TIP820：WIX：最具不对称性的AI押注？与Daniel Mahncke和Shawn O’Malley对话

这意味着他们的转换成本要高得多。

And that just means they have much higher switching costs.

毕竟，重建20个网站比只建一个花的时间多得多，尤其是你还得跟那些瑜伽教练一一解释，他们的仪表盘突然跟以前不一样了。

Just because, you know, obviously, it takes more time rebuilding 20 sites compared to just one, especially when you have to explain to all those different yoga teachers that suddenly their dashboards will look different from before.

再想想，你这么做可能一年也就省下几百美元。

And if you then consider that, you probably only do that to save, let's say, a couple $100 a year.

我觉得这吸引力实在不大。

I think that's not the most attractive value proposition.

所以随着合作伙伴收入占比上升，Wix收入中特别容易受Vibecoding影响的部分，长期来看会逐渐下降。

So as the partner share grows, the share of Wix revenue that's particularly vulnerable to vibecoding should go down over time.

不过话说回来，我知道这很重要，也是股价下跌30%的部分原因——本季度是首次合作伙伴收入环比几乎没增长。

That said, though, and I know that's quite important, and part of why the stock dropped 30%, this quarter has actually been the first where partner revenue was almost flat quarter over quarter.

有趣的是，财报里你一时看不出来，因为Wix展示的是同比数据，看起来还是20%的增长。

And interestingly, you don't immediately see that in the filings because Wix shows you the year over year comparisons, and they would still show 20% growth.

但环比来看，实际上已经停滞了。

Quarter over quarter though, they have actually flatlined.

看到这种情况，未必是好事，对吧？

It's not necessarily a great sign when you see that, right?

如果管理层能给出合理的解释，他们本该主动提一下这个趋势，哪怕他们一向习惯展示同比数据。

If management had a good explanation for that, they might have made an extra effort to point this dynamic out, even if they're used to showing the year over year comps.

所以现在对那些正被市场对AI的担忧波及的公司来说，证明自己没什么可隐瞒的，比以往任何时候都更重要。

And so I really think it's more important than ever for companies that are sort of caught in the crosshairs by the market's fears of AI right now to really prove that they're not hiding anything.

另一个支持看空Wix的观点是，他们的付费高级用户数在2023年达到约630万的峰值，之后减少了20万。

So another number that fits into the bear argument against Wix is that their premium subscriber count peaked in 2023 around 6,300,000 and has since declined by 200,000 paid subscribers.

这些是不是AI冲击的初步迹象？

So are those perhaps the first signs of AI disruption?

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

这些数据，尤其是眼下，确实对他们的故事不利。

I mean, those data points, especially right now, they certainly don't help the narrative.

但管理层早就计划好要缩减用户规模，集中精力服务那些价值更高、黏性更强的客户。

But the decline was planned by management to mostly focus on these higher value, more deeply embedded customers.

我再说一遍，如果你看用户分组，新用户的收入明显高于老用户。

As I said, again, if you look at the cohorts, the newer ones make significantly more money than the older ones.

Wix 大幅上调了低端套餐的价格，有些地方甚至涨了五成到一倍。

So Wix aggressively raised prices on the lower tier plans, by some accounts up to 50% to 100%.

他们干脆放任低端用户流失。

And they basically let the churn on the low end happen.

公司说用户流失，我们通常都会怀疑，但这次他们就是故意这么做的。

So, I mean, you always gonna be skeptical when companies say that they lose subscribers, but that's actually what they wanted to do.

而且他们早在财报电话会里就暗示过这种打算，所以这根本不是 AI 带来的冲击，纯粹是商业策略调整。

But since they've alluded to that in the earnings calls before it actually happened, I think we can take this as a case of not AI impact, but actually just business strategy.

还有很多关键指标都能支持这个观点。

Also, there are a lot of KPIs that actually underscore that thesis.

你看收入和预订量，增长势头依然强劲，从 2023 年开始还明显加速了。

So if you look at revenue and bookings, they are still growing at a healthy clip, and they have actually started to meaningfully reaccelerate since 2023.

总预订量的增长已经翻了三倍，从 4% 回升到了去年的 13%。

So we're talking about total bookings growth that has actually tripled, going from 4% back to 13% last year.

更重要的是，对于像今天这样的价值型案例，利润率也显著提升了。

And then probably even more important, especially for a value case like today, margins expanded significantly as well.

去年底，业务解决方案的毛利润率从28%升到了34%，扩大了六个百分点，而收入也实现了两位数增长。

So, you know, the business solution gross margin went from 28% to 34% by the end of last year, and that's a six point expansion, while revenue also grew double digits.

正如你提到的，净收入留存率达到了105%，这意味着在扣除所有因涨价而流失的客户后，剩余客户今年的整体支出比去年高出5%。

And as you pointed out, net revenue retention is a 105, which means existing customers in aggregate are spending 5% more this year than last year after accounting for every customer that churned after these price hikes.

我觉得最大的风险是——虽然我们后面可能还会聊到，但我现在就想提一下——未来可能会有一家大语言模型公司率先达到大家常说的AGI水平，其性能远超其他所有模型。

So I think the one big risk, and we we might still talk about this later, but I kind of wanna bring it up here already, is that there will be one LLM provider that reaches what, you know, everybody's calling AGI, this, you know, huge level of intelligence and outperforms all the other models by a wide margin.

如果是那样，Base44、Lovable这些工具目前强调的‘模型无关’特性就基本失效了——它们本来可以自由切换Claude、Chinchilla或Gemini，但如果只有一个模型明显更优秀，那其他选择就没什么意义了。

And if that's the case, this model agnostic nature of Base44, Lovable, and all these other tools, which basically just means they could use Claude, but they could also use Chegevity, and they could also use Gemini, That is pretty much useless at that point because there's only one model that is doing a significantly better job than all the other ones.

到那时，它们唯一还能站得住脚的理由就是：自己专精于搭建网站和工具，而那些更通用的大模型可能根本没兴趣去开发后端系统，来直接跟这些AI编程工具竞争。

The only argument left for them at that point would be that they are specialized in building websites and tools, while these still more general LLMs might not be interested in actually building all the backend stuff to then create a competitor for these vibecoding tools.

这让我想到当初人们说Duolingo能扛住大语言模型冲击的理由。

It does remind me of the arguments for how Duolingo could survive LLM disruption.

对吧？

Right?

通过ChatGPT、Gemini甚至Claude来学语言，基本是不可能的。

Learning a language through chat GBT or or Gemini or even Claude is pretty much impossible.

我觉得这么说挺公允的。

I think it's fair to say.

而且过程会慢得多，体验也没设计成能让你有动力持续回来，对吧？

And it's just gonna take so much longer and the experience is not optimized to keep you motivated to come back, right?

那里完全没有游戏化元素，而Duolingo在这方面做得特别好。

There's no gamification there and Duolingo really excels at that.

所以综合来看，建网站并不像学语言那样需要你每天都回来打卡，建立连续记录。

And so I think with all that said, building a website also doesn't require you to come back regularly though in the same way that learning a language would, where you're, you know, building a streak every single day.

因此，对他们来说，最好的情况就是让用户在网站建好之后，花最少的时间去维护，毕竟这才是理想的用户体验。

And so the best case for them would be to really have people spend as little time as possible fixing the website once it's built because that's sort of what you would want as a user experience.

所以我现在在想，像Base44或Lovable这样只专注做网站搭建，真的算优势吗？

So what I am asking myself now is whether it's truly an advantage for tools like Base44 or Lovable to be solely focused on building websites.

因为如果它们用的不是自己的AI，而是Claude或Gemini，那这种只深耕一个细分领域的做法，真的能带来长期优势吗？

Because if it's not their own AI, but they're using Clod or Gemini, then is it really even a long term advantage that they've built by being focused on just one sort of niche?

Base44 是像一个智能代理吗？我该怎么理解它的作用？

Is it like an agent or how should I think about the role that Base44 plays?

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

我得把这个说清楚。

And I think I should clarify that.

我说 Base44 基于 Claude 或 Gemini，意思是它本身没法像代理那样专门训练某项技能。

So when I say that Base44 runs on Claude or Gemini, that basically means that it cannot be quote unquote trained, like an agent for example, on any skill in particular.

Base44 其实是个封装层，放在 Claude 和 Gemini 上面，当你输入指令时，它负责告诉这些模型该怎么做。

So Base 44 is a wrapper that sits on top of Claude and Gemini, for example, then tells them what to do when you prompt it.

简单来说，就是这样，我讲得已经很简化了。

Simplified, pretty simplified, that's what's happening.

所以 Base44 和 Claude 的区别，就像我们之前说的，在于它附带的整套基础设施。

So what differentiates Base 44 from Claude is, as we said before, the infrastructure that comes with it.

我用 Claude 做这个项目时发现，你还是得额外准备一大堆东西。

So one thing that I noticed while running this project with Claude code is you still need all sorts of additional stuff.

如果你从来没听说过，听起来可能会觉得挺复杂的。

And that can sound complex when you've never heard of it.

比如说，你首先得建一个目录，其实就是个文件夹结构，用来放你所有需要的工具，把东西都整理好存进去。

So for example, you first need a directory, which means nothing else and, you know, having a folder structure where you can actually have all the the tools that you need and, you know, put everything and save it there.

然后你得考虑是用 Python 后端，还是 Node.js 后端。

Then you would need to think about whether you want a Python back end or a Node.

Node.js 后端。

Js back end.

这时候，大多数人可能都会觉得：这也太麻烦了吧。

And at that point, I would assume most people probably say, that's a bit too much.

对我来说太复杂了。

It's a bit too complex for me.

我就想让这个瑜伽网站跑起来就行。

I just wanna have this Yoga site running.

而那些真能熬过这些步骤的人，接下来还得决定用哪个数据库。

And for those who actually make it through that, you now have to decide which database you want to use.

我想强调的是，虽然你现在其实不用写任何代码了，但还是有很多事情得自己做决定、得了解清楚。

And the point that I try to make here is that while you don't really need to code anything anymore, there are a lot of things you still need to decide and know about.

而且你不太可能一上来就清楚该怎么做，实际上，如果你不是程序员，反而可能更慢。

And it's pretty unlikely that you know exactly what to do and that it's actually faster if you're not a software developer.

用 Base 44，你只要给个简单的指令，整个后端就自动帮你搞定了。

Base 44, you just give it a simple prompt, and then basically the entire back end is taken care of by itself.

代码写好之后，用上 Base 44，你的应用很快就能上线。

Once the code is written and you use Base 44, your app is live much quicker.

它会直接给你一个能用的网址，这点可不是写完代码就能立刻拿到的。

It, you has a functioning URL, which is also something that you don't immediately have through crawl code.

你点开这个网址就能直接用，还能随便分享给任何人。

You can click that URL and actually use that, and you can also share that URL with whoever you want to.

比如我做完一个工具，就会把链接发给肖恩，说：嘿，你觉得怎么样？

So for example, if I finish my tool, I would send that URL to Shawn, say, hey, what do you think about this?

然后他说：这不错。

And he says, that's great.

咱们直接直播吧。

Let's stream it.

你最好尽快把这事搞定。

And that's what you wanna do in as little time as possible.

我现在也明白了，其实这些后端工作没那么耗时，也没那么难。

And again, I kind of know now that, you know, all of this back end stuff doesn't have to take forever and isn't necessarily difficult.

我甚至有个火箭科学家手把手带我走完了整个流程。

I mean, I had literally a rocket scientist walk me through the entire process.

要靠我自己选，我肯定不会选这种方式，更不可能像用 Base 44 这么快就完成。

So I don't think there's a way where I would have chosen this approach over something like Base 44 on my own and then also get it done as quickly.

是的。

Yeah.

我更喜欢哪个，这根本不是什么秘密。

I think it's no secret which one I would have preferred.

你提到用目录来处理 Cloud Code 的时候，我有点跟不上了。

You lost me when you talked about just having a directory for the Cloud Code approach.

我之前试着安装OpenCloud，结果根本装不上，那玩意儿和这个还不太一样。

I don't think I could even get OpenCloud, which is a slightly different thing, installed onto my computer when I tried to run it.

到目前为止，我还是没搞明白该怎么弄。

I still haven't quite figured out how to do that.

所以要是有人愿意帮我一下，我得说，我真不算太懂技术。

So if anybody wants to help me with that, I am a little not the most tech savvy, let's say.

不过，咱们还是聊聊Cloud本身吧。

But, you know, let's talk about Cloud itself.

对吧？

Right?

那他们呢？

What about them?

他们不断推出新功能，现在想快速开发一个简单应用，对普通人来说也变得容易多了。

So they release so many features and it's become so easy to quickly code a simple app supposedly for people besides myself.

Claude要是专门往简化方向走，专门服务像我这样的人，会不会对Cloud Code构成威胁？毕竟现在Cloud Code还是有点太复杂了。

Is it a threat that Claude could focus on simplifying things a lot to cater to people like me where, you know, Cloud Code seems a little too complex still to use.

确实如此。

It certainly is.

就在几周前，我们还上传了一段由我们成员主讲的关于人工智能的演讲。

Mean, we just a couple of weeks ago uploaded a call or, you know, a presentation hosted by one of our members about AI.

他提到的一句话一直在我脑子里转悠：我们现在用的所有工具，都是将来最差的AI工具。

And, you know, he basically said one thing that I, you know, keeps coming to my mind and that's that all the tools that we currently have, they are still the worst AI tools we will ever have.

想想Claude过去做的那些事，再想想未来几年可能实现的功能，简直难以想象他们做不到这种程度。

So, you know, if you think about what especially Claude has done in the past and you think about what's possible in the next couple of years, it's almost unimaginable that, you know, they wouldn't be able to create something like this.

不过，就算他们想，明天也未必能立刻做出这样的东西。

Probably they they wouldn't be able to do that, you know, tomorrow if they wanted to.

我反复思考的一个大问题是：对这些大型语言模型公司来说，什么才是最合算的商业模式？

The big question that I always come back to and that for now I haven't found an answer to is what makes the most economic sense for those large LLM providers?

我毫不怀疑，如果Cloud真想做到，他们一定能办到——其他大厂也是一样。

I have no doubt again that Cloud could achieve this if they wanted to and that, you know, it's the same for all the other LLM providers.

举个例子吧，就像亚马逊如果决定砸十倍于MercadoLibre和Shopee的钱，完全可以统治巴西的电商市场。

But, you know, to give you an example, just like Amazon could dominate Brazilian e commerce if they decided to outspend MercadoLibre and Shopee by, let's say, a factor of 10.

问题是，如果他们这么做，会放弃多少高回报的项目。

The question is, how much of these higher ROI projects would they leave on the table if they do that.

你完全可以自己做所有事情。

And you can do everything on your own.

这正是资本主义给我们的一课。

You know, that's one of the lessons of capitalism.

我猜，像Claude这样的大型大模型公司，目前更愿意做那种隐藏在Base44或Lovable这类工具背后的收费通道。

And I assume that it's more profitable for these big LLM providers like Claude right now to be this sort of tollbooth business that works in the background of tools like Base44 or Lovable.

只要还没有哪个大模型明显优于其他所有模型，它们就很难对Base44这类公司施加太大压力，至少我是这么认为的。

And as long as there's not one LLM that's better than all the others by a white margin, they can't really pressure companies like Base44 too much on the margin side either, at least that's what I think.

同时，它们也不太可能轻易去跟每一个相关工具正面竞争。

And at the same time, they can also not easily compete with every somewhat related tool out there.

但话说回来，论经济合理性，Claude或Gemini更适合当Base44这样的公司的底层支撑——当然，我不是在玩文字游戏。

But again, the argument is that it makes more economic sense for Claude or Gemini to be this sort of base for a company like Base44, no pun intended.

如果这种情况变了，那这就是最坏的情况了。

And if that changes, that's the bear case right there.

咱们先回到核心业务上，稍微说一下。

So let's get back to the core business for a second.

如果任何人只要有AI订阅，甚至只是用Base44，就能比注册Wix还快地建好一个网站，

And if anyone with an AI subscription or even just Base44 can spin up a website faster than they can sign up for Wix.

那是不是意味着，新来的客户根本不需要Wix了？

Doesn't that almost mean the marginal new customer wouldn't need Wix at all?

对吧？

Right?

那些还没被Wix的支付、CRM和邮件营销这些功能绑住的用户，可能根本就不会接触到这些环节。

The one thing that isn't yet entrenched in the Wix ecosystem with Wix payments and CRM and email marketing, they may never even reach those touch points.

所以我觉得，Wix业务的一个潜在风险是，它的平台对现有客户确实有粘性，但未来可能再也拉不进新用户进来了。

So I think a potential risk is that core of Wix's business is a sticky platform for maybe existing customers, but won't be able to funnel any additional customers into that ecosystem in the future.

往后想再获取新客户，难度肯定会比过去大得多。

There's no getting around the fact that it will be much harder to acquire customers going forward than it has been in the past.

就算我们假设Wix依然是个有用的工具，AI或其他工具也没明显更胜一筹，但竞争实在太激烈了，获客成本肯定比过去高不少。

And even if we assume that Wix is still a helpful tool and LLMs or other tools aren't significantly better, there's just so much more competition that the customer acquisition costs would certainly go up compared to where they've been in the past.

而且现在人人都在谈AI，我觉得人们会越来越难选择非原生AI的工具，毕竟你会觉得，自己用的不是最新的技术，产品体验肯定也跟不上。

Also, you know, with everyone talking about AI, I think it will be much harder for people to choose a tool that is not AI native because you, to some extent, feel like you don't have the newest tool and just don't get the best product because you don't work with the most up to date tech.

不过话说回来，Wix其实也早就整合了AI功能。

Although, again, Wix has obviously also integrated AI as well.

你看看他们的广告，几乎都在强调：Wix同样支持AI。

And if you would look at any of their ads, obviously, they are talking mostly about, hey, Wix is also integrating AI.

想用AI建网站？那就选Wix。

If you wanna build a website with AI, Wix is the place to be.

但另一个问题是，那些AI编程工具迟早也会逐步提供Wix现在提供的后端功能。

Another problem though is that the vibecoding tools will add most of the back end features that Wix offers over time as well.

所以你甚至没法说，那些更认真的用户——比如中小型企业——还会因为后端功能继续选择Wix。

So you likely can't even argue that the more serious users, small and medium businesses, for example, will still go to Wix for the back end stuff.

这整个领域已经变得高度同质化了。

It's just a hugely commoditized space.

咱们得现实一点。

Let's be real here.

比如Lovable，现在已经接入了Stripe支付，其实这事儿也没多难。

And Lovable, for example, kind of showed you that they have integrated Stripe by now for payments and, you know, not a huge burden to do that.

管理层在财报电话会上谈后端，总说得像什么巨大的竞争优势似的。

And when management talks about the back end in earnings calls, it always sounds like it's, you know, this huge competitive advantage.

但说实话，竞争对手想复制这些功能，根本花不了多少功夫。

But in reality, it just doesn't take much for competitors to, you know, just copy these features.

换个积极的角度说，Wix在营销方面确实非常出色。

To bring up a more positive point here, it seems as if Wix is incredibly good at marketing.

他们每花一美元做营销，接下来两三年就能收回好几倍的回报。

And for every dollar they put into marketing, they generate multiples of that in the next two to three years.

投资回收期甚至不到一年。

And so the payback time is less than a year.

他们还专门花钱让大语言模型在回答‘从零开始建网站该选什么工具’这类问题时推荐自己。

And one thing they do is actually pay LLMs to show up in the answers when you ask them, you know, what's the best tool to build a website from scratch with?

我亲自试过这招。

And so I actually tried that myself.

我问ChatGPT，如果我想为一个新推出的瑜伽时尚品牌建网站，跟我们投资的Lululemon竞争，该用什么工具。

I asked ChatGPT what tool I should use when I wanna build a website for, let's say a new yoga fashion brand that's gonna compete with our portfolio holding Lululemon.

我故意没用任何编程技能，它第一个推荐的就是Wix。

I tried to do so without any coding skills and its first recommendation was Wix.

这挺有意思，因为在此之前我根本没听说过这事。

It's interesting because before I heard about that,

我压根不知道还能花钱让大模型出现在搜索结果里。

I didn't even know that you could already pay LLMs to show up in the results.

我以为这还只是计划中的事，没想到现在就已经实现了。

I thought that's something that's planned, but I didn't know it's actually already out there.

不过顺便说一句，你得明确说你不会编程，不然的话——这也反映出这个领域的竞争有多激烈，我第一次搜出来的结果居然是Shopify。

As a side note though, you really have to type in that you have no coding skills Otherwise, and that kind of shows you the competition in that sector, the first result I got was Shopify.

所以你看，这说明未来想成为建站工具的首选，可能不仅难度大，还得花大价钱做广告才能脱颖而出。

So, you know, that says something about how difficult it will be also in the future and also maybe how much you have to spend in advertising going forward to still show up as the main tool for bidding a website.

我本来不想扫自己的兴，但要是不说出来，那也太不诚实了。

Generally, I don't wanna bring down my own case here, but it would just be intellectually dishonest for me not to say it.

所以这个领域的竞争从未如此激烈，根本不存在可持续的竞争优势。

So the competition in this space has never been more intense, and there's no sustainable competitive advantage.

我其实也没太纠结于这一点。

And I only focus so much on this.

我跟团队成员也经常聊这个话题。

And once again, I talk to members about this.

当你深入研究一家公司，听CEO讲得太多时，很容易就被他们的叙事带偏了。

Is that when you deep dive into a company and you listen to the CEO so much, it's so easy to get lost in the narrative.

总觉得他们老在强调后台有多厉害。

And to kind of feel like, hey, you know, they talk so much about the back end.

没想到把这些工具整合起来居然这么难，产品粘性也比想象中高得多。

Apparently, it's way harder than I thought to integrate all of these tools, and it's a way stickier product than it is.

其实没那么回事。

It's not.

你只要看看竞争对手，他们用的工具都差不多。

You just look at the competition, and they're all integrating the same tools.

你知道，如果你用了好几年Wix做网站，根本不太可能换平台。

You know, obviously, if you have a website with Wix for years, you're just unlikely to change that.

所以这产品黏性挺强的。

So it's a sticky product.

但总的来说，没有绝对的垄断，换平台的成本也很低。

But there is no mode in general, and the switching costs are low.

所以，今天这个案例的假设是，像Base44和Wix这样的工具，最终会有多家胜出。

So, you know, the assumption with today's case is that there will be more than one winner for tools like Base 44 and also for tools like Wix.

尽管现有的忠实用户群能为Base44提供稳定的现金流，反过来也让它成为更主流的AI原生建站平台之一。

Though it's, you know, current sticky customer base can be a cash engine to support Base 44, which then also in turn becomes one of the more dominant AI native web builders.

而这里最大的优势，他们自己也提到过，就是Wix能为Base44带来的渠道资源。

And, you know, the perhaps biggest advantage here, and they also talk about that, is the distribution that Wix can offer Base 44.

如果把三亿注册用户和六百万付费订阅加在一起，这简直是为Base44提供了海量的交叉推广机会。

If you combine 300,000,000 registered users and over 6,000,000 paid subs, it's just a lot of cross promoting opportunity for Base forty four.

Base44的创始人曼努埃尔·库尼亚说，这正是这笔交易最核心的原因。

And the founder of Base forty four, Manuel Cunha, said this was basically the main reason for the deal.

所以，到2026年，AI编程工具最大的优势就是资金支持和渠道资源。

So the biggest advantage for an AI vibecoding tool right now in 2026 is financial backing and distribution.

而Wix恰好能提供这两样东西。

And Wix, fortunately, can offer both.

再回头看看用户分群的数据，我们明显看到，随着时间推移，各用户群的盈利能力越来越强。

And to get back to the cohort data once more, we clearly see how much more profitable cohorts become over time.

比如2010年第一季度的用户群，是十六年前注册的，到现在累计贡献了大约五千万美元的收入。

So the q one twenty ten cohort, customers Wix signed up sixteen years ago, has generated roughly $50,000,000 in cumulative bookings.

而2015年第一季度的用户群，收入大概是前者的五倍。

The q one cohort of 2015 has generated roughly five times that.

这其实也反映了我们一直以来看到的趋势。

And that's basically the trend that you've seen over time as well.

如果AI真的在侵蚀用户基础，尤其是那些在AI热潮期间新增的近期用户群，那我们本该看到他们相对于老用户群的表现明显下滑。

And if AI were eroding the customer base, so the more recent cohorts, the ones basically acquired during the AI hype cycle, I think you should see a trend of deterioration relative to the older ones.

但实际情况完全不是这样。

But that's clearly not what you see.

我的意思是，2025年第一季度的用户群体，实际上是在所有新冠疫情期间的用户群体中表现最强的，毕竟那时候人人都待在家里，带来了巨大的推动。

I mean, the q one twenty twenty five cohort is actually the strongest one after all of the COVID cohorts, which obviously and that was a huge tailwind because everybody's staying at home.

当时很多十六岁的年轻人，又有创业想法的，都觉得得自己建个网站，卖点工具。

Everybody who is also 16 years old and has some entrepreneurial spirit thought they would have to build a website and sell some tools.

所以那段时间对Wix来说确实是好时机。

So, you that was obviously a good time for Wix.

这也是为什么疫情结束后股价跌得那么厉害，不过这是题外话。

Also in part why the stock suffered so much after COVID, but that's a side note.

你之前跟我提过一个功能，听起来挺有意思的，就是Wix正在努力让网页内容更容易被智能代理识别。

One feature you told me about that sounded pretty cool was that Wix is actively working on making pages readable for agents.

在未来，可能我自己不会去预约瑜伽课了，而是让智能代理帮我安排，这时候网站对代理来说必须足够友好、容易访问。

And so in a future where I might not be booking yoga class appointments myself, but I'm I'm letting an agent book it, then it's really important for that website to be easily accessible to agents.

虽然网页对代理和对我的展示内容应该是一样的，但代理浏览网站的方式跟我们普通人不一样。

And so while they should look and care for the same things that I would care about, agents do browse websites differently.

所以当我让代理帮我找附近评价好的瑜伽教练，并预约周六上午的课程时，AI必须能准确识别出合适的商家。

So when I tell my agent to find a yoga instructor in my neighborhood with good reviews and book an appointment for Saturday morning, It's important that the AI finds the right type of business.

所以它能理解我真正需要什么，还能访问我的日历，直接帮我预约。

So it has an idea of what I'm really truly looking for and has access to my calendar and is able to then book the appointment.

听起来挺简单，但为人类设计的网站，AI用起来往往没那么顺手。

And all that sounds easy, but websites that are built for humans are not necessarily easy to navigate for AIs.

这大概是最直白的解释了。

That's maybe the simplest explanation to give.

现在Wix已经解决了这个问题，让他们的网站能被大语言模型识别和抓取，这样AI就能轻松浏览并完成操作了。

And so Wix has now addressed that problem and made its websites indexable by LLMs, which means they're set up in a way that these AI models, LLMs, can easily browse it and act on their websites.

这本质上是SEO（搜索引擎优化）的另一个发力点。

It's basically another lever to pull in terms of SEO, Search engine optimization.

这对使用Wix建站的人来说特别重要，因为这正是Wix一体化服务的核心部分。

That's one of the things that matters pretty much a lot for the people who have Wix websites because that's part of this all in one package that you want from Wix.

你不仅要建网站、配齐后台工具，还得把SEO一并搞定。

You want to build a website, have all the back end tools, and also the SEO included.

这些功能，你靠自己用Claude随便搭个网站是得不到的。

And that's something you don't get by vibecoding something yourself with Claude.

但这也不是什么优势。

But it's also not an advantage.

我们今天讨论的其他建站平台都没法跟它比，因为你不能仅仅因为觉得自己有个更厉害的引擎或者更出色的工具，就认为这是一笔值得投的钱。

That's pretty much everything that we talk about today over any other website builder because, you know, it's not an investment you can make based on the idea that you have this superior engine, for example, or superior tool that will outperform competitors.

正因如此，它的股价才可能突然开始加速上涨，因为你确实拥有明显更好的利润率和财务表现。

And that's why the stock can suddenly start compounding because you're just, you know, having significantly better margins or or financials.

所以总结一下，你得到的是一个客户黏性强、利润率依然极高，同时也是市场上增长最快的AI工具之一的公司。

So what you get, to kind of summarize here, is a business that has sticky customers, exceptional margins still, and also one of the fastest growing AI tools in the market.

而这一切，目前的股价却只相当于现金流的四到五倍。

And all of that is trading at just four to five times cash flows.

既然说到这儿，咱们不妨花点时间聊聊这家公司的财务质量。

Well, considering that, let's take a moment to talk about the financial quality of the business.

我得说实话，看到这家公司的利润率和盈利能力时，我真的很意外。

Because I have to admit, I was surprised when I saw the margin profile and profitability of this business.

首先值得指出的是，收入增长正在加快，而不是像我之前说的那样放缓。

The first thing to point out is that revenue growth is accelerating instead of decelerating, as I talked about before.

但也没多到哪儿去。

And it's not you know, a lot.

我们从大约百分之十二点五增长到了现在的百分之十四。

We went from somewhere like 12 and a half percent to 14% now.

自由现金流利润率的提升则更为显著，从2022年的2%飙升到了如今的30%。

A more significant inflection can certainly be seen in the free cash flow margins, which went from 2% in 2022 to 30% today.

2022年利润率偏低，主要原因是疫情期间过度招聘。

And one reason for the bad margins in 2022 was mainly over hiring during COVID.

这部分业务的表现其实相当不错。

Again, like, this was a part of the business where it went pretty well.

当时大家都以为这种势头还能再持续两三年。

And obviously, everybody thought this would go on for a couple more years.

管理层显然也是这么想的。

And the management team apparently did so as well.

如今，Wix的员工人数已经超过五千人。

Wix has over 5,000 employees by now.

如果未来我们能进一步控制成本，我一点都不意外看到利润率继续提升，而这显然意味着要裁掉一部分这五千名员工。

And I wouldn't be surprised if we see further margin improvement over time by saving more costs, which obviously also means letting go of some of those 5,000 employees.

但同时，运营杠杆的作用也很明显。

But there was also significant operating leverage.

过去两年，通过增加后端服务，平台的抽成率提升，使业务解决方案的利润率提高了六个百分点。

So the take rate expansion through more back end services increased the business solution margins by six percentage points in the last two years.

从绝对金额来看，过去三年公司的自由现金流增长了整整19倍。

And in dollar terms, that actually means that free cash flow has 19x in the last three years.

你也可以用‘40法则’来评估，这是大家分析SaaS公司时常用的参考框架。

So you can also use the rule of 40 framework, which is something that you often try to put companies into perspective, especially when you talk about these SaaS companies.

一般来说，收入增长率加上自由现金流利润率，加起来应该超过40。

So revenue growth plus free cash flow margin should be above the number of 40.

目前Wix的数字是43%，他们目标是到2026年达到45。

And Wix actually hits 43% right now, and they're aiming for the rule of 45 by 2026.

所以从财务表现来看，你完全可以说Wix属于一线SaaS公司，尽管在商业模式上可能还不完全一样。

So you can say that, you know, this is a tier one SaaS profile, at least in terms of the financials, perhaps not in terms of the mode.

再说一遍，和现在许多其他软件公司一样， downside 也在于股票薪酬。

And again, you know, the downside, as with so many of the other software companies right now, is also stock based comp.

股票薪酬每年大约是两亿四千万美元，精确来说就是这个数。

So stock based comp is roughly a quarter billion, $240,000,000 to be exact.

当然，这是按年计算的。

And that's on an annualized basis, of course.

如果把股票薪酬调整掉，自由现金流就接近三亿六千万美元，相当于营收的18%左右。

So SBC adjusted free cash flow lens closer to $360,000,000 or about, you know, an 18% margin on revenue.

那Base44的拖累呢？

So what about the drag from Base forty four?

你之前提到它拉低了合并后的整体数据。

Because you mentioned earlier that it has been pulling the consolidated numbers down.

如果Base44继续扩张，同时逐步实现盈利，我们的利润率会不会有更大的提升空间？

So could we see even more potential in terms of margins when Base forty four continues to scale and hopefully becomes more profitable along the way?

首先，影响来自收购本身以及随之而来的各项支出。

The first impact is just, you know, the acquisition itself and the expenses that came with that.

所以Wix是在2025年年中才再次收购了Base44。

So Wix only acquired Base forty four again in mid twenty twenty five.

所以这桩交易还很新，这也解释了为什么研发费用在2025年突然飙升，之前整整三年都基本持平。

So it's still a recent deal, is also why R and D suddenly jumped in 2025 after basically three years of being more or less flat.

也许我们不妨多讲讲Base44的背景，包括它的创立故事和整个收购过程。

And perhaps it makes sense to just generally give some more background on Base44 and, you know, the founding story and the entire acquisition process.

我们之前简单聊过它的运作方式，但我觉得这些背景信息对听众来说也很重要。

We talked a bit about how it works and how it functions, but I think this kind of gives background that's also important for the listener.

创始人是毛罗·所罗门，一位以色列工程师，创办Base44之前，他曾经打造过一家获得风投支持的数据公司。

So the founder, again, is Mauro Shlomo, and he's an Israeli engineer who built a venture backed data company before he founded Base44.

据他自己说，离开那家公司时，他已经对风投那一套玩法感到精疲力尽了。

And by his own account, he was somewhat burned out on the VC playbook by the time he stepped away.

他的妻子当时经营着一家小企业。

And his wife apparently ran a small business.

应该不是瑜伽馆。

I don't think it's yoga.

不知怎么的，今天我们总绕不开瑜伽生意这个话题。

For some reason, we always talk about the yoga business today.

我觉得根本不是那回事。

I don't think it was that.

但他当时正好有空，就想干脆帮她一把。

But since he had some free time on his hands, he thought why not help her out a bit.

于是他摆弄起了软件——这本来就是他的老本行，帮她整理日程和客户信息。

So he was, you know, tinkering with software, which is kind of what he does, to help her manage her schedule and customer database.

像他这种懂技术的人，自然想去试试那些新出的AI原生工具。

And like every tech savvy guy, he decided to check out some of these new AI native tools to do so.

我记得他用了Lovable和Replete，这两个都是Base44的竞争对手。

So I think he used Lovable and Replete, two of the competitors for Base 44.

结果用起来挺闹心的，根本没做到他们宣传的那样——对非技术人员友好。

And he kind of found them frustrating to use and not really as accessible to non developers as they should be because, you know, that's their primary marketing claim.

既然他骨子里还是个创业者，就决定补上这个空缺，自己动手做了Base44。

And obviously, with the founder DNA still in him, he decided that gap in the market was worth filling and he built Base44.

他完全是自筹资金做的。

He basically bootstrapped it.

他自己掏钱支付大模型的推理费用，然后开始在LinkedIn上公开更新开发进展。

So he paid LLM inference costs out of his own pocket, and then he started posting build in public updates basically on LinkedIn.

那篇帖子很快就火了。

And the post pretty much went viral.

短短三周内，Base44就拥有了十万用户。

And within three weeks, Base 44 had 10,000 users.

这已经算是相当成功了，我觉得。

And that's already, you know, quite a success, I would say.

但仅仅十二周后，用户数就涨到了十五万，收入也达到了大约一百万美元。

But only twelve weeks later, it was a 150,000 subs and roughly $1,000,000 in AIR.

要知道，当时这个领域已经相当拥挤，而他们一分钱都没花在营销上，能取得这样的成绩，简直不可思议。

And, you know, considering that there wasn't a single dollar spent on marketing in what even at that time was already a pretty competitive field, I think that's pretty insane result.

这已经很不错了。

That's not too shabby.

这让我重新思考了LinkedIn的效果。

It makes me rethink the effectiveness of LinkedIn.

我们之前在做微软那期节目时，对LinkedIn挺悲观的，因为用他们的高级订阅做广告推广几乎没成效。

I we were pretty negative about it on our Microsoft episode after having very little success in our attempt to do some advertising prospecting via LinkedIn's premium subscriptions.

是的，我觉得最终还是自然流量在这类事情上更管用。

Yeah, I think organic traffic in the end might work out a bit better for that.

而且，宣传一个新潮的AI产品，跟在LinkedIn上找广告客户，完全是两码事。

Also it's somewhat of a different thing to talk about a new flashy AI product compared to finding some advertisers on LinkedIn.

不过说到底，这个增长势头还是引起了Wix的注意。

You know, anyway, I mean, that trajectory basically caught Wix's attention.

后来，这两家总部都在特拉维夫的公司就碰到了一起。

And then both companies, which are based in Tel Aviv, kind of found together.

我听说，两位创始人其实早就在特拉维夫的创业圈里认识了。

And I believe also the founders, they kind of knew each other through the local tax scene in Tel Aviv.

最终Wix主动联系了他们，交易在2025年完成了。

And Wix eventually reached out, and they closed the deal in 2025.

这次收购 upfront 现金支付了大约八千万美元，外加业绩对赌，如果达到某些年度经常性收入目标，还能继续拿到钱，预计到2029年为止。

Again, about $80,000,000 upfront in cash, plus earn outs running through, I think, 2029 in case they hit certain ARR targets.

交易达成时，Base44 的年度经常性收入大约是三百万美元。

And at the time of the deal, Base44 was at roughly $3,000,000 in ARR.

咱们先插个广告，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Sitting on the sidelines is, of course, not an option.

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Automating routine tasks, surfacing actionable insights, and helping you cut costs and make fast, confident decisions.

从软件和IT服务，到医疗、设备制造、金融服务，还有众多其他优秀的美国产业，NetSuite都能为你提供量身定制的解决方案。

From software and IT services to health care, equipment manufacturing, financial services, and many other great American industries, Netsuite delivers a customized solution for your business.

这可不是后期加装的工具。

This is not a bolted on tool.

它是直接融入你企业运营系统的智能技术。

It's AI built into the system that runs your business.

如果我当初需要这样的产品，我一定会选它。

And if I had needed this product, it is exactly what I'd use.

如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，去 netsuite.com/tip 免费领取他们的AI实用指南，帮你彻底搞懂人工智能。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, demystifying AI at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在 netsuite.com/tip 上可以免费获取。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip.

网址是 netsuite.com/tip。

That's netsuite.com/tip.

在我加入这个投资者播客之前，各种假设都在我脑子里打转。

Before I joined the investors podcast, every what if you can imagine was running through my head.

比如，我是不是不适合这个听众群体？

What if I'm not the right fit for this audience?

万一我在镜头前卡壳了怎么办？

What if I freeze up on camera?

万一我没法继续

What if I can't keep

跟上大家在这里期望的分析水平呢？

up with the level of analysis people here expect?

不过，赌自己一把，结果证明是我做过最棒的决定之一。

Well, betting on myself anyways turned out to be one of the best decisions I've ever made.

我跟你说，要是当初有个人像Shopify之于商家那样站在我这边，那段起步的日子肯定会轻松多了。

And I'll tell you, those early days would have been a lot less stressful with a partner in my corner the way Shopify is for the businesses that work with them.

Shopify是全球数百万商家背后的电商平台，占美国全部电商交易的百分之十。

Shopify is the e commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US.

从Allbirds、Gymshark这样的知名品牌，到刚起步的小店，都在用它。

From household names like Allbirds and Gymshark to brands just getting off the ground.

你可以从他们的设计工作室开始，直接使用上百个现成模板，轻松打造一个符合你品牌调性的精美网店，完全不需要设计经验。

You get started with their design studio, hundreds of ready to use templates that help you build a beautiful online store that actually matches your brand with no design background required.

它还内置了大量AI工具，帮你处理那些你根本没意识到要做的琐事——写产品描述、拟标题，甚至优化产品图片。

It's also packed with AI tools that handle the work you didn't realize you'd have to do, writing product descriptions, headlines, even enhancing your product photography.

要是遇到困难怎么办？

And what if you get stuck?

别担心，他们有屡获殊荣的客服团队，随时帮你一步步解决，费用才24.07美元。

Well, is around $24.07 with award winning customer support to walk you through it.

是时候把那些‘万一’变成现实了，现在就用Shopify吧。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

前往 shopify.com/tip 注册，每月仅需一美元试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial at shopify.com/tip.

访问 shopify.com/tip。

Go to shopify.com/tip.

就是 shopify.com/tip。

That's shopify.com/tip.

好了，我们继续节目。

All right, back to the show.

哦，既然这如今成了论点中更重要的部分，我猜它增长得相当快。

Oh, since this has become a much bigger part of the thesis today, I expect it has grown quite fast.

确实如此。

It did, certainly.

你的意思是，花八千万美元收购一家年经常性收入三百万的公司，现在听起来可能很高，但仅仅一年后，这家公司的年经常性收入就涨到了一亿五千万。

I mean, if you pay $80,000,000 for a $3,000,000 in ARR, that might sound like a lot today, but just a year later, the company is making a $150,000,000 in ARR.

所以，Base四十四个体以及它和Wix的合作，核心优势主要在于渠道分发。

So, you know, the strength of Base forty four and its partnership with Wix, again, is mostly distribution.

举个例子，这看起来是怎样的？

So for example, how does that look?

Wix收购Base44后的第十二天，他们就买下了超级碗的广告时段。

Twelve days after Wix acquired Base forty four, they booked a Super Bowl ad.

我提到这个，是因为我们节目里每讲到一家有过或有过超级碗广告的公司，你都会提这一茬。

And I mentioned this because every company we cover on the show that has or had a Super Bowl ad, you bring it up every time.

所以我想，今天我也得跟上这个传统。

So I thought, you know, I have to do that today too.

作为一个平时不看超级碗的人，我知道，我其实不怎么看体育，但还是看了。

And as someone who, you know, doesn't watch the Super Bowl, I know, you know, I watch the world on sport, still do it.

而且足球确实更精彩。

And football is better.

这只是我个人的看法。

Just, you know, my two cents on that.

另外，我对中场秀也没什么兴趣。

And, you know, I'm also not into this halftime show thing.

我总是对这些广告的效果感到惊讶。

So I'm always surprised by the impact of those ads.

我查了YouTube，发现Base44的广告播放量快到五亿了。

But, I mean, I looked in YouTube and Base44's ad has almost 500,000,000 views on YouTube.

说实话，我也不太确定。

So I don't know.

我觉得，Wix和Base44在超级碗广告上花的两千万美元，确实值了。

I guess, you know, the $20,000,000 spent on the Super Bowl ads for both the Wix and Base44 was certainly worth it.

我觉得这笔钱花得挺值的。

No, it does sound like money well spent to me.

可惜我们投资的CoStar在homes.com的付费营销和超级碗广告上没这么好运。

It's too bad our portfolio holding CoStar hasn't had the same luck with paid marketing and Super Bowl ads for homes.com.

不过我也挺喜欢那个广告的。

Although I liked that spot too.

在你介绍之前我就在YouTube上看过，我觉得两个广告都不错。

Watched it before your pitch on YouTube and I think both ads were pretty good.

也许吧，你知道，现在AI看起来确实更炫一些，就像我之前说的。

Maybe, you know, it's a factor that AI might be a bit more flashy currently, as I said.

而且，不只是广告预算，Wix在全球拥有超过三亿用户，这可以说是软件行业里最高效的中小企业营销引擎之一。

And, you know, beyond just the advertising budget, Wix has over 300,000,000 users globally, and, you know, that's one of the most efficient SMB focused marketing engines in software.

所以，这里还有一个巨大的交叉推广机会，显然帮助Base44比它独自发展时增长快得多。

So there's, again, this huge cross promoting opportunity that certainly helped Base forty four to grow significantly faster than it could have on its own.

当然，资金支持也很重要。

And the financial backing obviously matters too.

你看那些竞争对手，比如Lovable、Bold、Replete，它们都是独立的无代码公司。

I mean, if you look at these competitors like Lovable, like Bold, like Replete, all of those are stand alone vibecoding companies.

它们基本上每九到十二个月就得融资一次，因为烧钱太快，不继续投钱就很难维持快速增长。

And they basically have to raise capital, I think it's like nine to twelve months, because they're burning cash so quickly that they need more cash to keep growing relatively quickly.

但Base44现在归Wix旗下，就没有这种压力了，毕竟Wix每年能产生六亿美元的自由现金流，直接帮Base44撑着。

And Base44, now being under Wix's umbrella, doesn't have that pressure since, you know, Wix generates these $600,000,000 in free cash flow annually to help boost Base44.

说到烧钱，那这里的单用户经济效益到底怎么样？

Speaking about burning money, what are the unit economics actually look like here?

因为Base44的利润率一直严重为负，对吧？

Because Base44 is running deeply negative margins forever, right?

这当然会影响Wix作为看似印钞机式业务的吸引力。

Of course that changes the attractiveness of Wix as this seemingly cash printing machine type business.

据管理团队称，Base44的付费用户毛利已经转正，并且未来还会进一步提升。

Well, according to the management team, Base44's paying user gross margin is already positive and is expected to grow much more in the future.

我认为主要原因在于AI推理成本在初期集中投入。

I think the main reason is that AI inference costs are heavily front loaded.

也就是说，用户在搭建阶段会频繁使用，但一旦工具或网站建好，进入维护期后使用频率就大幅下降。

So that means that users generate a lot of prompts during the build phase, then fewer during maintenance, when basically a tool or your website is already set up.

所以，成熟用户群体的运营成本远低于新用户。

So mature cohorts are dramatically cheaper to serve than the new ones.

但显然，Base44从每个用户那里赚的钱没变，所以合并报表的利润率一开始看起来比实际业务情况要差。

But obviously, they're making the same amount of money for Base forty four, which is why the consolidated margins look worse in the beginning than the underlying economics would actually suggest.

另外还提到，自收购以来，Base44的LLM成本下降了约30%，一部分是由于模型供应商之间的竞争，另一部分则是内部路由优化——说白了，就是简单的问题交给算力较低、成本更低的模型处理。

There was also a comment that LLM costs to Base forty four are down about 30% since the acquisition, partly from model provider competition and partly from what's called internal routing optimization, which is a complete way of saying that easy to handle prompts are given to a less powerful and thus cheaper model.

这个我也不确定。

So I don't know.

比如说，我想改一下logo的颜色或者位置。

Let's say I want to change the color or positioning of a logo.

这种事根本用不着Claude最新的深度推理模型。

I don't need Claude's latest deep thinking model to do that.

用任何一个开源模型就能轻松搞定，而且显然成本也比用Claude低得多。

That could easily be handled by one of the open source models, which obviously in turn would also be cheaper to use than Claude.

但我们没有具体的数据。

But we don't have any specific numbers.

我看过不少访谈，包括Shlomo和像Lovable这样的竞争对手创始人，他们都没透露过具体付给模型提供商多少钱。

You know, in the interviews I watched both with Shlomo and also with the other founders of the competitors like Lovable, for example, none of them is actually giving you the numbers on how much they pay the model providers.

从长期经济角度看，Wix的CFO表示，他预计Base44的运营和自由现金流利润率最终会接近Wix核心业务的水平。

And I don't In terms of long term economics, Wix's CFO said that he would expect Base44 to converge on operating and free cash flow margins similar to the Wix Core in the long term.

也就是说，长期来看，自由现金流利润率大概能到30%左右。

And that would basically mean, you know, roughly a 30% free cash flow margin eventually.

他还提到，2027年会是利润率的一个关键转折点。

And I think he mentioned that 2027 is supposed to be this inflection point for margin.

所以显然，到那时候还达不到30%。

So obviously, they don't reach 30% by then.

但至少应该明显扭亏为盈了。

They should be more meaningfully positive.

让我试着总结一下，如果我们把Wix和Base44的组合纳入投资组合，我们到底是在买什么。

Oh, let me just take a shot at summarizing how I understand what we would actually be buying if we were to add this Wix with Base44 combination to our portfolio.

核心想法是，Base44是一个具有不对称机会的项目，它是目前增长最快的无代码工具，背后有Wix提供的渠道优势和资本支持。

And so the idea is that you have this asymmetric bet with Base44, which is fastest growing vibe coding tool out there backed by structural distribution and, let's say, capital advantages from Wix.

这跟Base44是不是最顶尖的产品没关系，因为它的模式根本没法被复制。

And so it's not about Base44 being the best product, that's just impossible to copy though.

你为这个Wix加Base44的组合支付的价格，其实等于默认Base44一文不值。

The price you're paying for this Wix Base44 combination implies that Base44 is worth basically nothing.

而按照当前的市场估值，Wix本身的价值也就只有自由现金流的三到五倍。

And Wix itself would only be worth three to five times free cash flows at the current market valuation.

当然，这跟我们之前提到的内在价值组合持仓Exer不一样，那种情况是公司的实际资产价值高于市值。

So of course, this is not a case similar to our Intrinsic Value Portfolio Holding Exer that we mentioned earlier, where the actual asset value of the firm is higher than the market cap.

但如果一家公司每年经调整后的现金流在三亿到四亿美元之间，还有一十亿美元现金，那当前24亿美元的市值就非常合理了。

But if you have a company that is generating cash flows in the range of 300,000,000 to $400,000,000 a year after adjusting for stock based compensation and has a billion dollars in cash, then a market capitalization of $2,400,000,000 seems very, very reasonable.

而且，你还能白得Base44未来所有的潜在增长空间，对吧？

And then you get all this potential upside of Base44 for free, right?

所以，这就是整个逻辑的脉络。

And so that's sort of the logic of the picture.

说得太到位了。

I couldn't have said it better.

还有一点值得注意，Base44所有公开的可比公司，估值都是几十亿美元起步。

And it's also worth noting that all of Base44's public comparables are trading at multi billion dollar valuation.

比如Lovable估值66亿美元，Replete估值90亿美元，Cursor虽然发展得更早一些，估值也接近300亿美元。

So Lovable is valued at $6,600,000,000 Replete is valued at $9,000,000,000 and Cursor, which to be fair is a lot further in its journey, is valued at almost $30,000,000,000.

不过要是问我个人意见，这些公司很可能被高估了，我不会在当前价位买入任何一家。

Now if you ask me, those companies are very likely to be overvalued, so I wouldn't buy any of them at current prices.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我的意思是，要是能以几乎零成本拿到Base44的资产，这听起来倒不像是

I mean, getting one of them in Base 44 for basically free for, like, $0, that doesn't sound like

一笔糟糕的交易。

the worst deal to me.

接下来我觉得我们该聊聊资本配置的问题。

The last big thing I think we should walk through here is capital allocation.

因为你之前告诉我，过去十二个月里，管理层做了一些看起来有点奇怪的事。

Because you told me that the management team has done some things in the last twelve months that might seem a little bit odd.

是的。

Yeah.

那我们先说说积极的一面。

So let's start with the positive things first.

不过，根据最近的财报来看，这些做法可能也没那么聪明了。

Although you can even argue that it doesn't look as smart anymore after the recent earnings report.

但在2025年底，Wix的董事会批准了一项20亿美元的股票回购计划。

But in late twenty twenty five, Wix's board authorized a $2,000,000,000 share repurchase program.

这么说吧，当时Wix的市值大约是40亿美元。

And, you know, to put that into context, Wix had a market cap of about $4,000,000,000 at the time.

也就是说，这个回购授权相当于要买下公司近一半的股份。

So this was basically a buyback authorization for roughly half the company.

相信听众们现在也都知道，我们特别喜欢股票回购。

And as listeners might know by now, we love buybacks a lot.

你最近还发给我一张图表，列出了那些回购最积极的公司。

You actually sent me a chart recently that showed some of the biggest share cannibals.

挺有意思的是，我们自己也持有了不少这类公司。

And it's kind of funny because we own quite a lot of them.

但即便在这些公司里，也没有哪家像Wix这样，回购高达50%的股份。

And even among them, no company is buying back 50% of its shares.

我还挺欣赏的一点是，他们通过荷兰式拍卖来执行回购，这我们也熟悉，对吧？

So another thing I liked is that they executed these buybacks via Dutch auction, which is also something that we know, right?

我们确实了解这种荷兰式要约收购，我再提一次，是来自Exer的例子。

We do know about these Dutch tender auctions from, and I'll bring it up again, Exer.

不过我再解释一下这个机制，为什么我们觉得它比直接在公开市场回购股票更优。

But just to explain the concept once more and why we like it more than the approach of just doing open market purchases for share re buybacks.

它的运作方式是，股东提交自己愿意卖回给公司的股价。

The way it works is that shareholders submit the price at which they would be willing to sell their shares back to the company.

然后公司可以确定一个最低的成交价，刚好能买回计划数量的股票。

The company then gets to set basically the lowest clearing price that fills the buyback.

所有出价等于或低于这个价格的股东，都会按这个统一价格成交。

So everyone who bid at or below that price gets the clearing price.

这样一来，公司通常能以比公开市场更低的成本完成回购，避免了自己跟自己竞价推高价格的情况。

And so that ends up being cheaper typically for the company more often than just buying in the open market where you can be bidding against yourself and pushing the price up.

在Wix的案例中，大约1750万股被注销，总金额约16亿美元，相当于一次性回购了流通股的30%。

In Wix case, about 17,500,000 shares were retired for approximately $1,600,000,000 and that's roughly 30% of the float in a single transaction.

顺便说一句，大多数网站还没更新Wix的股本数据，所以你看到的市值和估值指标往往偏高，跟我们在这期里说的实际数字对不上。

By the way, most sites haven't yet updated Wix's share count, which is often why you see a higher market cap and also more expensive valuation metrics than the actuals and what we mentioned here in this episode.

所以这一点你得留意。

So you should pay attention there.

如果你在像 Fiscal AI 这样的网站上，等消息公布后，他们应该已经更新了。

If you're on, you know, any site like Fiscal AI, for example, probably when this comes out, they they should have updated it.

不过问题来了，这正是我开头提到的，最近股价暴跌超过 30% 后，再以 92 美元的价格回购股票，看起来就没那么明智了。

Now the only problem is, and that's what I alluded to in the beginning, is that, you know, after the massive drop of over 30% recently, buying back shares at $92, which has been the price, doesn't seem that smart anymore.

而今天，股价已经跌到了 55 美元。

And, you know, as of today, the stock is trading at $55.

所以同样的回购计划，如果推迟十周再执行，本来能买回公司 50% 到 60% 的股份，而不是 30%。

So the same buyback, just ten weeks later, would have brought back closer to 50 to 60% of the company instead of 30.

如果你还想看积极的一面，我觉得管理层当初认为股价在九十多美元被低估，才决定大手笔回购，这反而说明现在 55 美元的价格可能更划算。

So if you still wanna see the positives, I think the fact that the management saw the stock as being undervalued in the low nineties and basically committing this massive buyback program should be somewhat reassuring that at $55, you're getting an even better deal.

还有另一个关于资本配置的方面，我觉得我们得看看。

So there's one other aspect of this capital allocation picture I think we need to look at.

就在我们讨论的这段时间，Wix 还和一家叫 Durable Capital 的公司做了一笔私募。

And so around the same time of what we're discussing, Wix did a private placement with a firm named Durable Capital.

他们当时以92美元回购股票，却又以折扣价向Durable Capital发行新股。

So they were buying back shares at $92 but then issuing new shares at a discount to Durable Capital.

这在你看来是怎么算得通的？

How exactly does that add up in your mind?

是的，这个我没法给你一个完美的解释。

Yeah, feel I can't give you a perfect argument on that.

你记得我开头提到过的Durable Capital吗？就是Henry Allenbaum那家公司。

And you know, doable capital is who I mentioned, Henry Allenbaum, before in the beginning.

我之前说Robert Vinalis退出、Allenbaum进场，其实就是通过这种方式完成的。

So when I said that Robert Vinalis basically sold his stake and Allenbaum came in, that's basically the way that he did it.

简单说，他们向Durable Capital进行了2.5亿美元的私募，据他说，价格比市价低了大约5%，还附带了行权价高出25%的认股权证，并设有一年的锁定期。

So to summarize, there was a $250,000,000 private placement to durable capital, which he said at roughly a 5% discount to market with, you know, attach ones that struck at I think it was 25% premium and a one year lock up.

官方的说法是，Wix希望锁定一位长期的机构股东。

And the official explanation is that Wix wanted to lock in a long term institutional shareholder.

正如我所说，Henry Allenbaum管理的基金以耐心资本著称，专注于长期增长。

As I said, that the fund that Henry Allenbogman is managing is mostly known as patient capital with a long term growth orientation.

非官方的解读可能是，这更多是为了调整股东结构，而不是为了改善资产负债表。

The unofficial read is probably that this was about shareholder composition rather than the balance sheet.

毕竟维克公司并不缺钱，他们账上现金充裕，完全能应付那次股份回购。

Because it's not like Wix needed cash since, you know, they had plenty of cash on the balance sheet for the tender offer that they had.

所以请来艾伦博根，可能有助于让维克避开在估值压缩期间可能出现的短期激进投资者压力。

So bringing Ellenbogen on potentially insulates Wix from, you know, these short term activist pressure that might come up during a period of multiple compression.

对吧？

Right?

当股价跌得这么厉害时，确实有可能有激进投资者趁机进场，试图夺取公司控制权。

When the stock is going down that much, there's a chance that an activist is coming in and is trying to gain control over the company.

而且这也不算太糟，因为这次交易并没有造成严重的股权稀释。

And also, this is not a huge negative because it's not like this deal has been massively dilutive.

我觉得这次私募发行了大约四百万股，再加上认股权证可能带来的一百到两百万股，但那些权证看起来根本不会被行权。

I think it was about 4,000,000 shares from the placement, plus 1 to 2,000,000 potentially from the warrants, which don't look like they will ever exercise.

相比之下，通过回购注销的1750万股，数量要大得多。

And compared to that, the, you know, 17 and a half million shares that were retired through the buybacks, they're just significantly more.

所以算下来，总股本还是大幅减少了。

So if you net that out, the share count still came down dramatically.

但话说回来，明明以92美元的价格回购，同一个季度却又折价发行，这观感确实不好。

But, of course, you know, just the optics of buying at $92, then issuing at a discount in the same quarter.

再过十周，股价就跌到55美元了，这对管理层来说可真是够倒霉的。

And then also having the stock coming down to $55 just ten weeks later, I mean, that's a pretty bad luck for the management team.

我们聊了这么多股票的事。

We're talking a lot about the stock.

那债务呢？

What about the debt?

你提到公司有10亿美元现金，市值是24亿美元。

You mentioned 1,000,000,000 in cash at a $2,400,000,000 market cap.

如果没有债务，企业价值其实应该是14亿美元，对吧？

Without debt, the enterprise value would actually be $1,400,000,000 right?

把净现金减掉就行了。

You subtract out the net cash.

那时候，Wix 和 Base44 的股价都远低于一倍的 ARR，以及两到三倍的自由现金流。

And at that point, Wix and Base44 would trade way below one times ARR and two to three times free cash flow.

这可能是我见过的、盈利强劲且增长率超两位数的 SaaS 公司里，最低的估值了。

That might be the lowest price I've ever seen for a highly profitable SaaS business with double digit growth.

是的。

Yeah.

Wix 唯一的债务是大约 15 亿美元的零息可转换债券，转换价格远高于每股 200 美元。

The only debt that Wix has is about $1,500,000,000 in zero coupon convertible notes with conversion strikes well above $200 per share.

所以在 55 美元的股价下，这些可转债远远处于价外，几乎到了不可能被转股的地步。

So at $55, the convertibles are deeply out of the money, almost as far out of the money as possible.

所以我觉得，持有这些债券的经济成本基本上是零。

So I think the economic cost of carrying them is, you know, essentially zero.

而且 Wix 等于是白借了钱，因为这些可转债的票息几乎为零。

And Wix is borrowing money for free because also the coupon on those convertibles is near zero.

唯一的成本就是如果股价涨到四倍、可转债真的被转股，才会带来稀释。至于你，我不清楚你怎么想，但要是股价真能翻四倍，那点稀释我完全能接受。

So the only cost is dilution if the stock quadruples and the convertibles actually kick in, which I don't know about you, but if the stock is quadrupling, I think I could live with the dilution coming from that.

是的。

Yeah.

这至少也算是个高档问题了。

It would be a high class problem to have, to say the least.

那管理层持股情况呢？

How about insider ownership though?

当Wix的管理团队认为股价在90美元时严重被低估，而现在股价跌到了55美元左右，你自然会期待管理层个人持有大量股份，并且拼命买入股票，对吧？

When Wix's management team thought the stock was massively undervalued at $90 now we're sitting well below that at around $55 You would expect the management team to have a significant stake in the company personally and to be buying shares hand over fist, right?

这可是我得说的众多警示信号之一。

This is one of the many yellow flags I gotta say.

我的意思是，这属于赌一把的案子，对吧？

I mean, this is a hit or miss case, right?

我一开始就说过了。

I mentioned that in the beginning.

如果五年后Wix或者Base44还是无关紧要的小公司，那他们也没必要拼命挣扎了。

And if Wix or Base forty four are still just irrelevant in five years' time, they don't need to be striving.

但如果他们在当前的市场份额上根本无足轻重，我就想不通，股价怎么可能会不是从现在这个价位涨上好几倍。

But if they are just irrelevant in terms of market share that they currently have, I can't see how the stock is not a multibagger from these prices today.

但如果你跟我说，五年后他们可能根本就不存在了，我也不觉得意外。

But if you told me that they won't exist anymore in five years' time, I wouldn't be surprised either.

那我为什么这么说呢？

Now why do I say this?

现任公司创始人兼CEO阿比沙伊·亚伯拉罕尼，最清楚哪种情况更可能发生。

Abhishai Abrahami, the founder and CEO of the company right now, should know best which case is at least more likely.

在财报电话会上，他看起来信心十足。

And on earnings calls, he seems pretty confident.

那他为什么一点都不买股票呢？

So why is he not buying any stock?

他目前只持有公司大约1.5%的股份。

He owns about 1.5% of the company.

我不知道你怎么想，但我觉得，作为一个创办了20年的CEO，持有这么少的股份，实在有点低了。

And I don't know about you, but I think that's pretty low for a 20 founder, CEO of a public company.

最近很长一段时间，都没有任何内部人士大手笔买入股票。

There's been no major individual insider buying for quite some time now.

管理层很可能会拿他们已经实施的20亿美元股票回购来辩解，说这表明他们相信股价被低估了。

So management will likely defend this by pointing out to the $2,000,000,000 buyback that they've done and just kind of say, this is an expression of conviction in cheapness of the stock.

但说实话，如果看到他们当中有谁真金白银地买入，对我来说才是更强的信心信号。

But I don't know, personally, seeing one of them invest in my mind would be a greater signal of confidence for me.

而事实是，他们根本没这么做。

And the fact is they're not doing that.

管理层里没人买。

Nobody in the management team is.

再顺便提一下我们奥马哈头脑风暴讨论中的另一个观点：当你研究得太深入，反而容易被某种叙事带偏。

And, you know, dropping another one of our mastermind Omaha discussions, we also talked about how you can get lost in a narrative when you do too much work.

这其实我之前也提到过。

And that's what I mentioned before.

我觉得Wix恰恰就是这种情况的典型例子。

And I just feel like Wix is exactly a candidate for that.

如果你只想看一两件事来判断这是否合理， insider buying 其实就是最关键的那一个。

And if you just wanna look at, you know, one or two things that you can kind of see whether this makes sense to you, insider buying would actually be the one.

现在在 SaaS 领域，很多公司的首席执行官都在大量买入自家股票。

I mean, there are a lot of companies by now in the SaaS world where the CEOs are actually buying a lot of their stock.

对吧？

Right?

我们确实见过一些高管买入金额高达一亿美元的情况。

And, I mean, we've seen insular buys of about a $100,000,000 to some extent.

而像 Wix 这样股价这么便宜的公司，管理层却一点都没买，至少在我看来，这明显是个警示信号。

And the fact that this is not the case for a company trading this cheaply right now, at least to me, that's somewhat of a yellow flag, certainly.

你刚看到股价跌了 30%，也许接下来会有人开始买入。

You know, you've seen a 30% stock drop just recently, so maybe we will see some insider buys.

但我甚至觉得，在那之前，我宁愿先别急着参与这只股票。

But I would probably even say that before we do that, I would also wait with getting any type of engagement in this stock.

如果我想长期看多 Wix 和 Base44，我觉得可以把它们看作是一家支付或经纪公司。

And if I want to be bullish on Wix and also Base44 in the long term, I think you could argue that it's kind of like a payments or brokerage company.

我知道你不看好支付业务，但经纪服务可能稍微好一点。

I know you don't like payments, but maybe brokerages are a bit better.

这类行业的结构和运作模式是，虽然竞争优势不多，但一旦客户上了手，产品就特别难离开。

So basically, structure or the dynamic in those industries is that there are a few competitive advantages, but the product is just very sticky once you've onboarded a customer.

我觉得，眼下网站搭建工具正处在风暴中心，面临巨大冲击。

So I would argue that website builders are in the eye of the storm when it comes to disruption right now.

不过，Wix 已经拥有这么庞大的用户群，如果能把他们转化成 Base44 的客户，这才是最值得押注的地方。

But potentially, this huge customer base that Wix already has, then the ability to convert those to perhaps also be Base44 customers, that's the one thing I would double down on.

这是一场有算计的冒险。

It's a calculated gamble.

我正看着你的模型，确实，这一切都吻合得刚刚好。

I mean, I'm looking at your model here right now, and and that's exactly what this all looks like.

只要 Wix 的业务保持正常，未来五年公司大概能为股东带来每年超过 20% 的回报。

As long as things are business as usual for Wix, this company should return maybe 20% plus per year over the next five years to shareholders.

如果是乐观情景，这个数字很快就能冲到 40% 以上。

And in a bull case, I mean, can quickly imagine that number going up to above 40%.

但另一方面，如果是悲观情景，这个业务会遭到严重冲击，情况可能烂到极点，唯一能跌的底线就是股价归零。

But then on the other end, in a bear case, this is a business getting massively disrupted and there's really no floor to how bad things could be besides the stock just going to zero.

我的意思是，我们刚才讨论的那些假设，比如40%的增长，其实没那么难达到。

I mean, just going through some of the assumptions for what we talk about, you know, 40%, it doesn't take that much.

基准情景假设Wix未来几年的业务会略微放缓，而Base44的重要性逐渐上升，成为公司越来越大的组成部分，并最终主导整体收入增长。

I mean, the base case is assuming that the Wix business is slowing down slightly over the next few years, while Base forty four grows in importance and obviously, you know, it's a bigger part of the business and kind of starts dominating the revenue growth overall.

所以总体收入每年大约增长11%，主要靠Base44的推动。

So overall revenues would then grow about 11% per year, again, mostly through Base44 growth.

我预计到2030年，Base44的利润率能达到15%。

And I assume that in 2030, Base44's margins would be 15%.

不过，Wix的管理团队认为，他们最终能把利润率做到30%。

Again, Wix's management team thinks they should reach 30% eventually.

如果我用9倍的市盈率来算，这比现在翻了一倍，但说实话，对于一家年增速两位数的公司，9倍自由现金流并不算高估。

And if I then apply a multiple of nine, which, to be fair, is a double from today, but also I feel like nine times free cash flow for a company growing double digits, it's not unreasonable to assume that.

再用10%的折现率，比我们通常用的8%高一点，毕竟这里风险确实更大，再加上20%的安全边际，这样算下来回报率大概就是20%，跟你之前说的一样。

And then you use a discount rate of 10%, which is higher than the 8% we usually use, but, you know, there's certainly increased risk here, and a margin of 20%, that would give you a return of about 20%, as you said.

而在悲观情景下，我预计Wix的核心业务会遭遇更严重的下滑，而Base44根本无法弥补这个缺口。

And then in the bear case, I expect a significantly more severe downturn in Wix's core business, and that Base44 basically won't be able to fill the gap.

所以，也许应用还在增长，但速度不够快，你也看不到它的利润率能足以替代Wix这个原本利润高得多的核心业务。

So perhaps you have the app growing, but it's not growing fast enough, and you also don't see the margin to actually replace this significantly more profitable core business in Wix.

如果要量化的话，那么收入只会以2%的速度增长，利润率则会急剧萎缩。

So if you wanna put numbers on it, revenues then only go at 2% and margins basically collapse.

正如你所说，如果真是这样，Wix的股价就没了任何支撑。

And, you know, if that's the case, as you said, there is no bottom for Wix stock.

它没有任何实物资产。

You have no physical assets.

这只股票没有任何有形价值。

There's no tangible value in this stock.

我可以想象，过程中赚到的现金要么用来回购股票，要么在那时被重新投入已经陷入困境的Base44业务中。

And I could imagine that the cash that would be earned along the way would either be spent on buybacks or perhaps it's reinvested into the failing business of of Base forty four at that point.

而说到乐观情景——毕竟总得有个乐观情景——如果你假设Wix能继续保持当前的势头，同时Base44在未来五年每年实现50%的增长。

And, you know, then in the bull case, because we always need a bull case, if you assume that Wix keeps cruising like it is right now, but Base forty four is achieving a growth rate of 50% annually for the next five years.

我知道这听起来很多，但眼下，它每12周就增长50%。

I know that sounds like a lot, but again, right now, it's growing 50% every 12 weeks.

我还预计利润率会更快扩张，到2030年达到20%，自由现金流倍数达到15倍。说实话，要让Wix的自由现金流倍数冲到15倍，市场对AI的担忧必须完全消散才行。

I also expect a faster margin expansion reaching 20% in 2030 and free cash flow multiple of 15, which to be fair, like, to reach a 15x multiple on free cash flow for Wix, all of the AI fear has to be gone, basically.

需要一个叙事上的转变：从‘Wix是AI的受害者’变成‘Wix通过Base44成为AI的赢家’。

It's kind of need a narrative change from Wix is a victim of AI to Wix is a winner of AI through Base 44.

到那时候，你才可以说，这种估值扩张确实有其道理。

And you'll that's when I would say you could argue that some of this multiple expansion is certainly justified.

如果这一切都成真，Wix将成为一只十倍股。

If all of this happens, Wix will be a multibagger.

让我补充一句，在这种情况下，我们有时会把它们称为悲观情景、中性情景。

And let me say that in this case, you know, sometimes we label them as like bare case, base case.

你可能会觉得这些情景发生的概率相等，或者你只是默认中性情景最有可能发生。

And you could think that we think each of them is either equally likely, or maybe you just assume that the base case is the most likely.

也许中性情景确实最有可能，但我个人认为，悲观情景有40%的可能性，中性情景也有40%，而乐观情景则是20%。

Perhaps it is the most likely, but I would certainly say that probably I would even say that in this case, would give the bear case a possibility of 40%, the base case also a possibility of 40%, and in the bull case, a possibility of 20%.

所以我觉得你的看法更接近我假设的下限。

So I certainly think that you are closer to the lower end of my assumptions here.

但如果你没猜错，哪怕只是基线情景，回报也会非常可观。

But if you're not, you will have a huge payout even just in the base case.

让我觉得不可思议的是，我们讨论的这家公司，收购这笔资产还不到一年。

Incredible thing to me here is that we're talking about a company that made an acquisition less than a year ago or about a year ago.

而他们当初收购的这个小项目，现在居然成了公司未来增长的核心支柱。

And now that small acquisition that they made is basically the premise of the entire company's future growth.

对吧？

Right?

两年前，Base 44 和 Wix 还一点关系都没有。

Two years ago, Base forty four had no connection to Wix.

现在却说 Base 44 是拯救这家公司的关键。

And now we're talking about Base forty four as being the savior for the company.

所以，如果 Base 44 的表现如预期，这将成为资本配置史上的一次经典成功。

And so on one hand, if things go well with Base forty four, this will be like an all time capital allocation, you know, success.