前推特首席执行官打造AI网络基础设施，Waymo高速路扩展 | 2025年11月14日

对吧？

Right?

前沿模型，也就是所谓的万亿参数模型，更适合用于通用人工智能（AGI）。

The frontier models that are, you know, call it trillion parameter models, you know, more suited for AGI.

对吧？

Right?

更通用的人工智能。

More general purpose AI.

因此，有一类公司专注于追求AGI和前沿模型。

So there is there is one of the segment of companies that chase AGI frontier model.

这并不是dMatrix的关注点。

That is not what dMatrix is focused on.

我们专注于企业级的小型模型。

Are very focused on the enterprise class smaller model.

我问你一个问题。

Let me ask you this.

那么，目前产品开发到什么阶段了？

So so where is the product at now in its development?

你们已经完成芯片的开发了吗？

Have you have you finished the development of a chip?

你们已经把芯片卖给了客户吗？

Have you sold the chip to customers?

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

以上全部都是。

All of the above.

产品已经在客户手中了。

The product is in customer's hands.

他们正在测试该产品。

They are testing the product.

它正在试点中。

It's being piloted.

好的。

Okay.

这款CORSAIR芯片是你们的旗舰芯片。

This is the the CORSAIR chip is the flagship chip you have.

所以你们已经将CORSAIR芯片销售给了客户。

So you've sold the CORSAIR chip to customers.

谁在使用它？

Who's using it?

嗯，这是一种组合。

Well, it's a combination.

我认为我们的目标客户是超大规模云服务商、新兴云服务商、AI云服务商和主权云服务商。

So I think our target customers are hyperscalers, neo clouds, AI clouds, sovereign clouds.

所以我们拥有各个领域的客户。

So we have customers across the board.

目前，我们的客户数量超过了我们的处理能力，因此我们正在努力控制节奏。

Right now, we have more customers than we can handle, so we're just really trying to pace this.

好的。

Okay.

部署需要时间，对吧？

Deployments take time, right?

这不像你把东西扔过墙去，客户就能拿去直接使用。

This is not like you throw something over the fence and the customer can take it and run with it.

从我们把芯片交给客户开始，他们还需要十二个月才能真正将其投入生产，对吧？

From the time we give our chip to a customer, it takes them another twelve months to really deploy it in production, right?

我们需要提供大量的支持和指导。

And there's a lot of support and handholding that we have to do.

没错。

Right.

所以我们必须确保只承接我们能消化的量。

So we really have to make sure that we can only chew as much as we can digest.

对吧？

Right?

你们是用台积电制造芯片吗？

You guys are using TSMC to make the chip?

没错。

That's right.

我们所有的芯片都用台积电制造。

We use TSMC to make all our chips.

让台积电实际生产芯片有多难？

How hard is it to to get TSMC to to actually make the chip?

我们以前也接触过一些芯片公司。

We we we've talked to chip companies in the past.

听好了。

Look.

产能是个问题。

Capacity is an issue.

我的意思是，每个人都想用台积电。

I mean, everyone wants to use TSMC.

世界上能真正制造芯片的厂商只有寥寥几家。

There's only a couple players in the world that can actually make it.

在从他们那里获取或找到产能来为你制造芯片时，有没有遇到什么挑战？

Any challenges actually getting or finding capacity from their end to to make the chip for you?

所以，首先，目前先进制程节点的产能确实是个限制，对吧？

So we, you know first of all, capacity is a constraint right now for the leading edge process nodes, right?

如果你使用的是最新最先进的工艺技术来制造芯片——比如英伟达、苹果以及其他大型半导体公司使用的那些技术——那么确实存在短缺，对吧？

So if you're building a chip on the latest and greatest process technology, the stuff that NVIDIA uses, Apple uses, you know, and other larger semiconductor companies use, absolutely, there is a shortage, right?

但在Dematrix，我们构建平台的方式是，架构并不需要依赖最新最先进的工艺节点，对吧？

But at Dematrix, the way we built our platform, we built it in a way where the architecture did not really need to take advantage of the latest and greatest process node, right?

因此，我们的工艺技术通常比领先半导体公司使用的落后一到两代，对吧？

So we are typically n minus one, maybe n minus two generations in terms of process technology behind what the leading edge semiconductor companies use, right?

因为我们的架构优势足以弥补工艺技术上的滞后。

Because our architectural advantages will more than make up for the lag in process technology.

这是第一点。

That's number one.

第二，我们不使用像HBM内存这样的技术，而HBM内存在GPU中非常流行。

Number two, we don't use things like HBM memory, which is very, very popular with GPUs, right?

我们使用其他类型的内存技术。

We use other forms of memory technology.

我们不使用被称为硅中介层和CoWoS的技术，而这种技术目前极度短缺。

We don't use this thing called silicon interposer than CoVOST, which is again in extreme shortage and short supply.

我们已经构建了这个平台。

We have built the platform.

这个计算平台是用当今没有短缺的技术构建的。

The computing platform has been built with technology that does not really use any of the technology that are in short supply today.

明白了。

Got it.

所以你已经围绕它做了优化。

So you've sort of optimized around it.

我想知道，你刚刚完成了这一轮融资。

I wonder, you've just finished this funding round.

在这个时代，要找到真正懂芯片的风险投资人有多难？

How hard is it to find venture capitalists in this era that actually know chips really well?

我无法想象每一家顶尖风投公司都具备真正了解芯片制造所需能力的专业知识。

I can't imagine that every flagship venture firm has the expertise to really know what it takes to make a chip.

对吧？

Right?

只有少数几家，阿卡什。

It's a handful, Akash.

真的，我数一数手指就能数出来。

It's really I mean, I can count them on my fingers.

我已经干了七年了。

I've been doing this for seven years.

在过去七年里，没有一个星期我没有向投资者推销过。

There's not been a week in the last seven years I haven't pitched to an investor.

我可以告诉你，真正能深入尽职调查的投资者寥寥无几。

And I can tell you it's a handful of investors who really can diligence deal

所以有些公司说，我喜欢，但这不是我们的领域，我们不懂。

So so there are some firms that say, I I I like, it's it's just not our we we don't know it.

这很重要。

We it's important.

我们不懂。

We don't know it.

他们中的许多人根本不去涉足这个领域。

Them many of them don't go there.

有些投资者想去，因为现在围绕芯片的噪音太多了，尤其是英伟达发生的事情。

Some of them want to go there because of all the, you know, there's just so much noise around chips and, you know, with what's happening with NVIDIA.

他们中的许多人确实去了。

Many of them go there.

他们想参与，但他们就是无法分辨赢家和输家。

They wanna participate, but they they they just can't pick the winners from the losers.

对吧？

Right?

对他们来说，做到这一点非常非常困难。

It's very, very hard for them to do that.

没错。

Right.

我最后再问你一个问题。

And last question for you.

谈谈赢家和输家。

Talking about the winners versus the losers.

你看，你是在挑战詹森·黄。

Look, you are taking on Jensen Huang.

这一点毫无疑问。

There's no two ways about it.

我知道这是一个非常特定的应用场景。

I I I know that it's a very specific application.

你每天早上醒来时，从个人角度来说，是什么感觉？

How do you wake up when you wake up in the morning on a personal level?

我的意思是，挑战当今人工智能领域最有影响力的人，这种感觉如何？

I mean, what what does that feel like to be taking on perhaps the most powerful person in AI right now?

这不会让你害怕吗？

Does it not scare you?

这会激励你吗？

Does it inspire you?

跟我聊聊你的内心想法。

Just walk me through your personal thinking.

不会。

No.

我在这个行业已经三十多年了。

I've been in the industry for thirty plus years.

对吧？

Right?

而且，你知道，我职业生涯始于英特尔，当时英特尔是全球领先的企业。

And, you know, I started my career at Intel, you know, and Intel was at the top the world.

对吧？

Right?

当时人人都在挑战英特尔。

And everybody was taking on Intel.

然后我去了三家初创公司。

Then I went I've been at three startups.

你知道，这是我第三次创业了。

You know, this is my third time building a business.

我曾与大公司竞争。

I've competed with large companies.

我曾与小公司竞争。

I've competed with small companies.

我曾经与非常强大的在位企业竞争过。

I've competed with very strong incumbents.

对吧？

Right?

所以我不觉得这让我害怕。

So I don't think it scares me.

当然，这其中确实有一些激励因素。

It's certainly, there is an element of inspiration.

我会仔细研究大型企业是如何建立起它们的护城河和优势的。

I do look at how larger companies have gone on to get the moats and the advantages that they have.

当然，这个过程需要非常非常谨慎。

Of course, journeys very, very carefully.

而且说实话，Dematrix团队是少数曾经打造过数十亿美元半导体业务的团队之一。

And, you know, to be honest, I mean, Dematrix team is one of the few teams in the business that have built a multi billion dollar semiconductor business in the past.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是一支团队，他们过去在一家叫Inphi的公司工作，这家公司后来被Marvell收购，我们从零开始打造了一个30亿美元的业务，与一些大型老牌企业竞争。

So this is a team that when they, you know, in their past lives, we were at a company called Inphi, which was sold to Marvell, and we built a $3,000,000,000 business from scratch competing with some of the very large incumbents.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们具备所需的能力。

So we have what it takes.

我们拥有竞争的基因。

We have the DNA to compete.

我们当然不是说要完全取代Nvidia。

We are certainly not saying we are out to displace Nvidia completely.

那不是我们的目标。

That's not our goal.

我们的目标是在Nvidia并不擅长的领域与他们共存。

Our goal is to really time be, you know, coexist with them in areas where they don't necessarily do very well.

对吧？

Right?

这是一个巨大的机会，我认为这根本不是零和游戏。

And this is gonna be such a big opportunity that I think that's gonna be it's not really a zero sum game.

很好。

Great.

西德，感谢你参加这个节目。

Well, Syd, thank you for coming on the show.

恭喜你完成融资，我们很快还会再邀请你回来。

Congratulations on the funding round, and we'll have you back on the show again soon.

期待那一天，阿卡什。

Look forward to it, Akash.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thank you for having me.

好的。

Okay.

格兰德的股价预计将在年底收跌，长期的下滑是两位合计持有该公司60%股份的投资者试图将其私有化的原因之一。

Shares of Grindr are tracking to end the year in the red, and the months long slide is one reason two investors who collectively own 60% of the publicly traded company are trying to take the company private.

我的同事，财务副总监科里·温伯格，今天发表了一篇关于这家公司的精彩专题报道，我想请他来聊聊这件事。

My colleague, Corey Weinberg, our Deputy Bureau Chief of Finance, wrote a great feature story on the company that is out today, and I want to bring him on to talk all about it.

科里，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Corey, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

早上好，阿卡什，很高兴能来这里。

Good morning Akash, great to be here.

很高兴能讨论科技界真正重要的公司——Grindr。

Glad to be talking about the real companies that matter in the tech world, Grindr.

我本来想说，我们到目前为止这期节目已经聊了很多话题了。

I was gonna say, you know, we've really covered a lot of land on this episode so far.

我们之前谈了人工智能代理，还采访了前推特首席执行官，接着又谈了芯片。

We talked about talking about agents and with the former CEO of Twitter, then we're talking about chips.

现在我们又谈到了Grindr。

Now we're talking about Grindr.

我们接下来要谈自动驾驶汽车。

We're going talk autonomous vehicles.

这真是一场对科技行业的全面巡礼，我最喜欢这样形容。

It's really a full tour of the tech sector is what I like to call it.

我们来谈谈你写的那篇报道吧。

Let's talk about the story that you wrote.

我们通常会从新闻开始这些环节。

Oftentimes we start these segments with the news.

我想稍微退后一步。

I want to take a step back a bit.

给我们讲讲Grindr的历史吧，他们是怎么走到今天这一步的，现在有两个人正试图将其私有化。

Walk us through the history of Grindr, how they actually got to this point where you have these two folks that are trying to take them private.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，这可能是科技领域中最引人入胜的公司历史了，如果我可以大胆这么说的话。

It's it's a really, I think, the most fascinating corporate history in tech, if I can go out on a limb.

这是一家成立于2008年的公司，正值iPhone问世之初，是最早充分利用地理位置服务的应用之一。

This was a company that launched in 2008 at the dawn of the iPhone, really one of the first apps that really took advantage of geolocation services.

创始人从未筹集过风险投资，他只是想用这个应用来结识约炮对象。

And the founder who never raised venture capital wanted to use it to find guys to hook up with.

他是一名住在西好莱坞的同性恋者，真正想通过这款应用解决自己个人的问题。

He was a gay guy in West Hollywood and really wanted to use the app to to build the app to solve a personal problem for him.

他将这款应用发展成了全球现象，并在上个十年中期以数亿美元的价格卖给了中国一家名为昆仑万维的游戏公司。

He grew it into a global phenomenon and sold it for hundreds of millions of dollars around the middle of last decade to a Chinese gaming company called Kunlun.

几年后，美国政府下令要求剥离这项收购，这是科技领域最大、最具意义的一次强制剥离，请继续听下去。

That that sale was ordered divested several years later by the US government, the largest or or the the most significant divestiture ordered in in tech, and and stay with me here.

之后，几位不太为人所知的投资者收购了它。

It was then picked up by a couple investors that not that many people had really heard of that much.

一位曾任职于Farallon资本和高盛的绅士，名叫雷蒙德·扎格，另一位投资者名叫刘詹姆斯。

A gentleman who used to work at Farallon Capital and Goldman Sachs named Raymond Zage, and another investor named James Liu.

他们买下了这家公司，最终通过SPAC将其上市，而我们现在就在这里。

They bought it, ended up taking it public via a SPAC, and here we are today.

在我们讨论它作为上市公司的历程之前，为什么被命令剥离呢？

And before we get to its life as a public company, why was it ordered to divest?

因为它被一家中国公司拥有，而这家公司可以接触到大量美国公民的敏感个人数据。

Well, it was owned by a Chinese company who had access to a lot of sensitive personal data of US citizens.

如果你想想人们如何使用Grindr约会，它主要用于约炮，用户在应用中会保存一些敏感内容。

If you think about sort of how people use Grindr for dating, it's used for hooking up, people have, you know, sort of their have have some sensitive material in the app.

没错。

So Right.

它被视为一种国家安全威胁。

It was viewed as a national security threat.

所以它上市了。

So it goes public.

谈谈它作为上市公司以来的财务表现如何，股价表现如何？

Talk to me about how the financials have fared over its lifetime as a public company and how the stock price has done?

Grindr是一家表现低调但强劲的公司，这可能让你感到惊讶。

So Grindr is a quietly strong performer, which which might surprise you.

它的EBITDA利润率大约在30%左右。

It is it has 30 ish percent EBITDA margins.

它的收入增长率大约在30%的水平。

Its revenue growth, it's in sort of the 30% range.

它主要通过销售应用内的订阅服务或高级功能来盈利。

It mostly sells subscriptions or premium features for the app.

今年它的销售额预计将达到约4.3亿美元。

It's about we'll do about a 430,000,000 in sales this year.

所以，你知道，它并不是我们通常讨论或报道的那种大型科技公司，但表现相当强劲。

So, you know, not the biggest tech company that we're used to talking about or covering, but a fairly strong performer.

尤其是今年早些时候，它在业绩上超过了其他约会应用公司，比如拥有Tinder和Bumble的Match集团。

And particularly for a lot of earlier this year, it was lapping the other dating app companies like Match and Match Group, which owns Tinder and Bumble.

而且最近它一直在强调自己并不是一个约会应用。

And had been talking about Grindr had been talking a lot about itself recently as it's not a dating app.

把它看作是一个社交媒体应用吧。

It's a think about it as a social media app.

这是一个应用程序，用户每天在这款应用中发送的消息数量，我认为CEO曾说过，比WhatsApp还要多。

This is an app this is an app that where where members are are I think the CEO likes to say that people are sending more messages in this app every day than WhatsApp.

用户每天在这款应用上花费的时间超过六十七分钟。

People are spending over sixty seven minutes a day in this app.

这不是一个约会应用。

It's not a dating app.

这是一个社交媒体应用。

It's a social media app.

这就是注意力经济。

Attention economy right there.

就是这样。

There you go.

人们正在关注这款应用上的某些内容。

People are paying attention to something on this app.

问题出现在年中，当时有一份简短的报告。

The problem was around the middle of the year, there was a short report.

空头开始想，嘿，这个东西实际上有点被高估了。

Short sellers started think, hey, this thing is actually a little overvalued.

它的股价涨得太多了。

It's running up too much.

用户增长略有放缓。

User growth slowed down slightly.

由于各种原因，股价一路下跌，但目前已稳定在约25亿美元的估值左右。

And the stock for various reasons has sort of been more on its way down, but it's sort of settled around about a two and a half billion dollar valuation.

那么，公司现在如何看待这笔收购要约呢？

So how is the company now thinking about this buyout offer?

你认为他们对此持开放态度吗？

Are they receptive to it, do you think?

他们更关注客户还是股东？

Are they thinking more about the customers and the shareholders?

帮我梳理一下，你认为董事会现在正在考虑的框架是什么。

Walk me through a little bit of the framework that you think they're going through in the boardroom right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，由两位控股股东提出的收购要约，正由董事会的一个独立特别委员会进行评估。

I mean, I think the offer brought by the two controlling shareholders, it's being assessed by an independent special committee of the board.

不是由提出要约的人，也不是由管理层来评估。

Not by the people making the offer, not by management.

这将被看作一个问题：这对其他股东来说是否是最好的选择？

It is sort of going to be deemed a question of, is this best for the rest of the shareholders?

这个价格是否公平？

Is its price fair?

这个价格比Grindr当前的交易价格高出约25%。

It's about a 25% premium to where Grindr currently trading.

但它低于其峰值时的交易价格。

It's below where it was trading at its peak.

所以，你知道，这个特别委员会必须评估，这是否是为股东争取到的最佳交易？

So, you know, those are that special committee is going to have to assess, you know, is this is this gonna be the best deal for shareholders?

我们怎么看待这个报价与Grindr管理层对未来前景的预测相比呢？

How do we think, you know, sort of this compares to Grindr management's projections of the future, things like that.

所以我们还不知道他们最终会如何决定。

So we don't know where how they're going to decide yet on that.

不过，我之前报道过，CEO乔治·埃里克森在要约公开后的几天里曾向公司传达过这样的观点。

The tension though is this is what I reported the CEO, George Erickson, had sort of told the company in the days following the that the bid became public.

他们认为作为一家上市公司是有好处的。

They think there's there's benefits to being a public company.

许多员工和高管的薪酬都与上市公司的股票挂钩。

A lot of employees and and executives are paid in public company stock.

而Grindr由于其历史背景——作为一款涉及敏感国家安全问题的重要应用，认为保持上市并按季度披露信息、提供透明度具有重要价值。

And Grindr would because of its history as being this sensitive sort of national security, you know, sort of important app, sees the value in being public and having to report quarterly, know, sort of provide that kind of transparency.

我认为人们会质疑，这类交易会因杠杆收购给公司资产负债表带来巨额债务。

And I think there's questions on, okay, this kind of a deal would add a ton of debt to this company's balance sheet of the leveraged buyout.

那么这将会是什么样子呢？

So what is that going to look like?

所以，我认为这些是这笔交易中的一些压力点，我们得看看董事会在未来几周会如何裁定。

So those are some of the pressure points, I think, in this deal, and we'll have to see how the board kind of rules in the coming weeks.

我想在你走之前快速问一下，你深入研究过许多类似公司，仔细考察了它们的历史、成为上市公司的历程，以及作为上市公司必须应对的各种问题。

I wonder, just quickly before I let you go, you've studied a number of companies like this in great detail, studying their history, their journey to becoming a public company, the things they have to deal with as a public company.

当你总体来看Grindr的故事时，我不禁想，对于管理层来说，有没有什么可借鉴的教训？或者对科技行业的发展、公司上市所面临的挑战，有什么更广泛的反思？

When you look at Grindr's story, broadly speaking, I wonder if there are any lessons for management or any broader reflections on just the way tech has evolved or how companies have to fare with going public?

你对其他管理者能从他们的经历中学到什么，有什么看法吗？

Do you have any sort of reflections on what other managers could learn from their story?

没有。

No.

有。

Yeah.

这是个非常好的问题。

It's a really good question.

我的意思是，Grindr在许多方面都是一个典型案例。

I mean, Grindr is a case study in a few different things.

一是它展示了网络效应的强大之处，一旦你拥有一群沉迷于该应用及其功能的用户，就很难失去他们。

One is it illustrates how strong a network effect really is and how once you have a network of users who are hooked on the app and its features, it's really hard to lose it.

我的意思是，这家公司经历了无数次企业动荡，股权多次易手。

I mean, like this company has been through all of this corporate turmoil in terms of the company changing hands time and time again.

我也曾报道过这家公司面临的各种问题，比如处理应用中垃圾信息等麻烦。

It was at various I also reported this story on various issues, the problem the company has had with spam dealing with kind of that side of the app.

在我看来，Grindr 故事中最令人惊叹的一点是，尽管有时几乎是在与自身作对，它依然保持了主导地位。

To me, like, one amazing thing of the Grindr story is how they have remained dominant despite almost like in spite of itself sometimes.

我认为，目前我能够理解关于是否将其私有化的争论双方观点，我能理解控股股东希望将其私有化的立场。

I think right now, I can sort of see both sides of of the of the debate on I can see the controlling shareholders side perspective, wanting to take it private.

作为一家市值相对较小的上市公司，日子很难过。

It's tough being a relatively small cap, a public company.

很难吸引投资者的关注。

It's hard to get the attention of investors.

他们之前曾退市后又重新上市，这让事情变得更加困难。

They took a public bias back, makes it even harder to do that.

对。

Right.

所以，也许我能理解这种好处。

So maybe I can see that benefit.

但与此同时，我想说的是，确实有很多Grindr用户在隐私方面感到安心，因为这家公司必须定期披露信息。

At the same time, it's like, look, I mean, I do think there are a lot of Grindr users out there who probably get some comfort on a privacy perspective that this company does have to report Right.

一个季度接一个季度。

Quarter after quarter.

所以，是的，很有趣的是看事情会如何发展。

So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see how how it unfolds.

很好。

Great.

好了，Corey，感谢你前来做客。

Well, Corey, thanks for coming on.

这是一个很棒的故事，我们会确保在节目笔记中附上链接。

It was a great story, and we will make sure to link it in our show notes.

这本周末是我们的头条故事。

It is our feature story this weekend.

这位是科里·温伯格，我们《The Information》的财经副总监。

That is Corey Weinberg, our deputy bureau chief of finance here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

今天，我们将在TITV推出一个全新栏目。

Today, we are launching a brand new segment on TITV.

这个栏目叫做《编辑精选》。

It is called The Editor's Cut.

每周，来自《The Information》的一组资深编辑将轮流与我一起带您走进我们的编辑部，向您展示我们如何讨论最重要的科技新闻，如何辩论，什么才是真正重要的，以及我们如何确定下一步该问哪些关键问题。

Each week, a rotating group of senior editors from The Information will join me to take you inside our newsroom to give you a look at how we talk about the biggest tech stories, how we debate, what really matters, how we figure out the smartest questions to ask next.

这个话题在本周早些时候的编辑会议上引发了热烈讨论。

This first topic sparked a lively discussion in our editorial meeting earlier this week.

Waymo刚刚在旧金山、洛杉矶和凤凰城的高速公路上开始提供自动驾驶出租车服务。

Waymo just began offering robotaxi rides on freeways in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix.

现在加入我们讨论这一话题的是我们的特稿编辑尼克·温菲尔德和财经编辑肯·布朗。

Joining me now to discuss that is and discuss how we're thinking about it are our features editor, Nick Wingfield, and our finance editor, Ken Brown.

肯和尼克，欢迎来到《编辑精选》，欢迎来到TI TV。

Ken and Nick, welcome to the Editor's Cut, and welcome to TI TV.

很高兴

It's great to

你们能来。

have you here.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们正在创造历史。

We're making history.

我们正在创造历史。

We are making history.

这是《编辑精选》的首期节目。

The inaugural Editor's Cut.

我对此感到兴奋。

I'm excited for this one.

听好了，尼克，我先从你开始。

Look, Nick, I'll start with you.

这周我们看到了关于Waymo的消息。

We saw the news this week about Waymo.

你多年来，甚至可能几十年来，一直关注这个领域。

You've been following this sector for years, decades now, maybe even.

这个消息与你对自动驾驶行业整体的看法相符吗？

How did this news square with the way that you're thinking about the autonomous vehicle sector at large?

你有什么样的思考？

What sort of reflections have you had?

关于Waymo的故事，我的看法是，这是一家已经存在了十五年的公司，基本上是在谷歌、现在是Alphabet内部成长起来的。

The way I think about the Waymo story, I mean, this is a company that's been around for fifteen years, basically grew up inside of Google, now Alphabet.

从编辑的角度来看，我认为可以分为三个层面。

I think of this from a sort of editor perspective in three buckets.

有商业故事，有技术故事，还有文化故事。

There's the business story, there's the technology story, and then there's a cultural story.

它们都十分引人入胜。

All of them are fascinating.

我们本周早些时候的讨论源于这样一个事实：Waymo终于在其最初的市场之一——湾区，开始扩展高速公路服务。

And our discussion earlier this week was prompted by the fact that Waymo, in one of its original markets in the Bay Area, is expanding to freeway service finally after all these years.

他们一直在旧金山及其他地区的城市街道上进行测试，而现在这为湾区乃至洛杉矶打开了大量新的可能性。

They've been working on city streets in San Francisco and elsewhere, And now this just opens up a ton of new possibilities in the Bay Area, also Los Angeles.

任何开过车的人都知道，洛杉矶是一座以高速公路为主的城市。

Anybody who's driven in LA understands that it's a city of freeways.

这带来了商业影响、安全影响，还有一些非常有趣的文化影响，我们可以就此展开讨论。

This has business implications, it has safety implications, and it has some very interesting cultural implications that we can talk about.

凤凰城也是他们正在扩展的另一个地区。

And Phoenix also is the other area where they're expanding.

明年，他们计划扩展到许多新的市场。

And then next year, they're planning on expanding to a lot of new markets.

我们将看到Waymo的故事在公众意识中的能见度大幅跃升。

We're going see the Waymo story really jump in terms of its visibility in the public consciousness.

尼基能否为我们概述一下，这将如何影响世界？

Can Nick outline for us a couple of different ways in which this is going to impact the world?

商业角度、技术角度、文化角度。

The business angle, technology angle, the cultural angle.

还有安全角度。

There's the safety angle.

在这些角度中，你认为哪个是人们讨论得不够、而你一直深思的？

Which of those angles do you think people aren't talking about enough that you've really been thinking about?

我认为文化角度非常精彩。

I think the cultural angle is amazing.

旧金山有一个数据，它们遍布各处。

There's a stat in San Francisco, they're all over the place.

你在城里到处都能看到Waymo的车。

You see Waymo's everywhere in the city.

而且它们的使用率很高，意味着人们只坐一两次就不再乘坐了，这看起来有点奇怪，但他们发现，每个来旧金山的游客都会乘坐一次Waymo。

And the churn on them is very high, meaning people take one or two rides and don't take another ride, which looks kind of odd, except what they realized is every tourist who comes to San Francisco takes a Waymo.

就像你到旧金山时会坐一次的缆车一样？你坐过吗？

It's like a ride that you take when you're in San Francisco, like a cable Have taken one?

我确实这么做了。

I did exactly that.

我还拍了视频，分享给了我的家人。

And I videoed it and I shared it with my family.

我完全像个游客，但我住在纽约，你知道，我们那里还没有这种车，但我认为人们真的很喜欢这些东西。

I was a total tourist, but it is so I live in New York and so, you know, we don't have them yet, but they I think people love these things.

我认为人们经常谈论它们。

I think it is people talk about them.

人们开车经过时会注意看它们，因为在旧金山，你总能看见到处都是游客。

People look at them when they drive by because you can see all the tourists in San Francisco all the time.

我认为这是一种令人兴奋的技术，人们觉得它非常酷。

I think it's an exciting technology that people think is really cool.

我不认为，在我读过的所有关于未来几年增长的预测中，市场渗透率在未来几年仍将保持个位数，我不确定这是否正确。

That I don't think that in all the projections I was reading projections of the growth of sort of the next few years and how it's gonna be still single digits penetration in the markets for the next And few I don't know if that's right.

你不确定这是否正确？你觉得实际情况可能会有什么不同？

You don't know if that's right in terms of how do you think it might go differently?

一旦它进入一座城市，就会被广泛接受。

As soon as it lands in a city, it'll be embraced.

真正的限制将是他们能在路上部署的车辆数量。

And the real constraint is going to be the number of cars they can put on the road.

尼克，这与十年前或十二年前人们的看法相比如何？

Nick, how does this compare with how people were thinking about it ten, twelve years ago?

这比当时的预测更快还是更慢？

Was this faster or slower than the estimates may have been back then?

我认为进展更慢了。

I think it's been slower.

我七年前加入时，我们在自动驾驶领域，包括像Waymo这样的打车服务方面，还处于非常早期的阶段。

I joined the information I think seven years ago, and we were very early on in our coverage of the autonomous vehicle sector, including ride hailing services like Waymo.

当时看起来并没有多少初创公司，对吧？

It really did not seem at that point like There were a lot of startups, right?

虽然有大量的资本涌入这个领域，但人们仍然对Waymo等公司能否达到推出这些服务所需的安全水平感到极大的怀疑。

And there was a lot of capital going into the sector, but there was still an incredible amount of skepticism about whether the Waymo's of the world could achieve the levels of safety required to launch these different services.

因此，它就在我们眼皮底下悄然变成了旧金山等地再普通不过的事情。

And so it's really under our very noses has emerged as this very normal thing to do in places like San Francisco.

我认为，当它们现在在纽约进行测试时——由人类驾驶员操作，仅做地图测绘，还不载客——但一旦在纽约这样的城市落地，它将变得更加普遍，成为城市生活中无法回避的一部分。

And my view is that when they're testing in New York with human drivers right now, just mapping, not taking passengers, but when it lands in places like New York, that it will become even more normal and just an inescapable part of city life.

所以，肯和尼克，你们都坐过一次了吧？

So, Ken, and Nick, you've taken one, right?

你们在西海岸。

You're on the West Coast.

是的，你们肯定坐过。

Yeah, you must have.

看来我是唯一一个还没坐过的人了，好吧？

So I seem to be the only one who hasn't taken one yet, okay?

我感觉有点被冷落了。

And I'm feeling a bit left out.

但作为还没坐过的人，我可以这么说，你告诉我它更安全。

But I will say as somebody who hasn't taken one, I mean, gosh, you could tell me it's safer.

我不确定我是否相信。

I don't know if I believe it.

肯，难道不会有人觉得需要说服别人吗？我知道你在谈文化角度，嗯。

Ken, is there not gonna be I mean, I know you're talking about the cultural angle here, but Mhmm.

你不觉得需要说服人们说，嘿，

You don't think there's any convincing to do with people saying like, hey.

这就是未来吗？

This is the future?

嗯，当然了。

Well, yeah, of course.

我的意思是，我知道我接触过一些人说，我永远不会做这种事，但其实他们是安全的。

I mean, I know I've talked to people that say, I would never do that, but they're safe.

我是说，更好。

I mean, better.

至少到目前为止我们看到的是，总体上它们比人类驾驶得更好。

At least what we've seen so far is by and large, they're better drivers than people.

说到最无聊的领域，汽车保险界有一整个讨论，说这会降低保险成本，因为它们发生的事故少得多。

I mean, to take us into the most boring realm, there's a whole discussion in the world of car insurance about how it's gonna lower insurance costs because they get in many fewer accidents.

我的意思是，当你坐在其中一辆车的前座，看到摄像头，看到车辆所看到的一切，你会意识到这辆车确实能看到所有东西。

I mean, and when you sit in the front seat of one of them and you see the cameras and you see what the car is seeing, you realize that the car really does see everything.

他们看到骑自行车的人，看到交通信号灯，看到各种情况。

And they see the cyclist, they see traffic light, they see whatever.

然后你意识到作为司机可能会忽略多少东西。

And you realize how much you may not see as a driver.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我认为人们会被说服的。

I think people will be convinced.

所以，尼克，让我们把话题转向你作为记者和新闻编辑的视角。

So Nick, let's take take this into the realm of of you know, put our our reporting editors and and journalism hats on here.

我在想，当你思考这项技术时，对你来说最重要的问题是什么？也许最好的方式是考虑所有相关的参与者。

I I wonder what the big questions are for you as you think about this technology, and and maybe the best way to think about that is all the different players that are involved.

我们显然有特斯拉，它在这个领域有着宏大的抱负。

We obviously have Tesla that has grand ambitions in this realm.

Waymo则稍微领先一些。

Waymo is a little bit further ahead.

当你思考记者和我们新闻团队需要报道的问题时，你认为还有哪些关键问题尚未解答？

As you think about the reporting questions for journalists and for our newsroom, what do you think are the big questions that still have to be answered?

嗯，我这里有些新闻要公布。

Well, have some news to drop here.

你想让我告诉你吗？

You want me to tell you?

好吧，我们来谈这个。

Okay, let's go there.

好的。

All right.

所以其中一个关键问题是，本周Waymo的公告显示，其服务将延伸至圣何塞机场，这对半岛及湾区南部的乘客至关重要。

So one of the big questions is, in the announcement from Waymo this week, it's going to San Jose Airport, which is crucial for people down the peninsula in the Bay Area.

但并未宣布服务将延伸至旧金山机场，或在旧金山机场启动。

It was not announced that it was going to go to San Francisco Airport or that it was launching there.

他们已经提到，正在旧金山机场进行测试。

They've already talked about the fact that they're testing it in San Francisco Airport.

于是我联系了旧金山机场，他们表示在未来几天内，机场计划批准Waymo测试的第二阶段，即从Waymo车辆内配备人类驾驶员，过渡到配备自动驾驶系统，但暂不面向公众乘客，而是面向Waymo员工和SFO员工。

So I reached out to San Francisco Airport and they said in the next few days, the airport is planning to approve phase two of Waymo testing, which goes from having a human driver in the Waymos into having an autonomous driver, a self driving vehicle, not with the public as passengers, but with I think Waymo employees and SFO employees.

最终，第三阶段将是全面的商业运营。

Then eventually phase three is full blown commercial service.

所以下周，我们似乎将开始看到Waymo车辆搭载某种乘客——虽然还不是公众乘客。

So by next week, it sounds like we're going to start to see Waymos that are actually taking passengers of a sort, just not public passengers.

因此，将人们送往机场将至关重要。

So getting people to the airport is going to be crucial.

这在很多方面都很重要。

It's important for a variety of reasons.

从商业角度来看，机场行程的收入要高得多。

From a business perspective, the gross dollars of an airport trip are much higher.

我不太确定利润率，因为机场涉及很多费用，但任何乘坐过Uber去纽约肯尼迪机场之类地方的人都知道，这些行程经常超过100美元。

I'm not so sure about the profit margins because there are a lot of fees associated with airports But to come in and out of certainly, to anyone who's taken an Uber to JFK or something like that in New York, these are 100 plus dollar rides very often.

所以看到它进入像这样的地方将非常重要。

So that's going to be really important to see it go into places like that.

关于我们之前讨论的文化话题，我非常感兴趣的是，人们会如何在日常生活中开始使用这项服务。

And then I'll just say on cultural discussion that we were having before, I am really fascinated to see how people just start to use this in their daily lives.

本周有一条推文广为传播，有人提出了‘Waymo酒店’的概念，即你可以跳进一辆Waymo，在后座小睡一觉，让它带你穿越半岛。

There was a tweet that kind of went viral this week where someone was raising the possibility of effectively Waymo hotels, which is the concept of you can hop into a Waymo and have it drive you down the peninsula and take a nap in the back seat of it.

哦，没错。

Oh, there you go.

或者

Or

完成你的工作，或者做点别的，独自一人在车里。

get your work done or whatever and be in solitude in this car.

是否会发生，我们还得看看。

Whether or not that happens, we'll have to see.

但我认为这里的可能性还挺有意思的，值得想象。

But I think the possibilities here are kind of fun to imagine.

肯，谈谈特斯拉这一部分吧，因为你写的《Electric》通讯稿里提到，特斯拉在这里有着宏大的愿景。

Ken, talk about the Tesla component here because you electric, which is Steve Levine's newsletter, and Tesla has had grand ambitions here.

关于竞争格局，你有哪些问题在思考？

What sort of questions are you thinking about here with respect to the competitive dynamics?

嗯，我的意思是，他们落后太多了。

Well, I I mean, I think they they're way behind.

我的意思是，推广速度仍然很慢。

I mean, the rollout is still slow.

他们甚至还没有在奥斯汀开展商业服务，而那里他们早就说过要做的。

They're still not taking doing commercial service in Austin where they've talked about it.

他们仍然受到限制。

They're still limited.

他们的活动范围受限于可以行驶的地理区域。

They're limited by the geography where they can go, where they're gonna drive.

我的意思是，特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克面临的压力非常大。

I mean, I think, and frankly, the pressure on Tesla and on Elon Musk is very high.

所以，我认为他们必须把事情理顺。

So, I I think they have to get it together.

我的意思是，技术是不同的。

I mean, technology is different.

他们没有使用激光雷达，而马斯克说他是对的，但

They're not using LIDAR and that is based, you know, Musk says he's right, but

这肯定是个坏主意。

it's certainly a bad.

是的。

Yeah.

其他人都在以不同的方式做。

Everyone else is doing it differently.

所以，我的意思是，我认为他们承受着巨大压力，而且对他们来说，安全也是一个问题。

So, So, I mean, I think they're just under a lot of pressure and, you know, the question for them is safety too.

如果他们出现安全问题，真的会严重拖累他们，而他们确实已经出过问题了。

If they if if they have problems, safety problems, it's really gonna set them and they've had them.

这真的会让他们倒退。

It's really gonna set them back.

Waymo自开始载客以来，其安全记录一直相当不错。

And Waymo's, you know, track record since it's been, you know, taking passengers has been pretty good.

所以，我的意思是，非常好。

So I mean, very good.

所以我认为这个差距非常严重。

So I think that that gap is really serious.

对。

Right.

太好了。

Great.

首先，感谢你们两位的到来。

Well, I want to thank you both for coming on.

能邀请到研究这一领域，并将其置于更广泛技术背景下的嘉宾来到节目，总是非常棒的。

It's it's always great to get folks on the show who have been studying this this space in the context of the broader technology story at large.

因此，感谢你们两位为我们的首期《编辑精选》拉开序幕。

And so thank you to you both for inaugurating us for the first Editor's Cut.

我们很快还会再邀请你们回来。

We'll have you back again on soon.

这位是我们的专题编辑尼克·温菲尔德，以及我们的财经编辑肯·布朗，他们都来自《信息》杂志。

That is Nick Wingfield, our Features Editor, and Ken Brown, our Finance Editor here at The Information.

好了，今天节目就到这里。

Well, that does it for today's show.

提醒一下，我们每周一至周五上午十点在这档节目中与大家见面。

A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at ten a.

M.

M.

太平洋时间，下午一点。

Pacific, one p.

M.

M.

东部时间。

Eastern.

我要感谢亚马逊云服务，作为本节目的冠名赞助商。

I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production.

感谢您收看。

And I want to thank you for tuning in.

我们非常感谢您的观看。

We really do appreciate your viewership.

我已经迫不及待期待下周一的节目了。

I'm already excited for our next show on Monday.

祝你周末愉快。

Have a great weekend.

再见，暂时告别。

Bye bye for now.