油压：美国扣押油轮事件

《经济学人》。

The Economist.

你好，欢迎收听《经济学人》的《智识》节目。

Hello, and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist.

我是杰森·帕尔默。

I'm Jason Palmer.

我是罗斯·布洛尔。

And I'm Rosie Bloor.

每个工作日，我们都为您带来塑造您世界的事件的全新视角。

Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

近年来，古巴的生活水平因停电日益频繁而进一步恶化。

The grim standard of living in Cuba has been slipping further recently due in large part to ever increasing power cuts.

过去是委内瑞拉的石油维持着电力供应。

It was Venezuelan oil that was keeping the lights on.

如今，美国试图控制这条电力输送线，那会怎样呢？

So what happens now that America seeks to control that light line?

今年的足球世界杯将由美国、加拿大和墨西哥联合主办。

And this year's Football World Cup will be jointly hosted by America, Canada, and Mexico.

作为我们‘未来展望’系列的一部分，我们探讨为何有些人对2026年世界杯如此悲观。

As part of our World Ahead series, we ask why some people are so pessimistic about the twenty twenty six tournament.

但首先。

But first.

昨天，美军做了一件他们早在去年12月就做过的事：扣押了一艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮。

American forces did something yesterday that they'd already done back in December, seizing an oil tanker with links to Venezuela.

不过，这次国际社会的反应却耐人寻味。

This time, though, the international reaction was telling.

中国外交部发言人毛宁质疑了此次扣押的法律依据。

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, questioned the legal basis of the seizure.

她指出，这一行动并未获得联合国安理会的授权。

She pointed out there was no authorization from the UN Security Council.

俄罗斯军事专家瓦西里·丹迪金则说得更加直白。

Vasily Dandighin, a Russian military expert, put it more pointedly.

他称之为国家层面的海盗行为，把索马里海盗和美国海岸警卫队放在一起说。

State level piracy, he called it, putting Somali pirates in the US coast guard in the same sentence.

如今，中国、俄罗斯、伊朗及其他国家都对这个故事有切身利益。

Now China, Russia, and Iran and others have a vested interest in this story.

事实上，这确实看起来像电影中描绘的那种敌意收购。

And in truth, it kind of did look like the sort of hostile takeovers depicted in the movies.

昨天，美军乘坐直升机降落在北大西洋的一艘船上，并将其扣押。

Yesterday, US forces were seen descending on a helicopter, landing on a ship in the North Atlantic, and seizing it.

沙尚·乔希是《经济学人》的防务编辑。

Shashan Joshi is the Economist's defense editor.

登上名为‘马拉纳’号油轮的正是美国海岸警卫队，这艘船此前被称为‘贝拉一号’。

It was a US Coast Guard that boarded the Marinara oil tanker that was previously known as the Bella one.

这是一场持续数周的缓慢海事追逐，最终在冰岛附近水域结束。

This was a remarkable slow motion naval chase that had lasted for weeks, and it finally came to an end near the waters of Iceland.

是的。

Yeah.

我听到你把这场追逐称为北大西洋的OJ辛普森案。

I I heard you describe the chase as the, the the OJ Simpson of the North Atlantic.

给我详细讲讲吧。

Talk me through it.

嗯。

Yeah.

你看。

Well, look.

所以基本情况是，杰森，上个月，美国海岸警卫队正在加强此前对委内瑞拉实施的封锁，记得那时距离突袭逮捕卡贝斯的马杜罗还有一段时间。

So what happened basically, Jason, is last month, the US Coast Guard, which is tightening this quarantine that has been declared on Venezuela at the time remember, this is prior to that shock operation to seize Nicolas Maduro in Caracas.

他们试图登船拦截贝洛安号，警告委内瑞拉：你们不能从本国水域运出任何受制裁的石油。

They attempted to board the Beloan to say to Venezuela, you can't send any sanctioned oil out of your waters.

但他们尝试失败了，因为当时海岸警卫队没有配备专业的登船小组。

And they tried to do it, but they failed because the coast guard didn't have the specialist boarding crews that it needed at the time.

于是，贝洛安号干脆直接逃跑了。

So then the Bella one basically makes a run for it.

它关闭了应答器。

It shuts off its transponders.

你在船舶追踪网站上看不到它，但它出现在了大西洋上。

You can't see it on ship tracking websites, and it turns up in the Atlantic.

而且它不仅出现在大西洋，还改了名字叫‘马里纳拉’，并以近乎滑稽的方式匆忙在船体侧面涂上了俄罗斯国旗，且已重新注册到俄罗斯海事登记系统，仿佛在说：

And not only does it turn up in the Atlantic, it's got a new name, the Marinara, and it has, in almost comic fashion, hastily painted a Russian flag on the side of the hull and has been reregistered in Russia's maritime registry to say, hey.

我是俄罗斯的。

I'm Russian.

你别想碰我。

You can't touch me.

接着，你注意到大量美军力量单独向英国集结，所有人都在想：这是怎么回事？

Then what happened is you can see separately this massive influx of US military forces heading to The UK, and everyone's thinking, what is going on?

这些能力是什么？

What are these capabilities?

结果发现，基本上就是执行这种行动所需的直升机、部队和人员。

And it turns out, basically, they're the helicopters, the forces, the troops you would need to conduct this kind of operation.

俄罗斯派出了一艘潜艇和其他海军力量来保护贝洛号，但美国人先到了。

The Russians sent a submarine and other naval assets to protect the Belo one, but, basically, the Americans got there first.

他们得到了英国的帮助，美国随后扣押了这艘船——这是他们昨天扣押的第二艘船，因为昨天他们还在加勒比海域扣押了另一艘名为‘M Sofia’的船只。

They were helped by the British, and America goes and nabs the ship, the second one they have done yesterday, because they also grab another one called the m Sofia in Caribbean waters yesterday as well.

但为了明确一点，美国对这些船只感兴趣，是因为它们运载着委内瑞拉石油吗？

But just to be clear, America has an interest in these ships because they are carrying Venezuelan oil?

这艘船其实并没有运载任何石油，无论是委内瑞拉的还是其他的。

Well, this one wasn't carrying any oil, Venezuelan or otherwise.

我认为它最初可能运载的是伊朗石油，但很可能在某个时候卸载了。

I think it had been carrying Iranian oil originally, but it probably unloaded that at some point.

但这艘船非常可疑。

But the ship is very dodgy.

所以，基本上，它在2024年被美国列入了制裁名单。

So, basically, it was placed under sanctions in 2024 by The United States.

原因是它涉及一家被指控为黎巴嫩武装组织真主党提供掩护的公司。

That was for its involvement in a company that was alleged to be a front for Hezbollah, which is the the Lebanese militant group.

自2020年左右以来，它已向中国转运了约2500万桶伊朗和委内瑞拉石油。

And it has moved, I think, somewhere in the region of, like, 25,000,000 barrels of Iranian and Venezuelan oil to China since 2020 or so.

美国之所以针对这些船只，根本原因在于，他们推翻了尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，声称要掌控委内瑞拉，实际上是在通过维持对委内瑞拉的石油禁运，迫使残余政府屈服于其意志。

And the reason America is going for these ships is basically because having toppled Nicolas Maduro and said it's gonna run Venezuela, what it's basically saying is it will run Venezuela by maintaining an oil embargo on the country to force the rump government to submit to its will.

这一行动，连同美国为控制委内瑞拉石油所采取的其他措施，是该国战后治理的其中一个方面。

And this, along with other steps that it's taking to control Venezuelan oil, is one aspect of that post raid governance of the country.

但这里发生的事情远不止一个委内瑞拉石油禁运那么简单。

But there's a lot more going on here than a Venezuelan oil embargo.

我们已经多次提到伊朗、中国和俄罗斯，而且俄罗斯还在为这艘船提供支持。

We've already had mention of Iran, of China, of Russia now, and Russia backing up this ship.

帮我梳理一下这里涉及的网络关系。

Talk me through the network that's going on here.

当英国国防大臣约翰·希利为英国参与此次突袭辩护时，他描述此事的方式非常有趣。

What was interesting when John Healy, The UK defense secretary, was justifying British involvement in this raid was the way he described it.

他说这艘船有着恶劣的过往，并称其是俄伊制裁规避轴心的一部分，该轴心正在助长恐怖主义、冲突和苦难。

He says the ship had a nefarious history, and he said it was part of a Russian Iranian axis of sanctions evasion, which is fueling terrorism, conflict, and misery.

这是所谓的影子船队的一部分，俄罗斯也广泛使用这类船队来违反多项国际、美国和欧洲的制裁运输石油。

This is part of what's called a shadow fleet, which Russia has also used extensively to move oil in defiance of many international and and US and European sanctions.

例如，这艘船去年八月被发现在伊朗。

So for example, this ship was spotted last August in Iran.

它在卡拉加岛装载了伊朗石油。

It loaded Iranian oil at a place called Karga Island.

但在装载过程中，杰森，它广播了虚假的位置数据，这种行为称为欺骗，目的是让人误以为它在更南边的海域。

But as it was doing it, Jason, it broadcast false location data, that's called spoofing, to basically imply it was somewhere way further south.

所以它基本上是以非常隐蔽的方式进行这一操作。

So it was basically doing this in a very clandestine way.

因此，你可以看到，这生动地体现了俄罗斯、伊朗和委内瑞拉之间的真实联系。

So you can see how this is an interesting worked example of the nexus between Russia, Iran, Venezuela in a very real tangible way.

这不仅仅是一种地缘政治联盟。

It's not just some kind of geopolitical alliance.

这实际上涉及船舶、石油、能源以及在公海上切实存在的规避制裁行为。

It's an actual thing involving ships, oil, energy, sanctions busting in a very real sense on the high seas.

规避制裁、位置欺骗，所有这些本质上都是非法行为，这能证明美国人所作所为的合理性吗？

Sanctions busting and location spoofing and and all of it essentially illegal behavior that that justifies what the Americans have done?

嗯，也不完全是。

Well, not exactly.

我的意思是，这些是美国和欧洲的制裁，

I mean, are American sanctions, European sanctions.

而不是联合国的制裁。

They're not UN sanctions.

仅仅因为国内制裁针对一艘船，并不意味着你就有权在公海上任何地方扣押它。

And just having domestic sanctions against a ship doesn't give you the right to go and seize it anywhere on the high seas.

不过，确实存在某种依据，因为这艘‘贝勒号’最初声称悬挂的是圭亚那国旗。

There is something that does, though, because the Beller one originally claimed to be flying the flag of Guyana.

所有船舶都必须悬挂国旗。

Now all ships have to fly a flag.

这是联合国《海洋法公约》的要求。

That's a requirement under the UN convention on the law of the sea.

如果它们不悬挂旗帜或悬挂虚假旗帜，就属于无国籍状态，可以被登船检查。

If they don't fly a flag or if they fly a false flag, they are stateless, and they can be boarded.

圭亚那否认这是有效的旗帜。

Guyana denied that this was a valid flag.

基本上，去年12月这艘船声称自己实际上是挂俄罗斯旗帜。

And, basically, what happened in December was the ship said, actually, we are Russian flagged.

但如果你查看《联合国海洋法公约》，看看这套法律，它规定船只在航行途中不能随意更换旗帜，除非有真正合法的所有权变更。

But if you look at Unclos, if you look at this body of law, it says a ship cannot just change its flag halfway through a voyage unless there is a really valid change in ownership.

这艘船很可能是一艘无国籍船只，因此从法律上讲，它成为被扣押的合法目标。

This was probably a stateless ship, and that made it, in a legal sense, fair game for seizure.

这是否暗示你，一旦这支影子船队浮出水面，被揭露为俄罗斯支持的船队，我们正朝着美国与俄罗斯在这些船只问题上更直接的冲突迈进？

Does that suggest to you that once this shadow fleet comes out of the shadows, is revealed as Russian backed, that we're heading now towards a more direct conflict between America and Russia as regards these ships?

有趣的是，并非如此。

Interestingly, no.

我注意到这些突袭对全球石油市场影响甚微，这表明这是一项针对委内瑞拉的政策。

And I thought it was striking that the raids had very little impact on global oil markets, which tells you this is a Venezuela focused policy.

是的。

Yes.

这涉及一艘声称悬挂俄罗斯国旗的船只。

It involves a ship that claims a Russian flag.

是的。

Yes.

俄罗斯派出了海军力量来保护它，但这表明特朗普的目标是针对与委内瑞拉相关的石油。

Russia sent naval assets to protect it, but this is an indication Trump is going after Venezuela linked oil.

这并不意味着他打算打击欧洲人真正关心的问题，即更广泛的俄罗斯影子船队。

This is not a suggestion he is going to go after what Europeans are really concerned about, which is the Russian shadow fleet more broadly.

所以，从现在开始，你预期的只是更多委内瑞拉石油被扣押，而不是全面打击影子船队？

So what you expect from here on out is simply more of the Venezuelan oil to be seized rather than for the shadow fleet to be tackled in its entirety?

而且不仅仅是被扣押，因为围绕委内瑞拉石油市场还发生了许多其他奇怪的事情。

And not just seized because there's a lot of other strange stuff going on around Venezuela's oil markets.

你知道，特朗普总统已非常明确地表示，他在委内瑞拉的目标并非人权。

You know, president Trump has said very, very clearly his aim in Venezuela is not human rights.

这不是释放政治犯。

It's not a release of political prisoners.

也不是什么提前举行大选、建立新政权和自由的委内瑞拉。

It's not a, you know, early elections to a new regime and a free Venezuela.

这非常、非常简单。

It's very, very simple.

这关乎美国对石油的获取，用他的话说，是为了压低全球油价，这相当雄心勃勃。

It is American access to oil, to in in his words, to push global oil prices down, which is pretty ambitious.

但有趣的是，昨天他大致勾勒出这个有点疯狂的计划，称委内瑞拉将向美国移交高达五千万桶、价值约28亿美元的石油。

But what was interesting is yesterday, he kind of outlined this slightly madcap scheme, and he said Venezuela would be turning over up to 50,000,000 barrels of oil worth around $2,800,000,000 to The United States.

他说这些石油将被出售，收益——我引述他的话——将由我控制，以确保用于惠及委内瑞拉人民和美国人民，感叹号。

He said that would be sold, and the proceeds would be, and I'm quoting, controlled by me to ensure it's used to benefit the people of Venezuela and The United States, exclamation mark.

但我不知道特朗普计划从中分得多少好处。

But I don't know what cuts Trump plans to take.

但对我来说非常清楚的是，在推翻马杜罗、完成这场大胆的委内瑞拉赌注之后，唐纳德·特朗普的首要目标是获取委内瑞拉石油，而这正是这一宏大计划的一部分。

What's very, very clear to me, though, is that after the toppling of Maduro, after this great Venezuelan gambit, the number one focus for Donald Trump is getting access to Venezuelan oil, and this is all part of that broad effort.

这是一种敲诈。

It's a shakedown.

这确实是一种敲诈。

It is a shakedown.

我昨天听到大卫·弗罗姆——我认为他曾是乔治·W·布什的演讲撰稿人——将此描述为美国蜕变为高科技海盗行为。

And I heard day yesterday, I heard, David Fromm, who was George w Bush's speechwriter, I think, described this as The United States devolving into high-tech piracy.

非常感谢您加入我们的节目，祖张。

Thanks very much for joining us, Zuzhang.

非常感谢你，杰森。

Thanks so much, Jason.

今天晚些时候，我们的姊妹节目《金钱对话》将对委内瑞拉石油进行更深入的分析。

There will be much more in-depth analysis on Venezuela's oil on our sister show, Money Talks, out later today.

您可以在《经济学人》应用程序或您收听播客的任何平台找到它。

Find it in The Economist app or wherever you get your podcasts.

您需要成为订阅用户才能收听。

You'll need to be a subscriber to listen.

当美国军队在全球各地追击委内瑞拉石油时，有一个国家尤其将很快感受到压力。

While American forces chase Venezuelan oil all over the map, there's one country in particular that'll soon be feeling the pinch.

嗯，甚至是更大的压力。

Well, even more of a pinch.

古巴对这种石油的依赖程度可能超过任何其他国家。

Cuba is more dependent on that oil than perhaps any other country.

切断石油供应会使本已虚弱的政权更加虚弱，而特朗普政府对此心知肚明。

Cutting it off would make a weakened regime weaker, and the Trump administration knows it.

所以可以说，古巴一团糟。

So suffice it to say, you know, Cuba is a disaster.

国务卿马尔科·卢比奥本人是第二代古巴裔美国人，他多年来一直针对该国的共产党统治者。

It's Secretary of state Marco Rubio, himself a second generation Cuban American, has taken aim at the country's communist rulers for much of his career.

是的。

Yeah.

你看。

Look.

如果我住在哈瓦那并且身在政府，我至少会感到一些担忧。

If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I'd be concerned at least a little bit.

委内瑞拉石油这一议题牵涉广泛，从简单的勒索到可能影响大国竞争的方方面面。

The oil part of this Venezuela story has all kinds of tendrils to it, from that plain shakedown to how it might affect great power competition.

但对于美国的近邻和老对手来说，这可能是关乎存亡的问题。

But for a near neighbor and old adversary of America, it might be existential.

古巴与美国的关系一直紧张，但这次情况不同。

Relations between Cuba and The United States have always been tense, but this is different.

大卫·亚当斯为《经济学人》撰写关于古巴的文章。

David Adams writes about Cuba for The Economist.

古巴现在处于我从未见过的脆弱状态。

Cuba is at a point of fragility that I've never seen before.

古巴人对自己的现状感到极度沮丧。

Cubans are utterly depressed about their state of affairs.

他们担心今年将迎来更多的物资短缺、更频繁的停电，甚至可能加剧镇压，因为古巴政府根本没有离开的打算。

They're fearful that what's coming this year is going to be more scarcity, more power cuts, and possibly more repression too because the Cuban government has no intention of going anywhere.

它不会向北方的帝国主义者低头。

It will not bow its knee to the imperialists to the north.

但让我们稍微回溯一下。

But let's wind back just a bit.

但在过去几年里，似乎两国关系一直在改善。

At least in the past few years, it seemed that relations had been improving.

我们是如何走到今天这一步的？简要回顾一下历史吧。

What's a sort of a potted history of how we got to where we are right now?

是的，在经历了数十年的美国贸易禁运、古巴的抵抗以及对外国盟友的依赖——先是苏联，然后是委内瑞拉，还有中国，如今仍部分依赖俄罗斯之后。

Well, yes, after decades of US trade embargo and Cuban resistance and reliance on foreign allies, the Soviet Union, then Venezuela, a little bit China, today still a little bit Russia.

这在2014年奥巴马总统宣布对古巴开放时出现了转机。

That appeared in 2014 when President Obama announced his opening with Cuba.

这似乎掀开了新的一页。

That appeared to be a new chapter.

外交关系得以恢复。

Diplomatic relations were restored.

美国人被鼓励首次前往古巴。

Americans were encouraged to go to Cuba for the first time.

从迈阿密出发的游轮开始航行。

Cruise ships were sailing from Miami.

古巴的旅游业蓬勃发展，但并未持续太久。

Tourism was booming in Cuba, but it didn't last very long.

随后特朗普就任总统，一切戛然而止。

And then president Trump became president, and everything came to a screeching halt.

更糟糕的是，新冠疫情来袭，彻底摧毁了古巴的旅游业——而古巴原本指望它成为新的经济生命线。

And then on top of that came COVID, which just completely devastated the Cuban tourism industry, which is what they'd been banking on to be the new economic lifeline.

他们大力投资建设酒店。

They invested heavily in hotels.

如今这些酒店全都空置着。

Those hotels are all now sitting empty.

而拜登总统并没有给古巴人留下多少回旋余地。

And president Biden, he really didn't give the Cubans much to play with.

而现在，随着特朗普再次当选总统，我们看到压力不断升级。

And now back with president Trump for a second term, we've seen the pressure ratcheting up.

那么，普通古巴人的生活现状如何？

And what is the situation on the ground for ordinary Cubans?

好吧，即使在上周末事件发生之前，古巴人的生活就已经变得越来越艰难。

Well, look, even before the events of last weekend, life in Cuba had been getting progressively more and more difficult.

紧缩政策一再加码。

The belt has just been tightened and tightened.

基本食品的短缺变得更加严重。

Shortages of basic food has gotten more acute.

尤其是过去一年半里，最突出的问题是这些停电现象，古巴人称之为‘停电’。

And then the big thing in the last year and a half in particular has been these power outages, what they call in Cuba.

这些停电可不是只持续五分钟那种。

And these aren't like the power goes off for five minutes.

每天停电长达五、六、七、八个小时。

The power goes off for five, six, seven, eight hours a day.

最大的担忧是这些停电时间会越来越长，情况会变得越来越困难。

The big fear is that these power cuts are gonna get longer and longer, and it's gonna be more and more difficult.

在本周末事件发生之前，委内瑞拉是以何种方式参与维持古巴电力供应的？

And before the events of this weekend, in what way was Venezuela involved in keeping keeping the lights on in Cuba?

嗯，很大程度上。

Well, very much.

1990年苏联解体后，古巴确实经历了可怕的十年，他们称之为极度匮乏的特殊时期。

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, Cuba went through this terrible decade really, which they called the special period of utter scarcity.

然后在1998年12月，指挥官乌戈·查韦斯当选委内瑞拉总统，他是一位社会主义者，也是古巴菲德尔·卡斯特罗的亲密盟友。

And then in December 1998, Commandante Hugo Chavez was elected president of Venezuela and a socialist and a close ally of Fidel Castro in Cuba.

因此，查韦斯总统从就职直到2013年去世期间。

And so president Chavez taking office through to his death in 2013.

古巴拥有一个非常稳定的盟友和非常稳定的石油供应。

Cuba had a very steady ally and a very steady supply of oil.

尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统于2013年接任，委内瑞拉的情况每况愈下，而古巴的热电厂非常陈旧，来自委内瑞拉的重质燃料油腐蚀性很强，他们在维持这些热电厂运行方面遇到了难以置信的问题。

President Nicolas Maduro took over in 2013 and things went from bad to worse in Venezuela and Cuba's thermoelectric power plants are very antiquated and this heavy fuel oil that comes from Venezuela is very corrosive and they've been having incredible problems keeping these thermoelectric power plants running.

现在的新总统是德尔C。

Now the new president, Del C.

罗德里格斯，人们认为特朗普总统会要求德尔C.

Rodriguez, one assumes that president Trump is going to demand that president Del C.

罗德里格斯停止这一行为。

Rodriguez turns that off.

但唐纳德·特朗普曾多次暗示，他认为古巴正在衰落，并且在马杜罗下台后留下的真空环境中，古巴现在可以更自由地崩溃。

But Donald Trump has various points suggested that he thinks Cuba is failing and that it can now fail more freely in in sort of vacuum left by mister Maduro's removal.

你对此有什么看法？

Do you read anything into that?

我从中解读到的是，特朗普总统实际上认为在古巴没什么可获得的。

What I read into that is that president Trump doesn't actually see an awful lot to be gained in Cuba.

他一向喜欢以物易物的方式做事。

He famously likes to do things on a quid pro quo basis.

因此，委内瑞拉拥有石油和其他矿产。

So Venezuela has oil and has other minerals.

它有大量的黄金。

It has a lot of gold.

它可能拥有相当多的资源。

It's got potentially quite a bit to offer.

古巴除了可能成为美国制造商有趣的零售市场外，几乎没有其他可提供的东西。

Cuba doesn't really have anything to offer other than potentially interesting retail market for American manufacturers.

所以他很乐意让它自行崩溃。

So he is quite happy to let it sink by itself.

让稀缺性发挥作用。

Let the scarcity do its work.

尽管国务卿马尔科·卢比奥显然是一个极具影响力的人物，但他不会做任何违背总统指示的事情。

While Secretary of State Marco Rubio is obviously an enormously influential figure, he's not gonna do anything that runs counter to what his president is telling him.

他们可能觉得这就足够了。

They may feel that's enough.

他们一直认为，最终古巴人会起来反抗。

They've always felt that in the end Cubans would rebel.

这些年来，偶尔会爆发一些抗议活动，但事实上数量非常少。

Over the years, there'd been occasional outbreaks of protests, but frankly, very few.

我从1988年开始报道古巴，记得当时曾报道过，古巴革命已难以为继，基本上已经走到尽头，只是时间问题。

I started covering Cuba in 1988 and I remember reporting on how it was unsustainable, the Cuban revolution basically had come to an end and it was just a matter of time.

我当然学到了一个重要教训，而古巴官员喜欢不断提醒我这一点。

And I obviously learned an important lesson, one that Cuban officials liked to remind me of.

不要低估古巴政府的持久力。

Don't underestimate the staying power of the Cuban government.

他们仍然高度自律、高度有组织。

They are still highly disciplined, highly organized.

他们确实有一批革命者。

They do have a core of revolutionaries.

他们说我们必须继续抵抗，我们只能看看还剩下多少抵抗力量。

They talk about We have to keep resisting, and we'll just have to see how much more resistance is left.

大卫，非常感谢你加入我们。

David, thanks very much for joining us.

杰森，能与你们交流是我的荣幸。

Jason, it was my pleasure.

世界杯在场外的复杂程度不亚于场内。

World Cups can be as tricky off the field as they are on.

俄罗斯作为旅游目的地颇具争议，而卡塔尔在赢得主办权时几乎没有任何体育场。

Russia was controversial as a tourist destination, and Qatar had almost no stadiums when it won the bid.

因此，当加拿大、墨西哥和美国被确认为2026年世界杯主办国时，它们看起来似乎是举办赛事更简单的地方。

So when Canada, Mexico and America were confirmed as hosts of the twenty twenty six World Cup, they must have seemed simpler places to hold a tournament.

但自它们被选为主办国以来，世界已经发生了变化。

But the world has changed since they were chosen.

唐纳德·特朗普政府曾因轻微违规而拘禁游客。

Donald Trump's administration has locked up tourists for minor violations.

它甚至在街头随意抓捕外国学生，只因他们发表过关于政治的言论。

It snatched foreign students off the street for things they'd said about politics.

而美国总统还曾威胁过另外两个世界杯主办国。

And America's president has also threatened the other two World Cup host countries.

作为我们《世界前瞻》系列的一部分，我们的资深文化记者约翰·法斯曼询问球迷们是否仍然愿意参加今年夏天的世界杯。

As part of our World Ahead series, our senior culture correspondent John Fassman asks whether fans will still want to attend this summer's tournament.

我认为反对观点有三个要点。

I think the bear case has three planks.

第一点是2024年，美国举办了美洲杯——这是南美球队的赛事，决赛期间发生了严重的安全漏洞。

The first one is in 2024, The United States hosted the Copa America, which is a tournament of South American teams, and the finals saw some very serious security breaches.

第二点是，美国举办了国际足联俱乐部世界杯，但大多数比赛的上座率都非常低迷。

Number two, The United States hosted the FIFA Club World Cup, and attendance was pretty anemic for most of those games.

这两点都很容易被驳斥。

Both of those things are fairly easy to dismiss.

世界杯的规模远大于这两项赛事。

The World Cup is a bigger tournament than either of them.

更令人担忧的是，自唐纳德·特朗普上台以来，前往美国的游客数量急剧下降。

The bigger concern is that since Donald Trump took office, tourist numbers to The United States have plummeted.

因此，人们确实有疑问：在当前条件下，国际游客是否还愿意来美国？而美国本土球迷，尤其是拉美裔或西班牙语裔球迷，如果球场外有边境巡逻队，他们是否还愿意前来观赛？

So there are real questions over whether international tourists will want to come to The United States under current conditions and whether American fans, especially fans of Hispanic or Latino origins, will want to come to the stadiums if there are going to be ice patrols outside them.

那么你的预测是什么？

So what's your prediction?

他们会来吗？

Are they gonna turn up?

我的预测是，会的，他们会来。

My own prediction is, yes, they will.

世界杯极具吸引力，尽管特朗普政府对移民普遍不友好，但他本人却表示希望人们前来。

The World Cup is a tremendous draw, and Donald Trump is unwelcoming as his administration has been to immigrants generally, has said that he wants people to come.

因此，我认为这两点结合在一起，意味着情况不会像原本可能发生的那样糟糕。

And so I think that those two things together mean that it's not gonna be as much of a disaster as it could have been.

我怀疑人们还是会愿意到场的。

I suspect people will wanna show up.

那么目前的准备工作进行得怎么样？

So how are preparations going at the moment?

这场世界杯独特而困难的地方在于，实际上有三个主办国。

Well, the difficult and unique thing about this World Cup is that there are actually three hosts.

美国与加拿大和墨西哥共同主办。

The United States is cohosting with Canada and Mexico.

因此，这需要一种我们在以往任何一届世界杯中都未曾见过的国际合作水平。

So that requires a level of international cooperation that we really haven't seen before in a single World Cup.

目前一切进展顺利。

Things seem to be going okay.

比赛场馆已经选定。

The venues have been chosen.

抽签仪式，正如你所见，是在华盛顿特区的肯尼迪中心举行的。

The draw, as you'll have seen, was at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC.

这算是对特朗普总统的一种让步。

This was a favor to president Trump.

我唯一担心的是，唐纳德·特朗普曾威胁要将比赛从他认为不安全的城市移走。

I suppose the only concerning thing is that Donald Trump has threatened to move games out of cities that he deems not safe.

至于他是否会真正兑现这一威胁，目前尚不清楚。

Now whether he actually follows through on that threat is an open question.

我认为这不太可能。

I would say it's unlikely.

在短时间内把原本安排好的世界杯比赛从一个体育场移到另一个体育场，并没有那么容易。

It's just not that easy to move previously scheduled World Cup games from one stadium to another at the drop of a hat.

当然，美国与墨西哥和加拿大共同主办。

So, of course, America is a cohost with Mexico and Canada.

那么，对美国比赛的担忧是否会让墨西哥和加拿大从中受益呢？

Is there the possibility that anxiety about matches in The US will mean that Mexico and Canada actually gain from this?

不过，场地已经确定了。

Well, the sites have already been chosen.

所以我认为，比赛不太可能在其他地方举行，而只会按原计划进行。

So I think it's doubtful that you'll see games played anywhere other than where they've said they'd be played.

大多数比赛将在美国举行。

Most of them will be played in The United States.

但如果你把球迷支持视为一种竞争，那么墨西哥和加拿大的比赛门票售罄数量超过美国，确实是有可能的。

But if you look at fandom as a sort of competition, I think it's certainly possible that Mexico and Canada have a greater number of sold out games than The United States does.

约翰，美国过去一直以足球水平差著称。

John, America used to have a reputation for being pretty rubbish at football.

在实力、球员或球迷基础方面，这种情况有所改变吗？

Has that changed in terms of its ability, its players, or even its fandom?

美国到底有多强，我们还得拭目以待。

How good is America is something we're gonna have to see.

我当然希望他们能赢得整个赛事。

I obviously hope they win the whole thing.

我认为他们有不错的夺冠机会。

I think they have a decent shot at doing it.

就球迷基础而言，如今与美国上一次主办世界杯的1994年相比，已经天差地别。

As far as fandom goes, it is worlds different than it was the last time The United States hosted the World Cup, which was in 1994.

如今美国已经有了一个蓬勃发展的职业足球联赛。

There is a thriving professional soccer league in The United States now.

数以百万计的美国人每周末都会收看在电视上播出的英格兰超级联赛。

Millions of Americans tune in to the English Premier League, which is broadcast on network TV every weekend.

还有数百万人观看德国和西班牙的比赛。

Millions more watch games from Germany and from Spain.

还有青少年足球，我小时候也有，但远没有现在这么普及。

And you have youth soccer, which was played when I was little, but was not nearly as big a thing as it is now.

因此，在美国上一次举办世界杯的三十年间，国内的球迷群体呈指数级增长。

So in the thirty years since the last time The United States hosted the World Cup, domestic fandom has grown exponentially.

我跟一位人士聊过，他说在1994年，当他负责纽约的比赛时，真的不得不依赖移民和游客来填满体育场。

I spoke to someone who said that in 1994, when he was managing the games in New York, they really had to rely on immigrants and on visitors to fill the stadium.

现在这种情况要少得多。

That's much less the case now.

你现在拥有一个前所未有的庞大本土球迷群体。

You have a huge domestic fan base, which you didn't have before.

那么，你认为美国在这届世界杯主办过程中会呈现出怎样的形象？

So what kind of image do you think America will end up projecting with this World Cup hosting?

这次世界杯主办完全有可能变成一场灾难。

It's certainly possible that it could be a disaster.

我怀疑这种情况不会发生。

I suspect that won't happen.

我怀疑，随着全世界的目光聚焦美国，政府、球迷和国际足联都会迎难而上，我们会举办一届成功且观众众多的世界杯。

I suspect that with the eyes of the world on The United States, the administration, the fans, and FIFA will rise to the occasion, and we'll have a successful and very well attended World Cup.

约翰，非常感谢你。

John, thank you very much.

谢谢，罗斯。

Thanks, Rosie.

本期《The Intelligence》节目到此结束。

That's all for this episode of The Intelligence.

我们明天再见。

We'll see you back here tomorrow.