TIP232：亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的启示（商业播客）

你正在收听TIP。

You're listening to TIP.

嘿，大家最近怎么样？

Hey, how's everyone doing out there?

今天节目里，我们要聊一位我们很喜欢的投资人，

On today's show, we're going be talking about one of our favorite investors, Mr.

斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒先生。

Stanley Druckenmiller.

德鲁肯米勒先生

Mr.

1953年出生，1977年从密歇根大学博士项目退学，进入匹兹堡国家银行工作，从此踏入投资界。

Druckenmiller was born in 1953, and he's been in the investment world since dropping out of his PhD program at the University of Michigan in 1977 to take on a job at Pittsburgh National Bank.

仅仅一年后，他就成了银行股票研究部门的负责人。

After only one year, he became the head of the bank's equity research group.

到了1981年，德鲁肯米勒先生

And by 1981, Mr.

德鲁肯米勒创立了杜肯资本管理公司。

Druckenmiller formed Duquesne Capital Management.

然后在1988年，他被乔治·索罗斯聘请到量子基金工作。

Then in 1988, he was hired by George Soros to work at the Quantum Fund.

这时斯坦利成了家喻户晓的名字，因为他通过做空英镑而闻名，赚取了十亿美元的收益，导致英格兰银行破产。

This is when Stanley became a household name because he famously broke the Bank of England by shorting the British pound and realizing a billion dollar gain.

除了是世界上最有智慧的投资者之一，德鲁肯米勒先生还是一位慈善家，捐赠了超过十亿美元。

In addition to being one of the smartest investors in the world, mister Druckenmiller is a philanthropist and has donated in excess of a billion dollars.

所以，不再多说了，下面是我们对斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒先生的报道。

So without further delay, here's our coverage of mister Stanley Druckenmiller.

你正在收听《投资者播客》，在这里我们研究金融市场，阅读那些对白手起家的亿万富翁影响最大的书籍。

You are listening to The Investor's Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most.

我们让你保持信息灵通，并为意外情况做好准备。

We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

欢迎收听《投资者播客》。

Welcome to The Investor's Podcast.

我是普雷斯顿·皮什。

My name is Preston Pysh.

和往常一样，我的搭档斯蒂格·布罗德尔森也在这里。

And as always, I'm accompanied by my cohost, Stig Brodersen.

就像我们在开场白里说的，今天我们要聊的是斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒。

Like we said in the introduction, we're going to be covering Stanley Druckenmiller today.

在我们要播放的第一段音频里，斯坦谈到了他对最优货币政策的看法。

And in this first audio clip that we're going to play for you, Stan was talking about his thoughts on optimal monetary policy.

下面就是他说的内容……

Here's what he had to say....

现在，金融压制和央行干预的结合，使得长期利率在很大程度上由政府决定。

Now a mix of financial repression and central bank intervention has made long term interest rates largely determined by government fiat.

央行购买债券，也就是常说的量化宽松，已经深深植根于当前的思维中，现在甚至成了美联储的常规工具。

Bond buying by central bankers commonly referred to as QE has become so ingrained in current thinking that is now in the Fed's conventional toolkit.

这个工具曾经只用于经济萧条或金融危机，现在却要在下一次衰退刚露苗头时就拿出来用。

A tool once reserved for a depression or financial crisis is now to be used at the first inkling of the next recession.

我们这些年纪够大、见识过价格管制危害的人都知道，价格管制会导致短缺、资源浪费，还会打击投资，让人不愿意去生产消费者想要的东西。

For those of us old enough to have seen the dangers of price controls, they led to shortages, wasted resources, and disincentives to invest in what consumers want.

这最终必然导致资源由政治人物来分配，这是对资本主义的又一次重大冒犯。

They inevitably led to an allocation of resources by political actors in another great affront to capitalism.

所以，在工资和价格管制被所有经济学教科书和政策制定者彻底否定四十年之后，今天却允许最重要的价格——长期利率——被公共干预频繁扭曲，这实在令人惊讶。

So it is most surprising that forty years after wage and price controls were soundly rejected by every tech economic textbook and policy makers, today we have settled to allowing the most important price of all, long term interest rates to be regularly distorted by public intervention.

这种激进货币政策的借口，就是对固定2.0%通胀目标规则的痴迷。

The excuse of this radical monetary policy has been the obsession with a fixed 2.0% inflation targeting rule.

小数点本身就显示了这种做法有多荒谬。

The decimal point shows the absurdity of the exercise.

任何低于2.0%的数字都被视为通缩风险，也就是三十年代的“狼来了”，必须不惜一切代价避免。

Anything below 2.0% was a failure in risk deflation, the boogeyman of the nineteen thirties to be avoided at all costs.

这意味着，在大衰退结束多年后，美联储不仅让利率低于通胀水平，还通过量化宽松在资产负债表上积累了前所未有的4.5万亿美元。

This has meant that years after the great recession ended, the Fed has not only kept interest rates below inflation but have accumulated an unprecedented $4,500,000,000,000 on their balance sheet by doing QE.

全球央行为了不让本国货币因美元泛滥而升值，也纷纷跟进，各自印了十万亿美元的钞票。

Global central banks in part to keep their currencies from appreciating of these over abundant dollars have followed with 10,000,000,000,000 of their own.

讽刺的是，过去七百年里，平均通胀率只略高于1%，而平均利率则略低于6%。

Now the irony of this is over the last seven hundred years inflation has averaged barely over 1% and interest rates have averaged just under 6%.

所以我们现在看到的是，在几个世纪以来平均通胀率都处于正常水平的情况下，却出现了前所未有的激进货币扩张。

So we are seeing an unprecedented ultra monetary radical monetary expansion during a time of average average inflation over the last number of centuries.

而且，过去一个世纪里最严重的三次通缩期，并不是因为通胀率太接近零而开始的。

Moreover, the three most pernicious deflationary periods of the of the past century did not start because inflation was too close to zero.

它们之前都出现了资产泡沫。

They were preceded by asset bubbles.

如果我想制造一场通缩性崩溃，我会完全照搬过去六年全球央行官员的做法。

If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exactly what the world central bankers have been doing the last six years.

一想到这段时间里出现的错误投资，我就不寒而栗。

I shudder to think that the malinvestment that occurred over this period.

企业债务飙升，但大部分都被用来搞金融工程了。

Corporate debt has soared, but most of it has been used for financial engineering.

谁知道有多少僵尸企业是因为免费资金才活着的。

Who knows how many corporate zombies are out there because free money is keeping them alive.

个人投资者把越来越多的钱投入价格越来越高的资产。

Individuals have plowed ever increasing amounts of money into assets at ever increasing prices.

而且不只是私营部门在接收错误信号，国会也一样。

And it's not only the private sector that's getting the wrong message, but Congress as well.

我毫不怀疑，如果政策已经正常化，我们不会看到财政赤字如此大幅增加。

I have no doubt we would have not gotten such a big increase in fiscal deficits if policy had been normalized already.

在所有那只并非看不见的手的干预中，不让市场设定投资门槛利率，是我认为代价最高的。

Of all the interventions by the not so invisible hand, not allowing the market to set the hurdle rate for investment is the one I see with the highest costs.

政府应该停止操纵长期利率，停止干扰市场信号。

The government should get out of the business of manipulating long term interest rates and canceling market signals.

圣。

St.

每当斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒在这里提到长期利率时，他指的是由政府担保偿还的债券。

Whenever Stanley Druckenmiller is referring to long term interest rates here, he refers to bonds whose repayment is guaranteed by the government.

所以通常都是十年以上的。

So it's typically longer than ten years.

长期利率之所以这么重要，是因为它是企业投资的关键决定因素之一。

Stig Now, long term interest rates are so important because it's one of the key determinants of business investments.

如果长期利率低，就能鼓励企业投资新设备；反之，如果利率高，就会抑制这种投资，其他条件不变的情况下。

These long term interest rates can, if they're low, encourage investments in new equipment and whereas high interest rates discourage that, everything else equal.

所以它也是经济增长的关键决定因素之一。

So it's also one of the key determinants of economic growth.

对我来说，这里的关键要点是，斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒在说，我们应该更注重创造有利于增长的环境，同时也要管理好资产泡沫。

Stig So the key takeaway for me here really is that Stanley Druckenmiller is saying that we should focus more on creating the best climate for growth and we should manage our asset bubbles.

如果真的需要，我们应该允许短期内出现轻微衰退，而不是冒险去承受更可能发生的、更严重的危机，如果我们继续向系统注入那么多流动性的话。

Really if needed, we should allow for a minor recession in the short term instead of taking the risk for the more likely scenario one:thirty of a more severe crisis if we keep on putting all that liquidity into the system.

我们稍作休息，

Let's take a quick break

听听今天赞助商的话。

and hear from today's sponsors.

在我二十多岁的大部分时间里，我对钱的看法很简单：多赚点，其他的自然就解决了。

For most of my 20s, my money story was simple, earn more and the rest takes care of itself.

我的收入确实涨了，但我的开销也跟着涨了，只是我没注意到。

My income did go up, my spending went up right alongside it though I just didn't notice.

我的储蓄率悄悄从30%降到了20%，我都没发现，直到Monarch把所有账户放在一个屏幕上，让我看到了趋势。对于一个整天分析别人资产负债表的人来说，这有点丢脸。

My savings rate had quietly slipped from 30% down to 20% and I didn't catch it until Monarch put every account on one screen and showed me the trend, which sings a little for a guy who spends all day pulling apart someone else's balance sheet.

现在，投资视图让我在一个地方看到我的整个投资组合，以及它相对于标普500的实际表现。

And now the investment view shows me my whole portfolio in one place and how it's actually doing against the S and P 500.

当有大额消费要来时，我会先规划好，看看自己是否在正轨上，以免来不及调整。

When a big purchase is coming, I map it out first and see whether I'm on track before it's too late to adjust.

用Monarch写下你自己的金钱故事。

Write your own money story with Monarch.

在monarch.com使用代码WSB，第一年Monarch Core只需50美元，半价优惠。也就是说，在monarch.com使用代码WSB，第一年立减50%。

Use code WSB at monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just $50 That's 50% off your first year at monarch.com with code WSB.

对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

而Plus500期货是一个很好的起点。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场瞬息万变，通过Plus500，你可以探索石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有新鲜事发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台超级好用，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy to use so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

你只需100美元就能开始，马上参与其中。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的东西了吗？

See something interesting?

一旦你的账户

Once your account

账户开通后，你只需几下就能完成交易。

is open, you can trade it in just a couple

几下点击就能搞定。

of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，可以用免费模拟账户练习一下。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得比以往任何时候都更容易。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去plus500.com看看吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，让交易更上一层楼。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

每周我们都会在节目里分析一些公司，问同一个问题：管理层到底有没有在高效地运营这家公司？

Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?

现在大多数公司的真实情况是这样的。

Here's the honest answer for most companies right now.

那些领先的公司，都是把AI用在日常事务上的。

The ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.

这正是Netsuite Next的用武之地。

That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.

Netsuite Next会在你最需要的时候给你提供关键信息。

Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.

它能把日常任务和问题交给智能代理处理，而且你可以用大白话问它复杂的问题，就像跟一个懂行的同事聊天一样。

It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.

但技术只是其中一部分。

But technology is only part of the story.

AI也在改变人和团队协作的方式，而且这种变化已经在发生了。

AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.

今天你手里拿到的是一份专家编写的商业指南。

Expert created business guide in your hands today.

它叫做《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以完全免费获得。

It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.

在里面，你会发现AI如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的业务从中受益。

Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.

我自己在用，你也应该用。

I use this and you should too.

如果你的收入至少达到七位数，请访问netsuite.com/tip，免费获取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在netsuite.com/tip免费提供。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip.

netsuite.com/tip。

Netsuite.com/tip.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目中来。

Back to the show.

斯提格，你刚才说的这些想法真不错。

Some really good thoughts there, Stig.

除了你讲的这些，我觉得还有必要聊聊斯坦利整体的投资理念。

In addition to what you're explaining, I think it's also important to talk about Stanley's investment philosophy in general.

和沃伦·巴菲特以及很多其他价值投资者不同，斯坦通常非常关注央行。

Unlike Warren Buffett and many other value investors, Stan typically focuses heavily on central bankers.

比如，我这儿给你念一段话。

And for instance, I'm going to read you a quote here.

斯坦说过：“推动整个市场的不是盈利，而是美联储。”

Stan said, Earnings don't move the overall market, it's the Federal Reserve Board.

要关注央行，关注流动性的变化。

Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity.

市场上大多数人都在用传统指标看盈利。

Most people in the markets are looking for earnings in conventional measures.

是流动性在推动市场。

It's the liquidity that moves markets.

所以如果你和我一样，听到这句话会觉得很难接受，因为巴菲特那种价值投资风格主要是关注个股，而忽略了央行对宏观因素的影响。

So if you're like me and it's really hard to hear that quote because much of this Warren Buffett value investing style revolves around looking at the individual companies and ignoring the macro factors that are being impacted by central banks.

但我觉得同时，让大家听听斯坦是如何思考他的方法论的，也非常重要。

But I think it's at the same time really important for people to hear how Stan thinks through his methodology.

自从他创立杜肯资本管理基金以来，从1981年开始，他的年回报率一直是30%。

Since the inception of his Duquesne Capital Management Fund, his return has been 30% annually since 1981.

这个数字简直太离谱了。

That figure is absolutely absurd.

所以这里还有另一段话，我想读一下，这段话深入探讨了他如何看待央行的影响，以及他如何从这个角度出发，来判断自己处于周期的哪个阶段。

So I have another quote here that I want to read that kind of digs into the way he thinks about this central banking impact and how he kind of starts with that narrative to understand where he's at in cycles.

第二段话是这样的：我们主要关注的是流动性，也就是结合经济全局来看。

And the second quote goes like this, The major thing that we look at is liquidity, meaning as a combination of an economic overview.

与许多财经媒体的说法相反，回顾本世纪的几轮大牛市，股票的最佳投资环境其实是一个沉闷、缓慢的经济，而美联储正试图推动它复苏。

Contrary to what a lot of the financial press has stated, looking at the great bull markets of this century, the best investments for stocks is a very dull, slow economy that the Federal Reserve is trying to get going.

一旦经济加速到一定程度，美联储就不再支持你了。

Once an economy reaches a certain level of acceleration, the Fed is no longer with you.

相反，美联储会试图推动经济增长。

The Fed instead is trying to get the economy moving.

美联储不再试图推动经济增长，而是回归到央行行长的角色，开始担心通胀，担心经济过热。

The Fed instead of trying to get the economy moving reverts to acting like the central bankers that they are, and they start worrying about inflation and things get too hot.

所以它会试图给经济降温，缩减流动性，而与此同时，企业开始不得不建立库存，这又会从金融资产中抽走资金。

So it tries to cool things off, shrinking liquidity, while at the same time, the corporations start having to build inventory, which again takes money out of the financial assets.

最后，如果经济真的过热，企业就会开始进行资本支出。

And finally, if things get really heated, companies start engaging in capital spending.

这三件事都会减少可用于投资股票的整体资金，股价就会下跌。

All three of these things tend to shrink the overall money available for investing in stocks and stock prices go down.

我之所以读这些，是为了强调他非常重视理解这个周期和这种动态，而且他的分析起点确实是关注央行行长的行动。

So the reason I'm reading all of this is to really highlight the importance that he places on understanding this cycle and this dynamic and really the focus in the primary start by looking at what the central bankers do.

所以当我们播放那段录音，你听到他谈论他对央行应该做什么以及影响的看法时，这确实是斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒开始分析的地方。

So when we play that sound clip and you kind of hear him talking about his views on what the central bank should be doing and the impacts, this is truly where Stanley Druckenmiller starts his analysis.

那我们接下来进入下一个话题，这个话题真的很有意思，值得深入探讨。

So let's go ahead and dig into the next topic, which is really kind of a fascinating area to explore.

在这个问题里，有人问斯坦关于机器参与市场的事情，特别是人工智能方面的。

And in this question, Stan was asked a question about machines participating in the markets, specifically with respect to artificial intelligence.

斯坦被问到，为什么他现在从市场里得到的信号好像变少了，跟他前几十年看到的相比。

And Stan was asked about the lack of signals that he seems to be getting in the markets now compared to what he was seeing in the previous decades.

然后他是这么回答的。

And so this is how he responded.

前几天有人说，你对这些算法交易一直很挑剔。

Someone said the other day, you've been very critical of these algos.

我说，其实我不是对算法交易有意见。

And I said, well, I'm not critical of the algos.

它们只是让我的日子变得很不方便。

They just made my life very inconvenient.

我不...

I don't...

并不是说它们做错了什么。

It's not that they're doing anything wrong.

我的意思是，我工作的一大部分就是从市场获取信号。

So what I meant by that is a big part of my process is taking signals from markets.

我一直相信市场比我聪明。

I've always believed markets are smarter than I am.

它们会发出信息。

They send out a message.

如果我正确倾听它们，无论我的观点多么有力，如果市场在发出不同的信号，那就是在告诉我必须重新评估，必须重新评估，然后回到一个次要的细节上，但你必须保持开放的心态。

And then if I listen to them properly, no matter how powerful my thesis, if they're screaming something else, it's telling me you've gotta reevaluate, you gotta reevaluate, and you go back to an ancillary fine, but you gotta be open minded.

大约六七年前，央行取消了这些信号，但更重要的是，算法交易带着非常复杂的模型进入市场，这些模型基于历史事件，也许还有它们从互联网上获取的信息，比如谁在购物之类的，还有基于价格偏离标准差的模型，它们已经发展出自己的方法来预测价格走势和如何行动。

About six or seven years ago, combination of central banks canceling the signals, but maybe more importantly, the algos coming in with very, very sophisticated models based on historical events and maybe stuff they're picking up on the Internet about who's shopping or or this kind of stuff and also on standard deviation away from price have come up with their own methodology of how to predict price movements and how to behave.

我成长过程中，有人从根本上喜欢某种证券，然后从另一个从根本上不喜欢这种证券的人那里买入。

Well, I grew up with someone fundamentally likes the security, and they buy it from somebody who fundamentally doesn't like security.

不知怎么的，那只无形的手给出了一个非常好的答案，而且随着时间的推移，它还具有预测性。

And somehow, the invisible hand spit out a very good answer, and it was predictive over time.

而且我也学到了，事情是会变的。

And I also learned that things would change.

当趋势开始上升的时候，那就是我应该大举投入的时候。

And when the trends started to go up, that's when I'm supposed to plow in.

但是算法交易、机器交易，它们的动机往往不一样。

Well, the algos, machines trading, they tend to have different motivations.

比如说，它们不太追涨杀跌。

Like, they're not nearly as momentum oriented.

就在趋势看起来要上涨的时候，可能只是某个算法因为标准差或者其他什么原因在操作，这严重干扰了我解读市场信号的能力。

And just when the trend may look like it's going up, it may be just some algo who's got some standard deviation or or or something going on, and it has severely inhibited my ability to read the signals.

所以我的第一位导师，匹兹堡的巴罗斯·德雷利斯，常说：一亿法国人不会都错。

So my first mentor, Burrows Drellis, back in Pittsburgh used to say, a 100,000,000 Frenchmen can't be wrong.

他的意思是，市场的声音总是对的，我必须去听它的。

And that was his saying that that the the voice of the market was always correct, and I I need to listen to it.

而且这确实是真的。

And it was true.

如果一家公司财报很好，大家都看好它，但股价连续三四个月表现不佳，那几乎可以肯定，六个月后会有你预料不到的事情发生。

If a company was reporting great earnings and everybody loved it and the stock just didn't act well for three or four months, almost inevitably, something happened that you didn't foresee six months down the road.

我永远不会忘记，大概两三年前，Facebook 发布了很好的财报。

And I'll never forget about two or three years ago, Facebook had reported great earnings.

股价是 122 美元。

Stock was, 122.

盘后开盘价是 131 美元。

Opens at 131 after hours.

结果三天后，股价跌到 1.16 美元。

And, like, three days later, trading at $1.16.

然后分析师们来了，给我分析这些。

So the analysts come in, and they're giving me this.

我就说，没什么问题。

So I said, nothing's wrong.

很好。

It's great.

挺好的。

It's great.

我说，不对，孩子。

I said, no, kid.

你错了。

You're wrong.

肯定会有事发生。

Something's gonna come out.

只是你现在还不知道。

You just don't know it yet.

接下来三四个月里会有坏事。

Something terrible in the next three or four months.

总之，一年后，股价到了2.20美元。

Anyway, a year later, the stock was, $2.20.

所以那说明不了什么。

So that didn't mean anything.

反过来，我能想起很多例子。

Conversely, I can remember so many examples.

比如一家公司公布糟糕的财报，股价大跌5%，成交量巨大，但当天收盘却上涨了。

When a company would report bad earnings, it goes down 5% on huge volume, then closes up on the day.

几乎无一例外，三到六个月后，那只股票涨得更高了。

Almost invariably, three to six months later, that stock was higher.

这不再意味着什么，可能只是某个对冲基金在耍聪明，或者有人在搞什么名堂。

Doesn't mean anything anymore other than some hedge fund may being a wise guy or somebody's doing something.

我经常看到这种情况，但一个月后，股价反而更低了。

All the time, I've seen that, and a month later, the stock's actually lower.

所以它们肯定不像以前那样有效了。

So they certainly don't work the way they used to.

我仍然喜欢把价格走势和新闻对比来看，但这曾经是我分析过程中非常重要的一环。

I I still like price action versus news, but it used to be a very, very important part of my process.

现在它在我分析中的比重已经大大降低了。

Now it's a much diminished part of my process.

听到一位几乎见过金融市场所有情况的顶尖人物说市场已经变了，确实让人感觉很好。

Stig It does feel good to hear that one of the greatest who've seen close to everything in the financial markets, he's saying that the markets have changed.

虽然确认偏误可能有些道理，你可能只是想验证自己已有的信念，但我确实认为这更加印证了价值投资背后的理念。

And while there's probably some truth to confirmation bias and you just wanted to be confirmed in what you already believe, I do think that this validates the thesis behind value investing even more.

我并不是固执地说靠交易和解读价格信号赚不到钱，但我觉得你必须非常聪明才能做到。

Stig Now, I'm not so stubborn to say that you can't make money out of trading and reading price signals, but I think you have to be very smart to do that.

如果不是极其聪明，那也差不了多少，因为你参与这个游戏时，并没有股票上涨带来的顺风，因为那些公司是在盈利的。

If not standing drunk and more smart, then very, very close to because you're not engaging in this game with a tailwind from equities that's going up because the companies you're investing in are making a profit.

作为交易者，你不仅是在和职业交易员竞争，

Now as a trader, you're not only competing one:thirty with

还要和电脑竞争，在这个领域竞争只会越来越难。

professional traders, you're also competing with computers, and it's just going to be harder and harder to compete in that space.

是的，我完全同意，Stig。

Yeah, I really couldn't agree more, Stig.

当你听到像Stan这样的人说AI机器人让他的日子不好过时，你真的会怀疑业余投资者怎么能出去跑赢市场。

And when you hear a guy like Stan say that AI bots are making life hard for him, it really makes you wonder how an amateur investor can get out there and outperform.

如果要说有什么影响的话，这让我对技术分析和形态分析产生了怀疑，尤其是在短期操作上。

If anything, it makes me second guess technical analysis and pattern analysis, especially in the short term basis.

因为市场上90%的交易都是由这些自动化系统完成的，它们依赖几十年的数据来做决策和把握时机。

Because so many of these automated systems, which make up 90% of the trading in the market are relying on decades of data to assist in their decision making and the timing.

好的。

All right.

那么接下来我们进入下一个问题和要播放的片段，这段录音是在2018年12月录制的，内容是斯坦对当时市场状况的看法。

So as we move on to the next question and clip that we're going to play here, this was recorded in December 2018 and these are Stan's thoughts on the current market conditions.

我们确实预测了最近四次经济衰退，而且在衰退来临前和刚开始时，我们的回报率总是远高于长期平均回报率。

We did predict the last four recessions and our returns going into them and as they started were always well above our average returns over time.

所以，股市内部有一个指标。

So, inside the stock market is one indicator.

第二个就是收益率曲线。

The second would be the yield curve.

再说一次，是黄色预警，不是红色警报。

Again, amber, not red.

但是你知道，我们已经出现了倒挂，五年期和两年期只是稍微倒挂了一点。

But we've inverted, as you know, from fives and twos just slightly.

两年期收益率是2.69，五年期是2.68，十年期是2.85。

Two years are two sixty nine, five years are two sixty eight, the ten year is two eighty five.

所以现在不仅收益率曲线在大幅走平，而且这种牛市走平让人很困惑，因为一开始利率并不高，而且美联储已经告诉我们，在这次加息之后，明年还会有三到四次加息，但市场就是不听，一直在说“不，不，不”。

So there's not only a big flattening going on, it's a very confusing bull flattening because it's not like we're looking at high rates to start with here and the Fed has, you know, told us that there's going to be three to four hikes next year after this hike, and the market is just saying, no, no, no.

另外，从历史来看，信贷往往领先于经济。

Then the other thing we've looked at historically is credit Tends to lead the economy.

大家似乎有信心，在这个周期里，我们不会像上个周期那样面临危险，因为上次的坏东西，比如房地产，并没有感染到银行。

There seems to be a confidence that this cycle, we don't have the danger we had in the last cycle because the bad stuff, a la housing back then, has not infected the banks.

那次更多是在高收益贷款市场发生的。

It was more done in the high yield loan market.

对我来说，这确实是真的。

And to me, it's true.

好消息是问题不在银行，因为那可能会引发系统性问题和金融危机，但经济其实并不在乎信贷是在银行里，还是在投资界的高收益贷款里。

It's great that it's not in the banks because that would probably be a systemic problem and financial crisis, but the economy doesn't really care whether credit is in the banks or it's in the investment community with high yield loans.

事实上，我觉得如果你是另一方，你更愿意跟银行协商贷款，而不是跟某个对冲基金经理打交道。

In fact, I would argue that if you're on the other side of it, you'd much rather work your loan out with a bank than you would with some hedge fund manager out there.

所以，事实是……

So the fact that...

我相信你昨天看了《金融时报》上的那篇文章。

I'm sure you read the article in the Financial Times yesterday.

而且信贷紧缩的程度已经到了这个地步，到处都是各种警示信号。

And the fact that credit is drying up to the extent that it is and there are all sorts of warning signs there.

我觉得通用电气的信用违约互换从9月1日以来已经从50个基点涨到了200个基点。

I think the GE CDS has gone from 50 basis points to 200 basis points since September 1.

IBM的也从30涨到了80。

IBM's gone from 30 to 80.

高收益债券指数也在变动。

High yield indexes are moving.

杠杆贷款下跌了3%。

Leverage loans are down 3%.

但更重要的是，因为我们经历了八年的免费资金，以及由此产生的各种过度行为和把人们推向收益率曲线的做法，现在确实需要谨慎，希望这个泡沫能慢慢释放。因为如果不这样，假设这些指标变红，你可能不得不采取更多疯狂的货币政策。

But more importantly, because we've had eight years of free money and the kind of excesses and pushing people out on the yield curves that's created, it's just a time for caution that you want this bubble to unlined slowly now because if you don't, and let's say these indicators turn red, you may have to do a lot more crazy monetary stuff.

而且，实际上，对于像我这样最终想要恢复正常化、想要去杠杆的人来说，这会是个更大的问题。

And, actually, it'll be more of a problem in terms of someone like me who eventually wants to normalize, wants to deleverage.

我一直在这条路上。

That's the train I've been on.

我明白。

I understand.

但这并不是在努力让泡沫慢慢释放。

But this isn't an effort to let that bubble out slowly.

我记得三四年前有人用过这个词，说这是一场美丽的去杠杆。

Someone, I believe, used the term three or four years ago that this is a beautiful deleveraging taking place.

我完全不知道他在说什么。

I have no idea what he was talking about.

在政府债务飙升、企业非金融债务以那种速度增长的情况下，怎么可能有美丽的去杠杆？

How do you have a beautiful deleveraging with US debt going through the roof at the government level and corporate non financial debt growing at the rate it was?

所以我现在要求的不是降息，只是先把我说的这些都消化一下，然后看看接下来会发生什么。

So what I'm asking for now is not a cut, just to take stock of everything I've said and wait and see what happens.

而且我真正想的是……

And what I'd really like to think...

你知道，我的工作就是权衡风险和回报。

My business, as you know, is risk reward.

那我们就来聊聊这里面的风险和回报吧。

So let's just talk about the risk reward here.

假设我完全判断错了，三到四个月后，这些事都没什么影响。

Let's suppose, I'm completely wrong, and three to four months from now, none of this stuff mattered.

那些金融界的人都是疯子，他们只是因为市场的一些技术因素而恐慌。

All the financial people were crazy, and they were panicking because of some technical factor in the market.

再假设美联储明天不加息。

And let's suppose the Fed did not hike tomorrow.

那代价是什么？

What is the cost?

好的。

Okay.

我不确定代价是什么，但两三个月后他们再次加息时，肯定会对他们的信誉造成一定影响。

I'm not sure what the cost is, but there's got to be some cost to their credibility two to three months down the road when they start hiking again.

在我看来，代价不大。

Not a big cost, in my opinion.

假设这些经济指标，我们正在看的这些前瞻性数据，都是对的。

Let's suppose that these economic indicators, the stuff we're looking at, the forward looking stuff is right.

而且我们有潜在的大问题正在酝酿，可能比我们想象的还要严重，因为市场上还有一些我们不知道的错误投资隐藏着。

And we have big potential problems brewing, and that they could be even bigger than we think because there's stuff hiding out there we don't know about in terms of malinvestment.

想想代价吧。

Think about the cost.

如果他们明天加息，并且继续每月缩减500亿美元的资产负债表，而欧洲央行又没有对冲，那对我来说，代价是5到10倍。

If they hike tomorrow and if they continue to shrink their balance sheet 50,000,000,000 a month right when the ECB is is not offsetting it, I mean, that that cost to me is 5 to 10 x.

他刚才提到了一些非常有趣的评论，特别是开头他说的，我觉得我们处于黄色警戒状态。

So some really interesting comments that he brought up here, particularly there at the beginning where he was saying, I think we're in a yellow status.

我觉得我们可能正处于一个筑顶的过程中。

I think we're potentially in a topping process.

我认为美联储需要放缓他们正在进行的紧缩政策，因为我们看到债券收益率曲线出现倒挂。

I think the Fed needs to hold back on the tightening that they're doing because we're seeing the inversion in the bond yield curve.

总的来说，我觉得他是在建议投资者和正在实施货币政策的央行官员们要格外谨慎。

In general, I would say there's just a lot of caution that he's recommending here for investors and also for central bankers that are implementing their monetary policy.

我还觉得他讽刺雷·达里奥那段挺有意思的，他说他完全不明白这怎么就是一场漂亮的去杠杆了，我敢说要是他和雷当面争论起来，那场面肯定很精彩。

I also found his jab there at Ray Dalio interesting where he said that he doesn't understand how in the world this is a beautiful deleveraging, which I'm sure that would be an interesting discussion to hear him and Ray hash that out.

这些都是来自一位年回报率30%的亿万富翁投资者的真知灼见，他谈到了他对2019年初股市状况的看法。

Just some real nuggets from a billionaire investor who gets 30% annual returns on where he sees where we're at entering 2019 in the stock market.

Preston，我们快速休息一下，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Preston Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

Preston，你对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步吗？

Preston Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

而Plus500期货是一个很好的起点。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场变化很快，通过Plus500，你可以探索像石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500 you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有事情在发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台非常容易使用，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

你只需100美元就能开始，马上投入行动。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的东西了吗？

See something interesting?

一旦你的账户

Once your account

开通了，只需点击几下就能进行交易。

is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，也可以用免费模拟账户练练手。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得比以往任何时候都更容易。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去+500.com看看吧。

Check it out at +500.com.

期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，交易，加一点。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

每周我们都会在节目中分析一些公司，并问同样的问题：管理层真的在高效运营这家公司吗？

Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?

现在大多数公司的真实情况是，那些领先的公司，都是把AI用在日常事务上的。

Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.

这正是Netsuite Next的用武之地。

That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.

Netsuite Next在你最需要的时候提供洞察。

Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.

它让智能代理处理日常任务和问题，并允许你用日常语言提出复杂问题，就像跟一位知识渊博的同事交谈一样。

It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.

但技术只是故事的一部分。

But technology is only part of the story.

人工智能也在重塑个人和团队的合作方式，而这种转变已经在进行中。

AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.

今天，你手上就有一份专家编写的商业指南。

Expert created business guide in your hands today.

这本指南名为《对齐：AI如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以免费获取。

It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.

在书中，你将发现AI如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的企业从中受益。

Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.

我自己在用，你也应该试试。

I use this and you should too.

如果你的年收入至少达到七位数，就去 netsuite.com/tip 免费领取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI 如何改变日常工作》。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在 netsuite.com/tip 上免费提供。netsuite.com/tip。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip.netsuite.com/tip.

今年九月，我去了纽约参加内在价值大会。

This September, I was in New York for the Intrinsic Value Conference.

演讲都很精彩，但我一直在想的是演讲之外发生的事情。

The talks were great, but what I kept thinking about is what happened around them.

周五晚上，我们大约二十个人挤在时代广场附近一家意大利家庭式餐馆的长桌旁。

On Friday night, about 20 of us crowded around a long table at a family style Italian spot near Times Square.

周六，我们又聚了一次。

Saturday, we did it again.

周日早上，我们一群人还在早餐时争论苏格拉底，然后大家才各自回家。

And Sunday morning, a group of us were still debating Socrates over breakfast before everyone headed home.

那些坐在桌旁的人，很多之前只在智囊团社群的电话会议里认识彼此。

Many of the people at those tables had only known each other from our calls in the mastermind community.

那是我和Kyle Greave、Daniel Monca一起主持的社群。

That is the community I host with Kyle Greave and Daniel Monca.

我们每周都会通过直播电话会议聚在一起，深入探讨市场和各个企业。

Each week, we get together on live calls to dig into markets and individual businesses.

我们会邀请基金经理、运营者和作家作为嘉宾。

We bring in fund managers, operators, and authors as guest speakers.

每年我们还会线下见面几次，比如今年秋天在纽约，每年春天在奥马哈。

And a few times a year, like New York this fall and Omaha every spring, we meet in person.

如果你想和一群同样着眼长远的人一起思考，可以免费申请加入，网址是theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind。

If you want to think in decades alongside people who do the same, apply for free at theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind.

如果你的申请能脱颖而出，

If your application one:thirty stands

我会亲自联系你。

out, I'll be the one to reach out to you personally.

好了，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

所以在这个问题里，斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒问的是，当你经历了一个亏损的年份，通常基金经理会想变得激进，试图把亏损全部赢回来。

So in this question, Stanley Druckenmiller has asked, When you had a down year, normally a fund manager would want to get aggressive and try to win it all back.

而你的做法是，下很多小注，这些小注不会伤到你。

What you do is to take lots of little bets that won't hurt you.

为什么？

Why?

这就是斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的回答。

And this is how Stanley Druckenmiller responded.

斯坦利：对。

Stanley Yeah.

幸运的一点是，我们这个行业的收费方式是，你在年底根据当年赚的利润按百分比来定价。

One of the lucky things was the way my industry prices is you price on it at the end of the year, you take a percentage of whatever profit you made for that year.

所以到了年底，从心理上和财务上，你都重新归零。

So at the end of the year, psychologically and financially, you reset to zero.

去年的利润已经是过去的事了。

Last year's profits are yesterday's news.

所以当我一年中表现不佳时，我总是会变得很疯狂。

So I would always be a crazy person when I was down in a year.

但我知道，因为我喜欢赌博，在拉斯维加斯，去那里的人中有百分之九十会输钱。

But I know, because I like to gamble, that in Las Vegas ninety percent of the people that go there lose.

而且在大多数大型赌局中，赔率对你来说只是三十三比三十二，稍微不利。

And the odds are only thirty three to 32 against you in most of the big games.

那为什么会有百分之九十的人输钱呢？

So how can 90% lose?

那是因为他们想回家吹嘘自己赢了钱。

It's because they want to go home and brag that they won money.

所以当他们赢钱、手气正旺的时候，他们非常非常谨慎。

So when they're winning and they're hot, they're very, very cautious.

而当他们手气不好、输钱的时候，他们却下大注，完全失去理智。

And when they're cold and losing money, they're betting big, completely irrational.

这一点很重要，因为我觉得以前从来没有人说过。

And this is important because I don't think anyone has ever said it before.

作为资金管理人，我最重要的职责之一就是判断自己状态是好是坏。

One of my most important jobs as a money manager was to understand whether I was hot or cold.

人生就是有起有伏的。

Life goes in streaks.

就像棒球里的击球手，有时候资金管理人能看清球，有时候看不清。

And like a hitter in baseball, sometimes a money manager is seeing the ball and sometimes they're not.

如果你在管理资金，你必须清楚自己状态是好是坏。

And if you're managing money, you must know whether you're cold or hot.

在我看来，状态不好的时候，你应该稳扎稳打几个月。

And in my opinion, when you're cold, you should be trying for months.

不应该冒险去搏大的。

You shouldn't be swinging for the fences.

你得重新找回节奏。

You got to get back in a rhythm.

所以基本上我就是这么操作的。

So that's pretty much how I operated.

如果我处于亏损状态，我就没有资格下大注。

If I was down, I had not earned the right to play big.

你提到的小额投注，其实就是为了告诉我，我是否重新找到了节奏，是否又开始命中目标了？

And the little bets you're talking about were simply on to tell me, had I reestablished a rhythm and was I starting to make hits again?

我给你的2000年国债交易的例子，完全违背了这个原则，这也说明我当时有多大的信心。

The example I gave you of the treasury bet in 2000 is a total violation of that, which shows you how much conviction I had.

所以这个想法主导了我的思考。

So this dominates my thinking.

但如果遇到一生一次的机会，你不能坐在那里说，哦，好吧，我还没有资格。

But if a once in a lifetime opportunity comes along, you can't sit there and go, Oh, well, I have not earned the right.

另外，我要说的是，那是在休息了四个月之后。

Now, will also say that was after a four month break.

我的头脑很清醒，很干净，我到死都会相信，如果我没有休那个假，我在九月就永远不会看到那个机会，也永远不会下那个赌注。

My mind was fresh, my mind was clean, and I will go to my grave believing if I hadn't taken that sabbatical I would have never seen that in September and I would have never made that bet.

那是因为我得到了解脱，我不需要靠打安打来维持，因为我回来后思路清晰，状态很好。

It's because I had been freed up and I didn't need to be hitting singles because I came back and it was clear and I was fresh.

所以那有点像赛季刚开始的感觉。

So that's kind of, it was like the beginning of the season.

所以我打得并不差。

So I wasn't hitting bad.

但如果你是一个资金管理者，知道什么时候状态好真的非常重要。

But it is really, really important if you're a money manager to know when you're seeing the ball.

Stig，对我来说，这是一个非常有趣的回答，因为他在这里谈论的是基金经理是如何被激励的，以及他们是如何根据这些激励来工作的。

Stig So to me, this was a very interesting response because what he's talking about here is how fund managers are really incentivized and how they're working due to their incentives.

所以基本上他每年都会重新开始。

So basically he resets every year.

如果你是一个资金管理者，这很有道理。

That makes a lot of sense if you are a money manager.

但我也想指出，如果你是一个个人投资者——你很可能就是，因为你正在听这个播客——这通常是一个疯狂的做法。

But I also want to put out if you're a private investor, and you probably are since you're listening to this podcast, this is generally a crazy strategy.

年底最后一天亏一块钱，和一月亏一块钱一样重要。

A loss of $1 the last day of the year is just as important as $1 loss in January.

我并不是说斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒不道德，完全不是。

I'm not really saying here that Stanley Druckenmiller is unethical, not at all.

如果要说的话，他非常讲道德。

If anything, he's very ethical.

他实际上在2010年8月关闭了他的基金，当时他告诉客户他要退还资金，因为他无法维持他三十年跑赢市场的记录，因为他管理的资金太多了。

He actually closed down his fund in August 2010 whenever he told his clients that he was returning the money because he couldn't sustain his thirty year record of beating the market because he had so much money.

对我来说，那是一个非常道德的决定。

To me, that was a very ethical decision.

大多数资金经理可能会继续经营，只是收取年度管理费。

Most money managers would probably continue and just collect their annual fee.

但我认为这个回答非常有趣，因为它也告诉你在和资金经理一起投资时应该注意什么。

But I think this response was very interesting because it also tells you what you should look out for whenever you are investing together with a money manager.

这也是我从未投资私募股权或对冲基金的原因之一，因为基本上你不仅通过年度管理费奖励你的资金经理，还要从利润中分一杯羹。

That's also one of the reasons why I've never invested in private equity or in hedge funds for that matter, because basically you reward your money manager not only by taking annual fee, but also to take a cut off the profit.