英伟达多空对决、白宫人工智能行政命令及Coinbase预测市场 | 2025年11月20日

这是一份非常有趣的文件。

So it's a really interesting document.

显然也引发了很多问题。

Obviously raises a lot of questions as well.

好的。

Okay.

亚伦，如果你思考一下这种行政命令对硅谷和企业会产生什么影响，你觉得最突出的是什么？

And Aaron, if you think about what an executive order like this, what impact it would have on Silicon Valley and on companies, what stands out to you?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这本质上是许多科技公司长期以来一直要求白宫采取的行动。

I mean, this is essentially something that a lot of tech companies have been asking for from the White House for a long time.

你知道，我们看到马克·安德森本周公开支持采取足够措施阻止各州监管人工智能。

You know, we saw Mark Andreessen essentially come out this week in favor of of sufficient action to block states from regulating AI.

我们还听说，Meta、谷歌和OpenAI也一直在要求采取类似的行动。

And we've also heard that Meta, Google, and OpenAI have been asking for, you know, similar action.

主要原因在于，这些州级法规使得企业在开发人工智能模型时合规更加繁琐和昂贵，而这些公司并不想应对各州之间零散的监管体系。

The the basic reason for that is that, you know, these state regulations make it more onerous and costly, to to comply with as they build AI, models, and those companies don't wanna have to deal with a patchwork of regulations across different states.

因此，他们本质上是通过游说白宫，要求采取某种措施来取代这些州级法律。

So they're essentially, you know, using their their lobbying, with the White House to ask for some sort of action to preempt those state laws.

抱歉。

Sorry.

我本来想问你一个问题，结果突然呛住了。

I was gonna ask you a question, and then I started choking.

这还是节目开播以来的第一次。

That's the first time on the show.

但正如你所见，这是一个非常令人兴奋的话题。

But as you can see, it's just a very exciting topic.

西尔维娅，我的问题是——如果我的嗓子允许我问的话——白宫或任何联邦监管机构以前是否尝试过类似的做法？

Sylvia, my question for you, if if my voice will allow me to ask it, is has something like this been tried before by the White House or by any federal regulators?

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个非常有趣的领域，因为以前确实尝试过。

So this is a really interesting area because it has been tried before.

除了白宫内部人员外，科技行业和游说者曾试图在去年七月特朗普的那项宏伟法案中加入一项条款。

People inside the White House were addition to people in the technology industry, lobbyists were trying to get a provision included in Trump's big beautiful bill back in July.

他们希望在该法案中加入一项针对州级AI的暂停令，但这项提议非常不受欢迎，最终在参议院以99票对1票被否决。

They wanted a state AI moratorium added to that bill, but it was very unpopular, and it was actually killed by the Senate in a vote of 99 to one.

白宫也在尝试看看是否能重启这一条款，并将其纳入另一项立法中。

The White House is also trying to see if they can revive that provision and include something similar in another piece of legislation.

因此，他们显然非常希望找到一种方式来实现这一点，但我不知道它是否能在共和党人和民主党人中获得足够的支持。

So it seems like they very much want to find a way to do this, but I don't know if it's got the popularity needed amongst Republicans as well as Democrats, of course.

对。

Right.

谈谈白宫试图阻止的这些州级法规吧。

Talk about these state regulations that the White House is trying to block.

这些州级法规到底有多少呢？

How many of these state regulations are there even?

具体来说，如果你能谈谈已经实施这些规定的几个州，我只是想知道这个问题到底有多严重。

Specifically, I guess, if you could talk about a few states that have implemented them, I'm just wondering how big of an issue this is at all.

是的，州一级已经提出了上千项法案，其中几项已经通过。

Yeah, well there are more than a thousand bills that have been introduced at the state level, and several of them have passed.

我们看到的行政命令或草案行政命令特别针对科罗拉多州和加利福尼亚州，这两个州最近通过了相关法案，涉及算法歧视和透明度等问题。

The executive order or the draft executive order that we saw takes particular aim at Colorado and California, where acts have recently been passed, and these address issues like the potential for algorithmic discrimination and transparency issues.

因此，州一级确实有很多活动。

So there are certainly a lot of activity at the state level.

行政命令背后的人员以及特朗普本人一直倡导建立全国统一标准，而不是亚伦提到的这种零散模式。

The people behind the executive order and Trump himself have advocated for a national standard as opposed to this patchwork that Aaron mentioned.

但至少对我来说，还不清楚这样的全国性标准何时会出台，会是什么样子。

Although it's not really clear to me at least when such a national standard would materialize, what that would look like.

命令中有一些指示，要求大卫·萨克斯等人开始这一过程，但目前尚不清楚全国性标准是否会实现，以及何时实现。

There is some instruction in the order for David Sacks and others to begin that process, but it's not clear when or if a national standard would come to pass.

埃琳，当你关注这一问题的未来发展时，你想到哪些问题，关于科技公司会如何受到这一影响？

Erin, as you think about watching this issue moving forward, what kind of questions come to mind in terms of how you think tech companies will be affected by this?

但这是否会鼓励科技公司进行更多游说，以推动他们想要的政策，因为看起来这种方式似乎有效？

But is this going to encourage more lobbying from the tech companies to push what they want, given that it seems like it's working?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，司法部会尝试提出什么样的法律论据来挑战这些州法律，这将非常有趣，而这可能对开发这些AI产品的科技公司产生巨大影响。

I think it's going to be really interesting to see what legal arguments the justice department tries to make to challenge these state laws, and, you know, that could have huge implications for the tech companies that are building these AI products.

我们看到的那份行政令草案实际上暗示，司法部可能会声称这些州法律违反了宪法，可能侵犯了第一修正案，这很有趣，因为这与Character AI等公司正在各种诉讼中提出的论点相似——他们认为AI模型享有与公民相同的言论自由权利。如果司法部最终采取这种立场，这将对所有AI模型的开发者，以及我们这些日常可能与AI模型互动的人，产生深远影响。

You know, the the order that we saw a draft of essentially implies that the justice department might claim that these state laws violate the constitution, possibly violate the First Amendment, which is interesting because it's a similar argument that companies like Character AI are making in various lawsuits that they're fighting saying that AI models essentially have free speech rights just like citizens do, which, you know, if that ends up being the tack that the justice department takes would have pretty huge implications for all of the developers of AI models as well as, you know, all of us who, you know, might might interact with AI models on a day to day basis.

因此，我认为科技公司肯定会继续游说，试图塑造这些论点的走向，这也是我们未来会密切关注的事情。

So I think we're definitely gonna see tech companies continue to to lobby to try to shape what those arguments look like, and and that's something that I think we'll be closely watching going forward.

最后一个问题问你们两位。

And last question for the two of you.

大家都可以自由发言，如果有想法的话。

Look, anyone can jump in if they want or if they have an idea of this.

但我很好奇，这将如何影响AI产品和服务的消费者。

But I'm wondering how this would affect consumers of AI products and services.

我们似乎在使用这些应用程序时，根本不会考虑联邦或州层面实施的任何监管措施。

I we seemingly use these applications without thinking about any of the kind of regulations that are put in place at a federal or state level.

西尔维娅，你有什么想法吗？或者埃琳，作为聊天机器人的用户，这会如何影响我？

Sylvia, anything come to mind or Erin around how I could be affected from this as a user of a chatbot?

你知道，我觉得

You know, There I think

我们继续吧。

we go.

这正是我想要的。

That's what I wanted.

我就想要这种兴奋感，好吧。

I wanted that excitement, Okay.

西尔维娅，我先问你，然后我们再问埃琳。

Sylvia, I'm gonna come to you first, and then we're gonna to Erin.

我认为这取决于这些模型以及创建这些模型的公司如何被监管，而这当然会影响消费者，因为这是一种极其强大的技术，越来越多的人以越来越多的方式与之互动。

Well, I think it's a matter of how these models and how the companies creating these models are regulated, and that, of course, has an effect on consumers because this is extremely powerful technology that more and more people are interacting with in more and more ways.

特朗普和这一命令背后的人员所倡导的是一种非常宽松的监管方式。

And what Trump and the people behind this order are advocating for is a really kind of light touch approach.

支持州级监管的人认为，各州能够更快地采取行动，应对当前出现的问题。

And the folks in favor of state regulation would argue that states can act quicker and address concerns that are cropping up now.

因此，我认为这些公司是否受到监管以及如何受到监管，当然会对作为聊天机器人用户的我们产生影响。

So I think whether these companies are regulated and how they're regulated, of course, has consequences for us, the users of chatbots.

埃琳，你怎么看？

Erin, what do you think?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，到目前为止，我们在加利福尼亚或科罗拉多等地看到的一些州法律，主要聚焦于强制公司披露你正在与AI产品互动的事实。

I mean, so far, some of the state laws that we've seen in places like California or Colorado focus on basically forcing companies to disclose when you're interacting with an AI product.

所以我认为，如果你曾经在客服电话中等待过，却不确定自己是在和真人还是AI代理对话，这种监管可能就会带来类似的影响，无论它们最终是否生效。

So I think that, you know, might have implications if you've ever waited on, you know, a a phone call with customer support, and you're not sure if you're talking to a human or to an AI agent, that that might be the type of impact that you see from these regulations, whether or not they go into effect.

因此，我认为这可能是各州目前试图针对的问题，而一些公司对此并不高兴，这可能就是消费者会感受到的影响之一。

So I think that, like, that that could be the type of thing that states are trying to target right now that some of these companies aren't too happy with, and that might be one of the impacts that you would see as a consumer.

很好。

Great.

西尔维娅和亚伦，这是一场精彩的讨论。

Well, Sylvia and Aaron, it's a great discussion.

感谢你们的到来。

I want to thank you for coming on.

我们非常感激。

We really do appreciate it.

我们很快再见。

We'll see you soon.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢，阿卡什。

Thanks, Akash.

好的。

Okay.

预测市场在2025年蓬勃发展，以至于Coinbase决定也要加入其中。

Prediction markets have boomed in 2025, so much that Coinbase has decided it wants in.

我的同事杨悦驰，负责报道所有加密货币相关资讯，本周撰写了一篇深度报道，详述这家加密货币交易所计划与该领域两大巨头之一的Kalshi合作，推出自己的预测市场。

My colleague, Yuechi Yang, who reports on all things crypto, wrote a deep dive this week on the crypto exchange's plans to offer a prediction market of its own by partnering with Kalshi, one of the two big players in the space.

现在邀请杨悦驰加入我们，向我们分享她所了解到的内容。

Joining me now is Yuechi to tell us more about what she's learned.

悦驰，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Yuechi, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

嘿，阿卡什。

Hey, Akash.

我一直期待在节目中讨论预测市场这个话题。

I've been waiting to do the prediction markets segment on the show.

真不敢相信我们拖了这么久才谈这个，但我非常兴奋能和你一起探讨。

I can't believe it's taken this long, but I am so excited to talk about it with you.

谈谈你对Coinbase在这一领域扩张计划的了解。

Talk to me about what we know about Coinbase's plans to expand in the space.

预测市场今年一直是一个热门趋势，实际上从去年年底、在美国总统大选之前就开始兴起。

Prediction market has been a hot trend this year, and really starting from late last year ahead of the US presidential election.

越来越多的公司，尤其是加密公司和不同类型的投资经纪商，正在进入预测市场领域。

And increasingly, are seeing more companies, especially crypto companies and different type of brokerages are moving to offer prediction markets.

最新的参与者就是Coinbase。

So the latest one is Coinbase.

根据我的报道，Coinbase即将推出自己的预测市场，并将在12月中旬的产品发布会上正式公布。

And Coinbase, according to my reporting, is set to launch their own prediction markets, which they will unveil in their product event in mid December.

他们将与Cauchy合作，这是一家美国监管的预测市场平台，共同推出该产品。

And they are going to work with Cauchy, which is a US regulated prediction markets to offer the product.

这对Coinbase来说能有多大的盈利潜力？

How lucrative could this be for Coinbase?

他们打算如何赚钱？

How do they plan on making money?

我们对此了解多少？

Do we know anything about that?

我们不了解。

We don't.

而且我们知道，目前两大预测市场之间竞争激烈。

And we know that there's intense competition among the two major prediction markets right now.

一个是Polymarket，它目前几乎不收取交易费用，因此收入很少。

One is Polymarket, which doesn't really charge transaction fees yet, so they don't really make much revenue.

另一个是CaoXi，它确实收取交易费用。

And another one is CaoXi, which does charge transaction fees.

所以我认为，到目前为止，所有这些玩家的首要任务都是抢占市场份额，吸引用户，而不是优先考虑盈利。

So I think so far, the priority for all these players is really to grab market share and to be able to attract users as opposed to prioritizing generating profits.

能给我们讲讲CaoXi和Polymarket之间的竞争吗？

Tell us a little bit about the rivalry between CaoXi and Polymarket.

它们的产品真的完全一样吗？

Are they literally the exact same products?

哪一个更受欢迎？

Is one more popular?

哪一个获得了更多的风险投资？

Has one gotten more venture funding?

我们对它们了解多少？

What do we know about them?

它们正在正面竞争。

They're competing head on.

历史上，Polymarket 是提供美国以外服务的那个。

Historically, Polymarket is the one that's offering outside of The US.

它们规模更大，而且多年来因为与商品期货交易委员会达成监管和解，它们不被允许在美国运营。

They're bigger, and they for a few years, they were not allowed to operate in The US because of a regulatory settlement that they reached with the CFTC.

另一方面，Cauchy 是美国最大的预测市场提供商，这是因为它们拥有美国监管体系下的许可证。

And then on the other hand, Cauchy is the biggest provider of prediction market in The US, and that's because they have a license under The US regulatory regime.

然而，今年情况将有所变化，因为 Polymarket 在今年夏天通过收购一家持牌交易所和清算所，获得了进入美国市场的监管批准。

However, this year, things are going to shake up a little bit, and that's because Polymarket in the summer was able to get regulatory approval to enter The US market after they acquired a licensed exchange and clearinghouse.

因此，目前我们预计这两个市场都会进入美国市场，两家提供商都将现身，它们将在各个方面展开激烈竞争，不仅争夺用户，还争夺投资资本，以及越来越多的合作关系。

So right now, we expect to see both markets showing up both providers showing up in The US market, and we expect to see intense competition between them in all aspects, not just in competing for users, but also investor capital, increasingly partnerships and

这类合作。到目前为止，哪家公司筹集了更多的风险资本？

those sorts Which one has raised more venture capital so far?

到目前为止，Polymarket 的估值更高。

Polymarket is valued higher so far.

所以上个月，它们以80亿美元的估值完成了融资，其中包括纽约证券交易所的拥有者。

So last month, they raised at $8,000,000,000 valuation, including from the owner of New York Stock Exchange.

而CaoXi上个月的估值为50亿美元，并得到了Andreessen等知名投资者的支持。

And CaoXi raised at a 5,000,000,000 valuation last month, and they are backed by big name investors such as Andreessen.

你能跟我详细讲讲监管方面的讨论吗？

And can you walk me through a little bit of of the regulatory discussion?

你之前稍微提到了一点，但你看，加密货币这个议题的核心问题其实是：加密货币是一种证券吗？

You touched on it a little bit, but look, crypto, the name of the issue at hand really has been, is crypto a security?

它是一种商品吗？

Is it a commodity?

那它两者都不是吗？

Is it neither?

它在监管体系中处于什么位置？

Where does it sit in the regulatory system?

到底由谁来监管它？

Who even regulates it?

现在我们有了一个对加密货币监管更清晰的环境，但预测市场如何融入这一问题？这是否对它们构成了挑战？还是说它们与加密货币类似，都处于监管较宽松的地带，因此才能在这里取得进展？

Now we have this environment where we have a little bit more regulatory clarity with crypto, but how do the prediction markets fit into that issue, and has that been a challenge for them at all, or is it fairly similar to crypto in that it's looser regulations, and so that's why they're allowed to get traction here?

在美国，预测市场由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管，但为了扩张，这些公司仍在不断突破监管边界。

So prediction markets in The US are regulated by the CFTC, but they are, for these companies to expand, they are still pushing the regulatory boundary.

其中一部分原因与它们提供的投注类型有关，因为它们允许人们对各种过去根本没有市场的事件下注，比如泰勒·斯威夫特明年或后年是否会结婚。

And part of it is really related to the kind of bets that they're offering because they're letting people to bet on all sorts of things that historically they don't really have a market for, such as whether Taylor Swift will have a wedding next year or year after.

我认为，这开始触及监管红线，因为我们知道某些市场是绝对不允许推出的，例如对政治家遇刺进行下注。

And that, I think, starts to get market because some of the markets that we know are definitely not allowed to be launched include, for example, betting on the assassination of politicians.

这肯定是非法的，因为你绝不能提供一个可能激励人们实施暗杀的市场。

And that's something that will definitely be illegal because you do not want to offer a market where you could potentially incentivize people to carry out assassination.

但对于其他一些事件，情况就不那么明确了，这就变得棘手了。

But then for some of the other events, it's less clear, and that's where it starts to get tricky.

而且，很多投注都与体育有关。

And, also, a lot of the bets are related to related to sports.

历史上，美国的体育博彩由各州监管机构监管。

And, historically, sports contracts in The US are regulated by state regulators.

这些市场也必须应对各州的监管规定。

These markets will also have to deal with state regulations.

此外，还有一系列与监管、监控交易、内幕交易相关的问题，这些问题在任何市场中都会出现。

And then there's also a whole host of issues related to policing, watch trading, insider trading, and these are issues that just occur with any markets.

但尽管如此，你提到的那些故事中，不仅仅只有Coinbase。

But despite all this, one of the things you talked about in your stories, it's not just Coinbase.

还有其他大型上市公司也在越来越多地关注预测市场，以扩展其业务。

There are other big public companies that are also increasingly looking to prediction markets to expand their operations.

是的。

Yes.

我们知道加密货币市场公司是首批采用者。

And we know that crypto market companies are the first adopters.

所以Coinbase正在行动

So Coinbase is moving

DraftKings是你提到的另一家公司。

DraftKings was the other company you mentioned.

是的。

Yes.

体育公司，DraftKings也在向前推进。

Sports companies, DraftKings are moving ahead as well.

Crypto.com有类似的产品，甚至特朗普总统的Truth Social也宣布计划进入预测市场。

Crypto.com has a similar product, and even president Trump's true social announced plans to get prediction market.

经纪公司也是如此。

And so are the brokerages.

Robinhood是另一家提供预测市场的公司。

Robinhood is another one offering prediction market.

所以让我们回到之前你提出的一个问题，关于这对Coinbase的整体战略意味着什么。

And so just bringing us back full circle to one of the earlier questions I asked you at the start around what this means for Coinbase's strategy more broadly.

这是否是Coinbase为了多元化收入所做的努力？

Is this an effort for Coinbase to diversify their revenue?

这是否真的只是下一个正在兴起的加密市场？

Is this really just, you know, is it the next crypto in terms of a market that is starting to get built up?

这对Coinbase的整体战略意味着什么？

What does this mean for Coinbase's strategy overall?

是的，这是Coinbase战略的一部分，旨在成为全能交易所。

Yeah, it's part of Coinbase strategy to become an everything exchange.

他们最初从加密货币交易开始。

So they started with crypto trading.

他们在加密用户中拥有庞大的用户群，但也希望将更多类型的资产引入其平台，预测市场就是其中一部分。

They have big followings among crypto users, but they're also hoping to bring more types of assets onto their platforms, and prediction markets is part of it.

他们还在研究代币化股票，让用户能够通过代币形式在区块链上获得美国股票的敞口。

They are also working on tokenized stocks, which is to allow users to be able to get exposures to US stocks on the blockchain through token format.

这是他们计划的一部分，旨在提供更多类型的产品，并更深入地融入用户的金融生活。

And it is part of their plan to be able to offer more types of products and become more integrated with the financial life of their users.

很好。

Great.

谢谢您前来做客。

Well, I wanna thank you for coming on.

这是一个引人入胜的故事，我们很快还会再邀请您回来。

It's a fascinating story, and we will have you back on again soon.

这位是《信息》杂志的加密货币记者杨越驰。

That is Yuechi Yang, our crypto reporter here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

风险投资领域的性别多样性和代表性不足是一个长期存在的问题，我们《信息》杂志对此已追踪多年。

Gender diversity and underrepresentation in venture capital has been a long standing issue that we have tracked for a long time here at The Information.

All RACE 是一个专注于这一问题的组织。

All RACE is an organization that has centered themselves on this problem.

我想邀请非营利组织All RACE的首席执行官佩吉·亨德里克斯·巴克纳来谈谈他们取得的进展。

And I want to bring on the CEO of the nonprofit Paige Hendrix Buckner to talk about the progress it is making.

佩吉，欢迎来到我们的节目。

Paige, welcome to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you on.

谢谢你的邀请，阿卡什。

Thanks for having me, Akash.

今天见到你真好。

It's so good to see you today.

那么，我们来谈谈当前的问题。

So let's talk about the issue at hand here.

对于那些还不了解最新数据和当前情况的人，请为我们梳理一下现状。

For those of us who aren't up to date with the latest stats and where the current state of play is on this matter, walk us through where we are.

当然。

Absolutely.

首先，我想衷心感谢你邀请我参加。

Well, first I just want to say thank you so much for having me.

我非常喜欢这个节目。

I love this program.

我想向你们简单介绍一下All Ray，以便你们对接下来要分享的数据有背景了解。

I want to tell you a little bit about All Ray so you have context for the numbers that I'm about to share.

我们是一个全国性的非营利组织，致力于帮助女性和非二元性别风险投资人取得卓越成就。

So we're a national nonprofit that is focused on helping women and non binary VCs knock it out of the park.

也就是说，帮助她们获得席位、保住席位，并取得成功。

So that's get a seat, keep their seat, and be successful.

我们需要记住的是，当我们刚开始这段旅程时，风险投资领域中只有9%的决策者是女性。

And what's important for us to remember is that when we first started our journey, only 9% of all decision makers in VC were women.

我想让这一点稍微沉淀一下，因为当时大约只有170人。

And I just want to let that settle for a second because at the time there was about 170 people.

如今，当我们审视整个行业时，这一比例已上升至约18.6%，即约2050人，这非常棒。

Now, when we look at the industry, it's about 18.6%, which is about 2,050 people, which is fantastic.

但我们在旅程中了解到，头衔并不等于权力和影响力。

But what we've learned during our journey is that title does not mean power and influence.

因此，我们的工作不仅在于统计坐在座位上的人数，更在于真正衡量他们的权力和影响力，并帮助他们增强这些能力。

So part of our work is not just to count people in seats, but to truly measure their power and influence and help them grow it.

对。

Right.

尤其是在风险投资领域，现在‘合伙人’这个头衔被滥用得很厉害，有时根本没什么实际意义。

Certainly in venture capital where it seems like partner is a title that gets thrown around a lot now and sometimes it doesn't mean a whole lot.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得我们真该深入探讨一下这个头衔到底意味着什么，对吧？

And I actually think we should dig into what it means, right?

当我们刚开始统计时，我认为‘合伙人’在行业中的含义与现在大不相同，但现在我们知道，它并不意味着你能主导交易、划转资金、担任董事会席位，或真正影响项目落地。

And at the time when we first started counting, I think partner meant something very different in the industry, but now we know it doesn't mean that you can lead a deal, wire money, take a board seat, or have real influence to get your deals done.

对我们来说，真正理解这个头衔的含义至关重要，同时也要帮助人们明白权力和影响力的真实含义，以便他们能持续积累自己的业绩记录。

It's important for us to really understand what that title means and for us to help people understand what power and influence means so that they can continue to build their track record.

归根结底，我们只是希望帮助我们的社区成员成为优秀的投资者，为董事会争取席位，因为我们知道这不仅对他们所在的公司有益，也对他们投资的初创企业大有裨益。

At the end of the day, we just want to help our community members be great investors and put points in the board because we know it's great for their firms and it's great for the portfolio companies that they invest in.

所以我想深入探讨一下这里的一些根本原因。

So I want to dig into some of the root causes here.

但当你思考如何衡量这些数据时，头衔是很容易追踪的。

But as you think about measuring this data here, titles is an easy thing to track.

决策权则更偏向定性分析。

Decision making power is a little more qualitative.

你们是如何研究这个领域的呢？

How do you go about studying that space at all?

然后我们再回头讨论根本原因。

And then we'll get into the root causes in a second.

是的，这正是我们新三年战略的一部分：研究权力与影响力。

Yeah, this is part of our new three year strategy, is to study power and influence.

因此，对我们而言，我们将关注各种衡量权力与影响力的标准，比如主导交易。

And so for us, what we'll be doing and looking at the different measures for power and influence, and again, that could be leading deals.

可能是承担薪酬。

It could be carrying compensation.

可能是投资委员会上的投票权。

It could be voting power on the IC.

因此，我们将在2026年探索所有不同的行为和特征，然后回来与大家分享更多关于我们如何衡量权力与影响力、以及真正具备影响力需要什么的发现，同时也会探讨人们如何评估自身表现，以及如何在自己的公司内提升影响力——无论是通过持续积累业绩记录，还是凭借自身知识或人脉建立强大的竞争优势。

So we will be exploring all the different behaviors and characteristics in 2026, and then come back to you all actually to share a little bit more about what we learn when it comes to not only measuring power and influence and determining what it really takes to be powerful, but then also how do people measure up and how do they grow it within their firm, whether that is continuing to build their track record, building a strong competitive edge because of the knowledge they have or the network they have.

此外，我们还希望看到更多人公开获得他们所参与交易的应有认可，因为我们学到的一个非常重要的是，我们的许多社区成员都在为董事会贡献价值。

And then again, also more publicly getting credit for their deals because something really important that we've learned is that so many of our community members are putting points to the board.

比如劳伦在Chime上的表现就是一个巨大的成功。

Like Lauren with Chime was such a huge win.

我们希望看到更多像劳伦这样的人在iShow上大放异彩。

We want to see more Laurens knocking out of the park with iShow.

她上过这个节目。

She's been on the show.

我和I进行了一次很棒的讨论。

Was a great discussion with I

她非常出色。

She was fantastic.

我们想多听一些她的故事。

And we want to hear more of her stories.

我认为这项工作的重要部分在于，我们不仅要分享数据，还要分享数据背后的人，因为这才是改变人们对成功认知的关键。

And I think that's an important part of this work is that we have to not only share the data, but also the people behind the data, because that's what changes people's perception of success.

没错。

Right.

那么现在谈谈数据，你认为导致这个数字目前没有更大——也就是18%这个数字——的核心原因有哪些？

So now speaking about the data, what are some of the core reasons that you've identified as reasons for why that number isn't bigger right now, that 18% figure?

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

当我思考为什么这个数字没有更大时，我想到了三个原因。

As I think about why that number isn't larger, I think there are three reasons that come to mind.

第一，改变一个行业需要时间。

Number one is that it takes time to make change in an industry.

我必须跟你们分享，我们非常高兴能够在短短七年的时间里，帮助将决策岗位上的女性和非二元性别人士的比例翻了一番。

And I'll have to share with you, we're delighted that we've been able to help double the percentage of women and non binary folks in decision making roles in just seven years.

这比原计划提前了三年。

That's three years ahead of schedule.

但我确实认为，改变需要时间。

But I do think it takes time.

我认为第二个原因是，大多数公司规模都很小，我们需要思考究竟有多少人真正坐在决策席位上。

I think number two, most firms are pretty small and we think about how, many people are actually in decision making seats.

在增加决策者之前，你必须先扩大整体基数，对吧？

You have to add more to the pie before you can add more decision makers, right?

你不能只是简单地提拔某个人。

You can't just simply promote somebody.

我认为第三点是，人们需要持续记住，当决策团队具备性别多样性时，数据表现会更好，无论是在董事会、风险投资公司，还是在初创企业中。

I think the third piece of it is folks need to continue to remember that the data is good when you have gender diversity on any decision making team, whether that's in a boardroom, that's in a venture capital firm, or that's at a startup.

因此，我认为这三方面共同构成了关键因素，这也是我们未来三年工作的核心部分。

And so I think those three pieces together are critical, and that's a big part of our work over the next three years.

我更想说的是，当你审视女性和代表性不足的风险投资人当前在现有生态系统中面临的挑战时，这些挑战是什么？

More what I was trying to get at is, as you look at the challenges that women and underrepresented venture capitalists face right now in the current ecosystem, what are those challenges?

人们来找你时，会说：‘这对我来说是个问题。’

What are people coming to you and saying, Hey, this is a problem for me.

我正试图突破这一点。

I'm trying to break through on it.

但这是文化问题吗？

But is it culture?

是职位数量的问题吗？

Is it the number of positions?

是行业结构本身的问题吗？

Is it the way the industries are built?

谈谈这个。

Talk about that.

首先，我认为风险投资行业整体上一直是一个充满挑战的时期。

The first part of it is I think it's been a very challenging time of venture capital, full stop.

当我们看到资本和女性、非二元性别者以及通常被边缘化的人群涌入这个行业，随后又遭遇行业收缩时，我注意到，尽管这些人已经建立了自己的业绩记录，但还没有足够的时间在业绩上取得足够显著的成果，来证明‘你应该留我在公司’。

So when we think about the influx we saw of capital and of women and non binary folks into the industry and generally underrepresented people, and then you see a contraction in the industry, what I've noticed is that some of those folks, while they have built their track record, haven't had enough time to put the kind of points on the board to be able to say, Hey, you should keep me in the firm.

或者他们确实取得了成绩，但由于内部体系的原因，他们的晋升速度却不如其他人。

Or they have put points in the board and because of internal systems, they're not getting promoted at the same rate.

我无法计数有多少次，我听到有人对我说：‘我有出色的业绩记录，但我的公司却提拔了一个男人，因为他们内部关系更强，或者拥有更多权力和影响力。’

And I can't tell you the number of times I've talked to folks who've said, I have a great track record, but my firm has promoted a man instead because they have stronger relationships internally or they have more power and influence.

我认为，通过数据来审视这个问题非常有益，因为它能提醒人们：风险投资公司本质上是为了赚钱，你必须确保你的明星人才能够发光。

And I think what's great about looking at the data is to remind people that venture firms are about making money and you want to make sure that your stars shine.

这不仅仅是关于建立良好的人际关系，更要回归数据和人们的真实表现。

And it's not just about having great relationships, it's about going back to the data and people's performance.

但第二部分是，我们看到大量女性离职并创办了自己的公司。

The second part of it though, is that we've seen so many women spin out and start their own firms.

无论是在募集一至三轮还是四至六轮基金，当前的募资环境都极其艰难。

And it's a really tough market to raise money in, whether it's firms are raising, you know, funds one through three or four through six.

而这正是我们关注的两个领域。

And those are the two buckets we focus on.

因此，在这个特定时期，帮助有限合伙人理解这一机会对我们来说非常重要，而他们确实理解了。

And so in this time in particular, it is important for us to help LPs understand the opportunity and they do.

这正是我们听到的。

That's what we're hearing.

但我一再听到那些成功融资的女性和非二元性别人士说，他们被问到的风险问题更多，很难向他人讲述自己的故事，也很难让别人对他们产生投资热情，即使他们的业绩比一些男性同行更强，而那些男性可能没有他们那么多知名案例。

But what I've heard time and again from women and non binary folks who got to raise is they get more questions about risk and they're having a tougher time telling people the story or getting folks who are excited to invest in them, even when they compare to their male counterparts who don't have a stronger track record, who maybe don't have all the logos that they have.

因此，我想再次提醒大家，如果回到数据来看，女性和非二元性别人士是具有竞争力的。

And so again, I want to remind people that if you go back to the data, women and non binary folks are competitive.

这并不是要给那些表现不佳的人开后门。

This is not about handing out to people who are not doing the job well.

而是要认可他们所建立的业绩记录、他们所具备的潜力，以及如果我们不支持他们，我们正在错失的机会。

This is about recognizing the track record they've built, the potential that they have, and the opportunity we're missing if we're not betting on them.

对。

Right.

我很好奇。

I'm curious.

你看，我们现在有很多关于AI泡沫的讨论，或者整个市场——不仅限于股票市场，还包括风险投资估值——都存在大量泡沫。

Look, we have a lot of talk about an AI bubble right now, or a lot of froth in the market broadly, not just in the stock market, also with venture capital valuations.

我想知道，当你通过市场周期研究这个问题时，这种现象在繁荣或萧条时期是否会时好时坏？

I wonder, as you've studied this issue through market cycles, is this an issue that sometimes can get better or worse in times of booms or bust?

当形势变得更艰难时，你是否看到之前取得的进步会有所倒退？

Do you see progress that is made ultimately walked back a little bit when times get tougher?

当这些关于泡沫的讨论持续存在时，这是我们应当思考的问题吗？

Is that something that we should be thinking about as these talks of these bubbles persist?

当然。

Absolutely.

如果你看看2023年的数据，当我们开始注意到风险投资明显收缩时，我听到几位女性表示，尽管她们很有竞争力，但如果她们是首批获得投资的，她们可能也会是第一批被放弃的，即使她们有良好的业绩记录。

And if you look at the data from 2023, when we started to notice a real pullback in venture capital, what I heard from several women was their concern that though they were competitive, if they were maybe the first in, they might be the first out, even if they had the track record.

我认为部分原因在于，在面临挑战或收缩时，我们会回归到自己熟悉的事物。

And I think part of that is because we go back to what we know in times of challenge or contraction.

因此，在此刻，再次提醒我们，让我们回头去看看人们的真实业绩记录。

And so in this moment, again, it's important for us to remember, let's go back and look at people's track records.

让我们回到使用真正客观的数据来做招聘和晋升的决策。

Let's go back and use really objective data to make decisions about hiring and promotion.

我想分享的最后一点是，这令人失望，因为数据一再证明，多元化的团队表现优异，而在这些时刻，当人们本能地想回到自己熟悉的人和信任的关系时，你可能会错失超额收益，因为你没有投资那些拥有你所不具备的市场洞察力、人脉、经验、技能和知识的人。

And then the last piece that I'll share with you is that it's disappointing because the data is so good about having diverse teams over and over and over again, that in these moments when it feels like it should be the natural thing to do to go back to the people you know, the relationships you trust, you might be missing out on alpha because you're not actually investing in the person who has a perspective into the market that you don't have because they have market, they have, networks, they have experience, they have skills and knowledge that you don't have.

所以，简短的回答是：是的。

So yes is the short answer.

而长一点的回答是，在支持那些拥有你所不具备的视角和经验、并且愿意卷起袖子踏实做事的人身上，存在着机遇。

And the long answer is there's opportunity on the other side of betting on people who have perspectives and experiences that you don't have and who also are willing to roll up their sleeves and do the work.

因此，在当前这个多元、公平与包容（DEI）遭遇反弹的时刻，我非常兴奋地想说：数据是可靠的。

So I'm really excited in this moment, especially with DEI backlash to say, The data is good.

这里存在着机遇。

There's opportunity here.

让我们继续前进。

Let's keep going.

没错。

Right.

那么让我们谈谈AllRaise为解决这个问题所制定的一些具体举措。

So let's talk about some of the specific initiatives then that AllRaise has crafted to target this issue.

我知道你们每年都会举办一场会议。

What sorts of I know you run a conference every year.

我的意思是，会议只是一个瞬间。

I mean, the conference is a moment in time.

但如果你谈谈会议之后的成果，AllRaise在实地究竟在做些什么工作？你们如何看到这些工作真正取得了进展？

But if you talk about what comes out of the conference, what is the work that All Raise is doing on the ground and how have you seen that really catch some traction?

是的。

Yeah.

AllRaise是一个全国性的组织，拥有大约1200名成员，他们大多是来自全国各地的资深人士，热衷于提升自己的技能、知识和人脉。

So All Raise is a national organization that has approximately 1,200 members, and they're mostly senior folks from coast to coast who are excited to build their skills, knowledge, and network.

一个很好的实际例子就是我们的风险投资峰会。

And one great example of what that looks like in action is our VC Summit.

我们最近刚刚举办了这场峰会。

So we recently hosted it.

令人兴奋的是，这是一个让人们相互联系、分享技能和知识，同时还能进行实质性交易的机会。

And what was exciting is that it was an opportunity for people to connect with each other, to share their skills and knowledge, but then also get transactional.

我无法告诉你我们收到了多少关于人们分享交易流的故事。

And I can't tell you the number of stories that we received about people who were sharing deal flow.

他们在讨论下一次共同投资的项目。

We're talking about their next co investments together.

而且我们有一个非常强大的舞台。

And we had a really powerful stage.

我们很荣幸邀请到了博士

We were fortunate enough to have Doctor.

吉尔·拜登加入我们，并谈论她的工作及对女性健康的投资

Jill Biden join us and talk about her work and investing in women's health.

我们还邀请了格温妮丝·帕特洛讨论她的新基金Kinship Ventures

We also had Gwyneth Paltrow talking about her new fund Kinship Ventures.

因此我感到非常兴奋，因为这次峰会不仅让人们有机会接触更宏大、更广泛的叙事和信息——理解为何投资女性及非二元性别群体作为风投人或创始人对商业有益——而且他们实际上还在峰会上进行业务洽谈

And so I'm excited because this is an opportunity for people to not only connect with a bigger, broader narrative and message about why investing in women and non binary folks as VCs or as founders is good for business, but they're actually doing business at the summit.

让我感到兴奋的是，这是对人们成就的庆祝。

And what's exciting to me, it's a celebration of people's accomplishments.

我们可以谈谈像莎拉·史密斯这样的人，她们创办了自己的基金，成功筹集了资金，并且已经开始投资。

And so we can talk about people like Sarah Smith who've gone out to start their own fund, have successfully raised that fund and are already investing.

明年我们再回来时，就能谈论莎拉和其他与会者所建立的业绩记录。

And then next year we'll get to come back and talk about the track record that Sarah's building and other people in the room.

因此，Again 是一个既能建立关系又能促成交易的绝佳场所。

So again, Always is an incredible place to be both relational and transactional.

最后我想跟你们分享的是，每年都有男性加入我们，他们作为演讲者和参与者也获得了巨大的价值。

And the last thing I'll share with you is we have men who join us every year who also bring and get incredible value as speakers and as participants.

今年我们迎来了一些杰出的嘉宾，比如来自 Legacy 的 Ryan Neese 和来自 Next Ventures 的兰斯·阿姆斯特朗。

And we had some great folks who joined us this year, like Ryan Neese from Legacy, our Next Legacy, and Lance Armstrong joined us this year from Next Ventures.

这只是两个例子，这些人不仅从参与中获得了价值，还通过分享他们对市场真实动态以及如何成为行业顶尖人才的见解，为活动增添了价值。

And those are just two examples of folks who not only saw value in joining the experience, but also adding value by sharing their perspective in sessions all about what's really happening in the market and how people can be the best at their job.

很好。

Great.

谢谢您前来，佩吉。

Well, Paige, want to thank you for coming on.

这是一个重要的议题，您提到了All Raise的三年战略。

It's an important issue, and you talked about that three year strategy that All Raise has.

在实施这一战略的过程中，我期待您能再次回来，深入聊聊这个话题。

And so as you implement that strategy, I'm looking forward to have you back on to talk more about it.

我很高兴能再次回来与您交谈。

I'm thrilled to come back and chat with you.

谢谢您今天邀请我。

Thanks for having me today.

太棒了。

Awesome.

很高兴见到您。

Good to see you.

谢谢您，佩吉。

Thank you, Paige.

我也很高兴见到你。

Good to see you too.

好的。

All right.

好了，今天的节目就到这里。

Well, that does it for today's show.

提醒一下，我们每周一至周五上午10点（太平洋时间），下午1点（东部时间）直播。

A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.

我要感谢我们的冠名赞助商亚马逊云服务，也要感谢您收看本节目。

I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I want to thank you for tuning in.

我们非常感谢您的观看。

We really do appreciate your viewership.

我已经迫不及待期待明天的下一期节目了。

I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.

祝你周四剩下的时光愉快。

Have a great rest of your Thursday.

那先再见了。

Bye bye for now.