物流机器人初创企业、哈佛教授谈AI芯片大战、OpenAI商业动态 | 2025年11月5日

欢迎各位收看资讯TITV。我是主持人Akash Pashritsha。今天是11月5日星期三。我们为您准备了又一期重磅节目，将详细解读多组重要财报数据。今天我们将讨论AMD和Pinterest的财报——这两个截然不同的故事恰逢其时：近期AMD频频发布公告，而Pinterest股价今晨则大幅下挫。

Welcome everyone to the Informations TITV. My name is Akash Pashritsha. It is Wednesday, November 5. We have got another big show planned for you today with another big slate of earnings that we're going to break down for you. Today, we're talking about AMD and Pinterest earnings, two very different stories, but very timely with all the AMD announcements as of late, and Pinterest shares that were moving down big time this morning.

我们还将探讨今早发布的一篇报道，关于OpenAI的应用与商业策略如何影响消费类公司。此外将邀请英特尔资深董事深入探讨芯片行业动向。最后环节将介绍本年度50家最具潜力初创企业榜单中的机器人领域代表企业。本期内容非常充实，让我们直接进入主题。AMD昨晚公布了财报。

We're We're then going to talk about a story that we published this morning about how OpenAI's applications and commerce strategy is sitting with consumer companies. And we're also going to talk all things chips with a longtime board member from Intel. Finally, we're bringing on another company from our 50 most promising startups list from this year, this time from the robotics category. It's going to be a busy show, and so let's get right on into it. AMD reported earnings last night.

这个季度备受关注，因为该公司最近数月先后宣布了与OpenAI和甲骨文的重要合作。尽管盘后股价小幅下挫，但今晨基本持平。现在有请KeyBanc资本市场股票研究分析师John Vin为我们解析这家芯片公司的季度表现。John，很高兴您能参与节目。

It was a closely watched quarter with the company announcing its big deal with OpenAI and with Oracle in recent months. Although shares were slightly sinking after hours, they were about flat this morning. Joining me now to discuss the chip company's quarter is John Vin, Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. John, it's great to have you here. Welcome to the show.

谢谢邀请，Akash。

Great. Thanks for having me, Akash.

那么这季度AMD有哪些亮点让您印象深刻？

So what stood out to you from the quarter, this quarter for AMD?

我认为最受关注的AMD数据中心收入指标表现亮眼，同比增长超过20%。这主要得益于两个因素：一是最新MI350五纳米AI显卡的产能爬坡，同比实现大幅增长；

I think notably, and what was the most watched metric for AMD was their data center revenues. It did not disappoint. Revenues were up over 20% on a year over year basis. There were two things that was driving that. One was the ramp of the latest MI350 five gs AI GPUs, which grew substantially on a year over year basis.

二是服务器CPU业务。他们新推出的代号'热那亚'的服务器CPU表现极为出色，持续从英特尔手中夺取市场份额。这两大业务是推动业绩和指引的关键因素。

And also service CPUs. They've been launching a new service CPU. Codename is Genoa, and it's been doing extremely well, continues to gain share at the expense of Intel. And those were the key drivers of the results and guidance for them.

你能为我们分解一下各个业务板块吗？我是说，我们通常把AMD视为英伟达的挑战者。显然它的业务结构非常复杂。他们在收入分项披露方面做得不错。能否谈谈数据中心收入包含哪些内容？

Can you break down each of the segments for us? I mean, we think of AMD as this challenger to NVIDIA. It obviously has a very complicated business. They do a good job of at least breaking out their revenue into the segments. Can you talk about what is in the data center revenue?

客户端和游戏收入类别包含什么？嵌入式板块则是另一个我们关注较少的领域。

What is in the client and gaming revenue category? And then the embedded segment is another one that we don't pay attention to that much.

没错，数据中心板块由两大子板块构成，对吧？首先是服务器CPU，这部分历来由传统数据中心需求驱动。而AI GPU业务显然是该市场的新晋玩家。他们几乎从零份额起步，今年营收预计将接近70亿美元。

Yeah, the data center segment is made up of two major sub segments, right? You've got server CPUs, right? This historically has been driven by traditional data center demand. And then obviously the AI GPU business, they are an up and comer in this segment of the market. Obviously, beginning from virtually zero share, they're probably going to do close to $7,000,000,000 in revenues this year.

虽然与英伟达可能超过2000亿美元的AI GPU营收相比仍是遥居第二，但这就是数据板块的情况。客户端与游戏板块是笔记本/台式机业务与游戏GPU的组合，还包括为PlayStation和Xbox游戏主机提供的半定制业务。嵌入式业务则主要来自收购赛灵思获得的FPGA业务。

Obviously, it's still a distant second to NVIDIA, which is probably going to do well over $200,000,000,000 in AI GPU revenues, but that's the data segment. Client to end gaming segment is a combination of their client PC notebook, as well as their desktop business. And then the gaming business is gaming GPUs for desktops. And also, there are semi custom business which goes into gaming consoles from PlayStation and Xbox. And then the embedded business is mostly the former FPGA business that they acquired when they bought Xylinx there.

那么谈谈这里显示的客户端收入——创纪录的28亿美元，同比增长46%。这惊人增长背后的驱动因素是什么？

So talk a little bit about I see here client revenue was a record $2,800,000,000 up 46% year over year. What was behind that growth there? That's some pretty staggering growth.

是的，AMD的常态就是持续蚕食英特尔的市场份额。在笔记本领域持续抢占英特尔市场，而英特尔在PC端显然面临诸多挑战。台式机领域更是AMD的强势战场，英特尔自己都承认在该领域有所疏忽，导致台式机业务份额大幅流失。

Yeah, again, a common theme for AMD is they have been gaining share a lot at the expense of Intel primarily. So on the PC notebook space, they've been gaining share there against Intel. Intel obviously has lot of challenge there on the PC front. And then on desktop, desktop is probably the area where they're doing extremely well. That's kind of an area that Intel has admittedly taken their eye off the ball, and as a result, they're hemorrhaging share there on the desktop business.

让我们聚焦CPU领域的竞争。目前AMD对英特尔构成多大威胁？或者说英特尔对AMD的反制如何？谈谈这场较量。

And let's focus in on that CPU segment here. How much of a threat is AMD right now to Intel, or the other way around, Intel to AMD? Talk about that rivalry.

这个细分市场历来由英特尔主导，他们曾占据80%的市场份额。我们认为AMD的份额这些年已从20%逐步攀升至约25%到30%。预计未来一年左右AMD将继续扩大份额，而英特尔则制定了雄心勃勃的计划来遏制份额流失。

It's a segment that historically has been dominated by Intel. They historically have had 80% share. I think we've seen AMD's share creep up over the years from 20% to probably 25% to 30% at this point in time. I would expect that AMD would continue to gain share over the next year or so. Intel has very ambitious plans to kind of stem that share loss.

他们显然正专注于在Foundry厂量产最新芯片Panther Lake的AT和A版本，但这需要时间来实现稳定生产。在PC领域值得关注的是，两者都面临ARM架构的份额侵蚀威胁。ARM已在PC市场夺取大量份额，特别是在苹果产品线中——苹果已全面转向ARM架构。我们也看到高通等供应商推出了ARM架构处理器。

They're obviously focusing on taping out their latest chip called Panther Lake on AT and A at Foundry, but that's going to take some time to stabilize there. But I think the other thing that you want to watch on the PC front is they are both under some threat of share loss to ARM. ARM has taken a lot of share in the PC market, notably at Apple. Apple has gone to ARM architecture across the board. We've seen other merchant suppliers like Qualcomm launch their ARM CPU.

目前ARM的份额增长还较为温和，但我们认为长期来看ARM在CPU领域的市场份额将持续扩大。

It's gained kind of modest share right now, but over the longer term, we do think that ARM is going to continue to gain share on the CPU front.

从基本面来看，您如何评价AMD当前的估值？

When you look at AMD on a fundamentals basis, what do you think of the valuation right now?

我们认为目前估值处于合理区间。按明年预期收益计算市盈率约为40倍，这还未计入最近宣布的与OpenAI合作可能带来的额外收益——预计能贡献约3美元的每股收益。总体而言当前估值水平是公允的。

We think it's fairly valued at this point in time, right? The valuation is, it's trading at roughly 40 times our next year's earnings numbers. That doesn't factor in the potential contribution from the OpenAI deal that they recently announced. It probably adds another kind of $3 in earnings. But we think fairly valued at these levels.

相较我们更看好的英伟达和博通，AMD目前交易价格存在溢价。

And it's trading at a premium to NVIDIA that we prefer at this point in time, trades at a premium to Broadcom that we also prefer.

昨晚参加电话会议时，您对公司还有哪些未解的疑问？您希望他们在哪些方面能提供更清晰的说明？

And as you were listening into the call last night, what questions still remain for you about the company? What did you hope that they would give you more clarity on that still remains a little bit of an open question?

我认为有两个问题。最近几个季度，他们已停止披露AI GPU的具体收入数据，现在将其归入数据中心业务板块。过去他们会在季度报告中提供细分数据，现在只给出一些线索让你推测其AI GPU的大致收入。

I think there's two questions. They most recently, over the last couple of quarters, have stopped disclosing what their AI GPU revenues are. They now kind of lump it within their data center segment. They used to kind of give you kind of a breakout on a quarterly basis. They do give you some bread crumbs so you can come up with an approximation of what their AI GPU revenues are.

显然，这个指标很重要，能让你将他们与博通、英伟达等行业巨头进行比较。第二个问题我们需要等待更多信息澄清：明年他们将对其GPU解决方案进行重大架构调整，将推出新一代GPU MI450，以及机架架构Helios。这意味着他们将从单纯销售芯片转向为客户提供全栈解决方案。

Obviously, that's an important metric that allows you to kind of measure them up against the incumbents like a Broadcom and like an Nvidia. I think the second kind of question we'll have to kind of wait to get more clarity on this is next year they are introducing a significant architecture change to their GPU solution. Going to launch MI450, which is their next generation GPU. And they're also going to launch Helios, which is their rack architecture. So you're going to go from this paradigm of them basically shipping just chips to now shipping full stack solutions to their customers.

我们看到英伟达今年为将其RAC架构升级至GB300经历了不少阵痛。我们对他们的过渡计划以及能否顺利转向Helios RAC架构也存在类似担忧。

And we saw that NVIDIA went through a lot of growing pains this year to get their RAC architecture up to GB 300. I think there are similar concerns that we have around what their transition plan and how smoothly they're going to be able to transition to this Helios RAC architecture as well.

好的。约翰，感谢你参加节目。这个季度确实很有意思，特别是OpenAI和甲骨文的消息，看到这些因素如何影响业绩表现很有趣。这里是TI电视台的KeyBank分析师约翰·宾。Pinterest昨晚也公布了财报。

Right. Well, John, I want to thank you for coming on. It was a very interesting quarter, certainly with the Open AI and the Oracle News, it was interesting to see how that played out in the results. That is John Bin from KeyBank here on TI TV. Pinterest also reported earnings last night.

财报引发投资者强烈反应，今早股价大幅下挫。AI自然是电话会议的重点话题。现在请我们的广告行业记者凯瑟琳·佩洛夫来详细解析。凯瑟琳早上好，你怎么样？

It caused quite a bit of a stir among investors with shares sinking this morning. AI was, of course, a big focus on the call. I want to bring on Katherine Perloff, our advertising reporter, to break it all down. Katherine, good morning to you. How are you doing?

你好，阿卡什。

Hello. Hi Akash.

我们先讨论Pinterest，稍后再聊你今早发布的报道。Pinterest的股价因财报大幅波动，你怎么看？业绩真有那么糟糕吗？主要担忧是什么？

Let's talk Pinterest, and then we're going to talk also about a story that you published earlier this morning. But Pinterest, gosh, shares are moving big time on the earnings. What did you make of it? Were the results really anything that bad, or what was the concern?

我不认为结果很差，实际上我觉得相当不错。他们的增长率大约在17%左右，第一季度我记得是16%。今年他们增长得相当快，比去年还要快。CEO比尔·雷迪2022年年中上任后，确实让公司扭亏为盈——要知道疫情期间他们曾流失用户，还一度有些迷失方向。

I don't think the results were I think they were pretty good. They've been growing by, like, around 17%. I think it was 16% the first quarter. Like, they've been growing pretty fast this year and faster than they did, last year. And Bill Reddy, the CEO who came in in mid twenty twenty two, I think has really turned around the company since, yeah, in the pandemic when they were losing users and maybe lost focus a bit.

投资者反应激烈是因为他们预测的指导增长率低于过去几个季度的实际增长。有些投资方向可能没把握好，但基本上第四季度的收入增长指导是14%到16%，比之前稍微放缓了一点。

I think the investor reaction was because they predict they their guidance was for lower growth than they've been growing in the past couple quarters. I think there was some, you know, missing investments type of thing where but, basically, the the guidance was revenue growth in the fourth quarter for 14 to 16%, which is a little bit slower than the previous.

是有点放缓，但幅度不大。不，我是说...真的没差多少。

It's a little bit. It's not it's not that much. No. I mean, let's let's No. It's not that much.

显然第四季度是购物季，本该是广告业务的大季度。所以市场反应过度了。不过投资者确实可能有点过度担忧了。虽然社交媒体领域基本被Meta和谷歌垄断，但像Pinterest或Snap这样的小公司总是被放在显微镜下审视。

I do think obviously, the fourth quarter is the shopping season. It's supposed to be the big quarter for advertising and you know? So that I think that was maybe why there was an outsized reaction. But, yeah, I I do think it was maybe a little bit too concerned, from investors. Though I do think this this broader space of social media companies is so dominated by Meta and Google, people always really scrutinize, like, some of the smaller smaller firms like Pinterest or Snap.

确实，像Meta这样的公司主要收入来自广告，增速比Pinterest快得多，体量也更大。这不禁让人思考：规模较小且增长较慢的公司，在行业结构中的定位问题。

Well, and certainly when you see a company like Meta, their revenue comes mostly from advertising. They're growing faster than Pinterest. They're obviously a much bigger company. Yeah. And so I think it does pose a little bit of a structural question around, you have a smaller company that's growing slower.

这对整个行业的格局意味着什么？昨晚的电话会议他们谈了多少关于AI的内容？

What does that say about the overall positioning in the sector? How much did they talk about AI on the call last night?

他们最近确实发布了不少产品，特别是上周推出了新的购物助手——更像是聊天机器人体验，可以用对话方式提问，比如'我需要婚礼穿搭推荐'，系统就会从平台海量图片中生成建议。会上有人问到ChatGPT的威胁，以及沃尔玛等企业将ChatGPT整合进电商领域对他们的影响。毕竟Pinterest虽然不做交易，但本质还是广告平台。

Yeah. You know, I think they they obviously, have, they've released a bunch of products, especially last week. They, like, released a new shopping assistant, which is sort of a more chatbot like experience, where you could kind of ask more conversational questions about, like, I wanna, like, you know, have an outfit for a wedding or, you you know, in a more conversational way, then they'll produce recommendations from the kinda litany of photos that's on the platform. There was questions about sort of the threat of ChatGPT and also these commerce integrations that, you know, Walmart has integrated with ChatGPT and what did they think about that being very much in the sort of advertising and commerce space. I mean, they're not they don't do transactions on Pinterest, but they're advertisers.

这些是电商公司。他们的态度大概是：'我们已经是AI驱动的购物助手了'。要知道，当他们说AI时，很多其实是指传统的机器学习技术，但确实他们一直在使用AI。他们还表示拥有6亿月活跃用户。而据ChatGPT称他们有8亿周活跃用户，所以规模更大。

They're commerce companies. And they were kinda like, well, we already are an AI powered shopping assistant. And, you know, when they say AI, a lot of that is kind of the older machine learning, but it's true, and they have always, you know, used AI. They also said, that, yeah, they have 600,000,000, monthly active users. I think ChatGPT says they have 800,000,000 weekly active users, so that's more.

他们大致在表达：'我们仍是对话的一部分。我们是人们会去的平台，所以千万别把我们排除在外'。

They're kinda like, we're still in the conversation. We're we're a place people go, and, you know, you know, don't don't don't count us out, basically.

我认为这正好可以衔接到你今早与我们的电商领域记者安妮·吉安共同发表的报道。我想邀请安妮加入讨论。安妮和凯瑟琳，你们今天这篇报道讲述了OpenAI如何将自己定位为潜在超级应用对吧？他们正在整合电商功能，将众多消费网站接入平台。报道最精彩之处在于你们直接询问了OpenAI的潜在合作伙伴：'你们如何看待这些整合？'

Well, I think that's a good segue into a story that you published this morning along with our colleague, Anne Gian, who reports on all things ecommerce. I actually want to bring Anne in to help us chat about this. So Anne and Catherine, you wrote the story today about how OpenAI has sort of positioned itself as a could be super app, right? They're integrating commerce, they're integrating a lot of these consumer websites into their platform. And the great thing about your story is you went out to the potential partners for OpenAI and said, How are you thinking about these integrations?

你们支持这种整合吗？会像Etsy和沃尔玛那样争先恐后加入吗？还是说这种可能改变商业模式的整合让你们有所顾虑？这些消费网站给出了什么反馈？另外能否界定一下我们讨论的具体是哪些网站和公司？这能帮助我们明确讨论范围。

Are you in favor of it? Are you stampeding towards it like companies like Etsy and Walmart? Or is it giving you pause about how the business model could change? And what are these consumer websites telling you? And also maybe just sort of define the scope of which websites and which companies we're talking about here that would sort of help us anchor things.

当然。我和凯瑟琳采访了多家零售商、电商品牌以及像Pinterest这样历来吸引大量电商广告主的大型消费互联网公司。在接触的这些企业中，那些对与OpenAI合作持观望态度的公司反复强调：他们需要确保自己仍能高度掌控用户体验和购物体验。这其实是我过去几个月甚至几年报道电商领域时反复出现的主题——品牌方都希望尽可能牢牢把握消费者关系。因此当ChatGPT的电商功能可能使消费者与品牌及其官网产生距离时，确实让部分品牌（并非全部）开始慎重考虑是否要推进合作。

Sure. So Catherine and I spoke to several retailers, several e commerce brands, several big consumer Internet companies that have historically, like Pinterest, attracted a lot of commerce companies as advertisers. And so we spoke with a wide range of them and really, the thing that kind of kept coming up over and over again for some of these companies that are maybe a little more reluctant to partner with OpenAI or want to kind of wait and see how this is all going to play out is these companies really just want to they want reassurance that they're still going to have a lot of control over the user experience and the shopper experience. That's been a big thing that's come up for me just more generally in my ecommerce coverage over the past, you know, several months and even, you know, couple of years is brands really want to control shopper relationship closely as they can. And so introducing something like ChatGPT and their commerce features that potentially kind of moves shoppers a little bit further away from the brand and from their own website, that's something that is definitely making some brands, not all of them, but some brands are definitely thinking twice about whether this is something they want to really pursue.

他们考虑到的长期风险是什么？这种在关系中增加中间层或是去中介化的做法，会引发哪些长期担忧？

And what are the long term risks that they are thinking about? This idea of adding a middle layer to the relationship or disintermediating the relationship. What is their concern long term?

没错。所有这些品牌和零售商都希望掌握客户关系——这才是核心所在。他们需要获取你的联系方式以便发送营销邮件和短信，需要掌握你的购买记录，需要了解你在其网站上的浏览行为。这些珍贵的数据能帮助他们精准营销，最终促使你反复回购。

Sure. So, I mean, all of these brands and retailers, they want to own the customer relationship, which is really the name of the game. They want to have your contact information so they can send you marketing emails and text messages, and they want to know your purchase history. They want to know what you're browsing for on their website. All really valuable data points that they can use to market to you and ultimately get you to come back and purchase from them again and again.

我认为这些品牌担心的是，如果部分交易发生在ChatGPT上，它们是否还能像用户访问其网站时那样，获得完整的用户画像和重要洞察。从零售商的角度来看，这就是它们对引入中间商环节的顾虑。

So I think what some of these brands are worried about is if some of your transactions are happening on ChatGPT, are they going to have as complete of a picture of you as a shopper and have that kind of really important understanding that they get from you, when you come to their website? So that from the from the retailer perspective, that is kind of their worry about introducing a a middleman into this process, if you will.

凯瑟琳，这里的广告角度是什么？因为我想如果OpenAI掌控了这段关系，最终可能意味着你无法向这些客户投放广告，因为他们实际上已不在你的平台上。

And, Katherine, what is the advertising angle here? Because I imagine this could ultimate if if OpenAI owns this relationship, it means really you can't advertise to these customers because they're not really on your platform anymore.

理论上广告仍可能出现在ChatGPT界面中。但具体营收模式如何运作、OpenAI是否会从中抽成，目前尚未明确。过去几年广告界的一大趋势是越来越多零售商开始自建广告业务。

Yeah. I mean, you know, I I think that theoretically the ads could still show up within the kind of ChatGPT interface. But I, you know, I don't think it's been worked out what the revenue model would be or if OpenAI will get a cut of that. I think, you know, it's interesting. A big trend in the past couple years in the world of advertising is more and more retailers are creating, their own ad businesses.

我们看到沃尔玛和亚马逊都有庞大的广告业务。Instacart、Uber这些非传统媒体公司也纷纷涉足广告，因为它们能出售用户注意力资源。但如果你像A.M.说的那样无法识别用户身份，且用户不直接访问你的网站...

You know, we've seen, like, Walmart has a big ad business. Obviously, Amazon has a big ad business. You know, Instacart, though, Uber, all of these sort of, you know, not traditional media companies are having ad businesses because they can sell the fact that they have a bunch of attention from users. And if you don't have you know, if you don't know who those users are, as A. M.

就很难推销这种模式。这就是业内人士向我们表达的担忧。不过需要强调的是，这仍是个实验性项目，成败尚未可知。我们采访了首批合作企业Thumbtack——一个提供水管工等家修服务的平台，

Was saying, and they're not directly on your site Mhmm. It's hard to make that pitch. So I I think that's the concern, and that was a concern folks talked about with us. But I I think, you know, pushing back on that, you know, there there this is still an experiment, and we don't know if it's gonna work. So I for you know, we talked to this company, Thumbtack, which is one of the original partners on this super app announcement, and they're a place where you can, like, book a plumber or someone else to help with home repairs.

其CEO表示目前通过ChatGPT预订服务的用户体验可能还不如直接使用它们的应用。

And, you know, right now, the CEO told me that it might not be a better user experience to do that through ChatGPT than through their app. So

嗯。

Mhmm.

要知道，ChatGPT对他们而言或许更像是个共生伙伴，能帮他们获取更多用户，只要ChatGPT不试图取代他们的中间地位——这也未必会发生——那么这种关系目前未必是寄生性的或有害的。

You know, maybe ChatGPT is just kind of a symbiotic partner for them in getting them more users, but the relationship is not necessarily, you know, parasitic or, you know, bad at this point if if if ChatGPT doesn't sort of disintermediate them, which it might not.

但这确实让我联想到昨天亚马逊与Perplexity的纠纷。对吧？我们看到新闻正在发酵。这再次表明亚马逊的态度：如果我们不掌控用户关系，那就是对业务的威胁，我们必须应对。那么OpenAI对此有何回应？

But this does sort of strike me as part of what the Amazon and Perplexity dispute was just yesterday. Right? I mean, we saw that news playing out. This is, again, Amazon saying, well, if we if we don't own the relationship, then it it is a threat to our business and we ought to target that. And what is OpenAI saying about all this?

OpenAI的立场其实与许多担忧相反，他们设计系统时确保商户仍掌握客户关系。他们在结账功能的设计上考虑得很周全——商户控制支付流程，能获取配送地址等必要订单信息。通过ChatGPT购物时，信用卡账单显示的是实际商户名称（ChatGPT或OpenAI），这与其他新型AI购物工具不同。

Well, so OpenAI is kind of counter to a lot of this is that they have designed this so that merchants still own the customer relationship. You know, they were they were thoughtful about designing the checkout feature in a lot of different ways. You know, merchants control, the payment processing. They do get customer information that they need to fulfill orders like shipping addresses and things like that. When you make a purchase through ChatGPT, it shows up on your credit card statement as the merchant that you purchase from, ChatGPT or OpenAI, which isn't always the case with some of these other kind of new AI shopping tools.

他们试图在设计上让消费者仍以某种方式与商户互动。商户和零售商的担忧更多在于行为转变——如果人们习惯将ChatGPT作为购物入口而非独立网站。但OpenAI强调他们保留了商户和其他互联网公司的控制权，消费者行为变化及其衍生影响将很有趣。

So they have tried to design it in a way where shoppers are still interfacing with the merchant in some way. I think just the concern from from merchants and retailers is more just kind of that behavioral shift if people get used to going to ChatGPT as a shopping destination versus going to some of these individual sites. But OpenAI is definitely saying that, you know, they've designed this in a way where where merchants still have control and where some of these other, app companies and other Internet companies have control. So, it'll just be interesting to see how the consumer behavior shifts and what kind of some of the downstream impacts of that are.

好的。Anne和Catherine，感谢二位参与。这位是我们《信息报》的电商记者Anne Gian，以及负责广告领域的Catherine Perloff。当前芯片行业正值关键时刻：云巨头力推自研芯片，OpenAI分散投资不再只依赖英伟达，而英特尔和博通等公司也面临有趣局面。

Right. Well, Anne and Catherine, I want to thank you for coming on. That is Anne Gian, our e commerce reporter here at The Information and Catherine Perloff, who covers all things advertising here at our news firm. Okay, it is quite the moment for the chip sector with the big cloud companies touting their own chips and OpenAI diversifying its bets, so it's not only relying on NVIDIA. Meanwhile, companies like Intel and Broadcom find themselves in interesting situations as well.

现在有请哈佛商学院教授、英特尔前长期董事David Yaffe，为我们分析芯片行业现状。David欢迎来到节目，很高兴您能来。

So I want to bring on David Yaffe, a professor at Harvard Business School and a former longtime Intel board member, for a bit of analysis on what's going on right now in the chip sector. David, welcome to the show. It's great to have you here.

谢谢邀请。

Thank you for having me.

我想聊聊芯片，但首先想延续我们上节讨论的内容——OpenAI现在涉足商业领域，我们看到他们通过Sora2模型建立了社交网络。他们开发智能体，拥有聊天机器人。这简直是‘瞬息全宇宙’般的全面布局。作为战略学教授，我想听听您对这套整体战略的看法。

So I want to talk about chips, but I just want to tee up a little bit of the discussion that we just had in the last segment, which is OpenAI finds itself now doing commerce, and we've seen they've got a social media network with their Sora2 model. They're doing agents. They've got the chatbot. I mean, it really is everything, everywhere, all at once. And I want to get your take on this strategy as a whole, because you are a strategy professor.

您在哈佛商学院教授这门课程已有数十年。目前看来，这套战略对他们相当奏效，数据就是最好的证明。我的问题是：您当初预见到这套战略会如此成功吗？是否超出了您自己的预期？

You've been teaching this for many decades at HBS. Look, the strategy seems to be working pretty well for them. The numbers, they speak for themselves. My question for you is, did you anticipate that this strategy would work so well for them? Has it exceeded even your own expectations?

这是个好战略吗？

Is it a good strategy?

需要从两个维度来看。收入增长确实惊人，但亏损同样触目惊心。作为战略学教授，我习惯同时审视等式的两端。但不可否认的是：他们的增长速度更快、创新节奏更迅猛，即便面对Meta等公司的高额奖金诱惑，仍能吸引并召回顶尖人才

Well, you have to look at it from two perspectives. Obviously, the revenue growth has been spectacular, but their losses have been equally spectacular. So it goes in both directions. As a strategy, professor, you try to look at both sides of the equation. But nonetheless, there's no question they have been growing faster, they have been innovating faster, their ability to attract great people and even bring them back after they're being offered spectacular bonuses from places like Meta

确实超出了几乎所有人的预期。好，现在我们转向芯片领域的话题。我想探讨各家芯片公司的不同策略方向。总体而言，我们在芯片、云计算和AI生态系统中看到了某种循环性和供应商融资现象。

certainly exceeds almost everybody's expectations. Right. Well, let's shift to the chips side of this story. I want to get into the different angles that the chip companies are taking. But broadly, we've seen some circularity and some vendor financing, I guess, in the chips, cloud, and AI ecosystem.

我们常问那些具有全局视野的专家：您如何看待这一切？您对此有何见解？

One of the questions we like asking people who have such a great bird's eye view on things is what they think of all this. What do you make of all of it?

我在英特尔董事会任职时，我们确实没有采取这种做法。当时我们明确决定不投资客户业务，这背后有多重考量。英伟达现在的竞争地位已不同往日，其实力甚至超越了英特尔巅峰时期。

Well, know, when I was on the board of Intel, we actually didn't do this. It was an explicit decision not to invest in our customers' businesses. And there were a lot of reasons for it. I think that NVIDIA's got a different competitive position now. It's much stronger than Intel was even at its peak.

因此它在功能上具有更多灵活性，显然推动了GPU的需求增长。对英伟达来说这是利润率极高的业务，这非常合理。它锁定了部分客户，因为一旦人们完全依赖CUDA和英伟达生态，转向替代方案就需要承担更高的转换成本。我个人认为替代方案将会在未来一两年内出现，但另一方面这其中也存在诸多风险。

So it has a little bit more flexibility to do things. It's clearly driving demand for GPUs. So it's a very, very high margin business for NVIDIA, and that makes a lot of sense. It's locking some customers in because once people get totally committed to CUDA and the NVIDIA environment, then they have more switching costs to try and go to alternatives, which I actually believe will be emerging, let's say, the next year or two. On the other hand, there's a lot of risk associated with it.

他们可能正在刺激大量不可持续的人为需求。就像我们在2000年看到电信行业过度投资导致巨额亏损那样，他们确实面临供应商风险。这就是循环性的问题——一方面你在刺激需求，另一方面如果这些需求本质上不可持续，最终可能导致大量坏账和严重后果。

They could be stimulating a lot of artificial demand, which is not sustainable. They have certainly vendor risk, just like we saw in 2000 when people were investing heavily in the telecom sector and saw huge losses as a result. So that's the problem with circularity, which is on the one hand, you are stimulating demand. On the other hand, if it isn't actually sustainable demand, you end up with potentially a lot of very bad debt and a lot of poor consequences down the road.

你提到替代方案将在明年出现。你在关注哪些厂商？是指AMD吗？你重点关注哪些竞争者？

You say alternatives coming up in the next year. Who are you watching? Are we talking AMD here? Who are you paying attention to?

实际上我关注许多不同厂商，不仅限于AMD。AMD确实是目前唯一能在核心技术层面与英伟达GPU直接竞争的公司。但还有两个关键点：首先是各类其他加速器，无论是谷歌TPU还是亚马逊微软正在开发的专用解决方案，它们能以更低成本实现特定功能；其次核心问题是，当前部署的算力有多少将用于需要GPU的训练环节，又有多少会用于推理环节？

Well, actually, I'm paying attention to a lot of different players because it's not just AMD. I mean, AMD is the only company that really has a GPU competitor that can compete directly with NVIDIA on the core technology. But there are two other things we have to be thinking about. One is that there are a variety of other types of accelerators, whether we're talking about TPUs Google or some of the other capabilities that Amazon and Microsoft are trying to develop that would allow them to do some of the same things in a more narrowly focused way but without the expense of a Blackwell GPU. In addition, the big question down the road is how much of this capacity that's being put into place is going to be used for training, which requires a GPU, or is going to be used for inference?

对于推理环节，你并不需要高性能GPU，使用CPU搭配加速器就能以极低成本实现。所以关键问题是：当前英伟达GPU的需求热潮能否持续，还是会出现回落？

And for inference, you don't necessarily need a high powered GPU. You can use a CPU and an accelerator, which is a fraction of the cost. So down the road, the question is, will that same demand for NVIDIA GPUs that we see today be sustained or will we start to see it tail off?

那么你认为这些超大规模芯片——比如上周财报电话会议中频繁提及的TPU和Trainium芯片——真的会从英伟达手中夺取可观市场份额吗？

So do you actually see these hyperscalers chips, the TPU and Tranium, which were very much at the center of the earnings calls last week, do you see them taking significant market share from NVIDIA?

这取决于时间维度。如果问未来18个月，答案绝对是'不会'。但如果问三到四年后，我认为它们会开始侵蚀市场份额。

It depends on the time frame. If you said to me in the next eighteen months, the answer is absolutely not. Okay. If you said to me the next three to four years, then I think it starts to eat into the share.

那么关于CPU领域的竞争呢？你们有英特尔，有AMD。这是你非常熟悉的领域。像英特尔这样的公司对AMD构成多大威胁？或者说AMD在蚕食英特尔市场份额方面取得了多大进展？

And and what about the CPU race here? You've got Intel. You've got AMD. This is a a space you know very well. How much of a threat does a a company like Intel pose to AMD, or how much traction is AMD getting eating into Intel's market share?

嗯，过去五六年AMD非常成功地蚕食了英特尔的市场份额。我预计至少在短期内这种趋势还会持续。真正的问题是：英特尔能否重整旗鼓？重整旗鼓意味着两件事：一是必须明确其晶圆代工和制造业务的真正战略方向。

Well, AMD has very successfully eaten into Intel's market share in the last five or six years. I suspect that that is going to continue for at least the short run. The real question is, can Intel get its act together? And getting its act together means two things. One is it has to figure out what its real strategy is with its foundry and manufacturing.

它是要真正与台积电竞争，还是更专注于满足自身内部需求？其次，它必须重新聚焦产品研发。我认为帕特·基辛格制定了非常雄心勃勃的战略，但全部集中在代工业务上。他们在开发能与英伟达、博通或AMD竞争的优秀新产品方面失去了大量专注力。不过现任管理层至少正在朝这个方向努力。

Is it going to actually compete with TSMC or is it going to be more heavily focused on its own internal demand? And second, it's got to actually get refocused on products. I think Pat Gelsinger a very ambitious strategy, but it was all focused on the Foundry. They lost a lot of their focus and attention on making great new products that would potentially be able to compete with Nvidia or Broadcom or AMD. And I think that the current management is at least moving in that direction.

在这些决策维度上，你最终的建议是什么？我知道你已不在董事会，但听着——我做过这类案例分析。我在加拿大常春藤商学院读本科时也做过案例研究。最终你总要给出建议。

And so on those decision vectors here, what ultimately is your recommendation that I know you're not on the board anymore, but look. I did these cases. I I I went to an undergraduate program, the Ivy Business School in in Canada. We did the cases too. At the end of it all, you gotta give a recommendation.

那么你对英特尔的最终建议是什么？他们应该如何在这两个决策维度上布局？

What is your ultimate recommendation to Intel then as to how they should play along both those decision vectors?

所以

So

我在《财富》杂志过去一年发表的多篇文章中详细阐述过这个观点。我认为他们确实需要剥离制造业务，成立独立的制造公司来与台积电竞争，而他们的产品业务则应真正专注于CPU和加速器领域，这样才能更有效地与AMD和英伟达竞争。我主张剥离制造业务的原因很多，最重要的是英特尔从未建立过服务文化。而作为为其他公司提供服务的代工厂，本质上属于服务业而非产品业。

Well, I've written about this extensively, a number of pieces in Fortune over the last year. My view is that they actually need to spin off their manufacturing, create a separate manufacturing operation that would then be able to compete with TSMC, and that their product business should then really focus on making products in this space of CPUs and accelerators that would enable them to compete much more effectively with AMD and NVIDIA. There are lots of reasons why I think they should spin off the manufacturing. The most important one is that Intel never had a service culture. And being a foundry servicing other companies really is real service business, not a product business.

在我担任英特尔董事的近三十年里，他们每次试图成为高质量服务提供商的尝试都以失败告终。因此我认为他们需要改变企业文化。他们还面临一个问题：如果我是英伟达或AMD，在将芯片交给英特尔代工前会犹豫不决，因为英特尔未来仍可能是潜在竞争对手。而使其成为更有效代工厂的关键在于保持独立性，并消除利益冲突的疑虑。

And Intel failed every time in my almost thirty years on their board of trying to be a high quality service provider. So I think they need a different culture. And they also have the problem that if I'm NVIDIA or AMD, I'm going to hesitate before I put my chips into an Intel fab because it's still going to be a potential competitor down the road. And so what makes it a much more effective foundry is if it's independent and there's no perception of conflicts of interest.

确实。这场竞赛令人着迷，英特尔当前正处于一个关键节点，我预计未来还会有更多变革。大卫，非常感谢你参加节目，我们非常感激。

Right. Well, it's a fascinating race to watch, and Intel is certainly in a moment here that I anticipate there's going be more changes to come. David, thank you so much for coming on the show. We really do appreciate it.

谢谢邀请。

Thank you for having me.

好的，正如我们昨天讨论的，本周我们发布了信息领域50家最具潜力初创企业名单，这些企业让我们的消息源赞不绝口。本周每天我们都会预览名单上的一家公司，今天要讨论的是Pickle Robot。这家公司建造的机器人并非用于处理泡菜，而是用于供应链自动化。我们有请创始人兼CEO AJ Meyer，以及选中该公司进行报道的机器人领域记者Rocket Drew。

Okay, as we talked about yesterday, this week we've released our list of the information's 50 most promising start ups that our sources cannot stop telling us about. Every day this week, we are previewing a company on that list. Today, we are talking about Pickle Robot. The company is building robots, not for pickles, but for supply chain automation. I want to bring on founder and CEO, AJ Meyer, along with our robotics reporter, Rocket Drew, who picked the company to talk about this business.

Rocket和AJ，欢迎来到节目，很高兴你们能来。

Rocket and AJ, welcome to the show. It's great to have you here.

为泡菜设计机器人？这个想法有意思，真想见识一下。

For having Robots for pickles. That's an idea. Would like to see some of that.

我正想问呢，AJ，在开始讨论前，为什么公司要叫Pickle Robot？

I was just going to say actually, before we talk, AJ, why is it called Pickle Robot?

是的，全名是Pickle Robot Company（泡菜机器人公司），这其实是戏仿Apple Computer Company（苹果电脑公司）的命名方式，他们就是这样起家的。

Yeah. Well, the full name is the Pickle Robot Company, which was actually a play on the Apple Computer Company, which is how they started.

还有

And of

当然这是个用手操作的机器人，所以

course it's a robot that uses its hands, so

它能抓取物品。不过我觉得泡菜机器人公司这个名称其实并没有解答为什么它要叫泡菜机器人。

it picks things. Somehow I don't think that the Pickle Robot Company really answers the question about why it's a pickle robot.

说实话，我觉得我们就是特别喜欢青柠绿这个颜色，所以把机器人都漆成这种颜色，我也尽可能多地使用它。

Yeah. Well, I think we just really like lime green, frankly, and so we paint the robots this color, and I try and use as much as I can.

好的。那么这些机器人是绿色的。它们具体是做什么的？给我们介绍一下业务吧。

Great. Okay. Well, the robots are green. What what do they actually do? Tell us about the business.

没问题。Pickle Robot公司位于马萨诸塞州波士顿，约有130名员工。我们研发了全球最优秀的自主卸货卡车机器人。本月晚些时候我将非常激动地宣布，我们与一家家喻户晓的蓝筹客户达成了有史以来最大规模的商用类人机器人交易。你可能会好奇，为什么一群来自MIT的物理AI专家——人们可能以为他们会研究自动驾驶汽车——却专注于卸货卡车这个领域。

Sure. Pickle Robot is about 130 people here in Boston, Massachusetts. We've built the world's best autonomous robot for unloading trucks. I'll be really excited later this month to announce the largest ever deal, commercial deal for a human like robot of this type with a blue chip customer everybody's heard of. And you might be kind of wondering why a bunch of physical AI experts from MIT that you might expect would be working on something like self driving cars would focus on unloading trucks.

关键在于，我们不仅仅造了个卸货卡车的机器人。实际上我们已经构建了一个平台，可以快速创建各类新型机器人，实现供应链上各种工作的自动化。但真正让我兴奋的是即将到来的发展。现在可以确定的是，机器人时代正在来临——不仅来自我们公司，还有许多其他企业。因此我们现在需要开发一些软件来协调整个供应链的自动化与机器人技术。

And the thing is, we didn't just build a robot for unloading trucks. We actually have now built a platform that we can now use to create all kinds of new robots very quickly to automate all kinds of other jobs along the supply chain. But what I'm really excited about is what's coming next. Think now that the robots are definitively coming, not just from my firm, but from many others. And so there's a need now for some software that we've been developing to coordinate automation and robotics across the supply chain.

我们的实现方式非常独特，是其他企业未曾尝试的。为此我们正在人工智能和机器人领域大举招揽人才。如果观众中有对此感兴趣的，希望他们能重点关注。

We're doing it in a really unique way that no one else is doing. So we're hiring pretty aggressively in AI and robotics talent. So if any of your viewers are interested in this sort of thing, I hope they focus.

那么Rocket，你本可以选择任何机器人公司。为什么选中Pickle进入这份名单呢？

So, Rocket, you could have picked any robot company. Why'd you pick Pickle to be on this list?

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。我的意思是，你可能已经注意到人工智能正在改变机器人技术，让机器人能够完成过去难以胜任的任务。而人工智能机器人的前沿应用主要集中在物流领域——就是那个负责货物运输和仓储的行业。

Yeah. That's right. I mean, you might have a sense that AI is kind of transforming robotics lately, is making robots capable of performing tasks that they've really struggled at in the past. And a lot of the action there on the frontier of AI powered robots is happening in logistics. You know, that industry that's about moving goods and storing them in warehouses.

现在有很多公司都在仓库和物流中应用人工智能机器人。但卡车装卸尤其凸显出机器人技术的独特价值，事实上它被称为物流自动化的圣杯。Ajay，也许你能说明下为什么这项任务被称为圣杯？

So there are a lot of companies that are applying AI powered robots in warehouses and for logistics. But truck loading and unloading in particular stands out as a really interesting application for robotics. And in fact, it's been called the holy grail of logistics automation. Maybe, Ajay, you can give us a sense of why this task is the holy grail.

是的。其中一个原因是这是所有企业都面临的场景。想想看，任何工厂、物流中心甚至零售网点都有卷帘装卸门，长途卡车需要在这里进出运送货物。所以每栋建筑都有这种标准化的装卸码头外围基础设施，与建筑内部用途无关。人们研究这个课题已经很久了，至少从上世纪80年代起，我们有些客户就一直在尝试攻克这个难题。

Yeah. I mean, one reason is that everybody has it. So think like any factory, any logistics plants, even all the retail sites have roll up dock doors where over the road trucks have to come and go to bring goods in and out of the building. So like every building has this kind of shared perimeter infrastructure in the loading docks that's pretty much the same regardless of what goes on inside the building. So people have been working on this for a very long time, at least since the eighties, some of our customers have been trying to crack this nut,

你刚才提到的那些蓝筹客户中，有哪些是你们正在合作的？

Who are some of those blue chip customers, as you say, that you're working with?

是的。这个市场大致分为两个方面。一方面是超级企业类别，比如沃尔玛、DHL、亚马逊、UPS这些大公司。另一方面还有上千家中端市场客户，比如彪马、Randa（我现在正好穿着他们的裤子）、休斯顿物流、Veritiv、胡佛吸尘器、Ryobi工具等。

Yeah. So the market kind of has two facets to it. So you have the super enterprise category, think like Walmart, DHL, Amazon, UPS, these guys. And then you've got a thousand other customers in this more mid market category, think Puma and Randa, who I happen to be wearing their pants right now, Houston, Logistics, Veritiv, Hoover Vacuum, Ryobi Tool.

你们和所有这些公司都有合作吗？

And you're working with all these companies?

几乎都有合作。不过刚才提到的一些大型企业我们暂时还没合作，但很快达成合作我也不会感到意外。

Almost all of them. Some of the bigger enterprises that I mentioned we're not working with yet, but I won't be surprised if we do soon.

明白了。Rocket，你在整理这份名单时，上面有四个很棒的机器人公司名字。关于机器人领域你有哪些观察？我们节目嘉宾包括Vinod Khosla都说过，现在机器人公司的估值简直疯狂。实际上有些情况下，你很难找到估值低于10亿美元的机器人公司，这也是我们名单的筛选标准之一，毕竟风投是这么看待这个领域的。

Got it. Rocket, when you were putting this list together, you've got four great robot names on there. What were some of the observations you made with respect to robotics? We've had people on the show, including Vinod Khosla, coming out and saying, Hey, the robotics valuations right now are bonkers. Actually, in some cases, it's hard to find robot companies where they're not valued at least a billion dollars, which is kind of our cutoff for the list because of the way that VCs are viewing the space.

但你是如何评估当前最具潜力的公司的？

But how did you think about the companies that have the most potential right now

没错，你在整理名单时完全说对了。我们制定了一些相当严格的标准。我们要找的是处于早期阶段的新创公司，可能是些未经雕琢的璞玉。所以有些机器人公司因为融资过多被直接淘汰了，包括那些虽然很年轻但已经融了很多资、却还没有太多市场反响的公司。我想很多人可能期待这份名单上都是纯AI的机器人公司。

Yeah, when you were putting together your that's exactly right. We had some pretty strict criteria for putting together the list. We want to find startups that are early on, maybe companies that are kind of diamonds in the rough. So some robot companies were kind of disqualified immediately because they'd raised too much money, including companies that had raised a lot of money even though they're quite young and don't have a lot of traction yet in the market. So I think a lot of people were maybe expecting robot companies on this list that are pure AI.

他们只是在为机器人开发AI模型，或者制造人形机器人。我的意思是，目前人们对像人一样用双腿行走、双臂末端有五指手掌的机器人非常感兴趣。但特别是这两类公司往往融资过多或估值过高，因此未能入选这份名单。所以我们更关注那些对AI有实际应用眼光的公司，对吧？

They're just developing AI models for robots. Or they're making humanoids. I mean, there's a lot of interest right now in robots that walk on two legs like a person and they have two arms with five fingered hands on the end of them. But especially companies in those two categories tended to have raised too much money or be valued too highly to make it onto this list. So we also focused on companies that have sort of a practical eye towards AI, right?

比如他们使用AI，热衷于所有最新技术，但并非为了AI而AI。他们思考的是如何将AI作为实现目标的手段，而这个目标就是为客户提供有价值的服务。

Like they're using AI, they're keen on all of the latest technologies, but they're not using AI for its own sake. And they're thinking about how AI can be a means to an end. And that end is providing a valuable service to their customers.

AJ，你目前业务中面临的最大挑战是什么？

AJ, what's the biggest challenge that you're facing in your business right now?

哦，好问题。关税形势确实是个现实问题。我们创业时做的是进口货运业务，也就是来自亚洲、欧洲或南美的海运集装箱，里面装满即将上架的商品，然后由我们的机器人卸货。所以你能想象最近这确实带来了一些阻力。

Oh, great question. Well, certainly the tariff situation is relevant. We started our business handling import freight. So that's ocean containers that come from Asia, Europe, or South America, and they're full of products that are going to hit the shelves, and then our robots unload it. So you can imagine that's been a bit of a headwind recently.

幸运的是，我们得以进入一些受影响较小但难度更大的市场领域。比如分销货运——亚马逊装满一卡车各种不同包裹。这任务要困难得多，但我们现在已经成功实现了量产。

Thankfully, we were able to enter some of the more difficult ends of the market that are not as impacted. So think like distribution freight. Amazon loads up a truck, it ends up full of all different kinds of packages. It's a much harder task, but it's one that we're doing successfully in production today.

很棒。这真是个迷人的行业，Rocket，我很喜欢看到这些公司名字。我们就不讨论其他公司了，因为读者需要订阅才能查看，但'Tickle Robot'是其中之一，而且名列前茅。我建议大家去了解一下。这位是The Information的机器人与AI记者Rocket Drew，以及Pickle Robot Company联合创始人兼CEO AJ Meyer，他们正在TI TV上。

Great. Well, it's a fascinating business, and Rocket, I loved seeing the names of the companies. We won't talk about the other ones too, because people have to subscribe to read it, but Tickle Robot is one of them, and they were at the top of the list. So I encourage everyone to go check it out. That is Rocket Drew, our robotics and AI reporter here at The Information, and AJ Meyer, who is the cofounder and CEO of the Pickle Robot Company here on TI TV.

今天的节目就到这里。提醒大家我们每周一至周五太平洋时间上午10点/东部时间下午1点在此直播。感谢本节目冠名赞助商亚马逊云科技，也感谢各位的收看。我们非常重视每一位观众。我已经开始期待明天的节目了。

Well, that does it for today's show. A reminder that we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern. I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production, and I want to thank you for tuning in. We really do appreciate your viewership. I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow.

祝你周三剩下的时间愉快。现在先再见啦。

Have a great rest of your Wednesday. Bye bye for now.