SpaceX Forecasted to Burn $350B by 2030, How xAI Went From Chasing Anthropic to Powering It

欢迎各位收看《信息时报》TITV。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.

我是阿卡什·佩斯里查。

My name is Akash Pesritcha.

今天是6月5日，星期五。

It is Friday, June 5.

今天开场，我们带来一些关于SpaceX的全新预测，这家公司下周即将冲击史上最大规模的IPO。

We start today with some new revealing forecasts for SpaceX, which is angling for the biggest IPO ever next week.

我们将与财经特派副主管一起，深入解析高盛为这家公司测算出的独家数据。

We'll break down our exclusive reporting on new numbers that Goldman Sachs has modeled out for the company with our Deputy Bureau Chief of Finance.

接下来，我们会深入探讨Anthropic和xAI之间这场你追我赶的博弈。

We'll then dive deeper into the cat and mouse game playing out between Anthropic and xAI.

我们独家获取了这两家公司之间关系的最新内幕。

We've got exclusive new reporting on the relationship between the two companies.

节目最后，我们独家披露：数据中心开发商Switch正在洽谈融资，估值至少达到500亿美元，这背后意味着整个数据中心产能危机将如何演变。

And we'll close out the show with our scoop that data center developer Switch is in talks to raise money at a valuation of at least $50,000,000,000 We'll look at what that means for the broader data center capacity crunch.

今天这期节目特别精彩，咱们直接开讲。

It's going to be a fun Friday show, so let's get right on into it.

SpaceX下周计划进行史上最大规模的IPO，但我们的独家报道显示，华尔街分析师认为，未来几年这家公司可能还需要筹集更多资金。

SpaceX is planning what will be the biggest IPO of all time next week, most likely, but the information has exclusive reporting that Wall Street analysts suggest the company might need to raise even more money in the years to come.

我请来财经部副总监科里·温伯格，来为大家解读他的报道。

I want to bring on Deputy Bureau Chief of Finance, Cory Weinberg, to break down his reporting.

科里，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Cory, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你今天能来。

It's great to have you here.

SpaceX这次打算募资750亿美元，

So SpaceX is gonna go out.

而你的报道指出，华尔街认为他们最终可能需要筹到更多？

It's gonna try to raise $75,000,000,000, and your reporting suggests that Wall Street thinks they're gonna have to raise even more?

没错，正是这样。

That's exactly right.

这些数字是投资银行的预测，特别是高盛的预测。

These are numbers that the investment banks are forecasting, specifically Goldman Sachs.

我以前在重大IPO前夕也报道过类似的数据。

And I've reported on these types of numbers before in the run up to, you know, sort of significant IPOs.

投资银行的分析师通常会从公司本身获取预测方向，这已经是行业惯例了。

You know, it's pretty standard practice for the analysts at the investment banks to get their cues from the companies themselves on what their forecasts are.

然后，银行和分析师们会把这些预测口头传达给参与IPO的合格投资者。

And then the analysts and the bankers at the investment banks essentially pass those on to verbally to sort of accredited investors in the IPO.

而我们则能拿到这些信息。

And then we get get our hands on them.

这通常挺有意思的，毕竟谁真能看透未来呢？

And usually it's an interesting exercise because who can really see the future?

这些预测是不是太保守了？

Are these forecasts super regressive?

还是说它们偏于谨慎？

Are they conservative?

不管怎样，这家公司最终还是要对这个标准负责。

Regardless, the company is going to be held to this standard.

我最觉得有意思的是，这些数字暴露了华尔街对SpaceX未来几年烧钱速度的预期有多高——如果他们的现金消耗数据没错，就算史上最大的IPO也撑不到2028年。

And what I found most interesting about these numbers was how revealing they were in terms of just how much money Wall Street expects SpaceX to burn in the coming years, so much so that the largest IPO of all time won't get them through 2028 if if their cash burn numbers are are correct.

说来有趣，科里，我们其实并不清楚这些模型里到底包含了多少东西。

It's funny, Cory, because we don't know how much goes into these models.

我的意思是，这背后得有大量对话，还得做大量的数据推算。

I mean, these are a lot of conversations, a lot of number crunching.

我想象的场景是，某个资深银行家看着预测数据，盯着支出增长率之类的数字，然后在旁边随手加一句：这数字好像偏低了。

Really what I'm imagining is some senior banker looking at the forecast looking at some growth rate for expenses or something, and maybe a little something around the line, This looks a bit low.

那就往上调一调吧。

Let's raise it a bit.

归根结底，这其实就是一个建模游戏，对吧？

I mean, it's a modeling exercise really at the end of the day, right?

这确实是个建模游戏。

It's a modeling exercise.

但通常分析师和银行都希望他们的预测在市场共识的范围内。

But usually the analysts and the banks want to be within some sort of realm of consensus.

他们希望跟公司自己告诉他们的模型数据差不多。

They want to be around where the company themselves have have told them that they're modeling.

通常他们会稍微调整一下，当然也会基于自己的判断对数据做出一些假设。

And usually, they tweak it a little bit, and they, of course, have their own intellectual assumptions around around the numbers.

但确实如此。

But but yeah.

不是的。

No.

这正是我认为大家至少应该认真看待这些数字的原因——这不只是为了给IPO造势而已。

It's it's the reason why I think folks should take these numbers at least somewhat seriously, and it's not just an exercise to be like, well, they're just trying to pump up the IPO.

他们也不是单纯想把一切看起来都特别光鲜。

They're just trying to make everything look really good.

真正的原因是，等公司上市之后，大家都会回头来看这些数字。

Is it because after they go public, we're gonna be looking everyone's gonna be looking back at these numbers.

投行在IPO之后会公布这些数据，像SpaceX这样的公司，以及其他任何走过这条路的企业，都会被要求遵循这个标准。

The banks are gonna publish these numbers after the IPO, and the company, you know, SpaceX and then obviously any other company that goes through this are held in some ways to this this standard.

你明白吧？

You know?

所以这些数字是值得认真对待的。

So they are worth taking seriously.

那我们来具体聊聊这个预测的细节吧。

So let's talk about then the the details of this forecast.

大部分的现金消耗都来自人工智能业务和公司未来要做的资本投入，对吧？

So most of this burn is coming from the AI business and the capital investments that the company's gonna have to make?

是的。

Yeah.

百分之百。

100%.

我觉得未来几年，大约四分之三到百分之八十的资本支出都会用在人工智能上，你知道的。

I think about three quarters to 80% of the the CapEx is for AI in the coming years that you know?

没错。

Right.

这一点值得注意，因为他们花钱的地方可不止一个。

So which is notable because it's you know, there's a bunch of things they're spending money on.

比如他们的星舰和星链项目。

Their Starship, their Starlink.

那在上市之后，SpaceX 怎么才能再筹集到这笔额外的资金呢？

And and how do you figure that SpaceX would then raise this additional sum of money then after the IPO?

大概是通过债务市场，或者再次进入股权市场融资。

I mean, probably the debt markets or they would tap the equity markets again.

报道里提到，SpaceX 的高管，包括埃隆·马斯克，在和华尔街投资者交谈时，一直淡化了上市后继续增发股票、进一步稀释股东权益的可能性。

I note in the story that in conversations with Wall Street investors, SpaceX executives, including Elon Musk, has has sort of played down the idea that they would raise even more equity and dilute shareholders further after going public.

我们得看看这到底是不是真的，也要观察他们上市后，举债和发股哪个更容易些。

We'll see if that's actually true, and we'll see what their you know, sort of what the relative ease of raising debt versus equity would be would be for them going public.

这些就是银行目前最新的预测了。

And so these are the latest forecasts that we have from the bank.

你应该说的是来自这家银行。

What's your from a bank, should say.

牵头的银行。

The lead bank.

来自牵头银行。

From the lead bank.

明白了。

Okay.

那现在是什么在推动局面呢？

So what's setting the pace here.

这些数字出来后，市场反应怎么样？

What's the temperature then on I mean, these are the numbers.

分析师们对这些预测怎么看？

What's the temperature on how analysts feel about these forecasts?

投资者们是什么态度？

What investors are feeling?

我的意思是，这对他们来说是个意外的打击，还是他们早有预料？

I mean, was this of an unwelcome surprise to them, or were they expecting this?

对。

Yeah.

我跟一位大型买方投资者聊过，他说他们其实自己建了模型，基于BS1，也参考了公司提供的反馈。

I talked to one large buy side investor, you know, who said like, oh, our you know, obviously, people are doing our own models based on BS one, based on feedback from the company.

我们得自己做分析，不能光听银行怎么说。

Like, we're gonna do our own work, not just listen to the banks.

结果发现，所有数据都比我们原先想的大了十倍。

And, basically, it was like, yeah, it was like, everything was 10 times larger than we thought.

也不是十倍，而是比我们预想的要大得多。

Or not 10 everything was a lot larger than we thought.

收入、现金消耗，这些数字都被调高了，咱们得聊聊这些大数字。

Revenues, cash burn, you know, they sort of turned up the dial on these numbers because let's be let's talk about some big numbers.

咱们先把这个基础说清楚。

Like, let's let's let's sort of set the foundation here.

去年，SpaceX的收入大约是81.86亿美元。

Last year, SpaceX had about eight point 18,600,000,000 in revenue.

它的现金消耗大约是140亿美元。

It burned about 14,000,000,000.

所以净亏损大概是58亿美元。

So that's three three five.

今年它的收入预计会翻一倍以上。

Its revenue is expected to more than double this year.

这在一定程度上得益于埃隆在Anthropic的新盟友。

That's in part thanks to Elon's new friends at Anthropic and Okay.

他们正在租用Colossus的算力。

They're renting out Colossus compute.

但收入预计会达到约380亿美元。

But revenue is expected to go to about 38,000,000,000.

现金消耗也会翻倍以上，达到约300亿美元。

Cash burn also more than doubling to about 30,000,000,000.

我们再跳到十年末，或者下一个十年的开端，也就是2030年。

And then let's fast forward to the end of the decade or to the start of the next decade in 2030.

到那时，收入预计会达到4740亿美元，比去年的180亿美元高出不少。

Revenue is expected to be 474,000,000,000, so up from 18,000,000,000 this past year.

这个增幅可不小。

So that's quite the jump.

而在那段时间里，预计他们会烧掉3500亿美元。

And then over that time period, they're expected to burn $350,000,000,000.

这主要源于人工智能带来的资本支出。

That that's largely from CapEx due to AI.

包括在太空中建设数据中心。

That's from data centers in space.

还有TerraFab的投入。

That's from TerraFab.

所以，这些数字确实非常庞大。

So, yeah, the numbers are really big.

他们IPO打算筹措的750亿美元，加上预计到2030年要烧掉的3500亿美元，这些数字在模型里有体现吗？

So 75,000,000,000 of what they're hoping to raise in the IPO, the $350,000,000,000 that they are slated or forecasted to burn through 2030, did the models have any indication in there?

我的意思是，除了这750亿，之后几年他们还打算再筹多少？

I mean, beyond the 75,000,000,000, how much they might seek to raise then in the years after?

他们不可能一直融到钱的。

I mean, they're not gonna be able to raise No.

并没有这么细致的建模。

There's not that there's not that level of detailed modeling.

咱们得说清楚一点。

And, like, let's be clear.

这些数字其实隔了好几层，你得记住。

The like, these are coming from there's, like, multiple steps removed here, remember.

是公司自己在预测他们觉得会发生什么。

Like, it's the company is forecasting what they think are gonna happen.

然后银行拿这些预测当参考，再做出自己的判断。

The banks then picking those cues and making their own assumptions about what's going to happen.

然后银行再口头告诉投资者。

And then the banks telling the investors verbally.

这些数字可不是印在传单上，满华尔街到处发的那种。

These are not like these are not numbers handed out on a page across Wall Street leafleted around.

这些都是通过电话一对一传达的。

These are these are like phone calls.

所以，你懂的，对这些数字得打点折扣来看。

And so, you know, take them with with sort of that sort of grain of salt, I suppose.

而且，像他们常说的，市场上一般不会这么具体、这么详细。

But they're not usually that level of specificity or or color as they as they say on the street.

对。

Right.

科里，我想问问你这周另一个新闻。

Cory, I want to ask you about another headline this week.

标普500宣布，不会加速让SpaceX加入指数。

So the S and P 500 came out and said that they will not fast track the process for SpaceX to join the index.

这个结果让你感到意外吗？

Was this a surprise to you?

有一点吧。

A little bit.

主要是因为之前好像有一股洪流，好多指数提供商都在说，要让这些新上市的大型公司加入他们的指数。

Only because it seemed like there had been this freight train of all these index providers saying, we're going to allow, you know, sort of these newly listed huge companies into our index.

你最明显看到的是纳斯达克100指数，它本身就是纳斯达克交易所旗下的，而SpaceX也正是在纳斯达克上市的。

You know, you've seen most notably, the first one to do it was the Nasdaq one hundred, which is obviously part of Nasdaq, which is the exchange that SpaceX is listing their shares on.

所以，没人真正写过相关报道，也没人能证明纳斯达克修改了规则来让SpaceX上市。

And so there's, a clear no no one sort of has, like no one's written the story or proven that, like, Nasdaq changed their rules to allow SpaceX in to get the listing.

咱们得把这一点说清楚。

So let's just be clear about this.

他们当然有自己的理由，但这个决定还是让人觉得有点奇怪。

They have their own rationale, but people raised their eyebrow at that decision.

结果呢，他们还真改了规则，SpaceX现在确实在纳斯达克上市了。

And lo and behold, they did change the rules, and SpaceX is listing on NASDAQ.

标普一直被认为更守规矩、更保守一些。

The S and P has always been seen as a little bit more, I don't know, by the book conservative.

他们改变规则的商业动力没那么强。

They have a little bit less of a commercial incentive to change the rules.

我从网上看到，也跟华尔街的一些人聊过，不少人对取消IPO后那段等待期、不再要求公司达到盈利门槛这些做法表示反对。

And from what I've been noticing online and also from talking to folks on Wall Street, there's been a bit more pushback on this idea of getting rid of sort of various rules around seasoning periods after an IPO to, you know, sort of and also not requiring them to hit any kind of level of profitability.

所以最近确实有不少反对的声音。

And so there's been a bit of a pushback.

我们并不清楚标普到底为什么做出这个决定。

And so we don't have visibility into why you know, exactly why S and P sort of did this.

但

But

那这件事会带来什么影响呢？

What about the implications of this, though?

也就是说，这件事为什么会发生，现在还不清楚。

So, I mean, the reason it happened is unclear.

但话说回来，从长远看，SpaceX 肯定能成功，可从投资者接受度和初期营销的角度来看，这会带来什么影响呢？

But, you know, now looking ahead, it's not SpaceX will never make it in, but in terms of investor uptake, even just marketing just at the outset, what are the implications for it?

这意味着在 IPO 之后的几个月里，当内部人士、前员工和早期投资者终于可以出售手里的股票时，不会再有那种自动涌来的被动买盘来不管价格如何都接盘了。

It means they won't In the months ahead after the IPO, when there is going to be a significant unlock of insider shares available for sale, when employees, former employees, investors are are finally gonna be able to sell, there won't be the sort of wall of automatic or passive demand to scoop up those shares at whatever price.

必须有更多主动的基金经理或者个人投资者自己做出判断，觉得这股票值这个价，才会出手买入。

There's going to have to be more active managers or active retail investors making the decision themselves to buy the shares and saying this is a good deal.

这不再是像 ETF 那样，只要指数纳入了，就自动跟着买那么简单。

It's not just going to be an automatic decision that sort of an ETF or an an, you know, does because the index then owns it.

所以这影响不小，而标普正是这里面最关键的角色。

And so that that's that's pretty big, and S and P is obviously the big kahuna there.

没错。

Right.

他们还得仔细看看那些预测数据，比如到 2030 年烧掉三千五百亿美元的现金。

And and they'd have to look at those projections, dollars $350,000,000,000 in burn through 2030.

他们得自己权衡，心里得有个数。

They'd have to make their own decisions saying, You know what?

我愿意投资这个项目。

I'm willing to invest in that.

这确实是个值得观察的有趣局面。

It is certainly an interesting dynamic to watch.

科里，谢谢你今天来做客。

Cory, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是科里·温伯格，我们《The Information》的财经副总监。

That is Cory Weinberg, our Deputy Bureau Chief of Finance, here at The Information.

关于SpaceX的IPO，我还想深入聊聊xAI。

For more coverage on the SpaceX IPO, I want to go deeper on xAI.

我们的记者格蕾丝·凯今天早上发了一篇报道，详细分析了xAI和Anthropic之间复杂的关系。

The information's Elon Musk reporter Grace Kay has a story out this morning unpacking the complicated dynamics between xAI and Anthropic.

她掌握了不少内部细节，讲得非常精彩。

She has some great inside details on their relationship.

为了帮大家更好地理解这些内容，我请来联合执行主编马丁·皮尔斯，来做本期《编辑精选》的嘉宾。

And to put those details in broader context, I want to bring on co executive editor Martin Peers for this week's edition of The Editor's Cut.

马丁，欢迎再次做客节目。

Martin, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你今天能来。

It's great to have you here.

嗨，阿卡什。

Hey, Akash.

你最近怎么样？

How are you?

我挺好的。

I'm doing well.

我们知道Anthropic正在向xAI租用算力。

So we know that Anthropic is renting compute from xAI.

除了这个，格蕾丝的报道还揭示了这两家公司之间有哪些其他关系？

What else did we find out from Grace's reporting about the relationship between these two companies?

她的报道透露，过去一年左右，xAI一直在玩捉迷藏，偷偷利用Anthropic的AI来训练自己的模型，而Anthropic则尝试了各种办法来阻止这种行为。

Well, her story kind of revealed how over the last year or so, xAI has played this kind of cat and mouse game where they were tapping into Anthropic's AI to help develop their own models and how Anthropic tried various things to cut off people who were doing that.

xAI还尝试了各种办法绕开限制，比如让员工用个人账号登录Anthropic的系统。

And xAI tried various ways to get around that including by having their staff access Anthropic through personal accounts.

所以这个故事其实很好地提醒了我们，xAI的AI研发一团乱。

So I think what the story is a really good reminder of is that xAI's AI development is a mess.

我们都清楚，埃隆已经把当初招进xAI的大多数人给开除了。

I mean, we all know that Elon has fired most of the people who he originally hired at xAI.

他总是定下不切实际的截止日期，一旦没完成，就直接裁员。

He has a tendency to set unrealistic deadlines and when they're not met, he just fires people.

这之所以特别重要，是因为SpaceX对投资者说，他们预计到2030年，AI业务将占到总收入的三分之二——我记得科里昨晚的报道就是这么说的。

And why this is hugely important is that SpaceX, in what they are telling investors, they are projecting that AI will make up, I think in Cory's story last night, two thirds of the projected revenue that they will earn by 2030.

可他们的AI业务现在根本就是一团糟。

And yet their AI business is a mess.

目前，AI部门真正能赚到的钱，其实主要来自X平台，而X根本不是AI服务。

Certainly right now, the only revenue they really have in the AI unit is actually coming from X, which is a non AI service.

主要是广告收入。

It's mostly advertising.

所以如果你是冲着AI概念投资SpaceX，那得再好好想想。

So if you're investing in SpaceX for its AI angle, think again.

我们先回头看看格蕾丝的报道。

So let's go back to Grace's story for a second.

Anthropic切断xAI使用其工具，这事儿其实不奇怪，毕竟两家是竞争对手，都是AI实验室。

So this idea that Anthropic is cutting off access to xAI from using its tools, I mean, are rivals, they're two competing AI labs.

这种事常见吗？

Is that common?

我在想云服务提供商的情况。

I mean, I'm thinking about cloud service providers.

是的。

Yeah.

不只是xAI，他们也切断了OpenAI的访问权限。

It's not only xAI, they also cut off OpenAI.

说实话，AI实验室之间互相依赖对方的模型来推进研发，这其实挺普遍的。

I mean, think it's fairly common for AI labs to rely on other people's AI to help within the development of models.

Anthropic 似乎就是想阻止别人这么做。

It just seems that Anthropic tried to cut off people doing it.

埃隆·马斯克在法庭上承认，xAI 确实这么干过。

And Elon Musk has admitted under oath that xAI has done this.

他提到过他们用过 OpenAI 的技术，但格蕾丝的报道详细说明了他们也用了 Anthropic 的。

Think he talked about how they used OpenAI's tech, but Grace's reporting details how they were also using Anthropic.

而且在 xAI 觉得自己有多余的算力、干脆租给 Anthropic 之前，这一切都发生了。

And all that was I think before xAI decided that they had all this spare computing capacity, they might as well rent it out to Anthropic.

所以这个租赁交易的讽刺之处就在这儿。

So that is the irony of that rental deal.

对。

Right.

但你想啊，回顾历次技术浪潮，以前有没有出现过类似的情况——竞争对手偷偷用对方的技术，后来又被切断了访问权限？

But I guess, I mean, if you just think about all the other waves of technology innovation, have we seen a version of this story before where rivals use each other's technology without them knowing it, cut off access?

我可能也在想那些企业之间的数据大战。

And I'm maybe thinking about the corporate data wars too.

这种竞争关系正在上演。

There's that rivalry playing out.

竞争对手之间互相封锁工具，这种情况常见吗？

Is this a common thing that happens with rivals, cutting off access to each other's tools?

就像你提到的数据大战，这是最近最典型的例子——软件公司试图阻止客户把它们应用里的数据用到其他竞争性应用里。

Well, mean, the data wars, as you mentioned, is the best recent example of that where software firms tried to stop their customers from getting access to data stored in their apps because the customers wanted to use it in other apps that competed with them.

但我认为，科技公司互相借用技术来发展自身，这种事由来已久。

But I think there's a long history of tech firms using other companies' tech to develop their own.

最著名的例子可能是苹果借鉴了施乐的技术，来打造自己最初的用户界面。

I think the most famous example might be Apple using Xerox's technology to develop its original user interface.

说到底，人们本来就是站在彼此的成果上往前走的。

So it's not, I mean I think people build on each other's technology.

关键在于，xAI其实根本没能力独立研发自己的模型，主要是因为埃隆没耐心让研究人员慢慢搞。

The real point here is that xAI isn't really in a position to be competitive in developing its own models largely because Elon doesn't have the patience to allow researchers to do the work.

他定下截止日期，团队完不成，他就把人开掉。

He sets these deadlines, they don't meet the deadlines and he fires them.

我的意思是，这在OpenAI对埃隆的庭审中也提到过，格雷格·布罗克曼当时指出，埃隆在OpenAI的时候，根本没耐心，也缺乏长期投入开发AI技术所需的沉稳心态。

I mean this came up during the OpenAI Elon trial where I think Greg Brockman made the point that when Elon was at OpenAI, he didn't have the patience and he didn't have the temperament for the long times that it takes to develop AI technology.

这对关注SpaceX上市的人特别重要，因为他们把自己包装成一家AI公司。

This is hugely important for people who are looking at the SpaceX IPO because they are pitching themselves as an AI firm.

如果你真觉得埃隆·马斯克能搞出什么新的AI技术，那恐怕得再想想了。

If you think Elon Musk is going to develop new AI, then maybe you should think again.

不过，格蕾丝报道里另一个有趣的细节，是Cursor和xAI的整合。

Now, the other interesting detail in Grace's story was the Cursor integration here with xAI.

听起来他们越来越依赖Cursor来寻找解决方案，甚至还有消息称，Cursor的员工最近在办公室待的时间也变多了。

It sounds like they are increasingly looking to Cursor for maybe some of the answers here, and there was even the detail that Cursor staff are spending more time at the office even.

对。

Right.

这其实我们之前就报道过，埃隆把Cursor的人请来跟xAI的工程师交流，结果没过多久，他就把一众xAI工程师全给开了。

And that's something I think we've actually reported before that Elon brought in the cursor people to talk to xAI engineers and shortly after that, they fired all these xAI engineers.

所以我觉得这跟我说的是一回事——他对研发进度的焦虑，最终就表现为动不动开除人，这招在特斯拉可能管用，但……

So I think it's just more of the same as what I'm talking about is that his frustration with the rate of development manifests itself by him just firing people, which maybe that works for Tesla.

这招在推特上可完全行不通，他把那家公司搞得一团糟，后来又通过把推特并入xAI，再把xAI并入SpaceX来掩盖这一切。

It certainly did not work at Twitter where he basically destroyed that business and he's hidden that by merging it into xAI and now merging xAI into SpaceX.

事情就是这样了。

You know, that is it.

马丁，我想跟你聊聊本周新闻里的另一个话题。

Martin, I want to ask you about another topic that was in the news this week.

这周好几家网络安全公司都公布了财报。

So we had a bunch of cybersecurity companies reporting earnings.

你在简报里写过这个事。

You wrote about it in your briefing.

比如Netskope。

We had Netskope.

我们当然请了他们的CEO来节目里聊过。

We of course had the CEO on the show.

还有CrowdStrike。

We had CrowdStrike.

我觉得帕洛阿尔托网络公司可能也发布了财报。

I believe Palo Alto Networks may have also reported.

Zscaler 是上周公布的，我记得。

Zscaler was last week, I believe.

看到这些公司财报陆续公布，你最大的感受是什么？

What was your big takeaway here from seeing all these earnings play out?

我知道你清楚这一点，萨尔卡什，因为你昨天刚采访过 Netskope 的 CEO。

Well, I know you're aware of this, Sarkash, because you talked to the Netscopes CEO about it yesterday.

关键在于，这些安全领域的高管都很高兴我们正迈向人工智能，因为 AI 会让黑客更容易渗透企业数据系统，威胁所有人数据安全，甚至可能直接盗走银行账户里的钱。

The takeaway is that these type of security executives love the fact that we're moving into AI because AI is going to allow hackers to much more easily infiltrate corporate data systems and threaten everyone's data and maybe steal the money out of their bank account.

有些人不喜欢听我说这些，因为他们根本不愿相信这种事真会发生，但我告诉你，它一定会发生。

One likes me talking about that because they don't really want to believe that could happen, but believe me, it will.

所以安全行业的人都觉得这是个绝佳的机会，他们最近聊的全是这个。

And so the security people think this is a great opportunity and that's what they've all been talking about.

我这周早些时候写的一篇文章里提到过，如果真像他们说的这样，那为什么他们的收入增长反而没加快呢？

A point I was making in a column earlier in the week was, well, if that's happening, why is their revenue growth not speeding up?

事实上，对许多公司来说，增长反而在放缓。

In fact, for many companies it's actually slowing down.

答案可能是，这种增长还没到来。

The answer might be that it's still to come.

他们现在正陆续跟各家公司在谈AI和网络安全的前景。

They're all meeting with companies now to talk about mythos and AI.

也许明年我们就能看到更大的增长了。

So maybe we'll see more growth in the next year.

说不定企业会减少在某些传统网络安全技术上的投入，转而转向AI防御方案。

Maybe what will happen is that businesses will cut back on spending on some kinds of cyber tech and replace it with AI defense.

目前还说不准。

We just don't know.

但投资者显然非常乐观。

But investors certainly are very hopeful.

今年到目前为止，CrowdStrike和Palo Alto的股价已经涨了50%，但收入端的实际影响还没那么明显。

They've lifted the stocks of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto by 50% so far this year, and yet so far the impact on revenue is not that great.

没错。

Right.

奈茨科普的首席执行官跟我们说，他们现在正在培训团队。

Well, the point that the Netskope CEO made to us is he said, We're just training our teams.

马上就要来了。

It's coming.

我们正在培训。

We're training.

我跟他说的是，增长速度其实还在放缓。

The point that I made back to him was, It's still decelerating.

我听了那场采访，他明显避开了问题，这正是所有CEO面对现实时的惯用手法。

I listened to the interview and he definitely avoided answering the question, which is what all CEOs do when they are confronted by reality.

没错。

Right.

我们得等着看预测会怎样，但这确实值得密切关注。

And so we'll have to see how the forecasts come, but it's certainly something to watch.

马丁，非常感谢你来参加节目。

Martin, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是马丁·皮尔斯，我们《信息》杂志的联合执行主编。

That is Martin Peers, our co executive editor here at The Information.

《信息》独家报道，数据中心开发商Switch正在洽谈融资，估值至少达到五千亿美元，这项报道由我的同事安妮莎·加尔迪齐和瓦莉塔·波伊完成。

The Information has exclusive reporting that data center developer Switch is in talks to raise billions of dollars at evaluation of at least $50,000,000,000 My colleagues, Anissa Gardizi and Valita Poe, reported that story.

接下来，我请我们的旧金山分局主管迪恩来为大家详细解读一下。

I want to bring on our San Francisco bureau chief, Dean, to break it all down.

杰森，欢迎再次回到节目。

Jason, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你又回来了。

It's great to have you back.

Switch这家数据中心公司到底是做什么的？

What is Switch, the data center company?

就是这么回事。

Are just that.

他们是一家老牌的数据中心公司，如今自然跟人工智能紧密相关。

They're a data center company that's been around for quite a while, and obviously these days all about AI.

他们是最大的那种吗？是帮那些超大规模云服务商建数据中心的？规模到底有多大？

Are they one of the biggest are they helping the big hyperscalers develop data centers or how big are they?

他们规模不小，但还没到超大规模云服务商那个级别，不过他们有五个站点。

They're sizable, but no, they're not in the hyperscaler realm, although they have five locations.

他们最早在内华达州创立，那边是他们的大本营。

They're big in in in Nevada where they were founded.

他们在密歇根州也有业务。

They're also in Michigan.

亚特兰大也有他们的据点。

They're in Atlanta.

得克萨斯州也有一处。

They're in Texas.

当然，他们现在正努力扩张，所以才想筹集更多资金。

And of course, they are trying to grow, which is why they, want to raise more money.

那我们知不知道他们具体想筹多少钱？

So do we know how much money exactly they're looking to raise?

估计是几十亿美元，但具体数目还不清楚。

Looking at billions of dollars, we don't know exactly how much.

就像妮萨和瓦莉塔报道的那样，这些计划的细节还没定下来。

And, you know, as, Nissa and Valita reported, the the details of the plans are are are not finalized.

现在还都是变动中的，事情随时可能有变化。

They're still in flux, so things could change.

但至少是几十亿美元，估值超过五百亿美元。

But but billions of dollars at a valuation above 50,000,000,000.

而且据报导，有几家大公司正在考虑投资。

But and but there are some big names who who they reported are are considering investing.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

他们正在和一批投资者洽谈，其中包括一些知名私募股权公司，比如KKR和布鲁克菲尔德。

They're talking to a range of investors, but including PE firms with big names among them, KKR and Brookfield.

这些可是投资界响当当的角色。

So, you know, those are obviously serious players in the investment world.

具体计划还没完全明朗，但大概率这笔钱会用来新建更多数据中心，同时扩建现有的。

And, yeah, the the it's not entirely clear what the the specific plans are, but presumably that money will be funneled into building more data centers and expanding the ones they have.

对。

Right.

我觉得，这些数据中心公司很容易把它们看成只是又一个普通的数据中心。

So look, I think it's easy for these data center companies to sort of think of them as just another data center.

但如果我们把视野放宽一点，我想问问你，关于产能过剩这个风险——这是所有数据中心公司都面临的难题。

But I mean, if we just open the aperture a little bit, I want to ask you about this risk of overcapacity, which is something that all these data center companies face.

去年General Catalyst的CEO马特内贾上过节目，他说可能会有麻烦。

Hey, Matheneja, the CEO of General Catalyst, was on the show last year, and he said, There might be some pain.

有些公司会吃亏。

Some companies will suffer.

说到数据中心公司，它们是不是都签了长期合同？如果现在签了，接下来三年就稳了？

When you think of the data center companies, is it the case that they lock in these long term contracts and if you lock them in now, you're sitting pretty for the next three years?

还是说，这种商业模式是项目一启动，一年后客户随时可能说：算了，我们不建了？

Or is it the type of business model where you start the project and then it could be interrupted in a year if the customer says, Hey, we don't actually want to build it down the line?

这是个好问题。

I mean, it's a great question.

我们不清楚它们和客户之间具体的财务协议，但我想说，如果AI数据中心领域真的进入供过于求的阶段，恐怕没人能完全置身事外。

I think we don't know the details of their financial agreements with their customers, but I would venture to say that if we switch into, sorry, no pun intended, a period of overcapacity in, AI data center worlds, I don't think anybody is gonna be fully insulated from that.

我们现在看到的这一切，包括这个现象，是一种疯狂加速的氛围——从全球最大的公司，到AI数据中心领域那些小规模的参与者，都在拼命建产能、卖产能，甚至卖给超大规模云服务商，因为眼下需求实在太大了。

You know, we're just the whole the whole thing we're seeing right now, and this is a part of it, is an incredible go go go mentality that stretches from the biggest companies in the world to, smaller niche players in the AI data center world that are able to build capacity and and sell it, including to the hyperscalers because there's just so much demand right now.

如果这种情况变了，人们肯定会重新审视合同。那些不在核心圈、处在边缘位置的公司，风险会更大。

If that changes, yeah, I think people reexamine contracts and, you know, companies that are sort of not front center in the in the sense of the hyperscalers, but a little off further toward the margins will be will be at some risk.

Switch以前不也是上市公司吗？

Now Switch was once a public company itself, right?

没错。

That's right.

对。

Yeah.

他们已经存在很久了。

They've been around for a long time.

这是一家非常成熟的公司。

This is a very established company.

他们成立于2000年。

They were founded in 2000.

他们是在2017年左右上市的，然后在2022年被私有化了。

They went public, I think, in 2017, and then they were taken private in 2022.

私有化时的估值达到了110亿美元，包括债务在内。

They were taken private, at a valuation of $11,000,000,000, including debt.

所以他们的估值有了相当大的增长。

So they're looking at quite an increase in in the valuation.

过去几年里，他们还通过发行债券筹集了大量资金。

They've also raised a lot of money from debt issuance, in in the past, several years.

去年夏天，他们表示自2024年以来已经筹集了200亿美元，之后又宣布了多笔新的债券发行。

Last summer, they said they had raised $20,000,000,000 just since 2024, and they've announced a bunch of additional debt issuance since then.

所以，他们现在谈的这个股权交易，远不是他们筹钱投资的唯一方式。

So, you know, this this this this equity, deal that they're talking about is far from the only way that they've been raising cash to invest.

如果将来有需要，他们也可能再次上市。

And maybe they might go public in the future as well if they if they need to.

没错。

That's right.

对。

Yeah.

据《领袖报》报道，这可能为他们铺平道路。

And it's in the leader reported that this could set them up.

当然，还有很多不确定因素，但明年就上市也不是没可能。

Obviously, there are lots of caveats and ifs, but for an IPO as soon as next year.

太好了。

Great.

非常感谢你今天来做客。

Well, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是杰森·迪恩，《信息》报旧金山分社的社长。

That is Jason Dean, our San Francisco bureau chief here at The Information.

今天的节目就到这里。

That does it for today's show.

提醒一下，我们每周一到周五上午10点（太平洋时间），下午1点（东部时间）直播。

A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10AM Pacific, 1PM Eastern.

如果错过直播，节目内容可以在theinformation.com、我们的YouTube频道，或者你常用的播客平台收听。

If you can't make it then, episodes are available on theinformation.com, on our YouTube channel, or wherever you get your podcasts.

别忘了在X、Instagram、TikTok和LinkedIn上关注我们。

Make sure to follow us on social media on X, Instagram, TikTok, and LinkedIn.

期待下周一再见。

I'm looking forward to our next show on Monday.

祝你剩下的周五和周末都过得愉快。

Have a great rest of your Friday, and have a great weekend.

那先这样，再见了。

Bye bye for now.