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欢迎大家收看Information的TITV节目。
Welcome, everyone, to the Information's TITV.
我是Akash Pasricha。
My name is Akash Pasricha.
今天是8月13日,星期四。
It is Thursday, August 13.
今天节目里,Robinhood的首席财务官将在纽约证券交易所和我们一起聊聊他们新推出的公开交易风险投资基金。
Today on the show, Robinhood CFO joins us from the New York Stock Exchange to discuss their new publicly traded venture fund vehicle.
接着我们会深入探讨为什么Neocloud旗下的CoreWeave和Nebius在最新财报发布后股价大涨,以及这些数字对AI基础设施意味着什么。
We'll then dive into why Neocloud's CoreWeave and Nebius are surging following their latest earning results and what the numbers signal for AI infrastructure.
我们还会看看WRITER推出的新AI模型,它旨在降低运行智能体的成本。
We'll also take a look at how a new AI model from WRITER is designed to cut the cost of running agents.
最后,我们的AI和机器人记者Rocket Drew会聊聊Neolabs如何应对算力紧张的问题。
And to close out the show, our AI and robotics reporter, Rocket Drew, will share a bit about how Neolabs are dealing with the compute crunch.
今天的节目会很精彩,我们马上开始吧。
It's going to be a great show, so let's get right on into it.
Robinhood今天在纽约证券交易所推出了他们的第二只公开交易的创投基金。
Robinhood is debuting its second publicly traded venture fund vehicle today on the New York Stock Exchange.
我想请首席财务官Shiv Verma来聊聊这只基金背后的考量,以及公司最近的业绩。
I want to bring on CFO Shiv Verma to talk about the calculus behind this fund and also the company's recent results.
Shiv,欢迎再次来到我们的节目。
Shiv, welcome back to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
Neol,谢谢你的邀请。
Neol, thanks for having me.
非常高兴能再次回来。
Very excited to be back.
那我们来聊聊你们推出的这第二只创投基金吧。
So let's talk about this second venture fund here you guys are debuting.
第一只基金里有一些大牌公司,比如Databricks、OpenAI、Merkur和RAMP。
The first one had some big names in it, Databricks, OpenAI, Merkur, and RAMP.
那这第二个基金里现在都有什么?
What is in this second fund now?
对,当然。
Yeah, absolutely.
第一个基金主要关注的是后期成长型公司。
So the first fund was focused on late stage growth companies.
你提到的很多公司都是这类。
Many of them you mentioned.
我们从客户那里听到的是,他们其实想接触早期阶段的公司。
What we heard from customers is they actually want exposure to early stage companies.
所以这个基金做的就是,和全球最大的孵化器之一YCC合作,专注于早期阶段。
So what this foot does is it focuses on early stage in partnership with YCC, one of the biggest incubators in the world.
所以我们通过和第一个基金类似的工具,让大家有机会接触到一种新的资产类别。
And so we're giving access to a new asset class using someone of the same vehicles as the first foot.
现在我想聊聊这个基金的结构,因为这些公司规模都比较小。
Now I wanna get into the structure of the fund because these are smaller companies.
有一件事让我很注意,就是这里好像有20%的业绩费,第一个基金里没有这个。
One thing that stood out to me looks like there's a performance fee on there, 20%, which it didn't have in the first fund.
跟我讲讲你们为什么决定加这个。
Walk me through the decision to add that.
好问题。
Yeah, great question.
传统的风险投资通常都有管理费和业绩费。
So traditional venture has a management fee and a performance fee.
因为这个基金更接近传统的风险投资,所以我们觉得也应该有业绩费。
Given this fund is much more similar to a traditional venture, we thought it'd be important to have that as well.
但重要的是,业绩费只在实际收益上收取。
Now it's really important to remember the performance fee only is charged on realized gains.
所以如果我们投中了下一个Airbnb、Stripe、DoorDash之类的公司,并且这个公司在这个基金里实现了流动性事件,那我们才会收这个费用。
So if we have the next Airbnb, Stripe, DoorDash, etcetera, and that comes into this fund and has a liquidity event, then we will charge the fee.
所以我们采用了风险投资的模式,但我们现在提供每日流动性。
And so we took the venture model, and now we have daily liquidity.
你不需要是合格投资者。
You don't need to be accredited.
所以我们认为这只基金比传统风投更好。
And so we think this is a better fund than traditional venture.
那
How
考虑到这些公司规模小得多,你们是怎么计算这只基金的资产净值的?
do you go about calculating the net asset value for this fund given that the companies are so much smaller?
我是说,这些公司,你知道,我们说的是创业公司。
I mean, y c companies, you know, this is the startup world we're talking about here.
有时候很难给它们估值。
So it's hard to put a value on them sometimes.
那你们具体是怎么操作的?
So how do you how do you mechanically do that?
对。
Yeah.
问得好。
Great question.
我们投资的每个基金通常都是通过SAFE来进行的。
So every fund that we invest in is typically done through a SAFE.
SAFE是针对早期创业公司的。
So SAFE are done for early stage companies.
这意味着估值要等到公司未来融资时才能确定。
This means the valuation is not set until the company raises at a future round.
我们还会设定一个上限,这样如果他们估值很高,我们的投资者就能获得更好的回报。
We also put a cap on it so that if they rage at a large valuation, our investors get better.
我们有一个独立的估值委员会,会审查每一家公司,然后还有第三方估值服务来帮忙估值。
We have an independent valuation committee that looks at every single company, and then we have a third party valuation service that helps value them.
所以我们尽力确保客户得到的是实际的净资产值。
And so we do our best to make sure that customers are getting actual NABs.
我们每个季度都会报告,而且是在SEC注册的。
We then report every quarter, it's SEC registered.
所以即使这些是早期公司,也有一个非常严谨的流程来尝试给它们估值。
So even though these are early stage companies, there's a very deliberate process to try to value them.
那你们最终在这些小公司里会占多少股份呢?
And how much ownership do you end up taking in these small companies then?
是的,这是个好问题。
Yeah, it's a great question.
通常来说,我们可能持有0.5%到1%的股份。
So typically, we might have half a percent to 1% ownership.
对于早期公司来说,这其实已经相当可观了。
And so for an early stage company, that's actually quite large.
想想那些从Y Combinator出来的公司,比如DoorDash、Stripe或者Airbnb,它们上市时市值能达到几十亿甚至几百亿。
If you think about companies that have come out of Y Combinator, such as DoorDash or Stripe or Airbnb, they can go public in the billions or tens of billions of volume value.
所以很早就拿到股份,真的非常有力。
So getting a ownership stake very early on is is really powerful.
这些公司都是AI公司吗?还是给我们举几个例子?
Is it all AI companies or give us some of the names here?
所以公司投资组合是多样化的。
So the company's a mix of different portfolios.
其中有一些是AI公司。
So it is some AI companies.
我们也会发布一些信息或观点。
We put out some, information or perspectives.
大约50%的公司专注于AI或AI基础设施。
It's about 50% are focused on AI or in AI infrastructure.
还有一些公司做的是真正的硬科技,也就是制造实体产品。
There's also companies doing real hard tech, so building physical things.
有金融科技公司,也有医疗健康公司。
There's fintech companies, there's healthcare companies.
所以覆盖面很广。
So it kinda spreads the wide gamut.
对我们来说,我们只是在每一批项目中寻找最好的公司。
And for us, we're just trying to look for the the best companies in each individual batch.
太好了。
Great.
那么,Shiv,这是一个令人兴奋的基金,我想祝贺你它的首次亮相。
Well, Shiv, it's an exciting fund, and I wanna congratulate you on the debut of it.
等你们宣布第三只基金的时候,我们会再请你回来。
We'll have you back on when you guys are announcing the third fund whenever that's coming.
这里是TITV,刚才的是Robinhood的首席财务官Shiv Verma。
That is Shiv Verma, the CFO of Robinhood here on TITV.
CoreWeave和Nebius的业务都在蓬勃发展。
CoreWeave and Nebius' businesses are both booming.
CoreWeave本季度的收入比去年翻了一倍多。
CoreWeave revenue more than doubled in the quarter from last year.
Nebius的收入增长了五倍以上。
Nebius revenue is up more than fivefold.
关于这些业绩,我想请来Jefferies的高级分析师Brent Thill。
For more on those results, I want to bring on Brent Thill, senior analyst at Jefferies.
Brent,欢迎回到节目。
Brent, welcome back to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
谢谢邀请。
Thanks for having me.
好的。
Okay.
那我们先从CoreWeave开始吧。
So CoreWeave, let's start there.
他们的业绩有什么让你印象深刻的?
What stood out to you about their results?
CoreWeave的需求依然非常强劲。
CoreWeave continues to see massive demand.
需求已经超过了供应。
The demand is outstripping supply.
像微软、亚马逊、谷歌,大多数超大规模云服务商都说客户在拼命要求增加供应。
Like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, most of the hyperscalers have been saying that customers are screaming for more demand.
所以,华尔街说AI已经完了这种说法,其实挺可笑的。
So this concept that we're we're done with AI is kinda silly in terms of what Wall Street's been saying.
需求环境依然非常强劲。
The the the demand environment remains incredible.
CoreWeave说他们基本上已经卖光了。
CoreWeave says they're basically sold out.
我觉得最突出的是,他们正在缩短合同期限。
And I think what what really stood out is they're shortening their contract durations.
这些合同上他们看到了更好的单位经济性,因为他们能提高价格。
They're seeing better unit economics on these contracts because they're able to raise price.
而且他们提价的时候,客户并没有反对。
And as they raise price, customers aren't pushing back.
客户反而说,我们还要更多。
They're saying, we'll take more.
所以利润率在上升。
So margins are going higher.
而且我觉得,Dawn,华尔街之前有个担忧,就是他们可能赚不到钱,可能只是收入增长,但利润上不去。
And I think, Dawn, there was a fear that Wall Street had that they were not going to be able to make money, that this would just be a top line revenue acceleration with no bottom line profit.
但CoreWeave告诉你的恰恰相反。
And what CoreWeave is telling you is that's that's exactly the opposite.
你看到的是收入在加速增长。
You're seeing accelerating revenue.
利润率也很不错。
You're seeing good margins.
其他所有超大规模云服务商也都是这样。
And we saw that across all the other hyperscalers.
微软、亚马逊和谷歌都实现了更快的增长和更高的运营利润率。
Microsoft, Amazon, and Google saw accelerating growth and higher operating margins.
所以我觉得在这个AI时代,我们看到的,就是那种担心,嘿。
So I think what we're seeing in this age of AI that on the fear of, hey.
这真的很贵。
It's really expensive.
你永远赚不到钱。
You'll never make money.
我觉得四大巨头刚刚告诉你这不是真的,增长和利润是可以兼得的。
I think that the the big four just told you that it's not true, that you can have growth and profits together.
我觉得CoreWeave另一个有趣的地方是,他们的需求正在扩大。
I think the other thing that's interesting for CoreWeave is that, they're seeing broadening demand.
不只是来自那些超大规模云服务商。
It's not just coming from the hyperscalers.
显然,他们为Meta建设。
Obviously, they build for Meta.
他们为微软建设。
They build for Microsoft.
但他们实际上开始看到像卡特彼勒这样的其他客户,以及一些较小的公司也来建设。
But they're actually starting to see, other customers like Caterpillar and, other smaller companies come in and build.
他们建立了一个按需推理的业务,基本上你可以直接通过他们按需启动推理服务。
They built a on demand inference business where you can just basically turn up inference through them on demand.
这个业务是新的。
That business is new.
它正在蓬勃发展。
It's booming.
他们在这方面的需求非常旺盛。
They're seeing great demand on that side.
所以没错。
So Right.
总的来说,你知道,数字真的很好,预期也很好。
Overall, you know, really good numbers, good expectations.
华尔街之前的态度确实非常消极。
Wall Street's view was was really negative going in.
你怎么看……我知道你并不覆盖Nebius,所以我不会特别问你关于那些业绩的问题。
How do you I I I know I don't think you cover Nebius, so I won't ask you specifically about those results.
你怎么比较这两家公司?
How do you compare and contrast these two companies?
我是说,Nebius的营收比上季度增长了450%,我记得是这样。
I mean, Nebius, their results revenue was up 450%, I think it was, compared to last quarter.
看起来他们在盈利指标等方面还处于更早期的阶段。
They are a bit earlier, it looks like, in their build in terms of their profitability metrics, stuff like that.
我是说,你怎么对比这两家公司?
I mean, how do you compare and contrast these two companies?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得,现在CoreWeave会说,他们是在为全球最顶尖的公司建设,不是说其他竞争对手不好,但他们的观点是,他们是在为最大的那些客户服务。
I mean, I I think right now what CoreWeave will say is that they're bringing they're building for the best companies on the planet, planet and and nothing against, the other competitors, but their view is that we're building for the the biggest of the big.
所以,从他们的角度来看,打个比方,他们造的是约翰迪尔拖拉机,而其他人造的是割草机和除草机,面向大众市场。
And so, the analogy what would would be from their perspective is they built the John Deere tractor, and and others are building weed whippers and lawnmowers, for for the for the mass market.
这没什么不对的。
So nothing wrong with that.
只是方法不同而已。
Just a different, approach.
记住,CoreWeave服务并支持着世界上一些最复杂的企业,比如Meta、微软、谷歌。
Remember, CoreWeave serves and powers some of the most sophisticated enterprises in the world, Meta, Microsoft, Google.
我可以列一下名单。
I'll go through the list.
他们网站上还列出了其他一些他们支持的公司。
There's a handful of others that are on their web page of companies that they power.
所以他们一直与少数几家非常大的客户绑定在一起。
So they have been tied to a smaller number of very, very large customers.
所以,我觉得,你知道,有不同的策略,显然我们看到的是有多个供应商的空间,对吧?
And so, I think, you know, there's different strategies, and obviously, what we're seeing is there's room for multiple vendors, right?
你也看到甲骨文进入了这个市场。
You've seen Oracle get into this market
对。
Right.
还帮助了OpenAI。
And help the OpenAI.
你也看到很多其他公司采取了不同的策略。
You've seen many others take different approaches.
我觉得我们看到的是,这些策略大多都在奏效,因为需求环境太好了,而且供应根本跟不上。
I think what we're seeing is the all most of these approaches are working because the demand environment's so good, and there is no there is no supply.
那我们就来谈谈那个大问题吧。
So So let's get I mean, let's get to the big question then.
现在需求确实很大。
I mean, the demand is great right now.
供应却很少。
Supply is low.
这对Neocloud来说都是好消息,尤其是在定价方面。
It's all great news for the Neocloud, certainly in terms of pricing.
你觉得这些公司的这种增长能持续多久?
How sustainable do you think this growth will be for their companies?
目前来看,我们并没有看到任何放缓的迹象。
Right now, we're seeing no slowdown.
所有供应商的资本支出都在全面增加。
CapEx goes higher for all the vendors across the board.
我们看到需求回升的模式一直很稳定。
We're seeing consistent patterns of of the pickup in demand.
看看企业级AI的部署,其实规模还很小。
When you look at enterprise AI deployments, it's tiny.
比如,大型企业里AI代理的部署数量还是个位数。
Like, we're talking like single digit agent deployment at large enterprises.
对吧?
Right?
科技公司们,你知道,都在笑。
The tech companies, you know, all laugh.
他们觉得,你这是什么意思?
They're like, what do you mean?
我们到处都在用AI。
We AI's everywhere.
比如说,你走进一家大银行、保险公司或者大型航空公司。
Well, like, you go into a big bank, an insurance company, a big airline.
我的意思是,他们在AI部署上只是刚刚起步。
I mean, like, they've scratched the surface in AI deployment.
而且我觉得我们反复说过,跟踪科技行业二十五年,从来没有哪个董事会讨论过Web 3、比特币,或者向云计算的迁移,他们都没提过。
And I think what we've said repeatedly is that having followed tech for twenty five years, there's no boards that ever talked about Web three, Bitcoin, you know, the move to cloud, that none of them talked about it.
现在他们全都在谈论AI。
They're all talking about AI.
从金融服务到医疗保健,你到处看看,都是这样。
From financial services to healthcare, you know, you go across the board.
所以我觉得我们正处于部署的早期阶段。
So I think we're in early stage of deployment.
记住,这个过程是缓慢的。
Remember, this is glacial.
这不是一夜之间就能发生的。
It doesn't happen overnight.
那些受监管的大型企业不能直接跳进AI的池子里。
Big, big enterprises that are regulated can't just jump in and cannibal into the AI pool.
他们进展得非常缓慢。
They do it very slowly.
而且,我们今天看到的需求,基本上只是试探性地迈出一小步,这已经表明这种趋势会持续好几年。
And because the demand we're seeing today, basically on putting one toe into the water, this gives you a signal that it's gonna be sustainable for multiple years.
那么,我们现在是不是处于泡沫之中?
Now, are we in a bubble?
未来三到五年,我们会不会过度建设?
Are we gonna overbuild three, four, five years out?
我觉得这才是争论的焦点。
I think that's the debate.
现在谁也看不清楚,因为目前所有东西都卖光了。
No one can see that yet because we right now, everything sells out.
价格还在往上涨。
Prices are going higher.
客户看到了投资回报。
Customers are seeing there's an ROI.
我们看到积压订单创下历史新高,远远超过了投入的资本支出。
We're seeing backlog and record highs far exceeding the CapEx dollars that are going in.
所以当收入超过资本支出时,你怎么能说这是泡沫呢?
So when you have revenue that's exceeding the CapEx dollars, how how do you say it's a bubble?
而且,当美敦力的CEO说医生下午眼睛疲劳,从不做检查时,你怎么能说这是泡沫?
And how do you say it's a bubble when you have the CEO of Medtronic saying doctor's eyes get tired in the afternoon, never get a checkup.
AI永远不会累。
AI never gets tired.
它会拯救生命。
It's gonna save lives.
航空公司在天空中拯救生命。
Aviation companies saving lives in the sky.
金融服务公司让他们的金融代理更高效。
Financial services firms making their financial agents more productive.
对。
Right.
目前还没有任何信号。
Let's Like no signals yet.
所以如果出现了产能过剩,而这些新云公司会成为核心,那你主要看哪些数据来寻找担忧的迹象呢?
So if there is overcapacity that is built and these Neo Cloud companies would be at the center of it, I mean, what numbers do you look at in terms of looking for signs of concern?
我的意思是,是不是运营成本开始比……好吧,我在这里停顿一下,因为现在盈利能力不是首要任务。
I mean, is this operating costs starting to rise faster than well, I mean, I'm pausing here because right now, profitability is not the priority here.
但具体你会看哪些指标来判断,嘿,产能过剩开始成为人们的问题了?
But what metrics specifically do you look at to say, hey, overcapacity is starting to be an issue for people?
想想看,当你看到这个,你说价格在下降,全年我们听到第一季度、第二季度到第三季度的价格都在下降。
Think when you look at this and you say pricing goes lower, all year, we've heard pricing from q one, q two into q three.
现在价格在上涨。
Now pricing's going higher.
对吧?
Right?
那价格是在暴跌吗?
So is pricing falling out of the sky?
不是。
No.
是在上涨。
It's rising.
需求情况怎么样?
How's the demand picture?
也在上涨。
It's rising.
从营收增长加速来看,你看到了什么?不仅仅是Neolabs,还有亚马逊、谷歌、微软、甲骨文。
What are you seeing in terms of revenue growth acceleration, not not just for the Neolabs, but for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Oracle.
它们都在加速增长。
They're all accelerating.
你看看实际收入进账和支出之间的差距。
You look at the actual split between revenue intake and dollar spent.
这种情况我们反复见过。
We've seen this repeatedly.
这个差距大得离谱,简直可以开辆大卡车横着穿过去。
There's a huge you can you can drive a semi, you know, sideways through this.
根本不在一个量级上。
It's not close.
所以我们现在认为,这些信号表明,如果收入超过了建设成本,作为财务分析师,我们看到的是回报不错。
So we think right now, those are the signals, which are if your revenue is exceeding that of the cost to build, as a financial analyst, what we're seeing is there's a good return.
而且每家公司都展示了运营利润率的改善。
And every single company has showed you improving operating margin.
当这种情况开始停滞,当需求增长停滞,当你进入企业市场,开始推广企业AI,然后大家都说这不行,这简直是笑话,是骗人的把戏,这些智能体该干活的时候却在打高尔夫,到时候又会出现失控的智能体。
When that starts to stall, when the demand picture stalls, when you get into the enterprise and you start rolling on enterprise AI and everyone's like, this is this isn't working or this is a joke and this is hocus pocus and these agents are off, you know, playing golf when they should be at work, again, we're gonna have rogue agents.
那时候我们就要开始担心了。
Then we start to concern to concern.
我们目前没有看到任何这样的迹象。
We don't have any signals of that.
对。
Right.
最后一个问题,Brent。
Last question for you, Brent.
有没有迹象表明CoreWeave近期会减少对NVIDIA的依赖?
Any sign that CoreWeave is gonna diversify away from NVIDIA in the near future?
你有什么预期吗?
Any expectation from you?
我觉得他们没有理由把自己的小船从豪华游艇上解下来。
I don't think that they have any incentive to disconnect their their rowboat from their massive luxury yacht.
现在完全没有理由分开。
Zero zero reason to disconnect at this point.
不过话虽如此,你知道,还有其他船也在靠近呢。
But but, I mean, that being said, I mean, there's, you know, there's other boats on the horizon too.
对吧?
Right?
他们正在……我是说,不是吗?
They're get I mean, no?
我觉得
I think
我觉得CoreWeave说过他们是中立的。
what I think what CoreWeave has said is they're agnostic.
比如,他们在大家讨论Kimmy之前就发布了关于Kimmy的新闻稿。
Like, they put a press release out about Kimmy, you know, before anyone's talking about Kimmy.
他们接受所有模型。
Like, they they embrace all models.
他们接受所有半导体基础设施、所有硬件、所有液冷,无论你想在哪里建。
They'll embrace all all semi infrastructure, all hardware, all liquid cooling, wherever you want to build.
他们对自己的数据中心也持开放态度。
They're open to their own data center.
他们会和其他拥有自己数据中心的人合作。
They're going to they're going part with other people that have their own data centers.
他们是开放的。
They're open.
我觉得他们采取的是中立的态度。
And I think they're taking an agnostic view.
这就是纳德拉在微软做Azure时的做法,你知道的。
And this is what Nadella did at Microsoft, you know, when they started Azure.
保持中立的态度。
Have an agnostic view.
和所有人合作。
Work with everyone.
不要只说我们只用一种钉子来盖房子。
Don't don't just say we're only working with one nail to build a house.
你需要多种钉子。
You wanna have multiple nails.
所以,不,我没看到什么真正的变化。
So, no, I I don't I don't see a real change.
我觉得他们的看法是对的,就是拥抱所有人。
I think their view is the right view, which is embrace everyone.
但是,你想不想跟黄仁勋的游艇绑在一起?
But like, do you want to be tied to Jensen's yacht?
我愿意。
I would.
就是说,没有理由断开联系。
Like, no reason to disconnect.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
好。
Great.
好的,Brent,感谢你来做客。
Well, Brent, I want to thank you for coming on.
这位是Jefferies的高级分析师Brent Thill,欢迎来到TITV。
That is Brent Thill, senior analyst at Jefferies, here on TITV.
Rider,一家专注于企业AI营销和销售的公司,今天发布了新的旗舰模型,名为Palmyra X6。
Rider, an enterprise focused AI marketing and sales company, released a new flagship model today entitled Palmyra X6.
它还对其软件进行了升级,并表示这将使平台对客户来说更便宜。
It also made upgrades to its software, it says, will make the platform cheaper for its customers.
为了详细解读这些,我想请来WRITER的首席执行官May Habib。
To break that all down, I want to bring on May Habib, CEO of WRITER.
May,欢迎再次来到节目。
May, welcome back to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
嘿,Akash。
Hey, Akash.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
那么,Palmyra X6,我一会儿让你来解释这个名字,但先跟我们说说发布这个新模型的理由,以及它有什么不同之处。
So, Palmyra X6, I'll let you explain the name in a minute here, but tell us about the rationale here to release this new model and what's different about it.
对。
Yeah.
现在任何在企业界工作的人都知道,成本效益和数据主权是大家最关心的问题。
Anybody who's spending time with the enterprise these days knows that cost efficiency along with sovereignty is just the number one issue for folks now.
我认为,企业在采用或未采用某些技术方面的情况,确实向市场表明,企业愿意在AI上花费的金额有了新的上限。
I think the adoption of, and maybe lack thereof, of fable in the enterprise is really showing the market that we've got a new upper bound for how much businesses are willing to spend on AI.
而且大家真的不希望随着采用率的提高,支出也爆炸式增长。
And folks just do not want to have spend explode, right, as adoption does.
他们真的厌倦了追逐那些前沿基准和前沿价格。
And they're really tired of chasing these frontier benchmarks, frontier prices.
他们想要的是能够可靠地大规模完成他们关心的工作的模型。
They want models that can do the work that they care about reliably at scale.
这正是我们开发X6的初衷,也是我们构建它的方式以及围绕它打造的配套工具的原因。
And that's really what motivated X6, how we built it, and the harness that we built around it.
而且我觉得,我们真的看到了专用模型在性能和成本上给企业带来的优势,这正是他们所需要的。
And I think, you know, we're really seeing purpose built, giving that performance advantage and that cost advantage that enterprises are looking for.
它是在5.2 GLM上训练的,对吗?
And it's trained on 5.2, GLM, is that right?
是的。
Yep.
你知道,我们是第一家真正从零开始训练模型的应用型AI公司,对吧?
You know, we are the first of the applied AI companies that were really training our models from scratch, right?
我们花了好几年时间做这件事,现在也还在继续。
We spent years doing that, we're still doing that.
但这也意味着我们明白,预训练并不是应用型AI创造价值的唯一环节。
But it also means we know that pre training isn't the only place where value is created in applied AI.
我们在针对特定任务的环境上做的后训练,加上在配套工具上的投入,真正为关系管理和营销等使用场景量身打造了解决方案。
And the post training that we've done on task specific environments alongside the investment in the harness really built for relationship management use cases, marketing use cases.
这真的实现了大家想要的三重效果,对吧?
It's really just delivered this trifecta that folks want, right?
更便宜、更快、更好。
Cheaper, faster, better.
成本降低52%,任务几秒钟就能完成。
52% lower cost, tasks completing in seconds.
我们的智能体可以连续运行八小时甚至更久。
We've got agents that can run for eight hours or longer.
那这些结果是怎么通过模型实现的呢?
And how get those do results with the model?
给我讲讲这里面的具体机制吧。
Walk me through the mechanics here.
好的。
Yeah.
所以,我们要真正思考的是,一个完整的框架里应该包含什么,对吧?
So, the ability for us to really think about what goes into a harness, right?
模型是怎么获取上下文的?
How does the model pull context?
它怎么使用公司数据?
How does it use company data?
它怎么利用上下文窗口?
How does it use its context window?
它怎么在工具之间进行交接?
How does it manage handoffs, right, among tools?
它怎么应用安全护栏?
How does it apply guardrails?
你知道,一个完整的框架其实涵盖所有这些,甚至更多。
You know, a harness is really all of those things and more.
它怎么做质量检查?
How it does QA, right?
它怎么生成子代理,又怎么验证这些子代理的工作?
How it spawns sub agents, how it checks those sub agents work.
而且,当你像我们一样,真的在多年理解客户如何在我们的专业领域使用AgenTeq AI的基础上,对吧?
And when you, like us, really sit on top of years of understanding how customers want to use AgenTeq AI in the domain that we focus on, right?
销售和市场营销。
Sales and marketing.
这真的能给你带来巨大的优势,让你能够真正构建那个模型,构建那个框架。
It just gives you a tremendous leg up in being able to really build that model, build that harness.
这个框架本身实际上是模型无关的。
The harness itself is actually model agnostic.
我们构建它时就是让它模型无关的,我们的平台也是模型无关的。
We had built it to be model agnostic, and our platform is model agnostic.
但当然,和我们的模型配合效果最好。
But of course, works best with our model.
而且,模型和框架一起,在WRITER平台上效果最佳。
And the model and the harness together work best with the WRITER platform.
那么,GLM 5.2,这是来自中国的一个模型,关于人们是否对使用海外模型有所顾虑,是否想留在美国,一直有很多讨论。
Now, so, GLM 5.2, that's one of the models that comes out of China, and there's been a whole discussion around whether or not people have hesitation using models from overseas, whether they want to stay here in The US.
你自己有没有过这种犹豫?
Did you have any of that hesitation yourself?
我觉得市场在这方面已经发生了很大的变化,企业对这件事的理解也变了,对吧?
I think the market has really shifted on this, and enterprises' understanding of this has really shifted, right?
这是一个MIT许可的开源权重模型。
This is a MIT licensed open weights model.
这是目前最强的开源权重模型。
It's the strongest available open weight model.
权重、环境、后训练、框架,所有这些都是由一家美国公司在美国本土、美国基础设施上构建的。
And the weights, the environment, the post training, the harness, all of that built by a US company on US soil, on US infrastructure.
它运行在美国的基础设施上。
It's running on US infrastructure.
和原始开发者完全没有联系。
There's literally no connection to the original developers.
我觉得市场真的已经转向了。
Think the market has really turned.
这趟车已经开走了。
Ship has sailed on this.
我是说,现在没有哪家企业不在用这种方式使用开放权重模型。
I mean, there isn't a single enterprise that's not using open weight models in this way.
对。
Right.
那我们现在把话题转到开放权重模型的竞争上。这周早些时候,NVIDIA发布了他们最新的开放权重模型,或者说,是其中一个版本。
So now just shifting to the race in open weight models broadly, I mean, we had NVIDIA come out earlier this week with their latest open weight model, or a version of it, I should say.
Meta也重新加入了这场竞争,带着他们的开放权重模型。
Meta is also reentering the fray, I should say, with their open weight models.
你觉得哪家美国公司最有希望挑战中国的开放权重模型领先者?
Who do you think Which US company do you think has the best shot of challenging the open weight leaders in China?
因为这是大家都很好奇会怎么发展的竞争,对吧?
Because this is the race that everyone's curious to see how it plays out, right?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得,没有哪家应用型AI公司会放弃参与这场竞争的野心。
I mean, look, I think not a single applied AI company, right, is not absconding from its its ambition to be in this race as well.
我认为未来几个月,我们很可能会看到企业级市场的竞争重新拉开帷幕。
I think what we are likely to see over the next few months is a real reopening of the enterprise race.
这场竞争远未结束。
It is by no means over.
我觉得,当你真正和CIO一对一交流时,对吧?
I think the enterprise, when you really get a CIO one on one, right?
他们对Anthropic的做法并不满意。
They're not happy with what Anthropic is trying to do.
他们对OpenAI给企业带来的东西也不满意。
They're not happy with what OpenAI is bringing to the enterprise.
我认为最终OpenAI是一家消费级AI公司,Anthropic是一家编码模型公司,而企业级市场实际上非常开放,赢家会非常多元化。
I think ultimately OpenAI is a consumer AI company, Anthropic is a coding model company, and the enterprise is actually really, really wide open and incredibly diverse in terms of the winners.
NVIDIA会赢,我们也会赢,应用型AI、原生AI公司都会赢。
NVIDIA is going be a winner, we're going to be a winner, The applied AI, native AI companies are going to win.
这是因为企业想要掌控权,对吧?
And it's because the enterprise wants control, right?
实验室正在构建
The labs are building
梅,你押注谁?
who's your money on, May?
我是说,有那么多令人兴奋的,你会押注谁去真正挑战中国的开源权重领导者?
I mean, there's so many exciting Who would you put your money on to really challenge the open weight leaders in China?
我觉得是美国。
I think it's The U.
的
S.
初创生态系统。
Startup ecosystem.
NVIDIA 在他们所做的事情上无疑是领导者。
NVIDIA is certainly a leader in what they're trying to do.
所以,可能是反思吧。
So, reflection maybe.
也许就是反思。
Maybe reflection.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这场竞赛还远未结束。
I think it's still a really wide open race here.
而且我认为,对于那些真正深入了解情况的人以及正在做采购决策的企业来说,权重的来源其实没那么重要,不管它们来自中国还是美国。
And I think the provenance of the weights matter a lot less, whether they come from China, whether they come from The US, to folks who are really in the weeds here and enterprises who are making these purchasing decisions.
我想问你一个问题——你刚才提到了OpenAI和Anthropic,昨天你在LinkedIn上发了一篇关于水印的帖子,很有意思。我想知道你能不能给我解释一下,你发那篇帖子想传达什么信息?关于这些玩家如何处理水印,以及这整体上反映了他们在内容和所有权方面的什么策略?
Let me ask you a question about So you talked about OpenAI and Anthropic, and you had an interesting post yesterday on LinkedIn about watermarking, and I wondered if you could explain to me what was the message you were trying to send with that post with respect to how some of these players are addressing watermarking, and then what that really says overall about their strategy around content and ownership and stuff like that.
好的。
Yeah.
这里的背景是,欧盟的《人工智能法案》已经生效了。
The context here is in the EU, the EU AI Act has gone into effect.
水印是他们要求企业做的事情之一。
Watermarking is one of the things that they ask companies to do.
而且这确实是客户的责任,要披露他们发布的内容是否由AI生成。
And it's really on the part of the customer to disclose when they've put out content that has been generated with AI.
但这又回到了那个关于一刀切AI的评论。
But this gets back the comment on one size fits all AI.
绝大多数使用AI开发内容的企业,他们做的事情远不止按一下按钮,然后发布Claude生成的内容。
Vast majority of enterprises using AI to develop content, they're doing a ton more than pressing a button and publishing what Claude spits out.
所以,我们支持对内容进行水印标记,保持透明度。
And so, we are pro transparency on watermarking content.
显然,我们会遵守法律,但把每一个AI辅助的输出都标记为某个模型生成,这给了模型太多的功劳。
Obviously, we're gonna be complying with the law, but labeling every AI assisted output as generated by X model gives the model way too much credit.
我们正在寻求一种解决方案,让企业能够真正识别AI在其中的角色。
And we're pursuing a solution that allows companies to really identify the role, right, that AI applied.
然后,这些来源信息将完全以他们自己的品牌呈现,并与AI所扮演的角色相匹配。
And then that provenance is going to be really under their own brand and commensurate with the role that AI played.
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所以,任何真正倾听企业需求的人,都会想出这样的解决方案。
So anyone who actually listens to the enterprise would have come up with a solution like this.
我觉得他们就是一直没搞懂企业想要什么,想要什么样的控制权。
And I think they're just continuing to show this really lack of understanding of what enterprises want, the level of control that they want.
那么,抱歉,那些大型AI实验室,他们在这个问题上的立场不一样吗?
And so, sorry, have the big AI labs, have they taken a different stance on this issue?
哦,对。
Oh, yeah.
我的意思是,这是一种随文本一起传播的水印。
I mean, this is a watermark that travels with the text.
所以,他们不仅把它用在视频上,也用在文本上。
So, they're applying it to text, not just to video.
而且这些水印是怎么开发的,人工干预多少会保留或去除水印,这些方面几乎没什么透明度。我们的做法跟他们完全不同,因为我们是和企业一起开发的。
And really very little transparency on how these watermarks are being developed, how little or how much human intervention retains the watermark or not, our approach is radically different than that because it's been co developed with enterprises themselves.
我明白了,May。
I'm putting all this together, May.
我们现在正处于这样一个时刻,过去几个月里,大型AI实验室因为他们在客户、内容和产品上的策略而受到了很大的反对。
I mean, we're sort of here in this moment here where there's been a couple months of significant pushback against the big AI labs insofar as how they've addressed some of their strategies here with their customers, with their content, with their products.
训练是一个大问题。
Training is a big concern.
听起来你是站在我们这边,想为他们提供给企业和客户的东西提供一个替代方案。
It sounds like you are in the camp here that we want to provide an alternative to they are offering businesses and customers.
你觉得这种情况会持续下去吗?毕竟你在科技圈待了这么久。
Do you think that this lasts I mean, you've been around tech long enough here.
我们可能以前也见过类似的竞争。
We've probably seen versions of this rivalry before.
你觉得他们最终会考虑到客户的顾虑吗?
Do you think they ultimately come around to customer considerations around this?
你觉得他们会屈服吗?
Do you think that they bend a knee?
你觉得他们会开始收购企业吗?
Do you think they just start buying businesses up?
你觉得这一切最终会怎么发展?
I mean, how do you think this all plays out ultimately?
我觉得企业对控制力的需求,跟那些实验室想做的广度,从根本上就是矛盾的,对吧?
I think the level of control enterprises want is fundamentally at odds with the breadth of what the labs are trying to do, right?
他们的商业模式根本不适合让客户随心所欲地微调整个技术栈的每一层。
It's just not befitting a business model like theirs to essentially allow customers to fine tune every level of this stack that they want.
最简单的例子,对吧?
The smallest example, right?
比如一个三十天的数据保留政策,而我们的客户连三十秒都不想让我们保留数据,对吧?
A Fable data retention policy of thirty days when our customers don't want us to retain data for thirty seconds, right?
我觉得,如果他们能做到的话,他们早就做了。
I think it's just like, you know, they'd be doing it if they could.
而且我不确定他们上市之后会不会改变。
And I don't know that that changes after they go public.
对。
Right.
梅,给我们更新一下业务情况吧。
Just give us the update on the business, May.
大概一年前我们请过你上节目。
We had you on about a year ago.
现在WRITER有多少人了?
How many people now does WRITER have?
收入怎么样?
How much revenue generating?
给我们说说最新进展吧。
Just give us the update.
好的。
Yeah.
自去年以来,增长确实非常惊人。
Just incredible growth certainly since last year.
我们刚结束了第二季度,各方面都创了纪录。
We just closed our second quarter, record quarter on every dimension.
我觉得最让我们兴奋的是,客户现在真的愿意投入和承诺了。
I think what we're very excited about is just how much customers are now really willing to invest and commit.
一年前,如果客户签了两年合同,我们都会庆祝一番。
A year ago, we'd celebrate if a customer signed a two year deal.
现在,我们大部分的新交易和续约都是多年期的。
Now the majority of our new deals and renewals are multi year.
大部分续约都是两到三年的。
Majority of the renewals are two and three years.
你知道,我们非常非常兴奋,因为很多企业都已经真正认识到,在底层拥有专门构建的平台有多重要,尤其是对于那些推动收入和增长的部门。
You know, very, very excited that so much of the enterprise has really come up the curve on understanding just how important it is to have purpose built platforms under the hood, especially for those functions that drive revenue and
那现在公司营收是多少?
more And so how much revenue is the company doing now?
对,我们还没有公开这个数字。
Yeah, I mean, haven't disclosed that.
这是一个很大的数字,很多公司都会为此发新闻稿,但我们已经在朝着下一个里程碑前进了。
It's a big round number that most companies kind of issue press releases about, but we are onto the next milestone.
一个亿。
A 100,
一个亿。
a 100.
也许是一个亿。
Maybe that means a 100.
不止这个数。
More than that.
也许你们正在融资。
Maybe you're fundraising.
等你们融资的时候,再回来告诉我们。
Come back on and tell us when you do.
好的,我想感谢你。在你提到模型名字之前,帕尔米拉这个名字有什么灵感来源吗?
May, I want to thank you for Oh, coming before you go to the name, Palmyra, what's the inspiration behind the name of the model?
是的。
Yeah.
那是叙利亚的一座古城。
It's an ancient city in Syria.
我和我的联合创始人都有黎凡特血统。
Both me and my co founder have Levantine roots.
那里长期由女性领袖统治,所以研究团队就选了帕尔米拉这个名字。
They had a female leader for a very long time, so the research team went with Palmyra.
太好了。
Great.
好的,感谢你今天的到来,这位是WRITER的首席执行官梅·哈比卜,在TITV接受采访。
Well, I want to thank you for coming on, That is May Habib, the CEO of WRITER here on TITV.
自己训练模型的人工智能初创公司,现在很难找到负担得起的云服务协议。
AI startups that train their own models are struggling to find cloud deals they can afford.
接下来我们连线The Information的AI和机器人记者Rocket Drew,请他带来更多相关报道。
Let's bring in Rocket Drew, AI and robotics reporter, for the information with more on that.
Rocket,欢迎回到节目。
Rocket, welcome back to the show.
很高兴你能来。
It's great to have you here.
嘿,阿卡什。
Hey, Akash.
很高兴来到这里。
Great to be here.
现在这个时代,谁想找算力都不容易。
So it's hard for anyone to find compute in this day and age.
根据你今天写的专栏,你认为对Neolabs来说尤其困难。
As per your column today, you are contending that it is extra hard for the Neolabs.
我们之前聊过Neolabs。
We were talking about Neoclabs before.
我们在这里讨论的是Neolabs找算力的事。
Were talking about Neolabs here for them to find compute.
这背后的故事是什么?
What is the story here?
对,我觉得确实更难。
Yeah, I think it is extra hard.
对于新实验室来说,你既要面对初创公司所有的挑战,又要追求成为大型AI公司的雄心。
For a Neolab, you're working with all of the challenges that come with being a startup, but you're targeting the ambitions of being a large AI company.
所以实际上,你需要大量的芯片。
So in practice, you need a lot of chips.
但和其他也在寻找芯片来运行现有AI模型的初创公司相比,你需要的是大量集中在一个地方的芯片,并且要长时间使用来训练自己的AI模型。
But compared to other startups that are also looking for chips to run existing AI models, you're looking for a large number of chips that are all located in one place that you can use for long periods of time to train your own AI models.
这就带来了很多额外的复杂性。
So that introduces a lot of additional complications.
而且你是在初创公司的预算下做这些,还经常被锁定在长期合同里,这对一个几乎没有产品、还没训练出模型、打算做大量基础研究的初创公司来说很困难。
And then you're doing it on the budget of a startup, and often you're getting locked into long term contracts, which is difficult for a startup that barely has a product, hasn't trained a model yet, is planning to do a lot of fundamental research.
所以你对未来算力的需求,比如三年后的需求,很大程度上取决于早期实验的进展。
So your future compute needs, say three years down the line, depend a lot on how your early experiments go.
而你不拿到算力,就没法进行早期实验。
You can't run the early experiments until you get the compute.
所以,当你自己训练模型,还要做那种基础研究的时候,确实会碰到很多额外的挑战。
So there are just a lot of extra challenges that get introduced when you're training your own models and you're trying to do that kind of fundamental research.
嗯,我觉得文章里提到的一个很实际的难点,就是合同的期限问题。
Well, one of the most interesting hurdles that I thought was very practical was also the length of the contracts you pointed out in the piece.
对。
Yeah.
而且最近几个月这个情况变化很大。
And that has really shifted in recent months.
就在不久前,初创公司基本上马上就能拿到算力。
It was not too long ago that startups could get compute basically right away.
他们可以按需获取算力,也就是所谓的按需市场或者现货市场。
They could get compute on an as needed basis on what were called the on demand or spot markets for compute.
但后来很多这样的资源都没了。
And then a lot of that capacity dried up.
现在,有时候人们得排队等好几个小时,才能让云服务商处理他们的任务。
These days, people will sometimes wait in a queue for hours for their job to get processed by a cloud provider.
有时候人们会反复回来,我听说有人等了一个星期甚至更久,最后才拿到一两块芯片。
Sometimes people will come back again and again for, I've heard, up to a week or more before they finally get access to just one or two chips.
所以那种按需和现货的获取渠道已经大幅减少了。
So the sort of on demand and spot access has dried up significantly.
而且不久之前,如果你要签合同,最短可以签一年,这被认为是训练第一个模型和做第一批重要实验的合理时间。
And then it wasn't too long ago either that if you were going to sign a contract, you could get a contract that was as short as, say, a year, which was considered a reasonable amount of time to sort of train your first model and do your first big experiments.
现在,有些供应商要求签一到三年,或者三到五年的合同,这对初创公司来说是个更大的挑战。
These days, there are providers that are pushing for one to three years or three to five years, and that's a much bigger challenge for startups.
成本更高,承诺也更大。
It gets much more expensive and it's a bigger commitment.
现在,我想让这个话题对大家更实用一些。
Now, I want to make this a little more tactical for people.
我们谈的是哪些类型的Neolabs?
What types of Neolabs are we talking to?
你有没有具体跟这些公司的人聊过?
Did you talk to people from any of these companies specifically?
我跟几家聊过。
I've talked to a few.
故事里我采访的一家公司是做机器人的。
So one of the companies that I talked to in the story is a robotics company.
他们开发了基础模型,也就是用来驱动机器人的AI模型,叫Generalist。
They developed foundation models, so AI models to power robots, called Generalist.
他们签了一年的合同,已经执行了六个月,这时候需要去市场上找更多的算力,结果发现,哇,市场跟他们上次找算力的时候相比,变化太大了。
They were about six months into a one year contract that they had signed and it was time to go out into the market and find more compute and they realized, woah, the market has changed a lot since the last time we were out here looking for compute.
不仅合同期限变长了,就像我们刚才说的,而且可用性、合同生效前的等待时间,还有价格,都大幅上涨了。
In terms of the term length, like we talked about, the duration of the contract, but also the availability, the lead time before those contracts could go into effect, and prices were up significantly.
根据一些价格指标,过去六个月左右,价格涨了50%。
Depending on some measures of prices, prices are up 50% over the last six months or so.
所以这个变化真的非常剧烈。
So that's been a pretty dramatic change.
我还跟一家小型研究机构聊过,这挺有意思的,因为他们可能不算严格意义上的Neolab,因为他们做的是研究而不是商业化模型,但他们属于类似的类别,因为他们也在处理大型模型,进行训练,还做预训练实验,这是训练过程中非常消耗算力的部分。
I also talked to a smaller research organization, which was interesting because they're maybe not a Neolab properly in the sense that they're doing research rather than commercializing models, but they're in a similar reference class because they're working with large models, they're doing training, and they're also doing pretraining experiments, which is a really compute intensive part of the training process.
所以他们面临和其他Neolab类似的困难,但他们是以研究机构的预算来做这件事的。
So they're facing similar hurdles to the other Neolabs, but they're doing it on a research organization's budget.
所以即使他们只需要大约60块芯片,而Generalist需要的是几百到上千块芯片,他们出去找的时候还是遇到了很多挑战,而且这笔钱占了他们预算的很大一部分。
So even though they're only looking for, say, in the ballpark of 60 chips relative to Generalist, which was looking for the high hundreds to low thousands number of chips, they still faced a lot of challenges going out and it represented a large portion of their budget to spend that money.
以至于当他们最终达成交易时,这个机构的一名员工买了一个蛋糕来庆祝,并把它送给了那个辛苦跑市场、和所有供应商谈的人。
So much so that when they finally closed the deal, one of the employees at this organization bought a cake to celebrate and to give it to the person who had done the hard work of going out into the market and talking to all of these providers.
我觉得这恰恰说明了这件事对这些机构来说有多重要。
I think that just underscores a little bit what a big deal this is for these organizations.
所以你提到了价格上涨。
So you talked about price going up.
你提到了合同期限。
You talked about the length of the contracts.
你还提到了他们作为初创公司,自己负担计算资源的能力。
You talked about their own means to afford the compute as well, given that they're startups.
那从卖方的角度考虑呢?
What about the consideration from the sellers' end?
所以,我在看那些超大规模云服务商,我们一会儿再聊Neocloud。
So, I'm looking at the hyperscalers, and we'll talk about the Neoclouds here in a second.
他们真的愿意或者有动力把算力给这些Neolabs,这些比较小的公司吗?
Do they actually want or are they incentivized to give compute to these Neolabs, these smaller companies?
我觉得,对微软来说,跟100家初创公司做生意,是不是比跟一个大客户做生意风险更大?
Is it more of a risk, I guess, for Microsoft to get business from 100 different startups as opposed to one large customer?
我想这里的激励机制对初创公司来说也不是很有利。
I imagine that the incentives here must be not really in favor for the startups either.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这里也会有一些挑战。
I think there are challenges that come up there as well.
另一方面,我想超大规模云服务商也不想把收入完全集中在一个客户身上,万一这个客户出了问题或者倒闭了。
On the other hand, I imagine hyperscalers don't want to have all of their revenue completely concentrated on one customer that could fall through or go under.
但是没错,你确实是在赌Neolabs。
But yeah, you're definitely taking a bet on Neolabs.
这样一来,云公司整体上就处在一个挺有意思的位置,它们会稍微有点偏袒某些公司,对吧?
And that puts cloud companies in general in kind of an interesting position where they are playing favorites a little bit, right?
它们其实可以做的就是把算力拍卖给出价最高的人,但实际操作中,它们可以自己判断哪些公司最值得支持,这样一来,云公司几乎就扮演了风投的角色,去挑选要押注的公司。
One thing they could do is just auction off their compute to the highest bidder, but in practice, they can make judgment calls about which companies they believe in the most, and that puts the cloud companies almost in the position of playing VC and choosing which companies to bet on.
对。
Right.
那新云呢?
What about the neo clouds?
新云公司有没有在解决这个问题?
Are the Neo Clouds, are they addressing this issue at all?
当然,我说的不只是Nebius和CoreWeave这类公司。
And of course, we're I'm not just talking about the Nebius and the CoreWeaves of the world.
我的意思是,还有更小的新云公司正在冒出来。
Mean, there are even smaller Neo Cloud companies that are popping up.
是的。
Yeah.
是的,他们确实在这么做。
Yeah, they are.
我觉得现在的情况是,他们正在推动更长的合同期限,以便在当前的高价位上锁定收入。
I think there the situation is that they're pushing for these longer contract terms to lock in revenue at the really high prices that we're seeing right now.
因为如果能和客户签下三到五年的合同,那未来几年就有了一大笔有保障的收入。
Because if they can get customers to sign three to five year deals, that's a lot of revenue that they have guaranteed in the years going ahead.
当然,也不是所有公司都这样。
Now, not all of them.
偶尔你还能碰到一年期的合同,但那种短期合同的价格会非常高。
Every once in a while, you maybe still come across a one year contract, but you're really going to pay for that kind of short duration.
有时候你甚至还能在现货市场或按需市场上找到算力。
And sometimes you can even find capacity that's still in the spot market or on demand.
但同样,你得为此付出高昂的代价。
But likewise, you're going to have to pay a lot for it.
所以,从新云公司的角度来看,权衡在于:是想要以当前的高价锁定长期收入,还是想在短期出售算力时获得极高的利润率?
So the trade off from the Neocloud's perspective is do we want longer term revenue locked in at the high prices we see right now, or do we want really high margins on the compute that we're selling in the short term?
所以,在这个权衡上,是可以做出一些商业决策的。
So there are business decisions that can be made on that trade off.
那么Rocket,你觉得这种紧张局面什么时候会开始缓解,对小型初创公司和Neolabs来说?
So Rocket, what's your sense on when this crunch starts to ease for the smaller startups and the Neolabs?
我的意思是,我们是不是得等上好几年,等这些数据中心都建好了,小公司的情况才会好转?
I mean, we going to have to wait years for these data centers all to get constructed for this to get easier for the smaller companies?
还是说,这可能在几个月内就能有所改善?
Or is this something that could get better in a matter of months?
你怎么看?
What are you thinking here?
这确实是个大问题,Akash,我觉得没人真正知道答案。
I mean, that is the big question, Akash, and I don't think anyone really knows.
有些人持谨慎乐观态度,认为随着新算力上线,可能在今年年底或一年内就会缓解。
Some people are tentatively optimistic that it could ease up by the end of this year or within a year as new compute comes online.
就像你说的,新数据中心正在建设,可用容量也在不断增加。
As you said, new data centers are getting constructed and more capacity is getting made available all the time.
另一方面,需求的增长速度已经超过了芯片新产能的增长速度。
On the other hand, the pace of demand has just exceeded the pace of new production of chips.
而且你可以想象这种情况会持续很长时间。
And you could imagine that going on a long time.
如果人工智能真的像很多人押注的那样有用,那么单个芯片的边际价值就会不断攀升。
If AI is as useful as a lot of people are betting that it's going to be, the marginal value of a single chip will just keep going up and up.
比如说,运行在芯片上的人工智能所做的工作的价值会持续上升,因为这些人工智能能为企业做更多真正有价值的工作。
Like, the value of the work that an AI can do running on that chip will just keep going up as those AIs can do more actually valuable work for enterprises, for example.
在这种情况下,也许情况不会好转。
In that scenario, maybe it doesn't turn around.
也许算力紧张会持续很长时间。
Maybe the compute doesn't go away for a very long time.
这很难说。
It's hard to say.
对。
Right.
因为东西变便宜了,这就完全是杰文斯悖论的情况。
Because as things get cheaper too, then it's the whole Cheevan's Paradox thing.
就是说,虽然便宜了,但更多人买得起,然后就得建更多数据中心。
It's like, well, it's cheaper, but that means more people can afford it, and then gotta build more data centers.
所以这确实是个值得关注的故事,Rocket。
So it's certainly an interesting story to watch, Rocket.
感谢你来做客。
I wanna thank you for coming on.
这位是Rocket Drew,我们The Information的AI和机器人记者。
That is Rocket Drew, our AI and robotics reporter here at The Information.
谢谢,Akash。
Thanks, Akash.
今天的节目就到这里。
That does it for today's show.
提醒一下,我们每周一到周五太平洋时间上午10点、东部时间下午1点直播。
A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.
如果到时候没空看,节目可以在theinformation.com、我们的YouTube频道,或者你常用的播客平台上收听。
If you can't make it then, episodes are available on theinformation.com, on our YouTube channel, or wherever you get your podcasts.
记得在社交媒体上关注我们,包括X、Instagram、TikTok和LinkedIn。
Make sure to follow us on social media, on X, on Instagram, on TikTok, and on LinkedIn.
我已经很期待明天的下一期节目了。
I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.
祝你周四剩下的时间过得愉快。
Have a great rest of your Thursday.
暂时再见啦。
Bye bye for now.
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