Qualtrics以67.5亿美元被收购，电商初创企业复苏，Reflection AI融资20亿美元 | 2025年10月10日

欢迎大家收看Informations TI TV。我是Akash Pashricha。今天是10月10日星期五。今天我们为大家准备了内容丰富的节目。我们将邀请Qualtrics的首席执行官和Reflection AI的首席执行官。

Welcome everyone to the Informations TI TV. My name is Akash Pashricha. It is Friday, October 10. We have got a jam packed show for you today. We are bringing on the CEO of Qualtrics, the CEO of Reflection AI.

这两家公司本周都因收购和融资轮次而成为大新闻。我们还将讨论稳定币业务的盈利能力以及电子商务领域的悄然复苏。最后，我们将邀请一位人工智能初创公司的创始人，他决定结束运营，我相信这将是一场关于他对当前初创企业格局反思的精彩对话。Qualtrics本周进行了一项重大收购，以67.5亿美元收购了Press Ganey Forster。这两家公司我们在这个节目中还不太常讨论，但Qualtrics是一家软件巨头，帮助公司收集来自客户和员工的反馈。而Press Ganey Forster则帮助医疗保健公司收集来自医生和患者的类似反馈。

Both those companies have made big news this week with acquisitions and with funding rounds. We're also going to talk about the profitability of stablecoin businesses and a quiet revival in the e commerce sector. And finally, we are bringing on the founder of an AI start up who has decided to wind down his operations for what I know is going to be a great conversation about his reflections on the current start up landscape. Qualtrics made a big acquisition this week, buying Press Ganey Forster for $6,750,000,000 These aren't two names that we've talked about too much on this show just yet, but Qualtrics is a software giant that helps companies collect feedback from their customers and their employees. And Press Ganey Forster helps healthcare companies collect similar feedback from doctors and from patients.

我想请Qualtrics的首席执行官Zig Seraphin来进一步谈谈这笔交易。Zig，欢迎来到TI TV。很高兴你能来。

I want to bring on Zig Seraphin, the CEO of Qualtrics, to talk more about this deal. Zig, welcome to TI TV. It's great to have you.

很高兴来到这里，Akashin。你今天节目内容很丰富，谢谢邀请我。很高兴能来。

Nice to be here, Akashin. You have a nice jam packed show today, so thanks for having me. Nice to be here.

嗯，我们很高兴你能打头阵，为我们开个好头。听着，我想谈谈这笔交易。这是过去几周我们在软件市场上看到的最大交易之一。你为什么没有这么做？

Well, we are happy to have you leading us off here and starting us off strong. Look, I want to talk about this deal. It's one of the biggest deals in the software market that we've seen as of the past few weeks. Why didn't you do it?

嗯，我认为要更清楚地理解这一点，重要的是给你一些背景信息。要知道，我们是市场领导者的关键前沿合作伙伴，尤其是一些以体验为主导的最佳品牌和公司。那些专注于客户和员工的公司，如果你退一步说，好吧，是什么在技术上支撑着这些品牌，以及它们如何与客户连接？通常，Qualtrics就处于中间位置。我们在帮助公司更贴近客户方面有着显著的影响。

Well, I think in understanding it more clearly, I think it's important just to give you some background context. Know, we're a critical cutting edge partner to market leaders, especially some of the best of brands and companies that are leading with experience. The ones that are focused on their customers, their employees, if you step back and say, okay, what's powering that brand technology wise and how they connect with their customers? It's often it's Qualtrics that's there in the middle. And we have significant impact on how we help companies get closer to their customers.

在过去的一年里，我们看到我们产品套件中的人工智能功能获得了非凡的采用水平。自推出以来，我们有超过三分之一的客户。哦，天哪，我们在全球拥有的17,000家客户中，超过三分之一已经采用了围绕人工智能的市场功能。我们前50名客户中约有90%已经采用。因此，我们发现并学到的是，当你拥有为服务对象量身定制的人工智能时，它能提供更好的体验。

And over the last year, we have seen an extraordinary level of adoption in the AI capabilities that we put into our product suites. Since the launch, we've had more than a third of our customers. So, oh gosh, more than a third of 17,000 customers we have around the world have adopted capabilities under the market around AI. About 90% of our top 50 customers have adopted. And so what we found and what we've learned is, when you have AI that is purpose built for the people that it's designed to serve, It delivers better experiences.

它实际上能带来更大的商业影响，推动他们投资获得实际回报。

It actually drives greater business impact. It drives real returns on the investment that they're making.

没错。

Right.

我们发现人们需要的是——归根结底需要的是以行业专业知识为支撑、理解他们特定领域需求的技术。这清晰印证了我们进行67亿美元投资时看到的机遇。

And what we're finding is people want business that's, you know, ultimately want technology that's backed by focusing on the expertise within that industry and understanding the domain specific things that they're trying to do. So this clearly demonstrates the opportunity that we saw in making the $6,700,000,000 investment.

好的。我想谈谈这里的战略考量。Presque Any Forrest这家公司始终以医疗健康为核心，从其服务的众多医疗机构中医师和患者那里汲取经验。从你们的角度看，这次收购是为了获取客户群以拓宽医疗领域布局？还是为了获得你们此前缺乏的技术？

Right. So I want to talk about sort of the strategy here. Presque Any Forrest, I mean, is a company that has really centered itself around healthcare and learning from doctors and patients that are in the many healthcare companies that it serves. From your end, was this an acquisition that you made to acquire the customer base and sort of expand into healthcare more broadly? Was this a deal that gave you technology that you didn't have?

本次收购背后的具体战略逻辑究竟是什么？

What exactly was the strategic logic here behind the acquisition?

首先，PG Forresta在医疗领域信誉卓著且业绩斐然。他们虽已拓展至其他领域并具备市场研究能力，但在医疗行业数十年间积累了推动预测分析、为医疗机构提供专业建议以改善患者疗效及服务水平的经验。多年来，医疗界客户一直向我们提议：何不将顶尖资源整合？将Qualtrics近期验证的技术与AI平台，与Preskini在医疗领域的预测分析专长相结合。

Yeah, mean, first off, PG Forresta is very credible and has a wonderful track record in healthcare. They've also expanded into other areas and have been enabling market research capabilities as well. But in healthcare, they've got decades of experience in understanding how to drive predictive analytics, being able to provide expertise to healthcare organizations to drive better healthcare outcomes for patients and how providers serve patients. And for several years now, we've had customers in the healthcare community that have come to us and said, Why don't you actually put the best of the best together? Seeing Qualtrics proven technology and AI platform more recently, and combine that if there were a way with the expertise, predictive analytics that Preskini has had in the healthcare space.

因此归根结底，重点在于成果——为行业、客户和员工量身打造的解决方案，完全符合我们试图在市场实现的愿景，这一切都源自客户持续提出的需求。

And so at the end of the day, the focus is on outcomes, you know, purpose built for their industry, for their customers, for their employees, ultimately makes a lot of sense for what we're trying to enable in the market. And it's been driven by what customers have been asking for us.

所以根据我的理解，这次收购更多是为了产品而非客户基础。所以重点不在于'嘿，我们想要在医疗保健领域获得市场份额'，而是因为他们拥有我们需要的产品。

So from what I'm hearing, it was more for the products and not so much the customer base. So it wasn't so much a, Hey, you know, we want to gain market share in the healthcare segment. It was that they have products that we needed.

专业知识、预测分析能力，以及当这些与Qualtrics结合时，实际上能为客户创造一加一大于二的协同效应。

Expertise, predictive analytics, data that when you put it together with Qualtrics actually helps to create a one plus one plus, you know, equals five equation for customers.

没错。这是一笔大交易，67亿美元的交易。Qualtrics当然在几年前私有化了，我记得收购估值略高于120亿美元。这笔交易的倍数是多少？

Right. It was a it was a big deal. It was a $6,700,000,000 deal. Qualtrics, of course, went went private a couple years ago for I think it was just north of $12,000,000,000 was was the the takeout valuation. What was the multiple on this deal?

这个问题还是让我们的财务团队来回答吧。但我们认为这是一次非常健康的收购，很有意义，我认为很大程度上是因为这是我们为市场提供价值的正确途径。

You know, I'll let our finance guys speak to that. But but, you know, we felt like it's a very healthy acquisition that makes sense, you know, and I think a lot of it has to do with just the the right next way in which we can actually provide value to the marketplace.

我想和你聊聊Qualtrics的历史确实很精彩，对吧？它曾经是上市公司，经历了多种不同的所有权结构，但现在你们是与Silver Lake和CPPIB合作的私营公司。我想知道，作为私营公司在过去两年里，你们可能做到了哪些作为上市公司无法做到的事情？被私募股权公司拥有后...

And I do want to talk to you about Qualtrics has had a really fascinating history, right? It was once a public company. It's gone through many different ownership structures, but you are a private company now with Silver Lake and with CPPIB. I wonder, you know, what is it that you've been able to do perhaps as a private company over the past two years that you may not have been able to do as a public company? And how has being owned by private equity firms?

这对你们的运营方式产生了怎样的改变？

How has that sort of changed way in which you'd be able to operate?

嗯，我认为首先是公司的使命。我在Qualtrics已经九年了，之前在微软工作了将近十八年。我们是一家以使命为导向的公司，专注于通过与世界各地的组织合作，帮助他们理解如何以更主动和个性化的方式更好地支持和关怀自己的客户，从而提升人类体验。公司的每一个发展阶段，从申请上市到被SAP收购...

Well, I think first off, the mission of this company. I've been with Qualtrics for nine years, left after Microsoft, being at Microsoft for almost eighteen years. And, you know, we're a very mission purpose led company. Our focus is around helping to heighten or elevate the human experience by partnering with organizations around the world to help them understand how to better support and care for their own customers in a more proactive and personal way. And every chapter of this company, filed to go public, were acquired by SAP.

之后我们在SAP内部上市，然后又私有化。每一个里程碑——顺便说一句Akash，如你所知，这是一个非凡的故事。通常你不会看到这种情况——都是由那些全身心投入组织目标和使命的人引导的。所以当银湖资本和其他投资集团希望与我们合作时，目标是创建一个非凡的公司，真正帮助更多组织围绕体验进行创新，实时贴近客户，构建一个AI平台来助力创新这些关系和合作伙伴关系。自从私有化以来，我们实际上得以加倍投入。

We then went public after that within SAP, and then we went private. Every single one of those milestones, which by the way Akash, as you know, is an extraordinary story. You don't see that typically, has been guided by people who are all in on that purpose and that mission in the organization. So when Silver Lake and the investment groups came to want to partner with us, the goal was to go and create an extraordinary company that actually helps to enable more organizations to innovate around experiences, to get closer to their customers in real time, to build an AI platform that helps to be able to innovate these relationships and these partnerships that we have. So since we went private, we've actually been able to double down.

我们变得更高效。我们得以在全球范围内扩展规模。这实际上给了我们机会进行这类投资，比如我们刚刚宣布的那一项。

We've become more effective. We've been able to scale on a global level. And it's actually given us the opportunity to make these types of investments, such as the one that we just announced.

那么这些变化具体是怎样的？因为我们大致知道私募股权的传统玩法是让公司更高效、降低成本、优化人员编制，正如他们所说。那么作为一家私有公司，Qualtrics发生了什么，使其在财务上能够进行这次收购？

And so what sort of changes have those been? Because we sort of know what the private equity playbook traditionally has been to make companies more efficient, reduce costs, optimize headcount, as they say. So what has been happening at Qualtrics as a private company enabled that it to make this acquisition financially?

所有这一切都聚焦于客户。我们实际运营公司的速度，在全球层面与客户连接，确保公司现金流专注于我们在研发上的投入，推进我们在AI方面的一些核心投资。你知道，银湖合伙公司和其他投资者——BDTMSD、董事会、CPPIB（他们也是公司投资者）的独特之处在于，他们着眼长远。他们以所有权为荣，致力于打造一家能够长期传承的公司。他们多年来进行了出色的投资。

All of it's been on a focus on a customer. So speed in which we actually are able to operate the company on a global level to connect with customers, making sure that the cash flow of the company is dedicated to what we're doing in R and D, advancing some of the core investments we're making in AI. You know, one of the unique things about Silver Lake Partners and the other investors, BDTMSD, the board of directors, CPPIB, who are also investors in the company is they're playing the long game. They, you know, they take pride of ownership in building a company that will be a legacy to live on for long term. They built, you know, they had amazing investments over the years.

例如，戴尔、VMware，我曾与博通合作，以及最近市场上讨论的其他一些投资。所以我们有一群合作伙伴，他们真诚地希望打造一家卓越的公司，为市场提供巨大价值。尤其是在这个市场变革、技术即将改变的时代。

You know, example, Dell, VMware, I worked with Broadcom, you know, and more recently, some of the other investments have been talked about in the marketplace. So we have a group of partners who have, you know, sincere interest in building an amazing company that actually provides a lot of value to the marketplace. And especially at a time where, you know, you know, the market's changing, technology is going to change

而且

and

我们看到

we're seeing

软件公司确实在创新。人工智能无疑改变了软件公司的游戏规则。我很兴奋地看到它如何改变，以及你们在市场上如何运营Qualtrics。非常感谢Zig的到来，谈论你们完成的这次重大收购。我期待看到它的发展，我们必须再次邀请你回来，深入探讨你们如何进一步进军医疗保健市场。

Software companies are really innovating. AI has certainly, it certainly changes the game for software companies. And I'm excited to see how it's changing, how you operate Qualtrics in the marketplace. Thank you so much, Zig, for coming on and talking about this big acquisition you've done. I'm excited to see how it evolves, and we'll have to have you back again to talk more about how you're pushing even further into the healthcare market.

这位是Qualtrics的首席执行官Zig Seraphin。好的。几个月前，《信息报》报道称Reflection AI正在洽谈进行一轮重大融资。本周，该公司宣布以80亿美元的估值筹集了20亿美元。该公司得到了包括英伟达、光速创投和红杉资本在内的多家知名机构支持。

That is Zig Seraphin, the CEO of Qualtrics. Okay. Well, a few months ago, the information reported that Reflection AI was in talks to do a major funding round. And this week, the company announced that it has raised $2,000,000,000 at an $8,000,000,000 valuation. The company is backed by a number of big names, including NVIDIA, Lightspeed, and Sequoia.

我想请该公司的首席执行官Misha Laskin上台，进一步谈谈他对Reflection AI的规划。Misha，欢迎来到节目。很高兴

I want to bring on Misha Laskin, the CEO of the company, to talk more about what he has in store for Reflection AI. Misha, welcome to the show. It's great to

你能来。嗨，Kaj。谢谢邀请我。

have you. Hi, Kaj. Thanks for having me.

对你来说这是激动人心的一周。关于Reflection，有一些非常大的数字开始浮出水面。我想广泛地谈谈商业模式。你们将Reflection.ai定位为美国的DeepSeek。公司的愿景是什么？

Well, it's an exciting week for you. There are some really big numbers that are sort of coming to light about Reflection. I do want to talk about the business model broadly. So you sort of positioned Reflection dot ai to be the deep sea of The US. What is the vision for the company?

让我们从这里开始。

Let's start there.

这是个很好的问题。我认为2024年12月DeepSeek推出时，对我们美国来说是一个巨大的警醒，它展示了我们生产前沿开放模型并将其输出到世界其他地方的能力。因此，我们正在构建能够与最强者抗衡的前沿开放模型智能。这将是一种既能为美国也能为外部世界在其智能需求上构建基础的模型。从商业角度来看，最倾向于这种模式的是那些拥有最大AI工作负载的客户。

Well, it's a great question. I mean, I think that what happened with DeepSeek in December 2024, when it was launched, is that it was a massive wake up call for us in The US in the ability to produce frontier open models and export them to the rest of the world. So we are building the frontier open model intelligence that will punch with the best of them. And it will be the kind of model that both the states and the world externally can build on top of for their intelligence needs. Now, from a commercial perspective, the kinds of customers that gravitate most towards this are the ones who have the largest AI workloads.

因此，这可能是大型企业客户或大型初创公司，它们消耗大量智能资源，并希望掌握部分自主权，对自己的模型进行后训练。这大致是我们运营的商业领域。

And so this could be large enterprise customers or large startups that are consuming a lot of intelligence and want to own some of their own destiny and post train their own models. That's kind of the commercial territory where we operate.

那么，Misha，这里的想法是开源模型使用起来更便宜吗？我的意思是，在财务上有什么优势？

And so, Misha, is the idea here that open source models are cheaper to use? I mean, what is the advantage there financially?

我认为优势在于，一旦你成为大型企业中智能资源的大量消费者，你会希望拥有自己的智能，在自己的基础设施上运行它，能够访问权重，以便为各种应用进行定制。因此，你希望控制自己的智能，以在任务表现不佳时提升性能，或在运行良好但希望获得更高性能时降低成本。所以这实际上是关于控制、可定制性和模型的完全所有权。

I think the advantage is that once you become a big consumer of intelligence in your large enterprise, you want to own your intelligence, you want to run it on your infrastructure, you want to have access to the weights, so you can customize it for various applications. So you want control over your intelligence to drive both higher performance on tasks where it might not be working as well for you or drive down costs where things are working, but you want them to more performance. So it's really about control, customizability, and full ownership of the model.

那么这并不是关于它更便宜。听起来，我的意思是，你知道，DeepSeek 提出的整个想法是，哦，他们可能不需要使用那么多计算资源，但后来有更多发现表明，嘿，也许那并不完全正确。我真正想问的是，对于应用层公司或使用 AI 的企业软件公司来说，一个大问题是模型的使用成本很高，对吧？我们讨论过这一点，模型的成本似乎并没有像人们预期的那样下降。

So it's not about it being cheaper then. It sounds like I mean, you know, the whole idea with DeepSeek that came up was the idea that, oh, they might not have had to use as much compute, but then there were some more findings that, hey. Well, maybe that wasn't really true. And and the question really I'm trying to get at is a big problem for application layer companies, for example, or enterprise software companies that are using AI is that the models are expensive to use, right? And so we've talked about this, the cost of the models hasn't seemed to come down the way people thought.

我的想法是，也许开源 AI 可以解决这个问题。

And my thought was maybe open source AI could be the solution to that.

是的。你绝对正确，这确实关乎性价比。当你能够控制模型时，你就能为各种任务定制它。因此，有一个性价比的论点，也许你能够更高效地训练模型，就像 DeepSeek 那样，它开箱即用更具性价比。这是一点。

Yes. So you're definitely right that it is about cost performance. It's about when you have control over the model, then you're able to customize it for various tasks. And so there is a cost performance argument for maybe you're able to train the model more efficiently and like DeepSeek, it's more cost performant out of the box. That's one thing.

但另一方面是，你能够获取那个模型并为你的各种工作负载进行定制。对吧。这也使其更具性价比。对吧。除此之外，还有所有权、安全性、合规性以及其他企业关心的因素，这些共同使其成为他们消费智能的首选方式。

But the other part is you being able to take that model and customize it for your various workloads. Right. And that enables it to be more cost performant as well. Right. And so on top of that, then there's ownership and security and compliance and all these other things that enterprises care about, in addition, that make it the default way in which they want to consume intelligence.

没错。你为什么不能在Meta这样的公司里做这件事呢？或者你之前在谷歌工作过。Meta正在开发他们自己的开源模型。为什么不去像Meta这样的公司？

Right. Why couldn't you have built this at a Meta, for example? Or at a You were previously at Google. Meta is working on their own open source models. Why not go to a company like Meta?

也许马克·扎克伯格给你打过电话说，嘿，就在这儿做你正在做的事情。我的意思是，你有没有考虑过这种情况？

Maybe Mark Zuckerberg called you up and said, Hey, just build what you're building here. I mean, can you ever think about that?

嗯，这确实是个好问题，Akash。我认为根本原因在于，你需要处于一个商业激励与研究保持开放的激励相一致的位置。如果没有这种一致性，当它们不匹配时，你就会陷入本末倒置的局面，因为作为一家开放公司，实际上没有任何一点与你的商业目标相关。所以我认为之前几代公司的情况是，它们的商业目标与打造一家开放智能公司所需的目标不同。因此，选择独立运营的原因是为了让这两者完全一致，这样你才能继续贯彻你的使命，成为一家开放模型公司，而不是一开始是开放模型公司，然后因为产品将你引向不同方向而不得不在某个时候突然改变策略。

Well, really it's good question, Akash. And I think the fundamental thing here is that you need to be in a position where the commercial incentives are aligned with the research incentives of staying open. Without such a thing, when they're misaligned, then you're in a tail wagging dog situation where there's nothing about being an open company that actually correlates with your commercial objectives. And so what I think has happened with previous iteration of companies is that they've had different commercial objectives than what's required to build out an open intelligence company. And so the reason to do this in a standalone is that to have those two things be entirely aligned so that you can continue seeing your mission through and being an open model company, rather than starting off as an open model company and then having to pull a rug at some point because your product is taking you in a different direction.

我想谈谈你刚刚完成的融资轮。英伟达在其中扮演了重要角色。这轮融资的主要投资者是谁？

I want to talk about the fundraising round that you just did. Nvidia was a big part of it. Who was the lead investor for this funding round?

显然英伟达发挥了非常大的作用。我们有很多重要投资者加入。Disruptive发挥了重要作用。DST、1789、B Capital。我们现有的投资者Lightspeed、Sequoia

So obviously Nvidia played a very big role. We've had a number of major investors come in. Disruptive played a big role. DST did seventeen eighty nine, B Capital. Our existing investors, Lightspeed, Sequoia

没错。

Right.

CRV。所以我们得到了很多投资者的支持，共同推动这一使命。

CRV. So we've had a of, you know, investors support us in in the mission here.

这显然是一轮大规模融资。但我只是想弄清楚。我的意思是，领投方理论上意味着他们投入了最多的资金。据报Nvidia在这一轮投入了8亿美元。在20亿美元总额中占8亿，这是相当大的份额。

It was obviously a large round. But I I just wanna understand. So I mean, lead investor, Conceivably, means they put in the most money. And I mean, it's been reported that Nvidia put $800,000,000 into the round. 800 out of 2,000,000,000 is a pretty big chunk.

那么这是否意味着其他投资者中有人投入的资金比Nvidia更多？

So does that imply that one of those other investors put in more money than Nvidia?

与其说是其他投资者投入更多资金，不如说像这样的融资轮要能实现，需要有多方面的支持。资金并非全部来自单一渠道。确实，有几家投资者都进行了大规模投资。

It's not so much about, like other investors putting in more money. It's more around, in order for a round like this to materialize, you have to have multiple points of support. It's not just all coming from one place. And right, several investors came in there in a big way.

好吧。但没有领投方。没有主要投资者。

Okay. But there was no lead. No lead investor.

嗯，如我所说，多家投资者都以巨额资金参与

Well, as I said, a number of investors came in a Last big

我有个问题，想谈谈构建这些模型的芯片要素。NVIDIA当然是大家都依赖的公司。在你们开发模型的过程中，你们只使用NVIDIA的芯片吗？是否也使用AMD的芯片？你们的计算资源组合是怎样的？

question I do, I just want to talk about sort of the chip element to building these models. NVIDIA, of course, you know, is a company that everyone relies on. As you develop your models, are you only using NVIDIA's chips? Are you using AMD's chips as well? What does your sort of portfolio of compute look like?

是这样，我们将使用市场上最好的芯片。就我们目前正在搭建的集群而言，市场上即将推出的最佳芯片是NVIDIA的下一代Blackwell系列。因此我们与NVIDIA紧密合作，将与他们携手获取进行大规模训练所需的计算资源。但根本上，推动这家公司的是构建一个繁荣的AI生态系统，并与

So, you know, we are going be using the best chips on the market. And right for, you know, the cluster we're setting up now, the best chips on the market that are going to be coming out, right, are the next generation of Blackwells that are coming from NVIDIA. So we are working closely with NVIDIA. We will be partnering with them on getting the compute required for us to do our large scale training runs. But fundamentally, drives this company is, right, working is building a thriving AI ecosystem and working with

最好的芯片来做到这一点。对。太好了。嗯，谢谢你，米沙，来参加我们的节目。这对你来说是激动人心的一周，我相信你这个周末至少会找时间休息一下。

the best chips to do so. Right. Great. Well, thank you, Misha, for coming on the show. It is an exciting week for you, and I trust you are going to find some time at least to rest this weekend.

我们非常感谢你的到来。这位是Reflection AI的首席执行官米沙·拉斯金，在TI TV的节目上。好的。自称为《天才法案》的新稳定币法律通过刚刚两个多月，它已经对加密货币市场产生了巨大影响，催生了新的竞争者，试图从稳定币巨头Tether和Circle手中夺取控制权。我想请上我们的加密货币记者杨月驰，他本周就这一主题发表了一些出色的报道。

We appreciate you coming on. That is Misha Laskin, the CEO of Reflection AI here on TI TV. Okay. It's been just over two months since the passage of a new stablecoin law called the Genius Act, and it's already having a big impact on crypto markets, giving rise to new competitors looking to seize control from stablecoin giants, Tether and Circle. I want to bring on Yuechi Yang, our crypto reporter who published some great reporting on the topic this week.

月驰，欢迎来到节目。很高兴你能回来。

Yuechi, welcome to the show. It's great to have you back.

嘿，阿卡什。谢谢邀请我。

Hey, Akash. Thanks for having me.

那么我们来谈谈稳定币吧。《天才法案》。你看，它通过了，对吧？几个月前，对此有过一番大肆宣扬。传达的信息是，嗯，初创公司将打开闸门，公司能够更深入地涉足稳定币。

So let's talk about stablecoins. The genius act. So look, it was passed, okay? There was a couple months ago, there was a big song and dance about it. And the message was, I mean, floodgates are going to open for startups, companies being able to dive deeper into stablecoins.

过去几个月我们在这一方面看到了什么？

What have we seen over the past few months to that respect?

是的，所以我们立刻看到了更多公司推出稳定币。我得说，先行者绝对是加密货币公司。这些是加密货币交易所、钱包，甚至是推出自己稳定币的区块链。原因在于它们已经拥有大量目前正在使用像Tether和Circle这样的稳定币的用户。因此，它们有强烈的动机减少对外部稳定币的依赖，它们可以通过推出自己的稳定币来实现这一点，这样它们自己或它们的用户就可以从稳定币储备资产产生的收入中受益。

Yeah, so we immediately saw a lot more companies launching stablecoins. I will say that the first movers are definitely crypto companies. And these are crypto exchanges, wallets, and even blockchains that are launching their own stablecoins. And the reason for that is that they already have a lot of users that are currently using stablecoins like Tether and Circle. So they're highly motivated to reduce their own dependency on outside stablecoins, and they can do so by launching their own so that they themselves or their users can benefit from the revenue generated from the reserve assets from stablecoins.

那么在过去几个月里，有哪些大公司开始更深入地涉足稳定币领域，无论是发行稳定币，还是甚至开始讨论支持这个生态系统？

And who are some of the major companies that have started to wade deeper into the stablecoin space over the past few months, whether it be issuing them or, you know, even starting to talk about supporting the ecosystem?

当然。新入局的玩家，我认为包括Stripe，他们正在使用今年以11亿美元收购的初创公司Bridge为其他公司发行稳定币。Anchorage是另一个在市场上有动作的参与者，他们是目前唯一拥有国家信托特许的加密公司，最引人注目的是与Tether合作，在美国市场为Tether发行新稳定币。我认为这一代新玩家的不同之处在于，他们从事的是所谓的'稳定币即服务'业务。

Sure. So the new players, I would say, include Stripe, which is issuing stablecoins for other companies using Bridge, a startup that they acquired this year for $1,100,000,000 And Anchorage is another player that's making moves in the market. They are the only crypto company with a national trust charter at the moment. And they most notably got a partnership with Tether to issue the new stablecoin for Tether in The US market. And I think one thing that's different for these new generation of players is that they are in the business of what they call stablecoin issuance as a service.

所以Stripe并不是推出自己的稳定币，而是代表客户发行稳定币。他们让其他公司能够非常轻松快速地做到这一点，并且只收取少量费用。

So Stripe is not launching its own stablecoin. It is launching stablecoins on behalf of their clients. And they make it very easy and quick for other companies to do so. And they only charge a small fee for doing that.

那么这些稳定币即服务公司是非常有趣的一类初创公司。那这些公司的客户呢？我是说，那些自己发行代币的公司是哪些？

And what about the companies that stablecoin as a service company is is a very interesting category of startups. What about the the the companies, I guess, their customers? You know, who are the people that are the companies that are issuing the coins themselves?

Stripe的Bridge正在为几家加密公司发行稳定币，其中包括加密钱包

So Stripe's Bridge is launching stablecoins for a few com crypto companies, and that includes crypto wallets

是的。

Yeah.

MetaMask和Fantom。这两个都是非常受欢迎、拥有大量用户的加密钱包。他们还在为原生市场发行稳定币，这是Hyperliquid的合作伙伴，而Hyperliquid是目前增长最快的永续合约交易所。他们也有大量潜在用户可能会使用这些新稳定币。

MetaMask and Fantom. Both are very highly popular crypto wallets that have a lot of users. And they're also launching stablecoins for native markets, which is a partner for Hyperliquid, which is currently the fastest growing perpetual exchange. And they also have a lot of users that could potentially use these new stablecoins.

那么所有这些现在拥有自己稳定币的公司，它们彼此之间是否构成竞争？

And so all these companies that have their own stablecoins now, do they not pose competition to one another?

是的，确实如此。这正是我们所预期的。但所有新推出的稳定币仍处于非常早期的阶段。目前其中许多的市值仅在数千万美元级别。

Yes. They do. And that's what we expect. And but all the new launches are still very early. A lot of them are in the tens of millions of dollars of market cap right now.

因此，与Tether和Circle的稳定币相比，目前规模还相当小。我们需要观察它们能多快取得进展。

So that's quite small at the moment comparing to Tether and Circle's stablecoins. So we'll need to see how quickly they can gain ground.

对于那些决定发行稳定币的公司来说，发行稳定币的业务利润如何？因为我知道像Circle这样的公司，例如，与Coinbase有非常大的合作关系，基本上你需要为这些稳定币的分发付费。这是否是这些新进入该领域的公司开始意识到的一个挑战？

And for all these companies that are deciding that they want to issue stablecoins, how profitable is the business of issuing stablecoins? Because I know companies like Circle, for example, have a very big partnership with Coinbase where, you know, you have to pay for distribution essentially of these stablecoins. Is this a challenge that these newer companies are starting to sort of realize as they move into the space?

是的，这并非一个利润丰厚的业务。我认为这自然引发了一个问题：如果仅将其视为一项独立服务，其商业模式是否可持续？显然，Stripe和Anchorage在发行稳定币时，可以通过为客户提供的其他附加服务赚钱。但我们看到的是，稳定币市场正迅速成为一个利润率极低的商品化业务。Stripe表示会将稳定币业务的所有收入转给合作伙伴，仅扣除非常小的50个基点的费用。我们在Bigel（为特朗普家族的世界自由项目发行稳定币的公司）也看到了同样的趋势。

Yes. It is not a problem business for at And the I think that naturally raises the question how sustainable the business model is if you consider it only as a standalone service, and obviously Stripe and Anchorage, they could make money to other add on services that they provide for their clients when they issue their stablecoins. But what we see is that the stablecoin market is quickly becoming a commodity business with very low margin. Stripe says it will pass along all the revenue from the stablecoin business to their partners, minus a very small fee of 50 basis point. And we also saw the same trend with Bigel, which is issuing the stablecoin for the Trump family's world liberty project.

根据他们的财务记录显示，今年上半年他们从这项服务中获得了约1570万美元的收入，但其中大部分，即1520万美元，支付给了合作伙伴。

And from their financial record show that they made about 15,700,000.0 revenue in the first half of this year from this service, but they paid out the majority of them, $15,200,000 to their partner.

那么最后一个问题，Aichi。如果这不是一个盈利的业务，为什么要做呢？

And so last question for you, Aichi. If it's not a profitable operation, why do it?

嗯，目前这确实是一场竞赛。我认为这些公司的首要任务是先获取市场份额，然后再考虑如何从中盈利。很多这类初创公司都是由风险投资资金支持的，所以他们确实有相当多的现金可以投入。

Well, it is a race at the moment. And I think the priority for these companies to is to gain market share first and then figure out how they can make money from it later. And a lot of these startups are funded by VC money. So they do have quite a lot of cash to I do

我的意思是，更多地思考这类业务的长期盈利前景，以及它们对交易所促成交易的依赖程度。思考它们能否在长期内实现盈利是件挺有趣的事，因为到目前为止，我们似乎还没有确定一个真正可行的商业模式。总之，Yuechi，非常感谢你参加节目。我们真的很感激。我鼓励大家阅读我们本周发表的那篇报道。

mean, more just think about sort of the long term profitability prospects of this business and how reliant they are on the exchanges to sort of facilitate the transactions here. It's, it's kind of interesting to think about if they could become profitable in the long run, because so far, it feels like we haven't quite decided on the business model that that actually works. Anyway, Yuechi, thanks so much for coming on the show. We really appreciate it. I encourage everyone to read that story that we published this week.

我相信还会有更多新闻，所以我们期待再次邀请你。这位是The Information的加密货币记者Yuechi Yang。在这个节目中，我们经常谈论那些真正蓬勃发展的公司，但初创公司的现实当然是它们非常艰难，并非每家公司都能按照创始人最初的预期发展。因此，今天我们邀请了一位不得不做出艰难决定、结束公司运营的创始人。Aaron Diggenon共同创立了一家名为Plum的公司。

I'm sure there's more news to come, so we look forward to having you on again. That is Yuechi Yang, our crypto reporter here at The Information. On this show, we talk a lot about the companies that are really thriving, but the reality of startups, of course, is that they are really hard, and not every company pans out the way founders initially expected they would. And so today, we're bringing on one founder who had to make the difficult decision to wind down operations at his company. Aaron Diggenon co founded a company called Plum.

这是一家他为之奋斗了五年的AI公司。可以想象，Aaron对事情为何没有按他最初预期的方式发展有很多反思。Aaron，欢迎来到TI TV。很高兴你能来。

It was an AI company that he's been working on for five years. And as you can imagine, Aaron has a ton of reflections on why things may not have worked out the way he initially expected. Aaron, welcome to TI TV. It's great to have you.

嘿，谢谢。很高兴来到这里。

Hey, thanks. It's good to be here.

那么你度过了重要的一周。我的意思是，看起来这对你来说是一个充满重大决策的一周。

So you've had a big week. I mean, it's been a big week of decisions for you, it looks like.

是啊。或者说是半个 decade（十年），这取决于你怎么计算。

Yeah. Or a half decade, depending on how you count.

就是这样。是的。嗯，确实如此。这都是大故事的一部分。听着，在我们谈论你刚刚经历的这一周和那个决定之前，Pomp最初的愿景是什么？

There you go. Yeah. Well, that's true. It was all it's all part of the big story. Look, before we talk about the week that you just had and the decision, what was the original vision for Pomp?

是的，核心愿景是，你看到像N8N、刚推出的OpenAI智能体构建器、Gumloop等工具，它们用AI自动化流程、任务和工作。我们的观点是，虽然世界上有很多人会花时间学习如何做到这一点，但无论它多么无代码，它仍然相当技术性。如果能有一个类似Substack的AI工作流平台，让你可以订阅别人的创作，然后在你的商业生活中自动化和定制某些东西，那将是非常棒的。这就是我们当时所追求的使命。

Yeah, the core vision here is you see tools like N8N, the open AI agent builder that just came out, Gumloop and others automating processes and tasks and work with AI. And our thesis was while there are many people in the world that will take the time to learn how to do that, it's quite technical no matter how no code it is. And it would be amazing if there were kind of a substack for AI workflows where you could subscribe to someone else's creation that would then automate and customize something in your business life. And so that's kind of the mission that we ran against.

明白了。所以你有那个使命。为什么你最终决定这周要结束这一切？

Got it. And so you had that mission. Why did you decide ultimately to wind things down this week?

我认为我们决定我们要么是太早了，要么是错了，可能还是太早了。现实是，能够真正自动化完整智能工作流并在工作中实际有效运行的人数有多少，对吧？因为有很多炒作，但现实是人数很少。而在这些人中，很多人通过收取高额费用来定制、咨询并进入组织内部解决问题，从而受益匪浅。所以我们确实无法建立起这个等式中的创作者经济方面。

I think we have decided that we're either early or wrong and probably early. The reality is the number of people who can actually automate like full agentic workflows in work that actually work, right? Because there's a lot of hype and then there's the reality is a small number. And of those, a lot of those people benefit greatly by charging a lot of money to customize and consult and kind of go inside organizations and fix that. So we really had an inability to build a creator economy side of this equation.

很多人想要订阅解决方案，但没有足够的人愿意以足够低的价格创建并分享一些东西，从而在当下形成整个市场效应。所以我认为我们仍然处于智能体和智能工作流所能做的事情的早期阶段。我们认为那个市场可能会在以后实现。

Lots of people want to subscribe to solutions, but there weren't enough people that were willing to create something that they share at a at a low enough price point to create a whole marketplace effect right now. So I think we're just still in the early innings of what agents and agentic workflows are going to do. And we think that that marketplace may may come to fruition later down the road.

所以从你的角度来看，当你反思这一点时，这更多的是一个技术挑战占主导地位，还是一个商业模式挑战？

And so from your end, as you reflect on this, was this more of a technical challenge that really dominated, or was it a business model challenge?

我认为是商业模式挑战。我们能够发明这项技术。我的意思是，像元JSON模式这样的东西允许你与成千上万的其他人共享一个工作流。但挑战更多在于，市场存在吗？商业模式正确吗？

I think it's a business model challenge. We were able to invent the technology. I mean, things like meta JSON schema that allow you to actually share a workflow with thousands of other people. But the challenge was more, you know, is the market there? Is the business model right?

你们是如何优化这些业务线的？虽然我们感觉已经非常接近了，但从风险投资规模的角度来看，我们就是无法完全看清前景。所以我们仍然非常致力于这个领域，仍然对AI自动化这个有价值的赛道很感兴趣。只是觉得需要彻底重新开始，用全新的思路来思考。

How do you kind of optimize those lines? And while we felt like we were very close, it, you know, from a from a like line of sight to venture scale perspective, we just couldn't quite see it. And so we're still really committed to the space. We're still really interested in AI automation as a valuable place to play. We just felt like we needed to like wipe the slate clean and think about it fresh.

公司当时有多少员工？

How many employees did you did you have at the company?

七个人，就像一个精简的从零到一团队。是的。

Seven people really like a lean kind of zero to one team. Yep.

好的。那团队现在有什么打算？你们会尝试创办一家新的初创公司吗？我的意思是，有没有在讨论谁会雇佣这些人？外界的反应如何？

Okay. And and what's what's in store for the team now? Are you guys going to try to start a new a new startup? I mean, have you talking about who's going to hire these people? What's the response been?

这是非常奇怪的一周。我前天在推特上分享了我们的经验教训和关闭公司的消息。已经有超过100家AI公司主动联系想要接收这个团队。基本上除了Sam之外所有人都给我发了私信，问接下来有什么打算。所以我们正在筛选和梳理这些机会。

It's been a very weird week. So I I tweeted about our lessons learned and about the shutdown, you know, the day before yesterday. And we've had over 100 inbound AI companies looking after the team. So, like basically everybody but Sam has DM'd me and been like, Hey, what's next? So we're filtering and sifting through all that.

我们希望找到一个好去处让这个团队保持完整，因为这是一个非常出色的团队。这是首要任务。然后，第二个任务可能是重新挂起招牌再试一次。

And we we hope to find a good place to keep this band together because it's an incredible team. So that's that's job one. And then, you know, job two might be to to hang a shingle and try again.

那么你会再次尝试AI领域吗？会开始新的项目吗？

And so are you going to take your hand again at an AI store? Are you going to start something new?

我想我们会的。是的。问题在于我们是立即行动，还是先找个地方休整一下，练习一下我们学到的技能再开始。但我是一个跨代创业者，这已经是我第四或第五次创业了。所以我肯定很快又会手痒的。

I think we will. Yeah. The question is whether we do that right away or if we if we find a place to kind of rest and exercise some of the skills that we learn before we do that. But I'm a multi generational entrepreneur, and this is my fourth or fifth thing. So I'm definitely going to get the itch again soon.

没错。我确实想和你广泛聊聊。我的意思是，你在这个生态系统中已经有一段时间了。你知道，你做出了艰难的决定，结束业务并可能重新开始。这在硅谷我们很少听到，不是因为这种情况不发生，而是因为当它发生时，很少有人愿意谈论它，这是一个情感上的决定。

Right. I do want to talk to you broadly. I mean, you've been in this ecosystem for a while here. You know, you have made the difficult decision to wind things down and maybe start fresh. This is something that we don't hear a lot about in Silicon Valley because not because it doesn't happen, but because when it does happen, few people want to talk about it, and it's an emotional decision.

是的。你知道，我在想，我们有这么多AI初创公司。并不是所有公司都能成功。

Yeah. You know, I wonder, we have all of these AI startups. Not all of them are gonna work out.

大部分都不会。

Most of them.

大部分是的。完全正确。而且我们不会听到它们失败的时候，因为它们会悄无声息地逐渐消失。我想说的是，你是否看到了任何范式转变？你知道，公开谈论失败的经历是否变得越来越被接受了？

Most yeah. Exactly. And and we're not gonna hear about the times when they don't work out because they'll sort of quietly fizzle out. You know, I guess what I'm trying to get is, have you seen a paradigm shift at all? You know, is it becoming more sort of accepted to sort of talk openly about the times when things don't work out?

你知道，这对人们在大科技公司寻找下一个机会意味着什么？我的意思是，如果曾经有污名的话，现在这种污名是否已经消失了？

You know, how does that bode for the next opportunity people look for at big tech companies? I mean, has the stigma kind of gone away if there was one?

我认为市场在这方面领先于人们的思维模式。所以，你知道，你可能会认为关闭公司、努力实现目标却未能成功会带来一些评判。但我从更广泛的社区听到的只有支持。我的意思是，有数百条评论，它们都是支持性的。这在X（推特）上一般来说是很不寻常的。

I think that the market is ahead of people's mental models on this one. So, you know, you would think shutting down, you know, struggling to succeed in what you set out to do would come with some judgment. I have heard nothing but support from the broader community. I mean, it's, you know, hundreds of comments and they're all supportive. So that's unusual on X just in general.

我觉得很多创业者，尤其是那些比较年轻、第一次或第二次尝试的人，会觉得好像有什么不对劲，需要隐藏起来。我想鼓励这些人，这是一个非常支持性的社区，尽管竞争可能很激烈，但它确实是支持性的。否则，我们的每一个竞争对手都给我发私信，说了支持的话。所以我想说，学习的价值远远超过了污名化的问题，值得去面对。

And I feel like a lot of entrepreneurs, especially if they're younger and this is their first or second swing, they feel like somehow there's something wrong and that they need to hide from it. And I would just encourage people like this is a really supportive community as as as hard as it can be in competition. It's supportive. Otherwise, every single competitor of ours has DM'd me and with supportive words. And so I would say like the value of the learning far exceeds the problem of the stigma And it is worth getting out there.

最后一个问题。我们谈到了大多数AI初创公司可能不会像人们预期的那样成功。当你看到这些初创公司如雨后春笋般涌现时，你担心什么？我们有这些大额融资轮次进来。让我们暂时把估值放在一边。

And last question for you. You know, we talked about how most of these AI startups won't pan out the way people are. What are you concerned about as you sort of watch these startups proliferate? We have these big funding rounds that are coming in. Let's put valuations aside for a second.

我的意思是，我们暂时先不谈巨额资金的问题。但你知道，你显然已经剖析了你过去五年一直在努力的策略。对于这些AI初创公司在构建技术或商业模式方面的一些做法，你担心什么，或者有什么让你觉得是警示信号？

I mean, you know, we'll put the sheer amount of money on the side for a second. But, you know, you've sort of you've obviously taken apart your strategy that you've been working on the last five years. What concerns you or what's a bit of a red flag for you in the way that some of these AI startups are going about building their technology or building their business model even?

我认为我们有两个主要担忧。其中一个我们花了很多时间关注，就是这些平台的整体可靠性和安全性。这个领域有很多关于像MCP这样的东西的兴奋点，我们认为它们代表了真正的安全漏洞。所以我认为会出现一些技术失败的故事，比如没有达到炒作的水平，还有一些关键漏洞，比如获取信息甚至资金流动不当。我们会看看情况如何发展。

I think there are two big concerns that we have. And one of them we spend a lot of time on, which is just the overall reliability and security of these platforms. There's a lot of excitement in the category about things like MCP that represent real security gaps, we believe. So I think there's going to be some stories of both technology failure, like just not living up to the hype, but also like pretty critical gaps in, you know, getting information or even money moving around that shouldn't be moving around. So we'll see how that plays out.

我认为我们会看到一些负面的东西。另一个担忧是，目前AI的底层经济依赖于某种代币套利。有很多、很多、很多初创公司现在在以90美分的价格卖一美元的东西。有时候如果你能达到足够的规模，成为太阳系中最大的行星，这可能行得通。但对很多人来说，数学最终是算不过来的。

I think we'll see some negative, you know, stuff there. And then the other one is just the underlying economy of AI right now runs on kind of token arbitrage. And there are a lot, a lot, a lot of startups that are selling a dollar for 90¢ right now. And sometimes that pans out if you can achieve enough scale and you can be the biggest planet in the solar system. But for a lot of folks, the math eventually just isn't going to pencil.

我认为我们甚至会在公开市场上看到这种情况上演。

And I think we'll even see that play out in the public markets as well.

太好了。Aaron，非常感谢你来参加节目。我们真的很感激。感谢你在这里坦诚相待。这是一个艰难的决定，我很抱歉事情没有按你希望的方式发展，但我真的很高兴听到你对未来充满热情。

Great. Well, Aaron, thank you so much for coming on the show. We really appreciate it. We appreciate you being candid with us here. It's it's a difficult decision, and I'm I'm sorry that things didn't work the way you wanted, but I I I really I'm I'm excited to hear that you have a lot of enthusiasm for what's coming next.

感谢您来到我们的节目。这里是TI TV，这位是Plum的联合创始人兼首席执行官Aaron Dignan。好的。电子商务正在悄然复苏，这是我们今天出版的周末杂志的主题。这次复苏最有趣的部分是，如今推动这一领域的公司群体看起来与几年前蓬勃发展的电子商务公司截然不同。

Thank you for coming on the show. That's Aaron Dignan, the co founder and the CEO of Plum here on TI TV. Okay. E commerce is seeing a quiet revival, and it is the subject of our weekend magazine that publishes today. And most interesting part of this revival is that the crop of companies carrying this sector now looks very different to the e commerce companies that were booming as of a few years ago.

我想请出我们的电子商务记者Ann Gien，以及Bullish的管理合伙人Michael Duda——不是加密货币公司Bullish，而是专注于消费者领域的投资和营销公司Bullish。他们是Warby Parker、Peloton和Harry's等公司的支持者。欢迎Michael。Michael，欢迎你，伙计。非常高兴两位能来。

I want to bring on Ann Gien, our e commerce reporter, and Michael Duda, managing partner at Bullish, not the crypto company Bullish, but rather Bullish, the investing and marketing company that focuses on consumer. They are backers of companies like Warby Parker and Peloton and Harry's. Welcome, Michael. And Michael and welcome, man. It is so great to have you both.

Anne，你写了这篇精彩的文章，它带我们回顾了过去五年电子商务的历史。请给我们简要概述一下，然后我们再谈谈该行业的现状。

Anne, you wrote this great story, and it sort of took us a little bit through the history of ecommerce over the past five years. Give us a very brief sort of overview of that, and then we'll talk about where the sector is today.

当然。我的意思是，电子商务在过去五年左右经历了非常疯狂的旅程。回想2020年，当每个人都困在家里，花时间在手机、笔记本电脑、Tik Tok上时，在线购物在那段时间真正蓬勃发展。然后随着情况逐渐恢复正常，人们稍微减少了支出，风险投资也减少了投资。该行业在过去几年经历了非常艰难的时期，许多公司不得不大幅削减成本。

Sure. I mean, ecommerce has been on a very wild ride over the past five years or so. So if you think back to 2020, when everyone was stuck at home spending time on their phones, laptops, Tik Tok, online shopping really boomed during that time. And then as things kind of opened back up, people pulled back on spending a little bit, VCs pulled back on investing. The sector went through a really tough period for the past couple of years and saw a lot of companies either have to really aggressively cut costs.

我们在那段时间写了很多关于裁员的故事，写了很多关于CEO更替的故事。你看到很多公司申请破产或出售。但现在我们回来了。似乎我们...是的。而且过去一年左右出现了一批新的公司，它们增长迅速，在许多情况下已经盈利或非常接近盈利。

We wrote a lot of layoff stories during that time, wrote a lot of CEO change stories during that time. You saw a lot of companies file for bankruptcy or But sell we're back now. It seems like we're We're Yeah. And there's been kind of this new crop of companies that has come up in the past year or so where they're fast growing. They, in many cases, are already profitable or very close to it.

它们正在非常积极地扩张零售业务。我认为投资者再次对这个类别感到兴奋，这很好，因为过去几年很多人对消费领域失去了兴趣，但这些新品牌让很多人再次兴奋起来。

They're expanding in retail very aggressively. And I think investors are really excited again about the category, which is great because a lot of people kind of turned their back on consumer over the past couple of years, but a lot of these new brands have people excited again.

那么Mike，这个故事最有趣的部分之一是DTC（直接面向消费者）的演变是如何展开的。我记得几年前，全是关于DTC的。我的意思是，这是这些公司正在进行的重大商业模式变革。而Ann的文章中提到的一点是，我们某种程度上又回归了旧有的思维方式，思考如何利用像亚马逊这样的网站，并实际涉足实体店。这种思维是如何改变的？

So Mike, one of the most interesting parts of the story here is how the evolution of DTC has sort of panned out. I remember a couple of years ago, it was all DTC. I mean, this was the big business model change that these companies were making. And one of the things that Ann's story got into is we've sort of come back a bit to sort of the old ways of thinking about how we leverage sites like Amazon and actually approach brick and mortar. How has that thinking changed?

是的。嗯，这一切都源于消费者——这个国家热爱消费。我的意思是，我们经济中的69%是由消费者支出驱动的，所以他们总会找到办法。所以任何出现下滑的趋势往往都会反弹。但是

Yeah. Well, it all starts as consumers this nation loves to consume. I mean, 69% of our economy is driven by consumer spending, so they're going to find a way. So anything that gets a dip tends to come back. But

确实有

there was

2021年对许多DTC（直接面向消费者）品牌来说是一次重击，当时苹果推出了iOS 14，这相当于向Facebook和Meta宣战。那些阅读信息的硅谷投资者们因为CAC（客户获取成本）等原因，一直在向DTC领域大量注资。结果那变成了一个错误。而且当时情况非常混乱。因此公司们不得不重新学习一个基本真理。

a punch in the face in 2021 to a lot of DTC when Apple unleashed iOS 14, which was a declaration war on on Facebook and Meta. And all those lovely Silicon Valley investors that that read the information were pumping stuff into DTC because of CAC and that. Well, that became a fault. And there was so standing egg count. And so companies had to relearn the basic truth.

如果你服务好你的客户，了解消费者旅程是什么样的，就遵循它。并不是所有事情都必须在线完成。我的意思是，疫情期间，我认为27%的销售额来自线上。那还是在各种场所关闭的情况下。对吧。

If you serve your customer and know what the consumer journey is, follow that. And not everything has to be online. I mean, during the pandemic, I think 27% of all sales were online. That was when stuff was shut down. Right.

而现在这个比例正在回升。我认为已经回升了三到四个百分点。现在大约是总销售额的19%。所以这方面正在恢复，而电子商务是参与消费者旅程的一个强大武器。

And now it's on the way back up. I think it's gone up three or four points. I think it's 19% of all sales So on that things are coming back, and e commerce is a powerful weapon to be part of that consumer journey.

但是广告成本呢？我的意思是，我们看到很多这些公司依赖Instagram营销作为连接客户的主要方式。Mike，现在这对他们来说是不是变得太贵了？这方面的思维方式发生了什么变化？

But what about the advertising costs? I mean, we saw so many of these companies rely on Instagram marketing, for example, to be their main way of connecting with customers. Mike, has that become too expensive now for them? How has the thinking around that changed?

在Meta上的投放已经变得太贵且太不稳定了。我们会和增长团队交流，他们说周日没效果的东西周四却有效。它可以成为数字获客的有效组成部分。所以我并不反对——我房间里可没有反对马克·扎克伯格的海报什么的。但我从很多企业学到的是，我们需要采取更全面的漏斗策略。

Spending on Meta has become too expensive and too erratic. We'll talk to growth people saying like something that didn't work on Sunday works on Thursday. And it can be effective part of digital acquisition. So I'm not anti I don't have anti Mark Zuckerberg posters in my room or anything. But a lot of businesses I've learned, it's like we have to have more of a full funnel approach.

消费者并非把所有时间都花在谷歌和脸书上。她会出门活动。这正是我们观察到的现象。比如Shopify希望让所有人上网销售，他们的大部分营销活动都是在线下进行的。我们很多企业也和他们合作过快闪店。

The consumer isn't spending all her time on Google and Facebook. She's out. And that's what we're seeing. I mean, Shopify who wants to get everyone on the internet and selling, most of their marketing efforts are doing things IRL. And a number of our businesses have done pop ups with that.

通过大量互动来推动业务。因此电商并不只是数字世界。我不想说全渠道，但那种能获取数据、从TikTok等平台引流消费者的电商体验确实存在。毫无疑问，电商绝对是当下热门，是企业整体业务的一部分。

A lot of engagement to drive it. So e comm isn't just digital only world. I don't want say omni channel, but that consumer experience and e comm where you actually get data and a lot of people flowing from TikTok and other means. E comm is definitely in vogue, without a doubt, is a part of the overall business. Right.

那么这个时代真正蓬勃发展的初创企业类型是怎样的？根据你在报道中提到的，似乎单笔交易金额可能较小，但这或许正是饮料公司等能获得风投青睐的核心原因？

And what about the types of startups that are really proliferating during this era? I mean, you know, if I think about it, and this is one of the things you mentioned in the story, it seems like the purchase sizes are maybe a little bit smaller, but maybe that might be core to the reason why beverage companies, for example, are getting so much attention from venture capitalists.

没错。从宏观角度看，一罐两三美元的益生元苏打水可能比可乐贵，但比89美元的羊绒毛衣或129美元的跑鞋便宜得多。很多创始人非常聪明地聚焦于这些易耗品类别，避开大额消费领域。这既顺应了消费趋势，也意识到周复一周、月复一月的回头客比偶尔消费更容易建立可持续业务。

Yeah, exactly. I think, you know, if you think about it in the grand scheme of things, a, you know, two or three dollars can of prebiotic soda is maybe expensive compared to a can of Coca Cola, but it's a lot cheaper than a $89 cashmere sweater or a $129 pair of running shoes. So I think you've seen a lot of founders really smartly focus on these more consumable categories and move away from these bigger ticket purchases. And so I think part of that has been kind of following where the consumer is going, but also realizing that it's much easier to build a business when you do have customers coming back every week or every month to make a versus, you know, just every once in a while.

迈克，最后想请教这如何影响你作为风投的工作。我们讨论了电商的静默复兴，当前环境下deal竞争格局有何变化？是否看到更多风投回归这个领域？

Right. Mike, I want to end with you here, and I want to focus on how it has affected your life as a venture capitalist. We've talked about the quiet revival of ecommerce. How are you seeing competition for these deals change in this environment? You know, are you seeing a lot more VCs coming back to the space?

交易竞争是否变得更激烈？你观察到哪些现象？

Are you seeing deals become more competitive? What what what are you seeing?

确实。很多风投可以说撤离了这个领域，从加密货币转向人工智能。因此基金间的竞争压力没有显著增加。家族办公室正在介入。有趣的是，我们看到很多消费品牌兴起于俄克拉荷马州伊尼德、威斯康星州麦迪逊、明尼阿波利斯等地。

Yeah. A lot of venture capitalists kind of like got out of dodge, so to speak, and went from crypto to AI on that seventh. So competition hasn't gone up as much across other funds. Family offices are stepping in others. The interesting thing is we're seeing a lot of consumer businesses start up in Enid, Oklahoma, Madison, Wisconsin, Minneapolis.

所以并不全是纽约、纽约、旧金山这样的地方。要知道，这个国家有3.4亿美国人，其中大多数人并不住在我们三个现在所在的地方。没错。就像疫情期间人们搬回家乡，再加上《鲨鱼坦克》作为美国的游戏节目。

So it's all not New York, New York, San Francisco. Like, there's 340,000,000 Americans in this this country, and most of them don't live where three of us are right now. Right. It's like between the pandemic and people moving back home and listen. Shark Tank being America's game show.

创业很酷。

Entrepreneurship is cool.

但是

So But

但是但是让我们回到这些企业的单位经济效益。我的意思是，是什么让你相信这些企业会比疫情期间兴起或获得关注的那些电商企业更持久？我们看到很多这样的企业上市了，但它们的业务却无法按预期规模扩张。这批企业在经济上有何不同？

but but let let let's go back to the unit economics of of these businesses. I mean, what gives you confidence that these businesses are going to last longer than some of those e commerce businesses that started or got traction back during the pandemic? I mean, we've seen a lot of those businesses go public and their businesses haven't been able to scale the way they thought. What's different about this crop economically?

不，稍微呼应一下安妮说的，我们看到更聪明的创业者，他们似乎从过去五六年的错误中吸取了教训。我们看到企业更注重强大的毛利率和重复购买。所以现在，DTC的客户获取成本，就像 acquisition dollars 一路攀升，这就像漏桶一样。获取客户，留住客户。而不是像我们谈到的饮料那样采用代发货模式——在电商中代发货可能重达20磅且需要冷藏的饮料相当困难。

No, pairing off a little bit of what Anne said, it's like we're seeing smarter entrepreneurs that have, like, learned from the past mistakes of the past five or six years. We're seeing businesses focus on stronger gross margins, repeat purchases. So now, like, the DTC CAC, like, acquisition dollars and go up to the right, it's like leaky buckets. Get a customer, keep the customer. And instead of drop ship like we talked about beverages, kinda hard to drop ship beverages in e com that might weigh 20 pounds and need cold refrigeration.

所以我们看到电商在更明智的非易腐品类如维生素和补充剂中布局。但单位经济效益绝对是可行的，企业就在那里。只是不幸的是，Meta时代的类固醇效应，我觉得那几年是个不好的名称，但我们回来了。我们真的回来了。

So we're seeing e comm plants in smarter areas of non perishable vitamins and supplements in that. But the unit economics are absolutely viable businesses are there. It's just, unfortunately, steroid effect of the meta era, I think that's a bad name for for a few years, but we're back. We are back.

我们回来了。Bullish Bullish想让大家知道我们回来了。我觉得这是个很好的结束点。安妮和迈克，非常感谢你们来参加节目。这是个令人兴奋的话题。

We're back. Bullish Bullish wants you to know that we are back. I think that's a great place to leave it. Anne and Mike, thank you so much for coming on the show. It's an exciting topic.

就像我总是对安妮说的那样，读她的故事总是一种享受，因为这些品牌我们只需去本地杂货店就能实际使用。而且这些名字里也没有基础设施和编码代理这样的词汇，更接地气一些。感谢两位的到来，这里是TI TV的迈克和安妮。

And like I like I always tell Anne, I mean, it is it's always a treat to to read her stories because these are brands that we can actually use just by going to our local grocery store. And it's also names that don't have the the words infrastructure and coding agents in them. It's a little more down to earth. Thank you to the both of for coming on. That is Mike and Anne here on TI TV.

好了，今天的节目就到这里。提醒大家，我们的直播时间是太平洋时间周一至周五上午10点，东部时间下午1点。我要感谢亚马逊网络服务，他们是本节目的主要赞助商。同时感谢各位的收看，我们非常珍惜您的观看。

Well, that does it for today's show. A reminder that we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern. I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production. And I want to thank you for tuning in. We really do appreciate your viewership.

我已经对下周一的节目充满期待了。那么在那之前，祝大家周末愉快，暂时再见啦。

I am already excited for our next show on Monday. And so until then, have a great weekend. Bye bye for now.