中国限制英伟达H200，Meta巨额计算投入与苹果谷歌合作 | 2026年1月13日

欢迎各位收看《信息》公司的TI TV。

Welcome everyone to The Information's TI TV.

我是阿卡什·帕什里塔。

My name is Akash Pashritsha.

今天是1月13日，星期二。

It is Tuesday, January 13.

我们从亚洲分社获得了一条突发新闻。

We have a breaking story out of our Asia Bureau.

《信息》独家报道，中国正在将英伟达芯片的采购限制在特殊情况下。

The information has exclusive reporting that China is restricting NVIDIA chip purchases to special circumstances.

我们稍后将为您带来更多关于这条新闻的详情。

We'll have more on that story in just a second.

我们还将深入解析Meta新推出的Meta计算计划，该计划旨在扩大其数据中心规模。

We're also breaking down Meta's big new Meta compute initiative aimed at scaling its data center footprint.

我们邀请了一位数据中心专家上节目，来讨论这一话题。

We have a data center expert coming on the show to talk about that.

接下来，我们将与我们的谷歌和苹果记者进行对话，讨论这两家公司达成的里程碑式合作，该合作将把谷歌的Gemini引入Siri的新版本中。

We'll then shift to a conversation with our Google and Apple reporters about the landmark partnership between those two companies that will bring Google's Gemini into new versions of Siri.

我还会邀请一位交易专家——Brex的首席业务官，来谈谈他对这些合作的看法。

I'm also bringing on a deal making expert, the chief business officer at Brex, to get his take on all of these collaborations.

最后，我们将以今天发布的另一则报道收尾，内容是谷歌如何不遗余力地为其迅速扩张的数据中心建设争取足够的电力。

And finally, we will wrap with another story that we published today about how Google is going to great lengths to secure enough power for its rapidly expanding data center build out.

这是一期内容丰富的节目，让我们马上开始。

It is a big show, so let's get right on into it.

《The Information》独家报道了中国正在将英伟达芯片的采购限制在特殊情况下，我邀请我们的联合执行主编马丁·皮尔斯来为大家详细解读。

The Information published exclusive reporting that China is restricting NVIDIA chip purchases to special circumstances, I want to bring on our co executive editor, Martin Pierce, to break it all down.

马丁，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Martin, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

嘿，早上好，阿卡什。

Hey, good morning Akash.

所以我们收到了来自我们亚洲分社的这份报告。

So we saw this report coming out of our Asia bureau.

我们知道了什么？

What do we know?

有什么新闻？

What's the news?

我的亚洲同事们报告称，中国政府本周与一些科技公司会面，并告知它们只有在特殊情况下才会批准购买H200芯片，公司只有在绝对必要时才应考虑购买这些芯片。

Well, what my colleagues in Asia have reported is that the Chinese government met with some tech companies this week and has told them that they will only approve the purchases of the H200 chips under special circumstances and that the company should only consider buying the chips if it's absolutely necessary.

但这一点究竟意味着什么还不太清楚。

Now, what that means is not very clear.

他们确实表示会批准大学的采购，这表明他们允许此类购买，但他们并不希望企业常规性地购买这些芯片。

They did indicate that they would approve purchases by universities, which suggests that they will allow them, but they really don't want the companies to be buying them as a matter of course.

这对英伟达来说是个坏消息，因为它原本希望特朗普表示将批准英伟达出口这些芯片，这似乎预示着英伟达可能重新进入中国——这对他们而言是一个非常重要的市场。

And that's bad news for Nvidia, which had been hoping the fact that Trump had said he would approve NVIDIA to export these chips, that gave a sign that NVIDIA might be able to get back into China, which is a very important market for them.

我想对于中国那些试图获取最新最强大英伟达芯片的客户来说，这也不是什么好消息，对吧？

And I guess it's also not that great for customers in China, the businesses that are trying to get the latest and greatest NVIDIA chips, right?

没错。

That's right.

像阿里巴巴和字节跳动这样的公司需要这些芯片，因为中国政府希望它们购买的国产芯片在训练人工智能模型方面不如英伟达的芯片。

The companies like Alibaba and ByteDance need these chips because the locally made chips that the government wants them to buy are not as good in training the AI models as NVIDIA's chips are.

所以这就是问题所在。

So that is the problem.

当我遇到这样一个变化如此迅速的故事时，我不禁想，这些细节，好吧，它们今天就是这样，但一周后情况可能会改变。

And I wonder when you have a story like this that is changing so quickly and the details, look, they are what they are today, a week from now things might change.

作为这里的新闻编辑室负责人，当你想到美国与中国在人工智能领域的竞争时，有哪些更广泛的问题浮现在你脑海中？

What are the broader questions around The US China AI race that come to mind for you leading a newsroom here?

你一语中的。

Well, you've hit the nail on the head.

我们上周报道说，政府表示将谨慎决定是否批准采购，而现在他们的立场正在变得更加强硬。

We reported last week that the government was indicating that they were going to be very careful in whether they would approve the purchases and they've begun to harden their position.

我们的报道指出，由于政府的表述有些模糊，这在一定程度上让人觉得他们可能会随着时间推移放宽这些限制。

Our story says that because government was a little vague, it sort of opened the door to the idea that they might relax these restrictions over time.

这确实取决于两国政府之间的关系。

It really does depend on relations between the governments.

我们上周报道过，有人猜测特朗普在委内瑞拉的举动可能激怒了中国，而中国从委内瑞拉购买了大量石油，因此中国可能因此加强对英伟达芯片的限制。

We had reported last week there was some speculation that Trump's moves in Venezuela might have annoyed China, which buys much of its oil from there, and that China might have been responding to that by clamping down on Nvidia chips.

所以我们关注的问题显然是，哪些因素在影响政府决策，以及接下来可能发生什么。

So the questions that we look for is obviously we're trying to track what is influencing the government and what could happen next.

我想问你另一个今天和本周备受关注的故事。

I want to ask you about another story that has been making headlines today and this week.

《纽约时报》报道，Meta计划将其现实实验室部门的员工削减约10%。

The New York Times reported that Meta is going to cut about 10% of its staff in its Reality Labs group.

他们表示，部分员工可能会调往可穿戴设备部门。

They said some of those people might go to the wearables group.

我们还收到了彭博社的报道，称Meta可能将Ray-Ban智能眼镜的产量翻倍。

Then we also had this report from Bloomberg that Meta could double its Ray Ban glasses output.

我们正看到一种焦点的转移，或许正从现实实验室转向可穿戴设备。

We're seeing sort of a shifting focus here, maybe away from Reality Labs, more towards wearables.

如果我们暂时只讨论Reality Labs，我们在《The Information》上对此已有大量报道。

If we just stick with Reality Labs here for a second, we've written about this extensively at The Information.

我的意思是，在你看来，这仅仅是一次小规模的重组吗？

I mean, is this just a minor restructuring in your view?

这是Reality Labs走向终结的开始吗？

Is it the beginning of the end for Reality Labs?

不，不，不。

No, no, no.

我认为可穿戴设备属于Reality Labs的一部分。

I think that the wearables is in Reality Labs.

认为

Think that

Ray-Ban产量的增加表明，他们正在将重点放在真正畅销的产品上，并试图提升产能。

the Ray Ban increase is a sign that they are focusing more on the product that has actually sold well and they're trying to increase capacity.

他们最近不得不在英国限制这些眼镜的销售，因为产能不足。

They had to recently restrict sales of those glasses in Britain because they didn't have enough production of them.

所以我认为他们的意思是，我们不会再像过去五年那样在这些非常前沿的元宇宙技术上投入大量资金。

So I think what they're saying is we're not going to invest as much in these very futuristic metaverse technologies, which they've spent a fortune on over the last five years.

相反，我们将大力提升眼镜业务，因为它们在人工智能中具有实际作用。

And instead, we're going to ramp up the glasses, which have a real role in AI.

扎克伯格认为，而且他并非唯一这么想的人，未来人们将通过可穿戴设备与人工智能互动。

Think Zuckerberg believes, and he's not the only one, that AI in the future, people will interact with it using wearables.

所以我认为他们只是在调整重点。

So I think that they're just refining the focus.

我的意思是，Reality Labs 一直是个巨大的资金黑洞，他们现在正试图控制支出，因为他们还在人工智能开发上花费巨资。

Mean, Reality Labs has been a huge money pit and they're trying to rein that in because they're also spending a fortune on AI development.

对。

Right.

所以这实际上是他们大力押注于真正畅销的产品，并顺应市场趋势。

So this is really them doubling down on what is selling essentially and going to where the market is taking them.

明白了。

Got it.

谢谢您澄清这一点。

Well, thank you for clarifying that.

这些细微差别有时我们在节目中会忽略，但非常感谢您来到节目，帮助我们理解这一切。

These are the nuances that sometimes we miss here on the show, but we are grateful to have you on to help us make sense of it all.

这位是我们在《The Information》的联合执行主编马丁·皮尔斯。

That is Martin Pearce, our co executive editor here at The Information.

马克·扎克伯格昨天在另一个领域也发布了重大消息，宣布了一项名为MetaCompute的新计划。

Mark Zuckerberg made big news yesterday in another sphere as well, announcing a new initiative called MetaCompute.

他表示，公司将在未来十年内建设数万吉瓦的数据中心计算能力，并最终建设数百万吉瓦。

He said the company would build tens of thousands of gigawatts of data center compute capacity over the next ten years, and eventually will build hundreds of gigawatts.

Meta刚刚任命的总裁兼副主席迪娜·鲍威尔·麦科马克将与其他Meta高管共同监督这一计划。

Dina Powell McCormack, who Meta just tapped to be president and vice chairman, will help oversee the initiative along with other Meta executives.

我想邀请数据中心管理公司DataBank的首席执行官劳尔·马丁尼克，帮助我们理解Meta的新计算计划。

I want to bring on Raul Martinique, CEO of data center management company, DataBank, to help us make sense of Meta's new compute initiative.

劳尔，欢迎来到节目。

Raul, welcome to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

能来这里真的很棒。

It's great to be here.

我一直很想和一位深度参与数据中心领域的人聊聊，帮我们理解这些超大规模科技公司和Meta的重磅公告意味着什么。

So I've been dying to talk to someone who is deeply integrated into the data center story to help us make sense of what these big announcements from hyperscaler tech companies and Meta mean.

你们圈子里的人对Meta昨天宣布的‘未来十年将建设数百吉瓦’这一消息有何反应？

How are people in your orbit reacting to the announcement yesterday from Meta declaring, Hey, we're on a ten year journey now, and hundreds of gigawatts are coming?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，这不过是众多类似公告中的一个。

Well, look, it's one of many announcements like that.

显然，去年早些时候我们还听到了Stargate的公告，当时看起来简直天文数字，高达5000亿美元。

Obviously, earlier last year we had the Stargate announcement, right, which at the time seemed to be, you know, astronomical, you know, 500,000,000,000.

现在我们也有这样的公告，其他人也说过类似的话。

And now we have, announcements like this and others have also said that.

所以，从根本上说，显然为了支持这些人工智能努力，数据中心的建设正在迎来巨大热潮，对吧？

So I mean fundamentally there is obviously a big boom in terms of building data center capacity to support these artificial intelligence efforts, right?

有几点需要注意。

Couple things to remember.

我的意思是，这个公告其实只是一篇推文帖子，所以没有太多细节。

I mean, this announcement really was, as you know, it was a thread post, so there wasn't a lot of details.

它真的

It's really

表明了我们将在长期内投资于产能。

an indication that, hey, we are gonna invest in capacity over the long term.

而‘长期’才是这里的关键词，因为数据中心不可能在一个季度或一年内建成。

And long term is really the operative word here because data centers, they just don't get built in a quarter or a year.

尤其是这种规模的数据中心，实际上需要数年时间才能建成，对吧？

And especially at this scale, it actually takes years to build these things, right?

因此，本周早些时候，Meta在核能方面发布了公告，承诺向几家初创核能公司如Oclo和TerraPower，以及现有的核电厂Vistra提供支持。

So earlier this week Meta made an announcement on the nuclear power side where they made a number of commitments to some of these startup nuclear power companies, Oclo and TerraPower, plus some existing nuclear power plants with Vistra.

而这同样是一个长期的信号。

And that, again, is a long term indication.

所以，我的看法是，这只是一个公告。

So look, my view is that it's an announcement.

Meta显然已经进行了大量投资，最近在路易斯安那州与一家名为Blue Owl的公司合作，建设一个2.2吉瓦的数据中心园区。

Meta's obviously made some big investments, most recently in Louisiana where they're building a 2.2 gigawatt data center campus there in partnership with a group called Blue Owl.

像这样的项目，至少要两年后才能看到实际产能，对吧？

You know, something like that, it's not going to see capacity till two years from now, right?

所以这些都属于

So these are kind of

长期，这是一个漫长的过程。

long It's a long time a waste.

我的意思是，你刚才提到这一点，但扎克伯格昨天所谈论的规模，与他们现有的数据中心规模相比如何？

I mean, is And really just the I mean, you hinted that here, but how does the scale of what Zuckerberg is talking about yesterday, how does that compare to their existing footprint in terms of data centers?

哦，会是10倍、15倍，对吧？

Oh, it would be a 10x, 15x, right?

为了让你有个概念，就在2023年这场AI热潮开始前，全球的数据中心容量大约为35吉瓦，其中一半在美国。

So to give you some perspective, right before this AI craze started in 2023, the world had about, call it 35 gigawatts of data center capacity, with half of it in The US.

在过去的几年里，我们见证了该领域创纪录的‘吸收’速度。

Over the last couple of years, we've seen record, as we call it, absorption in the space.

去年，估计新增了约10吉瓦。

Last year, the estimate's about 10 gigawatts.

所以目前全球总容量可能在50到60吉瓦之间。

So we're probably in the 50 to 60 gigawatt on a global basis.

很难准确追踪，因为相关公告实在太多了。

It's hard to keep track because there's so many announcements.

而其中大约一半仍位于美国。

And with, again, about half of that being in The US.

所以，如果你说要开发数百吉瓦的容量，那相比我们现在拥有的规模，简直是数量级上的提升。

So obviously if you're saying you're going to develop hundreds of gigawatts, well that's orders of magnitude more than what we have today.

但我觉得我们得退一步想想，好吧，这些算力实际上会用在什么地方？

But I think we have to step back and say, Okay, what is actually this capacity going to be used for?

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我们最终都清楚AI的现状，对吧？

I mean, ultimately, we know the state of AI, right?

我们有一批公司，比如OpenAI、Anthropic和Mistral，正在产生收入。

We have a bunch of companies like OpenAI, Anthropic and Mistral generating revenue.

但这些收入数字相对有限，尤其是与所需投资规模相比时。

But these revenue numbers are modest, especially when you compare it to the size of the investments required.

所以我认为我们需要深呼吸一下，观察未来十二到十八个月里事情会如何发展，看看这项技术的变现方式如何显现。

So I think we need to take a deep breath and see how this plays out over the next twelve to eighteen months, see how the monetization of this technology emerges.

然后我认为，这种变现最终必须与这些投资相匹配。

And then I think that monetization will ultimately have to merge with these investments.

因为显然，我们不希望投入过多资金到一个收入无法跟上需求的领域，毕竟我们在2000年已经看过这部电影了。

Because obviously what we don't want is to have too much investment go into an area where the revenue can't keep up with it because we've seen that film before in 2000.

你提到了一个很好的观点，那就是这些数据中心究竟会被用来做什么？

You hit on a good point here, which is that what are these data centers going to get used for?

我一直在思考的一点是，Meta 当然有其广告业务。

One of the things I've been thinking about is Meta has, of course, its ads business.

我们在这档节目中曾稍微讨论过，Meta 可以用 AI 实现个人超级智能以及一些更长期的布局。

And we've talked a little bit on this show about Meta can use its AI for personal super intelligence and some of its more longer term bets.

但与此同时，它还有广告业务，而广告业务完全可以充分利用 AI，这对其而言是一项利润丰厚的业务。

But then it also has this ad business that can make a lot of use of AI in what is very much a profitable business for them.

你认为这家公司正在建设的这些数据中心，是否必须全部用于那些充满未知的远大目标，而需求却无法得到保障？

To what extent do you think these data centers that the company is building, does it have to be all moonshot bets that the demand is sort of accounted for?

还是说，广告业务以及广告业务的增长，本身就足以支撑他们如此大规模地建设数据中心？

Or is the ads business and the growth of an ads business, I mean, that warrant a data center built out at all the way they're doing it?

没错，这一点非常好，因为当我们谈论 AI 时，往往很少深入解释其市场策略，而这些大型企业，尤其是超大规模云服务商和 Meta，它们在 AI 上都有不同的战略。

Yeah, that's a great point because when we talk about AI, we tend to not explain too much the go to market strategy and that these large players, especially the hyperscalers and Meta, they all have different strategies around AI.

你说得完全对。

You're absolutely right.

对于Meta来说，我看到他们的投资集中在两个领域。

In the case of Meta, I see their investments happening in two areas.

扎克伯格已经接受过几次采访，谈到了这一点。

And Zuckerberg's given a couple interviews where he's talked about this.

他们的广告业务非常出色，对吧？

I mean, they have an incredible ad business, right?

毫无疑问，机器学习以前就在帮助他们，现在大语言模型和生成式AI也在推动他们在广告业务上获得更多收入。

There's no doubt machine learning before that, now LLMs, generative AI is helping them generate more revenue on the advertising side.

因此，他们将在这一领域进行投资。

So they're gonna make investments there.

你之前的嘉宾谈到了Reality Labs。

Your previous guest was talking about Reality Labs.

显然，我们知道Meta对元宇宙下了巨大的赌注，但这一领域至今并未取得成功。

And obviously we know Meta's made a huge bet on the metaverse, which really hasn't panned out there.

因此，他们还有其他一些长期投资，希望将这项技术应用于代理式AI，或通过WhatsApp、Reality Labs和元宇宙等途径实现商业化。

So there's other of these kind of long term investments where they want to apply this technology towards agentic AI or trying to monetize what they have with WhatsApp or through Reality Labs and the metaverse and things like that.

因此，这些是更具投机性的投资，但毫无疑问，其中很大一部分是为了推动他们自身的业务增长。

So those are the ones that are more speculative, but there's no doubt that a big part of this is about just growing their organic business.

这一点已被他们的业绩记录所证明，这是一项不错的投资。

That, as proven by their track record, that's a good investment.

我想问问你，建设如此规模的数据中心会带来哪些风险？

I want to ask you about the risks that come with a data center build out of this scale?

在这里，我谈的不只是Meta，而是所有这些科技公司，无论大小，无论是否盈利，都在如此迅速地建设这些数据中心。

And here, I'm talking not just about Meta, I'm talking about all of these tech companies, big and small, profitable or not profitable yet, who are building these data centers so quickly.

我想起了我们在《Information Here》做过的一个项目。

I'm reminded of a project that we had at the Information Here.

我们曾建立了一个关于超级工厂的数据库，这些工厂涉及电动汽车所需的一切——材料、电池等等。

We had a database of gigafactories that were involved in building everything you need for electric vehicles and the materials and the batteries and stuff like that.

当然，许多这些设施，我指的是，它们被宣布了，可能开始了建设，但后来被缩减规模，有些甚至完全关闭了。

And look, a lot of those facilities, I mean, they were announced, they maybe started construction, they were scaled back, some of them were shuttered entirely.

你认为，这些为满足三年后AI需求而建设的数据中心，会不会出现类似的情况——这些项目被缩减甚至彻底关闭？

Do you think that there's a chance here that some of these data centers that are working towards satisfying this AI demand three years from now, could we be seeing a similar scenario where these projects are scaled back or even shuttered?

我说这话时知道，DataBank公司的业务正是在运营这些数据中心。

And I say that knowing that at DataBank your business is operating these data centers.

当你在建议人们该建哪些数据中心、不该建哪些时，这无疑是你必须考虑的风险。

Surely that is a risk that you must think about as you seek to advise people on what data centers they should build and not.

是的，这目前是个价值数万亿美元的问题，对吧？

Yeah, that's the multi trillion dollar question at this point, right?

让我来谈谈我是怎么想的。

And look, here's the way I think about it.

从长远来看，我毫不怀疑你需要更多的数据中心容量。

Long term, there is no doubt in my mind you're gonna need more data center capacity.

问题是，在短期的三到五年内，供需曲线会是什么样子？

The question is over short term periods, three to five years, how does that supply demand curve look, right?

正如我之前所说，你必须追踪这里的收入。

And to my earlier comment, it really, you got to follow the revenue here.

你得关注这些实验室利用这项技术创造收入的实际情况。

You got to follow, you know, what is happening with these labs in terms of their revenue generation potential with this technology.

是的，你正在投入大量容量， presumably 为了支持这些新的收入来源。

And yes, you have a significant amount of capacity being brought online presumably to support these new revenue streams.

如果这些新的收入来源发展得更慢，那会怎样？

If those new revenue streams take longer to develop, well, guess what?

将会出现所谓的供过于求，我们会陷入一种不同的局面。

There will be a quote unquote oversupply and we'll end up in a different situation.

再次强调，我认为长期来看这些投资是有意义的，但很难预测，对吧？

Again, I think long term these investments will make sense, but it's hard to predict, right?

在1995年和1997年，我亲历了互联网泡沫时代。

In 1995 and 'ninety seven, I lived the .com era.

当时每个人都对光纤进行同样的投资。

Everyone was making the same investments on fiber.

那会怎样？

Well, guess what?

结果发现，吸收所有这些光纤花的时间比预期要长一些。

It turned out it took a little longer to absorb all that fiber.

这仍然非常有用，但很多人损失了大量资金。

It's still very useful, but a lot of people lost a lot of money.

所以我们是这样看待这个问题的。

So that's kind of the way we think about it.

在DataBank，我们计划在2026年至2030年间，在我们的运营范围内开发约一吉瓦的数据中心容量。

And at DataBank, we're developing about a gigawatt of data center capacity across our footprint between 2026 and 2030.

我们认为，无论宏观供需如何变化，这个容量规模都是合理的，我们一定能找到客户。

We think that's a reasonable amount of capacity to bring online where regardless of kind of that macro supply demand that we'll find customers for it.

你最后一个问题是。

And last question for you.

当你思考风险时，或者说你谈到的需求风险，我们会看它如何发展；但还有一种我称之为建设风险或创新风险的问题，那就是：你能获得电力吗？

As you think about the risks, or you talk about the demand risk, that is something we'll see how it plays out, there's also what I sort of maybe call construction risk or innovation risk, which is can you get the power?

你能让电力的经济性成立吗？

Can you get the economics of the power to work?

我们昨天邀请了一位创始人做节目，他正在冷却领域进行创新，寻找新的冷却方式。

We had a founder on the show yesterday who is innovating in the cooling space and finding new ways to cool things.

当你思考这些风险以及哪些环节是限制因素时，为什么这些项目会变得越来越耗时，电力和冷却是不是两个主要问题？

As you think about the risks and where the rate limiting steps are, why these projects could take longer and longer, power and cooling, are those the two main areas?

还有没有其他我们应当关注的瓶颈或限制环节？

Are there other areas that we should be thinking about in terms of bottlenecks or rate limiting steps?

是的，有很多瓶颈。

Yeah, there's a lot of bottlenecks.

我的意思是，电力以及电力获取显然是一个大问题。

I mean, obviously power, access to power is a big one.

但你看看现在发生的情况，对吧？

But look what's happening, right?

有些人为了获得电力，正往德克萨斯州以西400英里的地方迁移。

Some people are, to get around that, they're going into 400 miles West of Texas to be able to access power.

选址，这本质上还是一个地产业务。

Location, this is still a real estate business.

因此，对许多客户来说，选址非常重要。

So location is important for a lot of customers.

所以这是一个限制因素。

So that's a constraint.

从数据中心的角度来看，技术上的限制其实并不存在。

The technical constraints really from a data center perspective, they don't really exist.

关键在于如何更高效地实现。

It's about how you get that more efficiently.

但我再给你另一个风险：也许我们并不需要这么多电力来驱动所有这些AI，对吧？

But I'll give you another risk, which is maybe we don't need so much power to power all this AI, right?

如果你看看英伟达最近收购Grok的情况，Grok平台是由乔纳森·罗斯开发的，他显然是TPU的创始人之一，这是一个仅用于推理的平台。

If you look at NVIDIA's recent acquihire of Grok, the Grok platform developed by Jonathan Ross, who obviously is one of the founders of the TPU, that is a, you know, inference only type of platform.

对。

Right.

完全可以大幅降低。

Could bring down entirely.

它的每令牌功耗只有十分之一、十五分之一甚至二十分之一，对吧？

It operates at ten, fifteen, 20X less power consumption per token, right?

硅谷涌现出大量初创公司，试图实现比英伟达GPU平台效率高出1000倍的目标，对吧？

And there's a lot of new startups occurring in Silicon Valley that are trying to do 1000X more efficient than the Nvidia GPU platform, right?

所以我认为，在长期来看，我们距离说电力是主要制约因素还很远。

So I think we have a long way to go before we say that power is the constraint on a long term basis.

但它现在确实是一个制约因素。

It certainly is one of the constraints now.

很好。

Great.

拉乌尔，非常感谢你前来做客。

Raul, well, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是DataBank的首席执行官拉乌尔·马丁尼克，正在TI TV上为我们带来分享。

That is Raul Martinique, the CEO of DataBank here on TI TV.

好的。

Okay.

苹果和谷歌昨天达成的协议，对iPhone用户和整个AI生态系统而言都是一次里程碑式的公告。

Apple and Google's deal yesterday was a landmark announcement for iPhone owners and the AI ecosystem at large.

该公司宣布，新版Siri将在后台使用Google的Gemini。

The company's announced that new versions of Siri will use Google's Gemini under the hood.

我们的苹果和谷歌记者昨天一整天都在打电话，试图弄清楚这笔交易在幕后究竟是如何运作的。

Our Apple and Google reporters were both working the phones all day yesterday trying to figure out how exactly the deal will work behind the scenes.

我想请他们来谈谈这件事。

I want to bring them on to talk about it.

这位是我们的苹果记者埃琳·蒂利，这位是我们的谷歌记者埃琳·吴。

This is Erin Tilly, our Apple reporter, and Erin Wu, our Google reporter.

欢迎来到节目。

Welcome to the show.

很高兴你们两位能来。

It's great to have you both here.

谢谢邀请我

Thanks for having The

埃琳和埃琳秀。

Erin and Erin show.

同样，我们又没等到埃琳·霍姆斯，一如既往。

Once again, we're missing Erin Holmes, as usual.

我正等着三人组环节呢。

I'm waiting for the trio segment.

埃琳·蒂利，我们先从你开始。

Erin Tilly, let's start with you.

根据我们目前所知，这笔交易在幕后将如何运作？

How is this deal going to work behind the scenes from what we know?

是的，基本上苹果被允许采用这些谷歌模型，即 Gemini 模型，并根据自身需求进行调整，以便在苹果产品和 Siri 等苹果功能背后进行定制和优化。

Yeah, so basically Apple is allowed to take these Google models, the Gemini models, and adapt it for its own purposes, so it can tweak it and do what it needs to do behind the scenes to get it working on Apple products, Apple features like Siri.

因此，这实际上是将 Gemini 当作内部模型来整合。

So it's really incorporating Gemini as if it will be an internal model.

所以它不会将请求路由到谷歌服务器。

So it's not going to be routing out to Google servers.

它会被整合为一种类似苹果内部模型的方式，用于其各项功能。

It's going to be incorporated like as if it's an internal sort of model that Apple's using for its features.

再提醒一下时间线，我们预计什么时候会推出新的Siri？

And remind us timeline wise, when are we expecting the new Siri to come out again?

苹果在过去将近两年里一再推迟，他们一直说今年终于会推出2024年最初承诺的功能。

So Apple's continually delayed it over the past, you know, almost two years now, and they've said this year is the year they'll finally kind of come out with what they initially promised in 2024.

我们了解到，春季会有一些发布，然后他们将在夏季的全球开发者大会上宣布更全面的AI功能。

And we understand there'll be some releases in the spring and that they will then announce kind of a more full fledged AI in the summer at their worldwide developers conference.

陈武，我们知道谷歌为此向苹果支付了多少费用吗？

Erin Wu, do we know how much Google is paying Apple here at all?

是的，实际上在这种情况下，是苹果在支付谷歌费用，但我们还不完全清楚具体数额。

Yeah, actually in this situation, Apple is paying Google, and we don't totally know.

哦，抱歉。

Oh, sorry.

对。

Right.

不好意思。

My bad.

苹果在支付这笔钱，我就是这个意思。

Apple is paying that's what I meant.

苹果支付给谷歌多少钱？

How much is Apple paying Google?

苹果正在支付给谷歌。

Apple is paying Google.

昨天，这两家公司发布了一份联合声明，但并未透露任何交易细节。

So yesterday, the two companies released a joint statement that did not get into any of the terms of the deal.

所以我们并不完全清楚。

So we don't 100% know.

彭博社去年秋天报道称，苹果每年支付给谷歌10亿美元。

Bloomberg reported last fall that Apple is paying Google $1,000,000,000 annually.

昨天了解该协议的消息人士告诉我，这个数字可能远高于此。

Source of knowledge of the agreement yesterday told me that the number could be way bigger than that.

因此，从金钱角度来看，这无疑是谷歌的一大胜利。

So this is definitely a win for Google from a monetary perspective.

我想知道，从谷歌现在与苹果达成这笔交易的背景来看，陈怡你怎么看？

And I wonder how you think, Erin Wu, about this from the context of Google now has this deal with Apple.

谷歌显然拥有三星生态系统以及整个安卓操作系统平台。

Google obviously has the Samsung ecosystem and its whole Android operating platform as well.

我只是觉得，他们显然会将 Gemini 集成到这个生态系统中。

I mean, it just strikes me that they obviously would integrate Gemini into that ecosystem.

所以现在，从我认为的硬件两大主要分销渠道来看，他们实际上已经垄断了市场，对吧？

So now they really have the market cornered in terms of what I think are the top two distribution ways for hardware, right?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，他们实际上已经几乎垄断了移动设备市场。

I mean, they're really cornering the market essentially on mobile devices.

所以他们和苹果达成了这笔交易。

So they've got this deal with Apple.

他们也和三星达成了协议。

They've also got a deal with Samsung.

上周，三星的联席首席执行官表示，他们计划将运行Gemini的设备数量增加到8亿台，是当前数量的两倍。

Last week, the Samsung co CEO said that they plan to increase the number of devices running Gemini to 800,000,000 to double the number of devices running Gemini.

所以，Gemini既有面向消费者的Gemini应用，也有Gemini PowerEdge Galaxy AI，后者是三星手机上的一系列AI功能。

So Gemini there, there's the Gemini consumer app and there's also Gemini PowerEdge Galaxy AI, which is like a lot of AI features on Samsung phones.

因此，从很多方面来看，谷歌已经拥有了OpenAI正努力通过开发移动设备来实现的那种分发能力。

So essentially, like, Google in a lot of ways has the kind of distribution that OpenAI is really trying to get via creating these mobile devices.

换句话说，谷歌已经基本掌握了移动设备的渠道。

Like, Google already has essentially the mobile devices.

亚伦·蒂利，你所报道的内容中一个有趣的部分是关于这些数据的隐私问题。

Aaron Tilly, one of the interesting parts of what you were reporting on was the privacy element of the data here.

我知道，当Apple Intelligence发布时，隐私是他们大力强调的一个重点，他们还推出了自己的私有云服务器服务。

I know that when Apple Intelligence was announced, I mean, privacy was a big thing that they highlighted and they had their that whole private cloud server business.

我不太明白它是如何运作的，但我记得他们曾表示过类似这样的话：别担心，数据仍然保留在你的设备上，或者你拥有一个私有云。

I don't understand how it works, but I remember them saying something to the effect of, Don't worry, the data is still sort of private to your device, or maybe you have a private cloud.

这些新模型是否改变了这一点？

Is any of that changing with these models here?

Siri 是怎么运作的？

How does it work with Siri?

是的。

Yeah.

这些计划完全没有改变，因为他们是将 Gemini 模型当作苹果 AI 模型来整合的，会完全如之前所说，所有 AI 处理都会在设备上或他们的私有云系统中进行。

So none of those plans are changing at all because the way they're incorporating these Gemini models, like incorporating them as if they're Apple AI models, they will work completely like they said earlier, where all the AI processing will happen either on device or in their private cloud system.

而且在他们的私有云系统中，他们承诺不会用这些数据来进一步训练他们的算法。

And with their private cloud system, they promise they're not using that data to train their algorithms further.

所有数据都是匿名处理的，不与任何用户关联。

It's all it's all just processed anonymously, not attached to a user.

所以，你知道，他们通过整合 Gemini 的方式，继续承诺这种隐私保护。

So it you know, they they say this, you know, through how they're incorporating Gemini, it'll it'll it'll continue to, you know, promise that privacy.

那么，艾伦·蒂利，继续说下去，与 OpenAI 的合作会怎样？

And so sticking with you, Aaron Tilly, what happens to the deal with OpenAI?

这个合作仍然有效。

That's still in place.

你知道，这些协议差别挺大的。

You know, the deals were pretty different.

与OpenAI的协议是这样的：当你以某种方式询问Siri时，它会跳转到OpenAI。

The deal with with OpenAI, it it it sort of links out to OpenAI when you ask Siri a certain way.

如果你以特定方式问Siri一个问题，它有时会跳转到OpenAI，甚至弹出一个提示窗口问：‘你想前往OpenAI吗？’

If you ask Siri a question a certain way, it will sometimes link out to OpenAI, including putting a prompt window saying, Do you want to go to OpenAI?

所以这个机制仍然存在。

So that still exists.

但随着Siri在Gemini的辅助下越来越能独立回答这些问题，这种跳转会变得越来越不相关。

It's just like it'll become even less and less relevant as, you know, Siri can answer these questions itself more and more with Gemini helping it.

Aaron Wu，我回想起谷歌所面临的那些反垄断诉讼，我记得法官曾说过，AI彻底改变了游戏规则。

Aaron Wu, I'm sort of thinking back to all of these antitrust cases that Google was fighting, and I seem to remember the judge having said something to the effect of the AI has changed the game entirely.

当我们讨论谷歌是否需要出售Chrome时，法官说：‘现在这个世界和几年前这些反垄断诉讼最初提起时已经完全不同了。’

And when we were thinking about whether or not Google needed to sell Chrome, the judge said, Hey, it's a totally different world than a couple years ago when these antitrust lawsuits may have originally been filed.

那时ChatGPT在与Gemini的竞争中领先，而如今根据数据来看，它仍然领先。

That was at a time when ChatGPT was ahead in the race against Gemini, and it still is ahead, think, based on the numbers.

但这里谷歌又在与苹果做大规模合作。

But here you have Google again doing big deals with Apple.

在你的圈子里，人们会不会谈到这场游戏变化有多快，以及这在多大程度上具有讽刺意味——这正是法官做出如此裁决的原因之一？

Do people in your orbit talk about how quickly the game has changed and how somewhat ironic it is that that was one of the reasons that the judge ruled the way that it did?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，过去几个月里，氛围确实发生了巨大转变，现在每个人对谷歌都极度看好。

I mean, think there's definitely been an insane vibe shift in the past few months where everyone's really bullish on Google now.

很多人说，之前的很多疑虑都是误判，我们看到谷歌在过去几个月、过去一年里迅速追赶，其模型至少已经与OpenAI的相当，甚至更好。

A lot of people are saying, Oh, a lot of the doubt was misplaced and we've seen them really come from behind in the past few months, in the past year to either have models that are at least on par, if not better than what OpenAI is doing.

但根据我们掌握的所有数据，谷歌在聊天机器人分发方面仍然落后。

And Google is still behind when it comes to chatbot distribution, according to all of the numbers that we have.

但谷歌还拥有所有这些其他的分发渠道。

But Google also has all of these other distribution channels.

比如，谷歌拥有搜索。

Like Google has search.

谷歌还有许多其他产品，正在越来越多地集成Gemini。

Google has all of these other products that it's like increasingly putting Gemini in.

至于你提到的这些分发协议，某种程度上，它们在搜索领域遵循了非常相似的策略，即在苹果和安卓设备上进行搜索。

And to your point with these distribution deals, in some ways they're following a very similar playbook with search, which is getting searched on Apple, getting searched on Android.

再次，Remedy裁决中指出，谷歌不得将Gemini的安装与其他应用程序捆绑在一起。

Again, what came out in the Remedy's ruling was that Google isn't allowed to essentially tie the installment of Gemini to other apps.

它们不能说：‘如果你想使用地图或YouTube，就必须同时安装Gemini。’

They can't say like, Oh, if you want to have Maps or if you want to have YouTube, you also have to have Gemini.

因此，裁决中的一些条款有望阻止谷歌使用类似的非法垄断手段来推广Gemini。

And so there's some stuff in the remedies ruling that's hopefully going to prevent Google from using similar illegal monopolistic techniques to distribute Gemini.

但显而易见的是，它们与三星、苹果都有合作关系，因此仍在继续利用这些关系，将AI集成到这些设备上。

But it's obvious that they have these relationships with Samsung, they have these relationships with Apple, and so they're also continuing to leverage them to get the AI on these devices.

而且，现在的模型确实已经很不错了。

And again, like the models are good now.

这些公司并不是因为现有关系而被迫采用一个劣质模型。

It's not as if these companies are taking like an inferior model because of their existing

你能为我们简化一下刚才的说法吗？

Simplify what you were saying here for us for a second.

关于分销协议，再提醒我们一下，那个地图相关的内容。

The distribution deals so remind us here, the map stuff.

那当时的协议是什么？

What was the deal then?

我只是想弄明白这一点。

I just want to understand it.

基本上，被裁定为垄断的行为是，谷歌与手机制造商、移动运营商等合作伙伴签订了独家分销协议。

So basically, what was ruled to be monopolistic was that Google was making exclusive distribution deals with partners like phone manufacturers, mobile carriers, etcetera.

他们会把安装其他应用的前提条件设定为必须安装搜索功能。

And they would and they would condition having other apps on condition on having search.

比如，如果你想拥有其他应用，例如安卓应用商店——没有它，这些手机就毫无用处——你还必须安装搜索功能。

So like, if you want to have these other apps, for example, the Android Play Store without which they these fans are useless, like, you also need to have search.

而据我们所知，目前这些协议并不是独家的。

And so right now, in these deals, as far as we know, they're not exclusive.

他们不会要求拥有其他应用必须使用 Gemini。

They don't condition having any other apps on having Gemini.

所以据我们所知，谷歌正在遵守条款

So as far as we know, Google is complying with the terms of

对。

Right.

换句话说，你可以拥有一个不使用 Gemini 的应用。

In other words, you can have an app that doesn't use Gemini.

并不是说这个应用只能通过这种方式运行。

It's not like it's the only way that that app is going to work type of thing.

明白了。

Got it.

很好。

Great.

这确实是一笔令人兴奋的交易，感谢你们两位前来帮助我们理解它。

Well, it is an exciting deal, and I want to thank you both for coming on to help us make sense of it.

这是我们的谷歌记者Aaron Wu和我们的苹果记者Aaron Tilly，来自《The Information》。

That is Aaron Wu, our Google reporter, and Aaron Tilly, our Apple reporter, here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

本周苹果与谷歌的交易，只是最近众多合作中最新的一例，这些合作让即使是最大的科技公司也开始超越自身业务，寻找为客户提供更多价值的方式。

Apple's deal with Google this week is just the latest partnership that has seen even the biggest tech companies look outside their own businesses for ways to offer more to their customers.

当然，我们最近也看到一系列与人工智能相关的收购，大型公司正试图更快地扩充团队和能力。

We of course have also seen a string of AI related acquisitions lately as big companies try to grow their teams and their capabilities even faster.

我想邀请Brex的首席业务官Art Levy，帮助我们剖析当前这类交易、合作与伙伴关系的现状。

I want to bring on Art Levy, Chief Business Officer at Brex, to help us break down this current moment for these types of deals and transactions and partnerships.

Art，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Art, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你能来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

很高兴再次来到这里。

Great to be here again.

那么，你如何评价我们本周看到的苹果与谷歌的合作？

So what is your assessment of this Apple Google partnership that we saw this week?

是的，我认为你提到的所有事情——无论是并购还是我们看到的合作——核心都是需要快速行动。

Yeah, so I think the name of the game on everything you touched on, whether it's the M and As, the partnerships that we're seeing, is the need to move quickly.

从两人初创公司到全球最大的企业，所有公司都意识到，必须尽可能快地行动。

All companies from a two person startup to the largest businesses in the world are realizing they need to move as fast as they can.

长期以来，苹果的Siri产品一直表现不佳。

And for a long time, Apple's Siri product has not been great.

因此，他们现在承认：好吧，我们将与谷歌的Gemini合作，并立即推进，因为这项功能将在2026年上线，从而大幅提升Siri在苹果智能系统中的功能。

And so this is them admitting, okay, we will partner with Google Gemini and immediately, because it's going to ship in 'twenty six, make the feature set in Siri much, much better inside of Apple intelligence.

对谷歌来说，这简直是稳操胜券，对吧？

And for Google, this is a slam dunk, right?

他们立即获得了美国最有价值的硬件生态系统，对吧？

They immediately get access to the most valuable hardware ecosystem in The US, right?

iPhone在美国的市场份额达到60%，而直到现在，他们一直无法真正利用这些数据。

The iPhone has 60% market share in The US and they have been unable to really work with that data up until this point.

所以我认为，苹果终于承认了：让我们专注于自己最擅长的领域。

So I think it's Apple finally admitting, Hey, let us work on what we do best.

顺便说一句，这里并没有排他性协议，意思是苹果仍然可以在后台继续开发自己的模型，但他们的意思是：我们现在必须让客户感到惊喜。

And by the way, there's no exclusivity agreement here in the sense that Apple can continue working on their models in the background, but it's saying, Hey, we need to delight the customer right now.

这同时也是对OpenAI的直接警告，因为目前，如果Siri无法妥善处理某些查询，这些查询就会被发送到OpenAI。

And it's also a shot across the bow to OpenAI frankly, because right now, if you know, there's queries that leave Siri and go to OpenAI if they aren't properly handled.

因此，这三大科技巨头之间的关系非常有趣。

And so it's an interesting dynamic between these three tech titans.

我有一个问题想问你：这个合作，我们刚才已经和我们的记者讨论过了。

So one of the questions I had for you is, look, this partnership, we just talked about it with our reporters.

我的意思是，这个合作相对更明确一些。

I mean, this one a little more clear cut.

这是苹果为访问谷歌的模型而向谷歌付费。

This is Apple paying Google for access to the models.

但我们一再看到科技公司宣布合作，对吧？

But time and time again, we see tech companies announcing partnerships, right?

我们已经合作了，你也在Brex主导过这些交易。

We have partnered and you've led these deals as well at Brex.

而且，作为一个从未做过这类交易的人，我想再确认一下，合作是否意味着……

And I mean, as someone who has never done these types of deals before, I mean, does a partnership Say imply it again?

我说过你会擅长这些的。

I said you'd be good at them.

好吧，让我先做完这个节目，好吗？

Well, let me just do the show first, all right?

我们稍后再谈这个。

We'll talk about that later on.

但这是否总是意味着金钱的交换？还是存在一些合作，只是我给你这些API或工具，你给我们一些别的东西？

But does it always imply that money is changing hands, or are there partnerships where it's really just, you know, I'm giving you these APIs or these tools, you're giving us something else?

帮我们理解一下它们是如何运作的。

Help us understand how they work.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这一切都取决于相关公司的商业模式。

So it all comes down to the business models of the companies at hand.

在合作关系中，总是有一家公司提供某种东西，另一家公司提供别的东西。

And so in the partnership, it's always that one company is giving something and the other company is giving something else.

但它们获得的东西不一定非得来自对方公司，如果这说得通的话。

But what they're getting doesn't necessarily have to come from the other company, if that makes sense.

比如，看看金融科技领域的交易。

So if you look at FinTech deals, for example.

比如，Brex 最近宣布了与第五第三银行的合作。

So, you know, Brex recently announced a deal with Fifth Third Bank.

这关于我们能够通过交易费更好地从他们的客户群中获利，而交易费是金融科技生态系统中的主要商业模式。

That's about us being able to better monetize on their customer base through interchange, which is, you know, something that is in the FinTech ecosystem, how is the main business model.

所以你必须审视这些公司的商业模式。

So you have to look at the business models of the companies.

如果我们以苹果和谷歌的合作为例，当然苹果正在支付谷歌，据传金额高达十亿美元。

If we take the Apple Google deal, of course Apple is paying Google, I think it's rumored a billion dollars.

是的。

Yeah.

但这并不是谷歌这么做的真正原因，对吧？

That's not really why Google's doing it, right?

十亿美元，说起来很疯狂，但我认为这对谷歌来说根本算不上什么大事。

A billion dollars, and it's crazy to say this, I don't think really moves the needle for Google.

主要是为了获得数据生态系统，以便他们能改进自己的产品。

About getting access to the data ecosystem so that they can make their products better.

因此，在很多合作中，你需要看看这些公司的商业模式，这将帮助你理解他们为何进行这些交易。

And so with a lot of partnerships, need to just look at what is the business model of the companies and it will help you understand probably why they're doing those deals.

最近另一个有趣的合作是，OpenAI的ChatGPT宣布了他们的医疗健康计划，并与多家医疗数据提供商合作。

So another partnership that was interesting recently is, you know, OpenAI ChatGPT talked, announced their health initiative, and they're partnering with a number of medical data providers.

这一切都是为了改善用户体验，当我登录ChatGPT并问：‘我的腿怎么了？’时。

That's all about making the user experience better for me when I log into ChatGBT and ask, Hey, like what's wrong with my leg?

但从OpenAI的角度来看，我很高兴你提到这一点，因为这正是我想问你的：我们上周看到了他们宣布的医疗合作。

But I see it from the OpenAI angle, and I'm happy you brought that up because that was what I wanted to ask you about is we saw the health partnerships announced, I think it was last week.