TIP 002 : Warren Buffett Investing Basics part 2 (Investing Podcast)

这里是《投资者播客》第二集。

This is episode two of The Investor's Podcast.

从马里兰州贝尔艾尔为您播报。

Broadcasting from Bel Air, Maryland.

欢迎收听《投资者播客》。

This is The Investor's Podcast.

他们会阅读书籍并总结要点。

They'll read the books and summarize the lessons.

他们会试探水温，告诉你什么时候冷。

They'll test the waters and tell you when it's cold.

他们会给你实用的投资策略。

They'll give you actionable investing strategies.

主持人：普雷斯顿·皮什和斯蒂格·布罗德尔森。

Your host, Preston Pysh and Stig Brodersen.

嘿。

Hey.

大家最近怎么样？

How's everybody doing?

我是Preston Pisch，欢迎收听《投资者播客》。

This is Preston Pisch, and I'm your host for The Investor's Podcast.

今天和我一起主持的是我的搭档Stig Brodersen。

And I'm accompanied by my cohost, Stig Brodersen.

嘿，大家好。

Hey, guys.

我是Stig Brodersen。

This is Stig Brodersen.

我已经迫不及待想和大家共度今天了。

Can't wait to spend my day with you.

好的。

Alright.

那么今天这期节目，我们有两个环节。

So for today's episode, we've got two segments for the show.

欢迎之前听过我们节目的朋友回来。

And for anybody who's joining us, from the previous show, welcome back.

我们很高兴你们能来。

We're excited to have you.

但如果你是第一次听，而且是从第二集开始的，我们强烈建议你先回去听第一集，因为那里有一些重要的信息，你需要先了解这些才能更好地跟上这一集的内容。

But if you're joining us for the first time and you're starting out with the second episode, we highly recommend that you go back and listen to the first episode because, there was some important information that you need to know in order to kinda continue on into this episode.

那么，今天的节目我们有两个部分。

So, in this show, we've got two segments.

第一部分，我们会继续讨论之前关于企业利润的话题。

The first segment, we're gonna continue discussion that we had pertaining to the profit of the business.

利润也就是净收入或收益的另一种说法。

Profit is also another term for net income or earnings.

而这一集我们要讨论的是，你如何把这些收益装进自己的口袋？

And what we're gonna talk about in this episode is how do you get those earnings into your pocket?

说这些收益是你的当然很好，但如果不明白这些钱是怎么到口袋里的，那说这些也没什么意义。

It's real nice to be able to say that those earnings are yours and everything, but it really doesn't make sense until people understand how does that money get into my pocket.

这就是我们第一段要讨论的内容。

So that's what we're gonna be talking about in the first segment.

然后第二段，我们会聊一个叫“市场先生”的角色。

And then in the second segment, we're gonna be talking about a character called Mr.

市场先生是虚构的人物，是沃伦·巴菲特在哥伦比亚大学的教授本杰明·格雷厄姆在课堂上提出来的。

Market, which was a fictitious character that Benjamin Graham, who was Warren Buffett's professor at Columbia, that was a character that Benjamin Graham had come up with for his classroom at Columbia.

我们会在第二段里讨论这个。

So we'll be discussing that in our second segment.

那我们就直接进入第一段，聊聊股东是怎么拿到他们的收益的。

So let's go ahead and, just move into this first segment, and talk about how a shareholder receives their earnings.

其实这个很简单。

So this is really quite simple.

股东通过两种途径获得公司的收益。

A shareholder receives the earnings of the business through two different paths.

当我们谈论公司收益时，假设我们看的是公司的一股股票。

So when we talk about the earnings of a company, let's say that we're looking at one share of a business.

在上期节目的例子里，我们提到有一家咖啡店，然后这家咖啡店被分成了1万股，这意味着每股可能价值10美元。所以如果我们面对的是10美元的股票，你在市场上花10美元买入，通常这一股对应的利润大概是一美元。

And in our previous example from, the last episode, we said that we had a coffee shop, and then that coffee shop was broken up into 10,000 shares, which meant that one share was potentially worth $10 So if we're dealing with a $10 share, okay, that you'd buy on the market for $10, typically the profit that'd be associated with that one share would be about a dollar.

对吧？

Okay?

10%的回报。

10%.

如果一家公司能相对于买入价产生10%的利润，那这个价格买下这家公司算是相当划算的。

And if a company is able to turn a 10% profit, compared to its purchase price, that's a pretty good price to to pay for owning a business.

那么，你怎么才能拿到这笔钱呢？这就是我们第一段要解决的问题。

So how would you get now here's the question that we're trying to solve here in this first segment.

作为股东，你怎么才能把那1美元的利润装进自己口袋里？

How would you get that $1 of earnings into your pocket as a shareholder?

实现的方式有两条路。

And how that happens is there's two paths.

一种是通过分红拿到现金，另一种是公司把这笔利润留在公司内部，这样以后可以买资产或者做其他事情，从而创造更多价值。

You can get paid a dividend, which would receive cash, or the company could retain that earnings inside of the business itself, which would create more value later on because they could buy assets and a bunch of other things.

好的。

Okay.

那我们接下来就详细聊聊这两条路径。

So we're gonna talk about those two paths in a little bit more depth.

记住，那1美元的利润，也就是持有那10美元股票所带来的收益。

So remember, dollars 1 of profit, one of earnings that are associated with owning that $10 stock.

这1美元，第一条路径就是通过股息。

That $1 the first path is through the dividend.

对吧？

Okay?

假设这家公司今年派发了0.30美元的股息。

So let's say that this company paid a $0.30 dividend for the year.

那么，你会在你的证券账户里持有那一股。

What would happen is you would have a brokerage account where you own that one share.

然后那0.30美元会直接打进你的证券账户，就是一笔0.30美元的付款。

And then that $0.30 would be paid straight into that brokerage account as just a $0.30 payment.

你会看到那0.30美元出现在那一股上。

You'd see $0.30 show up for that one share.

所以如果你持有10股，或者100股，你只需要把你持有的股数乘以你收到的股息，也就是那30美分，那就是你账户里会看到的金额。

So if you own 10 shares, you own a 100 shares, you just take whatever number of shares you own, you multiply it by that dividend that you received, that 30¢, and that's how much money you'd see show up in your account.

所以很多时候，当你听到某只股票支付30美分的股息时，你需要弄清楚他们说的是整年的股息还是只是一个季度的。

So very often when you hear that a stock is paying like a 30¢ dividend, you need to be aware whether or not they're talking about the dividend for a whole year or only for a quarter.

在美国，股息通常是每年支付四次。

In The US, it is so that dividend is typically paid four times a year.

在欧洲，通常每年只支付一次。

In Europe, it's very often that's only one time a year.

所以当你听到这个的时候，你需要非常明确这一点。

So you need to be very specific about that when you hear that.

这是Stig提出的一个很好的观点。

So that's a great point that Stig brings up.

假设我们收到了0.30美元的股息，那是整年的。

So let's say we received a $0.30 dividend, that's for the entire year.

所以如果你看的是收到那30美分的股息，你会在一年四个季度里分别收到。

So if you're looking at, receiving that $0.30 dividend, you would receive that across four quarters of the year.

所以第一季度你可能收到7.5美分，下一季度再收到7.5美分，然后加起来一年就是30美分。

So the first quarter you might receive $0.75 the next quarter you'd receive another $0.75 and then in totality that would add up to $0.30 for the year.

听起来钱不多，但你要意识到你只是持有一股，而这一股可能只值10美元。所以你得按比例来看这个问题。

Doesn't sound like a lot of money, but you've got to realize you're only dealing with a share that might cost $10 So, you've got to think proportionally here in how all this works.

所以你可能想问的下一个问题是，好，我作为股东赚到了那30美分的利润。

So the next question you might be wondering is, okay, so I got $0.30 of the dollar profit that I earned as a shareholder.

那剩下的70美分去哪了？

So where did that other $0.70 go?

我能拿到吗？

And do I get that?

还是说它怎么了？

Or what happened to it?

答案是那70美分由公司保留。

And the answer is that that 70¢ is retained by the company.

明白吗？

Okay?

这笔钱就留在公司的账上，可能是实物资产，也可能是现金。

And it sits there in the company accounts either as a tangible item, as cash.

具体是什么形式，要看管理层怎么用这笔留存收益，可能性很多。

It could be really a whole host of different things depending on how the management wants to employ that retained earnings.

但对你来说，最简单直白的理解就是，这70美分是替你留着的收益。

But for you, in the most simplest way that I can describe this is that 70¢ is retained as your earnings.

明白吗？

Okay?

随着时间推移，从今年到明年再到后年，如果公司一直保留这些收益，管理层就有更多资金去购买资产、偿还负债，股价也应该会反映出这种增长。

And as time marches on from this year to the next year and the year after that, if the company continues to retain these earnings, that's going to continue to give management more ability to purchase more assets, to pay off liabilities, and so that share price should reflect that growth.

Stig，我看你好像有话要说。

So Stig, I saw you had something you wanted to add.

Stig，作为股票投资者，你需要把这看作一个非常简单的权衡。

Stig So for you as a stock investor, you need to see this as a very simple trade off.

如果你看中的是高股息，那没问题，因为短期内你会收到很多钱，但从长远来看，公司留存的现金会减少，公司能用来发展的资金也就少了。

If you're looking at a high dividend, that's fine because then you will receive a lot of money in the short run, but in the long run, there would be less cash retained in the company that the company can grow from.

这真的很难说，我到底想要高股息吗？

That's really hard to say, Do I want a high dividend?

嗯，你可能想要高股息，但长期来看，你实际上是在为可能更慢的增长买单。

Well, you might want to have that, but then you are really paying in the long run with a perhaps slower growth.

让我们快速休息一下，听听今天的赞助商怎么说。

Pointer Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

在我二十多岁的大部分时间里，我对钱的看法很简单：多赚点，其他的自然就解决了。

For most of my 20s, my money story was simple, earn more and the rest takes care of itself.

我的收入确实涨了，但我的开销也跟着涨了，只是我没注意到。

My income did go up, my spending went up right alongside it though I just didn't notice.

我的储蓄率悄悄从30%降到了20%，我都没发现，直到Monarch把所有账户放在一个屏幕上，让我看到了这个趋势。对于一个整天分析别人资产负债表的人来说，这有点讽刺。

My savings rate had quietly slipped from 30% down to 20% and I didn't catch it until Monarch put every account on one screen and showed me the trend, which sings a little for a guy who spends all day pulling apart someone else's balance sheet.

现在，投资视图让我在一个地方看到我的整个投资组合，以及它相对于标普500的实际表现。

Now the investment view shows me my whole portfolio in one place and how it's actually doing against the S and P 500.

而且当有大额消费要来的时候，我会先规划好，看看自己是否在正轨上，免得来不及调整。

And when a big purchase is coming, I map it out first and see whether I'm on track before it's too late to adjust.

用Monarch来书写你自己的理财故事吧。

Write your own money story with Monarch.

在monarch.com使用代码WSB，第一年Monarch Core半价，只要50美元。也就是说，第一年五折优惠，去monarch.com输入代码WSB就行。

Use code WSB at monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just $50 That's 50% off your first year at monarch.com with code WSB.

对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

而Plus500期货是个很好的起点。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场瞬息万变，通过Plus500，你可以探索热门资产，比如石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等等。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有新鲜事在发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台超级好用，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

你只需要100美元就能开始，马上参与进来。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的东西了吗？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，只需点击几下就能完成交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，可以用免费模拟账户练练手。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得前所未有的便捷。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去plus500.com看看吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易存在亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，让交易更上一层楼。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

每周我们都会在节目中分析一些公司，并问同一个问题：管理层真的在高效运营这家企业吗？

Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?

目前大多数公司的情况是，真正领先的是那些把AI应用到日常工作中的企业。

Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.

这正是Netsuite Next的用武之地。

That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.

Netsuite Next在你最需要的时候提供洞察。

Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.

它让智能代理处理日常任务和问题，你还可以用日常语言提出复杂问题，就像跟一位知识渊博的同事交流一样。

It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.

但技术只是其中的一部分。

But technology is only part of the story.

人工智能也在改变人们和团队协作的方式，而这种转变已经在进行中了。

AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.

今天你手里拿到的是一份专家制作的商业指南。

Expert created business guide in your hands today.

这份指南叫做《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以完全免费获得。

It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.

在里面，你会发现AI如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的业务从中受益。

Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.

我自己就在用这个，你也应该试试。

I use this and you should too.

如果你的收入至少达到七位数，就去netsuite.com/tip免费获取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在netsuite.com/tip免费提供给你。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip.

netsuite.com/tip。

Netsuite.com/tip.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目中来。

Back to the show.

所以，关于你是想要高分红、低分红还是不分红，显然存在很大的争议，这真的取决于收到分红的人。

So there's a there's obviously a huge debate on whether you should want a big dividend or a smaller dividend or no dividend at all, and it really depends on the the person that's receiving the dividend.

那我就来说说两种不同的情况吧。

So let me just talk through, two different, scenarios.

比如我比较年轻。

So I'm a little bit younger.

我三十多岁。

I'm in my thirties.

对吧？

Okay?

所以我倾向于不要分红。

So I prefer to have no dividend.

对吧？

Okay?

因为收到股息我得交税。

Because that's tax that I have to pay on receiving that dividend.

而且公司发股息之前也要交税。

And also the company is taxed before that dividend goes out the door.

所以从股东的角度看，收股息等于被双重征税。

So when you look at it from an ownership standpoint, I'm kind of being taxed twice by receiving a dividend.

公司交的税，不管多少，都是从我的留存收益里扣的，本来那部分钱是留给公司的。

The company's tax, so whatever that tax is, that's being taken out of my retained earnings that's that's being left over.

然后我作为股东收到这笔钱时，还得再交一次税。

And then whenever I receive it as a shareholder, I am being taxed on that money.

这一点非常重要，得搞清楚。

So that's something that's very important to understand.

所以如果我让公司保留收益，或者我买的就是一家留存收益的公司，那笔钱就能复利增长，而且不用像收股息那样频繁交税，少了很多税务上的摩擦。

So if I'm allowing the company to retain the earnings, or I'm basically buying a company that retains earnings, that money has an ability to compound and not get taxed and go through that friction of tax as much as receiving a dividend.

对吧？

Okay?

所以这是我作为一个年轻投资者的看法。

So that's my opinion as a younger investor.

但如果你已经六七十岁，退休了，靠这些股息来补贴生活，那你可能会有不同的看法，因为你用这些股息的目的完全不一样。

Now, if you're, say, you're in your sixties or seventies, and you're retired at this point and you're relying on those dividends to come in to supplement your lifestyle and the way that you're living, you probably would have a different opinion because you're using those dividends for a completely different purpose.

一种情况是拿它来增加净资产，另一种情况是拿它来维持生活。

In one case, the person's using it to grow their net worth, the other person is using it to sustain their lifestyle.

所以这真的取决于你是谁，你打算用这些收益做什么，以及你想怎么选公司。

So it really kind of depends on who you are, what you really plan on using these earnings for, depending on how you want to pick the company.

现在另一个变量是，第一个变量是你是什么样的人，你打算怎么用这家公司为你赚的钱。

Now the other variable to this, so that's the first variable is who are you and how do you plan on using the money that this company's making for you?

另一个变量是，我是否信任管理层能用留存收益做出明智的决定。

The other variable to this is do I trust the management to make good decisions with the retained earnings?

好的。

Okay.

所以这其实就是另一方面的考量。

So that's really kind of the other piece of it.

所以你看像伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样的公司，他们是不派发股息的。

So whenever you look at a company like Berkshire Hathaway, they don't pay any dividends.

有像沃伦·巴菲特这样的人在管理公司，他的年均回报率是20%。

You have a person like Warren Buffett running the company and his average return is 20% a year.

这样的人，你可以放心让他保留收益，并且知道他会在公司内部用这些钱做出非常明智的决策。

That's somebody that you can trust with retained earnings and know that he's making very good decisions with the money that he keeps within the company.

所以当你回头去看伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股价时，你会看到它的股价持续以惊人的速度增长，因为那正是保留收益和他用这些钱所做的事情的体现。

And so when you go back and you look at the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway, you continue to see Berkshire Hathaway grow at crazy rate with their share price because that's being reflected by the retained earnings and what he's doing with that money that he keeps.

如果你去看另一家公司，可能就不会看到同样的结果。

If you go to a different company, you might not see the same results.

所以你可能更倾向于公司派发股息，而不是保留这些收益。

So then you might prefer a dividend over the company retaining those earnings.

那么，斯蒂格，你有什么想补充的吗？

So Stig, you had something you wanted to add.

所以普雷斯顿，你真正想说的是没有固定的经验法则。

So Preston, what you're really saying is there are no rule of thumb.

你不会说，我需要至少20%的派息率或30%的派息率。

You aren't going to say, I need at least a 20% payout ratio or a 30% payout ratio.

那不是你看待股息的方式。

That's not how you look at dividends.

完全正确。

That's exactly right.

所以，你知道，每个人都在寻找那个经验法则，但有时候确实很难。

So, you know, everyone's looking for that that rule of thumb that it's it's kind of hard sometimes.

所以在这个特定的关注点上，你讨论的是，我应该收股息还是不该收股息，这真的取决于那两个变量。

So with this particular area of interest where you're talking about, should I receive a dividend, not receive a dividend, it's really kind of dependent on those two variables.

第一个是你自己，你处于人生的哪个阶段，你用这笔钱做什么？

First being who are you and and kind of where are you at in your life and what are you using the money for?

第二个变量是，你是否信任管理层。

And then the second variable being, you know, do you trust the management?

管理层过去有没有做出过好的决策，你对他们未来能否继续做出好的决策有信心吗？这会影响你想拿多少分红，甚至要不要分红。

Has the management made good decisions in the past, and do you expect them to make good decisions in the future as to how much of a dividend you want to receive, if one at all?

所以我个人的建议是，如果你是新手股东，可能最好选一家有分红的公司。

So my personal recommendation, if you are a new shareholder, you might want to pick a company where there is some sort of dividend.

原因很简单，如果公司发分红，说明他们现金流不错，而且确实有闲钱。

The reason for that is really that if the company is paying out a dividend, it means that they're making decent cash and they actually have excess cash.

如果你对正在看的这家公司不是特别有把握，这一点就非常让人安心。

That is very nice if you're not completely certain about the company that you're looking at.

而且，我确实同意Stig的看法，对第一次投资的人来说，看到分红实实在在打进账户，看到你买的这些股票在为你赚钱，这种感觉真的很好。

And I, you know, I have to agree with Stig for first time investors because it's it's really good to kinda see that materialize into your account, to to be able to see what your company is doing for you, these these shares that you're buying.

这不是什么虚无缥缈、看不见摸不着的东西。

It's not like it's some methodical thing that doesn't really exist.

你真的能看到公司盈利，然后看到一部分利润出现在你的银行账户里。

You're actually seeing the the company make a profit, and then you're actually seeing some of those profits show up into your bank account.

我觉得这对第一次投资的人来说，真的是件很好的事情。

I think that's a really good thing for first time investors.

还有一件事我想快速说一下。

So something else that I wanna talk about real quickly.

如果你收到的股息超过了公司的利润或收益，那可不是什么好事。

So it's a bad thing when you're receiving a dividend, and that dividend exceeds the profits or the earnings of the company.

我们来分析一下这个情况。

So let's let's walk through this.

假设公司的利润是1美元，对吧？

So let's say that your earnings, the profit of the company was $1 Okay?

再假设你这一年收到的股息是1.2美元。

And let's say that you were receiving a dividend of $1.20 for the year.

我想大家都能看出这里有问题。

I think everyone can kind of see there's a problem with that.

公司给你发的股息比它一年的利润还高20%，这从逻辑上根本说不通。

It doesn't make any probable sense that a company could be paying you a dividend that's 20% higher than the profits that they made for the year.

对吧？

Okay?

而且你可能觉得这很明显，好像是啊，对。

And believe it or not, that might sound like really obvious, like, oh, yeah.

我敢肯定没有公司会这么做。

I'm sure there's, like, no companies doing that.

但说实话，有很多公司就是这么干的。

But to tell you the truth, there's a lot of companies that do that.

而且当你开始在网上搜索不同的股票，查看每股收益时，你会发现这真的很让人惊讶。这里有个术语，非常重要的术语，EPS。

And it's actually quite surprising when you start looking around the internet and researching different picks, and you go down and you look at the earnings per share, is, here's a term here, this is a very important term, EPS.

明白吗？

Okay?

就是每股收益。

That's earnings per share.

我们之前说我们拥有的那一股有1美元的收益，指的就是这个数字。

And when we said that there was $1 of earnings for that one share that we own, that's exactly that number.

所以如果你上网查一家公司，比如雪佛龙或埃克森美孚之类的公司。

So if you'd go on the internet and you'd look up a company called your let's just say you're looking up Chevron or ExxonMobil or one of those kind of companies.

然后你往下看，看到EPS，也就是每股收益，就是每股的利润。

And you go down and you look at the EPS, the earnings per share, that's the profit per share.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以当你看到那个数字，它比一美元高很多，但我们就假设它是一美元。

So when you look up that number, and it's much higher than a dollar, but let's just say that it's a dollar.

明白吗？

Okay?

你看到这个数字，就知道这是公司一整年赚的利润。

And you see that, you know that that's the profit that the company has made for an entire year.

明白吗？

Okay?

这个EPS就是一年的利润。

That EPS is profit for one year.

所以当你看到那个数字，把它和股息比较，假设股息是1.2美元，虽然我刚才提到的两家公司不是这样。

So when you see that number and you compare it to the dividend, and let's say the dividend for whatever reason was $1.20, which it's not for those two companies that I just named.

但你会想，这家公司一年只赚1美元，怎么还能给我这么多现金，直接打进我的券商账户？

But you would look at that and say, how is that company paying me this much cash right into my brokerage account when they're only making $1 a year?

这个问题问得很好，而且它应该让你对这家公司敬而远之。

And that's a question that, you know, is a very good one and one that should really make you shy away from that company.

所以，这算是一个讨论点。

So, that's kind of a discussion.

我相信我们还能深入聊很多，但总的来说，我觉得我们从第一部分要记住的有两点。

I'm sure we could go into a whole lot more, but in general, I think the thing that we got to take away from this first segment is twofold.

对吧？

Okay?

你的利润，也就是你的收益，会流向两个不同的方向。

Your your profit, your earnings, is paid out in two different directions.

对吧？

Okay?

第一个方向是作为股息发放。

The first direction is it could be paid out as a dividend.

有些公司根本不派发股息。

Some companies don't pay any dividend.

对吧？

Okay?

如果是这样，所有的钱就都留在公司里，用来购买新资产、偿还旧债。

If that's the case, all the money is then retained by the company to purchase new assets, to pay off old debts.

这样一来，公司的净资产就会增长，长期来看，你会看到这反映在股价上。

And when they do that, the the equity of the business is going to grow, and you're going to see that reflected in the stock price of of the business over time.

对吧？

Okay?

所以这就是我们希望你们从这部分内容中记住的两点。

So that's the two things that we really want you to take away from this.

我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

作为投资者，有一个方面我觉得没得到足够的重视，那就是作为投资研究员，持续提升自己有多难。

One part of being an investor that I don't think gets enough attention is how hard it can be to continue to improve as an investment researcher.

就我自己来说，我经常发现，当我和某个行业专家或基金经理进行了一场很棒的对话后，脑子里全是想法。

And for myself, I often find that when I finish a great conversation with some industry expert or fund manager, my head is full of ideas.

但等我坐下来想把它们写下来的时候，一半已经忘了。

But by the time I sit down to write it all up, half of them are already gone.

所以我一直在用PlodNote Pro。

That's why I've been using PlodNote Pro.

这是个贴在手机背面的小设备，能录下对话，然后给我一份干净、可搜索的摘要。

It's a small device that sticks to the back of my phone and captures the conversation and hands me back a clean searchable recap.

关键点、后续要跟进的事、我通常想采取行动的事情，它都有。

And so the key points, the follow ups, the things I usually want to act on, it has all of that.

这样我就能专心待在房间里，而不是忙着记那些之后自己都看不懂的笔记。

And that allows me to stay present in the room instead of scribbling notes that I won't be able to read back later.

而且我的字迹是出了名的难看。

And I notoriously have very bad handwriting.

所以它改变了我的准备方式和跟投资者的后续跟进。

And so it's changed how I prep and how I follow-up with investors.

这款产品也是为那些认真对待对话的人设计的。

It's also built for people who take conversations seriously.

企业级安全防护。

Enterprise grade security.

所以如果你在录与客户或行业联系人的通话，那也完全没问题。

So if you're recording calls with clients or industry contacts, that's covered too.

所以如果你经常开会、打电话、做采访，那不妨看看这个。

So if you live in meetings, calls, and interviews, we'll give it a look.

访问 plod.ai/wsb，使用代码 wsb 可享九折优惠。

Go to plod.ai/wsb and use code w s b for 10% off.

就是 plod.ai 斜杠 WSB，代码 WSB。

That's plod.ai slash WSB code WSB.

还有，录对话前一定要征得对方同意。

And always get consent before you record a conversation.

对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

而Plus500期货是一个很好的起点。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场变化很快，通过Plus500，你可以探索石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有事情在发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台非常容易使用，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

你只需100美元就能开始，马上参与其中。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的东西了吗？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，只需几次点击就能进行交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，也可以用免费模拟账户练练手。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

Plus500有二十年的经验，让交易比以往任何时候都更容易上手。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去plus500.com看看吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，交易更上一层楼。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

每周我们都会在节目里分析一些公司，问同一个问题：管理层真的在高效运营这家公司吗？

Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?

说实话，现在大多数公司的答案是这样的：那些领先的公司，都是把AI用在日常事务上的。

Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.

这正是Netsuite Next的用武之地。

That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.

Netsuite Next在你最需要的时候提供洞察。

Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.

它让智能代理处理日常任务和问题，还能让你用日常语言提出复杂问题，就像跟一位知识渊博的同事聊天一样。

It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.

但技术只是故事的一部分。

But technology is only part of the story.

人工智能也在重塑人们和团队的协作方式，而这种转变已经在进行中。

AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.

今天，专家编写的商业指南就在你手中。

Expert created business guide in your hands today.

这本指南名为《为智能时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以免费获取。

It's called Aligning for the Augentic Era, How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.

在书中，你会发现AI如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的企业从中受益。

Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.

我在用这个，你也应该试试。

I use this and you should too.

如果你的年收入至少达到七位数，就免费领取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》，访问netsuite.com/tip即可。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在netsuite.com/tip免费提供给你。

The guide is free to you at netsuite dot com slash t I p.

netsuite.com/tip。

Netsuite.com/tip.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目中来。

Back to the show.

好。

Okay.

那我们进入第二部分，来聊聊……

So let's move into the second segment where we talk about Mr.

市场先生。

Market.

好的。

Okay.

就像我在开头说的，市场先生。

So like I said in the intro, Mr.

市场先生是本杰明·格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学教学生时用的一个虚构人物。

Market was a fictitious character that Benjamin Graham used for his students at Columbia University whenever he was teaching them.

而且我之前也说过好几次，本杰明·格雷厄姆是沃伦·巴菲特的教授，教了他很多不同的东西，这些真的让巴菲特变成了今天的亿万富翁。

And like I've said a couple other times, Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffett's professor that taught him all these different things that really kinda turned Buffett into the billionaire that he is today.

所以，在谈论价值投资时，他是一个非常重要的人物。

So, very important person to discuss when you talk about value investing.

所以，市场先生。

So Mr.

市场先生是个虚构的人，他会出现在你家门口。

Market was this fictitious person that would show up at your doorstep.

想象一下，一个穿着西装、提着公文包的销售员，他会出现在你家门口，然后敲门。

So imagine a salesperson with the suitcase and suit on, and he would show up and he would knock on your door.

他一到就会说，嘿，我在卖各种不同的东西。

When he would arrive, he would say, hey, I'm selling all these different things.

然后他打开公文包，给你看里面有什么。

And he'd open up the suitcase and show you what's inside.

格雷厄姆描述的方式是，公文包里的东西就是一堆不同的股票选择。

And the way Graham described it was that the stuff inside the suitcase were just a bunch of different stock picks.

而市场先生

And Mr.

每天都会回来，他可能会在早上九点出现。

Market would come back every single day, and he'd show up maybe call it 09:00 in the morning.

他每天九点都会敲门，然后打开他的公文包，说，嘿。

He would he would knock on the door every single day at 09:00, and he'd open up his briefcase and he'd say, hey.

我今天在卖这些东西，这些是它们今天的价格。

I'm selling these things, and these are the prices of these things today.

格雷厄姆喜欢这个例子的原因是，他想让学生明白，市场先生只是你的仆人，而不是你的向导。

And the reason Graham liked this example is because he showed students that Mr.

市场先生是你的仆人，不是你的向导。

Market is your servant and not your guide.

明白了吗？

Okay?

他的意思是，这个人每天出现在你家门口给你报价，他是来为你服务的。

And what he meant by that is this person showing up at your door and offering you these prices, he is there to serve you.

你不该盯着他卖的东西，然后心想：哦，今天这价格是这样，那我是不是该害怕或者兴奋。

You are not to look at what he's selling and and say, oh, well, that price is this today, so now I need to be scared or I need to be excited.

相反，你应该看看他拿来的东西，然后想想：你知道嘛？

Instead, you need to to look at what he's bringing you and saying, you know what?

我觉得那只股票，也就是A股，值十美元。

I think that that stock right there, stock a, is worth $10.

而市场先生

And Mr.

市场先生今天出现了，他卖15美元。

Market showed up today and he's selling it for $15.

对吧？

Okay?

嗯，这比我愿意付的价格高多了，所以我直接跟市场先生说，

Well, that's a lot higher than what I'm willing to pay, so I'm just gonna tell Mr.

让他走开。

Market to go away.

对吧？

Okay?

然后市场先生

And so then Mr.

就走了。

Market would leave.

然后我们快进一天，市场先生

And then let's skip one day in advance, and Mr.

市场先生又来了，他敲了你的门，你打开门，他进来，打开公文包，今天他想以8美元的价格卖给你股票A。

Market comes back and he knocks on your door, and you open up the door, he comes in and he opens up the briefcase, and stock a today, he wants to sell it for $8.

明白吗？

Okay?

这和前一天完全不同。

Which is completely different than the previous day.

所以格雷厄姆用这个例子教他的学生的是，看看市场给你提供了什么。

And so what Graham is teaching his students with this example is look at what the market is offering you.

明白吗？

Okay?

不要因为市场先生前一天报价15美元，现在报价8美元，就觉得天哪，我好害怕，然后被吓到。不要用相对的方式去看待它，而应该想，我认为股票A值多少钱？

Don't look at the market as saying, oh my god, I should be scared because the price he offered the day before was $15 and now he's offering me $8 And that would scare and they're looking at it relatively instead of looking at it, what do I think share A is worth?

而市场先生作为你的仆人，

And what is Mr.

他给你提供的报价又是什么呢？

Market offering me as a servant?

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这就是他真正想通过这个市场先生例子强调的重点。

So that's really what he's trying to drive home here with this Mr.

市场先生的例子。

Market example.

那么，Stig，请继续。

So Stig, go ahead.

看起来你有想补充的内容。

See you had something you wanted to add.

是的，各位。

Yeah, guys.

所以Preston真正想说的是，耐心对你作为股票投资者来说非常非常重要。

So what Preston is really saying is that patience is very, very important for you as a stock investor.

我觉得我们可以专门做一期播客，聊聊作为股票投资者需要具备哪些心理素质。

I think we can do a whole new podcast about what kind of mental skills you need to have to be a stock investor.

但关于市场先生，有一个很关键的点需要理解。

But the great thing to understand about Mr.

那就是他每天都会到你的办公室来。

Market is really that he comes by your office every day.

从周一到周五，他都会来你的办公室，每天甚至每小时都给你提供新的报价。

Every Monday to Friday, he drops by your office and he will give you new quotes every day, and even on a daily, hourly base.

所以耐心真的非常重要。

So patience is really, really important.

你不需要今天就买股票，下星期不用买，甚至今年都不用买。

You don't have to buy stocks today, not next week, or perhaps not this year.

我知道沃伦·巴菲特以前说过，如果他一年能有一个好主意，那就足够让他致富了。

I know that Warren Buffett used to say that if he gets one good idea each year, that is enough to make him wealthy.

所以，咱们可以回到第一集里提到的咖啡店那个例子。

So, you know, and and we could go back to the coffee shop example that we had, from the first episode.

假设你想在本地镇上买一家咖啡店，因为你认为它是个非常出色的生意，于是你找到店主说：嘿，我想买下你的咖啡店。

You know, if if you were trying to buy a coffee shop in your local town because you thought it was an outstanding business, and you approached the owner and you said, hey, I'd like to buy your coffee shop.

然后店主说，我想卖30万美元。

And the owner says, well, I wanna sell it for $300,000.

而你心里可能觉得它只值10万美元。

And, you know, you maybe thought it was worth a $100,000.

你不会情绪激动地说，天哪，他们要价太高了。

You're not gonna get all emotional and say, oh my god, they want so much higher.

你只会就事论事，接受这个报价，然后说，你知道吗？

You're just going to kind of take it as is at face value and say, you know what?

这比我愿意出的价高了一点，然后你就干脆放弃这笔交易。

That's a little higher than I was willing to pay, and you just kind of walk away from the offer.

这不意味着六个月后你不会再去找同一个人说，嘿，我还是想买你的咖啡店。

That doesn't mean that maybe six months later you go back to the same person and say, hey, I'm still interested in buying your coffee shop.

你愿意10万美元卖给我吗？

Would you be willing to to sell it to me for a 100,000?

然后那个人说，你知道吗，我一直没找到合适的买家。

And then the person says, you know, I haven't had any luck.

那我就十五万卖给你吧。

I'll sell it to you for a 150,000.

好的。

Okay.

所以现在摆在桌面上的报价就不一样了。

So now it's a different offer on the table.

也许你会说，对，这比我原本想付的稍微高一点，但我确实想拥有它，所以我就十五万买下来。

And maybe you might say, yeah, That's a little higher than I wanted to pay, but I do wanna own it, so I'm gonna buy it at 01:50.

明白吗？

Okay?

股票市场也是一模一样的道理。

Same exact thing on the stock market.

明白吗？

Okay?

完全一样。

The same exact thing.