Why Pokémon cards are growing faster than your retirement account

NPR。

NPR.

这是《星球金钱》的指标。

This is the indicator from Planet Money.

我是达里安·伍兹。

I'm Darian Woods.

还有里基·穆尔维。

And Ricky Mulvey.

是的。

Yep.

我来谈谈宝可梦卡片。

I'm here to talk about Pokemon cards.

这是目前最热门的投机热潮之一。

It's one of the hottest speculative booms right now.

Card Ladder追踪卡片的销售数据，数据显示，数千张稀有宝可梦卡片的指数上涨了约170%。

Card Ladder tracks the sales data of cards, and it says that an index of thousands of rare Pokemon cards is up about 170%.

这仅仅是过去一年内的涨幅。

That's over the last year alone.

宝可梦卡片已经成为一种资产类别。

Pokemon cards have become sort of an asset class.

换句话说，一种你可以投资的东西，比如股票或贵金属。

In other words, something you can invest in, like a stock or a precious metal.

粉丝们一直热爱这些角色并收集卡片，有时愿意花大价钱。

Fans have always loved the characters and collected the cards, sometimes paying big bucks.

但现在，投机者购买和出售并不是因为他们喜欢这些角色。

But now, speculators aren't buying and selling because they love the characters.

他们追求的是价格的快速上涨和媒体炒作。

They're chasing rapid price appreciation and media hype.

许多稀有宝可梦卡片的价值至少到目前为止依然坚挺。

And the values of many rare Pokemon cards have held up, at least for now.

与此同时，黄金和更广泛的股票市场在过去几个月里有所下跌。

At the same time, gold and the broader stock market have declined over the past couple months.

然而，这个市场的某些部分正像泡沫一样开始膨胀并破裂。

Still, parts of this market are walking and cracking like a bubble.

所以

So

我们前往丹佛卡牌展，会见了来访者和商家——那些在热潮中出售卡牌的人。

we went to the Denver card show to meet the visitors and vendors, those selling into the boom.

我现在想以4.75美元左右的价格出手。

I'm trying to get around $4.75 for it right now.

还有那些在购买的人。

And those buying.

我的意思是，它以后会保值的。

I mean, it's gonna hold its value later on.

并且问问你或你的父母为什么把那些旧的宝可梦卡片扔掉了。

And ask why you or your parents threw out those old Pokemon cards.

我以前有很多。

I used to have a bunch.

我不知道它们现在在哪里。

I don't know where they are now.

我也不知道。

Neither do I.

而且，你知道吗，达里昂，这些卡片本可以值几千美元。

And, you know, Darion, they could have been worth thousands of dollars.

它们本可能成为里基·穆利维靠他的宝可梦收藏过上富裕生活的另一种未来。

They could have been the alternative future of Ricky Mulvey living large from his Pokemon collection.

广告后，我们会告诉你关于这个市场的三件事。

We'll give you three things to know about this market right after the break.

当我们的政党成为我们看待自身其他所有身份的滤镜时，会发生什么？

What happens when our political party becomes the prism through which we see every other aspect of our identities?

我认为，我们正在经历的是，两大政党在是否要继续推进这种社会进步，还是想回到过去的问题上持对立立场。

What we're living through, I think, is really the two parties taking opposite sides on whether we wanna keep making this type of social progress or whether we wanna go back in time.

请在NPR应用程序或您收听播客的任何平台收听NPR的Code Switch播客。

Listen to NPR's Code Switch Podcasts in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

关于宝可梦卡牌热潮，首先要明白的是，完美的卡片比几乎完美的卡片价值高得多。

The first thing to understand about the Pokemon card boom is that perfection is worth significantly more than almost perfect.

品质很重要。

Quality matters.

收藏家会把他们的卡片送到专业的体育品鉴机构PSA进行评级，评级范围从1到10分，10分为完美无瑕。

Collectors will send their cards to professional sports authenticator or PSA and have them graded on a scale of one to 10 with 10 being a flawless grade.

九分和十分之间的品质差异可能微乎其微。

And the quality difference between a nine and a 10 can be miniscule.

可能只是卡片背面角落的一个小白点。

It may just be like a a white dot on the corner of the back of the card.

这是Card Ladder联合创始人约书亚·约翰逊。

That's Joshua Johnson, the cofounder of Card Ladder.

他追踪收藏品的价格。

He tracks the prices of collectibles.

他们就是想买十分的卡片，你知道的，九分显然有瑕疵。

They just wanna, like, buy the tens, you know, like, a nine is obviously has a flaw.

我根本不想操心这些。

I don't wanna even have to think about that.

我就直接买十级的。

I'll just buy the 10.

假设你想买一张戴着灰色毛毡帽的皮卡丘。

Let's say you want to buy a Pikachu with a gray felt hat.

这是宝可梦与梵高博物馆合作推出的一张卡牌。

This is a card that Pokemon made in collaboration with the Van Gogh Museum.

它真的看起来像是梵高画的皮卡丘，而皮卡丘戴着灰色毛毡帽显得非常帅气。

It really looks like Van Gogh painted Pikachu, and Pikachu looks pretty spiffy in his gray felt hat.

是的。

Yeah.

在《星夜》的背景下，你会为这份特权支付高昂的价钱。

In a starry night, and you'll pay a lot for that privilege.

当它被评分为九级时，价格大约是800美元。

It's about $800 when it's graded at a nine.

但这张戴着灰色毛毡帽的皮卡丘，如果是完美10分，价格将近2500美元。

But a perfect 10 of this gray felt hat Pikachu will cost you close to $2,500.

我们在丹佛卡牌展上遇到了克里斯·冈萨雷斯。

We met Chris Gonzalez at the Denver card show.

他说自己是个收藏家，刚刚花了1750美元现金买了一张超甲龙兽。

He says he's a collector, and he just spent $1,750 cash for a Mega Charizard.

这张卡的PSA评级是完美的10分。

It was graded at a flawless PSA 10.

克里斯说他喜欢这张卡的插画。

Chris said he likes the art.

而且这张经过评级的卡，它的价值以后会保持稳定。

And this being graded card, I mean, it's gonna hold its value later on.

我的意思是，你见过很多YouTuber因为卖出百万美元的卡片而走红。

I mean, I've seen, like, you've seen a bunch of YouTubers going viral with selling their million dollar cards.

我的意思是，想搞到这种卡，但确实挺酷的。

I mean, trying to get that, but I mean, it's cool.

我喜欢这个。

I like it.

我宁愿现在买，因为有些卡片以后就买不起了。

And I'd rather buy now because some of these cards later on, they're not affordable later.

克里斯提到的是WWE超级巨星和YouTuber洛根·保罗，他最近以超过1600万美元的价格出售了一张稀有皮卡丘卡片。

Chris is referencing Logan Paul, the WWE superstar and YouTuber who recently sold a rare Pikachu card for over $16,000,000.

这是媒体的炒作。

This is the media hype.

克里斯说他会保留这张卡片一段时间并享受它，但他也意识到，如果把宝可梦卡片当作投资，持有它们是有风险的。

Chris says he's holding on to the card for a while and enjoying it, but he recognizes there is a risk in holding on to Pokemon cards if you think of it as an investment.

我喜欢这张卡片。

I enjoy the card.

我愿意花这么多钱。

I'm comfortable paying that much.

我的意思是，别为此倾家荡产。

I mean, don't go broke over it.

到目前为止，克里斯对他的卡片判断正确。

So far, Chris has been right about his card.

我们几周前见过他。

We met him a few weeks ago.

他的超甲龙现在在eBay上的售价比他购买时高出一千美元。

His Mega Charizard is now selling on eBay for a thousand dollars more than the price he paid.

达里安，这感觉像是价格快速上涨。

Darian, this feels like rapid price appreciation.

它涨得比我的退休账户还快。

It's growing faster than my retirement account.

我可以告诉你这一点。

I can tell you that.

关于这场热潮，第二点要知道的是，它并不基于任何实际用途。

And the second thing to know about this boom is that it's not tied to a functional purpose.

宝可梦卡片用于一种集换式卡牌游戏。

Pokemon cards are used for a trading card game.

Joshua在Card Ladder上表示，现在的情况并非如此。

Joshua with card ladder says that's not what's happening now.

大概只有5%的人购买卡盒是为了收集整套牌并玩游戏。

It's probably like 5% of the people that buy the boxes is for the purpose of, you know, building the set and playing the game.

我猜这个比例低得离谱。

I would guess it's some ridiculously low member.

收藏者们对角色和插画感到兴奋，对一些人来说，他们还相信这些卡片未来可能会升值。

Collectors are excited about the characters, the art, and for some of them, the belief that these cards might grow in value.

关于这个市场，第三点要知道的是复古卡与现代卡之间的区别。

The third thing to know about this market is the split between vintage and modern cards.

当宝可梦卡片三十年前刚推出时，大多数收藏者并不认为它们能保值多年。

When Pokemon cards first came out three decades ago, most collectors didn't view them as something that could hold value for years to come.

所以你妈妈才会把它们扔掉。

That's why your mom threw them out.

我不会怪她。

I'm not gonna blame her.

我不知道她有没有扔。

I don't know if she did.

可能是我扔的。

It might have been me.

也许不是你妈妈，达里昂，但有些妈妈确实会扔。

Maybe not your mom, Darion, but some moms.

所以现在这些复古卡牌的供应量更少了，尤其是高品相的。

So now these vintage cards have a more limited supply, especially at the higher grades.

许多收藏家小时候曾玩过宝可梦卡牌，或在操场上交易它们。

Many of the collectors played with Pokemon cards or traded them on playgrounds.

其他复古收藏品在更长的时间内保持了其价值。

And other vintage collectibles have maintained their value over longer periods of time.

从2009年起，那本首次出现蜘蛛侠的漫画年均回报率约为11%。

The comic book with Spider Man's first appearance has returned about 11% per year since 2009.

而那本漫画只被评了4分，意味着书上可能有一些划痕。

And that was only graded at a four, which means the book could have some scratches.

但现代卡牌已经被视为收藏品。

But the modern cards are already viewed as a collectible.

因此，这些卡牌在刚从包装中取出后，更多是被精心保管和评级，而不是立即在eBay上出售。

So more of these cards are being pampered, graded, than sold on eBay right after they come out of a pack.

约书亚担心，供应量增加和价格上涨的结合可能导致一些现代卡牌处于泡沫中。

Joshua worries a mix of increased supply and rising prices could mean that some modern cards are in a bubble.

这仅仅需要大量相同的人不断以这些价格重复购买同样的东西。

It just requires, like, a lot of the same people continuing to buy the same stuff over and over at these prices.

如果一旦出现任何信心丧失，它就会迅速崩盘，因为供应量实在太大了。

And if there's any sort of loss of confidence, like, it's gonna just come crashing down because there's just so much supply.

约书亚所描述的是一种被称为更大傻瓜理论的经济概念。

What Joshua is describing is an economic concept called the greater fool theory.

一些投机者购买宝可梦卡牌，不仅仅是因为他们喜欢其艺术或角色，甚至也不仅仅是因为他们认为卡牌的价值应该与价格相符，而是因为他们相信会有一个更大的傻瓜愿意出更高的价格买走。

Some speculators may be buying Pokemon cards, not just because they love the art or the character, or even that they think it should be valued at what the price is, but because they think a greater fool will come along and spend more than them.

但当这样的买家不再出现时，价格就会暴跌。

When that buyer doesn't come along though, the price crashes.

所以一些收藏家担心存在泡沫，但这种赌博仍然吸引着投机者。

So some collectors are worried about a bubble, but the gamble is still drawing speculators in.

打开宝可梦卡包的回报通常比购买刮刮乐更差，但有时你也能中大奖。

Opening packs of Pokemon cards generally has a worse payback than buying scratch off lottery tickets, but sometimes you hit a winner.

中大奖的机会正是新宝可梦卡包迅速售罄，并在二级市场上经常以高于零售价出售的原因。

The chance of hitting it big is why new boxes of Pokemon cards fly off shelves and often sell for more than their retail price on secondary markets.

这助长了投机热潮，使得像在卡展上遇到的佩顿·戴格尔这样预算有限的宝可梦粉丝更难收藏。

It's contributed to a speculative boom that has made collecting more difficult for Pokemon fans with a smaller budget, like Peyton Dagle back at the card show.

我通常只带20美元，试着换卡，一旦这20美元花完，我就只是到处逛逛。

I usually just bring $20 with me, and I try to trade cards or once I'm out of that $20, I'm usually just walking around kinda looking.

佩顿说，这场宝可梦热潮让他更难收集他最喜欢的宝可梦——喷火龙。

Peyton says this Pokemon boom has made it more difficult for him to collect Dragonite, his favorite Pokemon.

是的。

Yeah.

尤其是那些我想要的卡，价格涨到了我负担不起的程度。

Would say, especially making cards that I want, go much higher than I I can afford.

约书亚·约翰逊认为，这个繁荣的市场反映了年轻一代对经济体系不再为他们服务的怀疑，他们或许觉得收藏卡牌能带来希望。

Joshua Johnson believes this booming market reflects how the younger generation doesn't believe the economy is working for them and thinks that maybe this will.

你知道，老一辈人拥有所有的房地产。

You know, older generations have all the real estate.

他们掌握了这个机会。

They have that unlock.

你知道，股市看起来似乎被政治因素左右，所以年轻人总觉得，我只是希望能赚够钱租个公寓活下去。

You know, the stock market is kind of it seems like it's a bit manipulated based on, like, politics, and so the younger person kinda feels like, I'm just sort of, like, hoping I make enough money to survive in an apartment.

你知道吧？

You know?

但交易卡市场也同样可能被操纵。

But trading card markets can be manipulated too.

只要少数买家就能推高某些卡片的价格。

It just takes a few buyers to drive up the price of specific cards.

而交易卡不像股票那样是证券，因此对操纵行为的保护更少。

And a trading card is not a security like a stock, and so there's less protection from manipulation.

没有所谓的宝可梦证券交易委员会。

There's not a Pokemon Securities and Exchange Commission.

体育卡经常被操纵。

Sports cards are manipulated all the time.

尽管看到了一些泡沫迹象，约书亚仍然对宝可梦整体持乐观态度。

Joshua is still bullish on Pokemon as a whole, even though he sees pockets of bubbles.

他认为，人们会继续购买与强大IP相关的卡片，而年轻一代中的某种金融虚无主义使这种资产更具吸引力。

He believes that people will continue to buy cards tied to a strong and that an amount of financial nihilism amongst the younger generation makes the asset appealing.

不过，交易宝可梦卡片不仅仅是关于潜在收益。

Trading Pokemon cards isn't just about the potential gains though.

我们采访了里卡多·莫拉莱斯，他在自己的摊位上买了四张卡片。

We caught up with Ricardo Morales after he purchased four cards at his booth.

是的。

Oh, yeah.

我非常开心。

I'm very happy.

我只打算卖其中一张。

I'm only gonna sell one of them.

另一张会给我的妹妹，另外两张我得到的超梦卡，我会送给一位喜欢收集超梦卡的朋友。

The other one's gonna go to my sister, and the other two that I got, the two Mewtwo's, they're going to a friend of mine that loves collecting Mewtwo's.

所以

So

所以你来这里不仅仅是作为卖家。

so you're not here just as a vendor.

你也是作为收藏者来的。

You're here as a collector as well.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

对。

Yeah.

我热爱收藏，永远都热爱收藏。

I love collecting, broadband, collecting for forever.

我喜欢摆摊的原因是，它让我有机会与人交流，而且我还能以更便宜的价格买到自己想要的卡片。

And, what I like about vending is it gives me the opportunity to, you know, connect with people and I also, you know, able to buy cards that I want a, you know, little cheaper price.

正是像里卡多这样的人，凭借对宝可梦角色的热爱和怀旧情怀，真正推动了这场宝可梦热潮。

It's the people like Ricardo that are really backing this Pokemon boom with their love for its characters and the nostalgia.

但对于那些投机者来说，你打开的下一包卡片始终有可能价值数千美元——当然，还要扣除你需要缴纳的税款。

For those speculators though, there's always the chance that the next pack of cards you open could be worth thousands of dollars, minus the tax you owe, of course.

本集由科里·布里奇斯制作，音频工程由西娜·洛弗雷多负责。

This episode was produced by Corey Bridges with engineering from Sina Lofredo.

内容核查由西拉·华雷斯完成。

It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez.

凯特·康卡农是本节目的编辑。

Kate Concannon is the editor of the show.

《Indicator》是NPR制作的节目。

The indicator is a production of NPR.