OpenAI到2030年2.2亿付费用户的愿景，加密寒冬将有所不同 | 2025年11月26日

请大家到信息TI电视前。

Everyone to the Informations TI TV.

我叫阿妮塔·罗马斯瓦米。

My name is Anita Romaswami.

今天是11月26日，星期三，我很高兴为大家带来今天的节目。

It is Wednesday, November 26, and I'm delighted to bring you today's show.

首先，我们将介绍OpenAI关于到本十年末预计ChatGPT付费订阅用户数量的最新预测。

First up, we have new projections from OpenAI about how many paid ChatGPT subscribers they expect to have by the end of the decade.

接着，我们将与拉弗尔·坦格勒投资公司的首席执行官南希·坦格勒讨论科技股以及推动市场的动态。

Then we'll be talking about big tech stocks and what's moving markets with Nancy Tangler, CEO of Laffer Tangler Investments.

此外，还将带来信息频道每周财经简报的第二期，以及对加密货币投资者的警告。

Plus the second installment of the information's weekly finance newsletter and a warning for crypto investors.

节目最后，我们将讲述一个关于人工智能与冬奥会冰上音乐版权的有趣故事。

We'll end the show with a really fun story about AI and music rights on the ice at the Winter Olympics.

今天的节目内容非常精彩，让我们马上开始。

It's a great lineup today, so let's get into it.

《信息报》发布了关于OpenAI预测到本十年末ChatGPT付费订阅用户数量的最新报道。

The information is out with new reporting about how many paid subscribers OpenAI says ChatGPT will have by the end of the decade.

这篇报道的作者今天来到了现场。

The author of that piece joins me today.

斯里玛·佩迪，欢迎来到TI TV。

Srima Pedi, welcome to TI TV.

很高兴能来到这里。

Excited to be here.

很高兴有你，斯里。

Excited to have you, Shri.

那么，OpenAI报告的这些新数据具体是什么？

So what exactly are these new numbers that OpenAI is reporting?

当然。

Of course.

OpenAI预计到2030年，每周活跃用户将达到26亿人。

So OpenAI expects about 2,600,000,000 people to be weekly active users in 2030.

作为对比，这大约是当今世界人口80亿的三分之一。

Just as a point of comparison, that's about a third of the world's population today, 8,000,000,000.

其中至少8.5%，即2.2亿人，预计将是有偿用户。

And at least 8.5% of them or two twenty million are expected to be paying users.

这至少是8.5%。

That's at least 8.5%.

作为对比，目前付费用户的比例从大约5%上升了，这些用户支付了ChatGPT Plus（每月28美元）或ChatGPT Pro（每月200美元）的费用。

As a point of comparison, math's up from about roughly 5% of users that pay for either ChatGPT Plus, which is the $28 a month plan, or ChatGPT Pro, which is the $200 per month plan.

所以从财务角度来看，Shri，付费用户和非付费用户对OpenAI今天的业务有何影响？

So from a financial perspective, Shri, how do the paying versus non paying users impact OpenAI's business today?

当然，我认为非付费用户影响OpenAI业务的主要原因或领域在于，如今超过8亿的每周活跃用户中，绝大多数实际上并未付费。

Of course, I think the primary reason or area that non paying users affects OpenAI's business is that a vast majority of the 800,000,000 plus weekly active users today are actually not paying.

正如我所说，只有大约5%的用户支付了消费者订阅计划的费用。

As I said, only 5% or so pay for the consumer subscription plans.

此外，还有一些用户支付了企业订阅计划的费用。

And then also there are few other there are also others that pay for the enterprise subscription plans.

但绝大多数用户仍为非付费用户。

But still a vast majority are non paying.

这一点在OpenAI的毛利率上表现得非常明显。

And you really see that show up in OpenAI's gross margins.

例如，推理成本以及运行AI模型和产品的费用，OpenAI需要为付费和非付费用户共同承担。

For example, the inference costs or the cost of running AI models as well as products, OpenAI needs to support that for both its paying and non paying users.

但当然，只有付费用户才能产生收入。

But of course, only the paying users generate the revenue.

因此，当你实际查看毛利率时，OpenAI今年所有产品的毛利率大约只有50%。

So when you actually look at the gross margins, OpenAI has roughly just 50% of gross margins across all of its products this year.

所以，我们在这档节目中一直热议并密切关注的一个话题是谷歌最新推出的Gemini 3。

So one plotline we've been talking a lot about on the show and following closely is Google's new launch of Gemini three.

在过去一周，这在科技界引发了广泛讨论。

That's really been the talk of the town in the last week in tech.

我想知道，Sri，考虑到我们目前看到的关于Gemini的热潮，OpenAI的这些预测是否真的可行？

And I was wondering if you thought, Sri, that the projections for OpenAI are actually feasible in the context of some of that excitement we're seeing around Gemini?

我认为这些目标相当雄心勃勃，毕竟让全球三分之一的人口成为ChatGPT的顶级用户，本身就是一个非常远大的目标。

I think they are quite ambitious goals just given that having one third of the population be on top on using ChatGPT It's quite a lofty goal and an ambitious goal in itself.

但同时，谷歌的Gemini已经迎头赶上。

But also, Google Gemini has really caught up.

正如你提到的，随着Gemini三号的发布，人们对Gemini及其潜力的兴奋情绪高涨。

I think with the launch of Gemini three, as you mentioned, there's just so much more excitement around Gemini and the potential there.

我了解到，目前使用Gemini的用户数量约为6.5亿，而相比之下，OpenAI的用户数已超过8亿。

I believe the latest number is around six fifty million users are using Gemini, and that's just within that's just that's just comparing that to 800,000,000 plus OpenAI has.

看起来谷歌Gemini正在迅速追赶。

It's like really seems that Google Gemini is catching up.

因此，我认为时间会证明OpenAI能否真正实现这些目标。

And so I think that time will tell in terms of how OpenAI will actually be able to hit these goals.

所以我非常期待未来几年将带来什么。

So I'm excited to see what the next few years will bring.

你知道，你在文章中还提到了今年秋天OpenAI在ChatGPT上引入的一些内容限制。

You know, another thing you mentioned in your piece was some of the content restrictions that OpenAI has introduced on ChatGPT earlier this fall.

我想知道你能不能再多谈谈这些内容限制。

And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about those.

这些限制会成为实现这些预测的障碍吗？

Are they going to be a hurdle to these projections?

是的。

Yeah.

从八月份开始，OpenAI 开始推出几种不同类型的内容限制。

So OpenAI started launching a few types of different types of content restrictions starting in August.

例如，限制未成年人（18岁以下）讨论自杀或与用户调情的内容。

This is for example, to limit suicide talk or flirting with users for users that are under age under the age of 18.

这主要是为了加强他们的团队安全和内容限制措施。

And so this is around like just amping up their team safety content restrictions.

不过，萨姆·阿尔特曼表示，他们计划在今年12月底前推出年龄验证功能，经验证的成年人将重新获得这些功能。

Sam Altman has said though that they plan to roll out age verification by the end of this year in December, where verified adults can actually have more of those capabilities back.

因此，我认为这导致了 ChatGPT 使用量出现了一定程度的下滑。

And so I think as a result, there was like some bit of a slump in terms of ChatGPT usage.

但我认为，通过验证机制实施的内容限制将至少让更多的OpenAI用户能够全面使用他们习惯的所有功能。

But I think that the content restrictions rule in terms of verification will allow at least more OpenAI users to use the product fully to the capabilities that they have been used to.

我们稍微回到宏观层面，Shri，OpenAI采取了什么策略来让更多人付费使用ChatGPT？

Moving a little bit back to the big picture, Shri, what is the strategy that OpenAI is using to try to get more people to pay for ChatGPT?

当然。

For sure.

目前，OpenAI的绝大多数用户都在使用免费版本，他们通过限制某些功能或不提供完整功能来区分服务。

So OpenAI has such a vast majority of folks who are non paying users using the free tier right now, and they limit it based on different types of features or not having the fullest capabilities available.

因此，他们正试图引导用户升级到专业版，也就是20美元的Plus计划，或者200美元每月的Pro计划，从而增加付费用户数量。

And so they're trying to upsell folks to use the pro or the sorry, the plus, the $20 plan or the pro plan, which is the $200 per month plan, and then be able to increase the number of paying consumers that way.

我认为更广泛的策略很有趣，这也是我观察到的OpenAI的运作方式：随着越来越多的人使用ChatGPT，这实际上也是一种自下而上向企业销售的方式。

The broader strategy, which I think is interesting, which is my sort of observations on how they're working through is that as you get more and more people using ChatGPT, it's a way to actually be able to do bottoms up selling into businesses as well.

例如，当越来越多的员工个人付费使用ChatGPT，并在公司内部广泛使用时，公司就更有可能考虑购买企业版计划。

And so as for example, more individual employees are paying for ChatGPT on their own and you see widespread usage, for example, at a company, then it might make sense for the company to actually pay for an enterprise plan.

因此，这是OpenAI进入企业市场的一种方式，也是其市场推广策略的一部分。

So that's a way for OpenAI to sort of enter go into the businesses as part of their go to market motion.

作为对比，Anthropic 等公司更倾向于直接面向企业销售其 API 计划，而不是像 OpenAI 那样以 Claude 作为主要突破口。

And as a point of comparison, Anthropic, for example, to has, like, more of a direct sort of b to b approach into selling their API plan more directly rather than, like, taking that approach with Claude being sort of their like biggest wedge.

是的。

Yeah.

我想再多了解一下这一点。

I wanted to ask a little bit more about that.

你把 OpenAI 目前的策略比作 Zoom、Slack 以及我们见过的一些企业 SaaS 公司。

I mean, you likened OpenAI strategy right now to Zoom and Slack and maybe some of the enterprise SaaS companies that we've seen.

在人工智能和 AI 聊天机器人领域，有没有哪家聊天机器人没有采用这种争取更多付费用户的战略？

When it comes to AI and AI chatbots, are there any chatbots in the game that are not using the strategy to try to get more paid users?

我认为大多数聊天机器人都在采用这种高级免费模式，即提供大量免费功能，同时推动用户升级到付费订阅。

I think that most chatbots are taking this like premium freemium approach where they're offering a lot of their features for free and then being able to upsell them to premium subscriptions as well.

例如，Perplexity 和 Claude 都有免费和付费版本。

For example, like Perplexity, even Claude has a free and paid tier.

我之前提到的 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的主要区别在于，Anthropic 大约 80% 的收入来自其 API 业务，而 OpenAI 的大部分收入则来自 ChatGPT 业务。

I think the main difference that I was mentioning about OpenAI and Anthropic is that Anthropic, for example, makes 80% of its revenue through its API business versus OpenAI generates a vast majority of its revenue from its ChatGPT business.

因此，你会看到这两个AI实验室的市场推广策略略有不同。

And so as a result, you see go to market motions that look slightly different for those two AI labs.

但我同意，对于像Perplexity或我们之前讨论的ChatGPT这样的消费者级聊天机器人来说，很多做法都是先追求广泛使用，然后随着用户越来越多，再考虑变现。

But I agree that for like consumer play chatbots, similar to like Perplexity or even like ChatGPT as we were talking about, a lot of it is like this just get widespread usage and then sort of like think about monetization as more and more people use it.

这完全遵循了Zoom或Slack的模式：你看到它突然流行起来，所有人都在使用，然后想：为什么不为整个公司付费，使用那些企业真正需要的协作功能和安全功能呢？

And that really follows the playbook of like a Zoom or a Slack where you're sort of seeing it pop up and then everyone's using it and they're like, Why not we just pay for the tier for the whole company and sort of get the collaboration features and the security features that a company actually really seeks out.

明白了。

Got it.

那么，Sri，你

Well, Sri, you

对OpenAI的动态了如指掌，我相信当公司逐渐接近或远离这些预测时，我们还会邀请你回来进一步讨论。

really have your finger on the pulse of what's going on at OpenAI, and I'm sure we'll wanna have you back on the show to talk more as the company moves closer or further away from those projections.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

谢谢。

Thank you.

过去一周，科技巨头和人工智能股票推动了市场波动，英伟达和甲骨文股价下跌，而谷歌和Meta则上涨。

Big tech and AI stocks have been moving markets in the last week with names such as NVIDIA and Oracle dropping while Google and Meta rose.

今天帮助我们解读这一时刻的是拉弗·坦格勒投资公司首席执行官兼首席投资官南希·坦格勒。

Here to help us make sense of the moment is Nancy Tangler, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Asset Manager, Laffer Tangler Investments.

南希，很高兴你来到这里。

Nancy, good to have you here.

谢谢你的邀请，阿妮塔。

Thanks for having me, Anita.

南希，目前科技投资者心中最关注的名字无疑是英伟达。

Nancy, it feels like the biggest name on tech investors' minds right now is really NVIDIA.

所以我想从这里开始。

So I want to start there.

昨天，有报道称谷歌正在与Meta及其他公司洽谈，允许它们在数据中心使用谷歌的TPU芯片，此后英伟达股价出现下跌。

We saw the company's share price dip yesterday after the information reported that Google was in talks with Meta and other companies about letting them use Google's TPU chips in their data centers.

这可能会对英伟达构成挑战。

And that could pose a challenge to NVIDIA.

NVIDIA随后发表声明称，他们为谷歌的成功感到高兴，并取得了巨大进展，且NVIDIA领先行业一代。

NVIDIA later put out a statement saying they're delighted by Google's success and they've made great advances and that NVIDIA is a generation ahead of the industry.

你到底在做什么？

What are you making all of this?

你认为有没有哪家公司正在缩小与NVIDIA的差距？

And do you see any one company kind of closing that gap with NVIDIA?

是的，但我不认为一定是谷歌。

Yeah, except I don't think it's necessarily Google.

事实上，可能是AMD。

It may in fact be AMD.

但我要指出的是，安妮塔，在DeepSeq事件之后，他们也发布了类似的声明。

But I will point out, Anita, that they also issued a similar statement after the DeepSeq situation.

所以，我认为看待NVIDIA，你需要关注两件事。

And so what you have to look at with NVIDIA, I think, is really two things.

把NVIDIA的芯片看作是进入生态系统的入口。

Think of NVIDIA chips as the entrance into the ecosystem.

他们的软件CUDA是开发者用来编写程序的主要工具。

Their software CUDA is really what developers utilize to develop programs.

这很像苹果的App Store，手机只是进入生态系统的入口。

It's much like Apple's app store where the cell phone is just the gateway, smartphone.

因此，我认为NVIDIA实际上比所有最近的竞争对手领先数年。

And so I think NVIDIA is in fact years ahead of all the nearest competitors.

好消息是，我们ETF TGLR的最大持仓之一是博通，他们正在与Gemini/Alphabet合作设计TPU。

Now the good news is well, one of our largest holdings in our ETF TGLR is Broadcom, and they are the ones that are designing and partnering with Gemini with Gemini slash Alphabet on on the TPUs.

所以我认为，在这个环境中还有很多赢家的空间。

So I think there's plenty of room for a lot of winners in this environment.

但目前市场只关注头条新闻。

But right now the market's just focused on headlines.

那你持有NVIDIA和AMD的股票吗？

And are you an owner of NVIDIA and AMD stock?

我们持有。

We are.

我们持有苹果和谷歌的股票。

And we own Apple and we own Google.

所以我们基于不同的原因持有不同的策略。

So we own different strategies for different reasons.

谷歌最初是被加入到我们的价值型投资组合中的，之后我们又将其重新纳入成长型投资组合。

Google was actually added in our value portfolio first, and then we added it back into growth.

因为请记住，就在几个月前，它还被所有人认为已经完蛋了。

Because remember, it was left for dead just a few short months ago.

当时没人愿意持有它的股票。

Nobody wanted to own it.

它曾是七巨头中的落后者，而现在却成了宠儿。

It was the laggard in the Mag-seven, and now it's the darling.

我认为在未来几个月，甚至可能几年里，我们都会看到这种超越现象。

I think we're going to see this leapfrogging for a number of months, maybe even years.

我想谈到你投资组合中的股票，南希，另一个我觉得有趣的名字是甲骨文。

I guess speaking about names that are in your portfolio, Nancy, another name that I thought was interesting is Oracle.

过去一个月，该股票下跌了约30%，我知道投资者对该公司为从软件公司转型为云服务商而进行的资本密集型投入感到非常担忧。

The stock is down some 30% in the last month, and I know investors have been really worried about the company's capital intensive push to turn from a software company to a cloud provider.

我的意思是，我们昨天还看到一则报道，讲的是甲骨文及其建筑贷款方为支持这一转型借入了巨额资金。

I mean, we had a story yesterday about how Oracle and its construction lenders are borrowing huge amounts of money to fund that push.

但你却说你昨天买入了甲骨文的股票，我想知道这是为什么。

Yet you said that you bought Oracle shares yesterday, and I wanted to know why that is.

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，有几个原因。

Well, couple of reasons.

你知道， headlines、对冲基金和算法目前仍在严重驱动这只股票的短期表现。

You know, again, the headlines and the hedge funds and the algorithms are really driving short term performance in this stock.

但如果你看一下季度末的资产负债率，它达到了427%。

But if you look at the debt to equity ratio, at the end of the quarter, it was 427%.

这一数字相比2024年8月的781%已经有所下降。

That was down from seven eighty one percent in August 2024.

现在他们确实通过债券发行进入了市场。

Now they did go to the market for a bond offering.

那笔发行金额为180亿美元，使负债权益比上升至500%。

That was $18,000,000,000 That drove the debt to equity ratio up to 500%.

但这是一家有着长期债务历史的公司。

But this is a company that has a long history with debt.

如果你看看人们把大约560亿美元的高级信贷额度都算进去了。

And if you look at you know, people are lumping in the senior credit facilities, which are about 56,000,000,000.

但他们尚未动用这些信贷额度。

They haven't drawn on those yet.

再看固定资产，同比上涨了130%，而债务仅上升了9%。

And if you look at property and equipment, up 130% year over year, debt is only up 9%.

所以我认为每个人都需要深呼吸一下。

So I think everyone needs to take a deep breath.

RPO积压订单已经反映在股价中了，这就是为什么我们觉得，夏天或者实际上是在九月时，应该卖出股票。

The RPO backlog has already been taken out of the price of the stock, and that's why we thought you know, we were selling it in the low 3 hundreds in the summer or actually in September.

而现在我们正在回购。

And then now we're buying it back.

我的意思是，我们仍然持有，但正在增加持仓，因为我们认为市场反应过度了。

I mean, we still held it, but we're adding back to our holdings because we think it's been overdone.

从更大的格局来看，关于甲骨文，你是否担心其现金消耗以及其长期前景，考虑到它的投入？

And I guess zooming out bigger picture with Oracle, are you not concerned about cash burn and it's long term future considering its push?

我对这一点并不担心。

I am not concerned about that.

我担心的是市场对OpenAI的过度依赖，或这种被感知到的过度依赖。

What I am concerned about is the overdependence in this market or the perceived overdependence to OpenAI.

我认为这值得担忧，因为这是一家烧钱速度很快、收入水平极低的公司。

And that's something that I think is worth worrying about, because that's a company that's got a burn rate and very low levels of revenues.

甲骨文拥有多个业务板块，它们会找到解决办法的。

Oracle has a number of businesses, and they will figure this out.

拉里·埃里森仍持有公司42%的股份。

Larry Ellison still owns 42% of the company.

我们与这家公司进行了沟通。

We talked to the company.

他们将捍卫自己的投资级评级。

They're going to defend their investment grade ratings.

所以我认为甲骨文未必是大问题，除非OpenAI出现问题。

So I don't think Oracle's necessarily the big problem unless there's a problem with OpenAI.

然后我认为这会影响整个领域。

And then I think that impacts the entire space.

但让我们也记住，数据中心的建设依赖于我认为大约105,000名员工来建造一个数据中心，阿尼塔。

But let's also remember that data center build out is dependent on I think it's like between 105,000 employees to build a data center, Anita.

而我们目前已经存在45万个未填补的制造岗位。

And we've already got 450,000 manufacturing jobs that are unfilled.

因此，这些数据中心需要建设和制造方面的支持。

So you've got construction and manufacturing required in these data centers.

这可能会自然地减缓建设进度。

That may slow down the build out just naturally.

但与此同时，微软的萨提亚·纳德拉曾表示，这些数据中心是可以互换的。

But the meantime, Microsoft Satya Nadella had said, These data centers are fungible.

我们可以将它们用于其他用途。

We can use them for other things.

所以我认为人们有一种恐慌的倾向。

So I think there's a desire to be panicked.

我在九十年代管理资金时就是这样。

I was managing money in the nineties.

但这和那时不一样。

This is not that.

我确实想聊聊AI泡沫的话题，但在那之前，我想问一下，你目前还在买入其他东西吗？

I do want to get to the AI bubble talks, but before we get there, I just wanted to ask, is there anything else that you're buying?

听起来你持有许多Max七只股票，但除了甲骨文之外，现在还有什么吸引你吗？

It sounds like you're an owner of many of the Max seven stocks, but what what right now is speaking to you outside of Oracle?

是的。

Yeah.

我们实际上正在买入可选消费品，阿妮塔。

We're we're actually buying consumer discretionary, Anita.

我认为《大美丽法案》还没有被大多数投资者纳入他们的思考过程。

I think the one big beautiful bill act has not really been factored into most investors' thought process.

第一季度将向美国纳税人支付1500亿美元的额外退税。

150,000,000,000 in additional tax refunds should be paid to US taxpayers in the first quarter.

总计超过5000亿美元。

That's for a total of over 500,000,000,000.

因此，我们认为可选消费品类股票将受益。

So we think the consumer discretionary names will benefit.

我们一直在增持TJ Maxx、TJX和ULTA，还有这个领域其他我们看好的股票。

We've been adding to TJ Maxx, TJX, and ULTA, ULTA, and there's other names in the space we like.

我们最近增持了星巴克。

We recently added to Starbucks.

我认为这是一个很好的对冲。

I think that's a good offset.

我们最大的持仓之一是沃尔玛。

And then one of our largest holdings is Walmart.

我认为沃尔玛在很多方面都很有意思。

And I think Walmart is interesting on so many levels.

我们大约在八九年前买入了它。

We bought it about, I don't know, eight or nine years ago.

它已经成为我们投资主题的典范，即传统经济企业拥抱新技术。

It has become the poster child of our investing theme, which is old economy companies embracing the new technologies.

当你聆听管理层的讲话时，沃尔玛还提供了大量洞察，他们目前的采购通胀率仅为1%左右。

And Walmart is also it just provides a lot of insight when you listen to management, they're only seeing about 1% inflation in their purchasing.

如果你还担心美联储和通胀，以及是否会降息，这一点非常有说服力。

So that's pretty compelling if you're also worried about the fed and inflation and whether ready to get a cut or not.

这些就是我们在必需品和可选消费品领域喜欢的股票。

So those are the names that we like in staples and in consumer discretionary.

很有趣。

Interesting.

我想把话题再转回人工智能上一会儿。

So I wanted to flip the conversation back to AI for a second.

在今天的市场中，有一只人工智能股票或科技股，你对它的AI前景不看好，是哪一只？

What is one AI stock or tech stock that has AI exposure that you're not optimistic about in today's market?

我们没有持有Meta。

So we do not own Meta.

我们在比现在低得多的价位卖出了它。

We sold it at lower levels than it is today.

我们买入了Spotify。

We bought Spotify.

这对每个投资组合经理来说都是一个难题。

This is the dilemma for every portfolio manager.

你总是会看着自己卖掉的股票，心想：哦，它还在继续上涨。

You always look at what you sold and you go, Oh, but kept going up.

Spotify涨得更多，我们只能用这个来安慰自己。

Well, Spotify went up a lot more, and that's how we have to console ourselves.

我们一直围绕着它打转，但我还没准备好出手，因为它们在AI支出上的变现对我们来说有点难以理解。

We've been sort of circling the wagons around it, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger yet because the monetization of their AI spend is a little bit more difficult for us to wrap our brain around.

所以我们一直保持观望，会继续关注这一领域，但目前我们并不持有它。

So we've sort of stayed off to the sidelines and we'll continue to watch that one, but we don't own it currently.

所以我得问问南希，我想最后听听你的看法：我们现在是不是处于AI泡沫中？

So I've got to ask Nancy, I want to wrap this up by getting your thoughts on, are we in an AI bubble or not?

为什么是或为什么不是？

And why or why not?

三年来，我一直把这和1990年代类比，安妮塔，因为那时我是一名投资组合经理。

So I have been drawing the analogy to the 1990s, Anita, for three years, because I was a portfolio manager then.

当时有很多相似之处：利率更高、通胀更高、由生产力驱动的增长。

And there are a lot of similarities, higher interest rates, higher inflation, productivity driven growth.

但那时我们关注的公司——至少推动增长的那些公司——盈利都在下降。

But the companies that we were focused on in that, or at least that were driving the growth, had declining earnings.

所以那些成长型股票，盈利在收缩，而它们的估值却在飙升。

So the growth names, earnings were contracting while their valuations were soaring.

这与我们现在的情况不同。

That is not what we have today.

推动这场特定技术革命的增长型公司，平均每股收益增长约为20%。

The growth names that are driving this particular technological revolution are generating about 20% growth on average in EPS.

此外，九十年代的资本支出在整个十年间急剧上升。

And then in addition to that, the CapEx spend in the nineties was for it soared for the entire decade.

我们才刚刚开始。

We're just getting started.

所以我认为我们正处于起飞的初期。

So I think we're in the beginning of the runway.

这不会永远持续下去，但会持续一段时间。

This won't go on forever, but it will go on for some time.

我认为对于您的观众，您或许可以引导他们关注一些二级和三级衍生领域。

And I think for your viewers, you may wanna just, you know, focus them on some of the second and third derivatives.

我们主题投资组合中持有的一家公司是Symbotic，它为沃尔玛完成了所有后台自动化工作。

One of the names that we own in our thematic portfolio is Symbotic, which has done all of the backroom automation for Walmart.

他们昨天公布了财报，股价上涨了20%。

They reported yesterday, stock was up 20%.

不一定今天就买入，但要关注这类股票。

Don't necessarily buy it today, but look for those kinds of names.

我的意思是，这家公司的盈利增长将超过100%。

I mean, the earnings growth in that name is gonna be over a 100%.

机器人技术以及后台和物流自动化的发展才刚刚开始。

And the adoption to robotics and back office automation or logistical automation is just getting started.

好吧，南希，你总是充满点子，AI市场从不枯燥。

Well, Nancy, you are full of ideas and there is never a dull day in the AI market.

非常感谢你今天做客我们的节目。

So thank you very much for coming on to the show today.

谢谢，阿妮塔。

Thanks, Anita.

我们的每周财经通讯第二版已经发布，其中包含了对加密货币投资者的明确警告。

The information is out with the second edition of our weekly finance newsletter, and this one includes a clear warning for crypto investors.

现在加入我们的是《The Information》的财经编辑肯·布朗。

Joining me now is Ken Brown, finance editor here at The Information.

嗨，阿妮塔。

Hi, Anita.

嗨，肯。

Hi, Ken.

很高兴你来参加节目。

Good to have you on the show.

嗯。

Yep.

你的文章第一句写道：冬天来了，不仅是在季节上，也在加密货币市场中。

So the first line of your piece says, Winter is coming, not just in the seasons, but in the crypto market.

你能解释一下你的意思吗？

Can you explain what you mean?

‘加密货币寒冬’这个说法人们已经用过很多次了，尤其是在FTX崩盘之后，价格暴跌，市场一片惨淡。

So crypto winter is a phrase that people have used a bunch of times, particularly after the FTX collapse, prices were down, it was really ugly out there.

所以他们称之为加密寒冬。

So they called it the crypto winter.

现在，我们正经历另一次大幅抛售。

Right now, we're in another bad sell off.

加密货币大幅下跌。

Crypto's down a bunch.

最具投机性的资产跌幅更大。

The most speculative stuff is down a lot.

因此，如果情况变得更糟，就会迎来另一个加密寒冬。

And so the idea of if it gets worse, it's going to be another crypto winter.

所以我是在玩文字游戏，因为现在是冬天，快到冬天了。

So I was playing off the fact that it's winter, it's almost winter.

我住的地方，感觉已经像冬天了。

And where I live, it feels like winter.

所以这就是原因。

And so that was why.

那是第一句话。

That's the first line.

嗯，肯，旧金山这里也很冷，但我想问你，当前这场加密货币崩盘的核心是什么？

Well, it's chilly here in San Francisco too, Ken, but I wanted to ask you, what is the center of this current crypto meltdown?

到底是什么在推动它？

What's really driving it?

之前出现了一波繁荣，价格大幅上涨，现在正在回落。

So there was a boom and prices went up a lot and now they're coming off.

我认为市场发生的情况是，它变得极其投机。

I think what's happened in the market is it just got very, very speculative.

大量加密资产通过这些 treasury 股票被推向股市。

There were a ton of crypto assets put on the stock market through these treasury stocks.

最著名的是 Strategy 这家公司，叫做 Strategy。

The most famous is Strategy, the company called Strategy.

它们大量买入加密货币，又在股市上市，这些资产价格一路飙升，持续买入更多加密货币，但现在这一切结束了，价格大幅下跌。

And so they loaded up on crypto, they were on the stock market, and these things just went through the roof and kept buying up more crypto, and that is now over, and those prices have come down a lot.

这些产品的结构使得加密货币价格上涨。

By the structure of these things, that was driving crypto higher.

而根据这些产品的结构，当它们下跌时，也会推动加密货币下跌。

And by the structure of these things, as they go down, they drive crypto lower.

所以现在发生的就是这种情况。

So that's what's happening now.

因此出现了大规模抛售。

So there's this big sell off.

你在文章中提到的另一个关于加密货币市场的情况是，过去一年里稳定币变得非常流行。

So another thing that you mentioned about the crypto market in your piece was that stablecoins have gained a lot of popularity over the last year.

今年七月，特朗普政府签署了《天才法案》，这实际上为稳定币建立了首个监管框架。

In July, we saw the Trump administration sign the Genius Act into law, which that really created the first regulatory framework for stablecoins.

而你认为它们非常危险。

And you argue that they're very risky.

我想请你再多谈谈这一点，以及这些风险具体是什么。

I wanted you to say a little bit more about that and what the risks are.

对。

Right.

所以稳定币和这个的区别，我们先定义一下。

So the difference between stablecoins, so let's define.

稳定币的价值始终是一美元。

Stablecoin is something it's always worth a dollar.

它和美元是一比一挂钩的，而其他加密货币则会疯狂波动，对吧？

It's one to one against a dollar and other crypto goes bananas, right?

它像股票一样上下波动，甚至更剧烈。

It goes up and down like a stock really or more.

所以稳定币承诺会把你的钱还给你。

And so stablecoins, they promise you they're going to give you your money back.

这就是稳定币的承诺，就像银行存款或货币市场基金的承诺一样。

That's the promise of a stablecoin, just like it's the promise of a bank deposit or a money market fund.

但这很难做到。

And that's hard to do.

几十年来，我们已经目睹了银行、货币市场基金以及任何承诺稳定性的机构发生的挤兑。

And we've seen runs on banks and on money market funds and on anything that promises stability over decades and decades.

因此，它们做出了一个巨大的承诺。

And so they're making a big promise.

问题是，它们能兑现这个承诺吗？

And the question is, can they keep it?

而历史表明：不能。

And so the history is no.

稳定币在过去多次打破了与美元的挂钩。

Stablecoins have broken that dollar peg a bunch of times in the past.

就在最近这次抛售中，刚刚发生了一次。

One just happened very recently in this sell off.

那是一种有点特殊的稳定币，但它还是打破了面值。

It was a bit of an oddball stablecoin, but it broke the buck.

所以——

So-

最近崩盘的稳定币是哪一个？

What was the stablecoin that recently sold off?

这是一种在亚洲被称为算法型的无名稳定币。

It's sort of a no name stable coin in Asia that they call it algorithmic.

它不是在美国获得认证或符合美国法律的稳定币，但它的价值下跌了90%以上，就此终结了。

So it's not one that's certified in The US or matches The US law, but it fell 90 something percent and that's the end of that.

资金消失了。

Money was missing.

他们在投资中亏损了，然后所有人都恐慌了。

They lost money on their investments and then everyone freaked out.

所以区别在于，当你作为投资者持有股票，股价下跌10%或20%时，好吧，你可能会不高兴，但这就是股票会发生的事。

So the difference is when you're an investor and you own a stock and it goes down 10% or 20%, okay, you might be unhappy, but that's what happens to stocks.

当你把钱存入银行或货币市场基金，如果它下跌了5%，它本不该下跌，你会恐慌，立刻想要取回你的钱，而你和所有人都会引发银行挤兑。

When you put your money in a bank or in a money market fund and it falls 5%, it's not supposed to fall, you freak out, you want your money back immediately, and you and everybody else causes a run on the bank.

因此，稳定币的风险在于会出现挤兑。

And so the risk is with stablecoins, there is a run.

问题是，稳定币的规模已经变得非常大，并且开始在尼日利亚或阿根廷等货币不稳定的国家被更多地用作现金存储手段。

And the problem is stablecoins have gotten so much bigger and they're starting to be used more for holding cash in countries where there's unstable currencies like Nigeria or Argentina.

人们正在购买稳定币。

People are buying stablecoins.

风险在于，一旦出问题，就会引发挤兑，人们想要拿回自己的钱，进而导致清算，从而破坏整个系统的稳定。

And the risk is that something goes wrong and there's a run and people want their money back, and then there's a liquidation and it's destabilizing to the system.

所以，这正是我想表达的主要观点。

So that was the main thing I was getting at.

所以，正如你提到的，肯，这并不是我们第一次看到稳定币崩盘。

So like you mentioned, Ken, this isn't the first time that we've seen a stablecoin blow up.

你在你的文章中也稍微提到了这一点。

And you talked a little bit about this in your piece.

你能跟我们的观众分享一下，几年前硅谷银行倒闭时发生了什么，以及那个事件是如何与稳定币相关的吗？

Can you share a little bit with our viewers about what we saw when Silicon Valley Bank failed a couple of years ago and how that episode actually related to stablecoins?

对。

Right.

Circle 是最大的稳定币公司，在美国规模最大。

So Circle is one of the biggest It is the biggest stablecoin in The US.

它是全球第二大稳定币。

It's the second biggest in the world.

它们在硅谷银行存有30亿美元。

They had $3,000,000,000 sitting at Silicon Valley Bank.

硅谷银行倒闭了。

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.

当利率上升时，硅谷银行持有的美国国债价值下跌。

Basically the value of Silicon Valley's treasuries that it was holding fell when interest rates went up.

这些国债本是安全的，但价值缩水，银行陷入困境，而这些存款基本没有保险。

So safe treasuries, but they lost value, it fell, the bank got in trouble, and basically these deposits were not insured.

因此，理论上 Circle 可能会损失大量资金。

And so theoretically, Circle could have lost a bunch of money.

他们公布消息后，所有人都开始抛售 Circle，这种稳定币的汇率一度跌至每美元88美分。

They announced it, everyone started to sell their Circle, and the stablecoin fell to like 88¢ on the dollar.

于是全面恐慌。

And so general freak out.

美国政府在当天介入，担保了所有这些资产。

And the US government came in at the the day and guaranteed all this stuff.

问题是，这种情况不可能每次都发生。

So the problem is that's not going to happen every time.

这造成了系统性风险，因为人们开始抛售一种资产，然后为了筹钱又开始抛售另一种资产。

It creates this systemic risk because people start selling one thing, and then they start selling something else to get the money to sell something else.

这就是他们所说的传染效应，但实际上是市场一个接一个地崩盘的多米诺骨牌效应。

And it is this what they call contagion, but it's this domino effect of the market starting to tank one after another after another.

过去我们就见过这种情况。

And that's what we've seen in the past.

从更宏观的角度来看，肯，你能跟我们多说说你接下来在加密货币领域关注什么吗？以及这个板块对经济更广泛的影响会如何蔓延？

Zooming out here, Ken, can you tell us a little bit more about what you're watching for next in crypto more broadly and just sort of how the sector's impacts could ripple through the economy on a larger scale?

加密货币与传统金融体系的关联比以往任何时候都更加紧密。

Well, crypto is more intertwined with the traditional financial system than ever before.

我之前提到的这些加密股票就是其中的一部分。

These crypto stocks that I talked about before are part of that.

因此，我们将看到这确实是我所说的那种新的寒冬，因为它们相互关联得如此紧密，股市上有大量的加密资产。

And so we're going to see this is really what I was saying is it'll be a new kind of winter because it's so interlinked, so much more interlinked, there's a ton of crypto on the stock market.

还有这些稳定币，以及其他产品。

There's these stablecoins, there's other products.

而且每个人都在发行这些稳定币。

And everyone's issuing these stable coins.

我的意思是，昨天，先买后付公司Klarna宣布将发行自己的稳定币。

I mean, yesterday Klarna, which is the buy now pay later company said it's going issue its own stable coin.

因此，我真正关注的是，这次抛售——无论现在结束还是继续恶化——如何与全球金融体系、传统金融体系产生互动。

So what I'm really looking at is how this sell off, whether it ends now or keeps getting worse, interacts with the global financial system, the traditional financial system.

我的意思是，这个体系的监管机构对此非常担忧，并在仔细观察。

I mean, the regulators of this system are very worried about this and looking really carefully.

所以，这是一次考验，一次考验，对吧？

So this is a test, test, right?

我真正想告诉人们的是，这是一个考验，要引起注意。

What I really wanted to tell people is this is a test, pay attention.

这次将告诉我们加密货币和传统金融体系将如何反应。

This is going to tell us how crypto and the traditional financial system are going to react this time.

明白了。

Got it.

历史确实会重演，我们都会密切关注并留意这一点。

Well, history certainly repeats itself and we'll all be watching closely and paying attention to that.

我肯定还会邀请你上节目来讨论这个问题。

I'm sure we'll have you on the show again to talk about it.

非常感谢你来到这里，肯。

Thanks so much for being here, Ken.

谢谢，阿妮塔。

Thanks, Anita.

今天我们节目以一个积极的结尾收场。

We're closing out today's show on a high note.

人工智能正在渗透到生活的几乎每一个角落，包括你可能意想不到的一个领域。

AI is infiltrating nearly every corner of life, including one that you might not expect.

那就是冬奥会的冰舞项目。

That's ice dancing at the Winter Olympics.

为我们做解释的是我们的体育商业记者莎拉·杰曼诺。

Here to explain is our sports business reporter, Sarah Germano.

莎拉，欢迎来到TI TV。

Sarah, welcome to TI TV.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

不可能更

Couldn't be more

兴奋地谈论这个话题了。

excited to talk about this.

是的，让我们聊聊花样滑冰。

Yeah, let's talk figure skating.

你能简单告诉我一下花样滑冰打算如何使用人工智能吗？

Can you just tell me a little bit about how figure skating is looking to use AI?

是的。

Yeah.

首先，如果你想想花样滑冰，它在上世纪九十年代曾是美国电视上收视率第二高的运动，仅次于NFL。

To start, if you think about figure skating, it actually used to be the second most watched sport on TV in The US in the nineties behind only the NFL.

当时非常火爆。

It was huge.

但如果你看看今天，除了冬奥会之外，它几乎完全消失了。

If you think about it today, it's virtually invisible outside of the Winter Olympics.

因此，这项运动的裁判和管理者正试图在流媒体时代让花样滑冰变得更受欢迎、更易接触。

So people officiate officiating and, in charge of the sport are trying to make it more popular and more accessible in the streaming age.

这个赛季有一项新规，要求冰舞选手必须使用20世纪90年代的音乐，比如辣妹合唱团或后街男孩的歌曲。

There's one rule this season that ice dancers have to skate to music from the 1990s like Spice Girls or the Backstreet Boys.

但这带来了一个非常严重的难题，那就是更现代的音乐有着更严格的版权许可要求。

But that comes with a very serious complication, which is that more contemporary music has stricter licensing requirements.

体育界和音乐产业都还没有完全解决这个问题。

Neither the sports world nor the music industry has totally figured this out yet.

值得注意的是，花样滑冰的管理机构已经允许运动员使用人工智能生成的音乐进行表演，这将是冬奥会上的首次。

The figure skating governing body, mind you, has given skaters permission to use AI generated music for their programs, which is going to be sort of a first at the Winter Olympics.

有一支捷克冰舞队正在使用部分由人工智能生成的节目，其灵感来自邦·乔维。

There is one Czech ice dance team who is using an AI, partially AI generated program that is inspired by Bon Jovi.

令人难以置信的是，花样滑冰曾经如此受欢迎，而现在情况完全颠倒了。

It's pretty incredible that figure skating used to be so popular and now the script has completely flipped.

我想把话题扩大到整个体育界，莎拉，你的很多报道都涉及音乐版权问题，即谁可以使用什么音乐以及需要支付多少费用。

I guess broadening it out to sports at large, a lot of your reporting, Sarah, was about music licensing and the issue of who can use what and for how much money.

你能再多谈谈这个领域面临的挑战吗？不仅仅是对花样滑冰运动员，而是对所有运动员而言？

Can you talk a little more about some of the challenges in that area, not just for figure skaters, but for athletes overall?

当然。

Totally.

如果你想想过去电视通过线性播放和有线电视播出的方式，如果你没有在晚上8点准时收看想看的节目，它就消失了。

So if you think about the way TV used to be on linear and cable, if you didn't tune in at 8PM to watch the program you wanted to see, it was gone.

那是短暂的。

It was ephemeral.

现在我们有了流媒体平台和社交媒体。

Now we have streaming platforms, we have social media.

显然，这给观众提供了更多选择，让他们可以自由决定何时以及如何观看节目。

Obviously that's given consumers a lot more choice in when and how they watch their programs.

对于足球、篮球和足球等其他体育项目来说，这非常好。

And for other sports like football and basketball and soccer, it's great.

你可以几乎随时访问这些内容。

You can access it pretty much anytime.

但对于花样滑冰这类涉及更多知识产权问题、尤其是音乐使用的运动来说，流媒体和社交媒体的传播变得复杂，因为目前还没有人完全弄清楚如何以商业方式授权音乐，使其能在流媒体平台和社交媒体上长期存在。

With sports like figure skating, which have more IP considerations, particularly around their music, the streaming and social media aspect of it is complicated because no one has quite figured out how to license the music in this commercial way so that it can live on streaming platforms and it can live on social media for extended periods of time.

其中原因之一是，变量实在太多了。

One of the reasons for that is actually that there are so many variables.

对吧？

Right?