风险逆转的迅猛突破

本周快报：若它弯曲，便是趣事。

On the Express this week, if it bends, it's funny.

若它断裂，便无趣味。

If it breaks, it's not funny.

近期市场逆转只是虚惊一场还是真正的崩裂？

Was the recent market reversal just a rumble or a real rupture?

风险逆转专家丹·内森将助我们驾驭这波行情。

Dan Nathan of risk reversal drops in to help us ride this rip.

华尔街认为大资金明年将流向何处，以及今年市场将如何收官。

Where Wall Street thinks the big money is headed next year and where it expects this year to end up.

黑色星期五背后的真相及本周市场展望。

The real deal behind Black Friday and what to expect this week.

前路多艰，但我们必须勇往直前。

Many rivers to cross, but onward, we must press.

这就是我们驾驭投资百科快报的方式。

That's how we ride on the Investopedia Express.

欢迎回来，欢迎登船。

Welcome back, and welcome aboard.

向世界各地收听节目的所有关注者和粉丝们致敬。

Shout out to all our followers and fans from around the world tuning in.

我们知道你们在听。

We know you're out there.

我们知道你们在印度收听。

We know you're out there in India.

我们知道你们在加拿大收听。

We know you're out there up in Canada.

我们知道你们在欧洲收听《投资百科快车》每周一上午10点的直播，以及通过各大播客平台点播。

We know you're over there in Europe listening in to the Investopedia Express live every Monday at 10AM and then on demand on your favorite podcast networks.

欢迎回到这个波动剧烈的市场。

And welcome back to some choppiness.

上周对投资者来说可不好玩。

Last week, no fun for investors.

如果你看看周一早上的股市开盘情况，我们正小幅回升，各大板块都略有上涨。

We're bouncing back a little bit if you look at the stock market open on a Monday morning, a little bit in the green across the boards.

但上周，一点都不好玩。

But last week, not even fun at all.

在感恩节临近之际，我没有太密切关注记分牌，但标普500和纳斯达克上周都下跌了2%，尽管英伟达的财报相当亮眼，纳斯达克仍下跌了2.7%。

Not keeping too close an eye on the scoreboard this close to Thanksgiving, but the S and P five hundred both fell 2% last week, and the Nasdaq fell 2.7% even after pretty strong earnings from NVIDIA.

大家都曾对此寄予厚望。

Everybody was hoping for that.

英伟达也给出了相当强劲的业绩展望。

NVIDIA gave a pretty strong forecast too.

展望未来，那波反弹并未持续太久。

Looking ahead, that rally didn't last long.

上周四道琼斯指数上演了千点大逆转。

Thousand point turnaround in the Downdour shows last Thursday.

这并不正常，但话说回来，自四月低点以来股市40%的涨幅也同样不正常。

That is not normal, but, hey, neither is a 40% increase since the April lows normal in the stock market.

我们正处于非常时期，但大幅抛售发生在一些最大的股票上。

We are not in normal times, but the big sell off was in some of the biggest stocks.

看看这个。

Look at that.

就在上周，这是股市中一些最大波动股、市场中最重要股票的五日走势图，它们遭受了重创。

Just last week, that was a five day chart of some of the biggest movers in the stock market, the biggest stocks in the market, taking it on the chin.

向FinViz致敬。

Shout out to FinViz.

他们每天都会制作很棒的图表，如果你想查看市场热度图或将其扩展到一个月甚至六个月的图表。

They do great chart work every day if you wanna look at the heat charts in the market or launch that out into a month long six month chart.

FinViz在这方面做得很好。

Heat FinViz does a nice job with that.

但上周趋势线被打破了。

But trend lines got broken last week.

感觉事情确实被打破了。

Things actually felt like they got broken.

标普500指数在连续17天的下跌中累计跌幅达6%，上周触及低点，并自4月30日以来首次跌破50日均线，终结了自1950年以来第五长的198天上涨趋势。

The S and P five hundred was down 6% over a seventeen day stretch into its low point of last week, and it actually closed below its fifty day moving average last week for the first time since April 30, ending the fifth longest uptrend since 1950 at a hundred and ninety eight days.

我并非在记录数据，但当前市场的这种波动看起来相当剧烈。

Now I'm not keeping score, but that seems like a pretty big bend in the markets right now.

上周它还一度跌破200日均线，动静大得足以吵醒孩子、惊动邻居。

It also fell below its two hundred day moving average last week at some point to wake the kids, call the neighbors.

这正常吗？

Is this normal?

不正常。

No.

但我们目前正处于某种极端时期。

But we're in kind of extreme times right now.

这感觉非常戏剧性，之所以如此是因为市场中最重磅的股票遭受了最猛烈的打击。

It feels dramatic, and it feels dramatic because some of the biggest hits came through some of the biggest stocks in the market.

正如伟大传奇人物吉米·克里夫所说：爬得越高，摔得越狠。

And as the great and legendary Jimmy Cliff would say, the harder they come, the harder they fall.

愿力量与你同在。

Rest in power.

吉米·克里夫昨日去世，享年81岁，他给全球乐迷以及像我这样的雷鬼乐爱好者带来了无数欢乐。

Jimmy Cliff passing away yesterday at the age of 81 bringing so much joy to music fans around the world and reggae fans like me.

我曾多次观看他的演出。

Saw him many times.

向吉米·克里夫致敬。

Shout out to Jimmy Cliff.

前路漫漫，我的朋友。

Many rivers to cross, my friend.

但正是这些市场巨头遭受了最沉重的打击，昔日辉煌如今黯然失色。

But it it was the biggest stocks in the market taking the biggest hits and how the mighty have fallen.

正如我们在节目中多次讨论的，我们正身处巨人的国度，但看看这些股票——截至上周收盘时，它们已从历史高点大幅回落。

We are living in the land of giants as we've talked about a lot on this show, but look at some of these stocks off their all time highs as of the the end of last week.

英伟达下跌16%，Palantir下跌26%。

NVIDIA down 16%, Palantir down 26%.

Meta，这些股票已进入熊市。

Meta, these stocks are in bear markets.

嘿。

Hey.

它们曾涨得很高，但现在处于熊市。

They rose pretty far, but they are in bear markets.

特斯拉，波动剧烈的常态股。

Tesla, normal volatile stock.

它们下跌了20%，微软下跌15%。

They're down 20%, and Microsoft down 15%.

但你知道的，你持有这些股票。

But as you know, you own these stocks.

对吧？

Right?

根据我们每几个月发布的Investopedia投资者情绪指数，这些是我们投资组合中的顶级股票。

These are the top stocks in our portfolios according to the Investopedia cent sentiment index that we run every couple of months.

你多年来一直告诉我们这些，我们都知道。

You've been telling us this for years, and we know it.

看看我自己的投资组合。

Look at my own portfolio.

看起来也很像这样。

Looks a lot like this too.

纳斯达克100指数顶部，标普500指数顶部，市场上最大的股票遭受最严重的打击。

Top of the Nasdaq 100, top of the S and P 500, the biggest stocks in the market taking the biggest hits.

不仅我们持有它们，机构也表示这是最拥挤的交易，但他们也持有这些股票。

And not only do we own them, but also institutions say they're the most crowded trade, but they own them too.

根据上周发布的美国银行全球基金经理调查，长期持有'七巨头'股票是市场上最拥挤的交易，长期持有黄金也是。

So long magnificent seven according to, the BofA global fund manager survey out last week, the most crowded trade in the market and long gold too.

这很合理。

Makes sense.

至少今年我们在黄金上看到了收益。

That's where we've seen the gains at least with gold this year.

但我们都知道我们对这些股票有点超配，也都清楚它们让我们很脆弱。

But we all know we are a little overweight these stocks, and we all know we're vulnerable to these stocks.

当这些股票受挫时，整个市场都会遭殃。

And when they get hit, the whole market gets hit.

还想看风险逆转的另一个迹象吗？

You want another sign of risk in reverse?

看看比特币及其相关资产就知道了。

Look at Bitcoin and anything attached to Bitcoin.

比特币市场波动剧烈、赤裸裸地起伏不定，已从历史高点下跌33%。

It's been a really volatile, bare, choppy market for Bitcoin, down 33% off its all time high.

但看看以太坊，虽与比特币不同，是完全不同类型的代币，但勉强算同属一个家族。

But look at Ethereum, not the same as Bitcoin, totally different type of coin, but in the family, so to speak.

狗狗币当然一文不值，下跌了81%。

Dogecoin, of course, worth nothing, down 81%.

总统币的表现也不怎么样。

The president's coin not doing so well either.

MicroStrategy，现在被称为策略公司，下跌69%。

MicroStrategy, now called strategy, down 69%.

它就是个比特币资金库。

It's just a Bitcoin treasury.

但当你只是一个比特币储备库而比特币下跌时，你的跌幅往往会更快一些。

But when you are just a Bitcoin treasury and Bitcoin falls, well, you're gonna fall a little bit faster.

那么发生了什么？

So what's happened?

我们从极度贪婪转向极度恐惧，但看看正在发生的一切以及变化速度之快。

We've gone from extreme greed to extreme fear, but you look at what's happening and how quickly it's happened.

根据Bespoke Investments的数据，我们从极度超买（他们又一张精彩的图表）转向了极度超卖。

We've gone from extremely overbought according to Bespoke Investments, another great chart by them, to extremely oversold.

如今这种转变发生得如此之快。

And it's happening so quickly these days.

我们从极度贪婪走向极度恐惧。

We go from extreme greed to extreme fear.

看看CNN商业恐惧与贪婪指数，这是我朋友保罗·拉莫尼卡开发的。

Look at the CNN business fear and greed index developed by my buddy Paul Lamonica.

我们从极度贪婪到极度恐惧转变如此之快，这些周期现在发生得极其迅速。

We went so quickly from extreme greed to extreme fear and these cycles are happening so quickly right now.

这会让你头晕目眩。

It'll make your head spin.

这类市场逆转，这类市场情绪波动，有些是基于头条新闻，有些仅仅是因为我们涨得太快太猛或跌得太快太猛。

These types of market reversals, these types of emotional movements in the market, some of them headline based, some of them just because we've come too far too fast or fall too far too fast.

如今我们的反应非常迅速。

We react very quickly these days.

那么这次市场逆转是震荡还是崩盘？

So is this market reversal a rumble or a rupture?

我们该如何看待这次风险逆转？

What do we make of this risk reversal?

好吧，让我们请出风险逆转背后的专家。

Well, let's bring in the man behind risk reversal.

我们的朋友丹·内森加入了我们的节目。

Our buddy Dan Nathan joins us on the drop in.

欢迎来到Investopedia快车，我的朋友。

Welcome to the Investopedia Express, my friend.

凯勒布，很高兴能来这儿，伙计。

Caleb, it's great to be here, man.

感谢你今天早上邀请我。

I appreciate you having me on this morning.

你和我们的朋友盖伊·阿达姆，共同创立了风险逆转顾问公司。

Well, you and our buddy Guy Adame, founding Risk Reversal Advisors.

我参加过你们的几期播客。

I've been on several of your podcasts.

你们制作了大量优质内容，精彩的播客和深刻的见解。

You guys put out so much good content, great podcasts, great insights.

你们还有现场活动。

You have the live events.

你也是《快钱》节目的常驻嘉宾，已经很多年了。

You're also on the cast of Fast Money and have been for years.

而你我之间，我的朋友，有许多共同点。

And you and I, my friend, have many things in common.

我们都有超棒的姐妹。

We have amazing sisters.

确认。

Check.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Yep.

向我们的姐妹致敬。

Shout out to our sisters.

至少目前我们的发量都还保持得不错。

We have pretty good hair still at this point in time.

我们热爱市场，热爱音乐，也爱Melissa Lee。

Take We love markets and we love music and we love Melissa Lee.

是的，我们确实如此。

Yeah, we do.

我一开始就听出来了，是Jimmy Cliff的歌。

I caught that right out of the gate, the Jimmy Cliff.

我九十年代还在雷鬼阳光音乐节上看过他的现场演出。

I also saw him back in the day at a reggae sun splash in the nineties.

他是传奇人物，多年来我们喜欢的很多艺人都翻唱过他的作品。

He's the man and a lot of this stuff just covered, right, over the years by all the folks that we like very much.

所以，是的，这是个悲伤的消息。

So, yeah, sad news.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

想想81岁的人生，能像他那样长久从事自己热爱的事业，多么精彩啊。

You think about 81, what a heck of a life, man, to be doing what you love for as long as he was doing it.

是啊。

Yeah.

而且给那么多人带来欢乐，还是一位人道主义者。

And bringing so much joy to so many people and and a humanitarian.

纯粹的美好。

Just goodness.

那个人就是如此积极向上。

That guy was just so positive.

我和我妻子是因为他的音乐相爱的，这意义非凡。

And my my wife and I fell in love to his music, and it's just been important.

九十年代我在牙买加的Sunsplash音乐节上见过他。

I saw him at Sunsplash two in the nineties in JA.

说不定当时你也在那儿。

Maybe I saw you there.

或许我们曾在雷鬼音乐节上同坐一张长椅，只是不记得了。

Maybe maybe we shared a reggae bed, but but don't remember it.

是啊。

Yeah.

总之，很高兴你能来参加节目。

Anyway, so good to have you on the show.

我周末听了你的一些精彩播客，为我们的对话做准备。

So I was listening to some your great podcast over the weekend getting ready for our conversation.

就像你在《火线》里引用的那样，游戏规则没变。

As you quoted The Wire, the game is the same.

它只是变得更加激烈了，这正是我喜欢的。

It just got more fierce, which I absolutely love.

我喜欢那个节目，也喜欢那句话。

I love that show, and I love that quote.

但你那么说是什么意思呢？

But what do you mean by that?

最近市场的氛围似乎特别紧张。

It's just so intense, it seems, in the markets lately.

是啊。

Yeah.

你刚才也说过了，Caleb。

And you just said it before, Caleb.

你就像在说，'我拥有他们'。

You're like, I own him.

你拥有他们。

You own them.

每个人都拥有他们。

Everybody owns them.

对吧？

Right?

如果你持有标普500或纳斯达克或纳斯达克100指数的ETF基金，我的意思是，你对这些大公司有很大的敞口，而且你提到他们爬得越高，摔得越重。

If you own, you know, any, S and P five hundred or Nasdaq or Nasdaq one hundred fund ETF, I mean, you have a lot of exposure to these biggest names and your point about the harder they come, the harder they fall.

我是说，想想看，标普500指数从高点回落了5%。

I mean, just think about, you know, we had a 5% peak to trough sell off in the S and P five hundred.

然而这些大公司中许多股票下跌了10%、15%，甚至20%。

Yet many of these names, the biggest ones were down ten, fifteen, some 20%.

我们知道Meta的财报发布后几乎未见上涨，就在几周前。

We know that Meta barely saw an uptick from its earnings report, you know, just a few weeks ago.

微软情况类似，有趣的是我现在看屏幕是一片绿，对吧，那些科技巨头股票。

Same thing with Microsoft, and it's interesting because I look at my screens right now and it is a sea of green, right, and the mega cap tech stocks.

但英伟达在下跌，我知道上周英伟达是重头戏。

But NVIDIA's down, and I know that NVIDIA was a big part of the story last week.

微软股价下跌。

Microsoft is down.

甲骨文曾下跌，但很快又反弹了。

Oracle was down, kinda shot back, really quickly.

每周似乎都有不同的七大科技巨头接过接力棒领跑。

And each week, it seems like there's a different mag seven name that's taken the baton and just run with it.

而过去几周这个角色由谷歌担纲。

And and Google is that name over the last few weeks.

我是说，看看今天，上涨了6%呢。

I mean, look at it today, up 6%.

这可是个市值近4万亿美元的公司，今天简直是把整个市场扛在肩上走，对吧？

This is a nearly $4,000,000,000,000 market cap company that has literally put the market on its shoulders today, right?

而且正拖着市场往上走。

And is dragging it higher.

我觉得这种行为，虽然上涨时很美妙，但下跌时就很危险。

And I think that sort of behavior, while it's great when it's working to the upside, is dangerous on the downside.

这点你我之前讨论过。

And you and I have talked about this.

我知道我们最近几个月在《快钱》节目里说过，有时候人们会忘记这些股票下跌时也会过度反弹，就像现在这样，或者像前几周那样，但它们下跌时也会过度回调。

I know we have done it in fast money over the last few months, that sometimes people just forget that when these stocks go down, they overshoot to the upside as they might be doing right now, or they did last few weeks, but they overshoot to the downside.

回想2022年，从21年的高点算起，Meta、英伟达、特斯拉和奈飞都下跌了70%。

And back in 2022, from the '21 highs, we had Meta, we had Nvidia, we had Tesla, and we had Netflix all sell off 70%.

这你是知道的。

You know this.

我是说，这太疯狂了，人们认为这种情况不会再发生。

I mean, it's insane and people think that that can't happen again.

而这些正是你现在大量持有的股票，即使你只持有指数基金。

And those are the names that you are very well exposed to right now, even if you just own the indices.

是啊。

Yeah.

那么，你认为为什么会这样？

Well, why do you think that's happening?

只是因为现在资金流动比以前快得多吗？

Just because money is just moving a lot more quickly these days?

现在有太多方式可以押注、投资或交易这类股票，我们稍后会讨论证券化和金融化的全面渗透。

There's so many different ways to bet or invest or trade on these types of stocks, and we'll get later on into the securitization and financialization of everything.

但这是否因为资金流动加快，投资者想尽可能快地跟随趋势？

But is that because money is just moving quicker and and investors want to follow the the trend as fast as they can wherever they can?

没错。

Yeah.

我认为，这只是一个主题，你我在这行已经待得够久了，我们见证过几次这类巨大的长期市场动向，就是那些普遍的主题，但最终它们都会转化为市场波动，而且它们并非什么新鲜事。

I I think, you know, this is just a theme, and you and I have been in this business long enough, and we've seen a couple of these huge secular sort of moves, you know, like themes in general, but then they end up turning to moves in the markets, and they're not something.

就像如果我每次听到3D打印这个小主题都能赚一美元的话——还记得那个大约十、十二、十三年前的热潮吗？它们后来都变成了网红股，然后就被边缘化了。

Like if I had a dollar for every three d printing little theme, remember that one, ten, twelve, thirteen years ago, whatever it was, and this was like, they all became meme stocks, and they just go the wayside.

我们在 cannabis 行业也见过这种情况。

We saw it in cannabis.

我们还见过其他五个类似的主要主题，都伴随着股市的活跃表现。

We saw five other, like, major themes where there was, like, stock market activity.

但归根结底，它们只是市场中非常小的几个细分领域。

But in the end of the day, they were just really small little pockets within the market.

而当你看看像AI这样的东西，它很可能会渗透到市场的几乎每个领域。

When you look at something like AI, I mean, it is really likely to find itself moving into almost every sector in the market.

但目前来说，参与其中的唯一途径就是销售芯片、内存、存储设备、服务器或计算资源。

But right now, the only way to play it is if you sell chips, if you sell memory, if you sell storage, if you sell servers, if you sell compute.

对吧？

Right?

而在这背后是数千亿美元的投资，你知道的，就是那些投资。

And then behind that are hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, you know, like investments.

所以很难，一方面去赌它不会成功，另一方面你不如直接搭上这趟顺风车。

So it's hard to, a, bet against it, and b, you might as well just ride the train.

但就像我们常说的，我知道你经常思考风险与风险管理，关键在于，有方法可以避免像甲骨文那样的特定风险，明白我的意思吗？

But as we talk about all the time, and I know you think a lot about risk and risk management, it's like, okay, there are ways to not have the idiosyncratic risk like an Oracle, for instance, know what I mean?

它已经下跌了40%。

That's been down 40%.

你可以通过这些主要指数或一些更专业化的ETF获得投资敞口，只要它们不使用杠杆。

You can get exposure through these major indices or some more specialized sort of ETFs as long as, again, they're not using leverage in those.

不知道，老兄，你讨厌那些玩意儿。

Don't know, you hate those things, dude.

那些反向或者三倍杠杆之类的产品，诸如此类的东西。

Those like inverse or the like three times levered, that sort of stuff or whatever.

但你可以在投资这些主题时，不必承担过多特定风险，也不会被像甲骨文这样的股票套牢。

But you can invest in these themes without actually having too much idiosyncratic risk and being stuck with like an Oracle, that sort of thing.

是啊。

Yeah.

市场确实存在脆弱性。

There's vulnerability out there for sure.

而且有很多投资者在追逐交易，尤其是临近年底的时候。

And and there's a lot of investors chasing trades in, especially as we get towards the end of the year.

我们几个月前和Dan Niles聊过，他说要警惕年底行情，因为很多全球基金经理之前看跌，却在四月该看涨时错过了很多上涨机会。

We talked to Dan Niles a couple months back and he's like, watch the end of the year because there's a lot of global fund managers that have been pretty bearish that got bullish, you know, when they should have in April, but they missed out on a lot of upside.

所以可能会出现一些追涨行为，这当然意味着更大的波动性。

So there may be some chasing there, which means more volatility, of course.

但对投资者来说现在最重要的是什么？

But what matters now to investors?

因为盈利似乎一直是关键因素，我们这轮牛市很大程度上就是靠盈利支撑的，再加上三年前ChatGPT横空出世改变了一切。

Because earnings seem seem to be the thing that mattered most, and that's what we've been riding on really for a lot of this bull market plus, you know, ChatGPT coming out three years ago and revolutionizing everything.

但盈利表现一直很强劲。

But earnings have been strong.

大家现在都盯着美联储。

Everybody is kinda focused on the Fed.

这还重要吗？

Does that even matter anymore?

我是说，我想我们都知道利率的走向。

I mean, I think we all know the direction of interest rates.

像你这样的投资者真的那么在乎12月中旬会发生什么吗？毕竟你已经对2026年有预期了。

Do investors like you care so much about what's gonna happen in mid December because you know what you think is gonna happen in 2026?

嗯，我认为上周就是个很好的例子，说明这确实重要。

Well, I I think last week was a great example where I I think it does matter.

我是说，虽然我不明白为什么重要——如果我们讨论的是12月10日再降息25个基点的话。

I mean, like, you know, I I don't know why it does if we're talking about another 25 basis point cut on December 10.

对吧？

Right?

而且FOMC下次会议要等到1月下旬。

And then we don't have a meeting by the FOMC until late January.

但想想这个。

But think about this.

我是说，当CME联邦基金期货开始显示这将是个五五开的情况时，市场就开始抛售了。

I mean, the market started selling off when the CME Fed funds futures started indicating that it was going to be a toss-up fifty fifty.

对吧？

Right?

这大约是一周前的事，要知道，就在一个月前还有75%到80%的可能性会降息25个基点。

This was about a week ago, you know, down from like 75%, 80% likelihood just a month ago that you're gonna get this quarter point cut.

对吧？

Right?

然后这个概率在上周末上升到了35%，好吧。

And then that moved to 35%, okay, towards the end of last week.

然后在周五，你知道的，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯——这位与美联储主席鲍威尔关系密切的有影响力人物——表示这极有可能发生。

And then on Friday, you had, you know, fed Governor Williams here in New York, influential allied Fed Chair Powell say that it's more likely than not.

随后期货合约的概率升至约80%，这确实影响了市场，想想周五的低点就知道了。

And then the futures rise to about 80% and that did affect the markets when you think about even up the lows on Friday.

所以很容易说25个基点的降息对市场不应该有影响。

So it's easy to say that a 25 basis point cut shouldn't matter to the markets.

你知道货币政策那个‘长期且多变的滞后效应’的说法吧。

You know that term long and variable lags of monetary policy.

25个基点到底算得了什么？

What the heck is really a 25 basis point?

但我想这更多是信号意义。

But I guess it's more signaling.

再想想再过几次会议，总统就能任命自己的美联储主席了，可能还会有些新理事和地区行长之类的变动。

And then you think about in a few more meetings, the president is going to be able to install his own Fed chair, and there'll be probably some new governors and presidents and all that sort of stuff.

所以我们可能会面临一个非常不同的利率政策体系，但所有这些都伴随着通胀上升的风险。

And so we might be under a very different interest rate regime, but all of that comes with the potential for higher inflation.

我的意思是，想想这个。

I mean, just think about this.

我知道这只是经济学问题，对吧？

And I know this is just economics, right?

这不过是数学问题。

This is just math.

如果我们打算降低利率，而总统支持发放2000美元的刺激支票，这笔钱来自财政部的赤字而非盈余——让我们明确这一点：降低利率，向个人发放资金让他们去购买那些在供应不足时期本不该购买的商品。

If we are going to have lower interest rates, if the president is behind sending out $2,000 stimulus checks and it's coming out of the treasury, which does not have a surplus, let's be clear, lower interest rates, send money out to individuals to go out and buy things that they probably shouldn't be at a time where we have low supplies of the things that they want to buy.

这些都是通胀性的，对吧？

It's all inflationary, right?

所以如果这些都是通胀性的，那么收益率或利率在某个时点就不应该继续走低。

So if it's all inflationary, at some point yields or rates should not be going lower.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

这事情有点疯狂，但正如你所说，股市不在乎，因为利率降低和系统内更多资金对股价有利。

This is the thing that's kind of crazy, but to your point, stock market doesn't care because lower rates and more money in the system is good for stock prices.

这可能对盈利也有好处。

It's probably good for earnings.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

这一点毫无疑问。

No doubt about it.

所以即便只是稍有风声，你就能看到小盘股开始有些动作了。

And that's why even with with the whiff of it, you see small caps start to move a little bit.

对吧？

Right?

所以中盘股开始小幅波动。

So mid caps start to move a little bit.

但当风向转变时，天哪，它们动得可快了，因为如今投资者调仓速度极快。

But when the the cent changes the other direction, boy, do they move quickly because investors are so quick to move money these days.

我们来谈谈波动性，尤其是VIX指数。

Let's talk about volatility, and and the VIX in particular.

在存在这么多其他指标的情况下，它（VIX）还重要吗？

Does it matter, especially in your world, when there's so many other indicators?

我们连零日到期期权都有了。

We got zero days to even options.

我们拥有各种通过期权押注市场的方式，可以在极短时间内表达你的观点。

We got all these different ways to bet on the market through options and express yourself in very short periods of time.

但如今VIX波动率指数已攀升至25左右甚至更高，就像玩具店里冰淇淋掉地上的小孩一样尖叫着引人注目。

But the VIX now up in the mid twenties or higher, you know, screaming like a toddler in the toy store that just dropped its ice cream.

这个指标最近确实获得了更多关注，但它沉寂了太长时间。

That That is getting more attention lately, but it was so quiet for so long.

这对你来说真的重要吗？

Does it even matter to you?

说来有趣。

You know, it's funny.

我其实不怎么看VIX指数。

I don't look at the VIX a whole heck of a lot.

我知道它很适合做标题——无论是纸媒还是电视都称它为'恐慌指数'，诸如此类的说法。

I mean, I know that it makes good headlines, whether it's in print or whether it's on TV, they call it the fear index, all that sort of stuff.

我知道在大多数情况下，我们共同参与的这些环节中，它通常不会作为你使用的指标出现。

I know for the most part, it's not something all the segments that we do together, it's not something that usually comes up as something that you're using as an indicator.

有时它是滞后指标，对吧？

Sometimes it is backward looking, right?

我们知道何时会出现那些峰值，看看我们大致在什么位置触顶。

We know when we get those spikes, just look at where we kind of topped out.

周五早上那个26点左右的位置，再看看我们几个月前的情况。

Where is that 26 or something like that on Friday morning and look where we did just a couple months ago.

这些基本上就是标普500指数在下跌的底部。

And those are basically relative bottoms in the sell offs of the S and P 500.

对吧？

Right?

那么，我们如何重现四月份那样的行情波动呢？

So how do you get a move like we had going back to April?

嗯，你需要一些能真正打破投资者先前预期的东西。

Well, you need something that really disconnects investors from what expectations were prior.

这就是关税这类措施所起的作用。

And that's what the tariff sort of thing did.

我们过去一周经历的这波行情，刚才也讨论过，利率因素确实对其有些影响，但本质上还是动量变化和情绪转变，对吧？

This move that we just had over the last week, we just talked about how, yeah, the rate picture infused itself a little bit into it, but it really was just a move in momentum, a sentiment shift, right?

就像英伟达近期高点后的回调那样。

Like off of those recent highs about Nvidia.

我想我们都认同英伟达的季度表现和业绩指引非常出色。

I think we can all agree that Nvidia quarter and that guidance was great.

没有任何迹象表明AI交易已经结束，但这只是市场情绪的问题。

There was nothing in that to suggest that the AI trade is over, but it was a sentiment thing.

然后你看到VIX指数飙升，因为人们当时对这份报告过于自满，对吧？

And then you see the VIX spike because people were really complacent into that print, Right?

现在我们面临的情况是，我们得到了几条新闻头条。

And now we have a situation where we got a couple headlines.

我们得到了一个关于美联储的消息。

We got one on the Fed.

我们还收到了周五下午的头条新闻，政府正考虑允许向中国销售一定级别的英伟达GPU。

We also got that Friday afternoon headline where the administration is thinking about allowing a certain level of an NVIDIA GPU to be sold to China.

这让我们重新振作起来。

That took us off the mat.

然后突然间，你们又回到了这里。

And then all of a sudden you're back here.

在不久的将来，VIX指数很可能会回升到十几的水平。

The VIX is probably going to be a teenager at some point in the not so distant future.

所以当我思考波动性时，我认为它是同一枚硬币的正反两面。

So when I think about volatility, I think about it as opposite sides of the coin, the same coin.

对吧？

Right?

因此在我看来，当VIX指数达到20多且没有像四月份那样真正疯狂的情况时，我会对自己说，这可能是股市的一个局部低点。

And so to me, when you get a VIX in the mid-20s and there's nothing really crazy going on like we had in April, I say to myself, this is probably a local sort of low in the stock market.

是的。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

说得好。

Great point.

我想聊聊你最近节目中提到的一个话题——AI建设的金融化问题。

I wanna talk about something you brought up on your on one of your recent shows, the great podcast, that you do with with Guy about, the financialization of the AI build.

对吧？

Right?

我认为很多人都在讨论这是否存在泡沫。

I think a lot of people are talking about is there a bubble?

他们讨论的不仅仅是资产价格、股票价格。

And it's not just the asset prices that they're talking about, the stock prices.

他们讨论的是巨额资本支出或承诺在未来几年投入7000亿美元，用于建设AI基础设施、提升计算能力、扩建数据中心等等。

They're talking about the huge CapEx spend or pledges to spend this $700,000,000,000 over the next couple of years, you know, to build out AI infrastructure and more compute power and and more, more data centers, etcetera.

但其中很多已经金融化、证券化，可能带来潜在风险。

But a lot of it's has been financialized, securitized in ways that could be potentially risky.

请解释一下，因为我觉得这非常发人深省，而且这正是我所担忧的——与其说是股价问题（毕竟股价本身已包含市场情绪因素）。

Explain that because I thought it was so enlightening, and that's the thing that I think I'm worried about, not the stock prices so much because the stock prices are you know, they have this emotion built into them as well.

好的。

Alright.

让我们回溯到一月份。

Let's go all the way back to January.

那是本届政府上任的第一周，我们看到大批CEO——不仅是科技公司CEO——纷纷前往白宫，在椭圆形办公室宣布他们将投入数千亿美元。

It's the first week of this administration, and we saw, you know, a whole host of CEOs, not just tech CEOs kinda going down into the White House, making an announcement in the Oval Office about these hundreds of billions of dollars that they're gonna spend.

这些投资甚至不必全都用于数据中心。

It didn't even have to be on data centers.

当时各行业领袖为了赢得政府好感，纷纷做出各种不同的承诺声明。

A whole host of different folks that made a whole different group of proclamations that were trying to get in the good graces of the administration.

对吧？

Right?

其中最关键的人物包括甲骨文创始人兼CEO拉里·埃里森、日本软银CEO孙正义，以及OpenAI CEO山姆·奥特曼。

Well, the most important one was Larry Ellison, who is obviously CEO, founder of Oracle, Masa, who is the CEO of SoftBank in Japan, and Sam Altman, who is the CEO of OpenAI.

可以说当时OpenAI可能是全世界最重要的公司，就股市而言，就资金流动而言，无论资金是流向他们。

Now you can say OpenAI was probably at the time the most important company in the entire world as far as the stock market, as far as just moving money around, whether it was coming into them.

他们迄今已筹集600亿美元，并对外承诺将投入这600亿美元。所以这个被称为'星际之门'的项目将成为一项庞大的人工智能计划。

They've raised $60,000,000,000 so far and the commitments that they've made externally to spend that $60,000,000,000 So this idea that was going be this stargate was going to be this huge AI project.

这显然将涉及人工智能软件、开发和大语言模型，但同时也将包括其背后的基础设施。

It was going to be obviously AI software and development and large language models, but it was also going to be the infrastructure behind it.

他们谈到了一项5000亿美元的投入承诺。

And they talked about a half $1,000,000,000,000 commitment.

好的。

All right.

埃隆·马斯克当时与政府关系密切，他几乎立即在推特上回应此事，作为XAI的CEO，他有很多理由表示他们没有资金进行这样的建设。

Elon Musk, who was very close to the administration at the time, he basically tweeted out almost immediately after that, and he had a lot of reasons for doing that as the CEO of XAI also saying they don't have the money to do that build out.

那么，让我们快进到现在的情况。

Alright, so let's flash forward to where we are right now.

到今年年底，South Bank本应出资300亿美元资助星际之门项目。

South Bank was supposed to fund Stargate to the tune of $30,000,000,000 by the end of the year.

他们只完成了75亿美元。

They've only done 7,500,000,000.0.

好的。

Okay.

甲骨文获得了这份巨额合同。

Oracle got this huge contract.

这要追溯到9月10日。

This is going back to September 10.

好的，基本上是3000亿美元用于构建计算设施和数据中心，供OpenAI使用。

Okay, of basically $300,000,000,000 to build out the compute, to build out the data centers that OpenAI would use.

投资者对此非常兴奋，但后来人们意识到，他们其实没有这笔资金，对吧？

Investors got really excited about it, but then folks were like, they don't have the money, right?

所以他们不得不转向债务市场，我记得最初需要筹集200亿美元。

So they had to go to the debt markets and they had to raise 20,000,000,000, I think initially.

现在他们又在追加300亿美元的融资。

Now they're doing another 30,000,000,000.

他们的债务股本比高达500%。

Their debt to equity ratio was 500%.

微软Azure、谷歌云和亚马逊AWS的区别在于，它们早已拥有这些云业务。

The difference between Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Amazon AWS, they already had these cloud businesses.

它们利用自身现金流来资助扩张。

They were using their cash flow to fund their expansion.

但甲骨文的情况则不同。

But Oracle did not have that same situation.

因此它们不得不转向债务市场融资。

So they had to go to the debt markets.

就连没有云业务的Meta，在花费数千亿美元试图将其AI业务推向所谓的'超级智能'（尽管没人知道那究竟是什么以及何时能实现）时，

Then even Meta, which doesn't have a cloud business, which has been spending hundreds of billions of dollars to kind of move their AI business towards something called super intelligence with nobody knows what it is and when we're going to happen to be there.

也不得不通过举债来资助路易斯安那州数据中心的建设。

They had to fund a data center build in Louisiana through debt.

这笔债务并未体现在它们的资产负债表上。

It was off their balance sheet.

他们投入了几十亿美元。

They put up a couple billion dollars.

一家名为Blue Owl的公司投入了几十亿美元的股权资金。

A company called Blue Owl put up a few billion dollars in equity.

他们从KKR筹集现金来进行这种债务驱动的运营。

They raised cash from KKR to make this debt driven sort of operation.

突然间，Meta这家全球市值最高的公司之一接手了一个数据中心项目，他们只需投入几十亿美元的股权资金，其余由债务融资。

And all of a sudden you have Meta, one of the highest market cap companies in the world taking on a data center project where they only had to put up a few billion dollars in equity and it's funded by debt.

而且这些都挂在资产负债表外。

And you're like off their balance sheet.

你会觉得，等等，这是怎么回事？

You're like, wait, what's going on here?

地球上最大、最赚钱的公司竟然无法为这些事情提供资金。

The biggest, most profitable companies in the planet can't fund these things.

这就是Meta面临的核心问题。

And that was the meta problem.

如果你们想调出Meta的股价图，就能看到发生了什么。

If you guys want to pull up the meta chart, you see what's happened.

他们不再因这些账单获得回报。

They're no longer being rewarded for these bills.

所以这种金融化操作，比如Blue Owl和KKR，你会看到它们被打包，然后通过金融手段进入私人信贷ETF，最终出现在你们的401k养老金账户里。

So the financialization of this, so Blue Owl and KKR, and you're going see this packaged up and you're going see this finance way into private credit ETFs that are going be in your 401ks.

明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

因为资金会被配置到这类产品中。重点在于——绕了一大圈说这些金融化现象，它不再仅来自这些公司的现金流和它们曾经拥有的巨额现金储备，但这些现金储备正在被耗尽。

Because they're going be allocated towards it and stuff like So that's the point, a long winded way of saying the financialization of all this, it's no longer just from the cash flow of these companies and these huge cash piles that these companies had, but the cash piles are being depleted.

这正在拖累它们的现金流。

It's weighing on their cash flows.

如果能做到表外融资，他们就会这么做。

If you can get it off balance sheet, you are.

这就是当前正在发生的情况。

And that's what's going on right now.

所以迟早，如果对这种计算能力的需求放缓，那么就会出现问题，因为这些公司基本上已经消耗了大量现金，并且正在对现金流施加压力，你明白我的意思吗？为了扩张。

So sooner or later, if demand slows down for this compute, then you're going to have a problem because these companies are basically going to have used a lot of their cash and they're putting pressure on their cash flows, you know what I mean, To build out.

如果需求没有实现，如果技术需要更长时间才能达到AGI和超级智能，那么这些公司就会像扛着一个沉重枷锁一样承受压力。

And if the demand doesn't materialize, if the technology takes longer to get to AGI and superintelligence, then these companies are gonna be having this kind of weighed on them like a big yoke.

是的。

Yeah.

重新引用有史以来最伟大的节目，这一切都是相连的，因为这将通过私募股权发行实现金融化，根据劳工部规则制定的一些调整，这些发行刚刚被允许进入我们的401k计划。

And to requote the greatest show of all time, it's all connected because this will be financialized through private equity offerings that will have just been allowed to be in our four zero one k's according to some adjustments in the Department of Labor's rulemaking.

所以这一切都是相连的，这就是为什么我认为像你这样真正了解情况的人会有点担心。

So it is all connected, and that's why I think people who actually know what's going on like you are a little bit concerned about.

好吧。

Alright.

除此之外，除了我们现在得到的政府数据非常陈旧过时，在某种程度上我们已经超越了这些数据来寻找信息。

Beyond this and beyond the fact that the government data we're getting now is super old and and stale and we kinda are past that in terms of what we look for.

你在关注什么？

What do you look for?