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欢迎各位来到Informations TITV。
Welcome everyone to the Informations TITV.
我叫阿卡什·帕什里查。
My name is Akash Pashricha.
今天是12月5日，星期五。
It is Friday, December 5.
我们为大家准备了一场内容丰富的节目，为这一周画上圆满句号。
We have a jam packed show for you to end the week.
我们当然有一些重大新闻：Netflix成功竞得华纳兄弟探索公司的收购案，宣布将以超过800亿美元的现金和股票收购该工作室及其流媒体业务。
We have some major news, of course, that Netflix is the winning bidder for the Warner Brothers Discovery acquisition announcing it will acquire the studio and streaming operations for more than $80,000,000,000 in cash and stock.
这笔交易合理吗？
Does that deal make sense?
这笔交易能顺利达成吗？
Will it go through?
我们即将邀请联合执行主编马丁·皮尔斯登场，为大家详细解析这一切。
We have got our co executive editor, Martin Pierce, coming on in just a moment to break it all down.
接下来，我们将深入探讨硅谷为何对苹果的继任计划热议纷纷，尽管首席执行官蒂姆·库克尚未公开表示任何离职意向。
We'll then turn to some exclusive reporting on why Silicon Valley is buzzing about Apple's succession plans, even though CEO Tim Cook has made no public indication he's stepping down.
我们还有一篇周末精选深度报道，详尽剖析了博通首席执行官霍克·谭，以及博通为何可能成为英伟达最可信的竞争对手。
We also have a standout weekend read, a deep profile of the Broadcom CEO, Hawk Tan, and why Broadcom might be NVIDIA's most credible challenger.
之后，我们将进入本周的编辑精选，深入探讨OpenAI与谷歌之间日益激烈的竞争。
After that, we'll get into this week's editor's cut, diving into the intensifying rivalry between OpenAI and Google.
在节目最后，我将与Dude Perfect的首席执行官进行一场精彩的对话，Dude Perfect是YouTube上最具影响力的品牌之一。
To close out the show, I've got a great conversation with the CEO of Dude Perfect, one of the biggest names in YouTube.
这将是一期内容丰富的节目，让我们马上进入正题。
It's gonna be a busy show, and so let's get right on into things.
Netflix已同意以827亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索公司的影视制作和流媒体业务，这终结了包括派拉蒙、Skydance和康卡斯特在内的多方竞购战。
Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery Studio and streaming businesses for $82,700,000,000 that puts an end to a bidding war that also included Paramount, Skydance, and Comcast.
这是一笔重大交易，我想邀请一位对此有深刻见解的人士来分享看法。
It is a big deal, and I want to bring on someone who I know has thoughts on all of this.
马丁·皮尔斯是《The Information》的联合执行主编。
Martin Pierce is the co executive editor at The Information.
马丁，你怎么看？
Martin, what do you think?
我觉得这是最愚蠢的交易。
I think this is the stupidest deal.
我必须说，在所有愚蠢的媒体交易中，很难再找到比这更离谱的了。
And I have to say that in the history of dumb media deals, it's very hard to sort of, you know, pass them.
2018年AT&T收购时代华纳时，当时看起来像是世界上最愚蠢的交易。
AT and T's purchase of Time Warner in 2018 at the time appeared to be the world's dumbest deal.
当然，他们最终还是把那笔交易剥离了。
They ended up, of course, spinning that off.
这甚至更愚蠢。
This is even stupid.
事实上，这笔交易愚蠢到了极点。
In fact, this is such a stupid deal.
我甚至开始怀疑，Netflix是否知道这笔交易根本通不过，但他们只是想搞垮Paramount，拖延Paramount真正收购华纳的进程。
I would even I'm even beginning to wonder whether Netflix knows this deal will not get through, but they are just trying to screw up Paramount and delay Paramount's ability to actually buy water.
好的。
Okay.
所以我想逐一分析这些内容和所有这些想法。
So I want to unpack all of those things and all those thoughts.
我们来看看他们实际上同意购买的是什么。
Let's go to what they're actually agreeing to buy.
这个业务的哪一部分？
What part of the business is this?
他们只购买电影工作室，华纳兄弟。
They're only buying the film studio, Warner Brothers.
这是一个标志性的电影工作室，他们还购买了HBO Max流媒体服务。
It's an iconic film studio, and they're buying the HBO Max streaming service.
这些是核心资产，但他们没有购买真正赚最多钱的部分，即正在衰退的有线电视频道。
Those are the jewel assets but they're not buying the parts of the business that actually make the most money which are the cable channels which are declining.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
谢天谢地。
Thank God for that.
但他们支付的价格简直高得离谱。
But the price they're paying is absolutely enormous.
问题是，这不会带来任何新增价值。
And the problem is this is not gonna add to anything.
我的意思是，几乎所有能用Netflix的人已经都在用了。
I mean, almost everybody who can have Netflix has it already.
现在还有谁会为了能看HBO Max而去付费订阅Netflix呢？
Who is pay for Netflix now that you can get, you know, HBO Max on it?
他们今天早上实际上承认了这一点。
They they actually admitted this morning.
这两个订阅用户群体之间有大量的重叠。
There's an awful lot of overlap between the two subscriber groups.
这除了给Netflix带来债务，以及未来十八个月需要与政府谈判以争取批准这笔交易之外，什么也给不了。
This doesn't give Netflix anything except debt and the need to spend the next eighteen months negotiating with the government to try to get this deal approved.
我认为最终这会遭到反对，整个交易就会崩溃。
And I think in the end, it will get opposed and the thing will just collapse.
所以我认为这是个巨大的错误，
So I think it's a gigantic mistake by
所以你认为这笔交易根本不会通过吗？
So you don't think the deal will go through at all?
我认为政府不可能允许最大的流媒体服务收购另一家非常大的流媒体公司，尤其是派拉蒙，它原本在竞购华纳，且与政府关系密切，显然会大力游说反对这笔交易。
I don't think there's any chance that the government is going to allow the largest streaming service to buy one of the other very big streaming services, particularly as Paramount, which was competing to buy Warner, is close to the administration and will obviously do a very intense job in arguing why this deal should be opposed.
所以今天早上的电话中，抛开Netflix可能只是为了阻止其他公司获得这项资产这一想法，
So on the call this morning, I mean, what is the putting aside the idea that maybe Netflix did this as a as a way to sort of stop the other companies from getting their hands on this property.
那么高管们所说的战略依据是什么？
What is the strategic rationale then that the executives are saying?
你看，今天早上的股价走势，并没有像Netflix的股价那样暴跌。
Look, if you look at the stock this morning, it's not like the stock has fallen off a cliff this morning for Netflix.
股价其实早在过去六周左右就已经下跌了15%。
The stock had already fallen 15% in the last six weeks or so.
所以我认为这已经预料到了。
So I think this is already expected.
他们给出的战略理由根本站不住脚。
The strategic rationale that they gave was not really there.
他们说这会给消费者带来更多选择，但这毫无道理，因为消费者已经可以获取所有这些内容，只是需要为两个服务分别付费。
They said this would give consumers more choice, which makes no sense because consumers can already get all of this content, they just have to pay for both services.
所以抛开
So putting
他们如何
them how
这怎么会给它们带来更多选择呢？
does that give them more choice?
他们说这会创造就业机会，但考虑到他们已经表示要削减成本，这实际上会摧毁就业，这个论点真是令人费解。
They said that this would create jobs, which is really a fascinating argument given that they've already said they're going to cut costs so this will actually destroy jobs.
他们根本没说出任何真正有逻辑意义的东西。
They really didn't say anything that actually made any logical sense.
所以这就是为什么我开始觉得，也许整个这件事只是个假意拖延派拉蒙的举措。
So that's why I'm beginning to think maybe this entire thing is just a fake effort to sort of delay Paramount.
我的意思是，你觉得这其中有没有防御性的成分？
I mean, do think that there's a defensive element to it.
他们想阻止任何人获取这些资产，因为这可能会影响他们，可能会让竞争对手变得更有效率。
They wanted to prevent anyone else from getting their hands on these assets because that might have affected them because it might have made somebody who's competing with them even more effective.
但事实上，他们支付的价格如此之高，我认为根本不值得。
But really, they're also just paying such a high price that I don't think it's worth it.
对。
Right.
那我们来谈谈为什么华纳兄弟探索公司要出售？
So let's talk about why was Warner Brothers discovery?
它最初为什么会上市出售？
Why was it going up for sale in the first place?
给我们简单讲讲这段历史。
Talk us a little bit through the history here.
这有一段很长的历史。
It's a long history.
时代华纳在2018年被AT&T收购，因为当时的管理层已经看到了趋势的变化。
Time Warner was sold in 2018 to AT and T because the management at that time decided that they could see the writing on the wall.
这家公司主要经营有线电视频道业务，而这一业务正在衰退。
The company was predominantly the cable channel business which is in decline.
所以他们决定退出。
So they decided they would just exit.
AT&T收购了它。
AT and T bought it.
AT&T显然是个灾难性的买家。
AT and T was obviously a disastrous buyer.
他们根本不了解娱乐产业。
They don't understand the entertainment industry.
所以几年后，他们决定把它卖掉。
So after a few years, they decided to sell it.
探索频道收购了它。
Discovery bought it.
他们了解娱乐产业，但在收购时背负了巨额债务。
They understand the entertainment industry but in buying it, they took on debt, a huge amount of debt.
在过去三年里，他们不得不削减成本，试图让这笔交易成功。
And they've had to spend the past three years cutting costs to try to make the deal work.
到目前为止，股价表现非常糟糕。
And so far the stock has done really badly.
所以我认为人们看到了介入的机会。
So I think people saw the opportunity to sort of move in.
这一举动由派拉蒙发起，这是埃里森家族的公司。
And this was sparked by Paramount, is the Ellison family's company.
他们正试图扩张，并提出了报价，促使公司（抱歉，促使董事会）将公司推向市场。
They are trying to expand and they made an offer which led the company to put the sorry, led the board to put the company on the market.
但似乎董事会并不想将公司出售给派拉蒙。
But it seems that the board didn't want to sell to Paramount.
我不确定为什么，但无论如何，我们现在就处于这个局面。
I'm not sure why, but in any case, this is where we are now.
对。
Right.
所以现在想想，在你所说的这笔交易不会达成的情况下，我想我还是想保持一种可能性，那就是也许交易会达成，对吧？
And so now thinking about this, you know, in in the scenario here where you're saying the deal doesn't go through, I guess I'm trying to keep it open to a possibility that maybe it goes through, right?
然后奈飞必须承担所有这些债务来资助这笔收购。
And then Netflix has to take on all this debt fund this acquisition.
债务，当然，就像你指出的那样，正是债务拖垮了众多媒体公司。
Debt, of course, just like you pointed out, debt is the thing that dragged down a number of the media companies in the first place.
我的意思是，三四年之后，被收购的这家公司的业务会怎样？
I mean, three, four years from now, what happens to the business that it's acquired?
我认为，如果这笔交易真的达成，奈飞将会花上好几年不断削减成本。
Well, I think if the deal does go through, Netflix will then spend several years cutting, cutting, cutting.
我认为他们会提高价格。
I think that they will raise prices.
只是想想，我们最终可能会回到现在这个状态。
Just think that we'll end up maybe in the same place that we are in now.
他们可能会最终——我不确定。
They'll probably end up I mean, I'm not sure.
真的很难说，但我觉得这最终对他们不会有什么好处。
It's really hard to tell, but don't think this will be good for them in the end.
很好。
Great.
马丁，谢谢你能来。
Well, Martin, I wanna thank you for coming on.
我知道你最近也发表了一篇关于这个话题的文章，我建议大家都去读一读。
And I know you just published a piece on this as well, which I encourage everyone to read.
我们会在节目笔记中附上链接。
We will link it in the show notes.
这位是马丁·佩尔斯，《信息》杂志的联合执行主编。
That is Martin Pierce, the co executive editor here at The Information.
好的。
Okay.
苹果的继任计划最近引起了广泛关注。
Apple's succession plan has gotten a lot of buzz lately.
尽管蒂姆·库克还没有提及离开，但苹果圈内许多人已经列出了一份短名单，认为这些人可能接任下一任CEO。
And even though Tim Cook hasn't said anything about leaving, a lot of people in the Apple Orbit have a short list of people that they think could take the reins next.
我的同事亚伦·蒂利就这一话题发表了一篇深度报道，包含大量内部消息，我想请他来详细聊聊。
My colleague, Aaron Tilly, published a deep dive on the topic with a ton of inside reporting, and I want to bring him on to talk all about it.
亚伦，欢迎来到节目。
Aaron, welcome to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
嗯。
Yeah.
谢谢邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
那么，为什么最近大家都在谈论苹果的继任问题呢？
So why is everyone talking about apple succession these days?
很多事情正在发生。
There's a lot going on.
在过去一年里，直接向首席执行官蒂姆·库克汇报的高管团队出现了加速更替。
There's been, over the past year, an acceleration of just turnover at the direct report ranks to the CEO, Tim Cook.
而且，这已经是蒂姆·库克执掌苹果的第十五个年头了，几乎十五年了，而他刚刚满65岁。
And then on top of that, this is now fifteen years into Tim Cook, nearly fifteen years into Tim Cook's reign, and he's just turned 65.
在人工智能方面，有很多事情正在酝酿，人们也在质疑蒂姆·库克是否足够积极，是否在为苹果迎接这一技术阶段做好了准备。
There's a lot kind of coming down the pike in terms of with AI and questions about is Tim Cook kind of hustling enough and getting Apple prepared for that stage of technology.
所以，高管层的变动以及整个科技行业的变化，都让情况变得复杂。
So, you know, there's a lot going on with changes with executives the overall tech industry.
我们这一周的新闻中，确实看到了大量高管离职。
The week of news that we had this week, I mean, we saw a lot of departures.
我们还看到了一些退休情况。
We had retirements too.
约翰·甘安德里亚离开公司。
John Ganandria stepping away from the company.
我们还有，我认为是总法律顾问，他也正在离开。
We had the, I think it was the general counsel, that that is is also moving away.
然后我认为第三个是，一位高管去了Meta。
Then I think the third was, it was an executive moving to meta.
这些是那种反映，还是说其实这只是迟早的事？
Are these sort of, you know, a reflection of that, or, you know, is this just a long time coming really?
我的意思是，这确实是迟早的事，但我认为这 definitely 是为了制定计划，也就是继任计划，因为你正在组建一个稳定的高管团队，他们将跟随下一位CEO。
I mean, this is a this is a long time coming, but definitely a reflection, I think, of setting up plan, you know, the succession plan, because you're getting the sort of stable group of executives who are going to be with the next CEO.
你不希望在任命新CEO的同时，出现一波高管离职。
You don't want when the next CEO is appointed for a spat of executive departures right then.
这些高管也在准备退休。
These executives are also preparing to retire.
所以要在新CEO上任之前提前做好安排。
And so do it ahead of time before the new CEO comes on board.
好的。
Okay.
所以你现在深入了，呃， dive 的过去式是 dove。
So now you you dove into dived, dove.
我不知道过去式是什么。
I don't know what the past tense is.
你谈到了几个候选人。
You went into a couple of the candidates.
约翰·特尼斯是你提到被谈论最多的候选人。
John Turnis was the candidate that you said has been talked about the most.
约翰·特尼斯是谁？为什么大家在谈论他？
Who is John Turnis, and why are people talking about him?
是的，他真的很像蒂姆·库克那种类型。
Yeah, he's a really, you know, he's kind of in the mold of Tim Cook.
我的意思是，他来自不同的部门，不是像蒂姆·库克那样出身运营，而是硬件工程。
I mean, he comes from a different group coming up in a different group, not operations like Tim Cook, but hardware engineering.
相对于公司其他高级副总裁来说，他比较年轻。
And he is young relatively to with the rest of the senior vice presidents at the company.
他今年50岁。
He's 50.
这使他成为苹果公司最年轻的高级副总裁，直接向蒂姆·库克汇报。
That sets him up to be the young, well, the youngest senior vice president at Apple reporting to Tim Cook.
他来自硬件工程背景，领导着他们的硬件产品团队。
And so he comes from this background doing hardware engineering, leading their hardware product group.
他的举止非常像蒂姆·库克，我认为这让他在这一点上与蒂姆更亲近。
And that's like, you know, he is in his demeanor, very Tim Cook like, which I think is, you know, it bonds him to Tim a bit on that point.
但他比蒂姆更偏向产品导向。
But he also comes up with more product oriented than Tim.
所以我认为，他将成为一位比蒂姆更注重产品的首席执行官。
So I think there's some appeal there that he's going to be a more product driven CEO than what Tim was.
我认为他们在性格和气质上的差异并不大，但我认为，由他接任后，公司可能会变得更加注重产品。
I don't think the differences are that big in terms of demeanor and disposition, but I think, you know, potentially more product driven company with him taking over.
还有谁在竞争之中？
And who else is in the running?
我的意思是，克雷格·费德里吉是我们从很多他们的视频和主题演讲中熟知的名字。
I mean, Craig Craig Federicki is name that we know from a lot of their videos and keynotes and stuff like that.
他也在候选名单上吗？
He's he's up there?
当然有。
Yeah, for sure.
我认为他肯定被考虑过，但据我们接触过的高管们说，他可能不是合适的人选。
He is he's, I think, definitely has been considered, but he is doesn't have, you know, from what people executives we've spoken to that he maybe isn't the right candidate.
他非常专注于软件，而不是硬件，也不涉及作为CEO必须深入处理的政策问题。
He's very fixated on software, not on sort of hardware and not on sort of the policy issues that you really have to dive into as CEO.
所以我认为他目前在公司里并不是一个非常有力的候选人，而且说实话，我认为他本人也不太想要这个职位。
So I don't think he's a super strong candidate at the company at the moment, and I don't think he really wants it, to be honest.
所以这只是一个被提过的名字而已。
So it's just a name certainly that's been floated about.
他们是否确信必须从内部寻找首席执行官？
And are they convinced that they have to go internally to look for the CEO?
他们有考虑过外部人选吗？
Are they looking outside at all?
不，他们非常倾向于内部候选人。
No, they're pretty fixated on an inside candidate.
你知道，苹果的文化非常独特，外部人员在那里很难适应。
You know, Apple is a very particular culture, and outsiders really struggle inside there.
当你从外部加入时，他们会把你排挤出去，因为你根本融入不了。
It's a you know, they're they're kind of pushed out if when you come in from the outside, you just do not mesh well.
所以这是一项艰巨的任务。
So it's a it's a it's a task.
所以我认为必须由内部人士担任。
So I think it really needs to be an internal.
没错。
Right.
那我问你一个问题。
Well, let me ask you this.
我的意思是，苹果现在正处在人工智能的关键转折点，我们之前请你上节目时，你谈过他们在产品上遇到的一些成长烦恼。
I mean, Apple is kind of at this inflection point here with AI, and we've had you on the show before talking about some of the growing pains they've had with their products.
有没有这样的观点：你需要选的这个人，用个不太恰当的说法，应该在某种程度上是‘AI原生’的，对吧？
Is there an argument to make in saying that the person that you need to pick should be, you know, I guess for lack of better word, I mean, they should be AI native in some ways, right?
他们应该能预见AI的未来，帮助公司朝这个方向发展。
They should see the future with AI, they should help the company go in that direction.
你认为这是他们可能探索的一个方向吗？
Do you think that is one lane they might explore?
他们如何平衡这一点与硬件或供应链这些显然非AI的事务呢？
And how do they balance that with obviously the, you know, the hardware or the supply chain?
我的意思是，这些都属于他们必须熟悉的非AI领域。
I mean, these are all sort of non AI things they have to be versed in.
当然。
For sure.
我认为下一位CEO必须将人工智能作为未来的核心战略。
I think the next CEO has to be has to have AI as a as a strategy going forward.
但我认为这家公司，其本质始终会根植于硬件。
But I think this company, it will always come, its DNA will always be rooted in hardware.
我认为这才是他们擅长的地方，也是他们必须继续保持卓越的领域。
I think that is where they excel and that's where they have to still maintain their excellence.
所以我不认为他们应该选择一位以人工智能为背景的领导者。
So I don't think they can choose somebody who comes from AI as their leader.
我的意思是，他们需要认真对待人工智能，并围绕它打造出色的产品。
I mean, I think they need to take it seriously and build great products around AI.
我认为这家公司的本质，始终会根植于硬件。
This company's DNA, I think, will always be rooted in hardware.
我认为这是他们的优势，为什么要去偏离这一点呢？
And I think that's that's their strength and why why move away from that.
很好。
Great.
好了，亚伦，感谢你前来做客。
Well, Aaron, I want to thank you for coming on.
我猜这个故事会变得更加精彩，我期待能再和你交谈，我们很快再见。
I suspect this story will get even more dynamic, so I look forward to talking with you more, and we'll see you soon.
谢谢。
Thank you.
尽管英伟达可能是人工智能热潮中无可争议的宠儿，但今年有一家芯片股的表现实际上超过了英伟达。
Well, NVIDIA may be the undisputed darling of the AI boom, but there is a chip stock that is actually outperforming NVIDIA this year.
博通的股价在2025年上涨了60%以上，几乎是英伟达涨幅的两倍。
Broadcom shares are up more than 60% in 2025, roughly double the gain that NVIDIA has had.
同时，它也逐渐被视为对英伟达主导地位的可信挑战者。
And it is also emerging as one of the companies that is seen as a credible challenger to NVIDIA's dominance.
本周末的深度报道不仅深入剖析了博通公司，还聚焦了带领公司前进的CEO——霍克·谭。
This weekend's big read is a deep dive, not just on Broadcom company, but also the man leading the charge, CEO, Hock Tan.
我想请我的同事杰米玛·麦克埃沃伊来为我们详细介绍她撰写的这篇报道。
And I wanna bring on my colleague, Jemima McEvoy, to tell us more about the piece that she wrote.
杰米玛，欢迎再次回到节目。
Jemima, welcome back to the show.
很高兴你来这里。
It's great to have you here.
一如既往，谢谢你们邀请我。
Thank you for having me as always.
我们来谈谈博通吧。
Let's talk about Broadcom.
你能解释一下博通具体制造什么样的芯片吗？
Can you explain what kind of chips exactly does Broadcom make?
嗯。
Yeah.
当然。
Of course.
那么，到目前为止，在人工智能建设中主要使用的是哪种芯片？
So, basically, what has been the main chip that has been used throughout the AI build out so far?
它被称为GPU。
It's called a GPU.
这是英伟达和AMD制造的芯片。
It's what NVIDIA and AMD make.
它基本上是一种非常灵活的芯片，可以用于各种不同的应用。
And it's basically a very flexible chip that you can use for anything, for for lots of different types of applications.
博通专注于一种名为ASIC的定制芯片。
Broadcom specializes in a custom chip that's known as an ASIC.
区别在于，ASIC的制造成本更低，但通常只针对单一应用进行编程，因此灵活性较低。
And the difference is it is cheaper to make, but it is generally only programmed to one application, so it's a lot less flexible.
随着AI基础设施建设进入下一阶段，我们对想要做什么有了更明确的认识。
So as the AI infrastructure build out has moved on to kind of its next stage, we're a little bit more we're we're a little bit more certain about what we wanna be doing.
由于成本效益更高，定制ASIC变得更具吸引力。
Custom ASICs have become a much more attractive option just because of their cost efficiency.
这些芯片不一定性能最强，但经过了定制，它们属于这样一类芯片：我们不需要最强大的，就够了。
So these are chips that are they're they're not as powerful necessarily, but they're customized, and they're they kinda fall under the camp of chips that it's it's like, well, you know, we don't need the most powerful thing.
我们只需要一种专为我们的运营设计的芯片。
We just need something that is specific to our operations.
它们实际上非常强大，只是针对特定任务进行了优化。
They actually are very powerful, but it's just geared towards that specific task.
所以
So
明白了。
Got it.
由于人工智能发展速度极快，很难承诺说我们永远都需要完成某项任务，因此在人工智能基础设施建设的这一后期阶段，出现了一定的转变。
Because of how quickly AI changes, it's kind of difficult to commit to you know, we know we're gonna want this task done forever, so that's why it's kind of been a bit of a transition in this later part of the AI build out.
那为什么它们被视为对英伟达的巨大威胁呢？
And and why are they seen as such a credible threat to NVIDIA?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，博通被视为对英伟达最有可能构成威胁的公司之一，首先是因为成本问题。
I mean, Broadcom is seen as probably one of the most credible threats to an NVIDIA because, a, there's the cost question.
这些芯片的价格，我觉得比英伟达的便宜大约30%到40%。
The chips are, you know, I think around 30 or 40% cheaper than NVIDIA's.
现在由于公司需要购买大量芯片，他们正在寻找其他选择，而博通是定制硅芯片的领军者。
Now since companies are needing to buy so many chips, they're looking for for other options, and Broadcom is the leader in custom silicon.
他们已经几十年都在制造定制硅芯片了。
They've been doing they've been making custom silicon for decades.
你知道，这家公司成立于1990年。
You know, the company was founded in 1990.
而且他们在这方面非常擅长。
And they're be really good at it.
他们的产品质量众所周知非常好。
And their the quality of their product is known to be really good.
所以，这就是他们成为最大挑战者的原因。
So that's, you know, that's kind of what makes them the the biggest challenger.
那我们来聊聊你所介绍的首席执行官哈克·谭。
So let's talk about Hak Tan, the CEO that that you profiled.
你对他是如何运营公司的细节描述得非常精彩。
You had a lot of great details about about how he's running the company.
关于他的领导风格和管理方式，最让你印象深刻的是什么？
What stood out to you about his leadership style and the way he's been managing things?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，哈克·谭是个非常果断的领导者，这大家都知道。
I mean, it's it's no secret that Hak Tan is a very you know, he's he's a pretty cutthroat leader.
他以收购公司并裁员一半而闻名。
He's been known to acquire companies and lay off, you know, half the employees.
这一点众所周知，但我真的想深入了解，这个人究竟是谁？
And and that that's been known, but I really wanted to drill into, you know, who is this guy?
他是如何将博通打造成今天的样子的？
How has he built Broadcom into what it is today?
而且，还有很多生动有趣的细节。
And there's, you know, lots of colorful things.
我的意思是，他极其狠辣。
I mean, he's extremely cutthroat.
他极其节俭。
He's extremely frugal.
你知道的？
You know?
博通的食堂里连汽水都没有。
No sodas in the cafeteria at at Broadcom.
没有商务舱航班。
There's no business class flights.
没有年终派对。
There's no holiday party.
连咖啡机都没有。
They don't even have espresso machines in there.
他收购软件公司威睿时，就把咖啡机都拆了。
He ripped them out when he bought VMware, the software company.
所以他们就像是在一个盒子里工作一样。
So they're just they're just working in in like a box, it seems.
他的理念是：我会给你很高的薪酬，但除此之外什么都不给，你得拼命工作。
And he his philosophy is I'm gonna pay you super well, and I'm not gonna give you anything else, and you're gonna work really hard.
这很有趣，因为这与英伟达的整体理念截然不同，英伟达是资助大量前沿项目。
And it's interesting because it's kind of different from the whole NVIDIA vision, which is, you know, funding a bunch of moonshots.
黄仁勋是个非常富有哲思的人，经常谈论人工智能。
Jensen Huang is this very, like, philosophical talking about AI.
霍克并不是不在乎人工智能，但他并不真正关心技术本身。
Hawk, he it's not that he doesn't care about AI, but he doesn't really care about the technology necessarily.
他只关心自己在意的事，而他擅长的就是从技术中赚钱。
He just cares about his what he cares about and what he's good at is making money out of technology.
去年九月的一场会议上，有人问他如何看待人工智能的未来和发展方向。
At a at a conference last in September, he was asked about, you know, what he thinks the future of AI is and where it's going.
他的回答是：我不是个鼓吹者。
And his response is, I'm not a cheerleader.
所以，这真是一个关于这位CEO的有趣案例，他管理公司的方式与当前行业内的其他领导者截然不同。
So it's it's really just an interesting case study of this CEO who is who is managing the company very differently than some of his peers that are leading in it now.
他担任CEO有多久了？
How long has he been CEO for?
他已经担任CEO二十年了。
He has been CEO for twenty years.
他于2005年接掌了博通的前身——安华高，然后在2015年收购了博通。
He took over the predecessor to Broadcom, which is called was called Avago in 2005, and then they bought Broadcom in 2015.
但是谁
But who
不过，这个故事最有趣的部分是，你提到他这种不讲废话的态度，但员工似乎并没有大量离职。
of the most interesting parts of the story, though, is that you talk about this no nonsense attitude, and yet people don't seem to be leaving the company.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我在文章中提到的一件事是，他们每季度会举办一次咖啡聊天，这实际上是博通对全员大会的叫法，霍克会在会上根据各部门创造的利润对其进行排名。
I mean, you would think I mean, one one thing that I describe in the story is they have a quarterly coffee chat, which is basically Broadcom speak for an all hands meeting where Hock, you know, ranks each department based on the amount of money they're making.
然后在页面三分之二或四分之三的位置有一条粗大的红色线条，这条线以下的部门都被视为表现不佳。
And then there's this big fat red line two thirds or three quarters the way down the page, and any department beneath that is considered to be underperforming.
而该部门的所有员工都会惊呼：天哪。
And all the employees in that department are like, oh my god.
我要被开除了，因为霍克以不讲情面著称，如果员工达不到他的标准，他就会解雇他们。
I'm gonna get fired because Hawk is known for not you know, he'll fire people if they're not performing up to his standards.
所以，是的，你可能会认为这种高压、充满压力的环境会让更多人离开。
So, yeah, you would think that kind of environment, it's a very stressful and pressure filled environment would turn more people away.
但事实上，这家公司的自愿离职率非常低。
But in fact, the company has a very low voluntary attrition rate.
几乎与英伟达持平。
It's pretty much in line with NVIDIA's.
低于3%。
It's under 3%.
所以，是的，这相当有趣。
So, yeah, that's pretty interesting.
员工告诉我，他们薪水太高了，根本不想走。
And it is it's you know, employees describe it to me as they get paid so well, they don't wanna leave.
对。
Right.
当你和公司圈内的人交谈时，他今年74岁了。
And when you talk to people in the company's orbit, he's 74 years old.
我们刚刚谈到了苹果的CEO蒂姆·库克，他比74岁年轻得多。
We we just talked about Tim Cook, the the CEO of Apple, who's much younger than than 74.
考虑到苹果的规模，人们已经在思考谁可能接替他了。
And already, I think given the scale that Apple is at, people are thinking about who might succeed him.
在博通的故事里，哈克·滕的接班人问题有被提及吗？
Has succession come up in the Broadcom story with Hawk Ten?
有。
Yes.
接班人问题确实被提出来了。
Succession has definitely come up.
我的意思是，正如你提到的，他已经74岁了。
I mean, as you mentioned, he's 74.
他比黄仁勋和苏姿丰都要年长。
He's older than Jensen Huang and Lisa Su.
而且你知道，最近博通的董事会已经将他的任期延长了两年。
And and, you know, he recently the the board of directors of Broadcom recently extended his his tenure, his contract by two years.
因此，他官方上至少会任职到2030年。
So he is officially going to be serving at least until 2030.
你知道，幕后有很多关于哈克·谭不再担任CEO后博通会如何发展的讨论，因为他几乎一手打造了这家公司。
You know, there's lots of talk behind the scenes about what happens to Broadcom after Hawk Tan is no longer the CEO because he essentially has built this company.
这和他接手时的情况完全不同。
It's completely different from when he took it over.
当时这家公司年收入只有16亿美元。
It was a $1,600,000,000 revenue company.
现在它的市值已接近2万亿美元。
Now it's a nearly $2,000,000,000,000 market cap company.
没有Hakten的领导，博通还能继续以同样的速度增长吗？
Can Broadcom, you know, continue to grow at the same rate without the leadership of Hakten?
你知道吗，我接触过一些在他身边的人，他们认为他永远不会退休，会一直干下去。
You know, some people I spoke with in his orbit orbit think that he will never retire, that he's gonna pull a and just keep on working forever.
但很难说未来会发生什么，不过看起来我们已经开始考虑继任计划，以及谁可能接任了。
But, you know, it's it's hard to say what's gonna happen, but it looks like we are beginning to think about succession planning and potentially who will take over.
而这个人很可能是半导体部门的负责人查理·卡瓦斯。
And that will likely be Charlie Kawas, the the leader of the, you know, semiconductor division.
那么，让我问你一个问题。
Well, so let let me ask you this.
你知道，你没能为这篇报道采访Hawk Tenet，虽然我知道你联系过他，但最终是否让高管接受采访，还是由公司决定的。
You know, you didn't have the chance to to to speak with Hawk Tenet for the story, although I know you reached out, and it's ultimately the company's decision if they wanna put the executive up for an interview or not.
但你已经和他身边那么多人谈过了。
But you talked to so many people in his orbit.
如果你真的能采访他，你会问他什么？
If you did have an interview with him, what might you want to ask him?
当然，我认为我们的观众会对这场正在进行的芯片大战的更多细节非常感兴趣。
Well, obviously, I think our audience would be super interested to hear some more nitty gritty on the the details of this, you know, the chip fight that's happening right now.
你知道的。
You know?
博通在定制芯片领域最大的竞争对手是美满电子。
Broadcom's biggest competitor in the custom chip space is Marvell.
对。
Right.
目前正发生着这样的竞争，
It's this competition happening right now where
你希望杰米玛最想知道的是什么？
What what what would you what would you wanna what what what would Jemima be most curious about?
我刚才说的就是，我们的观众最关心的也正是这个。
Well, that that's where I was getting is that's what our audience would be most care about curious about.
但对我来说，我真的很喜欢了解公司背后的人物故事。
But for me, I really love learning about the character behind, you know, the company.
霍克是个非常低调的人，因此不愿意接受采访。
And Hawk is a very private person, hence, not wanting to interview.
我觉得，你知道的，如果我们能更多地了解他的童年就好了，我们对此一无所知。
I think, you know, learning about his childhood a little bit more, we know nothing.
我们不知道他的父母是做什么的。
We know we don't know what his parents did.
我们不知道他成长的环境如何。
We don't know the circumstances of him growing up.
我在与人交谈时听到了很多不同的说法，但没有一个能被我证实。
I mean, I heard a lot of different tales from people as I spoke to them, but none of them I was able to confirm.
所以我很想听听他成长的经历，以及这些经历如何影响了他今天的成就。
So I would love to, you know, kinda hear about his experience growing up and how that impacted, you know, where he where he's gone to today.
对。
Right.
这是一个很棒的故事，我鼓励大家去读一读。
Well, it was a great story, and I encourage everyone to read it.
本周我们的周末深度阅读内容就是它。
It is our weekend big read this week.
谢米玛，非常感谢你来到节目。
Shemima, thank you so much for coming on.
这是谢米玛·麦克埃沃伊，我们《信息》周刊的周末记者。
That is Shemima McEvoy, our weekend reporter here at The Information.
好的。
Okay.
本周的新闻焦点集中在OpenAI与谷歌日益加剧的竞争上，萨姆·阿尔特曼已发出红色警报，随着Gemini 3的发布，硅谷开始质疑ChatGPT的主导地位是否正在动摇。
This week's news cycle has been dominated by the escalating OpenAI Google rivalry, with Sam Altman declaring a code red as Gemini three raises new questions in Silicon Valley about whether ChatGPT's dominance is beginning to slip.
我们将在本周的《编辑精选》节目中，与主编杰西卡·莱森和执行主编劳拉·门德罗一起探讨这一切。
We wanna discuss all this on this week's Editor's Cut with our editor in chief Jessica Lesson and managing editor Laura Mendero.
以下是他们的对话。
Here is that conversation.
杰西卡和劳拉，欢迎来到节目。
Jessica and Laura, welcome to the show.
很高兴你来这里。
It's great to have you here.
谢谢，阿卡什。
Thanks Akash.
嗨，阿卡什。
Hi Akash.
劳拉，你知道吗？尽管我们已经做了100期节目，但这是你第一次上节目。
Laura, you know, if you could believe it, we've done a 100 episodes and this is your first time on the show.
太棒了。
Amazing.
天哪。
Oh my God.
我很高兴你们两位都能来。
Well, I'm excited to have both of you here.
这周新闻很多。
It was a busy week of news.
我想先聊聊OpenAI的Code Red事件，这件事在新闻中仍在持续发酵。
I want to start by unpacking a little bit the OpenAI Code Red stuff, which we're still seeing play out in the news cycle.
这周我们当然也听到了Dario的一些评论。
We obviously had some comments from Dario this week as well.
我想从OpenAI的投资者角度开始讨论，因为我一直在思考，面对这些消息，他们心里会怎么想。
And where I want to start the conversation is actually with the investors of OpenAI, because I've been thinking a lot about what they must be thinking with this news.
杰西卡，我想知道你对此有什么看法。
Jessica, I wonder what your thought is here.
你从这个群体那里听到了什么反应？
What are you hearing from that group?
如果你已经是OpenAI的内部人员，那你肯定是信徒。
So if I think if you're in OpenAI already, you're a believer.
你看着OpenAI，会觉得这是历史上增长最快的企业，这家公司一定会获得融资。
And you're looking at OpenAI and you're saying fastest growing business in history, this company will get funded.
一切都会好起来的。
It's all gonna be great.
我觉得过去几天我听到的是，那些持观望态度的人在说：‘哎呀，这事儿会往哪个方向发展？’
I think what I'm hearing over the last couple days is the people who are on the sidelines saying, uh-oh, you know, which way is this going?
我们显然看到了惊人的增长。
We've obviously seen incredible growth.
我们看到这家公司抓住了机遇，但正是他们指出了竞争的存在。
We have seen this company meet the moment, but, you know, they're the ones pointing out the competition.
注意力是否过于分散了？
Is the attention too fragmented?
算力承诺的情况如何？
What's going on with the compute commit?
这家公司一直颇具争议，我认为现在尤其如此。
So it's always been a polarizing company, and I think it's especially a polarizing company right now.
好的。
Okay.
劳拉，杰西卡在谈论那些不在OpenAI内部的人。
Laura, Jessica is talking about the people who are not in OpenAI.
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你知道，OpenAI 依赖着一群人在未来几年持续为它提供资金支持。
You know, there is a group that OpenAI is relying on to keep this funding going for, you know, for for years to come here.
我的意思是，我们已经多次讨论过他们的现金流预测，或者说是缺乏现金流预测。
I mean, we've talked a lot about their their cash flow projections or lack thereof.
我的意思是，你认为这会给他们筹集资金带来任何风险吗？
I mean, does this pose a risk at all for them being able to raise this money, do you think?
我的意思是，回顾过去几年我们报道过的所有融资轮次，市场需求从未短缺。
I mean, I think that with all the rounds that we reported on over the last couple of years, there's been no shortage of demand.
事实上，通常需求还更多。
In fact, generally there's more.
融资规模在不断上升。
Round size goes up.
你在私募股权的二次销售中也能看到这一点。
You see it also for the tenders, the secondary sales.
我认为，我们曾报道过这些 SPV，也就是专门面向散户投资者设计的工具。
And I think, you know, we've reported on these SPVs, which are these vehicles designed to get like retail investors.
因此，从这些报道中，我所能了解到的是，家族办公室和机构对参与这些AI热潮中的知名公司投资仍有巨大需求。
So all I can tell from this reporting is that there's still huge demand from family offices and institutions that didn't get to get into some of these rounds for like the name brand logo of the AI boom.
但对于那些最终需要看到回报、需要从这些投资中获得现金的大型养老基金来说，情况则不同。
But, you know, for the very big pension funds that at the end of the day need to see a return and they need to see cash from these investments.
我认为，它们正在密切关注一切，仔细观察英伟达、微软等主要公司关于AI需求的信号，以及这些需求是否真的有前景。
They are, you know, watching, I think, everything closely, and they're looking at the, you know, indications from the major companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft about AI demand and if that's going anywhere.
它们希望确认这将是一项真正的投资。
And they and they wanna know that this is gonna be a real investment.
我的意思是，到目前为止，如果你几年前就投资了，账面上确实有增值，但如果你还没意识到可能存在泡沫，那简直是视而不见。
I mean, so far, if you invested a couple years ago, there's a paper markup, but, you know, you'd have to kind of be living under a rock to not worry that there is a bubble.
如果你现在以5000亿美元的估值进入，也就是上一轮融资或要约收购的价格，那么这个估值还需要上涨多少，你才能实现双倍回报？
And if you're coming in at 500,000,000,000, which was the the price of the last round Yeah.
或者说是要约收购的价格，你知道，这个估值还需要上涨多少，你才能实现双倍投资回报？
Or the the tender offer, you know, how much more does that valuation have to go up for you to get even double your investment?
所以我认为确实存在疑问，但在我看来，它们似乎仍然能够成功融资。
So I think there's questions, but it doesn't seem to me that they won't be able to raise.
对。
Right.
显然，如果一家公司同时以两种不同的估值完成融资，这可能意味着某些问题。
There's obviously the notion that if there's a company that is able to fundraise at two different valuations at the same time, well, maybe that signals something.
杰西卡，我想知道你对达里奥本周的评论有什么看法。
Jessica, I'm curious what you made of Dario's comments this week.
根据我们的报道，我们已经实证表明，Anthropic公司管理得更加严谨。
From our reporting, we've shown empirically that Anthropic is running a tighter ship.
但同时，从达里奥和达尼ela如何引导他们野心的角度来看，感觉也是如此。
But also, it feels like on the ground in the way that Dario and Daniela have steered their ambitions.
他们的目标更狭窄，也更专注。
They're a little narrower, a little more focused.
萨姆·阿尔特曼本周有新闻称，他甚至可能在考虑涉足火箭公司，对吧？
Sam Altman, I mean, had the news this week that, you know, he might be even be looking at a rocket company in some cases, right?
这则报道刚刚发布。
That was a report that came out.
谈谈这里的领导风格对比，以及你最终认为哪种风格更适合这样的公司。
Like, talk about the the contrasting leadership styles here and which one you ultimately think is better for a company like this.
让我印象最深的是达里奥在交易簿访谈中的表现，我认为他正在不断成长为一名真正的首席执行官。
Well, what stood out to me with Dario's deal book interview was actually, I think, how he's continuing to grow into the CEO role.
我的意思是，达里奥是个非常聪明的人。
Mean, Dario is a I mean, he's a wonderfully brilliant guy.
回顾他过去几年的公开演讲，我的第一印象是，他真的进入状态了。
And just seeing his public speaking over the last several years, my first takeaway was, you know, he he's feeling it.
对吧？
Right?
他表现得非常自在。
He's very comfortable.
我觉得他在那次访谈中非常有说服力。
He, I thought was very compelling in that interview.
他看起来更加自信了，完全没错。
He seems more confident when you Totally.
他在那次采访中完全掌控了全场。
He he was own I mean, he was owning the stage in that interview.
而且，如果你的收入在过去三年里增长了十倍，你就应该自信地站出来，展现自己。
And, again, if your revenue's grown 10 x for three years, you should own it, and you should take the stage.
但我觉得这很值得注意，因为他并不总是最自然的公众演讲者，也不擅长表达。
But I I think it's notable because he's not always been the most natural public speaker or the national in talking.
他一直很自然地谈论宏大的愿景，但这次他显得非常从容。
He he's always been natural talking about the grand sort of vision, but but, he felt very comfortable.
我认为这反映了公司当前的状况，以及Anthropos的专注程度。
And I think that is a reflection of the state of the business in the moment, the state of, Anthropix relative focus.
顺便说一句，他离开Altman和OpenAI是有原因的。
And made by mistake, I mean, he left Altman and OpenAI for a reason.
我的意思是，他确实如此。
I mean, he has.
这两个人和这两家公司之间存在着非常激烈的竞争。
There is a very, very fierce rivalry between those two individuals and those two companies.
你知道，在达里奥看来，原因在于他对AI如何构建以及相关的伦理和责任有更深入的理解。
You know, the reason being in Dario's estimation, you know, much more of how AI is getting built and the ethics and responsibility around it.
但说实话，我认为我们看到的只是他真正对这一情况感受的冰山一角。
But I think we're seeing just the tip of the iceberg, to be honest, of what he really feels about the situation.
而且，你知道，Anthropic明年在业务势头和专注度方面有很多优势。
And, you know, Anthropic has a lot going for it into next year with the business momentum, with the focus.
我们也不能忽视更大的宏观担忧。
Let's not forget the big picture concerns as well.
你知道，他们需要持续的商业采用。
You know, they need continued business adoption.
他们还需要继续从越来越多的合作伙伴那里筹集资金，以推动这一进程，前提是不专注于消费市场。
They need to continue to be able to fundraise from a growing number of partners to fuel this, you know, by not being focused on the consumer market.
我认为这在很多方面是他们的一大优势。
I think that's a huge advantage for them in many ways.
但笼罩整个行业的重大问题也同样悬在他们头上。
But the big questions that hang over the industry also hang over and drop it.
对。
Right.
劳里，你要说点什么吗？
Laurie, you're gonna say something?
嗯。
Yeah.
我的意思是，我们很容易只关注Anthropic和OpenAI。
Well, I mean, I was just gonna say, I mean, we it's easy to sort of focus on Anthropic and OpenAI.
我想说清楚。
And I wanna be clear.
据我所知，OpenAI并没有尝试以两种不同的估值进行融资，这是绝对不行的。
OpenAI, far as I know, did not try to raise at two different valuations, which is a no no.
但你知道，还有数百家其他AI初创公司。
But but the you know, there's there's hundreds of other AI startups.
某种程度上，我们几乎从ChatGPT发布以来就一直在报道这件事。
And in a way, we've been writing about this almost since the launch of ChatGPT.
有些初创公司能够持续以越来越高的估值融资，有些甚至比预期更快地寻求退出。
There's some startups can keep raising at higher and higher valuations and some almost faster than you'd expect look for an exit.
我们看到了一波又一波的收购式招聘，或者说是反向收购式招聘，我认为这是一种转折点。
And, you know, we saw these waves of aqua hire as like or reverse aqua hires, I think, like inflection.
我认为，过去几个月里兴起的那种恐惧情绪，似乎并不像几年前利率飙升后我们所看到的那种全面崩溃和重置。
And I think that fearful sentiment of the kind that's really risen up in the last couple months, it doesn't seem like, you know, a crash reset of the same way that we saw after interest rates spiked a couple years ago.
但我确实认为，如果你是一家中型初创公司，并且正在成长，你可能会有动力在大门关闭之前再融资一轮。
But I do think, you know, if you are a mid sized startup and, you know, are growing, you may be incentivized to raise one more round of capital now before, you know, before the gates shut.
因此，我们预计在事情结束之前，市场会一直保持繁忙。
And so, you know, we are expecting that things are going to stay busy until it's over.
甚至可能还会更热闹一些。
And and even maybe a little bit more.
我的意思是，似乎这些初创公司并不急需这些资金。
Mean, it doesn't seem like some of these startups need that that cash right away.
它们一直非常活跃，但可能不想冒这个风险。
They've been so active, but they might, you know, not want to risk it.
杰西卡，我想回到你这里，因为你这周为我们的高级订阅用户主持了预测研讨会。
Jessica, I wanna come back to you because you you hosted your your predictions webinar this week for our pro subscribers.
你知道，你谈到了当前风险投资领域的氛围。
And, you know, you talked a little bit about the vibe in venture capital land right now.
这是我们之前在节目中讨论过的话题。
And it's a conversation we had on the show.
我们曾讨论过DPI，你看PitchBook的数据，风险投资基金的融资额仍处于十年来的低点，或者至少如果趋势持续下去，正朝着这个方向发展；但我觉得，现在我们不像六个月前那样频繁听到关于DPI的讨论了。
You know, we were talking about DPI and the idea that the, I mean, you look at the data from PitchBook, you know, a fundraising is still at a 10 low for these venture capital funds or at least it's trending towards that if if the trend continues And yet I feel like we don't hear that much about DPI in the conversation anymore the way we did six months ago.
如今，VC们的感觉如何？
What's what's the vibe among BCs these days?
是的。
Yeah.
我正陷入所谓的‘氛围报道’，这其实是我最不喜欢做的事。
I'm falling victim to vibe reporting, which is sort of my my least favorite thing to do.
但没错，是的。
But, yes, I yeah.
他们确实这么做了。
They do it.
我的意思是，真正脱颖而出的赢家正在出现。
I mean, I think what there are just real winners emerging.
我说的不是OpenAI和Anthropic这样的公司。
And I'm not talking about the OpenAI's and Anthropics.
我说的是Cursors、Polymarket这些公司等等。
I'm talking about the cursors and the and polymarkets and and all of that.
对吧？
Right?
而且，我认为这只是一个微调。
And I again, this is not I I I I think it's a sort of micro adjustment.
悬而未决的大问题是：这些基金将如何返还资本？
The big question hanging over is, like, how are these funds going to return capital?
我们已经看到了更多的并购。
You know, we we've seen more m and a.
我们看到一些IPO增多，但还没看到闸门真正、真正大开。
We've seen a little more IPOs, but we're we're not seeing, you know, the floodgates really, really open yet.
但与此同时，现在有些基金账面上有了十倍的回报，这是我们以前很少见到的。
But at the same time, you have funds that now on their books have 10 x funds that, you know, we hadn't seen a lot of before.
所以我认为，风险投资者们又开始有了一点乐观情绪。
So I I think there's there's optimism a little bit among VCs again.
我的意思是，加密货币领域正在发生的事情与此背道而驰，让它们此刻略显悲观，但我注意到，从这里的消息来源来看，比如我刚收到的基金回报，看起来相当不错。
I mean, the what's happening in crypto is sort of cutting against that and making them a little bit gloomy in the moment, but I'm struck, like and and from sources here, things like, you know, I just got this funds returns and, like, they look pretty good.
这种话我已经很久没听到了。
So haven't heard that in a while.
所以，劳拉，如果我们转向你，我想知道，当你思考这个问题时，你对团队提出了哪些报告方面的问题。
And so, Laura, if we come to you, I am curious around the reporting questions that that you have for your team as you think about this issue.
我的意思是，你的团队也密切关注二级市场。
I mean, your team also follows the secondaries market pretty closely.
在实际操作中，你最想弄清楚的大问题是什么？
What are the big questions that you're trying to figure out on the ground?
嗯，这与其说是个问题，不如说是一个趋势，我觉得挺有意思的。
Well, I mean, it's not a question as much of a theme, and I think it's interesting.
你知道，你创立风投基金的时间点，很大程度上决定了这些回报是否会看起来不错。
You know, I think when you started your venture fund says a lot about whether these returns are going to look good or not.
如果你是在疫情前刚起步，那你们大概率不会在2021年实现IPO，对吧？
If you started, you know, right before this the pandemic, you know, you're not probably having an IPO at 2021, right?
如果是早期到中期的基金的话。
If it's an early to mid stage fund.
所以你就错过了这波浪潮。
So you kinda miss that wave.
正如杰西卡所指出的，IPO的大门还没有打开。
As Jessica noted, the IPO floodgates have not opened up.
所以现在处境挺艰难的。
So it's it's hard going.
很多基金手里都握着SaaS公司，但说实话，它们的退出路径并不明确。
A lot of funds are sitting on SaaS companies that are you know, they they don't it's not really clear what the exit is.
还不清楚是否会变成私募股权。
It's not clear if it's gonna be PE.
我的意思是，私募股权实际上也持有大量这类企业软件公司，它们增长并不快，现在面临被人工智能取代的巨大风险。
I mean, PE actually also has a lot of these enterprise software companies that are just not growing that fast, and they're now really at risk of AI.
它们不是人工智能公司。
They're not AI companies.
所以我认为，对记者来说，这并不那么吸引人，因为这个主题一直在持续不断。
So I think I mean, it's not as exciting for journalists because it's a theme that just keeps going on and on.
但我认为，未来几年的一个大问题是，这些初创公司会怎样？
But I think a big question there is a question over the next couple of years is what happens to all these startups?
对吧？
Right?
有成百上千家这样的公司筹集了大量风险资本。
There's hundreds and hundreds of them that raise a lot of venture capital.
它们并不是说没有收入。
They're not you know, they're they're they have revenue.
他们可能甚至接近现金流平衡，但他们的增长速度和规模还不足以支持上市。
They may even be getting close to cash flow, but they're not growing at the the rate and and at the the size that would make for a public offering.
而且买家也值得怀疑。
And the the buyers are also questionable.
我的意思是，我们刚报道了ServiceNow的消息，它是一家传统的
I mean, if you are we just broke news on ServiceNow, which is a, you know, a legacy
对。
Right.
软件公司，你知道的。
Software company, as you know.
而且我觉得他们并不打算收购那些所谓的前AI时代的企业软件公司，他们更想要那些真正有AI布局的公司。
And they're not I don't don't don't get the sense that they're in the market for a, you know, pre AI enterprise software company to to well, then they want the AI companies or the companies that have, like, a real AI play.
所以市场对那些具有真正强大AI特性或功能的公司是有需求的。
So there's a demand for the companies with AI, you know, a a real strong AI characteristic or feature.
但这样的公司实在太多了。
But, you know, there's just so many of them.
我觉得，你知道，我还没完全搞清楚，有各种各样的想法，我甚至都没真正弄明白这么多公司的退出路径是什么。
I think, you know, I haven't there's various ideas and I just haven't even like really discovered what the exit is for so many of them.
而且，正如你所说，更可能的现实是，他们直接去挖人才，比如，如果你在一家前AI公司工作，或者你是个研究员，别管公司了，我们会给你一大笔薪酬，来帮我们吧。
Well, and to your point, I mean, the more likely reality is they just go after the talent directly and say, you know, if you're working at one of these pre AI companies or you're a researcher, I mean, forget the company, you know, we'll just give you a big pay package and come help us.
这可能是更有可能的情况。
That's probably the more likely
也许吧。
you'll Maybe.
但我的意思是，现在这些人才争夺战本质上都是围绕AI展开的。
Come But I mean, those talent wars are really about AI right now.
我的意思是，很多SaaS公司确实有软件工程师，但他们更缺的是市场推广人才。
I mean and I think a lot of SaaS companies, yes, they have like software engineers, but they have a lot of go to market.
我认为，人们会像以往每次繁荣与萧条周期中那样，频繁换工作。
I mean, I think people are gonna be changing jobs just like we saw in every kind of boom and bust cycle.
只是这一次时间稍微拉长了，因为这些公司还没真正起来。
It's just this one's a little bit elongated because these companies are not.
它们并没有那么资本密集，所以还能继续撑下去。
They weren't so capital intensive that they can't keep going.
它们是软件公司。
They're software companies.
对。
Right.
所以它们的生存周期更长，但也没有在增长。
And so they have a longer ride out, but they're also not growing.
而且，过去我可能会觉得这是私募股权的机会，但我觉得现在私募股权并不具备这样的能力。
And I you know, in the past, I would maybe have been a PE play, but I don't think PE is in in the position to
没错。
just Right.
把它们全部收购整合起来。
Snap them set them all up.
太好了。
So Great.
首先，感谢你们两位的到来。
Well, I wanna thank you both for coming on.
这周很忙，我敢肯定下周也会一样忙碌。
It was a busy week, and I'm sure next week will be just as busy.
劳拉，我不会让你再过一百期才回来参加我们的节目。
And, Laura, I will not let you go another 100 episodes until you join us again.
我会尽快再邀请你回来。
Gonna bring you back on sooner than that.
谢谢你们两位。
Thank you to you both.
非常感谢，我们很快再和你们聊。
Really appreciate it, and we will talk to you both very soon.
这是主编杰西卡·莱森和执行主编劳拉·曼德罗。
That was editor in chief Jessica Lesson with managing editor Laura Mandero.
Dude Perfect 是YouTube上最知名的品牌之一。
Dude Perfect is one of the best known names on YouTube.
它的主频道在YouTube上拥有6180万订阅者，这个最初以特技投篮为主的频道，如今已发展成一家现代媒体企业，去年获得了高蒙资本一亿美元的投资。
Its main channel has 61,800,000 subscribers that is on YouTube alone and what started as a trick shots channel has turned into a modern media business that last year scored an investment of a $100,000,000 from Highmount Capital.
因此，我想邀请Dude Perfect的首席执行官安德鲁·亚菲来谈谈他对公司未来的规划。
And so I wanna bring on Dude Perfect CEO, Andrew Andrew Yaffe, to talk about where he is looking to take the company.
安德鲁，欢迎来到节目。
Andrew, welcome to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
非常感谢你们邀请我。
Thanks so much for having me.
很感激。
Appreciate it.
我很期待聊聊Dude Perfect的方方面面，但我想先听听你的看法。
I'm excited to talk about all things Dude Perfect, but I do want to get your take.
今天我们早上看到一个大新闻，Netflix同意收购华纳兄弟探索公司。
We saw this big deal this morning, Netflix agreeing to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
你身处新媒体领域。
You're in the land of new media.
从某种意义上说，这是一笔非常传统的媒体交易。
This is a very old media deal in some ways.
你对此有什么反应或想法吗？
Did you have any reactions or thoughts to it?
我一直在关注这件事，就像许多其他消费者和感兴趣的观察者一样。
You know, I I was following it along, I think, just as a as a consumer and interested observer like so many others.
我最主要的想法是，这标志着优质IP的价值，即使商业模式和分发方式发生变化，能够与高价值受众产生共鸣的IP依然具有真正的重大价值。
I think my my main thought is what it signals about the value of premium high quality IP, and how that even as business models change, even as distribution changes, there's real meaningful value in IP that connects with high value audiences.
我们很幸运，认为自己以一种非常不同的方式在运作。
And we're we're privileged that we think, you know, in a very different way.
我们在那个IP生态系统中扮演着一定的角色。
We we play a role in that IP ecosystem.
因此，我们对这一趋势的发展感到兴奋，但主要还是以观察者的身份关注。
So that's we're excited to see it play out, but mostly interested as an observer.
对。
Right.
那我们来聊聊Dude Perfect这个商业项目吧。
Well, let's talk about Dude Perfect the business.
我的意思是，人们都知道这个YouTube频道。
I mean, look, people know the YouTube channel.
你能给我们介绍一下你们所涉及的不同业务板块和类别吗？
Can you walk us through the different segments and categories of the businesses that you play in?
当然可以。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
正如你所说，这几位在2009年几乎是在无意中创建了这个YouTube频道。
So as you said, the guys started a YouTube channel almost accidentally in 2009.
他们是最早一批大型YouTube品牌之一。
They were, one of the first big YouTube, brands.
在过去大约十六年里，逐渐积累了一批粉丝。
Slowly built a following, over the last oh, now sixteen years.
到目前为止，我们已经打造了一个真正多元化的媒体业务。
And at this point, we've got a a really truly diversified media business.
YouTube 仍然是业务的核心，但每年夏天我们都会举办一场现场巡演。
YouTube is still the core of the business, but every summer, we do a live tour.
去年夏天，我们在二十多个城市举办了演出，接近二十五万人观看了我们的现场表演，这是一次令人惊叹的体验，明年夏天我们还会继续举办。
So last summer, we were in over 20 cities, had close to a quarter of a million people come to our live shows, which was just an amazing experience, and we're doing it again next summer.
我们的周边商品和产品业务也非常兴旺，包括服装、玩具、消费品等。
We've got a thriving merchandise and products business, apparel, toys, consumer products, more.
我们正在推出其他媒体平台。
And we're launching other media platforms.
我的意思是，虽然大家普遍把我们视为一个YouTube品牌，但我们在其他社交媒体平台上还有五千万以上的粉丝和订阅者。
Mean, our social media where, you know, everyone thinks of us as a YouTube brand, but we've got another 50 plus million followers and subscribers across the rest of the social media ecosystem.
我们最近推出了一档播客，表现相当不错。
We recently launched a podcast that is doing quite well.
在未来几周，我们还将推出更多频道。
We're launching more channels over the coming weeks as well.
所以我认为，很快我们就会成为一个完全成熟的媒体公司。
So I think you'll see us be a a fully scaled media company in short order.
如果你想想收入的来源，能不能为我们详细分解一下？
And and if you think about where the revenue is coming from, it it is you know, break that down for us.
大部分收入还是来自频道本身的广告或合作吗？
Is it is most of the revenue still coming from advertisements or partnerships on the on the channel itself?
或者，你知道的，这个收入结构是怎样的？
Or, you know, how does that break down?
是的。
Yeah.
我大约一年半前加入Dude Perfect，之前我在国家篮球协会工作。
You know, I I joined Dude Perfect about eighteen months ago, and I I came from the National Basketball Association.
因此，我是以体育球队的方式来思考这个业务的，我们拥有像NBA球队一样的所有收入渠道。
And so the way I think about the business is is more like a a sports franchise where we have all the same revenue streams that, you know, an NBA team might have.
对。
Right.
所以内容和我们的YouTube广告业务非常重要。
So content and our, you know, YouTube advertising business is is meaningful.
我们的现场门票是我们收入构成中极其重要的部分。
Our live tickets is an is an incredibly meaningful component of our of our revenue pie.
还有品牌合作伙伴。
And brand partners.
这些品牌合作伙伴不仅出现在我们的YouTube频道中，也出现在我们的巡演中。
And those brand partners certainly are present in our YouTube, but they're also present in our tour.
我们在总部为品牌合作伙伴设置了实实在在的场边广告牌。
We've got literally courtside signage at our headquarter for our brand partners.
我现在喝的是Body Armor。
I'm here drinking a a Body Armor.
我不知道你能不能看到。
I don't know if you can see that.
我们看到了下半部分。
We saw we saw the we saw the bottom half.
所以我们至少看到了标志。
So we we saw the logo at least.
重要的部分。
Part that matters.
我们的官方补水合作伙伴。
Our official hydration partner.
是的。
Yeah.
一个团队或联盟通常会有一个官方的饮料品牌。
Just a team or a league would have an official, you know, beverage.
而且你看。
And and look.
去年当你们进行大规模融资时，有报道称你们去年的收入有望突破5000万美元。
There were reports last year when when you guys were doing this big funding round that you were on track to cross $50,000,000 in revenue last year.
你们最终达成那个目标了吗？
Did you guys end up reaching that goal?
今年你们的业绩趋势如何？
What are you trending towards this year?
是的。
Yeah.
我们不会透露具体细节，但业务表现非常好，而且增长非常迅速。
We, you know, we don't get into specifics, but the business is doing very well, and we're growing quite rapidly.
对。
Right.
而且我们现在的目标远超那个数字，并面向未来持续发展。
And are looking to be, you know, well above that now and into the future.
我想聊聊作为CEO你需要考虑的一些问题。
So I want to talk about, you know, some of the considerations you have to make as CEO.
本周早些时候，我参加了由纽约时报主办的Deal Book峰会，见到了MrBeast。
We were I was at the the deal book summit that had mister Beast, the New York Times hosted earlier this week.
他们正在讨论MrBeast制作的单个视频的经济模式。
They were talking about the economics of a single video that mister Beast produces.
他当然以在单集上投入巨资而闻名，花费数百万美元。
And he's, of course, known to spend heavily on single episodes, millions and millions of dollars.
我想知道，作为CEO，你们制作这些视频时，
I wonder as CEO, you know, you guys put out these videos.
会不会做单位经济效益分析，比如，
Do you do sort of a unit economic analysis on, hey.
这个视频本身必须实现盈利。
You know, this video alone needs to be profitable.
你们的每个视频本身都是盈利的吗？
Is every video itself profitable for you?
还是更倾向于将其视为长期投资？
Or do you think about it more as, you know, sort of a long term investment?
我们有这个预算。
We have this budget.
我们将在未来六个月投资制作这么多视频。
We're going to invest in this many videos over the next six months.
你是怎么看待这一点的呢？
How do you sort of think about that?
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，我们很幸运，不需要把每个单独的视频都视为必须盈利或自给自足。
You know, I think we're in the fortunate position where we don't need to think of each individual individual unit as needing to be profitable or to fund itself.
这当然很好。
It's always nice.
但最终，我们考虑的是整个业务，我经常阅读吉米的演讲内容。
But, ultimately, you know, we think of the business, and I I, you know, read a lot about, Jimmy's talk.
我认为在很多方面，YouTube 作为我们业务的核心，实际上是我们品牌营销的引擎。
I think it's important in that in many ways, YouTube as the core of our business really is our brand marketing engine.
因此，投资视频、投资优质内容、与观众建立联系，其目的不仅是产生直接收入。
And so investing in videos, investing in great content, connecting with our audience, that serves a purpose of, yes, it generates direct revenue.
但更重要的是，它让我们与对我们的品牌感兴趣、希望看到更多我们内容的观众建立联系。
But probably more importantly, it connects us with audience that's interested in our brand that wants more content from us.
随着我们扩展业务的其他部分，我们可以向这些观众推广更多的产品、服务以及额外的机会，比如我们的现场巡演——你知道，我们并不需要从视频本身获取全部利润。
And as we scale the other parts of our business, we can then reach that audience with additional products, additional services, additional opportunities like our live tour where, you know, we don't need to make, all of our profits from the video itself.
它真正帮助我们扩展了业务的其他部分。
It really enables us to to scale the rest of our business.
我想向你了解一下你作为CEO的产品开发流程，因为这个节目主要聚焦科技公司。
And I I wanna ask you a little bit about your product development process as CEO because this show is largely about tech companies.
许多科技公司的起步方式是：你先发现一个想要解决的问题，然后开发某种产品来解决它。
And a lot of the way that tech companies start is you identify a problem that you wanna solve and you build some sort of a product to solve that problem.
创作者经济有点特别，因为内容在某种程度上最初是娱乐性质的，然后你必须思考可以将品牌延伸到哪些领域，哪些产品是合适的。
The creator economy is kind of interesting because with content in some ways, I mean, it starts out as entertainment, and then you kind of have to figure out what you can extend your brand to and what products would would make sense.
所以，我有点不清楚这个产品开发流程具体是怎样的，你们在做哪些研究。
And so I guess I'm sort of less clear on what that product development process looks like and what research you're doing.
这当然也是你最关注的问题。
And that's certainly top of mind for you.
你现在正打算拓展到不同的品类。
You're looking to expand now into different categories.
你们是如何进行这项研究的？
How do you do that research?
你们在实地进行哪些对话？你们如何思考新产品？
What conversations are you having on the ground, and how do you think about new products?
是的。
Yeah.
这是个很好的问题。
It's a great question.
我的意思是，我认为我们在很多方面都经历了非常相似的过程。
I mean, I think I think we do go through a very similar process in a lot of different ways.
一方面，在内容方面，当我们讨论新渠道或新机会时，我们会思考哪里存在需求？
One is within content, we look at as we're one as we're debating new channels or new opportunities, where do we think there's a a need?
我们会与观众交流。
And we talk to our audience.
我们进行交流、观察，看看市场上还有什么其他东西，并试图找出系统中的空白，我们认为我们的品牌和理念能够为此提供价值。
We talk we observe, what else is out there, and we try to set figure out where's the gap in the system, that that we think our brand and our ethos can can bring something to the table.
在消费品方面，情况也是如此。
And then the same thing is true in terms of consumer products.
我们不想推出一个跟风的产品，你知道的，那种已经存在的第二款产品。
We're we don't wanna launch a me too, you know, a sort of second product that has already been out there.
我们所做的每一件事，都力求创新、差异化，真正解决消费者的问题。
Everything we do, we try to be innovative and differentiated and really do solve a consumer problem.
我们认为，比如我们的现场巡演就是一个例子，人们希望为孩子找到家庭友好、有趣的现场体验。
And we think, you know, as our live tour is an example, people wanna find family friendly, fun experiences live experiences for their kids.
这一点已经被证明是正确的。
And that's been proven correct.
我们认为，在更可扩展的方式上，还有更多这样的机会。
And we think there's a lot more opportunity to do that in a more scalable way.
这是一个我们将其视为问题领域的方向。
And that's an area that, you know, we look at that as a problem space.
那么，我们可以使用哪些工具、资源和投资来为当前这个问题带来更多产品？
And then what are the tools, assets, investments we can make to bring additional products to bear in that in that problem today?
这正是我们目前正在积极思考的问题。
So that's something we're actively going through right now.
因此，在这个范围内，我认为你们必须做出的最引人入胜的决定之一就是：不做什么？
And so in that orbit, I think one of the most fascinating decisions that you have to make is what don't you do?
能跟我们说说那些我们预期Dude Perfect不会去追求的想法吗？
Tell us about some of the ideas that we should expect Dude Perfect to not pursue.
我说的是那些存在于……你知道的，那些
I'm talking about the ideas that are in the the, you know, the
嗯，有很多
Well, there are
也许不是回收箱，而是我们不会做的那个箱子。
Maybe not the recycling bin, but the we're not doing this bin.
有很多。
There there are a lot.
当我十八个月前开始时，两位创始人给我列了一份超过一百个想法的清单。
We've you know, when I started eighteen months ago, two of the founders came to me with a list of over a 100 ideas to consider.
比如，有哪些特别疯狂的想法？
Like, what what were some of the out like, the craziest ones?
你知道的，有些是我们不打算推进的想法。
Come you know, they're, some of the ones that we're not pursuing.
有些是很好的生意，但我们觉得并不适合我们。
There was great businesses out there that we just don't think they're a fit for us.
比如，在儿童理发领域，我们曾考虑过，但认为这不符合我们的定位，当然。
In the youth haircut space, as an example, is one that we looked at, but we don't think is a fit for our scope Sure.
能力。
Capabilities.
不过，我们确实认为，我们的品牌在家庭友好、体育导向、竞争性和热情方面有很多可能性。
We really do think, though, there are a lot of ways that our brand is family friendly, sports focused, competitive, passionate.
可选择的方向很多，但要优先确定哪些事要做、哪些事不做，并不容易。
There are there are a lot of places to play, and it is not an easy exercise to prioritize which things we do and which things we don't do.
还有其他你们完全放弃的有趣点子吗？
Any any other fun ideas that that that you've discarded entirely?
我们喜欢把这些点子保密。
We like to keep those close to the vest.
你永远不知道。
You never know.
嗯。
Yeah.
你永远不知道。
You never know.
它们可能会卷土重来。
They could be coming back.
商业环境变化很快。
The business landscape changes quickly.
所以
So
所以三年后，你希望杜德完美这个品牌在业务上达到什么程度？
So three years from now, where where do you hope Dude Perfect is as a business?
你知道，我们这里最常提到的词就是‘扩展’。
You know, I think the number one word we say all the time here is scale.
所以我认为，我们要做的是如何构建——我相信我们会建立起多个真正可扩展的新业务线。
So I think it is how do we build I think we'll have built multiple new business lines that are truly scalable.
对。
Right.
看看吉米和野兽企业是怎么做巧克力棒的，现在他又进军手机和蒸汽乐园了。
Look at what Jimmy and the and the Beast Enterprises built in terms of chocolate bars, and now he's going into phones and mortgage Steam parks.
蒸汽乐园。
Steam parks.
是啊。
Yeah.
我觉得我们大概不会去搞一个有竞争力的手机业务，但我认为有很多机会，我们会去探索那些真正可扩展、且与我们现有业务相关的新领域——我们拥有第一方权益，而不是仅仅作为赞助商或授权方，我们要真正掌握其经济收益。
Know, I think we're probably not gonna end up with a a competitive phone business, but I think there are a number of opportunities that we will look to do where it is truly scalable and it is adjacent, but it's a new business line that, you know, we have a first party stake in and are not working as a sponsor or licensee where we have true ownership economics in it.
明白了。
Got it.
非常感谢你来参加，安德鲁。
Well, thanks so much for coming on, Andrew.
真的很感谢。
Really appreciate it.
我还在努力理解那个关于年轻人发型的事情。
And I'm still trying to wrap my head around the, I guess, the youth haircut thing.
也许会开一些Dude Perfect的理发店或沙龙，遍布各地。
It would have been Dude Perfect barbershops, like, or salons, I guess, around the place.
我的意思是，我不确定。
I mean, I don't know.
可能会很有趣。
Could have been fun.
工作。
Work.
我们永远不会好了。
We'll never Alright.
非常感谢你参加节目，安德鲁。
Well, thanks so much for coming on the show, Andrew.
我们非常感谢你，很快再和你聊。
We really appreciate it, and we'll talk to you again very soon.
谢谢你们邀请我。
Thanks for having me.
好了，今天的节目就到这里。
Well, that does it for today's show.
提醒一下，我们每周一至周五上午10点（太平洋时间），下午1点（东部时间）直播。
A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.
我要感谢亚马逊网络服务公司作为本节目的冠名赞助商，也要感谢你们的收看。
I wanna thank Amazon Web Services who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I wanna thank you for tuning in.
我们非常感谢你们的支持。
We really do appreciate your viewership.
我已经开始期待周一的下一期节目了。
I'm already excited for our next show on Monday.
周末愉快。
Have a great weekend.
暂时再见了。
Bye bye for now.
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