毕业生更该抵制谁？人工智能还是远程工作？

NPR。

NPR.

这里是《星球金钱》的《指标》节目，荣获2026年安比奖最佳商业播客。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money, also known as the twenty twenty six Ambies award winning best business podcast.

我是阿德里安·马。

I'm Adrian Ma.

我是达里安·伍兹。

I'm Darian Woods.

我是韦隆·王，今天是就业 Fridays。

And I'm Waylon Wong, and it is jobs Friday.

每个月的这一天，我们都会查看最新的政府就业报告，了解美国劳动者的情况。

It's the day each month where we look at the latest government jobs report, and we check-in with how American workers are doing.

没错。

That is right.

根据劳工统计局的最新数据，五月的失业率保持在4.3%，和过去几个月一样。

And according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in May remained at 4.3%, so same as the past couple of months.

雇主新增了17.2万个职位。

And employers added 172,000 jobs.

总体来看，这个数字相当不错。

That's a pretty good number overall.

而且你知道，这已经是

And, you know, this is

连续第三个月

the third month in a

雇主都增加了相当可观的就业岗位。

row that employers have added a decent number of jobs.

确实如此，但我们总喜欢深入看看数据背后的情况，把画面补得更完整些。

That's true, but we always like to dig beneath the headline numbers and add some detail to the picture.

电脑，放大一下。

Computer, enhance.

广告结束后，我们会分析当前就业增长的驱动力是什么。

So after the break, we'll explain what is driving job growth right now,

人工智能是否真的该为年轻人难以找到第一份工作负责。

whether AI is really to blame for young people struggling to land their first job.

非裔美国人的失业率可能预示着未来的趋势。

And how the unemployment rate for black workers could be a signal of what's to come.

现在是六月，距离中期选举还有关键的一周。

It's June and another big week in the run up to the midterms.

六个州举行初选，包括加州——那里已启用新的国会选区划分，州长竞选也异常激烈，局面尚未明朗。

Primaries in half a dozen states, including California, where new congressional maps are in place, and a chaotic race for governor is wide open.

我们还在关注油价和伊朗局势。

We're also following gas prices and Iran.

到目前为止，关于和平协议的讨论都还只是空谈。

So far, talk of a peace deal is just talk.

我们会持续跟进最新进展。

We'll keep you posted.

每天早上请在NPR应用或您常用的播客平台收听我们的节目。

Listen every morning, up first on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

我们来看看这个月的就业报告。

We're looking at this month's jobs report.

AJ 和 Ma，你们来开头吧。

Why don't you kick us off, AJ and Ma?

所以呢，

So like

我们之前说过，五月的就业情况很不错。

we said, May was a strong month for jobs.

新增了十七万两千个岗位。

172,000 jobs added.

而且这份最新报告还更新了三月和四月的估算数据。

And in fact, this latest report includes some revised estimates for the months of March and April.

因为劳工统计局拿到了更多数据，做了上调。

They were revised upwards as the BLS got more data.

仅这两个月，雇主实际新增的岗位就比之前公布的多了九万三千个，而那之前的数据本来就已经很强了。

And between those two months, that means employers added 93,000 more jobs than was previously reported, and that's on top of what were already strong hiring numbers.

好的。

Alright.

我们已经连续三个月就业增长强劲了。

So we've got three months in a row of strong hiring.

也许劳动力市场正开始摆脱过去一年里那种招聘少、裁员也少的停滞状态。

So maybe, perhaps, the labor market is starting to shake off this low hire, low fire sluggishness we've been seeing for a lot of the past year.

有可能。

That could be.

这份报告里还有几个值得注意的点。

And a couple more interesting notes from this report.

上个月新增的岗位主要集中在休闲娱乐、地方政府和医疗保健行业。

It says most of the jobs added last month were in the leisure and hospitality sector, local government, and health care.

平均时薪是37.53美元。

And the average hourly wage was $37.53 an hour.

比一年前高了3.4%，但还没跟上通胀步伐，最近通胀率是3.8%。

That is 3.4% higher than a year ago, but not quite enough to keep up with inflation, which recently clocked in at 3.8%.

所以斯克里普斯的报告让我觉得，美联储近期不太可能决定降息。

So the Scripps report has made me think that it's gonna be pretty unlikely that the Federal Reserve is going to decide to cut interest rates in the near future.

这确实是个不错的观点。

I mean, is a good point.

对吧？

Right?

众所周知，特朗普总统一直施压美联储降息，想刺激经济。

Because as we know, president Trump has been jawboning the Fed to lower interest rates to try and juice the economy.

但就业市场正在加速回暖。

But the job market is gaining steam.

而汽油、食品和其他商品价格上涨，通胀问题才是当前最让人担忧的。

And inflation, rising prices for gas, groceries, and other things, that's really the growing concern right now.

如果美联储现在降息，只会进一步推高通胀。

And the Fed cutting interest rates would just add to inflation.

所以在这种情况下，降息的理由更站不住脚了，有些经济学家甚至认为该考虑加息了。

So in this environment, the case for an interest rate cut makes even less sense, and some economists might even see cause for a rate hike.

对于一位新任美联储主席来说，这真是个充满挑战的开局。

Interesting environment for a new Fed chair to be stepping in.

谢谢你的分享，阿德里安。

Thank you for that, Adrian.

接下来我们来看看一些具体群体的情况。

And now we're gonna dive into some specific groups.

杰里和伍兹。

Jerry and Woods.

我特别关注了年轻劳动者的失业率。

I was particularly interested in the unemployment rate for younger workers.

没错。

Right.

很多年轻人刚从职业学校或大学毕业，这正是他们现在最关心的问题。

A lot of young people have just graduated from trade school or college, so this is gonna be what they're obsessed with right now.

还有他们父母可能也在担心的事？

And what their parents are probably gonna be thinking about?

是的。

Yes.

这些家长会松一口气，因为就业报告显示，20至24岁美国人的失业率在五月略微下降到了7.2%。

So those parents will be relieved because the jobs report showed that the unemployment rate of Americans aged twenty to twenty four decreased a little to 7.2% in May.

从历史角度看，这个数字还算正常，但它没算上那些觉得就业市场太差、干脆回学校深造的人。

Now historically, that's kind of average, but it doesn't include all the people who think that the jobs market is so bad that they're just gonna go back to school.

这几年，年轻人对就业市场一直挺失望的。

Younger people have been feeling frustrated about the jobs market for a few years now.

从网上疯传的毕业演讲视频来看，你可能会以为这一切都是因为AI成了头号罪魁祸首。

I mean, judging by the sort of viral clips of commencement speeches, you would think that this is all because of AI being the big villain here.

对。

Yeah.

这是前谷歌CEO埃里克·施密特在亚利桑那大学的讲话。

Here's former Google CEO Eric Schmidt speaking at the University of Arizona.

《时代》周刊选出了2025年的年度人物，这一次，得主是人工智能的缔造者们。

Time Magazine selected its person of the year for 2025, and it would this time, it was the architects of artificial intelligence.

有意思。

Interesting.

所以今天，我们

So today, we

他们根本就不同意？

They're stand just they're really not having it?

他们就是不同意。

They are not.

过去一年里，有一些零星的研究支持了这些批评声音。

And there has been a smattering of research over the last year supporting those boos.

研究指出，人工智能导致了初级岗位招聘率偏低。

It says AI is to blame for low hiring rates for junior workers.

埃里克·施密特本该换个方向，直接念这些研究结果的。

Eric Schmidt should have pivoted and started just reading out those studies.

对。

Yeah.

他本可以重新赢得观众的支持。

He he could have gotten the crowd back on his side.

他需要的是两项新研究，这些研究对AI理论提出了质疑。

Well, what he needed were two new studies which are casting doubt on the AI theory.

它们把 junior 岗位减少的原因归咎于另一个重要因素——远程办公。

They have accused another big force for the death of junior hires, remote work.

哦，原来如此。

Oh, okay.

这挺有意思的。

That's interesting.

所以这比AI热潮出现得还要早。

So this predates the whole AI boom.

确实如此。

It does.

但它的兴起时间其实和人们逐渐意识到远程办公给企业运营带来摩擦的时间点非常接近。

But it's actually very similarly timed as people kind of figured out that remote work did have some friction in the gears of running a business.

第一篇论文由两位英国经济学家撰写，分析了2017年到2035年间美国及其他国家数亿次招聘和职位发布数据。

So the first paper from two economists in The UK looked at hundreds of millions of hires and jobs postings all across The US and other countries from 2017 to 2035.

他们几乎没有发现人工智能导致大量初级岗位消失的证据，即使在科技行业也是如此。

Now they couldn't find much evidence that AI was killing that many junior jobs, even in tech.

但他们发现，那些更倾向于远程办公的岗位，更少雇佣经验不足的新人。

But what they did find was that jobs that were more likely to have remote workers were less likely to hire people with limited experience.

第二篇论文来自三位美国经济学家。

And the second paper was from three economists in The US.

他们本周发布的研究结论指出，近期年轻大学毕业生失业率的上升中，近三分之二归因于远程办公。

In findings released this week, they conclude that nearly two thirds of the recent rise in unemployment among young college graduates is because of remote work.

所以雇主本质上是在对Z世代说：不用来了。

So employers are basically telling Gen z, like, no thanks.

别费心投简历了。

Don't worry about applying.

Z世代请勿申请。

Gen z need not apply.

他们的想法是，在远程办公的环境下，新人培训难度大得多，所以招聘经理更倾向于招那些已经熟悉职场基本规范的人。

The idea is that onboarding is much harder in a remote work world, and so hiring managers are leaning towards getting people that already know the workplace basics.

他们懂得岗位所需的技能，知道怎么跟人沟通，也更主动积极。

They know the on the job skills and how to communicate with others, being proactive.

这些本事，面对面工作时本来就更容易培养。

All that stuff that face to face makes easier.

我明白这种说法有道理。

I do see that rationale.

但我认为，如果现在花时间教Z世代这些工作方法，将来可能会有回报，只是雇主们还没想到这一点。

I also think that if you take the time now to train Gen Zers about how to do this kind of work, you know, there could be a payoff later that maybe employers aren't thinking of.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

而且面对面培训确实更容易见效。

And training seems to be easier face to face.

那能不能用人工智能来培训呢？

Could you use AI to train?

也许人工智能才是解决办法。

Maybe AI is the savior.

好的。

Okay.

我们五年后再回过头来看这个问题。

Let's revisit this in five years.

谢谢达里安，你对年轻员工的分析很有启发。

Thank you, Darien, for that bit of insight into younger workers.

韦隆，接下来你来说吧。

Waylon, why don't you go next?

好的。

Okay.

我今天想谈另一个值得关注的问题，它可能预示着整个劳动力市场的隐患，那就是黑人劳动者。

I am here to talk about another area of concern that could potentially signal trouble for the broader labor market, and that is black workers.

这个群体的失业率历来高于整体水平，五月的情况就明显如此。

This is a group where their unemployment rate has historically been higher than the main number, and this was definitely the case in May.

黑人劳工的失业率为6.6%，而全体劳工的失业率是4.3%。

The jobless rate for black workers was 6.6% compared with 4.3% for all workers.

不过，这个6.6%的数字已经比之前好了。

That said, the 6.6% number is an improvement.

相比四月有所下降，是一年来的最低水平。

It's down from April, and it's the lowest rate in a year.

希望这个趋势能继续下去。

So it hopefully keeps moving in that direction.

对，没错。

Yeah.

尤其是黑人女性，去年联邦政府大规模裁员和买断时，她们受到的影响特别大。

And black women in particular really felt the effects of the mass layoffs and buyouts we saw with federal workforce last year.

我看过经济政策研究所的一份分析报告。

I read an analysis from the Economic Policy Institute.

这是一个为低收入和中等收入家庭发声的智库。

That's a think tank that advocates for low and middle income working families.

环保署表示，2025年黑人女性遭受的失业损失最为严重。

And the EPA says that black women suffered the greatest job losses in 2025.

它的分析还显示，整体净减少完全来自于公共部门的裁员。

Its analysis also shows that the overall net loss was driven entirely by cuts in public sector jobs.

我很好奇，是不是有些联邦员工找到了新工作，这才让黑人失业率下降了。

I wonder whether some of these federal workers finding new jobs might be why the black unemployment rate went down.

是的。

Yeah.

这个数据挺让人欣慰的。

It's encouraging data.

但你知道，如果黑人失业率再次上升，那可能就不是好兆头了。

But, you know, if the black unemployment rate were to go back up, that could be a bad signal.

最近我还看到一些其他研究，挺引人注意的。

There was some other research that caught my eye recently.

这是克利夫兰联储的经济学家凯文·林斯做的研究。

It comes from Kevin Rins, an economist at the Cleveland Fed.

他发现，当黑人劳工的失业率上升时，往往会导致整体失业率随之上升。

And he determined that when the unemployment rate for black workers goes up, it tends to be followed by higher overall unemployment.

没错。

Right.

这就是他们所说的先行指标。

So that's what they call a leading indicator.

是的。

Yeah.

根据他的分析，如果黑人失业率上升一个百分点，四到七个月后，整体失业率大概会上升0.2个百分点。

According to his analysis, if the black unemployment rate goes up one percentage point, you can expect the overall unemployment rate to go up about 0.2 percentage points in four to seven months.

这太有意思了。

That's super interesting.

我们平时总听到各种经济衰退的预警信号。

We hear about recession indicators all the time.

但这个指标，回归到最基础的数据，黑人失业率确实有扎实的实证支持。

And this one, going back to basics, the unemployment rate for black workers seems like it has some empirical backing to it.

没错。

Absolutely.

对。

Yeah.

这其实就是回归根本。

It's back to basics.

本集节目由科里·布里奇斯制作，录音由罗伯特·罗德里格斯负责。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering by Robert Rodriguez.

内容核实由西耶拉·华雷斯和维托·埃马努埃尔完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and Vito Emanuel.

凯特·金卡登担任节目编辑，《指标》节目由NPR出品。

Kate Kinkadden edits the show and The Indicator is a production of NPR.

嗨。

Hey.

我是NPR音乐频道的罗宾·希尔顿，有个重要消息要告诉所有喜欢《微型办公桌》的听众。

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