BTC243：吉姆·查诺斯与皮埃尔·罗夏德关于MSTR mNAV的辩论（比特币播客）

您正在收听TIP。

You're listening to TIP.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

欢迎收听本周三更新的《比特币基础》播客。

Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin fundamentals podcast.

今天的节目，我们请到了两位特别嘉宾，就比特币储备公司以及它们在市场中应获得的溢价展开一场讨论。

On today's show, we have two very special guests to have a little debate about Bitcoin treasury companies and the premiums they should potentially fetch in the market.

一方是著名的做空大师吉姆·陈诺斯先生。

On the one side of the debate, we have legendary short seller, mister Jim Chanos.

他是华尔街的老将，曾准确做空安然公司等多家企业，名声赫赫。

He's a Wall Street veteran with legendary calls like shorting Enron amongst many others.

另一方是长期比特币先驱、金融专家皮埃尔·罗夏先生，他主张这些储备公司理应获得市场溢价。

And then on the other corner, we have mister Pierre Rochard, who's a longtime Bitcoin OG and financial expert defending the premium that should be paid for these treasury companies.

皮埃尔和他的朋友迈克尔·戈德斯坦，是那篇关于比特币对美元发起投机性冲击论文的原始作者，这篇论文在比特币圈里被频繁提及，但很多人并不知道皮埃尔才是第一个写下它的人。

Pierre and his friend, Michael Goldstein, were the originators of the paper on Bitcoin's speculative attack on the dollar, which many people in the Bitcoin space hear all the time, but might not know Pierre was the first person to write about it.

如果你在金融行业，一定会喜欢这场对话。

So if you're in finance, you're probably going to love this conversation.

如果你只是个旁观者，可能会觉得有些金融术语有点难懂，但我尽量让内容通俗易懂，一路上都会解释清楚。

If you're more of a casual observer, the financial jargon might be a little heavy at times, but I really try my hardest to make it accessible for all the listeners and wrap up and provide descriptions along the way.

最后我想说一句，我特别欣赏互联网和社交媒体的力量。

One last thing I just wanna say, I love the power of the Internet and online social media.

别笑得太厉害，但这场对话之所以发生，是因为X平台上一个叫Spacebull HODL 58 k 13 percenter ADIQ hoarding man made numbers的人。

Don't laugh too hard, but this whole conversation happened because one person on X who goes by the name Spacebull HODL 58 k 13 percenter ADIQ hoarding man made numbers.

是的。

Yes.

他的整个网名就是这场对话的起因，全是因为他们之间轻松的互动。

That's his entire handle online is the reason this whole conversation happened in the first place because of the friendly banter that was happening.

现在这事儿，真不是编都能编出来的。

So, guys, you can't make this stuff up anymore.

能在这个环境里做事，真是太有意思了。

What a fun place to operate.

我就说这些了。

That's all I got.

希望你们喜欢这期节目。

I hope you guys enjoy the show.

庆祝十周年。

Celebrating 10.

您现在收听的是由投资者播客网络出品的《比特币基础》。

You are listening to Bitcoin fundamentals by The Investor's Podcast Network.

接下来有请我们的主持人，普雷斯顿·派施。

Now for your host, Preston Pysch.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

欢迎收听本期节目。

Welcome to the show.

今天这期内容特别精彩。

We got a hot one here.

网上最近讨论可真多，大家对这次和皮埃尔·罗夏、吉姆·钱诺斯的对话都特别兴奋。吉姆是传奇的空头交易员，皮埃尔则是比特币领域的传奇人物。

Boy, there's been a lot of chatter online and a lot of excitement for this discussion with Pierre Rochard, Jim Chanos, legendary short trader, and Pierre Rochard, legendary Bitcoiner.

今天我们来聊聊微策略公司。

So we're talking about micro strategy.

讨论的重点是比特币储备型公司，以及它们的市值是否应该因为持有比特币而获得额外溢价。

We're talking about Bitcoin treasury companies and whether there should be a multiple paid on top of their treasury or their mNAV.

为了开启这个话题，我打算先做个铺垫，因为接下来一个小时的内容可能会非常专业。

And to start off this conversation, what I'm gonna try to do, because this is gonna get probably very technical in the next hour.

我想为普通听众理清思路，尤其是那些不太熟悉金融术语的人——先解释清楚吉姆为什么看空微策略的普通股，然后再深入展开。

And what I wanna do for the average listener that maybe isn't dialed into all the financial jargon is I wanna try to frame this up so that they understand Jim's position of why he's taking this short position on MSTR's common stock, and then we'll go from there.

如果你是在YouTube上看直播，现在屏幕上会显示一张图表。

So if you're watching on YouTube, you're gonna see the chart.

如果你是听音频版，可能听不到图表的细节，但我强烈建议你回头去YouTube上看看这张图，它能帮你更直观地理解整个逻辑。

If you're listening on audio, you're only gonna hear this, and I would highly encourage you to go back to the YouTube to kinda see this specific chart because I think it's graphically gonna help make sense for everybody.

来，我们看一下。

But here you go.

我先把图表调出来。

I'm gonna pull up the chart.

看这个图，上面这条线是MicroStrategy的普通股股价。

And when we look at this chart, the number that's higher is the, MicroStrategy common stock.

下面这条线是比特币的表现，时间是从MicroStrategy开始实施比特币资产策略那会儿起。

The lower number there is Bitcoin's performance, and this is from the start of when MicroStrategy started a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Jim，我可不是在替你说话。

And, Jim, I'm not trying to put words in your mouth.

我只是想帮你把背景说清楚。

I'm just trying to frame this up.

如果我说得有不对的地方，你随时纠正我。

So if I say anything that isn't accurate, just kind of correct me here.

简单说，Jim的观点是，图上这个价差迟早会收窄，最终跟比特币走势靠拢。

But in short, Jim's position is he expects this spread that you're seeing in the chart to collapse and somewhat track what Bitcoin's doing.

他认为现在的溢价高得离谱。

That this is overdone is Jim's position.

皮埃尔的观点是，这属于市场的正常表现，而且这种状况会持续下去。他认为，那些负责任地持有比特币作为 treasury 的公司，其股价理应比比特币本身的表现高出一个溢价。至于这个溢价具体是多少——是像图表里显示的这么多，还是稍微低一点，甚至更高——他认为这种溢价关系在未来会一直存在。

Pierre's position is that this is a normal market behavior and that this is gonna continue to persist that a Bitcoin treasury company that does this responsibly should have some type of premium above Bitcoin's performance, whether it's this much performance that we're seeing on the chart or somewhat below that or even higher than that, that is something that is gonna continue to persist into the future.

我先请吉姆谈谈。

I'm gonna start with Jim.

我刚才结合这张图表做的总结，准确吗？

Did I frame that correctly as we're looking at this chart?

差不多吧。

Sort of.

这两条线分别代表比特币的价格和MicroStrategy每股股票的价格。

In the two lines are the price of 1 Bitcoin and the price of one share of MicroStrategy.

对吗？

Correct?

没错。

Correct.

但问题在于，这可不是真正的交易逻辑。

Well, the problem, of course, is that's not the trade.

真正的交易逻辑是，MicroStrategy 自己承认并设计了每股市值对应的比特币数量在持续增加。

The trade is that MicroStrategy, by its own admission and design, has been increasing the amount of Bitcoin per share of MicroStrategy.

所以你真正该看的是 mNAV 图表，也就是 MicroStrategy 股价相对于其每股市值应有比特币数量的溢价部分。

So what you really wanna look at is the mNAV chart, which is the premium over the requisite amount of Bitcoin per share that MicroStrategy trades at.

这一点非常关键，因为我在社交媒体上看到很多人贴这种图表的变体。

That's a really important part because I see on social media, people put derivations of this type of chart.

你看 MicroStrategy 相比比特币涨了多少。

Look how much MicroStrategy has outperformed Bitcoin.

但事实上，你在这段时间里买入的是相对于一股 MicroStrategy 股票所对应的比特币。

But, of course, you would have been buying Bitcoin relative to one share of short MicroStrategy over this period.

在这段时间里，MicroStrategy 每股持有的比特币数量明显增加了。

The amount of Bitcoin per share micro strategy has had over this period has increased rather, you know, meaningfully.

所以这是个很重要的前提。

So that's an important caveat.

Pierre，我刚才说的有什么需要补充或修正的吗？

And, Pierre, is there anything that you wanna clean up from what I said?

说实话，我并没有持有太多MicroStrategy的股票。

So, I mean, to be clear, I'm not a big micro strategy holder.

我自己主要是看比特币。

I'm a Bitcoin guy myself.

所以从原则上讲，我本该非常理解Chanos先生的观点，也不希望其他资产跑赢比特币。

And so, a priori, I I should be very sympathetic to mister Chanos' perspective and that I don't want other assets outperforming Bitcoin.

不过，我也仔细听了他公开表达的那些论点，发现其中很多地方我并不认同。

That said, I also have been listening very carefully to the arguments that he's put forth publicly, and I have found a lot to disagree with in those arguments.

我觉得，相对于净资产值出现溢价，并不奇怪，也完全没必要一直做空。

And I think that having a premium to NAV is not unnatural or something that is wise too short at all times.

对吧？

Right?

也许你可以 argue 说，现在市场过热了，可以做个短线操作。

Maybe you could make an argument for a swing trade of, oh, it's overheated at this point.

我会因此持有一个观点。

I'm going to take a view.

但这一点我并不意外，而且我认为有很强的结构性理由说明均衡的mNAV应该高于1。

But that it wouldn't surprise me, and I think there's very strong structural arguments for why the equilibrium mNAV is greater than one.

明白了。

Okay.

那我们来深入聊聊你刚才说的那番话，Pierre。你是在观察这个情况，我说了，我先把图表调下来，这样我们能看得更清楚。

So let's dive into the comment that you just said there, Pierre, which is you're looking at this and you're saying, and I'm gonna pull the chart down so we can see each other.

你意思是，从短期来看，如果你觉得市场过热了，像吉姆那样操作是有道理的。

You're saying that in the short term, putting on a trade like what Jim's doing could make sense if you feel like it's overdone.

我这样理解对吗？

Is that properly stated?

对。

Yeah.

但这一点其实普遍适用。

But that's generically true.

对吧？

Right?

所以你可以做多英伟达，做空比特币，在某个时间段内跑赢市场。

So you could go long Nvidia, short Bitcoin, and outperform within some given time frame.

但我真正不同意的，是背后的逻辑，而不是交易的时机。

But really what I'm disagreeing with is the underlying thesis, not the timing of a trade.

明白了。

Okay.

吉姆，你怎么回应这一点？

Jim, how do you respond to that?

我好像听到的是，逻辑本身没问题，只是时机可能不太对。

I thought I heard the opposite was that the thesis makes sense and the timing may be off.

不过好吧。

But okay.

无论如何，我们应该明白一点，目前的mNAV大约是1.9，而它是从去年三月才开始涨到这个水平的。

In any case, we should understand something that given where the mNAV is now, about 1.9, it only got here since last March.

也就是说，过去十五到十六个月的时间里。

So over the last fifteen, sixteen months.

在此之前，从2020年Sailor比特币策略启动开始，mNAV长期在1到1.2之间波动，期间我还记得曾两次跌到1.0。

Prior to that, from the beginning of Sailor's Bitcoin strategy in 2020, the mNAV really traded between one and one point two for long periods of time and traded down to one point o, I believe, twice over that time period.

所以这其实是过去一年多才发生的事。

So this is really something that's happened in the last little over a year.

对我来说特别有意思的是，我们在去年12月就为客户介入了这个策略。

And what makes it to me interesting, and we got involved with this for our clients in December of last year.

我在去年12月5日的年度投资会议上就提过这个想法。

I gave this as an idea at my annual investment conference on December 5.

那时候mNAV大概在2.5左右，而我们现在看到的是真正的催化剂出现了。

I think the mNAV was about 2.5 at that point, Is that we now see catalysts.

在这样的相对价值交易里，出现催化剂是非常罕见的。

It's very unusual in these sort of relative value trades to have catalysts.

对吧？

Right?

你买一样东西，同时卖另一样，赚的是价差，只盼着投资者能意识到问题，然后做出反应。

You're buying one thing and you're selling the other the same thing for some premium, and you hope that investors, you know, realize that and act accordingly.

但这次情况完全不同。

In this case, it's dramatically different.

这家公司实际上在帮我们缩小价差，通过积极发行普通可转换债券——我们待会儿也会谈到优先股——就是为了抓住这部分溢价，用这笔钱去买更多比特币。

You actually have the company at question working in your favor to close that spread by selling common convertible, and we'll get to the preferreds, I'm sure, during this discussion, pretty aggressively to actually try to capture some of that premium in order to buy more Bitcoin.

所以，是公司自己在主动缩小价差。

So you have the company itself working to close the spread.

这才是关键区别。

That's the difference.

但一年前左右，这种情况在规模上根本不存在。

And that was not really the case in material amounts prior to a year ago or so.

我对历史上的mNAV数据有点不同看法。

I would push back on the historical mNAV.

我觉得如果我们回溯到2020年8月他们刚起步的时候，那些早期数据其实可以排除，但当时溢价可是超过六倍的。

I think that if we go back to August 2020 when they started, we could exclude those data points, but it was over six x.

后来慢慢回落，在2022年5月一度跌到低于一倍，持续了一个月左右，之后又反弹了。

And then it drifted down it drifted down to less than one for approximately one month, May 2022, before bouncing back.

自2022年5月之后，它就一直高于一倍了。

And it has bounced above one x since that May 2022.

所以当我从更宏观的角度看这个mNAV时，我觉得背后有根本性的原因在推动它高于一倍。

And so when I zoom out and look at that mNAV, I think that there are fundamental reasons that are pushing the mNAV above one.

我觉得原因主要有两个。

And I think that they're twofold.

正如Chanos先生提到的，这家公司对MSTR的发行拥有垄断权。

To mister Chanos' point, strategy has a monopoly on the issuance of MSTR.

我认为这才是它和ETF的根本区别。

And I think this is really what differentiates it from an ETP.

对吧？

Right?

ETF的话，授权参与者之间会相互竞争，负责创建底层金融工具——也就是基金份额。

With an ETP, you have authorized participants that are competing against each other on the creation of the underlying or sorry, the financial instrument, right, of the shares.

这意味着，授权参与者才能赚取实物比特币与公开市场交易份额之间的价差。

And that essentially means that the authorized participants are the ones that are capturing the spread between the physical Bitcoin in the trust and the shares that are being traded on the public market.

而对于MSTR来说，这部分价值完全归策略公司所有，因为只有他们能发行更多MSTR股份，这种稀释带来的增值效应实际上提升了普通股的价值。

And so with the case of MSTR, that value exclusively accrues to strategy because they are the only ones that can create more MSTR shares, and that benefits the common stock from that accretive dilution perspective.

所以我认为，这正是推动mNAV高于1的一个关键因素，也促使管理层尽量减少ATM发行，以推高mNAV。

And so I think that's one is is that factor that drives the mNAV above one and gives management an incentive to limit the ATM use in order to drive up the mNAV.

另一个因素是杠杆带来的期权价值。

The other is the the option value of leverage.

过去，他们曾通过可转换债券和永续优先股等方式行使过这种杠杆期权。

Now historically, they have exercised that option value at times in the form of convertible bonds and in the form of perpetual preferred stock.

这一点和iBit这样的ETF截然不同，因为后者根本没有加杠杆的选项。

And that is also very different from an ETP like iBit where they do not have the option to lever up.

当MicroStrategy使用杠杆时，其资本成本——也就是债务利率——与比特币回报之间的差额，就会全部转化为普通股的收益。

And so that when MicroStrategy levers up, the difference, the spread between their cost of capital, the cost of the debt, and Bitcoin's returns, that accrues to the common stock.

所以我认为，正是这两个核心因素，使得像策略公司这样的企业，在正常市场环境下，理应以高于1的mNAV交易，而不是像iBit这样的ETF。

And so the I think that those are the two big factors that mean that unlike iBit ETP, we should expect a company like Strategy to trade at a mNAV greater than one under normal market conditions.

我得补充一点，如果遇到像2022年那样的严重熊市，它的交易价格确实可能低于净值，但那并不是常态。

I would add an asterisk of, yes, if there is a severe bear market like we saw in 2022, you could see it trading at a discount, but that that is not an equilibrium position.

我对这个说法的看法是，把MSTR和ETF直接比较其实有点误导。

Well, my response to that was I think there's a bit of a false equivalent in comparing it to the ETF.

你真正该比的，其实是像你这样的投资者。

Your real equivalent is actually someone like you.

对吧？

Right?

真正有选择权的，是那些自己决定怎么投资的人。

It's the actual investor who has the choice of luck to make.

所以我的想法是，你要么选MicroStrategy，赌它这个飞轮效应的策略，要么就自己直接买比特币。

And so my view is is that the choice is whether I'm going to buy micro strategy for this flywheel type strategy, it's called, or if I'm going to buy Bitcoin directly myself.

我自己也可以用个人资产负债表加杠杆。

And I can lever my own balance sheet.

你说的公司结构里那种杠杆优势，我觉得完全被公司架构带来的代理风险和双重征税给抵消了。

There are what you say is the option value of doing it in a corporate structure is, I think, more than offset by the agency risk and double taxation that exists in the corporate structure.

但很少有人提到这一点。

And not a lot of people talk about that.

实际上，你上面还压着联邦税务负债，虽然可以推迟到他们清算或卖出微策略股票时才缴纳，但最终资本利得税是比特币持有者和普通股股东都逃不掉的。

That in effect, you've got a preference above you of federal tax liabilities, admittedly deferred until they liquidate or sell the micro strategy, and then any capital gains, of course, that both a Bitcoin holder and a holder of common stock have.

更别说，你手里拿的只是一张纸。

On top of that, you are actually owning a piece of paper.

你根本没拥有比特币。

You don't own Bitcoin.

历史上，几乎所有类似的情况里，这类结构都因为这些原因交易价格低于净资产值。

So historically, and in almost all other types of of situations like this, these types of structures have traded they tended to trade at a discount to NAV for those reasons.

但这次却溢价交易，我觉得这完全没道理。

In this case, we're trading at a premium, and I think it's unwarranted.

所以我觉得，我们在这一点上其实看法很一致：持有现货比特币并自己保管，和持有微策略的股票，各有优劣。

So I think this is where we do have a lot of agreement, which is that there are trade offs between holding spot Bitcoin, you know, self custody in cold storage versus holding shares in strategy.

你已经把最重要的几点都点出来了。

And you've highlighted the most important ones.

不过，我觉得我们也不能低估了在冷钱包里持有现货比特币并加杠杆的难度。

I think, though, that we can't underestimate the difficulty of getting leverage on spot Bitcoin in cold storage.

通常你得把比特币交给托管方保管。

Typically, you have to deposit the Bitcoin with a custodian.

这样一来，你就又多了一层代理风险。

So you're already adding the agency risk there.

而且托管方提供的条件，远不如Micro Strategy能拿到的条款。

And then the terms on that are really much worse than the terms that strategy is accessing.

作为个人，如果你用比特币做抵押借款，通常只能借到一年期的贷款。

So typically, when you're borrowing against your Bitcoin as an individual, you might get a one year term.

如果我们看比特币的周期，历史上一般都是四年一轮。

And if we look at Bitcoin cycles, typically, they've historically been four years.

所以一年期的贷款根本撑不过一个完整周期。

So it doesn't get you through the cycle.

而且利率还高得多，因为你没法像持有股票那样，利用期权的上行波动率偏斜来获利。

And that a much higher interest rate as well because you don't have the ability to monetize the upward volatility skew of the options on the equity.

再加上最差的借贷条件，你还要面对资产流动性差的问题。

And then on top of the worst debt terms that you have, you also have the illiquidity of the position.

对吧？

Right?

也就是说，要想退出这个头寸，你必须先去杠杆，卖掉比特币，而不是像卖股票那样简单出手。

Which is that in order to get out of the position, you have to essentially delever and sell the Bitcoin versus just selling the stock.

所以我认为，迈克尔·萨勒先生能拿到的那些条款——比如零利率、期限超过四年的可转债，或者股息率10%的永续优先股——个人持有冷钱包比特币是根本享受不到的。

So I think that the ability to access the terms that mister Saylor has with either a 0% convertible bond that has a greater than four year term or a perpetual preferred that has a 10% coupon or dividend, that is not accessible to individuals holding Bitcoin in cold storage.

因此，我不同意那种说法，从实际数据来看，市场显然认为这种结构是有价值的。

And so that's where I would disagree that just empirically, I think that the market is saying there's value in that.

明白了。

Okay.

我来谈谈我的看法。

Here's my viewpoint on that.

你说得没错。

And what you're saying is accurate.

但这也凸显了我跟别人在社交媒体上争论这个交易时，一直强调的一个根本问题：这个头寸在你整体投资组合里占的比例有多大。

However, it underscores, I think, a fundamental issue that I have when I spar with people on social media about this trade, others, is the size of this position relative to your overall portfolio.

如果我整个投资组合都是比特币，而且存在冷钱包里，那你说得对。

So if my entire portfolio is Bitcoin and cold storage, you are correct.

对吧？

Right?

但正如你所说，用冷钱包里的比特币获得好的融资条件确实很难。

It's difficult to get good credit terms on that for all the reasons you correctly point out.

但如果我是个普通的投资者，或者是个机构，比特币只占我总资产或风险资产的5%、10%、20%，那这个问题就根本不成立。

But if I'm a more typical investor or an institution, right, and Bitcoin is 5% or 10% or 20% of my overall asset allocation or risk asset allocation, then it's a moot point.

对吧？

Right?

我还有其他很多方式可以拿股票、房地产这些资产去抵押借款，钱都是通用的。

I have all kinds of other ways to borrow against other equities, real estate, whatever it might be, and the dollars are fungible.

我真正担心的是，每次和别人争论这个话题时，我都明显感觉到，他们真的是极端比特币信仰者。

The problem I have is that when I have this debate with people, it becomes very apparent to me that they are truly maxi Bitcoiners.

对吧？

Right?

他们的大部分净资产或投资组合都集中在比特币或与比特币相关的证券上。

That the vast majority about all of their net worth or investment portfolio is in Bitcoin or Bitcoin related securities.

我想在这里强调一个非常重要的观点。

Now I wanna point out a really important point here.

我所操作并推荐给客户的这笔交易，占我们投资组合的比例不到5%。

This trade, as I have it on and as I've recommended it to clients, is less than 5% of our portfolio.

这就像有些人总爱挑特斯拉的毛病，却没意识到就算在最差的时候，特斯拉在我们2020年的投资组合里也没超过4%。

It's sort of like people who like to love to knock us on Tesla, not realizing that Tesla, even at its worst point, was no more than 4% of our portfolio in 2020.

明白吗？

Okay?

我们持有的是一组分散的风险头寸。

So it's a diversified portfolio of risk positions.

这四十年来一直是我们一贯的做法。

It's been our history over forty years.

明白吗？

Okay?

这不是百分之百。

It's not a 100%.

我不是完全做空微策略、做多比特币。

I'm not a 100% short micro strategy and long Bitcoin.

这个差异其实大大改变了我们讨论中很多问题的权衡，我觉得。

And so that difference really changes the utility curve on a lot of this in a lot of our debate, I think.

因为对那些把比特币作为投资组合一部分、但不是全部的机构或个人来说，他们其实可以加杠杆。

Because, again, I think for an institution or an individual that has Bitcoin as some reasonable part of their portfolio, but not a 100% of their portfolio, they can get leverage.

他们可以用其他资产作为抵押，以比较有利的条件加杠杆。

Now they can get leverage on relatively favorable terms on their other assets.

所以我觉得，如果你站在风险谱系的这一边，这种视角确实会影响这场讨论。

And so I think that perspective, where you're standing on that side of the risk spectrum, I think makes a difference in this debate.

是的。

Yeah.

我建议这些机构用其他资产做抵押，增持比特币。

And I would encourage those institutions to leverage up against their other assets and buy Bitcoin.

我觉得这会是一个非常不错的交易。

I think that would be a really good trade.

其实归根结底，我是听了你和乔·维森塔尔在《Odd Lots》上的对话才想到的。

And so, really, it comes down to and this is from listening to, you with Joe Wiesenthal on odd lots.

优先股市场的规模，以及比特币长期增长率超过优先股股息率这一点。

The size of the market for preferreds and the long term growth rate for Bitcoin, outpacing the dividend rate on the preferreds.

所以我同意你的看法，永续优先股或者普通优先股这个市场之所以小，是因为现有的产品都不怎么样。

And so that's where I think that I can agree with you that the size for perpetual preferreds or even preferred stock as a market is small, I would argue that it's small because the existing products are no good.

而你们的策略就是推出比这些更优的产品。

And then strategy is putting together products that are superior to those.

如果我们看过去半年左右的市场表现，它们的表现远超其他优先股。

And if we look at their performance in the market over the past six months or so, they have done much better than the rest of the preferreds.

这会吸引资本流入，推动策略相关市场以及那些选择发行优先股的杠杆比特币资产的发展。

And that that will attract capital, and that that will grow that market for strategy and for other leveraged Bitcoin equities that choose to pursue the approach of issuing preferreds.

只要比特币的长期增长率高于票息，普通股的价值就会持续增长，这也解释了为什么它的估值可以超过一倍的净资产价值。

And that as long as Bitcoin's long term growth rate is greater than the coupon, value will accrue to the common stock and justifies a greater than one mNAV.

好的。

Okay.

还有几点

Couple of

关于这个。

things on that.

对。

Yes.

最近优先股的表现其实比普通股更好。

The preferreds have actually outperformed the common recently.

我不确定这对普通股的短期来说是好是坏。

So I don't know if that's good or bad, the near term for the common.

不过有几件事。

But a few things.

首先，截至昨天或前天，MicroStrategy的总净债务加上优先股，约占其企业价值的9%。

First of all, the total net debt plus preferreds relative to the enterprise value of MicroStrategy, at least as of yesterday or the day before, was about 9% of their enterprise value.

这110亿美元占他们1300亿美元企业价值的份额。

It's about $11,000,000,000 out of a 130,000,000,000 in enterprise value.

所以，这相当于他们市值的9%。

So it's 9% of their capitalization at market.

他们为这9%的资本支付的收益率，几乎达到了两位数。

They are paying pretty much close to double digits, the yield, on that 9% of their capital.

所以目前他们是一家没有杠杆的公司。

So they are an unlevered company right now.

如果他们为9%的资本支付接近税后10%的收益率，那当优先股占到资本结构的50%时，他们得付多少？

And if they are paying on 9% of their capital, if they are paying 10% yields after tax or close to after tax, what are they going to be paying if preferred becomes 50% of their capitalization?

那肯定远高于10%了。

It's gonna be a lot higher than 10%.

如果他真想大幅增加优先股比例，我猜很快就会出现交叉效应。

And so you're gonna get a crossover effect pretty quickly, I suspect, if he really wants to ramp the preferreds.

这一点还有待观察。

And I think that that remains to be seen.

我们当然可以争论，但信息实在不够。

So we can argue it, but we just don't have enough information.

目前，优先股在微策略的资本结构中只占很小一部分，正如我之前说的。

Right now, the preferreds are, as I said, just a small part of the capitalization of MicroStrategy.

这又回到了马特·莱文最近播客里提到的一个观点：人们觉得买微策略，就是买一个加杠杆买比特币的工具。

And it goes back to something that Matt Levine pointed out in his recent podcast, and that is the perception that if I'm buying MicroStrategy, I'm buying a leveraged vehicle to buy Bitcoin.

但事实上，如果你买的是微策略的普通股，你并没有获得杠杆。

But the fact of the matter is if you're buying MicroStrategy common, you're not getting levered.

所谓杠杆，是指你投入一美元，能控制超过一美元的比特币。

The idea of being levered is having more than a dollar of Bitcoin for the dollar I put up.

这才叫杠杆。

That's leverage.

实际上，因为存在溢价，你每花一美元，买到的比特币只值六毛或五毛。

In fact, because of the premium, the mNAV premium, you're getting, you know, 60¢ or 50¢ on the dollar of Bitcoin for every dollar you put up.

所以，尽管微策略在努力加杠杆，你的投资其实并没有杠杆。

So your trade is not levered even though MicroStrategy is trying to lever up.

这确实是个矛盾。

It's a paradox.

那这算矛盾吗？

Well, so is it a paradox?

我不觉得这是矛盾，因为股票本来就是反映我们对未来的预期。

I don't think it is a paradox because that is what equities are about is what our expectations about the future.

所以我们自然会把未来的杠杆效应，用某种折现率折算到今天的价格里。

And so we would expect the future leverage to be priced in today, right, with some kind of discount rate.

我同意你的看法，公司不该用优先股过度加杠杆。

And I agree with you that strategy should not overlever itself with preferred.

不过我个人对比特币持乐观态度。

I think though that I'm bullish on Bitcoin.

我觉得他们资产负债表上的资产价值还会继续上涨，就算什么都不做，也会自然去杠杆。

I think that the value of the asset side of their balance sheet is going to continue to increase, and that they will naturally be deleveraging if they don't do anything else.

如果他们持续通过ATM机制买入比特币，就能不断把比特币加到资产负债表上，慢慢追上mNAV。

And that if they continue to tap off for ATMs, that they're going to be able to continue to accrue Bitcoin onto the balance sheet and grow into their mNAV.

所以与其说这是个悖论，不如说这反映了金融市场的前瞻性本质。

And so there's not so much a paradox, I think, as much as it's about the forward looking nature of financial markets.

我们先休息一下。

Let's take a quick break

听听今天节目的赞助商怎么说。

and hear from today's sponsors.

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Alright.

我们继续回到节目。

Back to the show.

皮埃尔，你觉得这一切的核心，其实是对比特币未来走势的预期，而不是吉姆可能看到的角度，对吧？

Pierre, wouldn't you say it's more a forward looking expectation of what you think Bitcoin's gonna do at the root of all of this versus how Jim's may be seeing it?

如果我们把 mNAV 看作是未来债务的期权价值，再考虑到比特币的波动率上行偏斜，那么如果认为比特币不会快速增长，或者会横盘整理，mNAV 就被高估了。

Well, so if we look at the mNAV being the option value of future debt, and we factor in an upward volatility skew for Bitcoin, then if we think that Bitcoin's not going to grow very quickly or it's going to go sideways, then the mNAV is rich.

但如果认为比特币在未来几十年会表现强劲，那我们就得讨论它到底是估值合理，还是被低估了。

If we think that Bitcoin's going to perform very well over the coming decades, then we can have a debate as to whether it's at fair value or if it's undervalued.

吉姆，你同意这个说法吗？

Jim, would you agree with that?

我同意。

I would agree.

理论上是这样，但实际操作起来问题就来了。

Again, in theory, the problem becomes in practice.

我们之前一直在讨论 MicroStrategy 的比特币持仓和比特币本身的关系，但现在还得加上最近几个月，特别是 2025 年出现的新情况——那就是大量跟风策略的涌现。

And we can add to that the additional now we've been talking about the universe of Bitcoin at MicroStrategy relative to Bitcoin, but now we have to bring in to the fact of what also is new in the past handful of months, 2025, and that is the proliferation of Me Too strategies.

我认为，就像格兰特的利率观察员一个月前提到的，已经有超过 130 家公司加入了这个行列。

And I think that is more believe Grant's interest rate observer quoted over a 130 companies as of a month ago.

现在更多公司已经投身于比特币资产负债表策略。

I think it's more now that are embarked on Bitcoin treasury strategies.

理论上，这里没什么独家秘诀，关于微策略和先发优势，我们完全可以争论。

And because there is nothing proprietary in theory here, and we can have an argument about that, about micro strategies, first mover advantages.

但从理论上讲，这类公司完全可以大量涌现。

But in theory, these companies can proliferate.

如果一家公司能通过高价发行股票、适度加杠杆来创造价值，那会有无数企业要么新成立，要么转型成为比特币资产负债表公司。

If I am going to be able to create value in a corporate structure by issuing stock at a premium and levering it up in judicious amounts, there will be no shortage of companies that will be created or will transfer themselves into becoming Bitcoin treasury companies.

当然，最有力的证明就是，我们每天都能看到这种情况正在发生。

And, of course, the proof of the pudding is that we're seeing that right now by the day.

比如西班牙的咖啡店，还有奄奄一息的SPAC公司。

You know, coffee shops in Spain, moribund SPACs.

只要这还能赚钱，这种趋势只会越来越猛。

I mean, it's going to increase as long as this is profitable.

到目前为止，因为有利可图，我们肯定会迎来一波发行热潮。

And so far, because it's been profitable, we're going to see an explosion of issuance.

当然，这种趋势已经开始出现了。

And that's beginning, of course, to happen.

最近四五周里，这种情况真的在加速发生。

It's really been happening in the last one of four, five weeks.

我很认同这个观点。

So I really like this point.

如果我来进一步展开说一下，假如新进入的比特币储备策略公司规模远小于微策略，但采用同样的模式，它们的股价难道不该有更高的市净率，从而吸引更多的市场关注吗？毕竟微策略已经是个庞然大物，要继续扩大储备需要付出巨大努力，而那些市值在十亿美元以下的公司做起来要轻松得多。

And if I was just gonna kind of expound on it, if new Bitcoin treasury strategies come in and they're very small in market cap size relative to micro strategy and they're implementing this same approach, shouldn't their stock trade at a much bigger mNAV and potentially collect a lot more market interest than microstrategy, which is a behemoth that has to do a whole lot more to continue to expand their treasury than call it a company that's doing this at a market cap of 1,000,000,000 or less.

我能举的例子就是MetaPlanet，看看它们的规模和储备扩张的速度，再看它们的市净率，简直高得惊人。

And the proof that I would kinda point to is when we look at MetaPlanet and we look at the size of MetaPlanet and how fast they're expanding their treasury, you look at their mNAV and it's massive.

如果越来越多公司进入这个领域，而且都是小市值的，它们会不会分流市场对微策略的关注，进而压低它的市净率倍数？因为市场可能不再那么看好它了。

So if more companies come onto the market and start implementing this and they're at a really small market cap, do they take attention away from micro strategy and somewhat collapse their multiple over their mNAV because the market loses?

这当然是未来五到十年才会逐渐显现的趋势。

And this is obviously over the coming five or ten years as this plays out.

你觉得，随着这么多竞争者出现，微策略的市净率会不会因此被拉低？

Do you think that that could potentially collapse down the mNAV of micro strategy because of all these competing companies?

还有，吉姆，我这样解释是不是正好回应了你的问题？

And, Jim, am I explaining this kind of in what your what your question is?

你先回答，然后我再接着说。

Your answer first, and then I'll go.

对。

Yeah.

所以我觉得从宏观层面来看，这些公司实际上是在做空美元。

So I think that at a macro level, what's happening is that these companies are shorting the dollar.

对吧？

Right?

他们在借美元。

They're borrowing dollars.

然后去买比特币。

They're buying Bitcoin.

在我看来，这就是一场典型的投机性攻击。

In my view, it's a classic speculative attack.

这就像英国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特当年和索罗斯做的那样。

It's what treasury secretary Scott Besant was doing in England with mister Soros.

而且现在这种操作的规模和工具都是前所未有的。

And it's happening at a scale that is unprecedented and in vehicles that are unprecedented.

对吧？

Right?

我们现在是在上市公司层面这么做，而不是在私人对冲基金里。

That we're doing this in publicly traded companies, not private hedge funds.

所以这种方式公开的程度，是不寻常的。

And so this is I think it's public in a way that is unusual.

那利润什么时候会到头？

Where does it stop being profitable?

什么时候才会回到一比一的净资产价值？

Where do we have a kind of convergence to a one x mNAV?

我觉得这跟比特币的成功有关。

I think that it's with the success of Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

一旦你再也借不到美元，而美元、日元和其他货币都变得一文不值，那时比特币的价格就会达到一倍的净资产价值。

That once you can no longer borrow dollars and dollars are worthless and so are yen and other currencies, so that at that point, it will trade at one x multiple of the Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

前提是管理层没有转向其他业务来增加现金流，也就是比特币收入。

Assuming that management is not taking on some other kind of business to generate more stats flow, Bitcoin revenues.

对吧？

Right?

那这需要多长时间呢？

So how long will that take?

我刚开始了解比特币的时候，以为不到一年就会实现。

When I first started learning about Bitcoin, I thought it would take less than a year.

我以为到2014年底，整个货币体系就会被比特币取代。

I thought that the entire monetary system would be replaced by Bitcoin by the end of two thousand fourteen.

我错了。

I was wrong.

现在都十年过去了。

It's now a decade later.

所以，我觉得可以画条线，估计还得再过几十年。

And so, you know, I would just draw a line and say it's gonna take a few more decades.

可能到2050年，比特币才会慢慢接近一倍mNAV的均衡点，实现完全的市场饱和。

It might be by the year 2050 that will asymptotically approach one x mNAV equilibrium point and that coin has reached full market saturation.

但在那之前，我觉得还有很大空间留给竞争者和模仿者，我觉得Sailor要想做成这笔大交易，需要的帮助简直多到不行。

But before that, I think that there's plenty of room for competitors and imitators and that I would argue that Sailor needs all the help in the world to execute on this epic trade.

我还要补充一点，我觉得这个策略确实有护城河。

I would also add that I do think strategy has some moats around it.

其中一个就是流动性。

So one is the liquidity.

我认为在金融市场里，流动性带来的网络效应非常重要。

So I think liquidity network effects are very important in financial markets.

无论是普通股、优先股，还是可转债的市场准入，由于他过去五年一贯稳健的执行，市场对这些都充满信心。

And so whether it's the liquidity of the common stock, the preferreds, even the market access for the convertible bonds, right, that there's comfort around that due to his disciplined execution over the past five years.

他有实实在在的业绩记录。

He has a track record.

再加上MSTR周边的期权流动性，催生了大量其他ETF产品，这些产品都在利用这种波动性开发金融产品。

And on top of that, the liquidity of the options chain around MSTR, which has allowed for a proliferation of an ecosystem of other ETF products that are monetizing that volatility and developing products for that.

我觉得这一点很难被复制。

So I think that is challenging to replicate.

他的资产负债表上持有的比特币，已经比任何人都多出好几个数量级。

He's already got orders of magnitude more Bitcoin than anybody else on the balance sheet.

所以我确实认为，他拥有真正的护城河。

So I do think that there are real moats.

不过你说得对，小竞争者可能有更高的mNAV，更容易吸引散户投资者，最终加剧竞争。

But your point is well taken that smaller competitors could have a higher mNAV and attract attention from retail investors that ultimately makes it more competitive.

但总体来看，我也不确定最终会怎样。

But on net, I don't know where it shakes out.