From the New York Stock Exchange: Financing the AI Revolution

欢迎各位来到《The Information》的TITV节目。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.

我是阿卡什·帕什里卡。

My name is Akash Pasricha.

今天是4月27日，星期一，我们正在纽约证券交易所现场直播。

It is Monday, April 27, and we are broadcasting here from the New York Stock Exchange.

今天，《The Information》在这里举办我们的年度金融峰会。

The Information is hosting our flagship finance conference here today.

我们今天要聊的是人工智能革命的资金支持问题。

We're gonna be talking about financing the AI revolution.

今天到场的嘉宾阵容强大，其中几位一会儿会和我一起上节目，比如银湖资本的联合创始人格伦·哈钦斯。

We've got some big names coming through for the event, some of whom will be joining me on the show this morning, including Glenn Hutchins, the founder cofounder of Silver Lake, I should say.

我们还请到了EQT科技私募股权的联席主管。

We've also got EQT's cohead of technology private equity.

我们一会儿要深入聊聊‘SaaS末日’这个话题。

We're gonna talk SaaSpocalypse.

今天我们来聊聊全球人工智能竞赛。

We're gonna talk about the global AI race.

我们还要谈IPO、退出机制，还有循环融资。

We're gonna talk IPOs and exits, circular financing.

不过我想先请《The Information》的资深财经编辑肯·布朗和财经部门副主编科里·温伯格上来，让他们给我们讲讲今天在大会上想聊些什么。

But I wanna start by bringing on the information senior finance editor Ken Brown and deputy bureau chief of finance Cory Weinberg to walk us through what they're hoping to talk about on stage at the conference today.

欢迎两位的到来。

Welcome to the both of you.

很高兴你们能来。

So great to have you here.

科里，我先从你开始。

Cory, I'm gonna start with you.

你最想从今天的活动中弄清楚哪些关键问题？

Tell me, what are the big questions you're hoping to get answered today from the event?

我想听听各位嘉宾的看法，这些人工智能数据中心的建设接下来会往哪个方向发展？

I wanna better understand from our esteemed speakers, where is this AI data center build out going from here?

我觉得去年这个时候办这个活动，大家关心的是这个泡沫会不会下个月就破了。

I think last last year, this time where we had when we had this event, the question was more about is this bubble gonna pop, you know, next month?

就是，这种需求到底会不会真的起来？

You know, sort of is this demand really gonna come?

现在大家更想知道的是，谁会是赢家，谁会是输家。

I believe the question now is more who are the winners and losers going to be?

我觉得这现在确实是真正的基础设施建设，行业也在成熟，但未来到底会走向哪里，还不太清楚。

I think this is a true infrastructure build out now, and the space is maturing, but, it's not clear exactly where it goes from here.

肯，你怎么看？

Ken, what do you think?

毫无疑问，大量资金正在涌入这场建设浪潮。

Well, there's no doubt that the money is pouring into this build out.

就说上星期五吧，谷歌宣布给OpenAI投了四百亿美元。

I mean, just Friday, you know, Google says 40,000,000,000 for OpenAI.

还有另一笔交易，密歇根州的一个数据中心拿了整整一千六百亿美元。

There was another deal for 16,000,000,000 for a data center in Michigan.

资金正在源源不断地涌入。

The money is just pouring in.

Core Weave拿到了大笔投资，方方面面都是如此。

Core Weave is getting a ton of money, all this stuff.

所以现在的问题是，这到底是大规模繁荣的开端，还是会遇到更多波折？

So the question is, like, is this the beginning of of this huge boom, or are there gonna be more bumps?

就像科里说的，执行力真的特别关键。

And, yeah, like Cory said, execution is huge.

如果谁交不出成果，后果会很严重。

If people don't deliver, it's gonna be harsh penalty on them.

没错。

Right.

今天早上有个重大新闻，我想听听你们俩的看法。

The the the big news story this morning that I wanna get both your reactions to.

微软和OpenAI又一次重新谈判了他们的协议。

So Microsoft Microsoft and and OpenAI OpenAI have renegotiated their, agreement once again.

他们已经取消了AGI条款。

They've done away with the AGI clause.

我敢说，接下来还会有更多调整。

I'm sure we'll see more iterations to come.

你知道，这个合作从OpenAI成立之初就开始了。

I mean, you know, this was a, this was a partnership that started very early in the in the lifespan of OpenAI.

不过，科里，你能不能给我讲讲？

But, Cory, I mean, just walk me through.

我的想法是，微软现在掌握着主动权——如果他们不再局限于只销售OpenAI的模型，而是能拓展自己的产品线，那OpenAI的路恐怕会越来越难走。

You know, the way I'm thinking about it is Microsoft has a lot of the power here in terms of if if they no longer need to only sell OpenAI models and they can sort of expand their purview of products, it seems like this is going to be an uphill road for OpenAI.

我也说不准。

I don't know.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

其实OpenAI早就料到会有这一天了。

I mean, OpenAI has seen this coming though a mile away.

他们和微软的关系，谈不上是慢动作车祸，但这几年确实越来越僵了。

Their relationship with Microsoft has been a bit of a, not a slow motion train wreck, but it's definitely been souring over the last few years.

而且OpenAI一直在努力跟亚马逊这样的公司建立更深的合作。

And OpenAI has been running to grab, you know, sort of deeper relationships with companies like Amazon.

所以他们已经更深地融入了科技巨头的云服务生态圈。

And so they've really they have entrenched themselves, like, more broadly into the sort of tech giant hyperscaler universe.

不过你这个问题问得挺到位的。

I think your question is a good one, though.

我觉得他们应对得还算不错，但还得走着瞧。

I see them having, like, maneuvered this fairly well, but we'll see.

Ken，你对这事有什么看法？

Ken, what what's your what's your reaction to this?

那个协议，简直像是石器时代签的。

I mean, that that agreement was, like, made in the stone age.

对吧？

Right?

在AI领域，这都已经是很久以前的事了。

It's just, like, so long ago in the in AI time.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这事迟早得结束。

And so, yeah, it had to end.

必须得彻底改变。

It had to change dramatically.

我觉得OpenAI其实做得挺不错的。

I mean, I think OpenAI has actually been pretty good.

他们到处拉投资，找了不少金主，迟早会上市的。

They've, like, gone out and gotten a lot of investment from a lot of different folks, and they're gonna go public, you know, at some point.

对吧？

Right?

如果当初双方能处理得更好一点，协议也更周全些，可能对彼此都更好。但现在看来，他们各自走各自的路了。

So, you know, I think it probably it it it it's would would have been better for both of them if they managed it a little better or if the agreement was a little smarter, but I think they're both now gonna go their own ways.

微软业务基础雄厚，现在更容易推广其他模型了。

And Microsoft has plenty of business, and now they can sell these other models more easily.

科里，最后一个问题。

Cory, last question for you.

我们可是在纽约证券交易所这儿呢。

I mean, we are here at the New York Stock Exchange.

你一直追踪上市市场将近十年了，就是我刚才提到的那家信息公司。

I mean, the IPO market you've covered for nearly a decade here at at the information I just mentioned.

没错。

Exactly.

我见过所有的上市案例。

I've seen them all.

你确实都见过，但最大的那些还在后头呢。

You've seen them all, but the biggest ones are still yet to come.

今天在这场活动上，你最想弄清楚关于这些上市公司的哪些关键问题？

What are the big questions around these IPOs that you're hoping to get answers to today at the event?

是的

Yeah.

目前投入人工智能的两大资金池规模巨大，一是数据中心基础设施的债务，二是这些可能的巨型IPO——如果SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI全部上市，今年融资总额可能高达两千亿美元。

Well, that's the two piles of money going into AI right now that are huge is this data center infrastructure debt, and it's gonna be these massive IPOs, which could raise, I don't know, upwards of $200,000,000,000 this year if if SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all go public.

你看。

Look.

第一个问题是，SpaceX的上市会顺利吗？

The first question is, is the SpaceX deal going to go well?

这个项目我们已经知道，大约一个月后就会正式启动路演。

That's the deal we know is gonna be on the road in about a month starting to sell.

我觉得投资者得花点时间消化这家像拼凑出来的公司。

And, look, I think investors are having to get their head wrapped around this sort of Frankenstein of a company.

但大家关注的焦点会是人工智能。

And but the story is going to be AI.

这跟我们六个月前刚听说SpaceX要上市时的预期完全不一样。

And that's not something we expected when we started hearing about SpaceX IPO about six months ago.

我们还以为是个火箭公司上市呢？

We thought rocket company IPO?

实际上，埃隆·马斯克也这么说。

Actually, Elon Musk is saying, yeah.

你可以把它看成一家火箭公司，但我真正卖给你的是AI的未来，这其中有很多让人怀疑的地方。

You can look at it as a rocket company, but I'm gonna be selling you the AI dream, and there's a lot of reasons to be skeptical.

没错。

Right.

确实有很多值得留意的地方。

Well, there's a lot to watch.

我挺期待今天的活动的。

I'm excited for the event today.

这位是我们的财经副总监科里·温伯格，还有我们的资深财经编辑肯·布朗，他们都在TITV。

That is Cory Weinberg, our deputy bureau chief of finance, and Ken Brown, our senior finance editor here on TITV.

现在我旁边这位是格伦·哈钦斯，北岛资本和北岛风投的董事长，也是银湖资本的联合创始人。

I'm joined now by Glenn Hutchins, the chairman of North Island and North Island Ventures, also the cofounder of Silver Lake.

格伦，欢迎来到TITV。

Glenn, welcome to TITV.

很高兴您能来。

It's great to have you here.

非常荣幸。

My pleasure.

能来这儿真好。

Nice to be here.

我想听听您对今早几条重大新闻的反应。

I wanna get your reaction to a couple of the big headlines making news this morning.

第一条是微软和OpenAI又一次重新谈判了他们的协议。

So the first headline is Microsoft and Open have renegotiated their deal yet again.

看起来他们把AGI条款删掉了。

Looks like they've taken out the AGI clause.

微软现在可以自由选择不同的AI模型，卖给自己的客户。

Microsoft can, go with various AI models to resell to its customers.

OpenAI 可以和多家云服务商合作。

OpenAI can do with many different cloud providers.

我的意思是，从大方向看，你怎么看这些协议变得这么快？

I mean, just broadly speaking, how do you think about these agreements changing so quickly?

你知道，那个 AGI 条款被删掉了。

You know, the AGI clause coming out of it.

你对此有什么看法？

What's your reaction?

OpenAI 确实是先行者。

Well, and OpenAI were real pioneers.

回顾过去，他们很有远见，既开发了模型，又解决了资金问题。

And they were building, if you look back on it, they had the foresight to both build the models and then figure out how to finance their production.

但随着行业变化，作为先驱者，就必须跟着调整。

But as the industry changed, when you're a forerunner in something, you have to adapt to changes.

现在市场上出现了很多其他竞争性模型，不只是大语言模型，还有各种应用，微软当然想拿到这些资源。

We now have many other competitive models, not just LLMs, but other kinds of applications that Microsoft obviously wants access to.

OpenAI 已经成长起来，真正成了一家公司。

OpenAI has grown up and become a real company.

没错。

Right.

有了自己的资产负债表、融资渠道，也有了上市的前景。

Has its own balance sheet, its own set of financing, and its own prospects of going public.

所以，考虑到当前人工智能的发展阶段，他们确实该找个更稳定的商业合作模式了。

So it's just time for them to find a more stable commercial relationship in light of the the current phase of development of AI.

没错。

Right.

我觉得这再自然不过了。

Seems seems natural to me.

就是长大了而已。

Just growing up, really.

我还有个特别想问你的新闻，你刚从新加坡回来，我们今天早上，或者该说上周末，收到了消息。

The other headline that I I was really excited to ask you about is you just came back from Singapore, and we got the news this morning that or or over the weekend, I should say.

中国阻止了Meta对Manus的收购。

China is blocking the Meta Manus acquisition.

这是一笔20亿美元的交易，标的公司是那个非常火爆的AI代理公司，确实让很多人着迷。

This was the $2,000,000,000 deal for the sensational AI agent company that that, you know, really captivated people.

你之前有料到会发生这事吗？

Did you expect this coming at all?

我根本没往这方面想。

I wasn't really thinking about it.

我也不知道会怎样。

I didn't know what to expect.

回头看的话，我倒不觉得意外。

It doesn't surprise me when I look at it.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

你看，当你真正去那边的时候，我不确定这是否真的涉及反垄断或其他方面的考量。

Well, when you get over to I mean, I don't know if there's any real antitrust or other kind of implication for it.

但你只要在亚洲待一段时间，就会明白现在有两个完全不同的科技生态系统。

But when you spend time in Asia, you understand that there are, now two different, technology ecosystems.

一个是以美国为中心，另一个是以中国为中心。

One organized around The United States and one organized around China.

这两者之间存在着不小的摩擦。

And there's a fair amount of friction between them.

顺便说一句，大家都很期待特朗普五月中旬的访问会带来什么变化。

They're all, by the way, eagerly anticipating what might come out of Trump's visit in late in in mid May.

这对那个地区来说可是件大事。

That's a big deal for that region.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Right.

所以现在任何决策都离不开美中两国超级大国竞争的大背景，而这场竞争在科技领域表现得尤为明显。

And so nothing is done now in the absence of thinking about the superpower competition between United States and China, that's expressed in this case at the technology level.

所以我的看法是，这其实是在为这种讨论铺路。

So my reaction is that, this was setting this was setting the stage for that kind of discussion.

就像是稀土矿物的数字版装备一样。

Sort of the could be the digital equipment of rare earth minerals.

你得先给我们想要的东西，我们才给你。

You can't have them until you give us something we want type of thing.

这只是其中一方面。

That's one piece of it.

另一点更有趣的是，现在那边正在争论，中国因为无法获得最先进的显卡，到底是吃亏了还是反而受益了。

And the other but the other more interesting piece is right now, there's an interesting debate in that part of the world right now about whether the Chinese are better or worse off as a consequence of not having access to the most advanced GPUs.

对。

Right.

主流观点认为，这拖慢了他们的进展，让美国和西方盟友能继续保持技术上的领先优势。

The, the, conventional wisdom is that it slows down their development, allows The United States and its western allies to maintain a strategic competitive technological leap.

但中国这边新兴的看法是，这反而教会了他们如何用更少的资源做更多的事。

The emerging view in China is that it's teaching them how to do more with less.

他们变得更有效率了。

They're becoming more efficient.

他们被迫发展自己的内部产业，正在加速华为自研GPU芯片，也在加快研发能与ASML竞争的产品。

They're being compelled to develop their own, internal industries that, they're accelerating the the GPU chip produced by Huawei and they're accelerating the development of a competitor to ASML.

所以，所以。

So so

因此，从长远来看，这反而可能对中国的有利，因为它推动了中国的竞争力和效率提升。

And as a result of which, this might in the long run be better for China because it spurs them to competitiveness and efficiency.

这是个有趣的问题。

Interesting question.

你认为西方是否低估了中国当前正在崛起的AI技术和基础设施？

Do you do you think the West might be underestimating all of the AI and the infrastructure coming out of China right now?

不会。

No.

不会。

No.

我认为从战略角度来说，这并不容易抉择。

I think it's not an easy choice to make strategically.

换句话说，如果只从国家安全这个重要但狭隘的角度看，你当然希望掌握最前沿的GPU和相关模型，来保护自己的企业。

In other words, on the one hand, if you look at it from just a narrowly defined but important national security point of view, you want to be able to have access to the most advanced GPUs and associated models in order to protect your company.

所以，把这两者分开是有道理的。

So there's a reason why you'd want to sort of separate the two.

但另一方面，从经济安全、创业者获取资源的角度来看，自己掌控整个研发链条能带来一连串的好处。

On the other hand, the other argument, and then you can just make an argument about economic security, access for entrepreneurs, there's a cascading set of advantages that comes from keeping the development for yourself.

不过，历史上这种做法通常效果不好。

On the other hand, that historically has not worked well.

就连美国早期发展工业时，英国试图阻止我们获得蒸汽技术等关键科技，最后也没拦住。

Even in the early development of The United States industries where the Brits tried to keep us from getting the steam technologies and other things didn't work.

我们最终还是找到了自己的路。

We figured out how to do it.

对吧？

Right?

第二个论点是，如果我们能让对方依赖我们的技术栈，反而对我们更有利。

And the second dairy argument is that we'd be better off getting them hooked and dependent upon our tech stack.

没错。

Right.

这样他们就没动力去另起炉灶了。

And have no incentives to do anything else.

我们就能继续保持领先，占据优势。

And then continue to lead there and have that advantage.

这个问题没有简单的答案。

And there's no easy answer to that.

根本没有一个明确的解决方案。

There's no one clear answer to it.

你做任何一个选择，都会付出代价。

You make one decision, there's trade offs.

所以我们最终决定把它们完全隔离开来。

So we made the decision largely to to wall it off.

而他们的后果是，正拼命适应这种情况。

And the consequences, they're racing to adapt to that.

他们对自己目前的处境和所做的事，其实挺满意的。

And they're, you know, pretty pleased about kind of where they are and how what they're doing.

是的。

Right.

现在就是这样。

Right now.

所以如果我们，嗯，我们能

So if we, you know, we get our

所以我认为，你不能把Manus这笔交易孤立来看，它和那个巨大的权力博弈背景是紧密相关的。

So I don't think you can look at that Manus deal in isolation from that big power struggle kind of setup dynamic.

这正是我想说的。

That's my point.

是的。

Right.

没错。

Right.

只是更大故事的一部分。

One part of a larger story.

我想跟你聊聊的另一个部分是软件公司的估值，这个领域你非常熟悉。

The other part of the story I wanted to ask you about are software valuations, which is a space you know very well.

它们的价格还在持续下跌。

I mean, they continue to fall.

跌得是不是太狠了？

Have they fallen too far?

让我给你换个角度说说这个事。

You know, I I so let me put this in context for you.

当年我们创立银湖资本时，有人觉得我们是在做科技领域的并购交易。

When we created Silver Lake, one of the insights people said it was tech buyouts.

其中一个关键洞察是，软件公司——那时候还是个新概念，那是1999年——其实比它们取代的那些企业更优秀。

One of the insights was a software companies, which was then a brand this was 1999, were a brand new type entity, were actually better businesses than the ones they replaced.

那些被取代的传统公司，因为不需要大量资本支出。

You know, the more traditional companies they replaced because you had no CapEx.

你把产品开发出来一次，卖上百万份都没问题。

You made your product once you sold a million of the times.

它深深嵌入客户的企业系统里，想拔掉都很难。

It became very sticky inside the customer enterprise, very hard to rip out.

你还能卖各种升级、培训和服务，配套收益特别多。

And you could sell all sorts of upgrades and training and services associated with it.

这可以说是资本主义历史上最棒的生意之一。

It's one of the greatest businesses in the history of capitalism.

而且这种模式特别适合杠杆操作。

And that was actually leverageable.

你完全可以拿它去贷款融资。

You could actually put debt against it.

所以我们买软件公司，通常花六到九倍的EBITDA，再配上三到四倍EBITDA的杠杆。

So we would buy software companies for six, eight times, nine times EBITDA and put three to four times EBITDA leverage on them.

没错。

Right.

你知道，模仿是最纯粹的恭维。

You know, imitation is the purest form of flattery.

二十五年后，人们买软件公司时出价高达EBITDA的二十倍，还加上十五倍的杠杆。

Twenty five years later, people are buying software companies for 20 times EBITDA and putting 15 times leverage on them.

这跟我们当年的做法完全不同。

So very different thing than what we do.

第一点是，这些公司的杠杆相对于现金流来说高得惊人。

So point one is there's a big chunk of leverage on these companies relative to its cash flow.

没错。

Right.

想到怎么管理这种高杠杆的公司，我觉得简直不可思议。

That's sort of stunning to me in terms of thinking about how you manage a company with that.

这算是第一点吧。

That's kind of one.

第二点是，如果你从整体来看软件行业，就得做出一个判断，这个我们稍后再聊。

Two is that if you think about the software business in general, you have to make a judgment, which maybe we can come back to you later.

但我以前觉得，人工智能会彻底改变我们这个世界。

But I think I think I used to think that AI was going to change the world as we know it.

最近我意识到，我之前对它的影响估计得太低了。

And I've recently concluded I way underestimated its impact.

为什么呢？

Why?

这个我们回头再讲。

We can come back to that.

我现在就想听。

I wanna know now.

不行。

No.

你看，你们这些人就是软件的核心。

Look at my you guys are the software.

这就是原因。

That's why.

但我觉得它将不只是颠覆，而是彻底改变我们经济中几乎一切的运作方式。

But I think it's gonna change not just disrupt, but transform the way we do almost everything in our economy.

Claude Code 就是第一个这样的例子。

And Claude Code is the first example of that.

想象一下，一场巨大的海啸正冲向海滩。

So but I imagine imagine a massive tsunami that's hitting the beach.

软件公司就像是海滩上第一批晒太阳的人。

The software companies are the first sunbathers on the beach.

所以他们是第一批被卷走的。

So they're the first ones taken out.

但这场海啸还会继续向内陆蔓延，席卷其他众多类型的企业。

But the way it's going to continue inland and take out lots of other kinds of enterprises as well.

所以软件只是更大范围经济变革的前奏。

So software is just a precursor of what's to come across the broader economic landscape.

没错。

Right.

再说第三点，如果你想象软件公司背负着高杠杆，那处境就非常危险了。

And then I think if you, third point I make is, if you imagine software on leverage, that's a very dangerous place to be.

高杠杆的软件公司。

Software on On leverage.

就是高杠杆，对吧。

On leverage, right.

它们的资产负债表杠杆很高，却没有任何现金流可以用来再投资公司。

You take these leveraged balance sheets with no cash flow to reinvest in the company.

没错。

Right.

它们现在就像一块正在融化的冰块。

They're now become a melting ice cube.

对吧？

Right?

所以在很多情况下，你连债务利息都付不起。

And so all you're doing is base you're in many cases not able only to service your debt.

根本没能力投资去重建公司，以适应人工智能时代。

You can't reinvest in rebuilding the company for the AI Age.

对。

Right.

这种处境非常危险。

That's a very dangerous place to be.

我想稍后跟你聊聊人工智能这部分。

I I I we I wanna ask you about the AI piece in this in in in a second here.

但在那之前，我得听听你对眼下这些热门的太空数据中心IPO怎么看。

But very I I gotta get your take on these moonshot IPOs that are sort of dominating the conversation now.

我说的就是那些轨道数据中心。

I'm talking, of course, about orbital data centers.

你怎么看这个事儿？

You you know, how what's your view on on that?

我对这个还真没什么深入的看法。

I really don't have a developed view of it.

我的意思是，在我考虑投资的时间范围内，这根本无关紧要。

I mean, I think it's it's not relevant in any timeframe that I'm thinking about investing.

对。

Right.

所以我也没怎么形成自己的观点。

So I haven't really developed a point of view about it.

不过我粗略看了看，发现这事儿在基础物理层面就面临很多难题。

But as I've just looked at it very superficially, there are a lot of challenges associated with basic physics.

要把这事做成，太难了。

Getting it done.

我还不如把精力放在下一个在阿比林的数据中心上。

And I think I'd rather focus on the next data center in Abilene.

对。

Right.

那个在火星上的。

The one on Mars.

那更贴近眼前一点了，我是说，当你整体看私募股权、风投领域，还有大型科技公司如何落地人工智能时。

So then a little more near term then, I mean, you know, as you look at the private equity landscape at large, the venture landscape at large, and then how big tech companies are implementing AI.

裁员这个事，确实成了不少公司的现实问题，大家对此都很担忧。

I mean, the idea of layoffs, you know, being a very real reality for some of these companies is something that people are concerned about.

我们是不是该预期一波由人工智能引发的裁员潮？不只是大科技公司，连那些习惯于削减成本的私募股权控股公司也会波及？

Do are we should we expect a wave of AI related layoffs, not just in big tech companies, but even private equity owned companies that are very used to cutting costs?

这是个非常好的问题。

It's a really good question.

如果从历史角度看，过去大约四十五年里，美国制造业的产出价值差不多翻了三倍。

So the, if you put this in an historical perspective, over the course of the last roughly forty five years, American, the value of American manufacturing output has roughly tripled.

大多数人以为它缩水了一半，但实际上翻了三倍。

Most people would tell you they thought it had been cut in half, but it's roughly tripled.

我们现在制造的东西，大概是1980年的三倍，但用工人数却只有当年的40%。

So we make roughly about three times as much as we did in 1980, but we employ 60% of the people to do that.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们现在的生产效率提高了十二倍，对吧？

So we're, you know, 12 times more efficient, right?

这种浪潮就是技术带来的变化。

And so in that kind of wave, that's what and that's technology.

这就是为什么如今就业市场这么疲软。

And that's why we have these weak employment markets today.

再加上生活成本上涨之类的议题，引发了广泛的社会讨论。

And we have all this political ferment around the cost of living and whatnot.

这跟进口没关系，完全是制造业技术进步的结果。

And that's just about not because of imports, but because of technology into manufacturing.

没错。

Right.

而AI肯定会让这种趋势加速得更加迅猛。

And that's about to accelerate enormously with AI for sure.

所以实际的结果是，如果

So the output is really If

重点在于这种增长幅度其实很小。

put it in the increase that's kind of point one.

第二点是，现在科技公司的情况有点不一样，但对整体经济来说，有个难题——我们稍后再谈科技公司，先说整体经济的困境。

Point two is, right now in technology enterprises are a little bit different, but the conundrum for the broad economy, we'll come back to technology enterprises in a second, the conundrum for the broader economy.

几个月前，一位非常著名的经济学家写了一篇很棒的文章，问：为什么经济表现强劲，就业却疲软，而且各行各业的高管都说，还没看到AI带来任何效率提升？

There's a really good article about just a couple of months ago by a very famous economist says, how can we have strong economic performance, weak employment performance, and executives reporting across the broader economy, no efficiencies yet from AI?

这正是当前的情况。

Which is the case.

所以发生的是，

So what's happened is,

在我看来，如果你去看各大企业——我们稍后再说科技行业，它们现在才刚开始享受到过去十年在云计算和其他技术上投入的成果。

in my view, is if you go to big companies across we'll come back to technology economy in a minute, they are just now beginning to reap the benefits of ten years investing in cloud based and other technologies.

现在才开始？

Just now?

就是现在。

Just now.

他们确实开始受益了，因为那些投资终于产生回报。

They really put, because those investments are starting to generate benefit for them.

更重要的是，现在掌舵公司的是一批数字原生代的CEO，他们懂得如何利用这些技术为自己创造价值。

And most importantly, there's a new generation of digital native CEOs running the companies who know how to use these technologies for their benefit.

上一代管理者在推行云技术时拖拖拉拉，现在都退休了。

And older generation of management, dragged their heels on implementation of cloud technology and now retired.

所以，AI对整体经济的积极影响，目前还没显现出来。

So we haven't seen yet the benefits of AI expressed in the broader economy yet.

事实上，如果你仔细看，企业反而在大量招聘，为的是吸引AI领域的人才。

In fact, if you look at it, we've actually had people are hiring up in order to have the talent for AI.

没错。

Right.

他们还处在J型曲线的底部阶段。

They're in the bottom part of the J curve.

现在大家在云技术上大力投入，就是为了加速AI在J曲线底部的那段进程，对吧？

The cloud based technology around accelerating part of the J curve for AI technologies around the bottom part of the J curve, people are investing in this stuff, right?

但这一代高管不会再像前任那样拖延AI的推进了。

But this new generation executives are not going to make the mistake their predecessors did by dragging their heels on AI.

他们会迅速行动。

They're going to go fast.

他们在这一块的投资非常非常积极。

They're investing very, very aggressively in it.

所以你会看到J曲线加速上升。

So you're going to see the J curve accelerate.

大家都相信AI会有巨大影响。

People believe that AI has great impact.

现在你去看科技圈，那只是个前奏而已。

Now, you go to the technology world, they're just a precursor of that.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

我觉得他们还做了点经济学家说的‘劳动力囤积’的事。

And I think you add they also did a little bit of what what economists have a term for labor hoarding.

没错。

Right.

他们把能招的人都招来了，现在才发现用不上这么多人。

They grabbed all this talent they could, and now they realize they don't need it.

但这只是整个经济接下来要发生的事情的前奏。

But that's just a precursor to what's gonna happen in the rest of the economy.

我问你一下，我们现在情况怎么样。

Let me ask you what we we got.

还剩一分钟。

A minute left here.

最后

Last

你是在科里·温伯格的董事会里吗？

You question for are on the board of Cory Weinberg.

没错。

That's true.

这种循环融资交易。

Circular financing deals.

为什么这不该让人担心呢？

Why should they not concern people?

因为我觉得这根本算不上循环融资。

Because I don't really think they're circular.

换句话说，一吉瓦的融资成本大约是500亿美元。

In other words, one gigawatt of financing one gigawatt costs about $50,000,000,000.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这个与英伟达的交易，说是涉及一吉瓦，其实是在说一吉瓦的规模。

So this deal with NVIDIA where there's like a gigawatt contemplate a gigawatt.

他们通常做的交易规模是20亿美元。

2,000,000,000 is the is the is the deal size that they normally do.

差不多吧。

Kind of yeah.

但这可是500亿美元的生意。

But it's a $50,000,000,000 enterprise.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以我并不觉得这是循环融资。

So I don't see it as circular financing.

它并没有真正支持你实际的支出。

It's not like it's meaningfully supporting the actual spending you're doing.

今年2026年，Core Weave从市场上融资了将近200亿美元。

In the last this year, 2026, Core Weave has raised almost $20,000,000,000 worth of financing from the markets.

但大家都不太关注这个。

People don't focus on that.

他们只盯着NVIDIA那一点点投资，说这是循环融资。

They focus on the little bit that came from NVIDIA and say that's circular financing.

我只是想说，确实，这里面的关联性挺强的。

I just mean, yeah, the the interconnectedness of it.

不只是Core Weave，顺便说一句。

Not just Core Weave, by the way.

我的意思是，你知道，所有这些公司都。

We're I mean, you you know, all these

我明白。

I know.

但我要是站在他们那个位置上，你看。

But I look I think if I was in the shoes of those guys, look.

我是个投资者。

I'm an investor.

我也在做类似的事情。

I'm doing the same kind of thing.

我也会投资这些公司。

I would invest in those companies too.

如果我知道自己在创造巨大的价值，而且这些公司的企业价值会大幅增长，我就会去投资。

If I knew I was creating huge amounts of value and they were going to grow in terms of, I think, in terms of enterprise value and I can make an investment on them.

没错。

Right.

但我更看重的是股权关系的一部分，而不是那种不可或缺的融资。

But I don't, I see it more as an equity piece of overall relationship as opposed to some financing without which you wouldn't be able to get Right.

这个方案已经落实了。

This implementation done.

对。

Right.

我只是觉得，这正是循环融资所暗示的意思。

I just think that and that's what circular financing implies.

循环融资是记者们喜欢讨论的话题。

Circular financing is something that journalists like to talk about.

我们其实就是试着追踪资金的流向。

I you know, we we we just try we try to track the track the the flow of the money.

我们一向就这么做。

That's that's that's how we like to do.

我明白你的意思。

But, I take your point.

这不过是大池子里的一小滴水。

It's small small drop in a larger bucket.

我觉得就是这样。

And I I think that's

这和过去完全不同，过去你直接花钱买公司，让他们买你的产品。

It's very, very different than than in the past where you were literally, buying paying companies to buy your product.

是的

Yeah.

那时候是一对一的关系，你投入多少，对方就跟你花多少。

And it was a one to one relation in terms of quantity, how much you put in and then what they spend with you.

没错。

Right.

没错。

Right.

这是完全不一样的情况。

It's a very different kind of thing.

格伦，非常感谢你参与我们的节目。

Well, Glenn, I wanna thank you for joining us.

这位是格伦·哈钦斯，北岛资本和北岛风投的董事长，正在TITV做客。

That is Glenn Hutchins, the chairman of North Island and North Island Ventures here on TITV.

现在我旁边的是阿尔文德·库马尔，EQT科技私募股权的联席主管兼合伙人。

I'm joined now by Arvindh Kumar, the co head of technology private equity and a partner at EQT.