to get a call to discuss an economic topic other than the yield curve?

我当然很高兴。

I'm very happy about that.

收益率曲线只是我众多研究方向中的一个。

So the yield curve is only one of my research ideas.

它在媒体上最火，但在学术圈里，它排第21位。

It's the most popular in the media, but amongst academics, it's, number 21.

他不满的是纳斯达克现在如何计算指数中公司的规模。

His beef is with how the NASDAQ now counts the size of the companies in its index.

最重要的规则变化就是所谓的自由流通股。

The most important rule change was, the so called free float.

自由流通股指的是这家公司有多少股份可供公众购买。

Free float just means how much of this company is available for sale to the general public.

SpaceX的流通股只占公司总股本的4%。

The float for SpaceX is 4% of the company.

这意味着投资者只能在公开市场上交易 SpaceX 4% 的股份。

This means that investors can only trade 4% of SpaceX on public markets.

但纳斯达克认为，这个比例并不能真实反映该公司在指数中的规模。

But the NASDAQ is saying that percentage doesn't really represent the size of the company for its index.

当 SpaceX 被纳入纳斯达克一百指数时，系统会按三倍于实际流通股的数量来计算它的权重。

Instead, when SpaceX is added to the NASDAQ one hundred, it will weigh the company as if three times the number of shares are available for sale.

所以乘以三，就是12%。

So multiply by three and you get 12%.

这样一来，指数基金投资者的需求会增加，因为他们必须按12%的比例来配置，而不是4%。

So what this will do is increase the demand by the index investors, because they need to match that 12% rather than 4%.

那这到底意味着什么？

So what does this mean?

你可以把指数基金想象成一种共同基金，里面包含了很多种股票。

Think of an index fund like a mutual fund where you have lots of stocks altogether.

所以这些只跟踪指数的基金，就得按三倍于实际流通股的数量来买入 SpaceX 的股票。

So these funds that just track the index will have to buy SpaceX stock as if the company offered triple the number of shares than they actually did.

这种指数计算方法合理吗？

Is this index methodology?

这算不算心理操控？

Is it gaslighting?

这个播客真有三十分钟那么长吗？

Is this podcast really thirty minutes long?

我能跑出三分钟一英里的成绩吗？

Can I run a three minute mile?

数字真的有意义吗？

Do numbers mean anything?

这种不平衡不会一直持续下去。

This imbalance won't last forever.

一些 SpaceX 员工会逐步获准出售他们的股票，这样流通股就会慢慢增加。

Some SpaceX employees will be allowed to sell their shares over time, so more will come public.

但这些规则还是会制造一种机械性的失衡。

But still, these rules can create a mechanical imbalance.

坎贝尔估计，有一半对SpaceX股票的需求，来自那些投资者和基金必须假装4%等于12%。

Campbell estimates that half of the demand for SpaceX shares will come from those investors and funds having to pretend that 4% is really 12%.

这会带来什么影响？

What will that do?

这会让股价上涨。

That will increase the price.

等到普通投资者进场时，价格已经被这种需求推高了。

And by the time the retail investor gets into the market, the price will be inflated by this demand.

纳斯达克在一份公开声明中表示，新规则是对旧系统的改进，旧系统可能在大型IPO后迫使指数基金买入更多股票。

In a public statement, the NASDAQ says the new rules are an improvement on the old system, which could have forced index funds to buy even more stock after big IPOs.

但坎贝尔认为，整个纳斯达克指数存在一个根本性缺陷。

But Campbell says the whole NASDAQ index has a fundamental flaw.

它应该只根据公开流通股份的价值来评估公司。

It should only value companies based on the value of shares available to the public.

在这种情况下，就是4%。

In this case, 4%.

所以总结一下，纳斯达克在市场波动期间正迅速把新公司加入它的指数。

So to summarize, the NASDAQ is quickly adding new companies to its index during a volatile time.

同时，它又声称那些只向公众提供少量股权的大型公司，会被当作提供了三倍股份来计算。

Simultaneously, it's saying that big companies that offer a small slice of ownership to the public will be represented as if they are offering triple the number of shares.

这可能会引发一波需求热潮。

This could create a demand storm.

顺便说一下，我们多次通过邮件和电话联系过纳斯达克，但他们拒绝接受录音采访。

By the way, we did reach out to NASDAQ multiple times via email and on the phone, but they would not offer a recorded interview.

我们还问过他们，这些新规则到底是帮了还是害了散户投资者，但他们没给答复。

We also asked them if these new rules will help or harm retail investors, and we did not get an answer.

坎贝尔认为，这个案例揭示了一个更大的问题。

Campbell believes this story highlights a bigger problem.

其实，散户投资者一直没法参与像SpaceX这样的科技巨头的成长。

See, retail investors haven't been able to participate in the growth of massive tech companies like SpaceX.

这家公司一直保持私有，但估值却一路飙升。

The company stayed private while its value skyrocketed.

只有那些被称为合格投资者的人，才能购买这些公司的股票。

The only people outside these companies who can buy shares, they're called accredited investors.

说白了，就是你得收入很高，或者已经是百万富翁。

That basically means you make a lot of money or you're a millionaire.

所以如果你有钱，第一个好处是可以分散投资组合，这谁不想要呢？

So if you're rich, you get the opportunity to, number one, diversify your portfolio, which we all wanna do.

第二个好处是，你能提前入场。

And number two, you're able to get in early.

那么问题来了，普通人在人工智能时代，该怎么分享这些大型私营公司的增长红利？

So one question is, how can regular people benefit from the growth of massive private companies, especially in the age of AI?

你知道的。

You know?

也许Gemini或者ChatGPT能想出办法。

Maybe Gemini or ChatGPT can figure it out.

嘿。

Hey.

你忘了埃隆·马斯克的那个AI，Grok了。

You forgot about Grock, Elon Musk's AI.

天哪。

Oh, man.

那个也不错。

That'd be a good one too.

顺便说一下，如果你想了解更多关于如何从AI财富增长中获益，以及那些旨在让普通人受益的AI征税方案，可以听听昨天那期关于AI股息的节目。

By the way, if you wanna learn more about growing AI wealth and proposals to tax AI that aim to benefit regular people, check out yesterday's episode about an AI dividend.

本期节目由朱莉娅·里奇制作，技术由玛吉·卢瑟负责，内容由艾玛·费拉拉核对。

This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie with engineering by Maggie Luther, who's fact checked by Emma Ferrara.

凯特和卡农负责剪辑，《Indicator》是NPR出品的节目。

Kate and Cannon edits the show and the Indicator is a production of NPR.

6月11日，全球最大的体育赛事——世界杯将登陆北美。

On June 11, the globe's biggest sporting event comes to North America, the FIFA World Cup.

超级碗的观众人数平均超过一亿，但世界杯决赛，那可是它的五倍左右。

The Super Bowl, you might say, averages something over a 100,000,000 live viewers, but the World Cup final, think, like, five times that much.

夺冠热门、黑马球队，还有这项全球运动的美国化趋势。

The favorites, the underdogs, and the Americanization of the world's game.

现在就打开NPR应用，收听《Up First》播客的周日特辑吧。

Listen now to the Sunday story from the Up First podcast on the NPR app.