《信息》2026年预测、普华永道媒体与电商负责人、字节跳动的胜利 | 2025年12月19日

欢迎各位收看Informations TI TV。

Welcome everyone to the Informations TI TV.

我叫阿卡什·皮斯里特沙。

My name is Akash Pisritsha.

今天是12月19日，星期五。

It is Friday, December 19.

今天我们聚焦新闻团队对新年的预测。

We are honing in on our newsroom's predictions today for the new year.

我将与我们的总编辑杰西卡·莱森，以及我们的人工智能、风险投资和加密货币记者一同出席。

I'll be joined by our editor in chief, Jessica Lesson, along with our AI, venture capital and crypto reporters.

随后我们将深入探讨媒体和电子商务领域的预测，并以每周的编辑精选环节收尾。

We'll then dig into predictions for the worlds of media and e commerce, and we will wrap with our weekly Editor's Cut.

马丁·皮尔斯加入节目，讨论在TikTok签署协议剥离其美国业务后，他认为谁才是美中TikTok之争的真正赢家。

Martin Pearce joins the show to talk about who he thinks is the real winner of The US China TikTok battle after TikTok signed a deal to spin off its US business.

这将是一场精彩的节目，让我们马上开始。

It's going to be a fun show, so let's get right on into things.

这一年即将结束，这意味着现在是坐下来预测2026年趋势的绝佳时机。

It is the end of the year, which means it's a perfect time to sit down and make some predictions for 2026.

《信息报》将在新年推出一份更全面的预测报告，但我们想先让你提前了解我们新闻团队的想法。

The information will be putting out a bigger package of predictions in the new year, but we want to give you a sneak peek of what our newsroom is thinking about.

我们先从我们的主编杰西卡·莱森开始。

We're going to start with our editor in chief, Jessica Lesson.

接下来是杰西卡对未来的看法的对话。

Here's a conversation about what Jessica sees coming.

嘿，杰西卡。

Hey, Jessica.

你最近怎么样？

How are doing?

我很好，阿卡什。

I'm great, Akash.

已经在展望2026年了。

Looking at 2026 already.

真不敢相信。

Can't believe it.

2026年。

2026.

嗯，你看，你上周为我们高级订阅用户举办了预测网络研讨会，我想是吧，内容非常丰富。

Well, look, you hosted your predictions webinar for our pro subscribers last week, I think it was, and there was a lot there.

我想做的是，让人们对那次研讨会的亮点有个初步了解。

And what I want to do is I want to give people a little bit of a taste of the highlights of that.

所以，给我们讲讲你对2026年最重要的几项预测吧。

And so walk us through some of your biggest predictions for 2026.

当然。

Absolutely.

所以我预测科技行业将出现大规模裁员。

So, you know, I'm really predicting major tech layoffs.

我认为这可能让人感到意外，因为目前科技经济看起来一片向好，充满热情，但也存在很多疑问。

And I think perhaps this is surprising because everything seems up into the right and there's so much exuberance the tech economy, but also a lot of questions.

首先，我认为成本压力、对巨额AI基础设施支出的压力，以及这些大公司能够更高效地完成更多工作，这些因素结合起来将导致大规模裁员。

And so first off, I think that the combination of cost pressure, pressure on these massive AI infra spends, and also the fact that these big companies can do more and more efficiently, I think is going to lead to very substantial layoffs.

我们已经看到一些小规模的信号，我确信这种趋势在2026年一定会加速。

We've seen a small drumbeat, and I think that will accelerate in 2026 for sure.

因此，我对这一点很有信心。

So feel confident about that one.

我认为这一点很有趣，因为它展现了今年开始出现的一种矛盾：一方面是过度乐观，另一方面是焦虑不安——既要投资增长，又要 elsewhere 严格控制开支。

And I think it's an interesting one because it shows sort of this dichotomy that has started this year, this exuberance but this paranoia, this invest for growth but keep belts tight elsewhere.

所以我认为这种趋势会持续下去。

So I think that will continue.

那么，如果你必须选出一家你确信会裁员的公司，有没有具体的名字？

So if you had to pick one company that you think for certain, I mean, there any one name you're looking at?

是云服务商吗？

Is it a hyperscaler?

我的意思是，我们是不是在想

I mean, So I are we think thinking

亚马逊、微软、谷歌、Meta、Salesforce协同行动。

the Amazon's, Microsoft's, Google's, Meta's, Salesforce's act in concert.

我的意思是，在这二十年报道大型科技公司的过程中，我学到的一件事是，它们之间有很多相互观察和效仿——我想我学到了很多东西，但它们确实会协同行动。

I mean, there's one thing I've learned in twenty years out here covering big tech companies is there's a lot of looking and seeing, I mean, I guess I've learned many things, but they really act in concert.

在市场和人才市场允许你收紧开支的时候，会有一个窗口期。

It's like there's a window where you have permission from the markets, permission from the talent markets to belt tighten.

所以，我实际上认为这并不是某一家公司出了问题，尽管每家公司都有自己的问题。

So I actually think it's not a question of problems at one company, although everyone's got their issues.

我还预测，我们不会看到一种齐头并进的顺风车效应，而是会在主要的大型科技公司中出现真正的赢家和输家。

I'm also predicting that we'll see instead of like a tailwind that rises all boats, some real winners and losers when it comes to the major big cap tech companies.

但我认为，在裁员方面，这将是普遍现象。

I But think when it comes to layoffs, it will be across the board.

好的。

Okay.

本周我们发布了一篇报道，讲述了OpenAI的组织结构如何导致了ChatGPT那边的一些问题。

So now we published a story this week about how the organizational structure at OpenAI has led to some of the challenges with ChatGPT over there.

我想知道你是如何看待ChatGPT和Gemini之间的竞争的。

I wonder how you're thinking about the ChatGPT Gemini rivalry.

你对此有什么预测吗？

Do you have any predictions there?

我认为这种竞争会继续下去。

Well, I think it will continue.

我认为，在模型的某些能力方面，这是一场关于势头的游戏。

And I do think that it's a momentum game when it comes to some of the capabilities of the models.

我认为所有模型在某种程度上都会趋同，但它们在专业化方面也会出现分化。

I do think all models converge to some respect, although they also diverge in terms of their specialization.

但我认为Gemini的势头将继续下去。

But I think Gemini's momentum is going to continue.

我认为我们将会看到另一个主要科技公司，可能是在企业端而非消费端，真正采用Gemini，并可能放弃自己定制模型的开发，意识到这并不是该投入的领域。

And I think we're going to see another major tech player, on the enterprise side, probably enterprise versus consumer, really adopt Gemini and maybe sort of throw in the towel on some of their own custom model development and really figure out that that's not the place to play.

我的意思是，苹果或许已经在预示这一点了，我们看到它最初选择了OpenAI，但现在更深入地采用了Gemini来支持Siri。

I mean, perhaps Apple is foreshadowing this a little bit in that we've seen it go first with OpenAI, but now more deeply Gemini for Siri.

不过我们听说，苹果仍然致力于其自身的基础模型开发。

Although Apple is still committed to its own foundation model development, we hear.

但我认为，如果你放眼整个消费和企业领域，会发现越来越多的首席执行官会权衡后认为，这并不是他们想参与的资本支出、研发或人才竞争，他们更希望在自己的定制化应用场景中获得优势和利润，而使用其他公司的模型。

But I think if you look, if you zoom out and you look across consumer and enterprise, I think more and more CEOs are going to make the calculus that this is not the CapEx race, the research race, the talent race they want to be in and that they want to get their edge, they want to get their margin in their more custom use cases and use other models.

我们显然已经在搜索领域看到了这一点。

Now we've obviously seen this in search.

在消费科技的许多其他范式中，我们也看到了这种情况。

We've seen this in many other paradigms in consumer tech.

我认为，凭借其广泛的关系网络，谷歌正 poised（准备就绪）在此领域大展身手。

And I think Google, with all its relationships, is really poised to make a move here.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

说到预测，你对这些预测市场怎么看？

Now, speaking of predictions, what do you make of these prediction markets?

我的意思是，你觉得这个故事在2026年会改变吗？

I mean, do think that story changes in 2026?

首先，2025年会发生什么样的故事呢？

Well, first, what a story of 2025.

Call Sheep、Polymarket，不仅在用户增长方面，还在通过与纽约证券交易所等传统机构的合作，深度融入传统金融体系。

Call Sheep, Polymarket, not only just in their user growth, but in their embedding in the traditional financial system with partnerships, New York Stock Exchange and more traditional institutions.

一周前左右，有新闻爆出Coinbase与Kalshi达成合作，这周刚刚公布。

The information broke a week or so ago, news that Coinbase was partnering with Kalshi, which came out this week.

严格来说，Coinbase还不能算传统金融机构，但它正在走向

Wouldn't quite call Coinbase a traditional financial institution, it's on its

它比预测市场更传统一些，你知道的。

it's more traditional than, you know, the prediction Yes.

在某些方面，

Markets in some

这就是我们目前所达到的境地。

is where we've ended up.

是的。

Yes.

而且它确实希望如此。

And it certainly wants to be.

所以势头非常强劲。

So incredible momentum.

但我认为2026年对预测市场来说将是非常艰难的一年，因为我觉得监管机构终于要追上来了。

But I think 2026 is going be a very, very tough year for the prediction markets because I think the regulators are finally going to catch up.

这让我想起了优步当初强势进入出租车和网约车市场时，宣称所有关于这一行业的传统监管都不适用。

This reminds me of when Uber kind of came roaring into the taxi and ride hailing market and said, all the traditional regulations around this, they don't apply.

这为它带来了巨大的发展势头。

And it got them great momentum.

但随后也带来了与监管机构多年不断的斗争。

And then it got them years and years of battles with regulators.

现在，这正是科技行业发展的典型模式。

Now, this is kind of how tech plays out.

我绝对不认为这预示着这些预测业务的末日，它们非常有趣。

And I definitely don't think it spells doom for these prediction businesses, which are fascinating.

但我认为，明年精力、动力和时间的焦点将从各州的体育博彩上转移开来。

But I think in terms of where the energy and momentum and time spent is going to be next year, it's going to be pushed back from the states on sports betting.

我的意思是，我根本不相信当涉及如此巨大的收入时，各州会视而不见。

I mean, I just don't believe that the states are going to turn a blind eye when so much revenues at stake for them.

我认为这也会在其他领域产生影响。

And I think that will play out in other areas as well.

所以我认为采用率将继续增长，但可能会有一些调整。

So I think adoption will continue, but there could be some recalibration.

商业模式可能会发生一些变化。

There could be some changes to the business model.

这些平台可能会达成某些协议，以进入下一阶段的增长。

There could be some deal cut for those platforms to see the next phase of growth.

我认为，正如你所说，其实只需要一笔超级大单就够了。

And I think, I mean, to your point, all it would take is really one mega trade.

我们曾写过一些关于这些平台上内幕交易的疑虑，类似的事情。

We've written about some of the suspicions around insider trading on these platforms, stuff like that.

我的意思是，其实只需要一次警醒，就像我们在加密货币和预测市场上看到的那样，就能彻底改变整个局面。

I mean, really all it takes is one wake up call, as we've seen with crypto and maybe with predictions markets, to change the entire game.

我想问一下，我抛出

Want to ask I throw

它们偏离轨道。

them off course.

我要明确一点，除了2025年学到的诸多教训之外，最终看到谷歌搜索垄断案落下帷幕，坦白说，这在过去六个月里并不是科技行业最紧迫的问题，但我们已经超越了它。

You know, I do, to be clear, if there's any other, so many lessons from 2025, but finally seeing the Google monopoly search deal come to a close, which let's face it is not the most pressing issue in the technology sector over the last six months, we moved beyond it.

我属于这样一类人：我认为这种监管最终并不会动摇或摧毁这些公司。

I am in the camp that this regulation ultimately doesn't tilt these companies or destroy them.

但就它们将如何分配时间、你会看到哪些头条新闻、产品将如何调整而言，我认为明年这将是必然发生的。

But in terms of the ins and outs of what they're going to be spending their time on, what headlines you're going to see, how products are going to adjust, I feel that's a certainty for next year.

对。

Right.

那媒体呢？

What about media?

我的意思是，这两周媒体界真是乱成一团，不仅仅是华纳兄弟、派拉蒙和奈飞之间的纷争，

I mean, this has been a crazy two weeks for media, not just with the Warner Bros.

就在本周，我们还看到YouTube获得了奥斯卡奖。

Paramount Netflix saga, but we just saw this week that YouTube is getting the Oscars.

你觉得这个故事在2020年会如何改变YouTube？

How do you think that story changes You in 2020

你知道，你根本没法跟YouTube对着干。

know, you just can't bet against YouTube.

我其实在我和我丈夫的一些朋友一起做的播客里预测过，今年创作者会赢得艾美奖。

I actually predicted on my podcast with some friends of my husband this week that creator is gonna win an Emmy next year.

好吧。

Okay.

我们走着瞧。

We'll see.

但我确实认为，无论是YouTube式的媒体还是我们正在走向的任何方向，这都是一个真实且不可阻挡的趋势。

But I do think that the sort of YouTube of media or however whichever direction we're going in is a real, real thing and pretty unstoppable.

我认为，最终那些只存在于YouTube上、并不将节目授权给Netflix的人，也有机会赢得艾美奖。

And I think ultimately, you know, people who exist only on YouTube, not like then license a show for Netflix, have a real shot at an Emmy.

所以，这是我做出的另一个预测。

So that was a different prediction I made.

你知道，在我们的行业里，阿卡什，我认为媒体正面临更多困境。

You know, in our industry, Akash, I think it's more troubled waters in media.

我认为我们将看到许多出版物意识到，人们不再阅读他们的文章，因为这些内容缺乏原创性。

I think we are going to see a lot of publications realize that people aren't reading their stories because they're not original.

你知道，就连我们最好的机构，比如《纽约时报》，它们在做卓越的新闻报道时，也在引导我们走向其他体验。

You know, when I even our best institutions doing excellent journalism like The Times are pushing us into other experiences.

当我打开《纽约时报》App时，有五个标签，但只有一个属于新闻，另外四个都不是新闻。

When I open my Times app, you know, there are five tabs and only one of them is news and four of them aren't.

而这正是《纽约时报》App的主要界面。

And that's the main interface to the New York Times app.

所以《纽约时报》是领导者，我认为其他机构也会大力推行这种模式。

So The Times is a leader, and I think others will really push that playbook.

这可能会导致整个行业对某些类型的新闻报道投入更少的关注和资源。

And that's going to potentially mean more, fewer or less attention and fewer resources to certain types of journalism across the industry.

因此，我认为这将充满动荡，延续现状，并可能进一步整合。

So I think it will be tumultuous and more of the same and probably consolidation as well.

对于关注数字媒体领域内幕的听众，我建议留意更多类似Airmail和Puck那样的并购整合。

I would look out For those of our listeners who are into the inside baseball of the digital media landscape, I would look out for many more airmail Puck like tie up tuck ins.

今年早些时候，Puck收购了Airmail，两者拥有非常相似的投资方背景。

This is when Puck bought airmail earlier this year, having very common ownership on its investors.

我想我们会看到Netflix、华纳兄弟和派拉蒙之间会发生什么变化。

So I think that consolidation, we'll see what plays out with Netflix, Warner Brothers, and Paramount.

而且这种思维模式也会向下渗透。

And I think that mentality will trickle down as well.

那我快速问一个问题。

Well, let me ask this very quickly.

如果2026年有一个授予创作者的艾美奖，获奖者会是MrBeast还是其他人？

If there's an Emmy in 2026 for a creator, is it MrBeast or is it somebody else?

我觉得是其他人。

I think it's someone else.

我觉得是其他人。

I think it's someone else.

我觉得这个奖项的竞争是开放的。

Think the field's open.

我也认为YouTube已经注意到了这一点。

I also think that this is on YouTube's radar.

我跟一些创作者聊过，他们说去YouTube寻求帮助，希望赢得艾美奖。

I've spoken to creators who said they're going to YouTube saying, Help me win an Emmy.

我认为这些公司和创作者都是出色的执行者，所以我觉得这件事一定会发生。

And I think these companies and creators are great executors, and so I think it's going to happen.

很好。

Great.

好了，杰西卡，很高兴你能来做客。

Well, Jessica, it was great to have you on.

期待看到这些预测如何在2026年真正演变。

Look forward to seeing all those predictions, how they in turn actually evolve in 2026.

我相信这将是一个忙碌的一年。

It's going to be a busy year, I'm sure.

再次感谢你。

Thank you again.

这位是杰西卡·莱森，我们《信息》杂志的主编。

That is Jessica Lesson, our editor in chief here at The Information.

现在让我们转向我们的记者，看看他们有哪些预测。

Let's go now to our reporters to see what predictions they are thinking about.

我们将从人工智能开始，然后转向风险投资和加密货币。

We're going to start with AI, and then we're going to go to venture capital and crypto.

现在邀请我的是我们的AI记者斯蒂芬妮·帕拉佐洛。

Joining me now is Stephanie Palazzolo, our AI reporter.

嘿，斯蒂夫。

Hey, Steph.

最近怎么样？

How's it going?

很好。

It's great.

那么我们来谈谈明年的预测吧。

So let's talk about predictions for the upcoming year.

你在这档节目中想做出什么预测？

What is one prediction that you want to make here on the show?

嗯。

Yeah.

我觉得AI的难点在于很难预测下个月会发生什么，更不用说明年了。

So I think the tough thing about AI is it's very hard to predict, you know, what the next month is going to bring, let alone the next year.

但我对明年的预测是，亚马逊将不得不收购一家大型AI实验室。

But I think my prediction for next year is that Amazon will have to acquire a large AI lab.

我认为，在所有云服务商中，亚马逊在人工智能战略上可能是最落后的。

I think out of all the cloud providers, it does seem like the one that's perhaps furthest behind on its AI strategy.

你知道，微软与OpenAI关系非常紧密，谷歌的模型在过去一两年里表现尤为出色。

You know, obviously Microsoft has a very close relationship with OpenAI and Google has models that are doing super well, especially in the last year or so.

所以我认为，从亚马逊公司最近的一些变动中，我们甚至能窥见他们所面临的困境。

So I think for Amazon we can even see some of the troubles that they've been going through through some recent changes at the company.

就在本周，他们的AI开发团队进行了重组，一位AWS高管被任命为团队负责人，这选择相当不寻常。

So you know, just this week it had a reorg of its AI development team where we saw a AWS exec become the head of the team, was quite an an unusual choice.

而且似乎那里有很多人换岗、频繁调动。

And it just seems like there's a lot of, you know, people changing positions there, people moving around.

这让我觉得，也许在进入下一年时，他们正在为公司做重大调整做准备，或许会收购一家外部初创公司。

Kind of makes me feel like maybe going into this next year, they're going to be prepping to make some serious changes to the company and perhaps, you know, bringing in an outside startup.

好的。

Okay.

那么，你认为会是哪家实验室呢？

So which lab do you think it's going to be?

怎么

How

嗯。

Yeah.

你觉得

Do think

我的意思是，如果他们真想大干一场，我会说Anthropic，尽管这显然会是一笔非常昂贵的交易。

That's I mean, if they really wanted to go crazy, I would say Anthropic, although that would obviously be a very expensive deal.

我认为一个更现实但仍相当大胆的预测是像Thinking Machines Lab这样的公司，它由前OpenAI首席技术官米拉·马雷达创立。

I think a more realistic but still pretty out there prediction would be something like Thinking Machines Lab, which of course is founded by former Chief Technology Officer of OpenAI, Mira Maradi.

对。

Right.

你觉得这会是一次 outright 收购吗？

And do you think that that is an outright acquisition?

你觉得这更像我们已经非常熟悉的那种收购人才型的奇怪交易吗？

Do you think it's more of one of these acquihire type funny deals that we've become so familiar with?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，到目前为止，传统的收购似乎已经不再发生了。

I mean, it seems like at this point, like the traditional, you know, acquisition just doesn't really happen anymore.

我认为，考虑到这一点，再加上亚马逊显然会面临很大的反垄断审查，我认为他们更可能采取收购人才的方式。

I think, you know, with with that and the fact that Amazon would actually would would obviously be under a lot of kind of antitrust scrutiny, I think it'd probably be the acquihire route.

显然，今年这种趋势一直很显著，比如谷歌的Windsurf交易，以及Meta和Scale的交易。

Obviously, that's continued to be a really big trend this year with things like the Google Windsurf deal and Meta and Scale.

所以我认为他们也很可能属于这一趋势。

And so I think they would probably also fall within that trend.

很好。

Great.

好了，Steph，感谢你来参加。

Well, Steph, I want to thank you for coming on.

这是一个大胆的预测，但嘿，如果Miramaradi加入亚马逊，我们一年后的今天一定会回放这段视频，希望那时能告诉你，你猜对了。

It is a bold prediction, but hey, if Miramaradi joins Amazon, then we will be sure to play this clip one year from today, and we'll hope to tell you that you were right.

这位是斯蒂芬妮·帕拉佐洛，我们《信息》杂志的AI记者。

That is Stephanie Palazzolo, our AI reporter here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

接下来，我们将进入风险投资领域，邀请我们的风险投资副主编凯蒂·鲁夫，聊聊她的预测。

Well, next up, we are moving to venture capital, and we are bringing on our Deputy Bureau Chief of Venture Capital, Katie Roof, for a conversation on what her predictions are.

凯蒂，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Katie, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你来到这里。

It's great to have you here.

很高兴能和你们一起交流。

Great to be on with you.

那么，你对2026年的重大预测是什么？

So what is your big prediction for 2026?

嗯，我有几个预测，好几个。

Well, I have several predictions, my- Several.

好的。

Okay.

不好。

Not Okay.

甚至还行。

Even All right.

我准备好了

I'm ready

了。

for it.

说说看。

Lay it on us.

首先是，人工智能热潮和私人融资方面至少会持续到第一季度，因为我们已经听到许多公司标记了日程，表示：好吧，我们打算在第一季度进行一轮融资。

Well, the first is that the AI boom and the private financing side is gonna continue to at least Q1 because we're already hearing about a lot of companies that have marked their calendars and said, all right, we're gonna do a round in Q1.

因此，尽管最近市场有些波动，但这一趋势并没有放缓的迹象。

And so that doesn't show signs of slowing, even though there have been some market jitters recently.

私人市场跟上公开市场可能需要一点时间。

It can take a minute for the private markets to catch up with the public markets.

所以至少目前，还有什么关于AI的

So at least for now, What more AI

关于IPO呢？

about with IPOs?

我的意思是，你对此有什么预测吗？

I mean, do you have any predictions there?

所以我真的认为今年上半年会比较缓慢。

So I actually think the first half of the year is going to be pretty slow.

可能会有少数公司上市，但我们听说的那些大公司，似乎没有一家准备在上半年上市。

There's a handful that might go, but the big names that we're hearing rumored, none of them seem to be ready for the first half of the year.

但到了下半年，或者年中，可能会非常活跃。

But the second half of the year or by midyear, it could be very active.

我最近刚公布了SpaceX的IPO。

You know, I recently broke the SpaceX IPO.

关于这一点，现在已经有很多报道了，但我听说他们计划在明年年中到年底上市。

There have been many, many stories about that now, but I I'm hearing that they're aiming to go mid to late next year.

显然，IPO计划有时会变动，但这可能会成为历史上规模最大的一次IPO。

Obviously, sometimes IPO plans change, but that would be possibly the biggest IPO in history.

此外，我们还可能看到Anthropic，以及其他一些大公司在下半年考虑上市。

And then we also have potentially Anthropic, and then some of the other big names looking at the second half of the year.

好的。

Okay.

但凯蒂，下半年会有多大呢？

But how how big in h two, Katie?

因为我们要稍微打破一下第四面墙了。

Because because we're we're we're gonna break the fourth wall here a little bit.

好的。

Okay.

我们之前确实讨论过这个问题。

We did talk about this at a time.

你告诉我，你预计今年下半年的IPO会创纪录。

You told me you were expecting a record H two for IPOs.

我们能确定这真的会发生吗？

Are we willing to say that that's that's gonna be the case?

是的。

Yeah.

因为仅SpaceX一家就足以奠定这一纪录。

Because SpaceX by itself is gonna help cement a record.

我的意思是，根据他们最近的估值，他们是一家价值8000亿美元的公司。

I mean, they are an $800,000,000,000 company by their own valuation they recently set.

如果他们超过或至少达到这个估值，那将非常不寻常，因为你知道，如果他们上市15%的股份——实际上可能更少，但我们拭目以待。

And if they exceed that or even match that, it's just, know, very unusual because, you know, if they, float, you know, 15% of the company, I mean, it probably less, but we'll we'll see.

我的意思是，如果他们大量释放这些股票，那么从一开始就会有巨大的交易量。

I mean, if they they float a lot of these shares, then there's just so much transaction volume to to trade right from the get go.

因此，这之所以能创纪录，是因为有SpaceX，可能还有另一个像Anthropic那样的破纪录IPO，以及许多其他重量级公司也在考虑中。

And so it's record setting in the sense that you have SpaceX, potentially another record IPO like Anthropic, and several other really big names thinking about it.

对。

Right.

所以，正如你所说，这么多资本被筹集起来，我们很可能会看到这种情况发生。

So we could see I mean, this is a lot of capital being raised, as you said, so we could definitely see that play out.

那融资呢？

What about with fundraise?

你提到过人工智能初创公司正在筹集资金。

I mean, you talked about the AI startups raising money.

那风险投资领域呢？

What about in venture capital?

你对那里有什么预测？

What predictions do you have there?

我最近发过一张图表，显示对于风险投资公司来说，这是至少十年来最困难的募资年份。

So I had a chart that recently went viral about how it's, you know, actually the most difficult year for venture capital firms to do their own fundraising in a decade, in at least a decade.

所以我认为这种情况可能会持续下去。

And so I think that that might continue.

我不知道是否会进一步下滑，还是会保持稳定，但似乎2021年和2022年出现的大量小型风投公司扩张现象正在发生变化。

I don't know if it will go declined further or remain constant, but it seems like the expansion we saw with lots of tiny venture firms springing up in 2021, 2022.

不幸的是，

Unfortunately,

一个

a

除非这些公司很早就投资了某些AI项目，否则它们中的许多在筹集第二期基金时将面临困难。

lot of those firms are gonna have trouble raising their second fund unless they were really early on some AI thing.

因此，是的，风投领域似乎呈现出两极分化的局面，我一直说，一方面像安德森·霍洛维茨和Lightspeed这样的大公司正在筹集创纪录的数十亿美元，而另一方面，小型公司却连多筹一点钱都做不到。

And so, yeah, it it feels like it's a tale of two cities in venture where, you know, I've been saying this for a while that, you know, you have on the one hand, like, Andreessen Horowitz and Lightspeed and some of the big names raising, like, record, many billions of dollars, and then you have the smaller firms that just can't even get a little more money.

对。

Right.

好的。

Okay.

正如人们所说，大的变得更大，我很期待看到这一切如何发展。

Well, the big get bigger, as they say, so I'm excited to see how all that plays out.

凯蒂，很高兴你来参加我们的节目，我们很快还会再邀请你。

Katie, it was great to have you on the show, and we'll have you on again soon.

刚才的是凯蒂·罗夫，我们在TI TV的风投部门副主编。

That was Katie Roof, our Deputy Bureau Chief of Venture Capital here on TI TV.

好的。

Okay.

接下来，我们将进入加密货币领域。

Next up, we are going to wander into crypto.

今年真是疯狂的一年，我们预计事情只会变得更疯狂。

It has been a crazy year, and we are anticipating things will only get crazier.

我想请出我们的加密货币记者杨悦驰。

I want to bring on our crypto reporter, Yuechi Yang.

悦驰，欢迎再次回到节目。

Yuechi, welcome back to the show.

很高兴你在这里。

It's great to have you here.

嘿，很高兴来到这里。

Hey, great to be here.

好的，那么2026年，你认为明年加密货币领域会发生什么？

Okay, so 2026, what are you thinking is going to happen next year in crypto?

我的预测是，全球最大的稳定币发行商Tether将在明年开始为上市做准备。

So my prediction is Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer in the world, will start to lay the groundwork to go public next year.

Tether？

Tether?

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

在所有公司中，居然是Tether。

Of all companies, Tether.

而且他们要开始做上市的准备工作。

And they're to lay the groundwork.

我的意思是，谈谈你为什么这么认为。

Mean, talk a little bit about why you think that.

这可能是一个更具争议的预测。

So this might be a more controversial predictions.

我先说，Tether 自己曾表示他们没有上市计划，但同时我认为他们有理由尝试上市。

I will start by saying that Tether itself has said that they do not have plan for an IPO, But then at the same time, I think there are reasons for them to try to go public.

首先，上市是获得公信力的好方法，尤其是在美国。

First, going public is a great way to gain legitimacy, especially in The US.

这是他们能得到的最好的监管环境。

And this is the best regulatory environment that they can ever get.

我们知道，特朗普政府非常支持加密货币。

We know that the Trump administration is very pro crypto.

目前华尔街的投资者非常喜欢加密货币公司。

The investors on Wall Street right now love crypto companies.

今年刚刚通过了稳定币相关法案，而 Tether 最大的竞争对手 Circle 在股市上表现非常出色。

Stablecoinization was just passed this year and Circle, which is the biggest competitor of Tether was doing very well in the stock market.

所以，我认为市场和监管环境都支持 Tether 上市。

So, think there is appetite and regulatory environment for Tether to go public.

另一方面，Tether 目前正在筹集高达 200 亿美元的大规模融资，因此在未来某个时候，他们需要找到一种方式为参与其融资轮次的投资者提供流动性。

And then on the other hand, Tether is currently raising a massive round of funding of up to $20,000,000,000 And so at some point in the future, they will need to figure out a way to provide liquidity for investors that are participating in their fundraising round.

所以，我可以问一个有点傻的问题吗？我知道当 Circle 上市时，我大致理解了这里的公司结构。

So can I ask a bit of a stupid question here, which is that I know that when Circle went public, I sort of understood the corporate structure here?

Circle 是一家公司，Circle 发行 USDC。

There's Circle the company and Circle issues USDC.

Tether 的结构也是这样的吗？

Is Tethr structured the same way?

是否存在一个发行 Tether 的公司实体会上市？

Is there like a corporate entity that would be going public that issues Tether?

这到底是怎么运作的？

How does it work?

是的，这是个很好的问题。

Yeah, that's a great question.

是的，Tether 发行 USDT 稳定币，而 Tether 公司本身是一家管理非常严格的公司。

Yes, Tether issues the USDT Tether stablecoin, and Tether, the company itself, is a very tightly controlled company.

他们股东很少。

They don't have many shareholders.

因此，他们的公司结构与Circle不同，Circle在上市前曾进行过多轮风险投资，并拥有大量外部投资者。

So their corporate structure is kind of different from Circle, which prior to them going public, they raised rounds of VC funding and they have a lot of outside investors.

从这个角度看，Tether是不同的。

So in that sense, Tether is different.

Tether最近还成立了一家美国实体，用于发行面向美国市场的Tether稳定币的美国版本。

Tether recently also launched a US entity that they used to issue a US version of the Tether stablecoin, which will be targeting The US market.

该代币尚未上线，但我们预计今年晚些时候会很快上线。

And that token hasn't gone live yet, but we expect back to go live very soon this year.

这是一个较小的业务起步。

And that's a smaller business to start.

因此，我们也会关注这项业务是否有可能成长到足以在未来上市。

So we'll also be watching out if that business might potentially grow big enough to go public at some point.

你认为华尔街准备好迎接Tether的IPO了吗？

Do you think that Wall Street is ready for a Tether IPO?

我的意思是，加密货币已经是世界上最具波动性的资产了。

I mean, crypto is already the most volatile thing in the world.

而你现在还要加上泰达币。

And here you're adding Tether.

我的意思是，你觉得会发生什么？

I mean, what do you think happens?

当我与投资者交谈时，问他们对泰达币的兴趣如何，每个人首先都会说泰达币拥有有史以来最棒的商业模式。

So when I talk to investors, when I ask them about their appetite for Tether, the first thing that everyone says is Tether has the greatest business model ever.

哦，原来如此。

Oh, okay.

通过发行稳定币，然后赚取他们从你那里获得资金的利息。

To make stable ones and then they earn interest on the money that they take from you.

但他们并不会将这些利息返还给你。

And they do not give you or pass along those interests back to you.

预计泰达币今年的利润将超过150亿美元。

And Tether is expected to earn more than 15 billions in profit this year.

这可以说是人们见过的最棒的商业模式之一。

And it is just one of the best business model that people have seen.

因此，从这个角度看，投资者对通过泰达币获得敞口有着极大的兴趣。

So in that sense, there is great appetite for being able to gain exposure from Tether.

但与此同时，我认为人们也指出了泰达币面临的重大障碍。

But then at the same time, I think people are pointing out that there are significant hurdles for Tether as well.

首先，泰达币没有经过审计的财务报表，而这是任何想要上市的公司都必须具备的。

The first thing is that Tether does not have audited financials and that's a must have for any company that want to go public.

多年来，泰达币一直声称正在努力完善经审计的财务报表，但至今仍未实现。

Tether for years talks about working on audited financials, but that hasn't come into place yet.

同时，泰达币还面临监管方面的担忧，因为其主要的稳定币不符合Genius合规标准，他们必须找到办法遵守美国新的稳定币法案。

And at the same time, there's also regulatory concern for Tether because the main Tether stablecoin is not Genius compliant, and they will need to figure out a way to comply with the new stablecoin law in The US.

我想再明确一点。

And I just want to make put a finer point on it.

你说基础工作将在2026年完成，但IPO可能更接近2027年。

You're saying that the groundwork will happen in 2026, but maybe an IPO is more of a 2027.

这就是我的预期。

That's my expectation.

好的。

Okay.

这给了我更多空间来打造体验。

Gives me more room to make the experience.

更多。

More.

就是这样。

There you go.

好吧。

All right.

嗯，这很有趣，岳琪，我迫不及待想看看事情会如何发展。

Well, it's a fun one, Yueqi, and I can't wait to see how things play out.

这是《信息》杂志的加密货币记者杨岳驰。

That is Yuechi Yang, our crypto reporter here at The Information.

好的。

Okay.

我们的下一个环节是我们的赞助商普华永道。

Our next segment is with our sponsor, PwC.

今年科技和媒体趋势层出不穷，普华永道服务了众多客户，一直站在观察这些趋势的前沿。

It's been a busy year for tech and media trends, and PwC has had a front seat to it all with the many clients that it serves.

我想为大家播放一段我与普华永道科技、媒体和电信业务部门负责人达拉斯·多兰的对话，谈谈他眼中2026年的关键趋势。

I want to play for you a conversation that I had with Dallas Dolan, a leader at the firm's tech, media and telco practice, to talk a bit about what he sees being the defining themes for 2026.

以下是这段对话。

Here is that discussion.

达拉斯，欢迎来到节目。

Dallas, welcome to the show.

很高兴你能来。

It's great to have you here.

能来这里我也很高兴。

It's great to be here.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

我很期待和你聊聊你的预测。

So I'm excited to talk all about your predictions.

我想从媒体行业开始，你看，Netflix、派拉蒙、华纳兄弟。

I want to start with the media sector because, look, the Netflix Paramount, Warner Bros.

探索频道本周仍在持续引发关注。

Discovery is continuing to make news this week.

如果我们退一步看，你认为这个领域到2026年会有哪些关键趋势？

I mean, we take a step back, what are the trends that you see being the defining themes for 2026 in that sector?

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们每天早上醒来都会看到这方面的最新消息，尤其是在西海岸。

I mean, we wake up every morning to new news on that front, especially if we're on the West Coast.

对吧？

Right?

我认为我们正在看到的可能是几件事。

I think what we're seeing probably is a couple of things.

对吧？

Right?

首先，最重要的是，需要证明新格式的价值，这种捆绑和整体体验是消费者愿意为之付费的。

First and foremost, it's the need to demonstrate that there's value in new formats, that the bundling and the overall experience is something that the consumers wanna pay for.

我们开始看到一定程度的技术整合。

We're starting to see some level of integration of technology.

当然，多年来一直都在发生，比如你在不同平台上收到的推荐。

Certainly, it's been happening for some years as far as the recommendations you might've been getting on different services.

但现实是，我们仍未看到足够的整合，以创造出用户以及真正为内容领域提供资金支持的人们所迫切需要的价值。

But the reality is we still haven't seen the requisite probably amount of consolidation to create the amount of value that the users and really the people who are, you know, frankly, funding all this in in in in the in the content space really need to get out of these services.

而且市场上可能也存在太多规模过小的流媒体服务。

And you also have probably too many subscale streaming services that are out there in the market.

对。

Right.

所以，你知道，整合是不可避免的。

And so, you know, consolidation is inevitable.

这些最新的一系列交易，正在陆续出台，并且每次都是头版新闻，实际上只是大公司聚在一起，探讨整合后的样子，以及如何在过程中摸索前进。

These latest sets of deals that are, you know, coming down the pike and that are the front page news for for every cycle here are really just an example of the big guys getting together and figuring out, like, what that looks like and some of the muddling through on the same.

但我认为在未来一年里，我们会看到更多这样的情况。

But I think we'll see a lot more of it in the year to come.

你提到了一个很好的观点，那就是从商业角度来看，有时这些企业必须通过整合来实现规模效应。

So you hit on a good point there, which is that consolidation, I mean, from a business perspective, sometimes these businesses have to consolidate to make the scale work.

但从消费者角度来看，我很好奇，你是否看到消费者对拥有太多订阅服务感到疲劳？

But on the consumer side, I'm curious, I mean, are you seeing fatigue from consumers with respect to having too many subscriptions?

这最终是我们现实中正在观察到的趋势吗？

And is this ultimately a trend that we're seeing on the ground?

百分之百。

A 100%.

我的意思是，现实就是这样。

I mean, here's the reality.

我来举个昨晚从德克萨斯飞回来的例子。

I'll use my example from last night flying back from Texas.

有时候我甚至不知道自己有哪些订阅服务，以及登录这些服务用的是哪些密码，还得发短信问老婆帮忙确认。

I sometimes don't even know what subscription services I have access to and what passwords I already I am used for you know, to get into them, and I'm texting with my wife trying to figure that out.

没错。

Right.

但除了这个实际应用层面，你还得考虑支付能力的问题，这会影响很多其他决策，我们稍后会谈到。

But beyond just the the the practical application point of that, you do have the affordability, dynamic, which affects a lot of other, you know, decisions too that we'll talk about.

我认为，如果订阅服务缺乏便利性，而用户开始觉得它价值不足，或者因为忙于其他事情——比如工作更忙、花更多时间陪伴家人朋友——尤其是在这个时节，他们最终会开始做出取舍。

I think that affordability piece, especially if you don't have the convenience feature built into it and people begin to, you know, see some, you know, lack of value and or the lack of use because they're doing other things, they're working more, they're spending more time, you know, with family and friends and the like, especially this time of year, you're gonna start seeing decision making, I think, happening there finally.

当然，这前提是消费者在财务上确实承受着压力。

That, of course, assumes, by the way, that there is pressure on the consumer from a financial point of view.

而我们的数据已经显示了这一点。

And we are seeing that in the data.