Anthropic Takes xAI Colossus Compute, Shivon Zillis in OpenAI Trial, Kalshi’s $22B Valuation

欢迎各位收看《信息》频道的TITV节目。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.

我是阿卡什·帕什里卡。

My name is Akash Pasricha.

今天是5月7日，星期四。

It is Thursday, May 7.

今天节目中，我们将深入解读xAI与Anthropic达成的最新合作。

Today on the show, we are unpacking the latest news about xAI's deal with Anthropic.

我们还将带来关于埃隆·马斯克对OpenAI诉讼案的最新报道，我们的记者这周一直守在法院。

We've then got the latest from the Elon Musk OpenAI trial from our reporter who has been at the courthouse all week.

最后，我们会聊聊Kalshi今天公布的巨额融资消息，以及我的同事们独家发布的关于Polymarket的深度报道。

And we'll end with a discussion about Kalshi's big funding announcement today and some exclusive reporting that my colleagues published about Polymarket.

今天这期节目内容很精彩，咱们马上开始。

It's going to be a fun show, so let's get right on into it.

Anthropic与xAI达成了协议，而这家公司现在更愿意被称为SpaceXAI。

Anthropic signed a deal with xAI, or as the company likes to be better known now right now, SpaceXAI.

根据协议，Anthropic 将使用 xAI 首个 Colossus 数据中心的全部算力来支持自己的业务。

The agreement is that Anthropic will utilize all the capacity at xAI's first Colossus data center for its own operations.

现在邀请到的是 DataBank 公司的首席执行官拉乌尔·马蒂内克，他来为我们解读这条新闻。

Joining me now to break down the news is Raul Martynek, the CEO of data center management company DataBank.

拉乌尔，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Raul, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you here.

嘿，谢谢你的邀请，阿卡什。

Hey, thanks Akash.

谢谢你请我来。

Thanks for having me.

对于 Anthropic 和现在叫 SpaceXAI 的这家公司达成的这项合作，你第一反应是什么？

So what was your reaction to this news between Anthropic and SpaceX AI, it is now called?

是的。

Yeah.

说实话，凡是以马斯克为中心的事，都挺引人注目的。

Well, look, anything obviously in Elon's world is interesting.

所以你看，xAI显然是个前沿模型公司。

So look, xAI obviously, frontier model company.

它几年前才成立的。

It was started a couple of years ago.

他们在孟菲斯迅速建起了一个规模庞大的数据中心集群。

They built out this colossal data center footprint in Memphis at a really rapid pace.

但据多方报道，xAI的Grok聊天机器人和大模型表现并不理想。

But by all accounts, and it's been reported, the xAI, the Grok chat box and LLM isn't doing too well.

用户使用量明显下滑。

Use is significantly down.

听说十个创始人都走光了，马斯克自己也承认，这项目确实需要重新来过。

I think all 10 of the founders left the company, you know, Musk admitted that, you know, it kind of needs a reboot.

我一看到这些，再想想Anthropic那边，那可是火得不得了啊。

When I kind of see that and then kind of see what's happening with Anthropic where, I mean, the company's on fire, right?

他们的云代码在企业市场里现在很受欢迎。

I mean, their cloud code is getting a lot of traction in the enterprise space.

这确实是个很实用的工具。

It's a really useful tool.

我听说首席执行官说过，一年内使用量增长了八十倍。

I think the CEO said that usage has gone up 80x in one year.

所以我觉得，xAI 把这部分基础设施的成本转嫁给 Anthropic，是个挺聪明的做法——毕竟 Anthropic 急需算力来服务客户，这也说明 Anthropic 现在算力严重不足。

So I think it's probably an opportunistic way for xAI to kind of offload the cost of this infrastructure to Anthropic who desperately needs it to support their customers and probably shows that, again, Anthropic is compute constrained and needs capacity.

而 xAI 由于自己的大模型进展不太顺利，反而有多余的算力可以腾出来。

And xAI has excess compute given the not so successful progress of its LON.

对。

Right.

所以我现在最想弄明白的是，我们还看到了 xAI 和另一个快速崛起的编程公司 Kursor 之间的合作。

So the big question that I'm trying to figure out here is we also saw the deal between xAI and then Kursor, the other fast growing coding company.

我觉得这个合作的背后，是 Kursor 需要自己的算力来满足客户的需求。

And look, my read on that deal was Kursor needs its own compute capacity to service its own customers.

我的意思是，我以为Kursor的算力需求会由Colossus和xAI的数据中心来满足。

I mean, I kind of thought that the Kerser compute needs would come from Colossus and the xAI data centers.

现在却听说，第一个Colossus设施将全部提供给Anthropic使用。

Now we're hearing that the first Colossus facility is entirely going to be used by Anthropic.

那Kursor该怎么办呢？

So I don't know where that leaves Kursor.

你听说什么消息了吗？

Have you heard anything?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，Kursor去年可是AI应用的标杆企业。

I mean, look, Kursor obviously was the poster child for kind of AI adoption last year.

Anthropic似乎正在接管这种编码能力。

Again, Anthropic seems to be taking over that kind of coding capability.

我听说Cursor现在正在四处筹钱。

My understanding is Cursor's out there trying to raise money right now.

他们现在很难筹到钱。

They're struggling to do that.

其中一个原因是，据说他们的毛利是负的，我觉得这个情况现在正慢慢浮出水面，对吧？

One of the reasons is they had reportedly negative gross margins, which I think is kind of, that's another story that I think is now really starting to come to the surface, right?

这些AI公司提供的工具大多是按座位收费的标准化产品，但用户一用起来，因为是智能代理，就会生成海量的令牌。

Which is these AI companies, they have these kind of flat rated tools that per seat tools that people can use, but when they use them and because they're agentic, they generate so many tokens.

当你想到生成这么多令牌时，其实应该意识到，这意味着大量的计算资源消耗。

And when you think about generating a lot of tokens, what you should think is, Hey, that's lot of compute cycles.

这意味着大量的GPU使用。

That's a lot of GPUs.

这意味着大量的电力消耗。

That's a lot of power.

这意味着高昂的成本。

That's a lot of cost.

所以我很好奇，他们的盈利模式到底是什么？

So I'm curious to understand what is the profitability model here, right?

因为如果Cursor像野草一样疯长，却还是负毛利，光靠销量是补不回来的。

Because if Cursor's growing like a weed, but it's got negative gross margins, you can't make that up in volume.

没错。

Right.

我也有个疑问，如果他们不是从xAI获取算力，那会从哪儿来呢？

And the question that I have too is where are they going to get their compute from if it's not going to be from xAI?

我想听听你怎么看这个问题。

And I wonder how you might think about that question.

是的。

Yeah.

换个角度说，正如你提到的，我们是一家数据中心开发商，主要为市场提供数据中心容量，支持从超大规模云厂商到大型企业的各种部署需求。

Well, taking a step back, just broadly speaking, and as you pointed out, we're a data center developer, so we're bringing kind of data center capacity to market that supports a lot of these deployments from hyperscalers to large enterprise.

第一季度我们刚做完给董事会的汇报材料，下周就要呈报了。

Q1, we're just finishing up our deck to report to our board next week.

第一季度的表现非常出色。

It was a really successful Q1.

如果你看看超大规模厂商的财报，它们的增长全都明显向上，而且还在加速。

If you look at hyperscale earnings, they were all kind of strongly up to the right, accelerated growth there.

它们全都提高了资本支出的预算。

They've all kind of increased our CapEx amounts.

所以现在整个行业仍在加速，即使去年已经有过一波大规模的公告。

So right now the sector is accelerating, even after kind of some of the huge announcements last year.

当然，中间也有一些波动，比如OpenAI稍微收缩了，但总体来看，我觉得对算力的需求依然非常旺盛。

Again, you got some cross currents, obviously OpenAI is pulling back a little bit, but broadly speaking, I would say, you know, there's just a lot of demand for kind of compute capacity.

而这些超大规模厂商正在大量吸纳这些算力。

And the hyperscalers are sucking up a lot of that.

像Anthropic这样的前沿模型公司，也在大量消耗算力。

The frontier model companies like Anthropic are sucking up a lot of that.

但你要记住，当需求在每个季度都快速增长时，供应是很难跟上的。

But remember, when demand increases kind of on a quarterly basis, you can't really match supply to it, right?

因为数据中心的建设，还有GPU的部署和安装，这些都需要以季度、年，甚至好几年为单位来衡量。

That's because data center and then GPU and installing those in a data center, those things are measured in quarters, years, multiple years.

所以这个供应链的弹性要低得多，

So that's a much more inelastic supply chain than

人手方面。

people.

让我插一句。

Let me jump in here.

那关于轨道数据中心的说法呢？

What about the language around orbital data centers?

这次新发布的消息里，这部分挺引人注意的。

This was an intriguing part of the fresh release here.

说得简直模糊到了极点。

Think it was about as vague as it could get.

好像只提到Anthropic对轨道数据中心项目整体上表现出了一些兴趣。

Think all it said was that Anthropic has, I think, expressed interest in the orbital data center project broadly.

但并没有任何具体承诺。

There were no commitments.

你怎么看这个？

What is your read on that?

是的。

Yeah.

说实话，我觉得整个太空数据中心的说法，不过是围绕SpaceX的一些传言罢了。

Look, I think that whole orbital space center stuff is a bit of the things that are going around SpaceX.

咱们先停一下，想想看，SpaceX本来是个火箭公司，现在却搞起了大型模型业务，还收购了Twitter（X），这些业务真的有协同效应吗？

Let's pause for a second and realize that SpaceX, which is a rocket company, now basically has an LON business, a Frontier Model company within it, and it has Twitter, X, right?

这些业务之间根本谈不上什么协同。

I mean, aren't really kind of synergistic assets.

他们当然在宣传这是协同效应。

Obviously they're spinning it as a synergy story.

至于数据中心和太空的结合，这又是一个例子——一旦你仔细拆解，就会发现要实现它，得克服多少技术难题，跟地面数据中心比起来，差距太大了。在我看来，至少还得十年以上才可能实现，甚至可能永远都不现实。

I mean, the whole data centers and space story, that's another one where when you actually unpack it and think about the technical challenges that need to be surpassed for that to be a viable solution compared to terrestrial data centers, by all accounts, my opinion as well, mean, we're way off into the future, at least ten years or more until that becomes viable, if at all, right?

因为你得先把运送东西上太空的成本降到量子级别的水平。

Because you're going to need to have kind of quantum reductions in the cost to move stuff into space.

要在太空中实现GPU集群所需的数据传输速度，光学技术必须有重大突破。

You're going to have to have significant advances in optics to be able to move the data at the speeds that these GPU clusters need in space.

还得解决散热问题，因为在太空中热量无法有效散发。

And you're going to have to solve the thermal problem, which in space heat doesn't radiate.

你得把热量分散到更大的表面积上。

You need to kind of move it over a large surface.

在这一切成为现实之前，还有很多难题要解决。

So there's just a lot of things that need to be solved before that becomes real.

所以目前来看，这更多只是一种愿景。

So I think it's more aspirational at this point.

没错。

Right.

在节目开始前，我们聊过，今天晚上Core Weave要发布财报。

Were talking before the show, before we started taping, we've got Core Weave earnings tonight.

你想想Core Weave，进入财报季时，你会关注哪些问题？有哪些关键点值得留意？

I wonder, just as you think about Core Weave, what are the types of questions you have going into those earnings and what should we be watching for?

是的，我觉得大家最关注的显然是他们的增长态势。

Yeah, look, what I think people are going be watching for is obviously their growth profile.

这种增长是在加速吗？

Is that growth accelerating?

还是已经趋于平稳了？

Is it kind of plateauing?

还有就是他们的资本投入强度，对吧？

And then also their capital intensity, right?

我的意思是，Core Weave 的商业模式本身是很稳健的。

I mean, the CoreWeek business model, it's a solid business model.

云服务也是同样的道理，对吧？

I mean, cloud is the same thing, right?

你先投入基础设施，然后长期出租出去。

You deploy infrastructure, you lease it out over time.

现在我们又多了专门针对 GPU 的新型基础设施。

Obviously we now have this new just specialized infrastructure around GPUs.

所以人们一直对这类基础设施的长期寿命有疑问。

So there continue to be questions about the long term life of that infrastructure.

不过最近的业绩表明，这个商业模式是可持续的。

Again, the recent results are pointing to a sustainable business model.

但我认为这些方面还会继续被关注，我预计他们这个季度会表现得非常强劲。

But I think all those things will continue to be looked at, but I expect them to have a really strong quarter.

再回到刚才的话题，Raul，xAI和Anthropic这笔交易达成后，很多人确实都在问这个问题，甚至还有TechCrunch的文章直接问：xAI是不是成了新的云服务商？

And just to bring it full circle here, Raul, I mean, after this xAI Anthropic deal was signed, mean, were a lot of people out there asking the question, including there was a TechCrunch article headlined, Is xAI a neo cloud now?

我是说，他们现在做的到底是个什么样的生意？

I mean, that the business that they're in?

我觉得这可能不是埃隆希望看到的，但从实际运作来看，他们现在确实是在走这条路，对吧？

Do you see that being I don't think this is what Elon is hoping for, but I mean, functionally speaking, that is kind of a business model that they're now in, right?

是的。

Yeah.

没错，这确实是事实，这也说明，他们主要是因为之前建了一个超大规模的集群，投入了数百亿美元。

No, that's a true statement, which again, I think shows that this is probably more about just they had this huge cluster, they spent tens and tens of billions of dollars on it.

你知道，他们自己旗下的产品根本没怎么用上这些资源，也没能从中赚钱。

You know, they weren't getting usage out of it through their own products or monetization.

在上市之前，大家都会盯着财务报表，我们该怎么把这笔资产变现呢？

How do we monetize it ahead of an IPO where people are going to be looking at the bottom line?

我觉得这更像是一次抓住机会的举动，而不是什么长远的宏大战略。

So I think it's more probably an opportunistic scenario than some long term kind of grand strategy.

没错。

Right.

拉尔，非常感谢你今天来做客。

Well, Raul, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是DataBank的首席执行官拉尔·马蒂内克，欢迎收看TITV。

That is Raul Martynek, the CEO of DataBank here on TITV.

德鲁这边全程跟进埃隆·马斯克与OpenAI的庭审，每天都有最新报道。

The information's rocked to Drew is covering the Elon Musk OpenAI trial from the courtroom all week long.

这是他给我们带来的最新进展。

Here is his latest update for us.

希冯·齐利斯在埃隆·马斯克对OpenAI的诉讼中出庭作证。

Shivon Zilis took the stand in Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI.

齐利斯在OpenAI的历史上是个很特别的人物，因为她扮演过很多不同角色。

Zilis is a fascinating character in the history of OpenAI because she's played many different roles.

她曾经是顾问。

She's been an adviser.

她也担任过董事会成员。

She's been a board member.

她还曾是马斯克多家公司的员工，并且是马斯克四个孩子的母亲。

She's also been an employee of multiple of Elon Musk's companies, and she's the mother of four of Musk's children.

因此，她的证词在诉讼进程中会起到什么作用，一直是个疑问。

So there was an open question of how her testimony is going to fit into the lawsuit as it's unfolding.

事实上，双方都试图拉拢她，把她的证词当作解释自己立场的切入点。

And in fact, both sides kind of tried to claim her for their own and use her testimony as a lens to explain their broader case.

在马斯克一方，他们想借她的证词说明，即使身为董事会成员，她对董事会完全不知情ChatGPT的发布感到不安，也对马斯克在Helion Energy的个人投资感到不适——而Helion Energy正是OpenAI曾有过业务往来的初创公司。

On Musk's side, they sought to use her testimony to show that even as a board member, she was uncomfortable that the board didn't have any information about the launch of ChatGPT, and that she was uncomfortable with Musk's personal stake in Helion Energy, which is a startup that OpenAI has done business deals with.

在OpenAI一方看来，他们想表明，当时在讨论OpenAI未来发展方向和组织结构时，设立营利性子公司是选项之一，但彻底转为营利性机构，甚至将OpenAI并入特斯拉，也都在考虑范围内。

On OpenAI's side, they sought to show that when there were negotiations going on over what the future of OpenAI could look like and what kind of structure it could adopt, that a for profit subsidiary was definitely on the table, but so was full on conversion to a for profit structure, and also absorbing OpenAI within Tesla.

我们原本就知道这是马斯克提过的提议，但通过齐利斯的证词，人们才清楚这个计划已经相当具体了——他们甚至在筹备公告和活动，为特斯拉启动自己的AI子公司造势，而且特斯拉确实在考虑从OpenAI挖人。

Now we knew that that was something Musk had proposed, but during Zilis' testimony, it became clear that that proposal was pretty fleshed out, and in fact, they were working on, announcements and events that would go along with Tesla starting its own AI subsidiary, and that in fact, Tesla was looking at hiring from OpenAI.

他们后来确实聘用了安德烈·卡帕西，他是OpenAI的早期成员、联合创始人之一；但当时也在考虑挖萨姆·阿尔特曼，而且认为在OpenAI的联合创始人里，阿尔特曼可能是最有可能跳槽去特斯拉的人。

It did eventually hire Andrei Karpathy, who was an early member of OpenAI, a founding member, but was also looking at hiring Sam Altman, and thought that Sam Altman, among OpenAI's cofounders, would maybe be one of the people who was most likely to leave to join Tesla.

所以，OpenAI走这条路线、在特斯拉内部发展AI的计划，比我们之前了解的要深入得多。

So that path for OpenAI and the idea of pursuing AI within Tesla was was more developed than we previously knew.

因此，齐利斯在法庭上的表现非常引人注目。

So Zilis was a fascinating character on the stand.

她还提到了自己的神经元。

She referenced her neurons.

她和律师们聊起了彼此相似的加拿大口音，气氛轻松。

She bantered with the lawyers about their shared Canadian accents.

总的来说，我觉得她在面对那些最严重的指控时——比如她暗中向马斯克泄露信息——反而安然无恙地挺了过来。

And overall, I think, emerged unscathed from some of the worst accusations against her, which which were that she was funneling information to Musk behind the scenes.

最终，她解释说，自己在OpenAI的历史中扮演的角色就是不断在各方之间协调，而她自己也尽力保持中立，时刻留意因与马斯克的关系可能带来的任何利益冲突。

Ultimately, she was able to explain that her role in OpenAI's history involved a lot of back and forth between different parties, and, in her telling, she tried her best to make sure that she stayed neutral and was aware of any potential conflicts that came from her relationship with Musk.

这就是她的证词所呈现出来的样子。

So that's how her testimony shook out.

在结束辩护之前，马斯克一方还剩下几位关键证人要传唤。

Musk's side still has a few key witnesses to call before they rest their case.

他们打算播放一些前OpenAI董事会成员的录影证词，那些人正好在萨姆·阿尔特曼被解雇时在任；我们预计接下来还会质询伊利亚·苏茨克弗——这位联合创始人，最终也会直接质询萨姆·阿尔特曼本人。

They're going to play some deposition videos from former board members of OpenAI who were involved when Sam Altman was fired, and we're still expected, to hear them question Ilya Sutzkever, who was a cofounder, and eventually to question Sam Altman themselves.

接下来，马斯克诉阿尔特曼案的进展就是这些了。

So that's what's coming up next in the Musk v.

阿尔特曼案。

Altman trial.

今天，Kalshi以220亿美元的估值融资了10亿美元。

Kalshi raised $1,000,000,000 at a $22,000,000,000 valuation today.

这是Kalshi与Polymarket之间激烈竞争的最新动态。

It is the latest development in a fierce rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket.

为此，我的同事们掌握了一些关于Polymarket当前业务状况的内部信息。

To that end, my colleagues have some inside details on the current state of Polymarket's business.

我想请出迈克尔·罗丹和杨悦琪，他们本周刚发布了这篇报道。

I want to bring on Michael Roddan and Yueqi Yang, who published that story this week.

欢迎两位的到来。

Welcome to the both of you.

很高兴你们能来。

It's great to have you here.

悦琪，我想先从你开始。

Yueqi, I want to start with you.

你对今天早上Kalshi融资的消息怎么看？

What did you make of the announcement this morning of Kalshi's fundraise?

今天早上Kalshi的融资公告中，有两点特别引起我的注意。

So two things stood out for me from Kalshi's announcement this morning.

第一点很明显，Kalshi正在努力争取机构投资者的支持。

First is that it's obvious that Kalshi is trying to get institutional backing for the company.

他们这一轮的投资者名单里提到了摩根士丹利。

One of the investors listed in their current round is Morgan Stanley.

我们知道，Kalshi最大的竞争对手Polymarket背后是ICE，也就是纽约证券交易所的母公司。

And we know that Kalshi's biggest rival, Polymarket, has the backing of ICE, which is the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

另一个让我注意的是，Kalshi的估值高达220亿美元，远超Polymarket的估值。

The other thing that stood out for me is that the valuation of Kalshi at $22,000,000,000 is much higher than the valuation of Polymarket.

上个月我们报道过，Polymarket一直在寻求以150亿美元的估值融资。

We reported last month that Polymarket has been trying to raise funding at a $15,000,000,000 valuation.

这比Kalshi已经获得的200亿美元估值还要低。

So that's smaller than the $20,000,000,000 valuation that Kalshi has already received.

接下来我们会详细聊聊，两家公司估值差距背后的原因。

And we'll get into more details about what explains the discrepancy between the two companies.

没错。

Right.

那Michael，我们转到你和Yueqi本周发表的那篇报道上吧。

Well, so, Michael, let's pivot then to talk about the story that you and Yueqi published this week.

你之前对Polymarket的美国业务做了一些调查。

You did some reporting on Polymarket's US business.

跟我们说说你发现了什么。

Tell us a little bit about what you found.

是的。

Yeah.

这事儿现在特别相关，尤其是Kalshi在融资上已经赶超了。

So it's it's it's very topical in terms of, like, Kalshi pulling ahead in fundraising.

Polymarket长期以来一直是市场领头羊，大家都知道它是这类预测市场的主导者，比如赌天气、伊朗战争，诸如此类。

Polymarket was sort of the market leader for a long time, and it was it's it's well known to be, like, sort of, like, the dominant player in these prediction markets where you can put bets on the weather, the war in Iran, who knows.

但最近，Kalshi在交易量和用户数上都大幅领先了。

But more recently, Kalshi has really stripped ahead in terms of trading volume users.

而且，它还配合着搞了一场大规模的营销活动。

And, you know, it's it's had this big marketing campaign alongside of that.

它成功的一个关键原因，是拥有一个受监管的美国实体，所有交易都通过这个实体进行。

Part of the reason for its success is it has this regulated US entity that pretty much all of the trading flows through for Kalshi.

而Polymarket在2022年左右被美国禁止了，因为它在没有牌照的情况下运营交易所。

Whereas Polymarket, it was banned from The US in about 2022 because it was operating an unlicensed exchange.

所以它把法律总部搬到了巴拿马，之后一直以离岸平台的形式运营。

So it actually moved its sort of legal headquarters to Panama and has operated this offshore platform ever since.

而且它用的是加密货币。

And it's done using crypto.

用户都是用加密货币进行交易的。

Customers use crypto.

他们还得用虚拟私人网络才能访问这个网站。

They use virtual private networks to access the site.

但最近，它正试图重返美国，想变成像Kalshi那样的合规实体，

But more recently, it's trying to move back to The US and become sort of like like Kalshi, like a a regulated entity that's that's and part of And

你之前做过一些深入的报道，关于他们的CEO，还有那个美国实体的负责人，

and you you had some good reporting about about their CEO, about the about The US entity CEO.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们很好奇，为什么Polymarket在和Kalshi的竞争中落了下风？

And and so, like, we were curious as to, like, why is Polymarket losing the race against Kalshi?

我们特别关注的是Polymarket美国持牌实体的负责人，一个叫贾斯汀·赫茨伯格的人，住在佛罗里达。

And what we were curious about was the person leading The US licensed entity for Polymarket, who's this guy called Justin Hertzberg, lives in Florida.

但他做的很多事情，看起来跟Polymarket根本没关系。

But a lot of what he seems to be doing doesn't seem to relate to Polymarket at all.

他还有好几项其他生意，大部分时间都花在那些上面。

He has a number of other sort of businesses that he spends most of his time on.

按理说这个职位应该很重要，毕竟所有交易都经过这个交易所。

And this role you'd think would be important because it's the exchange where all the trades are flowing through.

他是名义上的CEO，但根本看不到人影。

He's the CEO or the nominal CEO of it, but he just doesn't seem to be there.

所以我们想在报道里把这件事拆开看看。

And so we were trying to pick apart that in our story.

与此同时，Kalshi在客户数量、交易量等方面却一路领先。

And meanwhile, Kalshi is just racing ahead in terms of customers, trading volume, etcetera.

所以迈克尔，你联系过赫茨伯格吗？

So Michael, did you get in touch with Hertzberg?

他有没有跟你提过那些其他生意，或者他现在到底参与了多少Polymarket的业务？

Did he tell you anything about these other businesses or what his involvement is in the current Polymarket business?

是的。

Yeah.

特别奇怪的是，Justin Hertzberg在给监管机构CFTC的几封信里都被列为CEO，但他的领英资料上却完全没提自己是Polymarket美国公司的首席执行官。

It was really strange because Justin Hertzberg is identified as the CEO in a couple of letters to the regulator, which is the CFTC, But he doesn't share the role of Polymarket US CEO on his LinkedIn.

他在任何接受采访的播客里也从不提这个头衔，而他上过的播客可不少。

He doesn't mention it on any podcasts that he appears on, which are numerous.

他写文章给福布斯这类媒体时，个人简介里也从来不提这一职务。

He doesn't mention it in his online biographies when he writes for, say, Forbes.

他实际上是家公司的负责人，这家公司专门为金融市场的边缘领域——自营交易——提供交易平台的白标服务。

He's the head of this company that white labels trading platforms for a a area of the financial markets on the fringes called prop trading.

这正是很多日内交易者整天泡的地方。

And this is, like, where a lot of day traders spend their time.

简直就像游戏化的交易。

It's like gamified trading.

很多方面都跟赌场挺像的，不过说到底，预测市场本身也差不了多少。

It sort of resembles a casino in many ways, which is, I mean, I guess, unlike not unlike the prediction markets themselves.

他创办了数百家这样的自营交易公司，这个领域挺特别的，正好处在金融市场的边缘地带。

But he's set up hundreds of these prop trading firms, which is a very interesting space because it's very sort of like on the fringes of the financial markets.

那里到底遵守什么规则，根本看不清楚。

It's very hard to see what rules take place there.

很多人想加入这些公司，用自己的钱和投资人的钱去交易，结果亏得一塌糊涂。

And a lot of people end up losing money by trying to gain access to these firms where they're trading their own money and investors' money.

不过呢，他现在满世界跑，代表他旗下的这些公司活动。

But yeah, so he's travelling around the world representing those companies that he operates.

他一直在签合同，收购新的自营交易平台公司。

He's signing deals like acquiring new prop trading platform firms.

与此同时，Polymarket 在美国的运营还没达到最佳状态。

Meanwhile, Polymarket is just sort of not really at peak operational in The US.

他们有一百三十万用户在排队，等着使用这个在美国合法的交易平台。

It's got a customer waitlist of 1,300,000 users who are waiting to trade on that US legal platform.

但他们在技术上遇到了不少问题。

But they've been having a lot of engineering problems.

后端支付系统出了些状况，他们正在努力修复。

In the back end, they've had some issues with their payments infrastructure that they're trying to rectify.

Polymarket 的工程师们公开谈论过这些技术难题，并表示正在积极解决。

Polymarket's engineers are talking publicly about how there's been a lot of engineering problems and they're trying to fix them.

看来 Polymarket 回到美国的计划并没有按预期推进，而本该担任其合法实体 CEO 的那个人，却在忙自己的事，这实在有点奇怪。

So it just seems like this situation where not everything has gone to plan for Polymarket's return to The US, And meanwhile, this person who's meant to be the CEO of their licensed entity is sort of off doing his own thing, which I think is very strange.

Yueqi，我想聊聊预测市场这个核心问题，看看不同相关方是怎么看待它的。

Yueqi, I kind of want to get to the big question here around prediction markets, and we'll talk about how all different stakeholders are thinking about this question.

说到底，预测市场会不会迎来一次大清算？

I mean, is there a reckoning coming for prediction markets?

迈克尔，我马上来问你政府官员对这个问题怎么看。

Michael, I'll come to you in a second about what government officials are thinking about this question.

不过 Yueqi，硅谷那边是怎么看待这个问题的？

But Yueqi, I mean, how is Silicon Valley grappling with this question?

投资者是怎么看待交易者的？

How are investors thinking about traders?

别人跟你都怎么说的？

What are people telling you?

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

我觉得一方面，很多投资者都认为，预测市场还处于早期阶段。

I think on one hand, a lot of people, including investors, that back these prediction markets things that we're still at early stage of prediction markets.

到目前为止，大部分交易量都集中在体育博彩上。

So far, most of the volume concentrates on sports bets.

所以，它还没能真正吸引到非体育爱好者，让他们来参与天气、经济数据这些其他类型的预测。

And so it is not yet entirely reaching a mainstream audience in terms of providing and allowing people who are not interested in sports to bet on this variety of other things such as weather, such as economic data, etcetera.

而预测市场正试图拓展这方面，以实现收入多元化。

And that's something that prediction markets are trying to build out so that they can diversify their revenue.

但与此同时，我也接触过一些人，他们认为预测市场可能在一年左右就接近顶峰了，因为一旦政府更替，监管环境就会发生变化。

But at the same time, I also talk to people who think that we're probably going to near peak of prediction markets soon in a year or so because the regulatory environment will change once we have a change in the administration.

目前，特朗普政府对预测市场态度非常友好，但一旦换了政府，情况可能就不一样了。

Currently, the Trump administration is very friendly with prediction markets, but that may not stay the same once we have a different government.

此外，各州监管机构也带来不少麻烦，不少州正在起诉这些预测市场平台，阻止它们提供体育赛事投注，认为这等同于未经许可的体育博彩。

And there's also just this almost like indefinite headache with state regulators where a number of these stakes are suing prediction markets to prevent them from offering sports bets, which the states think are just equivalent to unregistered sports gambling offerings.

因此，预测市场正面临越来越大的监管压力。

So there are these regulatory headwinds that are coming for prediction markets.

但与此同时，这些平台在用户中正逐渐获得认可。

And meanwhile, these markets are just getting traction with users.

迈克尔，你刚才其实提到了这一点，能不能再详细说说，特朗普政府对预测市场的看法是怎样的？

Michael, you you actually touched on it, but but tell us a little more about how the Trump administration is thinking about the perdition markets landscape.

对。

Yeah.

挺有意思的是，这些平台是在2024年美国大选期间真正走红的，那次特朗普赢了。

It's interesting because these platforms really came to prominence during the twenty twenty four US election where which Trump won.

特朗普一家特别喜欢预测市场，因为跟很多民调不一样，这些市场一直显示特朗普优势巨大，尤其是在他和拜登辩论之后——那场辩论的结果谁都看得出来。

And the Trump family really loved the prediction markets because unlike a lot of the polling, they were very favorable in showing that Trump had pretty much like an unassailable lead, particularly after the the the debate with Joe Biden where it everyone pretty much, you know, couldn't deny it.

我们都记得那场辩论。

We all we all remember it.

所以小特朗普跟Kalshi和Polymarket这两个平台关系特别紧密，他不仅是其中一家风投基金的合伙人，还担任这两家平台的顾问。

And so, you know, Donald Trump junior became very sort of, like, intertwined with both Kalshi and Polymarket, a venture fund where he is a partner invested in one that I I think one of the firms, but he's an adviser to both.

因此，他们对这个行业一直大力支持。

So they've been very supportive of this industry.

在特朗普政府领导下，负责监管合约市场的商品期货交易委员会，给这些公司开了绿灯。

And under the Trump administration, the CFTC, which is the regulator for contracts markets, has rolled out the red carpet for these firms.

目前，他们正在法律上代表这些市场与各州打官司。

They are representing the markets in the legal battles with the states at the moment.

商品期货交易委员会主席公开多次为这些平台辩护，哪怕它们的做法明显跟现有法律相冲突。

The chairman of the CFTC has been on the public record very clearly defending these platforms and their ability to do anything even when it seems very contradictory to the statutes on the books.

但最近，情况有了一点变化。

But more recently, that's shifted a little bit.

这其中可能有各种原因。

And, you know, there there may be a variety of reasons for this.

最近有个陆军军官在平台上押注委内瑞拉总统下台，就在美军即将抓获他的前一刻，他赢了四十万美元。

But recently, there was a special there was an army officer who who won $400,000 betting on the ouster of the Venezuelan president just moments before US forces sort of captured him.

前几天，他被起诉了。

And he was indicted the other day.

Polymarket 主动向执法部门举报了这位下注的陆军军官的身份。

Polymarket did notify law enforcement about the identity of that army officer who bet on the platform.

特朗普在接受记者采访时感叹，整个世界正变成一个赌场，而他其实一直不支持这种做法。

But Trump was speaking to reporters, and he sort of lamented how the whole world was becoming a casino and that he was never really in favor of it.

特朗普说话向来前后不一，这次可能只是回应公众压力罢了。

Trump says a lot of different things at a lot of different times, so he might just be sort of responding to public pressure there.

不过，在与各州的法律对抗中，商品期货交易委员会依然站在平台一边，继续充当它们的盟友。

And the CFTC hasn't changed tech in its battle, with the states where it's where it's acting as sort of like a a partner to the platforms, in a lot of those cases.

但各州非常反感。

But the states hate it.

你知道的。

You know?

他们担心会失去大量体育博彩收入，而且一旦商品期货交易委员会开始监管体育博彩——这原本是各州的管辖范围——整个监管环境就会变得非常模糊。

They're they're they're they fear that they'll lose a lot of revenue from sports gambling, and and the the regulatory environment sort of becomes very unclear when the CFTC starts regulating sports bets, which is usually the domain of the states.

所以现在这件事正在法院里慢慢推进，目前争议很大。

So it's working its way through the courts now, for now it's very contested.

Yueqi，我能再问你最后一个问题吗？

Yueqi, can I ask you one last question?

关于预测市场，我在想那些在加密货币热潮中冒出来的所有初创公司。

Prediction markets, I'm thinking about all of the startups that popped up around the crypto booms.

它们不只是交易公司，还有各种基础设施公司。

These are not just trading companies, there's all the different infrastructure companies.

加密货币有这么多不同的层面，正是这些催生了我们整个初创生态系统。

There's so many different layers to crypto that sort of gave rise to our whole ecosystem of startups.

就在本周早些时候，我们还聊过安德森的新基金，还有汉风投的新基金。

We were talking just earlier this week about Andreessen's new fund and certainly Han Ventures new fund.

在你的圈子里，大家是不是觉得预测市场也会冒出一批新的创业公司？

Do people in your orbit I mean, do they expect a new crop of startups to pop up around prediction markets?

不一定是市场本身，但我猜会有一堆做交易技术的，或者做市场数据分析的公司。

Not necessarily the markets themselves, but I imagine trading technologies or, I don't know, maybe data analysis reading the markets, data analysis.

我还没去看过，但你要是翻翻最新的Y Combinator项目，说不定能发现一堆创始人说，我要抓住这个机会。

I haven't even looked at it, but maybe if you look at the latest Y Combinator batch, I wonder if you'd see a bunch of founders saying, I'm going to take advantage of this moment.

是的，现在预测市场生态里已经冒出一批初创公司了。

Yeah, there are already a crop of startups that are popping up in the prediction market ecosystem.

不过得说一句，这些公司都没法跟Kalshi和Polymarket这些主流平台比收入。

I will say, though, none of them is generating as much revenue as the main platforms, which are Kalshi and Polymarket.

有些公司主要做分析工具。

There are some startups that are providing analytics tools.

迈克尔写过一些创业公司，它们允许用户复制所谓‘内部人士’的交易，那些人有很强的记录，总能精准地做出高回报的交易，你跟着他们就能受益。

I think Michael wrote about startups that are allowing people to copy the trades of what they call insiders, people who have this track record of making highly unusual, well timed profitable trades so that you can benefit from their strategy.

我还认识一些人在做专门为未来市场交易者服务的主经纪商业务。

I also know people who are building what they call prime brokerages for future market traders.

确实有不少初创公司正在兴起，投资者也在关注它们。

So there are startups that are forming, and investors are looking at them.

他们也在关注新的预测市场平台本身。

They're they're also looking at new prediction market platforms themselves.

有些公司试图专注于某一种特定类型的投注。

Some of these are trying to specialize in a certain type of bets.

但我认为大多数人会同意，目前这个市场还是由两大平台主导，新平台要想打破它们的垄断非常困难。

But I think most people will agree that this is a market where it's currently dominated by the two biggest platforms, and it's very hard to break their dominant as a new platform.

没错。

Right.

迈克尔，这些初创公司是不是也没那么模糊不清？

And, Michael, are these are these startups any less murky?

我们之前在节目中聊过这个，它们在监管方面是不是站得更稳一些？

The one you know, we we talked about this earlier in the show, but are they are they sitting on any better ground in terms of regulations?

说实话，这还是个挺新兴的行业。

You know, like, if if I'm gonna be fair, like, this is a very sort of, like, emerging industry.

你知道的。

You know?

这事儿还在发展中。

This is a developing story.

这事儿还在发展中。

This is a developing story.

规矩还没定下来呢。

Like, the rules have not been set.

你知道的。

You know?

就连Kalshi和Polymarket这些平台，也是年轻人在操盘。

It's like so, like, even Kalshi and Polymarket, you know, these are run by really young people.

写这行报道挺奇怪的，因为很多主角比我年轻，这跟我平时打交道的情况正好反过来了。

You know, it's it's strange, like, writing about this in in industry because, you know, a lot of the times that people who are younger than me, which is, you know, a a reversal from, like, what I've normally done.

不过，岳琪，这是迈克在跟你打招呼。

But, yeah, Yueqi, this is this is Michael saying, hey.

对。

Yeah.

我

I'm

我年纪有点大了。

a little I'm a little old.

对这事儿有点累了。

Tired for this.

不是。

No.

这简直就是无法无天的西部荒野。

But it's it's it's it's the Wild West.

你知道的。

You know?

所以现在根本说不清到底有哪些规矩。

So it's like it's very unclear what the rules are.

你知道的。

You know?

很多做这些应用的人，利用那些由匿名创始人运营的交易网络，

A lot of these people building a lot of these apps that sort of leverage these trading networks run by anonymous founders.

你知道，这些平台都在 Telegram 上。

You know, it's it's on Telegram.

他们还得用 VPN 才能访问这些网站。

You know, they're they're using VPNs to access the sites.

市场上挤满了做市商，还有各种想抢先交易的人，情况跟传统金融市场完全不一样，甚至在正常的金融环境和监管体系下，现在都显得特别古怪。

You know, it's it's flooded by, like, market makers and, you know, people who are looking to, like, sort of front run trades and, you know, it's it's very different to traditional financial markets or what you'd expect, you know, if we live in a very strange time even in normal financial markets and in regulation there.

不过嘛，预测市场这块地方，你真得有颗强大的心脏才能蹚得下去。

But but, yeah, the prediction market space is still you know, you have to have a a strong stomach to wade through there.

没错。

Right.

没错。

Right.

非常感谢两位今天来做客，帮我们理清了这些复杂的事情。

Well, I wanna thank you both for coming on and helping us to make sense of all of it.

报道得非常出色。

It was some great reporting.

这位是我们的加密货币记者杨悦琪，这位是我们的财经记者迈克尔·罗登，他们都来自《The Information》。

That is Yueqi Yang, our crypto reporter, and Michael Roddan, our finance reporter here at The Information.

今天的节目就到这里。

That does it for today's show.

提醒一下，我们的直播每周一到周五上午10点（太平洋时间），下午1点（东部时间）准时开始。

A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.

如果错过直播，节目回放可以在theinformation.com、我们的YouTube频道，或者你常用的播客平台收听。

You can't make it then, episodes are available on theinformation.com, on our YouTube channel, or wherever you get your podcasts.

别忘了在X、Instagram和TikTok上关注我们。

Make sure to follow us on social media on X, Instagram, and TikTok.

我已经开始期待明天的节目了。

I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.

祝你周四剩下的时间愉快。

Have a great rest of your Thursday.

那先这样，再见了。

Bye bye for now.