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欢迎各位收看Information的TI TV。
Welcome everyone to the Information's TI TV.
我叫阿卡什·佩斯里查。
My name is Akash Pesritcha.
今天是12月1日,星期一。
It is Monday, December 1.
今天我们为大家带来了一群明星记者和嘉宾。
We have got an all star lineup of reporters and guests for you today.
首先,我们将深入探讨今天关于AWS的专题报道,由我们的企业软件记者带来。
First up, we are digging into today's feature story on AWS with our enterprise software reporter.
接着,我们将讨论中美芯片战争格局的演变。
We're then turning to a conversation on the shifting landscape in The US China chip war.
最后,由于现在正式进入假日季节,我们将从政策和基础设施转向产品,通过我们的焦点和2025年假日礼品指南,展现塑造我们日常生活的商品。
And finally, because it is officially the holiday season, we are shifting gears from policy and infrastructure to the products, shaping our everyday lives with our spotlight and our 2025 holiday gift guide.
今天,我们将为您介绍榜单上 standout 礼品背后的三位创始人。
Today, we're bringing you three founders behind the standout gifts on our list.
它们涵盖桌游、航班应用和服装。
They span board games, flight apps, and apparel.
这将是一场非常繁忙的节目。
It's going to be a busy, busy show.
那么,让我们直接进入正题。
And so let's get right on into things.
本周科技活动密集,亚马逊云科技Reinvent大会正在拉斯维加斯举行。
It's a busy week for tech events, and Amazon Web Services Reinvent Conference is taking the stage in Las Vegas.
我们自己的企业软件记者凯文·麦克拉伦在周日简报中称其为云计算的超级碗,他今天发布了一篇新文章,详细介绍了AWS的亮点。
Our very own Kevin McLaughlin, who covers enterprise software, in his Sunday briefing called it the Super Bowl of Cloud Computing, and he has a new story out today with details on what to expect from AWS.
我想请他来跟我们分享更多他的看法。
I want to bring him on to tell us more about what he is thinking about.
凯文,欢迎来到TI TV。
Kevin, welcome to TI TV.
很高兴你再次回来。
It's great to have you back on.
谢谢邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
我们来谈谈 re:Invent 吧。
So let's talk about re:Invent.
这周我们能从这次大会上期待些什么?
What can we expect this week from the conference?
嗯,这确实是云计算的超级碗。
Well, it really is kind of the Super Bowl of cloud computing.
我的意思是,没有中场秀,这是唯一的不同。
I mean, there's no halftime show, so that's the only difference.
但每个软件供应商和初创公司都会来到拉斯维加斯的展览厅展示他们的产品。
But it is a every software vendor startup, comes to pitch their wares on the Expo Hall Floor in Las Vegas.
这同时也是许多客户交流的好机会。
It's also a chance for, a lot of customer conversations to happen as well.
所以这是一场大型的销售活动。
So it's a big sales event.
这是一场客户大会。
It's a customer conference.
没错。
Right.
而且这也是亚马逊发布年度重大新品的地方,而如今这些新品都围绕着人工智能。
And it's also where Amazon announces their new their big new stuff for the year, which these days is all about AI.
那么,你的消息来源告诉你,这周他们会发布什么新东西?
And so what are your sources telling you that they are going to debut this week?
我们今天早上报道过,本周可能会推出一款新的Nova模型。
We reported this morning there is a new Nova model potentially being talked about this week.
与去年不同的是,去年他们推出了Nova系列。
The big difference, there was a new Nova model last year, and that was where they launched Nova line.
但今年最大的不同是,这是一款一体化模型,能够处理和分析视频、图像、语音和文本。
But the big difference this year is that this is an all in one model that can handle and process video, images, speech, and text.
这意味着它更直接地与谷歌Gemini和OpenAI的模型竞争。
And what that means is that it's more of a direct competitor to models like Google Gemini and OpenAI.
所以这绝对是亚马逊之前产品的重大升级。
So this is definitely a big step up from what Amazon had before.
不过,客户会如何使用它,以及会有多少客户真正采用它,还有待观察。
It remains to be seen though, whether how customers are using it or how many customers will actually adopt it.
我想稍后谈谈 AWS 的发展趋势,但我们之前已经邀请过 AWS 的高管做客节目。
And I want to talk about the trajectory of AWS here in a second, but we've had AWS executives on the show before.
他们当时谈了很多关于 Bedrock 的内容。
They talked a lot about Bedrock.
那么 Nova 和 Bedrock 之间有什么区别呢?让我们搞清楚一下。
What's the difference here between Nova and Bedrock, just so we understand?
Nova 通过 Bedrock 销售,作为一系列第三方模型的一部分,尤其是 Anthropic,这是他们主打的模型之一,此外还有 Meta、Cohere 和其他几家。
Well, Nova is sold through Bedrock as part of a collection of other models from third parties, especially Anthropic, which is one of the main ones they lead with, but also Meta, Cohere, and several others.
所以 Bedrock 是 AWS 主要的 AI 服务。
So Bedrock is the main AWS AI service.
明白了。
Got it.
明白了。
Got it.
Nova 就是其中的一部分。
And Nova fits into that.
好的。
Okay.
我想谈谈 AWS 在人工智能方面的整体发展轨迹。
Well, I want to talk a little bit about AWS' trajectory with AI overall.
我认为普遍认为他们在这一领域已经落后,逐渐被边缘化了。
I think consensus is that they have lagged and fallen out of the conversation a bit.
你能简单介绍一下为什么会这样,以及他们面临哪些真正的挑战吗?
Can you walk us a little bit through the history of why that is the case, and where they face challenges, really?
当然。
Sure.
我认为这种看法很大程度上源于 AWS 在市场份额、覆盖范围以及几乎所有其他指标上仍然是云领域的王者。
I think a lot of this perception comes from the fact that AWS is still very much king of the cloud in terms of market share and reach and basically every other metric.
所以,AI是亚马逊第一次处于被动地位。
So AI has been the first time where Amazon has been sort of on its back foot.
我的意思是,在传统的机器学习时代,亚马逊和AWS是最早提供云服务,让企业能够用来开发AI应用的公司之一。
And what I mean by that is in the old world of machine learning, Amazon was, AWS was one of the first to actually offer a cloud service that companies could use to work and build AI applications.
因此,他们并没有错过这波浪潮,也没有在这方面落后。
So it wasn't like they missed the boat or were late on that front.
但当ChatGPT三年前问世时,人们开始意识到,也许他们并不是这里的领导者。
But when ChatGepti arrived three years ago, that was when things started to become apparent that, hey, maybe they are not the leaders here.
AWS错失了早期与OpenAI和Anthropic建立紧密合作关系的机会,而这些机会本可以改变今天的格局。
And AWS passed on early opportunities to forge close relationships with OpenAI and Anthropic, which could have changed the current state of play today.
当然,亚马逊最终还是投资了80亿美元给Anthropic,并与之建立了非常紧密的关系。
And of course, Amazon eventually did invest $8,000,000,000 in Anthropic and has a very close relationship with them.
所以他们确实有故事可讲,并非完全错失良机,但外界的普遍印象仍是他们落后于OpenAI、谷歌和Anthropic。
So they do have a story to tell, and it's not like they're completely missing the boat, the perception is still that they're behind OpenAI and Google and Anthropic.
你对Reinvent大会还有什么期待?
What else are you expecting from Reinvent?
你提到了Nova。
You talked about Nova.
那芯片和一些其代理产品呢?
What about the chips and some of its agents' products?
是的,今年夏天推出了一款名为Bedrock Agent Core的产品。
Yeah, so we have, there was a product launched this summer called Bedrock Agent Core.
Bedrock在两年前(两年前以上)推出时,就附带了一些代理构建工具。
And this was an attempt, Bedrock initially had some agent building tools with it when it launched two years ago, over two years ago.
但据我了解,这些工具并没有被广泛使用。
But they were not, my understanding is they were not widely used.
因此,亚马逊今年夏天推出了名为Bedrock Agent Core的服务。
So Amazon launched this service this summer called Bedrock Agent Core.
这为企业构建代理提供了一种更简便的方式。
And it's basically a way for enterprises to build agents, and it's a little bit more sort of easier for them to do so.
这款产品在上线的几个月里获得了大量正面评价。
And the product has gotten a lot of positive buzz in the few months that it's been available.
因此,我们可以在 re:Invent 大会上看到一些客户证言,或许还会有一些新功能发布等等。
So we can expect to see customers testimonials at re:Invent, perhaps some new features and things like that.
另一方面,我们有 Trainium,这是亚马逊的定制芯片。
And then on the other hand, we have Trainium, which is Amazon's custom chips.
对。
Right.
据预期,他们去年在 re:Invent 上谈到了 Trainium 的第三代产品。
Where expected they they talked about Trainium three, the third version last year at re:Invent.
因此,我们应该会看到一些客户证言,讲述他们如何使用这些芯片。
So we should expect to see some customer testimonials about how they're using those chips.
我认为亚马逊有必要谈论 Trainium,因为这是他们对标谷歌 TPU AI 芯片的产品。
And I think it's really important for Amazon to talk about Tranium because that is their counterpart to the Google TPU AI chips.
说到这一点,上周我们在这档节目中已经多次谈到谷歌的 TPU 正在获得越来越多的市场认可。
And on that note, we've talked a lot on this show last week about the traction that the TPUs are getting for Google.
你认为 Trainium 会获得同样的市场反响吗?
Do you anticipate that Traneum is going to get the same type of traction?
这里是否存在技术差异,仍可能使其落后于TPU?
Is there technical differences here that could still put it behind TPUs?
你如何看待这场对话的发展?
How do you see that conversation unfolding?
现在说还为时过早。
It's really too early to say.
亚马逊刚刚推出了Project Rainier,这是一台由亚马逊与Anthropic共同打造的超级计算机,首发时包含了50万个Trainium芯片。
Amazon just launched Project Rainier, which is a giant supercomputer that they built in conjunction with Anthropic that includes 500,000 Tranium chips when it launched.
亚马逊表示,预计Anthropic到今年年底(距今四周)将把使用量扩大到一百万个以上。
Amazon said that it expects Anthropic to scale that usage to more than a million by the end of the year, which is four weeks away.
因此,Anthropic无疑将成为Trainium三号的重磅客户。
So surely Anthropic is gonna be a very big customer of Trainium three.
但就使用情况和其扩展方式而言,我觉得目前还很难判断。
But in terms of like the usage and how that's going to scale, I think it's sort of hard to say at this point.
我不愿做出猜测。
I wouldn't want to venture a guess.
我知道第一代Trainium存在一些问题,导致许多客户无法使用。
I do know that the first version of Trainium had some glitches that prevented many customers from using it.
Trainium二代修复了大量这些问题,而在优化产品缺陷方面,没有哪家公司比AWS更擅长迭代了。
Trainium two fixed a lot of those issues, and no one iterates better than AWS in terms of working out the kinks with products.
因此,我们可以预期Trainium三代将拥有更多客户,甚至可能带来一些令人惊讶的新客户。
So we can expect to see Trainium three probably having more customers and perhaps even some surprising new customers.
对。
Right.
现在,你提到了AWS(亚马逊)对Anthropic投资的80亿美元,显然他们在很大程度上依赖Anthropic来进行这些AI产品的大量实验和开发。
Now, you talked about the $8,000,000,000 that AWS, Amazon, has invested in Anthropic, and obviously they are leaning on them heavily for a lot of their experimentation and development with these AI products.
总体来看,这种合作关系进展如何?
How is that relationship faring overall?
据我所知,目前关系还算良好。
I think it's still fine as far as I could tell.
就像任何合作关系一样,难免会遇到波折,亚马逊和Anthropic确实经历过这些,就像微软和OpenAI一样。
Like any relationship, there are bumps in the road, certainly Amazon and Anthropic have gone through those, just like Microsoft and OpenAI have gone through.
我认为我的印象是,亚马逊正在与微软签订协议,并最近扩大了与谷歌云的合作。
I think that my impression is that, well, Amazon is signing deals with Microsoft and they're expanding their agreement recently with Google Cloud.
想想Anthropic,就像OpenAI一样,对计算资源有着巨大的需求。
Think Anthropic, just like OpenAI, has an enormous appetite for compute.
因此,这些合作关系和扩展很可能也是由这一需求推动的。
And so those relationships and those expansions are probably being driven by that as well.
不过,我也在想,Anthropic是否希望AWS能像微软在Azure上推广OpenAI那样更 prominently 地推广它。
I also, I wonder though, if Anthropic wanted AWS to feature it more the way that Microsoft features OpenAI and Azure.
我没有任何报道能证实这一点,但我在一些对话中确实有这种直觉,即亚马逊非常致力于推广自己的模型——Nova系列,这也没问题。
I don't have any reporting to back that up, but it was this kind of a gut feeling that I had in some of the conversations where Amazon is really intent on promoting its own models, the Nova line, which is fine.
他们投资了这些模型,并希望拥有一个自有模型,以证明自己真正参与了AI领域的竞争。
They invested in those and they want want to have a first party model to show that they're actually in the game in AI.
但与此同时,如果你是Anthropic,或许你希望它能被更显著地展示出来。
But at the same time, if you're anthropic, maybe you want it to be featured a little bit more prominently.
对。
Right.
好了,凯文,感谢你前来做客。
Well, Kevin, thanks for coming on.
我们非常感谢,很快再和你聊。
We really appreciate it, and we'll talk to you again very soon.
谢谢。
Thank you.
好的。
Okay.
多年来,英伟达在中国的故事一直被与华盛顿的猫鼠游戏所定义,美国的出口管制不断收紧,限制了美国芯片技术在中国的销售范围。
For years, the story of NVIDIA in China has been defined by a cat and mouse game with Washington, with US export controls tightening the leash on what American chip technology could and couldn't be sold in the country.
但《信息》独家最新报道揭示,这一动态已经发生变化,如今中国监管机构成为关注的焦点。
But an exclusive new report from The Information reveals that dynamic has shifted, and now China regulators are now the center of focus.
现在邀请到《信息》的记者坦纳·刘。
Joining me now is Tanner Liu, reporter at The Information.
坦纳,欢迎来到TI TV。
Tanner, welcome to TI TV.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thank you for having me.
让我们谈谈你上周末和上周发布的这两份报告。
So let's talk about these pair of reports that you published over the weekend and last week.
谈谈中国最新的举措在推动国产芯片国内普及方面进展如何。
Talk to us a little bit about how China's latest move is faring in terms of how they aim to grow adoption of their chips domestically.
当然。
Sure.
我们看到中国在支持本土AI芯片市场方面力度大幅升级。
We have seen a major escalation in China's effort to support local AI chip markets.
今年8月,我们报道过中国监管机构要求科技公司停止采购英伟达芯片。
In August, we reported that Chinese regulator asked tech companies to stop ordering NVIDIA chips.
现在,他们还禁止公司将其已购买的英伟达芯片用于新建的AI数据中心。
Now they are blocking companies from using the NVIDIA chips they already buy for new AI data centers.
例如,百度今年是英伟达在中国最大的客户,但现在却囤积了一大批无法使用的英伟达芯片。
For example, BaiDance, NVIDIA's biggest Chinese customer this year, is basically sitting on a stockpile of NVIDIA chips it can't use.
因此,这是北京强制与中国以外的AI生态系统彻底脱钩。
So this is Beijing forcing a full breakup from The US AI ecosystem.
他们正在推动企业转向华为、寒武纪、阿里巴巴等国产AI芯片。
They are pushing company onto homegrown AI chips from Huawei's, Capricorns, Alibaba and others.
但目前大多数中国芯片只能处理推理任务,无法进行训练,而训练是一个计算密集型过程,真正用于构建AI模型。
But most Chinese chip currently can only handle inference workload, not training, which is a compute intensive process that actually build AI models.
所以这里面有很多内容我想深入探讨一下。
So there's a lot there that I want to double click on.
我想请你解释一下,在中国国内,这些公司对英伟达构成了多大的竞争压力?
I think one of the pieces I wanted to get your explanation on here is, can you explain to us domestically in China how much competition there is from those players to NVIDIA?
你提到了华为以及其他正在开发技术的公司。
You mentioned Huawei and some of the other companies that are developing their technology.
它们的技术水平如何?
How good is it?
对它的需求有多大?
How much demand is there for it?
它们在哪些方面不足?
Where do they fall short?
谈谈这个。
Talk about that.
当然。
Sure.
监管压力确实迫使科技公司远离英伟达等外国产品,这无疑为本土芯片公司创造了 captive 市场。
The regulatory pressure definitely forces these the regulatory pressure forcing tech companies off foreign trips like Nvidia is definitely creating a captive market for local chip companies.
我们可以从华为开始。
So we can start from Huawei.
它是中国的AI芯片领域的明确领导者。
How it's a clear leader in China's AI chip sector.
他们刚刚公布了一项雄心勃勃的三年路线图,推出三款新型AI芯片,采用国产高内存、高带宽内存和全新架构设计,这基本证实了我们之前关于华为的两篇报道。
They just unveiled an ambitious three years roadmap with three new AI chips using local high memory, high bandwidth memories and a whole new design structure, which is basically confirmed two stories we previously did about Huawei.
但无论华为如何努力,其芯片在单芯片性能上仍弱于英伟达的顶级产品。
But no matter how hard Huawei tried, chips do its chips are still weaker than Nvidia's best offerings in single chip performance.
华为的每款芯片设计,尤其是其旗舰产品昇腾910C,性能仅约为英伟达最先进芯片的三分之一。
Each Huawei's chips designs, especially their flagship Ascent 910C, deliver about one third performance of Nvidia's most cutting edge chips.
因此,他们试图通过规模和数量来弥补,利用先进的互连技术将大量性能较差的芯片组合在一起,扩展到数千甚至上万个芯片组成一个超级节点,最终可能达到百万级芯片的超级集群。
So they are trying to compensate with scales and quantity by throwing massive numbers of these inferior chips together using advanced interconnect technology, scaling up to, you know, like more than 10,000 chips into a single super node, and eventually maybe a million chips in super clusters.
因此,华为的产品在理论上可以匹配或超越英伟达服务器的性能。
So Huawei's offerings can theoretically match or exceeds NVIDIA servers performance.
因为他们把这么多芯片组合在一起。
Because they're putting so many of them together.
没错。
Exactly.
所以,该公司正利用其网络技术优势和中国在供电方面的优势,通过系统级性能来弥补单芯片性能的不足。
So basically, the company's it's leveraging its networking expertise and China's power supply advantage to achieve competitive system level performance to compensate single chip performance limitation.
那么,这与如今在英伟达故事中变得如此重要的H20和H200芯片相比如何?
And how does that how does that compare to, you know, the H H20 and the H200 chips now that have become so relevant to the NVIDIA story?
华为芯片与英伟达在中国市场能销售的芯片相比如何?
How do the Huawei chips compare to what NVIDIA can sell in the country?
对于华为的大多数芯片来说,它们已经在市场上销售了。
So for Huawei's so most Huawei's chips, they can they are on sale in the market.
实际上比英伟达能在中国销售的最顶级芯片H20还要好。
Actually better than the edge 20, which is the best chips NVIDIA can, and it's allowed to sell to China.
但对于其他芯片,比如H200和Blackwell芯片,华为的芯片在单芯片性能上仍然远远落后。
But for the rest of the chips like edge 200 and blood wild chips, Huawei's chip is still far, far behind in single chip level.
这就是为什么我说他们正在走以数量弥补质量的路线。
That's why I say they were trying to compensate to go with this quantity over quality route.
没错。
Right.
对于其他公司,总部位于北京的寒武纪是另一个关键玩家。
And for these other companies, Beijing based Cambrecon is another key player.
它的股价已经说明了一切。
Its stock already tells the story.
过去三个月里,其股价飙升了100%以上,因为中国投资者正大力押注中国技术自主自立的推进。
Its stock surged over 100% in the past three months as the Chinese investors are betting heavily on China's technology self sufficiency push.
其他科技巨头也在开发自己的芯片。
You have other tech giants developing their own chips.
阿里巴巴和百度都已开始使用自研芯片训练自己的AI模型。
Alibaba and Baidu have both started training their own AI models with their own in house chips.
自今年早些时候起,阿里巴巴就开始部署名为真武的自研芯片,用于小型AI模型。
Alibaba has been deploying their own chips called Zhenwu for smaller AI models since earlier this year.
而百度则正在使用其昆仑芯片测试其旗舰文心AI系统的新型号。
And while Baidu, it's testing new versions of its flagship Ernie AI system using its Kunlun chips.
阿里巴巴的昇腾芯片在内部测试中的表现可与英伟达的S20相媲美。
So Alibaba's Sheng Wu chip can perform as good as Nvidia's S20 in their internal testing.
阿里巴巴还在研发用于AI训练的芯片,其内部测试显示性能已接近英伟达的A100。
Alibaba is also working on a chip for AI training, which in their internal testing can perform close to Nvidia's A100.
A100是英伟达于2020年发布的芯片。
A100 is Nvidia's chip released in 2020.
所以你可以看到,还有其他一些较小的厂商。
So you can and there's other smaller player.
北京也加快了对一些较小厂商的支持,比如摩尔线程和沐曦,以应对出口管制。
Beijing have also fast tracked some smaller players like like more threads and Meta X responds to UX export controls.
你提到了字节跳动和阿里巴巴。
You talked about ByteDance and Alibaba.
他们显然是英伟达的客户,正试图尽可能利用这项技术,但受限于出口管制和国内的监管障碍。
They obviously are customers of NVIDIA, and they're trying to use that technology themselves to the extent they can actually get a get a hold of any of it, given the the export rules and then the the the regulatory hurdles domestically.
但当你与客户方的人交流时,那些参与字节跳动和阿里巴巴、试图获取这些芯片的人,他们是否因无法使用顶级的英伟达芯片来运行自己的AI产品和服务而感到沮丧?
But when you talk to people on the customer side, people involved in ByteDance and Alibaba who are trying to get these chips, are they frustrated that they can't use the best in class NVIDIA chips to operate their own AI products and services?
我会说,当然如此。
I would say certainly yes.
当我们与AI开发者和工程师交谈时,他们确实想要英伟达的芯片。
I would say absolutely when we talk to the AI developers and engineers, they want NVIDIA chips.
客户的偏好非常明确。
The customer's preference, it's crystal clear.
我们只是观察购买行为。
We just look at the buying behaviours.
今年早些时候,阿里巴巴和腾讯等这些大型科技巨头在短短三个月内合计订购了超过一百万片NVIDIA S20芯片。
By chance, Alibaba and Tencent, all these big tech giants together, order more than 1,000,000 Nvidia S20 chips in just three months earlier this year.
这大约相当于四年的供应量。
So roughly a four year supply.
因此,他们只是试图在潜在限制出台前囤积这些芯片。
So they just trying to secure them before potential restriction.
这仅仅是北京创造了一种不同的现实。
It just Beijing create a different reality.
所以我们已经提到了一些本地监管机构实施的限制。
So we already mentioned a few restrictions introduced by local regulators.
所以,你可以获得扣押。
So, you can get the detention.
因此,客户确实需要性能和生态系统。
So, customers want indeed a performance and ecosystem.
但政府实际上是在强制推行国产替代品。
But the government, it's essentially mandating their domestic boots.
我想就你最近文章中提到的这一点问你一下。
I want to ask you about this point here you made in your story recently.
你写道,华盛顿的担忧不仅在于北京将实现半导体自给自足,更在于中国将出口一套完整的替代技术栈,从而削弱美国的影响力。
You wrote that Washington's fear is not just that Beijing will achieve semiconductor self sufficiency, but that China will export an entire alternative technology stack that weakens US leverage.
你能为我们稍微解释一下这个替代技术栈吗?
Can you explain a little bit to us this alternative technology stack?
中国究竟在试图构建什么?美国又为何如此担忧?
What exactly is it that China is trying to build and what is it that The US is so fearful of?
没错。
Right.
我认为,华盛顿的担忧不仅仅局限于中国制造自己的芯片。
So Washington's concern, I would say, goes beyond just China making its own chips.
可以说,中国制造自己的芯片,反而是华盛顿较小的担忧。
Like, I would say China making its own chip may be actually the smaller worry for Washington.
真正的担忧在于,中国不仅会开发芯片,还会构建一个完整的生态系统,包括半导体、服务器、能够在这些中国芯片上高效训练和运行的AI模型、云服务、软件,甚至未来的行业技术标准。
The real fear could be China develops not just chips, but an entire ecosystem, the semiconductors, the servers, the AI models train and can be run efficiently on those Chinese chips, the cloud service, the software, even the technical standards in the future.
然后,中国可以将这个完整的体系出口到世界各地的国家。
And then China can export this complete package to countries around the world.
那么,这为什么重要呢?
So why does it matter?
因为目前,美国的影响力源于这样一个事实:如果你想获得尖端技术,就必须遵守美国的规则。
Because right now, US leverage comes from the fact that if you want cutting edge technology, you have to play by the American rules.
企业需要访问英伟达的GPU、美国的云服务以及美国的AI模型。
Companies need access to Nvidia's GPU to US cloud services to American AI models.
这实际上赋予了华盛顿巨大的地缘政治影响力。
It basically gives Washington enormous geopolitical influence.
但如果中国提供了一个并行的系统,比如华为的芯片驱动着DeepSeg模型,并运行在阿里云的基础设施上。
But if China offers a parallel system, let's say, for example, Huawei's chips powering DeepSeg models running on Alibaba's cloud infrastructure.
那么其他国家就有了第二个选择。
Now other countries have a second choice.
也许它没有美国产品那么先进,但对许多应用来说,可能已经足够好了,比如要求不高的场景。
Maybe it's not as advanced as good as the American ones, but it's probably good enough for many, like inferior applications.
对。
Right.
从客户的角度来看,如果他们能够在国内获得一切,不仅仅是芯片,还有模型、云服务,甚至构建了一个并行的生态系统,那为什么不全部在国内完成呢?
And then from the customers end, you know, if they're able to get everything domestically, not just the chips, but also the models, the cloud services, to the extent that they have built a parallel ecosystem, I mean, why not do everything domestically?
对他们来说,这可能会更容易。
It'd probably be easier for them.
是的,正是如此。
Yeah, exactly.
对于中国来说,他们可以将这套方案出售给其他国家。
And then for China, they can sell these package to other country.
他们可以把这个方案卖给其他国家,也许这些国家愿意接受一个性能足够好、成本却低得多的方案。
They can sell this to other country, maybe they have, they would be willing to accept a good enough package, which is and with much, much cheaper costs.
而且有些情况下,关键的是,它可能附带的条件更少,比如不需要与美国的外交政策保持一致。
And some maybe crucially, it sometimes can come with strings, less strings attached with like alignment with US foreign policy.
所以我会说
So I would say that
那我问你一下。
Let me ask you this then.
如果这是风险,那么这种担忧现在有多合理?风险有多大?
If that is the risk, how how, you know, how valid is that concern right now and how risky is it?
你知道,有没有证据表明中国实际上正在朝着这个平行生态系统迈进?
You know, is there evidence that China actually is marching towards that parallel ecosystem?
我会说,这在全球南方可能已经发生了。
I would say this is already happening maybe in Global South.
我们已经可以看到一些中国技术栈在东南亚、非洲和拉丁美洲的部署。
We can see already some of the Chinese tech stack deploy in Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America.
我们还可以看到,这些地区越来越多地部署了基础设施,这将改变这些国家和地区使用更便宜的AI技术栈开发AI模型和应用的方式。
And we can see increasingly infrastructure being deployed in those area that will shave different how these countries and district develop their AI models and their applications using a more cheaper AI tech stack.
Shanna,最后一个问题是。
Last question for you, Shanna.
随着事态发展,你最关注哪些方面?
What are you watching for in this story as it develops moving forward?
有很多事情。
Tons of things.
记者叹了口气说:‘天啊,阿卡什,要是我能告诉你全部就好了。’
Reporter says with a sigh, oh my gosh, Akash, if I could tell you everything.
是的。
Yes.
如果我们能花一整天的时间,我可以告诉你很多事。
If we can have like a whole day, I can tell you tons of things.
我认为与中美税率相关的最重要的两点是。
I think the two top things related to The US China tax rate.
第一,我们会密切关注中国公司。
The first, we would try to keep an eye on Chinese companies.
如果中国公司如何,或者中国公司能否
If Chinese companies how or if Chinese companies can
来
come
想出新的规避方法,以绕过美国出口管制,获取先进英伟达芯片或尖端造船设备。
up with new workaround to bypass US export control to get access to advanced Nvidia chips or cutting edge ship making equipment.
其次,我认为我们的亚洲团队也迫切希望了解,正如我们在一些报道中提到的,中国是否拥有足够用于训练AI模型的芯片;如果没有,企业是如何应对训练芯片短缺的——他们是试图在模型层面优化,还是试图获取更多走私芯片,或者在系统层面改进本地替代方案,我们正试图弄清楚他们如何应对这一问题,以便赶上美国竞争对手。
Our Asia secondly, I think our Asia team is also keen to figure out, like we mentioned in some of the story that if China has secure enough chips for training AI models, and if not, how company are tackling the training chip shortage, whether they are trying to improve it on model level or trying to access to more smuggling chips or like try to improve the local alternative on a system level, just trying to figure out how they can tackle an issue like that so that they can catch up with their US competitors.
太好了。
Great.
很好,钱德拉,很高兴你来参加我们的节目。
Well, Chandra, it is great to have you on the show.
我知道现在对你来说已经很晚了,所以我们就不多打扰,让你去休息了。
I know it's late for you, so we will let you get some sleep.
我们期待很快再次邀请你回到节目中。
And we look forward to having you back on the show very soon.
非常感谢你。
Thank you so much.
谢谢你,阿卡什。
Thank you, Akash.
很快再聊。
Talk to you soon.
好的。
Okay.
《The Information》发布了2025年假日礼品指南,其中推荐了一些 standout 产品。
The Information released its 2025 holiday gift guide, and it features some standout products.
因此,我们邀请了名单上几位创始人来到节目中,分享他们创业背后的故事。
So we invited a few of the founders from the list to come on the show to share the stories behind their businesses.
首先,来自主编杰西卡·莱森的推荐,她将一款名为《Board》的桌游列入了我们的指南。
First up is a pick from our editor in chief, Jessica Lesson, who added the board game called Board to our guide.
这是一款放在桌面上的数字游戏主机,你与家人面对面玩耍,同时仍使用实体游戏部件,将数字玩法与面对面互动融为一体。
It is a digital gaming console that sits on the table in front of you, you're playing face to face with your family, but it still has physical game pieces merging digital gameplay with in person interaction.
它并不便宜。
It's not cheap.
现在它正在打折,售价为4.99美元,但正常零售价是6.99美元。
It is on sale for $4.99 right now, but it normally retails for $6.99.
我们会聊聊这个。
We're gonna talk about that.
但将这一愿景变为现实的人,深谙融合数字与物理世界之道。
But the person bringing this vision to life knows a thing or two about blending the digital and physical worlds.
布琳·普特南曾打造过Mirror——这是一款互动式家庭健身系统,于2020年被Lululemon收购。
Brynn Putnam previously built Mirror, the interactive at home fitness system acquired by Lou Lemon in 2020.
现在加入我们的是Board的创始人兼首席执行官布琳。
Joining me now is Brynn, the founder and CEO of Board.
布琳,欢迎来到TI TV。
Brynn, welcome to TI TV.
很高兴你来到这里。
It's great to have you here.
非常感谢你们邀请我。
Thanks so much for having me.
让我们聊聊桌游的生意。
Let's talk the business of board games.
我对这个话题很期待。
I'm excited for this one.
你创建了一家健身公司。
You built a fitness company.
是什么让你想创办一家桌游公司?
What made you want to start a board game company?
其实,这跟我当时的人生阶段有关。
Really, it was where I was in my life.
我在2020年把Mirror卖给了露露柠檬,之后又留了一年在露露柠檬工作。
I sold Mirror to Lululemon in 2020, stayed on for about a year working at Lululemon.
当我退出后,我的个人生活进入了完全不同的阶段。
And then when I exited, I was in really just a different life stage personally.
我现在有两个年幼的孩子,一个两岁,一个九岁,还有三个已经成年的继子女,分别是17岁、19岁和21岁。
I had now two young kids, ages two and nine, as well as three grown step kids, 17, 19, and 21.
我们一家人一直在努力寻找能够增进联系的方式。
And we were just struggling as a family to find ways to connect.
我们要么玩《糖果乐园》这类游戏来照顾最小的孩子,要么尝试和大孩子玩电子游戏,但他们总是轻松赢我们,因为我们都跟不上现代手柄上那么多按钮的操作。
We were either playing games like Candy Land to try to accommodate the littlest kids, or we would try to play video games with the older kids and they would smoke us because none of us could keep up on modern controllers with all the buttons.
所以我觉得,一定有更好的方式能把桌游和电子游戏的优点结合起来,让人们面对面地一起玩。
So it felt like there really had to be a better way to bring the best of board games and video games together and bring people together playing face to face.
这就是Board这款游戏的由来。
And that's how Board was born.
上周感恩节你们玩了吗?
Did you play it at Thanksgiving last week?
玩了。
We did.
Board在感恩节上大受欢迎。
Board got a lot of love at Thanksgiving.
那一定是个非常有趣的感恩节。
That's a that's a that's a big must be a really fun Thanksgiving.
天啊。
Gosh.
所以我想和你聊聊这个游戏本身。
And so I wanna talk to you about the game itself.
你看。
So so look.
它就像一台放在你面前桌上的iPad。
You have it's it's like an iPad that sits on on the table in front of you.
你有实体的棋子。
You got the physical piece.
那么,我可以在棋盘上玩哪些不同类型的游戏呢?
Like, what exactly are the variations of games that I can play on the board?
是的。
Yeah.
它是一个24英寸的屏幕,装在一个精美的木制框架里,放在你的桌子上。
So it's a 24 inch screen in a beautiful wooden frame that sits on your table.
我们花了两年时间教这个框架识别物理棋子。
And what we spent two years doing is teaching the frame how to recognize physical pieces.
如果你使用普通的iPad或平板电脑,它只能识别十个手指。
So if you work with a normal iPad or tablet, it can only recognize 10 fingers.
但我们的屏幕使用嵌入式AI,不仅能检测无限数量的手指触碰设备,还能识别物理游戏棋子。
But our screen uses embedded AI to detect not just an unlimited number of fingers touching the device, but also physical game pieces.
它知道这是朝这个方向停放的宇宙飞船,或者这是正在切番茄的刀。
So it knows this is the spaceship facing this direction sitting over here, or this is the knife slicing the tomato.
这使得人们能够使用物理棋子作为控制器与数字屏幕互动。
And what it enables is people to use physical pieces as a controller to interact with the digital screen.
明白了。
Got it.
从技术上讲,这最困难的部分是什么?
And what was the hardest part about this technically?
我的意思是,我从来没想过要设计一款桌游,但你可是混合现实领域的专家。
I mean, look, I've never tried to build a board game, but you're an expert in all things sort of mixed reality here.
检测棋子或识别棋盘上是哪个棋子,这似乎是以前从未有人做到过的最难的事情吗?
It piece detecting or the board detecting what piece it is that seems to be the hardest thing that hasn't been done before?
是的。
Yeah.
所以,以前从未有人能让屏幕同时识别无限数量的手指触摸、手势以及物理对象。
So no one before has been able to have a screen that recognizes unlimited finger touches, gestures, as well as physical objects.
因此,开发这项技术花了我们好几年时间,非常具有挑战性。
So building that technology took us multiple years and was quite challenging.
但同时,我们还为首发产品阵容开发了12款原创游戏。
But also, were building 12 original games as part of our launch portfolio.
所以,任何从事娱乐行业的人应该都知道,找到乐趣是非常具有挑战性的。
So anyone who's worked in entertainment, I think, knows that finding the fun is quite challenging.
因此,我们不仅要解锁这种全新的互动玩法技术,还要确保游戏对全家人都真正有趣且吸引人。
So not only unlocking this new kind of technology for play, but also making sure that the games were really fun and engaging for the full family.
让从最小的孩子到年长的成年人都能一起玩,共同找到快乐。
So everyone from the littlest kids to the oldest grown up can play together and find joy.
我很好奇,我们谈的是好几年后的事,但你们有计划让外部开发者参与这些游戏的开发吗?
And I'm curious, and we're talking years out here, but do you plan to open the development of these games up to outside developers?
你们现在是全部自己内部开发吗?
Are you keeping it all in house right now?
你们是怎么考虑这个问题的?
How do you think about that?
平台。
Platform.
在发布后,我们非常兴奋地看到,在第一周内就有超过2500名开发者主动联系我们。
So we were so excited after launching to have over 2,500 inbounds from developers within the first week.
人们非常希望在Board上创建属于自己的实体数字体验。
People really wanting to build their own physical digital experiences on Board.
所以我们已经在这样做了。
And so we're already doing that.
开发者们已经开始制作游戏,这些游戏将陆续上架到我们的商店中。
Developers are starting to build games that will be available in 26 in our store.
我们还非常期待普通消费者能够在设备上自行创建体验。
And we're also really excited about the possibility for the average consumer to build their own experiences on device.
因此,我们真正希望打造用户生成内容(UGC)的创作工具,让Board从一个游戏主机转变为一个供所有人创建自己体验的更广泛平台。
So we really wanna build UGC creation tools so Board goes from being a gaming console to a broader platform for everyone to create their own experiences.
对。
Right.
现在它的价格是499美元。
Now, it's $499 right now.
它只是一个多月前刚发布的。
It just came out about a month ago.
现在是499美元,假期促销结束后,我认为这周晚些时候价格将涨到699美元。这里的客户是谁呢?
It's $499 Prices are going up, I think, later this week after the holiday sale ends to $699 Who is the customer here?
因为这并不便宜。
Because it's not cheap.
真正令人兴奋的是,从第一天起,客户群体就涵盖了所有人。
What's been really exciting to see is the customer really on day one has been everyone.
在第一周内,我们已经进入了除怀俄明州以外的所有州。
Within the first week, we were in every single state except for Wyoming.
怀俄明州多坚持了几天。
Wyoming held out a few extra days.
但除了怀俄明州,我们已经覆盖了所有州,并且吸引了极其多元的买家群体——从热衷于开发自己游戏的科技爱好者,到希望将它作为家庭圣诞礼物、拉近家人关系的普通父母。
But beside Wyoming, we were in every state, And we've had just an incredible range of buyers from people who are in tech excited to build their own games to really the average mom and dad who are looking at this to be the family Christmas present to bring people together.
因此,这并不是一种仅限于沿海地区的早期采用者产品。
And so it really hasn't been sort of a coastal early adopter product.
从第一天起,它就真正成为了一种大众化产品,这让我们感到非常振奋。
It's from day one, it has really been quite mass, which has been really exciting for us.
我想知道你们是如何进行市场营销的。
And I'm curious how you're approaching the marketing here.
你能谈谈哪个渠道最有效吗?
Can you talk about which channel has been most effective?
我知道才过去一个月。
I say that it's been a month, I know that.
但根据你在Mirror的经验,现在将这些经验带到这里,你们最投入的是哪个营销渠道?
But from your experience at Mirror, now bringing that here, which marketing channel are you investing most into?
你们是否大力投入直接面向消费者的营销(DTC)?
Are you leaning heavily into DTC?
还是现在必须依赖零售平台?
Or do you have to rely on retail platforms now?
你们是怎么看待这个问题的?
How do you think about that?
我们正在尝试各种方式。
We're doing a little bit of everything.
这确实是一个D2C产品。
So it is a D2C product.
你可以在我们的网站board.fun上找到它。
You can find it at our website, board.fun.
我们还在Camp开设了假日快闪店,这是一家在全国有九家门店的高端玩具店。
We also have a holiday pop up at Camp, which is a premium toy store that has nine locations nationwide,
而且你们
and you
可以在那里找到Board并进行体验。
can find board there and do a demo.
但真正令人兴奋的是,游戏的视觉效果和叙事方式真正引发了人们的共鸣。
But what's been really exciting is sort of the the visuals and the storytelling of play bringing people together has really resonated.
因此,我们只是在思考如何传播这个故事,无论是通过Twitter、Instagram还是Hacker News。
And so it's just been about where can we get that story out, be it Twitter or Instagram or on Hacker News.
通过媒体,我们的曝光渠道可谓无所不在。
It's been kind of all over the place through press.
最后一个问题,我知道你们经常被问到。
And last question for you, and I'm sure you get this a lot.
我的意思是,我没有孩子,所以你比我知道得更清楚,但我原本以为我们的目标是让孩子远离屏幕。
Mean, I thought, and I don't have kids, so you know this better than I do, but I thought the whole idea was we were trying to get kids off of screens.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,这取决于我们让屏幕去做什么。
I mean, I think that's a question of what we're asking the screen to do.
有些屏幕会把人们分开,每个人独自拿着手机或iPad,孤零零地坐在角落,心不在焉地切换不同的标签页。
So there's screens that pull us apart, everyone on their own phone or their iPad sitting in the corner in an isolated way, flipping between different tabs sort of distractedly.
而有些屏幕则能把人们聚集在一起,共同创造、协作、竞争。
And then there's a screen that brings people together to create, collaborate, compete.
这正是Board的核心所在。
And that's really what board's about.
屏幕并不是一种被动的、独立的体验。
The screen isn't a passive, independent experience.
它能创造你所关心的人之间珍贵的核心回忆。
It's something that's creating really great core memories of people you care about.
明白了。
Got it.
我很期待尝试一下,玩一局游戏。
Well, I look forward to giving it a shot and playing a game.
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布琳,感谢你参加我们的节目。
Brynn, thanks for coming on the show.
我们非常感谢你的到来。
We really appreciate it.
祝你在下一场比赛中好运,无论是什么比赛。
And good luck in your next game, whatever it is.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
好的。
Okay.
我们接下来从2025年假日礼物指南中推荐的产品,来自信息频道的电子商务记者安妮·吉安。
Our next pick from the 2025 holiday gift guide comes from the information's ecommerce reporter, Anne Gian.
这是一款名为Flighty的航班追踪应用的订阅服务,可提供关于延误、取消、登机口变更等的实时更新。
It is a subscription for Flighty, the flight tracking app that delivers real time updates on delays, cancellations, gate changes, and more.
该应用有免费版本,但若要获得更多功能,价格从每周4.99美元起。
There is a free version, but if you want more features, pricing starts at $4.99 a week.
他们还提供家庭会员和终身会员。
They also have a family and a lifetime membership.
今天来讨论这个的是Flighty的创始人兼首席执行官瑞安·琼斯。
Here to discuss that is Ryan Jones, founder and CEO of Flighty.
瑞安,欢迎来到节目。
Ryan, welcome to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
嗨。
Hi.
谢谢邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
那么,瑞安,这里的秘诀是什么?
So what's the secret sauce here, Ryan?
你们的应用程序是如何比其他公司更准确的?
How is your app so much more accurate than other companies that are out there?
现在有上百万个航班追踪应用。
There's like a million apps out there for flight tracking.
确实有几个。
There's a few, that's right.
是啊,这总是个问题。
Yeah, that's always the question.
答案通常是激励措施,一直都是这样。
The answer is kind of incentives, as it always is.
航空公司非常擅长进行交叉销售,比如让你注册他们的信用卡,或者预订餐食,所有这些他们都很在行,这也是他们的重点。
So the airlines are really good at things like upsells and getting you to sign up for their credit card, or you know, getting you to prebook your meal, all of those types of things, and that's what they focus on.
我们擅长的是尽可能快地通知你航班延误或取消的信息,这才是我们的重点。
We're really good at telling you about delays and cancellations as fast as possible, and that's what we focus on.
好的。
Okay.
这还涉及数据的综合运用。
It's also a combination of data.
你知道吗,我们会去获取每一个可能的数据源,并将它们纳入我们的模型中,一旦其中某个数据源提示有延误或问题,我们就知道该信任哪些、哪些是真实的。
You know, we we go out there and we buy every single possible data source and put those into our models, and once one of them says there's a delay or an issue, we know which ones of those to trust and which ones are true.
明白了。
Got it.
我想说一下,我这里要读一段安在我们的礼品指南中写的评论。
And I do wanna say, I'll read here an excerpt from the review that Ann made in our gift guide.
她说:最近我妈妈来看我时,Flighty 提前告诉我她的航班被改道了,甚至比机长在飞机上宣布得还早。
She said, When my mom visited me recently, Flighty let me know her aircraft had been diverted even before the pilot announced it on the plane.
所以这些数据看起来相当准确。
So the data appears to be pretty good.
我的意思是,我只是好奇,为什么之前没人发现这一点呢?
And I mean, I guess I'm just wondering, why hasn't anyone figured it out yet?
我们经常听到类似的故事,这挺有趣的。
We hear a lot of stories like that, which is funny.
我们现在已经六岁了,刚开始的时候,我们觉得这太棒了。
We're six years old at this point, and at the beginning, we loved it and found it amazing.
我的意思是,我们依然很喜欢,但现在我们已经习以为常了,这周末又发生了。
Mean, we still love it, but now we're like, yep, that happened again this weekend.
我们经常听到这种事。
We hear it constantly.
我们听说,乘客会告诉飞行员:‘哦,不,我们刚被延误了’,而飞行员却说:‘你在说什么?’
We hear, you know, we hear pilots, a passenger will tell a pilot, oh, no, we just got delayed, and the pilot will say, what are you talking about?
不,我们没有。
No, we're not.
但几分钟后,飞行员回来问:‘你怎么知道的?’
And then a few minutes later, the pilot comes back and asks, how did you know that?
对。
Right.
所以,我想说,最大的认可就是很多机组人员和飞行员已经开始使用Flydee,他们是我们最大的支持者。
So we I guess the ultimate vote of confidence is that a lot of the crew and a lot of the pilots have started using Flydee, and they're some of our biggest advocates.
所以航空公司真的在使用你们的产品?这里有没有B2B的合作?
So so the the airlines are actually using the the you're Is there a B2B deal here?
航空公司是付钱给你们吗?还是说这怎么运作?
The airlines are paying you, or how does that work?
不,他们是自掏腰包使用的。
No, they're just using it out of their own pocket.
他们发现这是了解情况最快、最准确的方式,想想看,我们一天可能飞一两次或三次,而他们一天要飞六次,而且一整周都是如此。
They've learned that this is the fastest, most accurate way to know what's going on, and if you think about it, we may take one or two or three flights a day, they take six, And and then they do it all week long.
所以他们每周要飞三十五到四十次,如果有人能告诉他们, inbound 航班延误了,或者芝加哥出了问题,不管是什么情况,到了某种程度,他们比我们更想知道这些信息。
So they're taking 35 or 40 flights, and if someone can tell them their inbound plane is delayed, or there's issues at Chicago, or whatever it may be, they want to know that even more than you and I do at a certain point.
你能解释一下这个数据的市场机制吗?
Can you just explain the data marketplace here for this data?
我的意思是,这个领域我完全没研究过。
Mean, is not a space I've studied at all.
当然。
Sure.
所以有一些公司,是收集航空公司的数据和空中交通管制的数据,然后打包出售吗?
So there are companies that, what, collect data from the airlines and the air traffic control, and then they sort of package it up and sell it?
我的意思是,你看到这个市场的价格在上涨吗?
Mean, you know, do you see prices going up in this market?
我真的没研究过这个。
Like, I've never studied it.
这是一件非常有趣的事情。
It's a fascinating thing.
你去查一下ADS-B吧。
So look up ADS B.
这是一种令人惊叹的技术,我想大概是十五年前出现的,它的原理是每架飞机每秒都会发射一些基本数据,比如位置、GPS、高度、速度之类的。
It's an incredible technology from, I wanna say, fifteen years ago, and what happens is every plane emits basic data, let's say location, GPS, altitude, speed, stuff like that, every one second.
全球各地都有天线,有些甚至是爱好者和极客放在自家后院的,他们会把这些信息传送给多家中间商,然后航空公司就会从这些中间商那里购买这些数据。
And there's antennas all over the world, literally some of them put in their backyards by enthusiasts and nerds, that, like us, that then send that information back to multiple middleware companies, and then the airlines will actually buy that from them.
所以,你可以说达美航空、联合航空和美国航空其实是从别人那里购买飞机的位置信息。
So if you wanted to, you could partly say that Delta and United and American buys their plane locations from other people.
大概有三到四家中间商公司专门做这种ADS-B数据的整合,它们与机场和航空公司合作,获取飞机起飞前的一些更早期的数据。
It it there's about three to four middleware kind of companies that do this aggregation of the ADS B data, and they work with airports and airlines to get some of the more preliminary data before the plane gets in the air.
然后,他们主要将这些数据出售给企业公司、B2B公司,比如发动机制造商或座椅制造商,这些公司试图预测明年航班数量的走势,或者直接出售给空中交通管制员。
And then largely, they sell that to enterprise companies or b two b companies or, like, engine manufacturers or seats manufacturers that are trying to predict the forecast for how many flights are gonna happen next year and or air traffic controllers themselves.
因此,这些数据通常会进入非常企业化、大型行业公司的体系中。
So a lot of times this goes into very enterprise, very kind of big industry companies.
当我们去找他们时,我们不知道自己是不是第一个,但我们对他们来说确实很不寻常,我们说:嘿,我们想购买这些数据,然后做一个极其出色的消费者应用。
And we were I don't know if we were the first, but we were abnormal to them when we came to them, and we said, hey, we wanna buy this, and just make an incredible consumer app.
我们想要的是飞行员级别的数据,因为我们用的是和飞行员相同的那套数据。
We want the pilot great data, is what we say, because it's the same data that the pilots are using.
这对他们来说是不寻常的。
And that was not normal for them.
我们必须向他们稍微解释一下,而这些行业本身并不太关心飞机将从哪个登机口起飞。
We had to educate them a little bit on it, and they didn't have things like, those industries don't care deeply about what gate the plane is gonna go out of.
他们更关心的是飞机在地面停留了多久,我们能否快速完成周转,诸如此类的事情。
They care more about how long has it been on the ground, can we get it turned around, things like that.
所以我们得帮助他们更好地理解登机口信息。
So we had to help them get better at gates.
另一个重要的事情是航班取消。
And one of the other big things was cancellations.
在新冠疫情之前,航班取消的大致流程是:每天午夜前后,航空公司会提交第二天计划取消的航班,然后在午夜左右公布。
They the way cancellations roughly worked before COVID was every night at around midnight, airlines would file what they were gonna cancel the next day, and then it would come out around midnight.
但在疫情期间,航班取消变得非常频繁且高度动态,远超以往的频率。
Well, during COVID, cancellations were happening very, very fluidly, and much more often than that.
于是我们开始构建一个能够以分钟级或小时级更新的系统,后来大家都跟上了这种做法。
And that whole, we started building a stack that could do it basically minutely or hourly, and everyone kind of caught up with that.
所以,技术推动了变革,他们有时在这些方面也变得更好了,而取消——
So, the technology forces the change, they sometimes get better at these things, and cancellation Well, is an
这挺有意思的,你们实际上把数据用在了一个并非最主流的用途上,听起来企业更多是用它来做长期决策之类的事情。
mean, it's kind of interesting how you've sort of made use of that data for a purpose that actually isn't the most popular use case, and it sounds like businesses are using it for longer term decision making and stuff like that.
我想再问你几个问题。
I want to ask you a couple of other things.
你们有一个300美元的终身套餐。
You've got a $300 lifetime plan.
这占你们收入的百分之多少?
What percent of your revenue does that make up?
这是个好问题。
That's a good question.
这是两位数。
It's double digits.
超过百分之二。
It's more than two
好的,所以你们有一些重度用户。
Okay, to so you've some power users.
我是终身制的拥护者。
I'm a lifetime proponent.
我知道这是个热门话题,我经常和商业及财务人士讨论这个。
I know it's a hot topic, and I talk with business and finance people about it all the time.
是的。
Yeah.
对我们来说,我认为这也正是我建议许多公司去做的,因为大家都看到我们成功地做到了。
For us, I think it makes what what I advise decent amount of companies on it as well, because everyone sees us doing it successfully.
他们就会问:你们是怎么做的?
They're like, what are you doing?
我倾向于这样想:无论你的年费是多少,你的客户生命周期价值至少要是年费的三倍。
The way I like to think about it is, whatever your annual price is, at a minimum, your lifetime needs to be three x times that.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而在高端情况下,它需要达到年费的五到六倍。
And at a high end, it needs to be five to six x times that.
我们的年费是60美元。
So our annual is $60.
所以我们的生命周期价值是它的五倍。
So our lifetime is five times that.
这使得那些不想处理年度费用报销、也不关心使用哪张信用卡的业务用户能够直接购买——我喜欢这个产品,我就想直接买下它。
And what it does is it gives our business users who don't wanna do the annual file expense reports, or worry about which credit card it's hitting, like just, I know I like it, I just want to buy it and get it.
这还为那些讨厌订阅的用户提供了一种摆脱订阅的方式。
And then it also gives those users who are subscription haters, if you will, a way to get out of that.
我只是把它定价在一个对我们也有价值的水平上。
I just It's ask priced to a point where it's valuable for us too.
应用定价真是个有趣的话题,因为从某种意义上说,它有点随意,对吧?
App pricing is such an interesting topic though, because, I mean, in some sense, it's a little arbitrary, right?
你其实可以给它定任何价格。
You could really put any price on it.
我的意思是,你正在摇头,我得说,我从未开发过应用,也从未做过这样的决定。
I mean, and you're shaking your head, look, I should say I've never developed an app, I've never made the decision.
这很相似。
It's similar
和其他所有东西都一样。
to everything else.
比如,信息的定价是多少?
Like, what's the information's pricing?
这很难。
It's hard.
所以你
So you
实际上,你是依赖于这些计算的,你会基于每个用户进行一些计算,知道数据成本是多少,然后据此定价。
actually, you do rely it on, you basically do some calculations here on, you know, per user, this is how much the data costs, we have to price it accordingly.
当然,当然,是的。
Of course, of course, yep.
是的,我们采用按用户计费的方式,同时考虑该用户的终身价值,确保对公司和用户都有利。
Yeah, we do per user pricing, and then the lifetime value of that user, and make sure that it's good for the company and the user.
明白了。
Got it.
最后一个问题,你一个月坐多少次飞机?
Last question for you, how many flights do you take in a month?
一个月?
In a month?
天啊,没那么多。
Oh man, not that many.
大概三到五次。
Maybe three to five.
我们一些更有趣的用户,比如机组人员之类的。
Some of our more interesting users, we have like, obviously, have the crew and all those people.
我们有几个出名的人,一生飞行了上千万英里。
We have a couple of the infamous people that are doing, you know, ten, twenty million miles in their life.
我们目前有一个很有趣的人,正努力成为最快达到四百万英里累积里程的人,我认为他三年内就能达成。
One of our more interesting guys right now is trying to be the fastest person ever to hit 4,000,000 lifetime miles, and I think he's on track to do it in, three years.
所以他每年飞行一百三十万英里。
So he's doing 1,300,000 miles.
相当于每年连续在空中待三个月左右。
It's like it's something like three months in the air straight every year.
太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
太好了。
Great.
听起来确实很惨,但佩服这位老兄。
Well, sounds honestly miserable, but power to that guy.
佩服这位老兄。
Power to that guy.
做你想做的事。
Do what you want.
谢谢你来参加,瑞安。
Well, I appreciate you coming on, Ryan.
这是一个很棒的应用,节日快乐。
It's a great app, and happy holidays.
谢谢你的到来。
Thanks for coming on.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我很感激。
I appreciate it.
谢谢大家的推荐。
Thanks for y'all's recommendation.
好的。
Okay.
今天2025年礼品指南的压轴推荐来自我们的活动制作经理艾米丽,推荐的是Birdies Starling乐福鞋,售价每双160美元。
Our final pick from today's 2025 gift guide spotlight comes from Emily our events production manager, and it is the Birdies Starling Loafer retailing at a $160 a pair.
Birdies是一个主打时尚与日常舒适性的高端鞋履品牌。
Birdies is a premium footwear brand built around stylish and everyday comfort.
他们提供平底鞋、拖鞋、运动鞋和凉鞋。
They have flats, slides, sneakers, and sandals.
现在加入我们的是Birdies的联合创始人兼首席执行官比安卡·盖茨。
Joining me now is Bianca Gates, cofounder and CEO of Birdies.
比安卡,欢迎来到TI TV。
Bianca, welcome to TI TV.
很高兴你来这里。
It's great to have you here.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
我的天,今天能上这儿真是太棒了。
I mean, what a day to be on here.
今天是网络星期一。
It's Cyber Monday.
这太令人兴奋了。
It's exciting.
我们一早就忙起来了。
It's been an early morning for us already.
今天对我们来说是重要的一天。
Big day for us.
嗯,我能想象。
I well, I can imagine.
我知道节假日的重要性。
I know how I know how important holiday season is.
看。
Look.
好吧,我们简要聊聊节假日,然后谈谈产品。
I well, let's talk about the holiday season briefly, then we'll talk about the product.
你知道,我很好奇。
You know, I am curious.
你已经做这个好几年了。
You've been at this for a couple years now.
你能谈谈这些年来你们为节假日做准备的变化吗?你们具体在准备节假日时做了哪些不同的事情?
Can you talk a little bit about how your preparation for the holiday season has changed over the years and how you actually assemble your what do you guys do differently to prepare for the holiday season?
实际情况是怎样的?
What does it look like on the ground?
每年都不一样,取决于宏观经济环境、消费者情绪以及流行趋势。
It changes every year, depending on the macroeconomic climate, depending on consumer sentiment, depending on what's trending.
你知道,我们得提前一年就确定假日商品的采购计划。
You know, we have to place our buys for holiday about a year in advance.
所以我们得时刻关注市场动态,弄清楚正在发生什么。
So we are, you know, ears to the ground trying to figure out what's happening.
今年是个非常不寻常的年份。
This year was a very unusual year.
正如你可能知道的,三月份关于关税的讨论很多,导致了剧烈的波动。
As you might know, there was a lot of conversation around tariffs in March, and that where there was like a whiplash effect.
有一天,我们大量采购库存。
You know, there was one day where we're buying a lot of inventory.
第二天,我们就不买了。
The next day, we're not.
再下一天,我们暂停采购。
Next day, we're pausing.
再下一天,我们就把工厂迁往海外的其他地区。
Next day, we're moving factories to a different area overseas.
然后我们回到你实际上需要下订单的时候。
Then we went back the when you're actually you have to place the orders then.
完全正确。
Totally.
那么,哪些产品要多订,我们在哪里加大投入?
And so, like, how many of which ones and where do we double down?
我们该怎么做?
What do we do?
关税对消费者会有什么影响?
What's the tariff impact gonna be on the consumer?
你知道,我们的利润率最高的地方在哪里?
You know, where do we have the deepest margins?
所以我们在哪里大力投资?
So where do we invest heavily there?
在利润率较低的产品上,我们可能不该投资哪里?
Where do we maybe not invest in product where we have lower margins?
我的意思是,那一年的这个时候真是疯狂。
I mean, it was it was a crazy time of year.
我想说,最大的变化就是出现了巨大的反转。
And I would say the biggest headline is it was a big whiplash.
当时没有任何确定性,每天的情况都在变化,直到最后我们不得不在四月初做出决定,并坚持下去。
There was no certainty, and we were like day to day things were changing until ultimately we just had to make a decision at in around early April and live by that decision.
因此,我们今年以稍微不同的方式处理了这个问题。
And so we tackled this a little bit differently this year.
这是我们第一年决定推出购赠活动。
This was the first year we we decided to do a gift with purchase.
我们不确定六个月到七个月后消费者的反应会如何。
We were unsure of what consumer sentiment was gonna be six, seven months later.
所以我们推出了Birdie's酒饰。
So we launched a Birdie's wine charm.
在黑色星期五到网络星期一期间,每购买一个Birdie's产品,就能免费获得一个赠品。
So you get a free gift for purchase for every for every Birdie's that you buy Black Friday through Cyber Monday.
我们专注于款待和聚会的乐趣,因此这一年中最适合为心爱的人倒上一杯葡萄酒,戴上Birdie's戒指 charms,强化我们关于聚会、拖鞋和时尚平底鞋的营销信息,并激励她选择我们的产品而非竞争对手。
We're all about the love of hosting and entertaining, so it's the perfect time of year to pour your your loved one a glass of wine, have a a Birdie's ring charm, reinforce our marketing message of hosting and slippers and stylish flats, and incentivizing her to buy our product versus our competitors.
我们不希望陷入降价竞争的泥潭。
And we did not want to get into a race to the bottom with discounting.
我们看到很多竞争对手早在两周前就开始了大幅打折,折扣高达三成、四成甚至五成。
We saw a lot of our competitors, you know, early discounting, thirty, forty, 50% off two weeks ago.
我们不想卷入这场价格战。
We did not want to get into that battle.
因此,我们选择了相反的策略:为顾客提供超越产品本身的附加价值。
So we went the opposite way, which is giving her more value than the actual product.
抱歉,澄清一下,这是因为你们理论上库存更充足,所以想降低库存成本,对吧?
And sorry, just to clarify here, so this is because you conceivably had more supply and you wanted to sort of get you know, lower your inventory costs essentially.
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
没错。
Exactly.
明白了。
Got it.
我们下了一些大注,还特别为今天——黑色星期一——打造了一个完全出人意料的惊喜时刻。
We placed some big bets, and we also placed a big bet in making something just completely a surprise and delight moment for today, Cyber Monday.
今天我们推出了一款过去几周都没有的舒适系列。
We launched a cozy collection today that we hadn't had in the last few weeks.
所以我认为今年我们的核心主题就是惊喜与愉悦。
And so I think the headline for us this year was surprise and delight.
给她一些额外的东西,帮助我们清库存,提醒她Birdies的价值,那些鞋子附带的小小惊喜与魔力。
Give her something extra to help us move inventory, to remind her of the the value of Birdies, the little extra, the magic that comes with the shoes.
而且,说实话,这对我们的效果非常好。
And, you know, we it's been a very successful strategy for us.
我想谈谈你们是如何应对不同营销渠道的。
I want to talk about how you are approaching the different marketing channels.
这是我们在这里经常讨论的一个话题,比如Facebook和Instagram广告的效果,以及它们与联盟营销的比较和差异。
It's something we talk a lot here about on the information, you know, the the effectiveness of, you know, Facebook and Instagram advertising, for example, how that compares and contrasts with affiliate marketing.
你显然要在D2C和通过平台销售之间做出选择。
You obviously have the decision between D2C and then selling through the platforms.
谈谈你如何看待你的营销策略,以及目前哪种渠道的投资回报率最高。
Talk a little bit about how you think about your marketing strategy and what avenue is still the highest ROI for you.
是的。
Yeah.
自从我们起步以来的过去十年里,发生了太多变化。
So much has changed in the last ten years since we started.
我的意思是,我们大力押注直接面向消费者的模式,绕过了中间商。
I mean, you know, we placed a big bet on direct to consumer, pushing out the middleman.
在Meta这样的平台上做广告成本非常低。
It was very cost efficient to advertise on platforms like Meta.
我认为,疫情之后,我们的行业发生了巨大变化。
And I would say post COVID, so much in our in our industry changed.
Meta 的广告成本越来越高。
Meta became increasingly more expensive.
批发又成为了一种可行的策略,即到消费者所在的地方去。
Wholesale became, you know, a a viable strategy again and and being where the consumer is.
亚马逊在过去几年里,在我们的生态系统中迅速崛起。
Amazon became just exploded in the last few years within, you know, our ecosystem.
因此,我们一直在持续调整和转型。
And so we've continued to evolve and and pivot.
我想说,我们今年
I would say we've made
一个
a
做出了更大的努力,加大了对上层营销的投入,提醒消费者为什么选择 Birdies,为什么
bigger effort this year and placed a bigger investment in upper funnel marketing, just reminding the consumer of the value of why, why Birdies, why
它是
It was
本质上就是品牌营销。
like brand brand marketing essentially.
品牌营销,我认为在过去几年里,我们过于依赖低转化漏斗的广告和那些指标,比如LTV与CAC的比率。
Brand marketing, which I think for the last few years, you know, we were we were so reliant on lower funnel conversion ads and those metrics, those KPI, LTV to CAC metrics.
我的意思是,我们当时深陷其中,以至于
I mean, were so in the weeds with that that
对。
Right.
最终,我们决定必须回归基本,再次提醒消费者我们品牌的价值,为什么我们的标志出现在她的鞋子上很重要,为什么我们能对产品收取这样的价格。
Ultimately, we decided we had to just, like, go back to the basics again and remind her of the value of our brand, why our logo matters on her shoes, you know, why we'd why we command the price point that we we charge for our product.
所以,我们大约一个月前推出了一项名为“She's Magic”的大型营销活动。
And so we launched a big marketing campaign about a month ago called She's Magic.
这是一段一分钟的视频,展示了她一天中那些忙碌、令人沮丧的时刻,而当她穿上Birdies时,突然意识到,在这个美好的世界里,一切都会变得更好。
It's a it's a one minute video on the moments throughout her day where they could be, you know, very busy frustrating moments that suddenly wearing birdies, she's reminded that, you know, everything is better in the What world of
关于
about
网红营销和联盟链接呢?
influencer marketing and affiliate links?
这对你的业务帮助很大吗,还是最近效果下降了?
Has that been a big boon for your business, or has the effectiveness of that declined recently?
你知道吗,不幸的是,现在所有这些都得做。
You know, it's it's all of the above now, unfortunately.
我认为,如今在零售行业,你必须有点像一家媒体公司。
I think to be in the retail world these days, you have to be a little bit of a media company.
你不能只依赖某一个渠道了。
You you can't it's not it's not just, you know, one channel anymore.
你得样样都有一点。
You have to have a little bit of everything.
对我们来说,联盟营销仍然非常有效。
Affiliate for us still works very well.
对我们来说,网红营销也仍然非常有效。
Influencer marketing for us still works very well.
你知道,这些平台现在已经变得越来越饱和了。
It's you know, the platforms have gotten more saturated.
那么,你如何在如今比以往任何时候都更严重的信息过载中脱颖而出呢?
So how do you break through the clutter even more now than ever before?
我认为有必要稍微回归一下基本功。
And I do think a little bit of going back to basics.
你知道,我们现在入驻了亚马逊。
You know, we're now on Amazon.
我们现在已经入驻了诺德斯特龙。
We're we're now on Nordstrom.
我们刚刚在迪拉德斯上线了,所以我们正努力拓展渠道,让顾客不仅仅通过手机和网红与我们互动时才能找到我们。
We're now we just launched on Dillard's, and so we are really trying to diversify where she can find us more than just, you know, speaking with her on on just on her mobile device and through influencers.
对。
Right.
最后一个问题。
Last question for you.
当你创办这家公司时,鞋子市场肯定是竞争最激烈的市场之一。
When you started this company, I mean, shoes must be the most saturated market out there.
也许仅次于航班追踪应用,没错。
Maybe second to flight tracking apps, which Right.
在我们之前的环节中。
On our previous segment.
我的意思是,那种应用也有数百万个。
I mean, there's millions of those too.
但是什么让你决定要创办一家鞋类公司,而不是其他任何公司呢?
But what made you want to start a shoe company, of all companies?
天哪。
Oh my gosh.
就是,你知道的,纯粹是疯狂。
Just, you know, just insanity.
我在Facebook工作了很多年,非常喜欢在家招待朋友和家人。
I was at Facebook for many years and I loved entertaining friends and family at home.
我注意到一个没人解决的空白领域,那就是适合居家穿着的时尚平底鞋。
And I noticed this white space that nobody had been solving, which is stylish flats for the the home.
拖鞋一直与卧室、浴室联系在一起,而鞋子则与家外活动联系在一起。
Slippers were synonymous with bedroom bathroom, and shoes were synonymous with outside of your home.
但生活中最神奇的时刻发生在客厅、卧室和厨房,而这些时刻却缺乏合适的鞋履。
But the most magical part of life happens in the living room bedroom kitchen, and there was not footwear for those moments.
于是我想到,鞋子已经制造了几百年了。
And so I thought, you know, shoes have been made for hundreds of years.
这能有多难呢?
How hard could this be?
当时没意识到,进入这个行业的门槛其实非常高。
Not realizing, you know, the bury of entry is is very tough.
要创办这家公司,你需要大量的资金。
You need a lot of money to be able to start this company.
十年过去了,我们仍在坚持奋斗。
Here we are ten years later, and we're still we're still fighting the good fight.
很好。
Great.
谢谢你的到来。
Well, thanks for coming on.
非常感谢。
Really appreciate it.
我很钦佩你敢于进入鞋类市场,并且显然已经取得了一些成功。
Admire the fact that you've taken on the shoe market, and you've obviously had some success in it.
感谢你前来做客,祝你节日快乐。
We appreciate you coming on, and happy holidays.
太棒了。
Wonderful.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
你也是。
You as well.
再见。
Bye bye.
好的。
Okay.
好了,今天的节目就到这里。
Well, that does it for today's show.
在结束之前,我们想听听你们的意见。
Before we wrap up, we want to hear from you.
我们想知道你们喜欢节目的哪些方面,希望看到更多什么内容,以及想听到哪些嘉宾的分享。
We wanna know what you like about the show, what you want more of, and who you want to hear more from.
请给我发邮件,邮箱是 akash@theinformation.com,主题写上“comments”。
So send me an email, akash@theinformation.com, with the subject line comments.
告诉我你们的反馈。
Let me know your feedback.
我会亲自回复你们。
I will personally get back to you.
提醒一下,我们每周一至周五上午10点(太平洋时间),下午1点(东部时间)在此直播。
A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM eastern.
我要感谢本次节目的冠名赞助商亚马逊云服务,也感谢您的收看。
I wanna thank Amazon Web Services who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I wanna thank you for tuning in.
我们非常感谢您的观看。
We really do appreciate your viewership.
我已经迫不及待期待明天的下一期节目了。
I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.
祝您余下的网络星期一愉快。
Have a great rest of your Cyber Monday.
暂时再见。
Bye bye for now.
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