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你正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
人生就像一场不断学习的游戏。
The game of life is the game of everlasting learning.
至少，如果你想赢，就是这样的。
At least it is if you want to win.
查理·芒格。
Charlie Munger.
这种终身学习的理念，也贯穿了我们在TIP所做的工作。
This concept of lifelong learning has carried over into the work we do here at TIP.
过去将近十年，我们一直在制作内容，最早从2014年开始每周推出一期，后来随着普雷斯顿和斯蒂格邀请威廉·格林、凯尔·格里夫，还有我加入《研究亿万富翁》的团队，内容也逐渐丰富起来。
For nearly the past ten years, we've been creating content originally starting with weekly episodes back in 2014 and transitioning to create more content as Preston and Stig brought on William Green, Kyle Grieve, and myself onboard at We Study Billionaires.
今天这期节目，我想向查理·芒格致敬，因为就在1月1日，我们刚刚走过他百岁诞辰的纪念日。
On today's episode, I wanted to share a tribute to Charlie Munger since we just crossed what would have been his one hundredth birthday on January 1.
我想把这期节目大致分成两个部分来聊。
I wanted to break this episode more generally into two different segments.
前半部分，我想分享我从查理·芒格那里学到的最有影响力的人生建议。
The first half will be life advice I found to be most impactful from Charlie Munger.
后半部分，我想更深入地聊聊他的投资理念。
In the second half, I wanted to talk more about his investment approach.
我觉得这两方面都特别有意思，也很重要，这期节目算是对他为价值投资领域所做贡献的一份致敬。
I think both areas are very interesting and important and this episode will serve as a tribute to his contributions to the value investing community.
我的联合主持人威廉·格林也在他的节目里做过一期，收录了多位嘉宾谈他们从芒格身上学到的东西。
My co host William Green also shared an episode with clips of many of his guests talking about their learnings from Munger.
威廉还分享了他本人与芒格交往中的点滴，比如他为写《更富、更智、更快乐》这本书采访芒格时的经历。
And then William also shared some insights in his own personal interactions with Munger, such as when he interviewed him for his book, Richer, Wiser, Happier.
那期节目是《更富、更智、更快乐》系列的第37期，在这个播客里就能听到，发布于去年12月10日。
That episode is number 37 on the Richer, Wiser, Happier show, which is on this feed and it was released back on December 10.
本期我会提到一些内容，比如投资和生活中简单的力量，如何通过逆向思考避免常见的愚蠢错误，芒格如何把人生中的挫折变成学习和成长的机会，以及理解激励机制有多么关键。
During this episode, some of the things I'm going to touch on include the power of simplicity in investing in life, inverting problems to minimize standard stupidities, how Munger used his setbacks in life as opportunities to learn and grow, the tremendous importance of understanding incentives.
另外，我从研究芒格的投资生涯中总结出的最重要心得，主要集中在投资优质企业上。
And then also my biggest takeaways from studying Munger's investing career, which largely focuses on investing in high quality businesses.
好了，接下来让我们聊聊查理·芒格。
With that, I bring you today's episode chatting about Charlie Munger.
您正在收听《投资者播客》。
You are listening to the Investors Podcast.
自2014年以来，我们一直研究金融市场，阅读那些对白手起家的亿万富翁影响最大的书籍。
Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most.
我们让你保持信息灵通，做好应对意外的准备。
We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected.
现在，为您带来主持人克莱·芬克。
Now for your host, Clay Finck.
好的。
All right.
查理·芒格被广泛认为是一位充满智慧、始终追求普世智慧的人。
So Charlie Munger is highly regarded as someone who is wise and constantly in the pursuit of worldly wisdom.
我想先从简单性这个话题说起。
I wanted to start out by touching on the subject of simplicity.
芒格说过，把一个简单的想法当真去对待。
Munger stated, Take a simple idea and take it seriously.
很多时候，投资者会被那些看似复杂，甚至很炫酷的东西吸引。
Oftentimes investors are attracted to what is seemingly complex or maybe even what's sexy.
比如暴富速成的期权策略、没人听过的冷门加密货币，或者新闻里热炒的新兴AI公司。
The get rich quick option strategy, the obscure cryptocurrency that nobody's ever heard of, or the hot new AI company that's trending in the news.
那些特别复杂的投资，通常很难稳定可靠地赚到钱。
Investments that are extraordinarily complex are typically really hard to make any money from in any reliable or dependable way.
芒格还说过，如果一件事太难，我们就换别的做。
Munger has stated, If something is too hard, we move on to something else.
还有什么比这更简单呢？
What could be simpler than that?
这并不是说所有投资都很容易，尤其是你自己选个股或者搭建投资组合的时候。
That's not to say that all investing is easy, especially if you're investing in individual stocks or constructing a portfolio of your own.
为了简化，我们可以把复杂的问题拆成更容易理解、更容易掌握的小块。
To simplify, we can break down a complex subject into pieces that are much more easier to digest and wrap our arms around.
问问自己什么才是真正生活中最重要的，可能会很有帮助。
It can be helpful to ask questions such as, what is truly most important to me in life?
什么能带来更大的满足感？
What will lead to more fulfillment?
我怎样才能成为一个更好的朋友或伴侣？
How can I be a better friend or partner?
到底是什么在驱动投资回报？
What is it that drives investment returns?
在我分析的这家公司里，最关键的一两件事是什么？
What are the two or three most important things that matters most in the business I'm analyzing?
这些问题能帮我们抓住问题的核心，用简单而优雅的方式去理解它。
These questions get to the essence of a problem in understanding the simple and elegant way that we can approach it.
彼得·贝弗林在《寻求智慧》一书中提到，芒格认为，专注于寻找容易做的决策和赌注，避开困难的事，剔除所有无关的干扰，投资者就能更好地做出选择——屏蔽掉愚蠢的东西，甩开不重要的事，让头脑不被杂念占据。
Peter Bevelin writes in his book Seeking Wisdom that by focusing on finding decisions and bets that are easy, avoiding what is hard, and stripping away anything that is extraneous, Munger believes that an investor can make better decisions by tuning out folly and swatting away unimportant things so your mind isn't cluttered with them.
芒格说，你才能更清楚地抓住那几件真正该做的事。
You're better able to pick up a few sensible things to do, said Munger.
专注能带来思想的简洁与清晰，在芒格看来，这会带来更积极的投资结果。
Focus enables both simplicity and clarity of thought, which in Munger's view leads to a more positive investing result.
在这个信息爆炸的世界里，能识别出真正重要、能产生重大影响的少数几件事，是非常有力的——无论是在人际关系、工作、投资，还是其他任何方面。
With so much noise in the world, it's really empowering to be able to recognize the few key things that really matter and really move the needle, whether that be in your relationships, your work, your investments, or really anything else.
什么才是真正关键、真正重要的事？这个问题能帮我们把复杂的世界变得简单明了。
What is it that really moves the needle and really matters is such a powerful question to help us simplify this complex world.
芒格说过，拥有常识，其实就是学会屏蔽愚蠢的行为，而不是去识别智慧。
Munger has stated, of having uncommon sense, I think, is being able to tune out folly as distinguished from recognizing wisdom.
你要学会把一大类事情直接推开，别让它们占满你的脑子。
You've got whole categories of things you just bat away so your brain isn't cluttered with them.
这样你才能更清楚地抓住那几件该做的事。
That way you're better able to pick up a few sensible things to do.
为了简化投资中最关键的部分，巴菲特曾说，只要你读懂了《聪明的投资者》第八章和第二十章，以及《通论》第十二章，就不用再读别的了，电视也可以关掉。
To simplify what is most important in investing, Warren Buffett has said, If you understand chapters eight and twenty of The Intelligent Investor and chapter 12 of The General Theory, you don't need to read anything else and you can turn off your TV.
他提到的第一章，讲的是‘市场先生’的情绪波动。
The first chapter he mentions here is the mood swings of Mr.
市场。
Market.
我们应当对股价波动保持一定的超然态度，更多关注企业的内在价值。
And we should become somewhat agnostic to the price quotes and focus more on the underlying value.
他提到的第二章讲的是，在我们确定了公司的内在价值——也就是资产未来现金流的折现值之后，只应在价格远低于内在价值时才买入，也就是要有足够的安全边际。
The second chapter he mentions explains that after we determine a company's intrinsic value or what the company is worth, which is the present value of the future cash flows that an asset produces, then we should only purchase with a large margin of safety, meaning that the price is significantly below the intrinsic value.
他提到的第三章则强调了保持长期视角的重要性，不要试图去预测短期走势，因为那些几乎无法准确预判。
And then the third chapter he mentioned discusses the importance of having a long term view and not trying to make short term forecasts, which seem to be relatively unpredictable.
我觉得，一旦我们对价格和价值有了清晰的认识，就可以靠耐心获得一种行为上的优势，超越大多数投资者。
I like to think that once we have a good idea of the price and the value, we can utilize patience to have a behavioral edge over most other investors.
这个话题我会在本集的后半部分再深入聊聊。
This is a topic I'll be talking more about in the latter half of this episode.
在我看来，只要能聪明地运用这三个基本理念，就能让你远远领先于绝大多数投资者。
These three basic concepts alone when applied intelligently can put you way ahead of so many other investors in my opinion.
大多数投资者都会被市场先生的情绪左右。
Most investors are swayed by Mr.
市场。
Market.
你可别被市场先生牵着鼻子走。
You don't want to become a slave to Mr.
市场。
Market.
大多数投资者从不认真思考一项资产的内在价值到底有多少。
Most investors don't spend time thinking carefully about what the intrinsic value of an asset is.
他们不明白，只有当价格远低于内在价值时，才应该出手买入。
They don't understand that you should purchase only when the price is trading well below the underlying value.
大多数投资者的思维都很短期。
And most investors think fairly short term.
他们只看下一个季度，而不是未来十年。
They're thinking one quarter out instead of one decade out.
他们为短期的快速收益兴奋不已，却忽略了更大的格局。
They get excited about quick short term gains while losing sense of the bigger picture.
说到简单，我们尽可能追求极致的简洁。
As it relates to simplicity, we want to seek simplicity to the maximum degree we can.
我们要专注于自己有能力应对、在能力圈范围内的问题，同时学会分辨哪些事不重要，别在这些地方浪费时间和精力。
We want to focus on problems that we're equipped to handle and are within our circle of competence and be able to recognize what is unimportant so you don't waste any time or energy in that area.
莫尼什·帕布拉伊说过，真正能带你抵达目标的，是那些简单却全力以赴的念头。
Mohnish Pabrai has said, The simple ideas with intensity of pursuit is what gets you to the promised land.
问题是，大多数人对简单的东西反而敬而远之。
The thing is that most people get turned off by simplicity.
他们觉得太单调，不相信投资成功能这么简单。
They think it's boring and that investing successfully just can't be that simple.
莫尼什·帕布拉伊在他的书《笃定的投资者》里写过：简洁是一个非常强大的理念。
Mohnish Pabrai writes in his book, The Dondo Investor, Simplicity is a very powerful concept.
亨利·梭罗早就明白这一点，他说：我们的生命被琐事消磨殆尽。
Henry Thoreau recognized this when he said, Our life is frittered away by detail.
简化，再简化。
Simplify, simplify.
爱因斯坦也深知简化的力量，这正是他取得物理学突破的关键。
Albert Einstein also recognized the power of simplicity and it was the key to his breakthroughs in physics.
对于爱因斯坦来说，简化就是智慧的最高境界。
For Einstein, simplicity was simply the highest level of intellect.
沃伦·巴菲特的投资风格，处处体现着简单。
Everything about Warren Buffett's investment style is simple.
真正能通过坚持简化取得成就的，是像爱因斯坦和巴菲特这样的思考者。
It is the thinkers like Einstein and Buffett who fixate on simplicity through triumph.
EEagles MC2 的精髓，就在于简单与优雅。
The genius behind EEagles MC2 is simplicity and elegance.
查理在化繁为简方面堪称大师。
Charlie was a master at simplifying.
巴菲特曾说，查理分析和评估任何交易的速度和准确度，无人能及。
Buffett had said that Charlie can analyze and evaluate any kind of deal faster and more accurately than any man alive.
芒格说过，我们对保持简单有着近乎执着的热爱。
Munger has said, We have a passion for keeping things simple.
如果一件事太难了，我们就换别的做。
If something is too hard, we move on to something else.
还有什么比这更简单的呢？
What could be more simple than that?
我们节目里经常提到的一个简单理念，就是充分利用复利的力量。
One simple idea that we talk about on the show quite often is to embrace the true power of compounding.
在《穷查理宝典》最新版中，沃伦·巴菲特写了序言，说查理一直身体力行他所倡导的理念。
In the newest version of Poor Charlie's Almanac, Warren Buffett wrote the forward and said the following, Charlie consistently practiced what he preached.
本杰明·富兰克林在遗嘱中设立了两个小型慈善基金，目的就是让人理解复利的神奇之处。
Ben Franklin in his will created two small philanthropic funds that were designed to teach the magic of compound interest.
早年，查理就认定，这个话题太重要了，不能靠什么千篇一律的项目来传授。
Early on, Charlie decided that this was a subject far too important to be taught through some post homogeneous project.
他选择以身作则，成为复利的活教材，杜绝一切挥霍浪费，以免削弱自己示范的力量。
Instead, he opted to become a living lesson in compounding, estuing frivolous expenditures that might sap the power of his example.
简单这个理念，也和避开那些常见的愚蠢行为紧密相关。
Idea of simplicity also ties into the idea of avoiding standard stupidities.
芒格曾说过，我觉得伯克希尔·哈撒韦之所以受欢迎，部分原因是我们看起来像是找到了什么窍门。
Munger has stated, quote, I think part of the popularity of Berkshire Hathaway is that we look like people who have found a trick.
这并不高明。
It's not brilliant.
只是避免犯傻而已。
It's just avoiding stupidity.
如果你像我们这样去理解，会更容易明白——那就是先搞清楚那些连聪明人也会掉进去的典型错误，然后调整你的思维模式和发展方式，别让自己踩进这些坑里。
You understand it better if you go at it the way we do, which is to identify the main stupidities that do bright people in and then organize your patterns for thinking and development so that you don't stumble into those stupidities.
这段话出自2010年的一次访谈。
Quote is from an interview from back in 2010.
他还说，学术界就是其中一个没能避开这些常见错误的地方。
And he says that academia is one place that has failed and fallen for some of these standard stupidities.
他提到的第一个就是有效市场假说。
The first of which he mentions is the efficient market hypothesis.
如果有效市场假说成立，那伯克希尔·哈撒韦根本不可能在公开市场上，以华盛顿邮报保守估值的五分之一价格买下它。
If the efficient market hypothesis were true, then Berkshire Hathaway would not have been able to buy the Washington Post on the open market for one fifth of what they conservatively believed it to be worth.
他在学术界认为第二个荒谬的理论是CAPM模型。
The second teaching in academia that he deems to be insane is CAPM models.
他指出，你根本不需要凭空捏造这些东西。
He states, You don't have to make this stuff up.
生活总会不断给你一些荒唐的实例，而这些恰恰能教会你重要的道理。
Life will constantly surprise you with these ridiculous examples which teach important lessons.
芒格当然推广了这种关于投资公司和更广泛地理解世界的思维模型的理念。
Munger has of course popularized this idea of mental models on investing in companies and interacting with the world more broadly.
约翰·缪尔有句话说：‘当我们试图单独挑出任何事物时，会发现它与宇宙中的一切都紧密相连。’
There's this quote from John Muir, When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe.
芒格在自己的人生中也发现了同样的道理。
And that is what Munger has discovered in his life as well.
他必须理解各个学科的知识，才能看懂企业内部各种运作机制。
It's that he needs to understand all of these various disciplines in order to understand all of the inner workings that are at play within a business.
然后你还要考虑企业内部的各种动态，以及企业与其所处环境和竞争格局之间的相互作用。
And then you have everything that's going on in the business and then how the business itself interplays with the environment it's in and its competitive landscape.
正如《穷查理宝典》中所写，查理的思维模型为他提供了分析框架，帮助他把复杂投资问题中固有的混乱和模糊，梳理成清晰的基本要素。
As written in Poor Charlie's Almanac, Charlie's models supply the analytical structure that enables him to reduce the inherent chaos and confusion of a complex investment problem into a clarified set of fundamentals.
说到底，还是那个简单的道理。
Again, it gets back to that idea of simplicity.
这个世界充满杂乱，我们必须学会过滤噪音，才能找出真正驱动问题的核心因素。
The world is full of this chaos and we need to be able to sift through the noise in order to figure out the primary drivers of the issues at play.
我再引用书里的一句话：正是这种独特的思维方式，加上查理过人的智慧、沉稳的性格，以及数十年的相关经验，才让他成为巴菲特极为推崇的商业模式识别大师。
I quote here again from the book, It is this signature approach backed by Charlie's formidable intellect, temperament, and decades of relevant experience that have made him the virtuoso of business pattern recognition so valued by Buffett.
就像国际象棋特级大师一样，他凭借逻辑、直觉和洞察力，判断出最有潜力的投资选择，同时却让人感觉这些洞见来得轻而易举，仿佛理所当然。
Like a chess grandmaster, through logic, instinct, and intuition, he determines the most promising investment moves all the while projecting the illusion that the insight came easily, even simply.
但别误会，这种简单是历经漫长探索之后才抵达的终点，而不是起点。
But make no mistake, this simplicity comes only at the end of a long journey towards understanding, not at the beginning.
他的清晰洞察是用一生换来的——持续研究人类行为模式、商业系统，以及众多其他科学领域。
His clarity is hard won, the product of a lifetime of studying the patterns of human behavior, business systems, and a myriad of other scientific disciplines.
我读到这里心想：我可真不想跟这位思想上的独行侠正面交锋。
I'm reading this and thinking, I sure know I wouldn't want to go head to head with this intellectual maverick.
芒格认为，成功的投资生涯关键就取决于那么几次决定。
Munger believes that a successful investment career comes down to just a handful of decisions.
他下很大的注，然后就长期持有不动。
He makes a very large bet and then he just sits on this for a very long time.
他把这种做法叫做‘坐着不动投资’。
He refers to this as sitting on your ass investing.
查理说，你付给经纪人的费用更少了。
Charlie says, You're paying less to brokers.
你听到的废话也更少了。
You're listening to less nonsense.
如果成功了，税务系统还会每年额外给你一到三个百分点的收益。
And if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two or three percentage points per annum.
查理还以善于逆向思考问题而闻名。
Charlie is also well known for inverting his problems.
我脑子里总回响着搭档威廉·格林的声音，因为他老说：逆向思考，永远要逆向思考。
I have my cohost William Green's voice in my head because I feel like he's said this so many times, invert, always invert.
如果你想在人生中得到某样东西，别光想着怎么得到它，先想想最糟糕的做法是什么。
If you want to get something in life, instead of figuring out how to get what it is you want, start by thinking about the worst thing you can do.
有人问他怎样才能过上成功的人生，芒格回答：别碰可卡因，别去追火车，别陷入年龄相关的麻烦。
When asked how to live a successful life, Munger stated, Don't do cocaine, don't race trains, and avoid the age situation.
在《穷查理宝典》这本书里提到，很多人会以为他这番看似轻率的回答只是开玩笑，而它确实很幽默。
In the book Poor Charlie's Almanac, it states, Many would dismiss his seemingly flippant answer as merely humorous, which it certainly was.
但事实上，这恰恰反映了他的两大核心理念：一是如何避开人生中的麻烦，二是如何在投资中避免犯错。
But in fact, it faithfully reflects both his general views on avoiding trouble in life and his particular method for avoiding missteps in investing.
通常，就像这个例子一样，查理在采取任何行动之前，首先会考虑该避开什么，也就是该做什么不为。
Often, as in this case, Charlie generally focuses first on what to avoid, that is on what not to do, before he considers the affirmative steps he will take in any given situation.
这让我想起查理一句著名的话：我只想知道我会死在哪儿，然后我永远不去那儿。
Then this also reminds me of one of Charlie's famous lines, All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there.
所以，别问‘我怎么才能赚钱？’
So instead of asking, How can I make money?
而是问自己：‘我怎么才会亏钱？’
Ask yourself, How can I lose money?
如果你专注于避免损失，收益自然会随之而来。
If you focus on preventing the downside, the upside will take care of itself.
别问这只股票将来能值多少钱。
Instead of asking, What is this stock going to be worth?
而是问自己，这只股票现在值多少钱。
Instead ask yourself, what is this stock worth?
只要你能找出一只价格便宜的股票，赚钱就容易多了。
If you can identify a cheap price for a stock, it's far easier to make any money in it.
别总问增长动力是什么，该问问可能出什么问题。
Instead of asking what the growth drivers are, ask yourself what can go wrong.
人们常常只盯着潜在的收益，却忽略了更该关注的潜在风险。
Too often people are focused on the potential upside when they should be more focused on the potential downside.
芒格经常说，他和巴菲特的成功，就在于比别人少犯了很多愚蠢的错误。
Munger also frequently stated that him and Warren's career was made by making a lot fewer stupid decisions than others.
就连那些最聪明的投资者，有时也会做出极其不理性的决定。
Even some of the smartest investors out there at times make deeply irrational decisions.
2023年我做了一期《我们研究亿万富翁》的访谈，嘉宾是约翰·詹宁斯。
One of my interviews in 2023 on We Study Billionaires, it was with John Jennings.
他讲过一个故事，说他一位在华尔街最聪明的朋友，曾在金融危机最低点时还在抛售股票。
And he told a story of how one of his smartest friends on Wall Street was selling stocks near the bottom of the great financial crisis.
他到处寻找安全资产，比如黄金。
He was going out and seeking safety in assets such as gold.
这位非常聪明的投资者，几乎百分之百确信股票根本不是该待的地方。
Now, this really smart investor, he truly believed with near 100% certainty that stocks were not the place to be.
当时整个市场已经下跌了超过百分之五十。
And the overall market at that time had declined by over 50%.
当然，这个人也许是对的，未来也可能如他所料发展，但这恰恰说明，世界上最聪明的人也会因为过度自信，被当下的情绪和局势牵着走，变得过于笃定。
Of course this guy might've been right and the future may have played out how he might've expected it to, but it points to how some of the smartest people on the planet can become so overconfident and become too sure of themselves and they really get caught up in the heat of the moment and what's happening at that specific time point.
查理说过，坐在那里想出比那些比你聪明得多的人更妙的点子，其实挺有意思的，因为你训练自己变得更客观、更跨学科。
Charlie has said, It's kind of fun to sit there and outthink people who are way smarter than you are because you've trained yourself to be more objective and more multidisciplinary.
而且，这么做能赚到的钱也多得多——这点我本人深有体会。
Furthermore, there is a lot more money in it as I can testify from my own personal experience.
我特别钦佩巴菲特和芒格的一点，就是他们无比慷慨。
What I also admired about Buffett and Munger is just their sheer generosity.
芒格说过，人这一生能做的最好的事，就是尽力帮助别人。
Munger has said the best thing a human being can do is to help another human being no more.
巴菲特和芒格都认为，过好一生的一部分，就是慷慨施予——不只是给钱，还包括付出时间和知识。
Buffett and Munger both believe that part of living a good life is being generous and giving to others, not just with your money, but with your time and your knowledge as well.
对他人产生积极影响，是获得更大幸福感和人生满足感的绝佳方式。
Making a positive impact on others is a really great way to derive more happiness and fulfillment out of life.
芒格深信善有善报。
Munger was a firm believer in good karma.
他曾说，你在哪里待人接物，日后都会以意想不到的方式回报你。
He stated, How you behave in one place will help you in surprising ways later.
这说明，持续无私地帮助他人，能带来巨大的回报。
This points to the tremendous benefits that can be gained from continuously giving to others with no expectation of getting anything back in return.
节目里有位嘉宾把这种行为称为‘善行存入 karma 银行’。
One guest here on the show referred to this as good acts contributing to the bank of karma.
每当我向价值投资圈里的人请教问题时，总是被他们主动伸出援手的慷慨程度深深打动。
I'm amazed when I've reached out with questions to people here in the value investing community and how often I get this outpouring of assistance from those I reach out to.
这个圈子里的人几乎都乐于付出，从不期待回报。
People in this community are almost always open to giving without any expectation of receiving.
这背后其实是有原因的。
And this is likely for a good reason.
我们先插播一段广告，听听今天的赞助商怎么说。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
想尝试线上交易，却一直没迈出第一步吗？
Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?
你不是一个人。
You're not alone.
Plus500期货是个不错的起点。
And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.
期货市场变化很快，有了Plus500，你可以轻松了解原油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。
The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
从加密货币到大宗商品，总有不少动态。
From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.
这个平台用起来特别简单，随时随地都能用手机交易。
The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.
只要100美元就能入门，马上参与交易。
You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.
看到感兴趣的东西了吗？
See something interesting?
账户开通后，点几下就能下单交易。
Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.
如果还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。
And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.
零风险，无压力。
No risk, no pressure.
Plus500拥有二十年经验，让交易变得前所未有的简单。
With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.
前往 +500.com 了解更多。
Check it out at +500.com.
交易和期货存在亏损风险，并非适合所有投资者。
Trading and futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
并非所有申请人都能通过审核。
Not all applicants will qualify.
Plus500，让交易更胜一筹。
Plus500, it's trading with a plus.
我每天都在研究全球顶尖企业的财务数据，很快就能看出一个明显的趋势。
Spending my days digging through the financials of the world's best businesses and one thing becomes obvious fast.
真正成功的公司，都是那些能清晰掌握自身运营状况的企业。
The companies that win are the ones that can actually see what's happening inside their own operation.
现在大家都说，你每天推迟采用AI，就会落后两天。
And these days, they say that every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.
竞争对手的步伐越来越快，但好在还有NetSuite Next。
The competition is only moving faster, but fortunately, there's Netsuite Next.
你可能已经听说过NetSuite，这个由AI驱动的商业管理平台，能安全地整合你所有的数据。
You probably already know Netsuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all your data.
它是一个统一的系统，把财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理全都集中到一个可信的数据源，已有四万三千多家企业信赖它。
It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.
NetSuite Next，是商业运作方式的又一次巨大飞跃。
Netsuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done.
因为现在，AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。
Because now AI is built into everything you do.
它针对多种行业做了专门优化，完全贴合你企业的实际运营方式。
It's customized for a wide range of industries, so it supports the way your business actually works.
无论你的公司年收入是几百万还是上亿，现在都该升级到NetSuite Next，让你的业务真正与AI结合。
Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, it's time for Netsuite Next, where your business meets AI.
说实话，如果我正在经营一家快速成长的企业，需要把财务和运营整合到一个平台上，我一定会选NetSuite。
And look, if I were running a growing company and needed to get my financials and operations onto one platform, Netsuite is exactly what I'd use.
史上第一次，你可以免费试用NetSuite Next。
For the first time ever, you can try Netsuite Next for free.
如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，就去 netsuite.ai/tip 看看。
If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.ai/tip.
适用于所有行业，随时准备应对董事会的需求。
Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom.
这就是 netsuite.aitip。
That's netsuite.aitip.
在商业领域，有什么东西的普及速度跟人工智能一样快？
What's the one thing in business that's spreading as fast as AI?
人工智能带来的风险。
AI risk.
你团队注册的每一个新工具，供应商开启的每一项AI功能，每一次新集成，都可能带来问题。
Every new tool your team signs up for, every vendor that turns on AI features, every new integration, each one is a chance for something to go wrong.
大多数安全方案根本跟不上人工智能这种飞速发展的节奏。
And most security programs just weren't built for AI's pace of growth.
这时候，Vanta 就派上用场了。
Enter Vanta.
Vanta 是目前使用最广泛的智能可信平台，已有超过一万六千家快速发展的企业，比如 Ramp、Cursor 和 Harvey，依靠它保持随时可审计的状态。
Vanta is the number one agentic trust platform used by over 16,000 fast moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey to stay audit ready.
现在，Vanta 还能帮像你这样的公司，在两次审计之间持续监控供应商、AI 工具以及整个环境中的潜在风险。
And now Vanta is helping companies like yours watch for the risks that show up between audits across your vendors, your AI tools, and your whole environment.
怎么做呢？
How?
Vanta 的代理程序就像一个 24 小时在线的 GRC 工程师，默默在后台发现问题、帮你起草解决方案，还能把供应商评估时间缩短最多一半。
The Vanta agent works like a twenty four seven GRC engineer in the background, finding issues, drafting fixes for you, and cutting vendor assessment time by up to 50%.
无论你是快速增长的初创公司，还是全球性大型企业，Vanta 都能帮你自动化安全与合规流程，建立并证明你的可信度。
Whether you're a fast growing startup or a global enterprise, Vanta is here to help you automate your security and compliance and earn and prove trust.
立即前往 vanta.com/tip 开始使用。
Get started today at vanta.com/tip.
就是 vanta.com/tip。
That's vanta.com/tip.
明白了。
All right.
我们继续回节目。
Back to the show.
克莱，我还想到芒格善于从错误中学习，不断适应瞬息万变的环境。
Clay I'm also reminded of Munger's ability to learn from his mistakes and continually adapt to the ever changing environment.
我们每个人一生中都会不可避免地遇到被考验的时刻，都会经历失败的阶段。
All of us are going to inevitably run into times in our life where we're going to be tested and we're going to hit that period of failure.
这里的智慧在于，你如何应对失败才真正重要。
The wisdom here is that it's how you react to that failure that matters.
你可以让失败击垮你，也可以把失败当作学习和成长的机会。
You can let failures bring you down or you can use these failures as an opportunity to learn and grow.
芒格认为，逆境会让一些人把自己变成受害者，正如他所说：当你觉得某个处境或某个人在毁掉你的生活时，实际上毁掉你生活的是你自己。
Munger believes that adversity causes some people to transform themselves into a victim as he states, Whenever you think that some situation or some person is ruining your life, it's actually you who's ruining your life.
这个道理其实很简单。
It's such a simple idea.
总觉得自己是受害者，是人生中最糟糕的活法。
Feeling like a victim is a perfectly disastrous way to go through life.
如果你能保持一种态度，不管情况有多糟，都认是自己的责任，然后尽最大努力去解决——这就是所谓的‘铁律’，我觉得真的特别管用。
If you just take the attitude that however bad it is in any way, it's always your fault and you just fix it as best you can, the so called iron prescription, I think that really works.
约书亚·肯南在他的博客里写过芒格的人生经历和他所经历的种种逆境，我也来读一读这段。
Joshua Kennan wrote in his blog about Munger's life experiences and the adversities Munger's went through that I'll read here as well.
这个故事一直深深印在我心里。
And this is just a story that's really stuck with me.
1953年，查理29岁，那年他和妻子离婚了。
In 1953, Charlie was 29 years old when he and his wife got divorced.
他从21岁就开始结婚了。
He had been married since he was 21.
离婚后，查理什么都没留下。
Charlie lost everything in the divorce.
妻子拿走了南帕萨迪纳的家，查理只好搬进大学俱乐部的破旧住所，开一辆破旧的黄色庞蒂亚克。
His wife keeping the family home in South Pasadena, Munger moved into dreadful conditions at the university club and drove a terrible yellow Pontiac.
离婚后不久，查理得知儿子泰迪得了白血病。
Shortly after the divorce, Charlie learned that his son Teddy had leukemia.
那时候根本没有医疗保险。
In those days, there was no health insurance.
所有开销都得自己掏腰包，医生也束手无策，死亡率接近百分之百。
You just paid everything out of pocket and the death rate was near one hundred percent since there was nothing doctors could do.
查理的朋友里克·古伦说，查理会去医院抱着年幼的儿子，然后在帕萨迪纳的街头痛哭。
Rick Gurren, Charlie's friend said Munger would go into the hospital, hold his young son, and then walk the streets of Pasadena crying.
1955年，也就是确诊一年后，泰迪·芒格去世了。
One year after the diagnosis in 1955, Teddy Munger died.
那时查理才31岁，离了婚，身无分文，还要送别自己九岁的儿子。
Charlie was 31 years old, divorced, broke, and burying his nine year old son.
后来他经历了一次极其痛苦的手术，导致一只眼睛失明，疼痛难忍，最后不得不把眼睛摘除。
Later in life, he faced a horrific operation that left him blind in one eye with pain so terrible that he eventually had his eye removed.
你现在的烦恼，跟这些比起来，简直不值一提。
It's a fair bet that your present troubles pale in comparison.
不管是什么事，都别纠结了。
Whatever it is, get over it.
重新开始。
Start over.
他做到了，你也可以。
He did it and you can do it too.
我觉得，想清楚生活中哪些事是我们能掌控的，哪些是掌控不了的，很有帮助。
I also find it helpful to think about what it is we can control in life and what we can't control.
人们往往太关注那些管不了的事，却忽略了能掌控的部分。
People tend to put too much focus on the latter and not enough on the former.
我认为，放下那些我们无法控制的事情，是我们能为自己做的最解脱的事之一。
I think that letting go of the things that we can't control is one of the most liberating things that we can do for ourselves.
把这个简单的道理用在投资上：我们控制不了美联储的决策，控制不了利率、股价、别人的行为、别人赚了多少钱，也控制不了会不会经济衰退，等等。
To apply this simple idea to investing, we can't control the Fed's actions, we can't control interest rates, stock prices, how other people act, how rich other people are getting, whether we enter a recession or not, etcetera.
但我们能控制自己买入公司或基金的价格，能选择合作的管理者，能挑选想投资的商业模式，能决定持有时间、承担的费用、分散投资的程度，等等。
We can control our entry price into companies or into funds, the managers we choose to partner with, the types of business models we choose to buy into, our holding period, the fees we incur, our level of diversification, etcetera.
专注在你能掌控的事上，别太纠结那些你控制不了的东西。
Focus on what you can control and don't worry so much one:fifty): about the things you can't.
接下来我们换个话题，我们的朋友亚当·米德，也是TIP的专家，专攻伯克希尔哈撒韦，他分享了一些上世纪90年代的《杰出投资者文摘》。
Transitioning here to another topic, Adam Mead, a friend of ours here at TIP and an expert on Berkshire Hathaway, he shared what are called outstanding investor digest, which are back from the 1990s.
我一定会在节目笔记里附上链接。
I'll be sure to link here in the show notes.
在1995年的那期里，芒格进一步阐述了如何运用思维模型成为更优秀的投资者。
In the 1995 edition, Munger expands on the use of mental models to become superior investor.
其中关于会计的那部分内容让我印象特别深。
And the piece on accounting here really stood out to me.
他说：当然，你必须懂会计。
He stated, Obviously you have to know accounting.
它是商业世界里的通用语言。
It's the language of practical business life.
会计对社会来说是个非常有用的发明，但你得明白它能做什么、不能做什么。
It was a very useful thing to deliver to civilization, but you have to know enough about it to understand its limitations.
因为会计虽然是起点，但只是个粗略的估算，其实并不难看出它的局限性。
Because although accounting is the starting place, it's only a crude approximation and it's not very hard to understand its limitations.
比如，谁都看得出来，像喷气式飞机这类东西的使用寿命，只能大概估算一下。
For example, everyone can see that you have to just more or less guess at the useful life of a jet airplane or anything like that.
就算折旧率写得整整齐齐，也不代表你真知道它实际能用多久。
Just because you express the depreciation rate in neat numbers doesn't make it anything you really know.
我觉得这点特别值得强调，因为对我而言，看懂会计的局限性，能帮我发现很多其他投资者容易忽略的好机会。
And I thought this was such an important point to highlight here because for me, understanding the shortcomings of accounting can really help you identify ripe opportunities that a lot of other investors are prone to overlook.
亚当·齐塞尔的《钱在哪儿》这本书，把这一点讲得特别透彻。
Adam Ziesel's book, Where the Money Is, does a really great job expanding on this.
我在这儿举几个例子。
I'll touch on some examples here.
芒格提到，折旧率在利润表上被列为一项支出。
Munger mentioned that the depreciation rate, which is shown as an expense line item on the income statement.
会计师可能会假设，企业用的设备使用寿命是五年。
Accountants might assume, for example, that the machinery that's used in a business has a five year life.
但实际上，这些设备通常能用上十五年甚至二十年。
But in reality, those machines might typically last something like fifteen or twenty years.
所以要想得出更贴近经济现实的盈利数字，你就得自己手动调整收益，反映企业真实的盈利状况。
So to get to an earnings figure that better reflects economic reality, then you're going to need to manually adjust the earnings yourself to better reflect the true earnings that are happening within the business.
另一个例子是我投资组合里的公司，Constellation Software。
Clay Another example is a holding of mine in my portfolio, Constellation Software.
很多投资者一看Constellation Software的市盈率高达90甚至100，就觉得这股票太贵了，根本不可能入手。
Many investors see Constellation Software and they see, Oh, it's trading at a PE of 90 or 100, and they think there's no way they'll ever buy a stock that expensive.
但市盈率根本没真实体现这家公司的价值，也脱离了经济现实。
But the PE doesn't do this company justice and it doesn't really reflect economic reality.
对于这家公司来说，会计上会计提摊销费用，因为他们假设企业收购的资产会随着时间贬值。
In the case of this business, there are amortization charges because accountants are assuming that these acquisitions that they're making are going to degrade over time.
但事实上，这些业务的自然增长率其实每年只有百分之几。
But in reality, these businesses have organic growth rates in the low single digits.
所以合理做法是把这些摊销费用加回去，这样能大幅降低估值倍数，之后再做其他调整就更准确了。
Thus, it's reasonable to add back those amortization charges, which really helps bring down the multiples significantly before some other adjustments are made as well.
另外说明一下，我确实持有Constellation Software的股票。
And full disclosure, I do own shares in Constellation Software.
还有一个关于市盈率的缺点我想提一下，它并不能告诉你维持一家公司运营需要多少资本。
One more shortcoming I wanted to mention with a PE is that it doesn't tell you the amount of capital that's required to maintain a business's operations.
像埃克森美孚这样的大宗商品企业，光看市盈率好像很便宜，但一旦扣除维持业务所需的资本支出，可能就没你想象的那么便宜了。
A commodity business like ExxonMobil might look really cheap when you just look at the PE, but when you take out the capital expenditures just for the maintenance of the business, then it might not look near as cheap as you think it is.
我们的大脑总会走捷径来做判断，这本身未必是坏事，但我们需要清楚，什么时候这些捷径管用，什么时候不管用。
Our brains take these shortcuts to come to conclusions, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but we need to be mindful of when these shortcuts are useful and when they aren't useful.
一家公司市盈率低，并不等于它就便宜。
Just because a company has a low PE doesn't make it cheap.
一家公司市盈率高，也不代表它就贵。
And just because a company has a high PE doesn't make it expensive.
芒格的这个观点对我影响深远，彻底改变了我看待投资的方式，这么多年一直在我心里不断深化。
So that point from Munger there has really had a big impact on me and how I think about investing and have continued to develop over the years.
我还想提一下芒格给我的另一个重要启示，关乎生活本身——那就是理解激励机制的重要性。
I also need to mention one of the key lessons that Munger that has had a really big impact on me in terms of life, and this is understanding the importance of incentives.
芒格认为，激励机制是驱动人类行为最强大的力量之一。
Munger regards incentives as one of the most powerful forces that drive human behavior.
理解激励机制的基本道理就是：你奖励什么，就会得到什么；你惩罚什么，就会避开什么。
The basic idea of understanding incentives is that you get what you reward for and avoid that for which you are punished.
芒格说过，如果激励机制设计得愚蠢，结果也一定会很蠢。
Munger has stated that if you get a dumb incentive system, then you get dumb outcomes.
高塔姆·贝伊关于激励和复利乐趣的章节，是我最喜欢的部分之一，因为他把这一点讲得实在太透彻了。
Gautam Bay's chapter on incentives and The Joys of Compounding is by far one of my favorites as he really nails home this point so, so well.
我想在这里引用书中几段话，来说明激励机制的重要性。
There's a few quotes from the book that I wanted to read here as it relates to incentives.
本杰明·富兰克林说过：如果你想说服别人，就要诉诸利益，而不是讲道理。
Benjamin Franklin stated, If you want to persuade, appeal to interest, not to reason.
杰西·利弗莫尔说：我从投资中学到的最重要一课是，自利是地球上最强大的力量，能让人拥护并捍卫几乎任何事。
And Jesse Livermore said, My main life lesson from investing is that self interest is the most powerful force on earth and can get people to embrace and defend almost anything.
利弗莫尔这个观点特别到位，激励机制真能让人做出一些非常离谱的行为。
It's a great point here from Livermore, incentives can really cause people to do some really bizarre things.
普通人一旦被给予不当的激励，也可能做出极其恶劣的事。
Decent people can do terrible things if they are given the incentives to do so.
就连品行恶劣的人，只要 incentives 对了，也能做出像样的决定。
And otherwise terrible people can make decent decisions if they're given the incentive to do so.
高塔姆写道：激励机制真正的力量，在于它能左右人的思维过程。
Gautam writes, The real power of incentives is the ability to manipulate the cognitive process.
巴菲特举了GEICO的例子，说他关心的是员工如何通过有效的政策推动业务增长，专注于盈利的业务领域。
Buffett shared the example of GEICO and how he cared about the employees growing the business through policies in force and growing through areas of the businesses that were profitable.
于是他们设计了一套奖金制度，来鼓励员工表现出这种行为。
So they put together a bonus structure that incentivized that behavior amongst their employees.
这样一来，股东的利益就和员工的利益保持了一致。
That way the interests of the owners are aligned with the interests of the employees.
纳西姆·塔勒布也有句话：别问别人的意见、预测或推荐。
Naseem Taleb also has a quote here, Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast or recommendation.
只问他们投资组合里有什么、没什么。
Just ask them what they have or don't have in their portfolio.
我跟大家一样清楚，我们在节目里聊过不少股票，也在TIP精英社群里讨论过各种个股。
And I'm as aware as anyone that we talk about different stocks on the show and I talk about stocks in our TIP Mastermind Community.
如果我持有这些公司，并且公开谈论它们，那我至少在某种程度上会对它们有偏见。
And I'm biased towards these companies, at least to some degree, if I own them and I'm public about them.
一旦我在节目中谈过这些公司，即使后续事实变了，我也更难改变自己的看法。
And it makes it even more difficult to change my mind if the facts change after I talk about them on the show.
我想说的是，你绝对不该因为别人买了某只股票，你就跟着买。
This is my way of saying that you shouldn't ever own something just because someone else owns it.
因为如果情况变了，那个人可能会悄悄卖出，而你根本不知道。
Because if the facts change, that person might sell that company without you even knowing.
我非常清楚，我持有的任何一家公司，下个季度、明年我都可能改变主意。
I'm fully aware that any of the companies I own, I might change my mind next quarter, next year.
如果基本面发生重大变化，我希望自己有足够的谦逊，能承认并正视这个问题，然后采取行动。
And if the fundamentals change materially enough, then hopefully I'm humble enough to admit it and recognize it and take action.
高塔姆还提到，我们必须深入思考自己设计的激励机制，因为忽视激励机制的第二层、第三层影响，往往会带来意想不到的后果，也就是所谓的‘佩尔茨曼效应’。
Gautam also writes here, It's imperative that we think deeply about the incentive systems we create because ignoring the second or third order effects of an incentive system often leads to unintended consequences, also known as the Peltzman effect.
安德森举了个例子：为了消灭老鼠、蛇等不受欢迎的动物，政府提供现金奖励。
Anderson writes, An example is monetary rewards offered to help exterminate unwanted animals such as rats and snakes.
当局没料到的是，人们竟然开始专门饲养老鼠和蛇。
What authorities failed to foresee was that people would start to breed the rats and snakes.
人类总是倾向于利用制度为自己谋利。
Human beings have a tendency to game systems for their benefit.
芒格也讲过联邦快递的故事，他们怎么都想不通，怎么才能让员工及时把行李从一架飞机转运到另一架，避免延误。
Munger has also told the story of FedEx and how they couldn't for the life of them figure out how to get employees to move this luggage from the airplanes between the airplanes without causing delays.
他们试了各种办法，始终解决不了，直到把员工的薪酬从按小时计薪改成按任务计酬。
And they tried everything and they really couldn't solve it until they switched the employee's pay from by the hour to by the job.
一旦任务完成，员工就可以下班，双方都达到了各自的目的。
So once the job was finished, they could just go home and both parties ended up getting what they wanted.
联邦快递通过这套新的激励机制，彻底消除了延误问题。
FedEx ended up eliminating the delays with this new incentive structure.
员工拿到了应得的报酬，而且经常能提前下班，因为活一干完就能走。
And then employees got their compensation and probably got to go home early a lot of times from work because they were finished when the job was done.
《投资者播客》的斯蒂格也非常重视激励机制。
Stig here at The Investor's Podcast is also really big on incentives as well.
今年早些时候，我们推出了TIP精英社群，这是一个付费社群，我们的听众可以加入。
Earlier this year, we had launched our TIP Mastermind Community, which is a paid community that our audience can be a part of.
在他看来，我们能在公司内部启动这个新业务板块，开辟新的收入来源，这非常好。
Well, in his mind, it's great that we can start this new business unit within the company and have a new source of revenue.
这个社群和广告收入没有直接关系，而我们目前主要靠广告来覆盖运营成本。
It's not directly tied to advertising, which we are pretty heavily reliant on to cover our expenses.
但这个社群绝不能干扰或拖累播客，因为《研究亿万富翁》才是我们在TIP所有工作的根基。
But the community, it can't intrude or come at a hindrance to the podcast because We Study Billionaires is really the foundation of everything we do here at TIP.
所以他一直在思考，什么样的激励机制才真正合适。
So in his mind, he's trying to figure out what sort of incentive structure really makes sense.
它能推动新业务的增长，同时又不会损害《投资者播客》的长期发展。
It incentivizes the growth of a new business unit without negatively impacting the long term viability of The Investor's Podcast overall.
我也会用同样的思路，去审视我投资的上市公司管理团队。
I also like to look at this in terms of the management teams of public companies I invest in.
斯蒂格和我刚刚在第596期节目中讨论过这个话题。
Stig and I just discussed this topic in episode five ninety six.
一般来说，投资那些自己也投入大量资金的管理者更靠谱。
Generally, it's better to invest with managers who have a lot of skin in the game.
他们之所以致富，是因为持有公司股份，而不是靠股票期权或跟股东利益无关的巨额奖金。
They became wealthy through the ownership of their shares rather than getting stock options or giant bonuses based on metrics that aren't really helpful to shareholders.
芒格提醒说，靠股票期权激励的管理者，并不一定和股东的利益一致。
Munger cautions that managers who are incentivized with stock options aren't necessarily aligned with shareholders.
因为他们能享受上涨的收益，却不用承担任何下跌的风险。
This is because they get the benefit of the upside, but they don't bear any of the downside risks.
这就像给管理者发了一张免费的彩票，可能会让他们冒比股东愿意承受更大的风险。
It's kind of like a free lottery ticket for the managers and it might lead them to taking on bigger risks than what you would prefer as shareholders.
而那些持有大量股票的管理者，跟股东一样能分享上涨的收益，但也得承受可能下跌的痛苦。
And then managers who own a lot of stock on the other hand, they benefit from the upside just like you do as shareholders, but they also have to handle the pain of the potential downside.
另一个关键点是，要考虑家族企业。
And then another key point here is thinking about family run companies.
家族企业通常有很高的内部持股比例。
Family run companies tend to have a lot of insider ownership.
由于家族是通过拥有企业积累财富的，他们往往眼光长远，行事保守。
And since the family has built their wealth through the ownership of the business, oftentimes they think really long term, they take conservative bets.
一旦遇到真正难得的机会，他们就会果断抓住。
Then when these really great opportunities come along, they tend to really take advantage of them.
芒格曾提到，一个非常负责任的制度，是古罗马人在建造船只时采用的方式。
Munger has said, An example of a really responsible system is the system the Romans used when they built an ark.
造船的人会在脚手架拆除时，站在船底下。
The guy who created the ark stood under it as the scaffolding was removed.
这就像是自己打包降落伞一样。
It's like packing your own parachute.
激励促使人们做出积极的行为，而不利的后果则能阻止不良行为。
Incentives encourage desirable behavior and disincentives prevent them.
就我个人而言，我希望投资那些能持有十年、甚至更久的公司。
Now personally, I want to own companies I can sit on for ten years, maybe more.
我希望管理层能全力以赴，为股东创造丰厚回报。那些自己在公开市场买入股票、长期持股、并且有良好股东友好记录的管理者，我认为他们自然有动力继续坚持下去。
And I want to know that the management team is going to do their best to deliver a handsome return and managers who purchase stock themselves on the open market and hopefully have a track record of being shareholders for a long time, track record of being shareholder friendly, I think they're incentivized to continue to do what they've been doing for so long.
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另外，如果你要选一个基金来投资，还得考虑怎么挑选投资经理。
And then there's also the issue of choosing an investment manager, if you're picking a fund to invest in.
塞思·克拉曼在他的书《安全边际》里说过，你大概不会去一家厨师自己从不吃饭的餐厅用餐。
Seth Klarman said in his book, Margin of Safety, You probably would not choose to dine at a restaurant whose chef always ate elsewhere.
同样的道理，你也不该对一个自己不投资的理财经理感到满意。
You should be no more satisfied with a money manager who does not eat his own cooking.
理想情况下，你会选择一个把绝大部分身家都投在自己管理的基金里的经理。
In the best case scenario, you're going to be invested with a manager that has the vast majority of their net worth invested in the fund that they manage.
这样你就能确信，他们一定会着眼长远，不会冒不必要的风险，做决策时也会格外谨慎。
That way you know that they're always going to be thinking long term, not taking excess risk, and they're being extra thoughtful in their decision making.
很多财务顾问往往被激励去推销那些其实对客户没好处的产品，但只要佣金丰厚，而且能连续拿十年、二十年，推销起来就很容易找到借口。
Oftentimes financial advisors, they're going to be incentivized to sell products that really aren't good for their clients, but it's pretty easy to justify selling something like that when you earn a hefty commission that pays out for the next ten or twenty years.
接下来换个话题，查理也让我想到什么是过好一生。
Transitioning here to another topic, Charlie also reminds me of what it means to live a good life.
查理的生活，在很大程度上是非常简朴的。
Charlie's life was very simple to a large extent.
他按照自己真正想过的那种方式，打造了自己的生活。
He built his life in a way that suits him and suits the way he really wanted to live.
他身边围绕的，都是他真心敬重的人。
He surrounded himself with people he regarded as great people.
这些人通过日常的相处，让他每天都变得更好。
These people made him better every day, better through their interactions.
尽管查理聪明绝顶，他还是选择和沃伦·巴菲特合作，明知自己不会像沃伦那样长期站在台前当主角。
Even as smart as Charlie was, he chose to partner with Warren Buffett, knowing that he was probably not going to be the head honcho or be the front of the spotlight like Warren was for decades.
说到合作，芒格就是最好的证明：和靠谱、正直的人建立高质量的关系，能让人生变得格外珍贵。
Regarding partnerships, Munger is a testament to the idea that quality relationships with good, trustworthy people make life really special.
他说，如果你想拥有一个好伴侣、好朋友或好配偶，那你首先得成为这样的人。
He stated that if you want to have a good partner, friend, or spouse, then you need to be one in return.
芒格一直非常重视，和那些你敬佩、值得信赖的正直之人相伴一生。
Munger has always put a high priority on surrounding yourself with honorable people you admire and you want to spend your life with.
我觉得，人生中最值得做的提升之一，就是让自己身边都是真正优秀的人。
I think one of the best upgrades you can make in your life is to surround yourself with people who are seemingly really high quality.
查理认为，人生远不止是积累巨额财富，你不该太在意别人在做什么，别为了发财去用那些你认为不道德、或违背你价值观的方式。
Charlie believes that life is much more than just accumulating vast amounts of wealth and that you shouldn't worry so much about what other people are doing, getting rich through methods that you don't deem to be ethical or just something that doesn't align with your values.
他本人也过着相当保守的财务生活，量入为出，不买那些奢华的东西，尽量避免负债，同时不断寻找增加收入的方法。
He was also big on living out a pretty conservative financial lifestyle, living within your means, not buying extraordinary things, avoiding debt the best you can, and then continue to seek out ways to increase your income.
都是些我们明明都知道该去做的、最基础的财富积累方式。
Just basic ways to build wealth that we all know we should be doing.
在社交媒体泛滥、人人都在晒购物和旅行的今天，看看他这样的人，真是一种很好的提醒。
It's just a helpful reminder looking at someone like him in the age of social media, where people are always sharing the frivolous things they're buying or the trips they're taking.
要想真正自由，能按自己的方式安排生活，芒格就是实现财务独立的典范。
In order to be truly free and to be able to structure your life in a way that suits you, Munger is a good example of achieving financial independence.
财务自由，让你有底气拒绝那些你不想做的事。
Being financially independent allows you to say no to things you'd rather not do.
现在很多人其实都陷在这样的处境里：背了一身债，全靠雇主发工资来还贷款、养家糊口。
I think about how nowadays so many people can find themselves in a situation where they have a lot of debt, they rely on their employer to pay them so they have to make the payments on their loans and put food on the table.
当然，几乎每个人一生中都会经历这么一段日子。
Of course, pretty much everyone is in this position at some point in their lives.
但如果你朝着财务自由努力，最终你就能做出这些选择，拥有自由去打造属于自己的生活。
But if you work towards financial independence, then eventually you can make those decisions and have that freedom to design a life of your own.
真正的财富不是拥有多少钱，而是拥有自己的时间。
True wealth is not having a lot of money, but owning your time.
芒格谈到财务自由时，最喜欢的一本书是《巴比伦最富有的人》。
One of Munger's favorite books when it comes to financial independence is The Richest Man in Babylon.
这本书很简单，但特别重要，它讲的都是基础理念：别花得比收入多，坚持把每一分钱的一部分存下来，避开享乐适应的陷阱等等。
It's such a simple book, but it's so important to absorb these basic concepts like don't outspend your income, consistently save a portion of every dollar you earn, avoid the trap of the hedonic treadmill, etcetera.
我觉得芒格在这一点上也深受本杰明·富兰克林的影响。
I think Munger was also highly influenced in this regard by Benjamin Franklin.
富兰克林推崇节俭和勤奋的工作态度，他用财务自由让自己在这有限的人生里活得更有价值。
Franklin wrote about the virtues of frugality and a strong work ethic, and he used financial independence to make the most of his limited time here on earth.
富兰克林曾写信给母亲说，他宁愿别人说他一生过得有意义，也不愿说他死的时候很富有。
Franklin had written a letter to his mother saying that he would rather have people say about him that he lived usefully than he died rich.
想更深入了解财务自由的重要性，市面上有很多相关的书可以读。
To learn more about the importance of financial independence, there are a lot of books out there on this topic.
我觉得《巴比伦最富有的人》这本书很不错。
I think The Richest Man in Babylon is a good one.
还有高塔姆·巴特斯《复利的喜悦》一书中的那一章，也特别特别棒。
Then the chapter in Gautam Bates book, The Joys of Compounding is also really, really good.
如果你对这个话题感兴趣，我强烈推荐你去看看。
I highly recommend if you're interested in learning more about that.
接下来，我想转到聊聊查理是怎么做投资的，以及我觉得这方面最重要的东西。
Next, I wanted to transition to talk more about how Charlie approached investing and what I think is most important in this regard.
沃伦·巴菲特在1988年说过，我深受查理的影响。
Warren Buffett said back in 1988, I've been shaped tremendously by Charlie.
要是我只听本·格雷厄姆的，现在肯定穷多了。
Boy, if I had listened only to Ben Graham, would I be ever a lot poorer.
2015年，巴菲特写道，查理让他明白，别再想着用极好的价格买一般的企业了。
In 2015, Buffett wrote that Munger taught him, Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices.
相反，应该用合理的价格去买真正优秀的企业。
Instead, buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.
巴菲特买那些便宜到离谱的‘雪茄烟头’企业，也做得相当不错。
Buffett did just fine by purchasing cigar but businesses that were ridiculously cheap.
但在芒格看来，这种投资模式根本没法规模化。
But the problem in Munger's mind is that the investment model wasn't able to scale.
芒格曾说，收购那些暂时受压但优质的公司，彻底改变了伯克希尔的前景，让公司得以大幅扩张。
Munger had said that buying great businesses that were temporarily under pressure changed everything for the better for Berkshire, as it allowed them to scale up enormously.
最早的一个例子，就是1972年他们收购喜诗糖果。
One of the earliest examples of this was their purchase of See's Candy in 1972.
伯克希尔当时花了两千五百万美元，市盈率才六倍。
Berkshire Hathaway paid $25,000,000 and only paid a multiple of six times earnings.
在2019年的股东大会上，巴菲特提到，单是喜诗糖果这一笔投资，就为伯克希尔创造了超过二十亿美元的利润。
And in the twenty nineteen annual meeting, Buffett had said that the C's candy purchase alone had made Berkshire over $2,000,000,000 in profits.
我特别认同芒格对商业品质的极致关注。
I really resonate with Munger's tremendous focus on business quality.
我想起他的一句话，自从我在TIP工作以来，一直深深印在我心里。
I'm reminded of his quote that has really stuck with me throughout my time here at TIP.
长期来看，一只股票的回报很难超越它所代表的那家企业的实际回报。
I quote, Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns.
如果一家企业连续四十年每年资本回报率是6%，你持有四十年，最终的收益也不会比6%高多少，哪怕你当初买得再便宜。
If the business earns 6% on capital over forty years and you hold it for forty years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return, even if you originally buy it at a huge discount.
相反，如果一家企业连续二三十年资本回报率达到18%，哪怕你买的时候价格看起来很高，最终的收益也会非常惊人。
Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with one hell of a result.
我忍不住要提一下芒格最钟爱的投资标的，可能除了伯克希尔之外，那就是好市多。
I can't help but talk about probably Munger's favorite business that he's ever invested in, probably outside of Berkshire Hathaway, and this is Costco.
芒格对这家企业的品质推崇备至，甚至说他永远不会卖出一股股票。
Munger admired the quality of this business so much that he claimed he would never sell a share.
他还说自己完全沉迷于这家公司。
He claimed himself to be a total addict of this business.
在好市多，除了CEO之外，芒格是第二大股东，持股比例达到1/30。
Outside of Costco CEO, Munger was the second largest shareholder one:thirty of the company.
我们先休息一下，听听今天赞助商的消息。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
我每天都在研究全球顶尖企业的财务数据，有一件事很快就变得很明显。
Greg Spending my days digging through the financials of the world's best businesses, and one thing becomes obvious fast.
真正胜出的公司，都是那些能清楚看清自己内部运营状况的企业。
The companies that win are the ones that can actually see what's happening inside their own operation.
现在大家都说，你每天在AI上慢一步，就会落后两天。
And these days, they say that every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.
竞争对手的速度越来越快，但幸运的是，还有NetSuite Next。
The competition is only moving faster, but fortunately, there's Netsuite next.
你可能已经听说过NetSuite，这个由AI驱动的商业管理平台，能安全地整合你所有的数据。
You probably already know Netsuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all your data.
它是一个统一的系统，把财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理全都整合成一个可信的单一数据源，已有四万三千多家客户在使用。
It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.
NetSuite Next，是商业运作方式的又一次巨大飞跃。
Netsuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done.
因为现在，AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。
Because now AI is built into everything you do.
它针对多种行业做了定制，完全贴合你实际的业务运作方式。
It's customized for a wide range of industries, so it supports the way your business actually works.
不管你公司年收入几百万还是上亿，现在都该用上Netsuite Next，让AI真正融入你的业务。
Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, it's time for Netsuite Next, where your business meets AI.
如果我正在经营一家快速成长的企业，需要把财务和运营整合到一个平台上，我一定会选Netsuite。
And look, if I were running a growing company and needed to get my financials and operations onto one platform, Netsuite is exactly what I'd use.
历史上第一次，你可以免费试用Netsuite Next。
For the first time ever, you can try Netsuite Next for free.
如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，就去netsuite.aitip官网看看。
If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.aitip.
覆盖全行业，随时准备进入董事会。
Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom.
访问netsuite.aitip。
That's netsuite.aitip.
对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步吗？
Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?
你不是一个人在战斗。
You're not alone.
Plus500期货是个不错的入门选择。
And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.
期货市场变化很快，有了Plus500，你可以轻松交易原油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。
The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
从加密货币到大宗商品，总有不少机会在发生。
From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.
平台操作非常简单，随时随地用手机就能交易。
The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.
只需100美元就能开户，立刻参与交易。
You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.
看到感兴趣的机会了吗？
See something interesting?
账户开通后，几下点击就能下单交易。
Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.
如果你还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。
And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.
零风险，无压力。
No risk, no pressure.
凭借二十年的经验，Plus500 让交易变得前所未有的简单。
With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.
前往 plus500.com 了解更多。
Check it out at plus500.com.
交易和期货存在亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请人都能通过审核。
Trading and futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.
Plus500，让交易更上一层楼。
Plus500, it's trading with a plus.
在加入这个投资者播客之前，我脑子里全是各种万一。
Before I joined the investors podcast, every what if you can imagine was running through my head.
万一我根本不适合这个听众群体怎么办？
What if I'm not the right fit for this audience?
要是我在镜头前紧张得说不出话怎么办？
What if I freeze up on camera?
要是我跟不上这里大家期待的分析水平怎么办？
What if I can't keep up with the level of analysis people here expect?
但我最终还是选择了相信自己，这成了我做过最明智的决定之一。回想那些初期的日子，要是能有个伙伴像Shopify之于商家那样支持我，压力肯定会小很多。
Well, betting on myself anyways turned out to be one of the best decisions I've ever made and I'll tell you those early days would have been a lot less stressful with a partner in my corner the way Shopify is for the businesses that work with them.
Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台，也支撑着美国10%的电子商务交易。
Shopify is the e commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US.
从Allbirds、Gymshark这样的知名品牌，到刚刚起步的小众品牌，都在用它。
From household names like Allbirds and Gymshark to brands just getting off the ground.
你可以从他们的设计工作室开始，直接使用数百个现成模板，轻松打造一个与品牌风格一致的精美网店，完全不需要设计经验。
You get started with their design studio, hundreds of ready to use templates that help you build a beautiful online store that actually matches your brand with no design background required.
它还内置了大量AI工具，帮你处理那些你根本没想到要做的琐事，比如写产品描述、拟定标题，甚至优化产品图片。
It's also packed with AI tools that handle the work you didn't realize you'd have to do, writing product descriptions, headlines, even enhancing your product photography.
那要是遇到困难怎么办？
And what if you get stuck?
只要24.07美元，还配有获奖的客服团队，全程帮你搞定。
Well, is around $24.07 with award winning customer support to walk you through it.
现在就用Shopify，把那些顾虑变成现实吧。
It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.
前往shopify.com/tip，注册每月仅1美元的试用。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial at shopify.com/tip.
访问shopify.com/tip。
Go to shopify.com/tip.
就是shopify.com/tip。
That's shopify.com/tip.
好了，我们继续节目。
All right, back to the show.
根据《商业内幕》的报道，芒格持有超过18.7万股好市多股票，价值超过1.1亿美元。他自1997年起就担任公司董事。
Clay According to Business Insider, Munger owned over 187,000 shares in Costco, which was worth over $110,000,000 Charlie served as the director of the company since 1997.
当时，好市多的股价大约是每股15美元。
And at that time, shares of Costco traded around $15 a share.
录制时，股价大约在600美元左右，相比二十六年前上涨了四十倍，年均回报率约为15.2%。
And at the time of recording, the shares traded around $600 representing a 40X increase in the stock price over twenty six years, which equates to an average annual return of around 15.2% per year.
15%的回报率听起来可能不算惊人，但如果你把这种稳健的回报持续十年、二十年甚至更久，最终的投资成果会非常可观。
Now 15% might not sound like a home run investment, but when you take a moderate rate of return like 15% and you extend that out over ten or even twenty or more years, you really end up with a nice result as an investor.
根据Costco1997年的年报，当时公司拥有268家仓储店，大部分在美国，年销售额达210亿美元。
According to Costco's 1997 annual report, the company had two sixty eight warehouses, most of which were in The US and $21,000,000,000 worth of sales.
再看2022年底，公司依然以美国市场为主，但国际业务的规模已经大得多。
Flash forward to the end of twenty twenty two, the company's main focus is still in The US, but they also have a much larger international presence.
2022年，他们的营收达到了2260亿美元。
In 2022, they had $226,000,000,000 in revenues.
这比1997年增长了十倍以上。
That's over a 10x increase from 1997.
尼克·斯利普曾把Costco的商业模式称为‘规模经济共享’的典范。
Nick Sleep famously described the Costco business model as a model of scale economy shared.
我们在本播客第492期里详细解读过尼克·斯利普那些精彩的信件。
We dove into and covered Nick Sleep's amazing letters in episode four ninety two on this podcast.
Costco最厉害的地方，在于它有一个良性循环，每天都让自己的护城河变得更宽。
What's amazing about Costco is this virtuous cycle that they have in place that continually expands their moat with each passing day.
Costco有好多仓储式门店，卖的都是大包装商品，而且百分百坚持低价策略。
Costco has a number of warehouses that sells these big box goods and they're a 100% committed to providing low prices.
因为价格低，吸引了大量顾客，反过来又让每家店的客流量和销量都大幅提升。
Then because of those low prices, this attracts a lot of customers and this in turn gives them a lot of traffic and a lot of volume per store.
由于生意太火爆，他们在供应商面前很有话语权，只要拿到更低的进货价，马上就让利给顾客。
And since they're such a popular place to shop, this gives them bargaining power with suppliers and any price decreases that Costco is able to get, they just simply pass that down to the customer.
Costco的价格跟竞争对手拉得越开，顾客得到的实惠就越多，这个循环也就越转越强。
And then the further Costco's prices are from competition, the more value customers are getting through those lower prices and then the cycle continues.
Costco的商业模式，让我想到芒格说的‘多因素协同效应’。
The Costco business model reminds me of what Munger calls the Lollapalooza effect.
他说过：当两股、三股甚至四股力量同时朝同一个方向发力时，就会出现这种协同效应。
I quote, You get Lollapalooza effects when two, three or four forces are all operating in the same direction.
而且很多时候，结果不是简单的相加，而是成倍放大。
And frequently you don't get simple addition.
这就像物理学中的临界质量，一旦达到某个质量阈值，就会引发核爆炸；如果没达到，那就什么显著的效果都看不到。
It's often like critical mass in physics where you get a nuclear explosion if you get to a certain point of mass and you don't get anything much worth seeing if you don't reach that mass.
你得明白生物学家朱利安·赫胥黎的观点——生命就是一件接一件的关联。
You have to realize the truth of biologists, Julian Huxley's idea that life is just one damn relatedness after another.
所以你必须掌握这些模型，看清事物之间的关联，以及这些关联带来的影响。
So you must have the models and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness.
Costco模式成功的原因有很多，比如顾客忠诚度、会员制带来的连锁效应、商品选择有限带来的优势，等等。
Are just so many factors that play into the success of the Costco model, including their customer loyalty, the downstream effects of their membership model, the impact of their limited selection, etcetera.
在我眼里，和Costco及其品质最相关的重大主题之一，就是它的业务持久性。
One of the bigger themes that sticks out to me as it relates to Costco and its quality is the durability of the business.
我相信，从芒格的角度看，这家公司每年都会比前一年变得更强大。
I'm sure from Munger's point of view, it's a company that is nearly certain to become a stronger business one year after the next.
一部分原因在于，它的商业模式实在太出色了。
Part of that is because the business model is just so good.
另一部分原因是，管理层完全着眼于长远，绝不为了取悦华尔街或股东而牺牲短期利益。
And the other part is that the management team just thinks super long term and they aren't willing to make any short term sacrifices to appease Wall Street or appease shareholders.
芒格还说过，好生意和坏生意的区别在于，好生意总能不断遇到简单的选择，而坏生意则总是被迫做痛苦的决定。
Munger has also said, The difference between a good business and a bad business is that good businesses throw up one easy decision after another, bad businesses throw up painful decisions time after time.
对于好市多来说，他们一直在想：什么样的决定才是高质量的？
For Costco, they constantly think, what is the high quality decision?
怎么做对顾客最有利？
What is the best thing for customers?
他们明白，对顾客最有利的，长远来看也最有利于股东。
Knowing that the best thing for customers is also the best thing for shareholders long term.
在好市多的模式里，每个人都是赢家。
Everyone wins in the Costco model.
好市多的护城河也特别让我感兴趣。
Just the moat of Costco is also really interesting to me.
一家公司光有护城河还不够——也就是防止竞争对手抢走市场份额——更重要的是，这个护城河还得不断变宽，才能提供持久的保护。
It's not only important for a company to have a moat or in other words, protection against competitors stealing market share, but it's also important that the moat is continually widening to provide that enduring protection.
这让投资者安心，因为每一天，这家公司的实力都在不断增强，而不是逐渐削弱。
It gives investors the peace of mind that with each passing day, the business is becoming stronger and stronger and they're not becoming weaker.
他们不断加大难度，让竞争对手越来越难追上并抢走市场份额。
They're just continually making it more and more difficult for competitors to catch up with them and steal that share.
《查理·芒格的智慧箴言》里提到，在漫长的职业生涯中，他们渐渐明白——有时是付出了痛苦的代价——很少有企业能跨越多代人持续生存。
Poor Charlie's Almanac states, Over their long business careers, they have learned, sometimes painfully, that few businesses survive over multiple generations.
因此，他们努力寻找并只投资那些有较大机会突破这些严峻挑战的企业。
Accordingly, they strive to identify and buy only those businesses with a good chance of beating those tough odds.
我也想起芒格曾提到规模带来的巨大价值。
I'm also reminded of Munger mentioning the enormous value of scale.
他指出，决定企业成败的关键因素中，规模优势的重要性简直难以估量，而这同样是好市多成功的核心因素之一。
He stated that in terms of which businesses succeed and which fail, advantages of scale is ungodly important, which is of course a key factor in Costco's success as well.
所以，我想先强调的第一点，和他投资理念相关的是：专注那些高质量的企业，它们的管理层有长远眼光，随着护城河不断拓宽，内在价值几乎必然持续增长。
So that's the first part that I wanted to mention here and related to his investment approach is focus on businesses that are high quality with managers that think long term and they're nearly certain to have their intrinsic values increase over time as their moats widen.
记住，时间是卓越企业的朋友，却是劣质企业的敌人。
Remember that time is the friend of a wonderful business and the enemy of a poor business.
我最近看到一位朋友发帖说，他以前特别害怕看到自己持有的那些表现平平的企业发布的财报。
I recently saw a post from a friend where he said that he used to dread earnings reports of subpar businesses he used to own.
他一直在等，等那个让他后悔持有低质量公司的时刻。
He was just waiting for that one that would just totally make him regret owning a low quality or poor business.
现在他转而投资高质量公司，晚上睡得安稳多了，财报也常常超出预期。
Now that he's transitioned to owning high quality businesses, he sleeps much better at night and the earnings reports tend to surprise to the upside in general.
让我印象深刻的第二点，是查理·芒格真正坚持长期视角。
The second part that stands out to me about Charlie Munger's investment approach is how he truly embraces a long term view.
芒格早在1962年就开始买入伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票，当时每股大约七八美元。
Munger started purchasing shares in Berkshire Hathaway in 1962 at around $7 or $8 per share.
当然，那是A类股。
And of course, those are A shares.
如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦的A类股股价大约在5万到4万美元之间，从他最初买入算起，股价涨了超过七万两千倍。
Today, the A shares of Berkshire Hathaway are worth around 5 and $40,000 So from that first initial purchase that Munger made, the share price is up by over 72,000 X.
想想看，这需要多强的复利效应，又需要多大的定力，才能在已经赚了这么多钱的情况下，依然坚持不卖。
Just think about how much compounding that is and then just how much discipline it is to hang onto the shares in light of how much money you've made on that investment.
芒格有句话在投资界特别贴切：真正赚大钱的，不是买或卖的时机，而是等待。
Munger has that quote that rings so true in the investment world, The big money is not made in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.
我特别喜欢这句话。
And I just absolutely love that quote.
关键不仅在于他选对了时机，更在于他愿意长期持有这家卓越的企业，整整六十多年。
The key was not only that he bought at the right time, but he was willing to sit on owning a fantastic business for over sixty years.
他真正懂得耐心的力量，以及延迟满足的价值。
He clearly understood the power of patience and the power of deferred gratification.
他曾说过：如果你为人正直，每天早起，持续学习，并且愿意一生都为长远回报而忍耐，你一定会成功。
He once stated, If you're glued together and honorable and get up every morning and keep learning every day and you're willing to go in for a lot of deferred gratification all your life, you're going to succeed.
这还让我想起芒格的一句话：复利的第一条规则，就是千万别无端打断它。
It also reminds me of the Munger quote that the first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.
如果你有耐心，又能谨慎选择要投资的企业，依我看，你就已经大大提升了成功的概率。
So if you're patient and you're thoughtful in your business selections of which businesses you're going to own, in my opinion, you're pretty heavily stacking the odds in your favor.
巴菲特说过，股市就是把钱从急躁的人手里转移到有耐心的人手里的工具。
Buffett said that the stock market is a device that transfers money from the inpatient to the patient.
好消息是，每一家优秀的企业，在其发展历程中，至少都会因为短期原因而股价下跌。
And the good news is that every great business, at least once in its history, is going to be trading down for very short term reasons.
这反过来为那些愿意并有能力承受波动和短期不确定性的耐心投资者创造了机会。
This in turn presents opportunities for patient investors who are willing and able to hold through that volatility and short term uncertainty.
这也让我想起我持有的一只股票，那真是个了不起的企业。
It also reminds me of one stock I own that's just an amazing business.
我觉得它的股价远低于内在价值。
I believe it's trading well below its intrinsic value.
目前它的市盈率不高，却增长迅猛，护城河还特别宽。
And it's trading around a market multiple, growing like a weed, has a huge moat.
老实说，过去几个月股价一直低迷，持有起来简直无聊透顶。
And frankly, the stock has been pretty boring to hold over the past few months as it's remained cheap.
幸运的是，它跌得够久，让我有足够空间建仓，我也愿意看看未来几年会怎样。
Fortunately, it stayed down long enough for me to build a position and I'm willing to see what happens over the next few years.
如果我对这家企业的判断没错——它未来还能像过去那样持续执行并增长的话。
If I was right in assessing that the business will continue to be able to execute and grow the way it has in years past.
伯克希尔哈撒韦这只72000倍的股票，也经历过不少回撤。
Berkshire Hathaway, the 72,000 bagger has also had their fair share of drawdowns too.
自从巴菲特和芒格接管这家公司以来，它的股价至少被腰斩过三次。
Their stock has been cut in half at least three times since Buffett and Munger took over the company.
说到这种耐心，芒格也愿意持有现金，静静等待那个能让他一击制胜的机会。
And related to this patience, Munger is also willing to sit on some cash and wait for that pitch that he can just really knock out of the ballpark.
他指出，真正了不起的投资机会其实非常罕见。
He points out that truly amazing opportunities are quite rare.
在一次股东会上，他曾说：在我们这种人生里，关键在于当难得的好机会出现时，你能认得出来。
During a previous shareholder meeting, he stated, The game in our kind of life is being able to recognize a good idea when you rarely get it.
我觉得，这种能力需要长期的准备。
And I think that is something you have to prepare for a long period.
有句老话讲得好：机会总是青睐有准备的人。
There's the old saying that opportunity comes to the prepared mind.
这正是游戏的真谛。
That's the game.
这些绝佳的机会，有时候其实非常明显，就摆在你眼前。
These great opportunities, sometimes they're just so obvious and they're staring right in front of you.
想想伯克希尔在2015或2016年买苹果的时候，股价才十到十二倍市盈率。
Just think about Berkshire buying Apple in 2015 or 2016 when it was trading at 10 or 12 times earnings.
当时有多少人能清楚看出亚马逊正在彻底改变零售业？
How many people could clearly see Amazon massively disrupting the retail industry?
我觉得根本不需要多聪明，就能看出好市多在未来很长一段时间里潜力巨大。
And I don't think it took genius to realize that Costco was very well positioned to grow over a really long period of time.
芒格还拿报业打过比方，说那时候很明显，很多城市都只有一家报纸，几乎就是垄断。
Munger had related this point to the newspaper industry and how it was just so clear that so many towns had one newspaper that was essentially a monopoly in the city.
还有个故事是关于芒格的，他读《巴伦周刊》已经五十多年了。
And then there's also that story about Munger and how he'd been reading the Barron's Magazine for more than fifty years.
这五十多年里，他只找到一个真正值得行动的投资点。
He only found one actionable idea in it.
那是一家估值很低的汽车零部件公司，他以每股一美元的价格买进。
It was a cheaply valued auto parts company and he bought it for $1 per share.
几年后，他把这支股票以每股十五美元的价格卖掉了。
And then he ended up selling that stock a few years later for $15 a share.
这样一笔投资回报了十五倍，帮他赚了八千万美元的利润。
So 15X's money on it, earning him $80,000,000 in profits.
后来芒格把这八千万美元交给了李录，李录又把它变成了四亿美元。
And then Munger gave that $80,000,000 to Li Lu and Li Lu turned that 80,000,000 into 400,000,000.
这种耐心和一贯的做法，完美展现了芒格一生中如何运用复利与坚持。
So that patience, that consistency just was a really, really good example of the use of compounding and patience in Munger's life.
高塔姆·巴德在《复利的喜悦》一书中写道：这个例子说明了极致的耐心、延迟满足，以及在关键时刻果断行动的重要性。
Gautam Bade writes in his book here, The Joys of Compounding, This example illustrates the significance of extreme patience, deferred gratification, and displaying a strong decisiveness at the right moment.
这就是为什么芒格说过：要有足够的定力，才能手握大笔现金却什么都不做。
It is why Munger has stated, It takes character to sit there with all that cash and do nothing.
我今天能走到这一步，从没靠过那些平庸的机会。
I didn't get to where I am today by going after mediocre opportunities.
这让我想起几个月前我采访克里斯·梅耶时，他提到的一个观点。
This also reminds me of the point that Chris Mayer made in my interview with him a few months back.
我提到过，克里斯和巴菲特、芒格很像，他把大量时间花在阅读、思考、研究自己的生意和新机会上。
I mentioned how Chris is similar to Buffett and Munger in that he's spending so much of his time reading, thinking, studying his businesses, studying new opportunities.
芒格的投资策略，很大程度上就是耐心等待。
So much of Munger's investment approach is just simply waiting.
这意味着要等到下一个绝佳机会，或者在找到合适的买入点之后，静静等待投资复利发挥作用。
This means waiting for the next great opportunity or simply waiting for your investments to compound and just let that magic of compounding work for you after you found some of those opportunities to buy.
《穷查理宝典》里提到，把更多时间花在学习和思考上，而不是急于行动，这绝非偶然。
Poor Charlie's Almanac states here, This habit of committing far more time to learning and thinking than to doing is no accident.
这是真正大师所具备的自律与耐心的结合，是对每一步决策都严谨对待的执着。
It is the blend of discipline and patience exhibited by true masters of a craft, an uncompromising commitment to properly playing the hand.
就像世界级桥牌高手理查德·泽卡乌斯一样，查理衡量自己的标准，不是赢了哪一手，而是自己打得多漂亮。
Like world class bridge player, Richard Zekauser, Charlie scores himself not so much on whether he won the hand, but rather how well he played it.
在芒格和巴菲特的世界里，结果不好是可以理解的，毕竟有些事超出掌控；但准备不足、决策草率，却永远不可原谅，因为这些完全在自己控制之中。
While poor outcomes are excusable in the Munger Buffett world, given the fact that some outcomes are outside of their control, sloppy preparation and decision making are never excusable because they are controllable.
每当我遇到一个新的投资机会，都必须同时考虑它的机会成本。
When I come across a new investment, we should always consider our opportunity costs as well.
我可能会看到一个看似诱人的点子，想加仓进去，但必须把它和我们现有的机会清单做对比。
I may come across an idea and it may seem compelling to add to it, but it has to be compared to our current opportunity set.
在我的投资组合里，有几家公司我觉得特别不错。
Within my own portfolio, I have a couple of names that I think are pretty great ideas.
每当我看到一个新的标的，我都会问自己：它是不是不仅比我现在手里的机会好一点，而是好很多？
When I come across a new name, the question I'm asking myself, is this new name not only slightly better than my existing opportunity set, but is it a lot better?
如果你不断以有吸引力的价格买入最高质量的公司，你的投资组合整体水平就会持续提升，这样面对接下来95%的新机会，你就能更轻松地说不。
When you continually add companies of the highest quality at attractive valuations, you're continually raising the bar in your portfolio and making it easier to say no to at least 95% of new opportunities that come your way.
芒格还认为，当你买入并长期持有极高质素的企业时，根本不需要太多分散投资。
Munger also believes that not much diversification is needed when buying and holding very high quality businesses.
他曾说，哪怕只持有三家公司，对他来说就已经足够分散了。
He stated that even a portfolio of just three companies is enough diversification for him.
这也跟他之前提到的观点一致——真正出色的投资机会其实非常稀少。
This also ties into his belief that truly great opportunities are rare, as I mentioned.
所以，为了真正抓住这些机会，你得适当集中持仓，就像芒格那样，在进入每笔投资前都对这家公司了如指掌。
So in order to really make them count, you need to have some level of concentration, given you're very knowledgeable on the company as Munger is when he's entering these positions.
因此，你必须清楚自己的经验和能力到底处在什么水平。
So you definitely need to be mindful of where you're at in terms of experience and competence.
你可别因为听了某个播客说应该集中投资三到五个标的，就盲目跟风。
You don't want to concentrate into three to five positions just because you heard on a podcast that it's the right thing to do.
芒格自己也承认，即使几十年来一直做这一行，他后来还是犯过重大错误。
Munger, even after decades of being at this game admits that he still made major mistakes later on in his career.
所以我们别太天真，以为自己就不会犯类似的错误。
So we shouldn't be too foolish to believe that we aren't prone to making similar mistakes as well.
《保罗·查理年鉴》有一篇文章解释了，为什么他如此注重极少买卖，坚持高度集中、高度专注的投资策略。
Paul Charlie's Almanac had this piece on why he's so focused on very little activity in terms of buying and selling and having this highly concentrated, highly focused approach.
芒格说过，我们更倾向于一次性投入大笔资金，之后就不用再做决策了。
Munger stated, We're partial to putting out large amounts of money where we won't have to make another decision.
如果你因为股价被低估才买入，那当价格接近你计算出的内在价值时，就得重新考虑要不要卖出。
If you buy something because it's undervalued, then you have to go think about selling it when it approaches the calculation your intrinsic value.
这很难。
That's hard.
但如果你能买到几家真正优秀的企业，就可以安心躺着，那才是好事。
But if you can buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass, that's a good thing.
这基本上就是我从查理·芒格身上学到的所有东西了。
So that concludes so much of what I've learned from Charlie Munger.
我前面提到的很多道理，其实更多是关于生活的。
I mentioned many of the lessons that apply more to life in the first half of this episode.
后半部分我则讲了从查理那里学到的一些更高层面的见解。
Then I touched on the high level things I've learned from Charlie in the second half here.
我想用芒格的一句话来结束这期节目：把一个简单的想法当真。
And I wanted to close out this episode with a final quote from Munger, and that's to take a simple idea and take it seriously.
那么，从查理·芒格或者这期节目里，你带走的一个最简单的想法是什么？你能认真地把它用到自己的生活中吗？
So what's one simple idea that you can take away from Charlie Munger or this episode that you can seriously implement into your own life?
听播客太容易了，听着听着就觉得自己在进步。
It's so easy to just listen to podcasts and feel like we're being productive listening.
真正重要的是，把学到的东西用起来，真正落实到生活里。
What really matters is using that knowledge, using what you learn and actually implement it into your life.
我很想听听，你从查理·芒格或者这期节目里，学到的哪一句话对你影响最大，甚至改变了你的想法？
I'd love for you to let me know one thing you've learned from Charlie Munger, one thing you've learned from this episode that you just found to be really impactful or it's changed the way you've thought.
你可以直接在微博上私信我 ClayFink，也可以随时发邮件到 clay@theinvestorspodcast.com。
You can feel free to tweet at me ClayFink or you can always email me clay@theinvestorspodcast.com.
我很期待听到你的反馈。
I'd love to hear from you.
感谢收听本期节目，希望下次还能再见到你。
Thanks for tuning in to today's episode, and I hope to see you again next time.
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Make sure to subscribe to Millennial Investing by The Investor's Podcast Network and learn how to achieve financial independence.
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To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com.
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Before making any decision, consult a professional.
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