Think the oil shock is bad in the US? Look here

NPR。

NPR.

这是《星球金钱》的指标。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是达伦·伍兹，今天邀请到制片人库珀·卡茨·麦金。

I'm Darren Woods joined today by producer Cooper Katz McKim.

达伦·伍兹，你好。

Darren Woods, hello.

欢迎来到演播室。

Welcome to the studio.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们已经进入中东地区战争的第七周，但没有人能置身事外。

We're now seven weeks into a war focused in The Middle East, yet no one is free from its impact.

霍尔木兹海峡的关闭引发了严重的供应链中断。

The closure of the Strait Of Hormuz has caused a seismic supply disruption.

这说得通。

It makes sense.

全球约20%的石油经过霍尔木兹海峡。

About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait Of Hormuz.

影响是，油价飙升，在美国宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡伊朗港口的消息传出后，油价再次突破每桶100美元。

And the impact, oil prices have skyrocketed with another jump above a $100 a barrel after news of The US blockade of Iranian ports in The Strait.

上周，我们听到了美国人因油价高涨而感到压力的故事。

Last week, we heard stories of Americans feeling the pinch of high oil prices.

但在世界其他地区，人们正面临停电、燃油配给，甚至担心石油会彻底耗尽。

But in other parts of the world, people are facing blackouts, fuel rationing, even concerns of actually running out of oil completely.

所以在今天的节目中，我们来看看三个国家如何应对这场全球石油危机。

So in today's episode, how three nations are handling the global oil crisis.

我们关注新西兰——那里的燃油库存令人担忧；津巴布韦——正面临非洲最高的燃油价格之一；以及中国——它实际上应对得相当不错。

We look at New Zealand where fuel stocks are worryingly low, Zimbabwe who's facing one of the highest fuel prices in Africa, and China, who is actually handling the situation pretty well.

当我们的政党成为我们看待自身其他所有身份的滤镜时，会发生什么？

Happens when our political party becomes the prism through which we see every other aspect of our identities?

我认为，我们正在经历的是两个政党在是否要继续推进这种社会进步，还是想要回到过去的问题上持对立立场。

What we're living through, I think, is really the two parties taking opposite sides on whether we wanna keep making this type of social progress or whether we wanna go back in time.

请在NPR应用程式或您收听播客的任何平台收听NPR的Code Switch播客。

Listen to NPR's Code Switch Podcast in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

我们的故事从我们主持人达里安·伍兹的故乡开始。

Our story begins in the homeland of our very own host, Darien Woods.

这不仅仅是因为那是我的故乡。

And not just because it's my homeland.

我们对新西兰感到好奇，因为它的处境特别脆弱。

Now we were curious about New Zealand because it's particularly vulnerable.

尽管新西兰是一个高收入国家，但它却位于石油供应链的末端。

Despite being a higher income nation, it sits at the end of a supply chain for oil.

为了了解他们的情况，我们实际上联系了你过去生活中的一位人士。

To learn how they're doing, we actually reached out to someone from your past life.

达里安？

Darien?

埃里克·克拉姆普顿。

Eric Crampton.

达里安·伍兹。

Darien Woods.

已经过去一段时间了。

It's been some time.

所以坦白说，你曾经教过我一门本科经济学课程。

And so full disclosure, you taught one of my courses in undergraduate economics.

你给他打了多少分？

What did you grade him?

你可以坦白说的。

You can you can admit it.

哦，达里安表现很棒。

Oh, Darren did great.

听到这个真好。

Good to hear.

很高兴听到他还记得。

Good to hear he remembers.

让我们看看 transcripts。

Let's see the transcripts.

是的。

Yeah.

埃里克现在是新西兰倡议组织的首席经济学家，这是一个支持市场的公共政策智库。

Eric is now the chief economist at the New Zealand Initiative, which is a pro market public policy think tank.

埃里克解释了为什么新西兰如此容易受到此类能源冲击的影响。

And Eric explains why New Zealand is so vulnerable to an energy shock like this.

我们完全依赖从海外进口的精炼能源供应，主要来自韩国、新加坡，然后其他地方的杂七杂八。

We're entirely reliant on refined supplies coming in from overseas, and that's primarily South Korea, Singapore, and then rats and mice from everywhere else.

这是新西兰的说法吗？

Is this a New Zealandism?

这到底是什么意思？

What what does this mean?

是的。

Yeah.

老鼠和小动物，微不足道的小东西。

Rats and mice, small insignificant thing.

所以其他地方的量很少。

So small amounts elsewhere.

因此，韩国和新加坡的石油都来自中东。

So both South Korea and Singapore get oil from The Middle East.

结果是，新西兰的柴油价格上涨了约70%，达到每加仑7.27美元（美国等值）。

And the result is that in New Zealand, diesel prices have gone up roughly 70% to The US equivalent of $7.27 per gallon.

柴油对新西兰经济至关重要。

And diesel is critical to the New Zealand economy.

它支撑着食品生产、分销以及重要物资的运输，而且几乎没有简单的替代方案。

It's behind food production, distribution, the movement of essential goods, and there's really no easy alternative.

而且成本并不是唯一的担忧。

And cost isn't the only concern.

新西兰也担心石油供应不足。

New Zealand is also worried about having enough oil.

韩国已经限制了其出口量。

South Korea has already put a cap on how much they'll export.

是的。

Yeah.

新西兰民众非常清楚本国储备还剩多少石油。

And people in New Zealand are very aware of how much is left in the reserves.

事实上，有几个网站专门关注这个问题。

In fact, there's several websites devoted to that question.

其中一个网站叫 FuelClock。

One of them is called FuelClock.

是的。

Yeah.

它用醒目的红色倒计时显示，按当前消耗速度，截至本录音时，新西兰仅剩27天的航空燃油。

It has this ominous countdown in red, and it shows at current rates of usage, New Zealand only has, as of this recording, twenty seven days left of jet fuel.

它还列出了柴油。

It also lists diesel.

我们不习惯看到，嗯，只剩一个半月，然后就没法开车了。

We're not used to looking at, well, here's a month and a half, and then nobody can drive around.

更重要的是，食品无法从仓库运到超市货架上。

More importantly, groceries can't get from warehouses to the grocery shelves.

这可能会非常糟糕。

That could be very bad.

好的。

Alright.

所以石油和汽油价格（我们那里叫 petrol）很高。

So oil and gasoline prices or petrol as we call it there are high.

供应量非常紧张。

Supplies are uncomfortably thin.

与此同时，政府正面临压力，需要采取各种措施，比如配给、降低燃油税或补贴燃油。

And meanwhile, the government is facing pressure to take all kinds of action, maybe rationing, cutting the fuel tax, or subsidizing fuel.

到目前为止，他们一直抵制住压力

And they've resisted pressures so far

干预汽油或我们所说的燃油价格，而澳大利亚已经降低了燃油税。

to intervene in gas prices or petrol prices, as you call them, unlike Australia who's already cut fuel taxes.

如果你这么做，政府就必须说：各位，

If you do that, then the government has to say, hey, everybody.

我们知道现在价格更低了，但请务必，务必减少使用，即使价格更低了。

We know that the price is now lower, but please, please use less of it even though the price is lower.

让价格上涨实际上能鼓励人们减少需求。

Letting prices rise really encourages people to cut back on demand.

话虽如此，新西兰政府已加大对低收入和中等收入有孩家庭的支持。

That said, the New Zealand government has boosted support for low and middle income families with children.

所以目前，新西兰仍有燃油供应。

So for now, New Zealand does have fuel.

但到了六月，埃里克说，就出现了一个问题。

But come June, Eric says there is a question.

我开始担心国际航班可能不愿意飞来这里，因为他们会担心能否加到油。

I start seeing risk of things like international flights not wanting to come here because they'd be worried about whether they can refuel.

所以达里安，你可能想再等几个月再回家。

So Darian, you may want to wait a few more months to travel home.

是的。

Yeah.

这有点令人担忧。

That's slightly worrying.

尽管新西兰的处境并不理想，但它是一个高收入国家，有能力竞购高价汽油。

And while New Zealand is not in a good position, it is a higher income nation that can afford to bid on higher gasoline prices.

但对于津巴布韦等低收入国家来说，情况并非如此，它们也完全依赖石油进口。

That's not the case for lower income countries like Zimbabwe, who are also reliant entirely on oil imports.

对。

Right.

所以津巴布韦和新西兰一样，都受制于外部力量。

So Zimbabwe, much like New Zealand, is at the whim of external forces.

他们看到汽油价格在不到一个月内上涨了40%，达到非洲最高甚至最高的水平。

They've seen gas prices rise 40% in less than a month to one of the highest, if not the highest, in Africa.

杰拉尔德·马切卡是位于首都哈拉雷的一位经济学家。

Gerald Macheca is an economist located in the capital Harare.

他说情况正在迅速变化。

He says things are changing fast.

二月份的汽油价格是每升1.52美元。

Fuel in February was for petrol, it was $1.52.

现在每升已涨到2.23美元。

It's now at $2.23 per liter.

这听起来可能不多，但相当于每加仑8美元。

That may not sound like a lot, but it is the equivalent of $8 a gallon.

而津巴布韦人平均每年收入不到2500美元。

And Zimbabweans make less than $2,500 per person on average each year.

柴油价格也上涨了近20%，这在津巴布韦经济依赖石油和天然气的情况下是个大问题。

Diesel prices too have gone up nearly 20%, and that's a problem when Zimbabwe's economy depends on oil and gas.

其主要产业是采矿和农业，这些行业需要燃料来驱动机器并运输货物。

Its main industries are mining and agriculture, which need fuel to power their machines and transport their goods.

人们正在感受到这种影响。

And people are feeling the impact.

消费品的价格已经上涨，公共交通的价格也是如此。

The price of consumer goods is already higher, even the price of public transportation.

想象一下，乘坐公共交通工具，但现在票价翻了一倍甚至三倍，而你的收入却没有翻倍或三倍增长。

So imagine, using public transportation, but now it doubles or it triples, but your income is not doubling or tripling.

津巴布韦正处于一个微妙的境地。

Zimbabwe is in a delicate position.

该国背负着沉重的债务，应对外部冲击的空间非常有限。

The country has been loaded with debt and has little room for external shocks.

政府正在走钢丝，一方面试图通过燃油税等方式增加财政收入，另一方面又不想给民众带来过大压力。

The government is walking the tightrope between trying to fund itself through things like fuel taxes, while also not putting too much pressure on citizens.

不幸的是，消费者已经感受到了痛苦。

Unfortunately, consumers are already feeling the pain.

津巴布韦的燃油价格超过了其邻国。

Zimbabwe's fuel prices are outpacing their neighbors.

在北部边境，赞比亚公民的燃油价格低了40%。

Across the northern border, Zambia citizens are paying 40% less on fuel.

这对杰拉尔德来说令人沮丧。

That's frustrating for Gerald.

政府迅速做出反应，降低了税收，以缓解民众的压力。

The government was quick to respond and reduce the taxes, you know, to cushion their citizens.

但在津巴布韦，这种情况根本没有发生。

Whilst in Zimbabwe's case, nothing like that happened.

对。

Right.

自石油危机开始以来，政府一直未调整燃油税。

There are significant taxes on fuel that the government hasn't changed since the oil crisis began.

津巴布韦已降低了柴油税，这对保护工业、控制消费品价格至关重要。

Zimbabwe has cut taxes on diesel, which is big for protecting industry, keeping consumer prices down.

他们还考虑在石油中添加更多乙醇，以期降低加油站油价。

They're also considering adding more ethanol to oil in hopes of reducing prices at the pump.

新西兰和津巴布韦都受制于远超其国界的油价和供应链。

New Zealand and Zimbabwe are both at the whim of oil prices and supply chains that extend far beyond them.

另一方面，中国目前感觉对局势的掌控力更强一些。

China, on the other hand, is feeling a little bit more in control right now.

我们采访了中国 beige book 的首席运营官沙萨德·卡齐，以了解那里的情况。

We spoke to Shasad Qazi, the chief operating officer at the China Beige Book, to understand what's going on there.

他说，这个东亚国家是全球最大的石油消费国之一，非常依赖进口。

He says the East Asian country is one of the biggest oil consumers in the world and is very dependent on imports.

此外

Plus

中国购买了大约80%，甚至高达90%的伊朗石油。

China buys up around 80, maybe even 90% off Iranian oil.

这高得离谱。

That is wildly high.

尽管如此，你可能会认为中国处于一个岌岌可危的境地。

All that said, you might think China is in a precarious position.

但她并不这么认为。

Well, she disagrees.

当你将中国与世界上任何其他国家，尤其是任何其他亚洲经济体相比时，中国在应对当前危机方面显然占据着最有利的位置。

When you compare China to any other country in the world and certainly any other Asian economy, they are by far the best situated to deal with the current crisis.

这绝非偶然。

And this is no accident.

中国有意识地为这种能源冲击做好了准备，部分原因在于它是全球的工厂。

China has prepared itself deliberately against an energy shock like this, in part because they are the factory of the world.

你可不希望整个经济因为油价波动而陷入混乱。

You don't want your whole economy to be thrown off because oil prices change.

因此，他们建立了石油储备，在油价低廉时购入，并囤积了足以维持三到六个月的库存。

So they built up their oil reserves, buying the resource when it's cheap and building a stockpile estimated to last between three and six months.

沙扎德表示，中国还通过能源多元化来保护自身。

Shazad says China has also protected itself through energy diversity.

中国大部分电力来自煤炭。

Much of China's power runs on coal.

正如我们在节目中提到的，中国还在太阳能、电动汽车和电气化方面进行了大量投资。

As we've covered on the show, China has also invested heavily in solar power, electric vehicles, and electrification.

中国在进口石油方面还有一个独特的优势。

China also has the benefit of a unique arrangement in importing oil.

这种优势在于，它从受到制裁的国家购买更便宜的石油，比如俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗。

Unique because it buys up cheaper oil from sanctioned countries, Russia, Venezuela, Iran.

尽管存在战争，中国仍在从伊朗进口石油。

Even though there's a war, China continues to get oil from Iran.

美国对这些国家实施制裁、试图摧毁其经济的政策，反而对中国经济体产生了意想不到但极其积极的影响，因为这使中国能够以远低于其他市场参与者的成本获得这一至关重要的自然资源。

The upside of Americans policy to sanction these countries and trying to crush their economies has had this unintended but yet immensely positive impact for the Chinese economy because it's given them access to this very critical natural resource at prices that are certainly well below what what other market players have to pay for.

面对巨大的全球能源冲击，中国目前显得非常精明。

Overall, China looks very shrewd right now in the face of a massive global energy shock.

如果现在有谁在受益，那毫无疑问就是他们。

If anybody's winning right now, it's it's it's most certainly them.

我认为这帮助他们认识到，坚持这种经济自给自足的策略是非常明智的。

And I think it has helped them understand that they were very smart to keep this heavy focus on this economic self sufficiency.

好的。

Okay.

那么，达伦，我们来看看新西兰。

So, Darren, we have New Zealand.

对。

Yes.

一个在应对供应短缺时抵制价格干预的国家。

A country pushing back against price intervention as it weathers a supply shortage.

我们还有津巴布韦，那里的领导层正在想办法减轻民众负担，同时保护经济。

We have Zimbabwe, where leadership is figuring out how to ease the burden on its citizens while protecting the economy.

还有中国，它为这样的时刻做好了充分准备。

And we have China, who is very well prepared for a moment just like this.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，这三个故事表明，无论你的国家是否与中东有任何关联，影响都无处不在。

So just three stories that show that whether or not your country is involved at all with The Middle East, the effects are being felt everywhere.

现在，库珀，这对你来说是特别令人兴奋的一周。

Now, Cooper, this is a particularly exciting week for you.

确实如此。

It really is.

因为你一直在幕后为《指示器》制作我们自己的简报。

Because you've been working behind the scenes to create a newsletter for The Indicator, our very own newsletter.

是的。

Yeah.

它基本上会是《指示器》的一个版本，直接送到你的邮箱里，我们会回答听众的问题、发布互动邀请，并透露我们不在话筒前时讨论的内容。

So it'll basically be a version of the indicator, in your inbox, we answer listener questions, put out callouts, and reveal what we talk about when we're not on mic.

这是一封轻松有趣的邮件，第一期将在本周五发布。

It's a fun bite sized email, and the first one comes out this Friday.

所以听众现在就可以注册，成为首批订阅者。

So listeners can be among the first, and they can sign up right now.

注册链接在节目笔记中。

The sign up link is in the show notes.

本集由科里·布里奇斯制作，由夸西·李负责音频工程。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges and engineered by Kwaisi Lee.

本集的事实核查由西耶拉·华雷斯完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

本集由朱莉娅·里奇ie编辑。

This episode was edited by Julia Ritchie.

凯特·坎农是节目的编辑。

Kate Cannon is the show's editor.

《指标》是NPR的制作节目。

The indicator is a production of NPR.