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你正在收听《TIP》。
You're listening to TIP.
大家好，我是Clay。
Clay Hey, everyone.
欢迎来到《投资者播客》。
Welcome to The Investor's Podcast.
我是你们的主持人Clay Finck，今天特别兴奋能为大家带来这一期节目，主题是我最欣赏的投资者之一——Nick Sleep。
I'm your host, Clay Finck, and I am just so excited to bring you today's episode covering one of my very favorite investors out there, Nick Sleep.
上一期节目中，我用沃伦·巴菲特的方法，对达乐和苹果公司做了内在价值分析。
During last week's episode, I did an intrinsic value analysis on Dollar General and Apple using Warren Buffett's approach to analyzing and valuing a business.
节目快结束时，我简单聊了聊我们可以从Nick Sleep身上学到的：如何识别一家优秀的企业，以合理的价格买入，并长期持有。
Then at the end of the episode, I talked a bit about the lessons we can learn from Nick Sleep in identifying a great business, buying it at a reasonable price and holding it for a very long time.
之后我开始仔细阅读Nick Sleep的信件，决定做一期节目，专门讲讲他的整体投资理念，巴菲特和芒格对他的影响，以及他惊人的投资业绩。
From there, I started reading into Nick Sleep's letters and I wanted to put together an episode talking about his overall investment approach, how Buffett and Munger influenced him and his incredible investment track record.
通过他的基金Nomad Investment Partnership，在2001到2014年这十三年间，基金总回报达到了921%，而同期全球指数仅上涨了117%。
Through his fund, the Nomad Investment Partnership, he achieved a stellar total return of 921% versus 117% for the world index during the fund's tenure of thirteen years from 2001 to 2014.
我还会谈到他投资伯克希尔哈撒韦、好市多和亚马逊这些大获成功的案例。
I also touch on his home run investments in Berkshire Hathaway, Costco, and Amazon.
他个人投资组合里的亚马逊股票涨得太猛了，最后干脆卖了一半，把资金转投到第四家公司ASOS，我会在本集末尾详细讲讲这家公司。
His Amazon investment in his personal portfolio got so large in his portfolio that he actually decided to sell half of it and allocate it to a fourth company, ASOS, which I'll be diving into at the end of this episode.
别忘了听到最后。
Be sure to stick around till the end.
另外，像我之前几期提到的，我们现在正在为听众举办一场股票推荐大赛。
Also, as I've mentioned in previous episodes, we are running a stock pitch competition for the listeners to compete in.
如果你想提交一份股票推荐，赢取一千美元奖金，请访问 theinvestorspodcast.com/stockcompetition。
If you'd like to submit a stock pitch and earn a chance to win $1,000 please visit theinvestorspodcast.com/stockcompetition.
网址是 theinvestorspodcast.com/stockcompetition。
That's theinvestorspodcast.com/stockcompetition.
好了，我们直接进入正题。
With that, let's get right to it.
你正在收听《投资者播客》，在这里我们研究金融市场，阅读那些影响了众多白手起家亿万富翁的书籍。
You are listening to The Investor's Podcast, where we study the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most.
我们让你随时掌握信息，做好应对意外的准备。
We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.
正如我在开头提到的，尼克的基金——诺马德投资合伙企业，总回报达到了921%，而他的基准指数只有117%。
Now, like I mentioned in the intro, Nick's fund, the Nomad Investment Partnership achieved a total return of 921% versus 117% for his benchmark.
在扣除费用之前，该基金的年均回报率为20.8%，而全球指数仅为6.5%。
Before fees, the fund achieved an average annual rate of return of 20.8% versus 6.5% for the world index.
他跑赢全球指数的幅度，简直太惊人了。
Just an incredible difference in how much he outperformed the world index.
克莱·诺斯每一年会写两封信给他的合伙人，详细说明基金的表现、分享他的投资理念，通常还会在每封信里重点分析两家公司，讲清楚它们的业务模式，以及为什么他认为这些公司被低估了。
Clay Now Sleep would write two letters per year to his partners where he would outline the performance of his fund, share his investment approach, and he'd usually outline two companies in each letter that he sent out discussing what the business did and why he thought the company was undervalued.
这些信原本是私密的，但有人竟然在网上流传开来。
Originally, these letters were private, but apparently people were sharing them online.
尼克很不高兴，干脆把所有信件都公开了，让任何人都能查看。
Nick was upset and went ahead and shared all of them so anyone can view his letters.
他本人其实是个挺低调的人。
He's a pretty private person.
你要是去YouTube或者谷歌搜他的名字，根本找不到
Thirty:fifty if you search for his name on YouTube or Google, you won't find
任何一篇采访。
a single interview out there.
他为人非常低调，从不主动宣传自己。
He was just very private and wasn't very promotional in himself at all.
在这期节目中，我会主要讲尼克·斯利普，但他其实还有一个合伙人，叫凯斯·扎卡里亚。
Now, during this episode, I'm going to be focusing on Nick Sleep, but he actually had a partner in his fund too, Case Zachariah.
这两个人都是特别不走寻常路的投资者。
These two were both very unconventional investors.
我重点讲斯利普，是因为他写过那些信，但其实很多观点也完全适用于扎卡里亚。
I'm going to focus on Sleep because he had written all these letters, but I think a lot of this really applies to Zachariah as well.
威廉·格林在他的精彩著作《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》里，也写到了这两个人。
William Green covered both of them in his brilliant book, Richer, Wiser, Happier.
不过在这期节目中，我还是会主要聚焦在尼克·斯利普身上。
And again, I'm just going to focus on Nick Sleep during this episode.
在这些信件的开头，他还附上了一封写给沃伦·巴菲特的信，告知巴菲特多年来对他们的投资理念产生了巨大影响。
And at the very beginning of the letters he posted, he also included a letter that he wrote to Warren Buffett when he closed his fund, letting him know that Buffett just had an enormous impact on their investment approach over the years.
由于基金即将关闭，他们打算卖出所持有的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票。
Since that fund was closing, they would be selling the fund's holdings in Berkshire Hathaway.
他还提到，Nomad合伙基金为客户创造了二十亿美元的收益，而伯克希尔在其中起到了关键作用。
He also wrote that the Nomad partnership made their investors $2,000,000,000 for their clients and that Berkshire was a big part of that.
尼克·斯利普住在英国伦敦。
Now Nick Sleep was based out of London in The UK.
有意思的是，他对美国的许多公司了如指掌，但也广泛投资于海外企业。
It's interesting to see how well versed he was in some of these companies in The US, but he did invest in a lot of companies internationally as well.
他从不害怕到其他国家寻找深度价值型标的，比如津巴布韦这样的国家。
He wasn't afraid to look in other countries to try and find these deep value type picks, such as a country like Zimbabwe.
有趣的是，斯利普的经历和巴菲特很相似，都是从寻找廉价企业、‘雪茄烟蒂’式投资，逐步转向注重企业质量。
Interestingly, Sleep went through a similar journey as Buffett transitioning from the focus on cheap businesses or the deep value cigarba type plays to the focus on quality businesses.
在他2001年写的第一封信里，他提到：‘我们在评估潜在投资时，寻找那些价格约为真实价值一半的企业，由具有主人翁精神的管理层运营，并采用与长期股东财富创造一致的资本配置策略。'
In his very first letter in 2001, he stated, When we evaluate potential investments, we are looking for businesses trading at around half of their real business value, companies run by owner oriented management and employing capital allocation strategies consistent with long term shareholder wealth creation.
要同时找到这三点很难，这也是为什么我们认为Nomad作为全球基金具有明显优势。
Finding all three is rare and that is why we think NOMAD has a material advantage in being a global fund.
这完全符合巴菲特后来的新思路。
Falls very well in line with Buffett's new line of thinking.
不过在2002年的信里，他向股东们明确了合伙基金打算投资的企业类型。
However, in his 2002 letter, he outlined to shareholders the types of businesses the partnership was to invest in.
关于基金的一些最终数据。
Quote, A few final statistics on the fund's characteristics.
基金大约37%的资金投在了那些优质、难以复制的特许经营企业上，比如报纸、电视台、消费品牌和赌场。
Approximately 37% of the fund is invested in quality, difficult to copy franchises such as newspapers, TV stations, consumer brand names, and casinos.
27%投在了所谓的折价资产型公司，比如房地产、酒店或集团企业，这些公司的固定资产或现金占了估值的很大一部分。
27% is invested in what can be described as discounted asset based businesses such as property, hotels, or conglomerates, where fixed assets or cash made up a large portion of the appraised value.
最后，17%投在了深度价值型机会上，比如施乐，这些公司的股价因短期利润下滑、债务问题或前任管理层遗留问题而被低估。
And finally, 17% is invested in deep value workouts such as Xerox, where prices are depressed by temporary factors such as short term profits, debt, or the legacy of previous management.
我们现在的赢家主要来自第一类，而亏损的则集中在后一类。
It is the first category that contains our current winners and the latter that contains our losers.
时间一长，这两类投资都会出赢家。
In time, both will contain winners.
总的来说，我们估计市场目前对我们的投资标的的定价，只有其真实价值的51%。
In aggregate, we estimate our investments are currently priced by the market at 51% of their real worth.
换句话说，在我们看来，我们是用51美分买了一美元。
That is to say, in our opinion, we bought dollar bills for 51¢.
现在，斯利普之所以广为人知，是因为他大部分财富都来自三家公司：亚马逊、好市多和伯克希尔哈撒韦。
Now Sleep is widely known for making much of his fortune on just three high quality businesses, Amazon, Costco, and Berkshire Hathaway.
但有意思的是，看他早期的信件，他的投资其实遍布多个国家和行业。
But interestingly, when looking at his early letters, he was diversified across a number of different countries and industries.
我认为这说明，对像斯利普这样的投资者来说，哪怕一个、两个，甚至三个股票，只要选中了像他那样的大赢家，就能主导绝大部分回报。
I think this goes to show that just one or two or even three stocks in a particular portfolio really drive the majority of the returns for an investor like Sleep, assuming that he ends up picking a big winner like he did.
在2002年的年度信中，他谈到了市场群体以及他们对市场的影响力。
In his 2002 annual letter, he talked about the crowd and the influence they have on the markets.
他引用了弗雷德·施韦德在《一点奇妙的建议》这本书里的一句话。
He shared a quote from Fred Schwed in his book, A Little Wonderful Advice.
他说：当股市狂热、人人都在抢购股票时，就把手里的股票全卖了。
Quote, When there is a stock market boom and everyone is scrambling for common stocks, take all your common stocks and sell them.
把卖股票的钱拿去买稳健的债券。
Take the proceeds and buy conservative bonds.
你卖的那些股票肯定还会继续涨。
No doubt the stocks you sold will go higher.
这点你要特别注意。
Pay attention to this.
耐心等着经济衰退吧，迟早会来的。
Just wait for the depression, which will come sooner or later.
等到经济衰退或市场恐慌演变成全国性危机时，就把债券全抛了——哪怕亏本也要卖，然后重新买回股票。
When this depression or panic becomes a national catastrophe, sell out all the bonds, perhaps at a loss, and buy back the stocks.
股票肯定还会继续跌。
No doubt that the stocks will go lower still.
这时候，别管它，别理会。
Again, pay no attention.
等下一轮牛市到来。
Wait for the next boom.
只要活着就不断重复这个操作，三十次、五十次，你就能带着财富安然离世。
Continue to repeat this operation thirty:fifty as long as you live and you'll have the pleasure of dying rich.
考虑到当前利率上升的环境，我觉得这一点挺有意思。
Now I thought this was interesting considering the current environment of rising rates.
现在这种情况正在压低债券价格。
This is currently crushing bond prices.
所以债券我个人是完全不碰的。
So bonds are personally something I totally avoid.
但这并不是我想通过这句话传达的重点。
That isn't really the point I wanted to get across with this quote.
普通人投资的时间窗口非常短，很少有人真去评估一家企业的实际价值，反而总是盯着新闻头条里的最新数据，来判断股价短期会怎么走。
Sleep making that point that investment timeframes are very compressed for the crowd And few investors even bother to assess the real value of a business, but instead respond to the latest data point that's in the headlines to determine where the price is going to go in the short term.
比如，当一只高增长股票在几个月内涨了两倍，华尔街又给它设了更高的目标价，散户就会蜂拥而入，觉得既然最近涨得这么猛，那肯定还会继续涨下去。
So for example, when a high flying growth stock triples in a matter of months and Wall Street puts a price target on it much higher than where it's at, retail investors will flood in because they believe the share price appreciation will just simply continue just because it's gone up recently.
华尔街还说，他们预计股价会一直涨下去。
And Wall Street stated that they predicted to just keep going up.
2021年你就能看到，有些成长股价格翻了三倍，华尔街却还给出更高的目标价。
You saw that with growth stocks in 2021, a company would triple in price and Wall Street would just put a price target that's higher than what the stock was currently at.
他们只盯着短期趋势，而且有动力让你不断买卖，因为他们的利润来自点差和交易手续费。
They're just really looking at the short term trends and they're incentivized to get people to continue to buy and sell because they make profits on the spreads and on the fees that they are charging.
相反，克莱现在关注的是企业真正的内在价值，就像巴菲特那样。
Clay Now conversely, Sleep is focusing on determining the true underlying value of the business, just like Buffett.
只有当股价低于这个价值，并且有足够的安全边际时，他才会出手买入。
And he only makes a purchase when the stock is trading below that value with a large margin of safety.
他借鉴了本杰明·格雷厄姆的‘市场先生’概念，
So he's taking Benjamin Graham's idea of Mr.
能敏锐察觉到市场对优质企业定价过低或过高时的非理性时刻。
Market and recognizing when the market is irrationally pricing great businesses.
他说，今天追高的人，未来就没了翻盘的资本。
He said that, Those that chase high prices today leave less gunpowder for the future.
实际上，他们对未来的机遇几乎不值一提。
In effect, they value future opportunities close to nil.
所以机会成本也在一定程度上影响着我们的决策。
So opportunity cost is partly behind our decisions as well.
Sleep承认，Nomad相比其他投资者最大的优势就是耐心。
Sleep acknowledged that Nomad's key advantage over other investors was patience.
他认为，他们是市场上为数不多真正坚持长期投资的群体。
He believed that they were one of few investors in the market who were truly long term investors.
正如他所说，只有看得比短期投机者更远，才有可能超越他们。
As he stated, Only by looking out farther than the short term crowd can we expect to beat them.
我觉得，Sleep和Zachariah所采取的这种长期策略，带来了不少实实在在的好处。
And I think there are a number of really good benefits to taking this long term approach that Sleep and Zachariah implemented.
首先，研究一家公司的工作大多在一开始就完成了。
First off, a lot of the work around researching a business is done way upfront.
你能搞清楚这家公司的业务、它所处的行业，以及它到底是怎么赚钱的，等等。
You can understand the business, the industry it operates in, how exactly they make money, etcetera.
所以一旦你找到了想买入的优质企业，除了每季度或每年看看财报，之后基本就不用再做什么了。
So once you identify that great business you want to purchase, outside of reviewing the reports every quarter or every year, you don't need to do much work after your original purchase.
这让我想起巴菲特谈苹果时，说他把苹果当成自己买下的一片农场。
It reminds me of Buffett talking about Apple in that he treats Apple like his purchase of a farm.
他一年大概只检查一两次收成，看看农场经营得怎么样。
He checks on the yield maybe once or twice a year and see how the farm's performing.
除此之外，他知道买的是家好公司，未来很可能会持续盈利。
But other than that, he knows he bought a great company that's likely to just continue to produce those profits into the future.
他相信公司有优秀的管理团队，会把该做的事都处理好。
He knows that there's quality management in place to take care of what needs to be done.
他根本不用操心日常运营或股价的短期波动。
He's really not worrying about the day to day operations, the day to day stock movements.
他只是坚持长期的思维和做法。
He just has that long term mindset and approach.
所以，这类投资的大部分工作，其实都在前期就做完了。
So again, a lot of the work around this is done upfront.
我觉得这是个巨大的优势，因为你一旦找到了想持有的好公司，之后就可以放手去做别的事，生活中的其他部分都能轻松不少。
I think that's a huge advantage because you can just go out and do other things thirty:fifty in your life after you've found those great companies you want to own.
第二个优势是，只要你让企业持续复利增长，就能逐年推迟资本利得税。
The second advantage is that you're deferring your capital gains taxes for each year you let the business continue to compound.
沃伦·巴菲特把这称作政府给你的无息贷款——你不断推迟缴税，这太棒了，因为你的投资能更强劲地复利增长。
Warren Buffett referred to this as an interest free loan from the government where you're continuing to defer that tax bill, which is just tremendous because your investments can compound more forcefully.
最终，只要公司持续以复利方式增长，你的财富积累就会更可观。
And in the end, really make more money assuming the company continues to grow in compound capital.
这其实是在对比两种方式：一种是长期买入优质企业，让它自然复利；另一种是每隔两三年就频繁买卖，等价格跌到离谱时买入，等回升到合理水平就卖出。
It's really comparing this long term buy a great business and let it compound versus continually trade in and out of stuff every two or three years when stuff gets ridiculously cheap and then goes back to fair value.
我觉得这种对比很有意思，我也特别认同巴菲特和现在斯利普所坚持的长期主义理念。
So I just think that's an interesting comparison and I love those reasons for preferring the long term approach that Buffett and now Sleep implement into their style.
在这个时代，我们无时无刻不被短期诱惑包围——看看快餐行业，人们疯狂借贷；看看社交媒体，似乎人人都被激励着凭冲动思考和行动。
In a world where we are just bombarded with these short term incentives and tendencies from you look at fast food industry, people taking on a ton of debt, you look at social media, it just seems like everyone everywhere is just simply incentivized to think and act on their impulses.
读尼克·斯利普的作品，简直像吹来一阵清风，他堪称长期投资的典范。
It was almost a breath of fresh air to read Nick Sleep's work as he is the pinnacle of what it means to be a long term investor.
接下来，我想再多聊聊他的整体投资策略。
Next, I wanted to talk a little bit more about his overall investment approach.
在2003年的股东信中，斯利普阐述了这家合伙企业的整体方法。
In his 2003 shareholder letter, Sleep outlined the partnership's overall approach.
他提到，他们的目标是以低于企业实际价值一半的价格买入，也就是五毛钱买一块钱的东西。
He stated that their aim is to make investments at prices they consider to be 50¢ on the dollar of what a typical firm is worth.
此外，他还期望企业自身每年能以大约10%的速度提升内在价值。
Plus he would expect the business itself to grow its intrinsic value by around 10% per year.
五年下来，一美元的价值就能增长到1.62美元，而能这样持续创造价值的公司，市场通常会给予合理的估值。
The effect over five years will be to compound $1 of value into $1.62 And companies that can build value like this are normally rewarded in the market with a fair valuation.
这意味着，如果当初以五毛钱的价格买入，年化回报率大约能达到26%。
This outcome would imply a return from purchase price of 50¢ of around 26% per annum.
也就是说，从五毛钱买进，到五年后涨到1.62美元，中间是打了五折入手的。
So from that 50¢ mark to the $1.62 at the end of five years after buying at a 50% discount.
可见，斯利普对投资标的的要求非常严格。
So quite strict standards that Sleep is looking for here.
你听到这里，可能在想：这简直太厉害了。
You're likely listening to this and thinking, Wow, this is amazing.
尼克每笔投资都能拿到26%的回报。
Nick was able to get a 26% return with each of his investments.
不过，他选的一半项目最终都没能达到当初预期的效果。
Well, about half of his picks would not go quite as well as he originally assessed.
很多时候，这些投资只是原地踏步，拉低了他的平均回报率，大概在13%左右。
So oftentimes these picks would just simply remain flat, which would bring his average expected return to around 13% give or take.
他认为，他们最常见的错误，是误判了所选公司资本配置的决策。
He believed that their most common mistake is to misjudge capital allocation decisions by the companies they selected.
尼克提到，他和扎克大部分时间都花在两件事上：第一，确保买入价格至少是公司内在价值的一半。
Nick mentions that most of his and Zach's time was spent one, ensuring that the purchase price was at least half of what the intrinsic value of the company was.
第二，确保管理层的资本配置合理，以及公司长期回报的可持续性。
And two, ensuring proper capital allocation of the management team, as well as the sustainability of the business returns in the long run.
投资者持有的时间越长，最终结果就越取决于这两点。
The longer investors own shares, the more their outcomes is linked to these two metrics.
有些听众可能会好奇，为什么像尼克·斯利普、沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格这些顶尖投资者，对那些年增速远超百分之十或二十的公司提不起兴趣。
Some of the listeners might be wondering why investors like Nick Sleep, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and many of these other greats aren't interested in companies that are growing much faster than say 10 or 20% per year.
其实去年我也是这么想的。
I was actually in that camp last year.
既然有年增长百分之五十的公司，我干嘛要选只增长百分之十的呢？
Why would I own a company growing at 10% when I could own a company that's growing at 50%?
斯利普对此有过解释。
Well, Sleep talks about this.
归根结底，还是看企业的内在价值。
It all comes down to the underlying value.
尼克提到，像EMC、戴尔、PMC、西拉和微软这些公司在九十年代都是大赢家，但当时几乎没人能从九十年代初一直持有到结束。
Nick mentions that companies like EMC, Dell, PMC, Sierra, and Microsoft were big winners through the '90s, yet practically no one was holding shares during that period, at least since the early '90s and holding all the way through.
尼克承认，他错过了这些公司。
Nick admits that he missed out on these companies.
他说，关于戴尔，他当时大概会判断，这家公司很可能做不下去。
He said, In regards to Dell, he said, He likely would have concluded that it was likely that the business would not succeed.
所以他就会去别处找投资机会。
So he'd just look somewhere else to invest.
他还引用了Empirical Research的迈克尔·戈德斯坦的一项研究，指出80%的高增长公司五年内增速就会放缓，90%的公司在十年内都会出现增长减速。
He then referenced a study by Michael Goldstein at Empirical Research that said that 80% of high growth companies would have their growth slow within five years and 90% of companies would have their growth slow within ten years.
这就是为什么这么多价值投资者在苹果、亚马逊和字母表公司早期阶段都避而远之。
This is why so many value investors avoid the likes of Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet in their early years.
当时几乎没人能预见这些公司未来还有这么长的增长空间。
Very few foresaw the growth runway that these companies had in them.
比尔·米勒和尼克·斯利普看穿了当时笼罩在亚马逊身上的负面情绪，最终获得了巨额回报，后面你会了解到详情。
Bill Miller and Nick Sleep ended up seeing through the negativity that spooked investors around Amazon and they just profited tremendously as you'll come to find out.
很多成长型股票无法持续高速增长，根本原因在于，高额利润和快速扩张会吸引大量竞争者和资本涌入，最终把利润一点点蚕食掉。
The big reason why so many growth stocks don't continue their extraordinary growth is because fast profits and fast growth encourage competition and capital flows into an industry and they really just eat away at those profits.
我觉得Peloton就是个很好的例子。
I think Peloton is a great example here.
它们当时吸引了大量关注。
They got a lot of attention.
他们增长得特别快。
They were growing really fast.
接着，一大堆其他自行车公司涌入市场，产品都差不多，有的稍作改动，有的干脆卖得更便宜。
Then you see all these other bike companies that have very similar products just flood in, offer slightly different variations of the product or maybe offer it at an even cheaper price.
这种竞争方式直接把增长势头给压下去了。
The growth really gets attacked in that manner.
我还想聊聊尼克对投资组合分散的看法。
I wanted to shed some light on Nick's thoughts on portfolio diversification as well.
他说，在理想情况下，他会持有50只股票，每只都以接近内在价值的折扣价交易，而且他对每一只都有同等程度的信心。
In a perfect world, he said he would own 50 stocks trading at a similar discount to intrinsic value and had similar levels of conviction built in each of them.
但现实远非理想，能让他下注的好机会实在太少了。
However, the world is anything but perfect and ideas that are strong enough for him to invest in are rare.
除了巴菲特和芒格，尼克也很敬佩比尔·米勒，他管理着Legg Mason价值信托基金。
Other than Buffett and Munger, Nick also looked up to Bill Miller who ran the Legg Mason Value Trust.
比尔确实上过威廉·格林的播客《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》。
Bill has actually been on William Green's podcast, Richer, Wiser, Happier.
如果你感兴趣，我一定会在节目笔记里附上链接。
If you're interested in checking that out, I'll be sure to link that in the show notes.
比尔·米勒认为，对一项投资越有信心，就越该把更多资产押在上面。
Bill Miller followed the idea that the more sure that the investment thesis would work out, the more of your assets you should invest in that idea.
有意思的是，比尔在威廉的播客里公开说，他的净资产超过40%投在亚马逊股票上，另外40%以上投在比特币里。
Funnily enough, Bill publicly stated on William's podcast that he has over 40% plus of his net worth in Amazon stock and 40% plus in Bitcoin as well.
也就是说，在播客录制时，他的净资产超过八成都押在了这两项资产上。
Meaning that over 80% of his net worth at the time of the podcast recording was riding on just two assets.
比尔和威廉在对话中详细聊过这两项投资，如果你想知道更多，可以去听。
Bill and William discussed both of these during their conversation if you're interested in learning more.
不只是Sleep和扎卡里亚敬佩比尔·米勒，比尔本人也欣赏他们，还亲自投资了Nomad基金。
Not only did Sleep and Zachariah look up to Bill Miller as an investor, but Bill Miller also admired them as he personally invested in the Nomad Fund.
这种高度集中的投资方式有个问题：你根本无法准确知道一项投资真正成功的概率有多大。
The problem with this approach to having a concentrated portfolio is that you don't know the true probability that an investment actually works out.
你可能信心十足，但也许漏掉了关键信息，或者市场根本没看到你看到的东西。
You might have super high conviction, but you might be missing something or the market may not see what you're seeing.
你只能根据现有事实做出有根据的推测，这才是真相。
You can only make an educated guess based on the facts, is the truth of the situation.
普通基金经理根本不知道他们的投资最终会怎样。
The average fund manager likely has no clue how an investment will work out.
尼克说，他们之所以过度分散投资，主要是为了营销，让客户觉得更安心，因为收益更平稳，也更贴近市场基准。
Nick stays that they over diversify for marketing purposes and make their clients more comfortable investing with them as returns are more stable and in line with the benchmarks.
集中投资于少数最佳机会，虽然每年的回报波动会更大，但只要选对了标的，长期回报会高得多。
A highly concentrated portfolio with only the best ideas will lead to more volatile results year over year, but a much higher longer term return assuming that the right mix of investments are selected.
2006年，Nomad基金将六分之一的资产投在了亚马逊上，因为他们坚信它会大幅跑赢市场。
In 2006, one sixth of assets were invested in Amazon from the Nomad Fund as they had high conviction that it would be a strong outperformer.
他们很清楚，这样做会让基金的波动性远超普通基金，但他们一点也不在意，因为他们完全明白自己买的是什么。
They knew all too well that it would lead to the fund being much more volatile than your typical fund, but it did not bother them one bit because they fully understood what they owned.
但尼克明白，人生中真正能看透的事情其实很少。
But Nick knew that only a few big things in life were knowable.
而在这些少数能看透的事情里，真正值得投的机遇更是凤毛麟角。
And within those big things, only a few select investments are available.
既然真正能确定的事情寥寥无几，那么在尼克看来，为了迎合金融行业所谓的‘分散风险’而盲目加进更多公司，非但不会降低风险，反而会增加风险。
Since only a few things can be known for sure, this means that adding more companies to his portfolio just for the sake of what the finance industry would call diversifying in Nick's view would not decrease his risk, but increase it.
就像世界上许多富豪都是靠一家公司发家的——想想杰夫·贝佐斯、沃伦·巴菲特、比尔·盖茨——斯利普也采取了同样的策略，紧紧抓住这些绝佳的投资机会。
Just like how many of the world's wealthiest people got rich off one company, think of Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Sleep was taking a similar approach by riding the wave of these spectacular investments as well.
普雷斯顿，我们先插个广告，听听今天的赞助商。
Preston Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
普雷斯顿，对线上交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步吗？
Preston Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?
你不是一个人。
You're not alone.
Plus500 是个不错的起点。
And plus five hundred futures is a great place to start.
期货市场变化很快，有了 Plus500，你可以轻松接触原油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。
The futures markets are moving fast and with plus 500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
从加密货币到大宗商品，总有什么在发生。
From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.
这个平台用起来特别简单，随时随地都能用手机交易。
The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.
只要一百美元就能入门，马上开始操作。
You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.
看到感兴趣的东西了吗？
See something interesting?
账户开好后，点几下就能交易了。
Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.
如果还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。
And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.
零风险，没压力。
No risk, no pressure.
Plus 500有二十年经验，让交易变得前所未有的简单。
With twenty years of experience, Plus 500 makes trading more accessible than ever.
去 +500.com 看看吧。
Check it out at +500.com.
交易和期货存在亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请人都能通过审核。
Trading and futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.
Plus 500，让交易更胜一筹。
Plus 500, it's trading with a plus.
有人说，你每天推迟拥抱AI，就会落后两天，那竞争对手呢？
They say every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind and the competition?
他们可是在加速前进。
They're only moving faster.
幸运的是，NetSuite Next来了。
Fortunately, there's NetSuite next.
你可能已经听说过NetSuite，这是一套由AI驱动的商业系统，能安全地把你的所有数据、财务、库存、电商、人力和客户关系整合在一个可信的统一平台上，全球已有四万三千多家企业信赖它。
You probably already know NetSuite, the AI powered business suite that securely connects all your data, financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM all in one source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.
NetSuite Next是一次巨大的飞跃，因为现在AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。
NetSuite Next is the next huge leap because now AI is built into everything you do.
它会在你全天的工作中主动提供个性化洞察，AI助手帮你处理日常事务，无论你有什么问题，随时像跟同事聊天一样问它就行。
It surfaces custom insights throughout your day, AI agents work alongside you on the routine stuff, and anytime you've got a question about anything, you just ask like you're talking to a colleague.
我一直在用，真心建议你也试试。
And I use it and really I think you should too.
史上第一次，你可以免费试用 NetSuite Next。
For the first time ever, you can try NetSuite Next for free.
如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，就去 netsuite.aitip 看看。
If your revenue is at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.aitip.
适合所有行业，随时准备进入董事会，netsuite.aitip。
Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom, netsuite.aitip.
作为投资者，我们整天研究优秀的企业，但最好的回报往往来自自己亲手打造一家公司。
As investors, we spend all day studying great businesses, but some of the best returns come from building one yourself.
如果你一直有创业点子，Shopify 能让你轻松把它变成现实。
If you've been sitting on a business idea, Shopify makes it easy to actually make it happen.
从第一天起，所有开店所需的工具都已内置好，随时可用。
Everything you need to start selling is included and ready from day one.
当第一位客户准备付款时，就是你行动的时刻。
Take the moment your first customer is ready to pay.
Shopify 的结账流程能帮助更多顾客完成购买。
Shopify checkout helps more of them finish the purchase.
等他们再回来时，信息都已经自动保存好了。
And when they come back, their details are already saved.
点一下就搞定。
One tap and they're done.
因为 Shopify 负责了搭建和结账的所有流程，你就能腾出更多时间专注在真正推动业务增长的事情上，而且还有配套工具帮你实现。
And because Shopify handles the setup and the checkout, you get more time to focus on what actually grows the business plus the tools to do it.
如果我要从零开始创业，我一定会自己用 Shopify。
If I were starting a business, I would absolutely use Shopify myself.
全球数百万家企业都在用 Shopify，从美泰、Gymshark 这样的大品牌，到刚刚起步的创业者，都在 shopify.com/tip 上起步。
It powers millions of businesses worldwide from names like Mattel and Gymshark to founders just getting started at shopify.com/tip.
有了 Shopify，你的想法和真正的生意之间再没有任何障碍。
With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business.
所以，现在就去把它做出来吧。
So go make it one.
立即前往 shopify.com/tip 开始免费试用。
Start your free trial at shopify.com/tip.
立即前往 shopify.com/tip 开始免费试用。
Start your free trial at shopify.com/tip.
好了，我们继续回到节目。
All right, back to the show.
克莱，我还觉得斯利普关于业绩和基准对比的分析特别有意思。
Clay I also found Sleep's commentary around performance and benchmarking his performance to be quite interesting.
他认为，自己的投资方式在牛市中会跑输大盘，但在熊市中会跑赢市场。
He believes that the way in which he invests will lead him to underperform the overall market during bull markets and outperform the market during bear markets.
这种观点对他的很多传统价值型选股来说确实说得通，但像亚马逊这样的公司，我觉得情况恰恰相反。
Now, this makes sense with many of his traditional value type picks, but I think with a company like Amazon, I think actually the opposite is true.
尽管他们对这类相对指数或基准的表现有这种看法，但由于市场的不确定性，他们根本不太在意这些。
Despite this thinking around how they might perform relative to the index or their benchmark, they really don't pay much attention to it at all because of the somewhat randomness of the market.
他们真正关注的是长期目标，以及他们所说的‘目的地分析’。
What they are really focused on is the long term and what they call Destination Analysis.
他们认为市场指数或者别的基金用作基准的东西，不过是市场提供的一种选择而已。
They see the market index or what other funds use as their benchmark as something that is simply offered by the market.
这只是他们可以投入资金的众多可能性中的一个。
And it's just one of many potential investment opportunities they can place their money.
尼克和扎克追求的是长期回报，他们会从市场上众多股票里挑选投资标的。
Nick and Zach are targeting a certain long term return and they can invest in a number of stocks available on the market.
他们对每一个机会都用概率的眼光来评估。
And they think of each opportunity very probabilistically.
他们不会仅仅因为指数就在那儿就去投资，因为他们能找到更有希望实现长期目标的机会。
They don't invest in the index simply because they can find better opportunities that offer them a higher probability of reaching their desired destination over the long run.
最终重要的不是哪一年跑赢了指数，而是能不能达成自己设定的目标。
In the end, reaching the desired destination is what is actually important, not whether they beat the index in any given year.
关于这种目标分析，斯利普说过：你希望到八十岁回头看时，能觉得自己公平对待了客户，尽职尽责，善用财富，而不是想着自己有四套房、一架私人飞机。
Related to this idea of destination analysis, Sleep stated, You want to be able to look back at 80 years old and think that you treated your clients equitably, did your job properly, gave money away properly, and not that you had four houses in a jet.
在2006年的年终信里，尼克写道：我们的目标是建立一份值得骄傲的投资记录。
His two thousand and six year end letter, Nick stated, Our goal is a track record to be proud of.
我们希望做点真正有意义的事。
We wish to accomplish something meaningful.
为此，我们希望长期回报能跟那些我们非常敬佩的投资者看齐。
And to do that, we aim to earn returns over time on par with those investors we greatly admire.
我们不保证一定能赚钱，但只要能接近他们的成绩，时间一长，自然就能跑赢大盘。
In no way do we guarantee returns, but if we can approach their results, then over time we will beat the index too.
我觉得这种观点特别有意思，因为我认识很多聪明的投资者，他们就是死活不买指数基金以外的任何东西，哪怕只是作为投资组合的主体。
I find this perspective fascinating because I know so many smart investors that simply refuse to buy anything but an index fund for their portfolio or for the majority of their portfolio.
这种做法本身也没啥大问题，但如果你铁了心只买指数，那当那些难得一遇的绝佳机会出现时，你连考虑的机会都没有，更别提抓住它来获得高得多的预期回报了。
There's nothing particularly wrong with that approach, but I think if you're so dead set on only purchasing the index, then I think when those rare fantastic opportunities do come along, you're not giving yourself the opportunity to capitalize on that or even consider the opportunity to achieve significantly higher expected returns.
但如果你真买了指数以外的东西，就得对它在一两年内跑赢或跑输大盘保持中立态度。
But if you do purchase something outside of the index, have to be somewhat agnostic about whether it outperforms or underperforms relative to the index in one or two years.
你得像Sleep说的那样，有长远的眼光，我觉得这一点很重要。
You have to have that long term approach just like Sleep in my opinion.
而且你最好心里清楚，为什么它会在多年里跑赢或跑输大盘。
And you probably need to have a good idea as to why it does or does not outperform over a number of years.
我读Sleep的信时，特别关注他在金融危机期间写了些什么。
One of my parts about reading Sleep's letters was what he was writing during the great financial crisis.
当他的基金大幅下跌时，他心里是怎么想的？他的投资策略有没有因此改变？
What were his thoughts when his fund was down substantially and did his approach change at all?
为了让听众有个参照，整个市场在2007年10月左右见顶，随后进入了熊市。
To give the audience a frame of reference, the overall market peaked around October 2007 before it proceeded into a bear market.
到了2008年下半年，抛售潮才真正爆发，投资者的信念受到了严峻考验。
In later 2008 is when the waterfall of selling really occurred and investors were really tested with their conviction in their holdings.
到2008年底，Nomad基金下跌了45%，而他在信中提到的MSCI全球指数也跌了40%。
At the end of 2008, the Nomad Fund was down 45% while the MSCI World Index he references in his letters was down 40%.
尽管2008年表现惨淡，Sleep却说，这种时候恰恰是投资者最好的时机——这话说得真及时，因为今年2022年我们也看到了股价下跌。
Despite the atrocious performance in 2008, Sleep stated that these times are the best of times for an investor, which is pretty timely to mention given that today we've seen lower stock prices in 2022.
他在2008年给股东的信里谈到，我们生活的方方面面都被推向了极致：投资者想把每一分钱都投出去，企业只要有能力就拼命加杠杆，我们的工作日塞满了任务，连在办公室的每一分钟都被充分利用。
In his 2008 letter to shareholders, he discussed the total optimization of everything in our day to day lives, from investors wanting to invest every dollar possible to businesses that want to take on debt if they have the capacity to, to our workdays filled with work, to every single minute when we are in the office.
在我们的资本主义世界里，几乎所有东西都被很多人推到了极致。
Everything in our capitalistic world seems to be maximized by so many.
正如纳西姆·塔勒布所说，资本主义从不教人留余地，它教人极致优化。
As Nassim Taleb put it, Capitalism does not teach slack, it teaches optimization.
我不禁想到2021年我们看到的那些景象。
And I can't help but think of what we saw in 2021.
你总能看到雷·达利奥的 headlines 说，现金就是垃圾，你手里没投资的每一分钱，都像一块正在融化的冰块，迟早会化得一干二净。
You'd see these headlines from Ray Dalio that cash is trash and every dollar you don't have invested in some way is essentially a melting ice cube that will eventually become worthless.
现在呢，ARK基金和加密货币暴跌了七成以上，利率又在攀升，美联储猛踩刹车，把所有资产的价格都压了下来。
Now we see the ARK funds and cryptocurrencies crashing down 70% plus and interest rates are on the rise, pushing the prices of all assets down substantially as the federal reserve slammed the brakes on the thirty:fifty economy.
从短期来看，最大化产出确实看起来是个好主意。
Now in the short term, the output maximization does look like a great idea.
但问题在于，一有钱就立刻投出去、全仓押注，等于默认了所有机会都会立刻摆在你面前。
The flaw, however, to putting money to work immediately and being fully invested is to assume that all relevant opportunity sets are available immediately.
比如说，你投了一家公司，预期回报率8%，也不算差。
Say one invests in a company with an expected return of say 8%, not too bad.
可你一旦投了，就放弃了未来遇到更好机会时再出手的权利。
However, by making that investment, you're giving up the opportunity to invest in a much better opportunity should it come along in the future.
这并不是说，当你觉得市场被高估时，就得把所有钱都变成现金，一直等到绝佳机会出现。
This isn't to say that when you believe that the market is overvalued, you should go 100% cash or anything until a ripe opportunity comes.
我觉得斯利普说得很有道理，应该像巴菲特那样，手里留点闲钱，万一真有天大的机会来了，也好抓住。
I think Sleep does make a strong case to use this Buffett like approach of having extra cash on the sidelines in case incredible opportunities do happen to come along.
他把这叫做在自己的流程里留点余地，别总想着把每一分资源都压榨到极致。
He calls this having a little bit of slack in your processes and to not always be focused on optimization.
斯利普也清楚，他真正了解、真正钟爱的那些企业，都是具有规模经济优势的公司。
Sleep also recognized that the businesses he really knew well and really loved were businesses with scale economies.
像好市多和亚马逊这样的公司，不管经济好坏，它们的表现都一样稳健。
These companies like Costco and Amazon that he owned, they were doing just as well in the bad economic times as they were in the good.
虽然我待会儿会详细讲规模经济这个模型，但现在我想先聊聊金融危机。
While overall, I'll be diving into the scaled economics model here in a little bit, but I want to focus on the financial crisis now.
尽管整体零售额下降了10%，亚马逊在2008年圣诞节前的最大单日销售额，却比2007年高出16%。
While overall retail sales were down 10%, Amazon's biggest day leading up to Christmas was 16% higher in 2008 than in 2007.
即使他们持有的很多股票在2008年跌了五成，这些企业的实际业务却依然在强劲增长。
Even though many of the companies they owned were down 50% in 2008, the businesses themselves still continued to surge ahead.
他说，亚马逊的股价看起来像是公司未来不会增长，可实际上，他们看到的却是公司有史以来最亮眼的增长前景。
He said that Amazon was priced as if it wouldn't grow in the future, despite them seeing some of the best growth prospects they could ever imagine for a company.
到2009年年中，亚马逊的营收在过去几年里增长了60%以上，但股价却一片悲观。
By mid-two thousand and nine, Amazon's revenues were up over 60% over the past couple of years, yet the stock was all doom and gloom.
公司表现得太好了，简直像是金融危机反而让亚马逊变得更强大了。
The business did so well, it was almost as if a credit crisis made Amazon's business even stronger than it would have been otherwise.
这是Sleep在2008年信件结尾的总结：媒体上的评论全都阴郁消极，这进一步压低了股价。
Here's how Sleep rounded out his 2008 letter, The commentary in the press is uniformly gloomy and this is serving to depress share prices.
我们知道，现在的价格比几年前低了不少，而企业的行为也在好转。
What we know is that prices are lower than a few years ago and corporate behavior is improving.
我们对那些不幸失业，或被他人因忙于应付而犯下的错误和丑闻牵连的人，绝无半点不敬之意。
We mean no disrespect to those unfortunate enough to lose their jobs or caught up in other people's too busy to think mistakes and scandals.
但从投资者的角度来看，今天值得担心的事，其实比几年前少多了。
But from the perspective of an investor, there is less to worry about today than there was a few years ago.
说实话，我怀疑担忧本身根本解决不了什么问题。
Indeed, I doubt that worrying is the solution to anything particularly.
我们想起了丘吉尔讲过的一个临终之人的故事。
We are reminded of Winston Churchill's story of a man on his deathbed.
我这一生遇到过很多麻烦，”垂死的人说，“但大部分根本没发生过。
I have had a lot of trouble in my life, saying the dying man, most of which never happened.
也许你现在感觉不到，但对长期投资者来说，现在正是最好的时候，而不是最糟的时候。
It may not feel like it, but for a long term investor, this is the best of times, not the worst.
正是在这种环境下，有人把他的GTO跑车以750英镑卖了，但请振作起来，望向远方。
It is in this environment that people sell their GTOs for £750, take heart and look to the horizon.
这里提到的GTO，是指他讲过的一个汽车故事——那辆车便宜得离谱。
Now this reference to the GTO is referring to a story he told about a motor car that sold for just ridiculously cheap.
这个故事本身对本集的主旨没那么重要，但他如何把这故事和自己联系起来，我觉得挺有意思。
The story itself isn't all that important for the intentions of this episode, but how he relates the story to himself, I found interesting.
他说，那位收藏家跳出常规思维，卷起袖子，做了些分析工作，发现了一个被当时多数同行忽视的、极具增长潜力的逆向投资机会。
He said that the collector thought outside of the box, rolled up his sleeves, did some analytical work and found a contrarian investment opportunity with great growth potential that few of his peers recognized at the time.
他以低价入手，然后一直持有，再也没有出手。
He lucked in at a low price, owned it forever.
最后，他当初付了多少钱其实并不重要，因为资产本身价值的增长，让这笔投资成了有史以来最成功的投资之一。
In the end, it did not matter what price he paid particularly as the growth in the underlying value made his purchase one of the best investments of all time.
他说，扎克和他都希望走同样的路。
He says that Zach and him aspire to such a roadmap.
我特别欣赏他应对市场全面动荡时的表达方式和思维方式。
I just loved the way he communicated and how he was thinking during the total market turmoil.
他明确表示，自己的投资策略不会改变。
He was clear that his investment approach wasn't going to change.
尽管市场一片混乱，他还是坦率地告诉股东，他们所持企业的内在价值正在提升，这正是以低价买入优质公司的绝佳机会。
And despite the total calamity in the markets, he was straight up telling shareholders that the underlying value of many of the businesses they owned were improving, thus giving investors the opportunity to buy great companies for cheap prices.
为了说明当时他有多正确——自2008年底以来，伯克希尔股价涨了344%，好市多涨了825%，亚马逊更是涨了4008%。
As a reference to just how right sleep was at this time of utter chaos, since the end of 2008, Berkshire today is up 344%, Costco is up 825% and Amazon is up 4008%.
我再说一遍，825%。
I repeat, 8%.
我原本以为2009年诺马德基金的表现会跑赢大盘，但没想到会好到这种程度。
Now I expected the recovery of the Nomad Fund to be pretty good relative to the index in the year to come in 2009, but I did not expect it to be this good.
2009年收官时，NOMAD基金上涨了71%，而全球指数仅上涨了30%。
To round out 2009, the NOMAD Fund was up 71% while the World Index was up 30%.
从2009年到2013年，NOMAD基金为投资者带来了404%的回报。
From 2009 through 2013, NOMAD returned investors 404%.
在Sleep公开发表的信件末尾，我有点意外地看到，他建议想更深入了解他投资理念的读者去读威廉·格林的《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》。
Now at the very end of the letters that Sleep published for the world to see, I was somewhat surprised to see that he mentioned that for his readers who wanted to learn more about him and his overall investment approach to go and read William Green's book, Richer, Wiser, Happier.
一个如此低调、从不接受采访、也从不自我宣传的人，居然在信的最后提到威廉的这本书，这让我特别欣赏——毕竟那本书是2021年才出版的。
Just coming from someone that's so private and won't do any interviews and is not promotional at all, I just love how he mentioned William's book at the end of his letters at the very end, because he released them in 2021 actually.
他说：威廉写出了我们很想写却自知无力完成的书。
He stated, William has written the kind of book that we would love to have written, but know that we lack the requisite skills.
我们相信你一定会喜欢这本书。
We are sure you will enjoy the read.
这话从一个对品质要求极高的人嘴里说出来，分量可不轻。
Is quite a statement from someone who has extraordinarily high standards for quality.
如果你还没读过威廉的这本书，我完全同意，你一定会喜欢。
And I agree that you'll definitely enjoy reading that book from William if you for some reason haven't yet.
威廉在书里提到，斯利普非常注重品质，他曾说：‘你做任何事都要追求品质，因为真正的满足和内心的平静就来自这里。’
In William's book, he highlighted Sleep's intense focus on quality as Sleep stated, You really want to do everything with quality as that is where the satisfaction and peace is.
斯利普把这种对品质的追求贯彻到了投资中，他把合伙投资看作是一场实验，测试如何以最高标准的方式去投资、思考和行事。
Sleep took this quality approach to investing quite literally as he saw the investment partnership as a laboratory test of sorts on how to invest, think, and behave in the most high quality manner possible.
这个精彩的观点，我是从威廉·格林的书里摘出来的。
I pulled that brilliant idea from William Green's book.
他其实对在投资行业赚大钱也毫无兴趣。
He really wasn't interested in making a fortune in the investment business either.
他仿佛是想向华尔街证明，投资领域也可以有道德的方式做生意。
It's almost as if he set out to prove to Wall Street that there is an ethical way to doing business in the investment world.
很多时候，如果他们觉得当时没有足够好的机会，就会直接拒绝投资者。
There were many times that they would actually turn away investors if they didn't feel that there were enough ripe opportunities at the time.
像他和扎克这样顶尖的投资者，居然会把上门的投资者拒之门外，这在投资界简直是闻所未闻。
To have somebody who is as good of an investor as him and Zach to turn away investors knocking at the door, I'm sure was just totally unheard of in the investment industry.
更别说，他们的管理费低得可怜，跟行业传统标准比起来简直微乎其微。
And on top of that, they charged a tiny miniscule management fee, at least compared to traditional standards.
他们能获得超过6%门槛收益部分的20%利润。
They got 20% of the profits above a 6% hurdle rate.
而不是投资经理通常收取的1%到2%的管理费。
And instead of the usual 1% to two percent fee charged by investment managers.
如果基金收益没达到门槛，他们会把之前收的部分费用退还给投资人。
If the fund actually fell short of its hurdle, they would refund a portion of those previously earned fees to shareholders.
对尼克和扎克来说，真正重要的是品质，钱对他们而言完全是次要的。
To Nick and Zach, it was really truly all about quality and the money was totally secondary for what they wanted to achieve.
睡眠后来提到，基金在2014年初关闭，原因有很多，包括监管机构带来的麻烦，还有他们想追求独立和新的冒险。
Sleep went on to say that the fund closed in early twenty fourteen for a number of reasons, including the headaches that regulators were providing them, as well as the desire for independence and a new adventure for them to explore.
我认为基金关闭后，睡眠转向了慈善和公益事业。
And I believe that Sleep went down the route of philanthropy and charitable causes after closing his fund.
基金结束时，资产规模增长到了大约30亿美元。
The fund at the end of its tenure had grown to around $3,000,000,000 in assets.
如果你想知道为什么睡眠对品质如此执着，我发现他有一本书对他影响特别大。
Now, if you're interested in why Sleep was just so obsessed with quality, I found it interesting that he had this one book that had just an enormous impact on him.
这本书叫《禅与摩托车维修艺术》。
It's called Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
我还没读过这本书。
I have not read this book.
我肯定会找时间看看。
I plan on definitely taking a look at it.
这本书其实是尼克当初刚成立基金时推荐给扎克读的。
And this is a book that Nick actually recommended that Zach read when they originally started the fund.
如果你对他的质量理念感兴趣，这本书或许能让你更深入了解他的想法。
For those interested in learning more about his quality approach, that might be an interesting story that you'd like to check out.
在他信件的最后，有一句话让我印象特别深：投资者可以通过思考获得成功，而不必像传统那样拼命工作。
Now, one quote that stuck out to me at the very end of his letters, he said, Investors can think their way to success without seeming to work in the traditional sense.
在资本主义体系里，选股带来的回报可能是惊人的。
And the payoff in capitalism from stock picking can be extraordinary.
我很喜欢这句话，觉得这是他众多深刻见解中的一个。
Just really liked that quote and I thought it was one of his many profound statements.
斯利普和扎卡里亚最终在45岁的时候就退休了，不再担任基金经理。
Sleep and Zachariah ended up retiring as fund managers at 45 years old.
从那以后，他们一直把自己的个人投资打理得不错，据威廉·格林的书里说，斯利普在退休头五年就把财富翻了三倍。
And since then, they've actually managed money quite well for their personal portfolios as Sleep tripled his wealth in the first five years of retirement according to William Green's book.
接下来，我想聊聊他对好市多和亚马逊的整体看法，以及他为什么这么看好这两家公司。
Next, I wanted to walk through his overall thoughts on Costco and Amazon and why he loved these investments so much.
然后我想讲一家叫ASOS的公司，他说最近给自己投资组合里添了这只股票。
Then I wanted to go through a business called ASOS, which is a company he stated to have recently purchased for his own portfolio.
好的。
All right.
那我们先从好市多说起。
So let's get started with Costco.
他最早是在2002年底的信里开始提到自己持有好市多的股份。
It was at the end of two thousand and two when he first started discussing his position in Costco in his letters.
那时候，好市多在他的基金里占了3.1%的仓位。
This was a 3.1% position in the fund at the time.
他很早就意识到Costco是个很棒的生意，而且直到今天他仍然持有它的股票。
He recognized early on that Costco was a great business and he still owns it today actually.
从2002年初到现在，Costco的股价涨了十倍。
Since the beginning of 2002, Costco shares are up tenfold.
简单回顾一下他们的商业模式：Costco是一家仓储式零售商，当时收取45美元的会员费，会员才能进店购物。
To give a quick recap of their business model, Costco is a warehouse retailer that charged a $45 membership fee at the time to allow members to shop in their store.
Costco与其他零售商的关键区别在于，它采用全天候低价策略。
A key differentiator for Costco relative to other retailers was that they implemented an everyday low pricing strategy.
他们对商品的加价从来不超过进货价的15%。
They never marked up their products more than 15% from what they bought them at.
而当时沃尔玛的加价率大约是20%，整个行业的标准则高达30%左右。
While Walmart at the time had markups around 20% and the industry standard was really around 30%.
所以Costco的顾客都知道，他们在这里买到的价格非常实在，根本不需要靠什么限时促销来吸引人。
So Costco customers know that Costco is giving them a great price on their products and there isn't really any marketing schemes to offer temporary discounts on their products.
你每次进Costco买东西，都能拿到一个很划算的价格，至少相对于他们从供应商那里进货的成本来说是这样。
You know every time you go into Costco and make a purchase, you're getting a great price at least relative to what they pay to their suppliers.
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我现在找企业时，特别看重吉姆·柯林斯提出的那个‘飞轮效应’。
Now, what I like to look for and find in a business is what Jim Collins popularized, which is called the flywheel effect.
Costco 的模式也明显有飞轮效应。
The Costco model definitely had a flywheel effect as well.
低价吸引顾客上门，顾客多了，利润自然就上去了。
The low prices would lure customers in, which means that Costco receives more profits as a result of the greater number of customers.
有了这些利润，Costco 就会找最佳机会，开更多新店。
Costco would then use those profits to go out and open more stores wherever they found the best opportunities to do so.
店越多，对供应商的议价能力就越强，反过来又吸引更多人办会员、来购物，就这么循环下去。
Since Costco then had more stores, they had more bargaining power over their suppliers, which in turn would incentivize even more customers to join and purchase that membership and so on and so forth.
这就是 Costco 的商业模式。
This was the Costco business model.
他们一直坚持低价策略，把节省的成本直接让给顾客，靠这份信任，让人年复一年地回来买买买。
The standard markup strategy they use continue to push the cost savings onto the customer and build that trust with them to keep coming back year after year after year to do more and more shopping.
Sleep 把 Costco 和亚马逊的模式统称为‘共享经济模型’。
Now, Sleep refers to the Costco and the Amazon business model actually as the shared economics model.
这两家公司成本控制得特别好，能给出超低的价格。
Both of these companies are super cost efficient, they can offer super low prices.
所以随着业务扩张，他们的价格还能越降越低，反过来又推动了更多增长。
So as the business grows, their prices are able to go lower and lower, which begets more growth.
公司越大，护城河就越深，竞争力越强，能持续的时间也越长——因为客户越来越多，门店也越开越多。
So as the business grows, their moat grows and the quality of the company and the amount of time the company is able to withstand extends as they grow, as they build more customers and build more stores.
说到底，客户才是公司成长的最大受益者。
So customers actually benefit from the growth of the company.
像耐克这种高毛利的公司就不一样了，消费者每年都要为他们的产品支付高价，耐克主要靠品牌忠诚度来维持。
For a company like say Nike that has a high margin business, the same really can't be said as each year they are paying a high margin for Nike's products and Nike's really relying on that brand loyalty.
但对好市多来说，公司越壮大，你每年买到的价格就越划算，规模效应实实在在地让利给了顾客。
But for Costco, you're getting better prices each year as the company grows and the economies of scale are shared with the customers.
当时，Sleep估算好市多每年能靠自身盈利实现大约14%的增长。
At the time, Sleep estimated that Costco could fund itself to grow at around 14% per year from that point.
他说，这种增长速度比当时零售业追捧的那些年增长30%甚至更高的公司要稳健得多。
He said that this level of growth was much more sustainable than the companies that the retail crowd was chasing at the time with growth of 30% or more for many of the companies.
他估计，Costco在美国能开到1000家店，在英国能开到200家店，而当时他们在美国只有284家，在英国只有14家。
He estimated that Costco could reach 1,000 stores in The US and 200 stores in The UK, while at the time they had two eighty four in The US and 14 in The UK.
根据他对市场的判断，这家公司还有巨大的长期增长空间。
So a ton of room for long term growth according to his assessment of the market.
Costco的股价在2000年一度涨到每股55美元左右，而根据他2002年给股东的信，他买入时的价格是每股30美元。
Costco's stock peaked in 2000 at around $55 per share and Nomad purchased at $30 per share according to his 2002 shareholder letter.
当然，之后几年他们又陆续加仓了。
They ended up purchasing more over the years, of course.
他提到，到2002年底，他认为Costco合理的估值应该在每股50美元以上。
He stated that he believed a reasonable valuation for Costco was north of $50 per share at the end of 2002.
他在信里说，Costco是我们分析过最理想的成长股，而且现在股价差不多是它价值的一半。
And in his letter, he stated, Costco is as perfect a growth stock as we have analyzed and is available in the stock market at close to half price.
2004年，Costco的市盈率是24倍，而现在的市盈率大概在35到36倍之间。
In 2004, Costco was trading at a earnings multiple of 24, while the PE ratio today is around 35, 36.
所以今天的估值倍数比当年高出了一半。
So we have a 50% higher multiple today.
如果要我猜原因，一部分是因为市场认可了好市多出色的商业模式，另一部分则可能是如今整体市场的估值比2004年高多了。
If I had to guess why, part of it is likely due to the market's appreciation of the quality of the business Costco has, And the other part is probably because the overall market is just priced higher today than in 2004.
现在知道好市多的人，比当年可多太多了。
A lot more people know about Costco now than they did then too.
他还解释了，为什么好市多这么难被超越，因为它实在太为顾客着想了。
So he also explained how Costco is so difficult to compete with because they're just so giving to the customers.
华尔街通常劝企业把钱还给股东，比如通过股票回购或者分红。
Wall Street oftentimes urges companies to give back to the shareholders rather than the customers through things like share repurchases, through dividends.
这恰恰是大多数股东，包括华尔街，都想要的。
This is exactly what most shareholders want, including Wall Street.
但好市多却把相当一部分利润实实在在地让给了顾客。
But Costco gives a lot of their earnings potential actually to their customers.
而这样做，反而让企业变得更强大，更能长久持续下去。
And this in turn leads to a stronger business that is more likely to sustain far, far into the future.
这真是个着眼于长远发展的企业，完全契合睡眠先生投资伟大企业的理念。
It's truly a business that focuses on the long term success, which aligns right with Sleep's investment philosophy when purchasing a great business.
咱们先歇一会儿，听一下今天的赞助商广告。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
作为投资者，我觉得有一件事经常被忽略，那就是持续提升自己的研究能力有多难。
One part of being an investor that I don't think gets enough attention is how hard it can be to continue to improve as an investment researcher.
我自己经常遇到这种情况：跟行业专家或基金经理聊完一场特别棒的对话后，脑子里全是想法。
And for myself, I often find that when I finish a great conversation with some industry expert or fund manager, my head is full of ideas.
但等我坐下来整理的时候，一半的内容已经记不清了。
But by the time I sit down to write it all up, half of them are already gone.
所以我一直在用 PlodNote Pro。
That's why I've been using PlodNote Pro.
这是一款小设备，贴在手机背面，能自动记录对话，然后给我一份清晰可搜索的总结。
It's a small device that sticks to the back of my phone and captures the conversation and hands me back a clean searchable recap.
关键点、后续问题、那些我本来想跟进的事情，它全都帮我整理好了。
And so the key points, the follow ups, the things I usually want to act on, it has all of that.
这样我就不用忙着记笔记，反而能专心投入对话，不用担心以后看不懂自己写的字。
And that allows me to stay present in the room instead of scribbling notes that I won't be able to read back later.
我的字迹向来很难看。
And I notoriously have very bad handwriting.
这彻底改变了我准备和跟进投资者的方式。
And so it's changed how I prep and how I follow-up with investors.
它也是为那些认真对待对话的人设计的。
It's also built for people who take conversations seriously.
企业级的安全保障。
Enterprise grade security.
如果你经常录制与客户或行业人士的通话，这一点也完全覆盖了。
So if you're recording calls with clients or industry contacts, that's covered too.
如果你整天泡在会议、电话和访谈里，那真值得试试。
So if you live in meetings, calls, and interviews, we'll give it a look.
访问 plod.ai/wsb，使用代码 WSB 可享九折优惠。
Go to plod.ai/wsb and use code w s b for 10% off.
网址是 plod.ai/WSB，优惠码也是 WSB。
That's plod.ai slash WSB, code WSB.
在录音之前，一定要先征得对方同意。
And always get consent before you record a conversation.
有人说，你每天推迟一步拥抱AI，就会落后两天，而竞争对手却在加速前进。
They say every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind, and the competition, they're only moving faster.
幸运的是，接下来要介绍的是NetSuite。
Fortunately, there's NetSuite next.
你可能已经听说过NetSuite，这是一套基于AI的商业管理系统，能安全地把你的所有数据、财务、库存、电商、人力和客户关系整合在一个可信的统一平台上，已有四万三千多家企业信赖它。
You probably already know NetSuite, the AI powered business suite that securely connects all your data, financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM all in one source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.
NetSuite Next是一次巨大的飞跃，因为现在AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。
NetSuite Next is the next huge leap because now AI is built into everything you do.
它会在你全天的工作中自动提供个性化的洞察，AI助手还会帮你处理那些琐碎的日常事务。
It surfaces custom insights throughout your day, AI agents work alongside you on the routine stuff.
无论你有任何问题，只要像跟同事聊天一样问出来就行。
And anytime you've got a question about anything, you just ask like you're talking to a colleague.
我自己一直在用，真心推荐你也试试。
And I use it and really I think you should too.
这是史上第一次，你可以免费试用 NetSuite Next。
For the first time ever, you can try NetSuite Next for free.
如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，就去 netsuite.aitip 看看吧。
If your revenue is at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.aitip.
适用于各个行业，随时准备应对董事会需求，netsuite.aitip。
Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom, netsuite.aitip.
对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步吗？
Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?
你不是一个人，Plus 500 是个不错的起点。
You're not alone, and plus 500 futures is a great place to start.
期货市场变化很快，有了 Plus 500，你可以轻松了解原油、黄金、标普 500、比特币等热门资产。
The futures markets are moving fast and with plus 500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
从加密货币到大宗商品，总有一些动态在发生。
From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.
这个平台操作非常简单，你随时可以用手机进行交易。
The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.
只需100美元就能开始，立刻参与交易。
You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.
看到感兴趣的东西了吗？
See something interesting?
账户开通后，几下点击就能开始交易。
Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.
如果还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。
And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.
零风险，无压力。
No risk, no pressure.
凭借二十年的经验，Plus 500让交易变得前所未有的简单。
With twenty years of experience, Plus 500 makes trading more accessible than ever.
立即访问 plus500.com 了解更多。
Check it out at plus500.com.
期货交易存在亏损风险，并非适合所有投资者。
Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
并非所有申请人都能通过审核。
Not all applicants will qualify.
Plus 500，交易就该多点优势。
Plus 500, it's trading with a plus.
好了，我们继续回节目。
All right, back to the show.
克莱·斯利普·芬克经常采访公司管理层，他发现这些管理层始终坚持一个原则：产品加价绝不超过百分之十五。
Clay Sleep Finck oftentimes would interview management of a company and he just saw that the management team was so serious about never marking up their products more than 15%.
虽然有时候他们能以极低的价格拿到某些产品，赚上一笔，但管理层的态度很明确：不，我们要把节省下来的成本让利给顾客。
There might be a time where they can make a killing on some specific products they get at a huge discount, but management was like, No, we're going to pass on these savings to the customers.
他们一遍又一遍地坚持这么做，这个模式确实行之有效。
Just did it over and over and over, and the model has definitely worked.
斯利普曾写过一个观点，讲的是企业质量和护城河。
One idea that Sleep wrote about was related to business quality and moats.
如果你打算长期持有一家公司，那它的护城河是否坚固就至关重要。
If you're holding a business for the long term, it is extremely important that the company has a strong moat.
真正难的地方在于评估一家公司的护城河有多强，因为这并不是能在资产负债表或利润表上直接看到的一个数字。
The difficulty really lies in assessing the strength of a company's moat because it's not necessarily a number you can just point to on a balance sheet or on an income statement.
它更像是一种主观判断，得靠观察者自己去体会。
It's more of a qualitative metric that's up to the eye of the beholder.
Sleep 提到过一个叫‘韧性比率’的概念，用来分析一家公司为顾客节省了多少钱，相对于它自己赚了多少钱。
Sleep talked about the idea of the robustness ratio, which analyzes how much a company saves their customers relative to how much money the company actually makes.
理论上，如果一家公司帮顾客省了大笔钱，但自己赚得很少，那它就很难被颠覆——至少比那些利润很高、却没帮顾客省多少钱的公司更难被取代。
In theory, a business that saves customers a ton of money and makes very little money relative to how much they save their customers, that'll be very hard to disrupt, at least relative to a business that has high profits relative to what they save their customers.
这个概念特别适合解释好市多，因为他们的商业模式本身就让竞争者望而却步，毕竟要达到好市多的规模和收益，需要投入巨额资金。
This concept definitely applies to Costco because with the way their business is set up, it actually discourages competition because of how much investment it would take to make the same amount of money that Costco does.
再加上，你还要面对好市多已经为顾客建立起来的强大品牌。
On top of that, you're already competing with a really strong brand that Costco has built for their customers.
Sleep 估算过，好市多每赚一美元利润，顾客就省了五美元。其实，这个‘韧性比率’的灵感，是来自巴菲特当年分析GEICO时的想法。
Sleep estimated that for every $1 in profit Costco made, customers were saving $5 Now, actually came up with this idea of the robustness ratio from Warren Buffett when he described GEICO.
巴菲特在2005年的致股东信里提到，GEICO每年为顾客节省了大约十亿美元，同时自己也赚了十亿美元的税前利润。
Buffett stated in his 2005 annual letter that GEICO was saving their customers roughly $1,000,000,000 and earning $1,000,000,000 in pretax profits as well.
在巴菲特看来，GEICO之所以有护城河，是因为它给客户带来的成本节约远远超过了它赚到的利润。
So in Buffett's eyes, it was clear that GEICO had a moat because of the enormous cost savings they passed down to their customers relative to the profit they received.
Sleep把这个想法用到了Costco身上，认为Costco同样拥有护城河，而且这个护城河的强度其实可以通过‘稳健性比率’这个单一指标来量化。
Sleep took that idea and applied it to Costco, claiming they had a moat as well and that the quality of the moat could actually be quantified through the robustness ratio, just using one metric to get an idea of how strong it was.
他明确指出，稳健性比率并不是衡量护城河的唯一标准，只是一个帮助你大致判断强度的参考指标。
He makes it clear that the robustness ratio isn't the end all be all of a moat, it's just one indicator to get a rough idea.
即使这个比率随着时间推移在下降，也不一定意味着护城河在变弱。
And even if the ratio is shrinking over time, it doesn't necessarily mean that the moat is weakening.
对于Costco来说，关键是在业务初期就给客户尽可能多的价值，这样客户才会主动帮你推荐新用户。
In Costco's case, you want to offer customers as much value as possible early on in the business cycle, so then you can continue to get those early referrals from customers.
等后期再考虑提高会员费，或者慢慢上调店内商品的价格。
And then maybe later on you can increase the price of the memberships or gradually increase the prices in the stores.
说到底，Costco真正唯一的竞争对手只有山姆会员店。
At the end of the day, Costco's only real competitor was Sam's Club.
这两家都在增长，但Costco的价格依然比山姆会员店有明显优势。
Both of these businesses were growing and Costco still offered really competitive prices relative to Sam's Club.
由于飞轮效应，好市多的竞争优势只会越来越强，随着利润不断再投入、新门店持续开设、会员模式吸引越来越多顾客，业务自然会稳步增长。
Because of the flywheel effect, Costco's competitive position was only going to strengthen and the business was destined to grow over time as profits were reinvested back into the business, many stores were opened and more customers were acquired under the membership model.
我觉得，所有优秀企业的根基都在于激励机制。
Another item I think that is at the root of all great businesses is incentives.
你可以想想，是什么样的激励推动了好市多的业务增长，进而带动了股价上涨？从我个人角度来说，因为我们每个人都是好市多的顾客。
You can think about what have been the incentives and what has led to the growth of Costco's business and in turn the growth of their stock price, let's look at me personally on an individual level because we know that individuals are the customers of Costco.
如果我知道好市多的产品质量高、价格又很有竞争力，我自然更愿意去那里购物，而不是其他地方，因为我清楚，买大包装的商品，好市多能帮我省下不少钱。
If I know that Costco provides relatively high quality products at very competitive prices, then I am incentivized to shop at Costco versus the many other places and options I have, because I know that Costco will actually save me money on the bulk items I want to buy or the bulk items I need.
你再看看好市多的供应商。
You can then look at Costco's suppliers.
那些规模最大、最优秀的企业都愿意把产品放进好市多的门店，因为每天都有数以百万计的顾客走进他们的大门。
The biggest and the best businesses are incentivized to offer their products in Costco stores because Costco has millions of people walking through their doors every single day.
你也可以看看管理层。
You can look at the executive team.
如果管理层长期持有大量好市多股票，那我们就知道，他们真正有动力去推动公司长期增长，提升股东价值。
If the executive team holds a lot of Costco stock and have done so for many years, then we know that they are actually incentivized to drive long term shareholder growth and the value of those shares.
一旦你发现这些激励机制开始失衡，在我看来，不良后果就会随之出现。
Once you start to see those incentives possibly get thrown off, that's when you start to see undesirable results in my opinion.
如果管理层放松了对低价的坚持，顾客可能会对好市多失去信任。
If management starts to give on their commitment to low prices, then that could cause customers to lose trust in Costco.
这会让顾客开始货比三家，寻找更划算的选择。
It might lead customers to want to shop around and try and find the best deal.
如果管理层的股票期权只鼓励他们追求本季度的业绩，而不是五年甚至十年后的长期表现，那他们的激励方向就完全变了。
If the management team has stock options that incentivize results for this quarter rather than the quarter five or ten years from now, then that really changes their incentive structure.
查理·芒格特别重视激励机制，我觉得这一点绝对值得强调。
So Charlie Munger is huge on incentives and I think it's something definitely worth mentioning.
接下来我想聊聊亚马逊。
Now I wanted to turn my attention to Amazon.
很多人对亚马逊的商业模式都很熟悉，所以我就不多说了。
Many people are familiar with Amazon's business model, so I'm not going to get too much into that.
尽管睡眠对很多高增长公司提出批评，但这并没有妨碍他看到亚马逊巨大的潜力。
And despite Sleep's criticism of many growth companies, this did not stop him from recognizing the tremendous potential in Amazon.
我觉得挺有意思的是，比尔·米勒和尼克·斯利普都持有亚马逊的股票。
And I find it interesting how Bill Miller and Nick Sleep both owned Amazon.
他们似乎是熟人，甚至朋友，彼此非常欣赏。
They seem to be acquaintances or friends and really admired each other.
我特别想知道，他们之间到底聊过多少次亚马逊，毕竟两人都是投资界的顶尖人物。
I'm really curious how much discussions they had in discussing Amazon because they're both two of the greats.
斯利普在好市多看到的模式，跟他对亚马逊的观察其实非常相似。
What Sleep was seeing in Costco was very similar to what he was seeing in Amazon as well.
当时很多投资者都被亚马逊持续投入业务的做法搞糊涂了，觉得这损害了股东利益，因为公司根本看不到盈利。
Many other investors were caught up in Amazon's reinvestment back into the business, which at the time seemed to hurt shareholders as they didn't report any bottom line earnings.
但斯利普明白，亚马逊根本不是在为本季度的业绩做优化。
But Sleep saw that Amazon wasn't optimizing for the current quarter.
他们真正关注的是长期股东价值和企业的可持续发展。
They were really optimizing for the long term shareholder value and the sustainability of the business.
亚马逊其实也像好市多一样，推出了会员制服务——亚马逊Prime，把客户牢牢锁定在自己的生态里，进一步鼓励他们持续消费。
Amazon actually also had a membership fee similar to Costco with Amazon Prime, and that captured customers into their network and further incentivized customers to shop with them.
华尔街又盼着公司赶紧赚钱，但贝佐斯却耐心地把钱重新投入公司，为未来增长打基础——那种增长，华尔街根本想象不到，简直不可思议。
So Wall Street again wanted to see the company produce profits today, but Bezos was patiently reinvesting back into the company and laying the groundwork for growth no one on Wall Street could comprehend, just mind blowing growth.
一旦亚马逊推出Prime会员服务，在尼克和扎克看来，这场游戏就结束了。
Once Amazon released Amazon Prime, in Nick and Zach's mind, it was game over.
他们每年收79美元会员费，提供两天送达服务，还附赠免费电影和电视剧等福利。
They charged an annual fee of $79 for two day shipping, as well as some other free perks such as free movies and TV shows.
短期内，这确实没让亚马逊的利润好看。
In the short run, this definitely did not help Amazon's bottom bottom line.
但从长远看，这为一场巨大的突破铺平了道路。
However, in the long run, it was setting the stage for something extraordinary.
睡眠说，他一眼就看懂了亚马逊在玩什么把戏，因为他在好市多早就见过这套玩法，而亚马逊只是把这招放大了无数倍。
Sleep said that he knew exactly what game that Amazon was playing because he had seen it in Costco and Amazon was just a supercharged version of that.
他们最早以每股30美元左右的价格买入亚马逊股票，还把基金20%的资产都投了进去。
They first started purchasing Amazon shares around $30 per share and they actually put 20% of the fund's assets into Amazon stock.
这一举动引发很大争议，有四分之一的合伙人选择撤资，担心基金押注一家公司风险太高。
This move was quite controversial as one fourth of the partners took their money out of Nomad as they feared that the fund was too concentrated into one company.
贝索斯早期给股东的信中写道：我们坚信，持续将效率提升和规模经济带来的好处以更低价格返还给客户，会形成一个良性循环，长期来看，这将带来更大的自由现金流，从而让亚马逊的价值大幅提升。
One of Bezos' early shareholder letters stated, Our judgment is that relentlessly returning efficiency improvements and scale economies to customers in the form of lower prices creates a virtuous cycle that over the long term leads to a much larger dollar amount of free cash flow and thereby a much more valuable amazon.com.
在他们研究过的所有商业模式中，规模经济共享模式在斯利普看来是最优的选择。
Out of all the business models out there that they had studied, the scale economy shared model was in Sleep's mind the best that they could find.
他们从1970年代沃尔玛的报告中研究过这种模式，后来将其应用到好市多、亚马逊、戴尔、西南航空和特易购身上。
They studied this business model from Walmart's reports back in the 1970s, and now they applied it to Costco, Amazon, Dell, Southwest Airlines and Tesco.
我特别喜欢斯利普在2006年致股东信里提到的一句话。
I just loved one of the statements that Sleep made when discussing Amazon in his 2006 shareholder letter.
他说：交易员们有无数个小点子，而我们只有一个大主意。
He said that, Traders have many small ideas and we have one big idea.
祝他们好运。
Good luck to them.
在巨无霸面前捡硬币，根本不是我们的做事方式。
Picking up pennies in front of a juggernaut is just not how we behave.
他还觉得，贝索斯要是去管投资基金，一定能管得很好，因为好的投资和好的商业决策本质上是一回事。
Also thinks that he thinks Bezos would actually run a good investment fund as good investing and good business decisions are synonymous.
贝索斯无法掌控再投资回报的时间点。
Bezos does not control the timing of the payback of the reinvestment back into the business.
就像睡眠先生无法掌控诺曼德的表现一样，但亚马逊护城河持续扩大，才是决定他投资成败的关键。
Just as Sleep doesn't control the timing of Nomad's performance, but the ever widening of the moat surrounding Amazon largely determines whether his investment will be a success.
他唯一要做的，就是有足够的耐心等待。
He just had to have the patience to wait.
一些投资者常犯的一个大错是，找到了一家成功的公司，却过早卖掉了它。
One big mistake that some investors make is finding a winning company, but end up selling that company too early.
尼克和扎克在亚马逊这件事上没犯这个错误。
Nick and Zach did not make this mistake with Amazon.
当时他们很清楚这种错误，因为他们知道不少人曾在沃尔玛或微软刚起步时就卖掉了股票。
At the time, they knew full well of this mistake as they knew of others who had sold out of Walmart or Microsoft early on in the company's growth timeline.
正如他所说，从数学上看，这种错误造成的损失，远超过投资一家破产公司所亏的钱。
As he said, Mathematically, this error is far greater than the equivalent sum invested in a firm that goes bankrupt.
不过，很多投资者最终还是卖掉了手里的赢家股，这其实不难理解，因为研究显示，大多数高增长公司最终都会停止增长。
However, there is good reason that many investors eventually do sell their winners because research shows that most growth companies eventually stop growing.
所以亚马逊、微软、沃尔玛这些在数据中几乎是特例。
So Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart, these are almost the outliers in the data.
一旦一家成长型公司停止增长，股价最终就会因此下跌。
When a growth company does stop growing, the stock price eventually does take a hit because of that.
市场早就考虑到大多数公司最终都会失败，所以普遍压低了所有股票的价格。
So the market takes into account the fact that most companies do end up eventually failing by discounting all stocks.
但这同时也压低了那些不会失败、持续成长的公司的股价。
What this actually does is discount the companies that don't fail as well, or just continue to grow.
这给像尼克·斯利普这样的投资者带来了巨大优势，因为他能看到99%的投资者看不到的东西。
This gives investors like Nick Sleep a huge advantage because he's able to see what 99% of other investors aren't seeing.
他能早早识别出那1%的公司，看清它们未来的发展方向。
He's seeing that one percent type company that sees where the company is heading very early on.
他是少数几个能在早期以极低价格拿到股份的人之一。
And he's one of the few that's able to get ahold of shares early at an extreme discount.
他也是少数几个愿意从一开始就持有，直到几乎无限远的未来的人。
And he's one of the few that's willing to hold on from the very beginning into the practically indefinite future in Sleep's mind.
由于Sleep的投资组合非常集中，他愿意投入更多精力，确保在发现优质公司时，能进一步深入研究财务数据和管理层，亲自访谈高管，验证自己对企业的判断是否准确。
And since Sleep is an investor that is pretty concentrated, he's willing to do that extra additional work required to ensure when he finds those quality companies, he's able to take that extra step and dig deeper into the financials and the management and interviewing the management to ensure he is correct in what he's seeing in the business.
而大多数基金经理则分散投资、过度多元化，根本做不到这种深度调研。
Whereas most managers are really spread out and diversified and they're not able to do the same level of research.
说到卖出表现好的股票，主动型基金经理总喜欢让人觉得他们一直在积极操作，好像这就是他们的本职工作。
Related to selling your winners, active managers like to make it look like they're simply being active or they're just doing their job.
一旦主动型基金经理卖出某家公司，人们就会自然而然认为他们做出了明智的决定，毕竟他们采取了行动。
When an active manager sells a company, people will just assume that they're making a wise decision because they're taking some action.
既然他们动了手，那肯定经过了深思熟虑。
To take that action, they must have put a lot of thought into it.
但大多数人没意识到，什么都不做其实也是一种决定，而且往往根本不需要任何行动。
While most people don't realize that not doing anything is also a decision, it doesn't necessarily require any action at all.
查理·芒格曾说过，他把不作为看作一种智慧，真正赚钱的方式其实是耐心持有投资。
Charlie Munger has been quoted saying that he sees inactivity as a form of intelligence and that the real money is made by sitting on your investments.
Sleep还注意到一个有趣的共同点：他持有的这些公司都非常非主流，几乎从不打广告。
Another interesting connection that Sleep recognized in his holdings is that they were very unconventional and they did not do much advertising at all.
他提到，亚马逊和好市多根本不做广告。
He stated that Amazon and Costco did zero advertising.
诺曼的投资虽然集中在上市公司，但这些公司的管理层却像经营私人企业一样思考和行事，这在当今的商业世界里非常不寻常。
Nomad's investments may have been in publicly listed firms, but these firms are also overwhelmingly run by managers who think and behave as if they were private firms, which really is quite unconventional in today's modern world.
早在2009年，杰夫·贝佐斯就曾说过，广告其实是你产品或服务不够出色所付出的代价。
Back in 2009, Jeff Bezos went on to even say that advertising is the price you pay for having an unremarkable product or service.
这话真挺有意思的。
Quite an interesting quote there.
在《连线》杂志的一次采访中，贝佐斯还提到，打造一家成功企业有两种方式。
In a Wired magazine interview, Bezos also stated that there are two ways to build a successful company.
一种是拼命说服顾客接受高利润，比如耐克或者可口可乐这样的公司。
One is to work very, very hard to convince customers to pay high margins, a company like Nike or Coca Cola.
另一种是拼命做到让顾客能以低利润买到东西，像沃尔玛、好市多、亚马逊、ASOS，这两种模式都行得通。
The other way to build a successful business is to work very, very hard to be able to offer customers low margins, companies like Walmart, Costco, Amazon, ASOS, they both work.
贝佐斯说，亚马逊毫无疑问属于第二种，这点我们都清楚。
Bezos said that Amazon is firmly in the second camp, as we all know.
这很难。
It's difficult.
你得消除缺陷，做到高效，但这也是一种理念。
You have to eliminate defects and be very efficient, but it's also a point of view.
我们更愿意拥有庞大的客户群和低利润率，而不是小客户群和高利润率。
We'd rather have a large customer base and low margins than a small customer base and higher margins.
并不是说所有成功的企业都不该做广告。
Isn't to say that all successful businesses shouldn't advertise.
我只是想借此说明尼克·斯利普究竟是怎样的一个人。
I just think it's a statement to try and communicate who Nick Sleep really is.
如果你去谷歌或YouTube上搜他，根本找不到他接受过任何媒体采访或露过面。
Again, if you look him up on Google or YouTube, you aren't going to find a single time he has appeared in the media, been in an interview.
如今大多数人一有机会就抢着上镜头、拿话筒、出风头，这已经太常见了。
It's just so uncommon today where many people will take advantage of the opportunity to get behind a mic, get in front of a screen and be in the limelight.
他这个人，说到底，就体现在他的信件里。
But all there really is to him is what comes from his letters.
我们也会以此为基础，结合威廉·格林书中提到的内容。
We're going to work off of that, as well as what's in William Green's book as well, of course.
虽然我们不清楚Sleep如今个人投资组合里具体持有哪些股票，但幸运的是，我们能看到他名下一家慈善机构IGY Limited Investments的持仓。
Although we don't know exactly what Sleep owns in his personal portfolio today, Luckily, we can actually see the holdings in one of his charities called IGY Limited Investments.
这家慈善机构会提交13F报告，公开他们的持股情况。
This charity files a 13F and shows their holdings.
不出所料，到2022年第二季度末，这家机构只持有三只股票：37%的Costco，37%的亚马逊，还有25%的伯克希尔哈撒韦。
Not surprisingly, at the end of Q2 twenty twenty two, the charity only held three stocks, a 37% position in Costco, a 37% position in Amazon and a 25% position in Berkshire Hathaway.
所以，他慈善机构的持仓就是这三只股票。
So those are the three holdings in his charity.
威廉·格林在书里提到，他还买过第四家公司，叫ASOS。
In William Green's book, he stated that he also purchased a fourth company, which is ASOS.
这家公司很多听众可能没听说过，除非你之前研究过Nick Sleep。
Probably a company many of the listeners haven't heard of unless they've studied Nick Sleep before.
那我们来看看ASOS这家公司。
So let's turn our attention to ASOS.
这是一家叫ASOS的公司。
It's just a company spelled ASOS.
Sleep之所以投资ASOS，是因为他投资了亚马逊。
Now, reason that ASOS came about for sleep is because of his investment in Amazon.
亚马逊涨得太厉害了，占到了他净资产的70%。
It had done so incredibly well that Amazon became up to 70% of his net worth.
他觉得得把资金分散到其他标的上。
And he felt like he wanted to spread some of that out into other holdings.
2018年，亚马逊股价大幅上涨后，Sleep卖出了其中一半的仓位。
In 2018, Sleep sold half of his Amazon position after it had a sizable run up in price.
他告诉威廉·格林，过了一两年，就把这笔钱投进了ASOS。
He told William Green that he had invested that money into ASOS a year or two later.
Sleep在信里几次提到ASOS，说这家公司和亚马逊、好市多一样，有着相似的商业模式，而且他们的CEO虽然已经很富有，但依然对工作充满热情。
Sleep does mention ASOS in his letters a few times mentioning that they are a business with a shared economics model similar to Amazon and Costco, and that their CEO, despite becoming wealthy, is as excited as ever to work in the business.
接下来我们聊聊ASOS是做什么的。
Now let's talk about what ASOS does.
我来分析一下这家公司的业务，分享一下我的总体看法，因为斯利普在他的信里其实没怎么提过它。
I'm going to do some analysis of the business and give my general thoughts on it as Sleep hasn't talked all that much about it really in his letters.
根据ASOS的年度报告，他们是一家面向全球热爱时尚的20岁左右人群的在线时尚零售商。
According to ASOS' annual report, they are an online fashion retailer for fashion loving 20 around the world.
通过他们的营销应用和网站体验，ASOS的顾客可以选购9万多种商品，这些商品来自50多个全球和本地顶尖的第三方品牌，再加上他们自有的时尚潮流自有品牌。
Through their marketing app and web experience, ASOS customers can shop a curated of 90,000 products sourced from eight fifty plus of the best global and local third party brands alongside our mix of fashion led in house labels.
我试着在我们的TIP金融工具里查这只股票，结果搜不到，因为公司总部在英国伦敦，而且规模不算大。
I tried to look up this stock in our TIP finance tool and it actually doesn't show up as they are headquartered in The UK in London and they aren't a huge company.
所以我直接在晨星网上搜ASOS，发现它用的股票代码是ASOMF。
So if I just go search ASOS on Morningstar, the company shows up under ticker ASOMF.
今天是10月6日，我看它的市值大约是6.5亿美元。
I see that they have a market cap of around $650,000,000 of today, October 6.
这只股票的走势真是大起大落。
And the stock has just had a roller coaster ride as far as performance.
2018年股价刚过100美元，到2020年初跌到30美元，2021年初又反弹到77美元，现在却跌到了6.5美元，波动太大了，跟过去相比，目前的价位低得惊人。
In 2018, it was just over $100 per share, dropped all the way down to $30 in early twenty twenty, rose back to $77 in early twenty twenty one, and now it's all the way down to $6.50 So quite a roller coaster ride and quite low today compared to where it's been in the past.
这股票波动太厉害了。
Very volatile stock.
看到它跌到今天这个地步，我真的觉得挺不可思议的。
It's honestly pretty crazy to me to see how far it's dropped to today.
2020年3月疫情最低点的时候，股价大约是每股13英镑。
And the COVID low in March 2020 was roughly $13 per share.
现在股价甚至比2020年3月疫情低点还低了百分之五十。
Now the stock is even 50% below the COVID low in March 2020.
这挺有意思的。
So quite interesting.
虽然股价波动大，但他们的营收和毛利增长得相当不错。
Although the stock is very volatile, the growth in their revenues and gross profit have been great.
这些数据用的是英镑，不是美元。
Now these numbers are in British pounds rather than US dollars.
从2017年到2021年，营收从19亿英镑增长到39亿英镑，年均增长19%；毛利从9.58亿英镑涨到17.7亿英镑，年均增长17%。
From 2017 through 2021, revenue grew from 1,900,000,000 to 3,900,000,000 British pounds, a 19% annual growth rate and gross profit grew from $958,000,000 to 1,770,000,000 British pounds, a 17% growth rate in their gross profits.
这看起来和听起来都不错，但他们的净利润就不那么稳定了，毕竟这是一家利润率很低的公司。
This looks and sounds great, but their net income is where the company isn't nearly as consistent as they are a very low margin business.
2017年，可供普通股东分配的净利润是6400万英镑，2018年是8200万，2019年跌到2500万，2020年回升到1.13亿，2021年是1.28亿。
Their net income available to common shareholders was 64,000,000 in 2017, 82,000,000 in 2018, 25,000,000 in 2019, 113,000,000 in 2020 and 128,000,000 in 2021.
最近十二个月的净利润已经降到3300万，这大概就是最近股价大跌的原因。
The net income for the trailing twelve months is down to 33,000,000, which is probably why the stock has taken a beating as of late.
说实话，我挺惊讶市场会对这只股票打压得这么狠。
I'm actually quite surprised that the market has punished the stock this much.
对于ASOS这种低利润率的公司来说，净利润波动大其实很合理——因为哪怕利润率稍微变动一点，净利润的百分比变化都会被放大。
The volatility in the net income does make a lot of sense for a low margin business like ASOS, just because a small change in their net income margin leads to drastic changes in the net income on a percentage basis at least.
比如，如果利润率从2%涨到4%，其他条件不变，净利润就直接翻倍了。
For example, if their margin increases from 2% to 4%, well, that doubles the company's net income all else equal.
我当初想弄清楚股价为啥跌得这么惨，后来看到一篇彭博的报道，说八月份的销售额低于预期，增长率只有2%。
When I was trying to figure out why the stock was down so much, I did come across a Bloomberg article that August sales came in lower than expected and sales growth was only 2%.
报道还提到，英国正经历四十年来最严重的通胀，消费者已经开始减少在服装和其他非必需品上的开支。
The article also noted, shoppers are navigating the highest inflation in four decades in The UK and there are signs that they're cutting back on purchases of clothing and other non essential items.
疫情也让公司受益，因为更多人转向线上购物，但我认为线上购物这个长期趋势短期内不会停下。
The company also had a boost from COVID as more people were shopping online, but I don't see that secular trend to online shopping stopping anytime soon.
看到公司顺应了这些长期趋势，确实不错。
It's good to see the company is positioned in a way to work with those secular trends.
虽然最近因为通胀，增长不算理想，但看他们年报里的同比数据，表现其实还不错。
Although the recent growth hasn't been great because of inflation, the year over year performance I'm seeing in their annual report actually looks pretty good.
从宏观角度看，如果公司能持续增长并守住市场份额，我觉得它的股价现在其实挺便宜的。
From a high level, if the business is able to continue to grow and fend off competitors, it appears to me that it's actually trading at a pretty cheap price.
但这有个大前提，因为ASOS做的是服装零售，这个行业竞争太激烈了。
Now that is a huge if because ASOS is in the clothing and retail business, which is very competitive.
假如我们把他们的净利润调整到一亿英镑左右，换算成美元大约是1.13亿，再用保守的15倍市盈率来算，估值接近17亿美元，远高于现在6.5亿美元的市值。虽然这家公司还有很多不确定性，但如果你想找一个类似尼克·斯利普最近投资ASOS的标的，它确实值得研究。
If you just normalize their net income to something like 100,000,000 British pounds, convert that to USD, which is $113,000,000 And then if we just simply apply a conservative 15 times earnings multiple, that gives us a valuation of nearly $1,700,000,000 which is much higher than the market price today of $650,000,000 a number of unknowns with this company, but it seems like a company that's worth looking into if you'd like to clone Nick Sleep with his recent investment in ASOS.
这绝对不是投资建议，只是我个人的一些看法。
Definitely not investment advice, just giving my general thoughts.
我还注意到，公司最近聘任了一位新CEO。
I did also see that the company recently hired a new CEO.
市场也在慢慢消化这件事，琢磨着老CEO离职、新CEO上任，长远来看对这家公司到底是好是坏。
The market is sort of internalizing that as well and determining if the old CEO's resignation and end with the new one will be good for the company long term or not.
所以这也是另一个值得深入研究的方向。
So that is something else that is potentially worth looking into.
克莱，明白了。
Clay All right.
以上就是我关于尼克·斯利普投资智慧的第三十五期节目。
That concludes my episode thirty:fifty on the brilliance of Nick Sleep.
我一直觉得像尼克·斯利普这样，专注持有顶级企业长达数十年的投资方式特别有意思，也特别想听听大家有哪些公司符合这种特质。
Since I find how investors like Nick Sleep invest so fascinating, having this approach of owning the highest quality businesses for decades, I love to hear from the audience about companies they believe fit into this category.
2022年这一年，几乎所有眼下现金流不强的公司都遭到了重创。
2022 has been a year where just about any company that isn't producing much cash flows today are getting absolutely crushed.
这意味着，那些愿意深入挖掘的投资者，或许能发现一些未来潜力巨大的复利机器，而它们现在的价格远低于内在价值。
Meaning that investors who dig underneath the surface may be able to find the next great compounding machine trading at a price well below its intrinsic value.
如果你想到任何这样的公司，我真的很期待听到你的分享。
If you have any companies that come to mind, I would truly love to hear from you.
给我发邮件到 claytheinvestorspodcast dot com。
Shoot me an email at claytheinvestorspodcast dot com.
如果我发现哪家公司值得在节目中深入聊聊，未来或许可以做一期专门讲。
And maybe I can do an episode in the future if I find a company that is worth covering on the show.
邮箱还是 claytheinvestorspodcast dot com，你也可以在 Twitter 上找我，账号是 ClayFinc，C L A Y F I N C K。
Again, that's claytheinvestorspodcast dot com or feel free to reach out to me on Twitter ClayFinc, C L A Y F I N C K.
好的。
All right.
今天的内容就这些了。
That is all I have for today's episode.
希望你们喜欢这期节目，就像我用心制作和分享它一样。
I hope you guys enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed putting it together and sharing it.
如果觉得不错，麻烦分享给一位朋友，那就太感谢了。
If you did enjoy it, feel free to share it with just one friend, if you'd be so kind.
你们的转发真的能帮我们把节目传播得更远，让更多人免费听到这些内容。
It will really help us continue to spread the word of the show and grow it so we can continue to deliver this great content to you all for free.
好了，非常感谢收听，我们下周一再见。
With that, thank you so much for tuning in, and we'll see you again next Monday.
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Make sure to subscribe to Millennial Investing by The Investor's Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence.
如需查看节目笔记、文字稿或课程，请访问 theinvestorspodcast.com。
To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com.
本节目仅供娱乐参考。
This show is for entertainment purposes only.
在做出任何决定前，请咨询专业人士。
Before making any decision, consult a professional.
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This show is copyrighted by The Investor's Podcast Network.
未经书面许可，不得转播或重播。
Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.
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