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欢迎各位来到《The Information》的TITV。
Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.
我叫阿卡什·帕什里查。
My name is Akash Pashricha.
今天是11月19日，星期三。
It is Wednesday, November 19.
今天我们为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。
We have got a great show lined up for you today.
首先，我们将推出《The Information》全新的财经通讯。
First up, the debut of the Information's new finance newsletter.
我们将听取我们的财经编辑分享，为何他选择在当下推出这份通讯，以及他如何思考人工智能与金融生态的方方面面。
We'll hear from our finance editor on why he's launching that newsletter now in this moment, and all the different ways that he is thinking about the AI finance ecosystem.
接着，我们将对话通用资本客户价值基金的联合主管，该基金迄今已投入40亿美元。
We'll then talk to the co heads of General Catalyst's Customer Value Fund, which has deployed $4,000,000,000 so far.
我们还将与亚马逊云科技技术总监探讨利润率与人工智能的话题。
And we're also talking margins and AI with Amazon Web Services Director of Technology.
最后，我们将以与卡斯帕·李的对话结束本节目，他是风险投资公司Creator Ventures的联合创始人，同时也是一位长期的YouTube红人。
And finally, we are closing out the show with a conversation with Kaspar Lee, the co founder of the venture capital firm Creator Ventures and a longtime YouTube sensation himself.
这是一期内容丰富的节目，所以我们马上开始。
It is a big show, and so let's get right on into things.
今天，《The Information》发布了其有史以来第一份财经通讯。
Today, The Information published its first ever finance newsletter.
该通讯将每周三发布，由我们的财经编辑肯·布朗撰写。
It will publish weekly on Wednesdays and will be written by our own finance editor, Ken Brown.
因此，今天我们邀请肯来谈谈是什么促使他推出这份通讯，以及他目前在思考什么。
So we're bringing Ken on today to talk a little bit about what prompted this newsletter and what he's thinking about.
肯，欢迎来到TITV。
Ken, welcome to TITV.
很高兴你再次回来。
It's great to have you back.
嗨，阿卡什。
Hi, Akash.
很高兴回来。
Good to be back.
我今天早些时候开了个玩笑，现在再讲一遍。
Well, I made this joke earlier today, I'm gonna make it again.
今天是你的专栏大日子，也是盛大首秀。
Big day and big debut for you with your column.
恭喜。
Congrats.
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
是的。
Yes.
这非常令人兴奋。
It's very exciting.
写作很有趣。
It's fun to write.
我在这里一直做编辑，所以能真正写自己的东西是一种享受。
I'm an editor here all the time, so to get to really write my own stuff is a treat.
那么，跟我们说说是什么促使你今天推出这份通讯吧。
So talk to us about what prompted you to launch this newsletter now today.
其实，钱在科技领域一直很重要，但现在简直疯狂了，对吧？
Well, it's no surprise that money has always been a big deal in tech, but now it's bonkers, right?
我的意思是，我们以前谈的是百万、十亿，现在谈的已经是万亿了。
I mean, we used to talk about millions and billions, and now we talk about trillions.
因此，科技领域资金的流动，以及推动人工智能热潮的因素，迫切需要有人从金融的角度来审视这一切。
And so, just the movement of money around tech and what's driving, especially the AI boom, it begs for someone to just look at it through a financial lens.
没错。
Right.
当你说到金融视角时，跟我们聊聊你打算深入探讨哪些不同角度吧，因为你的专栏今天真的很好地概述了我认为的整个故事。
And now when you say financial lens, talk to us about all the different angles that you look forward to double clicking on, because your column today was a really great overview of honestly what I thought to be the entire story.
我读完之后心想，好吧，就这样了。
I kind of read it and I said, Okay, well, that's it.
这就是整个故事。
That's the story.
那么，在接下来的几周里，你打算深入探讨哪些方面呢？
And so what are the areas that you're looking to dive deeper on in the coming weeks?
所以你再也不会读到另一篇文章了，对吧？
So you're never gonna read another column, right?
这正是我
That's what I
不过，也不完全是，这有点像一本让人欲罢不能的书。
Well, no, it's kind of like, it's a bit of a page turner.
它让人觉得，哦，原来事情比这更复杂。
It's like, Okay, well, I didn't know it was more complicated than that.
所以我们将会追踪人工智能的建设进展。
So we're going to track the AI build out.
我们将追踪所有涌入人工智能领域的资金，观察谁在赢、谁在输，他们如何配置这些资金，以及最重要的是，风险在哪里累积。
We're going to track all the money pouring into AI and watch who's winning, who's losing, how they structure all the money, and probably most importantly, where the risk is building up.
所以现在人人都在谈论泡沫。
So everyone talks about bubbles now.
我今天要说的一点是，我们还没到那一步。
One of the things I say today is we're not there yet.
其中一个原因是，整个这场人工智能的大规模扩张背后，是世界上最有实力的公司支撑着。
And one of the reasons is because this whole big build out explosion of AI is backed by the richest companies in the world.
这些公司可以开支票，不是几万亿美元，但确实能开出很多张支票。
These guys can write checks, not for trillions, but they can write a lot of checks.
到目前为止，大部分资金其实都是他们支付的。
They've so far paid actually for most of it.
因此，这正是我们关注的重点。
And so that it's going to be what we're looking at.
但随后，债券市场、主权财富基金、养老基金都将为它提供融资。
But then, the bond market's going to finance it, sovereign wealth funds are going to finance it, pension funds.
甚至连你的寿险保单也可能投资于人工智能热潮。
Even your life insurance policy might be invested in the AI boom.
因此，我们将追踪所有这些资金，寻找风险、意外以及人们应该警惕的问题，并努力清晰地解释这一切。
And so, we're going to track all that and look for risks, surprises, things people should be wary of, and we're going try to explain it all very clearly.
现在，你说在泡沫方面我们还不到那个阶段。
Now, you say we're not there yet in terms of the bubble.
我很好奇，与你职业生涯中曾报道过的其他泡沫或过热时期相比。
I'm curious, compared to some of the other bubbles or some of the other frothy periods that you've covered throughout your career.
这一次与那些时期相比，看起来和感觉上有何不同？
How does this one look and feel different compared to those?
首先，泡沫的持续时间可能比任何人想象的都要长。
Well, the first thing is bubbles can last a lot longer than anyone thinks.
人们早就喊着泡沫来了，但两年后他们还在喊泡沫。
People call for a bubble, and two years later, they're still calling for a bubble.
因此，我对这种说法总是持一点怀疑态度。
So, I'm always a little skeptical of that.
原因是，这次有大量资金涌入，没有理由会出现崩盘，因为所有借钱的人都有时间偿还。
The reason is in this case, there's just tons of money going in there's no reason for there to be a crack because all the people who've been borrowing money have time to pay it off.
所以这一次是不同的。
So this one is different.
其中一个不同之处在于，它得到了世界上最有价值公司的支持。
Well, one is different because it's backed up by the richest companies in the world.
其次，它所资助的企业，不管你对这些资金怎么看，它们的增长速度非常快，现在也产生了大量收入。
Two, the businesses it's funding, say what you want about the dollars, they're growing very fast and they're having a lot of revenue now.
但它们还远未实现盈利。
They're nowhere near making profits.
这才是真正的问题。
So that's a real question.
这需要一段时间才能看清结果如何。
That's gonna take a while to see how it plays out.
所以目前，加密货币泡沫正在破裂，对吧？
So right now, there's a crypto bubble that's bursting, right?
所以，Ku跌了很多。
So, Ku is down a ton.
对。
Right.
所有这些重仓的人都在遭受损失，亏掉了半数资金。
All these people who loaded up are suffering, losing half their money.
这就是一个泡沫。
That's a bubble.
只是短期的。
Just short.
价格上涨，但毫无逻辑可言。
Goes up, and there's no logic to it.
这纯粹是狂热，而现在这种狂热已经结束了。
And it was just euphoria, and that's over.
这是一个重大的根本性变化。
This is a big fundamental change.
而且这不会是一帆风顺的，过程中会有波折，但还有很长的路可以观察事态如何发展。
And it's not going be smooth, there's going to be bumps, but there's just a long runway to see where this goes.
对，没错。
Right, right.
我有一件事想问问你，你之前提到过一些我们可以寻找风险信号的地方，也就是裂缝出现的地方。
One of the things I wanted to ask you about is you outlined some of the places we might look for signals in terms of risk, where the cracks come from.
股市显然是一个可以关注的地方，对吧？
The stock market is one obvious place you could look, right?
我的意思是，英伟达要公布财报了。
I mean, Nvidia reports earnings.
假设财报没有达到人们的预期。
Earnings, let's say, don't come in as people expected.
没问题。
Fine.
这是人们可能获得信号的一种方式。
That's one way people might get the signal.
但我很好奇，在幕后，尤其是在考虑债券市场以及这些市场后期的运作方式时，你还在关注哪些潜在的隐患或裂缝？
But I'm wondering behind the scenes, certainly thinking about the bond market and how some of these markets work in the back end, where else are you keeping track of in terms of fault lines or cracks that could potentially show up?
对。
Right.
你会开始看到风险的集中，对吧？
You start to see concentrations of risk, right?
人们承担了其他人可能不愿处理的风险。
Where people are taking on the risk that other people might not want to handle.
而他们可能很聪明。
And they may be smart.
我的意思是，人们一直在处理风险，但你要找出这些情况发生的地方，并尝试拆解分析。
I mean, people handle risk all the time, but you look for where that's happening and you try to unpack it.
我们已经做了大量关于英伟达的报道，因为它支持着所有这些人工智能初创公司。
So we've done a ton of stories on NVIDIA, which is backing all these AI startups.
它有强烈的动机推动人工智能发展，因为它销售芯片。
It has a real incentive for AI to grow because it sells the chips.
这是一类事情。
And it's one of these things.
如果人工智能增长放缓，英伟达销售的芯片会减少，他们所做的承诺可能更难兑现。
If AI's growth slows, NVIDIA sells fewer chips, the commitments they have made might be harder for them to make.
因此，你需要了解那里会有什么触发因素。
And so, you just need to understand what the triggers there would be.
一些数据中心建设方，这是一个资本密集型的业务。
Some of the data center builders, it's such a capital intensive operation.
他们中的一些人背负了大量债务，承担了这种程度的风险。
Some of them have taken on a lot of debt and taken on that level of risk.
需要关注的一点是，他们是否会落后于进度？
And one thing to look for is, do they fall behind schedule?
他们无法建成预期的数据中心吗？
They not produce the data centers that are supposed to be?
他们能否获得足够的电力？
Can they not get the power?
他们拿不到芯片吗？
Can they not get the chips?
这将成为这些公司的一个触发因素。
That's going to be a trigger for some of those guys.
对。
Right.
我最后一个问题是。
And last question for you.
在市场背后，有一些我们喜欢追踪的人。
Behind the markets, there are people that and we like to track.
还有一些我们都知道的人物，比如这些公司的创始人、超大规模云服务商的高管。
And there are the characters that we all know about, the founders of these companies, the executives of the hyperscalers.
我想知道，是否有一些我们没太关注、但你却非常留意的、在这个金融生态系统中值得关注的人物？
I'm wondering if there are people that we may not be paying as much attention to that you are actually watching very closely as an interesting character in this finance ecosystem.
是的。
Yeah.
我给你说两个。
So I'll give you two.
一个是马尔克·利普施茨。
One is this guy, Marc Lipschitz.
好的。
Okay.
他是蓝猫资本的负责人，这是一家投资公司，主要做债券。
He is the head of Blue Owl, which is an investment firm, mostly deals with bonds.
对。
Right.
我觉得他做了很多风险更高的事情。
I think done a lot of riskier stuff.
今天新闻里提到的。
In the news today.
今天新闻里提到的。
In the news today.
他们每天都上新闻。
They've been in the news every day.
他们一直
They keep
在做大交易。
doing big deals.
但他们已成为这些大型项目的主要投资者。
But they've turned out to be a big investor in these big projects.
所以他们是聪明人。
And so they're smart guys.
他们在承担他们认为合理的风险，但他们是值得关注的人物。
They're taking on risk they think is reasonable, but they're someone to watch.
另一个我要提到的人是CoreWeave的首席执行官迈克尔·因特拉托。
And the other person I'll say is Michael Interator, who's the CEO of CoreWeave.
CoreWeave是一家数据中心开发商和云公司。
So CoreWeave is a data center developer and cloud company.
他们是那些大量借贷并押注人工智能的公司之一。
And they are one of these companies that's borrowing a ton and making a big bet on AI.
到目前为止，他们的表现相当不错。
And so far, they've done pretty well.
他们进行了一次大规模的IPO，
They had a huge IPO,
股价下跌了不少，但公司仍在运营。
the stock is down a bunch, but the company is still happening.
这也是另一个值得关注的公司。
And that is another one to watch.
对。
Right.
很好。
Great.
好了，肯，祝贺你的通讯刊物上线。
Well, Ken, congrats on the launch of the newsletter.
这是我们将会密切关注并阅读的一家公司，期待很快再次邀请你回来。
It's one that we'll be reading and watching very closely, and look forward to having you back again on soon.
随时欢迎。
Anytime.
谢谢。
Thanks.
很快再聊。
Talk to you soon.
近年来，通用资本一直是风险投资领域最具创新性的公司之一，最近它收购了一家医院系统，并拓展了财富管理业务。
General Catalyst has been one of the most innovative companies in venture capital as of late, with its move to buy a hospital system recently and its expansion into wealth management.
几年前，该公司还设立了一种新型基金，名为客户价值基金。
The company also set up a new type of fund a few years ago called Customer Value Fund.
它已支持了包括软件、消费、医疗保健和金融科技在内的多个领域的公司。
It has supported companies across sectors, including software, consumer, healthcare, and fintech.
现在加入我们的是该基金的两位管理合伙人，普拉纳夫·辛格维和K。
Joining me now are the two managing directors of the fund, Pranav Singhvi and K.
V.
V.
莫汉。
Mohan.
各位，欢迎来到节目。
Gentlemen, welcome to the show.
很高兴你们能来。
It's great to have you here.
彼此彼此。
Likewise.
谢谢你邀请我们，阿卡什。
Thanks for having us, Akash.
非常感谢。
Really appreciate it.
所以，KV，我们先从你开始，KV。
So KV, let's start with you, KV.
而且，我不确定在这种情况下谁愿意先说。
And look, I don't know who likes to go first in these things.
所以，普拉纳夫，如果你愿意先说，当然可以。但我第一个问题是：谁能给我解释一下客户价值基金是什么？
So, Pranav, if you want to go first, by all means, But jump the first question I have is who's going to explain to me what the customer value fund is?
因为你看，这听起来像是一堆时髦术语。
Because look, it sounds like a bit of buzzwords upfront.
所以我们得深入聊聊这个话题。
So, you know, we gotta get into it here.
听起来不错。
Sounds good.
我可以来解释，卡维可以补充，如果你觉得这样合适的话。
I can take that one and Kavy can add to it if that works for you.
当然。
Sure.
简单来说，如果你考虑一家科技公司，一旦它达到一定规模，其现金的主要用途就是投资于销售和营销，技术术语称之为客户获取成本。
So look, the customer value fund is quite simply, if you think of a technology company, once it reaches a certain size and scale, the vast use of its own cash is to invest it in sales and marketing, the tech nomenclature for which is customer acquisition cost.
当这些公司达到一定规模后，它们会持续将自有资金投入销售和营销，以创造客户终身价值。
And what these companies do once they reach a certain size and scale, they're constantly investing their own cash in sales and marketing to generate customer lifetime value.
这些公司的问题在于，大量资金被长期占用在客户获取成本上，必须不断重新投资，因为今天投入的资金需要一段时间才能实现回报，比如十二到二十四个月。
What happens with these companies is a lot of that cash constantly gets tied up in customer acquisition cost, and they have to constantly keep reinvesting because they invested today and it gets realized over some period of time, say twelve or twenty four months.
随着时间推移，它们在客户获取成本上的投资可能获得数倍的回报。
And then over time, they may make multiple times their money on their investment in CAC.
客户价值基金的设计初衷，正是为了解决必须持续投入这一问题。
The customer value fund was really designed to solve the problem of the fact that you have to invest it in.
在销售和营销上的投资，需要一段时间才能看到回报。
It takes you some time to realize your return on sales and marketing.
这对公司的资产负债表造成了巨大的现金压力。
And that is a huge cash drain on a company's own balance sheet.
因此，客户价值基金的做法是，直接与公司合作，提供一个专门的资产负债表，用于资助其持续的销售和营销支出，而不是让公司动用自有资金。
So what the customer value fund does is goes to companies and says, instead of using your own cash to fund sales and marketing, we will provide you a dedicated balance sheet to fund your ongoing sales and marketing spend.
作为回报，我们仅从我们协助获取的特定客户群体中获得还款，直到达到目标回报倍数为止。
And in return, we only get paid back from the specific cohorts of customers we helped you acquire from that spend until we hit a target return multiple.
如果成功，我们将获得目标回报倍数。
If it works, we get our target return multiple.
如果该特定客户群表现不佳，回本时间更长，或在最坏情况下完全无法回本，我们将承担全部下行风险。
If that specific cohort underperforms, takes longer to pay back or on the extreme downside does not pay back at all, we own the full downside risk.
我们对公司的其他部分没有任何追索权。
We have no recourse to any other part of the company.
因此，这真正帮助公司更加积极主动地推动增长，并扩大在销售和营销上的投资。
So it really helps companies be a lot more front footed about growth and scale their investment in sales and marketing.
你如何看待这种回报模式？它既不是债务，也不是股权。
How do you think about, it's not debt, it's not equity in terms of the return.
从你们的角度来看，这看起来是怎样的？
What does that look like from your end?
是的，我的意思是，我们认为不可能只有两种金融产品。
Yeah, I mean, look, I think we reject the notion that there can only be two financial products.
我的意思是，走出硅谷这个小圈子，你会看到市场上存在各种各样的金融产品。
I mean, you go outside of the little bubble of Silicon Valley, you'll see all sorts of different financial products that exist in the market.
理解CDF是什么的最佳类比是，它大量借鉴了资产支持融资的理念。
The right analogy to think about what's what CDF is, it's really a lot of inspiration is taken from asset backed financing.
我们实际上将您在销售和营销上的投资视为一种资产，并提供一种看似且感觉像表外融资的方案。
We're effectively treating your investment in sales and marketing as an asset and providing what looks and feels like off balance sheet financing.
因此，这是一种前所未有的全新融资方式，专门适用于这个行业的增长需求。
And so it's just a completely novel way to fund your growth in a way that has not existed for this industry before.
它使创始人和公司能够释放出原本必须持续再投资于销售和营销的所有现金，转而用于其他更有生产力的领域，比如产品开发、工程投入、并购，长远来看，如果合适，甚至可以用于股票回购。
And it allows founders and companies to unlock all the cash they have to constantly keep reinvesting in sales and marketing to go do something else with, something that's much more productive, that is investment in product, in engineering, in M and A, and over time, if it makes sense, even buybacks.
因此，希望一些风险投资机构能够实现一直以来难以捉摸的DPI（已分配资本倍数）。
So hopefully some of the VCs can realize the elusive DPI that everyone's been missing.
对。
Right.
KB，跟我们说说迄今为止你们用这个基金投资了哪些公司。
KB, tell us about some of the companies that you've backed with this fund so far.
当然可以。
Yeah, absolutely.
到目前为止，我们已经投资了60多家公司。
We have backed over 60 companies by now.
在过去五年中，我们见证了巨大的增长。
In the last five years, we have had seen tremendous growth.
而且在我们的被投公司中，我们合作的一些公司也取得了显著进展。
And also in our companies, some of the companies we work with.
Lemonade是一家上市公司。
Lemonade, it's a company which is public.
我们与Grammarly合作，它现在叫Superhuman。
We work with Grammarly, which is now called Superhuman.
你可能
You may
已经看到了相关公告。
have seen the announcement.
对。
Right.
我们合作过的一家公司是一家名为Superplay的游戏公司，最近被Platika以约20亿美元收购。总的来说，我们在医疗、消费、金融、企业等领域都有合作公司，几乎覆盖了各个行业。
One of the companies that we worked with was this gaming company called Superplay, which was recently acquired by Platika for around $2,000,000,000 And across the board, we work with companies in healthcare, in consumer, in finance, across like in enterprise, basically across the field.
任何一家已经找到产品市场契合度、拥有长期客户生命周期价值，并希望从优秀走向卓越的公司，都是我们乐于合作的对象。
Any company which has found product market fit and has long lifetime values is a company, you know, and wants to go from good to great, is a company we like working with.
KB，我想继续和你探讨这个问题。
KB, I want to stick with you on this.
当你考虑客户获取成本时，成本只是一个方面。
When you think about customer acquisition costs, the cost is one thing.
至于你如何投入这些资金来获取客户，考虑到客户行为和他们线上生活方式的变化，我想知道过去几年里这一点是否有所改变。
The method in which you actually acquire those customers with respect to what you invest these dollars into, I wonder if that has changed at all in the last few years, given the shifts we're seeing in customer behaviors, where they live online.
B2B显然有所不同，可能变化没那么快，我想。
B2B is obviously a bit of a different game, maybe changing less quickly, I guess.
但你们是如何帮助投资组合公司利用这些资金来获取客户的呢？
But how are you guys dealing with the ways in which your portfolio companies acquire customers using that money?
我们总是告诉人们，我们帮助为火焰添柴加火。
Look, what we always tell people is we help putting fuel to the fire.
我们自己无法点燃火焰。
We cannot create the fire ourselves.
最擅长点燃火焰、找到增长方法的人是创始人。
The best people to create that fire to figure out how to grow are the founders.
我们实际上并不对这些公司应该如何花钱发表意见。
And we actually don't opine on how these companies should be spending.
我们真正发表意见的是，大多数公司都严重支出不足。
What we actually do opine on is most companies are massively underspending.
我的意思是，他们需要进行更多的实验。
What I mean by that is they need to run more experiments.
最好的渠道，他们所有的调整。
The best channel, all their changes.
无论是户外广告、Facebook广告，还是组建销售团队，甚至老实说，我见过很多公司通过电视广告取得了巨大成功。
Whether it's going to be billboards, or Facebook ads, or just hiring a sales team, Or honestly, have seen a lot of companies do really well even on TV.
我们的目标不是发表意见。
Our goal is not to opine.
我们的目标是让公司能够进行实验，因为这才是找到答案的方式。
Our goal is to allow the company to experiment because that is how you figure out.
随着环境变化，渠道会饱和，也会变得不饱和。
And as things are changing, channels get saturated, they get desaturated.
你需要持续实验，确保以边际效益最大化的方式提升企业价值。
You want to keep experimenting and making sure you're marginal maximizing your enterprise value.
对。
Right.
这就是我们看待支出的方式。
That is how we think of spend.
我们以非常宽广的视角来看待它。
We think of it in a very broad lens.
但是普拉达夫，我很好奇，从外部来看，营销方式在有效性方面发生了哪些变化？
But Pradav, I am curious, the ways of marketing from the outside, how have you observed those ways change in terms of what's effective?
因为五年前，Facebook广告可能非常有效，但现在可能就没那么有效了。
Because Facebook ads, they may have worked very well five years ago, they might not work as well right now.
那么，你看到公司正在采用哪些新的策略来获取这些客户呢？
So what are the newer strategies that you're seeing companies take on to acquire those customers?
你知道，这真的取决于情况。
You know, it really depends.
这非常因公司而异。
It's very company specific.
有些公司，Meta 仍然非常有效。
There will be some companies for whom Meta still works really well.
归根结底，这完全是因公司而异的事情。
Ultimately, it is a very company specific thing.
但正如你所言，我们对公司在获取客户方面的新方法感到非常兴奋。
But to your point, we are very excited by new ways companies can go acquire customers.
人们正在使用各种不同的方法，不仅限于渠道，还包括其他接触客户的方式。
People are using all sorts of different techniques, not only just based on channels, but other ways of getting in front of customers.
实际情况是，这因公司而异，因为这取决于你是消费类公司还是B2B企业。
It will vary from company to company is the reality, because it's gonna be very circumstantial based on, are you a consumer company or your b to b business?
如果你是一家B2B企业，如何才能有效地接触到目标客户？
What is the right way to get in front of if you're a b to b business?
你的实际购买决策者是谁？对于消费者来说，谁最有可能购买？
The person who's your actual buyer, what's the highest propensity to buy for somebody on the consumer side?
这一切实际上都取决于公司自身的情况。
That will all actually be a function of the company itself.
但正如你所提到的，KV也强调了这一点：这些公司需要多元化的渠道，并且必须不断实验以找出哪些方法有效。
But to your point, and what KV mentioned to really emphasize that, these companies need, a diversity of channels, and they have to constantly experiment to find out what works.
因为增长本质上是一个高度实验性的过程。
Because it's it's growth is in highly experimental endeavor.
你可能会发现某个渠道在一段时间内有效，但随后就会达到饱和。
You'll find a channel that works for a time period, and then it saturates.
在这一过渡期，必须持续寻找其他渠道。
And that interim period, have to keep looking for other channels.
而其中很多都依赖于实验。
And a lot of that will be through experimentation.
一旦你找到了有效的方法，就可以再次扩大规模，继续沿着这条道路前进。
And once you find something that works, then you sort of scale it again, and you keep going through that journey.
KV，当你在寻找投资标的时，考虑到当前估值似乎偏高，市场充斥着泡沫的讨论。
KV, as you're looking for companies to invest in, in this period where it seems like valuations are high, and we're in this sort of talk of a bubble.
你如何屏蔽噪音，如何调整评估公司的标准，以应对所谓的市场泡沫？
How do you tune out the noise and how do you really adjust your criteria for assessing companies in a way that sort of accounts for the froth, as people say?
是的。
Yeah.
普拉纳夫和我并不从事寻找下一个风口的业务。
Look, Pranav and I are not in the business of identifying the next few jobs.
我知道很多人在做这个，我祝他们好运。
I know a lot of folks are in that business, and I wish them the best.
我们从事的是另一类业务。
We are in the business of doing that.
我的意思是，我们与这些公司合作的方式是获取原始的交易级数据，而我的背景是技术。
What I mean by that is, the way we actually work with these companies is we get that raw transaction level data, which is, my background is technology.
我们与这些公司合作，直接连接到数据仓库，获取原始的交易级数据。
We work with these companies, we connect directly to the data warehouses, and you're getting the raw transaction level data.
我们在进行数学风控。
We are underwriting math.
你曾说过，数学不会随时间改变。
You wrote math doesn't change over time.
它始终如一。
It is the same.
因此，我们的标准一直以来都没有改变。
So for us, our criteria has always been the same.
我们也会错过一些公司，我当然不会点名，但你可能认为它们是热门公司，因为它们尚未找到产品市场契合度。
And there are companies that we pass on that, I obviously won't name them, that you probably consider to be hot companies because they have not found product market fit.
我们对产品市场契合度的定义非常简单。
Our definition of product market fit is very simple.
那就是：你能否在增长引擎中花一美元，并持续获得相应的投资回报？
It is, can you spend a dollar in your growth machine and consistently generate an ROI based on that?
对。
Right.
如果你能做到这一点，并且在我们获取的过去十二个月、二十四个月、三十六个月的交易数据中，通过我们运行的所有统计分析都能看到这种趋势，那就是我们希望合作的公司类型。
If you can do that and if you can see that over the last twelve, twenty four, thirty six months in the transaction data we are getting, in all the statistics that we are running, that is the kind of company we want to work with.
事实证明，尽管存在疯狂的估值，但仍有许多企业实际上是极其优秀的企业，在我们看来——我可以说我们对此非常有信心——它们在增长投入上仍然严重不足。
And it turns out, despite all the crazy valuations, there are an insane number of businesses, which are still fantastic businesses, that in our opinions, and I would say we feel very confident about this, are still massively under investing in growth.
对，我补充一下。
Right, I'm add that.
如果我可以补充一点的话。
If I can add to that.
听好了，估值会随着宏观环境上下波动，而这与公司的基本面毫无关系。
Look, valuations go up and down based on macro environment that has nothing to do with the fundamentals of a company.
因此，我们其实很幸运，因为我们并不依赖于估值或股价的涨跌，因为我们也会与上市公司合作。
And so it's actually we're quite fortunate that, you know, we are not basically indexed on the valuations going up and down or the stock market the stock price going up and down because we do work with publicly traded companies as well.
对。
Right.
我们只关注公司能否花一美元获取客户，并留住该客户，从而实现合理的投资回报率。
We're solely focused on a company's ability to spend a dollar, acquire a customer, and retain that customer to generate an ROI that makes sense.
这是一个非常基础的产品。
It's an extremely fundamental product.
而且，价格会上下波动。
And look, the prices go up and down.
我们完全不受这些影响。
We're kind of completely isolated away from that.
对。
Right.
普拉纳夫，最后一个问题是给你提的。
Last question for you, Pranav.
我读到过，KV在收购时说他喜欢健身课程。
I read that KV, on his buyout, he said that he likes fitness classes.
既然你们俩在这里是一对黄金搭档，普拉纳夫，你知道KV最喜欢的健身课程是什么吗？
Given that you guys are a bit of a dynamic duo here, Pranav, do you know what KV's favorite fitness class is?
我希望他正在和Ladder合作并使用Ladder，因为那是我们投资的公司之一，但我知道，KB。
I I would hope that he's working with Ladder and using Ladder because that's one of the companies we're invested in, but I know, KB.
KB，我们得去哪个课程？
KB, what's what's the class we gotta go to?
你知道，我以前特别喜欢码头的Rumble课程，可惜那家店已经关门了。
You know, I used to love a Rumble in the marina, which unfortunately shut down.
所以现在，我的朋友们一直想让我更多地尝试普拉提。
So these days, my friends have been trying to get me more into Pilates.
不过我最近更多地在考虑
Although I've been thinking more
Solid Core？
of a Solid core?
Solid Core？
Solid core?
但我还没去过几次。
Haven't really made more than once or twice yet.
所以我要过一阵子才能找到新的健身课程，正在寻求推荐。
So it is a while before I find my new fitness class looking for recommendations.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
太好了。
Great.
等你们俩到纽约时，来上F45吧。
Well, when you're both in New York, come to F45.
这是我最喜欢的课程，我们俩都能好好锻炼一下。
That's the class that I love, and we'll we'll we'll both get a workout in.
太棒了。
Awesome.
好吧。
Alright.
感谢你们两位的到来。
Well, thank you to to the both of you for coming on.
我们非常感激。
We really appreciate it.
你们对风险投资的见解非常有趣，我们很快还会再邀请你们回到节目中。
It's a very interesting way of looking at Venture, and we'll have you back on the again on the show again soon.
太多了，好的。
So much Okay.
拥有
Having
接下来的环节，我们将邀请我们的赞助商亚马逊云科技（AWS）。
Well, our next segment is with our presenting sponsor, Amazon Web Services.
利润率一直是与人工智能热潮相关的一个重要话题，因为各地的公司都在努力寻找的不仅是如何利用这些新工具产生收入，更是如何实现盈利。
Margins have been a big topic related to the AI boom, as companies all over are trying to figure out not just how to generate revenue with these new tools, but also turning a profit.
我想邀请AWS的总监邵南迪，谈谈企业如何让这项技术为他们的利润带来实际效益。
I want to bring on Shao Nandy, a director at AWS, to give us his take on how companies can make the technology work for their bottom line as well.
邵，欢迎再次做客节目。
Shao, welcome back to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
很高兴见到你。
Good to see you.
我有点担心你会问我关于健身偏好的问题，而不是AI，因为我恐怕答不上来。
And I'm nervous you're going to ask me about my fitness preferences instead of AI for a minute, because I don't think I have good answers for that.
好的。
Okay.
我本来想说，如果你愿意，可以先回答这个问题。
I was going to say, you're welcome to answer that question if you want to start with.
也许我会去参加你的课程。
Maybe I'll check out your class.
也许我会
Maybe I'll
检查一下，好的。
check Okay.
嗯。
Yeah.
好吧。
Alright.
那么，我们来谈谈人工智能吧，我猜你对这个话题更熟悉一些。
Well, so let's talk about AI, which I presume you're a little more comfortable talking about.
我们新闻部最近一直在讨论的一个话题是：公司如何通过人工智能赚钱。
You know, one of the topics that we've been talking about a lot here in the newsroom is how companies make money from AI.
我想听听你对这个问题的实地看法，以及你看到客户是如何应对这个问题的。
And I want to get your take on how you view this issue on the ground, and how you're seeing customers grapple with that issue.
因为从我们的角度来看，虽然收入很多，但盈利却很难实现，成本却很高。
Because from our view, there's a lot of revenue, earnings are harder to come by, the costs are pretty high.
你是怎么看待这个问题的？
How are you thinking about that issue?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这一切都回归到对投资回报率的理解，我会给你一些干扰投资回报率概念的外部因素。
Look, I think that it all comes back to understanding ROI, and I'll give you a couple externalities that are throwing off the ROI concept.
我先从这一点说起。
I'll start with that.
当你在实施AI解决方案，特别是使用智能体时，你必须思考：你是想降低业务成本，还是想提升收入和营收增长？
When you're doing an AI solution, using agentic especially, you have to think about, are you trying to remove costs from your business or are you trying to improve your revenue, your top line growth?
这是由产品驱动的吗？
Is this product driven?
这是否增加了人们愿意付费购买的新功能和特性？
Is this adding new functions and features that people are going to pay for and buy?
在生成式AI早期，我们看到许多软件公司遭遇了困境，我们常称它们为ISV，即向客户销售各种产品的软件公司，他们说：我知道我的客户会喜欢这个东西。
And we saw a lot of pain with software companies in the early days of generative AI where, you know, we often refer them as ISVs, but the software companies that sell various products to customers, they're like, I know my customers will like this thing.
我要把它开发出来。
I'm gonna build it.
他们并没有认真考虑如何从中盈利。
And they didn't necessarily think about how they're gonna monetize it.
他们是打算为新的SKU、新的产品功能收费，还是希望通过它提升客户留存率？
Are they gonna charge for a new SKU, a new product feature, or is it gonna improve customer retention?
因此，如果没有提前做好这些思考，ROI模型就会被打破。
And so not doing that upfront thinking sort of broke the ROI model.
第二点是，要与你的财务伙伴和团队进行沟通。
The second piece would be communicate that with your finance partners and teams.
这是能带来收入的吗？
Is this revenue driving?
还是能降低成本的？
Is it cost eliminating?
当你有了这些指标和衡量标准，做决定就会容易得多。
When you have those metrics and measures, it becomes much easier to make that decision.
最后一点，也是你可能想深入探讨的，是我们之前节目中讨论过的推理和推理成本，以及运行AI的各个方面。
The last piece, and this is probably the one you're gonna wanna unpack, is, we talked on a prior show about inference and inference costs, and we've talked about all those pieces of the aspect of running AI.
我们预计在未来一两年内，推理成本将下降90%。
We see inference costs dropping by 90% over the next year or two.
我知道这是一个备受争议的话题，但当你看到推理成本下降时，使某项应用盈利所需的回报率会发生根本性变化。
So I know that's been a hotly debated concept, but when you look at inference costs coming down, the amount of return you need to make something profitable changes radically.
随着成本降低，许多应用场景得以突破瓶颈。
So lots of use cases are getting unblocked as you bring costs down.
你认为推理成本会如何下降？
How do you see those inference costs coming down?
影响这一趋势的因素有哪些？
What are the inputs into that?
因为正如你正确指出的，我们在新闻编辑部写过一些报道，谈到了不仅仅是芯片，还有模型的成本，对吧？
Because as you correctly pointed out, we in our newsroom, we've written stories about how the costs of not just the chips, but the models, right?
我的意思是，成本确实在下降。
I mean, the costs were coming down.
但根据我们所看到的数据，成本已经趋于平稳。
They've kind of plateaued based on the data that we're seeing.
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我很想知道在未来一两年内，这些成本将如何下降。
I'm curious how you see that shaking out over the next year or two to bring those costs down.
我们来谈谈一个
Let's talk about a
几个因素。
couple elements.
当你思考今天的AI时，我们通常在公众场合把AI当作一个宽泛的概念，但实际上它包含许多组成部分。
So when you think about AI today, and we often talk in the public about AI as a big broad thing, but there are many elements within it.
AI的一个组成部分是构建所有这些复杂的模型。
One element of AI is actually building all these complex models.
所有前沿模型提供商都在与初创公司一起投入大量精力，构建下一代优秀模型、调整模型等等。
All the frontier model providers are putting lots of effort along with startups in building the next great model, tuning models, etcetera.
老实说，从芯片和计算的角度来看，大量AI消耗都用于训练和调整这些模型，而不是实际使用它们。
And honestly, a lot of the AI consumption from a chip perspective, from a compute perspective is driven toward training and tuning those models versus actually using them.
而这就是我们目前所看到的变化。
And that's the change that we're seeing right now.
消费正转向使用，而使用就是我们通常所说的推理。
The consumption shifting to usage, and usage is what we largely call inference.
因此，迄今为止的许多报告只是从更广泛的AI领域出发，说芯片变得更大了。
So a lot of the reporting that's been done to date just looks at that broader AI landscape and says, hey, chips are getting bigger.
它们变得更昂贵了。
They're getting more expensive.
我们正在看到参数更多的模型。
We're seeing higher parameter models.
模型的价格在上涨。
Models are increasing in price.
也许这个月的token成本比上个月更高了。
Maybe even tokens cost more this month than last month.
但如果你
But if you
看看发生了什么变化在
look at what's changed in
在对齐的足迹中，我们看到越来越多不同类型的芯片。
the aligned footprint, we're seeing more and more diverse types of chips.
你和我曾经讨论过为AI设计的专用基础设施芯片，它们具有不同的形状和尺寸。
You and I have talked about purpose built infrastructure chips designed for AI in different shapes and sizes.
你还能看到许多不同类型的模型。
You're also seeing many different types of models.
因此，在亚马逊，我们有自己的Nova Micro模型。
So at Amazon, we have our own Nova Micro model.
它是一个非常小的模型，用于特定的使用场景。
It's a very small model used for specific use cases.
它仅支持文本。
It's text only.
随着Agentic的兴起，这些小型模型被用于更简单的任务，从而降低了平均成本。
In the rise of AgenTik, we're seeing these smaller models get used for simpler tasks and that drives average costs down.
因此，你可以关注的一点是，你问我构成它的要素是什么，你是只使用最大的单一芯片，还是为不同的工作负载使用不同尺寸的芯片？
And so one of the things you can look at, you asked me what the elements that make it up are, are you just using the single biggest chip or are you using different sizes of chips for different workloads?
你是只使用一个通用模型来回答所有问题，还是使用更小、更专业的模型？
Are you just using one general purpose model that can answer any question, or are you using smaller, more specialized models?
而AgenTic真正释放了这种可能性。
And AgenTic really unlocks that.
我还可以告诉你一些其他技术，但大致就是这样的格局。
A couple more techniques I can tell you about, but that's sort
了。
of the landscape.
这实际上与我们上次节目讨论的芯片话题相关。
Well, and this actually relates to discussion we were having last time on the show about chips.
你基本上谈到了如何根据请求将查询路由到特定类型的芯片，不一定需要最顶尖的芯片，考虑到价格因素，使用更可行或更匹配请求的芯片即可。
You basically talked about the routing of the inquiry or the request to using a specific type of chip, maybe not needing the best in class chip just yet, given the pricing, using something that is a little more feasible or appropriate in terms of the request.
我很好奇，你之前提到过一到两年的时间线。
I am curious, you gave that one to two year timeline.
那么，在客户朝着未来这一目标努力的过程中，目前他们面临哪些挑战？
What are some of the challenges that you're seeing customers grapple with now then as they sort of work towards hitting that goal in the future?
我想回到几个月前我们关于首席AI官和相关人事话题的讨论。
I'm going to harken back to a conversation we had many months ago on chief AI officers and people things and so on.
一个巨大的挑战在于，我们对软件开发和产品构建的心理模型正在发生根本变化。
One big challenge is our mental model towards software development and product building is really changing.
你可能听说过敏捷方法论和其他概念，但通常你需要获得许可才能开始构建，构建完成后发布，然后持续迭代，可能持续数年甚至更久。
You've heard about agile methodologies and other things, but typically you ask permission to build something, you build it, you get it out there and you iterate on it for a while and it survives for years, maybe many years.
我们现在看到的AI情况非常棘手：你构建了一个用例，然后发现这东西太贵了。
What we're seeing happen now with AI that's been really hard is you go build a use case, you're like, oh, this thing's really expensive.
对。
Right.
但如果你不断迭代，它在一个月、两个月或三个月内成本降低90%，这就会彻底改变经济模型。
But if you iterate on it and it gets 90% cheaper in a month or two or three, that really changes the economics.
如果这个应用从只有10个用户扩展到一百万用户，经济模型和收入流也会发生巨大变化。
And if this scales up and goes from being used by 10 users to a million, that also really changes the economics and revenue flow.
所以我认为，真正不难的是人性层面，真正难的是这种快速迭代和持续变化的节奏。
So I think actually the human side isn't hard, this rapid state of pace and of change.
对。
Right.
而且愿意说：嘿，这个东西行不通。
And the willingness to say, hey, this thing's not working.
我要快速失败，放弃它，转而投入下一个项目。
I'm gonna fail fast and drop it and move to the next project.
这可能是一个成本效率项目，也可能是一个新产品。
And that could be a cost efficiency project or a new product.
对吧？
Right?
可能是方程式的任何一方。
Could be either side of the equation.
再结合这样一个挑战：但我还不想在多迭代几次之前就放弃。
And combine that with the challenge around, but I don't want to give up before I've iterated a little bit.
我该如何找到这种平衡？
How do I find that tension?
从人性的角度来看，这相当有趣，因为我们还没谈到的是，人工智能领域内的收购潮正变得越来越频繁。
So on the human side, this is kind of interesting because one thing we haven't talked about yet is the spate of acquisitions have been sort of becoming more frequent in the AI sector.
这些收购是上市公司收购初创公司。
These are acquisitions of public companies buying startups.
在某些情况下，这些也是上市公司收购其他上市公司。
These are public companies buying other public companies as well in some cases.
我很感兴趣的是，人性层面的这一现象，因为其中确实涉及人才因素。
I'm curious, the human side of that is interesting because there's certainly the talent component.
但就技术而言，您如何看待您的客户在‘是应该自主研发还是应该直接收购’这个问题上做抉择？
But with respect to the technology, how do you see your customers dealing with the question around, is it more appropriate to build or is it more appropriate to buy?
因为同样，您会引入一百到两百名员工，其中一些人技术能力非常强。
Because again, you're bringing in 100, 200 employees, some of whom are very technical as well.
而这一过程的人性层面在于，团队必须
And the human side of this is the teams have
一起协作。
to work together too.
他们得弄清楚这一部分。
They've to figure that part out.
我认为这是一个持续的问题，尤其是对企业和中型公司而言，那就是：嘿，我有这么多供应商。
I think it's a constant question, especially from enterprises and mid market companies to me, which is, Hey, I have all these vendors.
我有一个HR产品软件供应商。
I have a HR product software vendor.
我有一个ERP供应商。
I have an ERP vendor.
我有一个CRM供应商。
I a CRM vendor.
我是该采用他们的AI解决方案和功能，还是自己开发？
Do I inherit their AI solutions and features or do I build my own?
而矛盾在于，自己开发从未如此容易。
And the tension is that building your own has never been easier.
借助AI驱动的软件工具，可以非常快速地构建。
Like with AI driven software tools, can build really fast.
但我让他们思考的思维模型大概是三个方面。
But the mental model I asked them to think about is probably three things.
你所构建的东西是否为你的客户带来了独特价值？
Does the thing that you're building bring unique value for your customers?
还是说它相对缺乏差异化？
Or is it relatively undifferentiated?
因为如果它相对缺乏差异化，你可能不希望用有限的人才资源去开发它。
Because if it's relatively undifferentiated, you probably don't wanna use that limited talent pool to build it.
你应当从供应商、合作伙伴那里购买，或者请朋友帮忙，无论如何。
You wanna buy it from a vendor, from a partner, you want a friend to help you with it, however.
你的组织做好准备了吗？
Is your organization ready?
比如，如果你之前很少接触AI，我刚刚跟你讲过快速失败、快速推进、成本优化以及使用不同模型的概念。
Like, if you haven't worked much with AI, I just told you about this concept of failing fast and moving quickly and being able to cost optimize and use different models.
如果你还没准备好，那么你可能会花费比购买更多的时间和精力。
If you're not ready, then you might end up costing yourself a lot more time and effort than buying.
实际上，目前最成功的公司都在同时做这两件事。
And really, the most successful companies right now are doing both.
它们购买一些常见的通用横向应用场景，同时构建那些独特的功能，尤其是当它们能利用自己的数据时，因为数据才是差异化关键。
They're buying some of these common shared horizontal use cases and building the things that are distinct, especially when they can use their data, because data is the differentiator.
你绝对不希望跟街上的每一家公司都一模一样。
You just don't want to be the same as every company down the street from you.
对。
Right.
很好。
Great.
好了，Shown，每次邀请你来做客都令人愉快。
Well, Shown, it's always a pleasure to have you on.
感谢你前来参与这场对话，我期待很快再请你回来。
Thanks for coming on and engaging conversation, and I look forward to having you back again on soon.
我也很期待。
Looking forward to it.
回头聊。
Talk soon.
干杯。
Cheers.
很快再跟你聊。
Talk to you soon.
好的。
Okay.
几天前，我们邀请了Beehive的首席执行官做客节目，讨论他们为创作者推出的新工具。
A few days ago, we had the CEO of Beehive on the show to talk about their new tools for creators.
今天，我想邀请Beehive的投资人卡斯珀·李做客，他通过自己的风投基金Creator Ventures投资初创公司，为我们带来一些关于当前创作者经济现状以及网红领域近期变化的实地观察。
Today, I want to bring on one of Beehive's investors, Casper Lee, who invests in companies at his venture fund, Creator Ventures, to give us a bit of a view on the ground around the current state of play in the creator economy and how the game has changed lately in the world of influencers.
卡斯珀，欢迎来到节目。
Casper, welcome to the show.
很高兴你来参加。
It's great to have you on.
很高兴见到你。
Lovely to see you.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thank you for having me.
我们来聊聊创作者经济吧。
Let's talk about the creator economy.
这是一个快速变化且充满活力的生态系统。
It is a fast moving and dynamic ecosystem to play.
从根本上说，现在的竞争比以往任何时候都更激烈。
And look, fundamentally, it's more competitive than ever.
对吧？
Right?
人工智能已经彻底改变了这个游戏。
You have AI that has very much changed the game.
如今的创作者比以往任何时候都多。
You have more creators than ever.
我很好奇，当你和这群人交流时，他们目前面临的主要挑战是什么？
I'm curious, when you're talking to this group, what are the biggest challenges that they're facing on the ground right now?
我以前制作视频。
So I used to make videos.
我从2010年开始，那时你可以建立观众群体，并且可以相对保证订阅你频道的观众在你发布内容时能看到。
I started in 2010, and when I started, you could build an audience, and you could kind of guarantee that a bunch of
那些订阅了你频道的人在你发布内容时能看到。
those people who subscribed to your channel would see your content when
当你发布内容时。
you posted it.
这使得建立观众群体变得更困难，因为发现内容的难度增加了。
It did make it harder to build an audience because it meant discovery was harder.
如今，建立观众群体更容易了，但留住观众却难得多。
Today, it's easier to build an audience, but it's a lot harder to retain.
对。
Right.
为什么呢？
Why is that?
这是因为我们从基于订阅的算法转向了基于兴趣的算法，你基本上会被推送更多算法认为你想要看的内容，这最终能让观众在平台上停留更久，但也可能让创作者面临巨大困难。
It's because we've gone from a subscription based algorithm to an interest based algorithm, and you're basically fed more of what the algorithm knows that you wanna see, which ultimately keeps audiences on platforms for longer, but it can also make it really difficult for creators.
好的。
Okay.
那么，你认为创作者该如何应对这个问题呢？
And so how do you see creators dealing with that issue then?
嗯，这很困难。
Well, look, it's tough.
我的意思是，你必须不断对抗变得无聊的问题。
I mean, you you have to consistently fight against, you know, becoming boring.
你必须不断推出能激发观众兴趣的新内容。
You have to constantly put out new things that excite your audience.
你可以创造一些成功的格式，或者根据算法上人们感兴趣的内容来制作内容。
You can maybe create winning formats or you can create content based on what people are interested on the algorithm.
但确实，作为创作者，你必须不断挑战自我。
But yes, it's constantly about pushing yourself as a creator.
你不能仅仅依赖你的相关性或已经积累的观众群体。
And you can't just rely on your relevancy or the fact that you've built up this audience.
你得想办法创造出更好的开场钩子。
You have to you know, figure out how to create better hooks.
你必须更进一步地鞭策自己。
You have to push yourself further.
你得创造出真正独特有创意的内容。
You have to come up with really unique creative content.
你还需要与其他创作者合作，以便被更多人发现。
You also have to collaborate with more creators so you can be discovered.
有太多事情要做，但确实非常非常困难。
There's so many things, but it is really, really difficult.
然而，制作优质内容的回报意味着，你确实可能比以往任何时候都更快地爆红。
However, the rewards of making good content do mean that you can really blow up faster than ever to.
对。
Right.
我很好奇。
I'm curious.
你提到创作者对这些受众的依赖，而这种情况在某些时候可能存在问题，因为如今根据推荐算法，无法保证你的受众一定会看到你发布的内容。
You you talk about the the reliance on these audiences for for some creators and how that can be problematic in some cases, because there's actually no guarantee that that audience is going to see the stuff that you put out based on the discovery engines now.
当你现在与创作者交流时，他们的目标是不是转向建立电子邮件列表，或者通过通讯等方式拥有一个属于自己的受众群体？
When you talk to creators now, I mean, is the move or the end game to sort of build an email list then or some kind of an audience that you own with a newsletter?
你知道，这在早期博客时代似乎就是这样。
You know, that that kinda seemed to be in the early days of blogging.
对吧？
Right?
创作者最初就是从这里开始的。
That's where the creators kinda started.
然后他们转向社交媒体，觉得：哦，我所有的受众都在这儿了。
Then they came to social media, it was like, well, I have them all here.
为什么我需要一个邮件列表？
Why why do I need an email list?
现在我听到人们说，不。
Now I I hear people saying, no.
我需要建立一个邮件列表。
I need to build the email list.
这才是最终目标。
That's the endgame.
没错。
Exactly.
建立一个超越社交媒体平台的东西非常好。
It's really good to build something beyond what you have on social.
这显然可以借助Beebehive的工具来实现。
So that could obviously be with the tools of Beebehive.
它们开发了极其出色的工具。
They build incredible tools.
这可以是电子邮件列表。
That could be email lists.
这可以是辅导服务。
That could be coaching.
这可以是各种各样的东西，尤其是在新版本发布之后。
That could be all sorts of things now with the new release.
但没错，我认为创作者需要在还能利用受众的时候，建立一个不依赖于自身热度的可持续商业模式。
But yeah, I think creators need to leverage their audiences while they can to build a sustainable business that doesn't rely on their relevancy.
不过，要把受众从社交媒体平台上转移出来真的很难，因为这些平台仍然是构建受众最有效的地方，受众也主要集中在这些地方。
It is really hard though to take audiences off social platforms because these are still the most effective places to build audiences, and this is where the audiences generally are.
我认为，许多创作者在尝试推出自己的应用程序之类的东西时，很难让大部分受众留在其他地方。
And I think everyone who tries to launch like a lot of creators try and launch their own apps and stuff like that, and it's it's really hard to get a big segment of that audience to stay somewhere else.
所以，归根结底，我认为关键不在于只是把他们转移到另一个平台，而在于建立一个超越单纯作为创作者的可持续商业模式。
So, yeah, ultimately, it's about building, I think rather than just, you know, taking them to another platform, it's about building a sustainable business outside of just being a creator.
这可能包括在背后使用另一个平台。
And that could include another platform, like, behind that.
它甚至可能是我最终选择的道路——联合创办了一家公司，这样我就不用再依赖自己的影响力了，但外面的环境确实很艰难。
It could even be what I ended up doing, which was co founding a business that meant that I didn't have to rely on my relevancy, but it's tough out there.
对。
Right.
谈谈你创办的这家公司吧。
Talk about the business that you founded.
你为什么决定创办它？
Why did you decide to create it?
大约八年前，我联合创办了一家名为 influencer.com 的公司，目的是帮助创作者获得更多品牌合作的机会。
So I co founded a business called influencer.com about eight years ago, and I wanted to help creators have more options to do brand deals.
当时，愿意与创作者合作的品牌并不多，我们必须想办法说服这些品牌，以及那些大型代理机构，这是一个极具潜力的投资领域。
Back then, there weren't that many brands willing to work with creators, and we had to figure out how to convince them, along with the big agency holdcoats that this is an incredible space to invest in.
从那以后，我们确实做到了。
And since then, we've done that.
此外，我还是 Creative Ventures 的合伙人，这家公司投资了一些杰出的消费互联网企业。
And then I'm also partner at at Creative Ventures, which has invested in some incredible consumer Internet companies.
我们非常乐意在社交媒体和市场推广方面帮助他们，到目前为止，这几年一直非常顺利。
We really like to help them when it comes to social, when it comes to go to market, and it's been it's been a great few years so far.
对。
Right.
我想聊聊你在创作者经济中的经历，因为正如你所说，你很小的时候就开始制作这些视频了。
I wanna talk a little bit about about your journey in the creator economy because, like you said, you started creating these videos when you were quite young.
在你获得关注之前，你还记得自己制作的第一个视频吗？
Before you started to get traction, do you remember the first video that you ever made?
天啊。
Oh my gosh.
太丢人了。
It's so embarrassing.
我拍了一个视频，讨论洗澡和淋浴哪个更困难。
I made a video about what was more difficult, bathing or showering.
所以，对于你们美国的观众来说，是洗澡还是淋浴。
So bathing, actually, for your US audience or showering.
而且
And
我们也可以称之为洗澡。
We can call it bathing too.
我们也可以称之为洗澡。
We can call it bathing.
好的。
Okay.
酷。
Cool.
共识是什么？
What was the what was the consensus?
我说洗澡更难，因为进去的时候特别热。
I said bathing was harder because it's really hot when you get in.
但你知道，我觉得人们想看这种内容。
But, you know, that that's what I thought that people wanted to see.
你知道吗？
You know?
我以为那是内容，但我完全错了。
I thought that was content, and I was completely wrong.
它真的失败了，花了两年时间才达到一千个订阅者。
It really flopped, and it took two years to get to a thousand subscribers.
但随着时间的推移，我开始明白人们想看什么。
But over time, I've started to figure out what people wanted to see.
好的。
Okay.
我很好奇，作为创作者，你是如何制定策略来弄清楚人们想要什么的？
And I'm curious, how did you approach your strategy as a creator than figuring out what people wanted?
因为就像你说的，游戏规则变了，但某种程度上，我看过你的视频，你尝试了很多不同的东西。
Because like you said, the game has changed, but in some ways, I've seen your videos, you tried a lot of different stuff.
很难把你归类为：我做游戏、我做恶作剧、我做生活方式、我做评测。
It's hard to put you in a box in terms of, I do games, I do pranks, I do lifestyle, I do reviews.
你好像什么都试过了。
You seem to have done it all.
我都试过了。
I tried it all.
我认为其中一直不变的是我作为一个年轻人的形象。
I think one of the things that was consistent was me being this young person.
我不喜欢‘真实’这个词，但确实在镜头前做我自己。
I hate the word authentic, but truly just being myself on camera.
然后我用了‘三个C’的信条，就是保持创意、保持一致，并尽可能多地与他人合作。
And then I used the three C's mantra, which is just be creative, be consistent, and collaborate with as many people as possible.
在那些日子里，如果你能和一个拥有大量观众的人拍个视频，双方都提到对方的内容，你的观众数量几乎可以翻倍。
Back in those days, if you could like make a video with someone with a big audience, and you both spoke about each other's content, you could like nearly double your audience.
那时候，通过合作来增加订阅者真是太容易了。
It was so easy back then to kind of collaborate your way to subscribers.
现在这仍然是一个很好的工具，我认为人们可以互相合作，进入彼此的算法。
Now it's still a great tool, I think, for people to work with each other and get into each other's algorithms.
但正如我所说，订阅者不再那么重要了。
But as I said, subscribers are no longer as important.
因此你需要不断合作，不断创作出色的内容。
So you need to constantly be collaborating and constantly creating amazing content.
在镜头前长大，把你的生活大量放在YouTube上，是什么感觉？
What was it like to to grow up on camera, putting so much of your life on YouTube?
这很有趣，因为我拥有完全的掌控权。
It was fun because I had complete control.
我并不是那种被推到一个拥有庞大观众席位的惊人位置的童星。
And it wasn't like I was a child star who was put into this incredible position where I had this massive audience.
我当时16岁，有点失败者，却在说服别人和我一起拍视频。
I was 16, a bit of a loser, and convincing people to make videos with me.
大家都说不，于是我让我的狗来拍，它不得不配合。
And everyone was saying no, so I asked my dog to do it, and he had to.
所以我认为，随着时间推移，你不仅是一个人才，还是一名制片人、一名导演。
And and so I think the fact that over time, you're not only, you know, a talent, but you're also a producer, you're a director.
你基本上是在以比传统方式更慢的速度学习这些事情，传统方式中你可能会一夜之间彻底颠覆一切。
You're kinda learning things a little bit slower than you would maybe in the traditional sense where you completely break it instantly overnight.
然而，今天的创作者有时确实会一夜爆红。
However, creators today do sometimes break it overnight.
所以我认为这可能更具挑战性，但我确实有足够的时间去逐步理解每一个阶段。
So I think that can be a lot more challenging, but I've really had time to figure out each stage as it came.
但你停止制作视频了。
But you stopped making videos.
你最后一部YouTube视频是六年前发布的。
Your last YouTube video was was, like, six years ago.
没错。
Exactly.
我的意思是，当时 lockdown 刚刚开始，我想：哇。
I mean, I it was it was lockdown was starting, and I was like, wow.
我想稍微休息一下。
I like I wanna take a little bit of a break.
现在一切都乱糟糟的。
Everything's crazy right now.
我有一些企业，需要我完全专注于它们。
I have these businesses where I need to completely focus on.
显然，这对许多公司来说都是巨大的转变。
Obviously, it was a massive shift for a lot of companies.
我意识到，如果我想确保这些公司成功，就必须全身心投入其中。
And I realized, like, if I wanted to, you know, really make sure that these companies succeeded, I had to focus fully on that.
而且，我认为要做一名YouTube创作者，尤其是，制作内容并做好它是一份全职工作。
And also, I think to be a YouTuber, especially, it's something as you know, making content and doing it well is a full time job.
没错。
Right.
这是你无法兼顾的事情。
It's something you can't do.
这有点像是副业。
That's a bit of a side hustle.
所以我为自己作为创作者所做的事情感到非常自豪。
So I was like, I'm really proud of what I did as a creator.
现在是时候专注于下一个阶段了。
Now it's time to focus on this next stage.
我原本以为有一天会回来，但你知道，已经过去好几年了，我依然没有那种冲动。
And I thought I would come back one day, but it's, you know, it's been quite a few years and still don't feel the itch yet.
那你一点都不会想念它吗？
And so you don't miss it at all?
有时候我会看看别人在做什么。
I think sometimes I look at what people are doing.
我觉得这太棒了。
I'm like, that's amazing.
看起来真的很有趣。
That looks like a lot of fun.
但当你真正想起其中所付出的一切，以及那种持续处于这种 treadmill 上的精神消耗时，这真的很艰难。
But when you actually remember all that goes into it and the mental kind of draining of, like, constantly being on this treadmill, it's tough.
对吧？
Right?
所以如果我要做这件事，我不希望再承担我目前参与的其他所有工作。
And so I if I was gonna do it, I wouldn't wanna also have all of the other work that I'm currently involved in.
我不想让任何事情掉队。
Don't wanna let anything slip.
但我觉得，尽管我可能听起来对当今创作者的困境有些悲观。
So but I do think it's it's still I I might sound doom and gloom in terms of, like, the struggles of creators today.
但创作者领域仍然是实现人生目标的极其重要的平台。
It's still a hugely important place to, I think, do anything that you wanna do in life.
不仅是成为企业家，我觉得今天的创作者身份对许多不同职业都有巨大帮助，掌握内容创作、剪辑等技能非常重要。
Not only be an entrepreneur, but I feel like creators today, it benefits so many different careers that you can go and just understanding how to make content and edits and all of those things, I think, is super important.
当你作为风险投资人观察如今的公司时，创作者经济在很大程度上呈现出三方互动的格局。
When you think about now the companies that you see as a venture capitalist, in many ways, it feels like the creator economy is it's kind of this three sided story.
一方面是创作者，一方面是受众，另一方面是品牌。
There's the creators, there's the audience, and then there's the brands.
我想也许还有平台，也许这是一个四方面的故事。
I guess maybe there's the platform, maybe it's a four sided story.
但在这个领域，比如影响者营销，这已经是一个存在了多年的商业模式。
But in there, it feels like influencer marketing, for example, I mean, this has been a business model that has been around now for quite a few years.
这个领域里真正的创新在哪里？
Where is there actually innovation in that category?
现在有哪些初创公司真正让你印象深刻？
What are the startups that actually impress you right now?
因为在我看来，感觉我们已经见过很多这样的东西了，对吧？
Because in my mind, it feels a little bit like we've seen a lot of this, right?
我们已经见过帮助品牌寻找创作者的技术，对吧？
We've seen the technology that helps brands find creators, right?
也许有一种方法能帮助他们更好地筛选。
Maybe there's a way to help them filter better.
我们已经见过帮助他们创作内容的商业模式。
We've seen the business models where it's helping them create the content.
我想我的问题是，鉴于我觉得我们已经看到很多了，现在什么对你来说是新颖而令人兴奋的？
I guess my question is, what's new and exciting for you right now, given that I feel like we've seen a lot of it?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为在影响者营销领域，我们正在开发一些令人难以置信的技术，但与此同时，与创作者和人类合作时存在大量边缘情况，因此要实现一套完全自动化的软件，能独立完成企业级影响者营销活动的每一个环节，是非常困难的。
I think in the influencer marketing space, you know, we're building some incredible tech, but at the same time, a lot of it has so much edge cases to working with creators and humans that in terms of a fully automated software that does absolutely every single part of a proper influencer marketing campaign, especially for enterprise clients, is quite difficult.
所以目前这仍然非常依赖人力，这其实很好。
So it's quite human heavy still, which is great.
正因为如此，我们建立了一个很棒的业务，并拥有一群优秀的人才。
And we've built a great business with great people because of that.
在某些领域，我看到了一些创新。
In terms of some spaces, I'm seeing some innovation.
我的意思是，你正看到TikTok商店上电商正在发生的变化，对于长尾创作者来说，他们与小型、中型到大型品牌合作有着巨大的机会。
I mean, you're seeing what's happening right now with commerce on TikTok shop, and there's a massive opportunity with the long tail of creators for them to be able to do work on TikTok with, you know, small to medium to large sized brands.
像UKAI这样的公司——我们是其投资者——已经构建了非常出色的技术，显然利用了人工智能的力量，使这一过程更具可扩展性。
And there's companies like UKAI, which we're investors in, that have built, like, really great technology, obviously harnessing the power of AI to to make that a far more scalable.
我认为，在我们所从事的纯影响者营销领域，即创作者与大品牌合作时，你无法完全放弃人类所需的控制权；而像TikTok商店这种更靠后的环节，则更容易被技术颠覆。
I think when you're working in like the pure influencer marketing space that we work in in terms of like creators working with big brands, you can't fully let go of the control that the humans needed to have, whereas, like, that kind of lower funnel TikTok shop element is a lot more disruptible with tech.
对。
Right.
在你走之前，我想问你一下，你的职业生涯似乎分为两个不同的部分。
I wanna ask you before you go, you've sort of had these two different halves to your career.
一个是内容创作方面，另一个是你最近专注于的商业方面。
One is the content creation side, and one is the business side now that you've been focused on as of late.
如果你思考一下Casper每天早上醒来的原因，是什么驱动着你？在过去十年里，随着你现在专注于商业，这种动力有改变吗？
If you think about Casper's why, why he wakes up in the morning, what drives you, has that changed over the past decade, given that you're now focused on the business?
我认为它已经改变了。
I think it has changed.
过去，我只是想成为一个非常成功的创作者。
It used to be like I wanted to be this very successful creator.
现在，推动我的是帮助创作者成为企业家，同时帮助企业家成为创作者。
Now kind of what drives me is helping creators become entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs become creators.
我喜欢将这两个世界结合起来，因为它们都是我的热情所在。
I love to bring those two worlds together because those are both my passions.
所以，是的，这随着时间发生了变化。
So yeah, it's something that's changed over time.
但我一直觉得，当我还很小的时候，我想成为创作者的原因是因为其中蕴含的创业精神。
But I always think when I was really young, think the reason I wanted to become a creative was because of the entrepreneurial spirit of it.
我认为这是一种从零到一的绝佳方式。
And I think it's such a great way of taking something from zero to one.
现在，世界上任何有手机和网络连接的人都能做到。
And now anyone in the whole world could do it as long as they've got a phone and an Internet connection.
我认为，随着人工智能的发展，它将让人们创造出远超以往的优质内容。
I think with AI as well, it's going to just allow people to create way better content than could ever before on their own.
这种想法是从哪里来的，卡斯珀？
Where does that come from, Casper?
你成长过程中身边都是企业家吗？
Were you surrounded by entrepreneurs growing up?
你读的那本书，还是你父母让你这么做的？
Was this book that you read, or was it something your parents told you to do?
这跟我妈妈是个企业家、总是尝试新事物有一定关系。
It was a bit of my mom being an entrepreneur and always trying new things.
她曾经还开过一家巧克力工厂，而且我也非常欣赏理查德·布兰森的所作所为。
She even had a chocolate factory at one stage, and then I also loved what Richard Branson did.
我读了他的书，一直是很忠实的粉丝。
I read his book, and I was a big fan.
每次我出行坐飞机时，都总希望能乘坐维珍大西洋航空，因为我觉得他们是最早在飞机上安装屏幕的公司之一。
When I whenever I, like, flew somewhere, I was always wishing I could fly on Virgin Atlantic because I think they were one of the first people to have the screens on the planes.
对。
Right.
我后来就对他着了迷。
And I just became obsessed with him.
我觉得这家伙太酷了。
I was like, this guy is so cool.
你见过他吗？
Have you met him?
我确实见过他几次。
I did manage to meet him a few times.
我甚至搭过一次他乘坐的航班，最棒的是，你可以想象，很多CEO或者像理查德·布兰森这样的人，坐飞机时只想安静休息，不跟别人搭话。
I even managed to be on a flight that he was on, and the best thing about him was, like, you can imagine a lot of CEOs or people like Richard Branson, when they're on a plane, they just wanna chill and not talk to everyone.
但他却真的在机舱里走来走去，问每个人过得怎么样。
He was literally walking around the plane asking how everyone was doing.
最后，他拿起麦克风之类的设备，说：‘嘿，我是理查德。’
And then at the very end, he got on the mic or whatever you call it, and was like, hey, Richard here.
非常感谢你们乘坐康弗热gent大西洋航空。
Thank you so much for flying Convergent Atlantic.
我当时就想，这太酷了。
I was just like, that's epic.
我相信那一定是一个非常圆满的时刻，也许你将来真的会和理查德·布兰森合作做点什么。
Well, I'm sure that was a very full circle moment, and maybe maybe you'll do business with Richard Branson and something.
他几乎涉足商业世界的每一个角落，所以我相信你们迟早会做成一笔生意，如果还没做的话。
He's he's involved in in just about every corner of the business world, and so I'm I'm sure you guys will do a deal together at some point, if you haven't already.
还没到那一步。
Not just yet.
你知道吗？
I'm you you know what?
有些人说永远不要和你的偶像做生意，咱们走着瞧吧。
Some people say never do deals with your heroes, so we'll see.
好吧。
Alright.
如果你真的做了，记得回来和我们分享一下。
Well, when you do it, if you do it, come back on the show and tell us about it.
百分百。
A 100%.
好的。
Alright.
谢谢你能来参加节目，卡斯帕。
Well, thanks for coming on, Caspar.
这是一次很棒的对话，我很期待看到你未来会有什么成就。
It's a great conversation, and look forward to seeing what you get up to down the road.
谢谢，老兄。
Thanks, mate.
再见。
Bye bye.
好了，今天的节目就到这里。
Well, that does it for today's show.
提醒一下，我们每周一至周五上午10点（太平洋时间），下午1点（东部时间）直播。
A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.
我要感谢我们的冠名赞助商亚马逊网络服务公司，也要感谢各位的收看。
I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I want to thank you for tuning in.
我们非常感谢大家的支持。
We really do appreciate your viewership.
我已经迫不及待期待明天的下一期节目了。
I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.
祝你星期三剩下的时间愉快。
Have a great rest of your Wednesday.
那我们先再见了。
Bye bye for now.
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