SpaceX’s 74-day IPO Implications for OpenAI, Anthropic, World Cup Ads, Bernie Sanders’ AI Plan

欢迎大家收看Information的TITV节目。

Welcome everyone to the Information's TITV.

我是阿卡什·帕什里卡。

My name is Akash Pasricha.

今天是6月22日，星期一。

It is Monday, June 22.

今天我们首先邀请到雅虎媒体集团总裁瑞安·斯普恩，聊聊他今年对戛纳国际创意节的期待。

We are kicking things off today with a conversation with Ryan Spoon, president of Yahoo Media Group, will cover what he's expecting from Cannes Lions this year.

我们还会谈一谈世界杯。

We'll talk about the World Cup.

也会讨论预测市场。

We'll talk about prediction markets.

接下来，SpaceX首秀表现强劲，那它的IPO又透露出关于OpenAI和Anthropic的什么信号呢？

Next up, SpaceX had a strong debut, but what does its IPO tell us about OpenAI and Anthropic?

稍后我们会深入解读几篇我们近期发布的相关文章。

We will unpack a collection of stories we published around that topic shortly.

说到IPO，The Information独家报道，Kalshi已经与多家银行就可能的上市事宜进行了非正式沟通。

And speaking of IPOs, the information published exclusive reporting that Kalshi has held informal conversations with banks about its potential IPO.

我们稍后会为大家带来更多关于上市时间以及Kalshi财务状况的详细信息。

We'll have more details for you on timing and also Kalshi's financials.

节目最后，我们会关注伯尼·桑德斯提出的一项新提案，这项提案旨在让普通美国人也能分享人工智能热潮的红利。

We're going to wrap the show with a look at a new proposal from Bernie Sanders that would give everyday Americans a stake in the AI boom.

今天这期节目内容很精彩，咱们马上开始。

It's going to be a fun show, so let's get right on into it.

戛纳国际创意节今天正式拉开帷幕。

Cannes Lions ad festival is kicking off today.

目前广告行业正在经历不少变化。

There are a lot of changing tides in advertising right now.

与此同时，世界杯仍在火热进行中。

Meanwhile, the World Cup is still in full swing.

为了帮大家理清这些动态，我们请来了雅虎媒体集团总裁瑞安·斯普恩。

To break down all of this, I want to bring on Ryan Spoon, President of Yahoo Media Group.

Ryan，欢迎来到节目。

Ryan, welcome to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you here.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you for hosting.

是啊，现在总是这么令人兴奋。

Yes, it's an exciting time as always.

你那边现在有不少团队成员在法国，参加戛纳广告节。

So you've got a bunch of your team members in France right now for the Cannes Lions ad festival.

你觉得这周的活动会冒出哪些主要趋势？

I wonder what you think the big themes are that you're expecting to come out of that event this week.

我现在回到美国了，因为体育方面的事情特别忙。

So I'm back in The States as we have it's a very busy time on the sports front.

当然，我们得聊聊世界杯。

Obviously, we'll talk World Cup.

NBA选秀明天就要开始了。

You have the NBA draft twenty four hours away.

在广告方面，我们的核心业务是雅虎，尤其是雅虎体育和雅虎财经。

On the advertising side, we you know, that is the core of our business is Yahoo and certainly is Yahoo Sports and Yahoo Finance.

对我们来说，关键是打造高端体验，把合作伙伴和广告主无缝融入这些内容中——无论是产品、内容还是视频，再结合我们对活跃登录用户的数据洞察。

And for us, it's the mixture of really premium experiences, bringing our partners and advertisers front and center to those experiences, whether it be the product, the content, the video, and then mixing that with data and what we know about our logged in really highly engaged audience.

所以，现在正是接触这群受众的最佳时机。

And so this is the best time of year to be with that audience.

在财务方面，布莱恩·萨西会去现场做采访等工作。

And on our side, on the Brian Sassy will be there for the finance side doing interviews and so forth.

当然，我们的销售负责人和活动团队也会到场。

Obviously, our head of sales and events team and so forth.

体育方面，我们正在全程报道世界杯，明天还会去巴克莱球场跟进NBA选秀。

And then on the sports side, we're covering World Cup, and we are at Barclays tomorrow for the NBA draft and so forth.

总之，我们到处都在跟进。

So doing it everywhere.

我等下再聊世界杯的事。

I wanna get to the World Cup in a second here.

不过，说到现在的广告行业，你看到的情况，从你的角度看，AI在多大程度上改变了广告的玩法？

But, I mean, just if we think about advertising right now and what you're seeing, I wonder to what extent AI is changing the advertising game as you see it from your perspective.

对我来说，AI主要体现在加快交付速度，以及提升体验和产品的创造能力。

So from my perspective, my time with the AI front is really around speed to delivery, better creation of experiences and products.

你几周前刚采访过我们的CEO吉姆，产品才是我们核心的工作。

You talked to Jim, our CEO, just a few weeks ago, and products are the core of what we do.

我们能推进、开发和交付得越多，就能为广告主带来更好的体验。

And the more we can push and build and deliver, that creates better experiences for the advertisers.

所以对我们来说，关键是加快产出速度，提供更多空间，让高端广告能更好地呈现。

And so for us, it's delivering more, delivering faster, and allowing us to create more environments for the premium ads to live.

咱们聊聊世界杯吧。

Let's talk World Cup.

现在正是世界杯最热闹的时候。

So we are in the thick of it.

上周末我刚去过不列颠哥伦比亚省。

I was just in BC over the weekend.

温哥华那边正在比赛。

They had games happening in Vancouver.

太棒了。

Amazing.

就在我们南边，是西雅图。

Just south of us, was Seattle.

我们现在在纽约。

We're in New York right now.

你有纽约，还有新泽西。

You've got New York, New Jersey.

你觉得今年的世界杯，跟上一届相比，在媒体呈现和媒体生态如何利用这个体育盛事方面，有什么不同？

How do you think that this year's World Cup or this World Cup differs from, let's just say, the last World Cup in terms of the media and how the media ecosystem is trying to take advantage of this sporting opportunity.

从美国的角度来看，因为我们就在美国，这届世界杯确实很特别——首先，美国队表现非常突出，开局两场比赛都打得极好，肯定能晋级。

From a very US perspective, because that that's where we're sitting, that's where it's hosted, it's really pretty remarkable in that, first of all, The US is highly relevant as a team, and has had two fantastic, matches to start and will advance.

你还有四个名字，其中三个今天比赛。

You also have four names, three of which play today.

有姆巴佩，有梅西，还有霍兰德。

You have Mbappe, you have Messi, and you have Holland.

他们今天全都上场了。

All play today.

每个人都表现得极其出色。

All were phenomenal.

我觉得他们在揭幕战中三人合起来进了七个球。

I think they scored seven goals between the three in the opening, game.

这些名字今天更受关注，部分是因为MLS和苹果，当然还有梅西的成就。

And those names are way more relevant today in part because of MLS and Apple, and obviously what Messi's done.

但这项运动的发展真的太快了。

But that the sport has grown so much.

球迷群体也壮大了很多。

The fandom has grown so much.

而现在在美国本土，美国男足又如此有竞争力，这真的非同寻常。

And now to do it in The States while the US men's team is so, competitive, is really remarkable.

我们一直以来的做法都很一致：和合作伙伴共同打造赛事内容，围绕赛事构建体验，推动球迷热情，并通过内容覆盖来实现。

And our approach to this has been very consistent with the way that we cover, all sports, to do that with partners, to build games around it, to drive that fandom, and to do it with coverage.

考虑到媒体环境的变化，这次世界杯雅虎和上一届相比，有哪些不同的做法？

What have you done differently for this World Cup at Yahoo compared to last one, given the way the media landscape has changed?

我们很幸运，和福克斯有着良好的合作关系，而球迷竞猜一直是我们体育板块的核心业务。

So we, very fortunate to, have a great relationship with Fox, and we built a fan fantasy is core to what we do across the sports side.

这不仅是雅虎体育的特色，更是它历史悠久的支柱之一。

That is a real leadership, and historical part of of Yahoo Sports.

因此，我们和福克斯联手推出了竞猜游戏，既支持他们的转播，也把我们的球迷吸引过去。

And so we launched fantasy games with Fox in conjunction to obviously support their broadcasting and bring our fans to that.

和以往几年相比，视频现在成了我们业务中至关重要的一部分。

And then very different to where we've been in prior years, video is really core to what we do.

光是体育内容，我们每周就提供超过六十小时的直播。

We have over sixty hours of live video a week in sports alone.

你看看泰勒·特韦尔曼、库利根斯，还有那两位罗比，都是这样。

And you see that with Taylor Twellman, the Kooligans, the two Robbies.

我们有非常棒的直播节目，还有配套的周边节目来做全方位报道。

We have really fantastic live shows and then surround shows to do the coverage.

你们有在做预测市场相关的项目吗？

Are you doing anything with with prediction markets at all?

虽然不是专门针对足球，但我们确实和Polymarket在体育和金融领域一直有合作。

We not specific to soccer, but we obviously have had relationships and have relationship with Polymarket across sports and finance.

Kalshi现在已经融入了我们的‘未加冕’体验和内容中。

Kalshi is now part of our, uncrowned experience and coverage.

‘未加冕’是我们主打综合格斗和搏击内容的平台，由阿里尔·赫尔瓦尼负责。

So uncrowned is our MMA, and combat destination led by Ariel Helwani.

如果你看过UFC 250的赛前赛后报道，就会发现Kalshi已经融入其中了。

So if you would have watched the UFC two fifty coverage pre, post, and so forth, Kalshi would be part of that.

明白了。

Got it.

所以对于不太了解的人，他们能在雅虎平台上看到一些Polymarket和Kalshi的预测市场内容吗？

And so for people who aren't familiar with that, but basically people can see some of the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets on the Yahoo platform?

从实际操作上来说，这看起来是什么样子的？

What does that look like tactically?

我坚信，无论你是选择在体育上投注还是做预测，这都对理解比赛结果的叙事至关重要。

So I am a big believer that whether you choose to bet in sports or predict in sports, it is important to the narrative of outcomes.

了解热门人选、赔率变化、预测走势等等，是体育迷体验中非常关键的一部分。

Understanding favorites, movement, projections, and so forth is a very important part of the sports fan experience.

我们长期以来一直和BetMGM保持着紧密合作。

We've historically had a very long standing relationship with BetMGM.

不过，随着这项合作在今年早些时候到期，我们现在正拓展到其他领域。

And as that has as we've now opened up beyond that, that expired, this year, a couple months ago.

我们现在是根据不同领域，分别和不同的供应商与合作伙伴对接。

We're now working with different providers and partners, vertical by vertical.

比如在Ariel Helwani主导的MMA和Uncrowned板块，他们会结合Kalshi提供的预测数据，讨论比赛结果和走势。

So, yes, you will see, in the for instance, in the UFC side with Ariel Helwani and the uncrowned side, they will talk about outcomes and project projections based on those numbers provided in that case by Kalshi in the prediction markets.

比如今天法国队的比赛，平台也会显示他们有多大的优势。

But you will also see, for instance, providers for the France matchup today to show just how dramatically they are a favorite.

举个例子，他们被看好赢两个半球，这只是个背景参考。

For instance, they're favored by two and a half goals, just for context.

对。

Right.

说到预测，我想知道你对体育媒体未来一两年会怎么变化有什么看法？

I mean, speaking of predictions, I wonder what predictions you might have about how sports media might change in the next year or two.

你觉得预测市场会更深入地融入体育媒体吗？

Do you see prediction markets getting into sports media a little bit more seriously?

我在想Robinhood这家公司。

I'm thinking about Robinhood.

Robinhood已经推出了自己的媒体业务。

Robinhood, they launched their own media arm.

不过最近有消息说，他们打算关闭这项业务。

Now there's reports that they're to wind it down.

但话说回来，你觉得预测市场未来会成为体育媒体或其他预测内容的核心平台吗？

But I mean, do you see prediction markets being a central home for sports media or any other predictions going forward?

你看，五年前我们就聊过同样的话题，这种讨论在我以前工作的时候早就存在了。

Look, you and I had had this same conversation five years ago, this exact same discussion could have existed around and I took a prior life.

我之前在BetMGM工作。

I worked at BetMGM.

这种讨论在体育博彩圈里早就出现过了。

This same conversation could have existed within the the sports, betting space.

对吧？

Right?

那时候这些讨论就已经在发生了。

These same discussions were there.

说实话，我不确定最终会怎样，顺便说一句，后来这些趋势在不同地方已经慢慢调整了。

I don't know ultimately and by the way, that started to course correct in different places.

我不太清楚它们在媒体领域到底会扮演什么角色。

I don't necessarily know what their role on the media side becomes.

我知道我们的定位是什么。

I know what our role is.

我认为这包括与他们所有人建立合作伙伴关系。

And I think it includes working with them all as partners.

但在我看来，媒体报道的核心始终是准确性和可信度，需要强大的新闻团队、合作关系、核实机制等等。

But I think very, very core to reporting in media is accuracy, trust, the need to have robust news desks and partnerships and verification and so forth.

这一点我们非常重视。

And that's something we take very seriously.

如果你只是浅尝辄止，光靠经验去核实信息，其实很难做到这一点。

And I think that's hard to do if you just dabble in it as someone who's been around be able to verify that as well.

没错。

Right.

很好。

Well, great.

瑞安，谢谢你今天来参加对话。

Ryan, I want thank you for coming on.

这位是雅虎媒体集团总裁瑞安·斯普恩，正在TITV做客。

That is Ryan Spoon, president of Yahoo Media Group, here on TITV.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

SpaceX作为上市公司首周表现强劲，但我们现在更关注它的IPO过程能给我们什么启示，关于OpenAI和Anthropic何时以及如何上市。

SpaceX had a strong run-in its first week as a public company, but now we are focused on what its IPO process tells us about when and how OpenAI and Anthropic will go public.

我的同事科里·温伯格联系了他的消息源，想找出这个问题的答案。

My colleague, Cory Weinberg, went out to his sources to find answers to that question.

我想请他来为大家详细分析一下。

I want to bring him on to break it all down.

科里，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Cory, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你今天能来。

It's great to have you here.

早上好，阿卡什。

Good morning, Akash.

所以，科里，你上周末和今天发了几篇报道，其中第一篇提到，SpaceX从提交保密招股书到正式上市，只用了74天。

So, Cory, you put out a couple stories over the weekend and today, the first of which highlighted the fact that SpaceX took seventy four days to go public from the time that it filed its confidential prospectus to when it actually listed.

74天。

Seventy four days.

你给我们分析一下这个时间意味着什么。

Put that into context for us.

这算快吗？

Is that fast?

在我所了解的大型科技公司IPO中，这是最快的，考虑到这笔交易规模这么大、结构这么复杂，就更不简单了。

That was the fastest that I could find among a large tech IPO, which is notable just given how large and complicated this deal was.

一般来说，一家公司从提交保密招股书到正式上市，要花三到四个月。

So a typical IPO takes anywhere from three to four months from confidential filing to actual listing date.

而SpaceX只用了两个半月，总共74天，从提交保密文件到完成上市。

SpaceX took about two and a half, seventy four days in total from actually going from confidential filing to to the IPO date.

整个过程简直是一气呵成。

And and so this was this was rapid fire.

那为什么这么快呢？

And why was it so fast?

IPO的过程基本上分为两个阶段。

There's two legs of the journey for an IPO essentially.

两个主要阶段。

Two primary two primary legs.

第一个阶段是公司提交文件后，等待监管机构反馈的时期。

One is the period where the company is getting comments back from regulators after they submit their filing.

这个阶段通常要几周，甚至可能好几个月。

That's a that's usually weeks, you know, potentially even months.

但SpaceX在这部分处理得非常快。

That was very fast for SpaceX.

第二个阶段是公司跑路演，向投资者介绍交易细节和公司情况。

And then there's the period where the company is meeting with investors, explaining the deal, explaining the company on the roadshow.

这个阶段通常至少需要几周时间。

That usually takes at least a couple weeks.

SpaceX 把这部分时间缩短了不少。

SpaceX shaved some time off of that.

所以你看，这两阶段的时间，他们每一段都砍掉了一大块。

So you have this combination of of, you know, sort of these two legs of the journey, you know, them shaving off a good chunk of it from from each.

明白了。

Okay.

我一直在想，说到这个速度，到底有多少是得益于当前的政府呢？

I wonder, as you think about the speed at all, I mean, how much of this is the current administration that we're in?

你在前面的故事里稍微提过这一点。

You talked a little bit about it in the story.

他们明显想加快进程，希望这些公司尽快上市。

I mean, they seem to want to expedite things, want to get these companies out to market.

你怎么看这个情况？

What do you make of that?

是的，这一届政府确实在积极推动股权资本市场上的资本形成。

Yeah, this administration is definitely trying to essentially focus on capital formation for the equity capital markets.

因为IPO是其中很重要的一部分。

And because IPOs are a big part of that.

所以，我之前提到的IPO旅程第一阶段——也就是监管那部分，我觉得SEC现在确实有明确的导向，就是别老拿一些问题去为难公司，比如你这个披露到底什么意思，那个术语又是指什么之类的。

So, you know, that first leg of the IPO journey that I talked about, that that kind of regulatory piece of it, yeah, I think there's essentially a mandate within the SEC to, you know, sort of not hammer companies over the head with comments about, you know, what did you mean, you know, when you disclose this deal, or what did you mean by this term or whatever.

所以，这确实是关键的一环。

So, you know, that that is definitely a piece of it.

这对其他正在考虑上市的公司来说，也会是一个重要的信号。

And I think that's going to be an important cue for other companies coming down the pike that are considering IPOs.

他们会想，嘿，我们跟SEC打交道可能没那么难了。

You know, they're like, hey, we're we're we might have a kind of easier time with the SEC than we otherwise would.

我们现在还不知道SEC给SpaceX提了哪些意见。

And we don't know right now what comments the SEC gave to SpaceX.

这些内容接下来几周就会公开，对吧？

That'll all come out in the next couple weeks, right?

是的。

Yeah.

很可能是接下来的几周。

Most likely the next couple weeks.

整个过程是公司和证交会之间来回交换反馈意见。

There's a process where all the comment letters kind of go back and forth between the companies and the SEC.

这些反馈通常在公司上市几周后才会公开。

That is unveiled usually a few weeks after a company's IPO.

明白了。

Okay.

你刚才提到，这对其他准备上市的公司，比如OpenAI和Anthropic，意味着什么。

So you talked about now what this queues up for other companies looking to go public, OpenAI and Anthropic.

你还说到，这个过程的时间跨度特别短。

And you talked about how short a time span this was.

那你对这件事怎么看？

So what's your read on things here?

OpenAI和Anthropic是打算今年夏天就上市吗？

Are OpenAI and Anthropic, are they looking to be later this summer IPOs?

他们是在赶着上市吗？

Are they rushing for the gates?

他们想抓住这个机会吗？

Do they wanna take advantage of this window?

你怎么看？

What do you think?

这两家公司本月早些时候已经秘密提交了申请。

Both companies confidentially filed earlier this month.

如果他们能跟上SpaceX的节奏，那很可能在八月中下旬就能上市，你知道的。

And if they essentially are able to match SpaceX's timeline, that would put them each sort of on target to go public as soon as mid to late August, which you know?

各位关注IPO的朋友，暑假计划可以先搁一搁了。

So just cancel your summer plans, all you IPO watchers.

这事儿可能真会很热闹。

It's it could be really fat.

我都忙得团团转了。

Like, I'm I'm scrambling.

我该怎么办呢？

Like, what am I gonna do?

把你的假期全都取消吧，因为

Cancel all your vacation because

现在正是时候。

good time.

没错。

Exactly.

七十四天后就到八月了。

Seventy four days takes you to August.

不对。

No.

这太吓人了。

It's scary.

这次整理的一部分原因，其实是我自己想好好规划一下今年。

That was part of this exercise was, you know, selfishly wanting to plan my year.

不会。

No.

我的意思是，八月份上市这种事情以前根本没发生过，得先说明一下。

I mean, so August IPOs like never happened in August, just so the caveat.

谁说得准呢，也许这些公司会不一样，毕竟他们想怎么做都行。

I mean, who know maybe these companies will be different because, you know, they can do whatever they they want.

他们能融到比上帝还多的钱。

They can raise more money than God.

但说到底，SpaceX的这笔交易已经定了调子。

But, you know, essentially does set the SpaceX deal does set the pace.

而且我觉得OpenAI明确说过，你看。

And and I think OpenAI specifically has said, look.

我们不需要，可能不会马上上市。

We don't need we we might not go public immediately.

所以很明显，这些公司都会给自己留点余地。

So, obviously, the companies give themselves some wiggle room.

你不一定非得上市。

You don't have to go public.

你不用马上行动，可以先向证交会启动流程，然后等等看。

You don't have to you know, you can start the process with the SEC and then wait a little bit.

不过话说回来，这些公司可能还是想抓住这个难得的市场窗口，毕竟现在公众投资者非常愿意投资顶尖的AI公司。

So with that caveat aside, still, know, these companies might want to take advantage of a very, you know, sort of clear market window where public investors are very much willing to fund top AI companies.

明白了。

Okay.

所以不管什么时候上市，你这周发的那篇报道提到，当OpenAI和Anthropic上市时，证交会得面对哪些复杂问题，需要特别关注？

So whenever it does happen, the other story that you published this week looked at when OpenAI, and Anthropic, but when OpenAI goes public, what are the nuances that the SEC could have to grapple with and pay attention to?

你能不能详细说说，OpenAI上市时会有什么特别之处？我们该期待，又不该期待在他们的申报文件里看到什么？

Walk us through some of the complexities here with OpenAI, and what we could and shouldn't expect to see in the filings whenever they become public.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你还记得，我们上周发过一篇相关报道。

So if you recall, we published a story last week.

这篇文章披露了OpenAI第一季度的部分财务数据。

It's sort of unveiling some of OpenAI's financials from the first quarter.

我们仔细研究了这些报表，想提前预判一下，等这份保密IPO申请正式公开时，大家会看到什么内容。

And we've reviewed some of those statements and sort of wanna anticipate what the public is gonna see when this confidential IPO filing drops, you know, in

在

a matter

几个月甚至几周之内。

of months or weeks.

我觉得，你知道的，关于 OpenAI 跟它自己的投资人之间搞出的这一堆交易网络，我们至少已经聊过两年了。

And I think, you know, we've had this we can kind of at least two year long conversation about these sort of web of deals that OpenAI has done with their own investors.

他们简直是在拼命抢着把算力和数据中心容量堆到最大。

They've like sort of really raced to amass as much compute and data center capacity as possible.

你知道的，他们跟微软签了协议，跟英伟达也签了，还跟 Core Weave 和甲骨文签了租赁协议。

You know, they've they've they've done all these deals with Microsoft within with NVIDIA with with they've done leases with with Core Weave and and Oracle.

所以他们手里握着几千亿美元的算力承诺，这事儿已经被反复讨论得都听腻了。

And so they have these, like, hundreds of billions of dollars worth of compute commitments that had been talked about ad nauseam.

我看这些财务报表时最惊讶的是，OpenAI的资产负债表竟然这么轻。通常来说，债务、资本支出、任何与承诺、硬件或责任相关的项目，都会出现在这里。

What was striking to me what looking at these financial statements is just how light OpenAI's balance sheet is, which is usually the place where you would expect to see, you know, sort of debt, capital expenditures, anything related to to commitments or hardware or anything they're on the hook for.

事实上，当人们查看OpenAI的资产负债表时，会发现它的债务非常少。

The reality is when people look at OpenAI's balance sheet, they're going to see very little debt.

租赁负债也几乎看不到。

They're going to see very little lease liability.

这对IPO流程意味着，OpenAI必须在文件的其他部分解释这些采购承诺的具体情况。

And essentially what that means for the IPO process is OpenAI is going to have to explain what these purchase commitments look like elsewhere in the filing.

这一切都符合会计准则，但我认为投资者在评估OpenAI时，得更专业一点，才能搞清楚——他们到底背负了哪些实际责任。

This all follows accounting rules, but I think investors are going to have to be a little bit more sophisticated in OpenAI's case to kind of understand, okay, what are they actually on the hook for?

因为这些责任根本不会体现在资产负债表上。

Because it's not going to be on the balance sheet.

对于那些没怎么读过资产负债表相关披露的人来说，为什么这些数十亿美元的采购承诺完全不会出现在资产负债表上呢？

So for people who haven't spent as much time reading the disclosures that are associated with balance sheets, why is it that all of these multi billion dollar purchasing commitments don't show up in the balance sheet at all.

我的意思是，背后的逻辑到底是什么？

I mean, what's the rationale here?

我的意思是，这确实是标准的会计处理方式。

I mean, is I should definitely say it's standard accounting.

据我所见，他们完全是按照会计准则在操作。

They're following accounting rules from what I could tell.

但这其实牵扯到一个问题：你到底是不是真正拥有、运营或控制了这些数据中心？

And but but it is it ties back to, you know, is this actually a deal where you, you know, own and operate or control or or have taken actual operation of the data center?

如果是那样，才会体现在资产负债表上。

Like then it will hit the balance sheet.

但这类未来的承诺，都会被归到S1文件的其他部分里。

But these kind of future commitments are all going to be piled into other parts of the S1 filing.

里面有个叫‘承诺与或有事项’的章节，很多表外租赁就放在这里。

There's a section called commitments and contingencies where a lot of off balance sheet leases sit.

还有其他章节也可能包含这些内容。

There's other sections where it could could fit.

所以我们还没看到S1文件，但我只是想跟大家说明一下：这些承诺，截至去年底，未来几年累计已经超过6500亿美元了。

So basically, we haven't seen the s one yet, but what I'm trying to just sort of like lay out for people is, you know, sort of these these commitments, which are, as of the end of last year, stood at over $650,000,000,000 worth in the coming years.

你得再仔细看看，才能弄清楚这些项目具体在哪，是不是写得明明白白的。

You're going to have to look a little bit more to kind of see where those might be and whether they're spelled out.

没错。

Right.

你刚才提到的另一点是，认股权证会因为估值规模而带来很多复杂问题。

Now the other thing that you laid out here is you laid out there would be a lot of considerations around the warrants because of the valuation size.

你能详细说说这个吗？

Can you talk about that a bit?

是的。

Yeah.

OpenAI财务报表里另一个特别的地方在利润表上，其中最大的一项支出就是认股权证相关的费用。

The other kind of quirk of OpenAI's financials are in its income statement, where one of the largest sort of line items that hit its bottom line is this huge expense related to warrant charges.

说起来，这还得回到OpenAI那次重组，为的是摆脱它早期赖以运作的非营利组织架构。

You know, going back to, you know, obviously, this restructuring deal OpenAI did to ensure that it would, you know, sort of get out from the original nonprofit structure that guided it in its early days.

他们设立了另一个独立的非营利实体，持有OpenAI的股份。

It created the separate nonprofit that had the stake in OpenAI.

所以这本质上是一个关联方交易，你会看到一笔与OpenAI估值上升密切相关的巨额费用。

And so that's essentially a related party deal where there's going to be this expense charge that you're gonna see that's very large related to OpenAI's rising valuation.

这些认股权证的估值往往很棘手。

Those warrants can be difficult to value.

很多时候，投资者干脆就忽略它了。

You know, oftentimes, you know, that's just like sometimes investors just ignore it.

这是一项非现金费用。

It's a non cash charge.

谁会在意这个呢？

Who cares about it?

但如果不了解的话，别人可能会想弄明白。

But otherwise, people might want to understand it.

综合来看，科里，这家公司将来会上市。

I mean, taking all this together, Cory, you've got this company that will go public.

他们的财务报表。

Their financial statements.

他们并没有刻意隐瞒什么。

They're not hiding anything.

只是你得再深入一点，才能看到完整的状况。

It's just you have to look a little deeper to get the full picture.

从投资者的角度来看，这会不会让风险更高？我还在想，这些交易本身就有很大的不确定性。

I mean, as you think about this from an investor perspective, does it make it a riskier I'm also thinking about the tentative nature of these deals.

如果这些项目不在资产负债表上，那它们是不是更容易变动，从而让公司的业务更加难以预测？

If they're not on the balance sheet, then are they more likely to change, therefore adding to the unpredictability of the nature of the business?

这些信息整体上说明了这家公司目前处于什么状态？

What does all this tell you about the state of the company?

我觉得，希望OpenAI能充分披露他们签署的各类合同，毕竟这可能是有史以来最重要的IPO之一。

I mean, I think, you know, I'm I'm hoping that there will be a lot of disclosure around different contracts that OpenAI has signed so that if if I mean, this is one of the most important IPOs ever.

投资者肯定想搞清楚风险到底在哪里，就算市场需求下滑，OpenAI又在哪些地方必须付款。

You know, I I think investors will want to get a handle on where the risk actually lies and where OpenAI is on the hook to pay even if demand sort of shrivels up.

我觉得这会是一个持续被关注的话题。

I think that's gonna be an ongoing storyline.

同时，你看SpaceX那次IPO，他们跟SEC和投资者打交道的速度多快，咱们得现实点。

At the same time, like, you know, as we saw with this SpaceX IPO and sort of how fast they got through the ringer with with both the SEC and with investors, like, let's be real.

现在这个市场环境下，人们其实没在问那些本该问的尖锐问题。

Like, this is at least a market period right now where people aren't necessarily asking all the tough questions that they should be.

所以，真正深入研究这些文件的投资者，最后会不会反而显得最有远见？

And so, you know, will the fundamental investor who's like really digging through all these filings, like, be the one who, you know, looks smartest in the end?

我不确定。

I don't know.

但我相信，公司多公开信息，对我们大家都有好处。

But I do think what I generally believe is that we all benefit from more disclosure from companies.

这正是我们做记者的意义所在。

That's why we do what we do as journalists.

所以我觉得，投资者也该希望如此。

And so I would think investors would want the same thing.

我得补充一下，我们刚才聊了很多OpenAI，但你在报道里也提到，Anthropic的情况其实非常相似。

And I should say, I mean, we're talking a lot about OpenAI here, but you do point out in the story that Anthropic is in very much a similar situation.

不过说实话，我觉得我的理解是，他们虽然不是小公司，但做的这类复杂交易相对少一些。

Although, I don't know, it feels like my read on it is they've It's no smaller company, but it seems like they've done less or proportionally less of these confusing deals.

说得对。

Well, think like, yeah.

我觉得这些公司的一个关键区别在于，OpenAI 在提前囤积数据中心容量方面比 Anthropic 激进得多。

I mean, I think the shorthand for these companies is OpenAI has been much more aggressive in amassing future data center capacity than Anthropic has.

所以今年当他们的需求突然飙升时，你看到他们有点跟不上了。

And that's why you saw them sort of see you know, sort of struggling with with keeping up with demand as their demand spiked this year.

不过现在他们也开始搞SPV交易、租赁协议了，因为要获取更多算力，他们的交易结构也越来越复杂。

But, yeah, they've started doing kind of SPV deals, lease deals, and their deals are getting more complicated as well, just because they need to amass more compute.

没错。

Right.

很好。

Great.

科里，谢谢你今天来参加访谈。

Well, Cory, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是科里·温伯格，我们《信息》杂志的资深记者。

That is Cory Weinberg, our senior reporter here at The Information.

说到IPO，Kalshi是另一个被大家期待未来会上市的公司。

Speaking of IPOs, Kalshi is another name that people expect one day will go public.

虽然离上市还早，但我的同事杨悦琪已经打听到华尔街为它做准备的一些动向。

It is still a ways out, but my colleague Yueqi Yang caught wind of some of the ways in which Wall Street is preparing for it already.

我想请悦琪来跟我们分享一下她的发现。

I want to bring on Yueqi to share with us what she found.

悦琪，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Yueqi, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你今天能来。

It's great to have you here.

嗨，阿卡什。

Hey, Akash.

咱们聊聊你开头讲的那条独家消息吧。

So let's talk about the scoop that you started off the story with.

你打听到Kalshi最新的营收情况了。

You found out Kalshi's latest revenue.

具体是多少？

What did you find?

根据我接触的消息源，Kalshi的年化营收已经突破了20亿美元，业务增长迅猛，促使Kalshi和几家投行之间开始进行非正式的初步接触，探讨可能的上市计划。

So according to sources that I've talked to, Kalshi has surpassed $2,000,000,000 of revenue, of annualized revenue, and the fast growth of the business has led to informal early talks between Kalshi and investment banks about a potential IPO.

20亿美元。

$2,000,000,000.

增长得有多快？

How fast is that growing?

有具体数据吗？

Do we know?

非常快。

It is fast.

一些Kalshi的风投投资人常说，Kalshi是人工智能领域之外增长最快的初创公司。

Some of the Kalshi's VC investors like to say that Kalshi is the fastest growing startup outside of AI.

你看看交易量的数据，就能发现Kalshi增长得非常快。

If you look at the volume number, it shows that, Kalshi is growing very quickly.

现在的年化收入已经超过20亿美元，是去年秋天Kalshi向投资者披露数字的三倍多。

The annualized revenue now has passed $2,000,000,000 which is three times more than what Kalshi shared with investors just in the fall last year.

就在上个月六月的前两周，Kalshi的交易量超过了100亿美元，而去年同期还不到5亿。

And in the first two weeks of June last month, Kalshi saw more than $10,000,000,000 of trading volume comparing to just less than 500,000,000 trading volume in the same period last year.

天哪。

Wow.

这么多用户增长，难道只是因为大家在赌世界杯吗？

Now all of this traction, is it just people betting on the World Cup?

到底是什么在推动这一切？

Like, what what's driving it?

你想想看。

Look.

现在正是体育的夏天。

It's the summer of sports.

我知道。

I know.

天啊，我们刚请了瑞安·斯普隆做嘉宾。

Mean, god, we just had, you know, Ryan Spoon on.

你知道的，你要做的预测实在太多了。

Know, you've got you've got so many predictions to make.

没错。

Yes.

体育赛事占了Kalshi交易量的七成左右。

So sports drives about 70% of volume on Kalshi.

NBA的表现一直很棒。

So the NBA has been great.

世界杯也是Kalshi上非常热门的投注事件。

World Cup is also a a hot betting events for Kalshi.

到了秋天，NFL赛季就要开始了。

And then in the fall, you will have NFL coming up.

中期选举又要来了，这事儿真没个完。

You have midterm elections coming up, so the games never end.

这句倒可以当 slogan 用——这事儿真没个完。

That could be the slogan for one of these, the games never end.

确实挺贴切的。

That's quite fitting.

明白了。

Okay.

咱们聊聊这家公司的上市时间表吧。

Let's go to the IPO timeline for this company.

你提到华尔街已经开始接触 Kalshi 了，其实就像你在这段故事里说的，任何一家投行都会主动接近增长迅速的初创公司或后期企业，好在上市时能占个好位置。

So you reported that Wall Street has started to approach Kalshi, which I think, as you point out in the story, I mean, it's not uncommon for any Wall Street bank to approach a fast growing startup or late stage company so that they can get on their good side for an IPO.

那我们有没有听说过 Kalshi，或者 Polymarket，对上市有什么打算？

Do we know anything about Kalshi's plans or even Polymarket's plans for an IPO?

从时间上看，明年会不会就有动静？

Timeline wise, is this something we should be expecting even next year?

目前Kalshi和投资银行之间的对话还处于早期、非正式阶段。

So the talks between Kalshi and investment banks are early and informal.

所以IPO不太可能在明年晚些时候之前发生，甚至可能要到2028年。

So the IPO will unlikely to happen until later next year or even 2028.

我们还从消息源了解到，作为对话的一部分，Kalshi正试图让银行将其系统接入Kalshi交易所，这样银行的机构客户就能在Kalshi的预测市场，甚至其全新的永续期货产品上进行交易。

We also know from sources that as part of the conversations, Kalshi is trying to get banks to integrate with Kalshi exchange, which means that the institutional clients of banks will be able to trade on Kalshi's prediction markets or even its new perpetual futures product.

这也是Kalshi吸引机构投资者的一部分努力，因为公司历史上主要依靠的是散户投资者。

And this is part of Kalshi's push to attract more institutional investors because for the most part of the company's history, it's really propelled by retail investors.

你一直关注加密货币领域，也追踪过所有试图上市的加密公司，之前那届政府时期，它们在SEC那里遇到了不少麻烦。

Now, you cover crypto, and you covered all of the crypto companies that have sought to go public, and under the previous administration ran into some complexities with the SEC.

我们刚请同事科里·温伯格来聊了聊，SEC在面对OpenAI和Anthropic的上市申请时，需要考虑哪些问题。

We just had our colleague, Cory Weinberg, on talking about what the SEC will have to consider with respect to OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.

你觉得Kalshi在上市过程中，会因为SEC而遇到障碍吗？还是说，这一届政府给了他们更清晰的路径，让他们能尽早尽快地推进？

Do you think that there are some roadblocks here for Kalshi in going public with the SEC, or do you think that under this administration, they kind of have a clear path and they try to get out sooner rather than later?

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

我觉得，在当前这届政府下，证交会对于推动金融创新、突破金融监管边界的企业态度相当友好，Kalshi 就是其中之一。

I think the SEC, under this administration, has been pretty friendly with companies working on pushing financial innovations and pushing the boundary of financial regulations, and Kalshi is one of those.

Kalshi 在其提供的体育合约方面面临着巨大的法律不确定性。

Kalshi does face huge legal uncertainty over the sports contracts that it provides.

已经有好几个州起诉了 Kalshi，要求它停止提供这些合约，理由是 Kalshi 实际上在从事未经许可的非法体育博彩。

There are several states that have already sued Kalshi asking it to stop offering these contracts because they alleged that Kalshi is effectively providing illegal unregistered sports gambling.

不过 Kalshi 表示，它受联邦监管机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管，并且遵守联邦法规，因此正试图驳回这些诉讼。

Now Kalshi has said that it is regulated by the federal regulator, the CFTC, and it it follows federal regulation and so is seeking to dismiss these lawsuits.

对于一家面临这种法律风险的公司，通常在上市时，会向投资者详细披露所有潜在风险。

For a company that faces these legal uncertainty, usually, they go public, they will disclose in details all the risk to investors.

所以我不认为这会完全阻止公司上市，但他们在披露风险时，必须把这一点说清楚。

So I'm not sure it will entirely prevent a company from going public, but this is something that they will have to make clear of during their risk disclosure.

对。

Right.

我的意思是，这可能不会从根本上决定它能不能上市，但很可能决定它能赚多少钱，或者未来商业模式还能怎么发展。

And I mean, it might not be existential in terms of whether or not it can be a public company, but it could be existential in terms of how much revenue the company generate or what the business model could be going forward.

最后一点，岳琪，你提到Kalshi还在找新的CFO。

The last thing, Yueqi, that you point out in the story is that Kalshi is still looking for a new CFO.

那现在到底有没有人担任CFO了？

Do we have any updates on who is the CFO right now, even?

目前他们有一位代理CFO，就是首席了事官亚历克·卡尔希。

So far, they have an acting CFO who's their chief of staff, Alec Kalshi.

他们上一任CFO是去年年底才聘的，现在已经离职了。

They their prior CFO, which they only hired late last year, has already left the company.

所以他们正在物色新CFO，同时也在组建财务团队，准备经审计的财务报表，这些都是上市前的关键工作。

So they are looking for a new CFO and getting the finance team ready and getting the audited financials will be a big part of any IPO preparation work.

我来预测一下吧。

And, I mean, look, here's here's a prediction.

我觉得，现在加密公司最缺CFO，但你可能会看到一些有经验的加密行业老CFO加入Kalshi，因为他们特别擅长在法律风险很高的情况下把公司送上资本市场。

I mean, I I think, mean, the crypto companies need their CFOs right now more than anyone else, but I think you could see some of those more veteran CFOs from crypto land joining Kalshi because they have so much experience taking companies public with so much legal uncertainty.

这或许值得留意。

Maybe that's something to watch for.

Yueqi，非常感谢你今天来做客。

Yueqi, I want to thank you for coming on.

这位是杨悦琪，我们《信息》杂志的加密货币记者。

That is Yueqi Yang, our crypto reporter here at The Information.

国会正在提出一项新计划，让普通美国人也能分享人工智能繁荣带来的经济红利。

A new plan in Congress would let everyday Americans reap the economic rewards of the AI boom.

本周的深度报道中，我们的科技文化与财富记者罗森伯格详细介绍了这项计划，以及背后支持它的重量级人物。

For this week's Big Read, our tech culture and wealth reporter, Rosenberg, wrote about that plan and one of the big names who is backing it.

现在有请埃利来和我们分享他的发现。

Eli joins me now to share with us what he learned.

埃利，欢迎来到节目。

Eli, welcome to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you here.

谢谢，阿卡什，很高兴能来。

Good to be here, Akash.