为什么二手车的价格像新车一样？

NPR。

NPR.

这里是《金钱星球》的《指标》节目。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是瑞奇·穆尔维。

I'm Ricky Mulvey.

今天和我一起的是我们的制作人，安赫尔·卡雷拉斯。

Joining me today is our producer, Angel Carreras.

穆尔维，你好。

Mulvey, hello.

你怎么样？

How are you?

我很好。

Doing well.

你呢？

How are you?

我有点喘不过气来。

I'm a little winded.

我刚从家走到办公室。

I just I just walked here to the office from my home.

恭喜你。

Congratulations.

而且，Ricky，我想说的是我需要一辆车，但现在买一辆实惠的车真的很难。

And, Ricky, what I'm saying is I need a car, but buying an affordable car is really difficult these days.

我的意思是，美国新车的平均售价超过——你准备好了吗——五万美元。

I mean, the average new car sells for over, get this, are you ready, $50,000 in The United States.

但今天，我们想聊聊二手车市场。

But today, we wanna talk about the used car market.

我们注意到一些经济上的怪现象，比如一辆行驶里程超过20万英里的二手丰田皮卡卖到2万美元，或者一辆几十年的本田轿车以原价出售。

We've noticed some economic weirdness, like a used Toyota truck with over 200,000 miles on it going for $20 or a decades old Honda sedan selling for its original retail price.

这到底是怎么回事？

Like, what is going on?

二手车怎么会变得这么贵？

How did used cars get to be so expensive?

为什么折旧不折旧了？

Why isn't depreciation depreciating?

汽车市场研究员伊万·朱雷看到了这种疯狂现象。

Car market researcher Ivan Jurey sees the madness.

你知道这不对劲。

You know this isn't normal.

这太不正常了。

This is extremely abnormal.

过去几年，新车的价格上涨速度接近整体通胀率，但表面之下还有别的情况。

Over the past few years, the cost of a new car has risen at a rate that's close to headline inflation numbers, but something is happening under the surface.

瑞奇，我刚才在弹我的尤克里里。

Ricky, I was playing my doodle.

那是一种沉重的调子，因为我们所熟悉的平价二手车市场正在消亡。

It was a solemn tone because the affordable used car market as we know it is dying.

今天的节目里，我们会告诉你为什么便宜的二手车这么难找，原因有三个。

Today on the show, we'll tell you the three reasons why affordable used cars are so difficult to find.

另外，还有一个地方，如果你想做个理性的经济人，买车能捡到便宜。

Plus, one area where car buyers can find discounts if you wanna be a rational economic actor.

这节目撑不了多久。

This show won't last long.

我们有轿车。

We've got sedans.

我们有SUV。

We've got SUVs.

我们有电动车。

We've got electric vehicles.

还有超划算的优惠，优惠，优惠，热得不行。

And we've got deals, deals, deals so hot.

我都不敢相信我们居然能提这些。

I can't believe we're allowed to mention them.

那是在休息之后。

That's after the break.

这条消息来自美国海外选民中心基金会。

This message comes from the Center for US Voters Abroad Foundation.

美国公民在世界各地生活、旅行和服务。

US citizens live, travel, and serve all over the world.

但无论他们在哪里，他们都可以通过投票与家乡保持联系。

But wherever they are, they can stay connected to home through voting.

所有海外美国公民都可以申请缺席选票，参加2026年的选举，申请起来很简单。

All US citizens abroad may request an absentee ballot to vote in the twenty twenty six election, and requesting yours is easy.

无论你离得多远，都要保持联系。

Keep your connections strong no matter how far away you are.

访问registerabroad.com开始吧。

Visit registerabroad.com to get started.

这条消息来自Home Serve，水管爆裂、热水器坏了、空调罢工。

This message comes from Home Serve, a burst pipe, a dead water heater, the AC calling it quits.

你会打给谁？

Who do you call?

HomeServe 是处理意外房屋维修的简便方式，其计划覆盖了基本房屋保险通常不包含的项目。

HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't.

不用手忙脚乱地找承包商，你只需打一个电话就能启动维修流程。

Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started.

现在就加入数百万信任 HomeServe 的客户行列吧。

Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now.

访问 homeserve.com/podcast，第一年可享受五折优惠。

Go to homeserve.com/podcast for 50% less your first year.

节省金额是与续订价格相比的。

Savings compared to renewal price.

来自佛罗里达的博伊德。

Boyd in Florida.

对许多美国人来说，交通是他们仅次于住房的第二大开销。

For many Americans, transportation is their second largest expense right after housing.

而且买车压力很大，就像一场消耗战，你得在车行里待上好几个小时，试驾、讨价还价，还要等销售员花半小时打印几张纸。

And buying a car is stressful, a war of attrition where you end up in a dealership for hours, test driving, negotiating, waiting a half hour for a salesperson to print out a few pieces of paper.

哇。

Woah.

哇。

Woah.

哇。

Woah.

瑞奇。

Ricky.

瑞奇，冷静点，兄弟。

Ricky, take a chill pill, man.

这听起来有点像是个人经历啊。

This this all sounds kinda personal.

是有点个人经历。

It's a little personal.

汽车是高价商品，不常买。

Cars, they're a high dollar item, one you don't buy that often.

所以通货膨胀的影响感觉不太一样。

So inflation hits a little different.

你只会注意到总价在几年间的上涨。

You only notice the total price increase spread across several years.

你可能知道，疫情期间新车价格飙升，之后一直居高不下。

And you probably know that new car prices jumped during the pandemic and stayed elevated.

但好消息是，

But here's the good news.

这个涨价趋势正在趋于平缓。

That price increase, it's smoothing out.

从2019年到现在，新车价格年均上涨4.3%。

From 2019 to now, the price of a new car has risen at an annual rate of 4.3%.

同期，整个CPI指数年均涨幅略低于4%。

The whole CPI index went up annually a little less than 4% in the same time period.

每年的差异其实不算太离谱。

The yearly difference isn't totally out of line.

但这只是市场的一部分。

But this is just one part of the market.

二手车市场才是坏消息。

The used car market is the bad news.

杰里米·罗伯是考克斯汽车公司的首席经济学家。

Jeremy Robb is the chief economist at Cox Automotive.

这是一家大型汽车服务和技术提供商，旗下拥有凯利蓝皮书和汽车交易网站。

It's a big automotive services and tech provider, and it owns Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader.

我们问他为什么二手车这么贵，他首先肯定了我们的感受。

We asked him why used cars are so expensive, and first, he validated our feelings.

很多人确实对此感到疑惑和沮丧，你知道，有些人甚至对此感到愤怒。

A lot of people really wonder that and get frustrated, you know, and some people angry sometimes with it.

你看，从2019年到现在，二手车价格每年上涨约5.5%，超过了平均通胀率和新车价格的涨幅。

See, used car prices from that same time period, 2019 to now, they've gone up about five and a half percent annually, accelerating past that average inflation number and new car price growth.

而如今，一辆只有三年车龄的二手车平均售价超过三万两千美元。

And today, the average used car that's just three years old goes for more than $32,000.

那这是怎么回事呢？

So what's happening?

二手车价格这么高的第一个原因，是一种叫做“价格瀑布”的现象。

The first reason used cars are so expensive is something called the price waterfall.

二手车价格会跟着新车价格走。

Used car prices follow new car prices.

这并不是什么新鲜事。

This isn't a new phenomenon.

这意味着，当新车价格下调或上调时，同品牌同型号的二手车价格也会跟着变动。

It means that when the new car price adjusts down or adjusts up, the used car price of that same make model will move along with that.

而这个价格瀑布还在往上走的一个原因，就是针对新车及其制造材料的关税。

And one reason this price waterfall is still moving upwards is tariffs on new cars and the materials that make them.

所以，即使很多二手车是在关税生效之前生产的，它们的价格仍然会受到影响。

So even though many used cars were made before tariffs went into effect, their prices are still affected by them.

二手车这么贵的第二个原因是疫情。

The second reason that used cars are so expensive is the pandemic.

供应短缺的问题依然存在。

Still, there's a supply shortage.

2020年汽车产量下降，意味着几年后，比如2026年，买二手车的人选择会更少。

Lower car production from 2020 means that used car shoppers have fewer choices years later, like in 2026.

我觉得这就像看着蛇吞老鼠一样。

I call it, like, watching the snake eat the eat the mouse or whatever.

你会随着时间慢慢看到这个过程。

You kind of see it through time.

这是一个瓶颈，供应量减少了。

It's a a choke point, right, where there's lower supply.

供应量减少，价格通常就会上涨。

If there's lower supply, there's generally higher prices.

所以汽车市场的蛇还在慢慢消化二手车这只老鼠，而这个过程仍然让胃很难受。

So the car market snake is slowly digesting the used car mouse, and that is still taking a toll on the stomach.

现在我们来说第三个原因，为什么二手车这么贵，那就是商业决策。

And now we have our third reason why used cars are so expensive, a business decision.

很多汽车制造商干脆不生产经济实惠的新车了，就是那些能带你到处跑的轿车。

Many automakers just stop making affordable new cars, the sedans that just got you around town.

伊万·德鲁里是埃德蒙兹公司的洞察总监。

Ivan Drury is the director of insights at Edmunds.

那是一个汽车购物和研究网站。

It's a car shopping and research website.

但他们说，轿车没人要了。

But something in which they said, well, sedans, nobody wants them.

大型SUV，我们多造点吧。

Big SUVs, let's make more of those.

大型SUV要多少钱？

What do big SUVs cost?

六万、七万、八万、十万美金。

$60.70, $80,100 grand.

入门级轿车，两万、三万美金，完全从市场上消失了。

Entry level s sedans, twenty, thirty k, completely removed from the market.

伊万说的是美国汽车制造商。

Ivan is talking about American carmakers.

比如福特，就直接停产了像福特嘉年华这样的普通轿车。

Ford, for example, just straight up stopped making regular sedans like the Ford Fiesta.

那也就是几年前的事。

That was just a few years ago.

日本和韩国车还有一些，德国车就很少了。

The Japanese and the Koreans, very few German offerings.

美国车几乎全没了。

The Americans virtually got rid of everything.

所以，整个车型类别被砍掉，最后就只剩下那么几款车了。

So you remove a entire vehicle category type, and therefore, you consolidate this to a few offerings.

伊万说的是本田思域、现代伊兰特这类车。

Ivan is talking about Honda Civics, Hyundai Elantras, those kinds of cars.

那个细分市场里没什么不好的。

There's nothing bad in that segment.

但同时也让人们很难说，你看。

But at the same time, it makes it very difficult for people to say, look.

我就想要个从A到B的代步工具。

I want just, like, a to b transportation.

我不需要什么花哨的东西。

I do not need something fancy.

这种整合意味着你得排队等这些车。

And this consolidation means you're fighting to get on a wait list for some of these cars.

比如，据我所知，在我住的丹佛，新的本田思域混动版供应量非常少。

Like, from what I've seen, there's a super low supply of new Honda Civic hybrids in Denver where I live.

那些大型本田SUV倒是停在车场上没人买。

The big old Honda SUVs are sitting on a lot.

在这些表面数字和总体情况之下，二手车市场的一部分基本上已经报废了。

And beneath these headline numbers and general conditions, an entire part of the used car market has basically been totaled.

便宜的二手车，花一万到一万五美元能买到一辆像样的车，这个市场伊万调查过。

The affordable used cars, the ability to buy a decent ride for 10 to $15, this is a sector that Ivan looked into.

2019年的时候，这个价位的车平均车龄大概五年。

Back in 2019, the average vehicle in that price range was about five years old.

现在，一万到一万五美元只能买到车龄快九年的车，而且里程数差不多十万英里。

Today, 10 to $15 gets you a car that's closer to nine years old, and it has about a 100,000 miles on it.

这种现象会带来个人财务上的问题。

And this phenomenon creates a personal finance problem.

想控制预算，反而可能花更多钱。

Trying to stay within a budget can create even more costs.

十万英里的车通常比新车更需要保养。

Cars with a 100,000 miles on them usually need a little more love than the new ones.

如果你不是修车行家，可能就得花钱请人换水泵、换正时皮带，这些都是高里程车上容易坏又贵又烦人的部件。

And if you're not a gearhead, you may need to pay someone else to replace water pumps and timing belts, the expensive, annoying things that break on high mileage cars.

瑞奇，我的手可是很嫩的。

Ricky, I have very soft hands.

你能在车里找到那些东西吗？

Could you locate those things in a car?

我觉得我连正时皮带都找不到。

I don't think I could find a timing belt.

所以我才做播客这行。

This is why I work in podcasting.

好了，我们已经聊了为什么二手车的标价更贵，但还有一个大成本要考虑，那就是利率。

Anyway, so we've talked about the reasons why a used car's sticker price is more expensive, but there's another big cost to factor in, interest rates.

2019年，信用良好但不是特别好的借款人，能以4.5%的利率拿到车贷。

In 2019, a borrower with good, not great credit could get a car loan with a four and a half percent interest rate.

现在，同样的借款人申请同样的贷款，利率接近9%。

Today, that same loan for the same borrower is closer to 9%.

差不多翻了一倍。

That's about double.

这很重要，因为记录通胀数据的人并没有追踪每月的利息支出，只记录了汽车的价格。

This is important because the record keepers for inflation data aren't keeping track of the monthly interest payments, just the cost of the car.

现在买车真的得算笔账，因为贷款太贵了，新车和二手车的选择，如果你能拿到新车低利率的话，可能真的就不用考虑二手车了。

It's one these things where you have to do the math nowadays because borrowing is so expensive that that new versus used proposition, if you can get a a nice low APR on a new car, really could wipe out the proposition of even looking at a used car.

伊万这么说是因为二手车的贷款利率通常比新车高。

Ivan is saying this because used car loans generally have higher interest rates than new cars.

银行认为二手车的贷款风险更大。

Banks see used car loans as riskier.

但汽车市场不是铁板一块，有一个领域伊万说二手车买家能找到一些好交易，好交易，好交易。

But a car market is not a monolith, and there's one sector where Ivan says used car buyers can find some deals, deals, deals.

你看看那些电动车的转售价值，简直惨不忍睹。

You look at those resale values and on EVs, it is just it's kind of atrocious.

伊万说这源于人们对电动车的一些误解，比如电动车电池能用多久，电动车的可靠性。

Ivan says that this comes from some misconceptions about electric vehicles, like how long EV batteries last, EV reliability.

他认为这种误解可能会让电动车有更好的交易机会，而且他对这个市场非常看好。

He thinks that this misunderstanding can lead to some better deals for electric vehicles, and he's bullish on this market.

技术是不是在进步？

Is the technology getting better?

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

你最好相信这一点。

You better believe it.

这就是技术增长的J型曲线，也让人觉得，如果今天买了这个，明天会不会就过时了？

It's that j curve of growth in technology that also makes it seem, if I buy this today, is it outdated tomorrow?

对于某些车来说，是的，从技术上讲，你的车明天可能就过时了。

And for some vehicles, yes, technically, yours can be outdated tomorrow.

它还能用吗？

Is it still gonna function?

百分之百能用。

100%.

所以二手车标价这么贵有几个原因。

So the sticker price of used cars are so expensive for a few reasons.

首先，新车更贵。

First, new cars are more expensive.

这就是价格瀑布效应。

That's the price waterfall.

第二，疫情导致的供应链问题还在起作用。

Second, the pandemic supply chain is still playing a role.

第三，很多汽车制造商已经不再生产经济型轿车了。

And third, many carmakers just stopped making affordable sedans.

而且这个标价并不能反映全部情况。

And this sticker price doesn't tell the whole story.

很多购车者还要面对保险、油费或电费，以及贷款的成本。

Many car buyers are still dealing with insurance, gas or electricity, and the cost of taking out a loan.

但是，安吉尔，我听说你正在考虑买二手车，或者一般意义上的车。

But, Angel, I heard you're in the market for a used car, for a car in general.

我找到了一辆电动车，比厂商建议零售价便宜3万美元。

I found an electric vehicle that's $30,000 off MSRP.

只是有个小条件。

There's just a small catch.

听起来像……

That sounds like...

我的意思是，鉴于这整件事，根本没有什么划算的交易。

I mean, given this entire episode, there's no, like, a deal.

是什么

What is

是一辆青柠绿色的Cybertruck，侧面喷着“Cyberbeast”的字样。

It's a lime green Cybertruck that says Cyberbeast spray painted on the side.

价格是88000美元。

It's $88,000.

不过，如果你想要的话，我敢打赌你能谈到更好的价格。

I bet you can get a little bit better deal if you want it, though.

我不确定青柠绿适不适合我，而且我也不确定我是不是个“Cyberbeast”。

I don't know if lime green's my color, and furthermore, I don't know if I'm a Cyberbeast.

好的。

Okay.

这倒也是。

That's fair enough.

不过，这辆车可是史上最短的汽车故事了。

Still, this car is the shortest car story ever told.

出售。

For sale.

青柠色赛博卡车，轻微使用痕迹。

Lime green cyber truck, gently used.

本期节目由科里·布里奇斯制作，西诺·洛夫雷多负责工程。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering from Sino Lofredo.

事实核查由西拉·华雷斯完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

凯特·坎农负责编辑，本节目由NPR出品。

Kate Cannon edits the show, and The Indicator is production of NPR.

本消息来自HomeServe，水管爆裂、热水器坏了、空调罢工。

This message comes from HomeServe, a burst pipe, a dead water heater, the AC calling it quits.

你会给谁打电话？

Who do you call?

HomeServe 是处理意外家庭维修的简便方法，其计划涵盖基本房主保险通常不覆盖的项目。

HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs with plans covering stuff basic homeowners insurance usually won't.

不用急着找承包商，你只需打一个电话就能开始维修流程。

Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started.

现在就加入数百万信任 HomeServe 的客户吧。

Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now.

访问 homeserve.com/podcast，第一年可享受五折优惠。

Go to homeserve.com/podcast for 50% less your first year.

与续订价格相比的节省在佛罗里达州无效。

Savings compared to renewal price void in Florida.

我是 Ira Glass。

This is Ira Glass.

在《美国生活》节目中，我们讲述关于变化发生时的故事。

On This American Life, we tell stories about when things change.

比如这个叫大卫的家伙，他的一生突然来了个急转弯，变得非常意外，也非常糟糕。

Like for this guy, David, whose entire life took a sharp, unexpected, and very unpleasant turn.

而且我确实花了一段时间才意识到，这基本上就是因为那只猴子按了按钮。

And it did take me a while to realize that it's basically because the monkey pressed the button.

没错。

That's right.

就是因为猴子按了按钮。

Because the monkey pressed the button.

每周都有意想不到的故事，无论你在哪里收听播客。

Surprising stories every week wherever you get your podcasts.