英伟达放弃类似AWS的云业务野心、SpaceX上市及2026年上市前景 | 2025年12月23日

欢迎各位收看Information的TI TV。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TI TV.

我叫阿卡什·帕什拉查。

My name is Akash Pashracha.

今天是12月23日，星期二。

It is Tuesday, December 23.

我们首先来介绍ServiceNow收购Armis的重大消息。

We are kicking off the show with ServiceNow's big acquisition of Armis.

我们即将邀请一位ServiceNow的高管来到节目，讨论这笔交易。

We have a top ServiceNow executive coming on the show momentarily to talk about that deal.

接着我们会讲述NVIDIA重组其云部门的新闻，这一调整标志着其放弃了詹森·黄早前打造能与AWS竞争的云服务的雄心。

We'll then get to our story about NVIDIA reorganizing its cloud division, a shift that pulls back from Jensen Huang's earlier ambitions to build a cloud service that could rival AWS.

随后我们将关注IPO市场动态。

We're then looking at the IPO landscape.

华尔街对2025年抱有很高期望，但几项备受瞩目的上市项目开局不利，就像我刚才做的那样。

Wall Street entered 2025 with high hopes, but several high profile listings have stumbled out of the gate, just like I just did.

我们将深入探讨正在发生的事情，并以关于SpaceX可能于2026年上市以及埃隆·马斯克计划将其出售给华尔街的对话结束本期节目。

We'll dig into what's going on, and we will wrap the show with a conversation around SpaceX's possible 2026 IPO and how Elon Musk's plans to sell it to Wall Street.

星云公司的首席执行官将与我进行这场对话。

The CEO of Star Cloud joins me for that conversation.

这将是一期有趣的节目。

It's going to be a fun episode.

有很多事情正在发生。

There is a lot going on.

距离圣诞节还有两天。

We are two days from Christmas.

让我们马上进入正题。

Let's get right on into things.

ServiceNow以77.5亿美元收购了网络安全公司Armis。今年ServiceNow的并购活动非常频繁，我想邀请首席产品与运营官阿米特·扎韦里，为我们深入解读公司为何进行这笔交易。

ServiceNow is buying Armis, a cybersecurity company, for $7,750,000,000 It has been a busy year for M and A for ServiceNow, and I want to bring on Amit Zaveri, the Chief Product and Operating Officer, to talk to us more about why the company is doing this deal.

阿米特，欢迎来到TI TV。

Amit, welcome to TI TV.

很高兴你来这里。

It's great to have you here.

谢谢你邀请我，阿卡什。

Thanks for having me, Akash.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

你们直到假期前都忙得不可开交吧。

So, you guys are busy right up until the holidays here.

这段时间确实很忙，但你也看到，市场同样非常活跃，对吧？

It's been a busy time, but as you see, the market has been very busy as well, right?

所以，整个行业正在飞速发展。

So, the industry is moving very, very fast.

没错。

Right.

我们的客户提出了很多新的需求。

A lot of new requirements coming from our customers.

客户也在应对技术格局中的巨大变化。

And customers are also grappling with a lot of change in technology landscape.

我们必须确保走在前列，满足他们的需求。

We have to make sure we stay ahead of it and ensure that we deliver what they require.

我想和你谈谈你们今天早上宣布的这笔交易。

Well, I want to talk to you about the deal that you announced this morning.

你看，ARMS的年度经常性收入（ARR）达到了3.4亿美元。

So, look, ARMS is doing three forty million dollars in ARR.

你们为这家网络安全公司支付的价格超过了其收入的20倍，这比目前许多上市网络安全公司的估值倍数还要高。

You're paying more than 20 times that amount for this cyber company, which is a higher multiple than a lot of public cyber companies right now that trading.

是什么理由支撑这个价格？你们为什么决定进行这笔交易？

What justifies the price and why did you decide to do the deal?

是的，如果你看看网络安全领域正在发生什么，客户正面临巨大变化：设备数量激增、AI代理增多，以及面临的安全威胁也在增加。

Yeah, think if you look at what's going on in this cyberspace, customers are grappling with huge amount of changes happening with the amount of machines out there, the amount of AI agents, as well as the amount of security threats they're dealing with.

让这一切变得可管理，对客户来说正变得越来越困难，对吧？

The complexity of making that manageable is becoming very difficult for customers, right?

因此，RMS 一直走在暴露管理的前沿。

So, RMS has been kind of the forefront of how you do exposure management.

他们在理解漏洞以及客户需要主动管理的各类问题方面具有深厚积累，以防止安全威胁变为现实。

They have a lot of depth in terms of understanding vulnerability, as well as any issues customers need to manage proactively before those security threats become real.

ARM 是一家增长非常迅速的公司。

ARM is a very fast growing company.

正如你所提到的，他们以 3.4 亿美元的年经常性收入（ARR）实现了 50% 以上的增长率。

They're growing at 50 plus percent, as you mentioned, at $340,000,000 in ARR.

而且他们也在非常快速地创新。

And they have been also innovating very fast.

他们一直在构建围绕机器数据、物联网设备、运营技术或车间设备，以及人工智能代理的完整端到端能力。

They've been creating the full end to end capabilities around machine data, things around IoT devices, operational technology, or things on the shop floor, as well as the AI agents.

他们将所有这些功能整合到一个一体化平台上，该平台与 ServiceNow 非常契合。

And they're bringing all that stuff together into one integrated platform, which very works very well with ServiceNow.

我们与他们合作已有多年，持续进行集成，并将这些价值带给客户。

We've been a partner with them for many, many years, and we continue to integrate that and bring that value to customers.

财富榜前十名中有七家公司目前正在使用ARMS。

Seven out of top 10 Fortune companies work and use ARMS today.

像联合航空、默克等公司都高度依赖ARMS来管理网络安全威胁。

It can be like United, Merck, and others have been really depending on ARMS as the way to manage the cybersecurity threats.

因此，当我们共同将这一方案推向市场时，我们看到了巨大的价值创造。

So, we see a lot of value creation jointly as we can take this to market.

任何了解ServiceNow的人都知道，你们是一家有机增长的机器。

So, everyone who knows ServiceNow knows that you guys are the organic growth machine.

有一段时间，ServiceNow似乎并没有进行任何大型收购。

I mean, for a while there, it seemed like ServiceNow was not doing any big acquisitions, really.

但最近，我们看到了一系列大型交易。

And now lately, we've seen a spate of these large deals.

为什么突然这么多并购？

Why all the M and A?

是的，我认为我们也并不依赖并购来实现我们的有机增长。

Yeah, I think we have been also I mean, I think we're not dependent on M and A for organic I mean, for our growth.

因此，我们向华尔街传达的增长预期是约20%，我们可能是唯一一家连续十年以上实现‘50法则’、保持20%以上增长和30%以上自由现金流利润率的公司。

So, what growth we have been telling to the Wall Street around 20% growth, we are probably the only company with ten years plus of rule of 50, delivering 20 plus percent growth and 30 plus percent of free cash flow margin.

这种态势将持续下去。

And that will continue.

所以，这一切都没有改变。

So, none of that stuff is changing.

这仍然是我们的发展方向和计划。

That remains our trajectory and our plan.

我们完全有信心实现这些数字。

And we're completely confident about delivering those numbers.

但我认为市场上还存在机遇。

But I think there's an opportunity to be had in the market.

我们能否进一步加速这一进程？

Can we even accelerate that further?

在哪些领域，我们认为ServiceNow能创造巨大价值，从而推动我们的加速路线图，引入能够为客户带来更多价值的能力？

And what are the areas where we see a lot of value creation for ServiceNow, where we can do our accelerator roadmap and bring in capabilities, which we think can really add more value to our customers.

关于RMS，我想说的是，我们现有的安全业务收入已经超过十亿美元，并且会持续有机增长。

So with RMS, I mean, you look at our security business already, which is billion dollar plus in revenue, which will build organically.

我认为，通过Armis为我们产品组合带来的能力，以及我们在构建新功能时所需的领域专业知识，我们可以进一步加速这一增长。

I think we can accelerate that even further with the capabilities the Armis brings to our portfolio, as well as bringing in some of the domain expertise we require as we keep on building out new, new capabilities as well.

我们希望在添加其他功能的同时，保持现有体系的完整性。

Want to kind of plan things intact while we add other things around it.

我想再回到风险与安全业务这个话题。

I want to come back to that risk and security business.

现在，它已经是第五个ACV超过十亿美元的业务。

It's the fifth business above a billion dollars in ACV now.

但快速说一下，在网络安全领域，随着AI让编写代码变得前所未有的容易——无论是用于正面用途还是恶意用途。

But very quickly, I mean, before we talk about other potential lines of business, I am curious in cybersecurity right now, with AI making it so much easier to code anything, whether it's coding something for good or coding something for bad.

我心中一直有个疑问：AI对网络安全来说，总体是利大于弊，还是弊大于利？

I mean, there is kind of this question in my mind around, is AI net good or net bad for cybersecurity?

因为，从两个角度来说，你都能找到合理的论据。

Because, I mean, you could make the argument both ways.

不，你说得对。

No, you're right.

我认为人工智能正在严重威胁网络安全，对吧？

I think cybersecurity is getting really threatened by AI, right?

我的意思是，很多公司在应对人工智能时，根本不知道该保护什么、如何保护。

I mean, there's a lot of issues where companies who are trying to deal with AI, they don't know what to protect, how to protect.

他们正在将大量新功能和技术添加到现有的技术栈中。

They are adding a lot of new features and technologies into the existing technology stack.

但如何保护这些新内容正变得极具挑战性。

But how to protect that is becoming a big challenge.

因此，我们推出了名为AI控制塔的解决方案，以帮助客户实现可见性和控制力。

That's why we introduced something called AI Control Tower to help that and give visibility as well as control to our customers.

但这还不够，对吧？

But that's not enough, right?

你还需要内置大量的智能。

You need to have a lot of intelligence built in.

威胁行为者可以以多种不良方式使用AI，正如你所提到的。

Threat actors can use AI in different bad ways, as you mentioned.

因此，我认为要保持主动和警惕，你必须将大量AI能力整合到你的平台中，确保为每一位客户提供保护。

So, I think to remain proactive and vigilant, you have to take on a lot of the AI capabilities into your platform and make sure you're making that protection being provided to every customer out there.

这将是一场持续一段时间的较量。

So, it's going to be a battle for some time.

如果你现在不投资，就会被甩在后面。

And if you don't invest now, you will be left behind.

我们的观点是，我们需要非常主动地投资于我们看到的新机遇，同时也要回应客户的需求，CISO是ServiceNow的重要采购决策中心。

And our view is that we need to be very proactive and invest in the new opportunities we see, as well as customers asking us as well, CISO is a big buying center for ServiceNow.

对。

Right.

正如你正确指出的，这是我们最大且增长最快的业务之一。

And as you rightly pointed out, it's one of the largest and fastest growing businesses for us.

我们看到这一趋势的原因是，他们正试图解决客户今天面临的非常复杂的问题。

And we see a reason for that because they'll be trying to solve a very complicated problem customer face today.

我们可以成为这一领域的领导者。

And we can be the leader in that area for us.

为了客户。

For the customer.

让我们回到更宏观的业务视角。

So let's get back to sort of the broader view of the business here.

你旗下有这五个业务板块。

You have five of these businesses underneath your product umbrella.

你现在拥有IT领域的业务，这显然是ServiceNow的核心。

Now you've got businesses in IT, which was the core of ServiceNow, obviously.

你还有人力资源流程和客户服务管理、CRM流程。

You have the HR workflows and the customer service management, CRM workflows.

你现在拥有网络安全业务。

You have cybersecurity now.

所以你有了这五个业务板块。

So you got these five businesses.

你们正在为第六个超过十亿美元ACV的业务做哪些准备？

What are you gearing for to be the sixth business above 1,000,000,000 in ACV?

是的，我们认为目前看到的大量新进展主要集中在数据分析上，对吧？

Yeah, think we see the way we're seeing a lot of new traction now is around data analytics, right?

因此，这是一个正变得越来越重要的领域，因为它是实现从洞察到行动的基础。

So that's a space which is becoming quite important because that's the foundation for how you do insight to action.

鉴于我们对客户整体环境拥有端到端的可见性，并且通过企业操作系统，我们对每个业务流程中发生的情况、如何管理这些流程、如何使其更高效，以及如何获取洞察以用更多信息运营业务并做出正确决策，都有非常深入的理解。

Given that we have visibility end to end across a customer landscape and with enterprise OS, we have very good understanding of what's going on in every business process, how to kind of manage that, how to really make that thing more efficient, but also how do you get insights so you can run your business with a lot more information and make the right decisions.

由于我们是在业务流程层面运行这些系统，我们也看到数据分析栈正在创造大量价值。

Given that we run this at a business process level, we're seeing a lot of value creation happening around the data analytics stack as well.

因此，我们的目标是持续推动现有所有业务的增长，使其都成为数十亿美元级别的业务，同时也在孵化新的领域。

So, our goal is to really continue growing all the businesses we have and make them multi billion dollars, while also incubating new areas as well.

所以，你

So, you

我们离数据分析还有多远？

How far are we from data analytics?

抱歉，你说什么？

I'm sorry?

数据和分析业务达到10亿美元规模还需要多久？

How far are we from data and analytics becoming a $1,000,000,000 business?

我们目前还没有公开这个数字。

We don't share that number publicly yet.

但我认为我们的目标是观察客户如何推动我们前进，以及我们的平台栈将如何演进。

But I think the goal for us is that we have to see where our customers are taking us, what we see as the evolution of our platform stack.

我们的目标始终是连接企业环境中从东到西、从北到南的所有环节。

And our goal always has been connecting everything east to west and north to south across an enterprise landscape.

这一直是我们的差异化优势。

And that's where the differentiation for us has always been.

而价值创造也正发生在这里。

And that's where the value creation is.

因此，数据是自然而然的延伸。

So, data is a natural extension.

我们已经发布了围绕RaptorDB、工作流数据架构、从洞察到行动以及相关BI应用的大量新功能。

We have announced a lot of new capabilities around that with the RaptorDB, workflow data fabric, a lot of the work we do from insight to action and BI apps associated with that.

这在IT领域中非常契合，也与我们一直以来在技术及核心业务上的投入高度一致。

And that plays very well in the IT landscape, what we've been doing with the tech and the core part of our business.

安全同样在核心IT领域中扮演着重要角色。

Security plays also in a core IT landscape as well.

因此，我们在OT与IT融合方面所做的工作也非常独特且具有差异化优势。

So what we're doing with OT and IT, that thing combination is also very, very unique and very differentiated as well.

我们的目标始终是审视自身的优势所在，并围绕这些优势构建完整的解决方案，让客户无需碎片化采购、不必购买众多不同部件，再费力地将彼此不兼容的系统拼凑在一起。

So our goal is always to kind of look at where our strengths are and how we can surround that and create a full capability for customers, so they don't have to do piecemeal, don't have to buy many, many different parts of the products, and then have to cobble them together, and different systems which don't work together.

因此，我们始终坚信：任何系统、任何数据、任何云、任何AI，都应协同工作，让客户直接从ServiceNow获得巨大价值。

So, we've always been a believer of any system, any data, any cloud, any AI, and making it all work together for our customers they get a lot of good value directly from ServiceNow.

很好。

Great.

阿米特，非常感谢你前来参加。

Well, Amit, I want to thank you for coming on.

恭喜您完成收购。

Congratulations on the acquisition.

假期期间你有时间休息一下吗？

You find some time to rest over the holidays.

这是ServiceNow的首席产品与运营官阿米特·扎韦里，正在TI TV上接受采访。

That is Amit Zaveri, Chief Product and Operating Officer of ServiceNow here on TI TV.

好的。

Okay.

NVIDIA正退出与亚马逊云服务等云提供商的竞争，并已重新分配了部分负责该业务的高级管理人员。

NVIDIA is stepping away from competing with cloud providers like Amazon Web Services and has reassigned some of the senior executives that were working on that effort.

这一消息最初由《信息》独家报道。

That is according to a scoop that the information was first to report.

我想邀请我们的NVIDIA记者韦恩·马加入讨论，他参与撰写了这篇报道，让我们了解一下团队原本计划做什么，以及公司为何决定调整方向。

I want to bring on Wayne Ma, our NVIDIA reporter who co authored that piece, to tell us a bit about what the team was supposed to have done and why the company decided to pivot.

韦恩，欢迎再次回到节目。

Wayne, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

嘿，阿卡什。

Hey Akash.

我们来谈谈 NVIDIA 的云业务吧。

So let's talk about NVIDIA's cloud business.

我的意思是，我们之前和阿尼萨·加尔迪齐在节目中讨论过这个话题。

I mean, is something that we've talked with Anissa Gardizi on the show about.

她和你合写了那篇文章。

She co authored the piece with you.

这个云部门是做什么的？

What was the cloud division?

我知道这些三个字母的缩写，DGX。

I know these three letter acronyms, DGX.

它们代表什么？

What do they stand for?

给我们讲讲吧。

Tell us about it.

最初，英伟达想创建一种专门为自家GPU高度优化的云服务。

Well, the initially, what NVIDIA wanted to do was create a cloud service that was heavily optimized for its GPUs.

有很多云服务商购买英伟达的GPU并将其安装在自己的服务器上，但他们都有自己的配置。

So there's lots of cloud providers that buy its GPUs and put them in their own servers, but they have their own configurations.

因此，英伟达希望树立一个很高的标杆，用自己的服务器来展示其硬件性能。

And so NVIDIA want to set the bar really high and showcase kind of their hardware in their own type of servers.

但他们还需要一个云服务来运行这些硬件。

But then they needed a cloud service to run that.

于是他们构建了一个‘云中之云’，即在其他云服务商的基础上搭建了自己的云服务。

And so they kind of built this cloud of clouds where they built a cloud service on top of other cloud providers.

好的。

Okay.

这项服务取得了多少进展？

And how much traction did it get?

不多。

Not very much.

所以，他们曾估计，这项业务在未来几年的潜在收入可能达到1500亿美元，超过亚马逊AWS的年收入。

So, they they wrote that, the business could potentially be, you know, worth a 150,000,000,000 in revenue, in the coming years, which would be more than what AWS, generates annually.

但事实上，这项服务的客户非常少。

But in the reality, they didn't have very many customers for the service.

它的可靠性不高。

It wasn't very reliable.

由于它运行在多个不同的云提供商上，因此很难维护。

It was hard to support because it was running on multiple different cloud providers.

所以最近，他们决定退出这项业务。

And so eventually, recently, they decided to kind of retreat from that operation.

所以你说的是依赖多个不同的云提供商。

So you you say relying on multiple different cloud providers.

因此，NVIDIA的云业务依赖于这些大型超大规模云服务商。

So NVIDIA's cloud business was depending on these other large hyperscaler cloud businesses.

这就是他们的想法吗？

Is that the idea?

对。

Right.

所以他们不会建造自己的数据中心，也不会运营自己的数据中心。

So they don't build they wouldn't build their own data centers or operate their own data centers.

他们从现有的超大规模云服务商那里租赁容量。

They leased capacity from existing hyperscalers.

好的。

Okay.

那么，这是唯一的挑战吗？还有哪些其他挑战让这件事如此难以扩展？

And so was that the only challenge, or what were some of the other challenges that that made it so difficult to scale this thing?

我认为，在他们宣布这项服务时，他们的芯片供应紧张，许多超大规模云服务商将芯片 withheld 给小型初创公司，而优先提供给大客户，因此 NVIDIA 希望打破这种局面。

Well, I think that at the time they announced the service, their chips were in short supply, and a lot of these hyperscalers were withholding them from smaller startups and reserving it for larger customers, so NVIDIA wanted to kind of break that.

但在他们启动服务到现在这段时间里，出现了许多由私募股权或其他资金支持的小型云服务商进入市场。

But in the period between when it started the service and now, there's lots of smaller cloud providers came to market funded by, you know, private equity or other types of money.

因此，这项服务的实际需求并没有他们想象的那么大

And so the service wasn't actually needed as much as they thought

会那么大。

it would be.

这和瘦素有什么关系？

And how does this relate to Leptin?

这是他们业务的另一个类别，我们在节目中稍微提到过。

This was another category of its business that we've talked a little bit about on the show.

所以，他们没有创建自己的云服务来签约客户，而是创建了一个市场，在这个市场中，原本用于该服务的硬件现在被列在了市场上，将这些云提供商与客户连接起来。

Well, so then instead of creating their own cloud service that they sign up customers for, they create a they're creating, like, a marketplace where the hardware that they were supposed to use for that is now listed on the marketplace, and it connects basically those cloud providers with customers.

所以，实际上，他们不再处于中间位置了。

So, actually, they're not effectively in the middle anymore.

明白了。

Got it.

明白了。

Got it.

我想知道这个决定能透露出关于英伟达当前整体战略的哪些信息。

I wonder what this decision tells you a little bit about NVIDIA's broader strategy right now.

我的意思是，听起来他们原本试图成为比世界上最大芯片制造商或芯片设计公司还要庞大的企业。

I mean, it sounds like they were trying to become something much larger than the largest chip maker or chip designer, I guess, in the world.

看起来他们的野心似乎有所收缩——如果你能这么说的话，他们的目标范围正在缩小。

It seems to have narrowed its if if you can say that, it's narrowing its ambitions a little bit.

这能让你对詹森·黄当前的整体战略有什么新的理解？

What does this tell you a little bit about Jensen Huang's broader strategy right now?

我认为他们正在尝试多种不同的方式，以将业务从单纯的硬件销售中多元化开来。

Well, I think they're trying lots of different things to diversify their business away from just selling hardware.

目前，90%的收入仍然来自向数据中心销售AI芯片。

And so, you know, 90% of the revenue comes right now from selling AI chips to data centers.

我认为，他们原本希望通过提供云服务，让这项业务成长为另一个主要的收入来源。

And I think they were hoping that by, by offering a cloud service, maybe that business could grow and be another source of, major revenue for them.

你认为这项业务未来有可能卷土重来吗？

Do you think it could ever come back?

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

我认为这家公司并不具备运营云服务所需的专长。

I think I don't think the company really has the expertise required to run a cloud service.

而且与销售芯片相比，这项业务的利润率也不高，因此我看不出他们近期会重启这项业务。

It's also not that profitable compared with selling ships, and so I don't see them reviving this business anytime soon.

你还写到了参与这一努力的高管们接下来的去向。

And you also wrote about where the executives who worked on this effort are going.

他们现在在做什么？

What are they working on?

嗯，该部门的负责人今年年初担任了一个新的角色。

Well, the lead the head of the division, she's currently playing a tick new role in the new year.

具体安排尚未确定，其余团队成员已被并入工程和运营部门。

It hasn't been really decided yet, and the rest of the group has been folded into the engineering and operations divisions.

明白了。

Got it.

那么，展望2026年，韦恩，作为一位关注这家公司的记者，你脑海中浮现的主要问题是什么？有哪些领域是你特别想深入探究的？

So heading into 2026, Wayne, for you, following this company, what are the big questions that come to mind for you as a reporter, areas that you're really curious to to drill deeper into for the company?

我认为关键问题是，他们如何以创新的融资方式签下这些交易和大型客户。

Well, I think that the big thing is how are they signing up these deals and signing up these large customers in ways that use creative financing.

其中一个主要问题是，他们的芯片价格太高，因此英伟达实际上正在以非常奇特的方式帮助客户融资，比如设立特殊目的载体来承担债务，或者用芯片换取股权，就像你看到的OpenAI那样。

So one of the big issues is their chips are so expensive that NVIDIA is actually trying to help its customers finance them in in in these very weird ways, like creating special purpose vehicles to, like, put the debt and, you know, exchanging the chips for equity, like, as you can see with OpenAI.

所以我认为，在未来一年，我重点关注的是他们如何为这些芯片提供资金。

So I think in the coming year, what I'm trying to follow is more how are they funding these chips?

这些芯片是如何获得资金支持的？

How are these chips getting funded?

明白了。

Right.

韦恩，非常感谢你今天来做客。

Well, Wayne, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是《信息》杂志的英伟达记者韦恩·马。

That is Wayne Ma, our NVIDIA reporter here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

大家都认为2025年将是IPO的大年，在某些情况下确实如此。

Everybody thought that 2025 was going to be the big year for IPOs, and in some cases it certainly was.

我们终于看到了一些大公司上市，比如Figma、Circle、CoreWeave和Klarna，但只要稍加留意就会发现，在今年上市的所有科技公司中，只有少数几家的股价高于其IPO价格，这使得许多仍在等待上市的大型科技公司前景蒙上阴影。

We finally saw some big names go public like Figma and Circle and CoreWeave and Klarna, but you do not have to look far to see that of all the tech companies that have gone public this year, only a select few are trading above their IPO price, which is casting doubt on the many other big tech companies waiting in the wings.

现在加入我们的是我们的财经副主编科里·温伯格，他将为我们详细介绍他在这方面的最新动态。

Joining me now is Corey Weinberg, our Deputy Bureau Chief of Finance, to tell us more about what he's hearing on this beat.

科里，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Corey, welcome back to the show.

很高兴见到你。

It's great to see you.

嘿，阿科夫。

Hey, Akoff.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

好吧，我很兴奋能和大家聊聊我们年终最感兴趣的话题——今年的IPO市场，以及2026年可能成为的IPO之年。

Well, I'm excited to talk about our favorite topic to close out the year, which is the year of IPOs that we've had and the year of IPOs that 2026 could be.

你今天发表了一篇关于这个话题的文章，我理解你的观点是什么？

So you published a story on this today, and my read on it is what?

SpaceX准备好了，但其他公司似乎都没准备好？

SpaceX is ready to go, but everybody else is kind of not?

我的意思是，这到底是怎么回事？

I mean, what's the deal?

没错。

Yeah.

我认为当前IPO市场正呈现出一种动态：投资者对构成风险投资支持科技IPO市场主体的公司，似乎并不怎么感兴趣或热情，而这一关键板块过去常常是IPO市场的重要引擎。

I think we have this dynamic in the IPO market right now where investors seemingly have been honestly, like, not that interested or that enthusiastic about the types of companies that make up the vast majority of the VC backed tech IPO market, this kind of crucial segment that's often been sort of a key engine of the IPO market.

这些公司的估值大约在50亿到150亿美元之间，年收入达数亿美元，可能接近盈利。

These companies that are valued in sort of the 5,000,000,000 to $15,000,000,000 range, doing hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue, maybe close to profitable.

许多公司在上市后都遭遇了相当冷淡的市场反应。

A lot of them have met a fairly cool reception after their debuts.

这些公司在风险投资领域非常知名，比如Klarna、Novan、Chime、StubHub，它们拥有知名品牌，但上市后表现不佳。

These are companies that are pretty notable in the VC backed world, Klarna, Novan, Chime, StubHub, companies that have well known brands, they've traded poorly.

这些公司可以说是私人市场的‘七巨头’，比如SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic，这些才是大家争相想分一杯羹的对象。

Companies that are the sort of mag seven of the private markets, if you will, you know, the SpaceXs, the OpenAI, Anthropics, like, those are the ones everyone's pining to get a piece of.

你给这个群体起过名字，对吧？

You had a name for this group, right?

我

I

称它们为‘害羞的’

called them the Shy

五强。

Five.

‘害羞的五强’，对吧。

The Shy Five, right.

这些是暂时不打算尽快上市的私人公司。

These are the private companies that were not looking to make their public debuts anytime soon.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，我们会再回头谈一谈这‘沉默五巨头’。

Well, I mean, we'll get back to the Shy Five in a second.

但那些已经上市的公司，比如Klarna、StubHub、Gemini，正如你在报道中提到的，它们的股价从上市之初就没达到人们可能期望的表现。

But so so the companies that have gone public, I mean, you noted in the story companies like Clarna, StuffHub, Gemini, I mean, their stocks haven't exactly done the way I think maybe some people would have hoped out of the gate.

这和禁售期有关吗？

Does any of that have to do with the lockup periods?

我认为，这正是许多银行家会提出的辩护理由，尤其是那些在九月到十月期间上市的公司，那段时间IPO活动非常密集。

So I think that is sort of the defense that I think a lot of bankers would say is like, especially companies that went public in the SeptemberOctober period, which was a pretty heavy period for IPOs.

这发生在Figma上市之后，在政府停摆之前，市场出现了一个真正的窗口期。

This was after Figma went public, there was kind of a real opening in the market before the government shut down.

当然，现在还没到六个月。

Obviously, it hasn't been six months yet.

所以我认为，投资者往往会袖手旁观，等到锁定期结束后才买入股票，因为他们想看看股价表现如何，因为通常锁定期结束后，由于市场上流通的股份增加，股价往往会下跌。

So I think there is a case where investors sort of wait on the sidelines before they buy a stock before the lockup because they want to see how the stock performs because often a stock goes down after sort of a lockup expires because there's more shares that hit the market.

这确实是一个动态因素，但我认为这里更关键的是一个更定性的层面，而不仅仅是一种市场驱动的技术性问题。

So that's certainly a dynamic, but I think there's definitely a more qualitative aspect here rather than just a kind of market driven sort of technicality.

我经常从IPO投资者那里听到这种说法。

And I think it's just like, I hear it from IPO investors all the time.

人们诚实地讲，在某个价格点上，他们关心的是买入StubHub、Nivon或Chime这样的股票，但他们并不一定热衷于推高这些股票的价格。

It's like people just honestly, you know, at a certain price, they care about buying, you know, a StubHub or a Nivon or a Chime, but they aren't kind of necessarily excited about bidding them up.

你知道，公开市场上有太多选择，这与私募市场那种由稀缺性驱动的环境完全不同。

You know, they have a lot of choices out there in the public It's not the same sort of scarcity driven environment that the private markets are.

所以我想弄清楚这里的动态机制。

And so I just want to understand the dynamic here.

所以当你提到银行家时，他们把责任归咎于锁定期，但现实是，如你所说，锁定期还没满六个月。

So when you say the bankers, they point to this lockup period, and then there's also the reality that the lockup period hasn't mean, I it hasn't been six months yet, as you say.

这里的观点是，银行家会说，人们现在不买股票，是因为他们担心锁定期一结束，股价就会进一步下跌？

Is the idea here that I mean, bankers would say, Oh, people are not buying the stock right now because they're nervous that when the lockup expires, then they can sort of expect some kind of a further tank?

是的，实际情况就是这样。

Yeah, mean, there's a reality there.

我认为总的来说，关键在于投资者希望观望这些公司在市值50亿到150亿美元区间的表现。

I think it's sort of overall, I think the takeaway is investors are wanting to wait and see sort of what happens with these companies in that sort of 5,000,000,000 to $15,000,000,000 market cap range.

他们想看看锁定期结束后股票表现如何。

They want to see how does it perform after the lockup expires.

他们更关心的是，这家公司到底表现如何？

They want to see how does the company more importantly, how does the company perform?

你知道吗？它们是否真的能一个季度接一个季度地兑现承诺？

Know, are they actually quarter after quarter doing what they said they were going to do?

这其实是上市公司一个非常基本的动态。

That's a pretty basic sort of dynamic of being a public company.

但当你没有像加密货币、人工智能或SpaceX那样的FOMO驱动、散户支撑时，人们就不会轻易给予你信任，因为他们未必会追逐这只股票。

But when you don't have the same sort of FOMO driven, retail driven backstop that a company that's in crypto or AI or a SpaceX would have, you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt because people are not chasing that stock necessarily.

对。

Right.

所以，科里，让我问你一个问题。

So let me ask you this, Corey.

你已经关注这个领域一段时间了，而且你也有深入研究特定公司的倾向。

You've been covering this space now for a while, and you also have a side of you that you really like to go deep on specific companies.

你应该说，你已经在《信息》工作了十年。

You've been at the Information now for ten years, we should say.

你刚刚庆祝了十周年纪念日，我们正在回顾往事。

You just celebrated your ten year anniversary, and we were taking a trip down memory lane.

你曾密切报道过像Airbnb这样的公司。

You covered companies like Airbnb closely.

更近一些，还有Scale AI。

I mean, more recently, there was Scale AI.

当你思考当前的公司时——不一定是上市前的公司——但进入2026年，对你来说，目前最令人着迷、你正在关注的新一年的公司是哪一个？

When you think about the companies out there right now, they don't have to be pre IPO companies, but what company going into 2026 is just the most fascinating business to you right now that you're watching into the new year?

哦，这很有趣。

Oh, that's interesting.

我的意思是，既然我搬到了洛杉矶，我确实正在更多地涉足国防科技领域。

I mean, given my move to Los Angeles, I definitely am trying to swim in the waters of defense tech a little bit more.

因此，在私营市场中，有一家公司叫Andoril，过去一年左右我写过不少关于它的文章，它现在正处于一个非常关键的时刻：估值高达300亿美元，年收入约20亿美元，似乎正受益于五角大楼态度的转变——更愿意向年轻、未经验证的公司发放合同。

And so you have a company in the private markets like Anderol, which I've written about a fair amount over the last year or so, where they're at this really interesting crucible moment where they're valued at $30,000,000,000 they're generating about $2,000,000,000 in revenue, they're benefiting seemingly from a shift in the Pentagon's sort of attitude towards sending contracts to younger, more unproven companies.

这家公司可能会在SpaceX之后一年左右上市，也许还会更久一些。

And this is going to be the company whose IPO, which will probably come, I don't know, a year after SpaceX, maybe a little bit longer.

我并没有关于这一点的确切信息。

I don't have exact information on that.

但它一定会在SpaceX之后上市，而且规模更小、更年轻。

But it'll be after SpaceX, and they are smaller, younger than SpaceX.

如果Andoril的IPO未能按计划进行，将对整个国防科技领域产生巨大影响，因为此前已有大量风投资金涌入这个领域。

If the Andoril IPO doesn't necessarily go according to plan, that's going to have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the entire defense tech class, so to speak, where there's been a ton of venture money going into it.

我推测，现在正涌现出大量这类晚期阶段的国防科技公司，它们都在追随Andoril的步伐，

And I presume there's a lot of these late stage defense tech companies popping up now that are sort of rallying And

但这些公司非常投机，实际收入极少。

very speculative, and they have very little actual revenue.

现在那个领域里有很多情绪驱动的投资。

There's a lot of vibe investing going on right now in that world.

其中一些显然是合法的，但你知道，风险投资。

Some of it's obviously legitimate, but you know, venture capital.

这是一项奖励你押注不确定事物的生意，显而易见。

It's a business where you're rewarded for taking bets that are not sure things, obviously.

很好。

Great.

科里，感谢你前来做客。

Well, Corey, I want to thank you for coming on.

我期待在新的一年里再次邀请你，聊聊国防科技、IPO，或者任何你感兴趣的话题，毕竟你十年来已经覆盖了所有领域，我对未来十年充满期待。

I look forward to having you on more in the New Year to talk about defense tech, or IPOs, or anything you want, really, because, well, you've covered it all in your ten years, and I'm excited for the next ten.

感谢你的参与。

Thank you for joining us.

这位是科里·温伯格，我们《信息》杂志的财经副主编。

That is Corey Weinberg, our Deputy Bureau Chief of Finance here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

正如我们刚才所讨论的，SpaceX有望在2026年上市。

SpaceX is up for a probable 2026 IPO, as we just talked about.

《The Information》几周前独家率先报道了这一消息，但目前一个更大的问题是，埃隆·马斯克能在多大程度上向华尔街讲述这家公司的故事，以及哪种故事最能打动投资者。

The Information was first to report that news exclusively a few weeks ago, but one of the bigger questions right now is the extent to which Elon Musk will be able to sell the company's story to Wall Street and what story might be the most effective pitch to investors.

关于这一点，目前有很多看法。

There are a lot of thoughts out there on this.

一位非常了解这一领域的人是Star Cloud的首席执行官兼联合创始人菲利普·约翰斯顿，我想邀请菲利普来帮助我们了解他对这个问题的看法。

One person who knows the space very well is Star Cloud CEO, co founder CEO and co founder Philip Johnston, and I want to bring on Philip to help us understand his thoughts on the matter.

菲利普，菲利普，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Philip, Philip, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

非常感谢你再次邀请我。

Thanks so much for having me back.

几周前，我们请了蒂姆·费里斯来做节目。

So we had Tim Ferrar on the show a weeks ago.

我们当时讨论了SpaceX的IPO，他提出了一个观点。

We were talking about the SpaceX IPO, and he made this point.

他说，埃隆把自己与‘太空数据中心’的故事绑定在一起，因为这是下一个大趋势，也是SpaceX成功上市所需要的营销故事。

He said, Elon is attaching himself to the data center in space story because it's the next big thing, and this is what SpaceX needs to market itself for a successful IPO.

你之前在X上发过一条帖子，反响不错。

And, you know, you had a tweet that did pretty well, or a post on X.

你说，嗯，那是个梗。

You said, you know, I won't it was a meme.

你想跟大家说说那个梗是什么吗？

Do wanna do you wanna tell people what the meme was?

我对他的观点可能不太客气，但我记不清了。

I I I think I was not particularly polite about his his opinion, but I don't remember.

那是个梗吗？

Was was it a meme?

嗯。

Yeah.

我不知道。

I don't know.

总之，是的。

Anyway, yes.

不是我。

It wasn't me.

是那只羞耻之蛙。

It was it was the frog of shame.

明白吗？

Okay?

就是那只青蛙

It was the frog

啊，羞耻之蛙。

of Oh, frog of shame.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

好的。

Okay.

记住啊。

Remember now.

所以，你看。

So and look.

羞耻之蛙获得的点赞比帖子还多，明白吗？这正是羞耻之蛙的意义所在。

The frog of shame got more likes than the post, okay, which is the whole point of the frog of shame.

所以我想知道的是，是什么促使你发布了‘羞耻青蛙’这条帖子？能跟我们说说你是怎么想的吗？

So what I wanna know is what prompted you to post the frog of shame, and tell us a little bit about how you're thinking about it.

嗯。

Yeah.

我觉得之前那条推文是我提到，说SpaceX因为担心业绩未达标而在太空中建数据中心，我觉得这是我最近听过最蠢的说法。

I I think that the tweet that had gone before that was me saying something along the lines of, to say that SpaceX is doing data centers in space for the story because it's worried about missing its numbers, I think I said was the dumbest thing I'd heard all in a quite a long time.

比如，SpaceX根本不用担心业绩未达标。

Like, SpaceX is not worried about missing its numbers.

SpaceX的收入增长故事，是历史上最令人印象深刻的公司收入增长案例之一。

SpaceX the SpaceX numbers growth story is one of the most impressive corporate revenue growth stories in history.

你知道，我觉得蒂姆说过，他们预测收入是155亿美元，但最终只能拿到150亿美元，这在我看来简直荒谬至极——他们居然因为这区区5亿美元的差额，就跑去太空中建数据中心，而三年前Starlink的收入几乎为零，现在却占了公司一半的收入。

You know, I think they Tim Tim was says Tim said something like they were worried because they had forecast 15,500,000,000.0, and they're only gonna get 15,000,000,000 of revenue, which to me is just like an absurd thing to say that now they're doing data centers in space because they're worried about half 1,000,000,000 miss on a basically, zero revenue in Starlink three years ago to now half the company's revenue.

我的意思是，这简直是收入增长的惊人故事。

I mean, it's it's an incredible growth story of revenue.

我的看法恰恰相反。

My my view is it's completely opposite.

SpaceX已经意识到，在太空中建立数据中心是最便宜的计算方式，他们需要资金，这就是他们准备上市的原因。

SpaceX has realized that doing data centers in space is the cheapest way to do compute, and they want cash for it, and that's why they're IPO ing.

我认为埃隆本人也基本确认了这一点——当然，你可以相信你愿意相信的，但我的理解是，他们的主要目的是筹集资金，用于建设太空数据中心，因为这需要大量的资本投入。

And I think Elon himself even confirmed basically I mean, maybe you can believe what you want, but my reading is that that's from broadly accurate is that they're trying to get cash to finance building data centers in space because it's pretty capital intensive.

是的。

Yeah.

但等等，不好意思。

But one one sorry.

现在听我说。

Now now hear me.

所以，我的意思是，我理解你的观点。

And so I I mean, I I take your point.

这是一家私营公司，所以很难知道确切的预测数据。

It's a private company, so forecasts are they're hard to know what the exact forecasts are.

我认为我从蒂姆那里得到的一个观点是，如果你真的想成为一家上市公司，你就必须向投资者提供一些指引或至少做出评论，确保你知道自己会处于那个区间内，而不是持续低于预期。

I think one of the points that I took from Tim was that if you do want to be a public company, you will have to give some guidance or commentary at least to investors and at least know that you're going to be in that range and not consistently fall short.

我的意思是，在太空领域这样做很难吗？

I mean, is that tough to do in the space category?

我觉得正是因为太空领域正处于蓬勃发展阶段，所以在2026年甚至2027年成为一家上市的太空公司可能很难。

It feels like just because of how burgeoning the space is, I mean, it might be hard to be a public space company in 2026 or even 'twenty seven.

也许吧。

Maybe.

但预测15.5亿却只拿到15亿，这种事可能是已经上市上百年的公司才会做的。

But, forecasting fifteen fifteen point five and getting 15 is the kind of thing that a company that's been public for, like, a hundred years might do.

你知道吗？

You know?

或者，甚至说，那些更成熟的企业。

If or or even, you know, more established companies.

如果像英伟达、苹果或其他任何公司这么做，也不会算是史上最离谱的业绩失误。

If, you know, if Nvidia or Apple or anybody else were to do that, it wouldn't be like the most crazily outrageous, miss of all time.

所以，老实说，他们在预测数字方面已经相当准确了，而且只会越来越准，因为他们的初始收入来源是全球最稳定、最可预测的现金流之一。

So, I mean, they're getting pretty accurate at forecasting the numbers, to be honest, and it's only gonna get more accurate because the starting revenue stream is, like, one of the most stable cash, for most predictable cash flow streams in the in the entire in the entire world.

我的意思是，我想不出还有什么比这更稳定的现金流了。

I mean, I can't think of a more stable cash flow, bit better stream than than that.

所以，是的，我认为它只会变得越来越稳定。

So, yeah, I think it's gonna I think it's only gonna get even more and more stable.

让我问你一个问题。

So let me ask you this.

你应该提醒大家，StarCloud——我是说，你们是首批，甚至是最早一批将这些芯片送入太空的公司之一，而且我看到你们最近发布了一则公告，称你们已经在太空中训练模型了。

You are and we should remind folks that StarCloud, I mean, you are the first, if not one of the first companies to really get some of these chips out into space, and I saw that you recently put out an announcement that you've been training models in space as well.

我认为人们可能对蒂姆的评论做出反应的另一个方面是，埃隆·马斯克喜欢把自己与大胆的使命联系在一起，对吧？

I think the other part that people might be reacting to from Tim's comments is this idea that Elon Musk has a you know, he likes to attach himself to bold missions, right?

而这些使命有时可能需要三年、十三年。

And those missions sometimes can be three years, thirteen years.

我的意思是，很难知道这些使命何时才能真正实现商业化。

I mean, it's really hard to know when that will actually become a commercializable operation.

那么，太空中的AI数据中心——我的意思是，你认为什么时候它能为任何企业，包括你们自己，带来持续的收入？

So AI data centers in space, I mean, what is your timeline on when you think that could be generating consistent revenue for any business, let alone yourself?