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欢迎各位收看Information的TI电视。
Welcome everyone to the Information's TI TV.
我叫阿卡什·佩斯里特沙。
My name is Akash Pesritsha.
今天是1月5日，星期一。
It is Monday, January 5.
新年快乐！
Happy New Year to you.
希望你们度过了一个愉快的假期。
Hope you had a great holiday.
我们为大家准备了一场精彩的节目来开启新的一年。
We have got a great show to kick off the new year.
首先，我们要聊聊CES。
First up, we are talking CES.
消费电子展今天在拉斯维加斯开幕。
The Consumer Electronics Show opens today in Las Vegas.
我们还将讨论英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋可能会关注的内容。
We'll also discuss what NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is likely to focus on.
接着，我们将深入探讨人工智能的采用问题，邀请一位专家帮助公司判断该购买哪些人工智能工具，以及应支付多少费用。
We'll then dig into AI adoption with an expert who helps companies navigate which AI tools to buy and how much they should actually pay for them.
接下来，我们邀请了节目的老朋友、Slow Ventures的普通合伙人萨姆·莱森，与我们分享他对2026年的预测。
Next up, we've got friend of the show and Slow Ventures general partner, Sam Lesson joining us to share his predictions for 2026.
最后，我们将审视ChatGPT的用户基础，以及OpenAI为实现其雄心勃勃的收入目标需要拓展的方向。
And we will wrap with a look at ChatGPT's user base and where OpenAI needs to expand as it looks to achieve its ambitious revenue goals.
这是一期内容丰富的节目，让我们马上进入正题。
It is a big show, and so let's get right on into things.
消费电子展（CES）今天开幕，英伟达的黄仁勋将出席。
CES, the Consumer Electronics Show, kicks off today, and NVIDIA's Jensen Huang will be there.
他的一大重点将是展示英伟达的芯片和软件如何应用于制造业和机器人领域。
One of his big focuses will be showing how NVIDIA's chips and software can be used in manufacturing and robotics.
我的同事韦恩·马发表了一篇深度报道，揭秘了这一产品线，以及黄仁勋近期为何对其增长感到沮丧。
My colleague Wayne Ma published an inside look at that product line and why Jensen has been frustrated with its growth lately.
我想请韦恩来聊聊他的报道。
I wanna bring on Wayne to talk all about his reporting.
韦恩，欢迎再次做客节目。
Wayne, welcome back to the show.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
谢谢你邀请我，阿卡什。
Thanks for having me, Akash.
也祝你新年快乐。
Happy New Year to you as well.
所以是CES。
So CES.
我从来没去过CES。
I've never been to CES.
你去过好几次了吧？
You you've been a couple times?
嗯。
Yeah.
我去年去过。
I I I was there last year.
好的。
Okay.
对于那些没去过的人，你能给我们讲讲那里的氛围吗？
For those of for those of us who haven't been, I mean, you know, tell us a little bit about the vibe.
今年人们都在谈论什么？
What are people talking about this year?
嗯。
Yeah.
这就像消费电子公司一年一度的朝圣之旅。
I mean, it's like a kind of like the annual, pilgrimage of consumer electronics companies.
但过去几年，它已经演变成不仅仅是手机之类的电子产品，还包括自动驾驶汽车、机器人、AR、VR，当然还有人工智能。
But, you know, the last few years, it's it's evolved into, like, more than just, you know, gadgets, you know, like your phone, but, you know, automated cars, you know, robotics, AR, VR, and now, of course, AI.
所以
And so
而这里的这些产品，我的意思是，我总是会想到CES上推出的东西。
and the the products here, I mean, you know, I I always seem to think about what comes out of CES.
这些产品，我的意思是，有些情况下，它们可能还要好几年才能问世。
These products, I mean, these like, in some cases, they're still, like, years away.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，从来都不是那些现在正在大规模推广的东西，或者说，他们最终会披露些什么呢？
I mean, it's never the stuff that is actually scaling now, or, I mean, what what do they end up revealing?
其实很混杂。
It's really mixed.
对吧？
Right?
有些东西可能是空谈，比如有人宣布一些声称一年或两年后会推出的设备，但最终却从未面世。
Like, some of it can be vaporware, you know, people announcing gadgets that they claim will come out in a year or two's time, but then never come out.
其他一些东西很快就要发布了。
Other things are, you know, coming out soon.
所以我觉得这可以说是好坏参半。
So I guess it's kind of like a mixed bag.
从你参加过的这么多年来看，你有没有特别记得的、让你惊呼‘天啊’的CES记忆？
And from all the years that you've gone, do do you remember do you have a particular memory from CES that, that comes to mind as like, oh my god.
那真是典型的CES。
That was so CES.
哦，我觉得是那些派对。
Oh, I mean, I think the the parties.
你知道，有各种奢华的派对。
You know, there's all these, like, lavish parties.
比如Instagram举办派对。
Like, Instagram hosts a party.
TikTok也举办派对。
TikTok hosts a party.
而且这些活动基本上充满了营销，公司们都在努力讨好你。
And they're basically it's, like, very there's, like, lots of marketing, basically, and companies trying to, like, get on your good side.
你知道，TikTok 就在努力表明自己不是一家中国公司，比如。
You know, TikTok definitely trying to push that they're not like a Chinese company, for example.
所以，是的，我记得有很多派对，非常多。
So, yeah, there's just lots of I remember lots of a lot of the parties.
你知道的？
You know?
对。
Right.
好的。
Okay.
好吧。
Well, okay.
我们来聊聊今年实地发生的事情吧。
Let's talk about what's happening on the ground this year.
我的意思是，你今天发布了一篇关于英伟达推动专注于制造的公司采用其芯片和软件的文章。
I mean, you had this story out today about NVIDIA's push to get companies who are focused on manufacturing to adopt not just their chips, but also their software.
谈谈这条业务线，为什么这对英伟达如此重要，然后我们再聊聊进展如何。
Talk a little bit about this business line and why this is such a big focus for NVIDIA, and then we'll talk about how it's going in a second.
当然。
Sure.
我的意思是，英伟达通过销售用于训练和推理的芯片，每年赚取数十亿美元。
I mean, obviously, NVIDIA makes billions of dollars selling chips for training and also chips for inference.
你可以把它想象成一台机器人的电脑。
So you could think of it as, like, a a computer for a robot.
你知道，机器人需要一台电脑来训练它的‘思维’。
You know, a robot needs a computer to train its mind.
人们正在为这个目的购买芯片。
People are buying chips for that.
机器人还需要一台电脑来运行自身。
A robot needs a computer to run-in itself.
NVIDIA 也为这种用途销售芯片。
NVIDIA sells the chips for that as well.
但为了在环境中模拟机器人并收集数据来训练机器人的动作等，需要另一台计算机。
But to simulate the robot, in an environment and collect data on that, to, like, to train the robots, like, movements and things like that requires, like, a third another computer.
但人们似乎并不购买这种类型的计算机，也不购买用于此目的的 NVIDIA 芯片。
And people don't seem to be buying that type of computer or buying NVIDIA chips for that.
詹森·黄长期以来一直认为，这是他们业务的第三大支柱，他们也能从中赚取数十亿美元，但这种情况就是没有发生。
And and Jensen Huang has long believed that that's, like, the third pillar of their business where they could also make, you know, billions of dollars, but it's just not happening.
你在报道中提到了数字孪生这个概念。
And so you talked about this idea of a digital twin in the story.
所以帮我理解一下，这种模拟具体是什么样子，它在模拟什么。
So help me understand what exactly this simulation looks like and what it's emulating.
是的。
Yeah.
数字孪生就像是在模拟一个机器人。
So a digital twin is kind of like, say, you're simulating a robot.
你在数字世界中构建机器人。
You build the robot in a digital world.
构建这个数字世界本身，然后在其中运行机器人并收集数据，以帮助改进它的移动方式和思维方式。
Build the digital world itself, and then you would, like, run the robot in that world and collect data on it to kinda help improve, like, how it moves and how it thinks.
因此，这本质上是你试图制造或构建的物理对象的数字版本。
And so it's essentially like a digital version of the physical object that you are trying to make or build.
所以这就像是将机器人或机器的数字版本放入某种元宇宙般的现实中，以模拟可能发生的情况。
So it's it's like putting, like, a digital version of the of the robot or the machine in sort of a, like, a metaverse like reality to emulate what could happen, essentially.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
因此，英伟达一直在推动工具，不仅用于构建这些三维对象，还用于模拟它们。
And so NVIDIA has been pushing tools to not just build these, like, three d objects, but also to simulate them.
因此，詹森认为，世界上每个人都需要数字孪生，包括你自己。
And so and and Jensen believes that everyone in the world will need the digital twin, including yourself.
你知道，你需要一个属于自己的数字孪生，当然还需要购买一块NVIDIA芯片来运行它。
You know, you'll need your own, and, of course, you'll need to buy an NVIDIA chip to run that digital twin.
所以每个人都会拥有自己的GPU和自己的数字孪生。
So everyone will have their own GPU, their own digital twin.
这就是他对未来的愿景。
That's like his vision for the future.
这是他的长期愿景。
That's his long term vision.
所以他一直在为此努力。
So he's been working toward that.
因此，他们在2021年推出了Omniverse，这个类似部门或产品的产品。
And so they announced, Omniverse, this, kind of division or product, in like 2021.
你可以下载软件到你的电脑上，并在电脑上的NVIDIA芯片上运行它。
And, you know, you can, like, download the software for your computer and run it on NVIDIA chip on your computer.
但你也可以租赁，或者购买并租用云中的数千块NVIDIA GPU。
But you can also lease, you know, or buy and rent, you know, thousands of NVIDIA GPUs in the cloud.
所以我的故事基本上讲的是人们并没有做后者。
And so my story basically kind of talks about how people aren't doing the latter.
对吧？
Right?
他们并没有在云端使用大规模模拟。
They're not using large scale simulation in the cloud.
为什么呢？
Why not?
我想，原因有很多。
I guess, like, there's a lot of reasons.
一个是，内部存在一些问题。
One is, internally, there's issues.
这家公司本身在为这个部门开发软件方面遇到了困难。
The company itself, has had trouble executing, building software for that division.
多年来，他们制作了许多炫目的演示，展示给詹森看，试图给他留下深刻印象。
They've built lots of flashy demos over the years that they've shown to Jensen to try to impress him.
但从2023年底到2024年初，Jensen开始感到沮丧，因为他看到了这些出色的演示，但没有一个真正转化为实际产品。
But, starting around '20 late twenty twenty three, early twenty twenty four, Jensen was starting to get frustrated because he saw these great demos, but none of them actually turned into real products.
他觉得工程时间被浪费在这些演示上，他们至少应该聚焦并选择一个方向，真正推出并交付产品。
And he felt that engineering time was being wasted on these demos, that they had to like, they should focus at least and pick at least one thing, to actually ship and deliver.
而当时他们并没有这样做。
And they weren't doing that at that time.
这些产品和工具真的有市场吗？还是这只是英伟达在寻找更多增长方式，你觉得呢？
Is there actually a market here for these products and tools, or is this really just NVIDIA looking for more ways to grow, do you think?
Jensen相信，尤其是随着AI需求的爆炸式增长，未来肯定存在这样一个市场——如果你要让大量机器人行走或自动驾驶汽车遍布各地，显然你需要模拟它们的行为。
Well, Jensen believes, especially with the explosion in demand for AI, that there definitely is a market that eventually, if you're gonna have lots of robots walking around or autonomous cars driving everywhere, that, obviously you need to kind of simulate what they do.
你不能直接把它们放到现实世界中去收集数据，对吧？
You can't just put them on the physical world and collect so that's the other way, right?
你可以直接在现实世界中运行它们并收集数据。
You can just run them in the physical world and collect data for that.
但这很昂贵。
That's expensive.
对吧？
Right?
你得先把产品做出来。
You have to build the product first.
你得在真实世界中运行它，尤其是在自动驾驶领域。
You have to run it in the real world, especially with autonomous driving.
你知道，汽车可能会撞到人，诸如此类的事情。
You know, cars, you know, could hit people, things like that.
所以，如果你只是在模拟中运行成千上万次、甚至数百万次，并以此收集数据，那就更安全、更便宜。
So if you just run them in simulations like thousands of times, millions of times, and collect the data that way, it's safer and cheaper.
但到目前为止，有哪些客户接受了这种使用模拟的想法呢？
But it it who who are the customers that that have bought into this idea of you of using these simulations so far?
嗯，很多人确实使用模拟。
Well, lots of people do use simulations.
只是他们没有使用英伟达的产品。
It's just they don't use NVIDIA's products.
对吧？
Right?
所以特斯拉正在路上模拟他们的汽车，还有他们的类人机器人Optimus。
So Tesla's simulating their cars, right, on the on the road and Optimus, their robots their humanoid robot as well.
但他们没有使用NVIDIA的工具。
But but they don't use NVIDIA's tools.
对吧？
Right?
哦，所以他们没有使用NVIDIA的芯片。
Oh, so they don't use NVIDIA's chips.
所以在某些情况下，实际上竞争对手的产品反而更适合这类应用。
So and and so in in some cases, it's actually that that competitors' products actually work better for for this stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
或者他们自己内部开发，因为他们觉得NVIDIA的解决方案并不适合他们。
Or they build their own in house because they don't feel like NVIDIA's solution is, you know, you know, right for them.
对吧？
Right?
所以这和训练与推理非常不同，在训练和推理中，每个人都使用英伟达的芯片。
So it's like very different than training and training and inference where everybody uses NVIDIA chips.
英伟达在这一点上是事实上的标准，没人愿意用别人的设备。
NVIDIA is like the de facto standard for that, and nobody wants to use anyone else's stuff.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为这对这个部门和这项业务来说是个巨大的挑战。
And so I think that's the big struggle for this division and for this business.
作为报道英伟达的记者，你接触了这个生态系统中的每个人。
And so as as our reporter covering NVIDIA, you talk to everybody in this ecosystem.
我的意思是，展望一两年后，你认为这会成为英伟达的一个主要业务线吗？还是说它仍然只是缓慢发展？
I mean, you know, looking ahead a year or two out, do you see this being a major business line for NVIDIA, or do you think it's kind of just puttering along still?
我认为一两年后可能还是太早了。
I think one or two years out might still be too early.
也许五年后，十年后就肯定了。
Maybe five years out, ten years out for sure.
但同样，市场必须成熟起来。
But as again, like, market has to mature.
我们今天家里还没有像智能手机那样普及的人形机器人，对吧？每个人口袋里都有智能手机。
We don't have, like, humanoid robots in our homes today like we do with a smartphone, right, in everybody's pocket.
所以，我认为必须达到这样一个阶段：每个人都购买人形机器人或某种家用机器人。
And so, like, I think it has to get to that point where everybody's buying, a humanoid robot or some robot for their home.
然后，当然，模拟和三维设计工具的市场就会腾飞。
And then, of course, that you know, this market for simulation and three d design tools will take off.
对。
Right.
好的。
Alright.
嗯，有一个
Well, there's a
这里面有很多值得期待的地方，所以非常感谢你前来做客。
lot to look forward to in there, so I wanna thank you for coming on.
韦恩，他是我们在《信息》杂志的英伟达记者韦恩·马。
Wayne, that is Wayne Ma, our NVIDIA reporter here at The Information.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
好的。
Okay.
我们的下一位嘉宾能从一线视角观察企业中人工智能的采用情况。
Our next guest has a ground view of how AI adoption at enterprises is looking on the ground.
亚当·曼斯菲尔德是Upper Edge的实践主管，该公司帮助企业在与Salesforce和ServiceNow等企业软件公司谈判大型合同时争取利益。
Adam Mansfield is practice lead at Upper Edge, which helps businesses negotiate big contracts with enterprise software companies like Salesforce and ServiceNow.
我想邀请亚当来帮助我们了解软件在进入新的一年时的现状。
I want to bring on Adam to help us understand the current state of play of software heading into the new year.
亚当，欢迎再次来到节目。
Adam, welcome back to the show.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
很高兴来到这里，阿卡什。
It's good to be here, Akash.
总是很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
我的团队告诉我，由于今天是1月5日，这是我能说‘新年快乐’的最后一天，之后就不允许再说了。
I was told by my team that this is the only day that I can say Happy New Year, given that it's January 5, that I'm not allowed to say it afterwards.
所以我得好好利用这最后的机会。
So I'm milking it everything that it's worth.
好吧，我懂，我懂。
All right, hey, I get it, I get it.
我们公司也有类似的限制，所以我理解。
I have similar restrictions in my company, so I understand.
好吧，我们来谈谈企业软件。
Okay, so look, let's talk about enterprise software.
我们在2025年经历了一个疯狂的年份，现在要进入新的一年了。
We had a crazy year in 2025, we're going into the new year.
我想先听听你的看法，你帮助客户谈判的主要三家公司的微软、ServiceNow和Salesforce。
I want to understand a little bit from you first, the three of the main companies that you help your clients negotiate deals with are Microsoft, ServiceNow, and Salesforce.
我们对这三家公司做了大量报道。
We've done a lot of reporting on all three of these companies.
我想了解的是，这三家公司是如何在市场中推销它们的AI服务的，这反映了它们在某些方面存在多大程度的重叠，或者在促使人们购买这些产品时，市场有多混乱。
I want to understand from you how these three companies pitch their AI services differently in the market and what that kind of tells us about just how overlapping some things are in some cases or just how Wild West it is in terms of trying to get people to actually buy these products.
是的，这很有趣，对吧？
Yeah, it's interesting, right?
我可以从几个角度来分析这个问题。
So there's a couple of ways I would look at this.
首先，你得考虑一下你刚才提到的这些供应商：微软、Salesforce和ServiceNow，对吧？
Number one, you have to think about these vendors, the vendors you just spoke to about, Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow, right?
我们先从微软开始。
So we start with Microsoft.
微软对市场的基础策略始终如一。
Microsoft's foundational approach to the market is always the same.
我们是微软，已经拥有一批客户，因此他们采取的是单一微软的策略，对吧？
We are Microsoft, we already have a base of customers, so they come in with a one Microsoft approach, Right?
我们在投资，我们是AI领域的领导者，你们自然应该跟随我们走这条路。
So we're investing, we're AI leaders, you should naturally come and follow us down this path.
这就是他们的思维方式。
That's kind of the mindset.
但问题在于，这里有很多相关报道，不只是我的个人见解，他们并没有能很好地扩大这种模式。
The problem is, and there's a lot of reporting out here on this, not just from my own insights, you know, they haven't been able to scale that as much.
明白吗？
Okay?
因此，他们开始采取一些新的做法，这很有趣，他们逐渐开始摆脱以人力为基础的模式。
So what they've started to do, and this is interesting, they started to kind of transition a little bit away from kind of a headcount base.
所以Copilot是Microsoft 365订阅的附加功能。
So Copilot, which is an add on to your Microsoft three sixty five subscription.
Copilot的官方定价是每位用户每月30美元。
Copilot, dollars 30 per user per month, it's their list price.
他们在加速推广方面遇到了一些停滞。
They're having a little bit of stalling on the acceleration.
不过，他们现在也在推广其他基于使用量的产品。
Now though, there's other consumption based products that they've been pushing.
比如Copilot Studio。
Okay, so things like Copilot Studio.
这并不是按员工人数计费的。
That's not headcount based.
它是基于消息数量来构建Microsoft 365之外的智能代理的。
That is how to build agents outside of Microsoft three sixty five that essentially is based upon a number of messages.
所以每月200美元可获得25,000次Copilot调用，这就是它的计费方式。
So $200 per month for 25,000 copilot, and that's how this runs.
因此，他们已经开始营造出AI厂商常见的飞轮效应。
So they've started to create that flywheel effect that you typically see in AI vendors.
飞轮效应变得至关重要，因为市场正是通过这种方式来看待与AI相关的收入增长加速。
The flywheel effect becomes really important because that is how the market's looking at things to accelerate revenue growth tied to AI.
所以微软已经开始向这一方向转型，明白了么？
So Microsoft has started to transition there with that, okay?
我还想说，这是一个非常重要的点：Microsoft 365 E5，这是一套他们一直试图推向市场的基础产品套件，此前他们并未达到预期目标，但现在他们已将名为Security Copilot的功能纳入E5中。
I would also say, and this is a really big one, Microsoft three sixty five E5, which is a foundational suite of products that they've also been trying to push onto the market, they've been, haven't really gotten to where they wanted to go, they have now included something called security copilot as part of E5.
这部分举措部分是为了合理化即将到来的7月1日价格上调。
Now part of that's to justify the July 1 price increases that are coming.
但真正特别有趣的是，这是一种混合模式。
But the thing that's really, really interesting here is somewhat of a hybrid.
因此，你仍然拥有基于员工人数计费的Microsoft 365 E5产品版本，但其中现在包含了若干Security Copilot，即安全方面的
So you still have the Microsoft three sixty five E5 SKU, which is headcount based, But within it, you now get a number of security Copilot, which is the security
所以你实际上获得了更多内容。
So you you get more you get more in there, essentially.
没错，正是如此。
Essence exactly.
但这里有个关键点，阿卡什。
But here's the hook, though, Akash.
这非常重要。
It's really important.
那些SCUs，你只能获得这么多。
Those c those SCUs, you only get so many.
如果你用完了，猜猜会怎样？
And if you don't, if you blow through them, guess what?
你就得额外付钱给他们。
You owe them more money.
所以他们现在处于
So they're now in
一种混合模式，这对客户来说非常成问题。
a hybrid, which becomes very problematic for customers.
但你在这里谈到的这种基于消耗和基于使用的定价模式，对于ServiceNow来说是普遍适用的，也许Salesforce也是如此，对吧？
But this consumption based pricing and usage based pricing that you talk about here, I mean, this is uniform throughout for ServiceNow and maybe in Salesforce, right?
没错。
Exactly.
这正是我想说的。
So that's where I'm going.
就是这样。
It's exactly.
因此，微软主要率先推出了Copilot，这是对人员基数的附加功能。
So Microsoft led with, for the most part, led with Copilot, which is an add on to the headcount base.
现在他们开始稍微混合一下了。
And now they're starting to mix it a little bit.
Salesforce一上来就是基于消耗、飞轮式的定价，对吧？
Salesforce, right out of the gate, consumption based, flywheel based, right?
这包括代理力量和数据云，他们总是把这两者作为一个整体来推广。
Which is agent force as well as data cloud, which they always push together as one thing.
好吧？
Okay?
代理力量最初是每次对话2美元。
Agent force originally was $2 per conversation.
市场不喜欢这种定价方式。
The market didn't like that.
什么是对话？
What's a conversation?
我不明白。
I don't understand.
所以他们转向了灵活积分。
So then they've transitioned to flex credits.
灵活积分是根据一系列操作数量来分配一定数量的积分。
Well, flex credits, you get a certain amount of credits driven by a number of actions.
那么，什么是操作？
Again, what's an action?
我可以沿着这条路走下去，但我现在不会这么做。
And I can go down that path, which I'm not gonna do now.
但这完全是基于消耗的。
But that's all consumption based.
完全是基于消耗的。
All consumption based.
当你谈到一致性时，这确实是为了推动市场收入。
And that is really being driven, when you talk about uniformity, yes, it's to drive revenue trying to do this in the market.
投资者喜欢这一点。
Investors like that.
但你必须考虑另一个原因是，这些人工智能和云供应商的成本结构因实时使用而加速上升。
But the other reason why you have to think about it is that these AI, these cloud vendors, they have accelerated cost profiles driven by the fact that their cost and structures with those underlying foundations are scaling based on real time usage as well.
因此，为了维持利润率，他们必须销售基于消耗的产品，因为这正是他们成本结构所面临的压力。
So to maintain their margins, they have to sell products that are consumption based because that's the pain that they're feeling to their cost profiles.
所以我想问你一个问题：关于基于消耗的定价，它对企业软件的结构产生了什么影响？
So let ask you a question about then consumption based pricing and the impact that it has structurally on enterprise software.
你以前来过这个节目，我们讨论过这个观点：如果座位数量减少，你如何弥补呢？
And you've been on the show before and we've talked about this idea that, well, if the number of seats go down, how do you make up for it?
基于使用量的定价可能是这个问题的答案。
Consumption based pricing might be the answer to that.
但我想问你一个问题，亚当，关于按座位收费：以前有一种想法，就是我想只支付给一个供应商，只买一个座位，我不感兴趣去使用这么多不同的供应商。
But one of the questions I have for you, Adam, is with seat based pricing, I mean, there was this whole idea that, Hey, I just want to pay for the one vendor and I just want the one seat and I'm not interested in going to all these different vendors.
直接给我一个一体化的平台就行。
Just give me an all in one sort of platform.
现在，在一个我只为自己使用的内容付费的世界里，我有点纠结：服务是否会因此变得碎片化，因为人们不再需要这种一体化平台。
Now, in a world where it's, well, I'm only paying for what I use, I'm sort of torn on whether or not there will be a fragmentation of services because people won't really need this all in one platform.
还是说，这些产品其实都在重叠，既然最终会走向整合，那碎片化又有什么意义呢？
Or are all these products overlapping and what's the point of fragmentation when there's going be consolidation anyway?
是的。
Yeah.
这里涉及的内容很多。
So there's a lot here.
有人告诉我，我的时间有限，所以我要在这个经济环境中保持诚实。
I was told I only have so much time, so keep myself honest in this economy.
不，不，不，不。
No, no, no, no.
这是最简单的答案。
Here's the answer in its simplest form.
我相信，对于客户来说，这仍将是一个混合且复杂的情况。
I believe it's still gonna be very much a mix and a problematic mix for customers.
我接下来要说的是，你会有一些AI产品仍然是按人数或混合计费的，比如你之前提到的ServiceNow和ProPlus，它们会额外增加协助次数。
And where I'm going with this is, you're gonna have some AI products that are going to be still headcount or hybrid, like ServiceNow you mentioned before, ProPlus that add on to get the number of assists.
你仍然有一个单位，然后还有一定数量的协助次数。
You still have a unit, and then there's a number of assists.
这和我刚才谈到的E5非常相似。
Very much like I just talked about with E5.
即将发生的大事是，这些组织——我说的组织是指客户——必须建立治理模型，准确追踪每个席位的实际使用情况，比如会计部门的鲍勃或市场部的莎莉，他们都需要对自己使用的资源负责。
The big thing that's gonna happen is these organizations are going to have to create, and when I say organizations, the customers, they're gonna have to create governance models just literally on how we are tracking our actual usage at the seat level, like Bob in accounting or Sally in marketing, they need to be accountable for what they're using.
因为想想看，当使用发生时，萨莉使用的并不仅仅是一样东西。
Because think about it, when the consumption happens, it's not just one thing that Sally's using.
萨莉有15个不同的应用程序，每个都有不同的计量方式，这些都需要被整理清楚，然后汇总到公司层面进行管控，因为这些账单会来自各个供应商。
Sally has 15 different applications, all different types of meters, and they have to all be organized and then spit back at a corporate level and govern because those invoices are going to come from those vendors.
无论是微软、Salesforce、ServiceNow、SAP还是Oracle，所有这些供应商都是如此，对吧？
Whether it's Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow, SAP, Oracle, all of them, right?
所以我不认为这会创造一个‘现在变得简单多了’的环境。
So I don't think it's going to create an environment where, oh, it's so much easier now.
我反而认为，你必须建立仪表盘，必须设立治理团队，必须召开季度会议。
I actually think you're going to have to have dashboards, you're going to have to have governance, governance teams, quarterly meetings.
将有一整套措施需要被实施，以追踪实际被使用的部分
There's going be a whole host of things that are going to have to be put in place trying to track what
到底在使用什么。
is actually being used.
真的吗？
Does it?
我的意思是，从你看到的客户情况来看，这个产品有用吗？
I mean, from what you're seeing from customers, is the product working?
我的意思是，好吧。
I mean, all right.
让我告诉你我的看法。
So here's what I would tell you.
我会告诉你，我觉得现在有一些势头，嗯，我有点明白这个方向了，看到了它的走向。
I would tell you that I think there's some momentum to, okay, I kind of see where this is going, seeing where it's going.
不过，这里有个问题。
Here's the problem, though.
当你在为一个你还不确定它会走向何方的东西开出数百万美元的支票时，仅仅看到它的走向是不够的，这本身就是个问题。
Seeing where something's going when you're cutting checks for millions of dollars for the thing that you're still wondering where it's going is a problem.
我还要告诉你的是，它有用吗？
The other thing I would tell you is that, is it working?
首先，我们需要退一步来看。
Well, the first thing is we need to step back.
它实际上是如何被使用的？
How is it actually being used?
这就是问题所在。
This is the problem.
使用定义。
The definitions of use.
你回去问：你们在用它吗？
And you go back and say, well, are you using it?
有人甚至不知道什么是使用。
Someone doesn't even know what use is.
我不知道。
Well, I don't know.
我进行了六次对话。
I had six conversations.
我有五个行动。
I had five actions.
我根本不知道那是什么。
I had I don't understand what that is.
所以现在你有了这种混合状态。
So now you have this mix.
所以根本问题在于，它是否被使用了？
So and the the fundamental question is, is it being used?
首先，我会说它的使用程度没有达到预期水平。
I would say it's being used not to the level that it was expected, number one.
但其次，我认为他们内部甚至都没搞清楚‘使用’到底是什么，更别提ROI、生产力这些高管们期待的东西了。
But number two, I don't think internally they'd even figured out what use actually is, let alone ROI, productivity, all the things that the C suite's expecting.
最后，问题是这些供应商仍然陷在不断推销的思维模式里。
And lastly, the problem is these vendors are still stuck in the mindset of push, push, push.
明白吗？
Okay?
我想要X量。
I want X volume.
你需要Y个行动。
You need Y number of actions.
他们向这个外部层面销售以推动收入。
And they sell to this outer level to drive revenue.
问题在这里。
Here's the problem.
当你质疑供应商，问他们‘你是怎么得出这个数字的？’
When you challenge that vendor to say, How did you come up with that number?
你是怎么得出你认为我需要的行动数量的？
How did you come up with number of actions that you think I need?
你是怎么得出信用额度的数量的？
How did you come up with the number of credits?
死面孔。
Dead faces.
也许用这个词有点悲观，但关键是，他们自己也无法准确定义，因为他们也在摸索中。
Maybe that's a bleak term to use, but the point is there's no way for them to actually define it because they're figuring it out too.
所以，我真的看到用途了吗？
So really, do I see use?
我看到的是测试。
I see testing.
我看到的是摸索。
I see figuring out.
我看到的是愿意探索。
I see willingness to explore.
我是不是坐在这里，和客户一起说：哇，我已经搞明白了。
Am I sitting here with customers like, wow, I got this figured out.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
我看到了投资回报率。
I see the ROI.
我们多做点吧。
Let's do more.
这种情况很少见。
That's far and few between.
在你走之前，我再问你一个问题。
So let me ask you one more question before you go.
所以，跟你交谈并代表的客户们，他们希望这些公司提供更多什么？
So with the customers you're talking with and representing in these deals, what do they want more of from these companies?
产品是有的，而且被以各种方式打包和定价，你知道的，他们到底想要什么？是的。
Mean, products are there and they're being packaged every which way and priced a number of different ways and, you know, like what do they want Yeah.
更多。
More
好的。
All right.
首先，诚实。
So the first thing, honesty.
他们希望这些公司进来时能坦诚地说：‘我们自己也在摸索中。’
They want them to come in and say, Look, we ourselves are figuring this out.
我们自己也在摸索，针对您定义的使用场景，实际的具体投资回报率和生产力提升会是多少。
We ourselves are figuring out what the actual specific ROI productivity is going to be for your defined use cases for you.
先从这一点入手。
Lead with that.
诚实，共同合作。
Honesty, work together.
举办研讨会，把时间集中在这些地方。
Workshops, spend your time focused there.
这才是客户想要的。
That's what customers want.
跨越这个障碍，进行演示，看到价值，然后说：好吧，现在我们来坦诚相待。
Get over that hurdle, do the demos, see the value, and say, Okay, now let's talk honestly.
让我们以完全透明的方式承诺这个数额，这也是他们想要的第二点。
Let's commit to this amount with full transparency, which is the second thing they want.
我需要完全透明。
I need full transparency.
什么是‘what’s used’？
What is a what's used?
什么是‘行动’？
What's an action?
什么是‘对话’？
What's a conversation?
什么是‘协助’？
What's an assist?
我希望根据你今天的理解，为我的场景明确定义所有内容。
I want it all defined for my scenario as you understand it today.
不是那种你们发给每个人的通用PDF或PowerPoint，或者我也可以去你们的网站找——你们不希望那样。
Not generic PDF PowerPoints that you send to everybody, or I can go to I your don't want that.
第三点，成本确定性。
The third thing, cost certainty.
这很明显，但我再稍微强调一下。
That's obvious, but let me play this down for an extra tick.
第一，这是前期的。
One, it's upfront.
第二，我想让你告诉我，当飞轮真正转动起来时，世界会是什么样子？
But two, I want you to tell me what does the world look like when the flywheel actually spins?
你想要的东西，可能也是我想要的，这要花我多少钱？
The thing you want, which I may want to, what is it gonna cost me?
有哪些保障？
What assurances?
什么样的量级结构？
What volume structures?
什么样的信用结构？
What credit structures?
你会给我什么样的承诺和保护？
What type of commitments, protections are you going to give me?
第四，我刚想到的最后一件事。
Fourth last thing I just thought of.
投资。
Investments.
他们需要投资。
They need investments.
你们这些供应商必须进来说明：看。
You have to these vendors need to come in and say, look.
我知道会涉及变革管理。
I know there's gonna be change management.
我知道这需要时间。
I know it's gonna take time.
让我们投资吧。
Let us invest.
让我们为您提供资源。
Let us give you resources.
让我们提供资金作为投资，共同使这件事真正实现。
Let us give you funding as investments to make the thing real working together.
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好的。
Okay.
而且，你认为我们在2026年能实现吗？
And and and do you think we get that in 2026?
是的？
Yes?
不是？
No?
也许？
Maybe?
我认为我们会更接近它。
I don't I think we're going to get closer to it.
我认为我们能完全实现这些吗？
Do I think we're going to get all of that?
不能。
No.
我认为供应商还会坚持立场吗？因为他们被困在微软、Salesforce这样的环境中，你们应该跟我一起思考我所指的方向？
Do I think that vendors are still going to hold the line because they're stuck in, where Microsoft, where Salesforce, you should follow me where I go?
我认为会。
I do.
问题是这样的。
Here's the problem.
到2026年，我认为会出现一些新的供应商，无论是像Sierra这样的亚洲森林竞争对手，还是其他公司，它们会进入市场并加速自身的应用，从而建立起自己的护城河。
In 2026, I do think there's gonna be vendors that are gonna come around, whether it's a Sierra for Asian forest competitors or others that are gonna come in and they're gonna start accelerating their own usage, which then gets them in creating their own moats.
所以，我认为呢？
So do I think?
是的。
Yes.
我认为会更多。
I think there'll be more.
我认为你会看到更好的表现。
I think you're gonna see better behavior.
我认为他们会一开始就自愿解决这个问题吗？
Do I think they're gonna solve it willingly out of the gate?
不会。
No.
我认为你必须提前很久就学会如何协调这些对话，而这正是我们所做的事情。
And I think you have to know how to orchestrate those conversations way in advance, which ultimately not, you know, that's something that we do.
但关键是，客户无论有没有帮助都需要这么做。
But the point is customers need to do this with or without the help.
他们必须将此作为根本方法来推动行为改变，客户必须强制实现行为转变。
They need to make this their foundational approach to get behavior They have to force the behavior change, the customers.
因为供应商不会去做这件事。
Because the vendors are not gonna do it.
因为请记住，我们所说的这些供应商，他们只向一个群体汇报，那就是金融界和他们的投资者。
Because remember, these vendors we're talking about, they report to one group, the financial community, their investors.
仅此而已。
That's it.
他们可以谈论客户以及有多重视客户，我不是说他们不重视，但归根结底，他们是上市公司。
They can talk about customers and how much they care about the customers, which I'm not saying they don't, but at the end of the day, they're publicly traded.
咱们坦诚点吧。
Let's just be honest.
他们需要推动收入。
They need to drive revenue.
就这样。
Period.
没错。
Right.
好吧，亚当，感谢你前来做客。
Well, Adam, I want to thank you for coming on.
我很感谢你抽出时间。
I appreciate the time.
这是来自Upper Edge的实践主管亚当·曼斯菲尔德，欢迎收看TI TV。
That is Adam Mansfield, a practice leader at Upper Edge here on TI TV.
总是很愉快。
Always a pleasure.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
好的。
Okay.
我们的下一位嘉宾是节目的老朋友。
Our next guest is a friend of the show.
萨姆·莱森是慢速风投的普通合伙人。
Sam Lesson is a general partner at Slow Ventures.
他也是我们的主编杰西卡·莱森的丈夫。
He is also the husband of Jessica Lesson, our editor in chief.
萨姆上周末发布了一组相当有趣的预测，阐述了他对2026年走势的看法。
Sam put out a pretty interesting set of predictions over the weekend over how he thinks 2026 is going to play out.
它涵盖了从投机文化到财富创造、人际关系以及人工智能的方方面面。
It covered everything from degen culture to wealth creation to relationships and AI.
我想请他来详细聊聊这个话题。
I want to bring him on to talk all about it.
萨姆，欢迎再次来到节目。
Sam, welcome back to the show.
能来这里总是很高兴。
Always happy to be here.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
新年快乐。
Happy New Year.
好的。
Okay.
那么我们来谈谈你发布的这篇笔记吧。
So let's talk about this note you put on.
你看，你谈到了绝望型抑郁，谈到了财富创造的挑战。
Look, you talked about default depression, you talked about the challenges of wealth creation.
你谈到了赌博。
You talked about gambling.
我觉得2026年看起来有点黯淡。
I it felt like 2026 is looking a little bleak.
我不确定。
I don't know.
嘿。
Hey.
你知道吗，我从度假回家的途中，一直在思考今年会是什么样子，以及商业、文化和社会中真正重要的主题是什么。
You know, I was I was flying home from vacation, and I was trying to think about what this year is gonna be like and what really matters thematically in business and culture and society.
你看，这里有一件有趣的事。
And, look, think here's the interesting thing.
我们生活在一个由叙事主导的世界里，尤其是现在，考虑到它们在互联网上的传播方式。
We live in a world ruled by narratives, especially now, especially given how they travel on the internet.
有很多事情正在发生，这些事情可能并不完全真实，甚至可能永远不真实，但人们却相信它们。
And there's a lot of things going on which may or may not actually fully be true yet or really ever, but people believe them.
而人们相信这些事，就会因此影响他们的行为。
And the fact that they believe them then drives their behavior.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为，一个很好的例子就是这种说法：人工智能将取代所有白领工作。
And so I think, know, a really good example of that is this narrative that AI is gonna replace all the white collar jobs.
对吧？
Right?
那么，这种说法有没有一些事实依据呢？
Now there's is there some shades of truth to it?
大概有。
Probably.
是今年吗？
Is it this year?
大概不会。
Probably not.
但它仍会影响人们对生活的感受、他们的行为以及所做的事情。
And yet it's gonna color how people feel about their lives, how they behave, what they do.
从我的角度来看，我想探讨的问题是：鉴于当前世界正在发生的各种叙事，今年会是什么感觉？
And the question, know, from my perspective, what I was kind of exploring is like, look, you know, given the narratives that are happening right now in the world, how's this year gonna feel?
好的。
Okay.
顺便问一下，我把这些笔记放出来，你有没有注意到？
So and I'm I'm curious, by the way, put these notes out.
你发这个之后收到任何回应了吗？
Did you did you get any responses to this one?
我的意思是，当你贴出这些内容时，人们都跟你说什么？
I mean, what what do people say to you when you put up
这些，我收到了很多很多回应。
these He was he was I got I got many, many responses to it.
这是通过我的通讯发布的。
It's in know, through my newsletter.
你知道，这种事你只会听到那些同意你观点的人的声音。
And, you know, it's one of those things you only hear from the people that agree with you.
所以，同意我观点的人也同意我，他们说，这看起来相当令人沮丧。
So the people that agree with me agree with me, and they're saying, this seems pretty depressing.
而且，你知道，你该怎么指导你的孩子等等。
And, you know, how are you gonna coach your kids, etcetera, etcetera.
我对这些问题没有很好的答案。
I don't have any great answers to that.
但确实，人们——我认为这里最大的宏观图景是，再次把今年当作一年来看，即使抛开技术现实，它也将由人们的感受所主导。
But, yeah, there are people people definitely I think the real the biggest big picture here is, again, thinking about this year as a year, which even aside from technical realities will be ruled by how people by feelings.
我们正处于一个情感主导的文化中。
We're in a feelings culture.
我们正处在一个情感之年。
We're in a feelings year.
从叙事角度来看，很多事情都有可能以多种不同的方式收场。
There's a lot that is, from a narrative perspective, could really end in lots of different places.
就像我们也不知道。
Like, we don't know.
就这一年的发展而言，我们正处于一个关键的十字路口。
We're kind of on a knife's edge in terms of how the year plays out.
因此，我认为大家普遍都在思考如何实时应对，而不是从长远角度去思考真正会发生什么。
And so I think the sense is everyone kind of is thinking about how to react, in real time versus thinking long term about what's actually gonna happen.
那么，预测市场呢？
Now, what about prediction markets?
我猜你提到笔记里的赌博，指的就是这个。
I I assume that's what you were pointing to with your note here about gambling.
我觉得你基本上是在建立这样的联系：嘿。
And I think you were basically drawing the connection that, hey.
如今，年轻人很难赚钱。
It's really tough for young people to to make money nowadays.
你知道吗？
You know?
也许这与预测市场中的所有势头有关。
Maybe that has something to do with with all of the momentum in prediction markets.
你是不是想表达这个意思？
Is that is that the point that you were making?
嗯，这很复杂。
Well, it's complicated.
对吧？
Right?
听好了。
Like, look.
我其实很喜欢预测市场。
I actually love prediction markets.
我觉得预测市场很棒。
I think prediction markets are awesome.
你知道吗，我就像哈耶克的学生。
You know, I'm like a student of Hayek.
对吧？
Right?
在市场中，它们是信息机器。
In markets, they're information machines.
尤其是当传统的新闻、信任和真相来源逐渐崩溃时，通过预测市场并由市场中介来预测世界上真正发生的事情，这一理念显得尤为突出。
And especially as traditional sources of news and trust and truth fall apart, the idea that the best predictor you have of what's actually going on in the world is going to be through a prediction market and mediated by a market.
这是一个很棒的理论。
It's a great intellectual theory.
非常棒。
It's great.
我非常支持这个方向，你知道的。
I'm super pro, you know, that direction.
话虽如此，你知道，还有一种与此密切相关的动态正在发生，对吧？
That said, you know, there's also this dynamic that goes on, right, which is proximate to it.
这是体育博彩，是预测市场，是加密货币，当然也包括迷因股票——你看，大多数年轻人已经明白，在一个存在严重信息不对称的世界里，比如风险投资和那些突然爆红的故事，以及在房价真正崩塌的背景下，要想有所成就，你就必须把钱押在黑色上，并以一种极其不对称的方式押对。
It's sports betting, it's prediction market, it's something that's crypto, it's certainly meme stocks where look, most young people have figured out that in a world of deep asymmetry, right, which is what you see in venture capital and some of these stories that rise like crazy, and in a world where houses are really falling apart, all those things true is that basically you need to put the money on black and be right to a very, very asymmetric way in order to get anywhere.
你不可能靠努力工作买得起房子。
You're not, you're not gonna earn your way into a house.
对吧？
Right?
现在的情况真的是这样吗？
Is that kind of the now is that actually true?
这算是笔记的一部分。
This is kind of the part of the note.
是也不是。
Yes and no.
可能没有人们想象的那么极端，但目前在文化上已被广泛接受。
It's maybe not as dramatically true as people think it is, but it is culturally very accepted right now.
而且在文化上，这已经成为主流叙事，并推动了许多事情的发展。
And culturally, it is the the major narrative, and that's propelling a lot.
所以我认为你需要思考的是，人们正在对这些故事做出反应，而这些故事如今非常有力量。
And so I think that's the thing you have to think about is, again, people reacting to stories and those stories being very powerful right now.
你如何看待这种观点？我们曾就内幕交易以及内幕交易在这些预测市场中发生的可能性进行过一些报道。
What do you think about this notion where we've done some reporting on insider trading and the possibility of it happening on these prediction markets?
我的意思是，一些对这些公司持极度看涨态度、认为它们监管较少的人会说，这正是我们通过交易获得更准确信息的方式。
I mean, I think some people who are very bullish on these companies sort of being a little less regulated will say, Well, this is it's how we get more accurate information out, is by trading on it.
这看起来像是一个滑坡效应。
I mean, that seems like it's a slippery slope.
你怎么看待这个论点？
What do you make of that argument?
所以你看。
So look.
这是一件有趣的事。
It's an interesting thing.
从纯粹的、哲学的角度来看，这些市场中的信息推动并促进实际上属于内幕信息的行为，正如你所说，这恰恰是其目的所在。
From a pure perspective, right, philosophical perspective, in some ways, the fact that information of these markets pump and kind of promote what's effectively inside information is, as you said, that's literally the point.
对吧？
Right?
就像，信息机器的目的是每个人都有动力贡献自己最好的信息，以从中获利。
Like, the point of an information machine is that everyone's incentivized, right, to contribute their best information in order to profit off of it.
但这与内幕信息的概念不太相符。
Now that doesn't jive very well with the concept of inside information.
对吧？
Right?
这些几乎是哲学上不相容的系统。
These are, like, almost philosophically incompatible systems.
我们作为社会将如何解决这个问题？
How are we gonna resolve that as a society?
你知道的。
You know?
我认为在很多方面这还有待观察。
I think that's TBD in a lot of ways.
问题是，谁来惩罚谁？
Like, the question is who punishes who?
风险和回报是什么？但人们最终还是受激励驱动的。
What are the risks and rewards, but people are ultimately ruled by incentives.
对吧？
Right?
我认为这正是支持预测市场的人会说的：但内幕交易呢？实际上，这些是完全不相容的系统，我们必须作为社会来厘清我们对它们的看法。
And I do think it's one of those things where when when people who are pro prediction markets say, but insider trading, you know, reality is they're just incompatible systems and we have to resolve how we feel about them as a society.
你现在在笔记里提到了内容信任的问题，这里也提到了。
Now you talked a little bit about trust in in content in your note, and you touched on it here as well.
你显然在SLO有创作者基金。
You obviously have the the creator fund at SLO.
你们今年如何看待创作者经济？你们在关注哪些趋势？有什么预测？
How are you guys thinking about the creator economy this year and what sorts of trends you're watching and what predictions you have?
嗯。
Yeah.
所以你看，我认为创作者经济基本上是去年的延续。
So look, I mean, the creator economy, I think it's basically a continuation of last year.
那我们看到了什么？
And what do we see?
第一，你知道，我们都明白，这虽然是一种叙事，但也是事实。
One, you know, look, we all we all understand, and again, this is a narrative, but it's also true.
对吧？
Right?
制度信任的优势在于它是真实的，而制度信任实际上非常低。
That the institutional trust has the benefit of being true, which is institutional trust is extremely low.
对吧？
Right?
这意味着什么？
And so what does that mean?
这意味着人们更信任个人。
That means people trust individuals.
他们信任的是有个性的人。
They trust characters effectively.
为什么？
And why?
因为他们有不欺骗的动机。
Because they have incentive to not cheat.
就像你知道的，有很多理由表明，信任个人比信任一个靠不住的机构更合理。
Like they, you know, there's a whole bunch of reasons why trusting an individual versus a squirrelly institution makes sense.
那么，你信任哪些机构呢？
Then there's a question of what institutions do you trust?
这变得有点尖锐了，因为我认为我们正在从大众市场创作者转向更细分的本地创作者和社区创作者，他们就像是你真正热衷的某个领域的上帝之类的。
And this is where it gets a little spicy because I would argue that we're moving out even from a world of mass market creators to niche local creators and community creators that are like kind of the god of blank or whatever domain you're really excited about.
所以，这是我今年对创作者经济的重大预测，我认为这与信任问题以及人们如何相互关联有关：许多广为人知的大众市场创作者，虽然很有名，但在任何特定领域都不是真正深入的专家。
So this is like my big prediction for the what's for the for the creator economy this year that I think relates to this question of trust and how people kind of relate to each other is a lot of the mass market creators who are kind of known by everyone, they're famous, but they're not really deeply industry or expert domains in any one thing.
他们并未获得特定社群的深度信任，因此正变得越来越不重要。
They're not deeply trusted by a similar community become less relevant.
影响力变得不那么重要了。
Reach becomes less relevant.
算法操控变得不那么重要了。
Algorithmic hacking becomes less relevant.
更重要的是在特定垂直领域中的深度真实性和社区领导力。
And what becomes more relevant is deep authenticity and community leadership in a specific vertical.
所以更像是 cult 领袖，而不是 Mr.
So kind of more cult leaders, less Mr.
Beast。
Beast.
所以我们又回到了这种微型影响力者的氛围。
So we're going back to this whole sort of micro influencer climate.
这并不是微型。
It's not micro.
我的意思是，你可以这么叫，但其实它讲究的是深度，而不是广度。
I would I mean, you can call it that, but really what it is is it's deep, not broad.
对吧？
Right?
当信任逐渐消失，人们开始在更小的群体中寻找目的、归属感和意义时，你希望的是在某个特定领域内建立深度连接，而不是被所有人认识。
Which is you basically want you know, as trust erodes and as people look for communities in smaller pockets where they can have purpose and place and meaning in a specific area, The idea that you're just known by everyone is not that valuable.
这就像是，人人都知道他们，但没有人真正深度信任他们。
It's kind of like, you know, everyone knows them, but no one really trusts them that deeply.
你真正需要的是那些忠实的追随者。
What you really want is like your true believers.
你需要一群核心受众，他们认为：‘这个人就是我生活中愿意信任的人，而且我有充分的理由。’
You need like a core of audience that is like, this is the person that I choose to trust in life, and I have a reason for it.
我会购买他们的产品，相信他们所说的话，等等。
And like, I buy things from them, and I believe what they say, etcetera.
所以我认为，你会发现这些社区正变得越来越紧密、越来越小，在很多方面也更加有价值和持久。
So I think what you're gonna find in like, is just kind of these these communities becoming tighter, smaller, and in a lot of ways more valuable and durable.
而不再依赖算法操控、纯粹的传播和哗众取宠。
And less based on algorithmic hacking and just pure distribution and shock jocgery.
但我我只是想弄清楚这一点。
But but I I I just wanna understand this this point here.
我的意思是，当我想到微影响力者运动时，我会想到那些在Instagram上有三万粉丝的人，因为他们了解自己的受众，是更可靠的真相来源。
I mean I mean, when I think of that micro influencer movement, I think of, you know, the people who have 30,000 followers on Instagram being the more reliable source of truth because they know who their audience is.
这和那个有什么不同呢？
Why is this different from that?
嗯，我觉得可能比三万人多一点，但总的来说，我觉得在很多情况下，这其实已经很小了。
Well, I'd say it's probably a little bigger than 30,000, but I basically say, like, oh, you know, in a lot of cases, like, that's that's pretty small.
但没错。
But Yeah.
我想要表达的是，你希望人们这样想：
What I basically say is, like, the the point is that you want people like, think of it this way.
你有世界上最好的朋友。
You have your best friend in the world.
对吧？
Right?
你信任你的最好的朋友，对吧？出于很多原因。
You trust your best friend, right, for a whole bunch of reasons.
你们在价值观上有些相似。
You kind of share values with them.
你们有共同的兴趣。
You share interests with them.
如果他们骗你，你会过去揍他们一顿。
If they lie to you, you're gonna go over them and smack them on the head.
对吧？
Right?
这样说你能明白吗？
If that makes sense.
所以，这种关系在很多方面都是持久的。
So, like, there's like a relationship there that's durable in a lot of ways.
我认为，将这种关系扩展到五万、十万粉丝的社群中，坦白说，你根本没听说过其中99%的人，因为他们对你来说太小众、太具体了，你根本不知道他们是谁。
I think the scale up of that into the 50,000, 100,000 follower communities, someone candidly, you've never heard of 99% of these people because they're too small and too specific for you to know who they are.
对吧？
Right?
但如果你特别喜欢编织，或者特别喜欢某种形式的狩猎，这些才是你认识并信任的人。
But if you're specifically into knitting if you're specifically into hunting in some certain forms, these are the people that you know and trust.
这些人往往能取得很大成功，而那些你听说过名字、却没有任何理由比其他人更信任他们、拥有五千万粉丝的人则不然。
Those are the people that are gonna really succeed in a lot of ways versus the people whose name you've heard of, but you have no reason to trust them really over someone else and they have 50,000,000 followers.
对。
Right.
很好。
Great.
好了，萨姆，感谢你来参加节目。
Well, Sam, I want to thank you for coming on.
这位是萨姆·莱森，Slow Ventures的普通合伙人，来自TI TV。
That is Sam Lesson, a general partner at Slow Ventures here on TI TV.
我明白了。
I see.
OpenAI预测，到下一个十年开始时，全球三分之一的人口将使用ChatGPT。
OpenAI has projected that one third of the planet will be using ChatGPT by the start of the next decade.
这大约是其当前每周9亿用户的三倍。
That is roughly triple its current 900,000,000 weekly users.
但ChatGPT获取这些新用户的地方很重要，因为这可能会影响OpenAI雄心勃勃的收入目标最终在哪些地区实现。
But where ChatGPT gets these new users matters because it could actually have an impact on where OpenAI's ambitious revenue targets end up playing out.
我们的OpenAI记者Sri Mapiti就这一主题撰写了一篇精彩的文章，现在他加入了我们。
Our OpenAI reporter, Sri Mapiti, wrote a great column on this topic and joins me now.
Sri，欢迎再次回到节目。
Sri, welcome back to the show.
很高兴见到你。
It's great to see you.
很高兴能来这里。
Great to be here.
请先谈谈公司的预测。
Start us off with the company's projections.
你提到他们预计到2030年将有26亿周活跃用户。
You talked about they see 2,600,000,000 weekly active users in 2030.
那么，26亿周活跃用户能转化为多少收入？他们预期的收入是多少？
So 2,600,000,000 weekly active users, what kind of revenue does that translate to in terms of what they're expecting?
完全正确。
Totally.
所以，26亿周活跃用户是指2030年的数据。
So the 2,600,000,000 weekly active users is in 2030.
在那一年，OpenAI预计总收入将达到约2000亿美元，其中约460亿美元来自面向免费用户的新型盈利产品。
In that year, OpenAI expected to generate roughly $200,000,000,000 in revenue with about 46,000,000,000 of it coming from new products that monetize free users.
正如我们之前报道的，ChatGPT的绝大多数用户都是免费用户。
And as we've reported before, more a vast majority of ChatGPT's users are free users.
因此，这可能通过广告或电子商务等方式实现收入。
And so this could be, for for example, by generating revenue from advertising or e commerce.
因此，总用户基数如此重要，因为尽管26亿周活跃用户数量庞大，占全球人口近三分之一，但其中绝大多数仍然是免费用户。
And so that's why the total user base is so important just because while 2,600,000,000 weekly active users is a large number, nearly third of the population, it still is a vast majority of it for users.
所以OpenAI需要找到一种方法来真正实现这些用户的盈利。
So OpenAI needs to figure out a way to actually monetize these users.
好的。
Okay.
在我们进入下一个话题之前，实际上，我觉得你指出的这一点令人震惊：这2000亿美元收入中的25%竟然来自一个尚未真正推出的产品线。
Now, before we get to the next topic, actually, I think it's staggering that you pointed out here that basically 25% of that $200,000,000,000 in revenue is coming from a product line that effectively really hasn't been rolled out yet.
我们之前讨论过购物和广告。
We've talked about shopping and advertising.
关键是，这个大问题是什么，对吧？
Mean, is the big question, right?
它到底会是什么样子？
And what does it even look like?
而他们却说，这将占我们业务的25%。
And here they're saying it's going to end up being 25% of our business.
我还想谈谈地域分布。
I want to talk also about the geography.
所以你在文章中提到过，用户所处的地理位置传统上会影响大型科技公司的收入多少。
So you made this point in the story in the column about how depending on where a user is located, has traditionally had an impact on how much revenue it brings in for large tech companies.
请稍微谈谈这一点，然后我们再具体聊聊OpenAI。
Talk a little bit about that, and then we'll talk about OpenAI specifically.
完全正确。
Totally.
所以我们研究了其他几家数字广告公司。
So we looked at a number of other digital ad companies.
例如，包括Meta、Pinterest和Snap。
This includes, for example, Meta and Pinterest and Snap.
我们发现，美国和加拿大的用户虽然只占总用户的一小部分，却贡献了不成比例的巨额收入。
And what we find disproportionately is that users from The US and Canada drive a disproportionate amount of revenue despite the small percentage of total users.
以Pinterest为例，2025年第三季度，来自美国和加拿大的用户创造了其近75%的收入，但这些用户仅占Pinterest6亿月活跃用户的不到五分之一。
So if we zoom in, for example, on Pinterest, users from US and Canada generated nearly 75 percent of Pinterest third quarter revenue in 2025, but they only accounted for less than a fifth of Pinterest 600,000,000 monthly active users.
因此，这一点在‘每位用户平均收入’这一指标中体现得非常明显。
And so this shows up in a metric called average revenue per user.
所以我们
And so what we
发现ARPU。
find ARPU.
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Exactly.
因此，在2025年第三季度，美国和加拿大用户在Pinterest上的每用户平均收入为7.64美元，欧洲为1.31美元，世界其他地区仅为21美分。
So the ARPU for US and Canada users Pinterest is $7.64 for that third quarter while Europe was $1.31 and the rest of the world was just 21¢.
这充分说明了在扩展OpenAI业务的同时实现盈利至关重要。
And that really just shows up sort of how important monetizing while expanding OpenAI's business is really important.
它表明，尤其是美国和加拿大，当你观察Meta、Pinterest等其他公司时，能够有效变现这些用户非常重要。
It just shows up that The US and Canada in particular, when you look at other companies like MetaPinterest, it's important to actually be able to monetize these users.
好的。
Okay.
所以，如果他们想实现2000亿美元的收入，而我们知道从北美以外的客户那里赚钱确实更难，那么ChatGPT的用户在哪里？
So now if they want to get to $200,000,000,000 in revenue, and we know that it's harder to make money from customers outside of North America really, where are the users for ChatGPT?
他们目前主要分布在哪些地区？
Where are they located currently?
是的，目前OpenAI每周活跃用户排名前五的市场是美国、印度、巴西、日本和法国。
Yeah, so the top five markets for OpenAI's weekly active users today are US, India, Brazil, Japan, and France.
我的意思是，你认为他们在实现这一收入目标上定位如何？
That so, mean, where I'm going with this is, you know, are they well positioned to make this revenue target, you think?
或者，你认为他们面临哪些挑战？
Or what are some of the challenges you see them facing?
我认为他们将面临的主要挑战是，印度和巴西占据了前两大市场。
I think the big challenge that they'll face is just given that India and Brazil are in the top two markets.
这将极大地推动每周活跃用户数的增长。
They're going to really help with that metric of driving weekly active users.
但当你看像Pinterest的例子那样，全球其他地区（如印度和巴西）的每用户平均收入可能远低于美国和加拿大。
But when you look at, for example, just like the 21¢ and Pinterest example where the rest of the world, India and Brazil won't necessarily have the ARPUs as like The US and Canada that they have.
因此，我们已经看到OpenAI推出了Chattypreet订阅模式，其费用约为5美元，而针对非这些地区的用户，其他计划则为20美元或200美元。
And so we see this already with how OpenAI has launched a Chattypreet go subscription model where it costs roughly $5 as compared to a $20 or $200 plan for, for example, users that are not in those like go areas.
你可以看到，世界其他地区的ARPU将低于例如美国的用户。
You see that the ARPU for the rest of the world is going to be less than, for example, the users in The US.
因此，我认为这对OpenAI来说是一个挑战，因为他们必须非常聪明地制定这些用户的变现策略，看看是否能以一种仍有助于实现其长期目标和指标的方式做到这一点。
So I think that this poses a challenge for OpenAI just because they have to be really smart in how they actually monetize these users and see if they can do that in a way that still helps them get to their metrics and goals that they want in the long run.
很好。
Great.
好了，Sri，感谢你前来做客。
Well, Sri, I want to thank you for coming on.
这是一次很有见地的对话。
It was an insightful column.
这位是Sri Mapudi，我们《The Information》的OpenAI和Anthropic记者。
That is Sri Mapudi, our OpenAI and Anthropic Reporter here at The Information.
好了，今天的节目就到这里。
Well, does it for today's show.
提醒一下，我们每周一至周五上午10点（太平洋时间）下午1点（东部时间）在此直播。
A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.
感谢您收看。
I want to thank you for tuning in.
我们非常感谢您的支持。
We really do appreciate your viewership.
我已经迫不及待想明天的节目了。
I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.
祝您周一剩下的时光愉快。
Have a great rest of your Monday.
暂时再见。
Bye bye for now.
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