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欢迎各位收看Informations TI TV。
Welcome everyone to the Informations TI TV.
我叫阿卡什·卡斯里特沙。
My name is Akash Kasritsha.
今天是10月3日，星期五。
It is Friday, October 3.
今天我们为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。
We have got a great show planned for you today.
几分钟后，我们将与Andero公司的首席执行官进行一场精彩的对话，请不要换台。
We've got a great conversation with the CEO of Andero coming up in just a few minutes, so do not go anywhere.
我们还将探讨Informations最新推出的深度研究工具对人工智能和可穿戴设备领域的预测分析。
We are also taking a look at what the information's new deep research tool is telling us about its predictions for AI and also for the wearable sector.
我们还将邀请Semaphore的几位嘉宾以及我们的AI记者，聊聊他们对人工智能领域未来发展的看法。
We're going to bring on some friends at the show from Semaphore and our AI reporter to talk about what they think is coming for the AI sector.
最后但同样重要的是，我非常期待深入探讨我们今天发布的一篇关于Reed Jobs的专访，他是Steve Jobs的儿子，最近成立了一家专注于癌症初创企业的风险投资基金。
And last but not least, I am really excited to dig into a profile that we published today on Reed Jobs, the son of Steve Jobs, who has a new venture fund dedicated to cancer startups.
这将是一场精彩的节目。
It's going to be a great show.
让我们直接进入我们的第一位嘉宾。
Let's get right into our first guest.
安德罗尔一直是国防科技领域最受关注的公司之一，而国防科技无疑是硅谷增长最快的领域之一。
Andoril has been one of the most closely watched companies in defense tech, which of course is one of the fastest growing pockets of Silicon Valley.
我想请我们的主编杰西卡·莱森，来分享她与安德罗尔联合创始人兼首席执行官布莱恩·辛普夫的广泛对话。
I want to turn it to our editor in chief, Jessica Lessen, for a wide ranging conversation that she had with Andoril's co founder and CEO, Brian Schimpf.
以下是杰西卡和布莱恩。
Here is Jessica and Brian.
谢谢，阿卡什。
Thank you, Akash.
今天能与安德罗尔的联合创始人兼首席执行官布莱恩·辛普夫在一起，我非常高兴。
I am so happy to be here today with the co founder and CEO of Androle, Brian Schimpf.
布莱恩，感谢你做客TI TV。
Brian, thanks for joining TI TV.
嘿，谢谢邀请我参加。
Hey, thanks for having me on.
这确实是一段疯狂的时光。
Well, it's been a wild time.
我常常想，我们如今认为处于一切中心的公司——除了那些AI公司，虽然你也算是其中之一——过去几年对Androle来说简直不可思议。
I often think what we think about companies in the center of everything in this moment, minus the AI guys, although you're kind of one of those two, it's just been an incredible couple of years for Androle.
我想TI TV的观众都知道，Androle成立于2017年，一直专注于国防领域，特别致力于降低武器和其他战争用品的成本。
I think TITV viewers know that Androle founded in 2017 now has been is in the defense space focused specifically on bringing down the cost of weapons and other items used in warfare.
在它的历史中，你或许曾是一个颇具争议的公司，但我认为现在它显然正处于一个非常重要的时刻。
And we'll get to you maybe later has been a somewhat controversial company over its history, but I think now clearly at a very important moment.
所以再次感谢你，Brian。
So thank you again, Brian.
我想先问问你关于业务的事。
So I want to start by asking you about the business.
我认为《The Information》的同事们报道过，去年你们的收入超过了10亿美元，并且增长迅速。
I think my colleagues at The Information reported that last year your revenues were over $1,000,000,000 growing quickly.
今年的增长情况如何？增长来自哪里？
What's happening to growth this year, and where is it coming from?
是的。
Yeah.
今年我们的收入增长将超过100%。
So we're gonna see revenue growth over a 100% this year.
我们增长最大的领域实际上是生产方面。
We have biggest area of increase has really been on the production side.
我们开始制造更多系统，部署更多系统。
So we've started making a lot more systems, fielding a lot more systems.
我们把自身的硬件生产规模提升了大约250%。
We're scaling the hardware production that we do by, I think, 250%.
今年的实际增幅甚至可能更高，明年我们也预计会有几乎相同的增长。
Might actually even be a little higher this year and expect to see, you know, a nearly similar increase next year as well.
那我们来详细聊聊。
And so let's talk through.
你知道吗，现在每天都有新闻报道澳大利亚的自主潜艇、自主战斗机。
I I you know, every day now, there's a headline about autonomous submarines in Australia, autonomous fighter jets.
那些可能还需要更长的时间才能实现。
Those might be a little further off.
目前公司在产品和服务方面的情况如何？你认为几年后会变成什么样？
Where is the business now in terms of products and services, and where do you think it'll be in a couple of years?
我们最初起步时，做了很多像边境安全这样的项目，这已经成为我们非常成功的业务。
So when we started off, we worked on a lot of things like border security, which has been a very successful business for us.
我们得到了两党极大的支持，最初是在特朗普第一任期内启动的，在拜登任期内大幅增长，并且未来还会继续增长。
We've had amazing bipartisan support at you know, started under the first Trump administration, grew tremendously under Biden, and and continuing to grow going forward.
这对我们来说已经是一个非常成熟的产品了。
That's been a very mature product for us.
在反无人机方面，我们很早就开始着手解决这些问题，而且这个领域已经取得了巨大发展。
The on the counter drone side, that's another area where very early on, we set out to to kinda work on these problems and the is really scaled.
对吧？
Right?
我们在那里实现了巨额收入。
We're we're doing a huge amount of revenue there.
我们已经在作战区域部署了系统。
We have fielded systems in combat zones.
我们正在看到常态化的实战应用。
We're seeing regular operational use.
因此，这是一个极其成功的领域。
So it's been an incredibly successful area.
我们正在大量生产我们的‘路跑者’系统，即地对空弹药。
We're producing a ton of surface to air munitions, our Roadrunner system.
在这一领域，我们也看到了巨大的规模扩张。
We're seeing a huge amount of scale on that front as well.
在过去一年里，我们还进入了多个不同的领域。
In the last year, we've kinda moved into a number of different areas as well.
其中一个就是这类自主平台。
So one has been kind of this class of autonomous platforms.
这就是我们与澳大利亚皇家海军合作研发的自主潜艇。
So it's this autonomous submarine you referenced that we've been working on with the Royal Australian Navy.
就在过去几个月里，这个项目已从开发阶段转入全面量产阶段。
That's now moved from a development program into a full operational production program as of just in the last couple of months.
我们正在与美国空军合作开发其协同作战飞机。
We're working with the US Air Force on their collaborative combat aircraft.
这是一种全尺寸战斗机，能够与其他战斗机协同飞行，提供支援、前出侦察、承担风险，从而避免有人驾驶平台陷入危险。
This is like a full size fighter jet that flies along with other fighter jets to provide them support, put them out in front, put it in harm's way so that the manned platforms don't have to be at risk.
这个项目进展得非常顺利。
And this is going incredibly well.
目前我们正处于研发阶段。
We're in development now.
几周内我们就要开始试飞了。
We'll be flying in a couple of weeks here.
对于如此复杂的航空项目来说，进展速度令人难以置信。
It's moving along at an incredible pace for an aircraft program of this complexity.
我们已经进入了太空能力领域，这非常令人兴奋。
We've moved into some space capabilities, which is really exciting.
而我特别热衷的一个领域是弹药。
And then one of the areas that I'm particularly passionate about is the area of munitions.
这对美国来说是一个重大的战略威慑风险。
This is a major strategic deterrence risk for The US.
你看乌克兰战场，那场冲突中消耗的弹药数量之大，正反映出世界当前所需的战略储备，以遏制敌对势力的侵略。
You know, you look at Ukraine, just the sheer volume of munitions that are consumed in that fight, I think, is indicative of what the world is seeing in terms of what we need to have to deter aggression from our adversaries.
再看俄罗斯已经大幅提升的生产能力，规模巨大，在许多方面，其产能已超过整个北约的总和。
And you look at the production that Russia has been able to ramp up on, it is massive and, in many ways, outproducing all of NATO combined on the capabilities that they're fielding.
因此，这是一个重大问题，我们确实专注于你所提到的方面。
So this is a major issue, and we've really focused on exactly what you said.
我们正在研究低成本、更智能、更自主的系统，如何将现代制造和现代技术的最佳成果融入国防领域，实现大规模生产。
We're looking at lower cost, smarter, more autonomous systems, and how can we build the best of modern manufacturing and modern technology and bring it into the defense world and be able to produce these at a huge scale.
当你谈到推动这些新物品乃至新类别产品投入生产的有利因素时，特朗普第二任期政府一开始的表态就很明确，尤其是对科技行业，承诺要减少繁文缛节。
So when you talk about some of the tailwinds about getting these new, well, items into production and also new categories, When the Trump admit second Trump administration began, its message was clear, certainly to the tech industry, that it was gonna cut the red tape.
你的经验是这样吗？
Has that been your experience?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得，你知道，所有这些政府都需要时间来稳定下来。
I I think, you know, like, all these administrations take time to get settled.
对吧？
Right?
任命的人选需要时间到位。
Appointees take time to get in.
他们得弄清楚哪些有效，哪些无效。
They have to figure out what's working and what's not.
他们得清理掉他们不同意的东西，然后制定计划，真正向前推进未来的方向。
They've gotta clean up things they disagree with, and then make the plan to actually move out and move forward on what the future is.
再加上一种相当前所未有的预算结构、协调机制，以及所有这些以前从未发生过的独特方式，比如全年持续决议。
Combine this all with a fairly unprecedented budget structure, reconciliation, all these unique ways that have never occurred before, full year continuing resolutions.
这简直是一个任何政府都难以应对的独特运营环境。
Like, this is just a very unique operating environment for any administration to be able to operate.
他们现在才真正开始站稳脚跟。
They're really starting to get their feet underneath them.
我们看到的是，对工业基础中存在的问题有着非常清晰的关注。
And what we're seeing is, you know, a very clear eyed focus on where are the problems on industrial base.
我们需要修复哪些关键威慑能力，以应对我们的对手？
What do we need to fix that are the kind of key deterrent capabilities that we need to have against our adversaries?
然后全力推动，立即取得成果。
And then really driving those hard in terms of get results and get results now.
所以我认为这是件好事。
And so I think this is a great thing.
对吧？
Right?
无论这是我们还是工业基础中的其他参与者，这正是我们所需要的。
Like, whether that's us or any other performer in the industrial base is exactly what we need to see.
有很多问责制，非常关注关键问题。
A lot of accountability, a lot of focus on the critical problems.
因此，我对所有这些方面都非常乐观。
And so I've been very bullish on sort of all of those fronts.
感觉这些举措正是正确的方向，你知道，随着他们任命新官员，情况正在好转。
It it feels like the right set of actions to take, you know, as they're getting appointees in, this is going better.
现在有更多的人来实际运作和领导这些项目。
There's more people to, like, actually run and lead these these programs.
因此，我对这一点非常乐观。
And so I I've been very optimistic on that.
关于削减繁文缛节和这些方面，你知道，我的看法是，只要出现明显不合理的问题，我们就该问：为什么我们要这么做？
On the cutting red tape and all these pieces, you know, I think the answer is, like, anytime there's been discreet obvious issues so that this doesn't make any sense, why are we doing it?
我们通过指出这些问题并推动解决，已经取得了不少成功。
We've had a lot of success just flagging those things and and and driving the resolution on it.
所以归根结底，我认为这非常务实，注重成果，这很好。
So I think it's just very pragmatic at the end of the day and a focus on results, which is great.
这正是我们这家快速成长、致力于为作战人员提供支持的公司所期望的。
That's exactly what we want as a company that's growing fast and just trying to deliver to the warfighter.
政府停摆对你们有什么影响？
How does the government shutdown affect you?
你知道，很多事情都变慢了。
You know, it a lot of things slow down.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，国防部的许多部门仍然
You know, a lot of parts of DOD are still
我们没能在旧金山看到蓝天使飞行表演。
We're not getting Blue Angels in San Francisco.
我的意思是
I mean
太糟糕了。
brutal.
我的意思是，你知道，每个人都得付钱
I mean, you know, everyone has to has to pay
他们的一份。
their part.
我担心
I I worry
其他人。
about the other people.
但是，是的，
But, yes,
这对你来说就是这个意思。
that's what it means for you.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，你知道，就是政府基本运作的方方面面。
So the you know, what it it's just all the things of just the basic functioning of government.
你怎么让合同写好并签署呢？
How do you get contracts written, you know, and signed?
你怎么让所有这些事情都执行下去？
How do get all these things executed?
一切都停滞了。
It all just stalls.
所以，如果停滞一两周、甚至四周，就要花上好几周才能重新启动。
And so, you know, if it stalls for one, two, four weeks, it'll take, you know, several weeks to get it back online.
所以，这种进展停滞确实会产生非常显著的影响。
So it does have a a very meaningful impact, this, you know, progress stalls.
对我们公司来说，今年我们本来就已经处于一个还不错的状态。
For us for the year, we were already in a position that we were pretty okay.
对吧？
Right?
所以对我们这样的公司来说，我们处境不错，正在推进很多持续性项目。
So for a company like us, we're in a pretty good spot, working a lot of continuing programs.
这没问题。
It it's fine.
更大的问题在于，当你处于快速增长阶段并需要这些新事物推进时，那会非常非常痛苦。
The the bigger issue is when you're in rapid growth and you need these new things to go, that is very, very painful.
所以我认为，这对许多新的国防领域参与者的影响比对我们更大。
And so I think it probably impacts a lot of the newer defense players a lot more than it in the hits us.
明白了。
Got it.
那我们想转向硅谷和一些更技术导向的初创公司呢？
And what about where we wanna shift to the Valley and some of the more techie start up things?
但在当前这个外交政策极其复杂的时刻，显然世界上有多场战争，许多都颇具争议。
But at this incredibly complicated moment in foreign policy, obviously we've got multiple wars around the world, many of them controversial.
我的意思是，战争本质上都是有争议的，但你曾为多个政府工作过。
I mean, I guess all wars are by definition, but you've you've worked across many administrations.
但这个特殊时刻对安德鲁造成了怎样的影响？
But how is this moment in particular affecting Andrew?
那么，您如何平衡您的业务与美国政府的价值观呢？
And how do you balance, you know, your business with the values of the US government?
是的。
Yeah.
地缘政治局势正如您所说。
So the the geopolitical situation is exactly what you said.
这是地区冲突最激烈的时期之一，回顾第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战，我们发现地区不稳定往往就是从那时开始加剧的。
It is one of the highest periods of regional conflict, and that is frequently when you look back at World War one, World War two, regional instability started to increase.
碎片化现象加剧了。
Balkanization increased.
人们武装自己的数量增加了，因为您正进入一个不稳定的世界。
The, you know, the amount people would arm themselves increased because you were entering an unstable world.
所以，现在有很多前兆。
So there's a lot of precursors.
因此，这让我们对近期局势是会好转还是恶化感到非常担忧和犹豫。
And so that gives us just a lot of fear and pause around, you know, is this going to get better or worse in in the near term period?
我们所看到的，是这一趋势的延续，而这一趋势与特朗普无关。
What we've been seeing is this is a continuation of a trend that is independent of Trump.
对吧？
Right?
对我们而言，这种情况的发展方式是，国际伙伴和盟友正在认真考虑：好吧。
And the the way this has played out for us has been, you know, international partners and allies really are looking to say, okay.
如果我要增加国防开支，首先，我想知道我是否真的能拿到我所支付的装备。
If I'm gonna increase defense spending, one, I wanna know that I'm actually going to get the equipment that I'm paying for.
各国的这些订单积压情况非常严重。
The backlog on these orders from countries is is massive.
例如，对台湾的外国军售积压订单高达200亿美元。
So for example, like, the foreign military sales backlog to Taiwan is on the order of $20,000,000,000.
这相当于五到六艘核潜艇的规模，你知道吧？
So, like, five to six nuclear submarines worth, like, it's it's it's you know?
这就是国防体系的运作方式吗？
And this is just how the defense system works?
这很典型，非常典型。
This is, like, typical Very typical.
时间。
Time.
好的。
Okay.
你看，如果你想购买爱国者导弹。
You look at like, you wanna buy Patriot missiles.
生产周期要两到三年，更别提已经积压的订单和系统产能饱和的问题了。
It's a two to three year production lead time, let alone the backlog of existing orders and the capacity saturation that exists in the system.
每个人都需要这些。
And everyone needs these.
现在每个人都想要这些。
Everyone wants these right now.
因此，确实存在一种切实的担忧：即使你下了订单、承诺了美国，希望获得美国最先进的装备，你也无法在有意义的时间内看到它们。
And so there's there's a very real fear that even if you place these orders, you commit to The US, and you want to have the best equipment, which The US has, then you aren't gonna see it in a meaningful time frame.
因此，这里存在很多担忧，这推动了人们对如何利用本地供应链、加强对生产的控制的浓厚兴趣，实际上涉及许多主权方面的顾虑。
So there's a lot of fear there, and that's driving a lot of interest in ways of how do they tap into local supply chains, have more control over production, really a lot of these sovereignty concerns.
而且，如果我要花掉大量GDP，我就希望看到就业方面的回报。
And you marry that with, if I'm gonna spend a lot of my GDP, I wanna see a return in jobs.
对于一个国家来说，这种想法是合情合理的。
Like, that is a rational thing for a country to want.
因此，我们一直看到国际合作伙伴对这个问题的看法发生了很大变化。
So we've been seeing just a lot of, you know, kind of shift in how the international partners are viewing this.
这是我们一直非常坚定地看待的问题。
It's something that we've been very forged
看待它。
viewing it.
你能解释一下，你看到的变化具体是什么吗？
Could you explain like, what's the shift you're seeing?
过去，就是买美国货，一切都会顺利解决。
Historically, was just buy you American, and it's all gonna work out.
对吧？
Right?
在你确信不会有人攻击你、不会向你发射导弹、你根本不需要这些东西的时候，那一切都很好。
And in a time when you were convinced nobody was going to attack you, shoot any missiles, or you weren't really gonna need this stuff, that was all good.
对吧？
Right?
如果需要五年，是的。
Like, if it takes five years Yep.
一切都好。
It's all good.
现在没人相信他们有五年时间可以等待。
Nobody believes they have five years to wait right now.
因此，这种对速度的渴望和每个人感受到的紧迫感要高得多。
So just this desire for speed and the urgency that everyone feels is is much, much higher.
我们在太平洋国家身上看到这一点最为明显。
We see it the most with Pacific countries.
你知道，特别是台湾、日本、韩国，都有一种强烈的紧迫感。
You know, particularly Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, there's a lot of feeling of urgency.
我们看到，那些与俄罗斯接壤的欧洲国家也普遍存在这种情况。
We see this a lot with the European countries that are sort of closest to Russia.
对吧？
Right?
斯堪的纳维亚国家和东欧国家。
Scandinavian countries, Eastern European countries.
他们迫切希望解决这个问题，并且希望快速看到成果。
There is a lot of urgency to solve this problem, and they want results fast.
因此，他们对传统上如何从美国采购的看法，与今天相比发生了巨大变化。
And so there has been a very significant shift in how they view the traditional approach of how they would buy from The US versus sort of where they are today.
就像你所说的，我们本质上是一家美国公司。
Like you said, fundamentally, we're a US company.
对吧？
Right?
我们必须与美国政策保持一致。
We have to be aligned with US policy.
我们希望与美国政策保持一致。
We wanna be aligned with US policy.
我认为，正是这段不稳定时期，让全世界的人都意识到美国是全球稳定最终的保障。
And I think, you know, if anything, this period of instability is reminding everyone around the world that The US is the ultimate backstop of global stability.
这才是关键。
Like, that is the key.
他们知道与美国的联盟至关重要。
And they know that those alliances with The US are important.
没有美国，北约就不存在。
NATO does not exist without The US.
否则，就缺乏一个真正的支柱来推动这一切。
There is not the, you know, anchor to really drive this otherwise.
其他国家扮演着至关重要的角色，但我认为这种美关系的程度是非常、非常重要的。
These other countries play a massive role, but I think this sort of degree of US relationship is very, very important.
而那些成熟的政策制定者能够看透当下情绪和挫败感，理解他们觉得自己是被善待还是被冷落的瞬间感受，并看清这一局势的长期走向——只有拥有强大的联盟，这一切才可能成功。
And the sophisticated policymakers can kinda see through the emotions and the frustrations of, you know, the moment of how they feel like they're either being treated well or poorly and understand what the long arc of this looks like, which is this is only going to work if we have a strong alliance.
美国是这一保障的最后支柱。
The US is the backstop for that.
没有其他可信的替代方案，而硬实力威慑比以往任何时候都更加重要，以确保这种稳定保障。
There is no credible alternative, and, you know, hard power deterrence is more important than ever to ensure that backstop of stability.
那么，如果你能预知三年后的景象，那会是什么样子？
And so if you had a crystal ball three years from now, what does the picture look like?
说实话，我很难想象会有什么协议能让普京相信武力不再有效，让伊朗相信一切都会安好，现状就能维持下去。
You know, the it's hard for me to imagine that there's some deal to be done that gets, you know, Putin believing that force won't work anymore, NG believing everything's gonna be fine and the status quo works.
我看不出这样的世界会实现。
I don't see a world that happens.
对吧？
Right?
伊朗不会原地不动。
Iran is not going to stay still.
他们会重新集结。
They're gonna regroup.
他们会收缩防线。
They're gonna retrench.
他们的看法是，使用武力的代价相对较低，而削弱西方联盟是他们最有可能成功的途径。
And the view is very much that, you know, the consequences for using force are comparatively low and that undermining that Western alliance is their best chance of success.
我很难想象这种情况会发生改变。
It is hard for me to imagine that changes.
我认为这将表现为更多的地区不稳定，从很多方面来看，你可以把乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突视为一场代理人战争。
I think that will look like more regional instability, more, you know, kind of in many ways, you can view, Ukraine, Russia as a proxy conflict.
我认为这实际上是中方在支持这场代理人战争。
I view it as actually China's buttressing the proxy conflict.
你觉得乌克兰在哪里制造了四百万架无人机？
Where do you think Ukraine is manufacturing 4,000,000 drones?
他们可不是在生产发动机。
Like, they're not making motors.
他们也没有制造电池。
They're not making batteries.
所有这些都来自中国。
It's all coming from China.
对销售没有任何限制。
There's been no restriction on sales.
因此，现实将是这种情况将持续非常不稳定。
And so the, the reality is going to be that this stays quite unstable.
很难想象情况会变得更糟。
It's hard for imagine getting less.
我认为，美国既有能力阻止这些冲突，也有意愿表明规则存在，而且我们会执行这些规则，而这最终将形成威慑。
And I think the imperative is The US has both the capability to deter these conflicts and the will to show that there are rules and we will enforce them, And that's ultimately which will create deterrence.
这将为更多和平的外交谈判创造空间，因为人们不会认为使用阴谋、破坏、侵略行为，甚至全面冲突会是一种有效的策略。
It will create the space to allow more peaceful diplomatic negotiations to go, because people don't believe that resorting to subterfuge, sabotage, aggressive action, or, you know, even full scale conflict will be an effective strategy.
是的。
Yeah.
这似乎很有可能。
It seems likely.
好的。
Okay.
好吧，稍微换个话题。
Well, shifting gears slightly.
安德鲁，你们是一家获得风险投资的公司。
Andrew, you're a VC backed company.
没人想到会这样。
No one thought kind of plus.
但确实，我觉得在硅谷这里，看到人们对任何硬件都持怀疑态度，这非常有意思。
But, yes, I mean, I I think it's been so interesting out here in the valley to see, you know, first, just the skepticism towards any kind of hardware.
但你知道，你们已经筹集了巨额资金，我认为估值达到了300亿美元以上。
But, you know, you've managed to raise a tremendous amount of capital, I think, at a, you know, upwards of a $30,000,000,000 valuation.
我想问的是，从资本角度来看，你们接下来打算怎么做？
I guess my question is, where do you go from here on the capital side?
你们需要再融资吗？
Do you need to raise more money?
你们打算从哪里获得资金？
And where are you gonna get it from?
公开市场和私募市场的情况如何？
What do the public markets look like versus the private markets?
以我们目前的增长速度来发展一家硬件公司，成本真的非常高。
So growing a hardware company at the rate we're growing at turns out to be really expensive.
这还不算
And this isn't even
抱歉，我说重了。
just double sorry.
我的意思是，收入翻倍，这并不是那种
But I mean, doubling revenue, that that is not sort of
这并不容易。
It's not easy.
也许你会期待像ChatGPT或OpenAI这样的公司实现惊人的增长。
Might expect that of the chat GBTs of the world or the OpenAI, you know, doing incredible growth.
但值得停一下，想想在硬件领域实现这样的高速增长有多难。
But but it is worth pausing that that is that is fast growth in hardware.
当你在生产实体产品时，这真的非常困难。
It is very hard to do when you're producing physical things.
也许这就是你想表达的意思。
Maybe this is where you were going.
所以他们本不该如此。
So they shouldn't have been
被打断了。
right interrupted.
现实是，你在建成工厂的一到两年后，才能获得有效的产能利用率。
The the the reality is you're, you know, you're building a factory one to two years before you're getting productive utilization out of it.
这甚至还是部分利用率的情况。
That's even, like, partial utilization.
你需要三到五年才能达到满负荷运转。
You get to full utilization over three to five years.
你已经做得不错了。
You're doing pretty good.
所以你要提前为所有这些过剩产能付费。
So you're paying for all that excess capacity upfront.
库存以及所有的营运资金。
Inventory and, like, all the working capital.
这个概念现在连金融界很多人都已经不再考虑了。
It's a concept that very few people in finance even think about anymore.
我花钱建造库存是为了把它卖出去。
It cost me money to build inventory to sell it.
这些概念对硅谷的大多数人来说都非常陌生。
These are very foreign concepts to most people in the Valley.
现在我们有了数据中心。
Well, now we have the data centers.
所以他们开始理解了
So they're starting to understand
他们又在增加资本支出。
They're getting CapEx again.
是的。
Yeah.
他们并不知道
They don't they don't know
资本支出。
CapEx.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
他们获得了资本支出。
They get CapEx.
因此，有很多非常外来、非常传统的观念，关于像这样经营一家企业实际上需要什么。
And so there's a lot of these very foreign, very traditional concepts of what it actually takes to run a business like this.
所以实际上，这些成本很高。
So the the in reality, those are expensive.
这是一个好问题。
And it's a it's a good problem to have.
对吧？
Right?
也就是说，我们做得不错。
Like, are we are doing well.
我们的业务正在取得成功。
Our business is succeeding.
我们正在快速增长。
We're scaling very fast.
客户正在需求我们提供的产品。
Customers are demanding the products we have.
他们取得了很好的运营成果，但这需要花钱。
They're having great operational success, but the but it costs money.
所以我们还会融资吗？
So will we raise more?
你知道，我觉得我们会。
You know, I think we will.
关于这笔资金的用途
In terms of where that
你盈利了吗？
assume you're are you profitable?
我们还没有盈利。
We are not profitable yet.
对吧？
Right?
再说一遍，增长很快，但非常昂贵。
Again, growing fast, very, very expensive.
如果我们希望每年增长20%或10%，我相信我们能很快实现盈利。
The the you know, if we wanted to grow at 20% or 10% a year, I'm sure we could be profitable very fast.
但是
But
但这不是我们正在做的事。
that's not what we're doing here.
是的。
Yep.
至于这些资本从何而来，我的看法是，目前有大量资金涌入私人领域的成长阶段基金。
The the where this capital comes from, you know, my view of this is there's been a tremendous amount of demand flowing into the private, you know, kind of growth stage funds.
许多传统上的公开市场投资者正转向这一领域，兴趣浓厚。
There's a lot of interest from, you know, kind of traditionally public investors crossing over.
现在大多数共同基金都已进入这些成长阶段基金。
Most of the mutual funds now cross over into those growth stage funds.
无论他们是直接投资，还是通过向其他风投提供资本，那里都有大量资金在流动。
And whether they're just directly investing or they're providing capital into other VCs, you know, there's just a lot of capital flowing around there.
我认为人们相信，私人市场的回报将与过去十年公开市场的回报非常相似。
I think the belief is that the private market returns will look a lot like the public market returns have looked like for the last ten years.
回报的高度集中体现在前十家公司身上。
The concentration in return is very high on the top 10 companies.
是的。
Yeah.
所以
And so
如果它们上市，我的意思是，或者说，我们其实可以永远进行二级市场交易。
If they go public, I mean or, I mean, I guess we could do secondaries forever.
对。
Yeah.
你对此怎么看？
What do you think about that?
我觉得Andro最终会成为一家上市公司。
Like, is is and I feel like Andro will be eventually a public company.
是那样吗？
Is that Yeah.
你怎么看？
How you think about it?
我觉得我们会的。
I think we will.
我的意思是，但美国这种令人惊叹的资本市场结构的好处在于，你拥有无限的选择权，可以打造最有效的业务。
I mean but the benefit of this, like, amazing capital market structure that exists in The US is you have all the optionality in the world to make the most effective business you can.
对吧？
Right?
我们可以做出决策，而不会被逼迫做出次优选择。
And we can make we are not constrained into making suboptimal decisions.
我们可以选择真正合理的时机。
We can choose the timing that actually makes sense.
对我们来说，我们的信念是，我们正在取得巨大进展。
And for us, our belief is we're going great.
我们能够获得资本。
We have access to capital.
我们可以为投资者和员工提供流动性。
We can provide liquidity to investors and employees.
需求足够高，因此这一切都进行得非常顺利。
The demand is sufficiently high that this this works out great.
所以我们完全不着急。
And so we're not in a rush at all.
但我想，当我们能够毫无疑问地证明我们具备规模化能力，拥有能够持续生产的工厂时。
But I think when we prove, you know, kind of beyond a shadow of a doubt that we can scale, we've got factories that produce.
我们的核心商业模式，已经在我们目前验证过的几个地方反复证明了其有效性。
Our, you know, our business core business model is working again and again and again beyond the, like, handful of places we've proved it to date.
到那时，上市将变得轻而易举。
That will be trivial easy to go public at that point.
但我们还不
But we're not
不着急，
in a rush,
我们也不需要做
and we don't need to do
我喜欢这一点。
I like that.
是的。
Yeah.
只是我们不需要这种干扰。
It's just we don't need the distraction.
我们不需要
We don't need the
涉及的交易。
involved deal.
比如，成为上市公司后更容易获得合同吗？
Like, is it easier to get contracts if you're a public company?
或者我想象，在理论上，你们可能会因为所处的行业类别而面临一些限制，比如主权财富基金可能是一种资金类型。
Or I imagine, in theory, you guys might face some restrictions because of the categories you're in about the you know, for instance, sovereign wealth is maybe a type of money.
我不知道安多里尔有没有主权财富投资者，甚至不确定法律是否允许这类投资。
I don't know if there are any sovereign wealth investors in Andoril, but I don't even know if that would be allowed under the law.
大概不行。
Probably not.
是的。
Yeah.
对于谁可以持有你们的股份以及持股比例，有明确的限制。
There there's straightforward restrictions on who can own you and what percentage.
很简单。
It's pretty simple.
明白了。
Got it.
这是有公式可循的，而且我们现在规模足够大，所以持有公司5%的股份成本非常高。
It's formula, and we're big enough now that, you know, getting 5% of the company, it's really expensive.
所以，根本不存在5%到10%的流通股在外面。
So the like, there isn't five to 10% float sitting out there.
你根本拿不到。
You can't get it.
它。
It.
所以从合规角度来看，这些对我们来说都是很简单的事情。
So I think these are are pretty simple things for us from from the compliance side.
从外界认知的角度来看，我觉得这其实是一把双刃剑。
From the, you know, kind of perception side, I think it kinda cuts both ways.
所以，历史上人们一直认为，除非你是上市公司，否则你就不算在顶级圈子里。
So, you know, I think historically, the view had been, you're not playing in the big leagues unless you're a public company.
但我觉得现在情况已经不一样了。
And and I don't think that's the case anymore.
事实上，这个行业里的传统参与者一直传递着一致的信息：他们的华尔街激励机制正在阻碍他们进行投资。
And in fact, the the message has been so consistent from the traditional players in the space that their Wall Street incentives are preventing them from investing.
也就是说，
And and by that,
真的吗？
it's Really?
它们是分红股票，拥有一批期待稳定分红的投资者。
They are dividend stocks where they have accumulated a set of investors who expect a very consistent dividend.
大规模再投资和高风险行为并不是他们向投资者推销的内容。
Heavy reinvestment, heavy risk taking is not something that they have sold the investors on.
对吧？
Right?
因此，分红的可预测性成为它们如何将自身资本用于增长投资的主要驱动因素。
And so the predictability of dividends becomes the primary driving factor of how can they deploy their own capital into investing for growth.
它们不是成长型股票。
They're not growth stocks.
对吧？
Right?
展开剩余字幕（还有 331 条）
它们每年以3%到5%的速度增长。
They're growing at three to 5% per year.
因此，这属于另一类投资者。
And so the so it is it is a different class of investor.
我认为，他们为什么没有扩大这些方面的产能，为什么没有进行投资，这个原因在我看来，值得肯定的是，回报并不明确，因为他们历史上从未从这些投资中看到过回报。
And I think the message of why haven't they increased capacity on these things, why aren't they investing, Is I think to their credit, it's, like, unclear the return is there because they historically haven't seen the return on, you know, investment from these things.
这其中有很多原因。
Like, there's a lot of reasons for that.
但与此同时，也存在一定程度的推卸责任，即我做不到。
But then there's also a degree of of shifting blame on this, which is I can't do it.
我的手被投资者绑住了。
My hands are tied by the investors.
我认为这是事实。
And I think that is true.
所以，我认为这创造了一种局面，使得人们对公开市场的短期激励产生了更多怀疑。
So, you know, I I think that has created a situation where there's a lot more skepticism of short term incentives of the public markets.
我不认为非得如此。
I don't believe it has to be that way.
对吧？
Right?
如果你是一家成长型股票，并且能证明当我投入资本时，我能获得良好的回报，我相信投资者会对此表示认可。
Like, if you are a growth stock and showing that when I invest capital, I get a good return on it, I'm pretty sure the investors are good to go with that.
对吧？
Right?
而且他们过于
And they've overly
关注了这类例子。
focused examples of that.
是的。
Yeah.
事实上，投资于增长会为你赢得很高的评价。
You get great credit for investing in growth, turns out.
好的。
Okay.
在结束之前，有两件小事。
Before we wrap, two short things.
你提到了太空。
You mentioned you mentioned space.
SpaceX是竞争对手吗？
Is SpaceX a competitor?
你怎么看待SpaceX是一家私营且非常成功的公司，同时拥有大量政府业务？
What do you make of SpaceX being actually a private and very successful company with a lot of government business?
和很多人不同，我们并不傻。
Unlike a lot of people, we're not stupid.
不要和SpaceX竞争。
Don't compete with SpaceX.
这是你能做的最愚蠢的事情。
This is, like, the stupidest thing you could do.
你为什么要这么做呢？
Like, why would you do that?
就像，这是
Like, it's
很少有人会。
very few people who are.
我只是觉得，你几乎就是在跟埃隆对赌，这简直是个历史上极其愚蠢的策略。
Just I'm like, basically You're probably gonna Like, it's just betting against Elon is like this is like a really, like, historically stupid strategy.
那你为什么要这么做呢？
So why would you do that?
所以，我们不会做SpaceX做的事情。
And so, no, we don't do the things SpaceX does.
我们不搞发射。
We're not doing launch.
我们也不做星链。
We're not making Starlink.
对吧？
Right?
我们根本没做那些事。
Like, we're not doing those things.
是的。
Yeah.
我们正在专注于更多与国防部任务相关的工作。
We're working on a lot more of the DOD specific mission sets.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这实际上是在认真思考未来：太空如何成为更多的作战领域。
So this is, you know, really thinking about the future of how does space become more of a warfighting domain.
对吧？
Right?
比如，中国人和俄罗斯人已经展示了他们的能力，而且已有多个案例报道了他们在太空中进行的对抗性行动。
Like, the Chinese, the Russians have demonstrated the ability, and this has been reported in multiple cases around adversarial things they are doing in space.
所以，那些在其他卫星周围运行、可能对其造成干扰的卫星，还有高超音速武器，也就是他们所说的轨道轰炸系统，它们能绕地球飞行，然后精准降落在特定地点。
And so the the, you know, satellites going around other satellites, potentially interfering with them, you know, hypersonics, like these orbital bombardment systems, they call them, that go around the world and then land in a specific place.
这些是非常严重威胁和重大问题。
Like, these are very serious threats and very serious issues.
国防部正在研究如何应对这些威胁，以及需要哪些能力来威慑这些行为，以表明我们有能力对它们构成威胁，从而让它们也不敢轻易挑衅我们？
The DOD is looking at how do I counter those, and then what are the capabilities I need to deter these things as well to show that I can hold them at risk so they should not mess with us either?
对吧？
Right?
因此，这些正是我们在太空中重点关注的领域类型，也就是那些非常具有防御性质的领域，我们将会专门投入并契合我们所追求的使命。
And so these are the kind of categories of areas in space that we're really focused on, the very, you know, kind of defense specific areas that, you know, we're uniquely gonna go after and really fit in the mission of what we're trying to do.
嗯。
Mhmm.
好的。
Okay.
我认为，关于太空战争和太空作战的话题，是个不错的收尾，布莱恩。
Well, I think space wars and space warfare might be a great place to end it, Brian.
别总想着看三年以后的事。
Talk about not looking three years ahead.
你知道的。
You know?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
不过，非常感谢你参与我们这次广泛的讨论，未来看到Androle的成长与发展一定会非常有趣。
But well, thank you so much for joining us for covering so much ground, and it'll be very interesting to see how Androle grows and develops in the coming years.
再次感谢。
So thanks again.
太棒了。
Awesome.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
刚才那是杰西卡和布莱恩。
That was Jessica and Brian.
好的。
Okay.
如今新闻更新得太快了，有时退一步，梳理一下正在席卷科技行业的各种趋势，反而让人感到轻松。
Well, the news comes so fast at us these days that sometimes it is nice to take a step back and take stock of all the trends that are sweeping through the technology sector.
现在人工智能领域正在发生太多事情，所以这似乎是个不错的切入点。
There is so much going on with AI right now, and so that feels like a good place to start.
现在加入我们进行这场对话的是人工智能记者斯蒂芬妮·帕拉佐洛和Semaphore的技术编辑里德·阿尔伯戈蒂。
Joining me now for that conversation is AI reporter Stephanie Palazzolo and Semaphore's technology editor, Reed Albergotti.
这是他第一次做客我们的节目。
It is his first time on the show.
欢迎你们两位。
Welcome to you both.
很高兴你们能来。
It's great to have you here.
非常感谢。
Thanks so much.
很高兴回到《信息》杂志。
Good to be back at The Information.
我正要说，你已经有一段时间没来了，但你是《信息》的前员工。
I was gonna say, it's been a while, but you are an information alum.
是的。
I am.
我想我是第10号员工。
Employee number 10, I think.
下面的人可不止十个。
Well, there's a little more than 10 people down there.
哦，没那么多了。
Oh, no more.
我听说过。
I've heard.
现在已经比那时大了不少。
It's grown a little bigger than that.
好吧，我非常高兴你们两位能来。
Well, look, I'm so excited to have you both here.
我们在这里《信息》杂志做的一项有趣举措是，开发了一个名为深度研究的新工具，这基本上是我们内部的ChatGPT。
One of the neat initiatives that we've worked on here at The Information is we've got this new tool, Deep Research, which is basically our internal chat GPT.
它已经上线，供付费订阅用户使用，用户可以用它搜索我们所有文章的档案。
It's live on our site for pro subscribers, and people can use it to search through all the archives of all of our stories.
最近，我们也在探索这个想法。
And recently, we've also been playing with the idea.
我们现在确实会使用深度研究工具发布报告。
We actually publish reports now with our deep research tool.
我们发布的一份报告是深度研究对2026年人工智能的预测。
And so one of the reports that we put out are the AI predictions that deep research has for AI in 2026.
我的意思是，这些报告中有一些不错的主题，我想听听你们两位的看法。
And I mean, look, there were some good themes that I want to get both of your temperatures on.
斯蒂芬妮，那我先从你开始吧。
And Stephanie, maybe I'll start with you.
你知道吗，这份报告提到，人工智能一定会变得更加专业化，医疗和法律领域的公司——这些公司拥有非常具体的数据集，将在未来十二个月内蓬勃发展。
You know, one of the things that the report talked about is that AI is bound to get a lot more specific and that companies in healthcare and in law, I mean, those are going to be the companies with really specific data sets that are going to really thrive in the next twelve months.
这似乎与你过去几个月的报道有些共鸣，对吧？
That seems to resonate with some of the reporting that you've done in the last couple months, right?
是的，完全同意，科什。
Yeah, totally, Kosh.
我的意思是，过去一两年的一个主要趋势是向更垂直领域的AI应用转变。
I mean, I think a big theme of the last year or so has been this move into more vertical specific AI apps.
就像你所说的，我认为这背后的一个重要原因在于竞争护城河。
And like you said, I think a big reason for this is a of one around competitive moats.
这些公司基本上认为，他们能够接触到特殊的数据集，比如医疗数据，或者律师如何修改合同的数据等等。
These companies are basically arguing that they have access to special data sets, whether that's medical data or data on how lawyers might mark up contracts, for instance.
因此，他们的论点是，他们能比其他人做得更好。
And so their argument is kind of that they can do this better than anyone else.
我认为，随着OpenAI和Anthropic等公司开始进入应用领域，并与它们所服务的初创公司展开更直接的竞争，这种论点将变得越来越重要。
And I think that's gonna be an increasingly important argument, especially as we see companies like OpenAI and Anthropic kind of move into this application world and start to compete more with the startups that they're serving.
对。
Right.
里德，你怎么看这个趋势？
Reid, what do you make of that trend?
我妻子是个律师。
Well, my wife is a lawyer.
她在楼上。
She's upstairs.
我让她试用了一些这些产品，我觉得她觉得有点帮助，但我认为这些产品还存在很大障碍。
I've turned her on to some of these to some of these products, and I think she finds them mildly helpful, but I think there's a big barrier in these.
我相信你也有不少朋友是医生。
And I've I'm sure you have a lot of friends who are doctors too.
不过，目前还没有人真正被这个颠覆。
No, nobody's really being disrupted by this yet.
我的意思是，我觉得在某些方面它能节省时间。
I mean, I think it's a it can be a time saver in some ways.
但这两个行业的问题在于，它们的容错率几乎是零，对吧？
But the problem with those two industries is that they are like zero failure rate, right?
你不能在这些领域出错。
Like you cannot fail at those.
你甚至看到了Anthropic的律师们。
And you even saw anthropics lawyers.
我肯定你，Stephanie，一直密切关注着这件事。
I'm sure you you you follow this, Stephanie, closely.
比如，Anthropic的律师们真的在法庭上出丑了，因为他们用AI来做法律简报，结果AI虚构了判例，他们还真的把这些虚假判例提交给了法院。
Like, anthropics lawyers actually, like, were embarrassed in court because they used AI to do a legal briefing and they and they hallucinated and made up case law, which they actually filed with the court.
我的意思是，我不太清楚，我不知道。
I mean and I don't see I don't know.
我很想听听你的看法，Stephanie，但我看不出这个问题——也就是让这些模型变得可预测的最后那5%或1%的难题——会在短期内得到解决。
I'd love to know your thoughts on this, Stephanie, but I don't see that problem like that, you know, there's that that sort of like last, I don't know, five or 1%, whatever it is of like getting these models to be predictable being solved like anytime soon.
Stephanie，你对此有什么看法？
Stephanie, what do you think of that?
我觉得这确实非常正确。
I think that's I mean, that's very true.
我认为这就是为什么AI在客户支持等领域被如此迅速地采纳，因为这些工作并不关乎生死。
I think that's why, you know, AI has been picked up so much faster in areas like customers customer support where, you know, what you're doing isn't exactly life or death.
但如果你在法律简报中不小心加入了虚构的案例，那确实会非常尴尬。
But yeah, if, you know, you accidentally put a made up case in a brief, that's super embarrassing.
不
Not
更不用说
to mention
如果你在医疗领域出错，这种情况可能会发生。
might happen if you have, you know, something wrong in the healthcare sector.
我的意思是，这可能会真的关乎生死。
I mean, that could actually be life or death.
所以是的，正如你所说，要达到90%或95%的准确率很容易，但最后那5%到10%才是真正起决定性作用的部分。
So yeah, I think it's easy, as you said, to get to like 90% or 95%, but that last 5% to 10% is really what makes all the difference.
嗯，里德，最有趣的一点是，这真的是一个技术上极其困难的挑战。
Well, Reid, mean, one most of interesting things is it's such a technically difficult challenge to solve.
但我觉得，深度研究工具想表达的是——我也同意——我们会看到更多初创公司在这一领域获得融资，因为风投们会直接砸钱进去，说：机会太大了。
And yet, I mean, I think what sort of the deep research tool was getting at, and that's something I agree with is, I think we're going to see more startups getting funded in that space because VCs are just gonna throw money at the problem and say, you know, let's the opportunity is huge.
我们总得想办法解决它。
We gotta solve it somehow.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得没错。
I think that's right.
我的意思是，风投们已经在这一领域投入了大量资金。
I mean, I I well, VCs are throwing they have thrown a lot of money in that space.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得法律科技初创公司可以说是其中一个最热门的领域。
I mean, I think the legal startups is like, it's one of the was one of the hot spaces.
我不知道。
I don't know.
看看这些投资会流向哪里，会很有趣。
I'd it would be interesting to see where that investment goes.
大家都在说我们正处于一个泡沫中。
There's all this talk of us being in a bubble.
我不知道。
So I don't know.
也许我们正处于这个泡沫的尾声，但我也不确定。
Maybe we could be sort of at the tail end of that, but I I'm I'm not sure.
对。
Right.
那么，斯蒂芬妮，关于可穿戴设备这一部分呢？
Well, Stephanie, what about the wearables side of this story?
我的意思是，我们这里——深度研究团队——发布了一份关于可穿戴设备中人工智能现状的报告。
I mean, you know, we published a report here, Deep Research did, about, you know, the sort of state of AI in wearables.
它指出的是，许多小型初创公司曾尝试过，其中很多都失败了，现在轮到大公司来尝试可穿戴设备领域。
And the thing that it pointed to is that a lot of the smaller startups have tried, many of them have failed, and now you have the bigger companies that are sort of taking their stab at wearables.
我的意思是，对你来说，这是否感觉会成为一个大型科技机会，即大科技公司最终会破解这个领域？
I mean, does it feel to you like this is going to end up being a big tech opportunity in the sense that, you know, the big tech companies are going to be the ones to figure it out?
还是你觉得会有初创公司在这个领域崭露头角？
Or do you think there is going to be a startup that comes into play here?
是的，尽管我非常欣赏初创公司的创新精神，以及它们作为挑战者颠覆市场的能力，但我确实觉得大型科技公司在这里拥有明显优势。
Yeah, I mean, as much as I love startup innovation and them kind of coming in as the underdog and really shaking things up, I do feel like Bid Tech has a really big, you know, like leg up here.
我认为部分原因在于渠道分布，像Meta这样的公司显然已经拥有大量用户，此外还有对供应链的掌控能力。
I think partially because of distribution, you know, companies like Meta obviously already have access to so many users, but then also things like connections to the supply chain.
我认为，即使是最有希望的初创公司，比如OpenAI，很大程度上也是因为它们聘请了大量前苹果员工，这一点我们最近在一篇报道中提到过。
I think even like the startup that maybe has the best chance, OpenAI, a lot of that is because they've hired so many ex Apple people, as we wrote about in a story recently.
而这些人才拥有与合适供应商的紧密联系。
And these are the people that have the connections to like the right suppliers.
他们了解全球供应链的复杂细节。
They understand the like intricacies of the global supply chain.
他们把在苹果积累的大量经验也带了过来。
And they bring a lot of that knowledge that they had from Apple with them.
所以我认为，这些大型科技公司在可穿戴设备领域拥有诸多优势。
And so I do think there's, you know, a lot of advantages that these big tech companies have when it comes to making wearables.
没错。
Right.
里德，你怎么看？
Reid, what do you think?
你对Meta上周或前两周的发布会有什么看法？
What did you make of Meta's event last week or two weeks ago?
我当时
I was
在现场，尽管演示中出现了不少问题，但我认为这是一款非常有趣的产品。
there and, despite all the hiccups in the demo, I think it's a really interesting product.
我认为Meta做得最出色的部分其实是手环。
I think it's still well, actually, I thought the best part of what Meta did was the wristband.
这就像一种新的用户输入方式，我觉得如果他们开放这一点，开发者可能会想出一些非常有创意的使用方法。
It's like this new user input that I think you know, if they sort of open that up, I could see developers coming up with like really creative ways to use that.
对。
Right.
但我记得读过你关于这个的深度研究报告，我觉得它一针见血地指出，控制移动生态系统的两家公司——苹果和谷歌——对此掌控得非常紧，他们不会允许别人进来创新。
But I thought I read your deep research report on this and I thought that it was actually it kinda hit the nail on the head when it said that these the two, you know, the two companies, Apple, Google, that really control the mobile ecosystem have a tight grip here and they're not gonna let people come in and innovate.
所以我不认为AI硬件会有人推出一款颠覆性的AI设备。
So I don't think of AI hardware as like someone's gonna come up with the killer device in AI.
我反而觉得，AI必须取代移动设备。
I actually think of it as like AI has to kill mobile.
我们目前仍然处于移动时代，我的意思是，我们花2000美元买一部手机，而它的功能和十年前、十五年前几乎一模一样，我觉得这简直太荒谬了。
Like we still have like mobile the mobile world, we I mean, the fact that we spend $2,000 on this phone that does basically the same thing it did, you know, or serves the same purpose it did ten or fifteen years ago, I think is just crazy.
对。
Right.
这真的是因为这些封闭生态系统的强大控制力。
And it's it's really because of power of these walled gardens.
所以当AI突破这一点时，我认为我们不会只得到一种设备。
And so as when AI breaks through that, I don't think we get one device.
我认为我们会有很多选择。
I think we get a choice.
比如，你可能拥有一台随身电脑。
Like, maybe you have a pocket computer.
你可能在台式机上工作。
Maybe you're working on your desktop.
也可能是你的眼镜或耳塞，但你知道，硬件本身其实没那么重要。
Maybe it's your glasses or an earpiece, but it's, you know, the hardware is is kinda just isn't as important.
更重要的是AI能为你做什么。
It's more about, like, what the AI is doing for you.
雷德，在你离开之前，我想快速再问你一个问题。
Reid, I wanna stick with you very quickly before we let you go.
你知道，我一直在关注的一个方面，也是Semaphore做得特别出色的地方，就是技术的全球视角。
You you know, one of the things that I've been intro that I think Semaphore has done a great job of covering is sort of the global perspective on technology.
我会想到加密货币和区块链这样的技术，根据你身处世界的不同地方，人们对加密货币和区块链的看法差异很大。
And I think about technologies like crypto and blockchain, and depending on where you are in the world, they have very different perspectives on cryptocurrencies and blockchain.
人工智能是新的创新。
AI is the new innovation.
我想知道，你是否看到来自世界不同地区的人对人工智能有不同的看法？
And I wondered, are you seeing different perspectives depending on what part of the world you're coming from on AI?
还是说现在基本上是一致的？
Or is it pretty uniform right now?
说来有趣，实际上。
You know, it's funny, actually.
我觉得其实差不多。
I I I think it's actually pretty similar.
不过你知道，现在世界已经高度全球化了。
Although, you know, people in, you know, the world is it's so global now.
像硅谷的人，现在遍布全球各地。
Like, people in Silicon Valley are all over the world now.
比如，我去参加了巴黎AI峰会，结果一路上不断遇到住在我家附近的人。
Like, I I went to the Paris Rays AI Summit, you know, and I was like just running into people who live down the street from me left and right.
所以，情况就是这样。
So so there's that.
但我还去过阿布扎比和利雅得，参加了那里的科技会议。
But, you know, I've also I visited, you know, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh and gone to tech conferences there.
我觉得特别有趣的是，大家对AI的热情都很相似。
And I think it's really interesting like how what's similar is the excitement around AI.
我觉得，如果你去海湾地区，他们会直接说：我们要建设它，对吧？
I think, you know, if you go to The Gulf, they're really they just they're like, we want to build it, right?
我们要建造这些庞大的数据中心。
We want to build these massive data centers.
在欧洲，我觉得你们有非常多的人才，尤其是在巴黎。
In Europe, I think they're you know, you have such talented people, you know, especially in in Paris.
对吧？
Right?
欧洲有这么多非常聪明、充满干劲的AI工程师，他们想创办初创公司，但却因为重重障碍而无法实现。
You have all these these really smart AI engineers who are so driven and wanna build these startups, but they can't because there are just so many roadblocks in Europe for for them.
所以，你知道，这挺有意思的。
So I you know, it's it's funny.
我认为，至少这些创业者对这项技术极其兴奋。
I I think it's this tech people are well, at least the entrepreneurs are extremely excited about this technology.
嗯。
Mhmm.
嗯。
Mhmm.
欧洲的消费者可能相对更消极一些。
Probably consumers are in Europe might be a little more negative.
不过，我也听到很多美国人对AI持负面看法，来自美国普通民众的批评也不少。
Although Americans are pretty I I hear a lot of negativity about AI from just, like, general the general population in The US as well.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，我的意思是，关于‘slop’的讨论确实是真实存在的。
I well, I mean, the discussion about slop is is certainly a real one.
雷德，我们马上结束前，简短问一下，TikTok是另一个你一直密切关注的全球性话题。
Very quickly, Reed, before we let you go, TikTok is the other global story that, you know, you've been covering very closely.
你接下来会关注哪些问题，来看这件事将如何发展？
What questions are you watching for going forward to see how they shake out?
我的意思是，关于利润如何在新实体之间分配，目前还有很多不确定因素。
I mean, there's still a lot of things in flux about, you know, which how the profits actually get allocated, you know, between the new entities.
但你在这则新闻中关注的是什么？
But what are you watching for in this story?
是的。
Yeah.
说来有趣。
You know, it's funny.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，作为一家媒体，我们一直密切关注此事。
Mean, as a publication, we we have been covering it closely.
从我的角度来看，我只是好奇这会对TikTok在美国的用户体验产生怎样的影响，如果有的话；因为一旦它以这种方式被切断，他们是否还能继续保持人们对内容的沉迷？
And, you know, for from my perspective, I'm just sort of curious how this is gonna affect the consumer experience, if at all, for TikTok in in The US because once it becomes sort of disconnected in that way, does it you know, do they do they are they do they retain that ability to just keep people addicted to the content?
我认为这正是我个人感到好奇的地方。
I think that's my personally, curiosity there.
对。
Right.
很好。
Great.
谢谢斯蒂芬妮和里德做客我们的节目。
Well, Stephanie and Reid, thank you so much coming for on the show.
很高兴邀请你们来。
It is a pleasure to have you on.
正如大家所知，这位是塞缪尔的技术编辑里德·阿尔比加蒂，这位是《信息》杂志的AI记者斯蒂芬妮·佩拉西略。
As always, that is Reid Albigatti, the technology editor at Semaphore, and Stephanie Pelasillo, our AI reporter here at The Information.
所以
So
哦，好吧。
Oh, okay.
雷德·乔布斯是史蒂夫·乔布斯的儿子，他一生中大部分时间都保持低调，但他一直在生物科技领域悄然崭露头角，尤其是一家名为优胜美地的风险投资公司，该公司专注于投资癌症初创企业。
Well, Reed Jobs, the son of Steve Jobs, hasn't been a very public figure throughout much of his life, but he has quietly been making a name for himself, especially in the biotech sector where he runs a venture firm called Yosemite that invests in cancer startups.
该公司管理的资产接近10亿美元。
The firm has nearly $1,000,000,000 in assets under management.
今天，我的同事杰米玛·麦克埃沃伊在我们的《周末杂志》上发表了一篇关于雷德的罕见专访。
And today, my colleague, Jemima McEvoy, is publishing a rare profile of Reed in our Weekend Magazine.
这是本周的重磅阅读，内容非常出色。
It is our big read for the week, and it really is a wonderful one.
我们会在节目笔记中提供链接。
We will link it in the show notes.
我想请杰米玛来和我们聊聊她的报道。
I want to bring on Jemima to tell us more about her reporting.
杰米玛，欢迎来到节目。
Jemima, welcome to the show.
很高兴你来。
It's great to have you.
嗨，阿卡什。
Hi, Akash.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
这是你的。
Yours.
这是你第一次上TITV。
It is your first time on TITV.
这怎么可能？
How is that possible?
我的意思是，你才加入几个月，但这只是你众多亮相的开始，我非常期待。
I mean, you you only joined a couple months ago, but it is the first of many appearances I'm looking forward to.
你今天在Reed Jobs上有一个很棒的个人简介。
You had this great profile today on Reed Jobs.
也许我们可以从这里开始，跟我们讲讲Yosemite——Reed新创办的风投基金。
And I think a great place to start maybe is tell us about Yosemite, the new ish venture fund that Reed has started.
不是Reed Albergott，是另一个Reed。
The other Reed, not Reed Albergott.
我们现在说的是Reed Jobs。
We're talking about Reed Jobs now.
是的。
Yes.
我知道。
I know.
今天连续出现两个Reed，真有意思。
Interesting to have two Reed's in a row on today.
不过，是的。
But, yeah.
所以Yosemite是Reed Jobs在2023年创立的。
So Yosemite was launched by Reed Jobs back in 2023.
在此之前，他曾任职于Emerson Collective，那是他母亲的风投和慈善机构。
Previously, was at Emerson Collective, which is his mom's VC and philanthropy firm.
但Yosemite是他独立创业、追求自主的举措。
But Yosepite was his, you know, branching out on his own move for independence.
正如你所说，他们专门投资于癌症领域的初创公司，涵盖从改善患者体验的虚拟诊所，到对抗某些类型癌症的潜在药物等各个方面。
And as you said, they specifically focus on investing in cancer startups that involves, you know, everything from companies that are trying to help the patient experience, like a virtual clinic to, you know, potential drugs that combat certain types of cancers.
所以是的，他们管理的资产规模约为10亿美元，已投资数十家公司，在癌症领域已颇具规模。
So yeah, they have around 1,000,000,000 in assets under management, have invested in dozens of companies and have become quite big in the cancer space.
那么他之前任职的Emerson Collective，这家由他母亲Laureen Powell Jobs创立的机构，是这样吗？
And so Emerson Collective, the firm that he was previously at, this is the firm that was started by his mom, Laureen Powell Jobs, is that right?
没错。
Right.
所以Laureen Powell Jobs在Steve Jobs2011年去世后，继承了他所有的财富。
So Laureen Powell Jobs inherited, you know, obviously all of the wealth from Steve Jobs once he died in 2011.
她曾公开表示，不希望将这些财富传给她的孩子们。
And she has, you know, said publicly that she doesn't want to pass that on to her children.
她不希望只是让财富代代相传。
She doesn't want to, you know, just like have these generations of wealth.
因此，她创立了埃莫森集体，将慈善与投资结合起来。
So she has started Emerson Collective, and they do kind of a mix of philanthropy and then investing.
她的财富主要投入到了这个机构中。
And that's kind of where she's put her fortune into.
里德·乔布斯在那里待了相当长一段时间，并且积极参与了埃莫森集体的资助项目。
Reed Jobs was there for quite a while, and he was sort of actively involved, I think, in the grants program that they have at Emerson Collective.
他为什么决定离开埃莫森集体，独自创业？
Why did he decide to leave Emerson Collective and go it on his own?
而且，他明确地创办了一家风险投资基金，不再深度参与慈善事业。
Also, you know, mean, he's explicitly, he started a venture fund, you know, it's not really as involved in the philanthropy side.
他为什么决定做出这样的转变？
Why did he decide to make that shift?
是的，这是个好问题。
Yeah, that's a good question.
所以，他2015年从斯坦福毕业后加入了Emerson Collective，而当时Emerson已经在气候变迁和教育领域开展投资。
So essentially, he joined Emerson Collective back in 2015 after graduating Stanford and Emerson already had a presence investing in climate change and education.
他们专门为Reed设立了健康团队，让他负责运营和投资。
And they basically set up the health team for Reed to run and invest.
所以他当时同时兼顾了慈善和投资。
So he did a mix of philanthropy and investing.
那时他确实在支持一些公司，但更多的是慈善项目。
So he was backing some companies back then, but it was a lot of philanthropy.
根据我接触过的一些了解Reed及其想法的人所说，他的动机是双重的。
And according to, you know, people who I spoke with who know Reed and are familiar with this thinking, was kind of twofold.
一方面，你不想永远待在妈妈的公司里。
Like one was, you know, you don't want to be at mom's company forever.
你希望拥有自己的独立性。
You want to have your independence.
所以这是他选择独立发展的一个原因。
So that was one reason why he branched out.
第二个原因是，从投资角度来看，他当时能做的事情有一定限制。
And the second was that, you know, there was kind of a limit on what he was able to do from an investing standpoint.
就他能开出的支票规模而言，他希望更有雄心，进行更大胆的投资。
In terms of like the size of the checks he could write, he wanted to be a bit more ambitious, you know, making larger bets.
因此，这也是他选择独立发展的一个原因。
So that's one of the reasons why he also branched out.
但确实，这在一定程度上牺牲了一些慈善事业。
But yeah, it's kind of a little at the sacrifice of some of the philanthropy.
因为显然，现在他有了需要向其交代的有限合伙人。
Because obviously now he has LPs that he has to answer to.
对。
Right.
但我的意思是，你之前讲过一个关于他竞争心很强的有趣故事。
But I mean, you had this great anecdote in your soil, you know, someone talking about how competitive he is.
这种竞争精神很可能非常适合风险投资。
And so that competitive spirit probably lends itself well to venture investing.
当然，我们应该提到，史蒂夫·乔布斯的诊断是一种罕见的胰腺癌，我认为这可能是他如此关注这一事业的重要原因之一。
And of course, we should say Steve Jobs' diagnosis was a rare form of pancreatic cancer, which I think probably is one of the big reasons that he's so drawn to this particular cause.
我想和你聊聊这方面在生物技术领域的应用，因为我们在节目中很少讨论生物技术。
I do want to talk to you about the biotech angle to this, because we we don't talk too much about biotech on this show.
因此，每当我们的记者去采访生物技术领域的风险投资人时，对我们来说都是一个绝佳的机会。
And so anytime any of our reporters goes out and talks to biotech venture capitalists, it's a great opportunity for us.
这个领域目前的状况如何？
What is the current state of that sector?
我的意思是，生物技术太难了。
I mean, biotech is so hard.
我的意思是，这些项目周期非常长，有些甚至需要几十年才能取得成果。
I mean, are long, long projects that take decades in some cases to come to fruition.
关于生物技术，我们需要了解些什么？
What do we need to know about biotech?
是的，这是一个非常周期性的行业。
Yeah, it's a very cyclical industry.
所以，他们经历了许多起起落落。
So, I mean, they've had a lot of ups and downs.
我认为它一直不是能带来丰厚回报的最热门领域。
Think it hasn't been one of the hottest sectors in terms of generating great returns.
你看到，一些人工智能公司仅仅在几个月内就将估值翻了一番。
You've seen, you know, some of these AI companies are just like doubling their valuations over the course of just a few months.
但在生物技术领域，这种情况并不一定发生。
And that's not necessarily happening in biotech.
不过我要说，人们对人工智能充满热情。
Although I will say that there is a lot of excitement about AI.
比如，里德投资了一家由人工智能驱动的药物发现公司，他们希望人工智能能够模拟蛋白质的结构，从而帮助研究人员更快地发现疾病。
And you know, for example, like Reed is an investor in one of these AI powered drug discovery companies where they're hoping that AI can like plot out what proteins look like and then help speed up how quick it is for researchers to find diseases.
因此，人们确实对生物技术领域抱有一些期待，但这个行业的时间周期普遍更长。
So there is some, you know, anticipation that this could be a really good time in biotech, but it's just a longer, you know, longer timelines in the industry.
那个初创公司是Chai Discovery吗？
And that startup was Chai Discovery, is that the name of that startup?
是的，我相信你已经
Yeah, I believe you've
听说过它了。
had it.
我们请过Josh来做节目。
We had Josh on the show.
没错。
That's right.
是的。
Yeah.
我们还得在节目笔记里附上那段视频。
We'll have to link that clip as well in the show notes.
在让你走之前，我想快速聊聊Reed对政治的兴趣。
Very quickly before we let you go, I do want to talk about Reed's interest in politics.
他为什么对政治感兴趣？我的意思是，他有没有表示过想竞选某个职位？
Why is he interested in I mean, has he indicated he wants to run for any kind of office at some point?
是的。
Yeah.
在我做报道的过程中，这件事曾被提及：里德当时正在思考自己人生的方向。
So that is something that came up during my reporting is Reed was deciding what he wanted to do with his life.
他考虑过几种不同的选择，包括成为一名医生。
And he considered a few different things, including becoming a doctor.
其中之一就是几年前竞选国会议员。
And one of them was running for Congress a few years ago.
你知道，他似乎对加州南希·佩洛西的席位很感兴趣。
You know, he was apparently interested in Nancy Pelosi's seat in California.
但他最终没有这么做。
But he ended up not doing that.
与此同时，他仍然在华盛顿保持着一点影响力。
At the same time, he does still kind of have like a little bit of a presence in Washington.
你知道吗，我们写过关于他曾在一场医疗研究集会上发表演讲的事，当时人们正在呼吁增加国家卫生研究院的预算，而该机构在特朗普政府时期一直面临一些打压。
You know, we write about how he was a speaker at this rally for medical research where they're advocating for increases to the budget at the National Institutes of Health, which has been facing some attacks under the Trump administration.
所以，我个人以及他身边的人都不会对他未来某天重新涉足政坛感到惊讶。
So I mean, I personally and people around him wouldn't be surprised if that he does end up, you know, kind of revisiting politics at some point in the future.
但至少目前，他似乎很满足于专注于风险投资领域。
But at least for now, he seems pretty happy focusing on the VC world.
最后一个问题。
And last question for you.
你采访了雷德圈子里的那么多人。
You spoke to so many people in Reed's orbit.
你主动要求进行一次采访。
You asked for an interview.
我猜，你没能成功采访到雷德本人。
I presume with Reed, you weren't able to get it.
我们总是会问，人们可以根据自己的意愿选择是否参与。
We always ask, people can participate if they want.
但如果你能采访雷，你最想问他哪些问题？
But if you had an interview with Rey, what would be some of the top questions you would want to ask him?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我当然希望他能为这个故事接受采访，但是——
I mean, obviously, I wish he would have spoken for
的
the
故事，但——
story, but-
也许我们可以把这篇文章发给他。
Maybe we could send this to him.
我们说，你看，我们写了这个故事。
We said, Look, you know, wrote this story.
我们仍然想听听你的声音。
We still want to hear from you.
这是我们要问你的问题，里德。
And here are the questions we're going to ask you, Reed.
这就是这些问题。
Here they are.
也许他会在评论里回复。
Maybe he'll respond in the comments even.
不过，我提到的一点是，在我的采访中，有人提到他特别看好一家他投资的公司。
No, but I mean, one thing that came up is during my interviews, someone mentioned that there's one company that he's particularly excited about that he's invested in.
我真的很想知道是哪家公司。
I really want to know what that is.
他们在做什么？
What are they doing?
你知道吗，这会不会是个改变游戏规则的突破？
Like, you know, could that be a game changer?
第二点是，关于在优胜美地减少慈善活动的这种矛盾。
A second thing is, you know, kind of that tension between doing less philanthropy at Yosemite.
你知道，他会不会觉得遗憾？
You know, does he is that something he misses?
你知道，他是怎么做出决定，把这件事的优先级降低的？
You know, how did he make that decision to kind of make that less of a priority?
第三点是，他现在想专注于的，就是他余生想投入的方向吗？
And then third is just like, what is he is this the what he wants to focus on for the rest of his career?
他是否还看到其他多个阶段？
Does he see multiple other chapters?
你知道，接下来会发生什么？
You know, what's going to happen next?
我觉得另一个问题是他如何看待自己的遗产和职业生涯。
Guess kind of how he thinks about his legacy and career would be another question I have.
很好。
Great.
吉米娜，非常感谢你来参加这个节目。
Well, Jemima, thank you so much for coming on the show.
这是一篇很棒的专访，我们期待您未来更多次做客我们的节目。
It was a great profile, and we look forward to having you on more and more.
这是杰米玛·麦克埃沃伊，我们《The Information》的周末记者。
That is Jemima McEvoy, our weekend reporter here at The Information.
谢谢。
Thank you.
好的。
Okay.
那今天节目就到这里了。
Well, that does it for today's show.
提醒一下，我们每周一至周五上午10点（太平洋时间），下午1点（东部时间）直播。
A reminder that we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.
我要感谢亚马逊网络服务（AWS），作为本节目的冠名赞助商，也感谢您的收看。
I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I want to thank you for tuning in.
我们非常感谢您的支持。
We really do appreciate your viewership.
我已经迫不及待期待周一的下一期节目了。
I am already excited for our next show on Monday.
在那之前，祝你周末愉快。
And so until then, have a great weekend.
暂时再见了。
Bye bye for now.
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