OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的动荡一周、全球内存芯片短缺以及 23andMe 的非营利计划

欢迎各位收看Information的TITV。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.

我叫阿卡什·马斯里查。

My name is Akash Masricha.

今天是3月6日，星期五。

It is Friday, March 6.

今天我们为大家准备了一场内容丰富的节目。

We have got a busy show lined up for you today.

在进入正题之前，我想提一下我们新闻部昨晚发布的两条重磅新闻。

Before we get there, I wanna flag two big scoops our newsroom published last night.

在线零售公司Quince正在与投资者洽谈，计划以100亿美元的估值融资。

Quince, the online retail company, is talking to investors about raising money at a $10,000,000,000 valuation.

这将是其上一轮估值的两倍。

That would be double its last valuation.

此外，新兴云领域快速增长的公司Together AI也在洽谈以75亿美元的估值融资。

And separately, Together AI, a fast growing company in the neo clouds category, is in talks to raise funding at a $7,500,000,000 valuation.

这也将是其上一轮估值的两倍。

That too would be double its last valuation.

这两则新闻都在我们的网站上。

Both of those stories are on our website.

我鼓励你们去查看一下。

I encourage you to check them out.

今天在节目中，我们将深入剖析Anthropic与美国国防部之间的最新动态。

Today on the show, we are unpacking the latest in Anthropic saga with the Department of Defense.

我们将邀请两位我们的顶级编辑进行分析，同时讨论本周摩根士丹利科技大会上的热门话题。

We'll bring on two of our top editors for their analysis and also talk about what the talk of the town was at this week's big Morgan Stanley Tech Conference.

随后，我们将邀请Robinhood的首席财务官，聊聊他们今天上市的新公开交易风险基金。

We're then bringing on Robinhood CFO for a conversation about their new publicly traded venture fund that is listing today.

这是他们希望让公众投资者能够投资私营公司的努力的一部分。

It is all part of their hope to give public investors access to private companies.

我们还收到了亚洲分社的另一篇报道，讲述内存芯片短缺如何推动中国本土芯片制造商的发展。

We also have another dispatch from our Asia Bureau on how the memory chip crunch is boosting local China chip makers.

最后，本周我们的周末深度阅读主题是23andMe。

And finally, our weekend big read this week is about 23andMe.

我们的健康与科学记者艾米·多克瑟·马库斯采访了创始人兼首席执行官安·沃伊西基，这是她回购公司并将其转为非营利组织后的首次长时间访谈。

Our health and science reporter, Amy Dockser Marcus, sat down with founder and CEO, Anne Wojcicki, for her first extended conversation since she bought back the company and turned it into a nonprofit.

我会和艾米一起梳理这些内容，谈谈沃伊西基告诉她的那些事。

I'm gonna unpack all of that with Amy and talk about what Wojcicki told her.

这将是一期有趣的节目，我们马上开始。

It's gonna be a fun show, so let's get right on into it.

Anthropic、OpenAI与美国国防部之间的关系在过去一周又经历了诸多动态变化。

It has been another busy week for the dynamics between Anthropic and OpenAI and the Department of Defense.

另外，本周我们还发布了大量关于OpenAI在购物和广告领域野心的新报道。

And on a different note, we have also published a lot of new reporting this week about OpenAI's shopping and advertising ambitions.

为了在本期《编辑精选》中深入剖析这一切，我想邀请我们的联合执行主编马丁·皮尔斯和主编劳拉·曼达罗。

To unpack it all on this week's edition of the Editor's Cut, I wanna bring on our co executive editor, Martin Peers, and our managing editor, Laura Mandaro.

马丁、劳拉，欢迎你们两位。

Martin and Laura, welcome to you both.

很高兴你来这里。

It's great to have you here.

嗨。

Hey.

嗨，凯尔。

Hey, Kyle.

好的。

Okay.

令人兴奋。

Exciting.

星期五。

Friday.

我们开始吧。

Let's do it.

马丁，我想先从你开始。

Martin, I wanna start with you.

你对达里奥昨晚的声明有什么看法？

What did you make of Dario's statement last night?

我觉得他的发言非常平和。

I thought it was a very even keeled statement.

我想说，他道歉其实是可以预料的，因为我根本没料到他会道歉。

I would like to say it was predictable that he would apologize because I hadn't predicted it.

而且他为备忘录的语气道歉了，而我们提前曝光了那份备忘录，里面他似乎提到必须对特朗普进行独裁式吹捧。

And he did apologize for the tone of his memo, which we had scooped, where he called I think he made some comment about having to make dictator style praise to Trump.

所以我觉得他的声明很不错。

So I thought it was a good statement.

他真正剖析了这个问题，表现得非常聪明，深入了细节。

He really takes apart the issue and really comes across as smart and getting into the details.

可惜的是，他所处的政府倾向于大喊大叫，我觉得他们根本不在同一个频道上。

Unfortunately, he's dealing with an administration which tends to yell about things, I don't think they're really operating on the same wavelength.

但我觉得他看起来很聪明，正如我所说。

But I think he looks smart, as I said.

他稍微深入探讨了什么是供应链风险，这个定义是什么，以及它涵盖的范围。

And so he got a little bit into the details of what it means to be a supply chain risk, what the definition is, what it limits to.

但据我们理解，马丁，能否帮我们理清一下，这种认定对Anthropic合作的公司来说可能构成多大的生存性风险？

But as far as we understand, Martin, just help us understand how existential a risk this designation could be for the companies that Anthropic worked with.

这种影响的范围会有多广？

How broad could this be?

这可能会非常广泛，因为政府最初的声明表明，Anthropic将无法与任何人合作。

Well, it could have been very broad because the original statement that the government had made indicated that Anthropic wouldn't be able to work with anybody.

这几乎让人觉得他们可能会因此倒闭。

It almost made it seem like they might go out of business.

但微软昨晚表示，他们仔细研究了政府实际发布的声明，发现影响并没有那么广泛，实际上仅限于Anthropic与国防部相关公司的合作。

But Microsoft said last night that they had looked at the statement the government has actually issued and it's not as broad and it really only affects Anthropic's ability to work with companies as it regards the Defense Department.

所以这可能并不会造成太大影响。

So it probably won't be such a big deal.

劳拉，从你们的角度看，硅谷对此有何反应？

Laura, what's the reaction mean across Silicon Valley from your end?

你知道，这一系列事件相当引人入胜，因为通常来说，政治——无论是国内政治还是地缘政治——往往只是短暂地成为关注焦点，人们更关心的可能是新产品的发布，或者某位CEO、顶尖研究员从一家公司跳槽到另一家公司。

Well, you know, this has been sort of a riveting series of events in a way that I don't think You know, politics sort of tends to National politics or geopolitics tends to rise up and fade as a cause of concern, people can be a lot more excited about a new product release or, you know, some CEO moving or top researcher even moving from company to company.

但这一次，国家政治真正打破了这种新闻流动的常态。

And this is one of the times when national politics has really punctured that flow of news.

我的意思是，昨晚我们估值报告的投资银行记者，一位非常出色的交易促成者，刚来过。

I mean, I think that, you know, we had a very nice dealmaker come from Valita, our report our investment banking reporter last night.

我认为，这一切都发生在这两家公司为争夺商业主导权而展开的激烈竞争背景下——姑且这么说吧。

I I think this is all happening against the context of a very fierce battle between these two companies for sort of business supremacy, for lack of a better word.

OpenAI 当然更早成立。

OpenAI is older, of course.

它的规模也大得多。

It's far bigger.

如果它们成功筹集到目前正在进行的这1100亿美元，那它们筹集的资金将远超对手。

If they raise this entire 110,000,000,000 that they're in the middle of raising, we'll have raised far more money.

但正如我们的记者Sri本周报道的，以及其他媒体所指出的，Anthropic在收入方面正迅速迎头赶上。

But Anthropic, as, our reporter, Sri, reported, this week and others have reported, is really catching up very quickly in terms of revenue.

而这部分是因为他们的Cloud Code代理非常成功。

And, that's, in part because their Cloud Code agent has been very, very successful.

他们去年刚刚发布了它。

They just released it last year.

甚至在此之前，支撑其他编码代理发展的底层模型和API就已经表现得极为出色，是最受欢迎的。

And even before that, the underlying models, the API that was helping other coding agents grow was sort of off the charts and the most popular.

所以我认为，尽管人们对这些公司如何与五角大楼打交道有着各种哲学观点，但投资者们也非常关注另一个问题：哪家公司会成为更强大的财务实体，哪家会率先上市？

So I think that while people have sort of philosophical views about how these companies are dealing with the Pentagon, there's also, and very much so of course from the investors, this conversation about, okay, who's going to be the sort of stronger financial company and who goes public first?

对。

Right.

我能就这一点插几句吗？

And can I just jump in there on that point?

这是一个非常重要的观点，即如果你在关注这些公司的IPO，Anthropic所面临的这个问题将不利于其上市。

That's a very important point, which is if you're looking at the IPOs of these companies, this issue that Anthropic faces is not going to help them if they're trying to go public.

没有人愿意投资一家正遭受政府攻击的公司。

No one wants to invest in a company which is being attacked by the government.

而且，Throbby可能希望在上市前解决这个问题。

And Throbby probably wants to get this resolved before they go public.

劳拉，昨晚瓦莉塔写的那篇文章中让我印象深刻的一点是，在摩根士丹利科技大会上。

Laura, one of the things that struck me from the column last night that Valita wrote was at the Morgan Stanley Tech Conference.

似乎人们对萨姆·阿尔特曼管理公司的方式和达里奥管理公司的方式有着不同的看法。

There seemed to be differing perspectives around just the way that Sam Altman is managing his company and the way that Dario has managed his company.

他们可以说是两种不同的策略。

They're sort of two different playbooks.

我的意思是，他们也希望你这么认为，对吧？

I mean, they would also like you to think that very much, right?

达里奥总是不停地谈论文化和使命，这正是Anthropic的核心理念。

Mean, Dario talks a lot, a lot, a lot about culture and the mission, and that's the whole, premise of Anthropic.

他因为对OpenAI的发展方向存在明显分歧，而离开了OpenAI，和他的妹妹以及其他一些人。

Mean, he left OpenAI and his sister and some others over apparent disagreements about OpenAI's direction.

而且值得注意的是，我们一直没能从公司内部获得太多关于公司如何与员工沟通的信息。

And you know, notably, we have not been able to break much from inside the company in terms of, you know, how the company talks to its employees.

除了那个晚上。

Except for the other night.

是的，而这正是

Yes, and that's what

当我们逐一曝光一系列故事时，你根本没法睡觉。

made When that we broke literally a string of stories one by one, you literally couldn't go to sleep.

它们接连不断。

They just kept coming.

但我觉得，那份备忘录——或者Anthropic会说，那只是个Slack消息，根本不是备忘录——对我们和其他记者来说，曝光这件事确实很不寻常。

Well, but I mean, the memo, or I think Anthropic would just say this is a Slack, it wasn't even a memo, was unusual for us and other reporters to break that.

而其他公司，比如Meta和OpenAI，我们和其他记者已经曝光了大量新闻。

Whereas other companies, there's a lot of news that we and others have broken about Meta, for instance, and OpenAI.

OpenAI宣布进入红色警戒状态。

OpenAI declares a code red.

我们曝光了这条新闻。

We have broken that news.

所以我认为这在一定程度上反映了公司的文化，非常紧密。

So I think that somewhat speaks to the culture, that it's very tight.

人们在从事Anthropic的事务上相当一致。

People are kind of aligned in terms of what they're doing with Anthropic.

我认为，很难有公司能长期维持这种状态。

It's very hard for companies to sustain that, I would say.

而它仅仅是一家五年历史的公司。

And it's only what, a five year old company.

但到目前为止，他们似乎就像一个志同道合的研究团体。

But so far they seem to be kind of one tribe of like minded research.

劳拉正在揭示新闻业的秘密。

Laura is revealing the secret of journalism.

我们依赖那些充满分歧、不满，且有人愿意泄露信息的公司。

We thrive on companies where there's a lot of dissension and unhappiness and people willing to sort of leak stuff.

当公司都变成一团和气时，我们真的不高兴。

And we really do not like it when companies are all happy families.

这对我们来说行不通。

That doesn't really work for us.

嗯，确实如此。

Well, yeah.

我的意思是，这其实反映了Anthropic公司所面临的核心问题。

I mean, think that this kind of speaks to the what's at stake here for Anthropic.

你知道，马丁提到的合同可能也没那么大，对吧？

Think, you know, what Martin's getting to in terms of the contract may not be that big, right?

我的意思是，即使整个五角大楼的合同金额是两亿美元，对于一家预计2020年收入达到数十亿美元的公司来说，也并不算什么。

I mean, even the entire Pentagon contract of $200,000,000 is just not that big, you know, for a company that's, you know, on track 19 to

2020年要达到十亿美元，是的。

billion dollars in '20 Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，即使失去五角大楼的合同，他们也不会受到太大影响吗？

So could they lose the Pentagon contract without making a big dent?

是的。

Yes.

而且，我认为这还存在其他漏洞。

And, I think there are other vulnerabilities to that.

我的意思是，也许这种与政府的合作会为其他大型企业客户打开大门，因为它带来了一种重要性和光环效应。

I mean, maybe this work with the government opens the door to other big corporate customers because it gets a sense of significance, halo effect.

如果你有这项合作，你就成了一个成熟的公司IT供应商。

You are an established corporate IT vendor if you have this.

我对此比任何事都更感兴趣。

I'm curious about that more than anything.

但另一方面，达里奥的做法在某种程度上似乎与他吸引众多顶尖研究人员的使命相矛盾，他会不会因此失去这一切？

But on the other hand, Dario does something that seems to be very hypocritical in terms of this mission that he's been able to attract so many top notch researchers to, does he lose that?

正如我们和其他人所报道的，人才争夺战依然激烈，

And as we, as others have reported, it's really a war for talent still with

这些马丁，AI，好吧，非常快速地说，达里奥在他的声明中说，我们别无选择，只能在法庭上挑战这一决定。

these Martin, AI okay, so very quickly, I mean, Dario said in his statement, he said, We really have no choice but to challenge this in court.

那么，你认为接下来几个月这件事最终会如何发展？

So how do you think this ultimately plays out over the next couple months?

嗯，我看到一些了解法律的人评论说，政府的案子并不太有力。

Well, I have seen commentary from people who understand the laws suggesting that the government does not have a very strong case.

我认为这会像特朗普做的许多事情一样，法院会阻止他。

I think this will be like many of the things that Trump done where the courts will block him.

所以这是我预期的结果。

So that's my expectation.

这只会陷入一场漫长的诉讼中。

This will just get stuck in some sort of long court battle.

好的。

Okay.

还有，马丁，我们本周有一系列关于OpenAI最新野心的报道，现在他们还涉足了购物和广告技术领域。

And very quickly, Martin, we had this string of stories this week on OpenAI's revised ambitions now in shopping and in ad tech too.

购物确实让我感到意外，因为他们之前描绘的愿景非常宏大，涵盖了平台内的一切。

Shopping was really the thing that I think took me by surprise, think, because they'd really painted this very broad vision of everything that will happen inside the platform.

现在他们却说，也许不会了。

And now they're saying, maybe not.

比如，这意味着什么？

Like, what does that

让人疑惑？

make wonder?

他们为什么在宣布之前没想清楚这一点？

Why did they not figure this out before they announced it?

这正是艾米说的。

And that's is Amy

他们当时忙着写代码、处理GitHub和社交媒体宣传。

They were busy doing coding and GitHub and social media campaigns.

打几个电话问问：嘿，老兄，这个聊天功能实现起来有多难？要花多久？

How long would it have taken to make a couple of phone calls and say, hey, dude, how hard is it to do this thing in the chat?

什么？

What?

很难吗？

It's hard?

挺难的，实际上真的很难。

Let's figure Pretty hard, pretty hard actually.

嗯，我的意思是。

Well, well, I mean.

劳拉会为它辩护

Laura's going to defend

西梅尔。

Simmel.

好的。

Okay.

我们看看。

Let's see.

哦，不。

Oh, no.

没关系。

It's okay.

这是一个

It's a

好故事。

good story.

不。

No.

我想听。

I wanna hear it.

我想听。

I wanna hear it.

我想听。

I wanna hear it.

我的意思是，这实际上可能支持你的观点，但进行社交媒体购物真的很难。

Well, I mean, this actually may support your case, but it's been very hard to do social media shopping.

你知道吗，我觉得曾经有个梗是关于As的

As you know, I think there was some meme about As

我们写过，他们所有要做的就是阅读，我们应该向OpenAI的人解释一下，订阅这些信息并阅读背景资料。

we've written, all they All had was read your they had to do, and we should explain to the OpenAI people, get a subscription to the information and read the background.

然后他们想宣布一些不成功的东西。

Then they want to announce things that don't work.

我认为我们需要更多的报告来了解为什么会出现这种情况。我确实觉得这么快就叫停某项工作有些不同寻常，但去年秋天我们报告过，Gemini最新版本发布后表现极其出色，OpenAI表示：好吧，我们必须缩小范围，削减一些旁支项目。

I think we need more reporting to know why this And I do think maybe it is unusual to pull the plug on something so soon, but we reported back last fall that after Gemini's latest release was so fantastic, OpenAI said, Okay, we gotta narrow our scope, and we're gonna trim some of the side projects.

这是红色警报。

It's a code red.

我们将全力聚焦于模型。

We're gonna really focus on the model.

我怀疑

Suspect that

关于那个。

about has that.

这是一次红色警报。

This is a code red.

他们已经收缩了。

They have pulled back.

是的。

Yeah.

但问题是，他们不能再称其为红色警报了，因为那样的话我们就得

But it's just but but they can't call it a code red anymore because then we'll

红色警报会让你什么都不敢做。

Well, the Code Red makes makes you not do everything.

对吧？

Right?

他们以前是无所不做的。

They were doing everything.

他们或许已经有所收缩了。

They've somewhat narrowed perhaps.

我不确定我们是否完全确定它们是相关的，但这样想是合乎逻辑的。

I don't know if we totally know that they're they're linked, but it would be logical.

是的。

Yeah.

不过，正如我们在Pinterest上了解到的，你可以为多个部门发出代码红警报，也可以在许多不同部门发出代码红警报。

Although, as we know from Pinterest, I mean, you can call multiple co reds, and you can call co reds in many different departments.

当然。

Sure.

好的。

Okay.

好吧，我想感谢你们两位的到来。

Well, look, I wanna thank you both for coming on.

这周很忙，我预计下周会更忙。

It was a busy week, and I anticipate next week will be even busier.

这位是我们的联合执行主编马丁·皮尔斯，以及我们的执行主编劳拉·曼达罗，他们都来自《The Information》。

That is Martin Peers, our co executive editor, and Laura Mandaro, our managing editor, here at The Information.

Robinhood 正在推出一只新的公开交易基金，该基金将追踪私营公司的表现。

Robinhood is debuting their new publicly tradable fund that will track the performance of private companies.

这只新基金旨在让公众投资者接触到一些全球最大的私营公司，包括 Ramp、Revolut、Aura、Databricks 等。

The new fund is meant to give public investors exposure to some of the world's biggest private companies, including Ramp, Revolut, Aura, Databricks, and more.

为了更深入地探讨公司希望通过这只基金实现的战略目标，我邀请到 Robinhood 的首席财务官 Shiv Verma。

To talk more about what the company is hoping to achieve strategically with this fund, I wanna bring on Robinhood CFO, Shiv Verma.

Shiv，欢迎来到节目。

Shiv, welcome to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you here.

Nell，谢谢。

Nell, thank you.

很期待和你聊天。

Excited to chat with you.

那么，你们是如何决定这只基金包含哪些资产的？

So how did you guys decide on on what is in this fund?

是的

Yeah.

很好的问题。

Great questions.

我们总是从客户出发。

We always start with the customer.

所以我们与客户沟通，问他们想要什么？

So we talked to our customer and we said, what do you want?

对他们来说，他们感觉最近被排除在一些顶尖的前沿科技和后期增长型公司之外。

And for them, they felt that they were being left out of some of these best in class frontier technology names of late stage growth.

因此，我们为首个基金努力争取投资这些公司，非常兴奋的是，我们的首批投资组合已经包含了八个优秀的公司，其中一些你提到了，现在我们又筹集了更多资本以继续投资。

So we set about for our first fund to try to get access to some of these names, and we're super excited that for the first portfolio, we already contributed eight fantastic names, some of which you mentioned, and now we've raised more capital to continue to invest.

好的，我对这八个公司很好奇。

Okay, and I am curious about the eight names.

我的意思是，你们已经选了Aura，或许你们本可以选Whoop这样的公司，你知道的？

I mean, so look, I mean, you have Aura in there, maybe you could have gone with a company like Whoop, you know?

我在考虑可穿戴设备领域。

I'm thinking about the wearable space.

你们有Databricks，你知道，也许还有另一家公司，你们是怎么选出这八家的？

You have Databricks, you know, maybe there's another company, how did you decide on the eight?

是的，好问题。

Yeah, great question.

我们对每一项投资进行评估，并寻找几个关键因素。

So we underwrite each investment and we look for a couple things.

我们是否相信这是该领域的技术领导者？

Do we believe this is a technology leader in their space?

我们希望长期投资于赢家。

We wanna be in the winners over the long term.

第二，我们关注长期的内部收益率，即我们相信它们在未来多年能实现的回报，同时我们也会倾听客户的意见。

Second, we look at the long term IRRs, what do we believe they can do over multiple years, then and we also listen to our customers.

我们了解客户对哪些公司感兴趣，当我们与他们交流时，他们会关注人工智能领域的公司、具有消费者品牌影响力的公司，以及他们认为在各自类别中处于领先地位的公司。

We understand what kind of names they're interested in, and when we talk to them, they look at AI names, names that are consumer branded, names that they think are leaders in category.

所以这有点自上而下。

So it's a little bit of tops down.

我们从客户那里听到了什么？

What are we hearing from customers?

你觉得什么有趣？

What do think is interesting?

然后我们自下而上，对每个项目进行评估。

Then we bottoms up, underwrite each name.

好的。

Okay.

换句话说，实际上它是像风险投资基金一样管理的，你们的投资者会战略性地选择一家公司而非另一家。

So in other words, it's actually then managed like a venture fund in terms of you have investors that are choosing one company over the other strategically.

哦，完全没错。

Oh, 100%, yeah.

所以我们聘请了一位经验丰富的投资组合经理。

So we brought in house a seasoned portfolio manager.

她的名字是莎拉·平托。

Her name is Sarah Pinto.

她之前是硅谷的成长型投资者，投资过许多这些杰出的企业，因此她组建了一支投资团队，我们正在积极外出寻找并接触公司，对其进行评估，然后选择那些最符合客户和投资组合需求的企业。

She was previously a growth investor in Silicon Valley and had invested in many of these great names, and so she's built out an investment team, and we are actively going out and sourcing and talking to companies and underwriting them, and then choosing which names we think are the best fit for the customer and in the portfolio.

好的，那么从操作层面来说，当这些公司上市时，如果它们确实上市了，基金的权重会发生什么变化？这些回报又是如何返还给投资者的呢？

Okay, and then, so mechanically then, when these companies do go public, if they do go public, then what happens to the weightings of the fund and how do those returns come back to the investors then?

是的，很好的问题。

Yeah, great question.

封闭式基金的优势在于，你可以在公司私有阶段买入，也可以在IPO时买入，甚至在它们上市后继续持有或增持。

So the beauty of a closed end fund is you can buy them when they're private, you can buy the IPO, and you can actually hold or buy more of them when they're public.

因此，即使它们上市了，我们仍会继续对其进行评估。

So even when they go public, we'll continue to underwrite them.

如果我们选择出售这项投资，我们会将实现的收益的90%分配给股东和客户。

If we choose to sell the investment, we then take the realized gains and 90% of it gets distributed to the shareholders, and back to customers.

因此，这个基金的另一个优势是享有良好的税收优惠——基金本身无需缴税，客户也不会面临双重征税。

And so the beauty of the fund is also they get great tax advantage, and so the fund itself doesn't get taxed, and the customer doesn't pay the double taxation.

所以从宏观上看，如果一家公司上市了，而我们选择卖出，我们会将大部分收益分配给客户，然后客户可以自行决定如何处理这些资金。

So big picture, if a company goes public and we choose to sell, we distribute most of the gains out to customers, and then they can choose to do what they would like with it.

现在，我想了解你作为CFO对何时上市、是否上市这个问题的看法。

Now, I'm curious about your perspective as a CFO on this issue of when to go public, if to go public.

我的意思是，你投资组合中的这些公司已经在私募市场成功融资，证明了它们能够满足自身的资本需求。

I mean, you have companies in this portfolio that can raise money and have shown they can raise money in the private markets and satisfy their capital requirements there.

嗯，这要看情况。

Know, look, it depends.

如果你需要获得足够的资本，那你必须是一家顶尖水平的公司才行。

You have to be a best in class company to do that if you need to get the capital that you can get.

但如今上市还有价值吗？

But is there still value in going public today?

你觉得我作为CFO在问你，如果这些顶尖公司能在私募市场轻松融到资，还有必要上市吗？

Do you think I'm asking you as a CFO, if you could just get the money in the private markets for some of these top names.

好问题。

Great question.

我们相信，每一家公司，尤其是顶尖的公司，都应该上市，原因有几点。

We believe that every company, in particular the best in class companies, should be public for a few reasons.

第一，美国公开股票市场是全球最深、资金最充裕的资本池。

One, The US public equities market is the deepest coolant deepest pool of capital in the world.

所以，尽管许多公司确实可以在私募市场筹集资金，但这种能力是有限的；而公开市场要大上十到一百倍，而且对于那些略低一档的公司而言，它们可能根本无法获得这些同等规模的资本池。

So while yes, many of these companies can raise private capital, that only goes so far, the public markets is 10 to a 100 times larger, and on top of that for the category of companies that are even one tier below, they might not have access to these same comp pools of capital.

因此，我们认为每个人都应该上市。

So we think everybody should be public.

我也认为，上市能带来纪律性。

I also think that it brings discipline.

你问我，以我CFO的身份，我是怎么想的。

You asked me what I believe is my CFO hat.

我们着眼于长期发展，我们说过不会按季度做决策，但身处公众视野中，会迫使你做出优先级排序，迫使你保持自律，并促使你更加成熟。因此，为了获得更大的资本池，理解上市的意义以及它带来的纪律性，我们确实认为对许多公司而言，上市是一件好事。

We build for the long term, we said we don't make decisions on a quarterly basis, but being in the public eye, it forces you to prioritize, it forces you to be disciplined, and it brings you to be more mature, and so in order to access bigger pools of capital, and understand what it means to be public and the discipline it brings, actually think it's a great thing for many of these companies to go public.

最后，我想补充一点，它还能带来新的股东基础。

And then lastly, I'll add, it does bring a new base.

如今，散户投资者占美国公开股票市场的25%，因此上市也让这些顶尖公司能够与背后的零售消费者分享收益。

So retail is 25% of The US equities public markets today, and so going public also allows some of these best in class companies to share the gains with their underlying retail consumer as well.

那么，你如何调和这一点与近期IPO的表现呢？

Now, how do you square that then with the way that IPOs as of late have fared?

我的意思是，你看一些新上市的公司，并不是每家科技公司都能如预期般在上市初期取得成功。

I mean, you look at some of the new issuances, not every tech company has done as well as they would have hoped, I think, out of the gate.

而且，你知道，我们现在面临着市场波动。

And, you know, we've got this market volatility.

我的意思是，你难道不打算应对这种波动吗？

I mean, do you then square that with, I don't even wanna deal with the volatility.

也许保持私有化反而更好。

Maybe it's better just to be private.

是的，这是个很好的问题。

Yeah, it's a great question.

从短期来看，你确实需要应对波动，我们完全承认这一点。

In the short term, you do have to deal with the volatility, we're 100% acknowledge that.

我认为，从长远来看，如果你选择上市，你会看到收益重新回升并持续增长。因此，虽然躲在私募市场、不必面对公开市场可能看起来很惬意，但上市实际上带来了我之前提到的纪律性。

I think over the longer term if you are public though, you will see the gains come back and continue to confine, and so while it might be nice to hide in the private markets and not have to deal with the public markets, coming in actually brings like I mentioned the discipline before.

所以，如果你看看Robinhood自己的历史，我们上市后，和许多其他公司一样，在市场波动时股价下跌了。

So if you look at Robinhood's own history, we went public and similar to many others, when markets were volatile, we went down.

而今天，我们已经成为一家市值700亿美元的标普500上市公司，这正是因为经历了这一过程，我们经历了起起落落。是的，情况不同，但我确实认为，让公司置身于阳光下，看清自己的真实价值，反而更好。

And today, we're now a $70,000,000,000 S and P 500 public company, and it's because we went through the journey, we've been through the ups and downs, and so yeah, it's different, but I do think it's actually better for the company to see what they're worth in the light of day.

那么，当你观察过去六个月上市的科技公司股价表现时，这些走势并不让你担忧吗？因为这正是你所说的Robinhood所经历的路径。

So when you look at the stock prices then of companies that have gone public, tech companies in the last six months, and you look at the way those have fared, that doesn't concern you then because that was basically the path that you're saying Robinhood had.

是的，从短期来看，你确实会面临一些波动。

Yeah, it's in the short term, so you may have some short term volatility.

我不认为你应该在公司上市三年、五年甚至十年之前就对其做出评判。对于许多公司来说，他们专注于客户，持续建设业务，只要做得好，最终一定会获得应有的估值。

I don't think you should judge any IPO until it's been three, five, even ten years, and so for many of these companies, they're focused on their customers, they're continuing to build, and if they do well, they will eventually be valued appropriately.

如果短期内出现波动，那就是公开市场的本质——总有人想买，也总有人想卖。但如果是我的话，就像Robinhood经历的那样，我会专注于客户，专注于长期发展，然后三年、五年后再回头看他们的表现。

If there's volatility in the short term, that's the nature of public markets, there's always someone who wants to buy and always someone who wants to sell, but if I were them, the same thing that happened to Robinhood, I would focus on the customer, I'd focus on the long term, and then I look out three, five years, and then see how they did.

对。

Right.

我想问问你关于预测市场的事，这是罗宾汉正在深入涉足的另一个令人兴奋的领域。

I wanna ask you about prediction markets, is another exciting area that Robinhood is wading deeper into.

从商业角度来看，有人提到你们在预测市场的第一年就实现了3亿美元的年化收入。

On the business side of things, I mean, guys have said that you have that you did $300,000,000 in annualized revenue in your first year for prediction markets.

你们今年预计能达到多少？

How much are you projecting it's gonna be this year?

是的，我们还没有对预测市场的具体数据给出预测。

Yeah, so we haven't given a forecast for the actual prediction.

我们之前提到，去年年底的收入约为3亿美元。

We said we ended last year about 300,000,000.

这是一个很棒的业务。

It's a great business.

这对客户来说很棒，提供了更多参与机会。

It's great for customers, it brings access.

如果你看看我们最近一个季度的数据，收入超过了13亿美元，年化收入约为50亿美元。

If you look at our most recent quarter, we did over 1,300,000,000.0 of revenue, so annualized about 5,000,000,000.

虽然3亿美元已经相当可观，但它在我们整体业务中仍占比较小，但我们喜欢它的原因是，它是一个全新的资产类别。

So while it's 300,000,000 substantial, it's still a relatively smaller portion of our overall business, but for us, the reason we like it is, it is a new asset class.

我们认为预测市场正处于一个超级周期的开端。

We believe we're at the super cycle of prediction markets.

我们才刚刚开始。

We're just getting started.

最重要的是，我们正在为客户提供他们想要的东西，让他们接触到这个全新的新兴资产类别。

And most importantly, we're giving customers what they want and access to this brand new emerging asset class.

你认为预测市场在我们整体收入中可能占多大比例？

What percent of your overall revenue do you think prediction markets could be?

通常我们不会做这样的预测。

You know, usually don't forecast that out.

就像我之前说的，它今天在整体中占比相对较小。

Again, like what I said, it's a relatively small portion of today.

我不介意更大比例的收入来自股票交易、期权交易或净利息收入。

I don't mind if a larger portion is equities trading, or options trading, or from net interest revenue.

对我们来说，再次强调，如果你真正以客户为中心，关注客户需求并打造优秀的产品，那么收入成果自然会水到渠成。

For us, and again, sounds like a brokered record, if you really focus on the customer, if you focus on the inputs and build great products, then the outputs of revenue will take care of themselves.

所以预测市场很棒，如果未来它能成为更大一部分，那就再好不过了。

And so prediction markets is great, and if it chooses to be a larger portion over time, fantastic.

至于加密货币，目前市场上波动非常大。

With crypto, right now, you know, there's a there's a lot of volatility in the market.

我们仍在持续建设，我们认为这非常有前景。

We still are building, we think it's great.

加密货币目前约占我们收入的18%，在整体占比中相对较小，但从长远来看，各种业务会周期性轮动。

It's about 18% of our revenue, so relatively small in the overall portion, but big picture things will cycle over time.

有时是经纪业务，有时是加密货币，有时是预测市场。

Sometimes it'll be brokerage, sometimes it'll be crypto, sometimes it'll be prediction markets.

我们还提到，我们一直在多元化发展，目前已有11个业务线的年经常性收入（ARR）超过一亿美元，因此，当你持续打造更多这类产品时，只要始终服务好客户，收入成果自然会显现。

We've also said we've we've been diversifying, so we have 11 business lines that do over a 100,000,000 of ARR today, and so as you keep building more and more of these products, again, you take care of the customers and then you'll see it in the outputs of revenue.

你们有11个业务线各自都做到了一亿美元，那第十二个会是什么？

You have 11 businesses doing a 100,000,000, what's gonna be the twelfth?

我们在上一次财报电话会上提到，有两个业务正变得非常接近。

So we said on our last earnings call, there's two that are getting really close.

Robinhood Legend，也就是我们的网页产品，以及我们推出的首张信用卡——Robinhood金卡。

Robinhood Legend, which is our web product, and the Robinhood Gold Card, the first credit card we launched.

几天前，我们刚刚为新推出的两项活动发布了白金卡。

We actually just announced a platinum card a few days ago to our new two events.

因此，内部的总经理们之间有一些竞争，看谁先达成目标，但我认为Robinhood Legend和Robinhood金卡是接下来最有可能突破的。

So between the GMs internally, have some competition to who's gonna get there first, but I think Robinhood Legend and the Robinhood Gold card are are the next up in line.

几个月前，我们邀请了你们的首席经纪官史蒂夫·奎克做客节目，当时我们讨论了预测市场，我问他关于内幕交易以及行业里浮现的一些担忧。

Now we had Steve Quirk, your chief brokerage officer, on the show a couple months ago, and we were talking about prediction markets, and I asked him about insider trading and some of the concerns that were coming to light in the industry.

他指出的是，我们长期以来一直在监控股票交易、加密货币交易等类似行为。

And the point that he made is that, look, we've been monitoring stuff like this in stock trading and crypto trading, etcetera.

我们一直都在做这件事，而这正是Robinhood能够取得成功的原因。

We've been doing this for a long time, and so that's sort of what sets Robinhood up for success.

在预测市场方面，你们有没有发现过任何人从事内幕交易？

With prediction markets, have you guys caught anyone insider trading?

你们发现过什么异常吗？

Have you flagged anything?

你知道，我们的团队一直在监控所有内容。

You know, our teams are always monitoring everything.

我认为史蒂夫·奎克说得对，我们对法律和合规问题极为重视，我们知道如何遵守监管，我们认为这是我们的护城河。

I think the main thing that Steve Quirk said, which is right, we take legal and compliance incredibly seriously, we know how to be regulated, we believe it's a moat.

所以我非常喜欢这个资产类别和这个行业，我认为推动它发展的最好方式就是正确行事，以诚信为本，无论是 listings 还是监控内幕交易。虽然这个资产类别尚在发展中，但我们认为这种结构非常重要，100%认同，这也是我们构建所有产品的原则。

And so I love the asset class in the industry, and I think the best thing to help it grow is to do things the right way, to do it with integrity, whether it's what you list or monitoring insider trading, and so while the asset class is emerging, we do think that structure is important, 100% agree, and that's how we build all of our products.

但你们抓到过谁了吗？

But have you caught anyone?

我不确定我们是否公开过具体案例，但总的来说，我们的做法是持续监控、进行实名认证（KYC）、实施反洗钱（AML）措施，并由上市委员会审查合约类型。就像我们处理其他任何产品一样，我们依靠技术加上内部团队来确保有效监控。

I don't know if we've shared anything publicly, but just in general, the way the way we do it is we monitor it, we KYC, we have AML on these, folks, we have listing committees looking at the types of contracts, and so the same way we would do any other product, we use our technology plus our in house team to make sure we're monitoring it.

如果我们发现任何异常，一定会妥善处理。

And if we do flag anything, we'll always make sure to to do it appropriately.

但对我们而言，我们认为这个行业必须受到监管，而我们认为这实际上是我们的一大优势。

But for us, we think it is important for the industry to be regulated, and we believe that's actually one of our strains.

现在回到你的CFO角色，公司计划在2026年以多快的速度增加员工人数？

Now coming back to your CFO role, how fast is the company planning to grow headcount this year in 2026?

是的，我在最近的财报电话会上提到，我们预计总体支出将增长约18%，并实现盈利性增长，即收入增长快于支出增长。

Yeah, so I said on our most recent earnings call that we expect to go overall expenses by about 18%, and we expect to be profitable growth, meaning growing revenue faster than expenses.

关于员工人数，我们通常说会以中个位数的幅度增长，大致在这个范围内。作为一家科技公司，优势在于不需要大幅增加人力，可以通过软件开发人员持续构建，同时利用人工智能和自动化，将节省的成本以优质价值的形式传递给客户。

On headcount, we usually say we grow in kind of the mid single digits, kind of in that area, and so the beauty of being a technology company is you don't need to add a lot of head count, you can continue to build with software developers, you continue to use AI and automation, and you can take those cost savings and pass them on to customers in terms of great value.

关于人工智能部分，你们是否剔除了那些人们声称只要使用AI就能替代的企业软件？

And on the AI piece, are you stripping out any of that enterprise software that people are saying you can do if you're using AI?

我们100%在使用人工智能。

So we are using AI 100%.

我们实际上是这一领域的早期采用者之一。

We've actually been one of the early adopters in this.

当企业版ChatGPT在2022年初推出时，萨姆很早就给弗拉德打了电话，我们希望成为其客户。

When Enterprise Chat GPT came out in early twenty two, Sam was on the phone with Vlad very, very early on, and we wanted to be a customer.

因此，我们为开发人员提供所有顶尖工具的访问权限，并且我们已经与你们分享了一些相关内容。

And so we give our developers access to all the best in class tools, and we've shared a few things with us.

所以在上一次的财报电话会上，我们提到，由于使用了一些AI工具，我们节省的成本超过了九位数。

So we said in our last earnings call, the savings has been over 9 figures in terms of what we're seeing from some of the AI adoption tools we use.

我们把这些节省归为三大类。

We put into three big buckets.

第一类是开发。

The first is development.

我们的所有软件开发人员都能获得优质的工具，同时我们也大力推动内部为非软件开发人员提供工具和培训。

So all of our software developers have great access to tools, all of our non software developers were really making a push in house to give our our employees tools and education.

第二类是运营，比如客户服务，我们在这一领域很早就实现了自动化。

The second is operational, and so customer service, we were early to automate this.

我们曾公开表示，目前75%的客户服务工单已由AI自动回复，而且这一比例还在持续提升，这是我们重点投入的领域，最后一类是面向客户。

We've said publicly 75% of our customer service tickets are now answered by AI, and that continues to get better and better, so that's that's a big area we're investing in, and the last is for customers.

我们有一个名为Cortex的产品，这是我们的AI助手。

So we have our product called Cortex, which is our AI assistant.

我们提供的第一个功能是，你可以进入任何股票页面，AI会自动总结其价格波动的原因。

The first thing we have is you can go into any stock, and AI will summarize why it's moving.

接着我们构建了功能，你可以进入你的投资组合，它会为你总结整体投资组合情况，这一功能在去年12月的AI助手更新中正式发布。

We then built, you can go into the your portfolio, and it'll give you a summary of your overall portfolio, And it can be announced most recently in December in AI Assistant.

你可以进入应用，直接与它对话，让它帮你完成操作。

You can go into the app and actually talk to it and help you do it.

因此，我们在上述三个领域都广泛运用了人工智能。

So we're using AI across all three of those vectors.

也许这是个合适的时机来结束这部分讨论。

And maybe this is a good place to leave this.

我想听听你对AI是否正在吞噬、取代或消灭SaaS的看法。

I do wanna get your view on the AI eating SaaS, killing SaaS, replacing SaaS.

毕竟，最终拍板这些合同的还是你。

I mean, you are in charge of signing off on these contracts at the end of the day.

我的意思是，你真的能完全取消整个Salesforce的功能吗？

Do you think it I mean, you can't really just take out an entire Salesforce function, can you?

你对此有什么看法？

What's your view on it?

说实话，我觉得这有点被夸大了。

I think it's a little bit overblown, to be honest.

我认为还有一些工具仍然非常有价值。

I think there are tools that are still very valuable.

正如你提到的，像Workday这样的记录系统，或者内部追踪事务的工具，始终存在优先级的问题。

Tools of record, as you mentioned, whether it's something like Workday or something internally that tracks things, there's always a matter of prioritization.

因此，当我们审视我们的工程师时，我更希望他们专注于面向客户的产品，而不是试图重建我们所使用的其他企业SaaS公司。

So when we look at our engineers, I'd rather have them focus on customer facing products, rather than trying to rebuild other enterprise SaaS companies that we use.

这并不意味着这种情况会永远持续下去，我们一直在接触新公司，关注市场动态，但我认为，许多已经打造出优秀产品和护城河的公司，我们仍会继续使用它们，同时我们会利用AI工具让我们的开发者为客户提供更多、更深入的服务，这就是我们目前所看到的情况。

It doesn't mean that it won't be that way forever, we're always talking to new companies, we're looking what's out there, but I think a lot of the companies that have built these great products and moats, we're gonna continue to use them, and then we're gonna focus our developers using AI tools to build even more and more for customers, and so that's what we're seeing thus far.

那么，九位数的成本节约，主要来自于不需要雇佣那么多人吗？

And so the 9 figures in cost savings, that comes from not having to hire as many people?

是的，这是最主要的原因。

Yes, that's the main thing.

所以，如果你看看我们去年的业务量，增长了40%到50%，但正如我提到的，员工人数只增长了中个位数。

And so if you look at our volumes from last year, volumes grew 40 to 50%, but headcount as I mentioned, you know, grew in the mid single digits.

所以，反过来说，如果你要自己构建这些，就必须雇佣更多的人。

And so the counterfactual is you would have had to hire a lot more people to build it.

我们实际上正是把这些节省下来的成本重新投资到业务中。

We're actually just taking those savings and reinvesting the business.

所以人们经常问，Robinhood 是怎么做到如此快速地发布产品的？

So people ask, hey, how does Robinhood ship so fast?

因为我们有非常出色的总经理，他们始终专注于这一点；我们有高效的产品工具，然后我们将这些投资持续用于新产品的开发。

Well, have great GMs who are always focused on it, we have great productivity tools, and then we take those investments and we keep investing them in new products.

因此，我们没有把节省的成本仅仅视为额外的利润，而是用它来重新投资业务。

So instead of just passing it on as additional cost savings, we're using it to reinvest in the business.

那裁员呢？

And what about layoffs?

我的意思是，你是否担心会出现裁员的舆论？你们如何考虑管理自己的人员规模？

I mean, are you concerned at the narrative here that we could see layoffs, and how are you thinking about managing your own headcount?

是的，这一直是我们在关注的事情。

Yeah, it's always something we're watching.

2022年，Robinhood经历了自身的重组，但如今我们的团队非常精简。

In 2022, Robinhood went through its own restructuring, but we are very lean today.

我认为最好的做法就是保持精简和有纪律的成本结构，这是我们的一项核心价值观，这样你就无需为此担忧。

I think the best thing you can do is just run a lean and disciplined cost structure, which is one of our values, and then you don't have to worry about this.

对我们来说，我感觉非常好。

For us, I feel really great.

在市场中，我们看到了一些公司。

There are a couple companies in the markets that we've seen.

我认为其中一些公司把AI当作噱头，声称‘这就是我们这么做的原因’，但实际上他们一开始可能就人手过剩了；而我们始终坚持精简和纪律。

I think some of them are using AI as a headline to kinda say, hey, this is why we're doing it, and they may have been a little bit overstaffed to begin with, but for us, we run lean and discipline.

我们始终在寻找增长的方式，但我更愿意将成本节约用于再投资业务，同时从一开始就保持整体精简的运营模式。

We're always looking at ways to grow, but I'd rather take those cost savings and reinvest in the business, and just run an overall lean business to begin with.

很好。

Great.

好了，Shiv，非常感谢你前来做客。

Well, Shiv, I wanna thank you for coming on.