Inside SpaceX’s Historic $2T IPO: Nasdaq Debut, Crypto & Retail Traders, the Starlink Threat

欢迎各位收看《The Information》的TITV节目。

Welcome everyone to The Information's TITV.

我是阿卡什·帕什里卡。

My name is Akash Pasricha.

今天是6月12日，星期五，欢迎来到我们特别策划的SpaceX专题节目。

It is Friday, June 12, and I wanna welcome you to our special SpaceX edition of the show.

我们先来放个开场片头。

Let's do the intro.

三、二、一。

Three, two, one.

今天SpaceX要正式上市了，我们会从各个角度全面解读这场史无前例的IPO。

We SpaceX got all this is going public today, and we are going to cover this historic IPO, the biggest ever from every angle.

我们请来了一位航天产业分析师，深入聊聊SpaceX接下来该往哪儿走。

We're gonna bring on a space industry analyst for a technical discussion on where SpaceX will have to go from here.

我们还请到了一位零售交易领域的专家，他在这场故事里扮演着至关重要的角色。

We also have an expert on retail trading coming on the show that is going to be a massive part of this story.

所以我们来聊聊普通投资者对这件事的看法。

So we'll get the latest on how everyday investors are thinking about it.

不过在开始之前，我想先请我们的埃隆·马斯克记者泰奥·韦特来给大家铺垫一下背景。

But I want to start by bringing on our Elon Musk reporter, Theo Wayt, to set the stage.

他一路跟踪报道了这次IPO的每一个细节，另外我也请来了我们的加密货币记者杨悦琪，因为这场IPO在加密圈里也引发了不少讨论。

He has been covering every inch of this IPO in the run up, and I also want to bring on our crypto reporter, Yueqi Yang, because there has been some buzz in that arena, too, about this IPO.

泰奥和杨悦琪，欢迎来到节目。

Theo and Yueqi, welcome to the show.

很高兴你们能回来。

It's great to have you back.

能来很高兴。

Good to be here.

泰奥，我先从你开始。

Theo, I want to start with you.

好的。

Okay.

每股135美元，这就是定价。

So 135 a share was the price.

这个价格其实也在我们预料之中。

This is kind of what we were expecting.

那现在到底是谁买了这只新股呢？最新情况怎么样？

What's the latest on who has actually bought into this IPO?

散户占了大约百分之二十，这在IPO里算是非常高了，不过比几周前有些人预期的还是要低一点。

So it's about 20% retail, which is extremely high for an IPO, but is actually less than some people were thinking a few weeks ago.

剩下的主要是那些规模巨大的主权财富基金。

And then the rest is, you know, gigantic sovereign wealth funds.

贝莱德至少投入了50亿美元。

BlackRock is buying at least $5,000,000,000.

简直是在疯狂砸钱，还互相较劲，看谁出的钱更多。

Basically, is is pouring money into this thing and and trying to fight each other to hand over even more money.

Yueqi，说真的，几乎所有人都在关注，包括加密货币圈，对吧？

And Yueqi, I mean, literally everyone, this kind of includes the crypto community, right?

这周你关于加密投资者如何抢购这次IPO的报道真的很精彩。

I mean, you had some great reporting this week on crypto investors trying to get into this.

是的。

Yes.

现在出现了一种新型加密产品，让投资者可以押注未上市公司的估值。

There's this new type of crypto product that allows investors to bet on the valuation of pre IPO companies.

这些产品叫加密永续合约，属于衍生品的一种，能让人们在不实际持有资产的情况下，对价格波动进行投机。

And these are called crypto perpetual contracts, which are a form of derivatives that allow people to speculate on the price of something without actually owning the underlying assets.

在币安、Hyperliquid这些平台上，这类新产品正慢慢流行起来。

So on Binance, on Hyperliquid, these kinds of new products are slowly taking off.

比如SpaceX的加密永续合约，目前交易价格在168美元左右，比SpaceX的IPO价135美元高出20%以上。很多人认为，这是加密市场发现价格的新机制，反映出市场对SpaceX的巨大兴趣——它提供了一个真实的价格水平，显示了人们愿意买入和卖出的价位。

There's for the SpaceX crypto perpetuals, people are trading it at around $168 and that's about more than 20% higher than the SpaceX IPO price of $135 So people are saying that this is a new mechanism for price discovery from the crypto market that shows how much interest there is in SpaceX because it provides a price level that shows how much people are willing to buy and sell at.

而且，Yueqi，这其实挺有意思的，因为Theo，你刚才提到了这里的市场需求。

Well, and Yueqi, this is kind of interesting because, I mean, Theo, you talked about the demand here.

我们知道，每个下单的散户投资者都没能拿到他们申请的股票，因为这次认购实在太火爆了。

We know that every retail investor that place an order for this, I mean, they're not going to be They have not been able to get these shares that they ordered because of the fact that it's so oversubscribed.

所以这实际上是一种间接参与这种资产的方式。

So you actually I mean, this is a sort of a side way that you can get exposure to this asset.

这里面有风险吗？

Are there risks here?

永续合约我们都知道，对整个加密行业来说是有一定风险的，对吧？

I mean, perpetual futures, we know that they pose some risk to the crypto industry as a whole, right?

没错。

Right.

这跟实际持有股票完全是两码事。

So this is totally different from owning the actual underlying shares.

你根本没持有任何底层资产。

You're owning no underlying assets.

纯粹是凭空衍生出来的。

It's literally based on thin air.

跟任何底层资产都没关系。

It's not based on any underlying assets.

它跟任何东西都没有挂钩。

It's not pegged to anything.

它只是提供一种方式，让人交易价格本身。

It is just providing a way for people to trade on the price, on the number itself.

永续合约本身还带有杠杆。

And perpetual futures itself comes with leverage.

如果价格下跌，还存在被强平的风险。

So there's also risk with liquidation if price does drop.

另外还有流动性风险，因为这些产品都很新，在币安上的交易量普遍偏低。

And then there's also the risk of liquidity because a lot of these products are new, they're relatively thinly traded on Binance.

我看到过去24小时交易额大约有10亿美元，确实在上升，但跟比特币这类主流产品相比，交易量还是小得多。

I saw that the past twenty four hours, there's about $1,000,000,000 in trading volume, rising, which but it's still not widely traded comparing to the more popular products like Bitcoin and Perpetuals.

所以，西奥，有没有人在这个情况下站出来当空头呢？

So, Theo, is there anyone who who has come out to be, you know, a seller in this scenario?

或者，有没有人公开说过自己做空SpaceX？

Or, I mean, anyone who is, I guess, short SpaceX or who has openly talked about?

这事儿引来了很多评论家的议论。

There's a lot of punditry.

就是那些老面孔，比如吉姆·查诺斯、迈克尔·伯里，这类人。

You know, the the usual suspects, Jim Chanos, Michael Burry, people like that.

还有专栏作家保罗·克鲁格曼，他写了一篇很长的文章，今天刚发出来。

There was a big Paul Krugman, the columnist.

他今天还专门写了一篇长文谈这个事。

He wrote a big sub sack about this today.

确实有不少人讨厌SpaceX，经常挑刺，连咱们节目里也有人这么说，但我不确定有没有人敢在第一天就直接开空单。

There's a lot there are lot of haters that are willing to criticize SpaceX, you know, including people on the show sometimes, but I'm not sure if anyone is brave enough to, like, immediately open a short on the first day.

毕竟现在有大量散户在往里冲，而且纳斯达克100指数一个月后就要纳入这只股票，那肯定会引发新一轮强制买入。

I mean, that that would be extremely risky considering the amount of, you know, retail people that are trying to pour into this stock and the fact that, you know, the Nasdaq 100 index inclusion should happen in about a month, which is gonna lead to another round of forced buying.

长远来看，肯定会有空头出现。

I mean, I think longer term, there will certainly be shorts.

接下来一年里，各种锁定期陆续到期，到时候可能会给做空创造机会。

I mean, there there's gonna be, you know, these lockup periods that will expire throughout the next year that will, you know, potentially give people opportunities to short.

但我真没想到会有人今天就开这么大的空头头寸。

But I don't I I I would be very surprised if there were some kind of gigantic short that someone was opening today.

Yueqi，你有关注过预测市场吗？

Yueqi, have you been tracking the prediction markets at all?

他们有没有利用这个时机？

Are they making use of this moment?

有的。

Yeah.

在预测市场上，也有跟SpaceX相关的投注。

So on prediction markets, there's also bets related to SpaceX.

在Poly Market上，他们允许美国以外的投资者押注SpaceX的收盘估值。

On poly market, they're offering investors outside of The US to bet on the closing market cap of SpaceX.

目前数据显示，SpaceX收盘估值超过2万亿美元的概率大约是78%，但超过2.2万亿美元的概率就降到50%左右了。

And right now it's showing that there's about 78% of chance that SpaceX will close at above $2,000,000,000,000 valuation, but then the probability drops to around 50% for it to close at more than $2,200,000,000,000 valuations.

需要注意的是，这些市场只对美国以外的投资者开放。

It's important to know that these are markets that are only open to non US investors.

在美国的平台，比如Cauchy，你是没法下这个注的。

You cannot make this bet on US platforms such as Cauchy.

原因是，这种投注的性质太像证券合约了。

And the reason is that the bet, the nature of the bet itself resembles too much as securities contract.

在美国，如果预测市场提供这类合约，可能会触犯证券法规。

And in The US that will imply that the prediction market is offering these contracts could potentially run into a security loss violation.

所以，目前美国用户还不能对这些事件进行投注。

So, these are not events that you can currently bet on as a US users for now.

对。

Right.

我们是在东部时间刚过11点的时候录的这段。

And we should say that we're taping this shortly after 11:00 Eastern.

等你看到这段时，情况可能已经变了，数字和预测也会略有不同。

So, depending on how things change when you see this, the numbers and predictions may differ slightly.

Theo，埃隆·马斯克今天在哪儿？

Theo, where is Elon Musk today?

我们知道格温·肖特威尔打算在哪里庆祝这个时刻吗？

What do we know about where Gwen Shotwell is going be celebrating the occasion?

埃隆现在在星基地。

So Elon is in Starbase.

今天早上他们从那边进行了直播，他还发表了一段简短的讲话。

They, had a broadcast this morning from from there where he gave a little speech.

纽约这边有一群埃隆的粉丝在纳斯达克外面守着，希望能偶遇他。不过，除非他马上坐上私人飞机过来，否则他是赶不过来的。

There were a bunch of Elon fans here in New York that were kind of camped out outside Nasdaq hoping to catch him, but unless he, gets on the private jet soon, he's he's not gonna be here.

不过，SpaceX的总裁格温·肖特维尔，也就是埃隆的二把手，还有首席财务官布雷特·约翰逊以及其他几位高管，今天早上都去了纳斯达克，今天也在纽约。

But Gwen Shotwell, who's the SpaceX president and kind of the number two under Elon, as well as CFO Brett Johnson and a number of other kind of key execs were at Nasdaq this morning and are in New York today.

你知道，他们发表了一些演讲，而且我想在摩根大通大厦还有一场盛大的庆祝活动。

You know, they gave they also gave some speeches, and and there's gonna be a big party at the JPMorgan Tower, I believe.

所以所有的银行家等等都准备好一起庆祝了。

So all the all the bankers and and stuff are ready to ready to celebrate too.

太好了。

Great.

谢谢 Theo 和 Yueqi 两位能来参加节目。

Well, Theo and Yueqi, I wanna thank you both for coming on.

这位是我们的马斯克记者 Theo Wayt，这位是我们的加密货币记者 Yueqi Yang，都来自《The Information》。

That is Theo Wayt, our Elon Musk reporter, and Yueqi Yang, our crypto reporter here at The Information.

SpaceX 的技术目标相当宏大。

SpaceX's technical ambitions are quite tall.

为了深入聊聊当前技术的实际情况，我请来了 TMF Associates 的总裁 Tim Farrar。

To unpack the current state of the technology itself, I want to bring on Tim Farrar, president of TMF Associates.

Tim，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Tim, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It is so great to have you here.

自从 S1 发布以来，这还是你第一次上节目，那次我们拿到了不少新信息，不过这些内容我们《The Information》也早就报道过了。

It is the first time that we've had you on since the S1 dropped, and we got a lot of new information in there, although we reported a lot of it here at The Information as well.

我想先从 Starlink 聊起。

The one thing I wanted to start off with is Starlink.

你和我之前发消息时提到，根据那份文件，每个用户的平均收入一直在下降。

You and I were texting, and you pointed out to me that ARPU, average revenue per user, has been coming down per the filing.

这是为什么呢？

Why is that?

能详细说说你的分析吗？

Walk us through your analysis.

是的，今年年初星链开始免费提供第二个终端，还给那些想带设备出行的人推出了优惠套餐。

Yeah, so I mean, Starlink started offering free second terminals early this year and offering discounted packages for people who want to use their own package, so when you go traveling and you take a second terminal with you.

这确实让他们的用户数量增长了不少，但同时也拉低了每个用户的平均收入，因为这些人付的钱实在太少了。

So that's had the helpful effect of boosting the subscriber numbers that they're reporting, but it also brings down the ARPU because those people just aren't paying very much.

所以我们看到第一季度，星链业务的收入增长并没有达到预期。

So, what we saw in the first quarter is that SpaceX didn't add as much revenue in the Starlink business as they might have hoped.

他们新增了将近一百五十万用户，这在S1文件里是个亮点，但每个用户的平均收入却大幅下滑。

They added a whole bunch of customers, about almost 1,500,000 customers, and that was great in terms of what it said in the S1, but the ARPU came down a long way.

而现在，我们看到的正是对此做出的反应。

And now what we're seeing is sort of a reaction to that.

他们从五月开始涨价了。

They've been raising prices in May.

今天他们又在某些方面再次调高了价格。

They've raised prices in some ways again today.

显然，他们需要从这些客户身上提升收入，接下来最值得关注的是，他们的用户增长能否继续达到人们的预期。

Clearly, they need to boost revenues from those customers, and it's going to be really interesting to see if their subscriber growth really keeps up with what people are expecting.

所以，价格在上涨。

So, prices are coming up.

根据你的分析，我想问的是，如果把这次涨价和你计算出的需求影响联系起来，你认为ARPU会回升吗？

I guess, from your analysis, my question is, if you equate today's price increases, sounds like, or the price increases we've seen with the impact on demand, per your calculations, are you expecting ARPU to come back up?

我觉得ARPU至少在第二季度之后可能会稳住一点，但真正关键的是，他们在第二季度能否像第一季度那样新增这么多用户。

I think the ARPU will hopefully stabilize a little bit, at least beyond the second quarter, but the real question is whether they add as many subscribers in the second quarter as they have done in the first quarter.

在涨价之后，这一点可没法保证。

That's by no means guaranteed after these price increases.

我们看到公司上周宣布，总用户数已经达到了一千二百万，但这里面包含了大量政府和企业客户——这对他们当然有帮助，但并不是S1文件里公布的那个面向消费者的主力数字。

We did see the company go out there and announce that they got to 12,000,000 total customers last week, but that includes a whole bunch of government and enterprise customers who, you know, very helpful for them, but that's not the consumer headline number that is reported in the S1.

所以到第二季度末，我们就能看到净新增用户数是否真如大家所期待的那样，毕竟现在人人都在说，星链几年内就要达到数亿用户。

And so, we'll see at the end of Q2 if that number on net ads is as good as people hope because everyone's out there talking about how Starlink is going to have hundreds of millions of subscribers in a few years' time.

这会不会只是暂时的波动？

Is this just an air pocket?

我记得格温·肖特维尔上电视时说，哎呀，有些地区我们的容量已经饱和了。

I mean, I think Gwynne Shotwell was on TV saying, Oh, well, we're running out of capacity in some areas.

我觉得这话对有些人来说，不过是借口罢了。

I mean, I think that's an excuse for some people.

还有人会说，可能是我们产能还没跟上，接下来几个季度会推出新款终端。

Other people would give the excuse that, well, maybe we need to ramp up production and we're going to make some new terminals in the next few quarters.

也许这样能缓解一点压力。

Maybe that will help.

但归根结底，如果你在竞争激烈的市场里涨价，而你得从现有的宽带服务商手里抢客户的话——

But at the end of the day, if you start charging more in a competitive market where you have to win customers from the existing broadband providers.

你得从康卡斯特、AT&T这些公司手里把客户抢过来。

You have to win them from Comcast and AT and T.

我们看到分析师们纷纷下调电信公司的评级，说星链会把所有这些客户都抢走。

And we see analysts out there downgrading the telcos and saying Starlink is going catch all these customers.

但如果他们每月收55美元，再加上10美元的终端租赁费——现在就是这个价，客户才不会轻易换呢。

Well, they're not going to do that if they're charging $55 a month plus another $10 for the terminal rental, which is what they're charging at the moment.

至于星链到底会不会对电信公司构成威胁，这个问题挺有意思的。

Now, this question of the threat that Starlink may or may not pose to telcos is interesting.

你之前写过一点关于T-Mobile合同的事。

You've written a little bit about the T Mobile contract.

那个合同现在是什么情况？

What's the status of that contract?

说到直接销售，星链去年星链移动业务的收入超过了6.3亿美元，但很多人居然都没注意到。

Well, there, on the direct to sell, I mean, Starlink reported over $630,000,000 of revenue from Starlink Mobile last year, and that slipped by the radar for a lot of people.

但如果他们想从这个基数继续增长，你提到T-Mobile的合同总共才1亿美元左右。

But if they're going to grow from that, you've reported that the T Mobile contract's only about $100,000,000 in total.

这份合同再过几个月就要到期续约了。

That contract's up for renewal in the next few months.

很多人以为这个合同会在七月续约，但Starlink要想今年实现移动业务收入增长，光靠一亿美元远远不够。

I think a lot of people think that's going to be renewed in July, but Starlink needs an awful lot more than $100,000,000 to report an increase in Starlink mobile revenues this year.

他们可能需要把合同金额至少扩大五倍，甚至十倍。

They probably need to increase the size of that contract by at least five times, maybe as much as 10 times.

T-Mobile那边却说，根本没人愿意为这个服务买单。

And T Mobile's out there saying, Well, no one wants to pay for it.

这在我们总流量里只占极小一部分。

It's a tiny proportion of our traffic.

显然，两家公司在付费问题上争得挺激烈，我觉得T-Mobile的意思是，他们正和AT&T、Verizon联手，防止Starlink绕开他们直接拉客户。

I mean, clearly that argument is going on pretty vehemently between the two companies about what they're going to pay, and I think T Mobile's arguing, you know, they're teaming up with AT and T and Verizon for that matter to avoid Starlink trying to go around them.

目前来看，T-Mobile很可能在这场博弈中占上风，毕竟Starlink也不太可能一拍两散，说‘算了，不干了’，直接关停服务。

I think that argument is probably going to be won by T Mobile at this point in time because Starlink doesn't want to just pick up its ball and go home and say, Yeah, sorry, we're turning off the service because we can't reach agreement on price.

这个合同什么时候到期续约？

And when does that contract come up for renewal?

他们曾在X上说过，这个合同是独家的，有效期一年，所以很多人以为今年七月就是续约时间，因为那正好是服务正式商用满十二个月的时候。

Well, has said on X that the contract is exclusive for twelve months, so I think a lot of people have assumed that that contract is due for renewal in July this year because that will be twelve months after they launch the service commercially.

我们没有确凿的证据，但大家普遍觉得他们今年想多报一些收入。

We don't know that for a fact, but I think the expectation is that they want to try and get more revenue to report this year.

所以今年夏天，他们会努力推动扩大这份合同的规模。

And so, they're going to push for an increase in the size of that contract this summer.

价格只是星链方案中的一个因素。

So price is one element of the Starlink equation.

另一个因素，当然是成本。

The other element, of course, is cost.

关于制造这些卫星、把它们送入轨道的成本，我们现在知道多少？

What do we know about the way the costs are trending to produce these satellites, get to these satellites up there.

我们稍后会聊星舰，因为最终我们得搞清楚这个问题。

We'll talk about Starship in a minute because ultimately that is what we'll need to work out here.

单从利润率来看，你做过哪些分析？

Just in terms of margins, what analysis have you done there?

是的。

Yeah.

也就是说，星链去年发射的每一颗卫星，超过三千颗，每颗的制造和入轨成本加起来大约是140万美元。

So, I mean, Starlink, know, every satellite it launched last year, which is over 3,000 of them, it costs them about $1,400,000 per satellite to build them and get them into orbit combined.

这个数字相比其他宽带通信服务商来说，低得惊人。

That's an amazingly low number compared to what you see for other providers of broadband communications.

这也充分说明星链领先了多少，以及像亚马逊这样的公司想追赶会有多难。

And it just illustrates how far ahead Starlink is and how difficult it will be for other people like Amazon to try and compete.

但归根结底，他们还得继续造更多卫星，增加容量，还得生产终端设备。

But at the end of the day, they have to build more satellites, they have to add more capacity, and they have to build the terminals.

去年看来，每个终端的生产成本大概在300美元左右。

And it looks like the terminals cost them something in the order of $300 each to produce last year.

他们对这些终端补贴得很厉害，所以最近涨价主要加了每月10美元的终端租赁费。

They're subsidizing those terminals pretty heavily, which why the latest price increases are focused on charging people $10 a month for a terminal rental fee.

这恰恰是他们最薄弱的一环。

And that is the area of biggest weakness.

人们都说，下一代卫星的容量会提升十倍。

People say you're gonna have 10 times more capacity with the next generation satellites.

用星舰发射，成本能低得多。

You're have them vastly cheaper to launch with Starship.

话是这么说，但问题没那么简单。

Yeah, all well and good.

但归根结底，拉来新客户时，你得送他们终端设备。

But at the end of the day, when you're acquiring these customers, you have to give them a terminal.

如果每个终端成本几百美元，还得自己贴钱，那你就很难去争取那些付费很低的用户。

And if that terminal is costing you several $100 and you're subsidizing that, it limits your ability to go after the really low ARPU customers.

如果他们最终能进入印度市场，那可就真有意思了——虽然现在还被推迟了。印度普通用户月付10美元就能用上宽带，你要是还送他们价值300美元的终端，根本撑不住。

It's going to be really interesting to see if they get into India eventually, and that obviously has just been delayed, but if they eventually get to India, where people pay maybe $10 a month for broadband typically as an entry level product, you can't afford to be giving away a $300 terminal to get those $10 a month customers.

没错。

Right.

那星舰这部分呢？咱们怎么看待它在整体中的作用？

Now, what about the Starship aspect of this equation?

再帮我们理一下星舰目前的进展、目标，以及你认为它什么时候能真正对星链业务产生影响。

Remind us here of the current roadmap for where Starship is, where it needs to get to, and then eventually when you think that will end up having an impact or could have an impact on the Starlink business.

是的，今年他们肯定会进一步推进星舰项目。

Yeah, so they're obviously going to progress further with Starship this year.

S1文件里提到，他们并不需要完全实现可重复使用，就能开始发射下一代星链卫星。

What it says in the S1 is that they don't need the full reusability in order to start launching these next generation of Starlink satellites.

这很好。

That's great.

这正好让他们能在完全实现回收之前，先行动起来。

That's exactly allowing them to get on and do this before they've fully made this reusable.

但每次发射都丢掉第二级火箭，成本肯定会高很多，也会限制你频繁发射的能力。

But obviously, it's a lot more expensive if you're going to be throwing away the second stage every time you do a launch, and it's going to limit your ability to launch really, really frequently.

所以今年晚些时候，他们肯定会尝试用星舰发射下一代星链卫星做些实验。

So, they'll definitely be trying to do some experiments with launching the next generation of Starlink satellites later this year.

到了明年，他们可能会逐步加大发射频率。

And into next year, they'll probably try and ramp that up.

但明年他们的重点，大概还是建设下一代星链移动星座，把刚从EchoStar买来的那200亿美元频谱资源用起来。

But their priority next year is probably going to be to build out the next generation, the Starlink mobile constellation, put that $20,000,000,000 of spectrum that they just acquired from EchoStar to use.

宽带系统可能要到2028年，甚至2029年，才能大量部署这些由星舰运送的卫星。

The broadband system probably comes beyond that into 2028 and possibly 2029 before they have a lot more of those satellites launched on Starship.

蒂姆，作为

Tim, as

你想想SpaceX可能需要收购哪些技术，他们一向不吝于收购，不只是在航天领域，其他方面也一样，我们都知道。

you think about the capabilities that SpaceX may have to acquire, it certainly has not been shy of acquisitions, not just in the space sphere, but otherwise, as we know.

在未来十二到十八个月内，你认为他们在发射业务和星链方面可能会收购哪些公司？

What acquisitions, specifically related to the launch business and Starlink, do you think you could see them making in the next twelve to eighteen months?

我觉得他们现在手头已经拥有了大部分所需的技术。

Well, I think that they've got an awful lot of the technology there that they need.

他们只需要把整个系统打磨完善，他们一直用这种迭代开发的方式，不断试错、炸掉很多东西，但最终却把技术推到了别人根本达不到的高度。

They just need to perfect the whole thing, they do this iterative development, which destroys a lot of things and blows a lot of stuff up, but at the end of the day, advances the technology way beyond what other people have achieved.

我觉得他们现在最大的问题，是发射场该怎么安排。

I think their biggest issue now is going to be what do they do about launch sites?

因为如果他们想发射这些轨道数据中心卫星，人人都说这些卫星得放在太阳同步轨道上。

Because if they want to be launching these orbital data center satellites, everyone talks about how those need to be in sun synchronous orbit.

换句话说，这些卫星始终处于阳光照射下，因为当一侧地球是日落时，另一侧正好是日出。

In other words, they are constantly in sunlight because they're at sunset on one side of the planet and at sunrise on the other side of the planet.

所以，他们需要新的发射方式。

And so, they're going to need new launch types.

从他们目前在德克萨斯或佛罗里达的星舰发射场，很难有效发射到那种轨道。

They can't launch to those orbit effectively from either Texas or Florida where they've got their current Starship launch pad.

所以我最关注的是，他们会怎么解决发射场的问题。

So, what I'm going be watching really closely is to see what they do about the launch pads.

现在有很多传言说他们在路易斯安那买地，那地方确实挺合适，因为南边是大片开阔海域，特别适合执行太阳同步轨道发射。

There's a lot of rumors about them buying land in Louisiana, and that's going to be a good place to do this because there's a lot of open sea to the south of that, which will be perfect for these sun synchronous orbit launches.

我觉得未来收购的重点，会放在扩建更多发射场上面。

I think that's where acquisitions are gonna come, is building out more launch sites in the future.

显然，这一切都需要投入大量资金，这会是个烧钱的生意。

Obviously, lots more money to be pumped into all of that, and it's going to be an expensive business.

现金消耗会非常大。

It's going to burn a lot of cash.

很好。

Great.

蒂姆，非常感谢你今天来做客。

Well, Tim, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是TMF Associates的总裁蒂姆·法拉尔，欢迎收看TI TV。

That is Tim Farrar, President of TMF Associates here on TI TV.

接下来，为了了解散户投资者对SpaceX登陆公开市场的看法，我们请来了汤姆·索斯诺夫。

Now, for more on what the retail investor is thinking as SpaceX hits the public markets, I want to bring on Tom Sosnov.

他是Tasty Trade的创始人，也是Lost Dog的首席执行官。

He is the founder of Tasty Trade and CEO of Lost Dog.

汤姆，欢迎来到TITV。

Tom, welcome to TITV.

很高兴你能来参加我们的节目。

It is so great to have you on the show.

我想先问问你关于散户配售的事。

I want to start by asking you about the retail allocation.

我们都知道，散户实际拿到的份额比他们最初预期的要少一些。

So we know that it looks like retail investors have gotten a smaller proportion than what they initially thought they were gonna be allotted.

你怎么看这件事？

What did you make of that?

说实话，这不太好说。

You know, it's hard to say.

其实我现在自己也是个散户投资者。

So I'm I'm in I'm a retail investor now too.

我自己也申请了，结果还挺意外的。

And so I put in myself, and I got, I was surprised actually.

我拿到的比预想的还要多一点。

I got a little more than I thought I would get.

大家通常都会申请多一点，抱点希望嘛。

You know, we all every we always put in for more and, you know, hope for something.

反正我最后还是拿到一些了。

And so I got some.

说实话，我真不太好说。

You know, so I I I it's hard for me to say.

我聊过的大多数朋友都拿到了一些。

Most of my friends that I talked to got something.

通常来说，根本拿不到。

Well, usually, get nothing.

所以我们这次拿到了一些。

So we got something.

我觉得，这比平时好多了。

So I'd say it's better than usual, I guess.

也许再提醒一下，TastyTrade 的那些‘走丢的狗’。

And maybe just remind us, tastytrade lost dog dogs.

我是说，那些是‘走丢的狗’。

These are lost dog, I should say.

抱歉，我表达得不够清楚。

My apologies.

你先给我们讲讲这些公司的基本理念吧。

Just walk us through the the the premise of the businesses first.

我其实打造了两个平台，第一个是Thinkorswim，现在它已经是嘉信理财的主要交易平台了。

Well, I I built two I built actually, Thinkorswim was my first retail platform, which is now owned it's now Schwab's primary platform.

后来我们被TD Ameritrade收购了。

We were bought out by TD Ameritrade.

所以我开发的Thinkorswim至今还在运行。

And so I built Thinkorswim, which it still exists today.

它已经是全球最大的交易平台之一了。

It's one of the biggest trading platforms in the world.

之后我又创办了Tastytrade，后来被伦敦的IG集团收购了。

And then I built Tastytrade, and that was bought out and by IG Group in London.

然后我就离开去创办了Lost Dog，它不是券商平台，而是帮你优化职业发展和投资组合的工具。

And I just left to go build Lost Dog, which is not a brokerage platform, but it optimizes your career and your portfolio type stuff.

这是一款挺酷的软件，我们目前正在逐步上线和推广。

So it's it's just a cool piece of software, and we're in the process of rolling it out and launching it.

我做了四十五年的做市商，还开发了经纪软件，之后才花了七个月做Lost Dog。

So I had forty five years as a market maker and building brokerage software, and then seven months building Lost Dog.

明白了。

Okay.

那你能不能说说，你是怎么衡量散户情绪的？

So talk to me a little bit about how you then measure retail sentiment.

这次IPO的主流说法是，有一大群埃隆的粉丝想进场。

I mean, the narrative of this IPO has been, you've a bunch of Elon fans out there.

他们特别想参与进来。

They want to get in on it.

所以这次给散户的配额比大多数IPO都要大。

That's why the retail allocation was bigger than than most IPOs.

但你是怎么实际量化这种情绪的呢？

But, I mean, how how do you even quantify that?

你觉得这种情绪对股价会有什么实际影响吗？

How do you think about what impact that tactically has on the stock price, if at all?

我早就不再觉得埃隆是个好人了。

Well, I I am long past believing Elon is just a great guy.

明白吧？

Okay?

他根本不在我们所谓的‘好亿万富翁’名单上。

He's not he's not on my what we call good billionaire list.

说实话，我并不喜欢他。

I I'm I'm actually not a fan.

但话说回来，他确实做得非常出色，通过大力宣传向散户投资者分配股份，为这次IPO带来了海量的媒体关注。

But that said, I I think he did a brilliant job by talking about the distribution to retail investors of getting an enormous amount of press and PR from this, you know, from this IPO.

要说谁把IPO的公关宣传做到了极致，我觉得非他莫属，堪称教科书级别。

So I think as far as like, a master class in in getting, you know, probably the best press that any IPO has ever got, I I would say this is it.

我知道这是规模最大的IPO，但我觉得这简直就是免费公关的典范。

And I know it's the largest IPO too, but I think that this has truly been a master class in in free PR.

而且说实话，这本来就应该这样。

And and and listen, that's that's kind of what it should be.

你知道，做IPO的时候，不该只让那些大机构投资者来抢购。

You know, when you do an IPO, it should not go to, you know, all the big institutional investors and things like that.

应该让普通消费者参与进来，因为他们平时根本没机会参与。

It should go to the it should go to the consumer because the consumer cannot participate along the way.

你得是合格投资者才行。

I mean, you have to be an accredited investor.

在IPO之前参与的话，你得把大部分收益都让出去。

You have to give away a lot of your upside if you participate prior to the IPO.

还得把股票锁六个月，一堆别的限制。

And then you have to hold on to the stock for six months and all this other stuff.

所以普通投资者只能等到IPO才买得上，可他们不该为一个被抬高的IPO价格买单。

So the retail investor really doesn't get to participate until the IPO, and they shouldn't have to pay, you know, some marked up, you know, IPO price.

我更希望他们能按原始价格参与。

I'd rather see them participate on the actual price.

对。

Right.

所以，你能不能给我详细说说这个过程？

So, I I mean, just walk me through this.

你之前说过，你买了一些SpaceX的股票。

And you you you said you you did buy some amount of SpaceX shares.

你你

You you

我分到了一些。

I was allocated some.

对。

Yes.

是分配给你的。

You allocated.

明白了。

Okay.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Right.

请原谅我这里。

And forgive me here.

是我来分配的。

I allocate it.

这不意味着你们是按IPO价格购买的吗？

Does that not mean you you like, are you do you not purchase it at the IPO price?

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

你们会去买它。

You purchase it.

你们是按某个价格买入的。

You purchase the out you purchase it at a price.

它还没上市呢。

It hasn't it hasn't it's not live yet.

就这么简单。

That's all.

所以，没错，就是这样。

So it's like Right.

你明白吧。

You know?

不过，我确实在几家不同的金融机构有关系，不光是我们自己的。

But, yes, I I I have relationship at, you know, a couple different, financial firms include aside from our own.

我就只是去问了一下配额，事情就解决了。

And, you know, I just asked for an allocation and that was it.

有一家机构回复说，好吧，我们可以给你一小部分配额。

And one firm came back and said, okay, we'll give you a small allocation.

明白了。

Okay.

但你会按那个配额价格买入吗？

But you you will you intend to buy it at that price that you were allocating?

是的，我会买。

Oh, I yeah.

对，我肯定会买。

I yeah.

我肯定会按那个价格买入，一开盘就卖出去。

I'm to absolutely buy at that price, and I'm gonna sell it the minute it opens.

也许吧。

May maybe.

我刚才的问题是，你有没有持有过任何份额？没有。

Well, that and that was my question was, was are you at all is any part of you a holder at all of the No.

不是，我不是。

No, it's not.

我真的不是。

I'm not.

我不买的原因是，就像我说的，我觉得SpaceX跟其他任何公司都不一样，它有两个我很不喜欢的特点。

And the reason I'm not is because, like I said, I think this is I think SpaceX more than any other company I've ever seen has two things that I don't like.

就是马斯克效应，说白了，这完全是他一个人的舞台。

It's the Elon Musk effect, which is basically, you know, this is his show.

根本就没有别人参与。

There there's there's nobody else involved.

正因为这样，这里存在一个巨大的单一故障点。

And there's a huge single point of failure here for that reason.

而且我也不喜欢这种模式。

I and I'm not a fan.

所以呢

So so

因为，我们到底怎么了？

Because because what we what?

为什么？

Why?

首先，这听起来有点荒唐，但他真造了辆赛博卡车，我觉得没人该开这种车。

Well, one, it's kind of a joke, but he did build a cyber truck, which I don't think anybody should ever have to have to drive.

但我真正不看好他的原因在于，你要是世界首富，就不该带头让27万公务员丢掉饭碗。

But the real reason I'm not a fan is that when you're the world's richest person, I don't think you should take the initiative, to cost 270,000 civil servants their their their livelihood.

自从Doge事件一发生，我就一直很介意，这事我永远没法原谅他。

And that has bothered me ever since the start of Doge, and I cannot forgive him for that.

你知道吗，我其实是最早开特斯拉的人之一。

So, you know, like, I drove I was one of the first, people that drove a Tesla.

我是从第一天起就完全接受它了。

I mean, I I I embraced it for from day one.

从2014年开始，我就拥有了三辆特斯拉。

I think I had three Teslas from, like, 2014 on.

他这么做的时候，我就把车卖了，干脆送人了，根本不在乎，转头买了辆Lucid。

And when he did that, I just, you know, I sold my car at the market and basically gave it away, and I didn't care and bought a Lucid.

我不可能支持那些我根本不尊重的人。

You know, I I'm not gonna support people who I don't have any respect for.

所以我对投资他一点兴趣都没有。

And and so I'm not interested in investing in him.

但我得说，我是个期权交易员。

But I will tell you, I'm an option trader.

下周我会把这只股票和它的期权炒得翻天覆地，机会多得是，我会布局很多仓位，但我不会只是单纯做多。

I'll trade I'll trade the crap out of the stock next week, you know, stock and options because if it's gonna be there'll be tons of opportunity in there, and I'm gonna put on lots of positions, and but I'm not gonna be just a net long delta buyer.

我不会只是买股票。

I'm not just gonna buy stock.

我同事科里·温伯格这周发了一篇文章，讲纳斯达克是怎么拿下上市资格的。

Now my colleague Corey Weinberg, he had a story out this week looking at how Nasdaq won listing or how they secured the listing.

他提到一点，纳斯达克说他们会加快企业被纳入指数的进程。

One of the things he pointed out, of course, was that Nasdaq said that they will accelerate the ability to be included in the index.

标普还没有。

S and P has not.

他做了一段挺有意思的报道，还联系了一家专门分析社交媒体和网络情绪的数据公司。

He had an interesting bit of reporting that he actually talked to a data provider that assesses sentiment online, on social media and stuff like that.

这家服务商发现，很多人对纳斯达克宣布要加速把某公司纳入指数这件事并不买账。

Basically what the service found is that people are not thrilled about the fact that Nasdaq said that they are going to fast track the ability to be included in the index.

你觉得这件事该不该发生？

What is your view on whether or not that should or shouldn't happen?

我能理解特斯拉的情况，抱歉。

I can understand why Tesla I'm sorry.

我能理解马斯克为什么利用他的影响力去推动这件事，毕竟在他看来，他得为SpaceX争取最好的利益。

Can understand why Elon, used the leverage that he has to do that because from his perspective, you know, he's got to fight for what's best for, SpaceX.

我觉得，他们能越早被纳入纳斯达克指数，对SpaceX就越有利——这样一来，所有指数基金和被动型基金都得调整持仓，去买SpaceX的股票。

And I think in this case, the quicker that they get the quicker that they get added to the Nasdaq, I mean, obviously, that forces all the index funds and all the passive index funds to have to rebalance their portfolios into you know, to buy SpaceX.

越快越好。

And the sooner, the better.

从他的角度看，这个问题对我来说确实很难，因为我并不喜欢纳斯达克这么轻易让步。

So from his perspective, I think this is a hard one for me because I don't like the fact that the Nasdaq caved.

但另一方面，我真正反感的原因是，第一，这会大大增加投资组合的集中风险。

The other side of it is that the real reason I don't like it is that, a, it adds a lot of concentration risk to the offering.

第二，我觉得这会迫使401(k)计划和被动指数基金不得不买入，短期内可能人为推高股价。

And and, b, I think that it forces four zero one k's and it forces passive index fund holders to maybe buying to maybe forcing the stock artificially higher in the short term.

我觉得吧，听我说。

And I think you know, listen.

时间会证明一切，但我很讨厌他们必须在接下来几周内被迫买入，而不是让股价自然波动，等它自己找到合理位置后再考虑纳入指数。

Time will tell, but I hate the fact that they have to that they're gonna be forced to buy in the first, you know, whatever in this couple of weeks as opposed to letting the stock kind of find its own level and then maybe, you know, and then maybe be added to the index.

没错。

Right.

汤姆，当我们谈到散户配售时，你说你现在也是散户投资者，还刚提到一有机会就打算卖出。

Tom, when we hear about the retail allocation, and like you said, you are a retail investor now, and you just indicated to us that you're planning to sell the minute you get a chance.

我觉得，至少我们在这档节目里一直把所有散户投资者都当成一大群马斯克的铁粉，主要是因为他们在网上和社交媒体上太吵了。

I think, at least the way we've talked about on the show, we've sort of equated all retail investors to be this giant group that are fans of Elon Musk, mostly because they're so loud online and they're loud on social media.

当你思考这群散户投资者时，我觉得实际情况并非如此。

As you think about this group of retail investors, I mean, strikes me that that's not the case.

我想知道，你有没有一个大致的概念，这群散户中有多少是支持马斯克的，又有多少不支持？

And I wonder if you have a sense for, you know, what what proportion of this group of retail investors support or don't support Elon?

我的意思是，这个比例到底是多少呢？

Like, what what is the

我觉得根本不是这么回事。

I I don't think it's I don't I don't think it's the case at all.

事实上，我长期生活在散户投资者的圈子里。

In fact, I think retail so I live in the retail investor space.

我亲自创办了两三家公司，我们根本不开设机构账户。

I mean, I literally have built, you know, two two or three companies and all we we don't even take institutional accounts.

我们完全是面向散户的。

It's a 100% retail.

散户投资者其实非常聪明，也极具专业素养。

Retail investors are really smart and they are highly sophisticated investors.

和一般人想的不一样，这些散户投资者在很多方面其实远远领先于机构投资者。

Contrary to what people think, they are light years ahead of institutional investors from just a different perspective.

我觉得散户投资者特别善于抓住机会。

And I would argue that retail investors are opportunistic.

这根本不是什么立场问题，我就拿我自己和我认识的朋友来说吧。

This is not a question of and especially like I I just can speak for myself and my own friends and people I know.

我们参与这个投资，不是因为觉得埃隆这个人有多了不起，想投他个人。

This is not a question of us wanting to participate in the offering because we think Elon we wanna invest in Elon.

这纯粹是我们看到的一个机会而已。

This is a this is just what we see as an opportunity.

散户平时很难参与IPO，这次正好有个机会。

Retail investors don't always get an opportunity to participate in an IPO, and here's an opportunity.

我觉得下周期权一上线，这只股票肯定会剧烈波动，特别有意思，机会也很多。

And I also think that next week when they launch options, this is gonna be, you know, a very volatile, very interesting, and really opportunistic stock.

而且我觉得交易会非常活跃，我一点都不意外，它可能会成为今年交易量最大的股票。

And I think it's gonna be actively traded, you know, for it wouldn't surprise me if this becomes the most actively traded stock for the rest of the year.