你有关于住房的问题，一位经济学家回答了它们。

NPR。

NPR.

这里是《Planet Money》的《Indicator》节目。

This is The Indicator from Planet Money.

我是韦隆·王。

I'm Waylon Wong.

美国现有房屋的销售量已接近历史低点。

Existing home sales in The US are near record lows.

房地产网站Redfin的首席经济学家达里尔·费尔韦瑟表示，利率是主要原因。

Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for the real estate site Redfin, says interest rates are a big reason why.

自2022年抵押贷款利率上涨以来，买家和卖家都退出了市场。

Ever since mortgage rates went up in 2022, both buyers and sellers backed off the market.

达里尔说，结果就是市场陷入停滞。

What you get, Daryl says, is a stagnated market.

买家负担不起这么高的房价和贷款利率，而卖家也不愿搬走，因为那样就得放弃疫情期间拿到的低利率房贷。

Buyers can't afford to buy at these high prices and high mortgage rates, and sellers don't wanna move because that would mean giving up their very affordable mortgages they got during the pandemic.

今年我们看到情况有了一点好转。

This year, we've seen a bit of an improvement.

我觉得事情总算开始缓和了，但进展还是非常非常慢。

I think that, you know, things are starting to relax a bit, but it's very, very slow going.

所以现在买卖双方都挺难的，这也不奇怪。

So it's no surprise that a lot of buyers and sellers are having a hard time right now.

数据上能看出这一点，上周我们还直接听到了你们的声音。

We see it in the data, and last week, we heard about it directly from you.

《指标》节目为我们的NPR Plus及其他符合条件的支持者举办了一场线上活动。

The Indicator held a virtual event for our NPR plus and other qualifying supporters.

我们把它叫做‘问经济学家’，主题就是搞清楚为什么房地产市场这么僵持。

We called it Ask An Economist, and it was all about trying to make sense of the stagnant housing market.

我的联合主持人 Adrian Ma 和我，更重要的是我们的听众，都向 Daryl 提了问题。

Adrian Ma, my fellow co host, and I, and more importantly, our audience, got to put our questions to Daryl.

这就像是我们自己的听众来电节目。

It was like our very own call in show.

整个活动特别有趣，气氛热烈，内容也很有深度。

It was fun, lively, and full of insights.

所以今天在节目中，我们很高兴能和大家分享‘问经济学家’活动的音频片段。

So today on the show, we're excited to be able to share with you an audio excerpt of our Ask An Economist event.

稍后广告回来，我们马上播放。

That's coming up after the break.

最引人入胜的全球新闻，直接送到你的耳边。

The most compelling global stories straight to your ears.

这就是我们在NPR的《世界现状》所做的事。

That's what we do at State of the World from NPR.

从乌克兰、伊朗的局势，到埃博拉疫情，还有英国海狸如何应对气候变化的影响。

Developments in Ukraine, Iran, with Ebola, but also how British beavers are fighting the effects of climate change.

我们说过，海狸做这件事的成本可能只有几分之一，而且更环保。

So we said the beavers can do it probably fraction of the cost, certainly more sustainably.

每天工作日，请在NPR应用或你常用的播客平台收听《世界现状》。

Listen to State of the World every weekday on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

GLP类药物最出名的是用来减重，但它们也可能帮助人们减少饮酒、吸烟和使用阿片类药物。

GLP ones are best known as weight loss drugs, but they may also help people cut back on alcohol, cigarettes, and opioids.

它们似乎对多种成瘾类型都有效。

They seem to work for many types of addiction.

也许这些作用比我们之前想的要广泛得多。

Maybe these effects are much broader than we previously thought.

关于大脑、成瘾和同理心的见解。

Ideas about the brain, addiction, and empathy.

这些内容都在《TED电台秀》播客里。

That's on the TED Radio Hour podcast.

可以在NPR应用或你常用的播客平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

房贷利率越高，借钱的成本自然就越高。

The higher the mortgage rate, of course, the more expensive it is to borrow money.

本月，三十年期固定利率房贷的平均利率升至6.58%，是近一年来的最高水平。

And this month, the average rate on a thirty year fixed rate mortgage hit 6.58%, the highest level in nearly a year.

我问了红杉公司的经济学家达莉尔·费尔韦瑟，为什么利率会上升。

I asked economist Daryl Fairweather of Redfin why rates are climbing.

根本原因还是经济。

It's really the economy.

我的意思是，利率取决于整个经济的运行状况。

I mean, rates are based on everything that's happening in the economy.

当经济在增长时，就会给房贷利率带来上行压力。

When the economy is growing, that can put pressure on mortgage rates to go up.

另外，一旦出现通货膨胀，房贷利率也会随之上升。

But also when there's inflation, that also increases mortgage rates.

现在的经济形势是，增长势头强劲，同时通胀率也高于美联储的预期，这两点共同推高了房贷利率。

And in this economy, we have a fast growing economy, we also have higher inflation than at least the Fed is comfortable with, And that is contributing to these higher mortgage rates.

我本可以细说经济当前为何如此，但真正主导利率居高不下、让买房贷款变得难以负担的，就是这些大方向的因素。

I could get into all the little reasons why the economy is the way it is right now, but those are the big overarching factors keeping rates high and homes, at least for borrowing a home unaffordable.

明白了。

Yeah.

你之前提到过，高房贷利率对买家和卖家都有影响。

And you had, alluded to this a little bit earlier when you talked about the impact of high mortgage rates on both buyers and sellers.

所以你讲的其实就是我们节目里说的‘房贷锁定效应’，对吧？

And so you're kind of describing what we've covered on the show as kind of like a mortgage, lock in effect, right?

就是看看它怎么影响买家和卖家？

When you see how they affect buyers and sellers?

是的，现在的房地产市场跟历史上任何时期都不一样。

Yeah, this housing market is so different than anything we've seen historically.

通常情况下，房贷利率一上涨，买家就会退缩，因为负担不起那么高的贷款成本。

Normally when mortgage rates go up, buyers back off because they can't afford to borrow at high rates.

买家少了，卖家就得降价才能把房子卖出去。

And because there are fewer buyers, sellers have to drop their prices in order to get their homes sold.

但在这个市场里，卖家特别固执。

But in this market, sellers are very stubborn.

经济学家管这叫‘保留价格高’，意思是他们不愿意降价，宁愿把房子撤下来不卖。

They have what economists call high reservation prices, which means they're not willing to cut their prices, they would rather delist their homes.

很多房主根本不想卖房，他们宁愿继续持有低利率的房贷，因为再买房的话根本负担不起。

And many homeowners aren't even choosing to sell at all, they're just staying with their cheap mortgages because they couldn't afford to sell and buy again.

换成现在的利率，哪怕买个同样价格的房子，每月也要多花一千块，甚至更多。

It would cost them $1,000 more or even more a month just to get the same priced home at these higher rates.

其实这个问题不只是贷款利率的事。

Well, I mean, part of the picture here is not just rates for borrowing.

还有住房供应不足的问题，对吧？

It's also the shortage of supply, right?

关于住房缺口到底有多大，各种估算差异挺大的。

I mean, it seems like there are pretty varied estimates on how big the housing shortfall is.

从一百五十万到几百万套房子不等。

You know, it's anywhere from 1 and a half to several million homes.

你能说说导致这种短缺的两三个主要原因吗？

Can you talk about one or two of the big things that have resulted in this shortage?

房源这么少，根本不够满足所有想买房的人，主要原因就是所谓的‘邻避主义’——别建在我家后院。

The reason there are so few homes, not enough homes for everybody who wants a home, it mostly boils down to something called NIMBYism, which stands for not in my backyard.

当本地居民阻止新建住房，尤其是像公寓楼或 condominium 塔楼这样高密度的住宅时，就出现了这种情况。他们觉得这类建筑不符合郊区的审美，或者担心新增住房会拉低自家房产的价值，又或者害怕新搬来的人收入较低，和现有居民不匹配。

That's when homeowners who live in a local area block new housing development, especially dense housing, like apartment buildings or condo towers that they feel don't fit with the aesthetic of a suburban neighborhood, or maybe they're concerned about extra housing bringing down the value of their homes, or they're concerned about the price point bringing in people who might be lower income than the people who currently live there.

人们成为‘邻避主义者’的原因多种多样，但这些房主自己并不受住房负担能力危机的影响，因为他们已经拥有住房，而且房贷利率是固定的。

There's lots of different reasons why people might be NIMBYs, but these homeowners, they don't feel the impacts of the housing affordability crisis because they already own their home, they already have fixed rate mortgages.

他们通常有更多空闲时间，大多是退休人士，经常出席市议会会议，表达对新建住房项目的反对意见。

And they actually tend to have more free time, they tend to be retirees who show up at local city council meetings and voice their concerns about new housing getting developed.

至少在过去十年，甚至十五年里，这些人成功阻止了住房在人们最想居住、就业机会最多的地方兴建。

So for at least the last ten, maybe even fifteen years, these people have successfully blocked housing from being developed in the places people most want to live with the best job opportunities.

正因如此，房价才被推到了如今这么高的水平。

And that's how we got into this mess of home prices being as high as they are.

但在阳光地带的一些地区，比如奥斯汀、亚利桑那州和佛罗里达州，当地的法规更鼓励增加住房供应，允许更多建设，也较少赋予地方社区否决权。

But in places in the Sunbelt, Austin, for example, Arizona, Florida, the laws, they promote more housing, they allow for more housing, they don't give as much local control.

正因如此，这些地方的房价反而开始下降，住房负担能力也在改善。

And that's where we're actually seeing prices come down and affordability improve.

疫情期间需求高涨时，我们看到了大量住房建设。

We saw a lot of housing development during the pandemic when demand was very hot.

所以你可以看到，允许新建住房的地方和不允许的地方，房价走势是不一样的。

So you can see the differences between how prices play out in a place that allows for new construction versus places that don't.

明白了。

Okay.

在我们向达里尔提问之后，接下来我们开放了线上观众的提问环节。

So after AJ and I got to ask Daryl our questions, we then open things up to our virtual audience.

我的问题是，住房历来都被视为一种不错的投资。

My question is, housing has historically been viewed as a good investment.

这种看法对吗？

Was this perception true?

我们还期待它继续保持这样吗？

And do we expect that answer will remain the case?

还是说，这只是过去特定条件下的产物，而现在这些条件正在发生变化？

Or was it the product of historical conditions that might now be changing?

凯勒布，谢谢你的问题。

Caleb, thanks for your question.

达瑞，你怎么看？

What do you think, Daryl?

有好几个原因让人觉得住房永远都是个好投资。

There's a couple of reasons to think that housing is is always going to be a good investment.

其中一个原因是，人总得有个地方住。

One reason is that you need a place to live.

如果你租房，那就是在给房东交钱。

If you're renting, then you're paying your landlord.

如果你买房，那是在积累资产。

If you own, then you're building up equity.

不过我觉得这么说有点过于简单了，因为你也可以租房的同时每月存点钱，放进401(k)或者股票账户，照样能像房主一样积累财富。

Now, I think that's a bit of an oversimplification because you can pay your landlord and set some money aside and put it into a four zero one ks or your stock market account and still build wealth the same way that a homeowner would.

但出于行为习惯，很多人就是很难每个月坚持存钱，而买房的人不一样，他们每月还房贷，不知不觉就攒下了资产——当然，这并不是魔法，钱其实是他们自己付出去的。

But for behavioral reasons, it's really hard for a lot of people to save every single month and the way that they do save when they own a home, they just pay their mortgage and magically they build up equity, although it's not magic, they're paying for that.

但对很多人来说，买房确实是个简单直接的攒钱方式。

But I think for a lot of people, home ownership is just a really easy way for them to build wealth.

而且这种投资方式很接地气，毕竟人总得有个地方住。

And it's a very accessible type of investment because they need a place to live anyway.

房地产被视为好投资的另一个原因，是土地本身。

The other reason why real estate is viewed as a good investment is because of the land.

世界上土地总量是固定的，不会增加，但人口一直在增长，至少过去很长一段时间都是这样。

There is a fixed amount of land in this world and they're not making more of it, but we are making more people or at least for a long time we were making more people.

现在关于人口增长，有些人看法不一。

There's some debate about population growth nowadays.

但单凭这一点，很多人就觉得买房是好投资，因为他们相信，只要所在地区人口继续增加，未来对住房的需求就永远不会减少。

But for that reason alone, people viewed home ownership as a good investment because there would always be more demand for it in the future, assuming that the area that they're buying in the home is going to grow in population.

我觉得，过去确实一直如此。

And I think that that has been true moving forward.

不过还有一些其他因素要考虑，比如美国的人口趋势。

I think there are some other things to consider like population in The United States.

它还会持续增长吗？

Is that going to continue to grow?

婴儿潮一代去世后，他们的房子会怎样？这对房产投资价值会有什么影响？

What's going to happen to baby boomers homes when they pass on and how will that impact the investment value?

我觉得未来人们买房的原因会改变，不再仅仅是为了好的投资回报。

I think that the reasons why people buy homes are going to change in the future, and it's not just going to be for a good investment.

人们会更看重居住的体验，希望拥有一个真正属于自己的家。

I think people are going to think about more just the value of enjoying the home that they live in and having a home that's uniquely theirs.

达里尔还回答了观众的许多问题，其中包括来自科林的一个提问，他自称是个‘空巢’业主。

Daryl took a lot more questions from our audience, including this one from Colin, a self described near empty nester homeowner.

他说，孩子搬出去后，换个小房子是合情合理的。

He says it makes sense for him to downsize after his kids move out.

但因为房贷利率低，还有房产税减免这些财务优势，他选择继续住在这里。

But financial factors like his low rate mortgage and property tax exemption are keeping him in place.

所以我想知道，政府是否应该介入，为像我这样因为财务激励而不愿搬动、影响了住房市场的人做点什么？

So I'm wondering what, if any, role the government should have in addressing those factors for people like me that are gumming up the housing market because we have strong financial incentives to not move right now.

是的。

Yeah.

这种故事我听得太多了。

I hear stories like that all the time.

我们做过报道，指出婴儿潮一代拥有的三居室及以上住房，比有孩子的千禧一代还多，这种住房分配其实并不合理。

We've done reporting about how baby boomers own more three bedroom plus homes than millennials with families like empty nest or baby boomers and how this is a misallocation of housing.

人们总爱把责任推给婴儿潮一代，说都是他们的错，但他们其实只是在回应你提到的那些激励因素。

I think people love to kind of pile on the baby boomers and tell them that it's their fault, but they're just responding to the incentives like you laid out.

要改善现状，我们得打造一些真正能让你心动的住房。

I think in order to improve the situation, we need to create housing that someone like you would really be excited to move into.

比如更密集的社区，步行就能满足日常所需，等你年纪大了，也不那么依赖开车，身边还有朋友，能一起参加活动。

Denser housing where you can access all the amenities you need, maybe as you age, you wouldn't be as reliant on a car where you would have friends who are nearby, who you can do activities with.

不然的话，人们只能继续留在独栋住宅区里，过着孤立的生活，这其实对健康和生活质量都没什么好处，只是眼下这成了他们唯一负担得起的选择。

Because otherwise, people are gonna stay in their homes in these single family neighborhoods isolated, and it's not actually going to be all that beneficial for them, but it's the most affordable option for them at this moment.

所以，归根结底，我们得重新审视这些激励机制。

So, yeah, we really just need to look at the incentives.

再次感谢来自Redfin的达里尔·费尔韦瑟。

Thanks again to Daryl Fairweather of Redfin.

她还是《恨这个游戏：生活、爱情与工作的经济 cheat codes》一书的作者。

She is also the author of the book, hate the game, economic cheat codes for life, love, and work.

想收听完整活动内容，请订阅 NPR Plus。

To hear the entire event, make sure you're signed up for NPR plus.

我们下周会把这段内容作为 Planet Money 节目的附加集发布。

We'll be publishing it as a bonus episode in the Planet Money feed next week.

本集由 BLE 制作，事实核查由维托·埃马努埃尔负责，音频工程由罗伯特·罗德里格斯完成。

This episode was produced by BLE, was fact checked by Vito Emanuel, and engineered by Robert Rodriguez.

凯克·坎农负责剪辑，The Indicator 是 NPR 的出品。

Caking Cannon edits the show, and the Indicator is a production of NPR.

本广告由 NPR 葡萄酒俱乐部赞助，该俱乐部已为 NPR 筹集了超过 175 万美元。

This message comes from the NPR wine club, which has generated over $1,750,000 to support NPR.

无论只是买几瓶酒，还是加入俱乐部，详情请访问 nprwineclub.org/podcast。

Whether buying a few bottles or joining the club, learn more at nprwineclub.org/podcast.

购买者须年满 21 周岁。

Must be 21 or older to purchase.

这里是《新鲜空气》的戴夫·戴维斯。

This is Fresh Air's Dave Davies.

著名古典学者艾米丽·威尔逊因批评克里斯托弗·诺兰改编的《奥德赛》剧本写得极差而引发热议。

Renowned classic scholar Emily Wilson made headlines when she called Christopher Nolan's adaptation of the Odyssey abysmally written.

这是个风格化的群像剧，演员们已经尽全力演绎了手头的剧本。

It's a style study cast, and they're doing their absolute best with the script they were given.

我跟威尔逊聊了聊她这番尖锐的批评，还有更多内容。

I talked with Wilson about her scathing critique and so much more.

请在 NPR 应用程序上，或您常用的播客平台收听《新鲜空气》。

Listen to Fresh Air on the NPR app or wherever you listen to podcasts.