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欢迎大家收看Information的TITV节目。
Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.
我是Akash Pasricha。
My name is Akash Pasricha.
今天是7月31日，星期五。
It is Friday, July 31.
今天节目里，我们要聊聊亚马逊和苹果的季度财报。
Today on the show, we're going to get to Amazon and Apple's quarterly results.
我们首先会回顾昨天各大AI实验室的一系列头条新闻，包括Anthropic被黑客攻击，以及OpenAI的新定价结构。
We're going to start with a string of headlines around the Big AI labs yesterday, including an anthropic hack and OpenAI's new pricing structure.
然后，我们会请编辑们带来本周的《编辑精选》环节。
We're then going to turn to our editors for this week's edition of The Editor's Cut.
我们会从宏观角度审视大型科技公司的季度业绩，也会回顾蒂姆·库克在苹果的任期。
We'll take a bird's eye view on Big Tech's quarterly results at large and also look back on Tim Cook's tenure at Apple.
最后，我们会讨论周末的深度报道，关于蒙大拿州一个实验性新项目，该项目几乎允许任何人获取尚未获得FDA批准的药物。
And to close out the show, we'll discuss our weekend Big Read on an experimental new program in Montana that will allow almost anyone to access drugs that haven't yet been approved by the FDA.
今天的节目会很精彩，那我们直接开始吧。
It's going be a great show, so let's get right on into it.
Anthropic昨天表示，在一次内部安全审查中，Claude侵入了三家公司的系统。
Anthropics said yesterday that Claude hacked into the systems of three companies during an internal security review.
此前，OpenAI透露其一个模型曾入侵Hugging Face。
That review came after OpenAI disclosed that one of its models had breached Hugging Face.
我们来请Arena联合创始人兼CEO Anastasios Angelopoulos就这些攻击的最新情况发表评论。
Here to comment on the latest on those attacks is Anastasios Angelopoulos, co founder and CEO of Arena.
Anastasios，欢迎再次来到节目。
Anastasios, welcome back to the show.
很高兴
It's great to
你能来。
have you here.
我也很乐意来。
Happy to be here.
很期待聊这个话题。
Excited to talk about this.
那我们有很多内容要聊。
So we get a lot to get through.
先从Anthropic被黑这件事说起吧。
So let's start with the Anthropic hack.
我觉得有意思的是，他们直到OpenAI被黑之后才去检查，然后决定回头说，我们要全面审计一下。
I mean, funny thing to me was they didn't discover it until OpenAI had its hack, and then it decided to go back and say, we're going to audit everything.
但他们确实发现了问题，我想听听你的看法。
But they found that it did, and I wonder what are your thoughts here?
其实这里有两个故事。
Well, listen, there's two stories here.
一个是OpenAI的，一个是Anthropic的。
There's the open eye story and anthropic story.
两个都非常有意思。
Both are incredibly entertaining.
那我们先说说OpenAI那个故事吧。
So let's talk about the opening eye story first.
事情是这样的，
What happened is that
好吧，我们来说说Anthropic，说说Anthropic。
Well, let's let's talk about anthro let's talk about anthropic.
那个，那个，
That's that's
那个是最新的。
that's the latest one.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我想
I want
好的。
Fine.
那我们先聊Anthropic吧。
Let's talk about anthropic first.
简单来说，在他们内部进行的一些安全测试中，他们发现这些Anthropic模型实际上黑进了三家真实公司。
So basically, in the context of like some security some security tests that they were running internally, they found that these Anthropic models actually hacked three real companies.
具体过程是这样的。
And so the way that they're that it worked was like this.
其中一家公司，名字和他们测试环境里一个虚构目标的名字一样。
One of the companies was a company that had the same name as a fake target that they were running a test against inside their environment.
所以他们就说，去黑掉那个信息机构。
So they said, you know, go hack the information.
那个信息机构是他们自己在沙盒里创建的虚构目标。
And the information was a fictional target they had made inside their little sandbox.
然后模型就以为，哦，我知道那个信息机构，那个新闻媒体。
And then the model was like, oh, I know the information, the news outlet.
然后它逃出了Anthropic搭建的测试环境，真的黑进了那家真实公司。
And then it escaped the testing environment that Anthropic had made and one hacked the real company.
所以那显然不是那家新闻机构，而是另一家公司。
So it wasn't obviously the information, but it was a different company.
事情就是这样发生的。
And that's what happened.
第二个是失误。
Second one is mistake.
对。
Yeah.
确实是个无心之失。
Honest mistake.
嗯，我也不确定。
Well, I don't know.
我是说，这里谁是无心的呢？
I mean, like, who's honest here?
模型可不是。
The model's not.
模型其实是被骗了。
The model's sort of deceived
这有点意思。
It's something.
对。
Yeah.
好。
Okay.
它以为自己逃出了限制。
Into, you know, the thinking that it was like, it basically like escaped its guardrails.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们看到的是，这些模型，无论是开源的还是Anthropic的，都处于这种越狱场景中，它们一开始被关在锁着的牢房里做实验，然后想办法挣扎着逃出来。
So what we're seeing is that these models, both open and anthropic are in these escape from prison scenarios where they started inside like a locked cell to perform these experiments and then are finding their way to sort of like scratch and claw their way out.
第二起事件是Anthropic的模型，叫Mythos，它往Pie Pie上发布了一个恶意软件包，大家真的能下载到。
The second incident that the anthropic model, this was mythos, it published a malicious package to Pie Pie that you could actually download.
第三起是，一个未发布的内部模型扫描了一堆互联网目标，差点就搞了一次SQL注入攻击。
And the third was that an unreleased internal model, it scanned a bunch of internet targets and basically almost did a SQL injection type attack.
所以这就是可能出现的威胁类型。
So this is like the types of threats that are possible
对模型来说，这些就是各种黑客手段。
to So models when they're these are the menu of hacks.
我们跟人聊过。
We've talked to people.
人家说，看吧，这种事会一直发生。
People say, Look, stuff like this will keep happening.
模型会越来越强。
The models will get better.
我的意思是，这都是开发要付出的代价。
I mean, this is all the cost of development.
你觉得这对企业来说意味着什么？
What are the implications that you see for businesses here?
是不是就是说，在这个错误会不断发生的世界里，你只能加强自己的安全措施？
Is it literally just you have to beef up your security practice in a world where these mistakes will continue to happen?
还是说，我们在选择模型时也要考虑这些因素？
Or do we have implications in terms of which model to use?
你本身就是做模型排名的。
You're in the business of ranking these models.
我想知道你们会不会把这些事件考虑进去。
I wonder if you take that or these events into consideration.
你觉得这些黑客攻击会带来哪些连锁反应？
What are the ripple effects of these hacks, do you think?
是的，在Arena，我们确实花了很多心思考虑如何应对这些安全问题。
Yeah, well, at Arena, we think a lot about how we're going to do security as a result of this.
原因就是，你得明白——这可能是这些公司想通过谈论这些事件来传达的一个信息——你必须开始把这些模型视为潜在的不良行为者，即使它们在你设定的安全防护或基准测试范围内，它们甚至可能知道自己在被测试。
And the reason is because like the you have to you know, and this is probably the narrative that these companies want to promote by talking about this is that you have to start thinking about these models as potential nefarious actors that may even within the security guardrails or benchmarks that you set for them, they may even know that they're being benchmarked.
但是当你把它们放到现实世界中，它们真的可以为所欲为，因为这基本上就是那些有效利他主义者从一开始就讲的回形针最大化故事的大胜利。
But then when you put them out in the real world, they could really do anything because and and it's and it's basically a big win for the effective altruist guys that were saying this paper clip maximizer story from the beginning.
如果你设定了一个目标，但没有明确所有需要的护栏，那么模型可能会去做一些别的疯狂的事情。
That if you set a goal and you're not specific enough about all the guardrails that you need along the way, then the model might go and do something else crazy.
所以，你知道，回形针最大化的故事就是，如果你设定目标要生产最多的回形针，那么模型可能会为了做回形针而吃掉整个世界，杀掉所有人，用他们来做回形针。
So, you know, the paper clip maximizes stories that if you set the goal of producing the largest number of paper clips, then the model might like eat the whole world to make paper clips and kill everybody in order to make paper clips out of them.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
所以这就是我们看到的：你让模型在那个小安全测试里做某件事，结果它却去黑了一家真正的公司。
So this is kind of what we're seeing is that you told the model to do something inside of that small security test, and then instead hacked a real company.
我的意思是，你怎么可能知道会发生这种事呢？
I mean, how the heck were you supposed to know that that was going to happen?
所以，你真正需要的是有人来关注这个模型部署后的后果。
And so what you really need is somebody looking at the post deployment consequences of this model.
可能得有好几层审计，一直盯着模型，问它：嘿，你是不是在干坏事？
Probably there needs to be several steps of auditing that says, that's looking at the model all the time and saying, Hey, are you doing something nefarious?
你是不是在误导周围环境？
Are you misleading your environment?
你是不是在搞恶意行为？
Are you doing something malicious?
你是不是在黑客攻击？
Are you hacking?
你是不是在耍阴谋？
Are you scheming?
我的意思是，基本上，这就是为什么招聘有用，你需要更多人盯着这些东西，基本上这些公司都在招人
I mean, people basic I mean, you know, this is where the hiring is helpful, you need more people monitoring the stuff, basically, these companies asking
来搞智能体。
for agents.
对吧？
Right?
而且我觉得智能体更容易扩展。
And I think that the agents are more scalable.
但是智能体是由模型本身运行的，所以有点……
But the agents are run by the models themselves, so a little
兄弟，智能体必须要有攻击方和防御方两种。
Dude, it's the agents that you have to have an attacker and a defender agent.
人类根本不可能看得过来所有这些。
There's no way a human's gonna be able to look at all this.
我是说，事情发生得跟光速一样快。
I mean, things are happening at, like, the speed of light.
它们都在电脑上发生。
They're happening on a computer.
所以，对。
And so Right.
你知道，让人类来审计这些东西根本是不可能的。
You know, having a human able to audit these things is just gonna impossible.
我们即将进入一个智能体比人还多的世界。
We're going to be in a world with more agents than humans.
你不可能让人类去盯着所有这些。
You can't have a human looking at all of this.
你必须有自动化的防御能力。
You're going to have to have automated defensive capabilities.
对。
Right.
我想跟你聊聊其他几个关于模型的头条新闻。
I want to get through a couple other headlines with you about models.
OpenAI调整了他们几个模型的定价结构。
So OpenAI changed up their pricing structure for a couple of their models.
Luna，就是5.6系列里比较便宜的那个模型，便宜了80%。
So Luna, which is the cheaper model in the 5.6 family, that is 80% cheaper.
Terra是中端模型，便宜了20%。
Terra is the mid tier model, it's 20% cheaper.
跟我说说，你觉得OpenAI搞这个定价策略是想干什么？
Take me inside what you think OpenAI is trying to do with this pricing strategy.
我是说，表面上来看，他们就是想抢占市场。
And I mean, look, on the surface here, they're just trying to win the market.
这很明显。
I mean, that's obvious here.
但你觉得他们相比Anthropic，想在市场上占据什么位置？
But where do you think they're trying to position themselves in the market compared to Anthropic?
因为本周早些时候，我们节目请来的嘉宾提到，Anthropic的Opus 5在保持老模型性价比的同时，把性能提升了一个档次。
Because we had folks on the show come on a little bit earlier this week talking about how Anthropic, with Opus five, they're kind of moving up a weight class at the same price performance that they had with their older models.
而OpenAI这边是在降价。
This is OpenAI coming down with price.
我们是不是看到这两家公司开始分别瞄准市场的不同端了？
Are we sort of seeing a delineation here between what ends of the market these two companies are targeting?
对。
Yeah.
所以我觉得这里的大趋势是，今年早些时候大家都在追求最大化的token数量，现在大家都在谈论效率。
So I think the secular trend that's happening here is that there was the token maxing era earlier this year, and now everybody's talking about efficiency.
大家都在讨论什么样的模型最适合自己的任务，大小正合适。
Everybody's talking about what model is right sized and best for my task.
当然，在Arena上我们有最好的信息，因为我们做了很多真实世界的基准测试。
Of course, it's something that on Arena, we have the best information about because we do all this real world benchmarking.
所以，我们看到Luna的新定价，它确实是一个非常出色的帕累托最优模型，也就是说，在它的价格范围内，没有哪个模型一定比Luna更好。
And so what we see in the new pricing for Luna is that it is really an extraordinary Pareto optimal model in the sense that there's no model in its price range that's necessarily better than Luna.
这正是OpenAI想要赢下的游戏。
And that's really the game that OpenAI wants to win.
他们不只是想造出最大、最厉害的模型，那种一个token要花100美元，而且特别聪明的模型。
They don't just wanna build the biggest, baddest model that's gonna cost you a $100 a token and is gonna be so, so smart necessarily.
当然，他们也想要赢下那一块。
I mean, they want to win that too.
但另一个重要的部分，就是要在成本和性能的权衡上胜出。
But another huge part of the narrative is gonna be winning the cost performance trade offs.
我的业务能获得投资回报吗？
Is my business getting ROI?
我能不能以合适的价格得到我需要的成果？
Am I getting the outcomes that I need at the prices that I need?
这正是大家心里想的，因为没人愿意再花一千美元去问一个语言模型天气怎么样。
And this is what this is what's on everybody's mind because everyone's done spending a thousand dollars asking an LLM, you know, to tell it about the weather.
你觉得这是不是对开源和闭源讨论的直接回应，以及大家现在都在谈要少花钱这件事？
Do you think that this was a direct response to the open source, closed source discussions that have been going on and the fact that there is a conversation about spending less?
怎么可能没有回应呢？
How can there not be a response?
当一个模型发布，在代码竞技场排名第一，怎么可能没有回应？
How can there not be a response when a model comes out, it's number one in the code arena?
而且它比那些实验室的前沿模型还便宜。
And then it's less expensive than the Frontier models from the labs.
价格和Sonnet一样。
It's the same price as Sonnet.
当然，这在一定程度上是竞争推动的。
Of course, it's driven in part by competition.
竞争对我们这些大语言模型的消费者来说太好了。
Competition is so good for us as consumers of LLMs.
这意味着所有这些实验室都会为了吸引用户而不断压低价格，一降再降。
It means that all these labs are going be competing to get the lowest and lowest and lowest price because of adoption reasons.
当你和那些使用这些模型的人、客户等交流时，我已经看到一些企业发布公告说，你知道吗，你现在可以用同样的订阅价格使用更多的令牌了。
And when you talk to folks using these models, customers, etcetera, I I already saw some businesses putting out bulletins saying, Just so you know, you can now use this many more tokens for your subscription price.
那么，开发者社区对这个定价变化的评价如何？
So what have the reviews been in the developer community of this pricing change?
这对他们会有多大的影响？
How much of an impact will it have for them?
影响会很大。
It'll have a big impact.
但是，你知道，开源也是一个巨大的因素。
But you know, the open source thing is also a huge factor here.
因为开源不仅仅是价格的问题。
Because it's not just about pricing in open source.
开源的承诺是，嘿，你可以拥有自己的智能。
The promise of the open source is, Hey, you can own your own intelligence.
模型会运行在你的服务器上。
The model's going to live on your server.
不用把你的数据发送给其他公司，那些可能最终会复制你商业模式的公司。
Not sending your data to some other company, some other company that might eventually copy your business model.
你不用担心政府会切断你业务所依赖的智能来源。
You're not like You don't have to worry about the government shutting off your source of intelligence that your business has been building on.
对。
Right.
它可能不是万能的。
It might not do everything.
我的意思是，仅仅因为更便宜，人们也不会立刻切换。
I mean, just because it's cheaper, it's not like people are going to switch right away.
没错。
Exactly.
而且从结构上看，开源模型对企业来说会更有优势。
And there's structural reasons why the open source models are going to be better for businesses.
它们能大幅降低风险，让人们更有掌控感。
They're just going to decrease so much risk They're going to make people feel more ownership.
这就是AI主权这个说法的核心。
That's the whole story around AI sovereignty.
每家公司都想要AI主权。
Every company wants AI sovereignty.
这个词挺有意思的。
And this is such a funny word.
就像，为什么公司需要主权呢？
It's like, why do companies need sovereignty?
它们又不是国家。
They're not countries.
但重点是，每个人都想拥有自己的智能。
But the point is that everyone wants to own their own intelligence.
而且即使你在价格上赢了，作为闭源模型提供商，你其实赢不了那场竞争。
And even if you win on price, you really can't win that race when you're a closed source model provider.
所以他们至少得在价格上赢。
So they better win on price at least.
对。
Right.
我知道你得走了。
I know you've to run.
我再问你一个快速的问题。
Let me ask you one more quick question.
Thinking Machines Lab，他们发布了最新的模型。
Thinking Machines Lab, they released their latest model.
那是他们Inkling系列中的一个小模型。
It was a small model in their Inkling family.
帮我们了解一下这个模型有什么不同，以及你看到的人们对它的初步反应。
Just help us understand what is different about this model and any early reactions you're seeing from people.
好的，当然可以。
Yeah, absolutely.
如果你看Arena排行榜，新的Thinking Machines小模型，Inkling small，总体排名大约第90位。
So if you look on the Arena leaderboards, the new thinking machines, the small model, the Inkling small, is like number 90 overall.
然后如果只看开源模型，它排在第21位左右。
Then when you subset to open source models, it's like number 21.
但这并不能说明全部情况，因为它实际上是一个非常小且高效的模型。
But that doesn't tell the whole story because it's actually a very small and efficient model.
所以如果只看和它同重量级的模型，也就是那些又小又便宜的模型，它实际上排在前三。
So when you subset to models that are within the same weight class as that model, which is a little model and a cheap model, it's actually top three,
那你会拿它跟谁比较呢？
which is Who who would you compare it against?
比如，像……
Like, who are Like, the
Gemma 4，较小的 Gemma 4 模型，等等。
Gemma four, the smaller Gemma four model, and so on.
有好几个这样的模型。
There's a few of these.
好的。
Okay.
这确实是个了不起的成就，因为如果这种模型甚至能在小型电脑上运行，或者可能本地运行，那就是我们努力的方向。
And it's and it that is an incredible achievement because if that's the type of model that you could potentially even run on a small smaller computer or maybe even locally, that's where we're pushing towards.
他们在这方面确实打造了一个前沿模型。
And they're absolutely built a frontier model in that regard.
这就是早期的反响。
That's the early reaction.
对。
Right.
很好。
Great.
好的，感谢你来做客，Anastasios。
Well, I want to thank you, Anastasios, for coming on.
这位是Anastasios Angelopoulos，Arena的首席执行官，在TITV接受采访。
That is Anastasios Angelopoulos, the CEO of Arena here on TITV.
苹果投资者被公司昨晚在季度业绩中提到的供应限制吓到了。
Apple investors were spooked by the supply constraints the company flagged on its quarterly results last night.
预计总收入增长将放缓。
Total revenue growth is expected to decelerate.
最近一个季度增长了16%，预计本季度将增长9%到11%。
It grew 16% in the most recent quarter, and it's expected to grow between 911% in the current quarter.
为了了解更多细节，我想请出Rosenblatt Securities的高级研究分析师Barton Crockett。
For more color on that, I want to bring on Barton Crockett, senior research analyst at Rosenblatt Securities.
Barton，欢迎来到节目。
Barton, welcome to the show.
很高兴再次见到你。
It's great to have you back.
太好了。
Great.
谢谢。
Thank you.
很高兴来到这里。
Happy to be here.
昨晚苹果的业绩有哪些头条新闻？
What were the headlines from last night's results for Apple?
我觉得头条就是他们的iPhone周期依然具有历史性，非常强劲。
Well, I think that the headline is that their iPhone cycle continues to be historic, tremendous.
这个周期快结束了，而且，你知道，明年他们得面对高基数。
We're near the end of that, And, you know, next year they have to comp it.
所以我觉得那是个大问题。
And so I think that's a big question.
我的意思是，从历史和合理角度来看，你知道，在iPhone这一代产品经历了20%以上的激增之后，增长会放缓。
I mean, historically and reasonably, you know, growth would slow after the 20% plus type surge you've had in this iPhone generation.
而且，你知道，这还伴随着非常疯狂的宏观环境，对吧，供应链也面临挑战。
And, you know, that's coupled with this really crazy macro, right, where supply chain is challenged.
对于一家历来想要什么就能得到什么的公司来说，苹果现在想要什么却不一定能得到，这确实很难。
It's hard for a company that has historically been able to get what it wants, when it wants, Apple to get what it wants, when it wants.
而且，你知道，这对他们来说是个新的挑战。
And, you know, that's a new challenge for them.
而且，你知道，在股价处于历史高位的情况下，对于一家伟大的公司来说，这个局面真的很有意思。
And, you know, with the stock at really historically high kind of valuations, the setup is really kind of interesting, I think, for a great company.
为什么这次iPhone周期特别强劲？
Why was this iPhone cycle so strong specifically?
你知道，这是个非常好的问题。
You know, that's a really great question.
我觉得苹果产品做得好，这次iPhone也做得很好。
I think that Apple makes great products, and I think they made great iPhones here.
我觉得很多人在疫情期间买了iPhone 12，而其中很多iPhone 12现在都需要更换了。
I think that a lot of people buy an iPhone 12 during the pandemic, and a lot of those iPhone twelves need to be replaced.
所以这有点像一个小婴儿潮，是之前那个繁荣期的一个回声。
And so it's kind of a a baby boomlet, kind of an echo of that boom that we had.
所以手机已经坏了。
So phones have died.
它们不得不被更换，而苹果也推出了一些很棒的产品，人们都去买了。
They've had to be replaced, and Apple's made some great devices and people have gone to them.
对。
Right.
然后还有一个问题，就是哪些iPhone实际上能运行苹果的智能服务。
And then there's also the issue of which iPhones are actually able to run the Apple intelligence services.
我的意思是，我记不太清具体是什么了，但我觉得上一款机型就是那个需要你……才能获得苹果那个……显然，财报中出来的另一个头条新闻是他们谈到的供应限制。
I mean, I can't remember exactly what it was, but I think it was the last model was the one I think you had The to get to get the Apple other headline obviously that came out of the results was the supply constraints that they talked about.
有趣的是，蒂姆·库克似乎很明确地区分了内存芯片短缺和他们在台积电看到的先进节点或先进处理器（我想iPhone需要的那种）的供应限制。
And the interesting thing was Tim Cook, he very much seemed to delineate between the memory chip crunch and then the supply constraints that they're seeing at TSMC for these advanced nodes or the advanced processors, I guess, that iPhones need.
对。
Right.
考虑到公司这么强的周期性，你在做长期估值的时候，是怎么把供应链限制因素考虑进去的？
How do you factor in supply constraints into your model when you think about the long term valuation of the company given that it's so cyclical?
对。
Yeah.
你看，我觉得首先，这通常不是你需要去考虑的事情。
Look, the first thing I think is this is not something you normally have to think about.
我是说，真的，我都不记得苹果什么时候经历过这种持续的压力。
I mean, really, I can't really remember when there's been this kind of sustained pressure on Apple.
而且，真的，一代人的时间里，他们一直是行业里的老大，但现在不是了。
And for really a generation, they've been the big man on the block, and they're not right now.
不过，归根结底，这看起来不太可能是永久性的，你知道，市场总会找到办法，满足苹果的大部分需求，世界也会恢复正常。
And so it does, at the end of the day though, seem that this is unlikely to be permanent, that, you know, the market will find a way to make, you know, much of what Apple needs and that the world will normalize.
我只是不知道什么时候。
I just don't know when.
而且，我在想，对于苹果这样的公司，长期现金流折现模型里的终值，我有点自己的看法。
And I'm kinda in my kind of thought about what the terminal value is for an Apple and a long term kind of DCF.
我不会在接下来的几年里把这个因素考虑进去。
I'm not gonna have that there for a couple of interim years.
这个因素会存在，而且会持续多久还是个问号。
It's going to be there and it's going to be a question mark about how long that continues.
对。
Right.
你说苹果现在不是行业老大了，你这么说具体是指什么？
When you say Apple is not the big man on the block now, I mean, what's the context in what you're saying to this?
肯定有AI的故事，但你这么说还有别的意思吗？
There's certainly the AI story, but how else are you referring to that story there?
其实主要就是AI的故事。
Well, it's really it's the AI story.
对吧？
Right?
就是说，AI在台积电那边占用了太多的内存产能。
I mean, sucked up so much capacity in memory at TSMC.
你知道，他们现在不是那些公司增长的主要驱动力，也不是主要的利润来源。
You know, the you know, they're not the main driver of growth at those companies today and the main source of profit.
而且，你知道，这让他们处于一个不同的位置。
And, you know, that's just a different place for them to sit.
你知道，最终这还是会反映在苹果不得不提高价格，而且拿不到想要那么多产品。
You know, it does, at the end of the day, get reflected in, you know, Apple having to charge more and not be able to get as much product as it wanted.
最终，消费者会感受到AI带来的这种压力，但这就是现状。
And ultimately, that's the consumer kind of feeling the AI pension that way, but that's what's going on.
对。
Right.
这其实是我没想到的，就是当你考虑公司对台积电的议价能力时，这很大程度上取决于他们下的订单大小，而iPhone曾经是主导产品。
And so that's actually something I hadn't think about, which is that when you think about leverage that companies have with TSMC, it very much depends on the size of the orders that they're placing and where the iPhones used to be the dominant product.
现在一切都集中在GPU上，这让他们更难获得产能。
Guess now everything is focused on GPUs and that's making it harder for them to get that capacity.
昨晚的电话会议上谈到了价格上涨的问题。
Talked a little bit about rising prices last night on the call.
那你在建模的时候是怎么考虑这个因素的？
How are you factoring that into your modeling?
嗯，其实就是凭感觉去估算一下。
Well, you know, it's you kind of stick your finger in the wind and try and get at it.
说实话，没人能确切知道。
You know, nobody really knows precisely.
这没有什么特别的秘诀。
There's no great secret sauce to it.
我们确实知道的是，你可以回顾很多年，看到iPhone销量偶尔出现一次高峰，第二年通常都会慢很多，要么持平，要么下滑。
What what we do know is that you can go back for, you know, years and years and see when they have these occasional spikes and iPhone sales one year, the next year, it's always been a much slower year, flattish or down.
所以，这种模式似乎也支持这个观点。
And, you know, so the pattern would seem to argue for that.
另外，还有一点就是他们可能会提高手机的价格。
And then the noise is they're gonna be charging more for phones.
这就会带来一些价格敏感性的问题。
There's some price sensitivity.
对于苹果产品，人们可能不太在意价格，而且他们还有一款新的高价折叠手机要加入进来。
People probably are willing to be less price sensitive for Apple products than others, and they've got a new premium priced foldable phone that's gonna be in the mix.
对。
Yeah.
可能会有所变化。
Might be changing.
我是说，两万到两万五千美元，大概就是人们讨论的价格范围吧。
I mean, $202,500 bucks up to that much, I guess, is what people are talking.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
而且，确实有一个小众市场。
And, you know, there's definitely a niche.
我不认为这是主流，但确实有一些东西
I don't think it's mainstream, but there's stuff
你不觉得这对公司来说会很重要吗？
don't you don't think you don't think it's gonna it's gonna be big for the company?
我觉得它大概会占销售额的几个百分点，就是低到中个位数的比例，而且价格会很高，大概是两倍的价格。
I think it's gonna be, you know, a few percent of sales, you know, a low to mid single digit percent of sales at, you know, a real premium price and, you know, kinda two x the price.
所以可能比那个销售额的百分比还要高一些。
And so it might be, you know, higher than that kind of percent of sales.
但在这个范围内，会有一些其他设备的蚕食，而且还会有一个很难比较的同期数据。
And, you know, within that, though, there's gonna be some cannibalization from other devices, and and there's gonna be this difficult comp.
所以我觉得最终还是会稳定下来，苹果在九月份季度之后，面对强劲的同期对比时，销售增长会比现在慢很多。
So I think it still settles out that Apple, after, you know, the September quarter, when you have to face the music of strong comps, sales are gonna be, you know, much slower than they are today.
对。
Right.
我们一会儿再回到折叠屏手机的话题。
We'll come back to the foldable phone in a in a second.
昨晚财报中另一个有趣的部分是服务收入。
The services revenue was the other interesting part of last night's results.
所以这个业务预计会有所放缓，有趣的是，我认为服务的利润率也下降了，他们把这归因于服务中不同的产品组合。
So there was some There's expected to be some deceleration in that business, and the interesting part was that I believe the margin also came down for services, which they attributed to a different product mix in services.
这对我来说挺有意思的，增长在放缓，利润率也在下降。
This was kind of interesting to me, fact that growth was coming down, margin was coming down.
你对他们的解释满意吗？
Were you satisfied by the explanation there?
这个业务到底怎么回事？
What's going on in that business?
嗯，我其实不太担心。
Well, I'm not terribly concerned.
他们这个季度服务业务增长了，我记得是12%。
They were growing, I think, 12% in the quarter in services.
你知道，在他们提到外汇影响的指引里，隐含的意思可能是九月份季度会放缓到10%左右。
You know, I think the implicit in the guidance when they talked about foreign exchange is that they decelerate maybe to 10% in the September quarter.
所以，确实是在慢慢减速。
You know, so things are slowing down some.
服务的利润率其实很高，所以上下波动一两个百分点真的只是四舍五入的误差。
The margin on services is really high, you know, and and so a couple of points here or there up or down is really a rounding error.
相对于服务和产品的组合来说，这根本不重要。
It doesn't matter relative to the, you know, mix of services versus products.
所以这些都还好。
And, you know, so all that's fine.
我确实觉得，服务增长的问题在于，你想想，你有了这个平台，应该能想出各种办法来赚服务的钱。
I do think that, you know, the the question of services growth is one of, you know, geez, you have this platform, you should be able to milk it 10 ways to Tuesday for services revenue.
但这里也有点限制，因为有一些反垄断的担忧。
But there is a little bit of a governor in that, you know, there's some antitrust concerns.
而且还要看他们能做好什么。
And and there's also just what can they do well.
他们在一些你想不到的事情上做得特别出色。
They've been incredibly strong at things you wouldn't think.
比如，他们在电影方面就做得很好。
Like, they've done great with movies.
他们在电视剧方面也做得很好，这你之前肯定没想到。
They've done great with TV shows, and you wouldn't have expected that.
我没想到蒂姆·库克领导的公司能做出这样的成绩，但事实就是这样。
I wouldn't have expected that from a Tim Cook led company, but there we have it.
对。
Right.
但是，
And but
说到《足球教练》，他显然是个超级粉丝。
At Lasso, I mean, you know, he he he was he's clearly a big fan.
是的。
Yeah.
他是《足球教练》的忠实粉丝。
He's a big fan of Lasso.
他们还拍了那部一级方程式的电影。
They did the Formula One movie.
他们又回到了正轨。
They got back in the fold.
而且，你知道，他们现在做得很好。
And, you know, they're they're doing great.
但是，你知道，我觉得在服务方面赚钱的方式，主要还是通过App Store，还有云服务，就是他们卖的云存储。
But, you know, the I think the role way you make money in services is, you know, through the App Store and, you know, through the cloud, I mean, the cloud storage that they sell.
而且我觉得App Store现在处于一个非常好的位置，对吧，这么多人在用AI写代码开发新应用，他们都没法把所有应用都上架到App Store。
And I think that the App Store is really in this great place, right, with so many people vibe coding new apps and they can't get them all out onto the App Store.
按理说，这应该为收入提供了一个健康的背景。
Presumably, you know, that should be a healthy backdrop for revenue.
但还有一个不确定因素，就是如果未来出现一种没有App Store的智能手机，所有东西都是AI界面，那会怎么样？
But then there's the imponderable is what happens if the future is some type of smartphone without an App Store where everything's an AI interface.
如果乔尼·艾维通过OpenAI或者其他什么方式把这个做成了，那会怎么样？
What happens if, you know, Johnny Ive makes that work through open AI or some such?
所以，这就是那个问题。
So there's that
也就是说，这正是我有点困惑的地方——在AI编程热潮的推动下，做个应用很容易，一下子就火了。
implied And I mean, that's what I was a little bit confused about was on the backs of the vibe coding, easy to make an app boom.
所以，服务收入，也就是App Store的收入，我猜他们似乎没有具体说明App Store到底表现如何。
That's why the services revenue the App Store, I guess, they didn't seem to break out exactly what was going on with the App Store exactly.
我本来以为，你知道，这应该会为那个类别的增长加速奠定基础。
I just I would have thought, you know, it would have set the stage for acceleration in that category.
对。
Yeah.
你知道，我们得再深入探究一下，不过如果让我猜的话，虽然我还没做过具体的调查，消费者确实花了很多时间在应用上，但可能有些时间花在了特定的应用上，比如大语言模型、AI应用，这可能会挤占其他时间，比如游戏时间，而游戏才是真正推动应用收入的关键。
You know, it's we'll have to kind of probe a little bit more, you know, but if I was to guess, you know, without having done survey work in this point exactly, you know, the consumer's doing a lot with apps, but maybe a little bit of time is being spent with some apps in particular, your LLMs, your AI apps, and maybe that's eating into to some of the other time spent gaming, which is really what drives the app revenue.
布伦特，在你走之前，我们聊聊电话会上没怎么讨论的话题。
Brent, before I let you go, let's talk about what wasn't discussed as much on the call.
关于开源和闭源模型的争论，我们知道苹果在AI方面采取了不同的态度，在自家构建方面没那么激进。
So this whole debate around open source and closed source models, we know that Apple has taken a bit of a different tone with AI, a little bit of a less aggressive tone in terms of its own build.
苹果似乎对此并没有发表什么看法。
Apple hasn't really seemed to opine on that at all.
我想知道你觉得他们在这个问题上的立场是什么，你觉得他们支持前沿实验室的考量是什么，但同时也得面对开源现在很流行这个现实。
And I wondered where you think they stand on the issue, what you think their calculus here is on supporting the frontier labs, but then also the reality that open source is popular right now.
对。
Right.
我觉得他们在App Store里放什么是一个问题，而且我敢肯定，他们会尽可能开放，只要法规允许。
Well, I think that what they put in the App Store is is one question, and I'm sure, you know, they're they're going to be as open as the regulations, you know, would be comfortable with.
他们不会去挑战极限。
They're not gonna push the envelope.
但我觉得这里有个监管问题。
But, you know, and I think there's a regulatory question.
至于他们自己用什么，显然他们以Gemini为基础，然后在此基础上做自己的定制。
In terms of what they use themselves, obviously, you know, they've wedded Gemini as the foundation, and then they do their own customization on top.
我觉得长期的问题是，Gemini是不是正确的选择，或者将来在中国以外的地方，是不是需要一些不同的东西。
You know, I think the the the longer term question is, you know, is Gemini the right answer, or does it need to be in the future, you know, something different outside of China?
显然，在中国，他们和阿里巴巴、通义千问有合作，还有另一个合作。
Obviously, in China, they've, you know, they've got a deal with Alibaba, with Quan, and another deal.
而且你知道，现在大语言模型在各地各自为政，这在一定程度上逼得他们不得不这么做。但将来，他们也许能像世界其他地方那样，根据任务选择最便宜的模型，混合使用各种非常便宜的开源模型，再加上前沿的极端情况。
And, you know, there's this regional balkanization of LLMs, which is forcing their hand to a degree, but, you know, in the future, maybe they'll be able to do what the rest of the world's moving towards, which is choose the cheapest model for the job, a mix of very inexpensive, you know, open source models from a range of players, and then the edge case on the frontier.
而且你知道，他们一直在增加研发投入，也许这样做的结果之一就是能在服务端提高效率和效果。
And, you know, they've been jacking up their spending on R and D, and, you know, maybe that'll be one outcome of it is they can build some, you know, more efficiency and effectiveness on the service end of it.
我漏掉了那个细节。
And I I I missed that one detail.
他们在中国和阿里巴巴有合作，用他们的模型吗？
Did they have a deal with with Alibaba in for in in China for for using models there?
对。
Yeah.
据我所知，那是他们在中国的少数几个来源之一，但仅限于中国。
That's my understanding is that's one of the few kind of sources in China for them, but strictly for China.
好。
Cool.
巴顿，我想谢谢你……哦，我忘了问你。
Well, Barton, I wanna thank you for oh, I I forgot to ask you.
你觉得你会买那个折叠iPhone吗？2500美元那个。
Are you are you gonna get the foldable iPhone, do you think, at 2,500?
我可能会……
That's what I
大概不会是我第一个想花钱买的东西。
was I'm probably it's probably not my first spend.
好吧。
Okay.
我不确定，感觉有点贵。
I don't know if I'm kind of expensive.
我会买。
I'm gonna get it.
我会买的。
I'm gonna get it.
我可能会是少数几个买的人之一，因为我跟大多数人聊过，他们都没我这么热情，但我觉得应该会挺有意思的。
I'm gonna be one of the only people apparently are gonna get it, because most people I talk to are actually not as enthusiastic as I am, but I think it should be interesting.
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好的。
Cool.
那跟我说说吧。
Well, tell me about it.
太好了。
Great.
好的。
Okay.
巴顿，感谢你来做客。
Well, Barton, I want thank you for coming on.
这位是巴顿·克罗克特，罗森布拉特证券的高级研究分析师，正在TITV接受采访。
That is Barton Crockett, senior research analyst at Rosenblatt Securities here on TITV.
昨晚亚马逊发布季度财报后，股价大涨。
Amazon shares jumped after its quarterly results last night.
AWS的增速比上个季度加快了九个百分点。
AWS growth accelerated by nine percentage points compared to last quarter's growth rate.
我想请瑞穗银行的互联网股票研究分析师劳埃德·沃姆斯利来聊聊我们应该关注什么。
I want to bring on Lloyd Walmsley, Internet equity research analyst at Mizuho, to talk more about what we should be paying attention to.
劳埃德，欢迎来到节目。
Lloyd, welcome to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
很高兴来到这里。
Great to be here.
谢谢你们的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
那我们就
So, let's
来聊聊AWS的增长加速吧。
talk about the AWS acceleration.
现在是什么在推动这个增长？
What is driving that right now?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得他们提到了两件大事。
So, I think it's two big things they called out.
第一，显然AI的增长非常惊人，他们正在通过Project Rainier上线新的产能。
One, obviously, AI is the growth there is tremendous, and they're bringing capacity online from Project Rainier.
所以一旦上线，他们就能立刻变现。
And so the minute they bring it online, they can monetize it.
第二件事他们谈到了芯片。
And then the second thing they talked about was chips.
你知道，训练芯片，这显然是AI的一部分，所以有重叠。
You know, the training chips, which is obviously part of AI, so it's overlapped.
并不是完全不同的东西。
It's not completely different.
然后还有Graviton芯片，你知道，他们看到这些芯片的需求非常旺盛，很大程度上也是因为AI。
And then the Graviton chips, you know, they're just seeing tremendous demand for those chips, largely largely also from AI.
所以这两件大事就是这些。
So those are the two big things.
另外，他们也在提升自己的人工智能相关服务，逐步向软件栈上层发展，无论是安全、呼叫中心产品，还是其他方面，他们在AI领域做了很多工作，这也对他们有帮助。
And then, look, they're also improving their own services around AI, sort of moving up the software stack, whether that's security, whether that's, you know, call center product, you know, they're doing a lot in and around AI that's helping them as well.
对。
Right.
他们提到了两个数字，AI相关收入的年化运行率是250亿美元，芯片的年化运行率也是250亿美元。
So they obviously they said these two figures, 25,000,000,000 run rate for AI related revenue, I think it was, and then $25,000,000,000 for the run rate for chips.
但他们没有详细说明这225亿美元的业务具体包含哪些内容。
And they didn't give us a whole lot of color in terms of what's inside those $225,000,000,000 businesses.
我们先从AI收入说起。
Let's start with the AI revenue.
你那边根据你的研究，有什么了解吗？
Do you have any sense on your end based on your research?
我的意思是，这个部分到底包括什么，不包括什么？
I mean, what are they including and excluding in that segment at all?
对。
Yeah.
所以这里面有好几个不同的部分。
So there's a bunch of different components.
我觉得最大的几个部分里，Tranium芯片算是其中之一。
I think the big the big ones are, you know, Tranium chips are part of that.
对。
Yeah.
那这部分就是芯片收入了。
And then that would be that would be the the chips revenue.
对吧？
Right?
其实这两个不是分开的收入类别。
Well, so these are not two separate buckets of revenue.
它们之间有相当大的重叠。
They there's significant overlap.
哦，好的。
Oh, okay.
好的。
Okay.
所以，就像你说的，他们披露的不多，但确实有很大一部分是重叠的。
And so, you know, to your point, they don't disclose that much, but there's there's significant overlap.
而且很多AI应用都离不开芯片。
And and so a lot of, you know, AI consumption involves chips.
我觉得这占了很大一部分。
And I think so I think that's a big part of it.
然后，Bedrock也是很重要的一部分。
And and then, you know, Bedrock is a huge part of it.
显然，他们的平台让企业客户可以部署任何他们想要的模型，并且由亚马逊来管理和托管。
Obviously, their platform where, like, you know, their enterprise customers can deploy any model they want and it have it managed and hosted by Amazon.
我觉得这个平台现在发展得特别快，因为越来越多的公司，从实验、做概念验证，开始转向大规模推理。
Like, I think that is on a complete tear as well as more and more companies who have been, you know, experimenting, running POCs and AI start to move into scaled inference.
这正是亚马逊的强项。
That is Amazon's wheelhouse.
对吧？
Right?
他们的推理成本非常低。
They have very low cost inference.
对。
Yeah.
而且他们的客户大部分数据都已经存在AWS上了。
And they've got all their customers who already have the bulk of their data sitting on AWS.
所以自然就成了运行AI推理的地方。
And so it's a natural place to run your AI inference.
现在他们把OpenAI的模型也纳入Bedrock了，这就更有吸引力了。
And that's only gotten more compelling now that they have OpenAI's models as part of bedrock as well.
对。
Right.
我在这里看到，我本应该注意到这一点，但肯定有重叠，因为AWS的总收入是42，这比25加25要低。
And I'm seeing here should have caught this, but there has to be significant overlap because the total revenue for AWS was 42, which is lower than 25 plus 25.
但我想转向比较亚马逊和其他大型科技公司，也就是那些已经发布财报的超大规模云服务商的业绩。
But I want to move to comparing Amazon's results to the other big tech companies, the hyperscalers that reported.
因为如果你看看谁在烧钱，谁没有，微软出来说，我们不会烧钱。
Because if you look at who was burning cash and who was not, Microsoft came out, they said, We are not going to burn cash.
亚马逊在烧钱。
Amazon was.
谷歌也在烧钱。
Google was.
谷歌的投资者在财报发布后最初让股价下跌，但亚马逊的投资者似乎并不那么担心。
Google investors initially sent the stock down after results, but Amazon, they didn't seem so concerned.
两家公司的云业务都有加速增长。
Both businesses had acceleration in their cloud businesses.
那你认为投资者反应不同的原因是什么？
So what do you attribute the difference to in the investors' reaction?
对。
Yeah.
所以我觉得有很多不好的，我甚至不会说是报告的问题。
So I think there's been a lot of bad I I wouldn't even say reporting.
我觉得在整个投资者社区和媒体社区里，人们都把谷歌和Meta的疲软归咎于资本支出和自由现金流的问题。
I think throughout the investor community, the press report press community, people have attributed the weakness at Google and Meta to this, like, CapEx and free cash flow issue.
这一点大家都不意外。
I don't think that surprised anybody.
而谷歌之所以表现疲软，是因为那个季度业绩不干净。
And I think what led to the weakness at at Google was it wasn't a clean quarter.
对吧？
Right?
他们当时在暗示下半年搜索增长会放缓。
They had they were talking down search growth in in the second half.
那是搜索业务首次未达预期，而他们之前一直表现强劲。
It was the first quarter where search actually missed and they've been clobbering numbers.
所以我觉得谷歌那边有些因素跟资本支出没关系。
So I think there were some factors at Google that were unrelated to the CapEx.
我接触的每个投资者，不管是在财报前还是财报后，都预期这个季度的资本支出会上升。
Like every investor I've spoken to before and after the quarter expected CapEx to go up this quarter.
所以我觉得那并不让人意外。
So I don't think that was the surprise.
让人意外的是核心业务出现了边际疲软。
I think the surprise was marginal weakness in the core business.
然后我们再看Meta。
And then you turn to Meta.
同样，所有人都预期资本支出会上升。
Again, everyone expected CapEx to go up.
让人意外的是，大家都以为他们会宣布跟像Anthropic这样的公司达成某种租赁协议。
The surprise was everybody expected them to announce some sort of rental deal with someone like Anthropic.
结果他们不仅没宣布任何协议，还在电话会上说，我们收到了很多提议，可能会做，但也可能不做，因为我们更愿意出售更高价值的智能，而不是仅仅提供我们自己的基础设施。
And not only did they not announce a deal, they got on their call and said, you know, we've gotten a lot of offers and we might do this, but like we might not because we'd rather sell a higher value intelligence than like our just our own infrastructure.
所以，虽然亚马逊也公布了资本支出上升，但就像你开场说的，增速达到了九个百分点。
And so whereas Amazon gets on and yeah, they spent the CapEx went up, but like to your to your intro point, nine points of acceleration.
而且我觉得过去一年多一直困扰亚马逊股价的一个问题就是，他们投入了大量资本支出，但AWS的增速却只是小幅提升，看起来不错但没那么惊艳，对吧？
And I think one of the problems that has bedeviled Amazon stock over the last year plus has been they're spending all this money in CapEx and they see this small little nice but not that impressive acceleration at AWS, right?
之前是三个百分点，后来变成四个百分点。
It was three points and then it became four points.
你知道，这还不错，但过去两年你花了2000亿美元。
You know, good, but like you're spending $200,000,000,000 over the last two years.
我们需要的不只是四个百分点。
Like we need more than four points.
而这个季度，我们看到了九个百分点，而且在通常利润率会下降的季度里，利润率创了新高。
And this quarter, we got nine points and we got record margins in a quarter where margins usually come down.
而且他们在电话会议里说的所有内容都表明，这些利润率不是偶然的，应该会继续保持健康，而且AI业务的利润率本身也在按计划推进，甚至领先于核心云业务。
And everything they said on their call suggested that these margins weren't unusual and should should continue to be very healthy and that the AI margins themselves are are on track to to you know, tracking ahead of the core cloud business.
所以，我们终于在亚马逊看到了我们期待已久的东西。
So, like, we're finally getting everything we've been wanting for a long time at Amazon.
再看看Meta和谷歌，它们的季度业绩就不那么干净利落。
Whereas you look at Meta, you look at Google and there was just not they weren't clean quarters.
对。
Right.
所以我觉得问题不在底线。
And so I don't think it the bottom line.
我觉得不是资本开支的问题。
I don't think it was the CapEx.
也不是负自由现金流的问题。
I don't think it was the negative free cash flow.
我觉得如果Meta在AI产品上能大放异彩，没人会那么在意资本开支。
I think if Meta was knocking the ball off on an AI product, no one would be as concerned on the CapEx spending.
问题是，除了又开一个新篇章，大家根本不知道他们到底在做什么。
The problem is no one even knows what they're building really beyond like another chapter.
那我问你一个问题。
So let me ask you.
那在AWS这块，你觉得这个增长能持续吗？
So on the AWS front, do you think the growth is sustainable?
利润率扩大，能持续吗？
The margin expansion, is it sustainable?
你预期怎么样？
What are you expecting?
对。
Yeah.
所以我们预计第三季度增长会再次回升。
So we're expecting growth to pick up again in the third quarter.
第二季度增长大约是42%，第三季度也是这个水平。
We're at about 42% of growth in the second quarter in the third quarter.
然后我们确实预计利润率会环比小幅下降，但总体上还是会维持在这个区间。
And then we do expect margin to come down sequentially a little bit, but broadly continue at you know, in this range.
我觉得，某种程度上，我们在建模时尽量保守一些。
I think, you know, to some extent, we try to be conservative in our in our modeling.
而且，你知道，我们比他们对第三季度营业收入的指引稍微高一点。
And, you know, we're a hair ahead of their guidance for operating income for the third quarter.
我觉得他们很有可能在第三季度甚至到明年都保持这个利润率水平，AWS业务也是这样。
You know, I think it's quite possible that they hold this level of margin and the AWS business in into the third quarter into next year.
有一点我们显然在密切关注的是折旧，随着所有资本支出的增加，折旧的增长也应该会继续加快。
One thing obviously that that we're looking closely at is depreciation, you know, that that growth should continue to pick up as well with all the CapEx.
所以这可能会对未来的利润率产生一些压力。
And so that, you know, that could weigh on margin a little bit going forward.
但是，是的。
But Yeah.
总的来说，我觉得这个季度结束后，我们对AWS以及其中AI部分的中期利润率结构更有信心了。
Broadly speaking, I think we came out of this quarter feeling significantly better about the medium term margin structure at at, AWS and within the AI component of that as well.
你怎么看安迪·贾西关于亚马逊自家模型的评论？
What did you make of Andy Jassy's comments on Amazon's own models?
结合最近的报道，你对这些评论有什么看法？
And what did you make of those comments in the context of recent reporting?
有内部消息说他们裁掉了AGI团队的一些人。
Insider had reported that they have trimmed staff in their AGI group.
Nova模型系列一直是亚马逊的一个问题。
And the Nova model family been a It's been a question for Amazon.
它到底有多好？
How good is it?
他们投入了多少？
How much they're investing in it?
他在回答这个问题时一开始就说，如果我们不自己开发模型，我们仍然会致力于提供多样化的选择。
I mean, he started his entire response to the question saying, If we didn't build our own models, we would still be committed to offering a lot of variety.
话虽如此，我们仍在推进Nova模型。
That said, we are still pursuing Nova models.
我有点搞不清楚他们到底是不是真的在优先考虑自己开发模型。
I find myself a little bit confused as to whether or not they are actually prioritizing building their own models.
你怎么看？
Where do you sit on that?
我觉得这个问题问得很好。
I think that's a great question.
我们听贾西讲话的时候，第一反应确实是他听起来像是加大了在自研模型上的投入和关注，当然，我紧接着的第一反应就是，哎呀。
And when we listened to Jassy, our first instinct was it does sound like an uptick in how much work they are putting into or focus they're putting in on their their own models, which and, of course, my my first reaction after that is, uh-oh.
他们是不是要迎来一个大的投资周期，就为了在顶尖模型上跟别人较劲？
Do we have a big investment cycle coming as they, you know, try to to to keep up with the Joneses on a frontier model?
我觉得，昨晚跟公司那边聊过之后，再仔细想想，其实这事没那么新鲜。
I think after, you know, catching up with the company last night and and and talking through this, they have you know, I don't think it's as new as it sounded.
他们推出Nova系列已经有一段时间了。
Like, they've had the Nova family for quite some time.
相关的训练和成本都已经包含在基础投入里了。
The training and costs associated with that is in the base.
他们在这方面已经做了好几年了。
They've been working on these for a few years.
而且我觉得不会像Meta那样，比如全员上阵，不惜一切代价去竞争前沿模型。
And then and then I don't think it's going to be a anything like, for example, what we saw at Meta in terms of just, you know, all hands on deck, invest whatever it takes to compete at the frontier.
这看起来是一个更负责任、更有纪律的做法，既能拥有强大的内部模型，又不会花太多钱。
This seems like a much more responsible disciplined effort to have a strong internal model without, you know, breaking the bank.
所以，他们在这方面的立场看起来更加克制和理性。
So, it seems like their position on this is much more disciplined and rational.
对。
Right.
更像苹果的风格，就是不会把所有东西都砸进去。没错。
A more Apple esque in terms of we're not going to throw everything at the kitchen sink Exactly.
关于这一点，很好。
On this Great.
好的，劳埃德，感谢你来做客。
Well, Lloyd, I want to thank you for coming on.
这位是劳埃德·沃姆斯利，瑞穗银行的互联网股票研究分析师，在TITV节目上。
That is Lloyd Walmsley, Internet Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho here on TITV.
我们刚刚结束了科技公司财报密集发布的两周，在本周的编辑精选节目中，我们请来了联合执行编辑马丁·皮尔斯和专题编辑尼克·温菲尔德，来聊聊他们对这一切的看法。
We are wrapping up a big couple weeks of tech earnings, and in this week's edition of the Editor's Cut, we're bringing on Martin Peers, co executive editor, and Nick Wingfield, our features editor, for their view on all of it.
马丁和尼克，欢迎来到节目。
Martin and Nick, welcome to the show.
很高兴你们又来了。
It's great to have you back.
马丁，你一直在研究所有大型科技公司的财报。
So, Martin, you have been studying all the big tech earnings at large.
我们已经看到了三大，或者如果你把Meta也算作超大规模企业的话，四大超大规模企业发布了财报。我们不太喜欢这样。
We've had the three, or if you call Meta a hyperscaler, the four big hyperscalers that have reported We don't like it.
它们都是大型科技公司，我一直在仔细听财报电话会议。
They're all big tech companies and I've been exhaustively listening to the earnings call.
哪个最让你印象深刻？
Which one stood out to you the most?
Meta的财报电话会议可能是最有趣的，因为其他公司，其他云服务公司，都在资本支出上花了大钱，但他们都表示无法满足AI的需求，所以他们非常有信心这些投入会带来回报。
The Meta call is probably the most interesting because the other companies, the other cloud firms, they're all spending a fortune on CapEx but all of them say that they cannot meet demand for AI and so they feel very confident that the money they're spending will generate a return.
我觉得他们都说了，一旦他们能拿到投资中的服务器和芯片，一旦能投入运营，他们就有客户需求。
I think they all say that as soon as they can get the servers and the chips that they're investing in, as soon as they can get that into operation, they have demand from customers.
这可以理解。
That's understandable.
但Meta这边，他们并没有外部客户。
Meta on the other hand doesn't have any outside customers.
马克·扎克伯格看起来非常犹豫，不确定自己是否要进入这个业务领域。
Mark Zuckerberg seems extremely undecided whether he wants to go into that business.
相反，他用一种非常未来主义的方式谈论五年后，我们数十亿人将使用个人超级代理来处理从恋爱关系到家庭管理的一切事务。
And instead, he talks in this very futuristic way about five years' time, billions of us who are going to be using personal super agents to do everything from handling our romantic relationships to managing our homes.
我的意思是，这种对未来的愿景实在让人难以相信。
I mean, this is a vision of the future which is just not believable.
我得说，如果我是那家公司的投资者，我会考虑退出，因为我觉得他——这就是问题所在。
I mean, I have to say if I was an investor in that company, I would be looking for the exit because I think he's I mean, this is the issue.
他可以随心所欲，而且他正在为一个难以让人相信的未来投入巨额资金。
He can just do whatever he wants and he is spending a fortune on a future that is hard to believe.
或者，但换个角度看，你也可以说Meta有选择权，对吧？
Or, but I mean, to flip our argument, you could say that Meta has options, right?
你可以说他们还有好几条路可以走，而且都能赚大钱。
You could say they could go a couple different ways and still make a ton of money.
嗯，他们确实有一条能赚钱的路，就是把算力租出去。
Well, they could go one way to make some money, which is to rent out that compute.
但扎克伯格已经表达得很清楚了，他其实并不想这么做。
But Zuckerberg has made it pretty clear he doesn't really want to.
他对此并没有多大热情。
His heart is not in it.
所以我不太明白你说的另一种情况是指什么？
So I don't know when you say the other way, what's the other way?
意思是，他
Mean, he's
只是
just
在疯狂烧钱。
burning the cash.
说清楚点，他不是在烧钱，虽然也快差不多了，其实真的很接近了。
He's not burning cash to be clear, although they're close to it, but they're actually very close to it.
但他确实花了大价钱。
But he's spending a fortune.
对。
Right.
尼克，过去几周的财报里有什么让你特别关注的吗？
Nick, anything stand out to you from the earnings the past couple of weeks?
嗯，我昨天特别关注了苹果，那里正在发生一场权力交接。
Well, I was paying especially close attention to Apple yesterday, and we have a changing of the guard that's going on there.
这是蒂姆·库克最后一次，或者说九月将是他在CEO任上的最后一个季度。
This is Tim Cook's last or September will be the last quarter as CEO.
他要把接力棒交给约翰·特努斯。
He's handing the baton off to John Ternus to take over.
而且，我不知道这是不是苦乐参半的时刻，但确实有一些关于AI的有趣问题要面对。
And you have this I don't know if it's a bittersweet moment, but you certainly have some interesting issues coming up with AI.
一方面，iPhone的销量相当强劲。
On the one hand, iPhone sales are pretty strong.
公司整体表现不错，但在零部件价格上吃了大亏，而且下一季度的产品供应会受限。
The company performed pretty well, but they're getting killed on component prices and are going to be supply constrained on their products going into the next quarter.
而且现在可以说，在那之后，他们的前景其实看起来还不错。
And now you could argue that after that, things are actually looking decent for them.
他们将要推出一款可折叠iPhone，我们和其他媒体都报道过，这款手机价格会非常昂贵，非常昂贵，但可能会推动高端市场的换机潮。
They're going to introduce, we and others have reported, a foldable iPhone, which will be very expensive, very expensive, but possibly drive an upgrade cycle for the high end of the market.
我觉得苹果现在感觉挺好的。
Apple, I think, is feeling pretty good.
另外，大家都知道，苹果在AI上的投入一直不算多。
Also, everyone knows, not been spending as much on AI.
所以，到了今年下半年和2027年，这可能会看起来是个明智的选择。
So that may start to look smart headed into the back half of the year and 2027.
马丁，如果你稍微回顾一下蒂姆·库克在公司的这段时期，我是说，抱歉。
Martin, if you just reflect for a minute on Tim Cook's era at the company, mean, I'm sorry.
这太令人兴奋了。
It's very exciting.
简直让人兴奋得不得了。
It's beyond exciting.
两位数的增长。
Double digit growth.
我喜欢这个词。
Love that word.
一切。
Everything
两位数。
Double digit.
所以股价实际上涨了20倍，在他任期内增长了超过20倍。
So 20 times the stock price actually, grew more than 20 fold over his era.
所以他也可以说这是两位数的增长。
So he can claim the double digit there as well.
但我想，大家一直有个疑问，就是，下一个iPhone会是什么？
But one of the questions, I guess, has been, well, what is the next iPhone?
下一个重磅产品是什么？
What's the next big product?
苹果的下一个大事是什么？
What's the next big thing for Apple?
苹果还是一家以创新为核心的公司吗？
Is Apple still an innovation focused company?
还是说，它只是年复一年地做一些小修小补？
Is it just marginal improvements year after year?
你觉得他会把故事带到哪里，你觉得特纳斯会接过去往哪走？
Where do you think he leaves that story and where do you think Ternus takes it?
我觉得，从为苹果投资者赚钱的角度来看，库克绝对是一位出色的CEO。
Well, I think you'd have to say that Cook has been an excellent CEO in terms of making money for investors in Apple.
这显然是上市公司必须做的主要事情之一。
And that's obviously one of the main things that public companies have to do.
可以说他在确保未来方面做得不够好，因为苹果确实没有太多创新。
You might say he hasn't been as good at assuring the future because Apple hasn't really innovated very much.
这是特努斯希望能解决的问题。
That's something that Ternus hopefully can fix.
但问题是，尽管扎克伯格等人认为AI可能会改变这一点，我们仍然都在用iPhone。
But the problem is we all still use iPhones despite people like Zuckerberg and others thinking that maybe AI will change that.
我对此持怀疑态度。
I'm sort of skeptical.
我认为人们会在很长一段时间内继续使用智能手机，而且你必须相信苹果会从iPhone中赚钱，也许增长不多，但会像现在一样赚很多钱，持续相当长的时间。
I think that people will use smartphones for a good long while and you have to believe that Apple will make money from iPhones, maybe not growing very much, but make a huge amount as they do now for quite a long time.
所以它可能不是一只成长股，但你可以通过分红赚很多钱，而且很可靠。
So it's not a growth stock, maybe, but you can make a whole lot of money in dividends and it's reliable.
所以我认为他做得相当不错，但他非常谨慎，这可能是他真正的问题。
So I think he's done a pretty good job, but he's been very cautious and that's the real issue with him maybe.
尼克，你觉得特努斯会改变这个局面，把它变成一个增长故事吗？
Nick, do you think Ternus will change the story at all, turn it into a growth story?
他能不能推出大量全新的创新产品给客户和消费者呢？
Will he be able to introduce massively new innovative products for customers, consumers?
嗯，如果你相信那些报道的话，他们确实要进入一些新领域，而且这在约翰·特努斯作为公司顶级硬件负责人期间已经发生了。
Well, if you believe the reports out there, they are going to enter some new categories, and that's happened under John Ternus as one of the top hardware people at the company.
你知道，有传闻说会有各种智能家居产品，比如某种智能家居中枢、门铃摄像头之类的。
You know, there's talk of, a variety of smart home products, you know, some kind of smart home hub, a doorbell cam, things like that.
但这些领域听起来都不算特别大。
But none of these categories sound all that big.
我的意思是，这些其实都是亚马逊、谷歌等公司已经深耕多年的成熟领域。
I mean and these are these are sort of well established categories that Amazon and others, Google, have been in.
我们真的得拭目以待。
We'll have to see, really.
我觉得他们最需要解决的是AI，要展示他们在AI方面能做什么。
I think the biggest thing that they have to solve is AI to show what they can do with AI.
我的意思是，也许他们能重新发明iPhone。
I mean, maybe they can reinvent the iPhone.
他们最大的潜在竞争对手，理论上来说，就是OpenAI，他们挖走了很多苹果的人，几百个苹果员工，正在开发一系列设备。
Their biggest looming competitor out there, just theoretically, is OpenAI, which has hired all these Apple people, hundreds of Apple people, is working on a family of devices.
苹果对此非常不满，甚至担心他们窃取商业机密，所以已经起诉了OpenAI。
Apple is so upset over this and the possibility that they're stealing trade secrets from Apple that they've even sued OpenAI.
所以我觉得，如果他们能做到的话——我不知道你个人体验如何，但对我来说，最让人头疼的已经不是电池了。
So I think that if they can I don't know what your personal experience is like, but my most frustrating thing is no longer the battery?
以前那些让我恼火的问题，现在都不是问题了。
It's no longer a variety of the things that used to tick me off.
真正让我头疼的是，Siri根本没法按我的要求做事。
It's really that I cannot get Siri to do the things I want it to do.
这里面的潜力太大了。
There's so much possibility there.
所以我认为，如果苹果能把AI做好，他们确实有机会重新定义iPhone。
So I think that they do have an opportunity to reinvent the iPhone if they can get AI right.
对。
Yeah.
马丁今天早上在办公室就跟我说了，他不会买折叠屏iPhone的。
Well, Martin established to me earlier this morning in the office, he will not be buying the foldable iPhones.
对，折叠屏iPhone，那是个小众市场。
Yeah, the foldable iPhone, that's a small market.
我知道尼克不同意我的看法，但我——
I mean, know Nick doesn't agree with me on this, but I-
你
Are you
会买吗，尼克？
going to buy it, Nick?
你会买吗？
Are you going to buy it?
不，我不会买，但会有人买的。
No, I won't buy it, but there will be people that buy it.
会有非常有钱的人买，但市场很小。
There will be very rich people who buy it, but it's a small market.
我的意思是，这要2500美元，他们能卖给多少人呢？
Mean, it's $2,500 How many people can they get?
我们等12月季度结束后再看看市场反应吧。
Let's talk after the December quarter and see how the market responds to it.
好的。
All right.
好的，感谢两位今天来参加节目。
Well, I want to thank you both for coming on.
他们是Martin Peers和Nick Wingfield，我们The Information的两位编辑。
That is Martin Peers and Nick Wingfield, two of our editors here at The Information.
在节目最后，我想聊聊蒙大拿州一个新项目，它几乎允许任何人获取并尝试尚未获得FDA批准的药物。
To close out the show, I want to talk about a new program in Montana that will allow almost anyone the right to access and try drugs that have not yet been approved by the FDA.
从很多方面来说，这个项目本身就是一场实验，这也是我们周末深度报道的主题，由我们的健康与科学记者Doxer Markus撰写。
In many ways, the program itself is an experiment, and it is the subject of our weekend big read written by our health and science reporter, Doxer Markus.
我想请Amy来分享更多她的报道内容。
I want to bring on Amy to share more about her reporting.
艾米，欢迎来到节目。
Amy, welcome to the show.
很高兴你能再次来。
It's great to have you back.
谢谢。
Thank you.
也很高兴见到你。
Great to see you.
你的报道主要围绕一个叫Infinida的创业加速器，以及他们在蒙大拿州做的工作。
So your story centers around this startup accelerator called Infinida and the work that they're doing in Montana.
Infinida是什么？
What is Infinida?
我们先从这儿说起吧。
Let's start there.
Infinida最出名的是作为一个创业加速器，最初在洪都拉斯附近的普罗佩拉岛上运作。
Infinida is best known as being this startup accelerator that worked first in Prospera, which is an island off of Honduras.
他们由蒂姆·德雷珀等人资助，目标是加速药物研发，帮助生物技术公司获得药物批准，把药物送到患者手中。
They're funded by Tim Draper and others, and their goal is to try to accelerate drug development and to help biotechs get, you know, get drug approvals and get drugs to patients.
好的。
Okay.
那他们现在在蒙大拿州做什么呢？
And so what are they doing in Montana now?
对，没错。
Yeah, exactly.
嗯，这两个地方有什么共同点呢？
Well, what do those two places have in common?
当我采访Infinida的CEO时，他解释说Prospera并没有完全按照他们预想的那样发展。
When I spoke with CEO of Infiniti, he was explaining that Prospera hadn't worked out exactly as they imagined.
药企们虽然很兴奋，但基本上跟他说，那接下来呢？
Drug companies, you know, they were excited, but sort of said to him, Well, what happens next?
比如，有了这些数据，我们真的能拿到药物批准吗？
Like with all this data, are we going to be able to get drug approvals?
他开始觉得蒙大拿可能是个更好的地方。
And he started thinking that Montana might be a better place.
蒙大拿，和美国许多州一样，通过了“尝试权”法律，这项法律最初是为了让非常非常病重的人能够获得尚未被美国食品药品监督管理局批准的实验性药物。
Montana, like many states in The United States, has passed a right to try law, which is a law that initially started to let very, very sick people get access to experimental drugs that hadn't yet been approved by the Food and Drug Administration.
但多年来，蒙大拿在向更多其他患者开放药物获取方面，已经远远超过了美国其他州。
But over the years, Montana has gone much farther than other states in The United States in opening up access to lots and lots of other patients.
Infiniti看到了在那里进行他们实验的机会。
And Infiniti saw an opportunity there to try their experiment.
所以他们在这里进行的实验，就是这样一个想法：嘿，有些药物还没有得到FDA的批准。
So the experiment here that they're running is, it's the idea that, hey, there are drugs that are not yet approved by the FDA.
这不是给所有人的。
It's not for anyone.
不是任何人都能获得这些药物。
It's not like anyone can access these drugs.
这是一部分特定人群，但比其他州的人群范围更广，对吧？
It's a certain group of people, but it's a wider group of people than it would be in other states, right?
基本上，我们就是让他们有机会去试试这些药。
We're giving them access to try them out, essentially.
没错。
That is correct.
我的意思是，蒙大拿州的这个项目比其他大多数州都要扩展得更广，而且有一些不寻常的特点。
I mean, the Montana program expands on and has sort of unusual features than most other states.
我简单跟你说一下这些特点是什么。
And let me just briefly tell you what they are.
最主要的一点是，你不一定要病入膏肓，甚至不一定要病得很重。
Main one is you don't have to be terminally ill or even very sick at all.
当然，那些病重的人肯定会想用这个项目。
Certainly people who are will want to, you know, access this program.
但哪怕你是个健康的人，只是担心衰老，想用一些未经批准的疗法来延长健康寿命或者寿命，也可以。
But you could be just a healthy person who's worried about aging and wants to get access to unapproved therapies that might extend your health span or your lifespan.
所以这已经是一个独特之处了。
So that's already a unique feature.
但第二个也是最重要的特点是，根据蒙大拿州的规定，生物科技公司可以在证明药物确实有效之前就收取利润，也就是说，在证明之前就能赚钱。
But the second and most important feature is that companies, biotechs, they are allowed under the Montana rules to charge a profit, you know, generate profit even before proving that their drug actually does what it says it does.
所以这又是一个独特之处。
So that's another sort of unique feature.
而蒙大拿州上周终于公布了所有这些规则。
And Montana last week finally sort of like publicized the rules for all of this.
他们将设立州许可的实验治疗中心，你必须去那里，由在蒙大拿州有执照的医生给你开药。
They're going to have these state licensed experimental treatment centers that you have to go to where a doctor who's licensed to practice in Montana could give you a drug.
这就是Infinita介入的地方，他们正在组建一个实验性治疗审查委员会，由伦理学家、医生和科学家来审查治疗方案，并作为一种保护措施签字批准，为那些可能想尝试这些实验药物的患者提供保护。
And this is where Infinita comes in, they're starting experimental treatment review board where ethicists and doctors and scientists can review the treatment plans and sort of sign off as a kind of protection, you know, a sort of protection for patients who might want to access these experimental drugs.
确认一下，所以这不仅仅限于绝症患者。
And just to confirm here, so I mean, it's not just restricted to terminally ill.
那么对这个项目感兴趣的人群，是不是更多是那些关注长寿、想延长寿命的人？
So the pool of people who are interested in this program, I mean, is this more so the crowd that is interested in longevity and expanding their lifespan?
还是说他们仍然主要针对生病的人？
Or are they still focused on people who are ill?
现在大家最感兴趣的是哪方面？
Where does the massive interest lie right now?
这个问题问得好。
I mean, that's a great question.
其实我们还不完全清楚答案，因为这个项目上周才刚刚启动。
And we don't exactly know the answer to it yet because the program literally just got up last and week.
这些实验治疗中心需要开始运作，Infinita 正在运营的审查委员会，其他公司也可以加入并运营类似的委员会。
These experimental treatment centers have to start, the review board that Infinidos running, and other companies can come in and run boards too.
他们需要审查公司和患者提交的申请。
They need to, you know, review submissions by companies and by patients.
但我确实认为，这个项目背后的一个推动力是让那些对长寿药物感兴趣的人能够参与进来。
But I do think that one of the impetuses behind this program is to allow people who are interested in longevity drugs to come into this program.
我觉得硅谷那边很多兴趣就是来自这里。
And I think that's where a lot of the Silicon Valley interest is from.
就是布莱恩·约翰逊那帮人。
Brian the Brian Johnson crowd.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，但其他人，不只是布莱恩·约翰逊。
I mean, but other people, not just Brian Johnson.
我是说，可以是那些，你知道，像我们很多人都在考虑自己健康的人。
I mean, it can be people who, you know, like lots of us are thinking about our health.
完全同意。
Totally.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我的意思是，他不是唯一一个想活得更久的人。
I mean, he's not the only person that who wants to live longer.
你懂吗？
You know?
对，但没资源去做，因为再说一次，最大的区别之一就是你很可能得自掏腰包。
No, but didn't have resources to do it because, again, you are of the big differences is you're going have to pay out of pocket most likely.
我的意思是，你知道，是的，按照项目规定，药企可以主动提供免费治疗。
I mean, you know, yes, under the program's rules, a drug company could offer to give you free treatment.
而且项目里有个规定，如果你是蒙大拿州居民，这些实验性治疗中心会从他们每年分发药物给患者的净利润中拿出2%，用于资助那些想用但负担不起的居民。
And there is a feature in the program if you're a Montana resident, these experimental treatment centers are going to put aside 2% of their net annual profits from distributing, you know, providing the drugs to patients to go towards residents who might want access and can't afford.
但对我们其他人来说，大多数人，很可能都得自费。
But for the rest of us, most of us, you're probably going to be paying out of pocket.
所以你得有一定的经济能力，去支付那些尚未被证实、因此有风险的治疗。
So you're going to have to have some sort of resources available to pay for things that aren't yet proven and therefore have a risk.
没错。
Right.
好，那这就是这个项目的内容。
So, okay, so that's what the program is.
我们来聊聊大家对此的反应吧。
Let's talk about how people are reacting to it.
你采访了不少不同的利益相关方。
I mean, you talked to a number of different stakeholders.
我们先从医生说起吧。
Let's start with the doctors.
他们对这个项目怎么看，不管是蒙大拿州内还是州外的？
I mean, what do they think of this program inside Montana, outside Montana?
我猜你肯定听到了不同的意见。
I'm sure you got different opinions from people.
从医生的角度来看，他们得签字同意才行。
I mean, listen, from the doctor's perspective, they are going to have to sign off on this.
根据蒙大拿州的法律，你得有一个医疗提供者认为这是个好主意。
I mean, under the law in Montana, you have to have a healthcare provider who like thinks that this is a good idea.
你不能随便走进一个治疗中心就说，嘿，给我这个未经批准的药物。
You can't just like randomly go into a treatment center and say, Hey, give me this unapproved drug.
所以你得说服医生，让他觉得你有理由参加这个项目。
So you're going to have to persuade a doctor that there's a reason that you should do this program.
我觉得很多医生，当然也会有一些不愿意参与的。
And I think a lot of doctors I mean, there will be some who won't want to participate, of course.
但医生的目标就是让你好起来，让你能接触到一些治疗手段。
But doctors, their goal is to try to get you better, you know, to get you access to things.
如果他们觉得某种药有安全数据，虽然还没走完整个流程，那个很艰难的证明有效的流程，但可能对病人有好处，我觉得他们很可能会愿意。
And if they think that there's something that might benefit from a drug that has some safety data, but hasn't gone through a full, you know, process, an arduous process of showing that it works, it's effective, I think that they probably there will be doctors.
事实上，根据法律，蒙大拿州有一个医生在这个无限期支持的审查委员会里。
In fact, there is a Montana doctor by law on this infinitive backed review board.
这是法律的一部分。
That's part of the law.
你的委员会里必须有一个医生。
You need a doctor on your board.
对。
Right.
那患者呢？
And what about the patients?
你跟那些想参加这个项目的人聊过吗？
You spoke to people who are seeking to enroll in this program?
是的。
Yeah.
我是说，你看，我觉得肯定会有病人想参加，而且我跟一些特别想参加的人聊过。
I mean, look, I think that there will be patients that want to participate, and I spoke to some that are eager to participate.
我觉得对病人来说，最大的障碍是，第一，我负担得起吗？
I think, the big obstacle for patients is going to be, one, is this something I can afford?
第二，我住在蒙大拿州吗？或者我能去蒙大拿，并且在那里待上一段时间吗？
Two, do I live in Montana or can I get to Montana and spend some time in Montana?
第三，这也是所有现有的“尝试权”项目一直以来的大问题，就是这家生物技术公司，他们会不会让我用上药？
And three, and this has always been a big problem with all the existing Right to Try programs is, is this biotech company, are they going to let me have access?
因为那一直是最大的障碍。
Because that's always been the biggest obstacle.
生物技术公司，出于很多原因，我们可以聊几个，他们虽然同情你，但并不是总是愿意或者能够通过这些项目把药提供给你。
Biotech companies, for a lot of reasons, and we can talk about a few of them, don't always, even though they feel for you, always want to or can supply you with the drug as part of these programs.
为什么不行呢？
Why not?
你知道，我觉得大家都有一个印象，以为开发药物的人都是那种几十亿美元的制药巨头，当然他们确实是市场上的重要角色。
So, you know, I think people have this image that everyone who develops a drug is a huge billion dollar pharma company, and certainly they are important players in the market.
但生物科技公司也是重要的参与者，而他们并没有那么多钱。
But biotechs also are big players and they don't have as much money.
他们几乎每次进行临床试验的每个阶段都得去筹集资金。
They've got to raise money virtually every time for every phase of their clinical trial.
他们总是担心自己会资金耗尽。
They're always scared they're going to run out of money.
通常，如果要获得FDA批准，往往需要超过十年的时间才能走到终点。
It takes over a decade usually if you're trying to get FDA approval to just get it across the finish line.
很多公司在还没走到终点之前就把钱花光了，即使是对好药或者有前途的疗法也是这样。
And a lot of companies run out of money before they even make it across the finish line, even for good drugs, you know, even for promising therapies.
所以很多公司都很害怕。
So a lot of them are scared.
而且他们还担心，因为参加这个项目的人都是没法参加正式临床试验、不符合临床试验条件的人，而且他们往往病得很重，或者有一些问题导致他们不符合条件。
And then they're also scared because people who are access this program are people who can't be in a formal clinical trial, don't qualify for a clinical trial, and often they're very, very sick or often they have some issue that makes them not qualify.
如果出了什么事，FDA在联邦法律下有权，即使你完全遵守州项目的规则，如果你在争取FDA批准的药物，他们有权决定，嘿，你在蒙大拿州发药真是太好了，但我们得看看你更广泛的计划，因为蒙大拿州出了事。
If something bad happens, the FDA, you know, has the right under federal law, even if you're following all the rules under the state programs, if you're trying to get an FDA approved drug, they have the right to like decide, Hey, that's really nice of you that you're giving drugs out in Montana, but we're going to have to take a look at your broader program because something bad happened in Montana.
对。
Right.
所以这就涉及到第三个利益相关者了，我是说，其实有很多。
And so that sort of gets to the third stakeholder here, which is, I mean, well, there are many.
当然有监管机构，还有伦理学家。
They're certainly the regulators, but the ethicists.
我是说，你从伦理学界的人那里了解到他们是怎么看待这个问题的？
I mean, what did you glean from the folks in the ethics field on how they think about this issue?
是的。
Yeah.
首先，你知道，根据蒙大拿州的这个项目，你必须在实验性治疗审查委员会里有一位伦理学家。
So for one thing, you know, under this Montana program, you're required to have an ethicist on this experimental treatment review board.
所以我觉得这真的是这个项目的一个很好的特点。
So I think that's really a good feature of the program.
但总的来说，你知道，伦理学家们意见不一，这也在意料之中。
But overall, you know, I think ethicists are divided, as you might expect.
我的意思是，这很复杂，每周都有变化。
I mean, it's a weekly like it's complicated.
这真是
It's such
对，这确实是个难题。
a Yeah, it's a hard issue.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，一方面，超出FDA的监管范围会让很多伦理学家感到不安，因为所有这些规定都是为了保护你而设立的。
I mean, like, you know, on the one hand, you know, going outside sort of the purview of the FDA can make a lot of ethicists nervous because all these regulations are set up to protect you.
而且，即使是开发药物的医生或科学家，他们一开始很兴奋，觉得药物很有前景，但后来发现，嘿，这真的很危险，你知道吗？
I mean, and even doctors or scientists that are developing drugs, they get excited, they think it seems promising, and then they find out later, Hey, that's really dangerous, you know?
所以这些法律就是为了保护你而设立的。
And so these laws are set up to protect you.
但另一方面，正如一位也在董事会任职的伦理学家告诉我的，她说，别忘了那些看不见的坟墓，那些人是在等待FDA审批时去世的，或者是在等待那些因为资金耗尽而无法完成研发、最终失去好药的公司时去世的。
But on the other hand, as one of the ethicists told me, who's also serving on the board, she said, Don't forget about the invisible graveyard of people who, you know, died while waiting for the FDA to, you know, to rule on something, you know, or died while waiting for companies that couldn't get across the finish line because they ran out of money and lost access to a good drug.
你总是在权衡风险和收益。
Like you're always weighing the risks and the benefits.
但我觉得伦理学家对这个项目的一个担忧是，它把很多负担放在了你和我这样的消费者身上，让我们来决定是否要承担这些风险。
But one thing that ethicists, I think, have trouble with this program is like it does put a lot of burden on you, on you and me as consumers, you know, to decide if we want to take these risks.
而且我觉得，硅谷的做法一直是，让我们自己决定，对吧？
And I think, you know, the Silicon Valley way has been, let us decide, you know?
对。
Right.
我的意思是，所有这些创业者，基本上你在这个运动中听到的最响亮的声音就是，我们做得不够快。
I mean, all these entrepreneurs, I mean, basically the loudest voices that you hear in this movement seem to be, We aren't doing enough fast enough.
对，我们把决定权交给你了。
And yeah, we're giving you the decision.
但这正是关键所在，决定权应该在你手里。
But that's kind of the point is you should have the decision.
我最后一个问题是，你觉得这整体上说明了硅谷的什么问题？
Seems to My last question for you is really, what do you think this says about Silicon Valley at large?
看起来，资助这些项目的人，他们就是希望市场上有更多选择，归根结底就是这样。
Seems to be that people who fund these things, I mean, they want more choice on the market, and that's ultimately what it is.
完全正确。
Absolutely.
我觉得这个项目真的体现了硅谷的精神。
I mean, I think the Silicon Valley ethos is really seen in this particular program.
你读这个故事的时候，会发现有很多硅谷的想法、公司、资金和风险投资在支持这些理念。
When you read the story, you can see that there's a lot of Silicon Valley ideas and companies and money and venture capital that is supporting these ideas.
而且我觉得，有很多理由让我们需要非常非常谨慎地考虑改变这个体系。
And I think there's a lot of reasons why we need to think really, really carefully about changing the system.
我觉得他们有很多很好的观点。
I think they have lots of great points.
但我觉得，如果你生病了、害怕了，或者不太确定，当你没有所有信息的时候，这真的会给你带来很大的负担，你得去彻底了解所有细节。
But I think also, if you're sick or you're scared or you kind of don't know, it puts a lot of burden on you to like really understand all the ins and outs when you don't have all the information.
而且事实上，很多公司还没有完全掌握信息，很多医生也还不完全清楚，你就要自己做出这些重大决定。
And in fact, when many of the companies don't have all the information yet, many of the doctors don't have all the information yet, You're going to make these huge decisions on your own.
对。
Right.
好的，艾米，非常感谢你来做客。
Well, Amy, I want to thank you for coming on.
我建议大家去看看这篇报道。
I encourage everyone to check out the story.
这是我们周末的重头文章。
It is our weekend big read.
这位是我们的健康与科学记者艾米·多克瑟马卡斯，来自The Information。
That is Amy Doxermarkas, our health and science reporter here at The Information.
今天的节目就到这里。
That does it for today's show.
顺便提一下，我下周休假。
A quick note, I am off next week.
接下来的节目由我们的记者们代班主持，他们会把节目带得很好。
You'll be in great hands with our reporters who will be subbing in as guest hosts.
提醒大家，我们这档直播节目周一到周五上午十点播出。
A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at ten a.
（注：原文为 'ten a. M.'，结合上下文应为上午十点，此处已按自然口语补全语义）
M.
太平洋时间，下午一点。
Pacific, one p.
美东时间。
M.
晚上八点。
Eastern.
如果那个时间你没法收听， episodes可以在theinformation.com网站、我们的YouTube频道，或者你平时听播客的任何平台找到。
If you can't make it then, episodes are available on theinformation.com, on our YouTube channel, or wherever you get your podcasts.
记得在社交媒体上关注我们，包括X、Instagram、TikTok和LinkedIn。
Make sure to follow us on social media on X, Instagram, TikTok, and LinkedIn.
我已经很期待一周多后见到你们了，祝你们周末愉快。
I am already excited to see you whenever I see you in a week and a bit, but have a great weekend.
我们周一见。
We'll see you on Monday.
回头聊。
Talk soon.
先拜拜啦。
Bye bye for now.
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